REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, October 31, 2024 13:46
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Thursday, July 6, 2023 1:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


lol @ your fear porn.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, July 6, 2023 2:34 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol @ your fear porn.

I guess you misunderstood the part where Russians actually, really, historically murdered 4 million Ukrainians, then justified the murders by calling them Nazis. Decades pass then Russia threatened to nuke the Ukrainians if they don't surrender. The Ukrainians replied that the Russians had signed a document in 1994 to NOT nuke them. The Russians came back with a haughty reply that it was the Ukrainians who broke the agreement, that Ukrainians invaded Russia (not the other way around), and that this war is Ukraine's fault since Ukraine has always been Russia's property.

The Trilateral Process: The United States, Ukraine, Russia and Nuclear Weapons
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-s
tates-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons
/

Ukraine and weapons of mass destruction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 6, 2023 5:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Actually it was NATO's fault for trying to extend into Ukraine.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Thursday, July 6, 2023 5:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Actually it was NATO's fault for trying to extend into Ukraine.



Yup.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, July 6, 2023 5:24 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Dramatic Video Shows Russian Jets 'Harassing' US Drones Over Syria
... The US recently authorized deployment of F-22 Raptor stealth fighters in defense of US positions in the northeast of the country.
.



Where we are stealing Syrian oil and acting as an aggressor. Russia is there by invitation and we aren't.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Thursday, July 6, 2023 6:17 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SITREP 7/4/23: Final Hour of Zelensky's Terror Ploy
Simplicius The Thinker
Jul 4, 2023


The most exigent matter on the table is once again the brewing Zaporozhye plant showdown. It’s now believed by some that Zelensky is planning to carry out the ZNPP falseflag in the next few days on the eve of the big NATO summit in Vilnius, which is on July 12. The purpose would be to galvanize the NATO members and shape the entire policy discussion of the summit around Ukraine and the “nuclear disaster”.

For such a plan to work, the ZNPP would have to be blown well in advance to give it at least a few days lead time to shape the proper narrative of ‘fall out’ and nuclear consequences which can be used as the catalyst to bring reluctant NATO members to heel and cement their solidarity with Ukraine, as well as ideally issue some major demarche like the fabled activation of ‘Article 5’ Ukraine so breathlessly dreams about.

There’ve been a variety of developments in this direction. Firstly, a special American nuclear-sniffing plane has arrived in Europe “just in time”...



https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-7423-final-hour-of-zelensky
s


The only thing I sniff is a false flag.

Kiev can't actually create a nuclear emergency at the ZNPP, but they can create the appearance of an emergency by launching a Totchka2 or similar, with a warhead laced with radioactive waste.

We may be in for another "WMD! Assad gassed his own people! Quaddafi massacred his own people!" and "Gulf of Tonkin".

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, July 8, 2023 7:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

The only thing I sniff is a false flag.

Kiev can't actually create a nuclear emergency at the ZNPP, but they can create the appearance of an emergency by launching a Totchka2 or similar, with a warhead laced with radioactive waste.

We may be in for another "WMD! Assad gassed his own people! Quaddafi massacred his own people!" and "Gulf of Tonkin".

Russian occupation authorities continue to restrict international monitors’ access to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Raphael Grossi reported on July 7 that IAEA monitors have gained more access at the ZNPP since July 5 but still cannot reach the roofs of the reactor buildings, where Ukrainian officials have warned Russian forces may have placed objects resembling explosive devices.[48] Grossi stated that the IAEA submitted an official request to the Russian occupation leadership of the ZNPP for access to the nuclear reactor containment unit roofs.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-7-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, July 8, 2023 12:34 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Why is the US willing to send Ukraine cluster munitions? Short answer: either give the cluster munitions to Ukraine or else dispose of the obsolete munitions by burning them.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+does+military+dispose+of+ammunitio
n


For more than a year the U.S. has dipped into its own stocks of traditional 155 howitzer munitions and sent more than 2 million rounds to Ukraine. Allies across the globe have provided hundreds of thousands more.

A 155 mm round can strike targets 15 to 20 miles (24 to 32 kilometers) away, making them a munition of choice for Ukrainian ground troops trying to hit enemy targets from a distance. Ukrainian forces are burning through thousands of rounds a day battling the Russians.

Yehor Cherniev, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, told reporters at a German Marshall Fund event in the U.S. this spring that Kyiv would likely need to fire 7,000 to 9,000 of the rounds daily in intensified counteroffensive fighting. Providing that many puts substantial pressure on U.S. and allied stocks.

The cluster bomb is an attractive option because it would help Ukraine destroy more targets with fewer rounds, and since the U.S. hasn’t used them in conflict since Iraq, it has large amounts of them in storage it can access quickly, said Ryan Brobst, a research analyst for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

A March 2023 letter from top House and Senate Republicans to the Biden administration said the U.S. may have as many as 3 million cluster munitions available for use, and urged the White House to send the munitions to alleviate pressure on U.S. war supplies.

“Cluster munitions are more effective than unitary artillery shells because they inflict damage over a wider area,” Brobst said. “This is important for Ukraine as they try to clear heavily fortified Russian positions.”

Tapping into the U.S. stores of cluster munitions could address Ukraine’s shell shortage and alleviate pressure on the 155 mm stockpiles in the U.S. and elsewhere, Brobst said.

More at https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-cluster-munition-war-7332fa8
6b3c52d1ea8d63f92a7d5c2cb


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, July 8, 2023 1:23 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


but... but... but... biden* called them a 'war crime', didn't he?

unlike russian cluster munitions which self-defuse in 24 hours, USA cluster munitions persist for a long time, littering the landscape and making normal civilian life dangerous.

sigh.

and weren't we the ones whinging about radioactive fallout, even as britain was providing depleted uranium shells?

NEVER expect the moral high ground from our fearless leaders and allies. it's all about expediency.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, July 8, 2023 1:33 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


yanno, the one good thing about SECOND is that i don't have to diligently scan the M$M to see what bullshit they're spewing on any particular day. all i need to do is come here to get the propaganda du jour.

russia is a gas station masquerading as a country
russia is running out of weapons
russians are slavering hordes of cannibalistic mass murderers
russia doesn't know how to fight wars
russia's economy is in tatters, tatters, i tell you!
NATO is more united than ever
russia is isolated from the 'world' economy
putin is an iron-fisted tyrant
russia needs to be 'decolonized' (i.e broken up) and absorbed
russia is committing war crimes in ukraine
russia is suffering massive casulties
ukraine is winning! endlessly winning!
russia blew up nordstream
russia blew up the nova kakhova dam
russia is going to blow up ZNPP
putin's government is cracking
this war is all about freedom and democracy
saint zelenskiy is a freedom fighter
ukraine just needs more weapons and more money!

did i miss any?


recycled ad nauseum.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Sunday, July 9, 2023 7:19 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
but... but... but... biden* called them a 'war crime', didn't he?

unlike russian cluster munitions which self-defuse in 24 hours, USA cluster munitions persist for a long time, littering the landscape and making normal civilian life dangerous.

sigh.

and weren't we the ones whinging about radioactive fallout, even as britain was providing depleted uranium shells?

NEVER expect the moral high ground from our fearless leaders and allies. it's all about expediency.

Signym, you'd have a worthy argument if both of the following were true:
1) Russia was not using cluster munitions in Ukraine
2) Ukraine would be firing its cluster munitions onto Russian territory.

Ukraine will receive obsolete US cluster munitions that will be used within Ukraine. If Ukrainians fire those, then the consequences on Ukrainian children completely lie with Ukraine, not with Biden. And if Ukraine spreads depleted uranium around Ukraine, the consequences completely lie with Ukraine, not with the UK supplying the depleted uranium.

The United States announced a new military aid package for Ukraine that includes cluster munitions on July 7. The $800 million aid package includes dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICMs), and more ammunition for Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS MLRS systems.[7] US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US is providing cluster munitions to Ukraine due to the “urgency of the moment” to equip Ukrainian forces with artillery ammunition to use against Russian military targets during the counteroffensive.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-assess
ment-july-8-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, July 9, 2023 7:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
yanno, the one good thing about SECOND is that i don't have to diligently scan the M$M to see what bullshit they're spewing on any particular day. all i need to do is come here to get the propaganda du jour.
. . .

did i miss any?


recycled ad nauseum.

You failed to include this reason:

The Russians murdered 62 million Russians. The Russians murdered 4 million Ukrainians. The Russians invaded Ukraine. The Ukrainians feel strongly that Russians should die for that. In the meantime, for absolutely selfish reasons the US will spend a few billion dollars per month to supply ammo to Ukraine because, besides Russians being murderers, the Russians also have threatened for 70 years to invade the rest of Europe and nuke the USA and would have made those threats an actuality if the USA had not spent more than ten trillion dollars building nukes to deter the Russians from their often stated goals.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 10, 2023 1:22 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:

originally posted by SIGNYM:
yanno, the one good thing about SECOND is that i don't have to diligently scan the M$M to see what bullshit they're spewing on any particular day. all i need to do is come here to get the propaganda du jour.

russia is a gas station masquerading as a country
russia is running out of weapons
russians are slavering hordes of cannibalistic mass murderers
russia doesn't know how to fight wars
russia's economy is in tatters, tatters, i tell you!
NATO is more united than ever
russia is isolated from the 'world' economy
putin is an iron-fisted tyrant
russia needs to be 'decolonized' (i.e broken up) and absorbed
russia is committing war crimes in ukraine
russia is suffering massive casulties
ukraine is winning! endlessly winning!
russia blew up nordstream
russia blew up the nova kakhova dam
russia is going to blow up ZNPP
putin's government is cracking
this war is all about freedom and democracy
saint zelenskiy is a freedom fighter
ukraine just needs more weapons and more money!
. . .
did i miss any?
recycled ad nauseum.

