Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:52
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Friday, July 11, 2025 2:51 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
As of July 11, 2025, estimates indicate that approximately 1,031,620 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Independent sources have confirmed the identities of 118,000 Russian military personnel killed during this conflict, with actual numbers likely being higher due to underreporting

So, let's be generous and say that 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. That's increasing the verified figure by almost 50%. That's not as dramatic as the 1 million figure that western establishment has decided they're going to talk about.

We really don't know how many have been wounded, and of those, how many were treated and returned to service and how many were permanently removed from battle.

THGR, I watched that video about trench warfare. It presents a cogent story that hangs together pretty consistently. The problem is that it doesn't match the day to day videos posted by both sides, which I follow almost every day on Military Summary channel.

It's true that Russia has taken to attacking in smaller units - 3 men, usually. That attack IDs Ukrainian defensive positions, which are the attacked by artillery or drone, depending on how hardened the position is.

But those defensive positions are rarely trenches, according to the videos. Most often they're tree lines or buildings. And not sure how accurate his map is, but he does indicate trenches and major fortifications, and it seems the Russian army tends to go around them and cut off their supply lines, rather than tackling them head-on.

In fact, attacking logistics... surrounding important targets, aiming for roadways, bridges, and intersections, and creating cauldrons seems to be Russia's favorite tactic. Once an area is a mostly encircled, Russia just bombs and drones the remaining route (the "golden bridge") being used to either reinforce or evacuate the cauldron, and then drones or shells/ bombs whatever is inside the cauldron..

If you look at a current map, you'll see that Kupiansk, Konstantinovka, and Pokrovsk are all more than 2/3 encircled, with the intervening areas also being whittled down in a series of smaller cauldrons.

AFA chemical weapons ... well, the West accused Russia of poisoning people with very sketchy evidence, or no evidence at all. They SAY they have evidence but don't say what that is. Given a history of lying and literally making up data, I put that accusation in a giant mental warehouse called "unproven".

Finally... given the intensity of the fighting, the fact that ONLY 13,000 civilians have been killed (they say) is over 3.5 years of intense air attack just goes to show that Russia really is aiming at military targets. It's not a war crime to kill civilians. It's a war crime to TARGET civilians. If they wanted to kill civilians, the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands. Just look at Gaza.

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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Friday, July 11, 2025 3:12 PM

THG

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Some of the highlights from this thread

WHOZIT'S paranoia:
Well get ready because China is going to move next, and keep an eye on Iran

Poor lonely THGR/ THGRII/ JJ:
Hey G. Can you stick around a bit? It would be so so good to have another sane person keeping tabs on this. Also, its' good to see you're good.

Quote:
An equally cold assessment G is, the longer it goes on Russia’s military loses more of its assets which is better for Europe. And in the long run the world. If the reports of what they’ve lost so far are true, that’s massive.
THUGR has been banging this drum since day 1.

Quote:
Putin has to be shitting himself. He’s watching his army dissolve right in front of his eyes. I’ve heard it from different professional sources that the Russian military is scared shitless of our military.

Oh, how wrong you were, THUGR!

THUGR: I can tell you don't even know what is truly happening. Putin is losing more than a thousand a day. That's 30 thousand a month and so on.

Putin’s Soldiers Fall Like Dominoes to Ukraine's WWI Tactics. Putin is desperate. He is using chemicals again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-soldiers-fall-like-domino
es-to-ukraine-s-wwi-tactics/vi-AA1IhbNK?ocid=BingNewsSerp

If you're using msn as a source, you need to get better sources.

SECOND is posting more about Russian losses right after your post here. We both know my sources are reputable when yours include the likes of zerohedge. You’re like Jack. Deny the facts and push on. Continue to post propaganda.

T

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Friday, July 11, 2025 4:58 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

No, THGR, your sources are ESTABLISHMENT. Based on what Kiev, the CIA, and MI6 say. Not verified by evidence, and with a long track record of lying for propaganda purposes.

My sources are backed by videos and statements from both sides, maps adjusted based on geolocations, and research using publicized data and transparent methods.

