REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Sunday, April 28, 2024 02:14
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PAGE 116 of 127

Thursday, February 8, 2024 6:55 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

If Ukraine committed to not being in NATO, if NATO committed to not creating a "security agreement" with Ukraine, if Ukraine were to be a neutral nation likee Austria, the war would end tomorrow.

But NATO (i.e. the USA) can't agree to let Russia alone.

I was reminded what set this all off.
You have repeated Putin's tired old stories many times. When Putin dies, storytime ends and Russia goes back to being like North Korea threatening its neighbors with nukes, but not crossing into neighboring countries.

Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued his nuclear saber-rattling rhetoric likely aimed in part at deterring Western aid to Ukraine. Medvedev claimed on February 7 that Russia has repeatedly “underscored” that it’s “plans” do not include any conflict “with NATO and EU member states.”[12] Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, have recently and consistently rhetorically threatened NATO member states, and Kremlin-affiliated actors appear to be attempting to sow instability and set information conditions for possible future Russian aggressive actions against various European states.[13]

Medvedev stated that NATO’s military budget and population are significantly larger than Russia’s, so that if a war were to break out between Russia and NATO, Russia would have to respond “asymmetrically” by using “ballistic and cruise missiles carrying special warheads” — referring to nuclear warheads — resulting in an “apocalypse.” Medvedev posted these claims on his English language X (formerly Twitter) channel and Russian language Telegram channel, suggesting that his statements are meant for both an international and domestic audience.

Kremlin officials and pundits have consistently threatened to use nuclear weapons against NATO members, and ISW continues to assess that this nuclear rhetoric is aimed at deterring Western aid to Ukraine.[14] Medvedev‘s statements about NATO’s larger size and military budget relative to Russia are likely aimed at domestically promoting Kremlin narratives that NATO — and the West generally — poses an existential threat to Russia — a claim the Kremlin has used to try to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[15]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-7-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 7:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
You have written that almost as frequently as Trump will be President. I can see why you flunked out of college, lost your girlfriend, live on $7,000 per year, and obsessively work on repairing your house, seldom leaving its protection from reality. You are a gopher in a hole in the ground, but with internet to connect you to Trump.

Russia simply can’t win a war against Europe. The mathematics are inexorable

Even if the US pulls out, Putin would be crazy to start something

By Andrew Lilico | 6 February 2024 • 1:36pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/06/russia-war-europe-nato-eu-
ukraine-economics/

Consider two opposed countries. One has a larger population; the other has higher GDP. To create matching militaries, in terms of personnel and equipment, the country with the larger population need only devote a smaller percentage of its population to the military, but must devote a higher share of its GDP.

Suppose, instead, that the two countries devoted equal shares of personnel and GDP, and thus the more populous country had more personnel but they were less well-equipped, so each soldier is less effective – eg in killing opponents. In that case we can gain insight from an ingenious piece of military mathematics worked out during World War I: the “square law”. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA225484.pdf (. . . “presents the results of the statistical analysis and suggests that an exponential law is more appropriate” than square law.)

This tells us that, in pure attrition terms, if one military force is more numerous than another but less effective, then in order to win, the ratio of the smaller military’s effectiveness advantages needs to be greater than the square of the ratio of its numerical disadvantage. So, for example, that means that if you have 10 percent fewer troops, your troops need to be more than 21 percent more effective to win an attrition-based war.

The proportion of the population that different countries can mobilise to fight might differ. An authoritarian state might be able to conscript more of its population to fight. But an authoritarian state might also have what we might term a “morale” disadvantage – its forces might become unable or unwilling to fight at a lower loss rate than would be the case for forces fighting for what they regard as a more noble cause. On the other side there are those that would argue that some democratic liberal countries have become sufficiently self-hating or decadent that they do not regard their own cause as noble enough to fight for.

Let’s apply some of these insights to a consideration of Russia’s medium-term threat to the EU. The Russian economy is about 10 percent of the size of the EU’s. The EU spends about 1.3 percent of GDP on its military and the Russians have recently raised their spending to about 6 percent. So EU military spending will be about twice that of Russia. If we assume spending more produces greater troop effectiveness, then by the square law, to compensate for spending half as much, Russia would need to mobilise more than 40 percent more troops than the EU that it was able to devote to battle, if Russian forces continued to be able to fight at the same loss percentages that EU troops were. The EU’s combined militaries have about 1.4 million troops. So Russia would need to have around 2 million troops available in an attrition war. If we assume Russia would be attacking, and apply the classical rule of thumb that attacking forces need a 1.5:1 advantage across a theatre, Russia would need about three million. Russia has around 1.2 million troops at present, but notionally around 2 million reservists.

If the above analysis is correct, then, in the medium term, even setting aside any “morale” differences, in order to have a chance against a combined EU (and thus be in any position to threaten Britain) Russia would need either to double or triple its current military forces or roughly double or triple its military spending relative to GDP. A doubling of its expenditure relative to GDP would put it in the 12-15 percent range of the late Soviet Union – the level that caused the Soviet economy to collapse in the 1980s. A tripling would be even more crippling.

Doubling or tripling its military spending again would bankrupt it withing a few years. Russia can posture, and it can threaten or even invade its small, poor, neighbours. But the maths say that when it comes to threatening the EU, let alone Britain, if we in the West continue to believe in our causes enough to fight if it comes to it, Russia simply lacks sufficient economic resources to constitute a serious medium-term threat at all.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 7:54 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


It is time for the Ukrainian army to pull out of the ruins of Avdiivka.

Ukraine’s Fortress City Held For A Decade. But Russia Was Willing To Trade Tens Of Thousands Of Lives For It.

By David Axe | Feb 7, 2024, 05:15pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/07/ukraines-fortress-cit
y-held-for-a-decade-but-russia-was-willing-to-trade-tens-of-thousands-of-lives-for-it/?sh=941335a54bfa

For 10 years since Russia first attacked Ukraine, Ukrainian troops held out in Avdiivka, a city with a pre-war population of 30,000 that lies just five miles northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

But now it’s time for the Ukrainians to pull back, according to one Ukrainian analysis group. “The fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when,” Frontelligence Insight explained in a new report.

There are very few civilians left in Avdiivka’s ruins, and rescuers are working to get them and their pets out of the city. Which is not to say Ukraine stands to lose nothing by pulling the army’s 110th Mechanized Brigade—which has garrisoned Avdiivka since Russia widened its war on Ukraine 23 months ago—from the city.

There’s propaganda value for both sides in either holding or taking Avdiivka. Russian president Vladimir Putin surely would enjoy the ruins as a gift ahead of his sham re-election next month.

But Avdiivka has actual military value, too. It’s one of Russia’s main objectives to fully control Donetsk Oblast—and to prevent Ukraine from ever liberating the oblast. That means eliminating pockets of resistance such as Avdiivka while also digging in and firming up local logistics.

From Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops can threaten the railways in Donetsk, forcing the Russians to find alternate—and less efficient—ways to ship people and materiel around eastern Ukraine.

If the survivors of the 110th Brigade’s 2,000 troops quit Avdiivka and retreat to prepared positions several miles to the west, it becomes much harder for them and adjacent forces to hold at threat Russian supply lines threading through Donetsk. That in turn firms up Russia’s occupation in the east.

All the same, it may be time. The 110th’s troops have fought a valiant defense for four months straight, without a break, bleeding a 40,000-person Russian force for every yard the Russians gained. The Ukrainian army’s 47th and 53rd Brigades have helped, by defending Avdiivka’s flanks with drones, mines, artillery and—in the 47th’s case—American-made M-2 fighting vehicles.

Since launching their latest campaign against Avdiikva back in October, the Russians likely have lost tens of thousands of troops, killed or maimed, as well as many hundreds of tanks and fighting vehicles. At times, it was possible the loss ratio—Russian casualties to Ukrainian ones—was seven-to-one or even 10-to-one in the Ukrainians’ favor.

But that was earlier in the campaign, when the Ukrainians’ supply lines into Avdiivka weren’t threatened by incremental Russian advances along the city’s flanks and, as of late January, Russian incursions directly into the city from the north and south.

Now the Russians are just a few hundred yards from the main roads into Avdiivka, and can strike Ukrainian supply trucks with handheld weapons.

It’s a turning point. One Ukrainians veterans have observed before. In May last year, in a grinding battle not dissimilar to that in Avdiivka, a Ukrainian garrison held out for months in the ruins of Bakhmut. They killed as many as 10 Russians for ever person they lost—until the Russians traded blood for ground and pinched the city’s supply lines.

Running low on ammunition, the Ukrainians in Bakhmut lost their advantage. “Once Russian forces managed to seize Ukrainian flanks and disrupt supply routes, the casualty rates almost equaled,” Frontelligence recalled.

Waiting too long to retreat from Bakhmut, Ukrainian commanders partially surrendered their attrition advantage and—in the process—lost credibility with the Ukrainian public.

The lives the generals wasted at the end of the Bakhmut campaign still haunt Ukraine, according to Frontelligence. “The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts, known for deploying careless frontal assaults.”

And that, in turn, has weighed on Kyiv’s effort to mobilize hundreds of thousands of fresh recruits in order to sustain the war effort into its third—and likely fourth—year. “The enthusiasm of people to voluntarily join the troops is waning,” Frontelligence warned.

If commanders quit Avdiivka before the Russians further close their pincers around the city, they could save hundreds of lives—and preserve their credibility.

A tactical retreat need not lead to a wider strategic loss. With the right weapons and—equally importantly—adequate ammunition, the Ukrainians could retreat from Avdiikva, consolidate their positions a few miles to the west and yet still strike Russian supply lines through Donetsk.

“Timely aid from the West is pivotal to avert crossing irreversible thresholds,” Frontelligence asserted. With more and better artillery and rocket-launchers as well as long-range aerial munitions and warplanes to launch them, Ukrainian forces could strike Russian supply lines from farther away and actually improve their situation in the east even after surrendering Avdiivka’s ruins to the Russians.

The problem, of course, is that Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress for four months now have refused to vote on $61 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine—aid that could pay for a lot of long-range firepower.

The Republicans’ intransigence accelerated Avdiivka’s likely fall by depriving the 110th Brigade of vital ammunition. These same Republicans can’t resurrect the brigade’s dead, but they at least could atone for betraying the defenders of Avdiivka by belatedly approving aid—and helping the Ukrainians to reposition for the ongoing fight.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 8:23 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Trump’s already back and America has ditched Ukraine

February 8, 2024 4:01 am CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-joe-biden-united-states-su
pport-ukraine-trump-return/

BERLIN — During a visit to Washington this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is likely to find that Donald Trump has already returned — at least in terms of U.S. policy toward Europe's worst strategic nightmare in Ukraine.

Scholz arrives just as Republicans in Congress, acting at Trump’s behest, are blocking military aid for Kyiv, imperiling the fate of the embattled country.

The Washington setback comes as Ukraine's frontline troops complain of ammunition shortages, and as Russian forces make a major push to capture the shattered ruins of the city of Avdiivka.

It's a particularly grim scenario for the Germans, who fear they will now be on the hook as Kyiv's main champion — a role they never wanted, preferring the part of Washington's sidekick.

“The discussions between the House of Representatives and the Senate on funding support for Ukraine is of course a topic that we are following particularly closely,” a senior German government official said ahead of Scholz’s trip.

That, to put it mildly, is an understatement. Since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago, the U.S. has been the largest provider of military aid to Kyiv by a wide margin. With that support now on hold, and little assurance it will resume soon, the world has been upended for Ukraine's European allies.

Germany and Europe have a lot more riding on Ukraine’s survival than the U.S. does.

European leaders fear that if Putin wins in Ukraine and Trump returns to the presidency, countries like Latvia or Moldova might be next.

Discussing that prospect, a senior European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, recently told POLITICO and other media outlets: “These are the things that keep me up at night.” (Why the anonymity? All European cheese-eating surrender monkeys will do no more than overeat cheese to make themselves feel better about Ukraine's downfall.)

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 8:33 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
You have written that almost as frequently as Trump will be President.


Yes. I have.

Quote:
I can see why you flunked out of college,


Dropped out of college and did better than most Americans will ever do.

Quote:
lost your girlfriend,


Everybody's lost girlfriends.

Quote:
live on $7,000 per year,


Zero shame. This is a source of great pride.

