Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Some of the highlights from this thread

WHOZIT'S paranoia:
Well get ready because China is going to move next, and keep an eye on Iran

Poor lonely THGR/ THGRII/ JJ:
Hey G. Can you stick around a bit? It would be so so good to have another sane person keeping tabs on this. Also, its' good to see you're good.

Quote:
An equally cold assessment G is, the longer it goes on Russia’s military loses more of its assets which is better for Europe. And in the long run the world. If the reports of what they’ve lost so far are true, that’s massive.
THUGR has been banging this drum since day 1.

Quote:
Putin has to be shitting himself. He’s watching his army dissolve right in front of his eyes. I’ve heard it from different professional sources that the Russian military is scared shitless of our military.

Oh, how wrong you were, THUGR!

THUGR: I can tell you don't even know what is truly happening. Putin is losing more than a thousand a day. That's 30 thousand a month and so on.

Putin’s Soldiers Fall Like Dominoes to Ukraine's WWI Tactics. Putin is desperate. He is using chemicals again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-soldiers-fall-like-domino
es-to-ukraine-s-wwi-tactics/vi-AA1IhbNK?ocid=BingNewsSerp

If you're using msn as a source, you need to get better sources.

SECOND is posting more about Russian losses right after your post here. We both know my sources are reputable when yours include the likes of zerohedge. You’re like Jack. Deny the facts and push on. Continue to post propaganda.

T

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Friday, July 11, 2025 4:58 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

No, THGR, your sources are ESTABLISHMENT. Based on what Kiev, the CIA, and MI6 say. Not verified by evidence, and with a long track record of lying for propaganda purposes.

My sources are backed by videos and statements from both sides, maps adjusted based on geolocations, and research using publicized data and transparent methods.

All you have is "someone said". And that's all SECOND has, too.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:19 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, THGR, your sources are ESTABLISHMENT. Based on what Kiev, the CIA, and MI6 say. Not verified by evidence, and with a long track record of lying for propaganda purposes.

My sources are backed by videos and statements from both sides, maps adjusted based on geolocations, and research using publicized data and transparent methods.

All you have is "someone said". And that's all SECOND has, too.

Signym, your sources and statements are paid by Putin, so shove your self-righteousness up your ass. Your response will be something like: "You can't prove Putin paid." Signym, you do not even have these sources' real names, locations, and affiliations. You need all of that even to begin a tentative claim that Putin isn't paying them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:20 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Britain promises Ukraine 5,000 drone-killing missiles. Russia would burn through them fast.
5,000 missiles might sound like a lot—until you do the math. At current launch rates, they wouldn’t last long.

By David Axe | 11 July 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/11/britain-ukraine-5000-missiles/

The United Kingdom is buying 5,000 Lightweight Multirole Missiles from arms firm Thales—and plans to donate them to Ukraine. The 13-kg LMM, fired one at a time from a shoulder launcher, ranges as far as 8 km under infrared guidance.

The 5,000 missiles, built at Thales’ Belfast factory, could cost as much as $3.4 billion. ($680,000 each, or $52,300 per kilogram, more expensive than platinum at $45,500 per kilogram) https://www.apmex.com/platinum-price/1-kilo-platinum-price The UK government announced it will loan the money to the Ukrainian government—with generous repayment terms spread over 19 years.

The LMM buy, first floated in March, “is not only a major boost to the UK’s defense capabilities but will also keep Ukraine in the fight, boosting their defense against Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion,” the government in London stated.

But 5,000 missiles alone can’t keep Ukraine in the fight for very long. Russia is already overwhelming Ukraine’s air-defenses with vast numbers of explosive drones.

The LMM is just the thing to shoot down a relatively low- and slow-flying target such as Russia’s 200-kg Shahed attack drones, which range thousands of miles with 90-kg warheads.

In three years, Russia has launched around 29,000 Shaheds—also known as Gerans—at Ukrainian positions and cities.

Ukrainian forces shot down or jammed most of them. But Ukraine’s air-defenses are running low—and new models of the 440-pound, propeller-driven drone have additional satellite navigation receivers, making them jam-resistant.

Meanwhile, the pace of Shahed launches is increasing—meaning more and more of the drones are striking their targets … and killing or maiming Ukrainians.

Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight crunched the numbers. “The 2,736 drones launched in June, many targeting Kyiv, make up nearly 10% of the total” number of Shaheds launched since Russia widened its war on Ukraine.

This proves “growing production,” explained the Frontelligence Insight’s founder, Tatarigami.

