Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Saturday, September 20, 2025 07:37
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Wednesday, September 17, 2025 7:34 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine continues to demonstrate its adeptness at innovating and fielding drones with increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) technology while maintaining accessible costs, significantly augmenting Ukrainian drone effectiveness.

Ukrainian outlet United24 Media reported on September 15 that Ukrainian drone producer Vyriy and Ukrainian defense technology company The Fourth Law (TFL) are launching mass production of Vyriy-10 first-person view (FPV) drones.[17] United24 Media reported that Vyriy equipped the Vyriy-10 drones with TFL’s TFL-1 terminal guidance module, an advanced AI guidance system that will enable drone operators to execute more precise strikes and navigate environments with pervasive electronic warfare (EW).

TFL Head Yaroslav Azhnyuk stated that several Ukrainian units have leveraged the modified Vyriy-10 drones to increase drone strike effectiveness by two to four times. United24 Media noted that the drones cost approximately $448, making it only slightly more expensive than traditional Ukrainian-made FPV drones.

The integration of Ukrainian drones with AI guidance systems represents a significant technological advancement that will enable Ukrainian drone operators to conduct more accurate strikes and bypass frontline Russian EW to strike targets in the Russian near rear.[18]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-16-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, September 17, 2025 7:47 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Trump administration's first U.S. weapons aid packages for Ukraine have been approved and could soon ship as Washington resumes sending arms to Kyiv.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-administratio
n-clears-first-ukraine-arms-aid-paid-by-allies-sources-say-2025-09-16/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, September 18, 2025 8:52 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

'The Largest Battle of the Entire War' Is About to Begin in Eastern Ukraine

Russian and Ukrainian forces surge toward Pokrovsk

https://www.trenchart.us/p/the-largest-battle-of-the-entire

Sep 17, 2025

After weeks of reinforcement on both side, there are a lot of troops, drones, vehicles and artillery packed into the villages and forests around the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

For six weeks since a major incursion by a Russian motor rifle brigade, chaotic fighting has raged all along the 50-mile-long no-man’s-land threading from Pokrovsk’s southern neighborhoods east and north toward the villages of Rodynske and Dobropillya, which control one of the two main supply lines into Pokrovsk.

But the main fight looms as Russia finishes a theater-wide reshuffling of forces. “On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops concentrate all available forces, including those from Kursk Oblast [in western Russia] and operational reserves,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported.

“Russia has been moving forces into position in Pokrovsk for weeks/months at this point,” American analyst Andrew Perpetua noted. “They are preparing for what could end up being the largest battle of the entire war.”

With 150,000 Russians taking up positions opposite 50,000 or more dug-in Ukrainians, the bloodletting could be staggering. And the implications for the 43-month wider war could be profound. “You should not misread what is going on,” Perpetua stressed.

For a year and a half since capturing the ruins of Avdiivka just outside Donetsk city, a clutch of Russian field armies has been marching toward Pokrovsk, 25 miles to the west. Pokrovsk, a now nearly lifeless mining town, is the last major urban stronghold between the attacking Russians and the “fortress belt” of urban settlement stretching from Kramatorsk to Sloviansk, 20 miles north of Pokrovsk.

If Pokrovsk falls, the Russians should be able to lay siege to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. If those two cities fall, all of Donetsk Oblast—and thus all of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region—will almost certainly come under Russian control, more than 11 years after Russia first invaded Ukraine.

The stakes are enormous as both sides position for a clash they’ve known, for more than a year, was inevitable. The first major Russian assault, which could see Russian field armies deploy large numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles for the first time this year, could kick off “any day now,” Perpetua warned.

Tension & inaction

One Ukrainian observer, the drone operator Kriegsforscher, recently relayed intelligence indicating that a large formation of Russian marine regiments and brigades, well-equipped with armored vehicles, was wary of the huge number of tiny explosive drones Ukraine has stockpiled for the Pokrovsk battle.

