Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Just keeping it real, folks.

The Russians threatened on many occasions to nuke the USA if a Red Line Was Crossed. Russia has so many Red Lines but nothing happens when crossed. That is reality. Nothing happens. It is time for the USA to destroy the Crimean Bridge because Russia's Red Lines are not real.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, November 4, 2023 7:15 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Just keeping it real, folks.
The Russians threatened on many occasions to nuke the USA if a Red Line Was Crossed. Russia has so many Red Lines but nothing happens when crossed. That is reality. Nothing happens. It is time for the USA to destroy the Crimean Bridge because Russia's Red Lines are not real.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Well, since you constantly misquote (i.e. lie) about Kremlin policy, you will constantly be confused about what's happening.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, November 4, 2023 7:37 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Well, since you constantly misquote (i.e. lie) about Kremlin policy, you will constantly be confused about what's happening.

There have been so many Russian Red Lines that have been crossed without consequences that a Wiki article was written to keep track:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

It is time for the USA to destroy the Crimean Bridge because Russia's Red Lines are not real.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, November 4, 2023 7:45 PM

Nah.

Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, November 4, 2023 8:19 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nah.

Fuck Ukraine.

Russia built a bridge on Ukrainian real estate in Crimea. The Ukrainians have tried to knock it down and failed because their military is as dumb as the Russians'. The USA could demolish that bridge on the first try. The USA should try in order to show Trumptards and Chinese that Russia's Red Lines are not real, that the USA experience is all too real for Trumptards, Chinese, and Russians to handle straight up, undiluted.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, November 4, 2023 8:21 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Well, since you constantly misquote (i.e. lie) about Kremlin policy, you will constantly be confused about what's happening.
There have been so many Russian Red Lines that have been crossed without consequences that a Wiki article was written to keep track:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

It is time for the USA to destroy the Crimean Bridge because Russia's Red Lines are not real.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Oh, so you want to provoke a USA war with Russia?

You're as delusional as Zelenskiy.

Ukraine joining NATO was a red line, and -in your delusional state- you misjudged Russia badly. You CONTINUE to misjudge Russia bc you haven't learned. Now you want to try again, with the USA in the balance?

Yanno, there are ignorant people and stupid people. Stupid people are those incapable of learning. That's you, SECOND.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, November 5, 2023 4:49 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Ukraine joining NATO was a red line, and -in your delusional state- you misjudged Russia badly. You CONTINUE to misjudge Russia bc you haven't learned. Now you want to try again, with the USA in the balance?

I guess you failed to notice that Ukraine did NOT join NATO, therefore joining NATO was NOT the cause of Russia invading Ukraine. But some other Russian Red Lines really were crossed, and Russia did NOT nuke the USA. If Russia wants to commit suicide by cop, rather than nuke itself, Russia can nuke the USA. Russia keeps bringing up Hiroshima and Nagasaki because it fears that the USA will kill Saint Petersburg and Moscow if Russia makes a stupid move. Russia should continue to fear it because nuking the USA is the most real Red Line in the World, totally unlike Russia's many, many fake Red Lines.

Ukraine asked the USA for ammo and explosives to destroy Russian property parked on Ukrainian land. Russia responded by threatening to nuke the USA. In the future, when Ukraine asks the USA to destroy the Crimean Bridge because the Russians built it on Ukrainian property without permission, Russia will threaten, as it always does, to nuke the USA. It is another Russian Red Line, but those Red Lines aren't real:

Red lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Rus
sian_red_lines

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, November 5, 2023 4:53 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

US officials have no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate with Ukraine or doubts that Russia can continue its war until Western aid for Ukraine falters.[5] ISW has also not observed any indications that Russia is prepared to enter peace negotiations with Ukraine in good faith. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed the Kremlin’s disagreement with the characterization of the war in Ukraine as a “stalemate” on November 2, stating that the war in Ukraine “has not reached a dead end” and that the Russian military continues to conduct offensive operations.[6] Russia’s offensive operations around Avdiivka indicate that the Kremlin continues to believe that it is possible to achieve its objectives with military force and is unlikely to enter peace negotiations with Ukraine, except to buy time to reconstitute for future offensive operations. Pressure on Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war will likely remain meaningless if not harmful as long as Putin believes that he can achieve his objectives on the battlefield.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-4-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, November 5, 2023 5:42 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

The west must not prevaricate when it comes to seizing Russian reserves

Confiscating and deploying them for Ukraine’s benefit is the morally obvious next step

By Martin Sandbu | Nov 5, 2023

https://www.ft.com/content/42f1669f-15a4-4d02-869b-1561115c12d9

Within days of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale assault on Ukraine, western capitals acted with remarkable determination in blocking Russia’s access to more than $300bn of foreign exchange reserves. In the 20 months since, however, the western sanctions coalition has got itself into ever more contortions trying to avoid the morally obvious next steps: seizing the reserves and deploying them for Ukraine’s benefit.

The ostensible justification is legal obstacles. But if those were really the reason for such timidity, western governments would have been doing all they could to overcome them: pursuing compensation claims under existing law, pushing legislative changes (as Canada, uniquely, has done), and endorsing prominent lawyers’ arguments that Moscow has no legal recourse against asset seizures after its violations of international law.

That this is not happening reveals the legal qualms as vicarious arguments for more self-interested objections to seizure. The most important is the fear that confiscating Russia’s assets will make other non-western countries pull their own reserves out of the west, in case one day the same treatment could be meted out to them.

The concern is that this could destabilise the global financial system and in particular diminish the dollar’s and the euro’s captive investors among central bank reserve managers. The European Central Bank has issued a strong warning to European policymakers against even taxing EU companies making windfall profits on blocked Russian assets — which seems the most that the sanctions coalition is currently willing to contemplate.

The argument looks superficially sound. But it unravels upon a closer look at the facts. If non-western governments were to react to seizure by pulling out their reserves, that horse would have already bolted on at least two occasions: the blocking order itself, and the G7 announcement that accounts will not be unblocked until Russia compensates Ukraine for its destruction.

Yet IMF data shows no subsequent shift of reserves out of the western fold. Where would they go? The largest reserves belong to Beijing, and reflect accumulated Chinese trade surpluses with western commercial partners. Claims on the west will remain denominated in western currencies and governed by its laws. If Beijing wanted to sell out of western assets altogether, it would struggle to find alternatives. The rest of the world is too small to house the scale of claims China wants to rack up.

Other large reserve holders do at least have an alternative to the west, namely to place their official savings in China. That would come at an economic cost: a non-convertible currency is no choice for prudent reserve management. Nor would it make much sense politically. However hypocritical or self-serving emerging countries may find the west, surely no one believes Xi Jinping is less tempted to weaponise financial dependence.

The only realistic prospect is that non-western economies decide not to accumulate such large reserves in the first place, and marginally diversify those they retain. There is some sign of the former. In 2022, global reserves fell by 8 percent in dollar terms before recovering somewhat. Excessive surpluses being a source of international instability, this is not something to fear. And slow diversification is bound to happen anyway as the global economy changes.

The supposed cost of seizing Russia’s reserves, then, is limited. It must in any case be held against the economic gains. They include giving Ukraine the financial means to win, recover and become fit to join the EU. It would also set a salutary precedent, suggesting that a country that flagrantly attacks the international order cannot expect to enjoy its protections.

Other economic arguments are harboured in private. One goes: Europe knows from its history that exacting payments from a defeated wartime foe can make things a lot worse. A hundred years ago, war reparations imposed on Germany were so large that attempting to pay them destabilised the German economy.

But the transfer problem does not apply today. Russia’s reserves are accumulated surpluses from the past. Taking them would not require the Russian economy to produce impossible surpluses in the future. Call it the Weimar fallacy: there is no parallel here to the Versailles treaty’s mistakes.

That such thoughts circulate is a sign of the west’s unreliable intentions. However the war ends, calls to treat Russia “reasonably” will suddenly multiply. All the more reason to seize its reserves now.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, November 5, 2023 1:18 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
US officials have no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate with Ukraine or doubts that Russia can continue its war until Western aid for Ukraine falters.[5] ISW has also not observed any indications that Russia is prepared to enter peace negotiations with Ukraine in good faith. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed the Kremlin’s disagreement with the characterization of the war in Ukraine as a “stalemate” on November 2, stating that the war in Ukraine “has not reached a dead end” and that the Russian military continues to conduct offensive operations.[6] Russia’s offensive operations around Avdiivka indicate that the Kremlin continues to believe that it is possible to achieve its objectives with military force and is unlikely to enter peace negotiations with Ukraine, except to buy time to reconstitute for future offensive operations. Pressure on Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war will likely remain meaningless if not harmful as long as Putin believes that he can achieve his objectives on the battlefield.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-4-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

When the west is willing to negotiate in good faith, Russia will.

