REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Thursday, September 25, 2025 10:25
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Wednesday, September 17, 2025 7:34 AM

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Ukraine continues to demonstrate its adeptness at innovating and fielding drones with increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) technology while maintaining accessible costs, significantly augmenting Ukrainian drone effectiveness.

Ukrainian outlet United24 Media reported on September 15 that Ukrainian drone producer Vyriy and Ukrainian defense technology company The Fourth Law (TFL) are launching mass production of Vyriy-10 first-person view (FPV) drones.[17] United24 Media reported that Vyriy equipped the Vyriy-10 drones with TFL’s TFL-1 terminal guidance module, an advanced AI guidance system that will enable drone operators to execute more precise strikes and navigate environments with pervasive electronic warfare (EW).

TFL Head Yaroslav Azhnyuk stated that several Ukrainian units have leveraged the modified Vyriy-10 drones to increase drone strike effectiveness by two to four times. United24 Media noted that the drones cost approximately $448, making it only slightly more expensive than traditional Ukrainian-made FPV drones.

The integration of Ukrainian drones with AI guidance systems represents a significant technological advancement that will enable Ukrainian drone operators to conduct more accurate strikes and bypass frontline Russian EW to strike targets in the Russian near rear.[18]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-16-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, September 17, 2025 7:47 AM

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WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Trump administration's first U.S. weapons aid packages for Ukraine have been approved and could soon ship as Washington resumes sending arms to Kyiv.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-administratio
n-clears-first-ukraine-arms-aid-paid-by-allies-sources-say-2025-09-16/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, September 18, 2025 8:52 AM

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'The Largest Battle of the Entire War' Is About to Begin in Eastern Ukraine

Russian and Ukrainian forces surge toward Pokrovsk

https://www.trenchart.us/p/the-largest-battle-of-the-entire

Sep 17, 2025

After weeks of reinforcement on both side, there are a lot of troops, drones, vehicles and artillery packed into the villages and forests around the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

For six weeks since a major incursion by a Russian motor rifle brigade, chaotic fighting has raged all along the 50-mile-long no-man’s-land threading from Pokrovsk’s southern neighborhoods east and north toward the villages of Rodynske and Dobropillya, which control one of the two main supply lines into Pokrovsk.

But the main fight looms as Russia finishes a theater-wide reshuffling of forces. “On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops concentrate all available forces, including those from Kursk Oblast [in western Russia] and operational reserves,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported.

“Russia has been moving forces into position in Pokrovsk for weeks/months at this point,” American analyst Andrew Perpetua noted. “They are preparing for what could end up being the largest battle of the entire war.”

With 150,000 Russians taking up positions opposite 50,000 or more dug-in Ukrainians, the bloodletting could be staggering. And the implications for the 43-month wider war could be profound. “You should not misread what is going on,” Perpetua stressed.

For a year and a half since capturing the ruins of Avdiivka just outside Donetsk city, a clutch of Russian field armies has been marching toward Pokrovsk, 25 miles to the west. Pokrovsk, a now nearly lifeless mining town, is the last major urban stronghold between the attacking Russians and the “fortress belt” of urban settlement stretching from Kramatorsk to Sloviansk, 20 miles north of Pokrovsk.

If Pokrovsk falls, the Russians should be able to lay siege to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. If those two cities fall, all of Donetsk Oblast—and thus all of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region—will almost certainly come under Russian control, more than 11 years after Russia first invaded Ukraine.

The stakes are enormous as both sides position for a clash they’ve known, for more than a year, was inevitable. The first major Russian assault, which could see Russian field armies deploy large numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles for the first time this year, could kick off “any day now,” Perpetua warned.

Tension & inaction

One Ukrainian observer, the drone operator Kriegsforscher, recently relayed intelligence indicating that a large formation of Russian marine regiments and brigades, well-equipped with armored vehicles, was wary of the huge number of tiny explosive drones Ukraine has stockpiled for the Pokrovsk battle.

If that’s true, the marines may be hoping that Russia’s own drone teams can suppress Ukraine’s drone teams in the coming weeks.

There may be other explanations for the relative calm before the coming storm around Pokrovsk. Perpetua pointed to large-scale clashes around Lyman, just north of Sloviansk. “I personally believe they [the Russians] are waiting for Lyman to be decided,” Perpetua wrote.

It’s also possible the Russians are waiting for the weather to change, Perpetua proposed. But the fall mud may actually complicate large-scale vehicle deployments. Moreover, the forests at Pokrovsk will offer less and less concealment to Russian forces as their leaves fall, Kriegsforscher pointed out.

The last and potentially best explanation for the Russians’ weird inaction around Pokrovsk is that their forces in the sector are tired and disorganized. The Center for Defense Strategies, which has long predicted Pokrovsk would fall this year, has nevertheless concluded that the Russian field armies responsible for capturing the city are much weaker than they look.

“Military units transferred to Dobropillya from Toretsk [30 miles to the east], not having had time to restore their combat capability, are not able to significantly influence Ukrainian defense forces, who possess the initiative here,” CDS explained.

Meanwhile, the five Russian marine regiments and brigades massed east of Pokrovsk—the ones whose commanders are allegedly spooked by Ukraine’s drone—were “hastily transferred” from Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine, CDS pointed out.

The weary and unprepared Russian units are too densely packed and uncoordinated to efficiently deploy their artillery, CDS claimed. “The strike aviation of the Russian aerospace forces partially tries to perform its role but cannot replace it completely.”

If the delay in battle for Pokrovsk is the result of dysfunction in Russian headquarters, Russian troops should worry even more than usual. The order to attack will eventually come—whether or not Russian drones and artillery are ready to support that attack.

Ukrainian brigades in and around Pokrovsk have “been doing nothing but preparing for this [battle] for the past year,” Perpetua wrote. If the Russians roll in without adequate support, they’re probably going to die in large numbers—and squander hard-to-replace vehicles they’ve been saving up for the better part of a year.

Roy, a Canadian drone expert, expected this all along. “All the armored Russian vehicles apparently concentrating near Pokrovsk will be destroyed by Ukrainian [first-person-view drones] and drone-dropped anti-tank land mines, if the Russians are actually foolish enough to assault,” he predicted.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, September 18, 2025 9:11 AM

THG

Keep it real please


Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I watched an extended video of drone warfare from the Russian side.




Of course you did comrade. Try watching an extended video of drone warfare for the Ukrainian side.

T

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Friday, September 19, 2025 6:13 AM

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Why Putin Can’t Afford to Let Ukraine Prosper

A free and thriving Ukraine would make it undeniable that Putin’s rule has been an economic disaster for Russia.