SECOND: You failed to include this reason:

The Russians murdered 62 million Russians.

Aside from being counterfactual, that's irrational.

counterfactual: go to any mainstream source and look up 'russian deaths under stalin' i know i did. no source that i could find had anywhere nea that number.

and where's the logic in 'russian killed 'x' number of russians so we should kill more'?
being counterfactual and irrational makes it a good propagnada point!

Quote:

The Russians murdered 4 million Ukrainians.
numbers are disputed, but true

Quote:

The Russians invaded Ukraine.
true.

Quote:

The Ukrainians feel strongly that Russians should die for that.
not true. many ukrainians are fighting alongside russians

Quote:

In the meantime, for absolutely selfish reasons the US will spend a few billion dollars per month to supply ammo to Ukraine because, besides Russians being murderers, the Russians also have threatened for 70 years to invade the rest of Europe and nuke the USA
not true.

since it doesn't matter to the west - or SECOND- whether propaganda points are true or not, i suppose they ALL make useable propaganda!

well, now i can add to that list of propaganda and not have to bother reading any more of SECOND'S posts.

just wake me up, SECOND, if you come across a new one.


-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, July 10, 2023 6:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

just wake me up, SECOND, if you come across a new one.

Russia killed 62 million of its own citizens.
From the book Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF
/

1 61,911,000 Victims: Utopianism Empowered, 1917-1987

2 3,284,000 Victims: The Civil War Period, 1917-1922

3 2,200,000 Victims: The NEP Period 1923-1928

4 11,440,000 Victims: The Collectivization Period, 1929-1935

5 4,345,000 Victims: The Great Terror Period 1936-1938

6 5,104,000 Victims: Pre-World War II Period 1939-June 1941

7 13,053,000 Victims: World War II Period, June 1941-1945

8 15,613,000 Victims: Postwar and Stalin’s Twilight Period, 1945-1953

9 6,872,000 Victims: Post-Stalin Period, 1954-1987

Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 10, 2023 6:31 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge on July 9. Crimean Occupation Head Sergei Aksyonov claimed that Russian air defense systems shot down a cruise missile in the Kerch area, and Crimean Occupation Ministry of Transport reportedly temporarily stopped traffic over the bridge resulting in a 3.5km to 6km traffic jam.[72] Russian milbloggers shared footage of Russian air defense systems activating but it is unclear what weapon these systems shot down.[73] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger doubted Aksyonov’s claim about Russian forces shooting down a cruise missile, noting that Ukrainian aircraft would need to launch a missile from a dangerously close position near the frontline.[74]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-9-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 10, 2023 7:49 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


you have a habit of quoting psychos, SECOND. publication doesn't mean it's true, or credible. just look at how many bibles are published. i looked up 'deaths under stalin' specifically, and i looked at more than one source. exclude wartime deaths (wwii wasn't started by stalin) in any tally.

Quote:

... a research paper by Georgian historian Roy Aleksandrovich Medvedev published in the weekly tabloid Argumenti i Fakti estimated that the death toll directly attributable to Stalin’s rule amounted to some 20 million lives ...
In his book, “Unnatural Deaths in the U.S.S.R.: 1928-1954,” I.G. Dyadkin estimated that the USSR suffered 56 to 62 million "unnatural deaths" during that period, with 34 to 49 million directly linked to Stalin [i.e probably excluding wwii] ...British historian Norman Davies counted 50 million killed between 1924-53 [excluding wwii?]... Alexander Nikolaevich Yakovlev, a Soviet politician and historian, estimated 35 million deaths [excluding wwii?] ...


https://www.ibtimes.com/how-many-people-did-joseph-stalin-kill-1111789

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Monday, July 10, 2023 10:00 AM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

yanno, the one good thing about SECOND is that i don't have to diligently scan the M$M to see what bullshit they're spewing on any particular day. all i need to do is come here to get the propaganda du jour.

russia is a gas station masquerading as a country
russia is running out of weapons
russians are slavering hordes of cannibalistic mass murderers
russia doesn't know how to fight wars
russia's economy is in tatters, tatters, i tell you!
NATO is more united than ever
russia is isolated from the 'world' economy
putin is an iron-fisted tyrant
russia needs to be 'decolonized' (i.e broken up) and absorbed
russia is committing war crimes in ukraine
russia is suffering massive casulties
ukraine is winning! endlessly winning!
russia blew up nordstream
russia blew up the nova kakhova dam
russia is going to blow up ZNPP
putin's government is cracking
this war is all about freedom and democracy
saint zelenskiy is a freedom fighter
ukraine just needs more weapons and more money!

did i miss any?






When it comes to Russia there is always more that can be negatively said. Still, Second did a good job exposing much of what is current.

T


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Monday, July 10, 2023 10:11 AM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

just wake me up, SECOND, if you come across a new one.

Russia killed 62 million of its own citizens.
From the book Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF
/

1 61,911,000 Victims: Utopianism Empowered, 1917-1987

2 3,284,000 Victims: The Civil War Period, 1917-1922

3 2,200,000 Victims: The NEP Period 1923-1928

4 11,440,000 Victims: The Collectivization Period, 1929-1935

5 4,345,000 Victims: The Great Terror Period 1936-1938

6 5,104,000 Victims: Pre-World War II Period 1939-June 1941

7 13,053,000 Victims: World War II Period, June 1941-1945

8 15,613,000 Victims: Postwar and Stalin’s Twilight Period, 1945-1953

9 6,872,000 Victims: Post-Stalin Period, 1954-1987

Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF
/

https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly





Looks like sig agrees with you 2. And it's a damning account of Russia. History shows Russia is and has always been, amongst the worst of the worst. The most corrupt, bad, evil, and morally ill.

T


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Monday, July 10, 2023 2:08 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
you have a habit of quoting . . .

6,872,000 Victims: Post-Stalin Period, 1954-1987

With Stalin’s death, the terror was gradually alleviated, though not really ended until the 1980s under Gorbachev. Beria, Stalin’s chief enforcer and head of the KGB, was executed; many other lesser lights were purged.1

The “crimes” of the Stalin years, particularly the Great Terror (in which, be it remembered, top party members were executed) were secretly revealed by Khrushchev. As mentioned in the previous chapter, the camp population was gradually reduced and the camp regime improved in the post-Stalin 1950s. However, the death camps at Kolyma still continued into the early 1960s, when they were also subject to reform, and perhaps largely closed by the middle 1960s.2

The overall camp deathrate also was gradually reduced.3 Commissions were sent to all camps to review sentences with the authority to release prisoners. Amnesties were declared. And the average citizen gradually became more secure in what he could say and do.

But all this was relative. Freedom of thought and expression, security from arbitrary arrest and imprisonment, the right to a fair trial, are not yet guaranteed to the Soviet citizen, even under Gorbachev. For example, in April 1989 the Soviet Presidium issued a decree making it illegal to insult or discredit the government.4 Until recently, citizens who spoke out or demonstrated against the party could yet end up in labor camps, possibly to die from any of a number of causes with which the reader of Solzhenitsyn has become familiar,5 not the least of which is being beaten or confined in a punishment cell. Even in reference to the late 1960s, Solzhenitsyn wrote that camps differed from Stalin’s not in regime, but in composition—there were no longer many millions of those sentenced for political reasons, or for no reason at all.6 In fact, numerous camp inmates had written Solzhenitsyn to point out that their conditions in the middle 1960s were just as bad as under Stalin.7

Moreover, while improved, the diet still barely sustained life, especially in strict regime camps. As late as 1977, a prisoner got 2,600 calories, 2,100 on a punishment diet, and 1,300 in the strict-punishment cells. Ignoring the diet’s deficiency in vitamins and fats, in calories alone it was far below the international standard of 3,100 to 3,900 calories for a man working a very active, eight-hour day.8

In addition, something new was added for the especially important political prisoners. They often were interned in psychiatric hospitals for the insane, where they were kept under pain-inducing or mind-numbing drugs.9

As late as 1982, the American CIA claimed that there were at least 4,000,000 prisoners, including 10,000 prisoners involved in forced labor.10 But these numbers may be on the low side. In the early 1980s, a former senior member of the Supreme Soviet who was in camp for bribery calculated that Soviet prisons and camps held about 5,000,000, with an additional 2,000,000 in investigative prisons waiting for trial or review of their sentences, and another 6,000,000 not in camps or prisons but doing mild forms of forced labor.11

The 1983-87 camp population was probably 4,000,000, even possibly as high as 5,000,000, inmates. The number of political prisoners can only be guessed but was likely in five figures.12 Also, many alleged criminals were truly political prisoners (an anti-Soviet nuclear arms demonstrator may have been sentenced to five years for “hooliganism,” a person caught trying to flee the Soviet Union over border barricades may have gotten ten years for treason).

