Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

Keep it real please

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Monday, September 29, 2025 3:26 PM

Keep it real please

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

14,000 killed over 3.5 years. That's 10 a day. I imagine that if Russia was TRULY targeting civilians, they could do better than that!

But maybe we should compare that to Palestinians, where the death toll is estimated at 600,000. Or Ukrainian soldiers, where the death toll is somewhere between 450,000 and 1.4 million. THAT'S what happens to targets in ethnic cleansing or war.

You refuse to face facts.

THUGR:

The world's press reports daily on how Putin keeps bombing cities. Everybody knows* it, except comrade signym that is.

OF COURSE Russia is bombing cities!

But do you think Russia is just dropping bombs at random?
OF COURSE NOT.

According to Military Summary, they're targeting drone manufacturing facilities, weapons and ammo storehouses, oil refineries or depots, military command offices, electrical generating plants or substations, weapon repair factories, military training grounds etc. I can sometimes tell what was hit when I see things like secondary detonations (a sure sign of weapons storage) or big plumes of black oil smoke or if the power goes out.

When civilians are killed it's bc of things like falling debris, an incoming missile gone astray, air defense missiles themselves falling on civilian areas, and the occasional night watchman.

I can recall only two civilian targets being hit. One was about a year ago, a pizza place next to a hotel where a high-level meeting with western military commanders was going on. The other was the Building of Ministers, and that was at night when the building was empty.

* A billion flies eat shit.

You are remarkably uninformed/ misinformed, THGR. Stop being such a little boy and learn about the real world.
ger

We are talking about Russia. Not whataboutism. You're a very sad lady. That said, everybody knows what Putin the butcher is doing, everybody but comrade signym.

The top priority for Pope Francis' peace envoy in his meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden was the repatriation of children forcibly deported from Ukraine to Russia, the papal nuncio to the United States said.

"The cardinal is very realistic, we try to do what is possible," Pierre said.

https://www.ncronline.org/vatican/vatican-news/repatriating-ukrainian-
children-topped-papal-envoys-agenda-biden

Russia’s bombing campaign is killing record numbers of Ukrainian civilians

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-bombing-cam
paign-is-killing-record-numbers-of-ukrainian-civilians/

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Monday, September 29, 2025 5:58 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
14,000 killed over 3.5 years. That's 10 a day. I imagine that if Russia was TRULY targeting civilians, they could do better than that!
But maybe we should compare that to Palestinians, where the death toll is estimated at 600,000. Or Ukrainian soldiers, where the death toll is somewhere between 450,000 and 1.4 million. THAT'S what happens to targets in ethnic cleansing or war.
You refuse to face facts.

THUGR:
The world's press reports daily on how Putin keeps bombing cities. Everybody knows* it, except comrade signym that is.

SIGNY:
OF COURSE Russia is bombing cities!
But do you think Russia is just dropping bombs at random?
OF COURSE NOT.
According to Military Summary, they're targeting drone manufacturing facilities, weapons and ammo storehouses, oil refineries or depots, military command offices, electrical generating plants or substations, weapon repair factories, military training grounds etc. I can sometimes tell what was hit when I see things like secondary detonations (a sure sign of weapons storage) or big plumes of black oil smoke or if the power goes out.

When civilians are killed it's bc of things like falling debris, an incoming missile gone astray, air defense missiles themselves falling on civilian areas, and the occasional night watchman.

I can recall only two civilian targets being hit. One was about a year ago, a pizza place next to a hotel where a high-level meeting with western military commanders was going on. The other was the Building of Ministers, and that was at night when the building was empty.

* A billion flies eat shit.

You are remarkably uninformed/ misinformed, THGR. Stop being such a little boy and learn about the real world.
ger

THUGR:
We are talking about Russia. Not whataboutism.

You're so stupid! YOU claimed that Russia was "targeting civilians". I provide proof that they're not.

So you switch to "Russia is bombing cities".
IT'S NOT.
It's bombing military targets IN cities, not just dropping missiles and drones willy nilly.
I back that up with videos, which is Military Summary's claim to fame: they don't declare something happened without proof.

What do you have??
"Everybody knows"?

A billion flies eat shit, son. Don't be a fly.

Quote:
The top priority for Pope Francis' peace envoy in his meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden was the repatriation of children forcibly deported from Ukraine to Russia, the papal nuncio to the United States said.

Dragged from the loving arms of their family?
NOPE!

Quote:
Ukrainian children have been abducted by the Russian state after their parents had been arrested by Russian occupation authorities or killed... or after becoming separated from their parents in an active war zone. Children have also been abducted from Ukrainian state institutions [orphanages, juvenile detention] in occupied areas...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_
War

So, parents: dead, arrested, unknown location, not in custodial care of their children.
What was Russia supposed to do? Leave them wandering the streets in n active war zone?
Another nonsense argument.

Quote:
Russia’s bombing campaign is killing record numbers of Ukrainian civilians

"Record" compared to what? Compared to Dresden WWII? Compared to Gaza? Compared to 2022? A meaningless statement.

You're so intent on being outraged you don't even care if you're right or not.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Monday, September 29, 2025 7:11 PM

Keep it real please

Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
What an evil selfish prick Putin is. Does anyone but him benefit from this? And now? After 2 years of covid crap? Kill thousands and crash the world economy so he can redraw a MAP?!?? What fcking dinosaur. I look forward to watching this blow up in his face.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-uk
raine.html

Word by Word and Between the Lines: A Close Look at Putin’s Speech

Explain this comrade signym.

tick tock

T

Russia in CRISIS: New 2026 Budget Is a Train wreck

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Monday, September 29, 2025 7:35 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Signym has always defended Putin saying he is bombing military targets. For years we have been watching him mostly target civilians.

If Putin was targeting "mostly" civilians, given the level of ordnance involved, hundreds of thousands of civilians would be dead by now. Just look at Palestine. Instead, it's about 14,000, according to the UN https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Number-of-civilians-killed-and-injured-in
-Ukraine-reaches-three-year-monthly-high-in-July-2025-UN-human-rights-monitors-say Yanno, I went thru this calculation with you before. I guess you prefer fiction over fact.

Take Mariupol as a case in point. Before the war, it was home to nearly 450,000 people. After months of encirclement and bombardment in 2022, city officials estimated that 25,000–75,000 civilians had been killed. Those numbers alone would eclipse the UN’s entire civilian death toll for the war, but they’re not reflected in official statistics. Mariupol is still under occupation. Independent investigators have not been allowed in. What happened there remains largely unrecorded.

https://kyivindependent.com/undercounted-and-erased-the-world-has-unde
restimated-how-many-civilians-russia-has-killed-in-ukraine/

Today, Russian propaganda exploits the UN’s undercount to deny war crimes, minimize Ukraine’s suffering, and subvert international resolve to hold the aggressor accountable.