By Michael Tory | Sept. 18, 2025 10:08 am ET

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-putin-can-t-afford-to-let-ukr
aine-prosper/ar-AA1MPiw3
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/why-putin-cant-afford-to-let-ukraine-
prosper-9854e35e

Since 1990, the former Russian satellites that have joined the European Union have generated an almost 10-fold average increase in national GDP. By contrast, the national GDP of Russia itself and the non-EU countries on its western border have grown by just a factor of four over that same period.

As a result, in a single generation, the combined economic weight of the countries that escaped Russia’s orbit now exceeds that of Russia itself, a stunning reversal of fortunes. As experience shows, such disparate economic performance among nations intimately linked by history and geography almost invariably leads to resentment.

In 1990, the Russian Federation’s GDP was twice the combined GDP of the new EU countries ($500 billion versus about $250 billion). Today the combined GDP of the new EU countries is $2.4 trillion compared with $2.2 trillion for Russia, a gap in prosperity that grows wider with each passing year. It is a far cry from Putin’s forecast in 2001 that Russia would enjoy such robust economic growth that, by 2020, it would be the world’s fifth-largest economy. It is 11th today.

Looking at the region’s map, beginning where Russia meets Finland and moving down through the Baltics, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, we arrive at the only incomplete segment of the EU border with Russia: the four former Soviet republics of Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and, of course, Ukraine. Ukraine has more people, landmass and GDP than the other three combined.

Thus Putin’s obsession: Ukraine is, in effect, the tipping-point state. Once it joins the EU and generates economic growth comparable to the other former Soviet satellites already in the economic bloc, the gravitational pull of Ukraine’s prosperity will be irresistible for its three smaller neighbors.

For Putin, the implications of Ukraine’s prospective economic success are dire. The Russian public is so conditioned to view Ukraine as ethnically and linguistically similar to Russia that its prosperity would raise difficult questions inside Russia. If the countries are so much the same, the only plausible explanation for a radical divergence in their economic success would be the political and economic fundamentals of Russia itself.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Friday, September 19, 2025 7:58 AM

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The Kremlin appears to be conducting a coordinated information campaign threatening Finland. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on September 18 that the Finnish government’s “neutral veneer peeled off” and that revanchism is “literally on the rise” in Finland.[18] Russian Environmental Protection, Ecology, and Transport Special Presidential Representative Sergei Ivanov claimed on September 18 that Russian-Finnish relations “practically do not exist” and will not improve in the near future as Finland is a NATO member and is “actively calling for strengthening [its] eastern border.”[19] Ivanov claimed that the Finnish population is unsatisfied with the Finnish government and alleged that the lack of Russian tourists has led to “depopulation” and a weakening economy in southeastern Finland. Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa similarly claimed on September 18 that Finland’s NATO membership caused Russians to stop buying property and visiting Finland, leading to “depopulation.”[20]

Ivanov is a member of Putin’s inner circle, serving as the deputy director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) from 1998 to 1999 when Putin headed the organization.[21] Ivanov also served as the defense minister, deputy prime minister, and chief of staff of the Presidential Administration.[22] Ivanov’s removal from his position as the chief of staff of the Presidential Administration in 2016 was likely a demotion at the time, but the Kremlin appears to be using him to reinforce ongoing Russian efforts to threaten Finland.[23] Kremlin newswire TASS and other Russian state media outlets notably amplified Lavrov’s, Ivanov’s, and Chepa’s statements.[24] The similar wording in both Ivanov’s and Chepa’s claims and TASS’ amplification of their comments suggests that this is a concerted top-down Kremlin informational effort targeting Finland.[25] High-ranking Kremlin officials have increased threats against Finland in recent weeks, including by using language that mirrors the Kremlin’s false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine.[26] ISW continues to assess that the playbook Russia is currently using to threaten NATO mirrors the playbook Russia previously used to set informational conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine.[27]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-18-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, September 20, 2025 7:37 AM

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Ukraine's New Big Boom FP-2 Drone Is Blowing Up Russian Bases In the Most Important Sectors

The FP-2 packs a 230-pound warhead

Sept 19, 2025

https://www.trenchart.us/p/ukraines-new-big-boom-fp-2-drone

In late February, a Ukrainian force of around a dozen battalions was stubbornly clinging to a 250-square-mile salient in Kursk Oblast in western Russia.

That salient was an embarrassment to Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin. So the Kremlin deployed its best drone unit to Kursk on a mission of supreme importance.

The Rubicon Center of Advanced Unmanned Systems wasn’t well-known at the time. But it quickly achieved fame in Russia—and notoriety in Ukraine. Surging unjammable fiber-optic first-person-view drones into Kursk, Rubicon destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles in the span of a few weeks, effectively collapsing the Ukrainians’ supply lines into Kursk.

In early March, the Ukrainian battalions in the salient beat a hasty retreat. And in the coming months, Rubicon packed up and moved to the next most important battlefield in Russia’s wider war on Ukraine: the one around Pokrovsk, a fortress city anchoring Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

The Ukrainians aren’t just waiting around for Rubicon to do in Pokrovsk what it did in Kursk—sever the supply lines. They’re taking the fight to Rubicon. On Friday, Ukrainian forces located a Rubicon base in Ukrainsk, 13 miles south of Pokrovsk. They attacked with a new, more destructive strike drone—the Fire Point FP-2.

As a surveillance drone watched from overhead, four of the new FP-2s slammed into the building reportedly housing the Rubicon operators. (See video above.)

The propeller-driven FP-2 is a version of Fire Point’s classic FP-1 that’s optimized for short-range attacks. Where the FP-1 devotes most of its 600-pound payload to fuel, extending its range to nearly 900 miles, the FP-2 devotes most of its payload to its warhead.

So where the FP-1 strikes with a 130-pound warhead, the FP-2 explodes with a much more powerful 230-pound warhead. The downside is the newer drone’s limited range: just 130 miles or so. That range makes the FP-2 unsuitable for strikes on oil refineries and other strategic targets deep inside Russia—but for near hits, it’s just the thing.
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/fire-point-introduces-fp-2-frontline-st
rike-drone/

Big boom drone

The FP-2, which comes from the same company that’s developing the new Flamingo cruise missile, is quickly becoming a favorite of Ukrainian drone units operating close to the front line. Around the same time those four FP-2s were blasting Rubicon’s base in Ukrainsk, a huge formation of 19(!) FP-2s bombarded the headquarters of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Kursk.

