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RUSSIA IS WINNING THE BIG WAR TOO BY HELMHOLTZ SMITH

2 December 2022 by HELMHOLTZ SMITH 25 Comments

The Western media treats the war in Ukraine in isolation but the truth is that it is just one battlefield in a world war. Russia knows it – “The US wants to weaken and destroy Russia, and is using Ukraine as a ‘battering ram‘”; America too – “Russia’s invasion tears at the rules-based international order that keeps us all secure” (translation from Newspeak – “threatens our predominance”.) The US-centric system is fighting across the world to maintain its superiority.

And how is that wider war going? For the US and its allies – the self-anointed “International Community” – the answer is not very well. Their assumption that sanctions would collapse the Russian economy and overthrow Putin has backfired – Worst fall in UK living standards, European power prices shatter records, Inflation boosts U.S. household spending. Plenty more headlines like those. Even that citadel of Russophobia The Economist has to admit “As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out“.

Did they think, when they sanctioned the world’s largest energy exporter and two of the principal potash exporters, that fuel and food prices would go down?

Allied unity is shaky. Ankara has effectively blamed the USA for the recent terror attacks and is openly attacking US allies in Syria. Poland’s President admits “I don’t need a war with Russia“. Zelinsky’s insistence that a Russian missile hit Poland when everyone knows it didn’t, is “destroying [our] confidence in them“. Europeans start to understand that Washington played them for fools. How many European manufacturers are moving to the USA? Who blew up Nordstream? A mystery too secret to answer (but it wasn’t Russia). Western economies will not get better, winter is “weaponized”, inflation, unemployment and dissatisfaction will grow.

A year after he invaded the USSR, Hitler invited himself to Marshal Mannerheim’s birthday party. The Finns bugged the railroad car and caught Hitler admitting that German weapons were only fit for “good weather”. We see the same thing in Ukraine – NATO’s weaponry is delicate; previous “wonder weapons” like Javelin are disappointing; air defense doesn’t stop missiles. In fact the only “wonder weapon” with much effect is the HIMARS but its warheads are small and the latest “deliveries” haven’t even been built.

NATO weapons production is also “good weather”. A heavy artillery day in Afghanistan was 300 rounds and for that US production of roughly 80,000 155mm rounds a year was plenty. But Ukraine is reportedly firing 20 times as many per day and Russia seven times that. One of the few prescient pieces published by the establishment press was “The Return of Industrial Warfare” in June. That pointed out what is now apparent to all – NATO does not have the production to keep up with demand. Brian Berletic has been keeping track of the diminishing quantity and quality of weaponry sent from America. This can be best exemplified by the 60 year old HAWK air defence system just sent. 50 year old Gepards. “Upgraded” (20 years ago) T-55 tanks. No more 155mm guns, now 105mm guns. Even the tame media is worried – “Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles“, “U.S. and NATO Scramble to Arm Ukraine and Refill Their Own Arsenals.” There are plans to increase production but that’s years away.

One of Moscow’s aims is to demilitarize Ukraine; never in its wildest dreams could it have foreseen that it would demilitarize NATO too. Boasting “How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion…?” misses the point – guns fire shells, not engraved paper.

And more. The West loves to call itself the “international community” but even the establishment has to admit that most of the world does not agree. Look at the lineup of countries wanting to get into BRICS or the SCO. How enthusiastic will cold unemployed Europeans be when another couple of million Ukrainians arrive expecting to be put up in hotels? There are protests all the time all over Europe – how long can they be ignored? Is Europe really “heading to the Middle Ages“? How many people will die from cold? More and more countries are moving away from the US dollar – what happens when it’s just another national currency like dozens of others? What happens after the last elderly weapon is dug out of the last storage bin and shipped? Where is Plan B?

They were so certain that the Ruble would become rubble that they didn’t bother with Plan B. All there is is more fluff and yelling louder –”Sanctions have weakened Russia and sowed doubts about Putin’s leadership. More pressure is needed to bring an end to the war.”

True, but the pressure is not on Russia. Russia can wait – time is on its side in the big war.

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The Goldilocks War
December 02, 2022

by Dmitry Orlov for the Saker blog

Are you happy with the way the war in the former Ukraine is going? Most people aren’t—for one reason or another. Some people hate the fact that there is a war there at all, while others love it but hate the fact that it hasn’t been won yet, by one side or the other. Bounteous quantities of both of these kinds of haters are found on both sides of the new Iron Curtain that is hastily being built across Eurasia between the collective West and the collective East. This seems reasonable; after all, hating war is standard procedure for most people (war is hell, don’t you know!) and by extension a small war is better than a big one and a short war is better than a long one. And also such reasoning is banal, trite, platitudinous, vapid, predictable, unimaginative and… bromidic (according to the English Thesaurus).

Seldom is to be found a war-watcher who is happy with the progress and the duration of the war. Luckily, Russian state television shows a very significant one these almost daily. It is Russia’s president, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Having paid attention to him for over twenty years now, I can confidently state that never has he been so imbued with calm, self-assured serenity leavened with droll humor. This is not the demeanor of someone who feels at any risk of losing a war. The brass at the Ministry of Defense appear dour and glum on camera—a demeanor befitting men who send other men to fight and possibly to be wounded or to die; but off-camera they flash each other quick Mona Lisa smiles. (Russian men don’t give stupid American-style fish-eyed toothy grins, rarely show their teeth when smiling, and never in the presence of wolves or bears).

Given that Putin’s approval rating stands firm at around 80% (a number beyond reach of any Western politician), it is reasonable to assume that he is just the visible tip of a gigantic, 100-million-strong iceberg of Russians who calmly await the successful conclusion of the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (so please don’t even call it a war). These 100 million Russians are seldom heard from, and when they do make noise, it is to protest against bureaucratic dawdling and foot-dragging or to raise private funds with which to remedy a shortage of some specialty equipment requested by the troops: night vision goggles, quadrocopters, optical sights, and all sorts of fancy tactical gear.