The problem is that since the west broke all of its contracts with Russia, blew up Nordstream, backed out of most previous treaties, diddled Russia on Minsk I and Minsk II - and openly bragged about it afterwards - and reneged on the agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, which was initialed last March... is there ANY indication that the west is "agreement capable" now?

No, there isn't.

The west will do only what it's forced to do, and abide by its agreements only if forced to.

That leaves Russia the only option: demilitarize Ukraine and setv up a puppet government (or take over Ukraine completely) and demilitarize NATO.

DOOD, just like the two (potentially four) aircraft carrier groups in the Mideast couldn't POSSIBLY be there for Hamas.. I mean, that would be overkill X20-40 ... Russia is not building up it's military and nuclear deterrence just for Ukraine!

Once again, you're wallowing in complete misjudgement of Russia. Ya gotta stop reading and re-posting boneheads.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 7:54 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war in Ukraine is not a “stalemate” in a comment to the media about Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s essay on the positional nature of warfare in Ukraine.[1] Zelensky stated during a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on November 4 that the current situation on the frontlines is “not a stalemate” even if “time has passed” and “people are tired.” Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine prioritizes the safety of its servicemen and needs US F-16 fighter aircraft and air defenses to gain an advantage over Russian forces.

Zaluzhny’s long essay, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It,” outlines Zaluzhnyi’s consideration of the changes Ukraine must make to overcome the current “positional” stage of the war more clearly than the shorter op-ed and the Economist article it accompanied.
https://infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalContent/ZALUZHNYI_FULL
_VERSION.pdf

Zaluzhnyi wrote that the war “is gradually moving to a positional form” and noted that Ukraine needs to gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; and build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to overcome positional warfare.[2] Positional warfare refers to military operations that do not result in rapid or dramatic changes to the frontline despite both sides‘ continuing efforts to improve their positions. Zaluzhnyi notably did not say that the war was stalemated in his essay or suggest that Ukraine could not succeed. His essay focused, rather, on explaining that the current positional character of the war was a result of technological-tactical parity on the battlefield and the widespread use of mine barriers by Russian and Ukrainian troops. Zaluzhnyi considered the opportunities presented to Ukraine by Russia’s challenges, including the significant losses suffered by Russian aviation; Ukrainian use of Western missile and artillery weapons; and Russia’s failure to take advantage of its human mobilization resources due to political, organizational, and motivational issues. Zaluzhnyi argued that to avoid World War I-style “trench war” and move to maneuver warfare, Ukraine must develop new approaches including technological and other changes, some of which depend on Western support and others require adaptations within the Ukrainian military, state, and society. Zaluzhnyi concluded that positional warfare benefits Russia as it prolongs the war and could allow Russia to achieve superiority in certain areas. Zaluzhnyi argued that Ukraine or Russia could return to rapid maneuver warfare under the right circumstances, which for Ukraine must include Western-provided military resources. Zaluzhnyi’s essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-4-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 8:00 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

When the west is willing to negotiate in good faith, Russia will.

The problem is that since the west broke all of its contracts with Russia, blew up Nordstream, backed out of most previous treaties, diddled Russia on Minsk I and Minsk II - and openly bragged about it afterwards - and reneged on the agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, which was initialed last March... is there ANY indication that the west is "agreement capable" now?

No, there isn't.

The west will do only what it's forced to do, and abide by its agreements only if forced to.

That leaves Russia the only option: demilitarize Ukraine and setv up a puppet government (or take over Ukraine completely) and demilitarize NATO.

DOOD, just like the two (potentially four) aircraft carrier groups in the Mideast couldn't POSSIBLY be there for Hamas.. I mean, that would be overkill X20-40 ... Russia is not building up it's military and nuclear deterrence just for Ukraine!

Once again, you're wallowing in complete misjudgement of Russia. Ya gotta stop reading and re-posting boneheads.

Signym, how many Russians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 64,000,000? How many Ukrainians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 4,000,000?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 1:47 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:
Signym, how many Russians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 64,000,000? How many Ukrainians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 4,000,000?

Seriously dood, who the fuck CARES? That was then. This is now.

You keep harping on historical grievances, like you can change the past. It's like you keep trying to revive Wash.

Not gonna happen. The people responsible for whatever happened in the past are DEAD and you are beating a truly dead horse.

Russia was a monarchy, then a revolutionary government, then a tyranny, then a stultified bureaucracy, then a gangsta capitalist nation, and now... believe it or not... a multiparty democracy with a mixed economy. The people in charge today are not the same as before.

So stop grinding on and on, and stop trying to derail the topic with your off-kilter obsessions.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 1:56 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:
Signym, how many Russians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 64,000,000? How many Ukrainians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 4,000,000?
Seriously dood, who the fuck CARES? That was then. This is now.

You keep harping on historical grievances, like you can make somebody "pay". Not gonna happen. The people responsible for whatever happened in the past are DEAD and you are beating a truly dead horse.

The people in charge now are different. Russia was a monarchy, then a revolutionary government, then a tyranny, then a stultified bureaucracy, then a gangsta capitalist nation, and now... believe it or not... a multiparty democracy with a mixed economy.

So stop grinding on and on, and stop trying to derail the topic with your off-kilter obsessions.

Many empires have foundations built on mounds of corpses, as do the last three empires in the land now called "Russia".

The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire

What history tells us about collapsed empires trying to restore their former possessions.

November 5, 2023, 7:00 AM

By Alexander J. Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/05/russia-ukraine-empire-imperialism
-war/

The Russian Federation is the product of the Soviet empire’s collapse, just as the Soviet Union was the product of imperial Russia’s collapse. Looking at the long history of empires, it’s not at all surprising that today’s Russia has embarked on a project of re-imperialization — the attempt to recreate as much of its former empire as it can. Equally unsurprisingly, Russia’s effort will fail.

The vast majority of seemingly stable empires decay over time until all that is left is the imperial center. The Byzantine and Ottoman empires are perfect examples of this dynamic: Each lost more and more territory until all that remained of the former was greater Constantinople and of the latter the lands that became Turkey. Neither rump state attempted to re-imperialize. The same was true of the European overseas colonial empires: The British withdrew from most of their possessions more or less voluntarily and without firing too many shots, whereas the Dutch, French, Portuguese, and Spanish tried harder to hang on but lost to national liberation movements. All subsequently refrained from re-imperialization.

Russia falls into a different, more volatile category of imperial decline. At the height of their power, some empires fall apart suddenly and comprehensively, usually as the result of cataclysms that rip apart the formal ties between core and periphery. Imperial Russia, Wilhelmine Germany, and the Soviet Union all met this fate. Up to the moment of sudden collapse, the structural and institutional ties between the core and periphery were still vibrant. More importantly, the imperial ideology remained alive and well after the collapse, leading to attempts by the imperial center’s elites to recreate all or parts of their former empires.

Thus, the Bolsheviks — who never concealed their desire (and supposed right) to reconquer all of the Russian Empire’s territories, which even Vladimir Lenin rejected as Russian imperial chauvinism — recreated the empire in the form of the Soviet Union, brutally snuffing out more than a dozen newly independent states who’d seized the chaos as an opportunity to escape Russia’s colonial grip. The Nazis, on the other hand, tried but failed to regain Germany’s lost lands and build an even bigger Reich.

Success or failure of re-imperialization generally depends on the balance of power among the core, periphery, and any intervening states. The Bolsheviks were militarily and economically stronger than most of their neighbors and could revive the Russian Empire. The Nazis took on too many opponents and failed. Here, post-Soviet Russia’s trajectory is highly similar to interwar Germany’s: The German collapse in 1918 and Soviet collapse in 1991 were followed in each case by economic chaos, the delegitimization of a new democracy, and the mobilization of radical forces, which in turn gave rise to a strong leader who revitalized the imperial ideology, promised to restore the empire, and proceeded to annex bits and pieces of the former empire before launching a full-scale war.