All you have is "someone said". And that's all SECOND has, too.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:19 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, THGR, your sources are ESTABLISHMENT. Based on what Kiev, the CIA, and MI6 say. Not verified by evidence, and with a long track record of lying for propaganda purposes.

My sources are backed by videos and statements from both sides, maps adjusted based on geolocations, and research using publicized data and transparent methods.

All you have is "someone said". And that's all SECOND has, too.

Signym, your sources and statements are paid by Putin, so shove your self-righteousness up your ass. Your response will be something like: "You can't prove Putin paid." Signym, you do not even have these sources' real names, locations, and affiliations. You need all of that even to begin a tentative claim that Putin isn't paying them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Britain promises Ukraine 5,000 drone-killing missiles. Russia would burn through them fast.
5,000 missiles might sound like a lot—until you do the math. At current launch rates, they wouldn’t last long.

By David Axe | 11 July 2025

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/11/britain-ukraine-5000-missiles/

The United Kingdom is buying 5,000 Lightweight Multirole Missiles from arms firm Thales—and plans to donate them to Ukraine. The 13-kg LMM, fired one at a time from a shoulder launcher, ranges as far as 8 km under infrared guidance.

The 5,000 missiles, built at Thales’ Belfast factory, could cost as much as $3.4 billion. ($680,000 each, or $52,300 per kilogram, more expensive than platinum at $45,500 per kilogram) https://www.apmex.com/platinum-price/1-kilo-platinum-price The UK government announced it will loan the money to the Ukrainian government—with generous repayment terms spread over 19 years.

The LMM buy, first floated in March, “is not only a major boost to the UK’s defense capabilities but will also keep Ukraine in the fight, boosting their defense against Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion,” the government in London stated.

But 5,000 missiles alone can’t keep Ukraine in the fight for very long. Russia is already overwhelming Ukraine’s air-defenses with vast numbers of explosive drones.

The LMM is just the thing to shoot down a relatively low- and slow-flying target such as Russia’s 200-kg Shahed attack drones, which range thousands of miles with 90-kg warheads.

In three years, Russia has launched around 29,000 Shaheds—also known as Gerans—at Ukrainian positions and cities.

Ukrainian forces shot down or jammed most of them. But Ukraine’s air-defenses are running low—and new models of the 440-pound, propeller-driven drone have additional satellite navigation receivers, making them jam-resistant.

Meanwhile, the pace of Shahed launches is increasing—meaning more and more of the drones are striking their targets … and killing or maiming Ukrainians.

Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight crunched the numbers. “The 2,736 drones launched in June, many targeting Kyiv, make up nearly 10% of the total” number of Shaheds launched since Russia widened its war on Ukraine.

This proves “growing production,” explained the Frontelligence Insight’s founder, Tatarigami.

“This aligns with earlier warnings from Ukrainian intelligence, which estimated Russia’s monthly output at around 2,700 Shahed-type UAVs and roughly 2,500 decoys,” Tatarigami noted. The decoys distract Ukrainian defenses, helping the armed Shaheds reach their targets.

In August 2024, Ukrainian officials said Russia was producing about 500 Shaheds a month. “Since then, output has multiplied, and the drones have become deadlier: the warhead weight has increased from 50 kg to 90 kg, and maneuverability has improved,” Tatarigami wrote.

Robert Brovdi, the commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, warned that Shahed production could soon exceed 1,000 per day. “I’m not intimidating anyone,” Brovdi wrote. His warning is based on “analysis of the intelligence,” he said.

“The growing scale is a serious problem for Ukraine,” Tatarigami intoned.

Ukraine is shooting down the drones with mobile gun teams, surface-to-air missile batteries, fighter jets, gunship helicopters and interceptor drones. It’s also sending them off course with electronic warfare systems.

But the sheer number of drones overwhelms Ukraine’s defenses. Part of the problem is that many of the munitions the Ukrainians use to down the Shaheds are more expensive than the drones are.

An LMM costs more than $500,000. (($680,000 each)) A Shahed costs $200,000. 5,000 LMMs costing $3.4 billion, if they struck 100% of the time, would be enough to destroy a few weeks worth of Shaheds costing $1 billion.