If that’s true, the marines may be hoping that Russia’s own drone teams can suppress Ukraine’s drone teams in the coming weeks.

There may be other explanations for the relative calm before the coming storm around Pokrovsk. Perpetua pointed to large-scale clashes around Lyman, just north of Sloviansk. “I personally believe they [the Russians] are waiting for Lyman to be decided,” Perpetua wrote.

It’s also possible the Russians are waiting for the weather to change, Perpetua proposed. But the fall mud may actually complicate large-scale vehicle deployments. Moreover, the forests at Pokrovsk will offer less and less concealment to Russian forces as their leaves fall, Kriegsforscher pointed out.

The last and potentially best explanation for the Russians’ weird inaction around Pokrovsk is that their forces in the sector are tired and disorganized. The Center for Defense Strategies, which has long predicted Pokrovsk would fall this year, has nevertheless concluded that the Russian field armies responsible for capturing the city are much weaker than they look.

“Military units transferred to Dobropillya from Toretsk [30 miles to the east], not having had time to restore their combat capability, are not able to significantly influence Ukrainian defense forces, who possess the initiative here,” CDS explained.

Meanwhile, the five Russian marine regiments and brigades massed east of Pokrovsk—the ones whose commanders are allegedly spooked by Ukraine’s drone—were “hastily transferred” from Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine, CDS pointed out.

The weary and unprepared Russian units are too densely packed and uncoordinated to efficiently deploy their artillery, CDS claimed. “The strike aviation of the Russian aerospace forces partially tries to perform its role but cannot replace it completely.”

If the delay in battle for Pokrovsk is the result of dysfunction in Russian headquarters, Russian troops should worry even more than usual. The order to attack will eventually come—whether or not Russian drones and artillery are ready to support that attack.

Ukrainian brigades in and around Pokrovsk have “been doing nothing but preparing for this [battle] for the past year,” Perpetua wrote. If the Russians roll in without adequate support, they’re probably going to die in large numbers—and squander hard-to-replace vehicles they’ve been saving up for the better part of a year.

Roy, a Canadian drone expert, expected this all along. “All the armored Russian vehicles apparently concentrating near Pokrovsk will be destroyed by Ukrainian [first-person-view drones] and drone-dropped anti-tank land mines, if the Russians are actually foolish enough to assault,” he predicted.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, September 18, 2025 9:11 AM

THG

Keep it real please

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I watched an extended video of drone warfare from the Russian side.

Of course you did comrade. Try watching an extended video of drone warfare for the Ukrainian side.

T

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Friday, September 19, 2025 6:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Why Putin Can’t Afford to Let Ukraine Prosper

A free and thriving Ukraine would make it undeniable that Putin’s rule has been an economic disaster for Russia.

By Michael Tory | Sept. 18, 2025 10:08 am ET

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-putin-can-t-afford-to-let-ukr
aine-prosper/ar-AA1MPiw3
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/why-putin-cant-afford-to-let-ukraine-
prosper-9854e35e

Since 1990, the former Russian satellites that have joined the European Union have generated an almost 10-fold average increase in national GDP. By contrast, the national GDP of Russia itself and the non-EU countries on its western border have grown by just a factor of four over that same period.

As a result, in a single generation, the combined economic weight of the countries that escaped Russia’s orbit now exceeds that of Russia itself, a stunning reversal of fortunes. As experience shows, such disparate economic performance among nations intimately linked by history and geography almost invariably leads to resentment.

In 1990, the Russian Federation’s GDP was twice the combined GDP of the new EU countries ($500 billion versus about $250 billion). Today the combined GDP of the new EU countries is $2.4 trillion compared with $2.2 trillion for Russia, a gap in prosperity that grows wider with each passing year. It is a far cry from Putin’s forecast in 2001 that Russia would enjoy such robust economic growth that, by 2020, it would be the world’s fifth-largest economy. It is 11th today.