Two other empires are illustrative, even though they fit the pattern of sudden collapse and re-imperialization only imperfectly. Although Poles lacked an autonomous state after the last of three partitions in 1795, the imperial ideology of the old Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth thrived, motivating Polish elites to attempt to reestablish the commonwealth in several unsuccessful rebellions in the 1800s. As soon as Polish independence was restored after World War I, the new state set off to reconquer some of the formerly imperial Lithuanian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian territories. Enjoying the support of the Entente powers, and especially France, the Poles succeeded. Only a cataclysmic defeat by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union finally ended Polish imperial dreams.

Austria-Hungary was torn to pieces in a catastrophic defeat but did not attempt to re-imperialize like the other cases in this category. The empire had been irreversibly decaying for half a century. The Hungarians — and later, the Czechs and Poles, assisted by the national movements of other restive nationalities — succeeded in getting Vienna to devolve authority to them to such a degree that leading Austro-Hungarian policymakers even discussed transforming the empire into a federation of semi-autonomous states. Defeat in World War I severed Vienna’s ties with its periphery, much of which immediately sought independence. Austria made no attempt to re-imperialize, as it lacked a virulent imperial ideology, powerful army, and strong economy. Its government was also in disarray. Likewise, Hungarian elites had no imperial plans, confining their ambitions to revanchism over Hungarian territories given by the Western Allies to Czechoslovakia, Romania, and the new Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes.

Russia’s career as an empire — in the forms of imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, and the Russian Federation — began in the 14th century with the relentless expansion of the Grand Duchy of Moscow, reached its totalitarian apex in the 20th century with the subjugation of Central and Eastern Europe, and went into steep decline around 1990, when the Eastern European satellite states broke free and the non-Russian Soviet republics became independent. Even in its diminished form, the Russian Federation — first quasi-democratic, then authoritarian, today fascist — is the heir to a vast internal empire, with dozens of conquered and colonized non-Russian peoples still imprisoned inside its borders.

The political scientist Rein Taagepera graphed the territorial gains and losses of past empires. Not surprisingly, the graphs resemble parabolas: Empires rise, persist, and then fall. Equally unsurprisingly, empires that manage to survive into the persistence phase generally last for centuries. Those that fall quickly usually do so after their founders enjoyed rapid military success and then die, which throws the nascent empire into crisis. Alexander the Great’s sprawling, unconsolidated realm is the classic example of this dynamic.

Some wide, some narrow, the parabolas are never smooth — not even in the seemingly stable persistence phase. Instead, they resemble the movement of the stock market: constant ups and downs that, when viewed over time, do in fact mark upward or downward trends. At times, empires can end temporarily before being revived, as was the case with Byzantium after the Fourth Crusade in 1204. It took several decades for the Byzantine emperors to regain what was left of their terrain. Imperial Russia collapsed near the end of World War I, only to be quickly revived by the Bolsheviks. In turn, the Soviet Union met its end in 1991 and has yet to be resurrected — though not for want of trying. Russian troops occupy parts of Moldova, Georgia, and, of course, Ukraine. Belarus, meanwhile, has been progressively sucked into Russia to the point that it nominally still exists but is largely bereft of sovereignty, having been reduced to a cross between a vassal state and colony.

The question facing Russians, their neighbors, and the world is whether Russian President Vladimir Putin’s realm can succeed in holding on to, and possibly expanding, the territories that it has effectively seized. Or will the Russo-Soviet empire’s remains continue on their downward trajectory until the Russian Federation itself cracks? A look at the factors that have accounted for the rise and fall of other empires will help answer this question.

Necessary conditions for re-imperialization are a powerful military, a strong economy, and an effective government. Facilitating conditions include preexisting institutional ties between the imperial core and the periphery, outside powers that are either indifferent or receptive to imperial expansion, and authoritarian rule at the core. The final push to action is an imperial ideology that spurs the desire for empire.

But consider what happens to a would-be reborn empire if the three necessary conditions are not met — even if the facilitating factors and an imperial ideology are present. If expansion is attempted without a sufficiently strong military and an economy capable of sustaining it, the result will be overreach and failure. Without an effective government, the sustained effort needed for expansion cannot be maintained. Overextension and defeat — and quite possibly regime change or state collapse — become probable.

A few examples from history will illustrate Russia’s inevitable failure to re-imperialize. Western Rome didn’t meet the three conditions, decaying and finally collapsing in the face of declining military effectiveness, an economy incapable of producing a sustainable surplus while under incessant barbarian attacks, and increasingly ineffective governance. The empire’s eastern half was distant from the main barbarian invasion routes, but there were other reasons it survived for another 1,000 years. Except for Byzantine Emperor Justinian’s reconquest of significant territories in the 6th century — territories quickly lost again after his death — the eastern empire refrained from trying to reach its old boundaries. That would have required taking on militarily stronger adversaries, including the Arabs, Seljuk Turks, Bulgars, and Rus’. No less importantly, Byzantium was continually wracked by internal power struggles and lacked an aggressive imperial ideology, preferring to see itself as the bearer of Orthodox Christianity. Byzantium therefore managed its remaining possessions and mostly refrained from overreach. As a result, its decline took many centuries.

Post-Ottoman Turkey refrained from re-imperialization because its ideology had shifted from allegiance to the empire to allegiance to the nation-state. Kemal Ataturk ethnically cleansed Asia Minor of the Greek population, but he avoided expanding Turkey’s boundaries to include Greece, focusing instead on relocating Turks from the former empire into the new country. Strong outside powers also hemmed in the new state.

The European overseas colonial powers all shared an imperial ideology as they expanded, but they abandoned it as they faced their own military and economic weaknesses following two world wars, national liberation struggles, and the international community’s growing condemnation. They didn’t all abandon their empires without a fight, but neither did they attempt to revive them.

Post-World War I Germany retained the aggressively imperial Weltmacht ideology that had motivated Emperor Wilhelm II’s expansionist policies. Despite the post-war economic collapse, the economy quickly revived after the Nazis took power in 1933. Adolf Hitler also revived the military and established a powerful government. With the necessary conditions and ideology in place, Nazi Germany unsurprisingly embarked on re-imperialization. It might have succeeded had Hitler confined his ambitions to the large swaths of Europe he controlled by 1941. After invading the Soviet Union and declaring war on the United States, however, he created a power imbalance that made defeat inevitable.

Like Nazi Germany, the Russian Federation will fail to re-imperialize. Its military is demonstrably mediocre, its economy is about as big as that of Italy or Texas, and its governance has become increasingly ineffective and unstable as elites begin to jockey for power in what they view as the rapidly approaching post-Putin era. The immediate future could be even worse, especially if the regime remains guided by the whims of a single autocrat and continues to discourage technological innovation and economic growth.

In a word, Russia’s imperial aspirations are dead, even if the Kremlin thinks otherwise. And the man who presided over their destruction is Putin. Could things have worked out differently for Russia? Could Russia have resisted the re-imperialization temptation? Given the vitality of its imperial ideology and the strength of its institutional and economic ties with the former Soviet republics and, at least until recently, the former Eastern Bloc states, the answer is probably no.

What should the West do? Since the Russian Federation’s re-imperialization project is doomed, all that anyone can realistically do is prolong or hasten the process, not stop it. Prolonging it means prolonging the misery incurred by the non-Russians targeted for re-annexation and by the Russians tasked with bringing misery to these targets. Anything that hastens re-imperialization’s inevitable end would reduce death and destruction.

Specifically, because the history of empires leads us to expect Russian imperialism’s demise, it makes sense for the West to take a page from the philosopher Karl Marx and “hasten the birth pangs of history.” Fortunately for the West, whose attention is currently taken up by the crisis in the Middle East, the United States and its allies only need to do a bit more than what they are already doing: supporting Ukraine in liberating its territories from Russian occupation by providing it with the weapons it needs — rather sooner than later. Should the West continue to slow-roll military deliveries — or even decrease them — it will only prolong an inevitable process and increase the suffering. Either way, Russian re-imperialization is destined to fail.