For the Ukrainians, “it’s not just about increasing production” of anti-drone systems, “but also about reducing the cost per interception—making it much cheaper to intercept drones than to manufacture them,” Tatarigami explained.

The cheapest defense is jamming. It costs roughly $8 million to surround a city with jammers such as the Night Watch electronic warfare team’s Lima. The few cities that have enjoyed Night Watch’s protection have suffered almost no Shahed strikes for months at a time.

The Russians can jam-proof a drone by adding more antennas for satellite navigation, compelling the Ukrainians to add more channels to their jammers—or risk the electronic defenses failing. Right now, the Russians are evolving their drones faster than the Ukrainians are evolving their jammers, the Night Watch rep admitted.

Asked if Ukraine was losing the war on the Shaheds, a representative of Ukraine’s Night Watch electronic warfare team responded simply. “Yes, it is.”

5,000 missiles that cost slightly too much for anti-Shahed duty may not change that.

Keep reading: Ukraine's perfect German missiles never miss—but Russia's drone factories never sleep
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/09/ukraine-german-missiles-vs-russ
ian-drones/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

It is a BIG IF, but if Ukraine can increase production 100-fold to 65,000 every 6 months for a cost of $620 million, equivalent to $9,550 each, Ukraine has the Russian drone problem solved:

Ukraine continues to expand its production and innovation of interceptor drones for use against Shahed-type drones. Kyiv City Military Administration Head Timur Tkachenko announced on July 11 that Kyiv City will allocate 260 million hryvnia ($6.2 million) to Ukraine’s Clean Sky program aimed at using interceptor drones to defend Kyiv against nightly Russian long-range drone strikes.[8] Tkachenko stated that the program will fund additional equipment, the creation of an interceptor drone training center, and several mobile interceptor drone units. Tkachenko stated that the project has downed 550 Russian drones over Kyiv City in the last four months. Kyiv Oblast Military Administration Head Mykola Kalashnyk estimated that the project has downed almost 650 drones over Kyiv Oblast more broadly.[9] Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov stated that interceptor drones are downing dozens of Russian long-range drones each night.[10] Ukraine’s interceptor drones will play a critical role in lowering the cost of defense against nightly Russian drone and missile strikes, although US-provided Patriot air defense systems remain the only system capable of downing Russian ballistic missiles.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-11-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, July 12, 2025 6:33 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
No, THGR, your sources are ESTABLISHMENT. Based on what Kiev, the CIA, and MI6 say. Not verified by evidence, and with a long track record of lying for propaganda purposes.

My sources are backed by videos and statements from both sides, maps adjusted based on geolocations, and research using publicized data and transparent methods.

All you have is "someone said". And that's all SECOND has, too.
Signym, your sources and statements are paid by Putin, so shove your self-righteousness up your ass. Your response will be something like: "You can't prove Putin paid." Signym, you do not even have these sources' real names, locations, and affiliations. You need all of that even to begin a tentative claim that Putin isn't paying them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

My source for how the war is going in Ukraine has something yours don't: EVIDENCE.

Videos I can see with my own eyes. Lots of them. All of them together allow me to assess the changing battlefield tactics and strategies. I can see who's running out of weapons ... and who isn't. Who's making progress, and who isn't. Who is getting their sss handed to them.

I also know my other sources. I know their real names and affiliations. Do you? No, you don't.

So, no, they aren't. So sit on it and spin.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 7:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

My source for how the war is going in Ukraine has something yours don't: EVIDENCE.

Videos I can see with my own eyes. Lots of them. All of them together allow me to assess the changing battlefield tactics and strategies. I can see who's running out of weapons ... and who isn't. Who's making progress, and who isn't. Who is getting their sss handed to them.

I also know my other sources. I know their real names and affiliations. Do you? No, you don't.

So, no, they aren't. So sit on it and spin.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

Where is the evidence of the evidence you claim to have seen? Oh, you don't have it. Instead, you have your opinion formed by inputting all these little "evidence" videos into your brain and burping out words at fff.net.

