REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, October 31, 2024 13:46
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 146017
PAGE 107 of 149

Thursday, November 30, 2023 6:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


As the West drags its feet over additional military support to Ukraine, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg’s well-worn words of support are starting to jar with reality

By Henry Foy | Nov 29, 2023
https://www.ft.com/content/f2cfebb4-77c9-490a-ac99-8c16f3385373

A scoop to start: EU countries including France and Belgium are permitting transshipments of billions of cubic metres of Russian gas, a practice banned by the UK and others, in a scheme that helps Moscow fund its war against Ukraine. (EU ports help sell on over 20% of LNG imports from Russia https://www.ft.com/content/aff34dec-9fbb-4158-9af8-7a7761b25893
Russian gas shipments are routinely transferred between tankers in Belgium, France and Spain before being exported to buyers in other continents. The ship transfers are crucial for Russia as it attempts to make best use of its Arctic fleet. Transshipment usually takes place between Russian “ice class” tankers that are used to run between the Yamal peninsula and north-western Europe and regular LNG tankers that then sail on to other ports, freeing up the ice-class vessels to return north.)

‘As long as it takes’

Western rhetoric of unwavering support for Ukraine is a well-worn mantra. But Kyiv probably didn’t think that it meant waiting “as long as it takes” for Western governments to make decisions.

Context: An EU plan to provide Kyiv with €50bn in budget support is stuck over internal wrangling. A $60bn fund promised by the White House is stuck in the mire of US Congress politics. And long-term weapons supplies have been cast into doubt by low production capacities in Europe and uncertainty over next year’s US presidential election.

Amid the foot-dragging, NATO foreign ministers this week are attempting to put on a brave face and turn to their favourite export (of which there is never a shortage): pledges of ironclad backing.

“In our meeting today, allies reiterated . . . unwavering support as the Ukrainians bravely defend their country,” NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday evening, referring to new pledges of assistance from Germany and the Netherlands. “All of this helps to save Ukrainian lives. And sends a message to Russia that our support will not falter.” 

Ukraine’s summer-to-autumn counteroffensive, which made marginal gains against heavily-entrenched Russian troops, has petered out.

Kyiv privately blames Western governments for encouraging them to use NATO military tactics but failing to provide enough of the cutting-edge weaponry that their own forces enjoy.

That’s led to uncertainty over what comes next, especially as the US and EU continue to bicker over cash provisions critical to keeping the Ukrainian government running into 2024.

The alliance’s foreign ministers will gather again this morning with their Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, for a session of the NATO-Ukraine Council.

After meeting with Kuleba yesterday, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell was asked whether faltering support for Ukraine was the “elephant in the room.”

“Look, the room is full of elephants. We have a room crowded with big issues and big questions. And certainly, the prospect of the war in Ukraine is one of the most important issues [with] which we are dealing,” Borrell retorted. “But, to be frank, I do not see any sign of member [states] having what you call ‘fatigue’.”

Such sentiments are appreciated in Kyiv. But rhetoric can’t pay the bills, or stock the ammunition dumps.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, November 30, 2023 10:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Is poisoning of Ukraine spy chief's wife part of old Russia playbook?

The Vantage | November 30, 2023 15:42:45 IST
https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/vantage-is-poisoning-of-ukraine-spy-
chiefs-wife-part-of-old-russia-playbook-13449362.html


The use of poison, a notorious tool in Putin’s arsenal to silence critics, has now found its way to the Ukrainian battlefield. Marianna Budanova has become the first known target. Reports indicate that the Ukrainian intelligence unit G-U-R, responsible for the country’s security, has confirmed her poisoning along with several other officials, all now hospitalised.

The aftermath of Marianna Budanova’s poisoning raises serious questions about a potential breach in Ukraine’s intelligence unit.

Kyrylo Budanov, a 37-year-old Lieutenant General and chief of Ukraine’s main spy agency since 2020, has been a thorn in Moscow’s side. Known for orchestrating attacks deep inside Russian territory, Budanov has survived at least 10 assassination attempts including a botched car bombing in 2019.

Moscow has levied charges against Budanov, linking his unit to the killings of pro-war Russian figures, including Vladlen Tatarsky, a blogger, and Darya Dugina, a journalist and the daughter of a close ally of Putin. These charges make Budanov a prime target for Russian agencies.

History of covert poisoning in Russia

The use of poison as a weapon is not new in Russian tactics. Notable victims include Alexei Navalny, Putin’s vocal opposition politician currently serving a 30-year jail term, and the 2018 poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in London. The recurring theme of poisoning critics underscores the ruthless methods employed by Russian intelligence.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, November 30, 2023 12:21 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
As the West drags its feet over additional military support to Ukraine, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg’s well-worn words of support are starting to jar with reality


The reason why "the west", principally the USA, is dragging its feet supplying Ukraine is bc our military war gamers know that is we were to get into a direct land war with Russia in Europe, WE WOULD LOSE. The logistics aren't there. Anything we would attempt to convoy to Europe would be sunk crossing the Atlantic.

Also, Europe and the USA have run out of readily disposable weapons and munitions: not enough shells, not enough Patriot missiles, no more tanks etc.

Europe and the UK in particular have gone "all in" politically (on the mistaken belief that the USA had inexhaustible stores and natgas) and they have expended their armories, torpedoed their cheap energy supply, bled their treasuries, and deinduztrilaized themselves supporting Ukraine. And the USA is eating them for lunch bc their firms are moving here, where energy is cheaper.

Unbelievably stupid politicians! DON'T THEY KNOW THAT BEING AMERICA'S FRIEND IS FATAL?

Quote:

By Henry Foy | Nov 29, 2023
https://www.ft.com/content/f2cfebb4-77c9-490a-ac99-8c16f3385373

A scoop to start: EU countries including France and Belgium are permitting transshipments of billions of cubic metres of Russian gas, a practice banned by the UK and others, in a scheme that helps Moscow fund its war against Ukraine. (EU ports help sell on over 20% of LNG imports from Russia



And now the author wants to flog them some more?

Well, fine!
But don't be surprised if you see a political revolt in Europe, and a lot of governments changing hands in the next couple of years.

Another unbelievably stupid and counterfactual article from SECOND! There seem to be plenty out there, so I'm sure he'll post another wall of bullshit.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, November 30, 2023 1:01 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Well, fine!
But don't be surprised if you see a political revolt in Europe, and a lot of governments changing hands in the next couple of years.

More than half of Europeans are cheese-eating surrender monkeys so it would not be surprising if you are right. Those surrendering Europeans should not be surprised if wealthy Russians end up owning them. The same is true in America, where the majority already surrendered. The consequence for those Americans who surrendered is that the wealthy ended up with all the money:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States

Unlike most East Texans, I did not surrender to circumstances. Neither did my sisters nor parents, who worked at Burger King. America worked well for all of us, but it doesn't for those who give up and hand over their money to the wealthy.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, November 30, 2023 3:01 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


OK, let's see. In one case (your family) "not surrendering" led to prosperity. Ok, that's a good reason to keep on keeping on. Of course, there's a difference between hard work and pathological greed, and I suspect that the top 1% didn't really work hard d to get there.

In another case (Europe) "not surrendering" leads to permanent poverty. So, what's the upside for "not surrendering"? And who are they "not surrendering" to? Because from where I sit, the EU elite are doing the USA's and globalists' bidding, and you want the people to surrender to their elite.

I really don't see a reason for Europe to continue fighting Russia. Russia has very clear security goals which I think are quite reasonable for everyone: a belt of neutral nations, like Austria, between NATO and Russia. Austria has done quite well as a neutral state, bc being NATO member would just put them in a state of permanent hostility, tension, and increased military expenses. Russia has no interest in invading Austria, or anyone, and did everything possible since 2014 to avoid conflict in Ukraine. It was "the west" that provoked the war.

The sooner people in Europe realize that, the sooner they'll be free of our, and their, bloodsucking elite.

One of us in confused, and I don't think it's me.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, November 30, 2023 5:42 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
OK, let's see. In one case (your family) "not surrendering" led to prosperity. Ok, that's a good reason to keep on keeping on. Of course, there's a difference between hard work and pathological greed, and I suspect that the top 1% didn't really work hard d to get there.

In another case (Europe) "not surrendering" leads to permanent poverty. So, what's the upside for "not surrendering"? And who are they "not surrendering" to? Because from where I sit, the EU elite are doing the USA's and globalists' bidding, and you want the people to surrender to their elite.

I really don't see a reason for Europe to continue fighting Russia. Russia has very clear security goals which I think are quite reasonable for everyone: a belt of neutral nations, like Austria, between NATO and Russia. Austria has done quite well as a neutral state, bc being NATO member would just put them in a state of permanent hostility, tension, and increased military expenses. Russia has no interest in invading Austria, or anyone, and did everything possible since 2014 to avoid conflict in Ukraine. It was "the west" that provoked the war.

The sooner people in Europe realize that, the sooner they'll be free of our, and their, bloodsucking elite.

One of us in confused, and I don't think it's me.

You have forgotten Russia's past, haven't you? Invading countries and never leaving, at least not until the Soviet Union disintegrated. And you also forgot how poorly Europe handled their defense needs before WWII. One country after another collapsed because they were not prepared for what was obviously going to happen. Europe is not prepared even today. One of these days it will be obvious to the cheese-eating surrender monkeys, but it will be too late. The USA showed up in Europe too late during WWII and it will be too late in the next war. All those NATO agreements mean nothing if the USA decides to do nothing. Nobody in Europe is ready to take on Russia, other than Finland, a country that beat up the Russians back in WWII and will do it again.

I will show what happens when people who are easily frightened and quick to surrender are helped with money:

$892,723
$446,805
$381,231
$226,161

That's money given to 4 different people by me. Each of them now has none of that money. They would receive a little bit of money, find they need more, and then find they need still more after that. Each has nothing to show for all that money. Nothing. They all give promises to NOT do this or that extremely stupid thing, like sign purchase agreements or leases, but then they would break the promises and do as they pleased. That didn't work out to their advantage because they understand nothing about how Capitalism works. On the flip side, they'd promise to do things and then didn't. That also didn't work out. It's just awe-inspiring how many perfectly stupid ways Americans can find to fail in life, year after year.

All four of these women need somebody to run their lives for them because they are too cowardly and diffident to run themselves. But unless they are in jail or a cult, nobody can stop them from stumbling through life in America. In America, you are free to be the biggest failure you can be. I have seen this pattern repeated hundreds of times, but only these four received a large amount of my money. I'm convinced the problem is not money; the problem is the way they think. And it is not limited to just 4 people not thinking straight.

The same stupidity happens to countries, especially when their politicians bend to the will of the dumbest citizens, either the poorest citizens in a country like Argentina or bend to the will of the richest citizens in a country like the USA or UK.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, November 30, 2023 6:36 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
OK, let's see. In one case (your family) "not surrendering" led to prosperity. Ok, that's a good reason to keep on keeping on. Of course, there's a difference between hard work and pathological greed, and I suspect that the top 1% didn't really work hard d to get there.

In another case (Europe) "not surrendering" leads to permanent poverty. So, what's the upside for "not surrendering"? And who are they "not surrendering" to? Because from where I sit, the EU elite are doing the USA's and globalists' bidding, and you want the people to surrender to their elite.

I really don't see a reason for Europe to continue fighting Russia. Russia has very clear security goals which I think are quite reasonable for everyone: a belt of neutral nations, like Austria, between NATO and Russia. Austria has done quite well as a neutral state, bc being NATO member would just put them in a state of permanent hostility, tension, and increased military expenses. Russia has no interest in invading Austria, or anyone, and did everything possible since 2014 to avoid conflict in Ukraine. It was "the west" that provoked the war.

The sooner people in Europe realize that, the sooner they'll be free of our, and their, bloodsucking elite.

One of us in confused, and I don't think it's me.

SECOND: You have forgotten Russia's past, haven't you? Invading countries and never leaving, at least not until the Soviet Union disintegrated.



I don't give a fuck about their past, and you constantly bringing it up is just scaremongering fit for stupid people.

Let's look at post-2014 Russia and "the west" for a reality check, shall we?

Russia appealed over and over for the Minsk agreements to be enforced (by the west and Ukraine, since they were the signatories).

In that time, the west "stuffed Ukraine with weapons" and then openly bragged that they had only signed the Minsk Agreements to buy time to arm Ukraine.
In the interim, Russia abided by every contract and every agreement they had signed to.

In 2022 Russia and Ukraine initialed a cease fire and a roapmap to peace, which would have left Ukraine whole (except for Crimea). They even withdrew their troops from Kiev as a sign of good faith. The west canceled the initial agreement and pressed Ukraine to keep fighting.

Then the USA blew up Nordstream.

As far as grain shipments, Russia kept up its end of the bargain. But the west failed to implement ITS end, which required that weapons NOT be shipped thru the "grain corridor" and that Russian grain shipments be insurable in the west.

Needless to say, MORE bad faith on the part of the west led to Russia not extending the deal.

The history of western dealings with Russia is replete with bad faith and duplicity. At this point, WHY should Russia believe anything the west says, or signs?

I sure wouldn't. I wouldn't trust us, either.

We're the bad guys. SECOND, YOU'RE the bad guy, always trying to pick fights and blame others.

Russia has been faithful to its contracts, agreements, and treaties.
Us? Not so much. I would trust them more than I'd trust or government, or you for that matter.

Quote:

They all give promises to NOT do this or that extremely stupid thing, like sign purchase agreements or leases, but then they would break the promises and do as they pleased. That didn't work out to their advantage because they understand nothing about how Capitalism works. On the flip side, they'd promise to do things and then didn't


Wow, sounds just like our neocons!

We really need to learn how to be more honorable.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, November 30, 2023 9:40 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


It appears that nobody is rushing to complete this delivery because they don't see it as a matter of life or death:

Ukraine's new long-range rocket delivery from US pushed to next year

By Mike Stone | November 30, 2023 11:14 AM CST
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-new-long-range-rocket-de
livery-us-pushed-next-year-2023-11-30
/

WASHINGTON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine will need to wait until next year before it receives its first big shipment of rocket-propelled bombs the U.S. has adapted to strike at a nearly 100-mile (160km) range, according to the Pentagon and people familiar with the timing.

When the U.S. was first approached by Boeing (BA.N) to buy and ship the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) to Ukraine last fall, the most optimistic timeline for shipping was around spring of this year, according to a document seen by Reuters at that time. It was reported by Politico in February that delivery wouldn't take place until later in 2023.

Ukraine needs GLSDB to augment the limited number of 100-mile range ATACMS rockets the U.S. has sent. It will allow Ukraine's military to hit targets at twice the distance reachable by the rockets it now fires from the U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and force Russia to move its supplies even farther from the front lines.

People familiar with current timing say delivery to the U.S. by Boeing, the prime contractor for the GLSDB, will take place in late December - followed by several months of testing before onward shipment to Ukraine. (I guess they think that Ukraine can't test the bombs on Russians? I'm pretty sure that competent Ukrainians could answer the question of how close to the target did the bomb land? Did the bomb explode on impact? If they can't provide those answers, they are firing the bombs blindly, which means they are randomly wasting extremely expensive ammo. The perfect way to lose a war is to not carefully aim before firing your exotic and pricey weapons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Launched_Small_Diameter_Bomb )

A Pentagon spokesman said "we anticipate providing this key capability in the early 2024 timeframe after successful verification," another term for testing. (I shot a bomb into the air. It fell to Earth I know not where.)

Because the contract to begin production of GLSDB was signed in March, according to a Pentagon statement to Reuters, delivery was forced towards year-end. Production required government furnished materials, so contract signing constrained its start.