In 1942, the Evening Star reported that 2 million Jews had already been killed in Nazi’s genocide — a figure based on incomplete, unverified sources. It was speculative by necessity, but the alternative was worse: to demand death certificates from the gas chambers or wait in silence for the proper count. The journalists who published it are not remembered as alarmists. They’re remembered for recognizing the scale of the crime as it was unfolding.
https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83045462/1942-11-25/ed-1/seq
-2/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, September 29, 2025 7:36 PM

Keep it real please

Guns Over Butter: Russia is Going Broke

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Tuesday, September 30, 2025 6:43 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Kremlin officials are trying to preemptively deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov questioned on September 29 whether it would be Ukrainian or American forces that would be launching the Tomahawk missiles into Russia and questioned who would be conducting the targeting for the Ukrainian strikes.[22] Peskov claimed that the Kremlin must determine which forces will be involved in the process before it can determine its response. Peskov attempted to downplay the effect Ukrainian Tomahawk strikes could have on the Ukrainian war effort, claiming that Tomahawk missiles will not change battlefield dynamics.[23]

First Deputy Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev claimed that US provisions of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine will be a new stage in the war, with the United States becoming a direct participant.[24] Zhuravlev threatened that Russia will respond by moving its Oreshnik ballistic missiles closer to the United States, possibly to Venezuela.

Chairperson of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building Alexei Pushkov claimed on September 29 that Ukraine would conduct “dangerous” provocations with US-provided Tomahawk missiles, directly involving the United States in the war.[25]

The Kremlin is attempting to portray US Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine, just as the Kremlin has previously employed similar tactics when the United States was discussing sending the Ukrainian Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), F-16 fighter jets, and Abrams tanks.[26] These efforts are part of Russia’s long-standing reflexive control campaign that aims to push the West to make decisions that actually benefit Russia.

Previous Ukrainian strikes using US-provided long-range weapons systems did not trigger an escalatory Russian reaction, and the West and Ukraine have repeatedly violated Russia’s alleged “red lines” in the past with no resulting escalation, as the Kremlin warned.[27]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-29-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, September 30, 2025 6:49 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Hungary’s Orban dismisses Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence

By Eric Malinowski | September 29, 2025, 01:48 PM

https://english.nv.ua/nation/hungary-s-orban-dismisses-ukraine-s-sover
eignty-50548879.html

Dismissing Kyiv’s reports of UAVs flying into Ukrainian airspace from Hungary, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban denied Ukraine being an independent or sovereign country, Hungarian outlet HVG.hu reported on Sept. 29.

“I believe my ministers, but let's say it [a drone] would have actually flown a few meters there, so what,” Orban said.

“Ukraine is not an independent country. Ukraine is not a sovereign country; Ukraine is financed by us, the West gives it funds, weapons.”

He insisted Hungary had no intention of attacking Ukraine and suggested Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should focus on the war in eastern Ukraine instead.

“Ukraine is not at war with Hungary; it is at war with Russia. It should be concerned with the drones on its eastern border,” the PM said.

Orban then questioned the value of Russian agents flying reconnaissance UAVs into western Ukraine from Hungarian territory, suggesting it makes little sense, given that the main theater of the war is in the east. The PM apparently has not considered that Moscow would benefit from scouting the locations of Ukraine’s munitions plants in Zakarpattya Oblast, built as far away as possible from the frontline.

On September 26, Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian troops had recently detected what were likely Hungarian drones near the Ukrainian-Hungarian border, which may have been conducting reconnaissance.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó responded harshly to Zelenskyy’s remarks about Hungarian drones in Ukraine, saying the Ukrainian president was “starting to lose his mind.”

Hungary’s Defense Ministry denied Zelenskyy’s statement, claiming the information “does not correspond to reality.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, October 1, 2025 6:22 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on September 30 that the EU will commit two billion euros (roughly $2.3 billion) to Ukraine for drone production.[12] Von der Leyen stated that this funding will allow Ukraine to scale up and use its full drone production capacity and also allow the EU to benefit from such technology.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 30 that the US is currently discussing the fifth and sixth weapons packages to Ukraine through NATO’s Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine.[13] Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s goal is to receive one billion dollars’ worth of weapons per month through PURL. NATO launched the PURL initiative in July 2025, and NATO countries, including the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and Canada, have already contributed more than two billion dollars to Ukraine through the program.[14]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-30-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, October 1, 2025 6:32 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

What The White House Seems To Be Hearing About Russian Power

Plus: Does Trump Have Hurt Feelings?

By Phillips P. Obrien | Oct 01, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/what-the-white-house-seems-to-b
e

Once again there has been a huge amount of furtive speculation about whether Trump might indeed pivot towards Ukraine and away from Russia. Its version 53 of this discussion so far, but this one is actually more interesting (though not because Trump now supports Ukraine—he does not and would still rather work with Putin). That being said—there are two important changes that are worthy of note. I have spent the last few days reaching out to people who know the situation far better than I and analyzing what Trump, Vance and Kellogg are saying about the state of Russia and the war, to try and gain some idea of what the White House might be hearing and thinking—to see how these changes are working themselves through the system.

Does Trump Have Hurt Feelings?

The first change is that Trump is actually hurt and frustrated that Putin has not given him some kind of support for a deal with Ukraine. I exchanged messages with my favorite senior Republican, who has done three anonymous interviews so far. (1, 2, 3 if you want to read them). This person, who has always been accurate when it comes to Trump and Ukraine, when asked to describe Trump’s thinking now, wrote, “He (Trump) is like a spurned lover at the moment.”

Trump might understand that his love for Putin is now unrequited.

Trump’s hurt feelings seem remarkably real. In his mind he has bent over backwards to protect Putin for 9 months. He blocked all new sanctions on Russia, starting loosening some on Belarus, stopped all military aid to Ukraine, slow walked the delivery of sold weapons, and even welcome Putin with a red-carpet reception on US soil.

More than this, Trump crafted a peace plan that offered Putin more than he could ever have achieved on the battlefield—including the ceding of not only conquered territory, but also some land still under Ukrainian control, US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea (a massive win for Russia) and the relaxation of sanctions against Russia (another massive win). And Trump did this all while giving the Russians a summer to throw everything at the Ukrainians and supposedly crack their army and society; the one that had “no cards”.

In other words, Trump did everything Putin could have asked (and more), and in exchange he wanted Putin to agree to something to give Trump the credit.

