Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, March 5, 2026 12:27
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PAGE 198 of 198

Sunday, March 1, 2026 5:24 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
America is bombing the shit out of Iran and Russia is helpless to intervein.

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be Russia's friend is fatal."

THG

T

Intervene.

Loser.

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Monday, March 2, 2026 6:51 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

March 1, 2026

Russia launched more than 14,670 guided aerial bombs, 738 missiles, and nearly 19,000 attack drones over the three winter months. https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/18142#

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/03/01/the-numbers-behind-ukraines-wor
st-winter-since-the-full-scale-invasion/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, March 2, 2026 7:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

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Monday, March 2, 2026 10:26 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Although Russia and Iran are allies and partners, Moscow is not helping the Iranian regime defend itself from US and Israeli attacks.

"Now that Iran's regime is in trouble, the lack of support from its allies is especially noticeable, with Russia particularly absent. Right now, Moscow is not rushing to rescue its 'ally'."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/02/8023468/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, March 2, 2026 10:37 AM

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Tuesday, March 3, 2026 5:08 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

“We shouldn’t have started with Ukraine”: Russia’s elite openly regret Ukraine war

By Kathrine Frich • March 2, 2026

https://www.dagens.com/war/we-shouldnt-have-started-with-ukraine-russi
as-elite-openly-regret-ukraine-war

Russia’s upper ranks now acknowledge that launching the invasion was a major strategic error.

“The Kremlin made a grave mistake in choosing Ukraine as the target of the attack. If the target had been different, Putin could have achieved much greater results.”

There is recognition that the war has brought heavy political and economic costs without delivering the expected strategic gains.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, March 3, 2026 6:03 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin’s $2.5 trillion gambit

By David R. Henderson and Ryan Sullivan | Mar 2, 2026, 06:00 PM

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2026/03/03/putins-25-trillion-gamb
it/

As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, debates over sanctions, negotiations and military aid increasingly hinge on a central question: How costly has the war been for Russia itself? Our analysis, using standard economic tools, finds the cost so far to be about $2.5 trillion.

Combining casualty figures, equipment and operational costs, and GDP losses indicates a total cost of approximately $2.5 trillion for the Russian Federation. To put that number in perspective, we note that it exceeds Russia’s $2.2 trillion GDP.

How do these costs compare to the benefits? Russia has gained approximately 28,000 square miles since the start of the war. Conquering a territory of this size has come at a cost of approximately $90 million per square mile in blood and treasure.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, March 4, 2026 5:23 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine's electricity deficit has fallen to 1 GW, energy minister says

By Alyona Kyrychenko — 3 March, 17:12

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/03/8023699/

Ukraine's power system recorded a 5 – 6 GW electricity deficit in winter, but it has now fallen to 1 GW.

Source: Ukraine's Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal, as reported by Liga.net, an independent Ukrainian online news outlet

Quote: "As of today, the deficit is 1 GW, which is five to six times less than it was in winter. This naturally means a reduction in the number of queues for domestic consumers and slightly less burdensome [power outage] schedules for businesses."

For reference: Ukraine's state-owned electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo defines a "queue" as a group of consumers and businesses using a specific amount of megawatts. The Dispatch Centre sets the number of queues needed across oblasts to address energy deficits. Critical infrastructure and eligible industrial companies that import at least 60% of their energy cannot be disconnected, according to a Ukrainian Cabinet resolution.

Details: Shmyhal also noted that businesses are adapting by developing their own distributed generation. He added that solar power plants are the fastest and most cost-effective way to produce electricity in Ukraine.

Quote: "Ukraine gets plenty of sunlight, and with the arrival of sunnier days and the summer, there will be a surplus of solar energy. This will need to be balanced through the installation of suitable batteries."

Background: In February 2026, Ukraine again imported a record amount of electricity – 1.26 million MWh, a 41% increase compared with January 2026.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, March 4, 2026 5:24 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Not enough Patriot missiles to stop 60 Russian Iskanders a month. The Iran war is draining what’s left.
Ukraine’s only defense against ballistic attacks became a whole lot harder to obtain

By Igor Kossov | 03/03/2026

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/03/03/not-enough-patriot-missiles-to-
stop-60-russian-iskanders-a-month-the-iran-war-is-draining-whats-left/

Patriot missile systems are Ukraine's only defense against ballistic missiles, of which Russia makes 70 to 85 per month.