The decision to send the long-range rocket, something the U.S. government hasn't purchased for itself, followed a proposal last summer from Boeing Co (BA.N) to U.S. commanders in Europe managing weapons for Ukraine.

Boeing did not respond to a request for comment.

Although Russia said in March it had shot down a GLSDB, the U.S. has not supplied any of the smart bombs to Ukraine, a U.S. official and a person familiar with the matter said. Reuters could not determine if another country supplied Kyiv with the weapon.

GLSDB is made jointly by Sweden's SAAB AB (SAABb.ST) and Boeing Co (BA.N). It is GPS-guided, can defeat some electronic jamming, is usable in all weather conditions, and can be used against armored vehicles, according to SAAB's website.

Reporting by Mike Stone in Washington; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 12:46 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
It appears that nobody is rushing to complete this delivery because they don't see it as a matter of life or death:

Ukraine's new long-range rocket delivery from US pushed to next year

By Mike Stone | November 30, 2023 11:14 AM CST
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-new-long-range-rocket-de
livery-us-pushed-next-year-2023-11-30
/

WASHINGTON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine will need to wait until next year before it receives its first big shipment of rocket-propelled bombs the U.S. has adapted to strike at a nearly 100-mile (160km) range, according to the Pentagon and people familiar with the timing...



Wow.
You still don't get it?




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 6:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic slow-burn effort to absorb Belarus through the Union State structure. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Belarusian Ministry of Economy agreed to a new package of Union State integration measures for 2024-2026 to advance the Kremlin’s effort to absorb Belarus through the Union State on November 29.[45] Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will likely sign the integration package during an upcoming Union State Supreme State Council meeting, possibly in 2024.[46] Lukashenko has previously resisted the Kremlin’s efforts to further integrate Belarus into the Union State, although recent events, including the death of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the collapse of the June 24, 2023 agreement between Putin, Prigozhin, and Lukashenko that gave Wagner sanctuary in Belarus, have likely degraded Lukashenko’s ability to resist further Union State integration efforts.[47] Lukashenko recently portrayed himself as the guarantor of Belarusian statehood ahead of Belarusian parliamentary elections in 2024 and presidential elections in 2025, stating on November 10 that incoming young Belarusian leaders should ascend to office with the goal of “saving the country [Belarus].”[48]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-30-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 6:24 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian attempt to control narrative in Ukraine employs age-old tactic of ‘othering’ the enemy

By Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager | November 30, 2023 8:37am EST

https://theconversation.com/russian-attempt-to-control-narrative-in-uk
raine-employs-age-old-tactic-of-othering-the-enemy-206154


Controlling the narrative has long been crucial to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine.

In the worldview he promulgates, the U.S. is an “empire of lies,” the West is bent on “tearing apart Russia,” and Ukraine is a “Nazi-run” country whose statehood is a historical fiction.

Through speeches and propaganda, Putin presents this narrative to his own country and the rest of the world. It is a worldview that is negative, historically and factually false and relies on provocative rhetorical framing. It is a framing that fits well the Russian phrase that translates in English as “who is not with us, is against us,” forms of which have been popularized through czarist and Soviet years and have returned with a vengeance under Putin.

It is also, as I explore in my new book, a popular form of what is known as “cultural othering,” which can be used to gain, maintain and exercise power.

Cultural othering, explained

Cultural othering is the process of defining a group of people – be it a racial, ethnic or national group – as different and then treating them as inferior. This “other” group is assigned negative traits to make them appear lower to the dominant group, and to marginalize them.

Othering has long been a tool employed to assert authority over marginalized groups, such as by European colonizers in Africa and Asia, or by settlers in Native American lands.

Putin and the Russian state are very skilled at practicing cultural othering and have deployed it against Ukrainian “enemies” as tanks rolled into Ukraine. In the worldview of Putin, their separatist vision was based on Russophobia, fascism and neo-Nazism.

Putin’s othering predates the 2022 invasion. It was seen in the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea, the 2008 conflict in Georgia and the brutal Chechen wars from 1994 onward. All represented Russian attempts to reestablish its control over “others” – Ukrainians, Georgians, Chechens, the Crimean Tatars – that under the Soviet system had been reincorporated into an idea of a “Great Russia.” Their crime, as seen from Moscow, was that they were undermining Putin’s long-held vision for a return to that great Russian empire.

Soviet brotherhood, revisited

The curious thing about Putin’s othering is it focuses on national groups that he has simultaneously claimed to be of the same people as Russia.

From Putin’s perspective, these would-be breakaway neighbors are former “brotherly republics” cleaved from Mother Moscow only by the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s – an event Putin has described as the biggest geopolitical tragedy of the century. To push this narrative, Putin employs a warped view of history, invoking the “Kyivan Rus” – the medieval state that sought to unite the people of a vast land mass – and denouncing Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin as “the creator and architect of Ukraine” and encouraging nationalist ambitions.

Under Putinism, there are seemingly two options for countries that once formed the Russian, and later Soviet, empire.

The first involves total geopolitical and cultural submission, assimilation and acceptance of pan-Russian sameness, as is seen in Belarus under Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko. The second option is to seek national and cultural self-definition, but be subjected to the most extreme forms of cultural othering for doing so. In other words, it is the choice of being a brother or the other.

To Putin, nations that dared to break away from Russian hegemony and, like Ukraine, developed pro-Western ambitions, turned into an enemy.

Othering in historical context

Putin’s cultural othering of Ukraine taps into a history of Russia that goes back centuries. It was evident in imperial Russia and reflected in the literature of the time. Russian poet Alexander Pushkin, in his epic “Poltava,” and novelist Leo Tolstoy, in “A Prisoner in the Caucasus,” both glorified Russian martyrdom and heroism while employing othering language and devices against different groups of people, including the French, Swedes, Turks, the Circassians, Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians. This othering serves to portray those seeking distance from Moscow as subhuman, or at least sub-Russian.

In the Soviet period, cultural othering took the form of demonizing anyone who balked at or actively fought attempts to force a homogeneous Soviet identity over ethnic and class diversity. The punishment for resistance and disobedience was severe, especially under Josef Stalin; the gulag served as the ultimate destination for those who did not assimilate.

Meanwhile, Ukraine paid a terrible price for resistance to assimilation. Stalin’s human-made starvation of Ukrainian peasants from 1932 and 1933 – which many historians attribute in part to an attempt to suppress or punish Ukrainian aspirations of independence – killed millions of Ukrainians. And here lies an important aspect of cultural othering: Once a people are “othered,” their lives are degraded and dehumanized – making such atrocities more acceptable to the dominant group.

Eventually – to escape repressions and to survive – Ukrainians, Georgians, Crimean Tatars and other “others” reluctantly accepted Soviet brotherhood and political and linguistic submission and cultural assimilation with Russia.

In this way, Russian leaders from emperors to Soviet chiefs have manifested Russian geopolitical and ideological hegemony. Putin is following suit.

New leader, old strategy

Since coming to power, Putin has tried to reconstruct Russia’s former territorial and ideological might, while simultaneously positioning the country in opposition to its habitual enemy – the “collective West.” When Ukraine chose a pro-European course, Putin saw it as the act of a treacherous enemy.

Putin’s rhetoric has been fusing Ukraine and the West together in one single enemy ever since. Putin often “others” the West – and, by association, Ukraine – by drawing comparisons between Russian traditional values and Western cultural “decadence” with its LGBTQ+ rights, gender-related debates and other identity issues. Since the beginning of the war, Putin has othered Ukraine by making it both “of the West” but also “Nazi.” That has allowed him to frame his war as “liberation,” “demilitarization,” and “de-nazification.” Meanwhile, religious leaders in Russia have framed the conflict as a holy war, with the aim of “de-Satanizing” Ukraine.“

This continued othering of Ukrainians by Putin means that the war is one that goes beyond territory and ideology. Rather, what has been set up is a conflict between two cultural selves that are mutually exclusive. It is, to Putin, the Russian "us” against the Western and Ukrainian “them.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 7:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin's solution to increase Russia's population: Ask women to have ‘8 or more’ children

By Manjiri Chitre | Dec 01, 2023 02:25 PM IST

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/putins-solution-to-increase-
russias-population-ask-women-to-have-8-or-more-children-101701414121970.html


Putin said that boosting the population of the country will be the “goal for coming decades”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin this week urged women in Russia to have eight or more children and make larger families a “norm” to increase the population in the country. This comes amid the increasing number of deaths in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

In a video speech at the World Russian People's Council in Moscow, Putin said that boosting the population of the country will be the “goal for coming decades”, reported The Independent.

“Many of our peoples maintain the tradition of the family, where four, five or more children are raised . . . Recall that in Russian families our grandmothers and great-grandmothers had both 7 and 8 children. Let us preserve and revive these traditions. The family is not just the foundation of the state and society, it is a spiritual phenomenon, a source of morality," he said.

Notably, Putin himself has publicly acknowledged having only two children - daughters with his former wife Lyudmila. However, reports have claimed that he has multiple children from his affairs with millionaire Svetlana Krivonogikh and Olympic gold medal-winning gymnast Alina Kabaeva.

Speaking further at the conference, Putin added: “I would like to emphasise that the Russian world and Russia itself do not and cannot exist without Russians as an ethnicity, without the Russian people. This statement does not contain any claim to superiority, exclusivity or chosenness. This is simply a fact just like our Constitution’s clear definition of the status of the Russian language as the language of a state-forming nation. Being Russian is more than a nationality.”

The war between Russia and Ukraine entered its second winter this year with thousands of people being killed and displaced every day. According to the UK's defence ministry, the number of Russians dead in the war has likely crossed 300,000, reported The Independent. Meanwhile, an independent Russian policy group claimed that around 820,000-920,000 have fled the country.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 12:46 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


US aid to Ukraine continues to be a wise investment.

By Michael John Williams | December 1, 2023 • 10:36 am ET

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/dont-stop-now-us
-aid-to-ukraine-continues-to-be-a-wise-investment
/

The allocation of US military assistance to Ukraine stands as the most strategic defense investment in at least two decades. Congress’s refusal so far to bring to the floor President Joe Biden’s supplemental budget request — which includes $61.4 billion in additional Ukraine funding — is a significant error. The synergy of US aid with Ukrainian courage and resilience has yielded success on multiple fronts. Withholding additional support for Kyiv at this critical juncture would not only harm the ongoing war effort but also diminish US global standing, injecting uncertainty into the world.

Total US assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s illegal invasion in February 2022 is a modest seventy-five billion dollars. The United States spent trillions of dollars on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with very little to show by way of positive developments in either campaign. In stark contrast, Kyiv has judiciously utilized US and international assistance to significantly weaken what the US Department of Defense calls a “near-peer competitor.”

Since the conflict’s onset, Russia has suffered, according to one report, the loss of 11,000 pieces of battlefield equipment, including 1,300 main battle tanks destroyed and 548 captured by Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine is reported to have taken down 1,600 infantry fighting vehicles, more than 200 armored personnel carriers, 100 helicopters, and 75 combat aircraft. Despite lacking a substantial navy, Kyiv has even sunk eight Russian warships, including the flagship Moskva, a Slava-class guided missile cruiser named after the Russian capital. Beyond the material losses, the Kremlin has incurred significant personnel casualties.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin is not defeated on the battlefield now, it will cost the United States far more to deter and defend against future Russian aggression.

With an estimated 120,000 soldiers killed in action and 170,000 injured, Russia’s personnel losses have been staggering. And Russia’s losses are not just constrained to enlisted men — seven Russian generals have been killed on the battlefield, including Roman Kutuzov, leader of the Fifth Combined Arms Army, central to the assault on Ukraine. As retired general and former Central Intelligence Agency Director David Petraeus put it, Ukraine is “picking them off left and right.” Equally critical is the loss of more than eight hundred junior officers, essential for executing tactical maneuvers within larger battalion and brigade efforts. The absence of these young officers weakens Russia’s combat effectiveness in the short term and threatens its ability to form coordinated, effective fighting units as it calls up more enlisted personnel. However, the impact of US aid to Ukraine extends far beyond the battlefield.

Firstly, the aid underscores the United States’ commitment to upholding international law and the established liberal world order, countering perceptions of a retreat from global leadership. This sends a powerful signal to those seeking to revise the international order that there will be a significant price to pay should they attempt to do so. Ideally, adversaries’ belief in US resolve will make the United States’ global deterrence posture more believable and effective. Secondly, aid to Ukraine reassures friends and allies worldwide, projecting stability and security. A perception of US unreliability could prompt allies to pursue independent security measures, risking nuclear weapons proliferation and regional arms races — neither of which are in the United States’ interest.

Cutting off aid to Ukraine, as some in Congress propose, would undermine the immediate war effort in Europe and diminish the deterrent power of US military force globally. A solid 61 percent of Americans support assistance to Ukraine, according to a September 2023 poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Nor is the United States alone in its support. European countries and European Union (EU) institutions have collectively pledged more than $145 billion in aid since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the coming year the United States should work closely with European allies and the EU to set up a longer-term plan for Ukrainian economic development, with Europeans shouldering a large part of that effort.

But such a process must be planned, and abruptly cutting Kyiv off at the knees right now is not the answer. Doing so would incentivize Russia to stay the course and invite future trouble. If Russian President Vladimir Putin is not defeated on the battlefield now, it will cost the United States far more to deter and defend against future Russian aggression. While fiscal responsibility is commendable, the failure to provide Kyiv with an additional $61.4 billion to uphold the liberal world order and significantly degrade the Russian military is a short-sighted decision with far-reaching consequences for national security.

Michael John Williams is a nonresident senior fellow with the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and associate professor of International Affairs and director of the International Relations Program at the Maxwell School for Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 3:35 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Russian attempt to control narrative in Ukraine employs age-old tactic of ‘othering’ the enemy

By Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager | November 30, 2023 8:37am EST

https://theconversation.com/russian-attempt-to-control-narrative-in-uk
raine-employs-age-old-tactic-of-othering-the-enemy-206154


Controlling the narrative has long been crucial to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine.

In the worldview he promulgates, the U.S. is an “empire of lies,”

TRUE. We have broken every agreement, contract and treaty and stabbed our "friends" in the back, including Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Panama, Libya, and even Ukraine and the EU.

Quote:

the West is bent on “tearing apart Russia,”
TRUE. SECOND'S re-posts of western media said exactly that

Quote:

and Ukraine is a “Nazi-run” country whose statehood is a historical fiction.

PARTLY TRUE.
The presence of Nazi troops and internal security limits Zelenskiy's options.
Historically, the Russian empire was centered in Kiev, and Catherine the Great founded Odessa and other southern cities. Ukraine did not become independent until 1991.

Quote:

Through speeches and propaganda, Putin presents this narrative to his own country and the rest of the world. It is a worldview that is negative, historically and factually false and relies on provocative rhetorical framing.
So far,this article is negative, factually false, and reliant on provocative rhetorical framing.

Quote:

It is a framing that fits well the Russian phrase that translates in English as “who is not with us, is against us,” forms of which have been popularized through czarist and Soviet years and have returned with a vengeance under Putin.

FALSE. Russia works well with nations such as Turkiye and India that maintain a neutral stance. It's the USA that bullies, sanctions, and threatens nations that don't swear fealty. "With us or against us" was GWB's phrase.

Quote:

It is also, as I explore in my new book, a popular form of what is known as “cultural othering,” which can be used to gain, maintain and exercise power.

Cultural othering, explained

Cultural othering is the process of defining a group of people – be it a racial, ethnic or national group – as different and then treating them as inferior. This “other” group is assigned negative traits to make them appear lower to the dominant group, and to marginalize them.

Othering has long been a tool employed to assert authority over marginalized groups, such as by European colonizers in Africa and Asia, or by settlers in Native American lands.