Since Putin has thrown all his resources and political capital at the war against Ukraine, stopping him there means stopping him and his re-imperialization project everywhere. As much as defeat will induce some in the Russian elite and general population to reconsider questions of empire, there is, alas, no reason to believe that Russia’s imperial ideology will meet a quick end. Rather, it will be long-term decay that guarantees that outcome. Russia will become a more or less normal, non-imperial nation-state only if it continues to lose territory it has occupied, and not just in Ukraine — a prospect that seems perfectly possible if Russia loses in Ukraine, the Putin regime collapses, and Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, and even some of the non-Russian peoples in the Russian Federation decide to escape the resulting chaos by retaking their occupied territories or otherwise cutting ties with Moscow. In the absence of defeat, a militarily and economically weak and misgoverned Russia will remain in thrall to the ideology and attempt, yet again, to re-imperialize — all but certainly with the same results: failure, death, and destruction.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 4:22 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Russia Builds New Railway Amid Fears of Ukraine Attack on 'High-Risk' Bridge

By Kaitlin Lewis | Nov 06, 2023 at 2:42 PM EST

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-railway-ukraine-bridge-crimea-1841302

Construction is underway for a new railway to connect the Crimea Peninsula to mainland Russia amid Ukraine's consistent attacks on the Crimean Bridge, according to Russian reports.

Yevgeny Balitsky, Moscow's appointed head of the occupied Zaporizhzhia region in southeastern Ukraine, told reporters Monday that the new railway has begun near the city of Donetsk and will run from Yakymivka, a settlement in Zaporizhzhia, to Rostov, according to the Russian state-owned outlet RIA Novosti.

"By building a railway line...we will solve the problems of the military," Balitsky said.

In recent months, Ukraine has increased its attacks on the Kerch Strait Bridge that links Crimea — which was annexed by Russia in 2014 — to the rest of Russia. Crimea has served as a hub for Russia's military since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Balitsky noted to reporters Monday that the new railway will help Russia export goods like grains, iron and coal to the rest of the country. He also said that the project would help Moscow's military by avoiding the Kerch Strait Bridge.

"Because it is not only far to drive across the Crimean Bridge, but today the bridge is also a high-risk object," Balitsky said, reported RIA Novosti.

Newsweek reached out to the Kremlin's press team via email for more information.

U.K.'s defense ministry previously assessed that the Kerch Strait Bridge has become a significant security burden for Moscow. Ukraine struck the 12-mile structure in October 2022 and again in July, causing significant damage to the road and railway.

"Although fully operational, use of the bridge remains restricted due to procedures enacted following the first Ukrainian attack in October 2022. Trucks and fuel supplies continue to be moved by ferry," British defense officials said in October.

On Wednesday, footage circulated online of smoke billowing from the Crimean Bridge after Russian authorities in the area warned of aerial attacks on the peninsula. According to local reports, an air raid alert sounded for roughly two hours and traffic on the bridge was brought to a halt.

Kyiv has vowed that its war with Russia will not end until the Crimea peninsula is returned to Ukrainian control.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 8:58 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:
Signym, how many Russians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 64,000,000? How many Ukrainians did Russia kill because of politics if the number is not 4,000,000?

SIGYN: Seriously dood, who the fuck CARES? That was then. This is now.
You keep harping on historical grievances, like you can make somebody "pay". Not gonna happen. The people responsible for whatever happened in the past are DEAD and you are beating a truly dead horse.
The people in charge now are different. Russia was a monarchy, then a revolutionary government, then a tyranny, then a stultified bureaucracy, then a gangsta capitalist nation, and now... believe it or not... a multiparty democracy with a mixed economy.

So stop grinding on and on, and stop trying to derail the topic with your off-kilter obsessions.

SECOND: Many empires have foundations built on mounds of corpses, as do the last three empires in the land now called "Russia".

The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire

What history tells us about collapsed empires trying to restore their former possessions.

Russia is not trying to create an "empire", it's trying to secure its border.
So the whole article is a waste of words.

Now, if you want to talk about the dangers of a crumbling empire trying to remain world hegemon, just look at our foreign and military policies, which are equal parts flailing, stupidity and arrogance.

Exemplified by your posts.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 10:08 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

And in real news...

20 Brigade officers and commanders were killed, and an additional 20-30 were injured when they gathered to celebrate their regiment's founding with a celebration not far from the front line.

Quote:
Ukrainian military officers investigated over awards ceremony at which 19 soldiers were killed

Ukraine on Monday launched a criminal investigation into military officers who organized a troop-honoring ceremony that was hit by a Russian missile strike, killing 19 soldiers in one of the deadliest single attacks reported by Ukrainian forces.

The State Bureau of Investigation said it aims to hold military officials accountable for the Rocket Forces and Artillery Day event held Friday near the front line in Zaporizhzhia, where Russian reconnaissance drones could see them

The carnage sparked a wave of criticism among Ukrainians who questioned on social media the planning of an event so close to the battlefield. President Volodymyr Zelensky lamented the deaths of the men of the 128th Separate Mountain-Assault Brigade of Zakarpattia as a “tragedy that could’ve been avoided.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ukrainian-military-officers-inves
tigated-for-holding-awards-ceremony-at-which-19-soldiers-were-killed/ar-AA1jtEmj

There was speculation that the Russian military was tipped off the the gathering by a traitor. Another their is that Russia noticed a concentration of cell phones at the location. This article insinuated it was a drone.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 11:01 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Russia is not trying to create an "empire", it's trying to secure its border.
So the whole article is a waste of words.

Now, if you want to talk about the dangers of a crumbling empire trying to remain world hegemon, just look at our foreign and military policies, which are equal parts flailing, stupidity and arrogance.

Exemplified by your posts.

If what you say is true, Americans would be fleeing to Russia. But they are not. Instead, it is Russians fleeing Russia.

5 Million Russian Citizens Left Russia Under Putin
Young, well-educated Russians are seeking a better life abroad.
By Uliana Pavlova, Updated: Oct. 13, 2021
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/10/13/5-million-russian-citizens-l
eft-russia-under-putin-a75246

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 1:21 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Nah ...

Even as Rome crumbled, not many people fled Rome. As the British Empire dwindled, who fled Britain? Anyone flee France, or Spain, as THEIR empires broke?

As long as you an convince people that theirs is the best, people won't leave, no matter how horrible it is.

BTW, I see youre trying to derail the topic from the fact that Russia is beating NATO in Ukraine.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 1:36 AM

I'm struggling these days to even understand the point of Second's existence.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 5:27 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm struggling these days to even understand the point of Second's existence.

Trumptards are self-destructive but it is not my problem when they suffer and die in vain. The same goes for Russians killing themselves. It is their problem. Godspeed them to their doom.

Ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin argued that Russian forces will be “even less capable of offensive operations than they are now” by spring 2024 given the current nature of Russian offensive operations along the frontline.[1] Girkin’s wife, Miroslava Reginskaya, published a hand-written letter from Girkin dated October 26, in which he summarized the frontline situation in Ukraine for the month of October. Girkin claimed that the situation for Russian forces is “gradually deteriorating” and that Russian forces are showcasing “growing weakness (compared to [Ukraine’s] capabilities,” despite Russia’s “generally successful repulsion” of the Ukrainian offensive over the summer and fall of 2023. Girkin argued that Russian forces were not only unable to start broad offensive operations at the beginning of the fall season but were also unable to complete even limited offensive operations to achieve operationally significant goals – namely around Kupyansk, Lyman, and Avdiivka. Girkin claimed that Russian forces failed to advance in the Kupyansk direction and are now impaled in battles on “the distant approaches to the city,” while also failing to change the situation in the Lyman direction. Girkin added that tactical advances around Avdiivka led to significant losses in Russian manpower and equipment and did not lead to the further development of the Russian offensive. Girkin observed that the Avdiivka offensive demonstrated Russian forces’ inability “to achieve superiority on a very narrow sector of the front” despite Russia’s careful preparations, good coordination of strike forces and means for the initial stage of the offensive, and the abundance of ammunition “unheard of since the assault on Bakhmut.”