Quote:
and obsessively work on repairing your house,


It comes and goes. If I obsessively worked on it, it only would have taken me a few years instead of going on 13.

Quote:
seldom leaving its protection from reality.


Reality is overrated when you own your own castle free and clear.

Quote:
You are a gopher in a hole in the ground, but with internet to connect you to Trump.


And yet I have very little knowledge of anything Trump is doing or saying on any given day because I'm not the one here who obsesses over Trump and his daily goings on.

That would be you, buddy.




Fuck Russia.

Trump will be fine.

He will also be your next President.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 8:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Quote:
I can see why you flunked out of college,


Dropped out of college and did better than most Americans will ever do.
You are like every Trumptard, bragging about your nothingness. The first Trumptard I knew was Joe Duncan in 1962, before Trump was out of high school. Joe was around 45 years old, a pilot for Eastern Airlines, red-faced, and never sober when home. A big blowhard like you about his "successful" life. Joe was the most unpleasant asshole I knew as a 10-year-old. His greediness and bad temper caused his marriages to end and his children to avoid him. But he didn't get fired from Eastern. In 1965 he choked on a chicken bone and died. Good riddance. I have seen thousands of Trumptards since then. They are all screwed up in the head. When I follow their stories, the ending is stupid and early in life, just like Joe Duncan's, possibly because they cannot believe they are the cause of their problems, not their wives' fault or their employers' or their children's or the government's fault.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 8:55 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Quote:
I can see why you flunked out of college,


Dropped out of college and did better than most Americans will ever do.
You are like every Trumptard, bragging about your nothingness.


It ain't bragging if it's true.

If you don't want me to talk about how awesome I am, you should probably start sticking to the political topics at hand and stop bringing my personal life into everything because you can't ever win an argument with facts.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 9:17 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

It ain't bragging if it's true.

If you don't want me to talk about how awesome I am, you should probably start sticking to the political topics at hand and stop bringing my personal life into everything because you can't ever win an argument with facts.
Trumptards don't realize they screwed up, but it is inevitable because the same brain makes their political and personal choices. I knew all about Trumptard Joe Duncan's political opinions and his drunken life. Joe is the reason I never drink and continue despising his political beliefs which live on without him. 6ix, too bad you didn't have a Joe Duncan's poor example teaching you about alcohol and politics. You've had to learn very slowly over many years what was immediately obvious to 10-year-old me about alcohol and people who vote Republican.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 9:26 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

It ain't bragging if it's true.

If you don't want me to talk about how awesome I am, you should probably start sticking to the political topics at hand and stop bringing my personal life into everything because you can't ever win an argument with facts.
Trumptards don't realize they screwed up, but it is inevitable because the same brain makes their political and personal choices. I knew all about Trumptard Joe Duncan's political opinions and his drunken life. Joe is the reason I never drink and continue despising his political beliefs which live on without him. 6ix, too bad you didn't have a Joe Duncan's poor example teaching you about alcohol and politics. You've had to learn very slowly over many years what was immediately obvious to 10-year-old me about alcohol and people who vote Republican.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



You don't see me crying over spilled milk.

You should worry about yourself. Nobody else is going to do it because you're the only person who cares about you. You are unlovable. You are miserable. You are a waste of carbon.

Have a nice day. I've no more time to waste on you this morning.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, February 8, 2024 11:48 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SECOND doesn't obsess over what Putin says, or what Trump says, or what "Trumptards" say or do.

He obsesses over his DELUSIONS, polishing those turds to a brilliant shine.

Hey, SECOND, how did you get Ukraine so wrong? Russia is winning. Ukraine will be destroyed and NATO will be reduced to fomenting terrorist actions in Russia, just like we armed and funded terrorists in Syria, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Libya ... El Salvador (except there we called them "death squads")... we have been reduced to destroying nations like Yugoslavia and Iraq because we don't have the capacity to protect and build.

And you, SECOND, are an epitome of that hate and destruction. That's all you know, and that's all you advocate, 24/7/365.

How about putting some "real world" into that brain of yours? Yanno, stop obsessively posting hate, emerge from your dark inner world and get out in the sunshine once in a while? Do something useful for a change?


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Thursday, February 8, 2024 11:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND doesn't obsess over what Putin says, or what Trump says, or what "Trumptards" say or do.

He obsesses over his DELUSIONS, polishing those turds to a brilliant shine.


He obsesses over me too.

I still think the dude is madly in love with me.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, February 9, 2024 5:45 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND doesn't obsess over what Putin says, or what Trump says, or what "Trumptards" say or do.

He obsesses over his DELUSIONS, polishing those turds to a brilliant shine.

Hey, SECOND, how did you get Ukraine so wrong? Russia is winning. Ukraine will be destroyed and NATO will be reduced to fomenting terrorist actions in Russia, just like we armed and funded terrorists in Syria, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Libya ... El Salvador (except there we called them "death squads")... we have been reduced to destroying nations like Yugoslavia and Iraq because we don't have the capacity to protect and build.

And you, SECOND, are an epitome of that hate and destruction. That's all you know, and that's all you advocate, 24/7/365.

How about putting some "real world" into that brain of yours? Yanno, stop obsessively posting hate, emerge from your dark inner world and get out in the sunshine once in a while? Do something useful for a change?
Signym, I don't know how this war ends, but somehow you know for certain that Russia wins. How do you know? Could it be Putin's talking points that convinced you? But he is not an orator. More an indefatigable blabbermouth. But so is Trump. And yet both Putin and Trump can emotionally manipulate a subspecies of homo sapiens called Trumptards in America and Putin's people in Russia who know in their hearts that Trump will win in America and Putin will win in Ukraine.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 5:47 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to use an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson published on February 8 to present to a wider Western audience a long-standing Kremlin information operation that falsely asserts that Russia is interested in a negotiated end to its war in Ukraine. https://tuckercarlson.com/the-vladimir-putin-interview/

Putin illustrated throughout the interview that Russia has no interest in meaningful or legitimate negotiations, however, and that Putin still seeks to destroy Ukraine as a state. Putin also displayed his overarching hostility towards the West and falsely accused the West of forcing Russia to attack Ukraine. Putin repeatedly stressed that Russia is open to negotiations in order to falsely frame Russia as a reasonable actor and “Western ruling elites” as the main obstruction to a negotiation.[2] Putin also repeatedly reiterated a Russian information operation alleging that Western officials coerced Ukraine to reject an agreement favorable to Russia during negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul in March 2022.[3] Western leaders, in fact, offered to help President Volodymyr Zelensky escape Kyiv in the days immediately following the invasion, and Zelensky responded that he needed “ammunition, not a ride.”[4]

The Kremlin routinely frames the West as the only meaningful negotiating party in Ukraine as part of its effort to gain Western acceptance of its premise that Ukraine has no independent agency in order to secure concessions from the West on Ukraine’s behalf that undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and destroy Ukraine’s territorial integrity.[5] The Kremlin has periodically intensified this information operation feigning interest in negotiations to seize on actual Western interest in a negotiated settlement to undermine Western support for Ukraine and degrade Western efforts to send more security assistance to Ukraine.[6] Putin and the Kremlin have intensified rhetoric in recent weeks indicating that Russia continues to pursue maximalist objectives in Ukraine that ISW assesses would amount to full Ukrainian and Western capitulation.[7] ISW continues to assess that Putin’s negotiating position has not changed: He still seeks the destruction of Ukraine and seeks to use an armistice to set favorable condition for the Russian military to launch a subsequent more successful war against Ukraine.

Putin also attempted to use the interview to absurdly reframe Russia as the wronged party and not the initiator of Russia’s unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine. Putin falsely claimed that Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” started the war in Ukraine in 2014 and that Russia’s full-scale invasion is an attempt to bring that war to an end.[8] Putin repeated tired Russian rhetoric presenting Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in Donbas in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a defensive campaign aimed at protecting Russian people and the Russia nation. This ongoing information operation is meant to obfuscate the obvious fact that Russia launched a war of aggression against its neighbor in 2022 in order to confuse Western memories of what actually happened. Putin’s revisionism also aims to bolster long-standing Kremlin narratives justifying his maximalist goals in Ukraine.

Putin continued attempts to justify Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 as responses to Ukraine’s and the West’s actions in order to defend his long-standing calls for regime change in Kyiv and Ukraine’s “demilitarization,” “denazification,” and “neutrality.” Putin falsely claimed that a US-backed “coup” in Ukraine in 2014 forced Russia to invade Crimea and begin military operations in Donbas in 2014.[9] Putin falsely claimed that Ukraine initiated a military operation in the Donbas starting in 2014 and that Ukraine failed to implement the Minsk Agreements establishing the armistice that Putin broke in February 2022. Putin accused NATO of exploiting Ukraine in order to build military bases in Ukraine under the guise of training the Ukrainian military. There have not been and still are no NATO military bases in Ukraine. These narratives are aimed at buttressing Putin’s long-standing calls for Ukraine’s “demilitarization,” which are likely aimed at stripping Ukraine of the means to defend itself and allowing Russia to impose its will upon Ukraine through force whenever the Kremlin so chooses. Putin also reiterated that one of Russia’s war aims is to “denazify” Ukraine. Putin defined “denazification” as the prohibition of all neo-Nazi movements in Ukraine and the removal of people who support Nazi ideology. Putin specifically highlighted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an alleged supporter of Nazi ideology, further indication that Putin’s calls for Ukraine's “denazification” are in fact demands for the removal of the current elected Ukrainian government and its replacement with one acceptable to the Kremlin, as ISW has long assessed.[10] Putin continued to call for Ukrainian “neutrality” and argued that Russia cannot trust any NATO statements about the alliance not allowing Ukraine to become a member.[11] Putin continued to claim that NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Declaration, which promised Ukraine and Georgia paths to membership but took no concrete steps towards opening such paths, violated Ukraine’s 1991 Declaration of Independence that declared that Ukraine is a neutral state. The Russian Federation, however, had committed “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine,” which include Crimea and Donbas, in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in exchange for Ukraine’s return of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons on its territory to Russia.[12] The Budapest Memorandum guarantees Ukraine all sovereign rights, which include the right for Ukraine to choose its own alignment.

Putin continued to propagate pseudo-history in an effort to deny Ukrainian statehood and nationhood. Putin reiterated long-standing Russian information operations to deny the existence of Ukrainian statehood and identity. Putin claimed that Ukrainians fundamentally do not exist as a nation and that Ukrainians are truly Russians whom various political actors reinvented as Ukrainians to erode Russia’s ability to control Russia’s borderlands with other Eastern and Central European powers. Putin rewrote centuries of history to this effect. Putin has routinely denied Ukrainian sovereignty, statehood, and identity in order to frame Russia’s full-scale invasion as an attempt to return historically Russian lands to Russia and as a humanitarian effort to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speakers whom Russia calls “compatriots abroad.”[13] Putin has also regularly and intentionally misused the definition of “ethnic Russian” to erroneously include Ukrainians in order to promote the larger concept of the wider Russian World (Russkiy Mir) to justify Russia’s maximalist claims over Ukraine and its people and its larger imperialist ambitions.[14] None of Putin’s rewriting of history justifies Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The borders of every state in the world have changed over time. International law, which Putin claims to seek to uphold, requires the recognition by all states of each other’s sovereign rights in their territories as recognized by other sovereign states. The Russian Federation has explicitly recognized Ukraine’s sovereignty over its current international borders twice—in 1991 and in 1994. Accepting Putin’s argument for Russia’s right to redesign Ukraine’s borders to his liking by force is an invitation to all powerful states with historical grievances to attack and seize the lands of their neighbors that they covet.