“This aligns with earlier warnings from Ukrainian intelligence, which estimated Russia’s monthly output at around 2,700 Shahed-type UAVs and roughly 2,500 decoys,” Tatarigami noted. The decoys distract Ukrainian defenses, helping the armed Shaheds reach their targets.

In August 2024, Ukrainian officials said Russia was producing about 500 Shaheds a month. “Since then, output has multiplied, and the drones have become deadlier: the warhead weight has increased from 50 kg to 90 kg, and maneuverability has improved,” Tatarigami wrote.

Robert Brovdi, the commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, warned that Shahed production could soon exceed 1,000 per day. “I’m not intimidating anyone,” Brovdi wrote. His warning is based on “analysis of the intelligence,” he said.

“The growing scale is a serious problem for Ukraine,” Tatarigami intoned.

Ukraine is shooting down the drones with mobile gun teams, surface-to-air missile batteries, fighter jets, gunship helicopters and interceptor drones. It’s also sending them off course with electronic warfare systems.

But the sheer number of drones overwhelms Ukraine’s defenses. Part of the problem is that many of the munitions the Ukrainians use to down the Shaheds are more expensive than the drones are.

An LMM costs more than $500,000. (($680,000 each)) A Shahed costs $200,000. 5,000 LMMs costing $3.4 billion, if they struck 100% of the time, would be enough to destroy a few weeks worth of Shaheds costing $1 billion.

For the Ukrainians, “it’s not just about increasing production” of anti-drone systems, “but also about reducing the cost per interception—making it much cheaper to intercept drones than to manufacture them,” Tatarigami explained.

The cheapest defense is jamming. It costs roughly $8 million to surround a city with jammers such as the Night Watch electronic warfare team’s Lima. The few cities that have enjoyed Night Watch’s protection have suffered almost no Shahed strikes for months at a time.

The Russians can jam-proof a drone by adding more antennas for satellite navigation, compelling the Ukrainians to add more channels to their jammers—or risk the electronic defenses failing. Right now, the Russians are evolving their drones faster than the Ukrainians are evolving their jammers, the Night Watch rep admitted.

Asked if Ukraine was losing the war on the Shaheds, a representative of Ukraine’s Night Watch electronic warfare team responded simply. “Yes, it is.”

5,000 missiles that cost slightly too much for anti-Shahed duty may not change that.

Keep reading: Ukraine's perfect German missiles never miss—but Russia's drone factories never sleep
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/09/ukraine-german-missiles-vs-russ
ian-drones/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:29 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

It is a BIG IF, but if Ukraine can increase production 100-fold to 65,000 every 6 months for a cost of $620 million, equivalent to $9,550 each, Ukraine has the Russian drone problem solved:

Ukraine continues to expand its production and innovation of interceptor drones for use against Shahed-type drones. Kyiv City Military Administration Head Timur Tkachenko announced on July 11 that Kyiv City will allocate 260 million hryvnia ($6.2 million) to Ukraine’s Clean Sky program aimed at using interceptor drones to defend Kyiv against nightly Russian long-range drone strikes.[8] Tkachenko stated that the program will fund additional equipment, the creation of an interceptor drone training center, and several mobile interceptor drone units. Tkachenko stated that the project has downed 550 Russian drones over Kyiv City in the last four months. Kyiv Oblast Military Administration Head Mykola Kalashnyk estimated that the project has downed almost 650 drones over Kyiv Oblast more broadly.[9] Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov stated that interceptor drones are downing dozens of Russian long-range drones each night.[10] Ukraine’s interceptor drones will play a critical role in lowering the cost of defense against nightly Russian drone and missile strikes, although US-provided Patriot air defense systems remain the only system capable of downing Russian ballistic missiles.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-11-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:33 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, THGR, your sources are ESTABLISHMENT. Based on what Kiev, the CIA, and MI6 say. Not verified by evidence, and with a long track record of lying for propaganda purposes.

My sources are backed by videos and statements from both sides, maps adjusted based on geolocations, and research using publicized data and transparent methods.

All you have is "someone said". And that's all SECOND has, too.
Signym, your sources and statements are paid by Putin, so shove your self-righteousness up your ass. Your response will be something like: "You can't prove Putin paid." Signym, you do not even have these sources' real names, locations, and affiliations. You need all of that even to begin a tentative claim that Putin isn't paying them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

My source for how the war is going in Ukraine has something yours don't: EVIDENCE.