Remember, Trump desperately craves the Nobel Prize.

Putin, however decided that Trump was so much in his pocket, that he did not even have to offer the US president the most modest of crumbs from the table—and that is where we are now. One quick proviso, Trump’s hurt feeling could be instantly salved if Putin reached out and showed Trump the love and respect that Trump craves. He always has that option—and if the Russians pivot, things could change quickly.

What The White House Seems To Be Hearing About Russian Power

However, that was not all. At the same time that Trump was feeling more and more hurt about Putin’s lack of love, the White House was clearly getting intelligence about the state of the Russian Army and economy that was not in line with earlier reports and their expectations. I wrote a piece in January 2025, right before the inauguration, arguing that the best way to appeal to Trump would be for Ukraine and Ukraine supporters to stress the narrative that Russia can be defeated and Ukraine was stronger than he thought.

Now, at the time, Trump ended up very much in the strong-Russia/weak-Ukraine camp. And he stayed there through August. Recently, however, he and those around him have changed their tunes—in such ways that it seems very likely that the intelligence they are getting about Russia is considerably more gloomy about Russian performance than they were hearing. This really matters, because of Trump’s desperate need to be seen as a winner.

It might be best to start with VP JD Vance—arguably the most pro-Russian/anti-Ukraine person in the inner circle. It was interesting to see how Vance echoed many of the points that Trump made last week, and even supplied more detail. Most revealing was an interview to Fox News (all interviews at Fox are aimed at the base of the GOP—thus noteworthy for what they say and do not say). In this interview, in a notable turn of phrase, Vance talked about the Russians having to “accept reality” about the state of the war, the weakness of their economy and their lack of progress.

“The Russian economy is in shambles. The Russians are not gaining much on the battlefield.”

When it came to the Russian advances over the summer—Vance was damning.

“A lot of people are dying,…They don’t have a lot to show for it. How many more people are they willing to lose? How many more people are they willing to kill for very little, if any, gain in the military advantage on the ground there.”

Moreover, Vance was obviously aware that the Russians’ inability to even play along with Trump and pretend like they wanted to negotiate has gone over very badly with the president.

“What we have seen over the last couple weeks, the Russians have refused to sit down with any bilateral meetings with Ukrainians. They have refused to sit down with any trilateral meetings.”

Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine (who the Russians have shunned) just yesterday gave a speech in Warsaw which echoed exactly what Vance had been saying. Kellogg said the war was unwinnable for Russia, losses were high, and even specifically mentioned Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil production. First, the war was unwinnable for Putin.

I think that, probably, deep down he understands that he cannot win this. This is a losing battle for him, long-term. It won’t happen.”

Moreover he added.

“Russia is not winning this war. Russia has not crossed the Dnieper River, has not taken Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa. They have managed to take parts of Lugansk, Donetsk, and Zaporozhye.”

Then Kellogg specifically went on to mention the attacks on refineries, and put a figure on the damage the Ukrainians have inflicted so far. He said that the Ukrainians have been “hitting the refineries, which cut 20% of their (Russia’s) oil production down.”

The similarity between Vance and Kellogg is notable—and it is exactly, though perhaps with more detail, what Trump was saying earlier. In his “paper tiger” tweet that started all this speculation he mentioned all these issues—Russian failure on the battlefield, Russian economic weakness, and Ukrainian resilience. Here is that tweet again so you can see the points.

Image

The idea that US intelligence has started portraying Russia in an unfavorable light is further supported by the actions of the openly pro-Putin faction in MAGA. There was this exchange on Twitter between Kremlin/Putin insider and economic adviser Kirill Dmitriev, who publicized Mike Flynn’s call that US intelligence needed to be reformed to give more of a pro-Russian viewpoint!

In other words—they have heard that the intelligence Trump is now getting is becoming more skeptical about Putin and Russia, and they desperately want to change that.

So all in all, there is a good deal of evidence that the picture US intelligence is providing about Russia has changed notably lately and not in a way that supports the narrative that Russia is doing well economically or militarily.

Conclusion

As always, people need to dial down expectations. Trump has still not made any material changes in policy. He has not as of yet approved Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine (as I said this weekend—if he did that, it would be very important), he has not agreed to support harsher sanctions on Russia, and he has not agreed to $90 billion in military sales for Ukraine. All of that is being held out by others—but it has not yet happened.

Moreover, Trump himself has been quiet for the last few days—so might once again be going into his delay and protect Putin mode.

But the narrative/intelligence change is real and Trump does seem to have hurt feelings.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, October 1, 2025 6:41 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Three EU states spent more on Russian gas than helping Ukraine - Greenpeace report

By Oleksandra Bashchenko | Tue, September 30, 2025 - 14:46

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/three-eu-states-spent-more-on-russian-
gas-1759232777.html

France, Belgium, and Spain have spent more on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) than on financial aid to Ukraine, according to a Greenpeace report.

From 2022 until June 2025, these three countries spent €34.3 billion on LNG purchases. For comparison, their combined support for Ukraine amounted to €21.2 billion.
https://www.greenpeace.org/static/planet4-belgium-stateless/2025/09/0c
135a20-greenpeace-belgium_ru-us-lng-trap.pdf

According to Greenpeace, in the first half of 2025, the EU imported 12.8 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG. This is 67% more compared to the same period in 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

A large portion of LNG supplied to Europe comes from the Russian company Yamal LNG. According to the report, from 2022 to 2024, the company increased revenue by €34 billion and paid about €8 billion in taxes to the Russian budget.

According to Greenpeace, €8 billion could have been used to purchase 270,000 Shahed drones. In March 2025, about 1,000 such drones were used to attack Ukraine weekly.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, October 2, 2025 6:59 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The European Commission (EC) announced a $4.7 billion aid package for Ukraine using funds from frozen Russian assets. The EC announced on October 1 that its Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) loan program issued Ukraine its ninth tranche of funds worth four billion euros (roughly $4.7 billion) secured by proceeds from frozen Russian revenues.[38] The EC noted that its overall support to Ukraine is now approaching 178 billion euros (roughly $209 billion). EC President Ursula von der Leyen announced on September 30 that two billion euros (roughly $2.3 billion) of the earmarked funds are for drone production.[39]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-october-1-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, October 2, 2025 12:57 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Russian SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) assesses that Ukraine and Poland are planning a false flag on Polish infrastructure https://korybko.substack.com/p/assessing-the-veracity-of-svrs-report to drag NATO (i.e. USA) into a direct war with Russia. Apparently those mysterious "drone attacks" and fighter jet "incursions into territory" didn't do the trick.

