REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, July 2, 2026 16:56
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Monday, June 29, 2026 6:05 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukrainian defence ministry adviser names Ukraine's main technological problems in war

By Iryna Levytska | 29 June, 11:02

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/29/8041560/

Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister, said that alongside positive news from the war, Ukraine faces a number of technological problems and named the main ones.

Source: Flash on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=27283162834658742&id
=100001751811701&mibextid=wwXIfr&rdid=EygELGMVL6XcUXFm#
Quote:
I will try to name the main ones:
1. We do not have a serial and mass solution against KABs. It is KABs that cause us many problems on the fronts.
2. The enemy is increasing the use of MES modems for reconnaissance and online strikes with Shahed and Gerber. We are making unacceptably slow progress in developing electronic warfare means against MES.
3. There is a huge problem with drone attacks on front-line areas. And not only villages are suffering, but also Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Sumy. Warning systems and systematic actions are needed to combat drones.
4. I would like to have even more tactical radars so that the precise radar field is denser and larger. Without this, interceptors do not work.
5. We do not yet have our own ballistics. And it would radically change the course of the war.
6. There are no mass and mass solutions for electronic warfare on drone video channels. The enemy is ahead of us here both in development and in experience of application. It is such electronic warfare that would help us protect front-line zones from drones.
7. There are no proven solutions for protecting mid-range strikes and bombers from enemy anti-aircraft drones. If we do not create them, it will soon become very difficult to work.
8. There is no systematic technological approach to finding and destroying enemy tactical radars. And these are the enemy's front-line eyes in the sky.
9. Developments and solutions are needed in the field of alternative navigation for deep strikes.

This is what I can voice publicly.
Details: Among the key problems, Flash identified the absence of a serial and mass-production solution for countering guided aerial bombs.

"It is precisely the guided aerial bombs that are causing us many problems on the fronts," he noted.

He also said that Russian forces are increasing their use of Mesh modems for reconnaissance and strikes with Shahed and Gerber-type drones, while Ukraine is, in his opinion, unacceptably slow in developing electronic warfare countermeasures against this technology.

Flash also drew attention to the large-scale problem of drone attacks on frontline territories.

"It is not only villages that are suffering, but also Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy. Alert systems and systematic action against drones are needed," Flash added.

He separately stressed the need to increase the number of tactical radar stations, since without a denser radar coverage, interceptor drones cannot operate effectively.

He also noted that Ukraine does not yet have its own ballistic missile, which in his view could radically change the course of the war.

Among other problems, the expert identified the absence of mass and serial electronic warfare systems against drone video channels, in the development and use of which, in his assessment, the Russians are ahead of Ukraine.

"Precisely this kind of electronic warfare would help us protect frontline zones from drones," Flash stressed.

He also said there is an absence of proven solutions for protecting medium-range and heavy strike UAVs from anti-drone interceptors.

"If we do not create them, working conditions will become very difficult very soon," Beskrestnov said.

Flash is convinced Ukraine also lacks a systematic technological approach to locating and destroying the Russians' tactical radar stations, which he called "the enemy's eyes in the sky at the front". He also noted the need for developments and solutions in the field of alternative navigation for long-range strike drones (deep strike).

Background:

• Flash previously reported that the Russian army is using the compact MSL 20045 radar station at the front, capable of detecting FPV drones at a distance of around eight kilometres.

• He also said that Russian Shahed and Gerbera-type drones with Mesh modems are reaching ever deeper into Ukraine's rear and that electronic warfare systems are not always effective against them.

• In February, a Russian FPV drone guided by a fibre-optic cable reached the northern outskirts of Kharkiv.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, June 29, 2026 8:18 PM

THG

Is also JJ. Keep it real please, and use a VPN


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Something you will never, ever see from western press


-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger



You won't see it in the western press because it isn't real. You were conned by Trump. You even got to study him for years, yet you still fall for his con. You have no idea what's real. You completely lack any sound judgement skills. Watch this video. It is real.

T

Russia Uncensored





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Monday, June 29, 2026 8:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


OOOOOOOHHHHHHH.... look at that flabby sack of shit trying to look tough with those flabby slabs of shit crossed over his man boobs.



--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 7:22 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


With America in Retreat, Europe Now Depends on Ukraine

Europeans are gaming out their future defense, and it’s unthinkable without Kyiv.

June 29, 2026, 10:11 AM

By Liana Fix, a senior Europe fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Paul B. Stares, a senior fellow for conflict prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/29/europe-nato-war-russia-ukraine-se
curity-defense-trump-alliance-deterrence/

Europe is preparing for its future security with little or no help from the United States. And in many such scenarios that European planners are now gaming out, Ukraine emerges as the linchpin of the continent’s defense. The weaker Washington’s security guarantee becomes, the more Europe needs Kyiv. Soon, Europeans will have to confront an entirely new burden-sharing question: What must they offer Ukraine for its help shielding Europe from Russia?

Until recently, European leaders could barely disguise their dread at the prospect of another acrimonious NATO summit, set to take place in Ankara in early July. The wounds are still raw from recent trans-Atlantic fights—including over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, his attempts to coerce Denmark to hand over Greenland, and recent U.S. troops withdrawals from Europe. Trump’s war against Iran and his accusations that European allies were insufficiently supportive of their principal security guarantor added to these wounds. This month, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ominously warned: “I think the next meeting of NATO … is probably the most important meeting in NATO’s history because there are some things here that need to be cleared up and fixed.”

Concerns about a fracas at next month’s summit have subsided somewhat. The apparent U.S.-Iran cease-fire deal, the announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Europe’s offer to help police the strait once a final peace agreement is reached have lowered the temperature. The friendly tone of this month’s G-7 summit in France, where Trump seemed on his best behavior, was another welcome sign. Cue the longtime trans-Atlanticists, who will surely argue that this proves the enduring resilience of the U.S.-Europe partnership—and that another near-death experience for NATO has been averted.

Such thinking, however, misses how rapidly European views of the trans-Atlantic alliance are changing. To the continent’s policymakers, NATO resembles Schrödinger’s fabled cat—simultaneously alive and dead. They treat the alliance as alive in the sense that they still do and say all the things they did before to demonstrate that they believe in its existence, not least to deter Moscow. But they also view it as dead in the sense that they can no longer rely on Washington as before.

European leaders are making plans to secure their continent without U.S. help. They no longer take seriously the assurance from Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. permanent representative to NATO, that a U.S. drawdown will leave no “strategic gaps.” They have given up on the idea that the Trump administration will agree to a road map for handing off Europe’s conventional defense in a predictable, coordinated way. So they are improvising. At the European Union level, officials are war-gaming how Article 42.7—the bloc’s closest equivalent to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause—might be invoked if NATO is paralyzed. Leaders are asking what happens if NATO’s command-and-control structure simply isn’t there. Paris and Berlin have set up a nuclear steering group to discuss the possible role of the French nuclear arsenal in Europewide deterrence.

What stands out across many of these planning exercises is Ukraine’s role at the center of European security. Bolstering Europe’s own defense and deterrence as Washington’s commitment wanes will take many years. In a scenario exercise that the Council on Foreign Relations recently held with European officials and experts (which we both designed and in which one of us participated), it became readily apparent that Ukraine is the bulwark for Europe’s defense at a time of U.S. retreat.

In our exercise, set in 2029, the starting point for participants was a brittle cease-fire in Ukraine and an isolationist U.S. government seeking normalization with Russia while further pulling away from NATO, including by withdrawing the U.S. supreme allied commander from the bloc’s Belgian headquarters. Convinced that the United States will not come to help, Russia senses an opening and progressively escalates against Europe: first, by demanding negotiations on the basis of the Kremlin’s December 2021 treaty drafts (which, among other things, called for NATO to effectively withdraw from 14 countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans) and then by escalating with conventional attacks and nuclear threats. In our exercise, the United States would stay detached and demand that Europe negotiate with Russia.

European participants had to decide how to react to U.S. passivity and Russia’s escalating attacks. Some Europeans initially tried to keep Washington on their side and continued to engage as they deliberated their response. British and French participants took the lead, while some Europeans were cautious and fearful of escalation with Russia without the United States by their side. Predictably, judging whether the escalation of Russian aggression reached the threshold to invoke NATO’s Article 5 was another source of contention among the more than 10 European NATO countries represented in the exercise.