For 1987 or early 1988, the CIA estimated that there still were 4,000,000 prisoners. Yuri Orlov, the former head of the Helsinki Monitoring Group, claimed that there were 5,000,000. Moreover, there were still claims that the courts had a quota to fill for forced labor.13 And there is still a duty to work. Those not doing socially useful work, which is work legally contracted by the government or an enterprise sanctioned and registered by the government, are defined as parasites and subject to up to two years in prison.14

From the book Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from http://libgen.is/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 10, 2023 2:27 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by THG:

Looks like sig agrees with you 2. And it's a damning account of Russia. History shows Russia is and has always been, amongst the worst of the worst. The most corrupt, bad, evil, and morally ill.

T


To "waste" means to kill. Russians have wasted Russian lives by the tens of millions. The Ukrainians are aware that Russians are wasteful. The Ukrainians fight the Russians because they know their lives will be wasted if Russians control them.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 10, 2023 3:30 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by THG:

Looks like sig agrees with you 2. And it's a damning account of Russia. History shows Russia is and has always been, amongst the worst of the worst. The most corrupt, bad, evil, and morally ill.

T


To "waste" means to kill. Russians have wasted Russian lives by the tens of millions. The Ukrainians are aware that Russians are wasteful. The Ukrainians fight the Russians because they know their lives will be wasted if Russians control them.





I'm sure that is a part of it.

T


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Monday, July 10, 2023 4:40 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by THG:

I'm sure that is a part of it.

T


There are economic and health comparisons that are easy to make between wasteful Russia and careful Canada. Russia looks bad on both measures because of its philosophy of life, or of death, whichever you prefer to call it.

The Russian economy is wasteful compared to the Canadian economy: https://www.google.com/search?q=Compare+gnp+russia+canada

GDP per capita Russia $18,388.40 Canada $71,212.86
https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/fact_sheet-fiche_document
aire/russia-russie.aspx?lang=eng


A Russian's lifespan is short compared to a Canadian: https://www.google.com/search?q=compare+Russia+Canada+lifespan

In Russia, the average life expectancy is 72 years (67 years for men, 78 years for women) as of 2022. In Canada, that number is 84 years (82 years for men, 86 years for women) as of 2022.

I don't think the Russians can truthfully blame their sad lives on the US, especially when Canadians do so well despite living adjacent to the US. There is something that shall remain unnamed intrinsically wrong with Russia.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 10, 2023 4:51 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by THG:

I'm sure that is a part of it.

T


There are economic and health comparisons that are easy to make between wasteful Russia and careful Canada. Russia looks bad on both measures because of its philosophy of life, or of death, whichever you prefer to call it.

The Russian economy is wasteful compared to the Canadian economy: https://www.google.com/search?q=Compare+gnp+russia+canada

GDP per capita Russia $18,388.40 Canada $71,212.86
https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/fact_sheet-fiche_document
aire/russia-russie.aspx?lang=eng


A Russian's lifespan is short compared to a Canadian: https://www.google.com/search?q=compare+Russia+Canada+lifespan

In Russia, the average life expectancy is 72 years (67 years for men, 78 years for women) as of 2022. In Canada, that number is 84 years (82 years for men, 86 years for women) as of 2022.

I don't think the Russians can truthfully blame their sad lives on the US, especially when Canadians do so well despite living adjacent to the US. There is something that shall remain unnamed intrinsically wrong with Russia.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly





Russia's run by a Mafia strongman. It's what Trump wants to do here.



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Monday, July 10, 2023 9:41 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by THG:

Russia's run by a Mafia strongman. It's what Trump wants to do here.



Russia's problem is succinctly summarized -- Russians are half-asses. For example:

Half of Russian Losses Could Have Been Prevented With Proper First Aid

Monday's U.K. MOD update cited a claim by the Kalashnikov company's combat medicine training division that it was likely that "up to 50 percent of Russian combat fatalities could have been prevented with proper first aid."

The leading causes of preventable fatalities and amputations were slow evacuations and "the inappropriate use of the crude in-service Russian combat tourniquet," the MOD said.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-losses-first-aid-prevented-ukraine-war
-1811860


Russians need to, but won't, get their shit together. Whether making real plans for replacing their ruler at predetermined times and regular intervals or evacuating their wounded, Russians just haven't got their shit together. The Russians could do themselves a favor by sobering up and acting with common sense instead of like they are raging lunatics howling for blood (Russia made another death threat to nuke the US). Russians are nuts.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 10, 2023 10:01 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by THG:

Russia's run by a Mafia strongman. It's what Trump wants to do here.



Russia's problem is succinctly summarized -- Russians are half-asses. For example:

Half of Russian Losses Could Have Been Prevented With Proper First Aid

Monday's U.K. MOD update cited a claim by the Kalashnikov company's combat medicine training division that it was likely that "up to 50 percent of Russian combat fatalities could have been prevented with proper first aid."

The leading causes of preventable fatalities and amputations were slow evacuations and "the inappropriate use of the crude in-service Russian combat tourniquet," the MOD said.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-losses-first-aid-prevented-ukraine-war
-1811860


Russians need to, but won't, get their shit together. Whether making real plans for replacing their ruler at predetermined times and regular intervals or evacuating their wounded, Russians just haven't got their shit together. The Russians could do themselves a favor by sobering up and acting with common sense instead of like they are raging lunatics howling for blood (Russia made another death threat to nuke the US). Russians are nuts.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly




This is the type of dumbassery that comes out of people who view an entire country as a single hive-mind.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Tuesday, July 11, 2023 12:12 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Yanno, that's exactly what people say about Ukrainian casualties.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Tuesday, July 11, 2023 7:34 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

This is the type of dumbassery that comes out of people who view an entire country as a single hive-mind.

I don't know every Trump supporter, but every Trump supporter I know was an untrustworthy, dishonest, lazy, lying, drunken asshole before Trump came along. My experience with Trump supporters doesn't "prove" that all the many millions of Trump supporters are participants in a single Hive-mind but sorting out who is and is not will waste my time and energy without giving me anything in return. The same is true about Russians. It is not worth the time and energy to sort out who is what as far as Russians. Kill them, kill them all, which is why the US should send all stockpiled cluster bombs to Ukraine so that Ukrainians can explosively fix what is wrong with a few, but not all, Russians.

Ukraine Burning Through Ammo Alarms NATO as Divisions Emerge Over War
Ellie Cook

Ukraine's NATO backers are split over the U.S. supply of cluster munitions, which will be a much-needed boost for Kyiv's ammunition stockpiles as it forges on with its counteroffensive.

Cluster bombs will help Ukraine keep up with its sky-high ammunition needs, experts have told Newsweek, but several of Kyiv's supporters have balked at the provision of the controversial munitions.

On Friday, the U.S. said it was supplying dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM), a form of cluster bomb that disperses submunitions over a wide area. They are considered an effective military weapon, but they can pose a danger to civilians.

U.S. President Joe Biden told CNN that Washington had made the "difficult" decision because "the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition."

In a media briefing, Colin Kahl, a senior Pentagon official, said the new military package – which also included more ammunition for Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS – meant the U.S. could furnish Ukraine "with hundreds of thousands of additional artillery ammunition immediately."

"By providing Ukraine with DPICM artillery ammunition, we will ensure that the Ukrainian military has sufficient artillery ammunition for many months to come," Kahl added.

Although there are no figures available for how much ammunition Ukraine has left, what it needs, or how much it has used, Kyiv has repeatedly called for ammunition supplies from its Western backers.

Sending cluster munitions will boost Ukraine's counteroffensive efforts in the eastern and southern parts of the country, experts told Newsweek.

Ukraine's incredibly high ammunition consumption "far outstrips present Ukrainian and Western ammunition production," according to Frederik Mertens, of The Hague Center for Strategic Studies. In February, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance's "unprecedented support" was "consuming an enormous quantity of Allied ammunition, and depleting our stockpiles."

Any weapon that boosts Ukraine's ammunition stockpiles is useful from the Kyiv military's point of view, Mertens told Newsweek, "especially in this crucial phase of the war when Western support still is firm, and Kyiv is on the offensive."

Cluster munitions will give Ukraine's artillery units "a far superior capability to deal with hostile mechanized units," he added. Cluster bombs spread submunitions over a far greater area than other ammunition, and they are more effective against hard targets.

This "really enhances the abilities of the Ukrainian artillery to support their offensive," Mertens argued. Ukraine at the same time receives additional ammunition through this military package, but these munitions also go further than other ammunition, which is then conserved for other targets.

Cluster munitions are "very useful for clearing out large numbers of infantry," Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, previously told Newsweek. This would be "of considerable value" for Ukraine against Russian forces that are "increasingly reliant on expendable infantry troops," he continued.

But it's also "plausible that no other rounds can readily be supplied," according to military and defense expert David Hambling.

"Western materiel support has lagged Ukrainian requests, often by many months," he told Newsweek. "Not getting the equipment and ammunition they need is unlikely to lose the war – but it will very much slow down the progress of the counteroffensive" and rack up higher casualties, he added.