And continues to this day.
The west has "culturally othered" Russia, China, and the whole world.
We call Russians stupid and subhuman.
Chinese are a society of ants.
Josep Borell said that Europe is a garden and the rest of the world is a jungle.

Quote:

Putin and the Russian state are very skilled at practicing cultural othering and have deployed it against Ukrainian “enemies” as tanks rolled into Ukraine. In the worldview of Putin, their separatist vision was based on Russophobia, fascism and neo-Nazism.

Putin’s othering predates the 2022 invasion. It was seen in the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea, the 2008 conflict in Georgia and the brutal Chechen wars from 1994 onward. All represented Russian attempts to reestablish its control over “others” – Ukrainians, Georgians, Chechens, the Crimean Tatars – that under the Soviet system had been reincorporated into an idea of a “Great Russia.” Their crime, as seen from Moscow, was that they were undermining Putin’s long-held vision for a return to that great Russian empire.


Crimean Tartars are a tiny portion of Crimean people. But to the extent that want to live in Russian Crimea, they're welcome.
Georgia fired it's missiles first.
Chechnya was a jihadi terrorist base, used to launch attacks, most notoriously on a school, killing 200 children.

Once attacks against Russians ceased, Russia left them alone. Those other nations or republics continue with their language, religion, and customs as before.
Stalin, that terrible tyrant, actually had written languages created for the various ethnic groups so that their cultures wouldn't disappear.

This is as far as I go. The rest of the article, like the first part, is factually wrong and seeks to do exactly what it accuses Russia of doing.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 5:33 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Zelensky concedes counteroffensive failed but insists that’s no reason to surrender

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/zelensky-concedes-counteroffen
sive-failed-but-insists-that-s-no-reason-to-surrender/ar-AA1kQ6IO


Ukraine’s Zelensky Orders Construction of Defenses to Hold Back Russia

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-zelensky-orders-constru
ction-of-defenses-to-hold-back-russia/ar-AA1kQqqF




Quote:

Ukraine Finally Starts To Build Defense Lines

After wasting ten-thousands of men in hopeless battles the Ukrainian comedian has finally acknowledged that his army's performative 'counter-attacks' and hold-to-the-last-man defenses have made no sense.

Politco's Dreamer of the year finally calls for building defensive lines:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for a faster buildup of major defensive lines amid Kyiv’s stalled counteroffensive and concerns that Russia could attempt to take more territory.

Zelenskiy urged greater speed and efficiency in building defenses in a video statement on Telegram after a meeting with key military and security officials Tuesday evening. He encouraged local communities to pitch in and pledged to make money available for the effort.

“Our country will definitely have enough mines and concrete,” he said. He didn’t provide details on where the fortifications would be built or how extensive they might be.


It took the Russian army several months and lots of money to build its extensive defense lines in the southeast of Ukraine.

Zelenski has neither the time nor the money to build solid lines but he wants many of them (machine translation):

According to Zelensky, he held a meeting on fortification in all major directions – first of all on Avdiivka and Maryinsky, as well as on Kupyansk and on the Kupyansk – Liman line, in Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

In addition, fortifications will be built along the entire border with Russia and Belarus.

"We will work with our partners to strengthen our defensive lines," the president added.

Earlier, Zelensky already spoke about a "special" meeting of the Stavka, where they discussed strengthening the fortification.

Comments Strana (machine translation):

This is quite a landmark statement. It sounds like an announcement of the construction of large-scale defensive lines-similar to the one that Russia has built in the south.

And more broadly, this can be interpreted as a transition to a defensive strategy, which began to be talked about more and more often after the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine actually stopped, and the Russians themselves switched to large-scale attacks.

But officially, the authorities do not talk about the transition to defense, and the main thesis remains that the APU is preparing to attack, and there is no deadlock (which even the commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny wrote about) at the front.


Zelenski called for private companies to build the new fortifications. In the context of Ukraine that means more corruption - lots of it - as government officials will ask for kick backs for any contract they may sign. Previous attempts of privately build defense lines had ditches that were too shallow and of little utility. Some concrete was poured but in the wrong places and shapes.




Quote:

Zelenskyy ready to hold election BUT... says Ukrainians oppose it as war rages on


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 8:03 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Give the Kremlin an Inch and it Will Take Half of Europe

By Julia Davis | December 1, 2023

Signs of Western hesitation over support for Ukraine encourage Russian propagandists to speculate on which country might be the next victim.

Appearing on the Own Truth show on NTV last Friday, writer Dmitry Lekuh said that Poland is “the next candidate to be thrown under Russian tanks.” He asserted that “dividing Poland between Russia and Germany is our national pastime.”

Moscow mouthpieces do not limit themselves to the redrawing of European maps. Another favored theme has been the need to punish Russian exiles and so-called enemies of the state through assassination.

This is an old and familiar path for Russia. As far back as the 1930s and 1940s, Stalin’s henchmen led by the legendary spymaster Pavel Sudoplatov, plotted and carried out assassinations of individuals including Leon Trotsky. In more recent years, Russian assassins have used radioactive and nerve agents in the UK and in Russia itself.

More at https://cepa.org/article/give-the-kremlin-an-inch-and-it-will-take-hal
f-of-europe
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 8:43 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to increase the maximum number of servicemen in the Russian armed forces by 170,000 people, the Kremlin and the Defence Ministry said on Friday.

According to the document, the regular strength of the armed forces is now set at 1,320,000 servicemen.

"The increase in the full-time strength of the armed forces is due to the growing threats to our country associated with the special military operation and the ongoing expansion of NATO," the Russian defence ministry said. Putin's troops have also reportedly suffered heavy losses in recent weeks as the war in Ukraine rages on toward its 22nd month.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said on Friday that more than 452,000 people were recruited to the Russian military under contract from Jan. 1 to Dec. 1, 2023.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-increases-maximum-size-arm
ed-forces-by-170000-servicemen-2023-12-01
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 1, 2023 11:02 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Notice how NATO always expands FIRST?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 2, 2023 7:02 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Why “Not losing" is not tantamount to winning

Can Putin wait for the West to give up on Ukraine?

By Lawrence Freedman | Nov 23, 2023
https://samf.substack.com/p/why-not-losing-is-not-tantamount and
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2023/11/vladimir-put
in-still-wants-to-win


In an article last weekend, Mark Galeotti, one of the best informed of all Russia-watchers, reported that Putin had just enjoyed one of his best periods of his war with Ukraine. His views are not out of line with other commentators, for example Shaun Walker in the Guardian, all reflecting a more downbeat mood after the optimism earlier in the year that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would see the liberation of much more territory and add to the pressure on Putin to seek a way out of the war.

The starting point for the gloom is that Ukraine’s offensive operations, though not yet abandoned, have yielded only limited territorial gains, and as the winter mud makes movement difficult there are unlikely to be any major advances until the ground hardens next spring. The Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. In recent weeks most attention has been focused on a Russian offensive, targeted on Avdiivka, in Donetsk. This thus far has also achieved little, and at a high cost in Russian casualties, but the effort to hold it has required Ukraine to pull back forces from more promising operations elsewhere.

For the coming months Russia is in a better position in terms of shell production. The EU is falling short in its ambition to provide Ukraine with a million artillery shells and rockets by March, while Russia is now on a war footing in terms of production and has benefited from an influx of North Korean shells. Because of the surge of expenditure on the war effort its economy is growing fast. Over time Moscow has found more workarounds to limit the impact of Western sanctions. Through financial incentives it is able to keep up the flow of new recruits to feed the front lines.

Political tensions in Russia are kept well below the surface. Critics are cowed if not in exile or prison and Putin is looking forward to his rigged presidential election in March. By contrast, the frustrations of the past year have unsurprisingly led to tensions at the top in Ukraine, notably between President Zelensky and commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny. Zaluzhny’s candid interview with the Economist in which he described the war as stalemate irritated Zelensky who wants to stay upbeat. Yet while stalemate may not be a good description of the situation, the problems to which Zaluzhny alluded are real. Getting sufficient ammunition and recruits will be a challenge over the coming year. At the same time, the West has been distracted by events in the Middle East, which means that the effort required to support Ukraine has been lacking, especially when there is a need to get another bill to support Ukraine through a wholly dysfunctional Congress. There have been reports that US military supplies otherwise intended for Ukraine, including 155mm artillery rounds, have been diverted to Israel, though this issue tends to be overstated as their military needs are quite different.

There are, as Galeotti notes, some contrary trends that might lead Putin to worry about short-term military advantages evaporating during the course of next year. The economy is already showing signs of overheating leading to high inflation. He also notes recent polling which

‘for the first time found more Russians in favour of peace talks (48 per cent) than continuing the war (39 per cent) — and only 21 per cent thinking the economy will improve, while 43 per cent assume it will worsen.’

So whatever satisfaction Putin may feel at the moment, the issue is whether he can be confident that Russia’s relative position will strengthen even more over the coming year. Galeotti argues that Putin’s ‘real strategy is to attempt to outlast the West’s interest in Ukraine’. On that basis he claims that ‘not losing is tantamount to a win in his book’?

While I largely accept Galeotti’s analysis on this point I disagree. I don’t think ‘not losing’ is the same as winning, and I’m not convinced that Putin’s strategy involves little more than playing for time.

Winning and Losing

Put this the other way round. Is ‘not winning’ tantamount to ‘losing’? This is not just about playing with words. While a true loss, confirmed by a decisive military defeat, would be considered conclusive, a continuing failure to win can create a sense of futility and corrode the commitment necessary to sustain a military intervention. This is how many Western interventions have ended.

I asked the day after the full-scale invasion whether Putin had ‘launched an unwinnable war’. Because Russia failed to prevail with the advantages of surprise and apparently overwhelming strength, as Ukraine fought back and gained support, a clear-cut Russian victory became even less likely.

Losing, however, is still a different proposition. What would a Russia defeat look like? At the very least it would mean that having failed to achieve its objectives, Russia was obliged to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. This is the sort of defeat that Ukraine hopes to impose. It is also one that Russia has thus far been able to avoid because of the difficulty of dislodging it from all the territory currently occupied. An alternative form of defeat is rarely considered for Russia although it is often considered for Ukraine – that is the occupation of the capital and the installation of a compliant government. This reflects a fundamental asymmetry in the war: Russia’s objective is to subjugate Ukraine but it is inconceivable that Ukraine could do this to Russia. Ukraine is fighting to end the occupation; Russia is fighting to occupy.

It is always possible that failure in Ukraine could lead to upheavals in Russia. At one point this seemed to be happening with the Wagner mutiny. But the future of Putin’s regime depends on events within Moscow and Russia more widely. The Ukrainian army is not going to march to Moscow and impose surrender terms on the Kremlin. A Ukrainian victory has therefore always depended on Russia deciding that it was not worthwhile continuing with the war and seeking a peaceful way out. This is why all proposed peace deals require Kyiv conceding territory and Russia somehow promising to leave the rump Ukraine alone in the future. Those designing these putative deals never envisage Russian territory being offered to Ukraine as a quid pro quo. They also fail to ask why and how a ‘peace’ that leaves both sides dissatisfied is likely to be stable and not just be an interlude before the next round of fighting.

If this analysis is correct then the conclusion is frustrating. It is very difficult for Ukraine to achieve a definitive victory. Ending the war depends on a Russian decision to extract itself from a futile and calamitous war. This requires Putin not only acknowledging an expensive failure, but also abandoning his war aims. He has given no indication of being prepared to do either.

‘Not losing’, in the sense normally understood, of avoiding an unambiguous military defeat, is therefore not really the issue. There was a point, in early September 2022, when that did seem to be on the cards, but in response Putin doubled down, moving to full mobilization and even more expansive war aims. It is now far less likely that Russia will lose. But crucially Putin does not see that as a tantamount to a win and he is not reconciled to the idea that he can’t win.

This is why the widespread assumption that a cease-fire could easily be achieved with a bit of imaginative Western diplomacy and some pressure on Kyiv to make the best of a bad job is wrong. If that is what he wanted Putin could have offered a cease-fire any time over the past year if only to see the sort of pressure to which Zelensky was then subjected by those keen to extract a positive response. If the war stopped now with a cease-fire Putin could claim whatever territory Russia still holds as a major gain, but it would be far short of controlling all the territory hurriedly ‘annexed’ last autumn and which is now officially presented as part of Russia. He would still have to explain what the past year’s fighting was about as Russia has barely added to its holdings and lost some ground. The prize of all this effort would be distressed and depopulated territories, challenging to occupy and defend, and continuing hostility from the rest of Ukraine as it edged towards membership of the EU and NATO. This is why Putin wanted a submissive government in Kyiv in the first place: unless he gets one it is hard to see he can view any outcome as satisfactory and durable. At the virtual 20 meeting on Wednesday Putin described the war as a ‘tragedy’, adding that:

‘And of course, we should think about how to stop this tragedy. By the way, Russia has never refused peace talks with Ukraine.’

This is not the first time that Putin has spoken in these terms, but when pushed further it transpires that his interest in diplomacy is only to help him achieve some of his core objectives, such as Ukrainian neutrality or the transfer of even more territory than currently occupied to the Russian Federation. We can take such calls more seriously when they open with a promise to withdraw from Ukrainian territory,

Galeotti argues Putin’s ‘real strategy is to attempt to outlast the West’s interest in Ukraine’. From the start Russia put a lot of effort into persuading Ukraine’s backers that this was a losing cause for which they were paying an unnecessarily high price. This was why they created an energy crisis in 2022 which did have a deleterious effect on Western economies though not one sufficient to undermine support for Ukraine’s war effort. While Ukraine might have wished for key capabilities to have been provided quicker the level of political, economic, and material support runs high. At the moment the challenge is to get new packages through EU processes, against some Slovakian resistance, and through the US Congress, with some (but not all) Republicans reluctant to authorise any more support for Kyiv. If these efforts fail then that will create serious short-term problems for Ukraine, though both packages will probably be approved. That was certainly the message taken by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Kyiv on a recent visit, anxious to refute suggestions that Washington was losing interest and distracted by Gaza.

‘I'm here today to deliver an important message – the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine in their fight for freedom against Russia’s aggression, both now and into the future.’

There are political and capacity challenges involved in keeping up support for Ukraine but they ought to be manageable, especially when compared with the consequences of handing Russia a victory.

The event most likely to bring US backing for Ukraine to a juddering halt would be a victory by Donald Trump in a year’s time. Given the impact of his last period in the White House, and what he has said since, this would send shock waves through the whole American alliance system. What he would actually do would depend on his own priorities (probably pardoning himself), appointments to key positions and the readiness of the ‘deep state’ to work with them, and the composition of Congress. Trump has claimed that he could end the war in ’24 hours’ but he says that about most of the intractable problems of government. But whatever the uncertainties it is hard to see how a Trump presidency would be good for Ukraine or NATO, and Putin might assume this to be such a positive possibility that it is one worth waiting for.

It is however no more than a possibility and still a year away. Nikki Haley, now the most promising alternative Republican nominee, would support Ukraine. Putin therefore has coping strategies for the long term – including a war economy and a hope that Ukraine will struggle to keep its own war effort going and will lose vital support – but I am not sure that he sees these as guaranteeing victory.

It may also be the case that Putin is thinking more about his own presidential election on 17 March than the American election in November. In the West this election is barely taken seriously as the result is hardly in doubt, but Putin does worry about questions of turnout and expressions of popular enthusiasm. An early military victory would give him something to boast about. An alternative view, which may fit in better with the fighting conditions, is the one expressed by Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council Secretary, Oleksii Danilov, who told a Canadian audience that:

‘After Putin’s enthronement, the regime will be anchored, (which) basically means giving it a free hand. That is why Ukraine and the global community have 3-4 months to prepare relevantly.’