The 810th Naval Infantry Brigade is one of the few Russian marine brigades left in the sector stretching from Kursk Oblast in western Russia to Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine. The other five marine units that had been fighting in Sumy have now redeployed to the Pokrovsk sector alongside Rubicon.

As a consequence of the Kremlin’s new all-or-nothing focus on Pokrovsk, Russian forces in Sumy are fragile—and the Ukrainian forces in the area know it. Special operations drone teams are escalating their attacks on the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, suppressing the brigade in Kursk as Ukrainian ground troops advance in Sumy.

Meanwhile, the reinforced Ukrainian garrison in Pokrovsk is bracing for what American analyst Andrew Perpetua predicted would be “the largest battle of the entire war.” With recent reinforcements including those marine units from Sumy, the Russian field armies around Pokrovsk might have 150,000 troops as well as hundreds of tanks and other armored vehicles.

And in a departure from a year of mostly infantry-led assaults, the Russians around Pokrovsk are clearly planning for large mechanized assaults. “We will see again the usage of [armored fighting vehicle] columns,” wrote Kriegsforscher, who flies drones in support of Ukrainian brigades north of Pokrovsk. “And it will be very bloody for both sides.”

The problem, of course, is that vehicles are easy to spot from the air—and thus vulnerable to drone strikes. Intelligence indicates the Russian marines who just deployed to the Pokrovsk sector have delayed their main attack “due to the enormous amount of [Ukrainian] UAVs in the air,” Kriegsforscher explained.

It’s Rubicon’s job to suppress the Ukrainian drone teams that make mechanized assaults so risky. Observers have mapped hundreds of fiber-optic FPV strikes by Rubicon teams near Pokrovsk.

A Ukrainian soldier named Andrii, from the 419th Battalion of Unmanned Systems, told Ukrainian-American war correspondent David Kirichenko his team barely escaped a Rubicon drone strike.

Their truck, drones and ammunition for the drones were destroyed, however—so the hit was successful, as far as Rubicon was concerned. “Their goal is to target Ukrainian logistics,” Andrii said.

The Russians plan to attack Pokrovsk with tanks. The Ukrainians plan to defeat the attack with thousands of FPV drones. Rubicon is trying to suppress the Ukrainian drone teams in order to prevent that defeat. Ukraine’s FP-2 operators are trying to suppress Rubicon in order to prevent Rubicon from preventing the Ukrainian FPV teams from defeating the coming tank assault.

The side whose drone strikes are most successful is positioned to win the battle.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, September 21, 2025 7:17 AM

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on September 19 that Ukraine will begin financing its defense industrial base (DIB) partly through the export of certain Ukrainian weapons.[23] Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian DIB produces surpluses of modern weapons systems, such as naval drones and anti-tank weapons, and that Ukraine intends to export these surpluses in order to finance the production of additional drones for Ukrainian forces. Zelensky noted that supplying Ukrainian forces fighting against Russia’s invasion and replenishing domestic weapons stockpiles remain the Ukrainian DIB’s top priorities.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-20-2025/

[23] https://www.president.gov.ua/news/suttyevi-u-rosiyan-vtrati-suttyevo-p
opovneno-i-obminnij-fond-100233

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, September 21, 2025 7:29 AM

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Weekend Update #151: The Most Revealing Military Development Of The Last Month

The Ukrainian Attacks On Refineries Continue: Is US Intelligence Changing Its Tune?

By Phillips P. OBrien | Sep 21, 2025

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-151-the-most-rev
ealing

The Ukrainian Attacks On Refineries Continue

The strategic air war continued unabated last week and both sides launched attacks that are revealing of their different strategies. The Russians seemed to be concentrating on attacking Ukrainian civilians. They launched another massive attack on the evening of September 19-20, using what the Ukrainians are saying was 619 drones and missiles. This included 579 drones, 8 ballistic missiles and 32 cruise missiles.

In particular this attack was focussed on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro and other urban areas which are relatively close to the front. Here is the Ukrainian map of the air assault—note the concentration on Dnipro and the East.
Image

This attack seems deliberately aimed at Ukrainian civilian morale, and caused a number of casualties. Indeed the differentiation between the drones (yellow lines) and the cruise missiles (red lines) might be revealing. The cruise missiles, the small number of streaks heading into western Ukraine, could represent attempts to take out specific targets of strategic value (perhaps a location where the Russians believe Ukrainian war production is occurring). However the yellow attacks (drones) and the ballistic missiles (orange) are aimed at what seems to be civilian sites in the east in Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, etc.

The Ukrainians, meanwhile continued to attack Russian oil refineries. They attacked the Russian refinery at Saratov twice this week; yesterday and on the evening of September 16. The Ukrainians also seem to have struck yesterday at the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Samara—which could be the first attack on this facility.

There are two pieces of good news in these attacks and one less good. The good news is that the Ukrainians definitely seem to have grasped the idea of repeated strategic attacks to neutralize important targets, in this case refineries. They have definitely moved away from the one and done method of strategic air power that seemed to be the case before. The second good piece of news is that Russian air defense is showing major weaknesses. For the Ukrainians to have what looks to be two successful attacks on the same target in the same week points to serious Russian air defense problems. This second point was buttressed when it became public that the Russians are trying to buy back some of the S-400 air defense systems that they sold to Turkey many years ago.

note: considering the mixed performance of the S-400, the Turks might indeed send them back and take a profit.

The less good news is that the Ukrainian strategic air campaign does seem to be in a bit of a steady state. They are attacking 2 or 3 oil targets per week. That is enough to maintain slow progress. However to have the kind of strategic impact the Ukrainians want, they will have to ramp up this campaign by a great deal—at least double. If they launch close to daily attacks on refineries or other parts of the Russian oil industry—that will be notable.

Much more at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-151-the-most-rev
ealing

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, September 22, 2025 6:12 AM

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Russia Faces a Fraught Homecoming for Hundreds of Thousands of Ukraine War Veterans

By Anastasia Tenisheva | Sep. 19, 2025

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/19/is-russia-ready-for-the-retu
rn-of-soldiers-scarred-by-war-a90560

When President Vladimir Putin praised veterans of the war in Ukraine this year as “the elite who defend the Motherland,” he cast them as a generation of men ready to lead Russia into the future.

“It’s not frightening to hand the country over to people like this,” he said.

Yet the return of Russian soldiers from Ukraine is already straining families and communities, with violent crimes drawing headlines and neighbors on edge. With some 700,000 men still fighting, the country now faces the far larger test of what will happen when they all come home.