Looking at the region’s map, beginning where Russia meets Finland and moving down through the Baltics, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, we arrive at the only incomplete segment of the EU border with Russia: the four former Soviet republics of Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and, of course, Ukraine. Ukraine has more people, landmass and GDP than the other three combined.

Thus Putin’s obsession: Ukraine is, in effect, the tipping-point state. Once it joins the EU and generates economic growth comparable to the other former Soviet satellites already in the economic bloc, the gravitational pull of Ukraine’s prosperity will be irresistible for its three smaller neighbors.

For Putin, the implications of Ukraine’s prospective economic success are dire. The Russian public is so conditioned to view Ukraine as ethnically and linguistically similar to Russia that its prosperity would raise difficult questions inside Russia. If the countries are so much the same, the only plausible explanation for a radical divergence in their economic success would be the political and economic fundamentals of Russia itself.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, September 19, 2025 7:58 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Kremlin appears to be conducting a coordinated information campaign threatening Finland. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on September 18 that the Finnish government’s “neutral veneer peeled off” and that revanchism is “literally on the rise” in Finland.[18] Russian Environmental Protection, Ecology, and Transport Special Presidential Representative Sergei Ivanov claimed on September 18 that Russian-Finnish relations “practically do not exist” and will not improve in the near future as Finland is a NATO member and is “actively calling for strengthening [its] eastern border.”[19] Ivanov claimed that the Finnish population is unsatisfied with the Finnish government and alleged that the lack of Russian tourists has led to “depopulation” and a weakening economy in southeastern Finland. Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa similarly claimed on September 18 that Finland’s NATO membership caused Russians to stop buying property and visiting Finland, leading to “depopulation.”[20]

Ivanov is a member of Putin’s inner circle, serving as the deputy director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) from 1998 to 1999 when Putin headed the organization.[21] Ivanov also served as the defense minister, deputy prime minister, and chief of staff of the Presidential Administration.[22] Ivanov’s removal from his position as the chief of staff of the Presidential Administration in 2016 was likely a demotion at the time, but the Kremlin appears to be using him to reinforce ongoing Russian efforts to threaten Finland.[23] Kremlin newswire TASS and other Russian state media outlets notably amplified Lavrov’s, Ivanov’s, and Chepa’s statements.[24] The similar wording in both Ivanov’s and Chepa’s claims and TASS’ amplification of their comments suggests that this is a concerted top-down Kremlin informational effort targeting Finland.[25] High-ranking Kremlin officials have increased threats against Finland in recent weeks, including by using language that mirrors the Kremlin’s false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine.[26] ISW continues to assess that the playbook Russia is currently using to threaten NATO mirrors the playbook Russia previously used to set informational conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine.[27]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-18-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, September 20, 2025 7:37 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine's New Big Boom FP-2 Drone Is Blowing Up Russian Bases In the Most Important Sectors

The FP-2 packs a 230-pound warhead

Sept 19, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/ukraines-new-big-boom-fp-2-drone

In late February, a Ukrainian force of around a dozen battalions was stubbornly clinging to a 250-square-mile salient in Kursk Oblast in western Russia.

That salient was an embarrassment to Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin. So the Kremlin deployed its best drone unit to Kursk on a mission of supreme importance.

The Rubicon Center of Advanced Unmanned Systems wasn’t well-known at the time. But it quickly achieved fame in Russia—and notoriety in Ukraine. Surging unjammable fiber-optic first-person-view drones into Kursk, Rubicon destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles in the span of a few weeks, effectively collapsing the Ukrainians’ supply lines into Kursk.

In early March, the Ukrainian battalions in the salient beat a hasty retreat. And in the coming months, Rubicon packed up and moved to the next most important battlefield in Russia’s wider war on Ukraine: the one around Pokrovsk, a fortress city anchoring Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

The Ukrainians aren’t just waiting around for Rubicon to do in Pokrovsk what it did in Kursk—sever the supply lines. They’re taking the fight to Rubicon. On Friday, Ukrainian forces located a Rubicon base in Ukrainsk, 13 miles south of Pokrovsk. They attacked with a new, more destructive strike drone—the Fire Point FP-2.