The move to supply cluster munitions will not have been an easy one, as Ukraine will be using these munitions on their own territory knowing its civilians could be placed in harm's way, Hambling said.

They are banned in more than 120 countries, as they can endanger civilians and detonate long after they have been deployed. But the U.S., Ukraine and Russia aren't signed up to a treaty prohibiting their production, use or stockpiling.

Kahl told the media following the U.S. announcement that the DPICM rounds heading for Ukraine have an "extremely low" dud rate of less than 2.35 percent, referring to how often they fail to detonate as intended.

"Compare that to Russia, which has been using cluster munitions across Ukraine with dud rates of between 30 and 40 percent," Kahl told reporters.

Despite the military advantages, several NATO leaders showed discomfort over the decision. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the U.K. was a signatory to the convention banning cluster weapons and that it "discourages" their use.

British MP Tobias Ellwood, who heads up the U.K.'s Defence Committee in the House of Commons, said this was the "wrong call" and the U.S. should "reconsider."

New Zealand's Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said cluster munitions were "indiscriminate" weapons, adding they "cause huge damage to innocent people, potentially, and they can have a long-lasting effect as well."

Canada's government said it was "committed to putting an end to the effects cluster munitions have on civilians – particularly children," and Spain and Germany have also expressed their opposition to cluster bombs.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-ammunition-artillery-supplies-nato-cl
uster-munitions-1812127


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, July 11, 2023 12:36 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine Should NOT Be in NATO | Opinion

Daniel R. DePetris , fellow, Defense Priorities
On 7/10/23 at 5:00 AM EDT

Bringing Ukraine into NATO would scratch the itch of teaching Russia a lesson. But it would do nothing to end the war or shorten its duration—precisely the opposite. If Putin knows that Ukraine will be invited into the alliance after the war is over, he will have even more reason to fight in order to prevent that outcome.

Putin would be given two choices: lose and watch NATO's border with Russia get even longer than it is today (and courtesy of Finland's own entry into the alliance this year, the NATO-Russia border has already increased by more than 800 miles), or continue to pour men and resources into the conflict to win or at least maintain a stalemate. Any semblance of a diplomatic settlement to the war would evaporate.

The U.S. would also be burdening itself with another security commitment in Europe at a time when the center of gravity in U.S. foreign policy is now focused on Asia. Perhaps this would be necessary if Ukraine's security was an ingredient to ensuring that Europe remains whole, free, and largely at peace. But nobody can make this argument with a straight face. Russia couldn't invade or occupy a European country even if it wanted to. If that was true before the war in Ukraine began, it's even more true now, with tens of thousands of Russian troops dead, tens of thousands more wounded, and the Russian army reportedly losing half its combat power in about a year and a half. Europe can and should continue to aid Ukraine, but realistically, Europe simply doesn't need Ukraine as a formal ally to maintain its economic or military advantage over Russia.

It's past time for NATO to close the proverbial open door, not keep it open in perpetuity.

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.

More at https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-should-not-nato-opinion-1811669

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, July 12, 2023 7:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian elites flaunt their inhumanity

by Alexander J. Motyl, opinion contributor - 07/11/23 2:00 PM ET

TV host Solovyov makes what amount to endorsements of genocide. Former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev blithely speaks of a nuclear apocalypse. The Bryansk Eparchy of the Russian Orthodox Church enjoined Russian soldiers to “to wipe the Ukrainian nation from the face of the earth.” One leading Russian separatist in the Donbas, Pavel Gubarev, warned Ukrainians to recognize that they’re really Russians or else: “if you don’t want to be convinced by us, then we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as is necessary: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you. Until you understand that you are possessed and need to be cured.” Television personality Anton Krasovsky opined that Ukrainian children who don’t like Russians should be drowned or incinerated.

This, then, is what over two decades of Putin’s misrule has wrought in Russia. The regime’s normalization of brutality, violence and criminality has either created or reinforced Russian cultural norms that both countenance and endorse crimes against humanity.

More at https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4089556-russian-elites-flaun
t-their-inhumanity
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, July 12, 2023 9:34 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine Needs NATO—and NATO Needs Ukraine, Too
Arguments against admitting Ukraine into the alliance aren’t convincing.

Garry Kasparov
Jul 11, 2023

Last week, an opinion article in Foreign Affairs argued for locking Ukraine out of NATO. The authors, Justin Logan and Joshua Shifrinson of the Cato Institute, offered five claims to support their arguments. But as is typical of the genre, their article is long on opinion and short on facts. Because articles like this are so useful in Kremlin propagandists’ disinformation campaigns, it is worth refuting Logan and Shifrinson’s five claims one by one.

Claim 1: Russia does not threaten NATO. “The idea that Russia could pose a serious threat to Poland, much less to France or Germany, is outlandish.”

This claim is so divorced from reality, so historically illiterate, that it shocks. For more than fifteen years, Vladimir Putin has waged war on NATO, directly and indirectly. When democratic Georgia sought NATO membership of its own free will, Putin invaded. When Ukrainian citizens marched in the pro-European Maidan Revolution (the Revolution of Dignity) in 2014, Putin invaded Ukraine. Putin and his Wagner Group proxies carpet-bombed hospitals in Syria, on the border of another NATO member, Turkey. And they armed coups around the world, with the aim of undermining democracy everywhere.

Russian state agents have murdered British citizens, attempted to conduct a coup in a country that had already signed a NATO accession protocol, kidnapped an Estonian border guard, and are currently holding multiple American hostages. Russian influence operations left fingerprints on the pro-Brexit campaign in the United Kingdom and Yevgeny Prigozhin rose in the Kremlin’s mafia ranks by helping Putin interfere with U.S. elections. And when Putin deemed NATO nations weak—mistakenly, this time—he invaded Ukraine again. Every action Putin has taken, every person Putin’s forces have killed in his bloody-minded fixation on undermining NATO, demonstrates clearly his intentions. If you are still fooled by Putin, I cannot help you.

Claim 2: “If Ukraine were in NATO, the United States could be pushed to come to Ukraine’s defense by deploying troops and even threatening to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine’s behalf.”
Claim 3: The United States would not defend Ukraine. “Extending Article 5 protections to Ukraine could also undermine their overall credibility.”

These two claims are linked, so we can refute them together. First, it is important to clarify that Ukraine is not asking for membership today. It is asking, by virtue of all the blood it has shed and the benefits it offers to NATO, for membership in the future, after Ukrainian forces have liberated their lands and people.

More at https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/ukraine-needs-nato-and-nato-needs-ukrain
e


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, July 12, 2023 9:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Ukraine Should NOT Be in NATO | Opinion

Daniel R. DePetris , fellow, Defense Priorities
On 7/10/23 at 5:00 AM EDT

Bringing Ukraine into NATO would scratch the itch of teaching Russia a lesson. But it would do nothing to end the war or shorten its duration—precisely the opposite. If Putin knows that Ukraine will be invited into the alliance after the war is over, he will have even more reason to fight in order to prevent that outcome.

Putin would be given two choices: lose and watch NATO's border with Russia get even longer than it is today (and courtesy of Finland's own entry into the alliance this year, the NATO-Russia border has already increased by more than 800 miles), or continue to pour men and resources into the conflict to win or at least maintain a stalemate. Any semblance of a diplomatic settlement to the war would evaporate.

The U.S. would also be burdening itself with another security commitment in Europe at a time when the center of gravity in U.S. foreign policy is now focused on Asia. Perhaps this would be necessary if Ukraine's security was an ingredient to ensuring that Europe remains whole, free, and largely at peace. But nobody can make this argument with a straight face. Russia couldn't invade or occupy a European country even if it wanted to. If that was true before the war in Ukraine began, it's even more true now, with tens of thousands of Russian troops dead, tens of thousands more wounded, and the Russian army reportedly losing half its combat power in about a year and a half. Europe can and should continue to aid Ukraine, but realistically, Europe simply doesn't need Ukraine as a formal ally to maintain its economic or military advantage over Russia.

It's past time for NATO to close the proverbial open door, not keep it open in perpetuity.

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.

More at https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-should-not-nato-opinion-1811669

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly




I'm going to ignore whatever dumbass reply you left in the previous post because I actually appreciate this one coming from you.

That is... assuming you agree with it, of course.

Right. That's what I've been saying all along.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Wednesday, July 12, 2023 9:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You want to see an invasion that is happening now that is actually scary?



Fuck Russia. Fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 9:16 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Ukraine Should NOT Be in NATO | Opinion

If Putin knows that Ukraine will be invited into the alliance after the war is over, he will have even more reason to fight in order to prevent that outcome.




I'm going to ignore whatever dumbass reply you left in the previous post because I actually appreciate this one coming from you.

That is... assuming you agree with it, of course.

Right. That's what I've been saying all along.

I am pretty sure you missed the point, which is "If Putin knows". Don't let Putin know. But once the Ukrainian War is over, then NATO would announce that Ukraine can join. Putin will be so angry at being "tricked" and declare that he was "promised" that Ukraine would never join NATO. Nobody with authority gave Putin that promise, but Putin will say it despite that.