“War veterans often find it difficult to integrate back into civilian society even with psychological support and rehabilitation programs,” Dr. Jenny Mathers, senior lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University, told The Moscow Times.

“The absence of such support for many Russian war veterans, combined with the emphasis in Russian society on men displaying certain types of masculine behavior — such as toughness, concealing softer emotions such as sorrow or fear — will make it even harder,” said Mathers, whose research focuses on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Cases of returning soldiers committing crimes have been steadily growing.

In one recent example, Alexei Marchukov, a soldier on leave from the front, was convicted of killing his wife on their wedding night in the Tyumen region. He was sentenced to 12.5 years in a maximum-security penal colony.

Court records show that Marchukov, intoxicated after the wedding celebration, fatally stabbed his wife after an argument. His sister testified that he had previously signed up for the army to avoid prison after repeated arrests for debauchery.

After the verdict was read, he reportedly told the court he hoped to return to the front, a reminder of the revolving door between Russia’s battlefields and its prisons.

Russia’s convict recruitment efforts began under the Wagner mercenary group in mid-2022, with prisoners offered a pardon in exchange for six months of military service. The Defense Ministry took over the practice in early 2023.

Analysts say the policy has planted the seeds for future crimes.

The war “is already affecting the country’s criminal situation and will inevitably continue to influence crime in the future,” said Villy Maslov, a researcher at the Ural Law Institute of the Interior Ministry, who analyzed the war’s impact on crime in Russia and statistics on convictions for 2019-2023.

He argued that it is “only a matter of time” before released convicts commit another crime and that their reintegration into society is unlikely without state support.

There are currently no mandatory psychological or mental health assessments for soldiers returning from the war.

Experts warn that in some cases, only a short time passed between sentencing and deployment to the front — raising concerns that once back, these fighters may turn their anger on those involved in their prosecution.

The Foundation for the Support of Victims of Crime in March called for ending the practice of pardoning men convicted of serious crimes in exchange for fighting in Ukraine.

And in 2024, Nina Ostanina, chair of the State Duma’s Family Protection Committee, proposed placing ex-convicts under permanent supervision upon their return from the war.

However, neither proposal was implemented.

Like in Marchukov’s case, Mathers said “there is a well-established connection between soldiers returning from deployment to conflict zones and an increase in domestic violence in their households.”

“Several studies have been done in the United States, for example about American soldiers returning from deployment to the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but there is also evidence from other countries to support the theory that the families of soldiers coming home from war are at increased risk of abuse from their husbands and fathers,” she told The Moscow Times.

Some 500 people have fallen victim to violent crimes at the hands of soldiers returned from Ukraine, with 378 killed and another 376 surviving with serious injuries, the exiled news outlet Vyorstka reported in February.

The Kremlin is well aware of these dangers. Putin himself has reportedly identified the return of soldiers as a potential risk to social stability, Reuters reported, citing three sources close to the Kremlin.

One source told Reuters that the goal is to avoid a repeat of the social upheaval that followed the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan, when veterans returned to find little support and went on to fuel organized crime in the turbulent 1990s.

To minimize public alarm, the Kremlin has instructed pro-government media outlets to play down reports of crimes committed by veterans, the exiled news website Meduza reported.

Putin said this week that more than 700,000 Russian soldiers are currently on the front lines. Sergei Novikov, a senior Kremlin official, said in June that about 137,000 soldiers had already come home.

Yet the exact number of recruited prisoners remains unclear, with estimates ranging from a few thousand to tens of thousands. It is also unknown how many returned from service to civilian life.

Money poses another challenge, as soldiers can earn far more on the battlefield than in civilian jobs. A recruit in Moscow receives about 5.2 million rubles ($62,600) in their first year of service, more than double the city’s average annual salary.

Most of the soldiers who have returned home were “young people” who need jobs, Kremlin official Novikov said, stressing that “they need to return in a way that does not reduce their family’s income.”

The return of thousands of men from the battlefield could also trigger a mental health crisis in Russia, experts warn.

“The memories of the terrible things that these soldiers would have experienced, including terrible things that they would have done to others,” could trigger coping mechanism like using alcohol or drugs, self-harm and suicide, Mathers said.

Russian soldiers often face brutal treatment from their own comrades on the front lines. Reports describe “pits” at Russian military training grounds where soldiers who break rules or refuse to go to the front line are held and sometimes tortured.

Servicemen who were drafted after the September 2022 mobilization reported such prisons in the Bryansk, Volgograd and Orenburg regions as well as in the occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

While the Defense Ministry and state-backed initiatives offer rehabilitation programs, even officials admit that soldiers themselves do not always realize they need psychological help.

Nikolai Khlyzov, the human rights commissioner in Siberia’s Zabaikalsky region, said that men returning from combat do not want to attend psychotherapy and urged soldiers to visit psychologists with their families.

“They say: ‘What, am I sick or something? What if they put me on some kind of list — then I could lose my driver’s license and won’t be able to get a job’,” Khlyzov said.

The Russian government has sought to elevate veterans’ public image, casting them as heroes and even encouraging them to run for office.

During this month’s nationwide elections, some 1,600 veterans stood for election across the country, more than 800 of whom won seats at the gubernatorial, regional and local levels.

But critics argue that this official embrace risks normalizing violence.

“The Russian state’s emphasis on the heroism of soldiers and returning war veterans and its plans to turn them into the country’s new elites will reinforce the message that they will face no consequences [for violence],” Mathers said.

“All in all, Russian society will be significantly changed as a result of this war,” she said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, September 22, 2025 6:28 AM

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Victory Before Russian Orthodox Church Christmas – A Gift From Putin To His People

The "logic" of impending victory goes like this:

Hitler invaded Russia on June 22, 1941. Germany's unconditional surrender occurred on May 7, 1945.

There were 1,415 days between June 22, 1941, and May 7, 1945

1,415 days after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, will be January 9, 2026.

Russia celebrates Christmas on January 7th because the Russian Orthodox Church refused to adopt the Gregorian calendar in 1582.

The War will be over before Christmas. Putin guarantees it because there is no possibility that the Ukraine War, also known as the Special Military Operation, is bigger than World War II.

[The surrender of the Empire of Japan in World War II was announced by Emperor Hirohito on 15 August. Russia invaded Japan's Kuril Islands on 18 August because why not? Perfect time to steal part of Japan. In 2025, Japan still wants those islands back. Russia still won't return them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_the_Kuril_Islands ]

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, September 23, 2025 6:39 AM

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An Update On The Ukrainian Campaign Against Russian Refineries

Phillips P. Obrien | Sep 23

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/an-update-on-the-ukrainian-camp
aign

Hi All,

I get asked pretty regularly about where things stand in the Ukrainian ranged campaign against Russian refineries. Hard figures are difficult to come by and we have no idea how quickly, if at all, certain refineries can be restored by the Russians to partial or even full production after they have been attacked. However, there are some good databases being accumulated on what has been attacked and when, and that information can help give us some idea of what is happening.

