Russia Invades Ukraine. Again by captaincrunch

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Wednesday, July 23, 2025 15:21
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Tuesday, July 22, 2025 6:35 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

European fuckheads in the political class deserve to be shot for their sheer stupidity and corruption.

Comparing Russia’s Life Expectancy and GDP per capita with the EU indicates Russian leaders should be shot before EU leaders:

1) Overall Life Expectancy: As of 2023, EU life expectancy at birth was around 81.5 years, while Russia's life expectancy in 2021 was 70.06 years.

https://www.google.com/search?q=compare+life+expectancy+between+Russia
+and+EU

2) The EU's GDP per capita is significantly higher than Russia's, with FRED Blog stating Russia's GDP per capita being about two-thirds smaller than the EU's in 2020. While Russia's nominal GDP per capita for 2025 is projected at $14,260, and PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) GDP per capita is $49,380, the EU's nominal GDP per capita for 2025 is estimated at $44,387, and its PPP GDP per capita is projected at $64,545. The EU also has a substantially larger overall GDP than Russia.

https://www.google.com/search?q=compare+gdp+per+capita+between+Russia+
and+EU

3) Signym, since Russia is hiding recent data, the comparison with the EU has gotten worse:

No births, no deaths, no data
Russia is pulling demographic stats from public view. What’s the Kremlin trying to hide?
July 14, 2025

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/07/14/no-births-no-deaths-no-data

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, July 23, 2025 3:58 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Yep. Pre- 2000 leadership was really fucked up. But look at the progress Russia's made since then.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

"Constant monitoring of behavior, emotion, and identity breeds conformity, judgment, and fear."

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Wednesday, July 23, 2025 6:34 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Ukraine’s military death tolls underestimated, Russia recruits sufficient to cover its frontline losses

By Ben Aris in Berlin | July 22, 2025

https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-military-death-tolls-underestima
ted-russia-recruits-sufficient-to-cover-its-frontline-losses-392172/

Ukraine’s official military casualty figures in the war with Russia may be vastly understated, according to a report published by the French newspaper Le Monde on Monday. Russia’s death toll is much higher, but official figures show the Kremlin’s voluntary recruitment drive is replenishing the ranks faster than its soldiers are being killed.

Death tolls in the four-year old war are state secrets on both sides of the conflict and analysts have been reduced to using proxies to estimate the true toll and official estimates from Defence Ministries are almost certainly massaged up or down. However, even these estimates are stark.

Since the start of the conflict over three years ago a total of 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and another 380,000 wounded, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told CBS News in February.

“The real death toll is likely much higher,” Le Monde reported based on Ukraine’s efforts to build military cemeteries. The state has two new national military memorial projects under construction in Kyiv and Lviv, as graveyards for fallen Ukrainian soldiers are nearing capacity. “Construction projects rising across Ukraine say more about the scale of the slaughter than statistics ever could,” Le Monde said, in comments widely shared in Russian media.

Ukraine’s manpower shortage

While the actual numbers remain cloaked in confusion, it is very clear that Ukraine is suffering from an acute manpower shortage, while Russia is not. No men aged 18 to 60 have been allowed to leave the country since February 2022 without special permission.

Russian President Vladimir Putin resorted to a partial mobilisation in September 2022 in the first year of the war, when the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) faced a temporary manpower shortage. The Kremlin has avoided a general mobilisation at all costs, aware that it could cause a major revolt. And the costs have been high; the Kremlin has been paying out an entire year’s salary or more as signed up fees for voluntary recruits, which takes up a third of the military budget by itself.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was forced to order a general mobilisation almost as soon as the war started. Now anger and resentment is rising at the aggressive press-ganging of military-age men into the army – a process known as ‘busification’. Ukraine’s social media is filled with videos of men being snatched from the street and bundled into minivans by recruitment officers, sometimes at gunpoint.

Those forced to fight are fleeing their positions in record numbers. Desertions from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is rampant. In the first six months of this year, Ukraine’s Prosecutor’s Office reported that it had opened 107,672 new criminal cases for desertion. Since 2022 some 230,804 such criminal cases have been instigated, suggesting that more soldiers have deserted the Ukrainian army than there are fighting men in today’s British, French and German armies combined, The Spectator reports.

And there is no respite for the members of the AFU. While Russia has sufficient men to be able to rotate them in and out of combat, Ukrainian soldiers serve continuously and are exhausted. A draft law proposed last year releasing military personnel from service after 36 months was squashed by the government for fear exacerbating the labour shortage. Small protests are regularly held by the families of soldiers calling not for the release of their men, but simply to give them a break from the front line occasionally.

Another new law making it possible for men aged 18-26, that are not subject to conscription, to volunteer for military service managed to attract a total of 500 recruits.

Russia fewer deaths, faster recruitment

The numbers of reported Russian dead from the war are clearly higher, but they also don’t add up. Ukraine’s supporters report the Russian death toll practically every day, usually citing the official estimates released by Ukraine’s Defence Ministry, as part of its media campaign to denigrate the AFR and boost support for Ukraine. Currently the numbers coming from the “meat grinder” that is the battle for Donbas sees at least a 1,000 Russian soldiers die a day according to these estimates.

However, other sober estimate put the number far lower. A verified list of dead Russian soldiers maintained by Mediazona and the BBC already exceeds 115,000 -- about 5,000 names are added each month, or 161 deaths per day from the whole of Ukraine, not 1,000.