But Patriot ammo, already in global short supply, is quickly draining as the US and Gulf states fend off Iranian missiles.

Ukraine has survived the winter but Russia’s airstrike campaign is not slowing down. Every month, hundreds of drones and missiles attack cities, killing people and damaging vital infrastructure.

While Ukraine has multiple options to deal with drones and cruise missiles, the country has just one answer to ballistic missiles, which plummet from the sky at steep angles.

With Iran firing hundreds of missiles at multiple targets in the opening days of the latest war, Taiwan preparing for an invasion from China, Europe trying to build up its capabilities, and Ukraine dealing with Russia’s terror strikes, everyone wants to get their hands on as many Patriot munitions as possible. But the US only produces limited amounts each year.

“Patriot missile production has been a bottleneck in US capabilities,” DeVore told Euromaidan Press. “The disconnect between supply and demand does mean that the US government has quite a bit of power in deciding whom to prioritize.”

High demand, limited supply

The Patriot system has gone through several generations of missile interceptors. The ones in use today include the older PAC-2 and the more widely-fielded PAC-3 MSE.

US defense contractors can produce 550 PAC-3 MSE interceptors per year, according to the Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Estimates. The US Army is buying 224 of them, while the remaining amount is slated for foreign sales. Each missile costs about $3.8 million.

The US also produces the cheaper PAC-2 interceptors for foreign buyers, but in much smaller quantities, according to US open source analyst John Ridge.

The DoD recently signed a framework with defense giant Lockheed Martin to raise PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 units per year over the next 6-7 years. The agreement has yet to be funded, but should slowly alleviate these issues over the next half-decade.

That does nothing for the short-term bottleneck. Current rates of production are not enough to feed both US and global demand, stoked by active wars and simmering tensions around the world, from Ukraine to Taiwan.

More about alternatives to the Patriot at https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/03/03/not-enough-patriot-missiles-to-
stop-60-russian-iskanders-a-month-the-iran-war-is-draining-whats-left/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, March 4, 2026 5:26 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian forces “deliberately and brutally” executed 337 Ukrainian prisoners of war as of the end of 2025, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, said on March 3.

Lubinets made the statement during a U.N. Human Rights Council meeting.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-executed-at-least-337-ukrainian-po
ws-50588722.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, March 5, 2026 7:38 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia–Ukraine War: escalation, not stalemate

The apparent stasis of Russia’s war in Ukraine rests on an unstable equilibrium that is driving escalation, not compromise. Russia’s recruitment dilemmas, Europe’s finances and China’s choices will shape its future.

Nigel Gould-Davies
Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia

25th February 2026

https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2026/02/russiaukr
aine-war-escalation-not-stalemate/

The fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine has begun. It is Russia’s longest continuous major war since the 18th century (the 1979–89 Soviet war in Afghanistan was a sideshow in tempo and casualties by comparison). It is also one of the longest wars between neighbours globally since 1945. In 2025, Russia gained less than 1% of Ukrainian territory and lost over 416,000 troops. Given the length, cost and stasis of the war, how likely is it to end soon?

The driver of the war has not changed over the past four years. Russia seeks to subordinate Ukraine, and Ukraine is determined to resist this. These positions remain incompatible. Both states are materially capable of continuing to fight and judge the costs politically tolerable. The war will end only if Russia wins it or accepts that it cannot win. It cannot currently do the first and refuses to do the second. Since it will not scale back its goals, it must scale up the resources it commits to them. This is a strategy of attrition: generating sustained, superior mass and firepower to grind down an enemy. It is the opposite strategy to the initial invasion plan to seize Kyiv in days. Mass has replaced speed.