General Kellogg is blasting the message that Ukraine is "winning the war" and that the Russian economy is "on the ropes".

The General is also pressing hard for Trump to sell long range (strategic), nuclear-capable Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany, who will buy them using stolen Russian funds, and give them to Ukraine.

This will be THE "game changing" weapon in the war.

Nobody has thought to ask: "General Kellogg, sir. If Ukraine is winning the war, why does 'the game' need to be changed?"

*****

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Azov (Nazi) Army is attempting to "pinch off" Russia's finger-like breakthrough northeast of Pokrovsk. Kiev has dedicated a large part of its forces to Pokrovsk, and one division drove a deep wedge into the base of that breakthrough. This success may be the source of Kellogg's happy-talk.
However, Kiev seems to have driven into it's own cauldron. Russia is beginning to encircle that wedge.

This isn't like checkers or chess, more like a game of Go.

And since Kiev has dedicated so much of its army to Pokrovsk, that leaves Russia free to advance elsewhere: Kupiansk, Lyman, Izyum, Konsyantinovka, and south of Pokrovsk towards the west and Zaparozhiy.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Friday, October 3, 2025 6:29 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia is trying to augment the population of occupied areas by incentivizing the massive resettlement of Russian expatriates to occupied areas, in part by redistributing stolen property to Russian citizens. ISW has long assessed that Russian efforts to seize and nationalize property in occupied Ukraine are part of the wider campaign to settle Russians in occupied areas and manipulate demographic realities to create the impression that occupied areas are inherently Russian.[12] Occupied Mariupol is at the center of this effort. Koltsov gave an interview to Kremlin newswire TASS on September 30 to outline his “master plan” for the development of the occupied city, which includes efforts to substantially increase its population.[13] Koltsov stated that his administration plans to increase the population from 330,000 to between 500,000 and 550,000 by 2028.[14] The United Nations estimated that around 350,000 people of the pre-war population of about 430,000 fled during Russia’s invasion of the city, and up to 20,000 civilians likely died during Russia’s siege on the city in 2022.[15] Koltsov’s claim that the current population is 330,000 is likely significantly inflated, and the only way that Russia could feasibly increase the population significantly within the next few years would be to resettle Mariupol with Russian citizens from Russia. Koltsov admitted that his administration is trying to attract investors to Mariupol to help with the population increase.[16] Russian officials have previously used the promise of cheap and modern housing, often seized and nationalized from Ukrainians, to attract Russians to move to occupied Ukraine.[17]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupatio
n-october-2-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, October 3, 2025 6:37 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Attacking An Oil Production System
Some Of The Nuts And Bolts--Starting With Refineries

By Phillips P. OBrien | Oct 03, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/attacking-an-oil-production-sys
tem

Its fascinating to see media outlets that normally obsess about small farm fields in the Donbas, waking up to the fact that the Ukrainians are systematically trying to disassemble Russia’s oil refining and distribution system. After mostly ignoring or dismissing these strategic attacks for years, indeed downplaying the benefits of ranged strike overall, it seems more and more people are catching on to what is happening. There was this quite interesting report yesterday in the BBC for instance.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx020k4056o

I thought I would provide some overview information of what matters in these attacks, today focusing on why refineries are being attacked—and what matters in refinery attacks.

Why Refineries?

Refineries are being attacked because they are large, stationery and have key components that are very difficult to replace. In other words, if they are not being defended in depth (and Russian air defense looks rather uneven) they present high value targets for air attack with a relatively high chance of success—if you have accurate systems.

A refinery’s core mission is to take crude oil and break it down into its constituent parts. It is therefore made up of large storage/blending tanks and then different units to break the crude oil down and capture it as a range of different fuels. They most important part of this process occurs in what is called the main “cracker”, which is a distillation unit/column (someone I spoke to also called it a “cracking tank”, but that is a phrase that is not widely used).

The “cracker” boils the crude oil, and starting and the lighter fuels come off at the lower temperatures. Here is a useful chart from the US Energy Information Agency.

The “cracker” is the single most vulnerable part of a refinery. Without a main cracker, a refinery is basically useless, as it cannot begin the process of breaking crude down (note—some large refineries have multiple crackers, or one large cracker and then smaller ones for the different fuel capture).

Here is a schematic of a how a refinery processes crude into its constituent parts, the cracker is the blue distillation column which launches the process. Just note, there are many different configurations for a refinery, but they all need to have a distillation column.

Not only is the cracker invaluable to the functioning of the refinery, its an extremely expensive piece of equipment (made up of lots of high grade, very costly metals), and exceedingly difficult to replace. Its not like you can go down to Home Depot and buy one and refineries do not typically keep spare ones around because of their excessive cost.

And from what I understand, refineries are often built around the cracker, so getting a damaged one out and installing a new one basically means reconstructing much of the refinery.

What the Ukrainians seem to be doing more and more recently (say since August) is damaging or even destroying these crackers. They are usually located in the interior of the refinery so require some accuracy to hit—but that seems to be what the Ukrainians are trying to do (and looking at the drop of Russian refinery production—they are doing with some success).

Here is a picture of the Yaroslavl refinery which was hit in Russia two days ago—the fire and smoke are coming from the interior of the refinery—which is what the Ukrainians want.

If you contrast this attack with what the Ukrainians were doing earlier in the year (below picture is from an attack in February) they are definitely being more precise.
A photo from Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz's Telegram channel shows oil tanks on fire after a drone attack in Klintsy, Russia.

It seems many of the earlier attacks hit the storage or blending tanks where crude or refined oils were being stored—such as those above. Now these tanks burn impressively and shoot flames high in the sky—but they are (or so I have been told) not that difficult to replace and do not represent a long-term threat to the functioning of the refinery. The oil, for instance, can be stored in pipelines and the like.

And refineries have lots of these tanks, often ringing the cracker, storing the fuels in their different stages. Here is a schematic of a refinery showing a possible layout.

So it might have been that many of the earlier pictures of refineries burning with massive flames came from attacks which did not hit the vital distillation process but actually hit different storage tanks.

Now the attacks are definitely hitting Russian refining capacity in depth. The Russian state has banned the sale of refined oil until the end of the year, moreover the Russians are talking about buying a great deal of refined oil from China and other states (which might have been Russian crude exported to Asia in the first place).

In other words, the Russians now seem to lack the functioning refining capacity to provide refined fuels to their own economy at present.

Now, that does not mean Russia is not making money from its oil. It still can, and is, exporting a great deal of unrefined, crude oil through its shadow fleet. That is actually what states like China, India and Turkey are doing—buying Russian crude in large quantities and refining it themselves. So to shut down all sources of income, the Ukrainians would have to go after the pipelines, pumping systems and port infrastructure that handles crude exports.