Videos I can see with my own eyes. Lots of them. All of them together allow me to assess the changing battlefield tactics and strategies. I can see who's running out of weapons ... and who isn't. Who's making progress, and who isn't. Who is getting their sss handed to them.

I also know my other sources. I know their real names and affiliations. Do you? No, you don't.

So, no, they aren't. So sit on it and spin.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 7:05 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

My source for how the war is going in Ukraine has something yours don't: EVIDENCE.

Videos I can see with my own eyes. Lots of them. All of them together allow me to assess the changing battlefield tactics and strategies. I can see who's running out of weapons ... and who isn't. Who's making progress, and who isn't. Who is getting their sss handed to them.

I also know my other sources. I know their real names and affiliations. Do you? No, you don't.

So, no, they aren't. So sit on it and spin.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

Where is the evidence of the evidence you claim to have seen? Oh, you don't have it. Instead, you have your opinion formed by inputting all these little "evidence" videos into your brain and burping out words at fff.net.

In a few years the world will know whether or not Russia is as competent a military power as Signym's opinion holds it to be. Actually, if Russia was competent, the war would have already been finished.

Putin has had many years to prove incompetence is not the rule in Russia and he hasn't delivered the proof. Give him another year or two and maybe he will. I bet he won't.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 7:14 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Unlike Signym, Phillips OBrien wrote books on war. His opinion has weight.
https://annas-archive.org/search?q=Phillips+Payson+O%27Brien

Defeating Russia Is Not Complex--We Just Do Not Want To Do It

By Phillips P. OBrien | Jul 09, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/defeating-russia-is-not-complex
-we

Hi All,

I suppose the thing that is the most frustrating of watching Ukraine be tormented (and that is what we are seeing) is not only is it cruel, it is utterly unnecessary. The idea that Russia will “win” this war—which is the one of the basic narratives out there (especially in Washington DC), is based on assumptions that make little sense economically, militarily, or historically. They are actually grounded as much on misunderstandings of all of these three as anything else.

And yet, the idea that Russia will win the war is what the Trump administration is telling senior Ukrainians to justify their decision to send/sell any more weapons (and yes I have this on excellent authority). Basically the Ukrainians are being told, your cause is doomed, so we do not want to throw away any more US weapons helping you because Russia is going to emerge triumphant. The idea that Ukraine is doomed is one that Trump has been spreading for years—even making it part of his pitch during the presidential campaign. https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-ukraine-putin-zelenskyy-0f4d53
9aa73a943474d779716e5fe42a

Note: There is a question of whether Trump believes this argument or is simply using it to justify his attempts to deprive/not sell Ukraine weaponry. He certainly does seem to accept much of the Russian-sponsored narrative about the war, so it might be his actual outlook—on the other hand, he could be searching around for arguments to support a position he wants to take.

And yet this argument makes little sense based on economics, military capabilities or history. I thought it would be worthwhile briefly outlining why for all three (more detail will follow in later pieces).

The Russian economy is weakening at present—in some ways Trump is keeping it alive by imposing no new sanctions. Because there have been no new sanctions since he became president, the Russians can increasingly maneuver around the old ones (we can see that most obviously in what seems to be more and more Chinese components showing up on the battlefield. The Ukrainians are growing increasingly worried by this. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-weapons-contain-growing-number-of-
cinese-components-material/

If pushed, however, the Russian economy could spiral. It has been so overstimulated by war production (basically Putin has flooded the domestic economy to make war material—which caused very high inflation, high interest rates, etc) that a deprivation of capital (which we are starting to see) could result in the mother of all stagflations. Russian economists are even starting to talk about this openly. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-central-bank-governor
-says-inflation-is-slowing-faster-than-expected-2025-07-02/

The way to hit the Russian economy is to starve it of capital—most of it which gets from outside energy sales (and running down the Russian sovereign wealth fund—which is amazingly running out and could be gone by next year) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/04/russia-sells-off-more-foreig
n-currency-from-wealth-fund-to-bridge-budget-gap-a89689

The Blumenthal-Graham bill, which has been talked about for months (and which would pass Congress in a heartbeat if Trump would pass it) would do just that—strike a devastating blow against Russia’s ability to generate income from outside. The bill imposes a 500 percent tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. That would basically cut Russia off. https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-an
d-grahams-hard-hitting-sanctions-bill-has-over-80-cosponsors

Which is why Trump has never supported the bill and, if he ever allows it to have a vote he will make sure that only he as president has the power to enforce it.