Girkin suggested that Russian efforts to repel Ukrainian localized attacks across the frontline and simultaneous fall-winter offensive operations will likely degrade Russian offensive and defensive potential by spring 2024. Girkin noted that Russian forces would need to spend the rest of the fall-winter campaign on the defensive to try to eliminate emerging operational crises – such as the Ukrainian presence in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. Girkin argued that Russian forces will continue to be “incapable of any broad offensive actions” even if Ukrainian forces are unable to “knock out” Russian frontline units, fail to achieve a breakthrough over the fall-winter season, and are exhausted. Girkin, however, added that such a “positional scenario” is not guaranteed and that he fears that Ukrainian forces may be successful in breaking Russian forces that have already been exhausted by months of combat. Girkin’s suggestion that ongoing Russian offensive operations are harming the prospects for future Russian operations is notable because Russian forces still must repel Ukrainian offensive operations while attempting to initiate their own offensives. The timing of current Russian offensives around Avdiivka was also somewhat odd and suboptimal because the rainy and muddy weather has predictably hindered Russian operations.[2] ISW continues to assess that fall and winter weather conditions are unlikely to preclude Russian or Ukrainian offensives.[3]

Girkin implied that additional Western military aid to Ukraine and the lack of mobilization in Russia could allow Ukraine to end positional warfare and conduct successful offensive operations in 2024. Girkin stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to use Western-provided materiel to target the Russian rear and even destroy the Berdyansk airfield in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast against the backdrop of Russian offensives in Avdiivka. Girkin implied that Ukrainian forces would continue to devastate the Russian rear over the winter as Russian forces continued to push for limited offensive operations. Girkin stated that once Ukraine receives Western-provided F-16 fighter jets, Ukrainian forces could have localized advantages for a short period of time on any section of the frontline. Girkin added that Ukraine could be “seriously strengthened in military-technical terms” with Western military equipment. Girkin also claimed that Ukraine currently has superiority in manpower over Russian forces due to a lack of mobilization in Russia and that the Kremlin is unlikely to call up mobilization before spring 2024 due to upcoming presidential elections. Girkin noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is unlikely to recruit “hundreds of thousands” of new contract servicemen because Russia has exhausted the recruitment potential for new contract servicemen and volunteers. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s long essay, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It,” similarly argues that Western-provided military equipment and air superiority among other things will allow Ukraine to overcome positional warfare.[4]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-6-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 5:40 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Nah ...

Even as Rome crumbled, not many people fled Rome. As the British Empire dwindled, who fled Britain? Anyone flee France, or Spain, as THEIR empires broke?

As long as you an convince people that theirs is the best, people won't leave, no matter how horrible it is.

BTW, I see youre trying to derail the topic from the fact that Russia is beating NATO in Ukraine.

The essay contrasted the smart move of the British (leave your colonies with minimal bloodshed) and the dumb move (Tsar Nicholas II fell and then the Bolsheviks killed millions in Ukraine to gather up the fallen pieces of Tsar Nicholas' Empire). Signym, you are stupider than you can understand about the history of Empires, including the three different Empires on the land called "Russia". Putin's Empire is killing hundreds of thousands, eventually maybe millions, trying to gather up the fallen pieces of the Soviet Union's Empire.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 7:07 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

If Putin really desired land, he would have gone 'all in' on obliterating Ukrainians. As it is, he's being very sparing of civilians. Unlike Israel.

You have many fixations, and they're leeping you from seeing the truth.
I think you're a lost cause. Not even reality will wake you up.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 7:18 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

https://sonar21.com/meanwhile-back-in-ukraine-desperation-sets-in/
Some pretty disturbing images coming out of Ukraine. A video appeared on Telegram today (Sunday) that shows two English speakers (they sound American) coming out of a bunker and trying to persuade two retreating Ukrainian soldiers to return to their lines. The Ukrainians execute the English speaking soldiers.

you need Rumble to watch it

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 10:15 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm struggling these days to even understand the point of Second's existence.
Trumptards are self-destructive but it is not my problem when they suffer and die in vain. The same goes for Russians killing themselves. It is their problem. Godspeed them to their doom.

You say that, but boy do you talk about it a lot for a guy who says it isn't his problem.

One might even call it an obsession.

Get some help.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 10:22 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
If Putin really desired land, he would have gone 'all in' on obliterating Ukrainians. As it is, he's being very sparing of civilians. Unlike Israel.

You have many fixations, and they're leeping you from seeing the truth.
I think you're a lost cause. Not even reality will wake you up.

Obliterating Ukrainians? How, short of nuking Ukraine? But Putin did blow up the Kakhovka Dam, which is as close to obliteration as Russia can achieve, short of blowing up a nuclear power plant in Ukraine:

A disaster in photos: Nova Kakhovka dam breach in Ukraine
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/st
ories/disaster-photos-nova-kakhovka-dam-breach-ukraine_en

Signym, you said Ukraine blew up its own dam, but that is a patented falsehood:

Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam Responsibility
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam#Responsi
bility

Signym, I almost forgot that Russia murdered civilians by the thousands, torturing some to death, but you also said that wasn't Russia. Instead, it was the Ukrainians torturing and killing Ukrainians according to you. That is so false of you, Signym, but what's new about that?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 10:24 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Russia Formally Quits Post-Cold War Arms Treaty With Europe

Russia has formally withdrawn from a key conventional arms control treaty with Europe decades after suspending cooperation over NATO expansion, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Tuesday.

The 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) placed limits on the number of conventional weapons that could be deployed by NATO and Warsaw Pact countries west of the Ural Mountains.

The collapse of the Soviet Union changed strategic balances, leading to Russia’s ratification of a revised CFE in 1999.

In 2007, Russia imposed a moratorium on participating in the CFE and halted participation in its consulting group in 2015, blaming NATO countries for failing to ratify the updated treaty.

The United States and other NATO members called on Russia to first withdraw forces from separatist territories in Georgia and Moldova before signing the updated CFE.

“At 00:00 on Nov. 7, 2023, the procedure established by the CFE for Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty was completed,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

“Thus, the international legal document... has finally become history for Russia.,” it said in a statement.

In May, President Vladimir Putin signed a law formally exiting CFE, with the Kremlin saying at the time that the Russian leader's signature was a formality because the treaty was “already dead.”

The Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that “even the formal preservation of CFE has become unacceptable from the standpoint of Russia’s fundamental security interests.”

It noted that Moscow’s move stemmed from NATO bearing “direct responsibility” in fomenting the invasion of Ukraine, as well as the U.S.-led military alliance accepting Finland's membership and considering Sweden’s application.

NATO has placed the blame on Russia for failing to comply with CFE obligations and said Moscow’s exit would undermine Euro-Atlantic security.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/07/russia-formally-quits-post-c
old-war-arms-treaty-with-europe-a83017

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 10:34 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm struggling these days to even understand the point of Second's existence.
Trumptards are self-destructive but it is not my problem when they suffer and die in vain. The same goes for Russians killing themselves. It is their problem. Godspeed them to their doom.

You say that, but boy do you talk about it a lot for a guy who says it isn't his problem.

One might even call it an obsession.

Get some help.

Have you stopped smoking, 6ix? Rush Limbaugh died of smoking, but he said in the end that it wasn't his fault he got lung cancer. Trump agreed and gave Rush the Medal of Freedom. When Trumptards die young, it is never their fault. Just ask a dying Trumptard and they will tell you it was the Democrats' fault. Those warning labels about cigarettes are part of a plot by Democrats to take away the freedom to kill yourself, or as Trumptards formulate it: The Right to Live As You Please Without Government Interference. Even the high taxes on cigarettes is a plot by Democrats.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 10:45 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm struggling these days to even understand the point of Second's existence.
Trumptards are self-destructive but it is not my problem when they suffer and die in vain. The same goes for Russians killing themselves. It is their problem. Godspeed them to their doom.

You say that, but boy do you talk about it a lot for a guy who says it isn't his problem.

One might even call it an obsession.

Get some help.
Have you stopped smoking, 6ix? Rush Limbaugh died of smoking, but he said in the end that it wasn't his fault he got lung cancer. Trump agreed and gave Rush the Medal of Freedom. When Trumptards die young, it is never their fault. Just ask a dying Trumptard and they will tell you it was the Democrats' fault. Those warning labels about cigarettes are part of a plot by Democrats to take away the freedom to kill yourself, or as Trumptards formulate it: The Right to Live As You Please Without Government Interference. Even the high taxes on cigarettes is a plot by Democrats.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah...

There's more of that worrying about shit that doesn't matter to you again.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 11:05 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah...

There's more of that worrying about shit that doesn't matter to you again.

You smoke. Not a surprise.