Danilov believes that with the election behind him, Putin would be able to mobilise even more troops. Either way the idea that Putin is waiting for the West to give up is misleading. He is still hoping for an early military breakthrough.

Perhaps because of the setbacks faced by Russia after the full-scale invasion, the idea of Russia ‘winning’ by fully defeating Ukrainian forces has also been discounted. I tend to agree that this is unlikely, especially if Ukraine continues to benefit from Western support. But Putin, encouraged by a compliant military leadership, may take a different view. He seeks an outcome that looks more like a win. This is his preference and he would like a win of sorts to come sooner rather than later. If he lacks confidence that things will turn even more to Russia’s advantage by the end of next year then he might at least hope to exploit what many assume to be current advantages in manpower and ordnance that should be in play for the coming months. Should Putin fail to get a quick win, then the question becomes one of whether at some point ‘not winning’ really does start to look too much like ‘losing’.

Russian Offensives

The best evidence of Putin’s determination to see some serious military progress is the massive offensives launched by Russia in early October, almost as soon as he was convinced that the Ukrainian offensive had run its course. These have largely been in the Donbas region, with the battle for the strategically-placed town of Avdiivka the most prominent. They could well be geared to Putin’s minimum objective, which is to gain control over all of Donetsk and Luhansk, whose supposedly precarious security position provided the original pretext for the full-scale invasion. It is even possible that achieving this objective would lead him to offer a cease-fire, on the grounds that this could be presented as a victory. Equally if this objective is not achieved it is hard to imagine him accepting one.

It is too early to say that these new offensives have failed, as there have been some gains and forces are being gathered for an even more determined push. So far there has not been much to give the Russian generals great encouragement. Whatever the adaptability they have shown in defensive operations there is little to suggest that they have come up with more innovative offensive tactics. They still view infantry as an expendable resource and rely on constant pressure and bombardment to wear down Ukrainian resistance. Their forces suffer as a result of the familiar challenges of minefields, drones, and the artillery fire that follows detection. Whatever limited progress has been made has come at an enormous cost. Zaluzhny claimed on 10 November that Russia had suffered some 10,000 casualties since 10 October, and had lost over 100 tanks, 250 other armored vehicles, about 50 artillery systems and seven Su-25 aircraft.

Even allowing for some exaggeration these are staggering losses, which if experienced by Ukraine would have led to gloomy questions about their ability to stay in the fight, and the wastefulness of their tactics. Somehow it is now assumed that in an unaccountable system, with soldiers taken from minorities and the poor, these casualties barely register in Russian society and cause no political backlash. Yet even if the Russians are prepared to take such losses in their stride, the readiness to risk them is not the action of a government content just to hold ground until the enemy and its supporters tire of war. These are the actions of an impatient government looking for early results.

If my analysis is correct then ‘not losing’ on the basis of the current lines of contact is not tantamount to a win because it leaves the Russian grip on Ukraine tenuous and circumscribed. For Putin ‘not winning’ is better than losing but it is not enough. He may be prepared for the war to go on for years to get to a win but there is no reasons to suppose that he relishes years of gruelling positional battles without a major breakthrough any more than Zelensky.

And Russia, unlike Ukraine, has a choice. It has the option of withdrawing from the fight. While Putin might hope that time is on his side and that the West will lose interest there is an alternative possibility that support for Ukraine will continue and even strengthen, as ordnance production steps up, and that the Russian people and elite will become progressively more anxious as the war drags on. If so, he may see the coming months as a chance to make real gains in the war. Ukraine is tired and depleted, with insufficient ammunition and stressed air defences. This explains the effort and urgency apparent in Russia’s current operations.

In my next post I will look at the implications of this analysis for Ukraine’s strategy, and in particular the special challenges to be faced in the period until spring and then the value of a strategy that ensures that Russia keeps ‘not winning’ as opposed to one that promises, unrealistically, an early win for Ukraine.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 2, 2023 7:09 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 2, 2023 11:31 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


What should Ukraine do next?

Preparing for a Long War

By Lawrence Freedman | Nov 29, 2023
https://samf.substack.com/p/what-should-ukraine-do-next

In my previous post I discussed the likely form Putin’s strategy would take when Russia is neither winning nor losing its war with Ukraine. If a cease-fire was agreed tomorrow, Russia would be left with a significant amount of Ukrainian territory but less than sought, in a form difficult to occupy and defend over the long term and requiring significant funds to reconstruct and subsidise. It would not be able to stop Ukraine getting close to NATO and the EU. The assumption that Putin would readily agree to a cease-fire if only Zelensky could be persuaded to agree to one does not reflect the logic of Russia’s strategic position. Russia has not proposed one, although Putin has recently spoken in general terms about the desirability of peace.

Putin wants substantive political concessions from Ukraine, accepting both the loss of territory and some sort of veto over its foreign policy. He will also want the sanctions regime to be unravelled. Full negotiations on a comprehensive peace settlement, which these demands would require, could be extraordinarily protracted and complex. (Ukraine would raise issues of reparations and war crimes.) A cease-fire would allow both sides time to regroup and refresh but for neither would this represent a satisfactory or stable outcome.

It is possible that the fighting will reach a genuine deadlock where both sides have secured their positions and neither feels strong enough to mount an offensive. The conflict would then acquire an uneasy stasis, but we are far from that situation. For now the prospect is of continuing fighting that does not quite reach a conclusion, which in principle could go on for many years. Conditions might change sufficiently to trigger some serious diplomatic activity: a sudden shift in balance of military advantage or the wider political context (for example after a Trump presidential victory).

Putin may suppose that over time Russia is more likely to benefit from such changes, but he cannot be sure of that, nor that if they come they will be in a form that he can fully exploit. As Ukraine is perceived to be suffering the aftereffects of a disappointing counter-offensive and shortages of manpower and ordnance, my analysis suggests that Putin would still prefer to create these conditions sooner rather than later and has not given up hope of being able to do so. That explains the extraordinary effort that Russia has put into its own recent offensive operations.

These operations only work if they persuade Kyiv that it has no choice but to tolerate some occupation of its territory and restrictions on its future security policies. If they fail to do so Putin is left with a problem. Even if his economy does not fall off a cliff edge, or Ukraine is unable to make significant gains of its own, a continuing failure to reach an outcome that looks like a ‘win’, in that it meets minimum objectives and has some chance of sticking once the guns fall silent, will be problematic. Though Putin may no longer fear a comprehensive battlefield defeat he needs to beware a growing sense of pointlessness and futility. Public support for the war in Russia is stable but also uneasy, with a slight majority believing the war has done more harm than good, and while over 70% support peace talks far fewer support any concession to Ukraine. The war will soon be taking up a third of all government spending, which is a lot for what began as a limited ‘special military operation’. Remilitarising society (the budget for propaganda is also going up) and then failing to achieve a military solution in Ukraine is going to lead to more questions. Ukraine’s capacity for long-range strikes is growing and while Ukraine will not be able to attack Russia to the same extent as Russia attacks Ukraine the extent to which it can do so could prove to be an embarrassment and can undermine confidence in the security of Crimea.

What does this mean for Ukrainian strategy?

For Ukraine the stakes are much higher as its territory is under occupation and it shows no signs of being reconciled to its permanent loss. So while it is not easy for Putin to end the war, and I have no optimism that he will soon seek to do so, in the end it is still easier for him than Zelensky. If Ukraine is not prepared to concede territory there is not much more for it to discuss with Russia. In the talks that took place in March and April 2022 the issue of neutrality was on the table. That discussion fell apart because Ukraine still did not want to be left defenceless, and wanted security guarantees of some sort, while the revelation of atrocities in the liberated areas around Kyiv added to the urgency of freeing all territory from Russian occupation. On this matter the Russian proposals had been vague.

So there is no obvious negotiated way out of the war for Ukraine at the moment nor a straightforward route to a military victory. With no prospect of an early tolerable conclusion this is a difficult period in the war for Ukraine. In this respect like Russia it is stuck between being able to do enough to avoid losing but not enough to win. Its people are tired and are coming to terms with just how long this war may drag on. Ukraine is building up its own military production but is still dependent upon foreign support. It wants these supporters to do more but is worried that they will be doing less, making it difficult to sustain even the current level of effort. It is also ending the year as it began, pushing scarce resources into defending territory against a Russian onslaught.

The hopes for its own offensive were not realised. It was always going to be difficult to break through well prepared Russian defences, especially without air power and with fresh units that were inexperienced in complex offensive operations and had only limited training. And so it proved. It did not take long for Ukraine to change tactics, which stemmed the losses, but these meant slower movement. By the measure of territory liberated, the one that dominated last spring’s conversations, the results have been disappointing. There have been other developments that have been more positive, of which more below, but 2023 has taken its toll and there is now a challenge working out how best to approach 2024.

The first part of this challenge – assuming that the government judges that this is also the will of the people – is to acknowledge the possibility of a long war and preparing accordingly. This does require a national consensus. There are fissures appearing among the elite though these are not unusual for countries facing stressful times. A degree of tension in civil-military relations is also natural and can be a good thing. But if infighting becomes chronic and decision-making starts to get paralysed with strategies not subjected to criticism and scrutiny, the tensions can soon become harmful. This is something that needs to be addressed so that the country can reinvigorate its message of unity and defiance, so powerful in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion.

The second part is to accept that there are no quick fixes. There is always a temptation, to which Putin may have succumbed, to believe in the one ‘big push’ that will decide the war. Better to conserve capabilities, improve local arms production, and step-up training so that the forces can be more effective in the future at the battalion and divisional level. (The challenges in doing this are explained by Jack Watling in this podcast with Gideon Rachman). There may still be offensive operations, and some perhaps will exceed expectations, but Ukraine is unlikely to be able to invest all resources and hopes in a single campaign. Meanwhile defensive operations, which will continue to be essential, must be seen as being about more than holding the line but also about reducing Russian capabilities and morale.

This leads to the third part of the challenge. Military operations are naturally assessed in terms of territory gained or lost. When there is little movement, as has been the case during 2023, then the next measure tends to be attrition. Even with an apparently inconclusive encounter one side may emerge so bruised that it will be hampered in future encounters. But attrition can only truly be judged by reference to the ease with which casualties, equipment lost, and ammunition expended can be replaced. The effects are therefore cumulative and conditional and in some areas may be quite temporary.

The other way to assess the implications of any operations, whether offensive and defensive, will be on elite perceptions and decision-making in Moscow. This is even harder to measure and depends on many factors that shape the way that governments think. But it is not an objective to be dismissed. The aim is to underline how badly a long war might yet go for Russia. This requires Ukraine to work out what might worry Moscow most. This has already encouraged a focus on Crimea the most important Russian gain of 2014 and which is already looking less rather than more secure as a result of the full-scale invasion. At some point it might be possible to mount a proper land attack to retake the territory but for now the point can be made by regular strikes on targets inside Crimea, and threatening supply lines, including the Kerch Bridge between the mainland and the peninsular, which has already been struck a number of times.

The Land War

So far Russia has shown no inclination to slow the pace of the war. Even when it was more on the defensive over the summer months it counter-attacked continually so that Ukrainian forces were unable to consolidate any advance. As soon as the Ukrainian offensive was apparently winding down, they revived their own offensive in Donetsk. The only general who gave priority to defence, as he wished to concentrate on taking out Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, was General Sergey Surovikin. Because he was too close to Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner group he has been demoted and sidelined. Putin’s inclination, transmitted to his generals, has been to stay on the offensive, relying on superior numbers to overwhelm the Ukrainians, and apparently caring little about casualties.

The main Russian military objective for now is to complete its occupation of the two oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk. For months now Russian forces have been pushing forward along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in Luhansk, with only limited gains, while they have put a massive effort into taking the city of Avdiivka, which is seen as making possible the control of Donetsk. Avdiivka is turning into one of those long and gruelling fights where Ukrainian defenders seek to hold their positions against constant Russian attacks. The Russians have made some progress in areas close to the besieged and now largely destroyed city, with their main focus being the industrial area on its southeastern edge. Their aim is to cut off supply lines and leave Ukrainian forces trapped. So far they have failed to achieve this, and have suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses. Ukraine still controls the major highways into the city. The Russian command seems reluctant to give up on Avdiivka, so we shall see whether a combination of losses and weather forces it to reduce the intensity and regularity of its attacks.

While this has been going on Ukraine has successfully opened up a new front on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. This could relieve pressure on the city of Kherson on the West Bank, which has suffered from regular Russian shelling since Ukrainian forces reoccupied the city about a year ago, and it potentially opens up a new route to get at Crimea, but for the moment it is largely about potential.

Critical Infrastructure

Last winter, Russia launched a massive bombing campaign targeting Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure. The aim was essentially to deprive the country of energy, leading to social breakdown. The campaign began in October 2022 and lasted until March, as the weather improved, and was conducted by regular waves of missiles and kamikaze drones. Although some 40 percent of the energy infrastructure was damaged, so that Ukrainians became familiar with periods of darkness and little water, they demonstrated resilience as engineers worked to repair or replace the damaged systems and extra air defence systems arrived. At times, however the campaign was close to succeeding, at least to the point where consideration was being given to evacuating major cities, including Kyiv.

Winter weather has now arrived and so has a new Russian campaign. It arrived most dramatically on the morning of 25 November with a massive drone attack, using a variety of flight paths to confuse air defences, largely but not solely targeted on Kyiv. Of the 75 drones sent, 74 were shot down over a six-hour period, with the major damage caused by falling debris. This was the anniversary of the Holodomor, the famine deliberately caused by Soviet leader Joseph Stalin in the early 1930s that led to the deaths of millions of Ukrainians. Follow up attacks since have been quite small but more that are much larger must be expected. Ukraine’s concern is that these drone attacks use up scarce and expensive air defence missiles so that there is insufficient capacity to cope with Russian missiles when they start coming through in numbers.

One new feature of Ukraine’s strategy is a readiness to retaliate. In late October Zelensky observed that: ‘This year we will not only defend ourselves, but also respond.’ Ukraine has longer range capabilities, such as the UK Storm Shadow and US ATACMS. Although in both cases they have agreed not to use them against Russian territory, only targets in Russian controlled territory, including Crimea. But they can use drones. Since October it has launched attacks on at least three electricity substations and an oil refinery in the Krasnodar region of Russia. The day after the drone strikes against Kyiv, Ukraine sent drones of its own against a power station in Starobesheve in Russian-held territory. Sufficient got through to cut power to towns and cities, including the regional capital of Donetsk. An aircraft factory in Smolensk has also been reportedly struck recently. The Russian authorities also claimed to have shot down 11 drones on Saturday night and another nine on Sunday. Again, this is not a transformational capability, but it can eat away at Russian confidence.

The Black Sea

The naval war has attracted far less attention than the land war, not least because Ukraine lacks a navy. Yet by using missiles and drones Ukraine has been able to make the position of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet barely tenable by both striking individual vessels and compromising the naval base in Sevastopol on the edge of Crimea. (We can recall that part of the rationale for annexing Crimea in 2014 was to prevent a new Ukrainian government denying Russia its special rights over Sevastopol.)

The Black Sea Fleet has menaced Ukraine by putting the port city of Odesa at risk, threatening the main routes for the export of foodstuffs, and also by launching Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities. To deal with this menace Ukraine has used uncrewed surface vessels, carrying explosives, to attack Russian warships at sea and in port, to the point where the fleet has been obliged to retreat. Because they don’t carry crew these have the advantage of sitting low in the water and getting heavier payloads directly to their targets. Russian ships are now wary about getting too close to Ukrainian shores. Nor is it easy for Russia to reinforce the fleet because Turkey has closed the Bosphorus Strait to warships other than those of Black Sea nations, as it is entitled to do under the Montreux Conventions.