There are signs that they are starting to do this—so I will definitely write more about that in the future. But for now, I thought you might find this description of refinery attacks and what they can accomplish (and what they cannot accomplish) useful.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, October 3, 2025 6:41 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russia’s biggest tank division is heading straight for Zaporizhzhia and its 700,000 residents

Unnoticed by the wider world, the Russian army is steadily marching west through south Donetsk, toward a crucial regional center

By David Axe | Oct 2, 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/02/south-donetsk/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, October 3, 2025 9:42 AM

#Rootin4Putin

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Saturday, October 4, 2025 8:07 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
#Rootin4Putin

Trump also is rooting for Putin. Putin’s spokesmen routinely claim Alaska is part of Russia and should be returned, forcefully. In August, Trump visited Putin in Russia’s Alaska to discuss a war of aggression that Putin started without inviting anyone representing the country that Putin invaded. That is just about as far as a foreign-policy fantasy can go.

Trump has accepted Putin’s fantasies. Trump had already conceded the more fundamental issues. He does not speak of justice for Russian war criminals or of the reparations Russia owes. He grants that Russia can determine Ukraine's and America's foreign policy on the crucial point of NATO membership. And he accepts that Russia's invasions should lead not only to de facto but also de jure changes in sovereign control over territory.

Trump’s accepting that an invasion can legally change borders undoes the world order. Trump is granting Russia the right to decide the other countries' foreign policy encourages further aggression. Trump abandoning the obvious legal and historical responses to criminal wars of aggression — reparations and trials — encourages war in general.

Trump speaks loudly and carries a small stick. The notion that words alone can do the trick has led Trump to the position that Putin’s words matter, and so he had to go to Alaska for a "listening exercise." Trump’s career has been full of listening to Putin and then repeating what Putin says.

https://kyivindependent.com/trumps-alaska-folly/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, October 4, 2025 8:09 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
#Rootin4Putin

Russia Will Save Humanity By Defeating The West, Starting With Ukraine, Then Europe

Putin Scientist Says West Using LGBT Agenda and Viruses to Kill Humanity

By James Bickerton | Oct 03, 2025 at 04:50 PM EDT

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-scientist-west-using-lgbt-agenda-viruse
s-kill-humanity-10827452

Mikhail Kovalchuk, a prominent Russian scientist and ally of President Vladimir Putin, has argued Western elites are planning to wipe out most of the Earth’s population using “the LGBT agenda” and eventually a virus, leaving just them and a class of robot servants.

Kovalchuk, who heads Russia’s Kurchatov nuclear research institute, made the claim during a recent address to the Forum of Class Teachers, a state-backed group of Russian educationalists, according to The Times of London.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment on Friday via email outside of regular office hours.

Why It Matters

Tensions between Russia and the West exploded after Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, sparking the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.

According to recent media reports, the Trump administration is considering selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, powerful weapons that could range Moscow, sparking fury from Russian authorities.

Kovalchuk’s remarks show the depth of anti-Western feeling and sympathy for conspiracy theories within the Russian ruling elite.

What To Know

During his address to the Forum of Class Teachers, Kovalchuk reportedly said Western elites had concluded “that a huge number of people are becoming unnecessary” and consequently “have begun to prepare for a population reduction.”

He said this was currently being pushed via “the LGBT agenda” and “the child-free family” and predicted that “in a generation or two” it will intensify with most humans “eliminated with biological weapons.”

According to The Times of London, Kovalchuk “has been described as one of Putin’s close friends” with his younger brother, Yury, reported to have spent lockdown with the Russian president.

In November 2023, the Russian Supreme Court banned what it called “the international LGBT public movement,” which it concluded was an extremist organization.

The previous December, Putin signed a law making it illegal for anyone in Russia to promote same-sex relationships or to argue that non-heterosexual couplings are “normal.”

Russia banned what it called “childfree propaganda” in November 2024 as the country struggles with a falling birthrate.

What People Are Saying

Russian scientist Mikhail Kovalchuk, at the Forum of Class Teachers: “The West…understands that a huge number of people are becoming unnecessary. They have begun to prepare for a population reduction. They introduced the LGBT agenda, and for those who didn’t go along with it, they offered a second option, the child-free family. It’s working brilliantly. In a generation or two, there’ll be no continuation of their bloodlines. Only a small elite, the ones they actually need, will remain.

“As for the rest, the people they don’t even see as human, they’ll be eliminated with biological weapons. A virus or something like that with a 90 percent mortality rate will come along and mow them down.”

What Happens Next

Kovalchuk's comments show the Russian elite is likely to remain deeply anti-Western and sympathetic toward conspiracy theories for the foreseeable future.

This hostility could increase further if President Donald Trump authorizes the sale of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. In August, Trump met Putin in Alaska, but the Russian leader has repeatedly refused American and European calls for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, October 4, 2025 8:49 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
#Rootin4Putin

Inside Ukraine's fight to stop Russia near Kupiansk as war evolves

by Francis Farrell, Nick Allard, Jason Blevins • Oct 4, 2025

https://kyivindependent.com/video/?slug=inside-ukraines-fight-to-stop-
russia-near-kupiansk-as-war-evolves

The city of Kupiansk has become a focal point of Russia’s renewed offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. After crossing the Oskil River, Russian forces have begun infiltrating Ukrainian lines in small assault groups, while the battlefield becomes increasingly dominated by swarming drones.

Start at 13 minutes

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Saturday, October 4, 2025 11:26 AM

#Rootin4Putin

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Saturday, October 4, 2025 2:16 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
SECOND:

Inside Ukraine's fight to stop Russia near Kupiansk as war evolves

by Francis Farrell, Nick Allard, Jason Blevins • Oct 4, 2025

The city of Kupiansk has become a focal point of Russia’s renewed offensive in Kharkiv Oblast.

https://kyivindependent.com/video/?slug=inside-ukraines-fight-to-stop-
russia-near-kupiansk-as-war-evolves

Kupiansk is lost. Russians are sitting on all the supply lines, and 3/4 surround the city while Ukrainian troops in northern Kupiansk are utterly surrounded.

Furthermore, Kupiansk isn't the main Russian focal point. In fact, IDK if Russia has predetermined focal points. I think they advance wherever Ukrainian lines are weakest, aim for important supply lines, and attack using distance weapons wherever Ukrainian troops and materiel are concentrated.