In a few years the world will know whether or not Russia is as competent a military power as Signym's opinion holds it to be. Actually, if Russia was competent, the war would have already been finished.

Putin has had many years to prove incompetence is not the rule in Russia and he hasn't delivered the proof. Give him another year or two and maybe he will. I bet he won't.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 7:14 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Unlike Signym, Phillips OBrien wrote books on war. His opinion has weight.
https://annas-archive.org/search?q=Phillips+Payson+O%27Brien

Defeating Russia Is Not Complex--We Just Do Not Want To Do It

By Phillips P. OBrien | Jul 09, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/defeating-russia-is-not-complex
-we

Hi All,

I suppose the thing that is the most frustrating of watching Ukraine be tormented (and that is what we are seeing) is not only is it cruel, it is utterly unnecessary. The idea that Russia will “win” this war—which is the one of the basic narratives out there (especially in Washington DC), is based on assumptions that make little sense economically, militarily, or historically. They are actually grounded as much on misunderstandings of all of these three as anything else.

And yet, the idea that Russia will win the war is what the Trump administration is telling senior Ukrainians to justify their decision to send/sell any more weapons (and yes I have this on excellent authority). Basically the Ukrainians are being told, your cause is doomed, so we do not want to throw away any more US weapons helping you because Russia is going to emerge triumphant. The idea that Ukraine is doomed is one that Trump has been spreading for years—even making it part of his pitch during the presidential campaign. https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-ukraine-putin-zelenskyy-0f4d53
9aa73a943474d779716e5fe42a

Note: There is a question of whether Trump believes this argument or is simply using it to justify his attempts to deprive/not sell Ukraine weaponry. He certainly does seem to accept much of the Russian-sponsored narrative about the war, so it might be his actual outlook—on the other hand, he could be searching around for arguments to support a position he wants to take.

And yet this argument makes little sense based on economics, military capabilities or history. I thought it would be worthwhile briefly outlining why for all three (more detail will follow in later pieces).

The Russian economy is weakening at present—in some ways Trump is keeping it alive by imposing no new sanctions. Because there have been no new sanctions since he became president, the Russians can increasingly maneuver around the old ones (we can see that most obviously in what seems to be more and more Chinese components showing up on the battlefield. The Ukrainians are growing increasingly worried by this. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-weapons-contain-growing-number-of-
cinese-components-material/

If pushed, however, the Russian economy could spiral. It has been so overstimulated by war production (basically Putin has flooded the domestic economy to make war material—which caused very high inflation, high interest rates, etc) that a deprivation of capital (which we are starting to see) could result in the mother of all stagflations. Russian economists are even starting to talk about this openly. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-central-bank-governor
-says-inflation-is-slowing-faster-than-expected-2025-07-02/

The way to hit the Russian economy is to starve it of capital—most of it which gets from outside energy sales (and running down the Russian sovereign wealth fund—which is amazingly running out and could be gone by next year) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/04/russia-sells-off-more-foreig
n-currency-from-wealth-fund-to-bridge-budget-gap-a89689

The Blumenthal-Graham bill, which has been talked about for months (and which would pass Congress in a heartbeat if Trump would pass it) would do just that—strike a devastating blow against Russia’s ability to generate income from outside. The bill imposes a 500 percent tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. That would basically cut Russia off. https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-an
d-grahams-hard-hitting-sanctions-bill-has-over-80-cosponsors

Which is why Trump has never supported the bill and, if he ever allows it to have a vote he will make sure that only he as president has the power to enforce it.

Russia remains what it has always been—a relatively weak economic/technological power. We have the tools to hammer that weakness—we just choose not to.

The Russian military is actually declining in certain capabilities and this situation will get worse in the coming months. When it comes to front-line fighting, the Russians are generating lots of new troops—but they cant train them. This results in very high losses for tiny gains. And moreover, the casualty rates of front line attacking forces it set to go up in the coming months which will further hurt its already limited ability to go forward (if Ukraine continues to be supported).