Russia remains what it has always been—a relatively weak economic/technological power. We have the tools to hammer that weakness—we just choose not to.

The Russian military is actually declining in certain capabilities and this situation will get worse in the coming months. When it comes to front-line fighting, the Russians are generating lots of new troops—but they cant train them. This results in very high losses for tiny gains. And moreover, the casualty rates of front line attacking forces it set to go up in the coming months which will further hurt its already limited ability to go forward (if Ukraine continues to be supported).

What we are seeing now is the result of a UAV-saturated battlefield which means offensive forces are now being observed and can come under attack 25 kilometres behind the lines. This depth is set to increase markedly (I have heard discussions of it at least doubling in depth) as UAV capabilities improve. This will mean by later in 2025 attacking forces are going to have to struggle mightily to even get into the position to attack. With the Russian way of war that we are seeing—this will lead to even more losses.

The New York Times a little while ago put out these graphics to show how the battlefield has transformed from 2022 to 2025. In 2022 there were lots of vehicles pushed near the line of contact in an attempt to fight a maneuver war.

Now we have a vehicle-depleted battlefield, as UAVs can see attacking forces earlier and earlier.

This ability to detect attacking forces is the thing that is going to be extended—which will increase offensive force losses.

This is why the real Russian threat (which they seem to understand) is their strategic attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian/economic targets. The Russians are trying to destroy Ukrainian morale and the Ukrainian willingness to keep fighting while at the same time damage where possible Ukrainian production and economic output. Unfortunately this Russian campaign has been seriously enabled by earlier restrictions on aiding Ukraine to fight back at range and now by starving Ukraine of anti-air capacity.

The tragedy of all this is that Ukraine is going to get hammered at home when the war technologically should be turning more and more in their favor on the battlefield. The Russian way of war will soon switch from extremely high to catastrophic losses.

This would normally present the Ukrainians with a military opportunity. Ukraine’s own ranged capabilities are set to grow significantly. This homegrown production could be combined with more support from its allies, to undermine the military integrity of a Russian military suffering catastrophic losses. That is a losing hand military hand for Russia.

The History of war would normally show that a country in Russia’s position is in serious peril. Russia launched the full-scale invasion with visions of quick, practically painless, victories. What it now has, is in historic terms one of the mother of all quagmires. Russia has suffered a million casualties (mostly since January 2024) https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/russia-has-lost-1-million-sol
diers-in-the-war-how-many-more-will-it-throw-into-the-meat-grinder-9061

With losses set to increase, Russian options will be limited if Ukraine is properly supported. Russia can try and freeze the conflict, but as it might also find, Ukraine will have a say. No army, even a Russian one, can stay locked in such a scenario permanently.

The Russian war machine would have no military way to force its opponent to stop fighting, and it would be left having to rely on a decreasing economy to prop up its war effort. Again, in historical terms that is almost always a losing hand.

Of course the tragedy in all of this is that Ukraine has never been armed to take advantage of these weaknesses, and the USA now seems more set on helping Russia correct them than using them to bring stability to Europe. This is strategically disastrous in my view (but the last thing you need is me saying that again).

So Russia can be beaten, in many ways should be beaten, however at present Ukraine’s supporters are not taking proper advantage of Russian vulnerabilities, and in the case of the US, they are actually more helping Russia correct its flaws than exacerbating them.

So Trump is wrong when he claims Ukraine cannot win. In his case, this is a perverse wish, not the truth.

The even greater tragedy is that Ukraine’s friends have constantly minimized Ukraine’s abilities to capitalize on Russia’s economic and military weaknesses.

Thanks for reading Phillips’s Newsletter! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:40 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

My source for how the war is going in Ukraine has something yours don't: EVIDENCE.

Videos I can see with my own eyes. Lots of them. All of them together allow me to assess the changing battlefield tactics and strategies. I can see who's running out of weapons ... and who isn't. Who's making progress, and who isn't. Who is getting their sss handed to them.

I also know my other sources. I know their real names and affiliations. Do you? No, you don't.

So, no, they aren't. So sit on it and spin.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

Where is the evidence of the evidence you claim to have seen? Oh, you don't have it.

You think I'm gonna waste my time on you, again? I'll just call you a liar. I've posted links to my sources so many times that I'm not going to do it again.
Military Summary channel, Simplicius (who shows the stuff that Military Summary can't put on you tube), Meduza, for relative losses.