Destroying the enemy's army is the goal, not taking territory.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Saturday, October 4, 2025 2:49 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Has Russia developed an EMP weapon?

Dashcam and security videos from a recent strike on Dnipro show all of the lights going out BEFORE bright blue flashes.

Quote:
I have credible information with video evidence, that Russia has just tested their new Plasma Burst EMP weapon, again in Dnipro in the night from October 1st to 2nd. These videos are all random dash cam captures and one fixed-webcam monitoring Dnipro. So they are genuine videos. I believe the blackout was caused by the EMP disrupting electric infrastructure. However it is unclear if other missiles and drones were also involved in damaging infrastructure. Upon a high energy pulse within our atmosphere, such force tends to tear Nitrogen and Oxygen Molecules apart. Then, upon recombining to N2 and O2 Molecules (Molecular Recombination), they emit radiation in the blue to ultra violet spectrum. That’s exactly why we perceive lightning as blueish.

YOU CAN WATCH THE VIDEOS HERE
https://sonar21.com/did-russia-just-test-a-new-weapon-in-dneipropetrov
sk/

I would say that the attack- whatever it was- was probably on a main power distribution center, with limited range, bc if an EMP had wide effect cars and video cams would have also stopped working.

Another thing that produces bright flashes like that are transformers exploding. Since there were actually multiple flashes, maybe it was a conventional attack that caused Dnipro's power grid to fail successively and catastrophically.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Sunday, October 5, 2025 7:00 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Land War Is Hardening

In September 2025, according to the analysts at Deep State, Russian advances halved from August—even though attacks remained pretty similar.
See the Image at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-153-the-land-war
-is

Moreover, Russian advances slowed markedly in the second half of the month, with them taking only 30 sq km in the last ten days of September according to the Institute for the Study of War.

The changes in the battle line are so relatively small that seeing them on a map is not easy. Here is the most up to date Deep State map (from October 4—which shows almost no change from September 30 it needs to be stressed).

And here is the same exact map on 1 September 2025.

We have now had two years of almost constant Russian offensives, of the Russians raising mass formations (say 30,000 new soldiers a month) and expending them on the battlefield, and their ability to change the dynamic there seems if anything to be decreasing. Its a sign that the land war is getting, if anything, more horrific and transparent. Spotting soldiers and equipment is becoming easier as more and more drones survey the field and the range of fibre-optic, FPV drones lengthens. As Andriy Zagorodnyuk wrote in an article I have referred to a few times, the “kill-zone” of the land war is, if anything growing. Unless one side or the other gains a technical or mass adaptation advantage, its hard to see this changing.

This reality is one of the reasons I have tried to caution people against listening too much to the voices that are clamoring for Ukraine to draft all its young men and send them to the front. The land war is a charnel house, and having more and more forces there will lead to more slaughter more than anything else. If the Ukrainians can stop the Russians with machines, that is what they should prioritize.

It even makes me a little queasy to hear Ukrainian talk about a counter offensive. Zelensky has said this a number of time over the last few weeks. It could be that the counter offensive is a series of small, focussed counterattacks to provide Ukraine a better defensive line to inflict losses on Russia—or indeed that he is referring to the operation to cut off the Russia infiltration north of Pokrovsk (which has been a Russian debacle). If it is actually a sign that Ukraine is going to throw large forces into a major offensive, however, I sincerely hope they have a plan to change the technological dynamic.

For now the land war seems to be hardening.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, October 5, 2025 7:11 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Has Trump’s Rhetorical Change Meant Anything Concrete?

By Phillips P. Obrien | Oct 05, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-153-the-land-war
-is

It has now been almost two weeks since Trump made his verbal pivot about the war. The pivot was based on Trump’s hurt feelings about Putin not loving him in the morning and the fact that Russia was not doing as well as he expected.

At that time, people let their imaginations run away into fantasies. There was talk about the US handing over Tomahawk missiles, or even JASSMs to Ukraine, of the US and Ukraine signing a $90 billion arms deal, of the US helping Ukraine win the war.

And guess what—Trump has now gone silent on the issue for a week. The stories are now leaking that the Tomahawks are not on their way, and no new arms deal has been announced. And even if a deal is announced soon—it would take many months before the first weapons started to appear.

The one report (which people have drastically overrated) was that the Administration had authorized some intelligence sharing to aid Ukrainian ranged strike. It was the typical story that the Trump administration leaks when they want to seem to be supportive of Ukraine. No specifics were mentioned, it seems that actually the process for sharing the intelligence is has not been specified, and, of course, no new weapons were part of the deal.

In other words, at best this seems to be the Trump administration taking the position of the Biden administration. But actually it means nothing, as the DOD still seems to have veto over what Ukraine gets—which was de facto the position before this supposed change.

Moreover—its hard to see how much value US intelligence would bring here. The Ukrainians have already shown that they have a strong grasp of the Russian energy sector and started disassembling it themselves.

This whole thing smells like an attempt of the Trump administration to put itself in line to claim credit for Ukrainian success, without actually helping Ukraine.

So far, it is hard to find one concrete policy change that has emerged from the pivot. And guess who understands that? Vladimir Putin does. It was fascinating to see how the Russian dictator openly stated that the US would not send Tomahawks to Ukraine; as if he knew. This is how the New York Times, reported Putin’s remarks.

Mr. Putin, in an annual appearance at a Russian foreign-policy conference on Thursday, sought to project confidence that, in the end, Mr. Trump would decide against providing the missiles to Ukraine. He described the American president as someone who “loves to shock a little” but who also “knows how to listen.”

If the United States did send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, Mr. Putin said, the move would bring about “a qualitatively new stage of escalation.” But he went on to predict that Mr. Trump would eventually reject Ukraine’s request in part because of the United States’ inward turn under the Trump administration.

People need to face reality. Trump does not want to help Ukraine and he does not want to break with Putin. He desperately wants to work with Putin, he just also wants Putin’s love and respect (and Putin was careful to lather Trump with praise this week). That is where we are.

Hoping Trump will fundamentally change that policy is a massive risk and wastes time. Stop it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, October 5, 2025 10:34 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

The Tomahawk missile's land- launching installations are large and complex, not suitable for Ukraine as they take too long to construct and are too visible. The mobile land launchers barely exist. The USA CAN'T share with Ukraine or sell to the EU what doesn't exist.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Sunday, October 5, 2025 11:36 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
The Tomahawk missile's land- launching installations are large and complex, not suitable for Ukraine as they take too long to construct and are too visible. The mobile land launchers barely exist. The USA CAN'T share with Ukraine or sell to the EU what doesn't exist.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

The difficulties

By Yuliia Taradiuk, Chris York | September 30, 2025 6:50 PM

https://kyivindependent.com/as-us-mulls-tomahawks-for-ukraine-heres-ho
w-they-could-be-used-against-russia/

Even if the U.S. greenlights Tomahawks for Ukraine, one major question remains.

Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), told the Guardian on July 15 that Tomahawks "are not easy to use."

"The main launch platforms are combat ships or strategic bombers. We don’t have any strategic bomber aircraft," Skibitskyi said.

This lack of a launch platform would mean the U.S. would also have to provide one.

"Presumably they would need to come with Typhon launcher systems," Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo who specializes in missile technology, told the Kyiv Independent.

Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, the Typhon is a mobile launcher designed to fire several different missile types including Tomahawk.

Tomahawk alternatives

As discussions around long-range Western weapons continue, other systems may be more feasible for Ukraine in the near term.

"When we think about potential weapons the U.S. could provide to Ukraine with longer range than ATACMS, we should look at, for instance, the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM)," Borsari said.

"It has a range of roughly 1,000 kilometers, it’s very powerful, and it could be a good solution for Ukraine — and much easier to integrate into Ukrainian aircraft compared to the Tomahawk."

And there is another option on the horizon — Germany will provide Ukraine with new long-range missiles "very shortly, very soon," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on July 17, without mentioning the name of the weapons being supplied.

"Ukraine will be much better positioned and use these systems and get the support of us with regard to those systems in the weeks and months to come," Merz said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, October 5, 2025 12:31 PM

Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Monday, October 6, 2025 6:36 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Fuck Ukraine.

Ukraine is almost ready to do the same to Russia:

There are at least 1,945 Russian military objects within range of the 2,500-kilometer variant Tomahawk and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-kilometer variant. Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas that sustain and support Russia’s frontline operations.[4] Ukraine has reportedly launched mass production of its new, domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a 3,000-kilometer range and 1,150-kilogram warhead, but the system remains unproven, and Ukraine will need time to scale up production.[5]

Building 1,945 missiles will take time, but the big ka-boom is coming for Russia!

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-october-5-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, October 6, 2025 11:12 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Fuck Ukraine.
Ukraine is almost ready to do the same to Russia:

I've heard that for years now.

*yawn*

If nobody was supporting Ukraine, that would have been over in 3 days.

You're lucky Putin isn't Muslim, or he would have nuked the entire planet 3 times already.

--------------------------------------------------

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Monday, October 6, 2025 4:11 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin allies changing tune on Ukraine war

Kremlin loyalists are beginning to concede that Russia's war in Ukraine is faltering, with a once-triumphant narrative collapsing after over three years of fighting

By Zahra Khaliq, Gavin Quinn | 13:41 ET, Mon, Oct 6, 2025

https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/186159/top-putin-allies-ch
anging-tune-ukraine-war-pressure-mounts-russia

Fractures are emerging on Russia's government-controlled television, where a panelist openly questioned the Defense Ministry's assertions regarding devastating Ukrainian casualties.

"With the outbreak of hostilities, the Ukrainian army went up to 800,000 people. Then it increased by somewhere near 100,000-120,000 per year. Thus, there can be no 1,700,000-2,000,000 losses because, in that case, the Ukrainian army simply would not exist," the guest said.

The host then challenged him about whether he believed the Russian Defense Ministry was being dishonest, which would constitute a criminal offense in wartime Russia.

The guest said: "Not only ours. It is a huge mistake to underestimate the Ukrainian army".

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, October 6, 2025 6:29 PM

Yeah. Sure. Whatever. *yawn*

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 6:51 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Kremlin continues to deny responsibility for recent drone incursions into NATO airspace. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used his English-language Telegram account on October 6 to deflect blame away from Russia for recent drone incursions in European airspace, including by claiming that the drones could have been a Ukrainian provocation.[13] Medvedev claimed that the reason for the incursions “is not the point.” Medvedev threateningly claimed, rather, that the point is for Europeans to “get a taste of what the danger of war really means” and to feel their “imminent and excruciating end closing in.” Medvedev claimed that French President Emmanuel Macron and Merz are “scoring political points on blood” and that Europeans might “rip the heads off” of Macron and Merz if Europeans were to “understand what war means.”[14]

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on October 6 that statements from European Union (EU) leaders about Russian involvement in the recent drone overflights are “sweeping and unfounded” and called on European leaders to “broaden their horizons” rather than attributing all drone sightings to Russia.[15] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko implied on October 6 that Europeans are behind the latest drone incursions, claiming that drones in EU airspace aim to increase European “military psychosis” and force European parliaments to increase military spending.[16]

Medvedev’s, Peskov’s, and Grushko’s claims are part of the Kremlin’s wider effort to deny and downplay the threat that Russia poses to Europe in order to dissuade European states from continuing their efforts to bolster their own defenses. ISW continues to assess that Russia is pursuing a multipronged informational effort to deter the West from defending against hostile Russian actions and to set conditions for a potential future conflict with NATO.[17]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-october-6-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 6:53 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

According to captured Russian documents, nearly 87,000 Russian troops died between January and September this year as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine ground toward its fifth year. Another 160,000 were wounded, many badly—and 34,000 went missing, most of whom are probably dead.
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1975125211914834145

That’s more than 30,000 casualties a month, or 1,000 a day. Roughly in line with official Ukrainian estimates that some observers wrongly insisted were inflated.

Unsurprisingly, the three main field armies trying to capture the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine suffered the most. The Center Grouping of Forces—which oversees the 2nd, 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies among other formations—lost around 104,000 men and likely a few women, at least 47,000 of whom are dead.
https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/1975194087394574564

It’s unclear how many Ukrainian troops have died. Between February 2022 and June 2025, the Ukrainian armed forces have lost as many as 100,000 men and women killed in action, for a fatality rate of 2,500 a month.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/04/europe/russia-war-casualties-1-million-
ukraine-intl

Assuming three Ukrainians were wounded for every one that died—a higher wounded-to-killed ratio than the attacking Russians suffered—Ukraine’s total casualties may have approached 10,000 a month. That’s consistent with Russia having a significant manpower advantage in most sectors.

https://www.trenchart.us/p/die-in-droves-100000-russians-killed

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 7:12 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Does Europe Really Want to Save Itself?
We will know Sooner Than Many Understand.
Phillips P. OBrien
Oct 07, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/does-europe-really-want-to-save
-itself

Hello All

The election in Czechia four days ago and political developments in France yesterday (which might herald a new National Assembly election) have triggered a new round of pessimistic soul-searching. That soul-searching is on the question whether people really do want to save and protect the good things in their societies? One thing I have learned about myself over the last three and a half years of writing pieces of analysis is that my greatest errors almost always emerge from optimism. When I err towards an optimistic take on human nature or decision making (“The USA will understand the need to give Ukraine ranged weapons”, or, “Kamala Harris can win because there is no way that a majority of Americans will support Trump after Jan 6”)—I make my biggest miscalculations. Otoh, when I let my pessimistic side free rein (“Trump will do nothing meaningful for Ukraine”, etc) I tend to be more accurate than I would like to be.