One of the best visual representations (though be careful it does make individual attacks look more successful than they almost certainly are) is this which was put together by a Ukrainian on twitter.
https://x.com/KHoholenko/status/1969267281684271415

I ran this by some Ukrainian friends and they said that the metadata looked about right, so that is good. That being said, the graphic also almost certainly overstates the effectiveness of the campaign to this point—while giving a decent snapshot of what Ukraine seems to be doing (and what it needs to do more often).

The really helpful part of the data included is that we can see the rough refining capacity of each refinery, whether it has been attacked and when, and its distance from Ukraine. For instance, here is a close up of the Kirishi Refinery near St Petersburg.

You can see the refining capacity of Kirishi at top (20.1 million tons annually), its distance from Ukraine (about 810 kilometres) and that it has been attacked once (on September 14, 2025). The refinery is on fire and the date in red on the right bottom when this attack occurred.

Note, if a refinery has no blaze graphic it has never been attacked and if it has been attacked multiple times there will be multiple dates at the bottom. To see multiple attacks, check out the Ryazan refinery which is next graphically to Kirishi and which has been attacked 8 times—which is not surprising as its so close to Ukraine at around 480 kilometres.

Now, one area where the graph is deceptively optimistic is that it has a picture of how much of Russia’s refining capacity would be lost if every refinery attacked even once was put out of action.

Now there is no way that every refinery attacked just once was fully out of action—and we do not even know if Ryazan has been completely demolished. So I really wish this graphic were not there. However the rest of the chart is quite helpful in telling us where the capacity bottlenecks are, and what Ukraine is trying to do and needs to do more.

The distance to refining capacity ratio is a great place to start. The key thing for Ukraine is to hammer Russia’s overall refining capacity, and hitting the largest refineries is the best way to do this. And, naturally, the closer they are to Ukraine, the easier they are to attack. Ukrainian systems launched from Ukraine have shown to be pretty reliable to 1000 kilometres, and the closer they are the less time the Russians have to intercept, etc.

Now, the sixteen largest refineries in Russia (the top three rows in the graphic) together refine just over 200 million tons annually, which is almost two thirds of Russia’s overall capacity. Moreover, of these 16, 8 are within 1000 kilometres, and together these 8 refine almost 112 million tons.

I hope your eyes are not glazing over here.

These 8 therefore can be attacked the easiest, the most often, and represent the best targets at present. Even without Ukraine’s new Flamingo cruise missiles (which have a stated range of around 3000 kilometres—though the effective range will be far less than this because of deceptive routing, zig-zagging, etc). Ukrainian systems now have been shown to be able to get through Russian air defense up to 1000 kilometres in reasonable numbers. We have a pretty good indication already, as I wrote in the last weekend update, that Russian air defense is being pushed into a very bad stage. If you keep up a heavy attack on these 8 refineries (and why has Yaroslavl not been attacked at all?) you are laying the groundwork for eventual success.

What am I talking about—well something like the Ryazan attacks every few months instead of over 2 years.

At the same time, there are another 50 or so million tons of refining capacity within 1000 kilometres in smaller refineries. These are also worthwhile targets, particularly where they have shown themselves to be attackable (see Saratov). You go after them at about half the clip of the top 8 (always your number 1 priority).

By focussing on these refineries within 1000 kilometres now, Ukraine can take out or damage about 40% of Russia’s refining capacity (a big ask admittedly). They wont do that—but they could take out over 30%

Then the Ukrainians turn to the refineries at between 1000-2000 kilometres. Btw, you do not ignore these latter refineries now, you hit them when you can, but then really go after them once you have the Flamingos and other new systems (and yes the Ukrainians are developing a number of new systems that people do not know about) in mass. These refineries at a distance of between 1000-2000 kilometres from Ukraine have a capacity of approximately 85 million tons. If you can take those out next, you basically have 70% of Russia’s refining capacity under regular bombardment.

Oh, you do launch the occasional raid on the refineries more than 2000 kilometres distance—just to keep the Russians on their toes and wear down their air defenses even further.

So the road to attacking Russian refineries is clear when you see graphics like above.

For now, focus on refineries within 1000 kilometres, especially the largest ones. Hit them repeatedly. Then, when the longer ranged, heavier systems come on board, broaden out to go after the refineries at between 1000-2000 kilometres distance. Its better to concentrate attacks on the largest facilities and hit them repeatedly to try and put them out of action.

The Russian refining industry is vulnerable and close to Ukraine, its a question now of putting it out of action.

Thanks for reading Phillips’s Newsletter! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, September 24, 2025 7:34 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukrainian Operations in The Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure on the night of September 22 to 23. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported on September 23 that Ukrainian drone operators struck two Russian linear production and dispatch stations along the main oil pipelines in Bryansk and Samara oblasts.[8] The USF reported that the pipeline in Bryansk Oblast supplied oil products to the Russian military. Moscow City Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that Ukrainian drones also targeted Moscow City, and Russian authorities announced temporary restrictions at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport during the strikes.[9] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces downed over 130 drones over Russia and occupied Crimea on September 22 and 23.[10]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-september-23-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, September 24, 2025 7:49 AM

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To Propel Their Giant Flamingo Missiles, the Ukrainians Scraped Old Engines From a Landfill
The AI-25TLs have just enough life left

Sep 23

https://www.trenchart.us/p/to-propel-their-giant-flamingo-missiles

The Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo flies low and fast, reportedly powering right through Russian jamming under inertial guidance to deliver a whopping 2,500-pound warhead that can blast through concrete.

And it does it with an expired jet engine that Fire Point dug out of a landfill, chief technology officer Iryna Terekh told Militarnyii. The company has almost completely automated missile production and divided it into many different locations. As of early September, the production rate was about 2 missiles per day (full cycle). The plan is to reach 200 per month by the end of this year.
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/fire-point-localizes-production-of-jet-
engines-for-cruise-missiles/

“There are thousands of such engines, and we bought them in advance to have a stock before scaling up,” Terekh said.

It’s apparent Terekh is referring to time-expired Ivchenko AI-25TL turbofans. The AI-25TL, which powers Aero L-39 jet trainers and other light aircraft, produces 4,000 pounds of thrust.