At this moment, not even one of the 31 NATO countries has sent even a single platoon of soldiers to Ukraine because none want to fight there. NATO can't forbid its members from sending an army, so none of the NATO countries can use that as an excuse for not sending even one soldier there. For sure, some Prime Ministers of NATO countries send obsolete weapons from their stockpiles because that will win votes in the next election, but that's their limit and their motivation for doing the least thing they can think of. They stopped buying Russian fuel and stopped sending tens of billions of dollars to Russia each month to please voters who would disapprove of a Prime Minister sending money to Russia as it murders Ukrainians.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 9:18 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Moscow’s military leadership has reportedly dismissed Major-General Ivan Popov, commander-in-chief of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army stationed in southern Ukraine, over his concerns for troops fighting without rest and criticism of Russian battlefield strategy.

Popov addressed soldiers in a voice message that was circulated on the Telegram messaging app on Wednesday saying he had been relieved of his post for criticising Russia’s military inefficiencies in Ukraine.

“I drew attention to the greatest tragedy of modern war – the lack of artillery reconnaissance and counter-strikes and the multiple deaths and injuries caused by enemy artillery,” Popov said, according to the message circulated on the Telegram channel of Duma legislator Andrei Gurulyov.

Popov, whose unit was fighting in the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhia, was harshly critical of his superiors.

“The soldiers of the Ukrainian armed forces could not break through our front, but from behind the commander-in-chief dealt us a treacherous blow by decapitating the army at the most critical and tense moment,” Popov said in his message.

Earlier on Wednesday, other Telegram channels had reported that Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov had called Popov an “alarmist” and replaced him.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/13/russia-general-in-ukraine-rem
oved-over-strategy-criticism-report


Popov’s removal was reportedly linked to his complaints over Moscow’s failure to rotate and rest Russian troops from the front lines in Ukraine. Popov had told Chief of Staff Gerasimov that his troops had been in battle for extended periods of time and had suffered significant casualties and were in need of rotation away from the front. Gerasimov reportedly accused Popov of alarmism and blackmailing the Russian military command. Russian forces lack operational reserves that would allow them to carry out rotations of personnel defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives. Popov’s dismissal and criticism of the Russian military leadership echo the anger expressed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of Russia’s Wagner mercenary forces, who had for months berated top commanders in Moscow for poor military planning before launching a short-lived uprising by his mercenaries in June to remove senior Russian defence official.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 1:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

The Joe Biden administration has come out in opposition to Congress creating an inspector general’s office to oversee weapons transfers to the Ukrainian government.

The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes a provision that will create an inspector general for the proxy war in Ukraine modeled after the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR).

SIGAR John Sopko detailed the rampant American failures during the Afghan War for years. His quarterly reports routinely embarrassed American officials who tried to portray the situation in Afghanistan as improving.

Sopko has warned that an inspector general’s official for the Ukraine war needed to be established to prevent a repeat of the situation American aid created in Afghanistan, which saw massive corruption. “There is an understandable desire amid a crisis to focus on getting money out the door and to worry about oversight later, but too often that creates more problems than it solves,” he wrote in a report submitted to Congress earlier this year. “Given the ongoing conflict and the unprecedented volume of weapons being transferred to Ukraine, the risk that some equipment ends up on the black market or in the wrong hands is likely unavoidable.”

Sopko continued, “You’re bound to get corrupt elements of not only the Ukrainian or the host government, but also of US government contractors or other third party contractors to try to steal the money. There’s just so much money going in, and it’s hard to keep track of.”

The White House argued that creating an inspector general for Ukraine was unnecessary as the Department of Defense was already monitoring transfers.

But wasn't the DoD 'monitoring' xfers in Afghanistan too?

Quote:

“This expansion is both unnecessary and unprecedented, as oversight of US assistance for the benefit of a country’s people is already provided by the Inspectors General for the Department of State and United States Agency for International Development,” a White House statement said.
AID. It's presented as a humaitarian agency but in reality is a CIA front. I know somebody who worked there.

Quote:

However, a report published in June by the Pentagon inspector general found several issues with US weapons shipments to Ukraine. “DoD personnel did not have the required accountability of the thousands of defense items that they received and transferred at Jasionka, [Poland],” the report explained. “We observed that DoD personnel did not fully implement their standard operating procedures to account for defense items and could not confirm the quantities of defense items received against the quantity of items shipped for three of five shipments we observed.”

The US has shipped tens [hundreds] of billions worth of weapons to Ukraine since the Russian invasion last year. While Washington and Kiev maintain all weapons are being used on the battlefield, governments in Europe, the Middle East and Africa report weapons from Ukraine have been used by criminals and militants.

Additionally, American weapons were used by openly neo-Nazi fighters carrying out cross-border attacks within the Russian mainland. Initially, American officials said they were “skeptical” of reports that the arms these militias used had been provided by the US. However, officials later admitted that, indeed American weapons were used during the raid.


https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/white-house-looks-to-prevent-ove
rsight-of-ukraine-aid
/

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Thursday, July 13, 2023 2:45 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russia’s Chaotic Meltdown Over American Cluster Bombs Begins
SEE YOU SWEAT

The Kremlin’s response to news of the cluster munition delivery has panic written all over it.

Marcel Plichta, Updated Jul. 13, 2023 5:50AM EDT

Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu threatened to use their own cluster munitions against Ukraine, claiming that they had refrained from using them so far. Ha-ha-ha! Russians are such monstrous liars.

The Kremlin — unable to stymie the delivery of the munitions — has been left to respond using the usual playbook — with lies and showboating.

“It should be noted that Russia is armed with cluster munitions, as they say, for all occasions. At the same time, they are much more effective than American ones, their range is wider and more diverse,” Shoigu said this week, adding that Russian forces are taking “additional measures of an organizational and technical nature to protect personnel and equipment from striking elements of cluster munitions.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-is-already-melting-down-over-amer
ican-cluster-bombs-in-ukraine


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 3:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Ukraine Should NOT Be in NATO | Opinion

If Putin knows that Ukraine will be invited into the alliance after the war is over, he will have even more reason to fight in order to prevent that outcome.




I'm going to ignore whatever dumbass reply you left in the previous post because I actually appreciate this one coming from you.

That is... assuming you agree with it, of course.

Right. That's what I've been saying all along.

I am pretty sure you missed the point, which is "If Putin knows". Don't let Putin know. But once the Ukrainian War is over, then NATO would announce that Ukraine can join.



No. That was not at all the point.

Quote:

It's past time for NATO to close the proverbial open door, not keep it open in perpetuity.



Learn how to read.

You're a fucking idiot.

You're so stupid that you posted an article that is in 100% disagreement with your own stance on the issue because you can't bother to read anything past the headline and the first few paragraphs.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 4:34 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Learn how to read.

You're a fucking idiot.

You're so stupid that you posted an article that is in 100% disagreement with your own stance on the issue because you can't bother to read anything past the headline and the first few paragraphs.

NATO members are countries that despise Russia because Russians murder people by the tens of millions and steal their land. If Putin was informed now that Ukraine will join NATO, Russia will increase its murder rate of Ukrainians while it can.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 4:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Learn how to read.

You're a fucking idiot.

You're so stupid that you posted an article that is in 100% disagreement with your own stance on the issue because you can't bother to read anything past the headline and the first few paragraphs.

NATO members are countries that despise Russia because Russians murder people by the tens of millions and steal their land. If Putin was informed now that Ukraine will join NATO, Russia will increase its murder rate of Ukrainians while it can.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly




No shit. Not the point, retard.

That article you posted was 100% against your wishes for NATO and Ukraine, yet you posted it anyway because you are stupid.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 5:26 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

No shit. Not the point, retard.

That article you posted was 100% against your wishes for NATO and Ukraine, yet you posted it anyway because you are stupid.

1) None of the NATO countries have sent even one platoon of soldiers to Ukraine because all the governments are avoiding Russia for unstated reasons. Reasons could be fear, could be their army's lack of readiness, or could be election politics. If NATO allowed Ukraine to join today, all the countries have agreed to fight Russia if a NATO nation is attacked. Avoiding the fight while faking bravery/empathy is the first reason NATO has not invited Ukraine to join.

2) If NATO even offers an invitation to Ukraine for some unspecified date in the misty future, Russia will instantly increase its murder rate of Ukrainians in order to kill the maximum number before Ukraine joins. Not getting Ukrainians murdered is the second reason NATO has not yet invited Ukraine to join.

Because of both 1) and 2) Ukraine's entrance to NATO won't be announced until either after Russia can't retaliate against Ukraine or NATO nations get braver or some key elections have passed in member nations.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 6:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

No shit. Not the point, retard.

That article you posted was 100% against your wishes for NATO and Ukraine, yet you posted it anyway because you are stupid.

1) None of the NATO countries have sent even one platoon of soldiers to Ukraine because all the governments are avoiding Russia for unstated reasons. Reasons could be fear, could be their army's lack of readiness, or could be election politics. If NATO allowed Ukraine to join today, all the countries have agreed to fight Russia if a NATO nation is attacked. Avoiding the fight while faking bravery/empathy is the first reason NATO has not invited Ukraine to join.



Yes. That's VERY smart, because Fuck Ukraine.