A great deal more noise is being made by the one or two percent whose entire business plan has been wrecked by the sudden appearance of the New Iron Curtain. The silliest of these thought that fleeing west, or south (to Turkey, Kazakhstan or Georgia) would somehow magically fix their problem; it hasn’t, and it won’t. The people we would expect to scream the loudest are the LGBTQ+ activists, who thought that they were going to use Western grant money to build East Sodom and East Gomorrah. They’ve been hobbled and muzzled by new Russian laws that label them as foreign agents and prohibit their sort of propaganda. In fact, the very term LGBTQ+ is now illegal, and so, I suppose, they will have to use PPPPP+ instead (“P” is for “pídor”, which is the generic Russian term for any sort of sexual pervert, degenerate or deviant). But I digress.

It can be observed rather readily that those who are the least happy with the course of the Russian campaign are also the least likely to be Russian. Least happy of all are the good folks at the Center for Informational and Political Operations of the Ukrainian Security Service who are charged with creating and maintaining the Phantom of Ukrainian Victory. These are followed by people in and around Washington, who are quite infuriated by Russian dawdling and foot-dragging. They have also been hard-pressed to show that the Ukrainians are winning while the Russians are losing; to this end, they have portrayed every Russian tactical repositioning or tactical withdrawal as a huge, humiliating defeat personally for Putin and every relentless, suicidal Ukrainian attack on Russian positions as a great heroic victory. But this PR tactic has lost effectiveness over time and now the Ukraine has become a toxic topic in the US that most American politicians would prefer to forget about, or at least keep out of the news.

To be fair, the Russian tactical cat-and-mouse games in this conflict has been nothing short of infuriating. The Russians spent some time rolling around Kiev to draw Ukrainian troops away from the Donbass and prevent a Ukrainian attack on it; once that was done, they withdrew. Great Ukrainian victory! They also spent some time tooling around the Black Sea coastline near Odessa, threatening a sea invasion, to draw off Ukrainian forces in that direction, but never invaded. Another Ukrainian victory! The Russians occupied a large chunk of Kharkov region that the Ukrainians left largely undefended, then, when the Ukrainians finally paid attention to it, partially withdrew behind a river to conserve resources. Yet another Ukrainian victory! The Russians occupied/liberated the regional capital of Kherson, evacuated all the people who wanted to be evacuated, then withdrew to a defensible position behind a river. Victory again! With all these Ukrainian victories, it is truly a wonder that the Russians have managed to gain around 100km2 of the former Ukraine’s most valuable real estate, over 6 million in population, secured a land route to Crimea and opened up a vital canal that supplies irrigation water to it and which the Ukrainians had blocked some years ago. That doesn’t seem like a defeat at all; that looks like an excellent result from a single, limited summer campaign.

Russia has achieved several of its strategic objectives already; the rest can wait. How long should they wait? To answer this question, we need to look outside the limited scope of Russia’s special operation in the Ukraine. Russia has bigger fish to fry, and frying fish takes time because eating undercooked fish can give you nasty parasites such as tapeworm and liver fluke. And so, I would like to invite you to Mother Russia’s secret kitchen, to see what’s on the cutting board and to estimate how much thermal processing will be required to turn it all into a safe and nutritious meal.

Mixing our food metaphors, allow me to introduce Goldilocks with her three bears and her porridge not too hot and not too cold. What Russia seems to be doing is keeping their special military operation moving along at a steady pace—not too fast and not too slow. Going too fast would not allow enough time to cook the various fish; going too fast would also increase the cost of the campaign in casualties and resources. Going too slow would give the Ukrainians and NATO time to regroup and rearm and prevent the proper thermal processing of the various fish.

In an effort to find the optimal pace for the conflict, Russia initially committed only a tenth of its professional active-duty soldiers, then worked hard to minimize the casualty rate. It opted to start turning off the lights all over the former Ukraine only after the Kiev regime tried to blow up the Kerch Strait bridge that linked Crimea with the Russian mainland. Finally, it called up just 1% of reservists to relieve the pressure from the frontline troops and potentially prepare for the next stage, which is a winter campaign—for which the Russians are famous.

With this background information laid out, we can now enumerate and describe the various ancillary objectives which Russia plans to achieve over the course of this Goldilocks War. The first and perhaps most important set of problems that Russia has to solve in the course of the Goldilocks War is internal. The goal is to rearrange Russian society, economy and financial system so as to prepare it for a de-Westernized future. Since the collapse of the USSR, various Western agents, such as the National Endowment for Democracy, the US State Department, various Soros-owned foundations and a wide assortment of Western grants and exchange programs have made serious inroads into Russia. The overall goal was to weaken and eventually dismember and destroy Russia, turning it into a compliant servant of Western governments and transnational corporations that would supply them with cheap labor and raw materials. To help this process along, these Western organizations did whatever they could to drive the Russian people toward eventual biological extinction and replace them with a more docile and less adventurous race.

Starting well over 30 years ago, Western NGOs set to corrupting the minds of Russia’s young. No effort was spared to denigrate the value of Russian culture, to falsify Russian history and to replace them both with Western pop culture and propaganda narratives. These initiatives achieved limited success, and the USSR, and Soviet-era culture, has remained ever-popular even among those who were too young to have experienced life in the USSR firsthand. Where the damage has been most severe is in education. Excellent Soviet-era textbooks that taught students how to think independently were destroyed and replaced with imports. These were at best useful for training experts in narrowly defined fields who can follow previously defined procedures and recipes but can’t explain how these procedures and recipes were arrived at or to create new ones. Russian teachers, who saw their job not just in educating but in bringing up their students to be good Russians who love and cherish their country, were replaced by Western-trained educationalists who saw their mission as providing a competitive, market-based service in bringing up qualified, competent… consumers! Who are these people? Well, luckily, the Internet remembers everything, and there are plenty of other jobs for these people such as shoveling snow and stoking furnaces. But identifying and replacing them takes time, as does finding, updating and reproducing the older, excellent textbooks.