Putin also reiterated a quasi-realist world view that defines weakening the West and dismantling NATO as pre-requisites for the Russian-led multipolar world he desires to create. Putin consistently framed NATO’s expansion and existence as threatening to Russia and any future Russian- and Chinese-led global order.[15] Putin claimed that world affairs develop according to “inherent laws” that have not changed throughout history wherein a country grows and becomes large and powerful before leaving the international stage without the prestige it once had. Putin implicitly analogized the current Western-led world order with the Mongol and Roman empires, which he presented as examples of hegemonic powers that were eventually conquered by other rising powers. Putin stated that while it took several hundreds of years for the Roman Empire to fall apart, current processes of change are happening at a faster rate. Putin is increasingly invoking a purposefully broad, vague, and pseudo-realist conception of Russian sovereignty to normalize wars of conquest and justify Russian goals to impose Putin’s will in Ukraine and beyond.[16] Putin has long made demands of NATO that would recreate the alliance into a structure that could not resist future Russian military aggression, whether that be campaigns of conquest or efforts to establish Russian control over countries the Kremlin deems to be within Russia’s sphere of influence.[17]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-8-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 7:12 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Ukraine risks critical shortage of western ammunition, officials warn

Congressional delays create a ‘hole in the hose’ of supplies needed on the battlefield

By Henry Foy in Brussels, Felicia Schwartz in Washington and Christopher Miller in Kyiv | Feb 8, 2024

https://www.ft.com/content/6594e548-8b2e-4c95-a589-7d9e358062d2

Ukraine faces a critical gap in western artillery ammunition needed to withstand Russian attacks, officials have warned, as US assistance runs out and Europe fails to hit its own targets for increased arms production.

Kyiv has already been struggling to hold back Russia’s troops along a 1,500km active frontline, with Ukrainian forces rationing stockpiles and firing only about a third of the number of rounds they need each day to maintain their position.

Further aggravating their situation is the failure in Washington to pass $60bn in military and financial aid, which means most American shipments are at an effective pause, while a promised European ramp-up of production has not been fast enough, according to US and European officials.

The congressional delay risked creating an “airbubble” or “gap in the hose” of supplies to Kyiv, said a senior US military official. 

The US Senate on Thursday voted to move forward with more debate over a new bill to send $60bn in additional funds to Ukraine, giving some hope of a last-gasp breakthrough to secure more lethal aid, but Congress’s backing remains far from certain.

Western officials have warned that the coming months will stretch Ukraine’s ability to fight with fewer resources, with Russia already exploiting the resource advantage to make gains in key locations such as around the strategic town of Avdiivka.

“This is really as grave as we have been portraying it,” a US defence official said, noting that the US had run out of money to fund new weapons contracts for Ukraine or funds that would allow the Pentagon to take inventory from its stockpiles and replenish those stocks.

“My take is that this is a very grim scenario,” the defence official said, adding that the Pentagon was particularly concerned about maintaining Ukrainians’ air defence systems and ammunition supplies.

National security adviser of the United States Jake Sullivan said there was ‘no alternative’ to the scale of resources that the US could offer.

“It is a desperate situation on the front lines for the Ukrainians, far worse than they are letting on,” said a senior Nato diplomat.

Nearly two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Moscow’s superior ammunition and manpower has forced Ukraine to adopt a strategy of “active defence” this year, after a much-vaunted counteroffensive in 2023 failed to make a significant breakthrough.

The risk of a gap in military assistance was “the main concern” for the first half of this year, a senior European diplomat said, warning that even holding on to current positions would be hard for Ukrainians to achieve.

“It will not be easy for the Europeans to substitute for the US. That’s not entirely realistic,” said one senior European diplomat. “Can [the EU] be enough if the US changes course of its direction? I’m not sure.”

President Joe Biden acknowledged the problem this week, saying the US was the “essential nation”. His national security adviser Jake Sullivan added on Wednesday that there was “no alternative” to the scale of resources that the US could offer — if Congress authorises more spending on Ukraine aid.

The European diplomat expressed concerns when “discussing the tactical situation” with Ukrainian commanders who were aware “they will suffer?.?.?.?and it will be very hard for them to make advances”.

The EU had pledged to send 1mn 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine in the 12 months to March, but has admitted that it will fail to hit that target. Officials now say that they will reach a new target of expanding its 155mm production capacity to 1.4mn shells by the end of 2024.

“The old truism still holds true — the side with the most ammunition to fight usually wins,” wrote Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s defence minister, in a letter to Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, sent late last month and seen by the FT.

“The shortage is increasing day by day,” he wrote. “The enemy’s ability to outshoot the Armed Forces of Ukraine by more than 3:1 is only getting worse.”

Umerov said that Ukraine’s “absolute critical daily minimum requirement” was 6,000 artillery shells, but his forces were currently only able to fire 2,000 each day.

Borrell responded in a speech to Ukraine’s parliament this week: “I know that on ammunition your needs are higher than [Europe can provide]. I have been talking with your military staff, and I know that you need more.”

Nowhere along the active frontline is the shortage of western artillery felt more acutely than in Avdiivka. Russian forces have recently launched a fresh wave of assaults on the industrial Ukrainian town that serves as a gateway to nearby Donetsk, the Russian-held strategic regional centre.

For months Russia has deployed brutal meat grinder-style tactics in its assaults on the city, leading to an average of 1,000 dead and injured Russian troops each day.

This week, Russian soldiers entered the town limits, entrenched themselves, and began tightening their noose around Ukrainian forces, according to Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian military journalist embedded with troops in Avdiivka.

“Ammunition?.?.?.?and supplies are also extremely limited, the enemy has a great advantage in means of destruction,” he wrote on Telegram.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program said that Kyiv “faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry?.?.?. The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine’s disadvantage will grow”.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 8:36 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


European Lawmakers Issue Dire Warnings Over Stalled Ukraine Aid Package

“If you don’t want another Pearl Harbor, you better listen to us,” cautioned one Lithuanian politician.

By Amy Mackinnon | Feb 8, 2024

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/08/europe-ukraine-aid-package-warnin
g-war-russia/

European lawmakers are issuing increasingly bleak warnings about the future of the war in Ukraine and the continent’s security as a $60 billion U.S. aid package for Kyiv continues to languish on Capitol Hill and the war is set to enter its third year later this month.

European lawmakers are issuing increasingly bleak warnings about the future of the war in Ukraine and the continent’s security as a $60 billion U.S. aid package for Kyiv continues to languish on Capitol Hill and the war is set to enter its third year later this month.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Washington has welcomed a steady stream of lawmakers, government ministers, and heads of state from Europe amid transatlantic efforts to coordinate military and humanitarian support for Ukraine. But there has been a palpable ratcheting up in the intensity and urgency of their message.

“You can’t help but wonder what has happened here. We seem to have drifted apart,” said Diljá Mist Einarsdóttir, chair of the Icelandic parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.

Einarsdóttir and a delegation of six other chairs of the parliamentary foreign affairs committees of the Baltic and Nordic states spoke with a small group of journalists on Thursday morning as the U.S. Senate voted to advance a stand-alone aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. It remains unclear whether the bill will be able to garner enough votes to pass the Senate and House.

A bipartisan effort to combine the aid with an immigration reform package was shot down by Senate Republicans on Wednesday evening after former U.S. President Donald Trump urged his party to reject the legislation.

“Dear Republican Senators of America,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, following the vote. “Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you.”

Dire warnings from European lawmakers come as Ukraine has stalled on the battlefield and Russia is making significant investments in defense spending and production. In the early days of the war, Moscow appeared to be on the back foot as its economy was pummeled with international sanctions and its armed forces struggled through a poorly planned invasion.

But two years on, the Russian economy is projected to grow, albeit marginally, in the coming year fueled by a significant boost in defense spending. One-third of the country’s state budget has been allocated for defense in 2024, and arms manufacturers have been urged to work around the clock.

“If we cannot manage, together with the U.S., to stop Russia in Ukraine, it’s a matter of time if it is a war against NATO in general, and that will be much higher cost,” said Aron Emilsson, chair of the Swedish parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.

Emilsson’s Latvian counterpart, Rihards Kols, said he was struck by the lack of urgency in Washington about the war. “I got the notion that the war in Ukraine is something very far away, distant from the U.S.,” said Kols, who noted that by comparison, Latvian public discourse had been dominated by the possibility of a wider war.

Last month, top military officials in Sweden and the United Kingdom warned their populations to prepare for a potential war.

Zygimantas Pavilionis, chair of the Lithuanian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, who has made several trips to Washington since the beginning of the war, said that the reception he and his colleagues get on Capitol Hill is “getting worse with every visit.” Pavilionis, like many lawmakers and officials from the Baltic states, sought to sound the alarm about Russia’s revanchist intentions long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “Our argument is simple: If you don’t want another Pearl Harbor, you better listen to us,” he said.

Ahead of this week’s visit, the delegation reached out to the offices of around 20 congressional Republicans who have to varying degrees been skeptical of U.S. aid for Ukraine. Just three offices responded, Kols said.

The visit follows a trip by the chairs of the parliamentary foreign affairs committees from six NATO member states last month who brought a similarly stark message. “The reality is the U.S. also needs a wake-up call,” said Alicia Kearns, chair of the U.K. Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Select Committee, the Hill reported.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also in Washington this week and is set to meet with President Joe Biden and members of Congress to make the case for continued support to Ukraine. In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, he laid out his case about the dangers of a Russian victory.

“We have to do our utmost to prevent Russia from winning. If we don’t, we might soon wake up in a world even more unstable, threatening and unpredictable than it was during the Cold War,” he wrote.

The United States has provided more than $75 billion in aid to Kyiv since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, of which $46 billion has been military support. Analysts have warned that a collapse in U.S. support would deal a significant blow to Ukraine.

“We are not able to fill the gap if the U.S. pulls out,” said Ine Eriksen Soreide, chair of the Norwegian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, who stressed that there would be wide-ranging ramifications if Russia were to emerge victorious. “If [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wins the war, it would embolden him; it would embolden China; it would embolden Iran; it would embolden [North Korea],” Soreide said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 1:05 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


"The froth and hyperventilation is strong with this one"

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, February 9, 2024 1:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


There is a simple way to attain peace and stability in Europe: stop trying to destroy Russia. Stop trying to extend NATO to Russia's borders. Stop running regime change operations in Europe. Pledge that Ukraine and Georgia will stay neutral ... and KEEP the agreements this time instead of going back on them at every opportunity.

Withdraw USA missile bases from Poland and Romania. Russia will breathe a huge sigh of relief and tensions will flow away.

Of course, if we remain committed to destroying Russia ... and Iran ... and North Korea .... and committed to provoking a war with China, and killing civilians in Gaza .... well, you reap what you sow.

*****

Oh and BTW ... WE CAN'T SUPPLY WHAT WE DON'T HAVE. We could give all kinds of $$$ to Ukraine, but we gave them all of the shells in store, and our combined western production simply can't keep up. So let the printing presses go "brrrrrrrr..." It would be just one last payday for oligarchs, MIC, speculators, and politicians.

What a joke.

Ukraine should have heeded Kissinger's warning.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, February 9, 2024 2:41 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
There is a simple way to attain peace and stability in Europe: stop trying to destroy Russia. Stop trying to extend NATO to Russia's borders. Stop running regime change operations in Europe.
Too late. NATO has already been extended to Russia's border for decades. The sensible Russian move would have been to attack those NATO nations, not Ukraine. But then there is the part about Russia murdering tens of millions of Russians, which makes it absurd that Russia can attain peace and stability. Recall the Soviet Union collapsing. That is not exactly what stable people, sane and sensible, would do to themselves.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm

Map shows Russia's border with NATO
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/map-shows-russias-border-nato-090247
369.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 2:49 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Everything That Was Wrong With Tucker Carlson’s Putin Interview

By Fred Kaplan | Feb 09, 2024, 1:51 PM

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/02/tucker-carlson-putin-inter
view-fact-check-history.html

It is legitimate, in principle, for a journalist to interview a murderous dictator. The uproar over Tucker Carlson’s announcement that he would interview Vladimir Putin was that the session would amount to pure Kremlin propaganda. Carlson, after all, is an admirer of Putin who, in his days as a Fox News host, hoped out loud that Russia would win its war against Ukraine. It was also feared that Putin would spout a stream of lies and that Carlson, who is not a real journalist, much less a historian, would be incapable of pushing back.

In this sense, the two-hour interview, which aired Thursday night on X and Carlson’s website, exceeded all expectations. It is a thoroughly repellent show—for the perniciousness of Putin’s falsehoods, the thoroughness of Carlson’s complicity, and the possible impact it might have at a time when many in Congress are looking for any excuse to cut off further aid to Ukraine’s embattled military.

One bit of good news is that Putin kicked off the big event with a half-hour-long monologue about Russian history, and, amid his holding forth on Yaroslav the Wise, the Ryurik dynasty, and the baptism of Rus (and this was all merely leading up to 1000 A.D.), many viewers likely tuned out and turned it off.