Quote:

2) If NATO even offers an invitation to Ukraine for some unspecified date in the misty future, Russia will instantly increase its murder rate of Ukrainians in order to kill the maximum number before Ukraine joins. Not getting Ukrainians murdered is the second reason NATO has not yet invited Ukraine to join.


No shit.

Quote:

Because of both 1) and 2) Ukraine's entrance to NATO won't be announced until either after Russia can't retaliate against Ukraine or NATO nations get braver or some key elections have passed in member nations.


Or until Russia destroys Ukraine.

Ukraine should NEVER be invited into NATO. NATO shouldn't even exist anymore in the first place. The mere existence of NATO is what is getting Ukrainians killed.

And Putin knows all of this too. You think he's stupid? Even if NATO said flat out that it will never invite Ukraine to join, nobody is going to believe that shit.


And back to the point... You posted a story that contradicts what you want, thinking it was saying what you wanted it to say because you are a very stupid person.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 7:44 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more

By LORI HINNANT, HANNA ARHIROVA and VASILISA STEPANENKO
Published 11:24 PM CDT, July 12, 2023

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (AP) — The Ukrainian civilians woke long before dawn in the bitter cold, lined up for the single toilet and were loaded at gunpoint into the livestock trailer. They spent the next 12 hours or more digging trenches on the front lines for Russian soldiers.

Many were forced to wear overlarge Russian military uniforms that could make them a target, and a former city administrator trudged around in boots five sizes too big. By the end of the day, their hands curled into icy claws.

Nearby, in the occupied region of Zaporizhzhia, other Ukrainian civilians dug mass graves into the frozen ground for fellow prisoners who had not survived. One man who refused to dig was shot on the spot — yet another body for the grave.

Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law.

And Russia is planning to hold possibly thousands more. A Russian government document obtained by The Associated Press dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026.

In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in May allowing Russia to send people from territories with martial law, which includes all of occupied Ukraine, to those without, such as Russia. This makes it easier to deport Ukrainians who resist Russian occupation deep into Russia indefinitely, which has happened in multiple cases documented by the AP.

Many civilians are picked up for alleged transgressions as minor as speaking Ukrainian or simply being a young man in an occupied region, and are often held without charge. Others are charged as terrorists, combatants, or people who “resist the special military operation.” Hundreds are used for slave labor by Russia’s military, for digging trenches and other fortifications, as well as mass graves.

Torture is routine, including repeated electrical shocks, beatings that crack skulls and fracture ribs, and simulated suffocation. Many former prisoners told the AP they witnessed deaths. A United Nations report from late June documented 77 summary executions of civilian captives and the death of one man due to torture.

Russia does not acknowledge holding civilians at all, let alone its reasons for doing so. But the prisoners serve as future bargaining chips in exchanges for Russian soldiers, and the U.N. has said there is evidence of civilians being used as human shields near the front lines.

The AP spoke with dozens of people, including 20 former detainees, along with ex-prisoners of war, the families of more than a dozen civilians in detention, two Ukrainian intelligence officials and a government negotiator. Their accounts, as well as satellite imagery, social media, government documents and copies of letters delivered by the Red Cross, confirm a widescale Russian system of detention and abuse of civilians that stands in direct violation of the Geneva Conventions.

Much more at https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-prisons-civilians-torture-de
tainees-88b4abf2efbf383272eed9378be13c72


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 7:54 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

And back to the point... You posted a story that contradicts what you want, thinking it was saying what you wanted it to say because you are a very stupid person.

The story contradicts nothing I believe. Nothing. But you get confused by your weird-ass upside-down Trumptard belief system. By the way, all the Trumptards I know have a very loose grasp of reality, despite the silly fools thinking they grip reality firmly with both hands. They are butterfingers who keep dropping what they think they control.

Zelensky threw a fit upon learning that the Western leaders would not set a timetable for his country’s ascension to NATO membership. But really, this was never in the cards. The many reasons** why had been explained to him repeatedly. In any case, Zelensky quickly dropped his sour mood and thanked the NATO members for their stalwart support.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

** Before leaving for Europe, Biden laid out some, though far from all, of the reasons why now is not the time for Ukraine to join NATO or even for NATO to set a schedule. First, by the rules of the alliance, a nation can’t join unless its borders are secure (the members need to know exactly what they’re committing to defend, after all), and Ukraine’s borders are very much in flux. Second, nations must meet certain standards of anti-corruption, which Ukraine doesn’t quite, as yet.

Third, and most crucial: If Ukraine were to join now, then the other NATO countries would be committed, under Article 5 (an attack on one member must be treated as an attack on all) to send their troops and weapons to fight against Russia directly — in other words, to start World War III — and that’s something that Biden and the other leaders say they don’t want to do. As for setting a timetable, this would be at least imprudent. No one knows how this war will end, but there will probably be some sort of diplomatic settlement, and Ukraine’s status in or out of NATO may be a part, perhaps as a bargaining chip. (For instance, if the war goes badly, Kyiv may let Russia keep a sliver of Donbas territory in exchange for Ukrainian membership in NATO, or it may allow no Russian gains in exchange for some security arrangement that doesn’t involve NATO.) In any case, it is not in Ukraine’s interest to lock membership in now.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 8:13 PM

THG


Putin wanted to disarm Ukraine. What's happening instead is Ukraine and NATO are disarming Russia. Too funny...

T





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Friday, July 14, 2023 6:07 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


11 July 2023
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2023/07/realists-get
-wrong-ukraine-counteroffensive-russia


What realists get wrong about Ukraine’s counteroffensive

Critics such as John Mearsheimer are wrong to present the war as a simple artillery duel.

By Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London.

“Strategy is the art of making war upon the map.”
– Antoine-Henri Jomini

The Russo-Ukrainian War is all about territory. Russia wants to complete its occupation of the oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson; Ukraine seeks to liberate all occupied territories, including Crimea. This is what the game theorists call a “zero-sum game” – what one wins the others must lose. This feature of the war explains why a negotiated outcome is so difficult to achieve, why the current battles matter so much, and why those commenting on the war spend so much time staring at maps.

Another feature of the war is that the territory being vigorously defended is hard to take. The land that Russian forces are currently defending was mostly taken in the first month of the war. Since then, they have ceded much more than they have taken. The Russians have put enormous effort and resources into their offensives since April 2022, yet what has been gained, despite the enormously high cost, has been limited – especially since they have reduced the occupied cities to rubble in the process. This was the case with their most recent offensive, lasting from January to June, during which they wrecked the eastern towns of Soledar and Bakhmut. But largely failed elsewhere.

Ukrainian offensives have been more successful when facing Russian forces thinly spread and struggling with logistical and command difficulties; they have found it tougher advancing against well-prepared Russian defences. This is why there is so much anxiety surrounding the Ukrainian offensive, which has been underway for just over a month.

Ukrainians insist it is not yet in its highest gear because they have yet to commit the bulk of their fresher, better-equipped and more mobile forces. That is because before they reach a breakthrough phase – when they start retrieving territory at speed – they must first go through an attritional phase to degrade the Russian defenders’ capacity for resistance.

Though Ukrainian commanders may have hoped the influx of Western infantry vehicles and tanks would have made an early push through Russian lines possible, as Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman noted in March it was always unlikely that combat power alone would be sufficient to avoid this attritional phase.

A comparable operation planned by the Americans would use their air superiority to create a “permissive environment”. The enemy would be left so battered by days of air strikes that they would be unable to cope once the army moved against them. The retired Australian general and strategist Mick Ryan has reminded us that the 1991 Gulf War began with a 42-day air campaign, involving more than 100,000 sorties, before ground operations commenced. And in the 2003 invasion of Iraq 1,800 combat and support aircraft were used.

Ukraine does not enjoy any air advantage.
Before this war is over it may get American F-16 fighter jets, but not in time for the current offensive. It therefore needs a different strategy to the one that would come most naturally to the Pentagon.

A difficult start

The extent of the challenge became apparent on 8 June when Ukrainian forces made an early assault close to Mala Tokmachka on the Zaporizhzhia front, in the south-east of the country. It got caught by the density of the minefield it was trying to breach, leading to the loss of a number of vehicles. Images of the destruction, including Bradley fighting vehicles, were soon being widely circulated by pro-Russian bloggers, celebrating the failure of the Ukrainian offensive almost as soon as it started. On 13 June, Vladimir Putin, not normally one to comment in detail on operations, felt confident enough to assert that Ukraine had launched a “massive counteroffensive, using strategic reserves that were prepared for this task”. He acknowledged Russian losses of 54 tanks (higher than Western assessments) but claimed Ukraine had lost “over 160” tanks. Ukrainian casualties he put at ten times those suffered by Russia, and were “approaching a level that could be described as catastrophic”. This was a bold claim to make at such an early stage, and presumably reflects the optimistic gloss that Russia’s Ministry of Defence puts on all the news he gets from the front.

But even observers more sympathetic to Ukraine were nervous the campaign had started poorly. It was a sobering reminder that the Russian armed forces, for all their dysfunction, could also adapt to the demands of war and would not be pushovers. Press reporting noted, for example, improved Russian helicopter capabilities, particularly the Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopters, and upgraded Lancet drones.