Medicare can't be expanded to people younger than 65 because the Trumptards overuse the healthcare system. How? Well, since Trumptards believe what they do is nobody's business but their own, the Trumptards are gluttons, smokers, drunks, drug addicts, rotten teeth, etc. Name a bad lifestyle and Trumptards will make doing it their Flag of Freedom. And the result is a tragedy for everybody who is not a Trumptard and can't get the low-priced healthcare that those 65 and older get.

Since Trumptards hang out mostly with other Trumptards, they see tragedy as "normal" and the fault of Democrats, who wisely avoid contact with those assholes. I'm an exception since I work with them all the time, but these asshole Trumptards are grossly increasing my costs for providing health insurance.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 11:10 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah...

There's more of that worrying about shit that doesn't matter to you again.

Medicare can't be expanded to people younger than 65 because the Trumptards overuse the healthcare system. How? Well, since Trumptards believe what they do is nobody's business but their own, the Trumptards are gluttons, smokers, drunks, drug addicts, rotten teeth, etc. Name a bad lifestyle and Trumptards will make doing it their Flag of Freedom. And the result is a tragedy for everybody who is not a Trumptard and can't get the low-priced healthcare that those 65 and older get.

This is stupid talk from a stupid person.

Nobody in the world believes that Democrat voters aren't equally to blame for having self-destructive habits. Even Ted doesn't believe that.

Quote:
Since Trumptards hang out mostly with other Trumptards, they see tragedy as "normal" and the fault of Democrats, who wisely avoid contact with those assholes. I'm an exception since I work with them all the time, but these asshole Trumptards are grossly increasing my costs for providing health insurance.

Yeah. Uh huh.

Remember this? You posted it just a few hours ago:

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm struggling these days to even understand the point of Second's existence.
Trumptards are self-destructive but it is not my problem when they suffer and die in vain. The same goes for Russians killing themselves. It is their problem. Godspeed them to their doom.

Oh. So it IS your problem then. I see.

That wasn't hard. You are so easy to manipulate.

That's a character trait of stupid people.

Maybe if you actually did work at your fake company that you don't own, it wouldn't be failing financially. You spend far too much time posting on FFF.net to an audience of one when you should be figuring out why your business is going bankrupt.

Might I suggest just firing all the Trumptards? You've said in the past you fire people based off their political beliefs all the time. I don't understand what the problem is. Why are there even still any Trumptards working at your fake company in 2023?

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 11:30 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Oh. So it IS your problem then. I see.

That wasn't hard. You are so easy to manipulate.

That's a character trait of stupid people.

This is why creatures like you or the Russians are trouble for people. Your kind is just so thickheaded and slow. Talking to you is worthless. Instead, you have to be trained like a Dog and Pony show in a Circus. Methods used on dogs are what works with non-humans such as Trumptards and Russians. It is pretty hard to train a dog or Trumptard to be financially responsible, for example, which is why most Trumptards have money problems and most dogs have no money at all.

Top 10 Effective Dog Training Methods: A Complete Guide on Dog Training
https://theanimalcare.org/dog-training-methods/

Method 8, Negative Reinforcement, is being used on Russians to train them to stay off the Ukrainians' lawns and, instead, poop back in Russia where their owner, Vladimir Putin, can pick up their dog do-do.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 11:34 AM

I'm done embarrassing you this morning.

I have shit to do and naps to take.

Have fun jerking your war boner today, bitch.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 3:10 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
If Putin really desired land, he would have gone 'all in' on obliterating Ukrainians. As it is, he's being very sparing of civilians. Unlike Israel.

You have many fixations, and they're leeping you from seeing the truth.
I think you're a lost cause. Not even reality will wake you up.

SECOND: Obliterating Ukrainians? How, short of nuking Ukraine?

Jeez, you're stupid! How about carpet-bombing Kiev, Karkhiv, Odessa, and Lvov? Russia can do it. You know they can, but they haven't .

Quote:
But Putin did blow up the Kakhovka Dam,

Stupid again!
The Dneiper is -or was- part of Russia's defenses against attack from the west in Kherson. With the river at low levels Ukrainian troops can cross the river more easily, which is what they're doing now.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 3:13 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

BTW, I know you toss Trump! and TRUMPTARDS! and Stalin! as distractions from the ever-preent reality that Ukraine is getting it's ass handed to it.

So, back to real news...

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 6:11 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
BTW, I know you toss Trump! and TRUMPTARDS! and Stalin! as distractions from the ever-preent reality that Ukraine is getting it's ass handed to it.

So, back to real news...

Do you think the world is deterministic? That Russia's win is predetermined? Given a few more months/years, it is all over for Ukraine? I think it is not. That doesn't mean that Putin could have done differently than he did. Perhaps he doesn't have free will.

From a review of the book Determined: Life Without Free Will by Robert Sapolsky

If our actions are “determined” in this way, the moral implications are dizzying. It becomes hard to see how to blame a Harold Shipman or Charles Manson – or a Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump – for anything they do.

Perhaps because denying free will feels so counterintuitive – while talk of inner ghosts is plainly unscientific – a majority of philosophers are “compatibilists”. They believe our actions are in fact determined, but that we nonetheless have free will. In a free-will sceptic such as me, this is apt to prompt murmurings about having one’s cake and eating it.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/oct/24/determined-life-without-
free-will-by-robert-sapolsky-review-the-hard-science-of-decisions

It just so happens that you can read that Robert Sapolsky book for free by downloading from https://libgen.is//search.php?&req=Robert+Sapolsky&phrase=1&am
p;view=simple&column=def&sort=year&sortmode=DESC

". . . when you behave in a particular way, which is to say when your brain has generated a particular behavior, it is because of the determinism that came just before, which was caused by the determinism just before that, and before that, all the way down. The approach of this book is to show how that determinism works, to explore how the biology over which you had no control, interacting with environment over which you had no control, made you you. And when people claim that there are causeless causes of your behavior that they call “free will,” they have (a) failed to recognize or not learned about the determinism lurking beneath the surface and/or (b) erroneously concluded that the rarefied aspects of the universe that do work indeterministically can explain your character, morals, and behavior."

Well, well, well. That gives me an unpleasant picture of just how inflexible, or maybe preprogrammed people are. They are not free. 6ix has got to smoke. Putin has got to lie and kill. Trump has to be a crook. They have no choice.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 6:19 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
If Putin really desired land, he would have gone 'all in' on obliterating Ukrainians. As it is, he's being very sparing of civilians. Unlike Israel.

You have many fixations, and they're leeping you from seeing the truth.
I think you're a lost cause. Not even reality will wake you up.

SECOND: Obliterating Ukrainians? How, short of nuking Ukraine?

Jeez, you're stupid! How about carpet-bombing Kiev, Karkhiv, Odessa, and Lvov? Russia can do it. You know they can, but they haven't .

Quote:
But Putin did blow up the Kakhovka Dam,

Stupid again!
The Dneiper is -or was- part of Russia's defenses against attack from the west in Kherson. With the river at low levels Ukrainian troops can cross the river more easily, which is what they're doing now.

No. And no. Russia controlled that dam when it broke. There were no Ukrainians to move tons of explosives into the concrete-lined passages inside the dam. And Russia cannot fly a bomber over Ukrainian cities because the bombers will be shot down. Ukrainian air defenses can hit subsonic planes even more easily than hitting supersonic missiles.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 7:11 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

So, since Russia controlled the dam, WHY would they blow it up?? It's the same argument as Nordstream: if they wanted to release water all they would need to do is open the gates!
SECOND, you overlook the most basic things!

And Russia doesn't have to bomb distant cities, they have lots and lots of missiles of all kinds.

Unlike you I've been following the day-to-day with geolocated videos. So far, Russian strikes have been strictly at military or logistic targets

When you know what's going on let me know. Until then? STFU.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 12:15 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 10th):
Not a lot of news about Russia or Ukraine today, huh?

Poor Zelensky. I hope he stocked up his bunker and has his go bag ready. That dude is a dead man walking now.

I'm pretty sure that October 10th was the first time I made that prediction. I made it at least that far back, anyhow.

Putin is About to Kill Zelensky as Money Laundering Scam Comes to End

Look at Child Rapist Zelensky begging the US for cash.

He's even asking Donald Trump for money now.