The actual number of deaths is widely estimated at roughly double the Mediazona estimates, or around 300 dead a day. Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), for example, puts Russian fatalities at 250,000, the Moscow Times reports. However, due to the incomplete access to information, the real number could be far higher.

Nevertheless, these estimates are still a third of what the Ukrainian Defence Ministry is reporting, and they are low enough to allow Russia to sustain its fight indefinitely as it can replace all the casualties with fresh recruits.

Typically, three times more soldiers on the offensive die than those on the defensive, However, what few numbers have come out on the daily death toll of the AFU are roughly on the same order as the estimate of Russian deaths – and with its smaller population even if fewer Ukrainians are dying than Russians, it can still lose the war by running out of men before Russia does.

While the AFU has the drone advantage, Russia maintains an overwhelming artillery, missile and heavy glide bombs advantage, powerful weapons that can completely destroy Ukraine’s defensive positions.

Much clearer is the information on Putin’s ability to replenish his manpower by recruiting fresh volunteers to fight for Russia.

“Some analysts — including myself — recently thought Putin would be unable to find enough conscripts to cover losses this year and that by late 2025, forcing him to choose between a forced draft and a ceasefire,” said Sergei Shelin in an opinion piece in the Moscow Times. “Unfortunately, the data paints a different picture.”

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed Russia suffered 32,000 irreversible losses in June alone (100 deaths a day), but official Russian figures suggested Russia added 190,000 volunteer and contract soldiers in the first five months of 2025, or 38,000 per month (1,225 per day). Russia is recruiting more soldiers a month than it is losing on the frontline, even if you believe Syrskyi’s probably inflated number. Monthly inflows exceed losses by roughly 10,000, according to Shelin.

Putin says about 700,000 Russians are currently fighting in Ukraine. His goal is to increase the number of active servicemen to 1.5mn largely through volunteers that draw heavily on Russia’s poorest regions, while the AFU is forced to resort to conscription of the dwindling pool of men left in the country. Russia’s population is at least four-times bigger than that of Ukraine’s, and that calculation is before you count out the roughly six million men that have already fled the country after the war started.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, July 23, 2025 7:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Russian authorities recently detained Bryansk Oblast Vice Governor Nikolai Simonenko and former Belgorod Oblast Vice Governor Rustem Zainullin, likely as part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to scapegoat local officials for larger Russian border security failures following Ukraine's August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion. Russian law enforcement officials told Kremlin newswire TASS on July 22 that Russian authorities detained Simonenko on abuse of power charges and searched Simonenko’s home and workplace as part of a larger criminal case investigating the embezzlement of funds allocated for the construction of defensive fortifications in Bryansk Oblast border areas.[19] Russian authorities similarly detained Zainullin for fraud on June 21 on suspicion of embezzling 32 million rubles (roughly $408,000) in funds allocated to constructing defensive fortifications in the Belgorod Oblast border area.[20] Russian authorities previously detained former Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov on similar embezzlement charges in what ISW assessed to be a concerted Kremlin effort to use Kursk Oblast officials as scapegoats for Russia’s failure to repel the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.[21] Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably dismissed Russian Minister of Transport and former Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit on July 7 just prior to Starovoit’s reported suicide.[22]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-july-22-2025

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, July 23, 2025 3:21 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Ukraine’s military death tolls underestimated, Russia recruits sufficient to cover its frontline losses

By Ben Aris in Berlin | July 22, 2025

https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-military-death-tolls-underestima
ted-russia-recruits-sufficient-to-cover-its-frontline-losses-392172/

Since the start of the conflict over three years ago a total of 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed

I hope you see now why we shouldn't believe "reports" out of Kiev, and their slavish quotes in western "intelligence" agencies

Quote:
and another 380,000 wounded, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told CBS News in February.

“The real death toll is likely much higher,”

Yeah, no shit. Why aren't any western "news" agencies attempting to estimate Kiev's dead, like Mediazona is doing with Russia's?

Quote:

Russia fewer deaths, faster recruitment

The numbers of reported

By Kiev. Until about six month ago, our policy was to make "our" intelligence estimates to match Kiev's. Talk about delusion by policy!

Quote:
Russian dead from the war are clearly higher [than what?], but they also don’t add up. Ukraine’s supporters report the Russian death toll practically every day, usually citing the [Kiev's] official estimates released by Ukraine’s Defence Ministry, as part of its media campaign to denigrate the AFR and boost support for Ukraine. Currently the numbers coming from the “meat grinder” that is the battle for Donbas sees at least a 1,000 Russian soldiers die a day according to these estimates.

However, other sober estimate put the number far lower. A verified list of dead Russian soldiers maintained by Mediazona and the BBC already exceeds 115,000 -- about 5,000 names are added each month, or 161 deaths per day from the whole of Ukraine, not 1,000.

The actual number of deaths is widely estimated at roughly double the Mediazona estimates, or around 300 dead a day. Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), for example, puts Russian fatalities at 250,000, the Moscow Times

Moscow Times isn't even in Moscow

Quote:
reports. However, due to the incomplete access to information, the real number could be far higher.

Or lower.

According to Mediazona/ BBC, despite the fact that Russians are on the offensive, the LONG term trend of Russian deaths in going LOWER. That's despite the fact that Mediazona is now including probate proceedings.

There's always a lag so discount the last three months, but the trend is unmistakable.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

"Constant monitoring of behavior, emotion, and identity breeds conformity, judgment, and fear."

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