Managing and coordinating an escalation ladder that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons without the United States was a huge challenge. As Washington was obstructing NATO involvement, European participants mostly chose coalitions of the willing as the format of coordination. They did not see the EU as a relevant mechanism in a fast-moving security crisis. However, their ad hoc coalitions had no decision-making structures in place, which could obstruct or slow down the European response in an actual crisis.

Participants were unified in rejecting Russian negotiation offers as lacking credibility and good faith. Although they agreed on the need for military-to-military contacts to avoid unintended escalation, any negotiation with Russia on the basis of its 2021 demands had little appeal for European participants, even as Washington nudged them to negotiate. A key Kremlin demand—stopping all support for Ukraine and leaving it to Russia’s control—was not even considered during the exercise. It was clear to participants that if Ukraine fell, Europe would be next. Many participants were hopeful that China could put a stop to Russian nuclear blackmailing.

As the scenario developed and the Europeans developed their responses, they relied heavily on Ukraine as a launchpad for offensive counteractions in response to Russian attacks on NATO territory, potentially including a reopening of the front in Ukraine. In the exercise, the Ukrainian side suggested that their forces could also play a role in defending Europe’s eastern flank.

The exercise demonstrated that Ukraine plays a crucial role in Europe’s future security with less U.S. support. In peacetime before any future crisis, Ukraine can pin down Russian forces and buy time for Europe to rebuild its own capabilities. The integration of Ukraine’s defense industry with its European counterparts is critical for Europe’s future defense. In case of war, Ukraine fields the most powerful conventional land army in Europe, hardened by years of high-intensity combat. Its drone, air defense, and artificial intelligence capabilities are battle-proven in a way no European arsenal can claim.

Already in the current war, the balance of burden and benefit is shifting. It is still Europe that is keeping Ukraine in the fight. Europeans are largely filling the gap left by Washington’s stoppage of almost all military aid, either supplying weapons themselves or buying them from the United States, including the air defense interceptors that have grown scarce since the Iran war began. From January to April, European countries committed roughly 2 billion euros per month in new military support for Ukraine on top of the 90 billion euro financial lifeline they have provided to Ukraine.

Increasingly, however, defense support is a two-way street. Drone technology—including rapidly expanding joint production inside and outside Ukraine—is moving to the center of Europe’s military relationship with Kyiv. Europe’s drone-related funds for Ukraine have quadrupled from 400 million euros in 2022 to 1.6 billion euros in just the first four months of this year. This, of course, helps Ukraine but is also very much in Europe’s self-interest. Since the Russian drone incursion into Poland last September and the weak U.S. response to it, Europeans feel more exposed than ever. The further the United States pulls back from Europe, the more the importance of Ukraine not just for drone technology but as a conventional security provider comes into sight.

There was a time when some Europeans regarded Ukraine’s war effort with condescension and saw Europe’s help as charity, even as they admired the improvised but powerful means by which Ukraine held off the Russian war machine. Armin Papperger, CEO of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, not so long ago dismissed Ukrainian drone defense as “play[ing] with Legos”—somehow not comparable to the high-end technology of the Western defense industry.

European military planners know better than to be that arrogant. They understand that Ukraine is holding the line for them—and that an end to the current war would free up Russian troops to threaten NATO’s eastern flank. The Europeans know that their own armies could not endure even a few weeks of the attritional drone warfare that Ukrainian soldiers engage in daily. Meanwhile, the credibility of NATO’s conventional deterrent erodes with every Pentagon announcement of another reduction of U.S. forces and capabilities available to respond in a European crisis. All of this increases the temptation in Moscow to test the alliance.

Europe’s weak position increases Ukraine’s value. The more the United States retreats, the more Europe needs Ukraine, and the more justified Ukraine’s demand for something in return, such as full EU accession, becomes. Ukraine is well aware of its newfound value; at this month’s G-7 summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted on fast-tracked EU membership for his country: “Not all the leaders love such a format—fast track—because they want very understandable, clear steps for everybody. But we are not everybody, with all respect. … We are [at] war, and we need more creative steps.”

In time, even NATO membership for Ukraine comes into view, should the alliance become a European-led one with no role for the United States or less of one. Ukraine still lacks the nuclear, air, and naval power of France and Britain. But in the fight against Russia, no European state is as strong. As our scenario exercises have shown, there is no imaginable future defense architecture for Europe without the United States in which Ukraine is not a key element.

With NATO as we know it in limbo, the urgent task is to accelerate Ukraine’s integration into European defense, whether formally through the EU or as part of a coalition of the willing. The burden-sharing conversation Europe needs to have is not the familiar one about the cost of supporting Kyiv. It is about the burden Ukraine already carries not only to defend its own territory but also to shield a continent that is still far from ready for the day when the United States walks away. European leaders should start asking what they can offer Ukraine—not what Ukraine owes them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 7:40 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Great Debate Is Between The Wrong Choices
This Is The Debate We Should Be Having

Phillips P. OBrien
Jun 30, 2026

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-great-debate-is-between-the
-wrong

Sometimes debates rumble on not because of their strong intellectual merits, but because of history, bureaucratic inertia, or simply innate conservatism (not an atypical phenomenon in militaries, it must be said). One of my favorite historical examples of such a debate was the obstinate refusal of some officers in both US and British cavalry units during the interwar period to give up their horses for combat roles. They came up with a host of what seemed to be semi-plausible arguments to justify their emotional and bureaucratic preferences.

Well, It Seemed A Rational Debate For The Time

Some claimed that vehicles would never be able to handle the varied terrain that horses could master, and therefore it was imperative to keep the man in the saddle. Other arguments were that vehicle technology still had a long way to go to mature, and in the meantime, it would be a shame to give up on horses who were tried and true. One of the favorite arguments of the horse backers was to claim that these new-fangled mechanized technologies were simply not mature enough yet, and in the meantime, it was important to prevent some “sheep-like rush to mechanization.”

These arguments effectively delayed the transition of some cavalry units to mechanized status for decades—until after World War II started in some cases.

And then, lo and behold, the horse appeared in combat next to the tank, and the whole debate was revealed as the farce that it was.

It is also worth noting that in the end, it was the most obstinate defenders of the old order that lost out. Many of those fine cavalry officers who clung to their horses in the 1920s and 1930s ended up being useless at the start of the war and had to beg and borrow their way into mechanized units to see the action that they so desperately craved.

The current debate over whether the future (present actually) belongs to human-controlled or remotely/artificially controlled combat vehicles on land, air and sea is much like the debate between cavalry and mechanization in the interwar period. It is ongoing, intense, and its result will make a big difference in the shape of future militaries for years, if not decades.

But it is also partly ridiculous.

Now let me declare an interest. I have, for many years, since before the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, argued that large, expensive, manned weapons were on their way out. They seemed to me far too difficult to defend, actually limited in their capabilities, and wildly expensive. In other words, we were spending massive amounts of money to make systems less effective.

In the Spring of 2022, I imagined an impending future where smaller, cheaper defensive weapons would have the “computational performance” to push all these legacy systems towards obsolescence. Here was a quote from one piece which discussed this (I clearly did not anticipate at that point that everyone would soon opt to call these AI/Autonomous systems, but the point was the same).

Drones will be able to stay in the air for longer and avoid detection better, while increasing their lethality and improving their own computational performance. The ability of both to destroy heavy land vehicles while remaining unseen will improve. The massacre of Russian vehicles we have seen in Ukraine will become the norm, not the exception.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 9:02 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2026

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-june-29-2026/

Russian President Vladimir Putin is carefully constructing a reality that seeks to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as inevitable while downplaying the growing domestic economic costs of the war. This constructed reality is premised on a rejection of the tactical and operational developments that have characterized 2026 thus far and a continued Russian commitment to its untenable maximalist battlefield objectives. Putin’s control over the information space and his ability to shape and propagate narratives of Russian military success are critical to maintaining this false reality.