But what of the young people left behind by this wave of destruction? Luckily, not all is lost. The special military operation is providing them with some very valuable lessons that their ignorant educationalists left out: that Russia—a unique, miraculous agglomeration of many different nations, languages and religions—has been preserved and expanded over the centuries through the efforts of heroes whose names are not just remembered but venerated. What’s more, some of them are alive today, fighting and working in the Donbass. It is one thing to visit museums, read old books and hear stories about the great deeds of one’s grandfathers and great-grandfathers during the Great Patriotic War; it is quite another to watch history unfold through the eyes of your own father or brother. Give it another year or two, and Russia’s young people will learn to look with disdain on the products of Russia’s Western-oriented culture-mongers. Their elders do already: opinion polls show that a large majority of Russians see Western cultural influence as a negative.

And what of these Russian [western oriented] culture-mongers who have been worshiping all things Western for as long as they can remember? Here, a most curious thing happened. When the special military operation was first announced, they spoke out against it and in favor of the Ukrainian Nazis—a stupid thing to do, but they thought it good and proper to keep their political opinions harmonized with those of their Western patrons and idols so as to stay in their good graces. Some of them protested against the war (ignoring the fact that it had been going on for eight long years already). And then quite a few of them fled the country in unseemly haste.

Keep in mind that these are neither brain surgeons nor rocket scientists: these are people who prance around on stage while making noises with their hands and mouths; or they are people who sit there while makeup artists do things to their faces and hair, then endlessly repeat lines written for them by someone else. These are not people who have the capacity to analyze a tricky political situation and make the right choice. In an earlier, saner age their opinions would be steadfastly ignored, but such is the effect of the Internet, social media and all the rest, that any hysterical nincompoop can shoot a little video and millions of people, having nothing better to do with their time, will watch it on their phones and make comments.

The fact that these people are voluntarily cleansing the Russian media space of their presence is a positive development, but it takes time. If the special military operation were to end tomorrow, there is no doubt that they would attempt to come back and pretend that none of this ever happened. And then Russian popular culture would remain a Western-styled cesspool full of vacuous personae who seek to glorify every single deadly sin for the sake of personal notoriety and gain. Russia has plenty of talented people eager to take their place—if only they would keep out long enough for everyone to forget about them!

Particularly damaging to Russia’s future has been the emergence and preeminence of pro-Western economic and financial elites. Ever since the haphazard and in many cases criminal privatization of state resources in the 1990s, there was brought up an entire cohort of powerful economic agents who does not have Russia’s interests in mind. Instead, these are purely selfish economic actors who until quite recently thought that their ill-gotten gains would allow them to enter into posh Western society. These people usually have more than one passport, they try to keep their families in some wealthy enclave outside of Russia, they send their children to schools and universities in the West, and their only use for Russia is as a territory they can exploit in creating their wealth extraction schemes.

When in response to the start of Russia’s special military operation the West mounted a speculative attack on the ruble, forcing Russia’s central bank to impose strict currency controls, these members of the Russian elite were forced to start thinking about making a momentous choice. They could stay in Russia, but then they would have to cut their ties to the West; or they could move to the West and live off their savings, but then they would be cut off from the source of their wealth. Their choice was made easier by Western governments which worked hard to confiscate the property of rich Russian nationals, freeze their bank accounts and subject them to various other indignities and inconveniences.

Still, it’s a hard choice for them to make—realizing that, in spite of their sometimes fabulous wealth, for the collective West they are just some Russians that can be robbed. Many of them are mentally unprepared to throw in their lot with their own people, whom they have been taught to despise and to exploit for personal gain. A quick victory in Russia’s special military operation would allow them to think that their troubles were temporary in nature. Given enough time some of them will run away for good while others will decide to stay and work for the common good in Russia.

Next in line are various members of the Russian government who, having been schooled in Western economics, are incapable of understanding the economic transformation that is occurring in Russia, never mind helping it along. Most of what passes for economic thought in the West is just an elaborate smokescreen over this fundamental dictum: “The rich must be allowed to get richer, the poor must be kept poor and the government shouldn’t try to help them (much).” This worked while the West had colonies to exploit, be it through good old-fashioned imperial conquest, plunder and rapine, or through financial neocolonialism of Perkins’s “economic hit men,” or, as has recently been grudgingly admitted by several top EU officials, by taking advantage of cheap Russian energy.

That doesn’t work any more—not in the West, not in Russia or any place else, and mindsets have to adjust. There is a great deal of inertia in appointments to government positions, where there are many vested interests vying for power and influence. It takes time for such basic ideas to percolate through the system as the fact that the US Federal Reserve no longer has a planet-wide monopoly on printing money. Therefore, it is no longer necessary for Russia’s central bank to have dollars in reserve to cover their ruble emissions to defend it against speculative attack since it is no longer necessary for Russia’s central bank to allow foreign currency speculators to run rampant and stage speculative attacks.

But some results have already been achieved, and they are nothing short of spectacular: over the past few months, just a few well-chosen departures from Western economic orthodoxy have made the ruble the world’s strongest currency, have allowed Russia to earn more export revenue by exporting less oil, gas and coal, and have allowed it to drive inflation down to almost zero. Since the start of the special military operation, Russia has been able to reduce its national debt by a large amount and increase government revenues. A swift end to Russia’s special military operation may spell the end of such miracles and a most unwelcome return to the untenable status quo ante.