As it became harder for Russia to enforce a full blockade, and with complaints that it was denying poorer countries essential food supplies, it agreed a deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in July 2022, that allowed Ukraine to export grain and other foodstuffs from three of its ports. Persistent Ukrainian attacks, including on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters and Russian submarines in Sevastopol, led to Russia withdrawing from the grain deal last July. This was followed by attacks on Odesa and other ports. Russia said it would treat commercial ships going to Ukraine as potentially carrying weapons. The Ukrainian response was to start attacking Russian ships while setting up a humanitarian corridor for commercial ships to travel to and from Ukrainian ports.

In September more Russian ships were attacked, followed on 22 September by an attack on naval headquarters in Crimea which killed, according to Ukraine, 33 Russian officers. (They claimed that the commander of the Black Sea Fleet Viktor Sokolov died in the strike. Sokolov appeared in a Russian video of an on—line Russian command conference the next day, but has not been seen since). The UK’s Armed Forces Minister James Heappey spoke in early October of the ‘functional defeat’ of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. It moved its base from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, although it also reportedly reinforced the fleet with two extra frigates and a submarine. The attacks continued into November, with a newly built Russian corvette damaged while at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch in Crimea, the furthest east Ukraine had managed to strike into Crimea, adding to Russia’s problems of basing, and the challenge of air defences. On 17 November Ukraine claimed that its naval operations had led to the destruction of 15 Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea since February 2022 and that 12 other vessels had been damaged.

Meanwhile the humanitarian corridor continues to work. Over 100 ships have now passed through and a million tons of grain have been successfully transported. The UK has contributed a special insurance fund to support the corridor. The waters around Ukraine are not without hazards. A Liberian-flagged oil tanker hit a mine in October, and another Liberian-flagged commercial ship, was hit by a missile strike against Odesa in November, killing a harbour pilot and injuring three crew members. Zelensky has claimed, without providing details that international partners are preparing to provide Ukraine’s Naval Forces with cutters to bolster security along the grain corridor and ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels carrying food products.

None of this makes that much difference to land operations, and in some ways it is secondary, but one of Russia’s forms of pressure has been thwarted, and it is not a good look for the Black Sea Fleet

Conclusion

I have argued that the logic of the situation turns the prevailing assumptions upside down. Instead of Ukraine pushing for a quick victory while Russia waits for its support to wane in the West, Ukraine needs to show patience and concentrate on strengthening its position for the longer term. A dash for a quick victory would exhaust scarce resources and, if it failed, lead to further demoralisation. This is essentially what Russia has been trying to do and, despite its advantages, it has not succeeded and suffered heavy losses. Even if it gets in a position to take Avdiivka it will struggle to push on in the land war. The next few months will be difficult, especially if missile attacks directed against critical infrastructure start to get through its air defences and threats of retaliation fail to deter. The costs and pain of war should never be understated and they can be harder to endure when victory appears as a distant prospect. The challenge for political leadership in Ukraine and in the West is to demonstrate that there is a way forward.

Confidence is not helped by regular warnings of the risks to the current levels of support from the US and Europe. The risks are real but commentary on these has been overdone. The intricacies of decision-making in the US Congress and in the EU are sources of delay but they can be navigated and probably will be. These delays have their costs, as can be seen in the shortage of ammunition. Western production is increasing but this has been too slow and the benefits to Ukraine will not come through until late next year. Of course everything might get messed up by a Trump victory but one cannot base policy on a speculative possibility.

Looking ahead it is as important that Western countries gear up for a long war. Russia’s economy is tiny compared to theirs, and while some grumble at the economic burden they are not the ones doing the fighting. The costs and impact of a Russian victory would be far greater. Economic sanctions can be tightened, and seized Russian financial assets diverted to help Ukraine. These will not provide killer blows, but they can add to concern in Russia that the longer the war continues the tougher it will be for them. It will be easier for their supporters to do this if Ukraine demonstrates that it has a coherent strategy, so that it can cope with Russian aggression in whatever form it takes while preparing for more focused offensive action of its own either later in 2024 or, as likely, in 2025. Above all it must reinforce the message that this is a war that Russia can never win.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 2, 2023 2:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I know SECOND'S mental state is fragmenting when he has to post excessively long justifications/ rationalizations to shore up his narrative.

Hey SECOND: Nobody's gonna read your bullshit, and no matter how many words someone writes a square is not a circle, and Ukraine is still losing.
What Russia is doing now is "active defense" according to Shoigu. (Local offensives along the entire frontline.) Apparently we haven't seen the real offensive yet.

Edited to add: Last October, our National Security statement said that Russia was running out of shells, missiles, and people, Ukraine was "winning", and the USA was the strongest military in the world and defending democracy across the globe
All propaganda and worth only as TP. Pretty much like anything our establishment and conjoined media publishes.
Idiots.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 2, 2023 5:26 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I know SECOND'S mental state is fragmenting when he has to post excessively long justifications/ rationalizations to shore up his narrative.

Hey SECOND: Nobody's gonna read your bullshit, and no matter how many words someone writes a square is not a circle, and Ukraine is still losing.
What Russia is doing now is "active defense" according to Shoigu. (Local offensives along the entire frontline.) Apparently we haven't seen the real offensive yet.

Edited to add: Last October, our National Security statement said that Russia was running out of shells, missiles, and people, Ukraine was "winning", and the USA was the strongest military in the world and defending democracy across the globe
All propaganda and worth only as TP. Pretty much like anything our establishment and conjoined media publishes.
Idiots.

Signym: Where is that National Security Statement you are paraphrasing? That is NOT how any bureaucracy phrases things, by the way, even in paraphrase. And do you realize last October was only two months ago? It should be very easy for you to find that document and give a real quote from it. I'll give you a paraphrase from Putin: "Victory shall soon be ours! (Silently: but not before the next election.) Vote for me in 2024 because I'm the only person standing up to NATO and its intentions to destroy Mother Russia!"

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 2, 2023 5:41 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/8-November-Combi
ned-PDF-for-Upload.pdf


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 2, 2023 11:39 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


"General to General" negotiations between Zaluzhny and Gerasomov? So says Seymour Hersch.


Quote:

Meaning In History
Read in the Substack app

Seymour Hersh's Weird 'General To General' Negotiation Story
Mark Wauck
Dec 2, 2023

Yesterday noted investigative reporter Seymour Hersh came out with a new substack article. In it, Hersh advances the wildly implausible idea that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is being secretly negotiated by the two generals in charge of their respective country’s war efforts: Valery Gerasimov on the Russian side and Valery Zaluzhny on the Ukrainian side:

GENERAL TO GENERAL

A potential peace is being negotiated in Ukraine by military leaders


To get a flavor for just how implausible this narrative is, consider this paragraph:

The driving force of those talks has not been Washington or Moscow, or Biden or Putin, but instead the two high-ranking generals who run the war, Valery Gerasimov of Russia and Valery Zaluzhny of Ukraine. to tell 4

In other words, Hersh is asking readers to believe that these two generals have taken upon themselves the task, not of fighting and winning a war, but of negotiating a peace. And that behind the backs of their respective country’s elected leaders and political power structures (on Gerasimov’s Russian side, that would be the Russian Security Council). On its face, such shenanigans would be treasonous for either general.

Now, it’s true that this narrative comes at a time of open disarray and feuding within what Russia refers to as “the Kiev regime”—not even deigning to refer to the government of a country called Ukraine. It is also a time in which there is open and widespread speculation that the Zhou regime in DC is plotting the removal of Zelensky from Kiev, to be replaced by a new leadership team in which none other than Zaluzhny himself would be the real power. That, one presumes, is the meaning of the trip to Kiev by the de facto SecState of the US (officially Director, CIA), William Burns—a desperate attempt to get Zelensky back on board with the American program. Again, it’s no secret that the American Empire—faced with a growing debacle in Ukraine and the prospect of a humiliatingly decisive Russian victory in an American election year—is increasingly desperate to put a stop to the war by hook or by crook, before Ukraine is totally destroyed as a nation worth looting. From this perspective, it could make a bit of sense to suppose that Zaluzhny would put out feelers to the Russian side, if he had the American Empire at his back.

Nevertheless, Hersh’s narrative was widely dismissed by all sides of the opinion spectrum—Neocons as well as those backing a productive peace. Alexander Mercouris, today, rejected Hersh’s goofy claim that Gerasimov was telling Zaluzhny that Russia could accept Ukraine membership in NATO. Mercouris, correctly, stated that this was “all but incomprehensible.” I would delete the “all but.” Such a concession would be tantamount to Russia suddenly declaring its own defeat in a war that leading figures in the West are conceding that Russia has won. Putin would be signing off on his political—and conceivably personal—demise were he to accept such a ridiculous concept. The whole point of this costly war for Russia has been to thwart a Ukrainian accession to NATO.

Beyond that, Russia, having been lied to repeatedly (in Minsk and then in Istanbul) by Ukraine at the direction of the American Empire, has repeatedly stated that there would be no negotiating with intermediaries—only face to face negotiations with American officials. The US is being presented by Russia with the alternative: either perform yet another bugout for all the world to see, or reveal your guiding role and sit down to negotiate with us—again, for all the world to see. Which is precisely the humiliating set of choices that the Neocons are attempting to avoid.

In fact, yesterday in Skopje Russia’s world class foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (also a member of the Russian Security Council), shot down any notions that negotiations were ongoing. Back in 2017 Lavrov had stated that, in diplomacy, it takes two to tango but that, while Russia was prepared to tango, the US was breakdancing. Lavrov revived that metaphor in describing the current situation:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that it takes two people to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, like in tango, and Ukraine and its Western curators are breaking dancing.

Lavrov said this during a press conference following the meeting of the OSCE foreign ministers in Skopje.

The minister stressed that so far Russia has not seen on the part of Kiev and its "masters" a willingness to start a settlement of the conflict.

"In order to start a political process, you need two, just like in tango, but the guys on the other side dance not tango, but breakdance," Lavrov said.


In other words, Lavrov reiterated the Russian position that the “Kiev regime” is not a sovereign and independent actor—it is a puppet regime of the American Empire. Therefore, no true settlement can take place without direct talks between the two real parties in interest: Russia and Americ

Now, yesterday in the comments to our post Big Serge On The Theory Of Modern War--With Examples, Hersh’s narrative was the hot topic of discussion. We all agreed that, as it stood, it was nonsensical. That led to the question: What were Hersh’s sources using him to put out in public? The general consensus was this. Given that the Neocons refuse to negotiate face to face with the Russians, Hersh was being used to let the Russian side know what terms the American Empire was willing to accept—and enforce on the Kiev Regime—in other words, the Hersh narrative represented an indirect negotiating gambit. There are two problems with that. The first is that the terms being offered—Ukraine’s entry to NATO—are a deal breaker from the get go. The second is that Russia is demanding an actual treaty, ratified by the US Senate. That was what Putin proposed before beginning his Special Military Operation and the success of Russia’s military campaign and defeat of the sanctions war will, no doubt, have only strengthened his resolve in that regard.

Simplicius the Thinker, in one of his trademark long posts, addresses some of these issues today. Firstly, Simplicius characterizes the core part of the narrative as “eye rolling”:

Firstly, many have understandably rolled their eyes at the claim that Russia is ready to give Ukraine the NATO allowance, or is content to simply walk away with Crimea and Donbass. But keep in mind, since this was relayed to Hersh through an alleged “American official,” it likely represents just the American side’s offers, not what the Russian side is necessarily actually willing to accept—but who knows.

But as we have seen, America may be making offers, but Russia is ignoring them. Simplicius goes on to rehearse several of the recent Russian rejections, which include direct statements that strongly indicate Russia’s intent to prosecute the war to its logical conclusion—the dissolution of the Ukrainian puppet state:

Let me add that there has been an increasing volume of voices from the Russian side pointing to the complete disavowal of any potential ceasefires. All the usuals like Medvedev and co. have been barking but there’s been a few interesting new additions. For instance, Russian deputy foreign minister Ryabkov said there’ll be no ceasefire in all of 2024:

Is that an indicator that Russia intends to put an end to the war in 2024? Maybe so:



MORE AT https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/seymour-hershs-weird-general-t
o-general




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, December 3, 2023 7:09 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/8-November-Combi
ned-PDF-for-Upload.pdf


Signym, too bad for you, but it does NOT say what you claim it says. It does say:

"We will continue to stand with the people of Ukraine as they fight back against Russia’s naked aggression. And we will rally the world to hold Russia accountable for the atrocities they have unleashed across Ukraine."

Signym, your not reading and your misunderstanding are your standard operating procedure:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I know SECOND'S mental state is fragmenting when he has to post excessively long justifications/ rationalizations to shore up his narrative.

Hey SECOND: Nobody's gonna read your bullshit, and no matter how many words someone writes a square is not a circle, and Ukraine is still losing.
What Russia is doing now is "active defense" according to Shoigu. (Local offensives along the entire frontline.) Apparently we haven't seen the real offensive yet.

Edited to add: Last October, our National Security statement said that Russia was running out of shells, missiles, and people, Ukraine was "winning", and the USA was the strongest military in the world and defending democracy across the globe
All propaganda and worth only as TP. Pretty much like anything our establishment and conjoined media publishes.
Idiots.



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, December 3, 2023 7:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russians violate a basic rule of fieldcraft on a battlefield where enemy surveillance, and aerial firepower, is everywhere. “All latrine calls should be done during darkness, if possible,” the U.S. Army advises in its field manual for snipers.

On Ukraine’s drone-patrolled front line, all soldiers — even those who aren’t marksmen — must contend with the same fundamental problem that traditionally has been unique to snipers. Namely, concealment is survival. And using the latrine outside of your hidden position represents a profound risk.

Minimally-trained and poorly-led Russian conscripts might not know this. For the Ukrainians, this inexperience is an opportunity. “The winter once again poses an opportunity to maximize Russian losses,” analyst Jack Watling wrote in a recent essay for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

“If Russian troops are drawn into the defense along a wide front, with Ukrainian troops pushing into opportunities rather than trying to break through defended areas, then Russian forces will be outside, getting wet and cold,” Watling wrote.

“If targeted strikes can degrade their logistics, then the limited training and fieldcraft of Russian forces can maximize climatic injuries.” Including injuries resulting from ill-considered attempts to use the latrine during the daytime.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/02/ukrainian-drones-targ
et-russian-troops-when-theyre-most-vulnerable-while-using-the-bathroom
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, December 3, 2023 7:50 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin’s War Party

How Russia’s Election Will Validate Autocracy — and Permanent Conflict With the West

By Andrei Kolesnikov | December 1, 2023
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-war-party

“If there is Putin, there is Russia; if there is no Putin, there is no Russia,” the current speaker of the State Duma, the aggressive loyalist Vyacheslav Volodin, pronounced, back in 2014. He was outlining an ideal autocracy, one in which the country would be equated with its ruler and vice versa. At the time Volodin spoke those words, the Kremlin was basking in an upsurge of national euphoria following the annexation of Crimea. With the so-called Putin majority ascendant, the government could hasten its shift toward such a regime with broad popular approval.

But Volodin was a bit ahead of his time. It was not until the 2020 constitutional reform, which “reset” Russia’s presidential term limits and solidified Putin’s mature dictatorship, that his formula was codified in the country’s institutions. And it was in 2022, with the beginning of the “special operation” in Ukraine, that the propaganda meaning of “Putin equals Russia” became starkly apparent. As the Kremlin would have it, Putin’s war is Russia’s war, and by extension, a war involving all Russians — a fanciful notion that not only plays into the hands of regime propagandists but which has been readily embraced by many Western officials, as well. Of course, the real picture is far more complex.