Putin appears to have accepted the reality that the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska Summit did not result in tangible or actionable diplomatic agreements. Putin stated to Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin in a likely carefully staged interview on June 28 that Russia and the United States did not reach any agreements at the Alaska Summit.[1] Putin acknowledged that there were no signed documents outlining the “spirit of Anchorage” but claimed that Russia agreed during the summit to US proposals about ending the war in Ukraine. Putin stated that Russia is ready to continue negotiations with the United States based on the Alaska Summit. The Kremlin readout of Putin’s interview omitted his statements about the Alaska Summit, but Zarubin posted a video of the full interview that retained those details.[2] Putin’s June 28 statement follows a similar remark from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on June 25 that there was only a “proposal” at the summit but no official or signed written agreement.[3] Putin is likely acknowledging lack of agreements in order to avoid directly confronting the Trump administration about what happened in Anchorage, given Rubio’s statements confirming the absence of a written agreement. Putin’s stated readiness to return to the Alaska Summit proposals, however, aims to push the United States to resume negotiations as if the battlefield situation has not changed since August 2025. Ukraine has since liberated territory on the frontline and significantly slowed Russian advances, while engaging in successful intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns against Russia — forcing Russia into a much more defensive mode of operation than it was in as of August 2025.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 11:14 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The Wheels Are Coming Off Putin’s War

Fuel shortages, military unrest, and a strangled Crimea while the Kremlin dictator’s attempts to project confidence do nothing of the sort.

Cathy Young
Jun 30, 2026

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-wheels-are-coming-off-putin-ukrain-wa
r-crimea

A FEW YEARS AGO, when there was still some leeway for acts of public dissent in Russia, some protesters against the Kremlin’s imperialist policy toward Ukraine carried signs that flipped the patriotic slogan Krym nash, “Crimea is ours,” into Nam krysh—a humorous abbreviation of the slang phrase meaning “We’re done for.” [The literal meaning of the full phrase nam krysha is, “It’s the roof for us.”] Today, nam krysh seems prophetic: The occupied peninsula that became the (stolen) jewel in Putin’s crown in 2014 finds itself under a Ukrainian blockade that has all but cut it off from the Russian mainland—and, since Friday, under a state of emergency.

Starting in May, the vaunted “land bridge” by which Russia supplied occupied Crimea, the Novorossiya highway, turned into a death trap for trucks due to unrelenting Ukrainian drone attacks. Since then, other strikes have targeted bridges and taken out ferry operations. Severe fuel shortages are the blockade’s tangible result. Sergey Aksyonov, the Kremlin-installed governor of Crimea, recently announced a complete halt to gas sales to individual car owners; fuel is reserved for public transit and official vehicles. Power outages have become widespread; the latest reports show that food shortages are already starting. The Crimea vacation long coveted by Russians has become a nightmare. Recent data from travel websites show that nearly 80 percent of hotel bookings on the peninsula have been canceled. While a few brave or stupid souls are still heading to Crimea, far more people are getting out. Thousands of cars have been lining up at the Crimean Bridge (a.k.a. the Kerch Strait Bridge, famously attacked multiple times by Ukraine) in the direction of the mainland, with hardly any traffic the other way.

The Ukrainian effort to turn the Crimean peninsula into “an island,” in the words of Ukrainian defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov, has marked a new chapter in the war, in both symbolic and practical ways. Russia’s Krym nash moment—the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, immediately followed by the Russian incursion into the Donbas—was the beginning of Putin’s proposed reconquista of Ukraine. Moreover, the Crimea grab was almost universally seen as de facto irreversible even by those who were optimistic about the prospect for Ukraine to recapture its other occupied lands. Today, while no one believes Ukraine could recapture the peninsula soon, the occupation powers are beleaguered.

In his televised address last Wednesday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said that the actions taken to isolate Crimea were part of a “carefully calculated operation” intended, with help from Ukraine’s Western allies, to “force Russia to choose peace.” Some Russian propagandists saw this statement as a signal that Ukraine was preparing an actual military operation to recapture Crimea. That seems doubtful: Such an operation would be extremely costly at a time when Ukraine still faces significant manpower shortages on the frontlines. One possibility, however, is that if supply lines are cut off, the Russian military contingent on the peninsula may be forced to evacuate—opening the way to an unresisted Ukrainian capture that would, in effect, be a reversal of Russia’s bloodless seizure of Crimea in 2014. (As the saying goes, history does not repeat itself but it often rhymes.)

What’s not in doubt is that Ukraine has succeeded in turning Crimea from Russia’s prize into a liability. And it’s part of a larger Ukrainian strategy: The next day, on Thursday, Zelensky announced that he had approved a forty-day “operation of influence” against Russia, coordinated with Ukrainian intelligence and intended to force Moscow to end the war.

A creeping sense of nam krysh is spreading far beyond Crimea. The recent Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries in Moscow, which produced apocalyptic images of plumes of smoke and flames rising over the city and shut down a key gasoline-producing facility for at least the next six months, became a rude wakeup call for many Muscovites who have clung to the belief that the war won’t come near them except on television. (And it keeps coming near: Thursday, a missile alert was issued in the Moscow region, with residents advised to shelter indoors.) What’s more, it’s not just in Crimea that Ukrainian strikes against the Russian oil industry are causing a fuel crisis. As of June 24, reports Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe, 55 of Russia’s 83 regions had either government-imposed restrictions on gasoline and diesel fuel sales or caps imposed by private companies. Shortages have also been observed in nearly all remaining regions. Some commentators have recalled the late John McCain’s 2014 comment that Russia is “a gas station masquerading as a country”—which greatly offended Russian patriots at the time—and acidly noted that the gas station has run out of gas. At this point, it’s bidding to buy gasoline from Kazakhstan—and getting turned down.

Video clips in which Russian motorists report shut-down gas stations and multi-mile-long lines at the few that remain open are proliferating faster than Russian propaganda can churn out talking points about hysteria and hype. “I don’t want to start trouble, especially here on my page, but I’m afraid that we’re in for hard times, lean times. God forbid, of course, but these are hard times,” says one man in such a video, waiting in line for forty minutes after making the rounds of six other stations. In another clip, a man curses about thieves siphoning off gas from his tank a day after he filled up. Meanwhile, a woman who seems sincerely perplexed inquires, “Hey guys, what’s going on with the gas stations? I don’t watch the news. Where are people filling up? What’s happening? The lines everywhere are a kilometer long.”

Here’s a tip for you, lady: Find a news source outside the Kremlin propaganda machine.

MEANWHILE, RUSSIAN FORCES remain mostly stuck on the frontlines, even if Putin keeps telling audiences that the war is going well and that “our boys are pounding them every blessed day.” Yes, the Russians may succeed in taking the city of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region after an eight-month siege, which could potentially clear the way toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk (though any Russian attacks on those cities would run into heavy fortifications). But Ukrainians have their own battlefield successes, such as forcing Russian troops off the Black Sea’s Kinburn Spit peninsula, an important foothold for control over critical waterways. And right now, Ukrainian strikes inside Russia—not only on oil facilities but on military targets such as munitions factories—are creating a powerful sense of Ukrainian momentum. It’s not just drones, either: Ukraine’s new long-range Flamingo missiles, introduced last fall and touted as an alternative to the American Tomahawks, have just taken out a key military-industrial site in Volgograd that manufactured everything from artillery systems to ballistic and nuclear missiles launchers.

There are also growing signs of discontent in the Russian military. On June 25, two days after the third anniversary of mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny, a blogger and Ukraine war veteran named Aleksandr Lunin posted an angry, expletive-laden Instagram video describing horrific abuses endured by Russian soldiers on the frontlines: extortion by commanding officers, sadistic punishments, de facto murder by suicide missions. That in itself is nothing new, but Lunin, who claimed to be speaking on behalf of unnamed military and security officials, also demanded a televised meeting with Putin in which he could tell the country about the reality of what was happening in Ukraine. And he warned that if such a meeting was not granted, “the army will turn its weapons against the Kremlin.” The video had 11 million views in the first twenty-four hours and got hundreds of thousands of likes.

The next day, Lunin (whose identity has been confirmed) backtracked a little, claiming that his statement had been misunderstood as a threat of mutiny and appearing to withdraw his demand for a meeting—which, evidently, has not saved him from arrest. But, despite the internet crackdown, or perhaps because of it, the video has gone viral on Russian social networks.

Other viral videos appear to show forcible conscription raids in which men are grabbed in the streets, beaten, and coerced into signing army contracts. With a severe shortfall of volunteers, there is also talk of a new round of mobilization in the fall, a move Putin has resisted ever since the partial mobilization in the fall of 2022 led to a tangible rise in discontent.