Go!
Fetch, boy!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:52 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
SECOND
Unlike Signym, Phillips OBrien wrote books on war. His opinion has weight.

Oh, so somebody "wrote books“ and that makes them experts?

Here's a book for you:

I guess since Karl Marx wrote books on the topic he must be an expert too?

The test of whether or not they're experts is whether their POV is borne out by reality.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 4:49 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

For the first time in a week, Russia did NOT attack Ukraine with 500-700 drones/ missiles in a 24-hour period.

Simplicius pointing out the inherent contradictions in our view of Russian and Ukrainian losses.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/rubio-claims-russia-suffered-100k

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Monday, July 14, 2025 7:25 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Simplicius pointing out the inherent contradictions in our view of Russian and Ukrainian losses.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/rubio-claims-russia-suffered-100k

Signym, do the subtraction: 1417 – 1237

In 180 days, Russia will be at war with Ukraine longer than with Germany.

On 22 June 1941, Adolf Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa. Germany officially surrendered in World War II on May 7, 1945, at Reims, France, with a further signing in Berlin on May 8, 1945.

From and including: Sunday, June 22, 1941
To and including: Tuesday, May 8, 1945
Result: 1417 days
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?m1=6&d1=22&am
p;y1=1941&m2=5&d2=8&y2=1945&ti=on

As of July 14, 2025, it has been 1,237 days since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+days+since+russia+invaded+ukr
aine

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, July 14, 2025 7:27 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
SECOND
Unlike Signym, Phillips OBrien wrote books on war. His opinion has weight.

Oh, so somebody "wrote books“ and that makes them experts?

Here's a book for you:

I guess since Karl Marx wrote books on the topic he must be an expert too?

The test of whether or not they're experts is whether their POV is borne out by reality.

Weekend Update #141: Trump vs Biden: A Laughable Comparison

The Bombardment of Ukrainian Cities—How Trump Has Already Helped Russia; The New York Times Embeds With The Waffen SS?

By Phillips P. OBrien | Jul 13, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-141-trump-vs-bid
en

Hi All,

Well this week Trump got really, really mad at Vladimir Putin, and promised that this time he might take some extremely tough steps—and predictably people lost their minds by saying he had “changed” and now the USA under his command was now seriously going to come to Ukraine’s aid (after helping create the very difficult situation Ukraine is in now). The willingness, even pathological need, of some people to see Trump finally riding to Ukraine’s aid is one of the most remarkable examples of hope over experience that we have seen these days. These are often Trump supporters, who were extremely critical of the Biden Administration for limiting aid to Ukraine and claimed Trump would be better—and are now trying to face up to the fact that Trump has been far, far worse for Ukraine (and better for Putin) than they expected.

What this means is that all Trump has to do is raise an eyebrow, twitch a wrist, and they erupt in a chorus about how now everything will be different—and Trump is going to do the right thing.

Its all built on deceptions btw. Trump has already done massive damage to Ukraine and provided great aid to Russia. Not only has he refused to ask for Congress to agree any new aid for Ukraine, he has not sold any new weapons of value to Ukraine, and he has not brought in any new sanctions on Russia (which has helped the Russian avoid the present ones).

Trump has helped create the present terrible situation in the air over Ukraine, by protecting Russian industry as it ramps up production while limiting Ukrainian access to air defense. He bears a great responsibility as one of the actors that has made the war what it is for now.

Trump vs Biden: A Laughable Comparison

It was said this week that Trump, having earlier seen his administration claw back hundreds of millions of dollars of aid to Ukraine, might now pivot and provide Ukraine aid of up to $300 million (btw we have no confirmation of this—it was all anonymous and Trump has said he is making an announcement tomorrow). This kind of story has been used by some Trump/Ukraine supporters to claim (with almost no substance) that Trump is now moving away from Russia and towards Ukraine.

Trump and Biden—When It Comes To Supporting Ukraine Its Insulting To Compare The Former To The Latter

If a so-far mythical $300 million in aid (which btw would probably take months to arrive even if approved this week) is enough to cause people to say Trump is now pro-Ukraine—many, many apologies need to be extended to President Biden and his Administration.

Look, I was as critical as anyone about how the Biden Administration aided Ukraine. It seemed to me hesitant and far too deferential to Russia. However, compared to Donald Trump, Joe Biden was a lion in defense of Ukraine—and comparisons between them show how laughable the idea is that Trump is now a Ukraine supporter.