Come on, man! Give the brother some money. He even promises that he'll pay it back after the war is over.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 5:06 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

A prominent pro-war Russian milblogger who is typically optimistic about Russian capabilities expressed a relatively pessimistic assessment of the war and emphasized the need for the Kremlin to fully mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to a wartime footing to win. The milblogger claimed on November 7 that Ukraine is committed to an “exhausting war” against Russia and that Russia needs “enormous combat potential” and an “accurate calculation” of its capabilities to beat Ukraine.[11] Another Russian milblogger expressed surprise that a milblogger who was previously so positive in his assessments of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine would openly admit to the need for a wider mobilization of the Russian economy in the face of a long war.[12] The Kremlin has largely appeared unwilling to conduct wider economic mobilization, and the milblogger's call to change this line is noteworthy.[13] Yet another Russian milblogger claimed that Russia is “paying terribly” for the Kremlin’s unwillingness to commit to the war fully.[14] The milbloggers’ suggestion to further mobilize the Russian economy appears to be part of recent discussions in the Russian information space about operational changes that could help Russian forces overcome challenges in Ukraine, likely in response to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s recent essay on the subject of “positional warfare.”[15] Zaluzhnyi’s essay appears to have prompted even the most positive Russian milbloggers to make more straight and honest assessments of the Russian war effort.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-7-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 1:11 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
A prominent pro-war Russian milblogger who is typically optimistic about Russian capabilities expressed a relatively pessimistic assessment of the war and emphasized the need for the Kremlin to fully mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to a wartime footing to win. The milblogger claimed on November 7 that Ukraine is committed to an “exhausting war” against Russia and that Russia needs “enormous combat potential” and an “accurate calculation” of its capabilities to beat Ukraine.

Zaluzhny may be committed to a positional war, but he's limited by munitions and, more importantly, manpower. He's as delusional as Zelensky, just in a different way. The west using Ukraine as a proxy protects the west from large manpower losses, but it also limits the west to Ukraine's transportation, anti-air, air, and (especially) manpower resources. As a chemist, like chemical reactions, I think of war as having a "rate limiting step" or potentially several rate limiting steps. There are many things you need to successfully wage war. And war can only be waged at the rate that you can apply resources to the front. If you can't replace X, Y, and Z faster than you're losing them, or you can't move them to where you need them, then ultimately you'll lose the war.

A blogger, Andrei Martyanov, who has attended Soviet war college, explains that at upper military levels the Soviets, and now Russians, can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 1:49 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Military Summary Channel today:

Russian successfully issues a deepfake video of Zaluzhny saying that Zelenskiy has started a genocide of the Ukrainian people, soldiers should pick up their guns and head to Kiev. There's more, you'll just have to watch the video yourself. It's really convincing.

Also, Kiev ordered a war crime to be committed. Ukraine military shelled Dontesk city civilians with cluster munitions. AGAIN.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 2:10 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Zaluzhny may be committed to a positional war, but he's limited by munitions and, more importantly, manpower. He's as delusional as Zelensky, just in a different way. The west using Ukraine as a proxy protects the west from large manpower losses, but it also limits the west to Ukraine's transportation, anti-air, air, and (especially) manpower resources. As a chemist, like chemical reactions, I think of war as having a "rate limiting step" or potentially several rate limiting steps. There are many things you need to successfully wage war. And war can only be waged at the rate that you can apply resources to the front. If you can't replace X, Y, and Z faster than you're losing them, or you can't move them to where you need them, then ultimately you'll lose the war.

A blogger, Andrei Martyanov, who has attended Soviet war college, explains that at upper military levels the Soviets, and now Russians, can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work.

There is an abundance of chemicals that can fall into Ukraine and cause every Russian to burst into flames and burn to ashes. Every European country can fight on Ukraine's side. Russia's threats to go nuclear? It made that too many times. Russia's threat to invade countries coming to help Ukraine? Russia can't even handle Ukraine. But fortunately for Russia, most Europeans are cheese-eating surrender monkeys. Russians can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work with frightened monkeys.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 3:44 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Zaluzhny may be committed to a positional war, but he's limited by munitions and, more importantly, manpower. He's as delusional as Zelensky, just in a different way. The west using Ukraine as a proxy protects the west from large manpower losses, but it also limits the west to Ukraine's transportation, anti-air, air, and (especially) manpower resources. As a chemist, like chemical reactions, I think of war as having a "rate limiting step" or potentially several rate limiting steps. There are many things you need to successfully wage war. And war can only be waged at the rate that you can apply resources to the front. If you can't replace X, Y, and Z faster than you're losing them, or you can't move them to where you need them, then ultimately you'll lose the war.

A blogger, Andrei Martyanov, who has attended Soviet war college, explains that at upper military levels the Soviets, and now Russians, can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work.
There is an abundance of chemicals that can fall into Ukraine and cause every Russian to burst into flames and burn to ashes. Every European country can fight on Ukraine's side. Russia's threats to go nuclear? It made that too many times. Russia's threat to invade countries coming to help Ukraine? Russia can't even handle Ukraine. But fortunately for Russia, most Europeans are cheese-eating surrender monkeys. Russians can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work with frightened monkeys.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Every European nation COULD, but they haven't yet and, most likely, won't. European nations have given Kiev as many weapons as they can spare, and sometimes more.
They shot themselves economically in the foot by cutting themselves off from cheap Russian energy and the USA blowing up Nordstream kind of blew up Germany s economy.

So popular feeling is drifting against further involvement in Ukraine. How far the governments will go is anyone's guess, but I expect we'll see a few electoral "regime changes" over the next 6-9 months, and by then the war will be over.

*****

Quote:
;Marching Toward a Night of the Long Knives in Ukraine

In fact in an article from only a couple months ago, Politico seemed to be laying the groundwork of who would take control if Zelensky’s presidential tenure happened to suffer an ‘unscheduled rapid disassembly’:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/marching-toward-a-night-of-the-lon
g
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 4:24 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Every European nation COULD, but they haven't yet and, most likely, won't. European nations have given Kiev as many weapons as they can spare, and sometimes more.
They shot themselves economically in the foot by cutting themselves off from cheap Russian energy and the USA blowing up Nordstream kind of blew up Germany s economy.

So popular feeling is drifting against further involvement in Ukraine. How far the governments will go is anyone's guess, but I expect we'll see a few electoral "regime changes" over the next 6-9 months, and by then the war will be over.

Editorializing about the feckless Europeans, or as I call them, cheese-eating surrender monkeys:

Opinion: Who a ‘stalemate’ in Ukraine really benefits

By Jade McGlynn | 6:20 AM EST, Wed November 8, 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/08/opinions/ukraine-russia-stalemate-nato-
mcglynn/index.html

Editor’s Note: Jade McGlynn is a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of two books, “Russia’s War” and ”Memory Makers: The Politics of the Past in Putin’s Russia.”

Responses to the recent statements by the commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, Valery Zaluzhny, warning of a stalemate war between Ukraine and Russia, have been varied and revealing.

In last week’s lengthy interview with The Economist, Gen. Zaluzhny set out — and proposed solutions for — problems that anyone who has spent time on the front, or with soldiers and instructors recently returned from frontlines, already knew.

His interview is not a revelation or admission. It is an intervention on behalf of Ukraine, a call for honesty.

Not everyone welcomed Zaluzhny’s call, let alone heeded it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied the war had reached a stalemate, while his chief diplomatic adviser, Igor Zhovka, even questioned the wisdom of participating in the interview at all.

Some Western military analysts, confusing a pro-Ukrainian stance with wishful thinking, rebutted the general’s conclusions. On the other side, skeptics of Western support for Ukraine gloatingly cited the interview as evidence that Ukraine should have capitulated at some imagined earlier opportunity.

Speaking of active imaginations, it has been widely rumored that a number of Ukraine’s Western partners have been trying to force Ukraine towards a ceasefire. If so, they have failed to understand Zaluzhny’s argument — not for lack of intelligence but for lack of willingness to accept the context and motivations accompanying this intervention.

The Russian and Ukrainian word for ‘stalemate’

Dmitry Peskov, Russian presidential spokesman, is on hand to help reacquaint Western leaders with reality. In response to the essay, Peskov claimed it was “wrong to say the war was moving in the direction of stalemate” and insisted Russia would achieve all of its stated war aims.