The upshot of Putin’s lecture, it soon became clear, was that Ukraine never existed as a nation, a culture, or an ethnicity separate from Russia; that there was no mention of such a place until 1919, when the Bolsheviks created the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine; and, therefore, the assertion of Ukrainian independence, after the breakup of the USSR, was an absurdity and a gesture of ingratitude.

This is total nonsense, as many analysts and historians noted when Putin laid out his thesis in a 5,000-word essay in 2021 called On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians. Carlson, who sat listening with the expression of a listless undergrad who wondered if he’d stumbled into the wrong seminar, challenged none of it.

The true depths of Putin’s mischief, and Carlson’s collaboration, were plumbed when the discussion turned to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Putin’s account, the war was brought on by the United States and Ukraine. In 2008, President George W. Bush opened the door to Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which had already taken over many of Russia’s former allies in central and Eastern Europe. In 2014, the CIA engineered a coup in Kyiv, which brought to power “neo-Nazis” who sent soldiers into Donbas province, where many Russian speakers lived, forcing Moscow to come to their aid.

This account had the virtue of being half-true, but the half that was false is crucial. It is true that, at the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, Bush declared (and pressured the Western allies to agree) that Ukraine and Georgia would become members, but he didn’t lay out a timetable, thus feeding Ukrainians’ false hopes and Putin’s paranoia—the worst of both worlds.

Putin omitted or distorted much context. First, the expansion of NATO, which began under Bush’s father and President Bill Clinton, was encouraged most of all by the small central and Eastern European countries—chiefly Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Hungary—which did not want to be left defenseless in the face of what they saw as Russia’s inevitable revanchism. (Putin repeated to Carlson his claim that Clinton had promised NATO would expand “not one inch” to the east; as historian M.E. Sarotte proves in her book, titled Not One Inch, this is a myth.)

Second, the events of 2014 began when Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yanukovych, reversed his pledge to seek formal affiliation with the European Union—after Putin offered the country $17 billion if he did so. This backpedaling sparked a mass rebellion on the Maidan, Kyiv’s public square. Yanukovych tried to suppress it with gunfire, but in the end fled to Russia as pro-EU leaders took power.

Putin told Carlson, with a shrug, that he didn’t mind Yanukovych’s turn toward the EU—but in fact he minded it very much, fearing that if Ukraine, the largest and closest of Russia’s former allies, could turn westward and benefit from the switch, democratic protesters in other former republics and in Russia itself might get ideas. Putin refers to Maidan as a “coup,” mounted by the CIA. (I suggest you watch Winter on Fire, Evgeny Afineevsky’s Oscar-nominated Netflix documentary, for vivid rebuttal. If CIA agents were capable of mounting such massive and successful protests, one can only wonder why U.S. ideas and policies don’t spread like wildfire worldwide.)

Finally, Putin claimed that Ukraine sent troops to occupy the eastern provinces of Donbas, when in fact it was Russian special forces who crossed the border to fight alongside secessionist militias.

Putin also claimed that he has always been ready to make peace. He said that he withdrew his troops from Kyiv as a friendly gesture—when, in fact, his troops were forcibly repelled by Ukrainian soldiers. He also said that Russian and Ukrainian diplomats were all set to sign a peace treaty at talks in Istanbul in the spring of 2022—until British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, egged on by President Joe Biden, encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to keep fighting (in order to weaken Russia and to swell the profits of the U.S. military-industrial complex).

In fact, Putin’s negotiation position at Istanbul was simply unacceptable. He demanded that Ukraine recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and his declaration that two of Ukraine’s eastern provinces were now independent states. He also demanded Ukraine’s demilitarization (without any withdrawal of Russian troops) and “de-Nazification” (meaning a resignation of Kyiv’s government for a pro-Kremlin regime). In other words, Putin was demanding Ukrainian surrender.

Again, Carlson said nothing. In fact, he repeated the claim about Johnson as if it were true, and wondered out loud why Johnson did that. Putin also neglected to note (and Carlson lacked the resources to remind him) that, two weeks into the war, Zelensky dropped his insistence on joining NATO. If the Western militarization of Ukraine were really the cause of Russia’s invasion, as he continues to claim, Putin could have halted the war then and there.

Carlson did ask Putin what he meant by “de-Nazification.” Putin cited the ultranationalist, even fascistic figures from World War II that Ukrainians still heroize, claiming that Zelensky is among them. There is something to the claim about Ukrainian nationalism, but it is nonsense to pin the tag on Zelensky, who is Jewish and whose relatives were killed in the Holocaust. It is also worth noting, though Putin did not, that in the 2019 parliamentary elections, a coalition of Ukraine’s four extreme-right parties won just 2 percent of the vote—less than the 5 percent threshold needed to win even a single seat and far less than far-right parties in most other European countries.

Finally, Putin claimed that Zelensky issued a decree banning peace talks with Russia. In fact, Zelensky’s decree banned peace talks not with Russia but with Putin—on the quite sensible grounds that Putin could not be trusted on anything.

Carlson did not challenge this claim, so Putin went on. Ukraine, he said, not for the first time, is a mere puppet of the United States. Biden should lift the decree, and Putin will happily negotiate. Why keep sending billions of dollars to Ukraine, he calmly asked, when America has so many other problems—the southern border, the national debt, and so forth?

This was the point that Putin came to make, the point that he knew no real Western journalist would leave unchallenged, which is why he turned down many other invitations for an interview until the reliable Tucker came calling. Putin knew—and so did Carlson—that many viewers, who know little and care less about Russia or Ukraine, will nod their heads and agree that it’s time to give up and give in.

Carlson did confront Putin on one point. He asked about Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter who has been in a Russian jail for nearly a year on trumped-up charges of espionage. He clearly isn’t a spy, Carlson asserted, so why not free him and let him fly home with me? That would have been quite the coup—a real feather, and favor, for Putin’s favorite American scribe. Putin allowed that a deal would be made at some point, but he continued to insist that Gershkovich “was working for U.S. special services.” Again, Carlson said nothing.

Otherwise, Carlson asked nothing about the many other journalists and critics that Putin has shut down, arrested, or killed. He asked nothing about Putin’s incessant bombing of purely civilian structures across Ukraine. He asked nothing about Russian cyber-operations against the West. He asked nothing about his cooperation with North Korea or Iran. When Putin said he had no territorial ambitions in the Baltics, Poland, or anyplace else, he failed to note that Putin said the same thing about Ukraine before the invasion or that he has rhapsodized since about restoring the Great Russian Empire.

All in all, the interview, by Putin’s standards, was more of the same that we’ve heard for some time now—and, by Carlson’s, even worse than anyone could have dreaded.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 4:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
There is a simple way to attain peace and stability in Europe: stop trying to destroy Russia. Stop trying to extend NATO to Russia's borders. Stop running regime change operations in Europe.
Too late. NATO has already been extended to Russia's border for decades. The sensible Russian move would have been to attack those NATO nations, not Ukraine. But then there is the part about Russia murdering tens of millions of Russians, which makes it absurd that Russia can attain peace and stability. Recall the Soviet Union collapsing. That is not exactly what stable people, sane and sensible, would do to themselves.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm

Map shows Russia's border with NATO
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/map-shows-russias-border-nato-090247
369.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
During negotiations to unite Germany,

Quote:
Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University ( http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).

The documents show that multiple national leaders were considering and rejecting Central and Eastern European membership in NATO as of early 1990 and through 1991, that discussions of NATO in the context of German unification negotiations in 1990 were not at all narrowly limited to the status of East German territory, and that subsequent Soviet and Russian complaints about being misled about NATO expansion were founded in written contemporaneous memcons and telcons at the highest levels.


https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nat
o-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

You certainly persist trying to rewrite history, SECOND. But reality is against you.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, February 9, 2024 4:46 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Meanwhile. Zaluzhny is out bc he might be a political or military threat to Zelenskiy. "Meat grinder" Sirsky, who is 100% loyal to Zelenskiy, is in. Sirsky, who's was responsible for the Debaltsevo cauldron and the bloody but fruitless defense of Bakhmut, is supposedly taking his "not one millimeter" approach to Avdiivka and is calling in more reinforcements for the Russian army to bomb to smithereens.

Since Sirsky seems to be taking orders directly from "cokehead in a bunker" Zelenskiy, I expect this will just lead to a faster unraveling of the Ukrainian army, and - at some point- another Maidan movement as those remaining in Ukraine object to getting pushed into an endless string of fire sacks.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Friday, February 9, 2024 5:43 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Some Day, Ukraine Will Run Out Of Su-25 Attack Jets. That’s Why It Wants Ex-American A-10s.

By David Axe | Feb 8, 2024, 06:44pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/08/some-day-ukraine-will
-run-out-of-su-25-attack-jets-thats-why-it-wants-ex-american-a-10s/?sh=3b04619f4753

Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-25 attack jet while it was flying a combat sortie over eastern Ukraine on Thursday. Pilot Stanislav Rykov, the veteran of more than 380 missions — that’s one sortie every other day since Russia widened its war on Ukraine — tragically died.

Mourn for Rykov, but don’t mourn — yet — for the air force’s 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade, the sole Ukrainian operator of the subsonic, twin-engine Su-25. Nearly two years after Russia attacked, the 299th Brigade has ... exactly as many Su-25s as it started with.

Which is not to say the air force isn’t looking ahead to the day when the aging Su-25s begin to run out. It’s not for no reason that some Ukrainian officials have been asking for ex-U.S. Air Force Fairchild Republic A-10 attack jets.

The Ukrainian air force inherited scores of the armored Su-25s from the Soviet air force as the latter withdrew from Ukraine after 1991. By early 2022, 43 of the aging planes still were flyable, according to aviation journalist Vladimir Trendafilovski.

The journalist counted 30 operational Su-25s, one that was undergoing overhaul at the Zaporizhzhia State Aircraft Repair Plant plus another 12 that were in flyable storage at Mykolaiv-Kulbakino, the 299th’s Brigade home base in southern Ukraine.

When Russia invaded on Feb. 24, 2022, the Su-25s and their pilots and crews scattered across Ukraine to dodge Russian missiles — and then flew into action, streaking toward Russian forces at extremely low level to drop bombs and fire rockets.

The Russians over the next two years shot down or blew up on the ground 18 Su-25s, and killed many pilots. But between them, Macedonia and Bulgaria donated to Ukraine — you guessed it — 18 Su-25s. While it’s possible the 299th Brigade has stripped some of the donated airframes for spare parts, it’s equally possible the unit instead cannibalized older ex-Soviet Sukhois — and sent the donated jets into action.

All that is to say that, despite heavy losses, the 299th Brigade very much remains in the fight. It’s the same situation the Ukrainian air force’s other brigades are in. Units flying Sukhoi Su-24 bombers, Sukhoi Su-27 fighters and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters have maintained their front-line strength by acquiring fresh jets from abroad — in the MiG-29 brigades’ case — or by reactivating old stored jets.

Still, Ukrainian officials seem to appreciate that there no longer is an abundance of excess Su-25s in the arsenals of allied countries. Any further losses could eat into the 299th Brigade’s strength.

So it should come as no surprise that Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky — formerly chief of the ground forces, now the head of the entire armed forces — has his heart set on American A-10s. The subsonic, twin-engine A-10 broadly is similar to the Su-25. If anything, it’s better-protected and much better-armed.

“This is not a new machine,” Syrsky said about the A-10, “but a reliable one that has proven itself in many wars, and which has a wide array of weapons for destroying land targets to help the infantry.”

The U.S. Air Force operates around 200 of the 1970s- and ’80s-vintage A-10s. Hundreds more are in storage. There’s no reason that, given a few months of training, Ukrainian pilots couldn’t fly the tough attack jets.

But there are political reasons the 299th Brigade might never get A-10s. Starting last fall, Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress refused to vote on any further aid to Ukraine: aid that could provide the Ukrainians with ammunition, armored vehicles, artillery and — yes — warplanes.

So the 299th Brigade must make do with its 40 or so Su-25s — or get in line for fresh jets from some donor other than the United States. Say, Lockheed Martin F-16s from Norway, The Netherlands and Denmark or, potentially, Dassault Mirage 2000s from France.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 8:11 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Putin Defends Hitler's Invasion of Poland in Carlson Interview

Feb 09, 2024 at 12:46 PM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-putin-defends-hitlers-invasion-pol
and-carlson-interview-1868582

Putin's claim that Hitler was "forced" to invade Poland is not accepted by historical evidence. Hitler broke Germany's non-aggression pact with Poland, signed in January 1934, under the guise of what it claimed was Polish aggression.