On 15 June General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, observed that “this is a very difficult fight. It’s a very violent fight, and it will likely take a considerable amount of time at a high cost.” A week later an American official told CNN that the offensive was “not meeting expectations on any front”. President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged progress had been “slower than desired”, noting that: “Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not. What’s at stake is people’s lives.” His military chief, General Valery Zaluzhny said something similar: “It’s not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every metre is given by blood.”

Despite patient explanations that there was no fixed timetable, never an expectation that the offensive would be short and sharp, and how military history is full of examples of successful offensives that still took weeks and months, there was disappointment. The sense that all was not well was soon picked up by commentators, often of a “realist” persuasion, who have long argued that Ukraine cannot win this war on their preferred terms, and so must accept a negotiated settlement.

Doomed to failure?

The Harvard professor Graham Allison expects few territorial gains. He notes the difficulty both sides face in overcoming resolute defences and in mobilising “the three-to-one advantage offensive forces usually need to force a breakthrough”. As Russia currently occupies 17 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, and noting Ukraine’s current rate of advance, Allison concluded that it would take another 16 years for it all to be recaptured. Texas A&M University’s Christopher Layne, writing with Benjamin Schwarz, went through all the standard explanations about why the war is really the fault of the US, and concluded that negotiations are the answer because Ukraine cannot recapture all of its territory – although they added that Russia is also unlikely to make much more headway.

University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer, who has been prominent in blaming the West for goading Putin into war, went further. Russia will “ultimately win the war”, he asserted, not by conquering all of Ukraine but by annexing a “large swathe of Ukrainian territory, while turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state”. It will be able to achieve this “ugly victory” because even if the Ukrainians do manage to break through well-prepared defensive lines, Russia has sufficient troops to stabilise the front and continue with attritional battles. “The Ukrainians are at a disadvantage in these encounters because the Russians have a significant firepower advantage.” Mearsheimer even dismissed claims that Russia has suffered more casualties than Ukraine simply because “Russia has much more artillery than Ukraine” – thus, Ukraine must have lost more men. It is much easier to opine on such matters when you insist that your theories are right and the evidence is wrong.

The three-to-one advantage referred to by Allison goes back to 19th-century German thinking about the necessary conditions for successful breakthrough battles between mass armies. In 1989 Mearsheimer actually wrote one of the few scholarly articles on the topic, which confirmed the validity of the rule. One of the cases he looked at was the battle for Ukraine during the early stages of the German invasion of the Soviet Union when nine Wehrmacht German divisions, about 155,000 men, faced two weak Soviet divisions, about 24,000 men. The Germans enjoyed superiority in airpower and in tanks (about 330 on the German side and very few on the Soviet). Unsurprisingly the Germans had little trouble breaking through.

There is however no fixed rule here. Obviously, it is preferable to have an overwhelming superiority in numbers when mounting an assault. But that does not mean that an attacking army must always be at least three times the size of a defending one. Numerous factors can make a difference: the morale and training of the troops; the amount and quality of equipment; and the judgement of commanders. It is advisable to secure superiority in the location where an attack is being mounted, but that can be achieved even when the overall balance of forces is unfavourable. A great clash of armies in a Napoleonic battle is one thing; the numerous small-scale engagements that mark this war is another.

It is true that concentrating a large force to pack the maximum punch is very difficult in current conditions in eastern Ukraine. Such a force is likely soon to be spotted and subjected to enemy fire. In this respect Mearsheimer is right to say that, at least for now, this is an attritional war. Where he goes wrong is to present this as a simple artillery duel in which the advantage lies with Russia. The issue is whether Ukrainian forces have the strategy and tactics to come out of this attritional phase in a better position than the Russians.

Starve, stretch and strike

The UK’s chief of defence staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, described Ukraine’s approach to the House of Commons Defence Committee as “starve, stretch and strike”. “Starve” refers to the regular attacks on Russian logistics and command structures, and “stretch” to the “multiple axes being probed and feints by Ukraine”. Their aim is to take advantage of the length of the front line, more than 1,000 kilometres. As each attack requires a response, this can lead to the progressive commitment of Russian reserves. “Strike” is what we are still waiting for. That will be when the bulk of the 12 fresh and modernised Ukrainian brigades, two thirds of which are still being held back, can be pushed forward. That is why Radakin and others say that the full counteroffensive has yet to start.

This is therefore a staged approach. As the American think tank Institute for the Study of War puts it, the priority is “to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanised manoeuvres to regain large swathes of territory rapidly”.

The success of Ukraine’s strategy depends on Russia’s strategy. Russian commanders have opted against a passive defence, of waiting for the Ukrainians to find a way through the minefields and then overcoming their extensive fortifications. Instead they have sought to deny Ukrainian forces any gains at all. So when, for example, Ukraine liberates a village, a Russian counter-attack is soon mounted. Even though most of these counter-attacks are not successful, the Russian objective may simply be to keep up pressure on Ukraine so it cannot consolidate any gains. This makes for some fierce clashes, but it also probably suits Ukraine because it means that Russian forces become more vulnerable as they move out from their concealed and protected positions.

Early on in the offensive, Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute explained why Ukraine might want the Russians to commit their reserves forward from their “third defence line” to any sectors facing pressure: “Once these troops are pulled forwards, it will become easier to identify the weak points in the Russian lines, where a breakthrough will not be met by a new screen of repositioned forces.”

This is also why the stretch is so important, as the combination of a long front and uncertainty about where the main Ukrainian effort will be launched, limits the Russian “ability to stack units in depth”.

The Ukrainians have been working for some time on Russia’s logistics, including the railway network on which it depends. Last summer Ukraine made use of the Himars multiple rocket launcher to attack Russian ammunition dumps left carelessly close to the front, and destroyed many. Since then the Russians have kept stores out of range. With the increased tempo of battle, this creates a dilemma for Russian commanders. Either ammunition and other supplies must be ferried to the front over long distances, which takes time and carries its own risks of interdiction, or else they have to be stored closer to the front, where they are vulnerable to direct strikes.

That the latter may be happening could be seen with the spectacular strike on an ammunition dump, containing shells and Grad multiple-launch missile systems, at Makiivka, in occupied Donetsk, on 4 July. While strikes such as these deny Russian forces ammunition, the demands of battle result in the intensive use of artillery pieces so that barrels get worn and shells are expended. In addition artillery locations are revealed so that units are struck before they can hide away. Ukraine currently claims to be knocking out about 30 Russian artillery pieces daily.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, tweeted on 4 July that “the number one task” for Ukrainian forces is “the maximum destruction of manpower, equipment, fuel depots, military vehicles, command posts, artillery and air defence forces of the Russian army. The last days have been particularly fruitful. Now the war of destruction is equal to the war of kilometres. More destroyed means more released. The more effective the former, the more the latter. We are acting calmly, wisely, step by step.”

The more Russian forces commit to these battles the less they have for later. It appears that virtually all the forces of Russia’s eastern military district are locked into the effort to prevent any Ukrainian breakthroughs.

While this is going on, of course, Russia is working to take out Ukrainian systems. Ukraine has its own, well-publicised shortages of ammunition to contend with. The position on artillery shells was eased when South Korea changed its stance and agreed to pass on large quantities of 155-millimetre shells. Japan looks like following its example. Most importantly the US has agreed to supply cluster bombs (DPICM – dual-purpose improved conventional munitions). These can be fired from howitzers or Himars and release large numbers of small bomblets to cover a wide area. They will not only help the Ukrainians stay in the “artillery race” for some months, but also add to their tactical options as they can be used to suppress Russian trenches while mine-clearing is under way. They are controversial because many countries, including the UK, have agreed not to use them or export them. As with mines (and a lot of effort went into their prohibition), whatever their value in battle they risk a tragic legacy. Unexploded munitions will cause harm to civilians for many years after these territories serve as battlefields. But old Soviet versions have already been used by both sides. Russia has used them against civilians in Ukraine, which the latter would obviously not do.

Once again Bakhmut

The toughest fighting has been in the area leading up to the southern defensive line, but there has also been a substantial fight around Bakhmut. This was the site of intense fighting earlier in the year, where the Wagner Group led the fight to take the city form Ukraine. By the time it was taken, the latter’s forces were already looking to retake the flanks of the city.

One important consequence of that battle was the falling out between Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian minister of defence, Sergei Shoigu, over the degree of support given to former’s troops – and the conduct of the war more generally. Somewhat bizarrely for a man denounced as a traitor and blamed for bringing the country to the brink of civil war, Prigozhin is apparently moving freely in St Petersburg, sorting out his complex business affairs. The expected relocation of his troops to Belarus has yet to take place. It is impossible to say whether his men could become part of the war effort again. Some senior military figures close to Wagner, notably General Sergei Surovikin, responsible for the construction of the southern defensive line, seem to have been sidelined. None of this will be good for relations at the higher levels of Russian command.