An L-39 weighs five tons, which is two tons less than a Flamingo weighs. But the L-39 must be maneuverable, where the Flamingo is expected to fly a simple course at a steady high subsonic speed under inertial and satellite guidance.

The AI-25TL is more than adequate—and, more importantly, it’s abundant. Ukrainian firm Motor Sich can reportedly still build new examples.

But Fire Point isn’t buying new engines for the two Flamingos it’s currently building every day. Instead, it installs worn-out, but minimally refurbished, AI-25TLs that are near their certified 750-hour time between overhaul.

Given that the $40,000 AI-25TL is “obsolete” for manned warplanes, according to Combat Aircraft reporter Alexander Mladenov, Motor Sich has probably been discarding many more of the turbofans than it overhauls—and has been doing so for decades.

Those are the engines the firm hauled out of a landfill soon after designing the carbon-fiber Flamingo last year.

Tired engines

An engine with 10 hours of safe operation left isn’t very useful for a manned plane. But for a single-use cruise missile that might fly for three hours before exploding, 10 hours is more than enough.

With a low-price warhead based on old gravity bombs and an equally affordable engine, a Flamingo should cost much less than $1 million—a comparative steal for a heavy cruise missile. A Russian Kh-101 or American Tomahawk both cost several times as much.

The engines Fire Point dug out of the trash won’t last forever as Flamingo production ramps up, and the company knows it. “We need to think about tomorrow,” Terekh said. “That’s why we are already building a plant under the license of a Ukrainian manufacturer”—Motor Sich, presumably—“to produce this engine ourselves from the beginning of next year.”

Expect Fire Point to produce a single-use version of the AI-25TL that has no durable and expensive titanium parts. Also expect Fire Point to spread its production facilities and subcontractors as widely as possible to mitigate the risk from Russian bombardment. The company has already signed a deal with the Danish government to locate missile fuel production in Denmark.

If there’s a major bottleneck in Flamingo operations at the moment, it’s launch capacity. Terekh said Fire Point isn’t yet “satisfied with the scale of launches,” to quote Militarnyii.
https://militarnyi.com/uk/articles/novi-bojovi-chastyny-i-vlasne-vyrob
nytstvo-dvyguniv-dlya-flamingo-ta-inshi-pidsumky-preskonferentsiyi-fire-point/

While the missiles reportedly launch from civilian-style trucks that are hard to tell from non-military traffic, Ukrainian forces are apparently cautious about grouping too many of the trucks together—and risking Russian counterattack.

The first confirmed Flamingo strike, on Aug. 30, was modest. Ukrainian crews launched three of the missiles at a facility in Armiansk, 60 miles from the front line in northern Crimea.

The base is reportedly operated by the Russian federal security service, the FSB—and also sheltered some patrol hovercraft including Khivus A-8s, 25-footers capable of transporting eight troops.

The damage was minimal, if Militarnyi’s reporting is accurate: six hovercraft damaged and one Russian killed. But the strike did leave behind an ominously large crater.

Thanks for reading Trench Art! This post is public so feel free to share it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, September 24, 2025 8:36 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option. Why not? Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win. This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like “a paper tiger.” When the people living in Moscow, and all of the Great Cities, Towns, and Districts all throughout Russia, find out what is really going on with this War, the fact that it’s almost impossible for them to get Gasoline through the long lines that are being formed, and all of the other things that are taking place in their War Economy, where most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine, which has Great Spirit, and only getting better, Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act. In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all!

DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Sep 23, 2025, 1:55 PM

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115255130298104593

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, September 24, 2025 5:14 PM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine’s Plan to Starve the Russian War Machine

Negotiations have stalled. Trump keeps changing his policies. Ukrainians, backed by Europeans, are taking matters into their own hands.

By Anne Applebaum | September 24, 2025, 3:25 PM ET

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/09/ukraines-strategy-to
-win-the-war/684356/
or
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-plan-to-starve-the-russ
ian-war-machine/ar-AA1NeGCI

In one section of a sprawling warehouse in central Ukraine, workers have stacked what appear to be small airplane wings in neat rows. In another section, a group of men is huddled around what looks like the body of an aircraft, adjusting an electronic panel. In makeshift locations elsewhere in Ukraine, workers are producing these electronic panels from scratch: This company wants to use as few imported parts as possible, avoiding anything American, anything Chinese. Jewelers, I was told, have turned out to be well suited for this kind of finicky manufacturing. Ukraine’s justly celebrated manicurists are good at it too.

They are not alone in being new to the job. Everyone in this factory had a different profession three years ago, because this factory did not exist three years ago. Nor did the Ukrainian drone industry, of which it forms part. Whatever their job description before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, everyone at this production site is now part of a major shift in the politics and economics of the war, one that hasn’t been fully understood by all of Ukraine’s allies.

Once almost entirely dependent on imports of weapons from abroad, the Ukrainians are now producing millions of drones, large and small, as well as other kinds of weapons, every year. They are using them most famously on the front line, where they have prevented the Russians from making large-scale gains this year, despite dire headlines, and where they have ensured that any territory occupied by the Russians comes at a terrible price, in equipment and lives. The Ukrainians have also used sea drones to clear their Black Sea coast of Russian ships, an accomplishment that seemed impossible even to imagine at the start of the war.

Finally, they are using drones to hit distant targets, deep inside Russia, and lately they are hitting so many military objects, refineries, and pipelines that some Ukrainians believe they can do enough damage to force the Russians to end the war. On Monday, they once again struck Gazprom’s fuel-processing plant in Astrakhan, for example, one of the largest gas-chemical complexes in the world and an important source of both gasoline and diesel. Yesterday, they hit a key part of an oil pipeline in Bryansk. Presumably President Volodymyr Zelensky transmitted this optimism to President Donald Trump, who again upended his administration’s previous policies yesterday and declared that Ukraine is “in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

The company that I visited, Fire Point, specializes in weaponry for these long-range attacks, producing large drones that can travel up to 1,400 kilometers and stay in the air for seven hours. Fire Point recently attracted attention for its newest product, the Flamingo cruise missile, which can hit targets at 3,000 kilometers, and the company is testing ballistic missiles, too. These capabilities have put Fire Point at the cutting edge of Ukraine’s most ambitious strategy: the campaign to damage Russian refineries, pipeline stations, and other economic assets, especially oil-related assets. Trump has still never applied any real pressure on Russia, and is slowly lifting the Biden administration’s sanctions by refusing to update them. By targeting Russia’s oil and gas industry, the Ukrainians have been applying “sanctions” on their own.