As a surveillance drone watched from overhead, four of the new FP-2s slammed into the building reportedly housing the Rubicon operators. (See video above.)

The propeller-driven FP-2 is a version of Fire Point’s classic FP-1 that’s optimized for short-range attacks. Where the FP-1 devotes most of its 600-pound payload to fuel, extending its range to nearly 900 miles, the FP-2 devotes most of its payload to its warhead.

So where the FP-1 strikes with a 130-pound warhead, the FP-2 explodes with a much more powerful 230-pound warhead. The downside is the newer drone’s limited range: just 130 miles or so. That range makes the FP-2 unsuitable for strikes on oil refineries and other strategic targets deep inside Russia—but for near hits, it’s just the thing.
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/fire-point-introduces-fp-2-frontline-st
rike-drone/

Big boom drone

The FP-2, which comes from the same company that’s developing the new Flamingo cruise missile, is quickly becoming a favorite of Ukrainian drone units operating close to the front line. Around the same time those four FP-2s were blasting Rubicon’s base in Ukrainsk, a huge formation of 19(!) FP-2s bombarded the headquarters of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Kursk.

The 810th Naval Infantry Brigade is one of the few Russian marine brigades left in the sector stretching from Kursk Oblast in western Russia to Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine. The other five marine units that had been fighting in Sumy have now redeployed to the Pokrovsk sector alongside Rubicon.

As a consequence of the Kremlin’s new all-or-nothing focus on Pokrovsk, Russian forces in Sumy are fragile—and the Ukrainian forces in the area know it. Special operations drone teams are escalating their attacks on the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, suppressing the brigade in Kursk as Ukrainian ground troops advance in Sumy.

Meanwhile, the reinforced Ukrainian garrison in Pokrovsk is bracing for what American analyst Andrew Perpetua predicted would be “the largest battle of the entire war.” With recent reinforcements including those marine units from Sumy, the Russian field armies around Pokrovsk might have 150,000 troops as well as hundreds of tanks and other armored vehicles.

And in a departure from a year of mostly infantry-led assaults, the Russians around Pokrovsk are clearly planning for large mechanized assaults. “We will see again the usage of [armored fighting vehicle] columns,” wrote Kriegsforscher, who flies drones in support of Ukrainian brigades north of Pokrovsk. “And it will be very bloody for both sides.”

The problem, of course, is that vehicles are easy to spot from the air—and thus vulnerable to drone strikes. Intelligence indicates the Russian marines who just deployed to the Pokrovsk sector have delayed their main attack “due to the enormous amount of [Ukrainian] UAVs in the air,” Kriegsforscher explained.

It’s Rubicon’s job to suppress the Ukrainian drone teams that make mechanized assaults so risky. Observers have mapped hundreds of fiber-optic FPV strikes by Rubicon teams near Pokrovsk.

A Ukrainian soldier named Andrii, from the 419th Battalion of Unmanned Systems, told Ukrainian-American war correspondent David Kirichenko his team barely escaped a Rubicon drone strike.

Their truck, drones and ammunition for the drones were destroyed, however—so the hit was successful, as far as Rubicon was concerned. “Their goal is to target Ukrainian logistics,” Andrii said.

The Russians plan to attack Pokrovsk with tanks. The Ukrainians plan to defeat the attack with thousands of FPV drones. Rubicon is trying to suppress the Ukrainian drone teams in order to prevent that defeat. Ukraine’s FP-2 operators are trying to suppress Rubicon in order to prevent Rubicon from preventing the Ukrainian FPV teams from defeating the coming tank assault.

The side whose drone strikes are most successful is positioned to win the battle.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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