By now, the Putin majority has long since been taken as a given, and no one talks about it anymore. Instead, there is the pro-war majority, which supports the war partly by ignoring it in everyday life. As for the anti-Putin minority, the Kremlin’s long-standing habit of treating with contempt any who dare oppose the president has been transformed into a policy of active persecution and denunciation. Opposition and civil society figures themselves have been systematically discredited, exiled, and eliminated.

Nonetheless, Putin still needs elections to give legitimacy to his eternal rule — and to his unending war. Thus, in March 2024, he will run for president for the fifth time since 2000. And as a result of the 2020 reform, it may not be the last, either. According to the changed constitution, Putin will able to run for office twice more — in 2024 and 2030 — meaning that he could rule until 2036, when he will be eighty-three years old. For now, it seems clear that Putin is ready to make full use of that opportunity, at least in the coming vote.

But this time, with the war in the background, there are new rules to the game, and both Putin and the Russian public know them. In exchange for keeping most of them out of the trenches, the passive majority of Russians will continue to support the government. And the elections — or rather, the mass approval of Putin’s activities — will show that the people, at least, are playing along. Ballots have become currency: Russians think that they can buy their own relative tranquility with them, even though there are no guarantees that Putin will keep his side of the bargain.

JUST SAY YES

Given the complete lack of alternatives to Putin, some of his supporters, such as the Chechen leader and fierce loyalist Ramzan Kadyrov, have proposed canceling the 2024 election altogether. Wouldn’t it be easier to forgo the vote, on the grounds that the country is at war, and that in any case, the Russian political field has been comprehensively cleared of competitors? Or why not elevate Putin to the title of supreme leader, national leader, or tsar, and then elect a formal president?

But Putin really needs elections, at least in theory. In addition to refreshing his legitimacy, they serve as a way to show that the opposition — through the predictable landslide outcome — remains a tiny minority and cannot go against the overwhelming will of the Russian people. Moreover, by voting for Putin in 2024, Russians will legitimize his war. Even if the active phase of that war ends someday, it will still need to continue through permanent confrontation with the West and as a rationale for unrelenting repression, suppression, and censorship at home.

It is essential for Putin to consolidate his narrative about the war.

Rather than elections, then, the March vote should be thought of as a kind of acclamation for the leader: they are simply voting yes to the only real choice available. Technically, this is a legitimate form of democratic expression, as enshrined in the constitution — and, apparently, in Russian history. (New textbooks for schools and universities discuss such Russian political traditions as the Novgorod veche, or popular assembly, in which everything was decided by shouting, approval, and acclamation by the crowd.) In other words, in the absence of any political competition, the regime has everything to gain from a fresh acclamation of its rule, and little to lose.

Putin’s high numbers are guaranteed. Some will vote for him out of a sense of falsely understood civic duty, some will be coerced to do so at work: such is the general state of paranoia in today’s Russia that people sometimes take a smartphone picture of their completed ballot and send it to their bosses, after which they get the right to return to their private lives. Other votes may be falsified, including, perhaps, with the help of electronic voting systems.

Still, deciding what content to fill the campaign with is another question. Obviously, it is essential for Putin to consolidate his narrative about the war. As Putin likes to say, “It was not us”: Russia was attacked by the West, and in response began a “national liberation struggle” to free Russia and other peoples enslaved by the West. And since Russians find themselves in a besieged fortress, they must give full support to their commander to repel both the enemy at the gates and the traitors and foreign agents within. By now, this logic has acquired the status of an axiom. Along with it comes a series of arguments — Russia is fighting for a “fairer multipolar world,” Russia is a special “state-civilization” — that justify the war, why it cannot end, and Putin’s rule itself. But what new element can be brought into the current election campaign, except, of course, an abstract declaration of peace and victory?

STORIES ABOUT WHEAT

In theory, the Russian public does not attach much significance to elections. In the minds of most people, there is simply no alternative to Putin, even if they think he is not particularly good. When Russians say “Putin,” they mean the president, and vice versa; like a medieval king, Putin has two bodies — one physical, one symbolic. Putin is the collective “we” of Russians, and voting for him every few years has become a ritual, like raising the flag or singing the national anthem on Mondays in high schools across Russia.

But the war has added a new dimension to this rite. During the “special operation,” an unwritten agreement has been established between the people and their leader. The gist of this special relationship is that as long as the state refrains from dragging (most) people into battle, Russians will not question Putin’s authority. The partial mobilization in the fall of 2022 briefly called into question the state’s promise, but since then the authorities have largely solved the problem. Essentially, they have demobilized Russians psychologically, by maintaining and enforcing a pervasive normality. Thus, Putin himself has focused almost exclusively on domestic issues such as addressing economic problems and supporting artificial intelligence, staging meetings with young scientists and talented children. As a result, during the second year of the war, the general mood of the population has been much better, even despite rumors about another possible military mobilization after the election.

One darker cloud has appeared over the Kremlin, in the form of open disgruntlement from families of the men who were mobilized in October 2022. These families are not seeking money, but they want to bring their sons and husbands home. They sense injustice, given that real criminals and brutal killers, who were pulled out of prison to fight in the war, have to serve for only six months before they can return as heroes, while their own sons have been given no reprieve. The government does not have a convincing answer to this challenge: Putin has long been used to fighting the intelligentsia and the liberal opposition, but here he is dealing with discontent from his own social base. These soldiers’ families have not yet coalesced into a formal movement or taken an explicit antiwar stance — a step that would be impossible because of the high level of repression. But every day these families have become more and more politicized.

For the bulk of the population, however, it is enough for the government to regularly tout the country’s economic health and income growth, and the mere fact that the country is not experiencing economic and social collapse is enough to convey an impression of business as usual. The Kremlin also continually highlights its foreign policy “successes.” In this imaginary world, Russia is supported in its confrontation with the West by the “global majority” in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. They are not just allies but countries for whom Russia is a ray of light in the gloom. It is assumed that anti-Western rhetoric and offers of economic assistance — or, as in the case of Africa, grain — will automatically lead the former satellites of the Soviet Union back to Russia.

Meanwhile, official Russian media reports about military operations tend to emphasize the continual successes of “our guys” at the front. In these sunny accounts, there are no serious losses, only heroic behavior and victories. These briefings have come to resemble Soviet reports on agricultural achievements: the battle for the harvest is going well, and the only possible feeling can be one of satisfaction.

From a Western point of view, these fantasy narratives seem unlikely to convince anyone. Surely, Russians must be sensitive to their growing isolation and economic hardship, and the ever-growing sacrifice of their young men at the front. But the Putin regime is not built upon active support. All it requires is the indifference of the majority, who mostly find it easier to accept the picture of the world that is imposed from above. By embracing the Putin story, they can retain a sense of moral superiority over a West that, they are told, is seeking to dismember their country, just as Napoleon, Hitler, and the “American imperialists” did in past decades.

From month to month, Russian sociologists report broadly the same findings. Attention to events in Ukraine has stagnated; less than half of respondents say they follow the war closely, according to surveys by the independent Levada Center. On average, their support for the military remains high: about 75 percent of respondents say that they support the actions of the armed forces, including 45 percent who express “strong support.” On the other hand, surveys consistently show that slightly more than a half of respondents favor starting peace negotiations than continuing the war. But since the country has made large sacrifices in the fighting, most of those supporting a settlement would like to get something in return: Russia should keep the “new” territories it has conquered or “restored” to Moscow.

BACK IN THE USSR

Having reframed the “special operation” in Ukraine into a multidimensional war against the West, Putin has no particular urgency to talk about an endgame. In this sense, Putin’s goals for the war are no longer limited to returning Ukraine to Russia but now encompass what has become an existential rematch with the West, in which the Ukraine war is a part of a long, historically significant clash of civilizations. Putin sees himself as completing the mission begun by his historic predecessors, who were always forced to fight Western encroachment. In Putin’s new interpretation, even the Tatar-Mongol yoke — the two centuries of Russian subjugation that followed the invasion of Batu Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan, in 1237 — was not as harmful as Western influence and Western attacks. And since this is now an open-ended confrontation, the timeline for “victory” will necessarily extend far beyond the next decade.

Ordinary Russians are receptive to ideas about the country’s historical greatness. As polling data have shown for many years, the main source of popular pride in the state today is the country’s glorious past. Russians have a special regard for their imperial history, especially the history of the Soviet Union, and an idealized image of the Soviet Union as a kingdom of justice has begun to emerge. At the same time, helped by acts of erasure by the Putin regime itself, Stalin’s repressions have receded from view or are sometimes considered as something inevitable and even positive. Among the Soviet achievements most remembered by Russians today, the greatest of all is the Soviet victory in the Great Patriotic War, as Russians refer to World War II.

Accordingly, Putin has continually compared the “special operation” against Ukraine with the war against Nazi Germany. Thus, the celebrated soldiers and generals of the Great Patriotic War are the direct predecessors of today’s military, and by fighting in Putin’s war, Russians can again find redemption in heroic sacrifice.
For example, in a speech before this year’s May 9 Victory Day parade, Putin suggested that the West was trying to reverse Russia’s historic victory. “Their goal,” he said, “is to achieve the collapse and destruction of our country, erase the results of the Second World War.”

PEAK PUTIN?

To make his worldview stick, however, Putin needs a viable economic model to sustain the mythmaking. In recent years, and especially since the start of the war, he has complemented his carefully cultivated distrust of the outside world by rejecting what he calls economic and technological “dependence” on the West. In practice, the Kremlin has been eliminating everything Western not through import substitution — which is impossible in a modern economy — but through a new dependence on China. Meanwhile, technology is becoming both more primitive and more expensive, which naturally puts the burden on the end consumer.

Russia’s oil and gas resources — essential for sustaining the country’s extraordinary military expenditures — remain as important as ever. In a way, ideology is being used to make up for the shortfall in energy revenues, and to compensate for the gradual decline in the quality of life. Of course, the regime going to great lengths to maintain the impression that life goes on as normal, and to a degree, this is true: formally, in 2023, the country’s GDP and real incomes of the population are growing. But this is in large measure because of state injections into sectors serving the war and social payments to its participants. That growth is coming at the expense of the state, and it is unclear how long its resources will last. Risks of fiscal imbalance remain.

Spending more on death means there is less to spend on life.

A larger problem is the lack of an economic vision for the future. As the historian Alexander Etkind notes, “A resource-dependent state is always afraid of the raw materials running out, but the biggest threat of all comes from new technology that makes those materials unnecessary.” Putin has never believed in the energy transition or green economy, but by insisting on preserving Russia’s existing technological structure and petrostate model, his regime has impeded modernization in both a technological and political sense. As a result, the oil and gas economy is not being replaced by a more sustainable model. Notably, some of the countries in the east that are now consuming Russian raw materials may be shifting their energy mix in the future: in time, for example, China may have less demand for Russian energy. But Putin’s autocracy does not care about future generations, much less the environment.

Alongside its dependence on nonrenewable fossil fuels, the Kremlin tends to treat human capital as another expendable commodity. But that does not make the human supply chain any cheaper. On the contrary, it is becoming more expensive: professional soldiers, mercenaries, volunteers, family members of the dead and wounded, and the workers who man Russia’s military-industrial complex (and of which there is currently a grave shortage) must all be paid. Hence, the government has had to reconcile itself to an inexorable growth of wages and social benefits. People’s incomes are growing not because of economic development or advances in the quality of the labor force but simply so the government can sustain hostilities and fuel the continued production of lethal weapons.

For now, the state budget is still balanced, but budget discipline is in a permanent danger because of the state’s chosen priorities. By paying more for defense and security, Russia has fewer resources for people and their health and development. In the Putin economic model, more spending on death means that there is less to spend on life.

SWAN LAKE

So what will Putin’s election campaign look like? Given the current situation, Putin can only offer the public the same model of survival that has become standard since the “special operation” began: to live against the backdrop of war without paying attention to it and wait for “victory” in whatever form the president someday chooses. Again, it is unlikely that that choice will be clearly defined during the election season. The war itself has become a mode of existence for Putin’s system, and there is little reason to expect that it will end any time soon, since that could undercut the urgency of supporting him.

In any case, during periods of peace, Putin’s ratings have often stagnated, whereas they have soared during moments of military “patriotic” hysteria such as the Georgian war of 2008 and the Crimea annexation. The “special operation” has been no exception. Moreover, for now, war fatigue has not yet translated into serious discontent or a decrease in support for the regime. According to the Levada Center, popular support for Putin, as well as for the war and the military, has remained broadly stable, with Putin maintaining around an 80 percent approval rating. In theory, then, the indifference of the pro-war majority suggests that Putin can continue the war for the indefinite future.

The Kremlin’s other option would be to ramp up hostilities, including a new mobilization, whether partial or general, combined with further distancing from the West and more repression at home. But such changes could rock the Kremlin, which at some point risks colliding with an iceberg of extreme public anxiety and a deteriorating economy. Russia’s underlying problems are not going anywhere, and have been slowed down only by the relatively rational actions of the government’s economic managers. Accordingly, maintaining the status quo seems the most likely path forward.

During periods of peace, Putin’s ratings have stagnated.

When Russians go to the polls in March, Putin can count on high voter turnout and continued passive support for the war. Most of them have very low expectations: they have long lived according to the mantra “The main thing is that it shouldn’t get even worse.” But the fresh acclamation of the regime that the election will doubtless bring will not necessarily provide a mandate for truly drastic moves such as the full closure of Russia’s borders or the use of nuclear weapons. Indeed, as the Kremlin must understand, the outcome will be less a mandate for radical new changes than a signal that it can continue much as before.

How long can a country exist in this state of passive and unproductive inertia? Theoretically, Putin could reap advantages by continuing the war but at the same time keeping the population calm, thereby outlasting the West with its supposedly flagging interest. But there are several reasons to question this assumption: first, it is not only Ukraine and the West but also Russia whose resources are being dramatically depleted. Second, surprises are possible, such as the growing wave of discontent among the Russian mobilized soldiers’ families. Even if it does not result in a broader political backlash, the phenomenon has already shown that black swans of different sizes can come from unexpected places at unexpected times.

But where are the redlines that show just how far resources can be depleted and the patience of various sections of the population be tested without triggering a larger collapse? Do these limits even exist in Russia? So far, with a few minor exceptions, everything points to the fact that they do not. Moreover, no matter how much the regime has tightened its grip, change of leadership is not a priority for the Russian public: on the contrary, polls and focus groups show that many people fear a change at the top.

Still, Russians are not ready to die for Putin. In 2018 and 2020, Putin’s ratings fell because of an unpopular decision to increase the retirement age, and then because of the effects of the pandemic; it is possible that his base of support will take other hits in the coming months. Indeed, in the mood of both the public and the elites, there is an invisible yet discernible expectation of such events. For most, however, the yearning is more basic. They desire to end “all this” — meaning get rid of war — as quickly as possible and begin to live better, more safely, and more peacefully. But it is unlikely that this will happen without regime change.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, December 3, 2023 11:19 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nobody is reading or cares about your propaganda, idiot.

The only person who would even care at all is Ted, and that wall of text is about 8 years beyond his reading comprehension level.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, December 3, 2023 6:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SPIDERS IN A JAR (Simplicius the Thinker)

The Zelenskiy/ Zaluzhny fight for survival is on full blast.

According to Simplicius' sources, Zelenskiy's backers (Yermak, Rada deputy Mariana Bezuglaya) have been slagging Zaluzhny for his "failures" on the front.

Meanwhile, Zaluzhny has been objecting publicly to Zelenskiy's rather boneheaded "must defend every millimeter at any cost" which expended a lot of lives and weapons on strategically unimportant places like Bakhmut. Zaluzhny has also refused to participate in Zelenskiy's more harebrained commands. So not only does Zaluzhny have military support, the latest polls say that if Zaluzhny and Zelenskiy were to both run for President, Zelenskiy would lose.