This campaign is not new. I spoke with a Ukrainian officer responsible for helping coordinate the long-range-bombing campaign, and he told me that “sporadic” attempts to hit targets deep in Russia began immediately after the start of the invasion. After the Ukrainians received some American drones under the aegis of a program called Phoenix Ghost, their efforts became more serious. Made for different kinds of wars, the American drones were susceptible to Russian jamming, and the U.S. imposed restrictions on their use. One former soldier now involved in drone manufacturing told me that the Ukrainians weren’t necessarily prepared to use them either. He and some colleagues found boxes of drones in a warehouse along with some other U.S. equipment in the first year of the war, and figured out how to use them from videos they found on the internet. Only later did they receive real instruction. (I agreed not to identify the officer or the former soldier, who fear for their security.)

Whatever their faults, these American donations did inspire the creation of long-range-drone units. Some are part of the military; others are connected to Ukrainian intelligence. As they grew to understand the technology, the commanders of these units, just like the teams deploying battlefield drones and sea drones, concluded that they needed their own drones, as well as their own drone research and development, with a constant feedback loop between the operators on the front lines and the industrial engineers. As the officer told me, “Everything interesting started a year ago, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine started to receive mass numbers of Ukrainian-made drones.” Once their own production lines were in place, they were not trapped by technology invented somewhere else, and they could continually update it to counter advances in Russian tactics and electronic-warfare technology: “What we had two years ago or a year ago,” the officer said, “it’s dramatically different from what we are operating right now.” A weapon that worked last winter might no longer have been useful over the summer.

As a result of both new technology and expanded capacity, the numbers of attacks inside Russia have increased. The officer told me that Ukraine’s long-range-drone units now launch several dozen strikes on Russia every night.

Until recently, the impact of the long-range-drone campaign was hard to measure. The Ukrainians do not always admit to hitting targets deep inside Russia, and many of the targets are in obscure places, where no one is around to record the strike on a cellphone. Russian authorities also make a major effort to hide these strikes and the damage they do, both from their own population and from the rest of the world. On one occasion, Ukrainians learned from satellite pictures that their drones had successfully struck a military airport. They could see debris, oil spills, and other evidence of a successful attack. Just three hours later, all of that evidence was gone: The Russians had cleared the airfield and cleaned the tarmac.

Sometimes evidence emerges anyway, usually via a home video, posted to Telegram, made by a Russian who happens to be near a burning factory or exploding refinery and is shouting for his wife to come and look. But even so, it can be hard to know whether these dramatic fires are caused by drones or by Ukraine’s even more clandestine sabotage campaign inside Russia, alleged to have both Russian and Ukrainian participants. The vacuum has left the field open for what the officer called “fake experts,” and sometimes false claims from those who want to steal credit.

But the Ukrainian military does keep careful track of the damage being done, and has thought carefully about how to prioritize certain targets. It has disrupted airports and hit weapons factories and depots. The Ukrainian officer told me that, early on in the war, his colleagues realized that the Russians are not deterred by the deaths of their soldiers: “Russia can sustain extremely high levels of casualties and losses in human lives. They don’t care about people’s lives.” However, “it is painful for them to lose money.” They need money to fund their oligarchy, as well as to bribe their soldiers to fight: “So naturally, we need to reduce the amount of money available for them.” Oil and oil products provide the majority of Russia’s state income. This is how the oil industry became the Ukrainians’ most important target.

The campaign against the oil industry has been helped by the degradation of Russian air defenses, which had been moved closer to the border of Ukraine and at the moment aren’t numerous enough to cover every possible economic target across a very large country. Since August, 16 of 38 Russian refineries have been hit, some multiple times. Among them are facilities in Samara, Krasnodar, Volgograd, Novokuibyshevsk, and Ryazan, among others, as well as oil depots in Sochi; an oil terminal at Primorsk, in the Baltic; and pumping stations along another pipeline that supplies crude oil in Ust-Luga, in the northern part of the Baltic. In August, the Ukrainians also hit the Unecha pumping station, a crucial part of the Druzhba pipeline that links Russia and Europe and still supplies oil to Hungary and Slovakia, the two European countries that have sought to block or undermine sanctions on Ukraine (and the only two European NATO states who, alongside Turkey, import Russian oil at all).

The result: Russian overall oil exports are now at their lowest point since the start of the war, and the Russians are running out of oil at home. The commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces has said that more than a fifth of Russian refining capacity has been destroyed. The regime has banned the export of refined oil products, because there isn’t enough for the domestic market. Gas stations are closed or badly supplied in areas across the country, including the suburbs of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Telegram accounts post videos of cars waiting in enormous lines. Earlier this month, Izvestiya, a state-owned newspaper, actually admitted to its readers that severe fuel shortages are spreading across central and eastern Russia, as well as in Crimea, a problem it attributed, laughably, to “the seasonal increase in fuel demand and the growth of tourism activity.”

Quietly, Europeans are backing Ukraine’s strategy. The Germans will invest $10.5 billion in support for Ukraine this year and next, a large chunk of which will be spent building drones. Sweden has pledged $7.4 billion. The European Union’s decision to invest $6 billion in a “Drone Alliance” with Ukraine is mostly designed to build anti-drone defenses along Europe’s eastern border, but that money will also accelerate production and benefit Ukraine as well.

Both the Ukrainians and their European allies are also looking harder at the so-called shadow fleet, the oil tankers now traveling around the world under flags of convenience, fraudulent flags, or no flags at all, carrying illicit Russian oil. Many are old, dangerous boats, with inexperienced crew and little or no insurance. Some have been involved in accidents already, and they could do real environmental damage in the Baltic Sea. Sweden, Germany, and Denmark have all announced that they will check the papers of these shadow tankers and sanction those that aren’t insured, adding them to a growing list of sanctioned ships. The point, for the moment, is not just to protect the environment but to raise the costs of Russian oil exports and thus to reduce the amount of money flowing into Russia and back up Ukraine’s air campaign. More extreme measures, including banning these unmarked, uninsured ships from the Baltic altogether, are under consideration too.