It’s hard to get an accurate measure of popular sentiment about the war in Russia, given that people have gone to prison for liking posts critical of the war and that people in a fear-based society are prone to be skittish even in anonymous polls. As Israel-based dissident video blogger Maxim Katz has quipped, most Russians, asked what they think of Putin or the war, hear the question as, “Are you overjoyed about everything that’s happening, or do you want to get eight years in the slammer?” Nonetheless, the polls, such as they are, do show growing levels of war fatigue. Independent Russian journalist Farida Rustamova reports that internal polling conducted by the United Russia party in May showed over 60 percent saying they wanted to war to end in one way or another. Open polls, too, show growing support for a peace agreement—though with such caveats as Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty over captured territories. (Again, it’s hard to say to what extent such answers are chosen as politically acceptable.) In United Russia’s closed focus groups, Rustamova’s sources told her, many people expressed readiness to accept an end to the war—even what of those sources euphemistically put it a “non-victorious outcome.”

And, even in official polls, the ratings for Putin’s ruling United Russia party (currently with around 33 percent approval) have dropped so low that the Kremlin’s siloviki—top military and security officials—have been reportedly pushing Putin to cancel or postpone September’s elections for the Duma. Apparently, there are fears that the anti-United Russia landslide could become (with apologies for quoting Donald Trump) too big to rig.

A MEASURE OF RUSSIA’S FLOUNDERING fortunes in Ukraine can also be seen, perhaps, in international support. Donald Trump is currently in “Ukraine is fighting well” mode, while Marco Rubio says that no U.S.-Russia agreements were made in Anchorage last year. Also, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, waived during the war in Iran, appear to have been restored. Of course, everything could change the next time Trump has another chat with Putin, or for any other reason; but it’s worth noting that over in the Kremlin, at least, they seem to be in genuine Et tu, Donald? mode. At a June 23 press conference, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov darkly insinuated, in an “I don’t even want to suspect it” way, that last year’s Alaska summit may have been just a ploy to buy more time for Kyiv. (No, but it’s a nice thought.)

And there’s trouble brewing in Belarus. On Thursday, in a meeting with Russian ambassador to Minsk Boris Gryzlov, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko emphatically said that while Belarus “stands with Russia,” it will resist any efforts to draw it into the war—and made it plain that the efforts were coming from Gryzlov. This would be standard rhetoric for the canny Belarusian strongman—except for one detail. Since the start of the war, Lukashenko’s insistence that he was not involved in it went hand in hand with providing low-key logistical support to Russia. Since last December, that logistical support included relay stations on the Belarus/Ukraine border that helped guide Russian drone strikes on Ukraine. Then, on June 19, Zelensky issued an ultimatum to Lukashenko that if those stations were not disabled, the Ukrainians themselves would act to remove them. Three days later, Zelensky told the press, citing reports from Ukrainian intelligence and armed forces, that the relay stations were now offline. Ukrainian drones, it seems, make Ukrainian ultimatums much more persuasive. A subsequent Putin-Lukashenko summit at Putin’s Valdai residence ended in a boilerplate statement about discussions of “trade and economic cooperation” and “regional security issues.”

Could it be that Lukashenko—who, in the words of expatriate Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, is a “political animal” with a fine nose for power—can smell Russian defeat?

ON SUNDAY, PUTIN GAVE AN INTERVIEW to one of his favorite propagandists, Pavel Zarubin—often dubbed a “court journalist” because of his access to the Kremlin dictator—reiterating, yet again, that Russian troops were on a forward march in every combat zone in Ukraine. In a pathetic display that even many pro-war bloggers mocked, Putin tried to show his grasp on the situation by rattling off the names of specific towns, villages, and even streets—and not only got the facts wrong but even garbled a name, referring to the Ukrainian river Oskol as “Stary Oskol,” a town in Russia’s Belgorod region. He claimed that Russian troops were close to seizing the town of Kupyansk, whose supposed capture was celebrated by the Russian military and by Putin himself at least twice earlier this year.

And what about the Ukrainian strikes inside Russia? Mainly a psy-op, Putin explained, but Russia was already working on better air defense systems. Crimea? Sure, gas supplies were low, but deliveries by both land and water were imminent (he didn’t explain how) and the problems would be resolved. As for fuel problems on the Russian mainland, Putin said, “we are currently observing some shortages, but they are not critical.”

On the same day, a viral video showed a man in the Novgorod region waiting in a long gas station line after trying his luck at two other gas stations railing against “those who spread bullshit that everything is fine.” At the end of the 34-second clip, the man’s rant turned more personal. “Vova ought to be bent over for this!” he yelled, using the common nickname for Vladimir. “Bend him over right there on Red Square!”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 11:22 AM

THG

Is also JJ. Keep it real please, and use a VPN





tick tock comrade.

T

Ukraine Starts Cracking Open the Occupied Territories



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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 12:19 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian threat will outlast Putin, Sweden's military intelligence chief says

By Polina Moroziuk | June 30, 2026 6:15 pm

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-threat-will-outlast-putin-swedens-
intelligence-chief-says/

Russia is likely to remain a security threat long after President Vladimir Putin leaves office, Sweden's military intelligence chief said on June 30, describing Moscow's confrontation with the West as "deep, structural and enduring."

Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST), made the remarks in an interview with Bloomberg published on June 30.

"We don't see this crisis as a temporary one; Russia has chosen its path, and there is no way back," Nilsson said.

Nilsson also said Sweden saw no signs that Russia's political system or Vladimir Putin's grip on power were under immediate threat, despite economic strains caused by the war and Western sanctions.

"Political opposition has effectively been eliminated – through exile, imprisonment, or, in the worst cases, assassination," Nilsson said, adding that there was no political force capable of channeling public dissatisfaction into an alternative to the current regime.

The intelligence chief also said Russia was planning to expand its military presence along NATO's northeastern flank, stretching "from northern Finland all the way down." While many of those plans remain on paper as Moscow prioritizes its war against Ukraine, Sweden expects Russia to pursue them once it regains sufficient resources and military capacity.

Sweden joined NATO in March 2024 after abandoning decades of military non-alignment in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Alongside neighboring Finland, Sweden has significantly strengthened the alliance's presence in the Baltic region.

Nilsson's comments came after Nordic media recently reported, based on satellite imagery, that Russia was expanding military infrastructure near the Finnish border. Moscow has previously said such deployments were a response to Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO.

Russia has repeatedly criticized both countries' decision to join the alliance.

Sweden has remained one of Ukraine's key European partners since Russia's full-scale invasion. On June 18, Stockholm announced an additional $108 million in military aid through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative alongside additional assistance pledged by Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 2:16 PM

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Russia Shifts Donetsk Capture Deadlines – Now at 15 Attempts

By Kyiv Post | June 30, 2026, 12:20 am

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79230

… in 2022, the deadlines were March 31, then May 9, June 1, Sept. 15, and Dec. 31.

In 2023, Putin set two more deadlines for the capture of Donbas – March 1 and then Dec. 31.

“In 2024, there were again two such deadlines,” Zelensky said, adding that in 2025, Russia tried to convince US President Donald Trump that Ukraine would “supposedly fall,” giving three final dates for capturing the region – Sept. 1, Dec. 1, and Dec. 25.

“Already this year, the Russians have again pushed back the date,” he said. At first, they set the deadline of March 31, then Sept. 1, “and now the deadline is Dec. 31.”

In May, Zelensky confirmed Russia has lost 145,000 troops since the start of 2026, including nearly 86,000 killed.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026 6:23 PM

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Tucker Carlson's podcast with Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout

By Kate Tsurkan
June 30, 2026 7:14 PM

. . . Carlson's interview with Bout wrapped up with a call for the U.S. and Russia to "unite and stop being sworn enemies."

Carlson has emerged as perhaps the most vocal proponent of the view — now gaining traction within a particular faction of the American right — that Russia is not a historic adversary of the U.S., but a natural ally.

While this view does not represent the entirety of the Republican Party, it is closely linked to longstanding currents of skepticism within the right — and as McGlynn warns, it is one that Russia is all too willing to exploit.

"Several currents feed it: hostility to NATO and foreign aid, an affinity for Russia as a socially conservative counter-model, and the simple fact that opposing Ukraine has become an identity marker," McGlynn said.