Beyond the intangible world of finance, equally significant changes have been occurring throughout the physical Russian economy. Previously, many economic sectors, including car sales, construction and home improvement, software development and many others, were foreign-owned and the profits from these activities left the country. And then a decision was made to block the expatriation of dividends. In response, foreign companies sold off their Russian assets, taking a huge loss and depriving themselves of access to the Russian market. The change has been quite stunning. For example, at the beginning of 2022, Western car companies owned a large share of the Russian auto market. Many of the cars that were sold had been assembled within Russia at foreign-owned plants and the profits from these sales were expatriated. Now, less than a year later, European and American automakers are pretty much gone from Russia, replaced by a swiftly reborn domestic auto industry. Chinese automakers have immediately grabbed a large market share for themselves, while South Korea continued to trade with Russia and has held on to its market share.

Equally stunning have been changes in the aircraft industry. Previously, Russian airlines were flying Airbuses and Boeings, most of them leased. After the start of the special operation Western politicians demanded that these leases be rescinded and the aircraft returned to their owners, neglecting to take into account the fact that this would be ruinous financially (glutting the market for used aircraft for years to come and destroying demand for new aircraft) and, furthermore, physically impossible, given that there was no way to effect the transfer of the aircraft. In response, the Russian airlines nationalized the aircraft registry, stopped flying to hostile destinations where their aircraft might be arrested, and started making lease payments in rubles to special accounts at the Russian central bank.

Then came the news that Aeroflot is panning to buy over 300 new passenger jets, all Russian ??-21s, SSJ-100s and Tu-214s, all before 2030, with the first deliveries slated for 2023. There has been a scramble to replace almost all Western-sourced components, such as composites for the carbon fiber wing of the MC-21 and jet engines, avionics and much else for all of the above. Over this period many of the previously leased Boeings and Airbuses will be phased out, but these companies’ market share in the largest country on Earth will be gone forever. Damage to Western aircraft manufacturers will be matched by the damage to Western airlines. At the outset of hostilities, the collective West closed its airspace to Russia, and Russia reciprocated. The problem is that Europe is small and easy to fly around while Russia is huge and flying around it takes a whole day. European airlines suddenly found that the? can’t compete on routes to Japan, China or Korea.

Following the closing of the airspace came other sanctions, from both the European Union and from the United States, all of them illegal, since the UN Security Council is the only body empowered to impose sanctions. Right now the European Union is working on the ninth packet of sanctions, all of which have been dubbed “sanctions from hell”. Speaking of hell, Dante Alighieri’s “Inferno” there are nine circles of hell, so perhaps the sanctions juggernaut is about to run its course.

These sanctions were supposed to have swiftly destroyed the Russian economy and have caused so much social upheaval and suffering that the people would gather on Red Square and overthrow the dread dictator Putin (or so thought Western foreign policy experts). Clearly, nothing of the sort has happened and Putin’s approval rating is as high as ever. On the other hand, the good people of the European Union are indeed starting to suffer. They can no longer afford to heat their homes or to take regular hot showers, food has become outrageously expensive for them, and so much else is going wrong that huge crowds of protestors have been gathering all across Europe and demanding, among other things, an end to anti-Russian sanctions, normalization of relations with Russia and a return to business as usual. Their demands are unlikely to be met, since this would mean a major loss of face for the European leaders.

But there is a more important reason why the sanctions will stay: a return to business as usual would mean that Russia would once again provide energy and raw materials to Europe cheaply while allowing European companies to profit from the labor of Russians. This is quite unappealing and is therefore unlikely to happen. Russia is using the sanctions as an opportunity to rebuild its domestic industry and reorient its trade away from hostile nations and toward friendly nations that are fair and sympathetic in their dealings with Russia. It is also working hard to phase out the use of currencies that Dmitry Medvedev called “toxic”; namely, the US dollar and the euro.

Add to this list a wonderful new Russian innovation called “parallel import.” If some company, in complying with anti-Russian sanctions, refuses to sell its products to Russia or to service or upgrade its products in Russia, then Russia will buy these products and upgrades from a third or fourth or fifth party without permission from the US, the EU or the manufacturer. If a certain brand-name product becomes unavailable, the Russians simply rename the brand and make the same product themselves, or have the Chinese or another trade partner do it for them. And if the West refuses to license its intellectual property to Russia, then that intellectual property becomes free in Russia.

This works particularly well with software: free copies of brand-name software are just as good as the paid-for copies, and if tech support, training or other associated services become unavailable from the West, the Russians simply organize their own. Intellectual property of various sorts makes up a large portion Western notional wealth, and Western sanctions are having the effect of letting Russia make use of it free of charge. Thanks to modern digital technology, it works rather well with hardware too. Instead of painstakingly reverse-engineering products, now the same effect can be achieved by buying the 3D models on a thumb drive and 3D-printing them or automatically generating the mill and drill paths to create them on an NC mill. Putin likes to use the expression “tsap-tsarap” to describe this process. It is hard to translate directly but pertains to the act of a cat snatching its prey with its claws. The short of it is, what Russia previously had to pay for is now, thanks to sanctions, free to it.

Since the Goldilocks War is, after all, a sort of war, we need to briefly discuss its military aspects. Here, too, a steady-as-she-goes approach seems to be the most copacetic. The stated goal is to demilitarize and denazify the former Ukraine, and to some extent this has already been achieved: most of the armor and artillery that the Ukraine had inherited from the USSR has already been destroyed; most of the diehard Nazi battalions are either dead or a shadow of their former selves. Gone too are most of the volunteers that once fought on the Ukrainian side. After over 100000 Ukrainian soldiers “have been killed” since February 2022 (as forthrightly stated, then sheepishly denied, by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen), and after perhaps as many as half a million casualties, scores of service-age men bribing their way out of the country and several rounds of the draft, it is slim pickings. With well over a hundred Ukrainian casualties a day the pickings are bound to get even slimmer over time. Foreign mercenaries have been used to fill the gap—Anglos, Poles, Romanians—but there is a major problem with them: as Julius Caesar pointed out, lots of people are willing to kill for money but nobody wants to die for money—except an idiot, I would add. And on NATO’s Russian front an idiot and his life are soon parted. Up-to-date information on Russian casualties is a state secret and the only number divulged by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in late September 2022 was 5937 killed since the start of the campaign. Casualty rates are said to have been significantly lower since then.