Zelenskiy, seeing his position go up in flames, is trying to retrieve his Presidency by several means:

a) Finally instituting a defensive rather than offensive strategy (what Zaluzhny advocated for a while) and taking the credit

b) Announcing, but not initiating general conscription. The explanation, according to some, is not to increase armed forces until Zaluzhny has been kicked out

c) Thru his party in the Rada, delaying both Parliamentarian and Presidential elections until well after the war is over.

Supposedly, tho, Zaluzhny has the backing of large western firms like Black Rock, big pharma etc. The explanation is to preserve Ukrainian assets as much as possible (for later depredation by transnational finance/ firms) by replacing Zelenskiy and having Zaluzhny negotiate a cease fire.
The replacement regime would be Dmytro Razumkov (acting Pres), Zaluzhny (current Military) and Kitchko (popular former boxer and Mayor of Kiev since 2014).
The go-between for western financial interests, and the coup- in- waiting, and Ukrainian oligarchs is former President Petro Poroshenko, who was stopped at the Ukraine/ Polish border by Zelenskiy's specific order, despite the fact that Poroshenko had a "pass" from the Rada.

Spiders in a jar, indeed!

*****
MORE AT https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/spiders-in-glass-jar-ze-desperatel
y


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, December 4, 2023 6:50 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/04/russian-navy-general-killed-
in-ukraine-governor-says-a83303


A Russian Navy general was killed while on duty in Ukraine, the governor of Russia's southern Voronezh region said Monday, confirming earlier reports of the senior officer's death.

Major General Vladimir Zavadsky died at age 45 “while on combat duty in the special operation zone,” Voronezh Governor Alexander Gusev wrote on the messaging app Telegram, adding that the general served as deputy commander of the Northern Fleet’s 14th Army Corps.

Gusev did not elaborate further on the circumstances of Zavadsky’s death.

But he did note that Zavadsky had until 2021 commanded a Russian tank unit, with which the Voronezh region has “long-standing good relations.”

Unconfirmed reports of Zavadsky’s death first appeared late last month in a closed online chat group for graduates of the military school he attended, according to the BBC’s Russian service.

According to the report, which cited an unidentified graduate’s online communications, Zavadsky was killed by a mine.

BBC Russia said conflicting reports indicated that Zavadsky was either killed in eastern Ukraine's Kharkiv region or southern Ukraine’s Kherson region.

He is at least the seventh Russian general to have been killed in Ukraine since President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to invade the neighboring country in February 2022, according to data collected by the BBC's Russian service and the independent news website Mediazona.

Russian military authorities have not commented on the reported deaths of their senior officers and have not updated the army’s death toll since September 2022.

___________

In stark contrast to the Russian Way of War, in the U.S. every death is counted, year after year:

The central objective of DCAS is to collect and maintain U.S. casualty information on warfighters who have fallen in global or regional conflicts involving the United States. This site is maintained by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC).
https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/app/summaryData/deaths/byYearManner
https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/app/conflictCasualties/ofs/namesOfFalle
n


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, December 4, 2023 11:33 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


General Philip M. Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, chastised Western countries for their inadequate support of Ukraine in combat. He believes that there's a lack of political will to decisively defeat Russia, citing a dearth of advanced equipment, ammunition, and proper support.

Why? Because the consequences of Putin's downfall in Russia are uncertain. Consequently, the current deadlock in the East is viewed as "beneficial and relatively safe" by the West.

https://essanews.com/putin-believed-he-could-act-with-impunity-powerfu
l-remarks-on-the-conflict-in-ukraine,6969737124231297a


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, December 4, 2023 2:15 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russians' support of Ukraine war collapses, finds poll

By Joshua Askew • Updated Dec 04, 2023
https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/02/russians-support-of-ukraine-war-co
llapses-finds-poll


Conducting polls in authoritarian states, like Russia, is notoriously difficult. The Kremlin has criminalised criticism of the war and spends millions on pro-war propaganda, meaning they may not reflect the realities of the situation.

Chronicles, founded by Russian opposition politician Aleksei Miniailo, says its surveys offer an accurate snapshot of public opinion, however.

The Moscow-based research group asked 1,199 adults across Russia a series of questions in a phone poll between 17 and 22 October.

It found the number of core war supporters - those who express "consistent" approval of the war and want the invasion to continue until it has achieved its goals - fell from 22% in February 2023 to 12% in October.

Chronicles' survey revealed that 40% of Russians support the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine without war aims being achieved. This number has remained consistent throughout 2023.

Thirty-three per cent were against exiting Ukraine and wanted the war to continue, though this number has steadily fallen from 47% in February to 39% in July.

One reason why support for the war is falling could be that Russians are increasingly feeling the pinch and seeing a more gloomy future due to the fallout from the invasion, as a separate survey has shown: https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/26/bursts-of-anxiety-impact-of-ukrain
e-war-on-russians-laid-bare-in-poll


Polling by Chronicle echoed this, finding that 44% of respondents have experienced a decrease in family income.

Putin announced a significant increase in military spending this week, with about 30% of the country's budget directed toward the armed forces in 2024.

The survey also showed how the situation was impacting peoples' lives.

More than half of the Russian population (52%) recently faced anxiety or depression, up from around a third (32%) in March 2022.

Those on lower incomes were more likely to report negative mental effects.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, December 4, 2023 9:29 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian Defense Ministry proposes changing medical requirements for military service after Putin orders troop increase

Source: Meduza | 1:59 am, December 4, 2023
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/12/04/russian-defense-ministry-proposes
-changing-medical-fitness-requirements-for-military-service-after-putin-orders-troop-increase


The Russian Defense Ministry has proposed changing its medical fitness requirements for citizens with health issues that “do not have a significant impact” on their ability to perform military service.

Exactly what policies the ministry intends to change is unclear: information about the plan has appeared on the government’s official legal portal, though the proposal itself has not. The published document says only that the changes are aimed at “improving” the health requirments for conscripts, contract soldiers, and draftees.

The initiative comes just days after Vladimir Putin issued an order to increase the size of Russia’s military by 170,000 people. The Defense Ministry said the additional soldiers will consist of “citizens who show a willingness to serve under contract.”

Russia needs cannon fodder, not soldiers. If a Russian will only live a few months in battle, why do they need to be strong, healthy, and competent? Send enough runts, weaklings, and lard buckets to Ukraine and the Ukrainians will run out of ammo and be overwhelmed by Russia's numbers. Then victory is certain! See the tens of millions of Russians who died fighting Germans. That strategy worked in the past and will work again in the present! https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-hccc-worldhistory2/chapter/casu
alties-of-world-war-ii
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, December 4, 2023 9:41 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Meanwhile, Meduza (same source) estimates the total #of Russian soldiers killed at only 37,000 as of last week.

Hardly a figure that matches the idea of a military that runs "meat puppets". Also, Russian lengthy training and weapons-heavy "preparation" of a battlefield (you REALLY should watch Military Summary Channel!) also tells a story of a military that is careful of its soldiers.

In sum: unmitigated bull-twaddle.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, December 5, 2023 8:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Meanwhile, Meduza (same source) estimates the total #of Russian soldiers killed at only 37,000 as of last week.

Hardly a figure that matches the idea of a military that runs "meat puppets". Also, Russian lengthy training and weapons-heavy "preparation" of a battlefield (you REALLY should watch Military Summary Channel!) also tells a story of a military that is careful of its soldiers.

In sum: unmitigated bull-twaddle.

In contrast to Russia, the US military publishes names, dates, and pay grades for every death. Keeping the death toll a secret does not help any side, but it does lead to wasting lives, Signym.
https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/app/summaryData/deaths/byYearManner
https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/app/conflictCasualties/ofs/namesOfFalle
n


Russia unaware of Ukraine war death toll due to military’s ‘culture of dishonest reporting’

Business Insider | Published: 2:22am, 5 Dec, 2023

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3243826/uk
raine-war-russia-unaware-death-toll-due-militarys-culture-dishonest-reporting-uk-intelligence


Russian officials likely don’t know how many of their own soldiers have been killed or injured since the invasion of Ukraine because Russia’s military has a history of dishonesty in reporting those figures, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

The UK MOD said in an intelligence update on Monday that Russia has likely seen up to 350,000 casualties since it launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

But it gave the number as an estimate, as there is no confirmed accurate measure for Russian losses.

Russia likely doesn’t have an accurate count itself, the MOD said.

“Even among Russian officials there is likely a low level of understanding about total casualty figures because of a long-established culture of dishonest reporting within the military,” it said.

The UK ministry broke down Russian casualties into likely numbers of injured and killed between the traditional military and soldiers with the Wagner Group, a mercenary force that played a key role earlier in the war and experienced huge losses.

Russia’s traditional military has likely experienced between 180,000 and 240,000 personnel wounded and about 50,000 killed, the UK MOD said, while the Wagner Group has seen about 40,000 wounded and 20,000 killed, it added.

This would mean about 290,000 to 350,000 total casualties.

That is in line with other estimates: The head of Nato said last week that Russia has had more than 300,000 casualties, but warned that those losses don’t mean it will stop its war efforts.

Ukraine said that, as of Monday, Russia has had more than 332,000 casualties in its invasion.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, December 5, 2023 8:06 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Reality Check for Putin as Russians Get Damn Tired of War

Kremlin propagandists are pushing the idea that the West is tired of this war. That is true but it’s clear Russians are even more sick of it.

By Julia Davis | Dec. 04, 2023 8:01PM EST
https://www.thedailybeast.com/reality-check-for-vladimir-putin-as-russ
ians-get-damn-tired-of-ukraine-war


The wives of those who were mobilized in the beginning of the invasion have recently started to express their outrage with the fact that their husbands are yet to be relieved through rotation. The women authored a petition and disseminated stickers that said, “Bring my husband back. I’m fucking tired of this.” This movement is currently being strangled, with participating military wives being taken in for questioning and threatened with being potentially charged for “discrediting the army.”

Putin’s decree wasn’t meant to address these complaints but merely to fill the gaps created by Russia’s massive casualties, while the true extent of the losses remains taboo within the country. During his Saturday show on Solovyov Live, Mardan did his best to dispel the notion that the new infusion of manpower was meant to replenish the 300,000 dead — a number he also denied.

Instead of acknowledging that multiple countries are preparing to defend themselves from Russian aggression, State Duma member Andrey Gurulyov claimed that aggressors have encircled Russia and plot to attack it. He asserted, “Today, our army should be ready for WWIII.”

Russia’s workforce is also being depleted. Last Tuesday, during the broadcast of the state TV show 60 Minutes, Dmitry Abzalov, Director of the Center for Strategic Communications, noted: “Our main problem, the limiting factor, is the absence of the workforce. Next year, our GDP may decrease because we are shorthanded.” Abzalov hinted that the workers were sent to the frontlines or moved to work in the factories producing weapons, equipment and ammunition for the military.

Host Evgeny Popov pointed out that one of Putin’s recent decrees was meant to address this problem, by simplifying the process of repatriation of Russians currently living in other countries. He added, “This is being done because we don’t have enough people.” State Duma member Leonid Kalashnikov proposed importing workers from North Korea.

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan had an even better idea. Last Sunday, Simonyan appeared on Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov and predicted that Russia’s demographic crisis would be resolved in the not-so-distant future, when desperate Americans will flock to Russia to take up the jobs the locals don’t want.

Russia’s self-imposed turmoil is so unrelenting that Putin’s mouthpieces resort to increasingly ridiculous suggestions and predictions — but even they find it challenging to obscure the grim reality with a cheerful demeanor.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, December 5, 2023 8:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced on December 3 that it won a contract to provide Ukraine with €142 million worth of 155mm artillery rounds.[8]

British outlet The Times highlighted Ukraine's use of British-provided Martlet lightweight missiles to deter large-scale Russian Shahed drone strikes on Kyiv.[9]

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with his Belgian counterpart, Ludivine Dedonder, on December 4 to further develop the bilateral Ukrainian-Belgian relationship, particularly in regard to building out Ukraine's defense industrial base with Belgian support.[10]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-4-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 6:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian State Duma Deputy Mikhail Sheremet stated on December 5 that the Duma will try to adopt a proposed bill that would formally designate the Sea of Azov as an internal water of Russia by the end of 2023.[8]

Russia and Ukraine signed and ratified a treaty in 2003 and 2004 that included stipulations that the Sea of Azov is a historically internal water of both Russia and Ukraine and that vessels flying Ukrainian or Russian flags in the Sea of Azov enjoy freedom of navigation.[9]

The proposed bill likely portends a series of corresponding Russian administrative measures that would require maritime traffic en route to or from ports on the Sea of Azov to formally recognize the sea as a Russian internal body of water and, therefore, to de facto recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-5-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 2:35 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


More hopium and copium from western media.

Meanwhile

Quote:

"Has Kyiv Already Lost?" – Germany's Welt Newspaper Claims Ukraine Is "Crumbling" & That Orbán Was Right But "Nobody Dares Admit It"

Germany’s Welt newspaper, perhaps the most popular publication in the country, is well known for its pro-Ukraine stance and ran numerous articles in the past about the likely success of Ukraine’s military offensive against Russia.

However, in a column published yesterday by the paper’s chief correspondent, Sascha Lehnartz, the assessment of Ukraine’s chances in the war is decidedly bleak.

Entitled “Has Kyiv already lost?” the article describes Ukraine’s military growing increasingly despondent to the point that the country’s commander-in-chief admits there is a “stalemate” at the front.

“Winter is just around the corner. The counteroffensive seems to have failed. The allies are weary. And since the beginning of November at the latest, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has a new opponent who was not necessarily to be expected: his own commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhny,” writes Die Welt.

Welt is referring to a recent interview in the Economist, in which Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, stated that “(a)s in the First World War, we have reached a technical level that puts us in a stalemate situation” and that in order for Ukraine to win, it would take miracle weapons to defeat the Russians, “like Chinese gunpowder.”


MORE AT https://rmx.news/defense/has-kyiv-already-lost-germanys-welt-newspaper
-claims-ukraine-is-crumbling-and-that-orban-was-right-but-nobody-dares-admit-it
/

$60 Billion for Ukraine?
WHY THROW MORE $$$ INTO A MONEY- PIT?

The analysis that makes most sense to me is that (aside from the nut-bag neocons in the USA and Banderites in Ukraine) there were invisible backers of the "Ukraine project". The MICs in NATO nations, of course. The NATO, Brussels and DC bureaucrats who get to "manage" billions in funds. The scammers up and down the line in Ukraine who pilfered money, supplies, and weapons.

More importantly large transnational banks, investment firms, and corporations and their friendly Ukrainian oligarchs: Yermak, Poroshenko, Akhmetov. Alexander Soros. Black Rock. Monsanto ... those who were assured that Ukraine would "win" and Putin would fall, and there would be a bonanza of acquisitions in Ukraine and even Russia.

Seeing their project fail, they want just "one last payday" before they quit.

Spiders in Glass Jar: Ze Desperately Buys Time as Enemies Plot
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/spiders-in-glass-jar-ze-desperatel
y


JUST KEEPING IT REAL, FOLKS.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 7:23 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

JUST KEEPING IT REAL, FOLKS.

Is Vladimir Putin winning? Can't declare a winner because the war has many more years to go.

Analysis of 75 years of data compiled by Uppsala University showed recently that “when interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average”.

A study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, using data from 1946 to 2021 compiled by Uppsala University, found that 26 percent of interstate wars end in less than a month and another 25 percent within a year. But the study also found that “when interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average.” Even those that last fewer than ten years can be exceptionally destructive. The Iran-Iraq war, for example, lasted for nearly eight years, from 1980 to 1988, and resulted in almost half a million combat fatalities and roughly as many wounded.

https://www.csis.org/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 7:36 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

JUST KEEPING IT REAL, FOLKS.