"Moscow treats these constituencies as an asset and tailors content to their tastes."

More at https://kyivindependent.com/tucker-carlson-boosts-kremlin-propaganda-a
gain-in-interview-with-arms-dealer/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 6:42 AM

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The Finnish analyst Joni Askola takes a somewhat sceptical view. He wrote that it will take months before the “logistic lockdown”, as the Ukrainian defence minister called it, starts to manifest itself at the front.

“Kremlin still possesses an extensive logistic network that consists of thousands of trucks and railway trains. Russian units at the frontline can also draw from extensive stockpiles. Not even a perfectly executed campaign against logistics can magically empty these depots in a few weeks. When August or September comes, months of continuous pressure will likely cause some Russian units to struggle to secure basic supplies,” he wrote.

https://x.com/joni_askola/status/2071565456146661825

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 7:49 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Your party is being destroyed and all you can think about until the very end is Russia and Trump.



--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 8:36 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


How many times have we read Russia is on the back foot, Ukraine has the momentum"?

2023, when Ukraine attempted a combined arms maneuver, only to smash against the Surovikin line?
Rabotyn (over and over)?
Bakhmut?
Kursk?

Meanwhile, Russia advances like a lava flow.

Quote:
Ukraine’s Desperate Propaganda Campaign While Russia Advances along the Entire Front

Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western backers have launched a desperate 40-day “campaign of terrors” — which includes a mix of military escalations and a massive information/psyops operation designed to portray Russia as collapsing and Putin as facing an imminent uprising or coup. The goal is to force Russia into a ceasefire. Western audiences are being flooded with social media and regular media articles that paint a dire picture of Russia’s military campaign, while touting Ukraine’s incredible accomplishments. It is all a load of crap, but that is all the West has left in its quiver as Russia’s campaign of attrition continues to pulverize Ukraine.

. . .

Now for the reality. Yes, Ukraine has hit some Russian refineries and created some spectacular visuals of billowing smoke and fire. However, this is nothing more than military political theater that is intended to distract from Urkaine’s setbacks all along the front. As a side note, Russian oil exports have increased during this same period, putting to bed the narrative that Russia’s oil industry in suffering catastrophic losses. Here is a summary of Russian activity, starting in the Northern section of the front:

Sumy Direction

In the Sumy direction, the “North” assault groups advanced on 19 sectors, and some units of Ukraine’s 104th Territorial Defense Brigade abandoned their positions in Bachevsk. Russian forces continued active operations along the border, conducting strikes on Ukrainian positions and logistics. They reported repelling multiple Ukrainian attempts to cross into Russian territory and inflicting significant losses on enemy manpower and equipment. Russian soldiers are now only a few kilometers from Sumy itself.

Kharkiv Direction

Russian troops advanced in several sectors north and northeast of Kharkiv. The MOD reported the liberation of additional border settlements and improvement of tactical positions. Russian Geran drones conduct a series of high-precision strikes on gas infrastructure in Kharkiv region overnight. A gas distribution station near Panyutino was struck — disabling gas storage tanks, gas pumping plants, and a gas treatment facility. The Skvortsovskaya gas treatment system near Kosogorovka was also hit.???????????????? Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled, with Russian artillery and aviation playing a key role in degrading enemy capabilities.

Donetsk Direction (Primary Focus)

Donetsk remains the main direction of Russian offensive operations. Russian troops are steadily advancing on the Pokrovsk axis, with Russian forces capturing multiple settlements and pushing toward key logistical nodes. The most notable achievement is in Konstantinovka, where Russian units have taken control of most of the city and disrupted Ukrainian supply lines. With both Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka gone, Russia controls the two southern and eastern approaches that previously buffered the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. The H-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and the T-0504 Bakhmut-Pokrovsk highway — both of which Russian forces had been fighting to seize specifically to link these two axes — now forms a contiguous corridor under Russian control, allowing logistics and force concentration to flow directly toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk without contesting two separate urban battles.The Russians also are advancing around Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, including gains in urban fighting and elevated positions.

Overall, the Russian MOD described consistent liberation of territory, high daily Ukrainian losses, and effective use of glide bombs, drones, and artillery to support ground advances.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro region)

In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade captured Bogodarivka, the third settlement in three days since crossing the Dnieper River. Russian forces continue conducting regular long-range strikes (missiles and drones) on military-industrial targets, energy infrastructure, and logistical hubs in the oblast. Key targets included defense factories, repair facilities, and rail nodes supporting the Ukrainian front.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

In the Zaporozhye area, Russian forces have blocked a Ukrainian bridgehead in Aleksandrovka and have reached the southern outskirts of Pokrovskoye. After Russian forces took control of Novy Donbass, they advanced towards Shevchenko and Svetloye, isolating Ukrainian forward positions with drones. Russian forces maintain pressure through artillery, drone strikes, and localized assaults, destroying Ukrainian strongholds and equipment while holding defensive lines.

Kherson Direction

Operations remained largely positional along the Dnipro River. The Russian MOD highlighted successful strikes on Ukrainian crossings, logistics, and manpower concentrations on the right bank. Russian units conducted raids and maintained control over left-bank positions.

In other words, the Russian summer offensive is underway and Ukraine, despite its propaganda offensive, is retreating to the west.


https://sonar21.com/ukraines-desperate-propaganda-campaign-while-russi
a-advances-along-the-entire-front/

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 8:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


My whole point is how many times have we heard either side has the upper hand?


Meanwhile, the Chinese are making videos for TikTok, trolling all the people who are being roasted alive this summer in Paris after making such a big deal about all but banning air conditioners and being all smug about it.

There are some real world issues going on, and unless somebody is going to actually expose what the US is really doing there and who's all involved, I'm not worried about Russia when we've got Muslims invading everyone and the Chinese have long been a much greater potential threat than Russia has.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 9:02 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine urges EU to send defense funds before battlefield window closes

Alex Stezhensky | July 1, 2026, 06:19 AM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/fedorov-urges-eu-to-send-peace-facility-f
unds-to-ukraine-s-defense-50620788.html

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov urged EU partners in a letter to allocate 6.6 billion euros ($7.5 billion) available through the European Peace Facility for military aid to Kyiv. Reuters reported the appeal, citing the text of the letter it obtained.

The money is needed to seize a “window of opportunity” on the battlefield that will last six to nine months, Fedorov wrote.

Fedorov wrote that Ukraine’s defense needs this year are estimated at about 136 billion euros ($155 billion), with Ukraine’s budget covering about 53 billion euros ($60.4 billion) of that amount, Reuters reported.

Ukraine is expected to receive 28.3 billion euros ($32.3 billion) for defense through EU macro-financial assistance, but Fedorov said a major funding gap remains even after those funds are counted.

Money from the European Peace Facility could become “one of the most significant European contributions to Ukraine’s defense this year, but only if these resources are directed where they can generate the greatest and most immediate military effect,” Fedorov said.

Speaking at a European Council meeting on June 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged EU leaders to quickly send 6 billion euros ($6.8 billion) unlocked through the European Peace Facility to support Ukraine.

In an interview with Politico, Fedorov said Ukraine was urging its allies to seize a “short-lived opportunity” and fund a new wave of drones, missiles and military technology to help keep Russia under constant pressure and consolidate gains by Ukraine’s defense forces.

“We need the next level of assistance to finish the job. If we have enough resources to launch a new cycle of military innovation before Russia adapts to the current one, it will give us roughly another six months of advantage,” the minister said.

On June 30, a special fund in Ukraine’s state budget received 3.9 billion euros ($4.4 billion) from the European Union as the first defense tranche under the Ukraine Support Loan program. The money will be used to finance priority defense needs, including strengthening Ukraine’s defense industry and securing urgent supplies for the front line.

On June 25, Ukraine received the first tranche of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan, worth 3.2 billion euros ($3.6 billion).

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 10:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nah. They're winning. They don't need any more money. Figure it out.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 7:48 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nah. They're winning. They don't need any more money. Figure it out.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.
Touche.

Logic was never SECOND'S strong suit.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 9:44 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine’s Plan to Unnerve Putin

Recent drone attacks in the Moscow area reveal a multifaceted strategy.