At present, there is still no shortage of idiots on the Ukrainian side—yet—and neither is there a shortage of donated Western weaponry. First came used Soviet-era tanks and other weapons systems donated from all over Eastern Europe; then came actual Western weapons systems. And now throughout NATO one hears plaintive cries that they have nothing left that they can give to the Ukrainians: the cupboard is empty. Nor can they manufacture more weapons in a hurry. To start churning out weapons at the same rate as Russia is doing, these NATO members would first need to reindustrialize, and there are neither the human resources, nor the money to do so. And so the Russian army grinds away, demilitarizing the Ukraine, and the rest of NATO with it. In the process, it is perfecting the art of fighting a land war against NATO—not that a single NATO country would even entertain such an idea.

Perhaps this is mission creep, or perhaps this has been the plan all along, but what Russia is doing at this point is destroying NATO. You may recall that a year ago Russia demanded that the US honor certain security guarantees it made as a condition for allowing the peaceful reunification of Germany; namely, that NATO would not expand eastward. “Not an inch to the east” was how the official record of the meeting reads. Gorbachev and Shevardnadze failed to get this deal on paper and signed, but a verbal deal is a deal. A year ago Russia’s offer was quite moderate: that NATO withdraw to its pre-1997 borders, when it expanded to Eastern Europe.

But, as usually happens when negotiating with the Russians, their initial offer is usually the best. For all we know, based on how things are going in the Ukraine, Russia’s best and final offer may require NATO to disband altogether. After all, the Warsaw Pact disbanded 31 years ago but NATO is still around and bigger than ever; what for? To fight Russia? Well, then, what are they waiting for? Come and get it! This may not even take the form of a negotiation. For example, Russia could say, take a quick whack at Latvia (it richly deserves a whack or two for abusing its large native Russian population Nazi-style) and then stand back and say, “Come on, NATO, come and die heroically on our doorstep for poor little Latvia!” At this, NATO officials will stand united but very quiet, thoughtfully examining their own and each others’ shoes. Once it becomes clear that there will be no offers to launch World War III to avenge Latvia, NATO will quietly dry up and blow away.

Finally, we come to what is perhaps the least important reason for the Goldilocks War: the former Ukraine itself. In view of Russia’s other strategic goals, it seems more of the nature of a sacrificial piece in a chess gambit. Given what Russia has already achieved over the past nine months—four new Russian regions, six million new Russian citizens, a land bridge to Crimea, irrigation water supply to Crimea—there isn’t much left for Russia to achieve militarily before its military campaign reaches the stage of diminishing returns. The addition of Nikolaev and Odessa regions and full control of the Black Sea coastline would, of course, be most valuable; control of Kharkov and Kiev somewhat less so. Control of the entire Dniepr hydroelectric cascade is a definite nice-to-have. As for the rest, it could be left to languish for ages as a deindustrialized, depopulated wasteland, labeled “Mostly harmless.”

Let me divulge a personal detail or two. Two of my grandparents were from Zhitomir, my father was born in Kiev, my first romantic interest was a girl from Odessa, and over the years I’ve had as many friends from Odessa, Kharkov, Lvov, Kiev, Donetsk, Vinnitsa and elsewhere as anywhere else in Russia. Russia? You read that right: there is no way to convince me that so-called “Ukrainian territory” somehow isn’t Russia or that the people who live there somehow aren’t Russian—regardless of what some of them have been recently brainwashed to think. What’s more, none of these people I have known over the years ever thought of themselves as the least bit Ukrainian and they would probably view the very idea of a Ukrainian nationalist identity as symptomatic of a mental condition. The label “Ukrainian” was to them some Bolshevik nonse; since then, Ukrainianness has been turned into a Western method for exploiting minor ethnic variations in order to make one group of Russians fight another group of Russians.

In case you are doubtful, let’s apply the good old duck test: Do the people there walk, quack and look like Russians? All of that territory, with one minor exception in the far west, was part of Russia for anywhere between ten and three centuries; most of the people there, and virtually the entire urban population, speaks Russian as their native language; their religion is predominantly Russian Orthodox; they are genetically indistinguishable from the rest of the Russian population. So, what happened to them?

Unfortunately, a small piece of this Russian land spent three centuries in captivity to the Austro-Hungarian Empire or as part of Greater Poland, and this poisoned their minds with foreign ideas such as Catholicism and ethnic nationalism. Unlike Russia, which is a multinational, multi-ethnic, religiously diverse monolith, the West is a mosaic of ethnic nationalisms, and where there are nationalists there may be Nazis, ethnic cleansing and genocide.

As one drop of poison infects the whole tun of wine, these Western Ukrainians, with lots of help and funds from the German Nazis, then the Americans and the Canadians, managed to infect a large part of the formerly Ukrainian territory with a fake nationalism based on a forged history and a haphazardly concocted culture. Official bans on the teaching and, eventually, the use of Russian have brought up a generation of young people who are essentially illiterate in their native Russian. They are taught in Ukrainian, but Ukrainian literacy is close to an oxymoron, since nothing of any great consequence has ever been written or published in that language and the vast majority of Ukrainian literary works are, you guessed it, in Russian.

The Russian special military operation that’s been ongoing since February 2022 has polarized the entire population. Those who had decided to be with Russia back in 2014 were, obviously, overjoyed to finally get some help from Russia. The now Russian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson gladly voted to join Russia. But as far as the rest of the former Ukrainian territory, the polarization is mostly in the opposite direction. Those who wanted to be with Russia mostly voted with their feet and are now living somewhere in Russia.

This is something that time alone can fix. Eventually the population of the former Ukraine will be forced to make a choice: they can be Russian, or they can be refugees somewhere in Europe, or they can die fighting Russians at the front. Note that even Donetsk and Lugansk didn’t make this choice right away, the way Crimea did. At that time, only some 70% of their population was in favor of leaving the Ukraine and rejoining Russia. It took eight years of relentless Ukrainian bombing to convince them to make this choice.