The National WWII Museum in New Orleans writes "Hitler was determined to make it look as if the Poles had provoked the hostilities and the SS obliged by staging numerous false-flag operations and 'Polish provocations' against Germans."

It adds "According to the testimony of Sturmbannführer Alfred Naujocks at Nuremberg, Reinhard Heydrich and Heinrich "Gestapo" Müller ordered Operation Himmler to make the Poles appear to be the aggressors and to justify the coming war."

The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum says that to justify the invasion, Nazi propagandists accused Poland of persecuting ethnic Germans living in Poland.

"They also falsely claimed that Poland was planning, with its allies Great Britain and France, to encircle and dismember Germany. The SS, in collusion with the German military, staged a phony attack on a German radio station. The Germans falsely accused the Poles of this attack. Hitler then used the action to launch a 'retaliatory' campaign against Poland."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, February 9, 2024 9:44 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


More of SECOND'S blah-blah-blah and misrepresentation.

Nobody believes you any more, SECOND. Not even THUGR.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, February 10, 2024 7:30 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
More of SECOND'S blah-blah-blah and misrepresentation.

Nobody believes you any more, SECOND. Not even THUGR.
Have you asked why Belarus is NOT treating NATO as if it is threatening to destroy Belarus? And why doesn't Belarus attack those Ukrainian Nazis? These are big questions, Signym. There is one answer:

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has not been as successful as Putin at persuading his citizens to back the Ukraine war.

Ukraine war: why propaganda doesn’t work as well in Belarus as it does in Russia

By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex | February 9, 2024, 11:50am EST

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-propaganda-doesnt-work-as-
well-in-belarus-as-it-does-in-russia-222038

Though Russia has accidentally bombed one of its own villages, implemented a harsh conscription policy, and already faced 315,000 casualties, Russian support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine has not wavered much. Throughout the conflict, levels of support have averaged about 75%.

In contrast, Belarusian people are far more wary of being drawn into the conflict. Based on a survey conducted by the thinktank Chatham House in August 2022, only 25% supported Russia’s actions (if it meant not getting directly involved), while a whopping 97% opposed the deployment of Belarusian troops.

Additionally, a surprisingly low number of Belarusians (26%) said they would feel negatively if Belarusian soldiers refused to fight or follow orders. Some Belarusians have even become directly involved in the conflict to support Ukraine, such as in May 2023 when Belarusian volunteers tricked the Russians into firing on their own positions in the town of Bakmut.

As conducting surveys in authoritarian regimes draws concern that the responses may be biased in favour of the regime, this makes the results in Belarus even more surprising. Meanwhile, the country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, has allowed Russian troops to pass through his territory to invade Ukraine, and supported Putin’s invasion.

Why Belarus is different

For the most part, the majority of urban Belarusians surveyed want Belarus to distance itself from the war and express neutrality. In contrast to Russians, Belarusian society considers the war senseless and harmful to Belarus.

What explains these diverging views? In general, Belarusians are much more war averse than Russians, with very different memories of what they call “the great patriotic war” (the second world war). Of all of the former Soviet republics, Belarus sustained the most casualties per capita, and since gaining independence in 1991, it aspired for neutrality – something that was built into its constitution. But this was put into jeopardy from 2020, when Lukashenko was forced to cosy up to Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, after protests broke out challenging the Belarus election.

Russian propaganda wins

But Russia also lost millions of men to the great patriotic war, so why is Putin so much more effective in convincing Russians to support another conflict, compared with Lukashenko?

In stark comparison to Belarus, Russia has developed a successful propaganda machine that is entertaining, confusing and overwhelming. Flooding citizens with information that demonises its opponents is a key component to Russia’s propaganda strategy.

Russian propaganda uses a large number of channels and constantly disseminates falsehoods at high volume and speed. This onslaught of propaganda makes it even harder for its citizens to discern what is false and what is the truth. Indeed, research has demonstrated that receiving similar messages from multiple sources, no matter the veracity, is very persuasive.

Russia has been agile in targeting social media, using the popular messaging platform Telegram to create different channels that support pro-Kremlin narratives. In gearing up for the war against Ukraine, Russia promoted the myth that Russia’s defeat of Nazi Germany in the second world war should be a rallying point for the population in the fight against Nazis in Ukraine. Putin repeatedly made claims that were disseminated through various media channels that Ukraine needed to be de-nazified.

Research has suggested that Putin’s propaganda has elicited strong support for a military invasion among Russians, and that the Russian public’s preferences for using military force were easily manipulated. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, state-controlled media outlets promoted claims that Ukraine was developing biological and nuclear weapons, engaging in ethnic cleansing, and using Russian-speaking residents in Ukraine as human shields. Since the invasion, Russia focuses less on the Nazis and more on fighting the west – promoting the idea that Russia is the underdog.

To counter information that challenged these views, Russia blocked western social media platforms, labelling them extreme organisations, and a law was passed which could impose a penalty of 15 years in prison for intentionally spreading false information about the war. While Russians have access to alternative news sources and can use VPNs, support for the war can be linked to the effectiveness of Putin’s propaganda, and many Russians genuinely believe the regime’s narratives.

In contrast, Belarus has not been as effective in using propaganda to garner support for the conflict, or Lukashenko. A poll in 2020 in the lead-up to the presidential election found that only 3% intended to vote for him (whereas Putin has been polling at over 70% since February 2022). This resulted in authorities banning Belarusians from conducting independent social research.

In addition to Lukashenko being unpopular, Belarus’s state media has little credibility with ordinary people. Unofficial media are seen as a better source of information, particularly since Lukashenko mismanaged his messaging during the COVID pandemic.

Non-traditional media has been harder for Belarus to regulate, with platforms such as YouTube, Instagram and Telegram accumulating millions of followers and remaining free from state interference. Opposition rallies streamed live in August 2020 drew over 1 million viewers. A channel called Nexta, created by a Belarusian teen in 2015, became a primary source of news distributed through YouTube and Telegram. Belarus has tried to buy up Telegram channels in order to counter anti-regime messages, but has not had a strong presence.

In contrast to the Russian media, which has become a weapon in its own right, the Belarusian state media remains a relic of Soviet times. Modern communications are not Lukashenko’s strong suit – Russian media outlets reported that he does not even own a smartphone. He has not invested much in the state-run media, which remains unsophisticated. The most that the state can do is block and jam outside information – it has little ability to craft emotionally appealing messaging that resonates with an audience.

Though Russia has tried to exercise greater control over Belarus (and Lukashenko has been a willing junior partner), there is little evidence that there will be much buy-in from Belarusian society. It remains resilient and defiant in spite of all the efforts to convince it otherwise.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, February 10, 2024 11:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK




--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Saturday, February 10, 2024 1:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
More of SECOND'S blah-blah-blah and misrepresentation.

Nobody believes you any more, SECOND. Not even THUGR.

SECOND: Have you asked why Belarus is NOT treating NATO as if it is threatening to destroy Belarus? And why doesn't Belarus attack those Ukrainian Nazis? These are big questions, Signym. There is one answer


Because up until a couple of years ago, when the CIA tried overthrowing Lukashenko, Lukashenko never considered Belarus a USA target. And that's bc, for decades, it never was. Because it was never big enough, or rich enough, or had enough military resources to get a bullseye painted on it.

So Lukashenko was allowed (by the west) to remain as President since 1994 (30 years) without any massive propaganda campaigns, and Belarus was alowed to continue its Soviet-style economy, which never went thru the same upheavels as Russia, and Belarussians were more or less content with the way things were without western agitprop winding things up.

But once the CIA tried a (premature, not fully prepared) regime change operation there, Lukashenko realized which side his bread was buttered on.

You post ridiculous propaganda that has nothing to do with reality.



*****

Syrsky's appt is not going down well in Ukraine, or anywhere.

Quote:
Zaluzhny Finally Dismissed as Chaos Reigns in AFU



He’s being called a ‘butcher’ and is known in other circles as a meat-grinder who refused to give an inch in Bakhmut while calling for frontal meat-assaults, leading to the extermination of an entire field army group.

Zelensky on the other hand praises him for his grand achievements: the Kiev “defense” and the Kharkov offensive. Unfortunately, as sector commander in 2015, he was also reportedly responsible for the infamous Debaltsevo cauldron:

*We have collected the most famous operations of Syrsky, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

Debaltsevo-2015
Soledar-2022
Bakhmut-2022
All these operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ended in encirclement and defeat for them. Two majors.

...
But here’s the most important angle that few others, it seems, have noticed.

Ask yourself, why would Zelensky appoint a commander that the entire armed forces allegedly hates?

In fact, this is a ‘design feature’ not a bug.

Recall that the reason Zaluzhny was given the boot was he had become too powerful: he was too loved by the troops, and by the people. Why? One of the reasons is likely because he fought for the troops multiple times. In early 2023, documents were leaked showing that he nearly begged Zelensky to pull troops back from Bakhmut, but the narco-Fuhrer refused, wanting it as a symbolic city defense—perhaps taken with romantic delusions of Stalingrad.

During the grand summer ‘counteroffensive’, Zaluzhny pulled the brigades of the 10th Army Corps back and began to use them sparingly—much to the chagrin and disapproval of US sponsors—after the initial first few wipes devastated columns of Leopards and Bradleys along the infamous road of death near Rabotino and Mala Tokmachka.

Recently it was claimed Zaluzhny likewise attempted to get Avdeevka totally withdrawn. It does not seem that he likes to waste men for what he knows to be fruitless efforts. Syrsky on the other hand appears glad to grind them down.

So, has it become obvious yet? Zelensky needs a commander-in-chief he can control, someone not universally loved by the troops; someone who cannot use those troops at a time of opportunity to ‘march on Kiev’ and oust Zelensky from his citadel. Syrsky appears to fit the perfect prototypical role: undefiant, unpopular, uncharismatic, and most importantly, untempted by political ambitions—the ideal subserviant factotum to Zelensky’s regime.



But what about Budanov??

Possibly USA neocons have given up on winning a conventional war. At that point, the military- which just might pose a threat in the form of a coup- can be conveniently ground down while still usefully killing Russians, while the CIA takes over and transfers the real effort to a terrorist/ insurgency war. It doesn't take tens or hundreds of thousands of troops for that, just a limited number of spec ops.

And, what's that $61 billion for, if there are no more weapons available for Ukraine and it can't really wage, much less win, a conventional war?

ONE LAST PAYDAY, I suppose.

MORE, MUCH MORE, AT https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zaluzhny-finally-dismissed-as-chao
s


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, February 10, 2024 5:19 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


At the end of 2023, total U.S. aid to Ukraine reached more than $79 billion. America's Department of Defense said in a release on Friday that $43 billion of that has included defense capabilities.

The European Union and its member states have pledged $148.5 billion in aid — including military, financial and humanitarian assistance — since the start of the war in February 2022.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraines-military-receive-double-boost-nato-a
llies-1868679

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, February 10, 2024 5:26 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
More of SECOND'S blah-blah-blah and misrepresentation.

Nobody believes you any more, SECOND. Not even THUGR.

SECOND: Have you asked why Belarus is NOT treating NATO as if it is threatening to destroy Belarus? And why doesn't Belarus attack those Ukrainian Nazis? These are big questions, Signym. There is one answer


Because up until a couple of years ago, when the CIA tried overthrowing Lukashenko, Lukashenko never considered Belarus a USA target. And that's bc, for decades, it never was. Because it was never big enough, or rich enough, or had enough military resources to get a bullseye painted on it.

So Lukashenko was allowed (by the west) to remain as President since 1994 (30 years) without any massive propaganda campaigns, and Belarus was alowed to continue its Soviet-style economy, which never went thru the same upheavels as Russia, and Belarussians were more or less content with the way things were without western agitprop winding things up.

But once the CIA tried a (premature, not fully prepared) regime change operation there, Lukashenko realized which side his bread was buttered on.

You post ridiculous propaganda that has nothing to do with reality.
Belarus has not invaded Ukraine. Explain why no invasion, Signym.

Belarusian people are far more wary of being drawn into the conflict. Based on a survey conducted by the thinktank Chatham House in August 2022, only 25% supported Russia’s actions (if it meant not getting directly involved), while a whopping 97% opposed the deployment of Belarusian troops.