By Phillips Payson O’Brien | June 30, 2026, 2:39 PM ET

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/moscow-ukraine-drone-attacks
/687745/

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has launched a series of drone attacks on targets deep inside Russian territory—most consequentially in and near Moscow. Last night, near the Russian capital, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian weaponry attacked the Dubna Space Communications Center, which Russia uses to collect intelligence and coordinate operations by its army units in occupied Ukraine. This was Ukraine’s second strike on the Dubna facility in about a week.

Zelensky’s announcement of the latest attacks taunted Vladimir Putin, declaring matter-of-factly that “relevant actions are also being prepared against other similar enemy facilities.” The intended message to the Russian public is that the drone campaign, which Ukraine coyly describes as “long-range sanctions” against the country that invaded its territory, is nowhere near plateauing.

The recent focus on Moscow-area targets reveals how the Ukrainian government and military, in addition to trying to defend their territory from Russian aerial attack, are now taking the war to Putin’s doorstep. They are trying to put political and economic pressure on Putin’s regime and disable his war machine by starving it of money, supplies, and soldiers. Recent attacks on the Dubna facility and on a major Moscow oil refinery typify distinct parts of the Ukrainian strategy to make the war unsustainable for the Russian dictator.

The refinery, which was targeted as part of a mass Ukrainian attack on the Russian capital on June 18, produces about 40 percent of the Moscow region’s fuel market and has reportedly been put out of action for the remainder of 2026. This attack worked on a number of levels to embarrass and undermine Putin.

First, the attack created, almost certainly intentionally, a massive fire that released a thick plume of black smoke that was visible across Moscow. The point was unmistakable: Ukraine is here and can hit even the most important economic targets. Muscovites, your days of pretending the war is far away from your own comfortable existence are over. Indeed, Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure have created major gas shortages that are bedeviling much of the Russian hinterland. Similar pain may soon be in store for the capital.

The Moscow-refinery attacks also point to another Ukrainian goal: threatening Putin’s access to the money that he needs to keep fighting. Putin’s war has already burned through much of Russia’s once-large sovereign wealth fund. A fascinating recent report from a German think tank concludes that the Russian economy is approaching its “endgame,” as “growth has come to a standstill and fiscal buffers are largely exhausted.” To fund the country’s armed forces, Russia is almost entirely dependent on selling oil and other petroleum products to the rest of the world.
https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications
/fis-import/3d87c36f-c2f7-46a6-aedb-8c03627a224a-Endgame_The-State-of-the-Russian-Economy-Kiel_Report_No_9-english-Version.pdf

For the past few months, Donald Trump has been providing Putin with a reprieve—the Iran war drove up world oil prices and created many new consumers for Russian gas, thereby creating a massive surge in income. But as hostilities in the Persian Gulf have somewhat subsided, so has the global oil price—meaning that Russia is earning less per barrel of oil that it exports.

The Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities have presented Putin with a dilemma. The gasoline shortage is plainly creating public discontent. But if Russia limits exports to preserve domestic oil supply, it will also reduce the amount of money it can pour into the war. Less money coming into government coffers also means fewer goodies for the population of Moscow, whose acquiescence Putin desperately needs.

Just as the refinery attack sent a warning to Russia’s economic policy makers and the general population, the two strikes on the Dubna facility speak loudly to the Russian military. Since its full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has already suffered more than 1.3 million casualties, and Ukrainian mid-range weaponry has badly disrupted Russian military logistics. The invaders’ command-and-control systems were lumbering even before Ukraine began attacking them in earnest. Now the Ukrainians are saying: Not even your most important facilities deep in Russia are safe. Your poor performance in the field is going to get worse.

Perhaps Russia will adapt to Ukraine’s nimble deployment of rapidly advancing drone technology. But its efforts to do so should not inspire much confidence among the Russian public. Putin’s regime has reportedly been shifting air-defense systems to Moscow from elsewhere in Russia. Ukraine has still managed to penetrate those defenses, and may now have an easier time hitting targets outside Moscow.

For the past few days, Ukraine has been insisting that the future will only get worse for Russians. On June 25, Zelensky announced “a 40-day influence operation” meant to compel the “aggressor state” to end the war.

The recent attacks probably won’t force Russia out of the war quickly, and Zelensky surely knows this. But even if Ukraine’s drone strikes do not immediately end Putin’s rule, they have dispelled the idea that Putin can defend Moscow, protect the Russian economy, and look after the Russian military. By revealing the limits of Putin’s power, Ukraine has to be making his allies and flatterers very nervous.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026 9:54 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine is doing a better job of breaking through Russia's air defenses, and they're getting through with stronger payloads, hitting strategic targets more precisely in ways that create ever larger impacts.



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 2, 2026 6:01 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nah. They're winning. They don't need any more money. Figure it out.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.
Touche.

Logic was never SECOND'S strong suit.
Wow! Time for a sports analogy from the Indianapolis 500! The race between Ukraine and Russia is at the halfway point. Since Team Ukraine and Team Russia are on the same lap, Team Ukraine is "winning" and doesn't need to stop for refueling or tire changes, which cost money. It is time to send the Ukrainian teams' pit crews home for a well-deserved weekend of rest. The Ukrainian race cars can now cruise to a guaranteed victory from here without ever stopping for the next 250 miles for fuel or maintenance.

Quote:
An Indy 500 race car typically stops for fuel 5 to 8 times during the 200-lap race. Because the fuel tanks hold roughly 18.5 gallons, a car can only run about 30 to 35 laps per tank, making multiple refueling stops a mandatory requirement to cover the 500-mile distance.

A precise breakdown of the variables shaping pit stops includes:

• Stint Length: Drivers can complete between 30 and 45 laps on a single tank of gas. The exact number of laps depends on engine mapping, track temperatures, and whether they are "saving fuel" to stretch their stint.

• Total Time: An ideal pit stop takes roughly 7 seconds, during which crews replenish the 18.5-gallon fuel tank, swap all four tires, and make aerodynamic wing adjustments.

• Caution Flag Impacts: The exact number of stops frequently shifts because of full-course cautions. Pitting under a caution flag costs significantly less track time than doing so under green flag conditions, forcing teams to constantly adapt their refueling strategies.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 2, 2026 6:01 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian forces seized or infiltrated 30.42 square kilometers in June 2026 and advanced or infiltrated at an average pace of 1.01 square kilometers per day. Russian forces comparatively seized 481.25 square kilometers in June 2025, advancing at an average pace of 16.04 square kilometers per day.

Russian forces therefore reportedly suffered around 1,298 casualties per square kilometer they seized or infiltrated in June 2026. Russian forces comparatively suffered 32,680 casualties in June 2025, an average of 68 casualties per kilometer taken.[4] Russian forces suffered over 19 times more casualties per kilometer in June 2026 compared to June 2025 . . .

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-july-1-2026/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 2, 2026 12:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nah. They're winning. They don't need any more money. Figure it out.

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Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.
Touche.

Logic was never SECOND'S strong suit.
Wow! Time for a sports analogy from the Indianapolis 500! The race between Ukraine and Russia is at the halfway point. Since Team Ukraine and Team Russia are on the same lap, Team Ukraine is "winning" and doesn't need to stop for refueling or tire changes, which cost money. It is time to send the Ukrainian teams' pit crews home for a well-deserved weekend of rest. The Ukrainian race cars can now cruise to a guaranteed victory from here without ever stopping for the next 250 miles for fuel or maintenance.


If they can't win the war on their own, fuck 'em. Nobody gives a single fuck if they run out of fuel.

All I keep hearing out of you two fucking idiots is that they're winning.

You don't need any money then. Go fuck yourself, Zelensky. And stop raping kids.

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Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Thursday, July 2, 2026 1:50 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

If they can't win the war on their own, fuck 'em. Nobody gives a single fuck if they run out of fuel.

All I keep hearing out of you two fucking idiots is that they're winning.

You don't need any money then. Go fuck yourself, Zelensky. And stop raping kids.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance [to Trump's tunes] always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.
I don't mind telling you that Trump has been credibly accused of being a pedophile. And also a tax cheater. Like his heroic Trump, 6ixStringJoker doesn't pay income tax, but he doesn't even have to cheat to not pay, unlike Trump. Being angry, poor white trash who cheat is the natural condition of Trump voters.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 2, 2026 1:54 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine can win the battles. Without the word “victory,” it loses the war.