Over these intervening years, the diehard “Ukrainians” filtered out, leaving behind a population that was close to 100% pro-Russian. It was only then that the Kremlin granted them official recognition, sent in troops to defend them from imminent invasion and, soon after, accepted them into the Russian Federation. And now the same sort of sorting operation has to take place throughout the rest of the former Ukraine. How long will it take? Only time will tell, but it is already clear that, as far as Russia is concerned, there is no compelling reason to rush.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Because fuck Ukraine. That's why.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Because fuck Ukraine. That's why.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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You remind me over and over that you think like a criminal. Your endless sympathy for Trump, the psychopath, is a reminder. Even your sympathizing with Arthur Fleck, from the Joker movie, tells me clearly what you are, 6ix.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Repost of thread to HAKEN created on June 17, 2022 and updated on June 22nd, 2022.

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65116

-----------

NOTICE TO HAKEN: Second's Death Threats, Assassination Attempt Fantasies, Violent Posts, and other toxic behavior

The remaining members of Fireflyfans.net should not be subjected to Second's behavior, his calls for violence, his racism and his wishing death on others he doesn't agree with.

I'm asking Haken now to finally remove Second from these boards. Ever since his other handle Reaverfan was banned from Fireflyfans.net, his Second handle has devolved into little more than a violence fantasy factory.


NOTES:


July 30, 2019: Death threat against President Trump

https://archive.ph/i73bY

October 31st, 2020: Death threat against Amy Coney Barrett

https://archive.ph/6nwD9

October 31st, 2020: Second death threat that day against Amy Coney Barrett

https://archive.ph/6nwD9

September 2nd, 2021: Death threat against the Supreme Court Justices

https://archive.ph/IJw76

April 28th, 2022: Death threat against President Trump

https://archive.ph/NFbSt

March 30th, 2022: Death threat against President Trump

https://archive.ph/L0Zeq

March 30th, 2022: Second death threat that day against President Trump

https://archive.ph/nVqVC

May 2nd, 2022: Second throws around the N word like he owns it

https://archive.ph/B8ocv

May 25th, 2022: Death threat against the Supreme Court

https://archive.ph/OaT3U

June 4th, 2022: Second wishes death on me (Under his Second handle, not his Reaverfan one)

https://archive.ph/J0RY6

June 5th, 2022: Death threat against President Trump

https://archive.ph/rIr6u

June 22nd, 2022: Second threatens to burn my house down in an Italian Mafia style "It would be a shame if your house burned down" kind of way.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220622232014/http://fireflyfans.net/mthr
ead.aspx?bid=18&tid=64666&p=7

July 13, 2022: Death threat against President Trump.

https://archive.ph/rX2bm

July 14th, 2022: Death threat against President Trump

https://archive.ph/pWizO

August 4th, 2022: Death threat against President Trump

https://archive.ph/Yu3m5

August 23rd: Death threat against President Trump.

https://archive.ph/BN2Zi

September 13th, 2022: Death threat against President Trump as well as challenging HAKEN to remove him from the site.

https://archive.ph/uoF1x

Quote:

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Both Putin and Trump will be fine, but they would be even better with two bullets in the back of the head. 6ix, see if you can get me banned for inciting assassination. Call the Secret Service. Call the Russian Embassy. Call Haken. I'm sure you are important enough, with all your connections, to get the law rolling against me. And while you are at it, could you please end all Wars, end all hunger, and end global climate change?

---

I decided at this time not to add the stuff that Kiki has archived on her own through this site, because there are no time stamps here and unless there is a way to find posts and date/time stamps on the administrative side to verify them, they were not archived offsite like the preceding posts were. Though I do know that her archival were things he said in the past, it is too easy to fake somebody else's posts by these means without an outside archival website and I will not enter them here unless asked for them.


At this point I ask Haken either to give a stern talking to at Second about his behavior, or just outright ban him from the site entirely. There is a line, and he has repeatedly crossed it under his Second handle nearly as frequently as he did under his unabashedly toxic Reaverfan handle after he lost it.

_________________________________________________

Archived posts after thread was created:

June 22nd, 2022: Second threatens to burn my house down in an Italian Mafia style "It would be a shame if your house burned down" kind of way.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220622232014/http://fireflyfans.net/mthr
ead.aspx?bid=18&tid=64666&p=7




His death threats / kill yourself posts to other fireflyfans.net members under the Reaverfan handle can all be found here:

1: 1/23/2021: https://archive.vn/Vt9GX
2: 1/23/2021: https://archive.vn/eZZPM
3: 1/23/2021: https://archive.vn/Nmigt
4: 1/24/2021: https://archive.vn/fvxGX
5: 1/25/2021: https://archive.vn/KApRQ
6: 1/28/2021: https://archive.vn/RjISM
7: 1/31/2021: https://archive.vn/glDW5
8: 1/31/2021: https://archive.vn/EkRc2
-: 1/31/2021: https://archive.vn/17onh
9: 1/31/2021: https://archive.vn/mYCA9
10: 1/31/2021: https://archive.vn/UEv1H
11: 1/31/2021: https://archive.vn/EQlAz
12: 2/01/2021: https://archive.vn/ycOxU
13: 2/02/2021: https://archive.vn/40v84
14: 2/02/2021: https://archive.vn/oO5mf
15: 2/02/2021: https://archive.vn/YS1Sx
16: 2/02/2021: https://archive.vn/VANzJ
17: 2/02/2021: https://archive.vn/lNOEH
18: 2/02/2021: https://archive.vn/6DvPi
19: 2/02/2021: https://archive.vn/leLY0
20: 2/11/2021: https://archive.vn/2WY2t
21&22: 2/16/2021: https://archive.vn/iI06G
23: 2/18/2021: https://archive.vn/zJYbX
24: 2/18/2021: https://archive.vn/Tyxo8
25: 2/18/2021: https://archive.vn/VfaAZ
26: 2/18/2021: https://archive.vn/Ol3sv
27: 2/25/2021: https://archive.vn/4dr5D
28: 2/25/2021: https://archive.vn/q90kT
29: 3/1/2021: https://archive.vn/le0na
30: 3/1/2021: https://archive.vn/a5lRu
31: 3/4/2021: https://archive.vn/6Rfp0
32: 3/4/2021: https://archive.vn/JLwhp
33: 3/4/2021: https://archive.vn/NDrfP
34: 3/5/2021: https://archive.vn/rky7w
35: 3/16/2021: https://archive.ph/OTGop
36: 3/16/2021: https://archive.ph/0aWMd
37: 3/16/2021: https://archive.ph/V8OgT
38: 3/25/2021: https://archive.ph/MiIkg
39: 3/25/2021: https://archive.ph/YOEsA
40: 3/26/2021: https://archive.ph/MX6qF
41: 3/26/2021: https://archive.ph/xCFJ3
42: 3/28/2021: https://archive.ph/TziVE
43: 3/30/2021: https://archive.ph/pnI5d
44: 4/2/2021: https://archive.ph/g8kBd
45: 4/2/2021: https://archive.ph/HasNo
46: 4/5/2021: https://archive.ph/jUWde
47: 4/5/2021: https://archive.ph/5I7sp
48: 4/11/2021: https://archive.ph/zDeuv
49: 4/14/2021: https://archive.ph/szDuJ
50: 4/14/2021: https://archive.ph/S5nD3
51: 4/16/2021: https://archive.ph/SV47r
52: 4/17/2021: https://archive.ph/HilSl
53: 4/17/2021: https://archive.ph/xrqq1
54: 4/20/2021: https://archive.ph/1h1cU
55: 4/21/2021: https://archive.ph/OpgFr
56: 4/21/2021: https://archive.ph/D5mS2
57: 4/21/2021: https://archive.ph/vZgVE
58: 4/23/2021: https://archive.ph/hOsoA

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Get fucked, Arthur...

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Get fucked, Arthur...

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6ix, you already proved that you are crazy a long time ago. 6ix, try to make the connection between that and the fact that your house is cold because you can't afford to heat it more.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Because fuck Ukraine. That's why.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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You remind me over and over that you think like a criminal.

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You can't fool anyone, SECOND. We all know you're the evil person around here.

And a liar.





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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

Quote:

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Massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia

The massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia (Polish: rzez wolynska, lit.?'Volhynian slaughter'; Ukrainie Rromanized: Volynska trahediia, lit.?'Volyn tragedy'), were carried out in German-occupied Poland by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, or the UPA, with the support of parts of the local Ukrainian population against the Polish minority in Volhynia, Eastern Galicia, parts of Polesia and Lublin region from 1943 to 1945.[7] The peak of the massacres took place in July and August 1943. Most of the victims were women and children.[8] Many of the Polish victims regardless of age or gender were tortured before being killed; some of the methods included rape, dismemberment or immolation, among others. The UPA's actions resulted in between 50,000 and 100,000 deaths.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That's what I thought, bitch.


Fuck you, and Fuck Ukraine.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That's what I thought, bitch.


Fuck you, and Fuck Ukraine.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Before the February invasion, Russia's potential adversaries assumed Russian forces would utilize their seemingly massive stores of firepower and manpower with "a basic level of competence," in line with what they'd exhibited in smaller-scale military operations around the world in the recent decades.

But there were flaws in that assessment. There was too much focus on the quantity of equipment, rather than the quality of Russian personnel, their leadership, training and motivations.

https://www.newsweek.com/leaked-invasion-plan-reveals-4-assumptions-pu
tin-regime-wrong-1764309

Trumptards number in the tens of millions, but they are low quality individuals, which is why they suffer in the American economy. Same is true of Russians. Because they are low quality, they suffer in the world economy compared to EU citizens. Russian and Trumptard oversized pride doesn't allow them to acknowledge their low quality, which leaves them confused about the cause of their low economic status. In the case of Russians, they blame the "West" and Ukraine, not themselves. Trumptards blame Democrats, RINOS, illegal aliens, Coastal Elites and Ukraine, but, again, not themselves.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

FUN FACT: 90% of welfare recipients in the US are Democratic voters.



Fuck you and fuck Ukraine.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

FUN FACT: 90% of welfare recipients in the US are Democratic voters.



Fuck you and fuck Ukraine.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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I know these self-described "democrats". I realized after hearing a hundred different black "democrats" speak the same ideas that might well come out of the mouth of a Trumptard, that the "democrat" wasn't a real Democrat. They only voted for the Democratic Party because the Republican Party made the "democrat" feel very uncomfortable for being black. These black "democrats" didn't live or act or believe or understand at all like a real Democrat. They would fit perfectly well into the Republican Party if only they were white. I saw the exact same thing happen with White "democrats" in Texas who didn't like President Lyndon Johnson's Great Society or the Voting Rights Act or Medicare or the Vietnam War Protestors. Those White "democrats" denounced the Democratic Party and switched to being Republicans in Texas.

6ix, what I am saying is that the poorer you are, whether black, brown or white, the more likely you are to be strongly attracted to the ideas that Trump sells. Poor blacks are repelled by Trump only because he makes his racial hatred of black obvious to even the most obtuse blacks, exception for jackasses like Kanye West. Have you seen the cartoon series The Boondocks with stories mostly about blacks? Uncle Ruckus is the wacko Kanye West character in The Boondocks. Uncle Ruckus thinks he is a white man with a skin condition the exact opposite of vitiligo.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0373732/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Quote:

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... A victory for the Russians, even one that resembles the apocalypse, is a very real and very jarring possibility. For the Kremlin, securing Bakhmut — one of the few places it is not in retreat — represents the frenzied feat needed to change the narrative of their losing “special military operation.”