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-propaganda-doesnt-work-as-
well-in-belarus-as-it-does-in-russia-222038

Why has Belarus not invaded Ukraine? Because Putin is not its head of state and the Belarusian people aren't soaking up Putin's propaganda.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, February 10, 2024 5:32 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
More of SECOND'S blah-blah-blah and misrepresentation.

Nobody believes you any more, SECOND. Not even THUGR.

SECOND: Have you asked why Belarus is NOT treating NATO as if it is threatening to destroy Belarus? And why doesn't Belarus attack those Ukrainian Nazis? These are big questions, Signym. There is one answer


Because up until a couple of years ago, when the CIA tried overthrowing Lukashenko, Lukashenko never considered Belarus a USA target. And that's bc, for decades, it never was. Because it was never big enough, or rich enough, or had enough military resources to get a bullseye painted on it.

So Lukashenko was allowed (by the west) to remain as President since 1994 (30 years) without any massive propaganda campaigns, and Belarus was alowed to continue its Soviet-style economy, which never went thru the same upheavels as Russia, and Belarussians were more or less content with the way things were without western agitprop winding things up.

But once the CIA tried a (premature, not fully prepared) regime change operation there, Lukashenko realized which side his bread was buttered on.

You post ridiculous propaganda that has nothing to do with reality.
Belarus has not invaded Ukraine. Explain why no invasion, Signym.

Belarusian people are far more wary of being drawn into the conflict. Based on a survey conducted by the thinktank Chatham House in August 2022, only 25% supported Russia’s actions (if it meant not getting directly involved), while a whopping 97% opposed the deployment of Belarusian troops.

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-propaganda-doesnt-work-as-
well-in-belarus-as-it-does-in-russia-222038

Why has Belarus not invaded Ukraine? Because Putin is not its head of state and the Belarusian people aren't soaking up Putin's propaganda.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Because Ukraine wasn't shelling close to Belarus' border. Because Ukraine wasn't massing troops on Belarus' border.

You dolt.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, February 10, 2024 5:59 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Because Ukraine wasn't shelling close to Belarus' border. Because Ukraine wasn't massing troops on Belarus' border.

You dolt.
But Ukrainians are Nazis who could attack Belarus for no reason! And Russia is being attacked by those Nazis! Why won't the Belorussians save their Russian-speaking comrades? Because Putin is not Belarus's head of state and Belorussians aren't soaking up Putin's propaganda. It is almost like this war is solely Putin's idea for expanding Russia territory into an adjacent country with a small Army that should have been trivial for Russia to steamroll.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 12:14 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Ukraine is attacking Russia BECAUSE THE WEST AIMED THEM AT RUSSIA. THAT WAS ALWAYS THE PLAN.

USA neocons figured that if Ukraine, with western help, couldn't beat Russia militarily then the west would impose "crippling" sanctions on Russia and engineer regime change that way.

My god, you're Mr Oblivious.

RUSSIA WAS ALWAYS THE TARGET. Belarus simply isn't rich enough, big enough, powerful enough, or have enough resources or nukes to be interesting to the west. Russia is the prize that speculators and financiers wanted to grab.
AGAIN.
It is the nail that refuses to be hammered down.

And neocons grossly miscalculated and AFAICT got their ass handed to them instead.

Fuck neocons.
Fuck you too.

DOLT!



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Sunday, February 11, 2024 6:56 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Ukraine is attacking Russia BECAUSE THE WEST AIMED THEM AT RUSSIA. THAT WAS ALWAYS THE PLAN.
Do you really and truly believe Putin's story for why he invaded? Goodness gracious! You are a precious little thing.

The Kremlin's Occupation Playbook: Coerced Russification and Ethnic Cleansing in Occupied Ukraine
Feb 8, 2024

The war in Ukraine is primarily a war for control of people, not land. Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine twice not mainly because he desires Ukraine’s land, but rather because he seeks to control its people. Putin’s project, explicitly articulated in the 2021 article he published justifying the 2022 full-scale invasion, is the destruction of Ukraine’s distinctive political, social, linguistic, and religious identity.[1] Putin seeks to make real his false ideological conviction that Ukrainians are simply confused Russians with an invented identity, language, and history that a small, Western-backed minority is seeking to impose on the majority of inhabitants. He sees language as one of the primary determinants of ethnicity—Russian speakers, he claims, must be Russians regardless of the state they live in.[2] The Russian Federation has claimed special rights to protect Russians in the former Soviet states since the 1990s, although the Kremlin did not act on those claims until Putin became president.[3] Putin’s aim to destroy Ukrainian identity, language, and culture is thus one of the primary objectives of his entire enterprise.

The stakes of this war thus transcend hectares of land. They include the lives, freedom, and identities of nearly five million Ukrainians currently living under Russian occupation, the nearly five million more whom the Kremlin has illegally deported to Russia and the additional millions who have fled their homeland to other parts of Ukraine or abroad.[4] Dry, abstract, “realist” discussions about pressuring Ukraine to make “concessions”—to “trade land for peace”—ignore the reality of the war. This war is about people as well as land, and Western leaders cannot dismiss the consequences of the policies they pursue and demand.

Russia first experimented with its occupation playbook in 2008 when it invaded Georgia and occupied the Georgian territories of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia “republics.”[5] Russia further developed means and methods of occupation in Ukraine after it invaded and seized Crimea and parts of Donbas in 2014. The international community denounced the 2014 invasion, refused to recognize Russia’s claims to these areas, and heavily sanctioned involved Russian actors.[6] The international response, however, failed to discourage Russia from continuing its occupation of Ukraine and setting conditions for the 2022 full-scale invasion. Russia succeeded in forcing the international community to accept and internalize the 2014 occupation enough that many even in the West now view the 2014 territories as different from the rest of Ukraine.

Russia is now applying these means and methods of occupation on an expanded scale in the Ukrainian territories it occupied since the full-scale invasion that began on February 24, 2022. The Kremlin’s occupation design aims to eliminate Ukrainian identity by forcibly integrating occupied Ukraine into Russia socially, culturally, linguistically, politically, economically, religiously, and bureaucratically. Moscow ultimately seeks to persuade Kyiv and its supporters that the forced integration of Ukraine into Russia, and the resulting elimination of Ukrainian identity, are permanent and irreversible so that the Kremlin can fully subjugate these territories and people for its own gain.

Putin also seeks to use Ukraine as a source of mobilizable manpower in part to address Russia's demographic issues. Russia has been struggling since the beginning of the 1990s with a demographic crisis, caused by declining birthrates, an aging population, low life expectancy (particularly among males of working age), and high levels of emigration.[7] Why would energetic and capable Russians leave? Russia is materially prosperous and happy compared to Finland, for one European example. Sorry. My mistake. Russia certainly is not. The war has somewhat exacerbated Russia’s demographic challenges because 800,000- 900,000 Russians fled the country after the start of the war, including up to 700,000 who ran after Putin ordered partial mobilization in September 2022.[8] Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data shows that Russia’s labor shortage amounted to 4.8 million people in 2023, a problem that has reduced Russia’s economic output.[9] Rosstat also estimated in 2023 that Russia’s population will decline naturally at a rate of more than 600,000 people per year until 2032.[10]

Rosstat reported that the Russian population was 146 million as of January 1, 2023.[11] Five million Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied areas, plus the 4.8 million Ukrainians whom Russia has deported into the Russian Federation, thus comprise about 7 percent of the current Russian population. Russian efforts to control Ukrainian land and seize its people are therefore in part intended to offset Russia’s population decline and workforce shortages.

More at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/kremlins-occupation-play
book-coerced-russification-and-ethnic-cleansing-occupied

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 8:03 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The propagandized, brainwashed idiot is laughing at the free thinkers.

That's amusing.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 10:39 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
The propagandized, brainwashed idiot is laughing at the free thinkers.

That's amusing.
‘Want to go home’: Nepalis fighting for Russia in Ukraine describe horrors

They were lured by the promise of $3,000 paycheques and Russian citizenship. Now they’re trapped, wounded or dead.

By Samik Kharel | 10 Feb 2024

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/2/10/want-to-go-home-nepalis-f
ighting-for-russia-in-ukraine-describe-horrors

On a bitterly cold morning in early January, somewhere near Tokmak city in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, Bimal Bhandari began a risky journey to desert the Russian army he had been serving with. The 32-year-old Nepali national was with another compatriot who also was fighting for the Kremlin, in and against Ukraine.

The two men knew that getting away from the Russians would be a dangerous task, but they concluded that the risk was worth it, when weighed against their chances of survival as soldiers in Moscow’s savage war.

It was three hours before a vehicle arrived. There were no rescuers inside. Instead, it had a Russian border patrol team that handcuffed them and took them in the vehicle. They were jailed for a day, their passports seized before Bhandari was taken to a health facility, suffering from hypothermia.

“It was our one and only chance to escape this brutal war and we failed,” he told Al Jazeera, from his hospital bed. “I do not want to recover – as soon as I get better, I’ll be pushed to the front line.”

It’s a far cry from the hope and promise of a life in Europe that first drew many of the recruits to Moscow’s side.

Three months into the war, Bhandari has not been paid even once.

More at https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/2/10/want-to-go-home-nepalis-f
ighting-for-russia-in-ukraine-describe-horrors

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 2:19 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Whatever that bullshit was had nothing to do with my quote.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 3:53 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Whatever that bullshit was had nothing to do with my quote.
You keep reminding me that you are goddamn fucking stupid. People are telling you in detail that you are a shitty person but you refuse to learn who you are and change your ways of living for the better. Get a job, you worthless asshole. Stop smoking. Stop lying. The Russians are the same. They act horribly, deny they are horrible, and then blame the West, not themselves, for Russians being poor, suffering and short-lived. Putin achieved power by repeatedly telling Russians they are admirable people despite plenty of proof they are lying sacks of shit, lazy, drunken, dishonest, violent fools. Putin keeps telling Russians that it is not their rotten behavior that causes Russia's problems. Nothing is Russia's fault. It is the West's fault.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 5:02 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Russian State TV Host Says 'We Are Aggressors and Extremely Evil'

By Ellie Cook | Feb 11, 2024 at 10:17 AM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-state-tv-sergey-mardan-ukraine-1868844

Russian citizens "always come back for what is theirs," a Russian state media host has said, dubbing Moscow's troops the "aggressors" as the grueling war in Ukraine fast approaches its 2-year mark.

The Russian people are "aggressors and extremely evil," Sergey Mardan, said in a clip translated and posted to social media by Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to Ukraine's Interior Ministry.

Throughout the war, the Kremlin has framed Ukraine as part of historical Russia. Back in 2021, ahead of Russian forces crossing into Ukraine for Moscow's full-scale invasion, President Vladimir Putin said "Russians and Ukrainians were one people — a single whole."

But Kyiv and many Western analysts describe the war as a fight for survival for Ukraine, with its soldiers battling against cultural erasure.

"They say that we are aggressors and extremely evil, cruel people, and so on," Mardan said, making no distinction between Russian citizens, the military or the government. "I always reply to that: 'Yes, yes, you are right.'"

"Yes, Russians are aggressors; yes, Russians can be cruel and do not forget anything. Russians always come back from what is theirs," Mardan said, according to Gerashchenko's translation.

"Russians don't feel guilty. Russians are not prone to reflection. Russians are engaged in cultural appropriation and don't even understand what it is."

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

"We are aggressors, extremely evil, cruel people," Russian propagandist Mardan started telling the truth about Russians out of the blue.

By the way, what do you really think about Russians now? What are the main common national traits you see? https://t.co/UBIHcfsQQY https://t.co/2fgazVKkZF
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) February 11, 2024

Putin appeared to double down on this well-worn tactic of justifying his country's invasion of Ukraine in his much-examined interview with former Fox News anchor, Tucker Carlson, earlier this week.

"Ukraine is an artificial state," the Russian leader said, according to a Kremlin readout.

"The president of Russia told the Western world as carefully and in detail as possible why there was no Ukraine, there is not and there will not be," former Russian president and current deputy head of the country's security council, Dmitry Medvedev, said in a post to messaging app Telegram.

Russian state media has, throughout the war, amplified similar rhetoric. Mardan, a prominent voice among Kremlin propagandists, has previously claimed being Ukrainian is a "completely deliberate" and political choice.

In a graphic analogy, Mardan then compared claiming Ukrainian identity to "swearing an oath with the devil."