Russia’s recruitment strains

In an attritional war, the side with more blood and treasure usually wins, where commitment remains equal. But though Russia’s population is over three times larger than Ukraine’s, and its economy over ten times larger, its attrition has so far failed. Ukraine’s remarkable ingenuity and resilience cannot alone explain this, for Russia has the resources to convert into superior mass. Yet so far Moscow has mobilised only a small, though growing, proportion of its total potential strength. This reflects an under-appreciated tension in its strategy. While the Kremlin sees the war as a core interest, it implicitly understands that most of Russian society does not. Few Russians are genuine enthusiasts of the war, though more are willing to profit from it. This has forced the Kremlin to carefully calibrate the pace and means of converting resources into useable force.

This is true above all of manpower. Rather than compel its citizens to fight, Russia pays them lavishly to do so. For the first time in modern history, it is waging a major war with a contract, not a mass conscript army – topped up with criminals, foreign recruits and up to 15,000 North Korean troops. By trading the rate of battlefield progress for stability at home, it has tried to flatten the curve of social strain. The result is not merely attrition but prolonged, constrained attrition.

Russia is approaching an inflection point in recruitment. Battlefield losses have begun to exceed the number of recruits. Quality is also falling: recruiting officers now complain of alcoholics, drug addicts and the destitute. Moscow may sooner or later face the choice of ordering a compulsory mobilisation or accepting decisive failure. In anticipation, it is building a system for issuing mass call-ups. Activating this would be a moment of truth for the regime. The brief ‘partial mobilisation’ it reluctantly imposed in September 2022 provoked widespread anxiety and a large outflow of draft avoiders. The Kremlin wants to avoid repeating, let alone expanding, this precedent.

A second reason for Russia’s failure is Western financial and material support for Ukraine. This now comes overwhelmingly from Europe. By a curious symmetry, Europe’s margin of superiority over Russia – over ten times economically and over three times by population – is almost identical to Russia’s over Ukraine. It provides a much smaller proportion of its resources than Russia or Ukraine is devoting to the war. It is capable of contributing far more.

The war’s unstable equilibrium

The present battlefield stasis thus rests on a rough equilibrium of power, defined by an inverse relationship between resources and resolve across the major actors. Ukraine has the fewest resources but the deepest commitment. Its mobilisation of military technology and manpower has been strong enough to offset, but not overwhelm, Russia’s resource advantage. Russia has mobilised enough force to pressure Ukraine, but not to defeat it. Europe is devoting a tiny part of its huge economy to support Ukraine – enough to prevent Kyiv’s defeat, but not to defeat Russia.

A costly war that no side can win should be ripe for ending through mutual compromise that is preferred by none but acceptable to all. But the Kremlin – driven by President Vladimir Putin’s historical psychological obsession with Ukraine – does not accept this logic and remains committed to victory. For this reason, the apparent equilibrium of power is unstable. Rather than inducing moderation, it is driving escalation.

Since Russia cannot break the front line, it is intensifying efforts to break its adversaries’ will by conducting air attacks of unprecedented severity on Ukrainian infrastructure and by widening its campaign of sabotage and threats in Europe. Its now-deep ties of trade and joint production with China and North Korea help it to manage the domestic strains of war production.

Ukraine, as the weaker combatant, is also incentivised to escalate to escape the attritional clash of mass. It has intensified attacks against Russia’s energy and military-industrial sectors. Its maritime campaign now targets not only Russia’s Black Sea navy but its sanctions-violating shadow fleet vessels beyond. Europe has begun to move more assertively against these, too, while preparing further sanctions. NATO member states are committed to raising defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Strategic choices

In sum, the war is not a stalemate. On land, sea and air, in sanctions’ design and enforcement, and in the geography of resourcing, the war is escalating and will continue to do so. It is also driving a revolution in military affairs, based on uninhabited vehicles and artificial intelligence, whose implications are still poorly understood. Negotiations cannot succeed while Russia still believes in victory. A year of turbulent diplomacy has, in essence, amounted to rival efforts by Russia and Ukraine to persuade United States President Donald Trump that the other side is responsible for the war.

Three strategic choices will shape the war’s evolution. Russia must, sooner or later, decide whether to mobilise manpower forcibly. NATO’s European members must decide how far and fast to push defence spending commitments through tight fiscal budgets. China must decide how deep its commitment to Russia will become. The grand strategic future depends on Russia’s home front, Europe’s finances and China’s calculations.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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