To counter the Wagner assault is a group of mostly retired western military professionals known as The Mozart Group. The irony of two composers of beautiful classical music giving namesake to booming, ugly factions of war is not to be missed.

The Mozart Group, a nongovernmental organization founded by former U.S. Marine Special Forces Col. Andy Milburn, sprang to life in the spring with a small but resolute team that travels deep into dangerous territory, to the voids where no other aid organization or government outfit dares venture.

However, even Andy worries that the moving chronology of David defeating Goliath has warped some of the on-ground realities.

“What is less understood [in the media] are some of the more sophisticated aspects of what is happening here. Morale might be the strongest weapon [Ukrainians] have, but it is not enough by itself,” he cautions. “This can lead to complacency, and that is very damaging.”

... I watch helplessly as missiles whirl above and slam into civilian infrastructure. Certainly, Moscow’s targeting of non-combatant dwellings has been well-documented throughout the war. However, what I also observe is that Ukraine’s military often sets up posts directly outside humanitarian headquarters, hospitals and homes. It is for self-protection or because there are no longer conventional sandbagged frontlines and delineations between the armed and the unarmed. Nevertheless, it makes the scenario uncomfortable and makes every inch a pronounced target.

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Quote:

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The commander of the neo-Nazi Svoboda battalion, Petro Kuzik, whose unit is trying to hold Bakhmut, told Western media that the fields and forests around are littered with the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers, and they have to defend themselves in extreme cold and knee-deep in water.

“They [the Russians] sensed a weakness in our defenses because there are units that are less motivated than ours. And yesterday they slightly weakened our defenses in the area immediately around Bakhmut. Some units could not withstand this artillery onslaught and retreated.”

Asked how serious the loss of life is, he said: “They are colossal. We don’t even count the bodies.”

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Quote:

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Originally posted by THG:
The following percentages are recipients of welfare based on race.

• White – 38.8%
• Black – 39.8%
• Hispanic – 15.7%
• Asian – 2.4%
• Other – 3.3%

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:
Can Ukraine Pay for War Without Bankrupting Its Economy?

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

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Originally posted by THG:
The following percentages are recipients of welfare based on race.

• White – 38.8%
• Black – 39.8%
• Hispanic – 15.7%
• Asian – 2.4%
• Other – 3.3%

---

The following percentages are the racial makeup of the country:

• White – 75.1%
• Black – 12.3%
• Hispanic – 12.5%
• Asian – 3.6%
• Other – 5.5%

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-population

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

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Originally posted by second:
Can Ukraine Pay for War Without Bankrupting Its Economy?

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If the answer is no, then get fucked Ukraine.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
*yawn*

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
*yawn*

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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In most parts of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, soldiers and officers do not understand in the name of what, for what, and with what purposes they are fighting. It's a mystery for them what is the condition for victory or just a condition for ending the war. The authorities of the Russian Federation are not able to explain this to them, since setting a clear goal for the SMO [Special Military Operation] means 'limiting room for maneuver' — that is, losing the opportunity to declare the goals of the SMO as achieved at any moment that the Kremlin leaders consider convenient.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ex-russian-operative-who-visited-
the-front-in-ukraine-says-russian-troops-are-in-disarray-due-to-a-crisis-of-strategic-planning/ar-AA152azR

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
In the most one-sided trade in the history of bartering, Biden* just gave Putin one of his Russian arms dealers in trade for a black, lesbian pothead woman who plays a sport that nobody watches and is subsidized by a sport that men play and people actually watch.

Trump would have at least held out for the US Marine who's spent the last 4 years in the Russian gulag as part of the deal.

But I'm sure he was a straight white male and that Putin has fully respected his straight white male privilege status and will continue to do so until America has a real president that will get him back home.


Fuck Joe Biden*.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
In the most one-sided trade in the history of bartering, Biden* just gave Putin one of his Russian arms dealers in trade for a black, lesbian pothead woman who plays a sport that nobody watches and is subsidized by a sport that men play and people actually watch.

Trump would have at least held out for the US Marine who's spent the last 4 years in the Russian gulag as part of the deal.

But I'm sure he was a straight white male and that Putin has fully respected his straight white male privilege status and will continue to do so until America has a real president that will get him back home.


Fuck Joe Biden*.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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The judge who sentenced the Russian thought his sentence was excessive: “He got a hard deal,” said Shira Scheindlin, the retired judge, noting the U.S. sting operatives “put words in his mouth” so he’d say he was aware Americans could die from weapons he sold in order to require a terrorism enhancement that would force a long prison sentence, if not a life term. Scheindlin gave Bout the mandatory minimum 25-year sentence but said she did so only because it was required.

Bout has already served ten years in prison, which is arguably a fair sentence for what he actually did. (Bout has actually been in custody for 14.75 years. It's been 11 years since he was convicted, he was held for 2.5 years in Thailand at the US request before extradition and he was in pre-conviction custody for a year.)

The Russians sincerely believe that the US treated Bout inexcusably and had been demanding his release for a year.

https://jabberwocking.com/was-it-right-to-swap-brittney-griner-innocen
t-basketball-player-for-viktor-bout-guilty-arms-dealer/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Yanno, after a couple of days away from this website, SECOND fades to insignificance. And I realized that the reason why SECOND keeps banging in and on about stuff nobody believes anymore (besides being a troll) is bc he's a pathetic man, empty of any emotional center to his life except this moribund website.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

HEY LOOK EVERYBODY. THE LEGACY MEDIA GOT SECOND TO DEFEND RUSSIA AND A RUSSIAN.



You are too stupid for words.

I'm fuckin' done with you today.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Yanno, after a couple of days away from this website, SECOND fades to insignificance. And I realized that the reason why SECOND keeps banging in and on about stuff nobody believes anymore (besides being a troll) is bc he's a pathetic man, empty of any emotional center to his life except this moribund website.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Yup. That about sums Second up.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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