For instance, in the last two weeks, the Trump administration, scraping the bottom of the barrel, as part of its claw back of military support for Ukraine, kept 30 Patriot missiles from being delivered to Kyiv. Then, after the outcry worried Trump and he pivoted—he had ten of these missiles were reallocated to Ukraine. Ten whole missiles—hosannah!

I reached out to some people in the Biden Administration foreign policy world, and they saw this figure for the derisory move that it was. One source, who knows exactly the situation, said that in 2024 the Biden administration basically forced US partners to divert 700 Patriot missiles to Ukraine. What the Biden Administration did was decree that all countries that were supposed to receive Patriots of a certain type, would see their deliveries pushed back by one year, and the missiles they were supposed to receive were then allocated to Ukraine. This mass delivery has been vital.

And this is only a small amount of the massive amount of anti-air support that Biden funneled to Ukraine in 2024. There were thousands of NASMs and Hawk interceptors, Sparrows and Sidewinders sent as well. Counting all anti-air systems that the Biden Administration is not now possible because we do not have access to the sources, but I was assured by this source that, numerically many “thousands, possibly tens of thousands” of units of anti-air ammunition were allocated to Ukraine in 2024 by Biden.

The monetary commitment of the US under Biden backs this up. While Trump supporters will probably lose their mind if Trump allocates $300 million to Ukraine (which might not even make up for all the aid he clawed back—much of which might never reach Ukraine), the Biden Administration secured Congressional approval and allocated almost $70 billion in military aid to Ukraine before it left office. It sent so much aid near the end, that it had not all been delivered (which allowed Trump to try and take it back). Indeed if Trump sends $300 million more to Ukraine—that will come from allocations that Biden secured. Trump has asked Congress for no more aid at all.

And Biden’s aid has really helped this year. One thing the Biden administration invested in was Ukraine’s UAV industry—to the tune of $2.3 billion over the last few years. This alone is 8 times the aid the Trump administration might now send (and which it still might not).

So it is laughable to compare what Biden has done for Ukraine and what Trump might do. Biden, for all his faults, oversaw an honest attempt to support Ukraine and funneled billions and billions into the effort. Trump has so far only damaged Ukraine and helped Russia. If he makes a small pivot now, he cannot undo the damage he has already enacted.

Before I leave this segment—I think we also need to be clear on a few points. The Trump administration, and Trump himself, relies on bluster and misdirection so much—and almost never gives concrete facts and figures, that people have to rely on their imagination much of the time (which is what Trump wants.

But here are a few things to consider.

First: We still do not know if Trump was actually out of the loop with the first US move to claw back aid to Ukraine. When there was an outcry the White House claimed that he did not know anything—however he has made sure that those responsible for the move (Elbridge Colby and Pete Hegseth) are still in post—and indeed he has gone out of his way to praise Hegseth recently. If he was blindsided by the move, as the White House is trying to claim, he has an odd way of showing it by praising the architects of the plan. Btw, its just as likely that he knew what was going to happen (this is the second time the US has tried to cut all aid to Ukraine) and only pivoted after the fact. As long as Colby and Hegseth are still in post, that remains as plausible a reading as the one that Trump is trying to spin.

Second: There is no evidence that Ukraine will receive all, or even a majority of the aid that the Trump administration clawed back. As stated above, we know that Ukraine is down 20 Patriot missiles from expected allocation—and there has been no evidence that other clawed back anti-air systems are going to be returned—such as Stingers and Sparrows. Yes, US aid is now being redirected back, but we have no idea what percentage of the original allocation that will be. Unless the Trump administration is clear that “all” of what was allocated to Ukraine is being sent—Ukraine is and will continue to be weaker than it should have been because of this move. When Trump talks about sending “aid” to Ukraine—that needs to be put in perspective. If he wants to aid Ukraine, he can do so easily and make masses of money for the US economy, by selling weapons. Ukraine has said it is willing to pay for $50 billion in US weapons—and Trump so far has refused to sell (though he sells to many others). Its a perplexing decision—to say the least.

Third: Lets see real sanctions on Russia—and this means enforcement of the Graham/Blumenthal bill (if Trump allows it to have a vote). Every day now the USA is helping Russian war industry by refusing to put on new sanctions (there has not been a single new sanction since Biden left office). Trump has talked since January of imposing super-duper sanctions on Russia if Putin does not relent—but they never appear. No more talk—let the bill pass, and then enforce it. Anything else is a continuing delaying tactic while the US helps Russia.