"A person stands in front of the mirror, looks in the mirror, and says, 'I am a Ukrainian.'" Mardan said, according to a translation provided by the Russian Media Monitor project, run by journalist Julia Davis. "He swears some kind of an oath and slits his vein, I don't know all that they do during it."

"You denounce Christ and say, 'Now I am a Ukrainian,'" Mardan said.

"Russia has sought for centuries to sideline and extinguish the Ukrainian language and culture," it has targeted Ukrainian communities within Russia systematically," Rory Finnin, an associate professor of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Cambridge, U.K., told Newsweek in January.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 7:30 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SECOND, you spew so much bullshit Im surprised there's anything left but an empty husk.

No, I don't "believe Putin". But (unlike you) I DO remember facts.

It has been the west's ambition, since 1917, to destroy, conquer, or partition Russia. Russia is an ideological and military rival. Except for a few brief years when the USA, UK, and Russia allied to fight the Nazi exigency (NO, Russia did NOT start WWII. NO, Russia was NOT an ally of Hitler. NO, the USA did NOT win the war against the Nazis.) we have strived to defeat, contain, collapse, or conquer Russia.

Don't you remember YOUR OWN slavering over an anticipated "decolonization" (i.e. breakup) of Russia?
Your whinges how "unfair" it was that Russia is so resource-rich?
That gleeful hand-rubbing about Russia's hoped for demise?
Your calls to assasinate Putin?

And now you're trying to convince ... anyone ... that it was all a joke?

Dood, your posts are an ACCURATE reflection of neocon intent and tactics since 2000.

Like I said, nobody believes you any more. Not even THUGR. So why do you keep lying? You're only hurting your own psyche by being divided from reality.

Stop that nonstop posting of hate and lies. Come out from your dark and twisted inner space. Get out in the sun and breathe some fresh air. Do something useful.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Sunday, February 11, 2024 8:01 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND, you spew so much bullshit Im surprised there's anything left but an empty husk.

No, I don't "believe Putin". But (unlike you) I DO remember facts.

It has been the west's ambition, since 1917, to destroy, conquer, or partition Russia. Russia is an ideological and military rival. Except for a few brief years when the USA, UK, and Russia allied to fight the Nazi exigency (NO, Russia did NOT start WWII. NO, Russia was NOT an ally of Hitler. NO, the USA did NOT win the war against the Nazis.) we have strived to defeat, contain, collapse, or conquer Russia.

Don't you remember YOUR OWN slavering over an anticipated "decolonization" (i.e. breakup) of Russia?
Your whinges how "unfair" it was that Russia is so resource-rich?
That gleeful hand-rubbing about Russia's hoped for demise?
Your calls to assasinate Putin?

And now you're trying to convince ... anyone ... that it was all a joke?

Dood, your posts are an ACCURATE reflection of neocon intent and tactics since 2000.

Like I said, nobody believes you any more. Not even THUGR. So why do you keep lying? You're only hurting your own psyche by being divided from reality.

Stop that nonstop posting of hate and lies. Come out from your dark and twisted inner space. Get out in the sun and breathe some fresh air. Do something useful.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM


I need to hold on to this one so that Signym can't change a word. Signym, you need a citation for every point you make and you can't use a Russian source.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, February 11, 2024 8:33 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



You deny that USA, UK, and USSR briefly were allies in WWII?

You deny that the USA and Soviet Union, and now Russia, have been rivals and cold warriors since 1917?

You deny that USA has been angling to contain, conquer, or destroy Russia, and to regain the grip and wealth that it lost in 2000?

Dood, you have been proving my point with every neocon statement from CNN, MSN, Financial Times, NYT, WaPo, Institute for the Study of War, outlet, think tank, politician, and bureacracy that YOU so helpfully splattered everwhere.

I don't need to cite anybody except YOU to prove my point. Go back and read your own posts, dolt!




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, February 12, 2024 1:21 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND, you spew so much bullshit Im surprised there's anything left but an empty husk.

No, I don't "believe Putin". But (unlike you) I DO remember facts.

It has been the west's ambition, since 1917, to destroy, conquer, or partition Russia. Russia is an ideological and military rival. Except for a few brief years when the USA, UK, and Russia allied to fight the Nazi exigency (NO, Russia did NOT start WWII. NO, Russia was NOT an ally of Hitler. NO, the USA did NOT win the war against the Nazis.) we have strived to defeat, contain, collapse, or conquer Russia.

Don't you remember YOUR OWN slavering over an anticipated "decolonization" (i.e. breakup) of Russia?
Your whinges how "unfair" it was that Russia is so resource-rich?
That gleeful hand-rubbing about Russia's hoped for demise?
Your calls to assasinate Putin?

And now you're trying to convince ... anyone ... that it was all a joke?

Dood, your posts are an ACCURATE reflection of neocon intent and tactics since 2000.

Like I said, nobody believes you any more. Not even THUGR. So why do you keep lying? You're only hurting your own psyche by being divided from reality.

Stop that nonstop posting of hate and lies. Come out from your dark and twisted inner space. Get out in the sun and breathe some fresh air. Do something useful.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM


I need to hold on to this one so that Signym can't change a word. Signym, you need a citation for every point you make and you can't use a Russian source.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



You know that's not how quotes work on this ancient website, right dude?


Quote:
Originally posted by second:

I'm a dumb fucking Communist pirate dipshit who still has no clue how to wipe his ass.


It's in quotes.

You must have said it.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Monday, February 12, 2024 7:30 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

You deny that USA, UK, and USSR briefly were allies in WWII?

You deny that the USA and Soviet Union, and now Russia, have been rivals and cold warriors since 1917?

You deny that USA has been angling to contain, conquer, or destroy Russia, and to regain the grip and wealth that it lost in 2000?

Dood, you have been proving my point with every neocon statement from CNN, MSN, Financial Times, NYT, WaPo, Institute for the Study of War, outlet, think tank, politician, and bureacracy that YOU so helpfully splattered everwhere.

I don't need to cite anybody except YOU to prove my point. Go back and read your own posts, dolt!

If the USA was under a king, an emperor, a Fuhrer, an absolute dictator, you could talk about it as an entity with one mind, one goal, a purpose, a direction. But it is none of those things, does not do those things. The funny thing about Russia, for centuries it has always been like that and continues to be like that with this particular leader who has been in power since 1999. Funny how the highest leadership in Russia keeps killing off millions of Russians. The leadership position keeps changing, (Peter the Great, Stalin, Putin) but the killing of millions of Russians goes on and on in foreign war after foreign war. And tens of millions of Russians died from government violence within its borders.

Signym you have flat-out denied Russia killed 62,000,000 Russians and counting. I am certain you understand nothing about Russia since you refuse to understand that.

For comparison with Russia, 646,596 American troops have died in battle since the Revolutionary War ended. Russia would be a very different country if it could have kept its deaths that few. But Russia's rulers never needed to keep the death numbers low because the Russian citizens, unlike Americans, did not place an extremely high value on their own lives.
https://www.military.com/memorial-day/how-many-us-militay-members-died
-each-american-war.html

6,872,000 Victims: Post-Stalin Period, 1954-1987

With Stalin’s death, the terror was gradually alleviated, though not really ended until the 1980s under Gorbachev. Beria, Stalin’s chief enforcer and head of the KGB, was executed; many other lesser lights were purged.1

The “crimes” of the Stalin years, particularly the Great Terror (in which, be it remembered, top party members were executed) were secretly revealed by Khrushchev. As mentioned in the previous chapter, the camp population was gradually reduced and the camp regime improved in the post-Stalin 1950s. However, the death camps at Kolyma still continued into the early 1960s, when they were also subject to reform, and perhaps largely closed by the middle 1960s.2

The overall camp deathrate also was gradually reduced.3 Commissions were sent to all camps to review sentences with the authority to release prisoners. Amnesties were declared. And the average citizen gradually became more secure in what he could say and do.

But all this was relative. Freedom of thought and expression, security from arbitrary arrest and imprisonment, the right to a fair trial, are not yet guaranteed to the Soviet citizen, even under Gorbachev. For example, in April 1989 the Soviet Presidium issued a decree making it illegal to insult or discredit the government.4 Until recently, citizens who spoke out or demonstrated against the party could yet end up in labor camps, possibly to die from any of a number of causes with which the reader of Solzhenitsyn has become familiar,5 not the least of which is being beaten or confined in a punishment cell. Even in reference to the late 1960s, Solzhenitsyn wrote that camps differed from Stalin’s not in regime, but in composition—there were no longer many millions of those sentenced for political reasons, or for no reason at all.6 In fact, numerous camp inmates had written Solzhenitsyn to point out that their conditions in the middle 1960s were just as bad as under Stalin.7

Moreover, while improved, the diet still barely sustained life, especially in strict regime camps. As late as 1977, a prisoner got 2,600 calories, 2,100 on a punishment diet, and 1,300 in the strict-punishment cells. Ignoring the diet’s deficiency in vitamins and fats, in calories alone it was far below the international standard of 3,100 to 3,900 calories for a man working a very active, eight-hour day.8

In addition, something new was added for the especially important political prisoners. They often were interned in psychiatric hospitals for the insane, where they were kept under pain-inducing or mind-numbing drugs.9

As late as 1982, the American CIA claimed that there were at least 4,000,000 prisoners, including 10,000 prisoners involved in forced labor.10 But these numbers may be on the low side. In the early 1980s, a former senior member of the Supreme Soviet who was in camp for bribery calculated that Soviet prisons and camps held about 5,000,000, with an additional 2,000,000 in investigative prisons waiting for trial or review of their sentences, and another 6,000,000 not in camps or prisons but doing mild forms of forced labor.11

The 1983-87 camp population was probably 4,000,000, even possibly as high as 5,000,000, inmates. The number of political prisoners can only be guessed but was likely in five figures.12 Also, many alleged criminals were truly political prisoners (an anti-Soviet nuclear arms demonstrator may have been sentenced to five years for “hooliganism,” a person caught trying to flee the Soviet Union over border barricades may have gotten ten years for treason).

For 1987 or early 1988, the CIA estimated that there still were 4,000,000 prisoners. Yuri Orlov, the former head of the Helsinki Monitoring Group, claimed that there were 5,000,000. Moreover, there were still claims that the courts had a quota to fill for forced labor.13 And there is still a duty to work. Those not doing socially useful work, which is work legally contracted by the government or an enterprise sanctioned and registered by the government, are defined as parasites and subject to up to two years in prison.14

From the book Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, February 12, 2024 7:35 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


After Russia’s invasion, the people of Bessarabia switched sides

A traditionally pro-Russian part of Ukraine now feels very differently

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/11/after-russias-invasion-the
-people-of-bessarabia-switched-sides

Feb 11th 2024

WHEN RUSSIA first attacked Ukraine in 2014 Bessarabia was a place to worry about. Less than half of its people identified as Ukrainian. The region was poor and, for historical and economic reasons, many people thought that Vladimir Putin might be their saviour. But Russia’s endeavours to stir up trouble in this strategic Ukrainian borderland have failed. Ukrainian forces beat back Russian attempts to land commandos at the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, and the security services arrested dozens of agents. Although the Russians damaged and closed one of the two bridges linking Bessarabia to the rest of the country, they have failed to shut down the other.

In just over 200 years the ownership of what is now Ukrainian Bessarabia has changed nine times. It is bounded by the Danube and Dniester rivers, the Black Sea to the south and Moldova to the north. Seized from the Ottomans by Russia in the early 19th century, it became Romanian between the world wars and part of Soviet Ukraine after that. Apart from Ukrainians its people include Russians, Moldovans, Gagauz, Bulgarians and Albanians who speak Russian rather than Ukrainian as a lingua franca and for whom Russia was their historical patron.

Oleh Kiper, the governor of the Odessa region, which includes Bessarabia, says that pro-Russian sentiment there dwindled after 2014 and “crashed” in the wake of the Russian invasion in February 2022. One reason why, he says, is that, thanks to help from France, “Russian satellite TV propaganda” has been blocked there since 2015. Since then Bessarabia has been not only peaceful, but a crucial lifeline for Ukraine. Hundreds of lorries thunder through daily, loaded with grain and other goods. They carry vital currency-earning exports to the Danube-river ports of Izmail and Reni, or into Romania and onwards.