Peskov’s remarks serve as a timely reminder that Ukraine is not the intransigent party here. It is not Ukraine that is desperate to continue war despite plentiful options to stop the bloodshed — it is Russia.

In Russian, and some variants of Ukrainian, the word for a stalemate is rendered as ‘tupik.’ The word carries connotations of blindness and stupidity. In all senses, Russia is certainly not in a tupik. The Kremlin can see a clear way forward, grinding down Ukraine while it waits for Western resilience and supplies to dry up.

The West, on the other hand, certainly is in a tupik. There is little to gain from pointing fingers about the delayed supplies and what difference they might have made in autumn 2022 or even early spring 2023, even if the thousands of Ukrainians who consequently died deserve at least this.

There is however plenty to gain from examining the attitudes that informed this reluctance and will continue to hamper Ukraine’s self-defence unless radically re-examined.

Perhaps the most glaring deficiency is stale western thinking. It is as if the West refuses to have a strategy for this war. The US does not appear to want Ukraine to win, if we define winning as returning all its taken land. Western European leaders, even the Brits, who previously lobbied the US for more weapons, now wait to see what Washington says rather than act on their own initiative to resolve a war that impacts their continent much more than North America.

NATO is not ready to offer credible deterrence via membership, even though other countries that were either part-occupied or at war have joined, namely West Germany.

The combined impression is one of Western irresoluteness, the root causes of which can be deciphered by unwrapping the insidious phrase ‘Ukraine fatigue.’ One reads that ‘Ukraine fatigue’ is forcing leaders to explore news ‘ways out’ of the conflict, presumably through Ukrainian territorial concessions to Russia.

But why is the West so fatigued by this war, when a strong majority of Ukrainians affirm the need to fight on? And would there still be ‘fatigue’ in Western capitals if Ukraine had retaken more territories during the summer counteroffensive?

Honest answers to both questions clarify that ‘Ukraine fatigue’ is a misnomer: This isn’t about tiredness, but rather the West’s lack of resilience, itself an inevitable consequence of the West’s refusal to admit the limitations of its own worldview.

Initially, many laughed at the Russian leadership for its failure to understand their Ukrainian opponents, its inability to see Ukrainians as they are in reality, rather than as Russian historical obsessions, propaganda and imperialistic worldviews depicted them.

Yet, many in the West apply the same self-absorbed lens to viewing Russia. They continue to presume President Vladimir Putin acts according to the same rational calculus as they do; that Russian society is as outraged by the war, or at least the sanctions and high death rate, as their societies would be; that the Kremlin elites will turn on the President when his war threatens the types of assets and interests Western elites hold dear.

But Putin isn’t worried about any of these things. He is safely ensconced at the top of his power vertical and preparing for another six-year term.

For now, a static war suits Russia very well: it is socio-politically sustainable (there is currently no need for mobilization and the public are largely happy to accept the war). It is economically sustainable, and it is militarily sustainable due to stockpiles, increased production capacity and supplies from partners like Iran and North Korea.

There is no democratic pressure on Putin to stop the war and no structures even exist through which such pressure could emerge.

For Putin, the war is sustainable, but the peace probably is not. The war provides cover and justification for an increasingly repressive state, weakened welfare system and centralized governance. It consolidates the population against an external enemy.

On the contrary, peace would lead to awkward questions: For what did so many men die? Where are their bodies? And why did the army fail to achieve the stated aims of the ‘special military operation’? In this light, it is understandable that Russia has shown no serious interest in stopping the war.

Putin has said again and again that Ukraine doesn’t exist. We have Russian officials boasting almost weekly of kidnapping Ukrainian children and indoctrinating them to hate their own country. We have pages and pages of genocidal intent from state journalists. Russia has written an entire national security strategy outlining its position that the West is in freefall and now is the time to reclaim their rightful decisive place in a new multipolar order. It has reorganized its education, cultural and foreign policy doctrine to place society on a gradualist war footing.

When Russia says it will pursue its war aims for as long as it takes, it has the ideological and literal infrastructure to back it up. The West doesn’t.

For now, the war is not an existential threat to the Euro-Atlantic security order: It doesn’t need to intervene directly, or send troops. But this appears to blind some to the fact that, while the war is not an existential threat to the Western security order, Ukraine losing would pose such a threat.

In the event of Ukraine’s defeat, what happens with the enormous numbers of weapons and refugees? How would Europe manage the ensuing popular insurrection? What does Russian victory mean for global nuclear proliferation? Would NATO remain viable?

In Putin’s December 2021 ultimatum he wanted a return of NATO to 1997 borders; in other words, a restoration of Russia’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. When I spoke to Kremlin advisers in summer and autumn 2022, they were all bamboozled by the West’s interpretation of this as a gambit or joke: it wasn’t, it was a serious negotiating position that Russia wished to achieve or at least approximate.

If they dealt with Russia and Putin as they are, as they have constantly shown themselves to be, any wavering Western leaders would soon recognise the need to devise a strategy worthy of the threat.

Perhaps this is why they don’t ask these questions and instead cling to a vision of the world that does not exist, and perhaps never existed.

In so doing, they are setting Ukraine up to lose. As Gen. Zaluzhny explained, Ukraine does not have the weapons, supplies or men to win the war as it is currently being fought. He lays out a concise military strategy to return manoeuvrability to what has become a positional war.

A similarly adaptable and bold political strategy is required from Ukraine’s allies — one that goes beyond just money and weapons deliveries and entails a meaningful shift in European economic and social models. North Korea has delivered over 1 million shells to Russia. The EU had promised Ukraine the same but is unable to fulfil the order. It should not be beyond the wit of the EU to match North Korea — and it isn’t, but it is seemingly beyond its will.

Any viable strategy of more fulsome support will also require honest conversations with electorates as to why supporting Ukraine is in these countries’ direct national interests. Such dialogue is long overdue in many countries, where people have tired of the moralistic rhetoric around freedom versus tyranny.

These phrases are applicable to Ukraine but have sadly lost all meaning following the ‘global war on terror.’ Any residual meaning is further undermined by the use of moralistic language as a crutch to avoid admitting that the West has no strategy for Ukrainian victory and that its current position will leave Ukraine without what it needs to defend itself, risking the lives of thousands of men and endangering its own populaces in the process.

These are stark and uncomfortable conclusions. But what does the power of liberal democratic values and economic reach really count for when Russia’s ally, North Korea, can deliver on promises to its partners but the EU cannot?

What is power without the willingness to use it? Inevitably, decline. If the Euro-Atlantic community wants to avoid a more precipitous drop, it is high time to look down, see where they are heading, and change course — starting in Ukraine.

Download Jade McGlynn’s books for free from the mirrors at https://libgen.is//search.php?req=Jade+McGlynn

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 5:38 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Meanwhile, Zelenskiy extends martial law for another three months. If he extends it for another three months after that, he will have delayed Presidential elections beyond its scheduled date.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 5:59 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Meanwhile, Zelenskiy extends martial law for another three months. If he extends it for another three months after that, he will have delayed Presidential elections beyond its scheduled date.

Wrong person to "blame" or whatever it is you are doing, Signym. It is the members of the Verkhovna Rada who have voted for the ninth time to extend martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-parliament-extends-martial-law-
mobilization-until-february-2024-as-war-continues-50366744.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, November 9, 2023 5:10 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian General Staff uses battlefield maps that differ from tactical reality in response to another milblogger who questioned why Russian forces were not striking alleged large Ukrainian force concentrations close to the frontline.[6]

The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian personnel on the front have access to the “real” map and that Russian commanders order Russian forces to conduct routine assaults to make gains that align the “real” map with the Russian General Staff’s map.[7]

A separate milblogger claimed that there had been previous individual cases of Russian battalion and regiment-level assault operations aimed at achieving compliance with inaccurate maps of the frontline but that this is the first time that he has heard of a wider operational imperative to make advances that comply with a reported General Staff map.[8]

A milblogger claimed that Russian commanders are incentivized to make the tactical gains depicted in the General Staff’s maps because the General Staff increasingly requires positive reports from frontline commanders.[9]

Russian milbloggers have routinely criticized Russian commanders throughout the chain of command for delivering false and overly positive reports to their superiors and have identified the Russian General Staff as fostering this widespread institutional dishonesty.[10]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-8-2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, November 10, 2023 2:44 AM