**************

The Bombardment of Ukrainian Cities—How Trump Has Already Helped Russia

I have talked about this so many times over the last 6 months that I’m sure I sound like a broken record to regular readers—but the fact is that the US under Trump has made the mass Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities far more bloody and destructive than they should be because he has been so stingy on air defense. This was all so predictable as said before and reiterated earlier this week in this (free) piece.

This week these attacks have reached historic levels. Each day a new record seems to be broken as the Russians attack Ukraine with more and more systems. And the attacks are spreading across Ukraine. On the evening of July 11-12, the Russians fired more than 600 Shaheds and more than two dozen cruise missiles at Ukraine—this time concentrating on the western part of the country and doing real damage to Lviv.

This comes hot on the heels of other mass attacks earlier in the week. On Wednesday night, for instance, the Russian fired about 400 Shaheds and 30 missiles at Ukraine (mostly Kyiv)—and a number got through the defensive screen and did real damage. This came a day after the Russians launched their largest attack of the war, with more than 700 shaheds and around 15 missiles.

This is in many ways the key campaign of the war right now. The Russian attacks seem designed to sap Ukrainian will and ability to wage war. If they can saturate Ukrainian air defense (which is running out of Patriots) they can assume more and more systems will hit their targets.

Future aid is of cold comfort as these attacks are ongoing. Ukraine needs to be supported in this fight now.

*************

The New York Times Embeds With The Waffen SS?

Imagine if a New York Time reporters spent a week embedded with a Waffen SS Unit as it invaded the USSR in 1941, and then reported back about possible Soviet war crimes? Hard to imagine you might say—well maybe not as just a few hours ago the New York Times released the modern day equivalent in the Russo-Ukraine War.

The Times sent a reporter, Nanna Heitman, into the areas of Russia that Ukraine occupied in Kursk oblast in 2024—under the protection of Akhmat special forces. For those who do not know, the Akhmat special forces are a creation of Roman Kadyrov, Putin’s henchman murderous enforcer, who runs Chechnya as a personal fiefdom. Akhmat has also recently been said to be incorporating a large number of Wagner fighters—and Akhmat soldiers have been accused by the Ukrainians of committing war crimes.

The story itself is a rehash of the Putin view of the war. Russians blame NATO expansion for causing the war, say Russians and Ukrainians are really brothers (even as the Russians are bombarding Ukrainian cities at night) and make unsubstantiated claims that the Ukrainian committed war crimes in Ukraine.

Quite how the Times got to this stage of basically unfiltered expositions of Putin’s narratives is beyond me—but there we are. There was not a single mention of a Russian war crime in the piece, just possible Ukrainian ones.

Btw—the entire Russian invasion and thus this war, is a war crime under the UN charter—just in case you had your doubts.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, July 14, 2025 7:39 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

A German official confirmed that Germany is interested in purchasing Patriot air defense systems from the United States on behalf of Ukraine. The head of the German Ministry of Defense's Planning and Command Staff, Major General Christian Freuding, announced on July 12 that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth spoke several weeks ago about Germany's desire to purchase two Patriot air defense systems.[1] Freuding stated that US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also spoke about the potential purchase in recent days and that Pistorius will travel to Washington, D.C. on July 14 for additional discussions. Freuding stated that Germany has opened a Patriot interceptor production line and that Germany will produce the first European-made Patriot interceptors in late 2026 or early 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 10 Germany's willingness to purchase two Patriot air defense systems on Ukraine's behalf.[2]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-13-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, July 14, 2025 10:52 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, THGR, your sources are ESTABLISHMENT. Based on what Kiev, the CIA, and MI6 say. Not verified by evidence, and with a long track record of lying for propaganda purposes.

My sources are backed by videos and statements from both sides, maps adjusted based on geolocations, and research using publicized data and transparent methods.

All you have is "someone said". And that's all SECOND has, too.

Your source is Russian. If someone were to follow your source, which I am not reposting, they would see pro Putin/Russian bullshit saying how well they are doing. As for you posting both sides. Only the truth matters, and you aren’t posting it comrade.

T

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Monday, July 14, 2025 10:57 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:

A German official confirmed that Germany is interested in purchasing Patriot air defense systems from the United States on behalf of Ukraine. The head of the German Ministry of Defense's Planning and Command Staff, Major General Christian Freuding, announced on July 12 that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth spoke several weeks ago about Germany's desire to purchase two Patriot air defense systems.[1] Freuding stated that US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also spoke about the potential purchase in recent days and that Pistorius will travel to Washington, D.C. on July 14 for additional discussions. Freuding stated that Germany has opened a Patriot interceptor production line and that Germany will produce the first European-made Patriot interceptors in late 2026 or early 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 10 Germany's willingness to purchase two Patriot air defense systems on Ukraine's behalf.[2]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-13-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

I'm betting Trump is still only going to do the barest minimum which still benefits Putin. Trump wants to divide the world into 3 hemispheres. Northen, Asian, and European. Trump wants Putin to go along with that.