NATO’s former deputy commander says no one but Ukraine names victory as the goal. Ukraine’s former defense minister warns that without naming it, even a battlefield win is no victory at all.

By Alya Shandra | July 2, 2026

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/02/ukraine-can-win-the-battles-wit
hout-the-word-victory-it-loses-the-war/

Sir Richard Shirreff has spent a decade being right about Russia and ignored for it. So when NATO's former deputy supreme commander told Euromaidan Press at the GLOBSEC conference that no one apart from Ukraine names the war's objective plainly—victory, meaning the defeat of Russia, with no lasting peace until it comes—we had to check to see precisely who.

What we found: across the people who run Western defense—the NATO Secretary General, the alliance's top soldiers, the leaders of its largest members—Shirreff is right. But there's a twist. The word was once spoken, loudly, at the very top, after Ukraine's inspirational 2022 counteroffensive. It has since drained out of the same mouths that used it—and it has not come back, even now, with deep strikes becoming so effective as to give Ukraine a realistic chance of retaking Crimea.

Occasionally, western officials slip into saying “Ukraine can win.” But it is always followed by “let’s negotiate a ceasefire.” It is never followed by “therefore, let’s make a plan so Ukraine will win.”

The gap between the premise and the conclusion is costing Ukraine the victory its soldiers are winning—because victory is a decision, not an outcome. Someone has to name the political end-state and hold to it. When no one does, the battlefield wins evaporate into a settlement that hands the loser what he could not take by force.

Admiral Rob Bauer, who chaired NATO's Military Committee through the war's first three years, told Euromaidan Press that if the West had armed Ukraine in 2022 as it eventually did, "you might have won." His explanation for why it didn't was not about Russian strength: "It was never formulated as, 'We're doing this so that Ukraine can win the war.'"

Whether this scenario repeats now depends on exactly that—whether victory is named as a goal.

The severed sentence, in one man

Nobody performs this better than Finland's President Alexander Stubb, and he did it in a single interview.

Speaking to the Swiss daily NZZ in early June, Stubb laid out the most detailed victory case any sitting leader has offered. The war, he said, has moved through three stages: "The first year of the war was about survival. The next three years were about resilience. Now it is a question of mathematics—battlefield mathematics." Then he did the math—35,000 Russian casualties a month against 27,000 recruits, a loss ratio gone from one-to-three to one-to-eight, Ukraine in April retaking more ground than it lost for the first time in the war.

His conclusion: Ukraine is in "a much stronger position on the battlefield today than at any time since the beginning of the conflict."

And the step he takes from it is not "so let us resource the win." It is: "I think we should talk to Putin." Why now? Because—his words—"you can only negotiate with the Russians when they are not in a position of power."

Read that twice. Stubb has just proven Ukraine holds the upper hand, and he converts the upper hand into a reason to open talks, not a reason to finish the job. The advantage becomes leverage for a ceasefire. It never becomes a mandate for victory. Even at his most bullish—at Munich in February he told Ukrainians "it seems to me that you will win this war" and that Putin "has suffered a strategic defeat"—the verb is descriptive.

Stubb exemplifies a pattern by Western officials. You may win, we'll grant you that. Never: we will make you win, and here is how.

The same NATO chair, the word gone

Stubb is one clever Finn. NATO is the alliance—and NATO is where the disappearance is the starkest, because you can watch the identical chair change its mind.

In July 2023, at the Vilnius summit, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg put it without a hedge: "unless we ensure that Ukraine wins this war, unless we ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation... the most imminent task is to ensure that Ukraine prevails and President Putin does not win this war." At Munich that February he had been blunter still: "we must give Ukraine what they need to win."

The word, the verb, the objective—all of it, from the top of the alliance.

Now the same chair. Asked directly at a January 2026 forum whether Ukraine needs to win the war rather than merely survive it, Secretary General Mark Rutte did not say yes. He answered that the task was to bring Ukraine to a place where "the Russians will never attack again. But that then will lead to a very sensitive discussion about territory."

The chair that said "win this war" in 2023 now pivots, on the direct question, to a sensitive discussion about territory, implying that Russia will keep its land grabs.

Mark Rutte could not bring himself to imply that such a situation could be called Ukraine's "victory."

Even the soldiers say "can," not "must"

The retreat is starkest where you would least expect it—among the serving commanders whose job is winning wars.

General Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander until July 2025, does not lack confidence in Ukraine. In a June 2026 interview he called Ukraine's war effort "one of the most remarkable military feats of the century," said Ukraine was "regaining moderate amounts of territory" and "rapidly moving into a position of gaining advantage." And then, in the Q&A after: "this does not appear to be the sort of war that's going to move toward an unconditional surrender of one side or the other... anything short of that is going to be some sort of brokered decision."

Ukraine gaining, in the same breath as a brokered deal. The general sees the advantage and does not name the win.

His successor, General Alexus Grynkewich, went as far as "can." Asked at his June 2025 confirmation hearing whether Ukraine could win, he answered without hesitation: "I think Ukraine can win." In the same hearing he described his own task as giving President Trump options to reach the president's stated objective—a ceasefire.

NATO's top commander expressed optimism about Ukraine's chances and, in the same sitting, defined his job as delivering a draw.

There was a time when "victory" was sayable

In September 2022, as Ukraine's forces broke the Russian line at Kharkiv and retook thousands of square kilometers, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stood in Kyiv and told Zelenskyy, "I'm deeply convinced you will win this war." In February 2023, on the war's first anniversary, US President Joe Biden declared in Warsaw that "Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia — never." It was then that Stoltenberg said the alliance's most urgent task was to "ensure that Ukraine prevails."

This matters because a “just and lasting peace” can mean many things. In September 2022, when Zelenskyy spoke at the UN General Assembly, he presented "not any kind of peace… but just and lasting peace" as the umbrella over what became his 10-point Peace Formula—meaning Russia is fully forced out and pays reparations.

In 2026, it has devolved to mean “the fighting freezes at the current line of contact and Ukraine gets unclear security guarantees,” with equally unclear consequences for Ukraine’s future.

The change of meaning of "just and lasting peace" was most recently evident in the E3 statement that Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz signed with Zelenskyy this June. The statement "welcomed recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield, including the recent liberation of territory," and then, a line later, set out that "the current line of contact should be the starting point for negotiations." Ukraine is retaking ground, and the same document proposes to freeze it where it stands.

The words held; what they carried was hollowed out.

The thing is that nobody really knows how to live with a 1,200 km-long frontline that, even if frozen, will need immense money and resources to patrol and repel Russian attacks. And attack it will: we have seen this scenario play out during 2014-2022 in Donbas, when Russia exploited a low-level war as it tried to destabilize and drag Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence—until it invaded outright.

Western officials are mostly unanimous that a frozen conflict means Russia will recuperate, rearm, and reattack. The experts say that even before this happens, the frozen conflict scenario will cost the EU twice as much as helping Ukraine win. Nobody is making a victory plan to spare both Ukraine and the EU from facing this outcome.

Why the V-word left—and it was not Trump

So, what changed? It is tempting to read this as the Trump effect, the negotiations track imposed from Washington. The timeline says otherwise, and a Ukrainian who watched it happen said so at the time.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk—Ukraine's former defense minister—told Euromaidan Press in November 2023 that the coalition "still cannot entertain the idea of its victory," that Western leaders were "too afraid to say we are going to go for victory," and that what was missing was "a joint strategic plan, which currently we don't have." A year later, in October 2024—still under Biden, before Trump took office—he was blunter: asked whether the West was truly choosing Ukrainian victory, he said, "the short answer is absolutely not."

He named the mechanism, too. In late 2022 Washington had convinced itself Russia was ready for nuclear escalation, and that caution, he argued, "actually promotes escalation because it encourages Russia to keep playing with nuclear threats—they see it works."

The self-deterrence set in at the very peak of the victory talk, as Euromaidan Press documented last year. Trump did not kill the objective. He inherited one that had already been hollowed out, and formalized the ceasefire track the hollowing had made inevitable.

The coast is clear, and yet "victory" has not returned

Every condition that once made the word sayable is present again. Ukraine is striking Russian refineries, gas plants, and arsenals more than a thousand kilometers deep. The US-brokered ceasefire push has, in Shirreff's phrase, become a "groundhog day" that "has run out of steam"—stalled not on any Ukrainian refusal, but on Russia's use of each truce as a pause to regroup, while Zelenskyy plays along to keep Washington on side.