The intensity of the earlier fighting and the role of Wagner has left Bakhmut endowed with a political importance that exceeds its military value. Strategically it is the south that offers Ukrainian forces a route to the sea and to split Moscow’s armies. Yet it was important to Russia’s core objective: the full occupation of the Donbas region. So if it is lost, after all that effort, and with regular forces having taken over the city from Wagner, this would be embarrassing for Putin. Nor are Russian defences as well developed here as in the south. Ukrainian soldiers have been moving up the areas flanking the city, so far more successfully on the south than the north, creating the possibility of a later envelopment (Ukrainian officials claim Russian forces are trapped in the city) and leading the Russians to send support to the area. The village of Klishchiivka south-west of Bakhmut, is being heavily fought over. If Ukraine can take and hold the high ground overlooking the city, the position of the occupiers would become increasingly uncomfortable.

Russian sustainability?

The whole Wagner episode also challenged the assumption that Putin can ride out any setbacks at the front. Whatever the protestations of loyalty and expressions of optimism coming out of Moscow, the Russian president’s position appears less secure than before. The rationale for the war and the way that it has been fought was challenged by Prigozhin. In addition, if the aim is to blunt the Ukrainian offensive until it runs out of steam, encouraging Kyiv’s Western supporters to look for a way out, then the Russian strategy is curious. It is not fighting as if conserving its strength for the long haul. Instead, it is throwing as much as possible into current battles. Mykola Volokhov, commander of the Ukrainian Terra intelligence unit, has noted that while most clashes have been infantry engagements, tanks are now being used more. He considered this a “good sign for us, as it indicates they cannot cope and need to pull out their reserves”.

In the same testimony to parliament quoted earlier this month, the UK’s Admiral Radakin reported that the Russian army has lost half of its combat effectiveness in Ukraine, including as many as 2,000 tanks. He added that Russia’s defence industry is unable to produce more than 200 tanks a year. Although such counts are an inexact science, Ukraine may now have more tanks than Russia in the fight. Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy has noted that Ukraine has received 471 tanks since the start of the war. A further 286 are still to arrive. Meanwhile Putin’s generals are moving units from other parts of Russia, demonstrating that Ukraine has become the Kremlin’s overriding priority even though this leaves it less able to cope with emergencies elsewhere. While one can never be wholly sure about the representativeness of items posted on social media, there are certainly plenty involving mobilised Russian troops grumbling about how little support they have been given and the casualties in their units.

This is a critical stage of the war and a lot depends on what happens over the coming weeks. So far Ukrainian advances have been modest – a little over 160 square kilometres. Some units are now close to Russia’s main defence line, though most are not. We can note evidence of poor coordination between Russian units and how they often, but not always, lose out in small-scale engagements, but also that Russian defences have not yet buckled. This remains a tough and costly fight for Ukraine. During this attritional phase we can see the potential for progress but it has yet to be realised. Only when and if the strike phase is reached will we be able to measure Ukrainian progress on the map.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, July 14, 2023 9:15 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


one way to tell how the war is going is to look at the results of the NATO meeting in vilnius. If NATO thought they could tough out the war long-term, or if there was a reasonable chance of success in the near future, they would have committed a lot more to ukraine.

instead, as far as i can tell, NATO blinked. instead of actual security guarantees what they isssued was;
as much as it takes whatever we have leftover for as long as it takes as long as it lasts.

there are, apparently, realists in NATO who don't want to engage directly with russia.

there is also, according to a very long-winded video by mercouris, a split between the DNC and the biden* administration. according to [some anonymous sources] the DNC wants a major reshuffle in the biden* foreign policy cadre currently driving the bus, with nuland and blinken (and maybe sullivan) out and realists like wendy sherman and burns given more say. once that's done, they hope to negotiate with russia before elections next year

IMHO the sticky wicket is biden* himself. he's apparently got a terrible temper, and his mental capacity is diminished, so what we might have is a dangerously irascible dodderer whose finger is on the button. he might flare up and decide to fight russia directly with the idea of dragging the rest of NATO into the fray.

***

Meanwhile, Russia will probably break the grain deal, since the west has implemented none of its provisions regarding Russia. (Just like the Minsk Agreement.) Russia bombed not only Snake Island, which is in the conflict- free grain corridor but also Odessa munitions.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM



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Saturday, July 15, 2023 6:36 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

there are, apparently, realists in NATO who don't want to engage directly with russia.

Which NATO countries sent their troops to Ukraine? The answer is NONE. The question was too specific. Maybe there are some other countries not in NATO that sent troops? There is! Belarus and . . . Russia. Every country is a realist, except for Belarus and Russia. Both countries are run poorly because both have rulers for life. Competency decreases the longer a ruler serves. See all of North Korea's Kim family history for examples. Maybe North Korea will be sending troops to Ukraine since Russia established Korea?

Countries Sending Troops to Ukraine 2023
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-sending-t
roops-to-ukraine


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, July 15, 2023 6:40 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


(Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Kremlin advanced efforts likely aimed at keeping high ranking officers in their positions without needing to obtain special exemptions for retirement age limits. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on July 14 increasing the age limitations for all reservists by five years: personnel with “first class” ranks from 35 to 40 years, “second class” ranks from 40 to 45 years, “third class” ranks from 50 to 55 years, junior officers from 55 to 60 years, and senior officers from 60 to 65 years.[64] The decree stipulates that the age limitations for each category will increase by one year annually from January 2024 to January 2028. The Russian federal government recently adopted a law similarly extending the retirement ages for senior military officers, as ISW has previously reported.[65]

Putin signed a decree authorizing death and injury payments to Russian fortification builders in Ukraine and their families.[66] The decree stipulates that the payments – five million rubles ($55,401) for death and three million rubles ($33,240) for injury – will come from the Russian federal budget and are retroactive for all deaths and injuries since the start of the full-scale invasion in Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-14-2023


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, July 15, 2023 6:49 AM

THG


Putin knows it's over with this one.

T


Strategic Win for NATO: Sweden Joins the Ranks || Peter Zeihan





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Saturday, July 15, 2023 7:47 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


A new version of the Gulag system is being reconstructed, especially for Ukrainians. Journalists, war-crimes investigators, and specialized groups such as the Reckoning Project have already documented arrests, murders, prisons, and torture chambers in Ukrainian territories under Russian occupation. Slowly, it is becoming clear that these are not just ad-hoc responses to Ukrainian resistance. They are part of a long-term plan: the construction of a sprawling system of camps and punishment colonies — a new Gulag. The Associated Press reported yesterday that it has evidence of at least 40 prison camps in Russia and Belarus, as well as 63 formal and informal prisons in occupied Ukraine, containing perhaps 10,000 Ukrainians.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-prisons-civilians-torture-de
tainees-88b4abf2efbf383272eed9378be13c72
A few are prisoners of war: Gulagu.net, a Russian prison-monitoring group, has evidence of Ukrainian soldiers in Russian prisons who arrive without proper papers or POW status. But most of the Ukrainian prisoners are civilians who have been arrested or abducted in occupied territory.

As in the Gulag during its heyday, slave labor is one purpose of these camps. Some Ukrainians in captivity are being forced to dig trenches and build fortifications for Russian soldiers, and to dig mass graves. The Gulag was also designed to instill terror in the broader population, and the new camp system works that way too. Civilians are imprisoned and tortured for minor offenses—AP cites, as one example, the tying of a ribbon with Ukrainian colors to a bicycle—or sometimes for no reason at all. The Reckoning Project has collected many examples of Russian soldiers becoming paranoid and interrogating ordinary people, many of them volunteers for civic organizations, about their connections to the Ukrainian security services, the CIA, or even George Soros’s Open Society Foundation. The AP describes one civilian captive from Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region who was pulled from her cell, driven around town, and told to identify people with pro-Ukrainian sympathies. In 1937–38, during the era of the Great Purges, Soviet secret police were equally paranoid and equally terrified, not only of ordinary people but also of one another. Recent infighting suggests that Russian military forces may reach that stage in occupied Ukraine too.

Like the Soviet Gulag, the new Russian camp network is not temporary, and unless the Ukrainians can take back their territory, it will expand. AP has obtained a Russian document, dated this past January, that describes plans to build 25 new prison colonies and six detention centers in occupied Ukrainian territory by 2026. Like the Soviet Gulag, this system is chaotic and lawless. People have been condemned without trial. Their documents have been lost. Sometimes they are kept for no reason, or released for no reason. Their relatives receive no information about them and cannot find or contact them. Eventually, they may also be forced to the front lines. That is certainly the fate of Russian prisoners in Russia, many of whom are now told to sign mobilization papers, and beaten and tortured if they refuse. As in the old days, it seems as if Russian prison directors have been given quotas, numbers of prisoners they need to supply in order to fulfill some central plan.

The historical echoes can’t be an accident. The KGB once taught new recruits to study the institution’s history, and the Russian security services clearly do the same: They are carrying out repressive policies that “worked” in the Soviet days, that kept people like Bohdan Klymchak and his brother behind bars. But that history also explains Ukraine’s response. Anyone who wonders why the Ukrainians keep fighting, why they keep asking for more weapons, why they become frustrated by slow-moving transatlantic diplomacy, why they seem angry or “unreasonable,” should remember this: The Gulag was supposed to belong to the past. Now it belongs to the present. If Ukrainians don’t want it to be part of their future, they will have to physically remove these camps—and the people who run them—from Ukrainian land. Until they have succeeded, no help will ever be enough.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/russia-gulag-ukraine
/674705
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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