T

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Monday, July 14, 2025 11:10 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

For the first time in a week, Russia did NOT attack Ukraine with 500-700 drones/ missiles in a 24-hour period.

Simplicius pointing out the inherent contradictions in our view of Russian and Ukrainian losses.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/rubio-claims-russia-suffered-100k

I think the truth you failed to mention is that "For the first time in a week, Russia did NOT attack Ukrainian cities with 500-700 drones/ missiles in a 24-hour period.

T

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Monday, July 14, 2025 11:15 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
SECOND
Unlike Signym, Phillips OBrien wrote books on war. His opinion has weight.

Oh, so somebody "wrote books“ and that makes them experts?

Here's a book for you:

I guess since Karl Marx wrote books on the topic he must be an expert too?

The test of whether or not they're experts is whether their POV is borne out by reality.

"Karl Marx is often criticized for his role in the historical events that led to the deaths of millions during the Russian Revolution and the subsequent Soviet regime. While specific numbers are difficult to pinpoint, it is widely accepted that communist regimes, including those led by Marx's followers, resulted in the deaths of millions. Estimates of the total death toll under communist rule range from 10 to 148 million, depending on the criteria used to define these events" Internet source

And another fact comrade signym omits from her post. Karl Marx was just another typical Russian! And his followers were, dare I say, just more typical Russians'!

T

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Monday, July 14, 2025 2:12 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
"Karl Marx is often criticized for his role in the historical events that led to the deaths of millions during the Russian Revolution and the subsequent Soviet regime. While specific numbers are difficult to pinpoint, it is widely accepted that communist regimes, including those led by Marx's followers, resulted in the deaths of millions. Estimates of the total death toll under communist rule range from 10 to 148 million, depending on the criteria used to define these events" Internet source

And another fact comrade signym omits from her post. Karl Marx was just another typical Russian! And his followers were, dare I say, just more typical Russians'!

OMFG.
You don't know anything, do you?
Karl Marx was a GERMAN JEW.
Better check your "FACTS", stupid, before braying your ignorance all over the internet.

WIKIPEDIA

Quote:
Karl Marx (5 May 1818 – 14 March 1883) was a German philosopher, economist, sociologist, historian, journalist, and revolutionary socialist. Marx's work in economics laid the basis for the current understanding of labour and its relation to capital, and has influenced much of subsequent economic thought. He published numerous books during his lifetime, the most notable being The Communist Manifesto. Marx studied at the University of Bonn and the University of Berlin, where he became interested in the philosophical ideas of the Young Hegelians. After his studies, he wrote for a radical newspaper in Cologne, and began to work out his theory of dialectical materialism. He moved to Paris in 1843, where he began writing for other radical newspapers and met Fredrick Engels, who would become his lifelong friend and collaborator. In 1845 he was exiled and moved to London

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Monday, July 14, 2025 2:46 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

For the first time in a week, Russia did NOT attack Ukraine with 500-700 drones/ missiles in a 24-hour period.

Simplicius pointing out the inherent contradictions in our view of Russian and Ukrainian losses.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/rubio-claims-russia-suffered-100k

THGR:
I think the truth you failed to mention is that "For the first time in a week, Russia did NOT attack Ukrainian cities with 500-700 drones/ missiles in a 24-hour period.

For the first time in a week, Russia did NOT attack military targets in Ukrainian cities with 500-700 drones/ missiles in a 24-hour period.

Because despite the intense attacks (on warehouses, military bases, production facilities, military airfields, cement factories, and suchlike) very few civilians were killed.

However, Russia DID assasinate Lt Colonel Varonish of the Ukrainian SBU. Varonish was responsible for the assasination program beginning in 2014 that killed militia leaders and a civilian separatist leader in Donetsk (call sign Givi, call sign Motorola, Zakharchenko) and attempted assasinations in Russia.

Ukraine has been waging a "dirty war" of terror, assasination, false flags, and disinformation since 2014. Expect to see a Russian response in future.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Monday, July 14, 2025 3:55 PM