SECOND: Is Vladimir Putin winning? Can't declare a winner because the war has many more years to go.



"The" war? Which war is that?
The war proxy between Ukraine and Russia is coming to a close.
The USA will continue to peck at Russia, China, and Iran for as long as its budget holds out.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 7:55 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

"The" war? Which war is that?
The war proxy between Ukraine and Russia is coming to a close.

Does close mean end in 2023? Or does close mean in 2030? You have been declaring that Russia's victory was close since last year, Signym.

It never stops: Over and over, Russia declares victory in Ukraine.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Russia+declares+victory+in+Ukraine

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 9:17 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I predict it will end in 2024.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 9:43 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I predict it will end in 2024.

Putin's March 2024 reelection campaign should make that a bumper sticker: "Vote Putin for Ukrainian Victory in 2024". If Putin cannot deliver, his 2030 campaign bumper sticker can be almost the same: "Vote Putin for Ukrainian Victory in 2030". I predict Putin will be reelected in 2030 even without a Ukrainian victory.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, December 7, 2023 6:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian society appears interested in discussing the outcome of the war in Ukraine despite the Kremlin’s increasing aversion to more in-depth public discussions of the war. Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center released a poll on December 5 detailing the questions Russians want to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin during the upcoming “Direct Line” forum on December 14. The Levada Center found that 21 percent of all questions in the open-ended poll pertained to the end and outcome of the war in Ukraine.[20]

Levada Center reported that questions in this category included questions about the timeframe for an end to the war, the end of mobilization, and the possibility of peace or a Russian victory.[21] Levada Center noted that the second and third most frequent questions asked, accounting for 8 percent of responses each, pertained to pensions and social programs.[22] The poll indicates that the Russian public continues to have questions about the end and outcome of the war despite the Russian government’s attempts to silence anti-war rhetoric and protests to mobilization.

The Russian public’s continued questions about the timeline for an end to the war and mobilization and the prospects for peace are consistent with recent independent Russian polling indicating that Russians increasingly support a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and showing that over half of Russian respondents believe that Russia should begin peace negotiations with Ukraine.[23]

Putin will reportedly center his presidential campaign on Russia’s alleged domestic stability and increased criticism of the West instead of focusing on the war, so it is unclear if Putin intends to address questions about the war during the “Direct Line” event, which will likely serve as the launch of Putin’s 2024 presidential campaign.[24]

The Kremlin also appears to be increasingly implementing measures to ensure that Putin’s actual electoral success does not depend on battlefield successes and domestic force generation efforts.[25]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-6-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 8, 2023 5:54 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


‘The U.S. May Not Be Coming To Save Us.’ Why, And How, Europe Might Have To Battle Russia By Itself.

By David Axe | Dec 7, 2023, 01:41pm EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/07/the-us-may-not-be-com
ing-to-save-us-why-and-how-europe-might-have-to-battle-russia-by-itself
/

Russia is mobilizing its armed forces, and its economy, for a yearslong war in Ukraine. And if and when it defeats Ukraine, Russia might keep right on attacking — west toward the Baltic States, Poland and other countries along NATO’s frontier.

And the United States, NATO’s most powerful member, might not do anything to stop these cataclysms. “The U.S. may not be coming to save us,” analyst Justin Bronk wrote while announcing his new study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/euro
pe-must-urgently-prepare-deter-russia-without-large-scale-us-support


To prevent authoritarian takeover, and the potential destruction of democracy in Europe, NATO’s other members must immediately ramp up production of munitions and prepare their air forces for the dangerous task of destroying Russian air-defenses.

Right now, the Americans mostly meet these key military needs on behalf of the rest of NATO. But two converging forces — creeping domestic authoritarianism and the looming prospect of war with China — could end American largess.

If China invades Taiwan and the United States intervenes, the Pentagon might need to shift its Europe-based forces to Asia in order to have any chance of winning.

“The maximum period of risk of the Chinese military attempting to blockade or invade Taiwan or key disputed territories in the South or East China Seas is likely to be 2026 to 2028,” Bronk wrote.

By that timeframe, the Chinese military might possess significant aerial and naval advantages over America’s Pacific-based forces. “Very problematic Chinese capabilities will be largely mature and fielded, but many of the U.S. answers” — new stealth fighters and bombers, in particular — “will not be ready yet,” Bronk explained.

“In the event of a dangerous standoff or an actual military conflict in the Indo-Pacific during this period, therefore, the U.S. will be heavily stretched,” Bronk continued.

And if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin can achieve his goal of destroying free Ukraine before any possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, he might choose that moment to continue his assault on democratic Europe. The continent “will be left vulnerable to concurrent military aggression by Russia,” according to Bronk.

Left unsaid in Bronk’s report is that the United States might end military support for its supposed friends and allies even in the absence of a war with China.

Consider that just this week, Republicans in the U.S. Congress voted down military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan because they demanded, as a precondition, that the administration of U.S. president Joe Biden essentially end a decades-old policy that provides asylum for refugees.

Under a Republican administration, America might respond to Chinese and Russian aggression by doing ... nothing. In either case, Europe’s democracies would be on their own.

But they’re not ready to be on their own. Even after 22 months of Russian brutality in Ukraine, NATO’s biggest European members — Poland excepted — haven’t even partially mobilized for collective self-defense.

Germany’s defense spending actually decreased after Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022. Meanwhile, auditors in the United Kingdom have identified a $21-billion shortfall in funding for key U.K. defense programs.

The cheapest way to prevent a wider European war is to help Ukraine to defeat Russia. Again, the Europeans cannot count on the Americans to aid this effort — not as long as the Republican Party shrugs at the twin threats of domestic and foreign authoritarianism.

Europe must be ready to fight alone, either indirectly through Ukraine or directly following Ukraine’s fall. But fighting alone means replacing all those military capabilities the United States currently provides.

“European countries — including the U.K. — must urgently invest in significantly increasing production capacity for the artillery ammunition, spare parts and air-defense missiles required to keep Ukraine in the fight while also refilling their own dangerously depleted stockpiles,” Bronk advised.

And European air forces must train and equip for the complex, dangerous task of suppressing then destroying Russian air-defenses.

After all, Bronk wrote, “the credible capacity to roll back Russian conventional forces in Europe relies on achieving air-superiority, since NATO’s European powers lack the recruitment capacity or funding to field the scale and quality of ground forces and land-based firepower needed to beat Russia without it.”

Europeans and their leaders must understand the peril of this moment in history. War has come to Europe — and it’s increasingly likely to come to Asia, too. It might be possible, by aiding Ukraine in its existential struggle against Russia, to contain war’s spread.

But pretending there is no war is the same as surrendering in advance. Bronk ended his study by quoting Winston Churchill, who in 1936 pleaded with Parliament to rearm the British military for what he correctly understood as an inevitable war with Germany.

“Will there be time to put our defenses in order ... or will the awful words ‘too late’ be recorded?” Churchill intoned.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 8, 2023 4:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It seems NATO, USA neocons, transnational financiers and EU "elites', and Ukraine oligarchs are in the process of thrashing around trying to salvage whatever they can from Project Ukraine, especially since the funding cutoff means an unexpected payday cutoff for everyone up and down the line.

Rumors abound!

An anti-Zelenskiy cabal seems to be shaping up that includes Zaluzhny and Kitchko. It seems that Poroshenko was trying to round up other oligarchs in an effort to "save" whatever assets they have left. (How they thought they would do this is unknown. I think they were planning on another $61 billion so they could "negotiate" with Russia from a stronger position, but that doesn't make any sense.) This faction might represent homegrown Ukrainian elites and nationalists.


There are rumors that Zelenskiy will allow elections but only if Zaluzhny is in jail and unable to run. More rumors say that Zelenskiy won't run, but that Yermak, Zelenskiy's producer and deal-maker with Alex Soros (and likely other transnational financiers) is slated to "win" the election. So this faction probably represents Soros, Monsanto, BkackRock, and other transnationals who expected a big payday and profitable acquisitions in Ukraine.

The EU elite, NATO elite, and USA neocons are still huffing and puffing: Ukraine in NATO (Stoltenberg), Ukraine in EU (van der Crazy), USA direct intervention in Europe (and maybe Ukraine, Kirby), and other meaningless butt hurt statements. In response to Kirby's statement, Maria Zakharova (Foreign Ministry spox) said that if F16s were flying over Ukraine Russia would shoot them down as enemy aircraft, even if they were launched from NATO nations. (She left ambiguous whether Russia would strike foreign airbases.)

Who represents the MIC? Who represents the IMF? Who represents the BIS, and the central banks?

More importantly, since the big financial interests were expecting a big payday FROM RUSSIA (much, MUCH bigger than Ukraine) for their continued profit, who are they going to prey on now? Africa, China, parts of S America, and the Mideast are becoming resistant to western financial pressure, sanctions, and military threats.

Gullible leaders like Armenia's Pashinyan and Argentina's Milei are mere morsels for the maw that it international finance. Who's next? The EU people? Americans?



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 9, 2023 7:47 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Yesterday's News: Putin Reelection Will Be Landslide!
(Also, Russia threatened to nuke the West, but that’s not news.)

On December 8th, Putin quietly announced his presidential campaign after Artem Zhoga, commander of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Sparta” Battalion, claimed that the people of Donbas want him to run in the elections.[2]

Zhoga specifically emphasized that Russia needs Putin as president to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories and restore peace. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Putin’s announcement was “completely spontaneous” and was “a reaction to people’s appeal.”[3]

Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky responded to Putin’s announcement, claiming that although the results of the elections are already known, the “process needs to be arranged appropriately.”[6]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-8-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 9, 2023 7:48 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia-Ukraine War: The Shortest Path to Victory Goes Through Crimea

By Luke Coffey, Peter Rough | December 8, 2023, 5:06 AM

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/08/ukraine-russia-war-aid-congress-b
iden-victory-counteroffensive-crimea
/

A successful U.S. strategy for the war in Ukraine should begin by recognizing that Moscow is uninterested in any genuine cessation of hostilities. We already know that Putin views cease-fires as instruments of war. From 2014 to 2022, as Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has pointed out, Russia agreed to 20 cease-fires in Ukraine — and promptly violated every one of them. Putin may float another such deal in the coming months, but it would only serve one purpose: to give his forces a respite before resuming hostilities.

Without the liberation of Crimea, Ukraine will never be safe. The occupied territory is the key staging ground and resupply base for Russian operations in southern Ukraine. As a first step, Ukraine must deny Russia the freedom to operate from Crimea.

That’s why Kyiv’s forces have repeatedly targeted Russia’s highest-value asset there: the Kerch Bridge, which serves as the essential transportation link connecting the Russian mainland to the peninsula. Twice, Ukraine has successfully hit the bridge. In October 2022, an explosion collapsed a portion of its westbound vehicle section and damaged a parallel rail line. In July 2023, a second Ukrainian strike temporarily destroyed another section of the bridge, limiting its operations for some time.

Ukraine has also repeatedly struck Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including its headquarters in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol. Over the past 20 months, Ukraine has damaged or destroyed at least 19 Russian vessels and struck military facilities on the peninsula with missiles, including Russian air bases and air defense systems. As a result, the Russian Navy has essentially been driven out of the western Black Sea.

Ukraine has the political will and creativity to launch a major campaign against Crimea, but it is up to the United States to ensure it succeeds. While the details should, of course, be left to Ukrainian military planners, a Crimea campaign would likely consist of three phases.

The first phase would be to isolate the peninsula. To that end, the West should prioritize arming Ukraine with the weapons that it needs to destroy, or at least incapacitate, the Kerch Bridge. Rendering the only direct connection between Russia and Crimea inoperable would put enormous pressure on Russia’s other route to Crimea, which runs through the so-called land bridge — the long stretch of occupied Ukraine along the Black Sea coast.

That means Washington should also assist Ukraine in targeting key transit nodes along that route, including the Henichesk, Syvash, and Chonhar bridges that connect occupied Crimea to Kherson Oblast. Ukraine needs to be able to put constant pressure on these targets and stay one step ahead of Russian engineering units.

The second phase of a Crimea campaign involves making the peninsula’s naval and air bases unusable for Russian forces. This requires urgent and plentiful deliveries of ATACMS, including variants with a unitary warhead and 190-mile range. With pressure from Washington, Berlin can be persuaded to also supply the German-made Taurus, a powerful air-launched cruise missile with a range of about 300 miles.

So far, Ukraine has had some success striking Russian ships, air defense batteries, electronic warfare platforms, airfields, and headquarters in Crimea using repurposed Soviet-era S-200 air defense missiles, as well as British Storm Shadow and French SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles. The S-200s, however, are less precise than more modern systems, and the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles, like the Taurus, must be air-launched, limiting their use so long as Ukraine does not control the skies.

What’s more, Britain, France, and Germany only have small stocks of these weapons. This is why providing ATACMS — which exist in large numbers — is so important.

The third phase of a Crimea campaign consists of striking key facilities inside the Russian Federation. Russian forces pushed out of Crimea must be denied safe haven on the other side of the border, where they would otherwise regroup to launch their next attack. The United States has restricted the use of U.S.-supplied weapons to targets in occupied Ukraine; instead, Washington should assist Kyiv in developing and manufacturing its own capabilities to strike Russian naval and air bases in Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and other regions of Russia located across the sea from Crimea or bordering occupied Ukraine.

Ukraine has already launched minor successful attacks against Russian bases, ports, airfields, and headquarters in these nearby regions, including Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Temryuk, and Taganrog. These attacks should be supported and encouraged. Russia also continues the unfettered movement of Iranian military supplies and smaller Russian naval vessels from the Caspian Sea to the Sea of Azov through the Volga-Don Canal. This makes the canal fair game as a target.

Similarly, if claims that Russia is establishing a new naval base in Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied region of Georgia, are accurate, this facility would also be a legitimate target. Why should we require Ukraine not to hit the Russian military bases from which Ukraine is being relentlessly pummeled?

U.S. policymakers should recognize that the shortest and most direct path to victory for Ukraine runs through Crimea. Ukraine must be armed, trained, and equipped with the campaign for the peninsula in mind. Just as Russia’s war on Ukraine began with the invasion of Crimea in 2014, so too will it only end when Ukraine eventually regains control there.

For Washington, a clear eye on the campaign for Crimea is an antidote to doom and gloom. By adjusting its strategy, the West can help Ukraine make crucial progress, weaken Russia in the Black Sea, and chart a path to ending this long and bloody war.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

YOUR OPTIONS

NEW POSTS TODAY

USERPOST DATE
SECOND 10.31 08:05
THG 10.31 13:46

OTHER TOPICS

DISCUSSIONS
How do you like my garbage truck?
Thu, October 31, 2024 18:49 - 2 posts
A.I Artificial Intelligence AI
Thu, October 31, 2024 18:47 - 236 posts
Kamala Harris for President
Thu, October 31, 2024 18:10 - 590 posts
Trump on Joe Rogan: Full Podcast
Thu, October 31, 2024 18:05 - 7 posts
Israeli War
Thu, October 31, 2024 18:04 - 62 posts
In the garden, and RAIN!!! (2)
Thu, October 31, 2024 17:58 - 4657 posts
Elections; 2024
Thu, October 31, 2024 17:45 - 4425 posts
Spooky Music Weird Horror Songs...Tis ...the Season...... to be---CREEPY !
Thu, October 31, 2024 16:19 - 56 posts
Sentencing Thread
Thu, October 31, 2024 15:11 - 381 posts
human actions, global climate change, global human solutions
Thu, October 31, 2024 14:25 - 921 posts
Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
Thu, October 31, 2024 13:46 - 7408 posts
No matter what happens...
Wed, October 30, 2024 23:43 - 21 posts

FFF.NET SOCIAL