A decade ago the main road across Bessarabia from Odessa was awful, and Izmail felt like the dingy end of the world. No longer. The road has been improved and a ferry service opened in 2020, linking the region to Romania and the rest of Europe. Russian attacks have failed to put it out of service. On the Danube in Izmail a Togolese-flagged grain ship rests at anchor; hardy old men do squats on the riverbank nearby before defying a ban on swimming in the river. Others prefer a dip in Izmail’s smart new municipal sport centre.

In the past few years wineries and tourism have flourished in Bessarabia, though the post-Soviet recovery has been patchy. In Izmail money has poured in from up to 8,000 sailors who call this port home. Those who were here when the invasion happened two years ago were caught by the ban on men aged 18-60 leaving the country, but most of those who were at sea have stayed abroad. Although it has been hit by Russian rockets, Izmail has had a good war. Businesses and refugees from now-closed Black Sea ports like Kherson and Mykolaiv have moved here. “People got a sense of pride in being Ukrainian,” says Andriy Abramchenko, the mayor, who made clear in 2014 and in 2022 that his city would have no truck with Russia.

In the predominantly Moldovan village of Hlyboke, history comes alive at the cemetery. The village lies on the banks of Sasyk, a lagoon that suffers from a disastrous Soviet-era attempt to turn it into a freshwater lake. The water is rising and the shoreline is eroding. The bones of Cossacks buried here in the 18th century, and of their descendants, jut out of the graveyard’s sandy cliff edge, eventually tumbling onto the beach below. At the other end of the cemetery lies Sasha Gorun, the school’s history teacher, who died fighting the Russians last May.

Maria Chekir, aged 80, who taught Mr Gorun when she was the headmistress of the school, says she knows no one in the village who supports Russia. Outsiders often assume older people harbour pro-Russian sentiments and nostalgia for Soviet times. In fact, when Russia attacked in 2022, locals were terrified that their troops would land here. Now, says Mrs Chekir, “when I hear people speaking Russian I tell them off. Our guys are fighting Russians and I don’t want to speak Russian anymore.”

Hanna Shelest, an analyst in Odessa, says that she is not surprised that the Russians have failed to stir anti-Ukrainian unrest in Bessarabia. The war in Donbas, in the east, destroyed any local faith in the Kremlin’s propaganda about a peaceful “Russian World”. Meanwhile, the government in Kyiv belatedly began paying attention to the region. Ten years ago farmers from villages like Utkonosivka sold their cabbages to Russia, and blamed Ukraine’s government when war killed that business. Now they have found other markets, and resentment of the government has dissipated.

Although the fear of separatism has evaporated, the threat from corruption has not. Ivan Rusev, an environmental researcher and activist, says that the army has sealed off parts of Bessarabia’s national parks. Park guards now have no power there. Inside the closed zones, he says, people with connections are grabbing land for farming or hunting. Letting corruption flourish under cover of fighting Russia does not bode well. Asked about Mr Rusev’s allegations, Mr Kiper, the governor, said simply: “Thank you for informing me.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, February 12, 2024 7:53 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Ukrainian military observers indicated that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is not as productive as Russian authorities portray it to be, but that the Russian DIB is still capable of sustaining Russia’s war effort. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on February 11 that the Russian Security Council’s own DIB production data for 2023 indicates that the Russian DIB reached a peak output in September 2023 that was 38.9 percent higher than its average 2022 monthly output and has steadily declined in the following months.[10] Mashovets stated that the Russian DIB is struggling to compensate for moderately- and highly-skilled labor shortages and Russia’s inability to obtain the necessary industrial production equipment, spare parts, and servicing to sustain the pace and breadth of DIB production efforts.[11] Mashovets noted that Chinese companies in particular are less willing to provide Russia with equipment and spare parts, as ISW previously reported, and that Russia purchased many industrial production systems from Western states before the full-scale invasion but that Western companies are now unwilling to service or supply parts for these machines due to sanctions.[12]

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko stated that Russia’s reported tank production numbers in recent years largely reflect restored and modernized tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.[13] Kovalenko stated that Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s primary tank manufacturer, can produce roughly 60-70 T-90 tanks per year under perfect conditions and assessed that Uralvagonzavod is likely only producing between three and six new T-90 tanks per month.[14] Kovalenko noted that tank manufacturers Uralvagonzavod, Omsktransmash, and the 103rd Armored Tank Repair Plant in Chita, Zabaykalsky Krai are primarily focused on restoring, repairing, and modernizing Russian tanks and that Uralvagonzavod is the only manufacturer producing new tanks.[15] Kovalenko stated that Russia is only modernizing T-54/55 and T-62 tanks and assessed that these may be Russia’s main battle tanks in the future. Kovalenko added that Russian manufacturers very rarely modernize T-72 and T-80 tanks. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitri Medvedev previously stated that Russian forces received 1,600 tanks in 2023, and Kovalenko attributed this number primarily to restored and modernized rather than serially produced tanks.[16]

Russia’s current limited DIB production capacity and insufficient serial tank production lines are not guarantees that Russia will struggle to produce enough materiel to sustain its war effort at its current pace or in the long term. Russia’s ability to modernize and use tanks retrieved from storage still gives Russian forces an advantage on the battlefield in the overall number of available tanks. Mashovets noted that some newly-produced tanks such as the T-14 Armada are poorly produced whereas older tanks such as T-72s (which Russia actively repairs) are more reliable.[17] Russia has consistently attempted to adapt to the limitations resulting from Western sanctions and to circumvent sanctions and will persist in these efforts. Russia’s DIB may struggle in the near term and increasing sanctions evasion measures and partnerships with states including China and North Korea may help compensate for existing DIB shortcomings in the medium to long term.[18]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-11-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, February 12, 2024 8:08 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

You deny that USA, UK, and USSR briefly were allies in WWII?

You deny that the USA and Soviet Union, and now Russia, have been rivals and cold warriors since 1917?

You deny that USA has been angling to contain, conquer, or destroy Russia, and to regain the grip and wealth that it lost in 2000?

Dood, you have been proving my point with every neocon statement from CNN, MSN, Financial Times, NYT, WaPo, Institute for the Study of War, outlet, think tank, politician, and bureacracy that YOU so helpfully splattered everwhere.

I don't need to cite anybody except YOU to prove my point. Go back and read your own posts, dolt!

If the USA was under a king, an emperor, a Fuhrer, an absolute dictator, you could talk about it as an entity with one mind, one goal, a purpose, a direction. But it is none of those things, does not do those things. The funny thing about Russia, blah blah blah


And, without a scintilla of insight, you prove me right - again- by reflexively adding even MORE neocon crap to the 100+ pages of neocon crap you already posted.


Are you really THAT stupid?

America is an oligarchy. Presidents and Congresses come and go, but neocon policies remain. AMERICANS may not have a united goal, but the elites in charge sure do. You want to find out how little democracy remains here? Just try challenging the narrative in a serious way.

Oh, that's right: you never will.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, February 12, 2024 8:28 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

You deny that USA, UK, and USSR briefly were allies in WWII?

You deny that the USA and Soviet Union, and now Russia, have been rivals and cold warriors since 1917?

You deny that USA has been angling to contain, conquer, or destroy Russia, and to regain the grip and wealth that it lost in 2000?

Dood, you have been proving my point with every neocon statement from CNN, MSN, Financial Times, NYT, WaPo, Institute for the Study of War, outlet, think tank, politician, and bureacracy that YOU so helpfully splattered everwhere.

I don't need to cite anybody except YOU to prove my point. Go back and read your own posts, dolt!

If the USA was under a king, an emperor, a Fuhrer, an absolute dictator, you could talk about it as an entity with one mind, one goal, a purpose, a direction. But it is none of those things, does not do those things. The funny thing about Russia, blah blah blah


And, without a scintilla of insight, you prove me right - again- by reflexively adding even MORE neocon crap to the 100+ pages of neocon crap you already posted.


Are you really THAT stupid?

America is an oligarchy. Presidents and Congresses come and go, but neocon policies remain. AMERICANS may not have a united goal, but the elites in charge sure do. You want to find out how little democracy remains here? Just try challenging the narrative in a serious way.

Oh, that's right: you never will.
Signym, there you go with the "blah blah blah" once again. I have witnessed your brain stop taking information from outside and turn inward to your self-fascinating delusions. There is no conflict here between my values and yours. The conflict is between you and the reality beyond your brain. You are crazy inside your head, Signym. Your understanding of America is that of a crazy person, of someone who would think Trump should be President. I am completely not surprised when life treats you bad because that is what happens to crazy people.

As individuals, Russians act crazy. That has not worked well for them. Same with Trumptards. Their craziness causes their problems, not neoCons, not Democrats, not banks. It is nonstop craziness, year after year, with them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, February 12, 2024 9:09 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


This is what happens when Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian turned politician, turns into a general:

Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavriya group of forces in Avdiivka, announced the reinforcement on Telegram on Saturday. “We strengthen the blocking line, set up additional firing positions and use fresh effective forces,” Tarnavskyi wrote. “Logistical delivery continues.”

That the Ukrainians would reinforce Avdiivka was not a foregone conclusion. In apparently choosing to stay and fight, Ukrainian forces are accepting enormous risk.

After four months of hard fighting, Russian troops from the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies finally breached Avdiivka — a key Ukrainian stronghold just five miles northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk — earlier this month and approached within a few hundred yards of the main road by which the Ukrainian garrison, centered on the 110th Mechanized Brigade, gets supplies into the city.

At that point, Tarnavskyi had two options. Pull back the 110th Brigade’s survivors from the exposed eastern part of the city and consolidate the Ukrainian line in central Avdiivka or just outside the city, to the west.

Or: reinforce the 110th Brigade and try to push the much larger Russian force away from the garrison’s supply lines.

It’s possible it wasn’t Tarnavskyi’s decision to make.

Last week, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky removed his popular top general, the charismatic Valery Zaluzhny, and replaced him with the unpopular former head of the ground forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Zaluzhny has a reputation — deserved or not — for embracing a mobile defense in order to minimize Ukrainian casualties. Syrskyi by contrast has a reputation — again, deserved or not — for accepting high casualties in stubborn, static fights.

It’s possible that, in promoting Syrskyi, Zelensky signaled his intention to fight for Avdiivka. Even at high cost.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/11/ukraine-may-have-depl
oyed-one-its-best-brigades-to-try-to-save-avdiivka/?sh=6c59c7385e95

Ukraine vs Russia is Dumb vs Dumber. Politicians are stupid.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, February 12, 2024 9:43 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line

By Sarah Rainsford | Feb 12, 2024

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68255490

When Pavlo Zhilin and his patrol hit the streets of Cherkasy, men often swerve to avoid them.

Pavlo is a conscription officer looking for soldiers for Ukraine's army.

But almost two years into Russia's full-scale invasion, there's no flood of volunteers to the front line anymore.

Most of those who wanted to fight are either dead, injured or still stuck at the front waiting to be relieved by new recruits.

In the central town of Cherkasy, like elsewhere, finding them isn't easy now that the first burst of enthusiasm and energy has faded.

Ukraine is exhausted.

Pavlo's story

"I don't get it. People are out and about, like the war is somewhere far away. But this is a full-scale invasion, and it's like people still don't care," Pavlo says.

He is frustrated by what he sees as indifference. (Pavlo, it is fear, not indifference.)

"We need everyone to come together like they did on the first day. Everyone was united then, like brothers."

Instead, the security service in Cherkasy is constantly shutting down local social media channels that warn people when the conscription teams are in town and alert them to areas to avoid.

When I ask Pavlo whether he's lost friends in the fighting, he admits that there's "almost no one left" from his entire company.

"The only ones left are [injured] like me. The others are dead."

(Pavlo, it is fear. For Ukrainians who can't be brave, their smartest move is to leave Ukraine and join the cheese-eating surrender monkeys of the EU.)


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, February 12, 2024 9:58 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


The cheese-eating surrender monkeys are resurgent in Germany:

Germans now view issues like migration and the threat from radical Islam as more immediate concerns than the menace in the Kremlin. That’s according to new research published Monday ahead of the Munich Security Conference, a gathering of top political and defense officials which kicks off in Germany on Friday. While Russia was perceived as the number one threat in Germany in last year’s Munich Security Index, it has now slipped back to seventh place in the annual report.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-no-longer-top-threat-germany-g7
-munich-security-conference-concern-ukraine-war-fades/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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