But that will take time, which no one in Ukraine wants to waste. No one wants to wait for Trump to impose new sanctions on Russia either. Drones, which can defend the front line and take the battle deep into Russia, can do more. In an address to the nation on September 14, Zelensky put it very clearly: “The most effective sanctions—the ones that work the fastest—are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots.” In the absence of an American policy that offers something other than rhetoric, the Ukrainians, backed by Europe, will pursue their own solution.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, September 25, 2025 7:25 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) deputies proposed a bill on August 20 that would punish “black widows” — women who marry Russian servicemen fighting in Ukraine to take advantage of servicemen’s death benefits.[15] Russian commanders reportedly have systematically misreported deceased and wounded servicemen as absent without official leave (AWOL) in an effort to reduce state compensations to Russian families and manipulate statistics on Russian casualties.[16]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-force-gen
eration-and-technological-adaptations-update-september-24-2025/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, September 25, 2025 7:26 AM

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The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Giant Robot Submarine Threatens Russia’s Kerch Bridge And Ports

By David Hambling | Sep 23, 2025, 10:15am EDT

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2025/09/23/giant-robot-subm
arine-threatens-russias-kerch-bridge-and-ports/

Ukraine has led the world in the development of combat drones, with small FPVs and larger bombers inflicting the majority of Russian losses. Ukrainian robot boats have scored some notable successes in the Black Sea. Now Ukraine is moving into the underwater domain with the unveiling of a giant new robot submarine at an exhibition in Lviv.

The underwater drone has a five-ton payload and is designed for minelaying and the “destruction of large stationary targets.” This sounds like a direct threat to Russia’s Kerch Bridge.

Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles

Robot submarines have been around for decades; not counting torpedoes, they go back to the 1950s. Many navies operate Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles or UUVs of different shapes and sizes for a variety of missions, generally in a supporting role such as mapping, intelligence gathering and counter-mine warfare. The U.S. Navy has recently stepped up activity in this area, and uses underwater drones like the 500-pound Remus 600.

The U.S. navy is also testing the Orca XLUUV, a submarine believed to be 85 feet long and with an endurance of several months. Orca will be able to launch smaller robot subs, as well as dropping off sensors and mines. Development started in 2017 and the first deployment is expected sometime next year.

War has forced Ukraine to move faster. Tech accelerator Brave1 announced the TLK-150 model in April 2023. While the U.S has been cautious with UUVs, assigning them to auxiliary roles, Ukraine has taken a more robust approach and used drones for attack missions. The TK-150 is no exception: armed with a 33-pound warhead, it is effectively a smart, electrically powered torpedo which can loiter for days at a time waiting for a target. It has a range of 60 miles.

The TLK-150 semi-submersible was the first in the Toloka series

The TLK-150 is not a true submarine, as it relies on a mast above water for sensing and communication. However, with the body submerged it is much harder to spot than the high-speed drone attack boats which Ukraine has used so effectively. It is questionable how much damage the small warhead would do, even below the waterline, but this looks like a first experimental effort at weaponizing UUVs. Bigger and better designs were soon to follow.

Monsters Of The Deep

In 2024, the makers were talking about an entire family of underwater drones. The TLK 150 was joined by the TLK 400 and TLK 1000; in each case, the suffix appears to indicate the diameter of the vessel in centimeters.

By this time the TLK 150 had been upgraded with a warhead of 45 – 110 pounds of explosives, as much as a U.S. Mk. 54 lightweight torpedo. No details have been shared of combat missions.

The Toloka 400 is around forty feet long and has a hybrid propulsion system giving it a range of around 800 miles and an endurance of two months. A true submarine, the TLK 400 can operate at depths of up to 1,000 feet. Typical missions include reconnaissance, minelaying, communications relay, and of course direct attack. The TLK 400 can carry a 1,000-pound warhead, making it more powerful than the U.S. Mk48 heavyweight torpedo.

At the top end of the range is the TK 1000, which looks like a scaled-up TK 400 with a payload of five tons, and which was shown at Lviv for the first time. Typical missions are given as “destruction of large stationary targets” as well as laying mines. Its endurance and range are similar to the smaller version. This was seen for the first time in Lviv.

The makers say their UUVs are highly autonomous, with neural-network based AI for sensing and navigation. This is a complex field and no details have been given or testing or limitations, but if the UUVs are simply going to a spot and laying a mine or detonating they may not need to be too sophisticated.

Naval mines are much underrated weapons. They lack the glamor of aircraft and missiles, but they are extremely effective. In WWII, U.S. mining sunk more than a thousand enemy vessels, with no submarines or ships lost while mining. Mine countermeasures take up a significant amount of naval effort, and the presence of mines will hamper and delay operations even when they cause no damage. But it will be those stationary targets that Putin will be worrying about.

Destroying Bridges And More

The Kerch Bridge which links Russia with occupied Crimea is a major strategic and symbolic target. Ukraine has attacked it before. In October 2022 a truck bomb detonated on the bridge, damaging three spans; repairs were completed in May 2023. In August 2023 a robot boat ran into one of the bridge supports with over 1,700 pounds of explosions but failed to bring it down. This June an underwater explosion, this time over 2,200 pounds of explosives again failed to bring down a support.

The TK 1000, able to bring a charge almost five times as big, might finally be the bridge dropper that Ukraine needs. Russia has deployed a wide range of defensive measures both above and below the water and would hope to detect and counter an attack. But the fact that previous efforts got through suggests that another effort might succeed.

There are other targets too, not just bridges but platforms in the Black Sea, originally built for oil and gas but now used as radar and air defence bases. The Russian fleet is now largely confined to port, sheltering behind booms and other defenses to keep the robots boats out. A big enough explosive charge could be covertly placed to blast a way through for an attack either over or under the water. It could also act as a carrier for squadrons of FPVs or other aerial drones.

As with aerial drones, robot submarines have tended to be elbowed aside by crewed platforms. That may change soon. And while many nations are developing giant XLUUVs at varying rates -- including the U.S., U.K, Australia, China, France, Israel –– these are generally sophisticated, expensive, exquisite systems. Ukraine, which sees drones more as low-cost expendable units, may lead the world in a new type of underwater warfare.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, September 25, 2025 10:25 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) carried out a strike with naval drones on ports in Novorossiysk and Tuapse on Sept. 24, sources in the Ukrainian special service told NV.

According to the sources, the operation disrupted operations at Transneft’s oil terminal and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal near Novorossiysk. These facilities are used to load Russian tankers, including vessels from Moscow’s so-called shadow fleet.

Together, the facilities have the capacity to export up to 2 million barrels of oil per day.

The sources said HUR’s naval drones also blew up an oil pier at one of Russia’s largest terminals in Tuapse.

They added that chaotic and inaccurate fire from Russian forces during the attack destroyed several residential buildings and cars.

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/ukrainian-drones-hit-russian-oil-ter
minals-in-novorossiysk-and-tuapse-50547902.html

Novorossiysk and Tuapse https://maps.app.goo.gl/mj6tkoTh5ThUpyXw9

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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