The battlefield argument for naming victory is stronger now than in 2022. The word still has not come back. That is the measure of how completely it left: renewed success does not restore it, because what went missing was never the evidence. It was the will to name the goal.

Shirreff wants to change that. "It just defies belief that people don't see it so clearly, so crystal clear, that the only way there will be a lasting peace is the defeat of Russia," he told Euromaidan Press.

Why has the word not returned? His answer: "timidity, fear, lack of political will, complacency"—and a policy establishment that half-believes Russia's story that it is unbeatable because of its size. "I don't accept that," he added. What is missing, in his account, is the courage that comes from the determination not to be beaten. The case that strong action now prevents a worse war later is a hard one to make in a democracy, where the instinct in the face of the worst case is to look away and hope it does not come.

The men outside the room

The word survives, intact and prescriptive, among those no longer accountable for delivering it.

Retired US general Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe, draws the whole line: "the best way to make sure that Russia never attacks Europe is to help Ukraine defeat Russia," he told Charter97—and he names the method, strangling Russia's oil and gas export revenues until the war economy seizes. His blunter version is the title of another interview: we are not helping Ukraine to win. Zagorodnyuk argues it from Kyiv. And Shirreff, now chief foreign military advisor to Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, has stopped merely warning and started pushing for the plan.

His prescription inverts the very word the rest of the field hides behind. He does not oppose a ceasefire; he opposes the capitulation being sold as one. The only ceasefire worth having, he told us, is one "that means victory over Russia." Getting there starts now: a Sky Shield over the parts of Ukraine Russia does not occupy, Article 5's guarantee extended to that territory, and the West supplying what Ukraine needs to win rather than what is convenient to give.

But beyond these first steps, achieving the defeat of Russia will require, in Shirreff's words, a grand strategy with several strands of operation. See what they are in our full interview. https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/06/27/natos-former-deputy-commander-k
eeps-saying-the-word-others-wont-victory/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 2, 2026 4:56 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Putin Is Slipping Into Delusion

The Russian dictator remains obsessed with his war in Ukraine but doesn’t seem to comprehend how badly it’s going.

By Simon Shuster | July 1, 2026, 10:12 AM ET

Simon Shuster has reported on armed conflicts and authoritarian regimes for nearly two decades. His best-selling book, The Showman, chronicles the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/07/putin-russia-ukr
aine-war/687753/

When things get dicey in Moscow, Vladimir Putin tends to drop out of sight for a while, retreating to one of his residences and canceling public events. Only his closest aides know how he spends his time during these absences, which can go on for days even in the middle of a national crisis. The Kremlin does its best to fill the vacant airtime on state TV with pretaped footage of the president, waiting for him to reemerge and declare that everything remains under his control.

Since the end of last year, when Ukraine intensified its campaign of drone and missile strikes on Russian cities, Putin has taken a few of these breaks. Two of them lasted for more than a week. He has mostly avoided talking about the Ukrainian strikes, even as they caused fuel shortages across Russia, destroyed infrastructure, and shattered the sense of stability that Putin offers his people in exchange for their loyalty. His first detailed response to the threat came on Monday, and he did his best to seem unmoved.

In a carefully scripted interview on state TV, Putin looked bored with the details of governing Russia and managing the frustrations of his citizens, but he did not appear tired of his war in Ukraine. He spent most of the 19-minute conversation with a Russian news anchor dissecting the minutiae of the fighting, even naming a particular street in one small town in the region of Donetsk where, according to Putin, his forces had managed to gain a bit of ground. The performance seemed designed to suggest that, away from the cameras, the Russian leader spends his time hunched over maps of the battlefield.

The Russian people, by contrast, have run out of patience with the war their leader seems so eager to continue. A survey released on the same day as Putin’s interview found that 81 percent of Russians want the war to end “as early as tomorrow.” The number of respondents who want the fighting to continue until Russia’s victory, no matter how long it takes, dropped in the survey to 9 percent, the lowest level ever recorded by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia, which has conducted 10 rounds of polling since the start of the war, in 2022.

Its most recent survey matched up with the images and complaints that have flooded Russian social networks in the past few weeks, showing long lines at gas stations in Moscow and trucks stalled without fuel on the roadside. “There’s no gasoline in the city,” one man posted from a suburb of Moscow. “And the TV is silent about it.”

If Putin cares about such problems, he has done a decent job of hiding it. “Everything is working stably and with a big reserve of strength,” he said in Monday’s interview, referring to the fuel shortages spreading through Russia. His tone reminded me of Putin’s attitude toward the war in Syria, where Russian forces intervened in 2015 to save the regime in Damascus from a revolution. Back then, Putin still held regular meetings in Moscow with Russian businesspeople and corporate executives, hearing out their concerns about high interest rates, slow economic growth, and other matters of concern for the state.

One of the regular guests at those meetings described to me how Putin had trouble sitting through them. Obviously distracted, he would fidget in his seat and doodle in his notebook. When the conversation turned to the subject of war, however, the president would come alive, describing the kinds of fighter jets Russia used to bombard rebel positions in Syria and naming towns with stubborn pockets of resistance. “This was his passion,” the businessman told me. “Nothing else interested him the same way.”

A decade later, and more than four years into his invasion of Ukraine, this element of Putin’s character seems only to have hardened. He treats the war as his calling, the purest expression of the power he has hoarded for a quarter century. The incalculable pain and suffering it has caused, with more than a million casualties overall, do not evoke for Putin anywhere near the level of emotion he displays when talking about the war’s mechanics.

“The direction of Rubtsi, on the left bank of the Stary Oskol river, we have nearly, practically, blocked a mixed group of enemy forces, around 5,000 troops, who are now pressed up against that river,” Putin said, apparently reading from a screen that stood over the interviewer’s right shoulder. “Only about two kilometers remain until their final encirclement, a problem that our 144th Division is working to solve.”

He carried on like this for nearly 10 minutes, at one point listing the number of houses that remain unconquered in one village in eastern Ukraine, a place that the average Russian does not care about, will never visit, and would have trouble finding on the map. Putin appeared to be making up facts as he went along. No encirclement around Rubtsi (population: 350 ) has been reported by any reliable source in Russia or Ukraine, and there is no river called Stary Oskol in that region. The Russian president’s obsession with the details of the fighting appears to have crossed the line into delusion.

Does that mania for war make him any more likely to cut his losses and accept a negotiated peace? Probably not. His interview on Monday illustrated what many in Ukraine and Europe have long concluded about Putin’s state of mind. He has convinced himself that the attritional math of the war favors Russia, and he will continue to press the numerical advantage of his forces regardless of how long the lines for gasoline in Moscow might get.

In the end, Russia could still face defeat, and the recent dynamics of the fighting have made that outcome look more likely than ever. Russia now loses an average of at least 30,000 troops a month, killed or gravely wounded. The Russian military struggles to replace those losses despite offering bonuses to new recruits worth up to $80,000—enough to buy an apartment in many Russian cities. For those sent to the front, the average life expectancy stands at around two or three weeks, according to one Russian military blogger who follows the fighting closely. “I have no doubt that another wave of mobilization will come as expected,” the blogger wrote at the end of May.

Mobilizing more troops would be among Putin’s more obvious options for continuing the war for a long time to come. In September 2022, during another low point for him in this war, Putin called up 300,000 soldiers in the first military draft in Russia since the Second World War. Doing that again would devastate the Russian economy and risk a surge of popular unrest. But many close observers of the war in Russia have concluded that Putin has no other choice. “This fall, there will either be peace or mobilization,” another military blogger wrote a few weeks ago, setting off a debate on Russian social networks about whether men should pack their bags for basic training.

In his interview, Putin did not mention any plans to mobilize more forces. He also didn’t point to any viable path to peace. He only repeated his aim to conquer all of Novorossiya, or New Russia, a vague term that, in his mind, seems to encompass most of southern and eastern Ukraine. At their current rate of advance, Russian forces would need several more years of fighting to stand a realistic chance of achieving that goal. They would also need to be prepared to lose hundreds of thousands of soldiers. But that appears to be Putin’s intent, regardless of how his people might feel about it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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