What we are seeing now is the result of a UAV-saturated battlefield which means offensive forces are now being observed and can come under attack 25 kilometres behind the lines. This depth is set to increase markedly (I have heard discussions of it at least doubling in depth) as UAV capabilities improve. This will mean by later in 2025 attacking forces are going to have to struggle mightily to even get into the position to attack. With the Russian way of war that we are seeing—this will lead to even more losses.

The New York Times a little while ago put out these graphics to show how the battlefield has transformed from 2022 to 2025. In 2022 there were lots of vehicles pushed near the line of contact in an attempt to fight a maneuver war.

Now we have a vehicle-depleted battlefield, as UAVs can see attacking forces earlier and earlier.

This ability to detect attacking forces is the thing that is going to be extended—which will increase offensive force losses.

This is why the real Russian threat (which they seem to understand) is their strategic attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian/economic targets. The Russians are trying to destroy Ukrainian morale and the Ukrainian willingness to keep fighting while at the same time damage where possible Ukrainian production and economic output. Unfortunately this Russian campaign has been seriously enabled by earlier restrictions on aiding Ukraine to fight back at range and now by starving Ukraine of anti-air capacity.

The tragedy of all this is that Ukraine is going to get hammered at home when the war technologically should be turning more and more in their favor on the battlefield. The Russian way of war will soon switch from extremely high to catastrophic losses.

This would normally present the Ukrainians with a military opportunity. Ukraine’s own ranged capabilities are set to grow significantly. This homegrown production could be combined with more support from its allies, to undermine the military integrity of a Russian military suffering catastrophic losses. That is a losing hand military hand for Russia.

The History of war would normally show that a country in Russia’s position is in serious peril. Russia launched the full-scale invasion with visions of quick, practically painless, victories. What it now has, is in historic terms one of the mother of all quagmires. Russia has suffered a million casualties (mostly since January 2024) https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/russia-has-lost-1-million-sol
diers-in-the-war-how-many-more-will-it-throw-into-the-meat-grinder-9061

With losses set to increase, Russian options will be limited if Ukraine is properly supported. Russia can try and freeze the conflict, but as it might also find, Ukraine will have a say. No army, even a Russian one, can stay locked in such a scenario permanently.

The Russian war machine would have no military way to force its opponent to stop fighting, and it would be left having to rely on a decreasing economy to prop up its war effort. Again, in historical terms that is almost always a losing hand.

Of course the tragedy in all of this is that Ukraine has never been armed to take advantage of these weaknesses, and the USA now seems more set on helping Russia correct them than using them to bring stability to Europe. This is strategically disastrous in my view (but the last thing you need is me saying that again).

So Russia can be beaten, in many ways should be beaten, however at present Ukraine’s supporters are not taking proper advantage of Russian vulnerabilities, and in the case of the US, they are actually more helping Russia correct its flaws than exacerbating them.

So Trump is wrong when he claims Ukraine cannot win. In his case, this is a perverse wish, not the truth.

The even greater tragedy is that Ukraine’s friends have constantly minimized Ukraine’s abilities to capitalize on Russia’s economic and military weaknesses.

Thanks for reading Phillips’s Newsletter! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:40 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

My source for how the war is going in Ukraine has something yours don't: EVIDENCE.

Videos I can see with my own eyes. Lots of them. All of them together allow me to assess the changing battlefield tactics and strategies. I can see who's running out of weapons ... and who isn't. Who's making progress, and who isn't. Who is getting their sss handed to them.

I also know my other sources. I know their real names and affiliations. Do you? No, you don't.

So, no, they aren't. So sit on it and spin.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

Where is the evidence of the evidence you claim to have seen? Oh, you don't have it.

You think I'm gonna waste my time on you, again? I'll just call you a liar. I've posted links to my sources so many times that I'm not going to do it again.
Military Summary channel, Simplicius (who shows the stuff that Military Summary can't put on you tube), Meduza, for relative losses.

Go!
Fetch, boy!

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:52 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
SECOND
Unlike Signym, Phillips OBrien wrote books on war. His opinion has weight.

Oh, so somebody "wrote books“ and that makes them "experts"?

Here's a book for you:

I guess since Karl Marx wrote books on the topic he must be an expert too?

The test of whether or not they're experts is whether their POV is borne out by reality.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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