And this pessimism-optimism dialectic is well and truly working overtime when it comes to European states. Yes, European states are starting to do more for Ukraine and they are (or some of them are) starting to take their defense responsibilities more seriously. There are even bat squeaks of independent strategic thinking happening below the surface. And yet, everything has taken so long and has so much further to go—and still to this day too many European leaders remain bewitched by US strategic dominance.

Of course, this kind of thinking is based on the idea that Europeans, in the end, actually do want to save what they have. What if they do not? What if Europeans actually are far more receptive to the idea of abandoning Ukraine and working with a Putin-ruled Russia than many assume? If that is true, the whole fabric of Europe could unwind in the coming years—spectacularly.

The most unnerving piece of evidence against this hopeful thought is that three and half years after the Russian full-scale invasion, with its horrors, war crimes and depredations against Europeans, the power of European parties that support the Russian narrative are growing, not lessening. They are taking more political power in some states and in the three largest European states they are now leading the polls.

The growth of what might be called Russian-supporting, Russian-funded, Russia-aligned governments across Europe has been accelerating. Here is a map which has those governments who are Russian influenced (red) and where the leading party heading into their next election is sympathetic to Russia (burnt orange). I have also added the latest possible date for the next general elections in the burnt orange countries (note, these elections could come sooner—such as France). The Netherlands, btw, will have an election very soon.

Of course the devastating thing is the success of populist-right wing parties that have been influenced by Russia in the three largest and most powerful European states; Germany (AFD), France (RN-the old National Front) and the UK (Reform).

Moreover, in Germany’s case there has also been a noticeable rise by a left-wing party (group of parties) which if not as openly pro-Putin, at least wants to reduce support for Ukraine. The rise in support for Russian-supporting parties in Germany is obvious. Not only has the AFD taken an extremely pro-Putin line, it has been rumored that it, and the BSW on the populist left, has received significant Russian funding (at least for some of its members).

Indeed, if you add Die Linke, which opposes arms deliveries to Ukraine, you have a very worrying growth of parties which support a Putin narrative.

The situation in France is no better. If there is an election now the party with a consistent and large lead is the old National Front of Marine Le Pen (which has received millions in loans from Russia in the past). At least in this case, the New National Front, says it wants to continue support for Ukraine.

The United Kingdom is the most extreme in terms of change. While supporting Ukraine had been pretty consensual up until last year, the surge in Reform support shows something else entirely.

Reform has had, shall we say, a rather murky past with Russian influence. The former Welsh leader of Reform was just convicted of being a paid Russian agent. And Reform’s guiding figure, Nigel Farage, has what can only be called a very worrying record when it comes to support for Putin. He has spoken in the past of his admiration for the Russian dictator and has been a regular spreader of Kremlin narratives.

If God forbid one, or even two of Europe’s most powerful states ends up being taken over by a pro-Russian force, the impact on the whole continent could be devastating. We have already seen how states like Hungary and Slovakia have been an impediment to supporting Ukraine—imagine if they were joined by a France, a Germany or a United Kingdom.

The pressure for European disunity would grow—which is exactly what Putin called for two days ago.

So here we are. Three and a half years after Bucha, after the shooting of prisoners, the abduction of children, and the nightly terror attacks on civilians, the political power of the Russian state which is doing these acts is growing in Europe, not declining. That alone should prompt the question.

Does Europe Really Want To Save Itself?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 7:35 AM

#Rootin4Putin

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 11:12 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Does Europe Really Want to Save Itself?
We will know Sooner Than Many Understand.
Phillips P. OBrien
Oct 07, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/does-europe-really-want-to-save
-itself

Hello All

The election in Czechia four days ago and political developments in France yesterday (which might herald a new National Assembly election) have triggered a new round of pessimistic soul-searching. That soul-searching is on the question whether people really do want to save and protect the good things in their societies?

Cutting out all the blah blah blah ...

What are all the "good things" in European societies?, Phillips?

I would argue:

A rich cultural heritage of music, architecture, literature, philosophy, religion, and languages
An ethos that celebrates individual civic freedoms like free thought, free expression, free elections
A society that looks after its members with things like health care and education

But what I see are political elites circling the drain, hemorrhaging their best qualities into unfettered immigration, globalism, and corrupt militarism.

Romania: elections, literally cancelled, and a big re-do ordered bc the "wrong" candidate won
France: ruled over by a "little Napolean" who refuses to give up power with only 10% support
Britain, and "never here" Kier, who keeps introducing increasingly autocratic restrictions on speech, where criminals go free but people who speak their minds are jailed. And where digital ID is just around the corner. (Will your bar code be tattooed on your arm?)
Moldova, where elections are manipulated to ignore the will of the people
Germany, where AfD candidates mysteriously die off just before elections, and the popular party itself is on the verge of being banned.
Georgia, the "next front" against Russia, subject to repeated "regime change" demonstrations despite against the popular vote
National elite after national elite, almost all in massive denial about the crime, social disruption, and fiscal burden, of uncontrolled immigration.

Where most nations are shrinking. Contracting economically over an ideological fit of pique on energy sources.

Yep, Europe is circling the drain, but not like idiot Phillips thinks.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 11:40 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Putin threatens Europe with 'significant' response if it continues to arm and support Kyiv

Accusing European nations of fueling the conflict in Ukraine, blocking its resolution, and encouraging "a constant escalation," Putin made a point of insisting that he was not responsible for starting the war. "We ourselves have never initiated a military confrontation," he stated confidently, saying he was closely monitoring the "militarization" of the continent. According to Putin, Europeans are the only ones blaming him for the ongoing hostilities. "So far, unfortunately, it has not been possible to stop the fighting. The responsibility (...) falls on a minority, primarily Europe, which keeps aggravating the conflict," he insisted.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/10/03/putin-threa
tens-europe-with-significant-response-if-it-continues-to-arm-and-support-kyiv_6746047_4.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 11:42 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Putin threatens Europe with 'significant' response if it continues to arm and support Kyiv

Good for him. Fuck the EU.

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Tuesday, October 7, 2025 12:15 PM