REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The Unemployment Rate Facts

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Thursday, March 12, 2020 20:37
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Friday, June 7, 2019 4:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report data:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-1

Jan 2002 is listed twice. First with original report data from February 2002. Second with revised data from new Census data, published in February 2003.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BLS currently defines the Want A Job category as not being part of the Labor Force.

So I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.


Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6
Jan98 07069 05.2% 5026 3.7% 12095 08.9% 4090 3.0% 16185 11.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 04.8% 4800 3.5% 11404 08.3% 3645 2.6% 15049 10.9% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 04.5% 4354 3.1% 10670 07.6% 3355 2.4% 14025 10.0% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 04.7% 4474 3.2% 11121 07.9% 3559 2.5% 14680 10.4% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 06.3% 4872 3.5% 13807 09.8% 4249 3.0% 18056 12.8% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 06.3% 4938 3.4% 13989 09.8% 4453 3.1% 18442 12.9% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 06.5% 4779 3.3% 14174 09.8% 5003 3.4% 19177 13.2% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 06.3% 4913 3.4% 14057 09.6% 5152 3.5% 19209 13.2% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 05.7% 5136 3.5% 13580 09.2% 4793 3.3% 18373 12.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 05.1% 5095 3.4% 12703 08.5% 4513 3.0% 17216 11.5% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 05.0% 4633 3.0% 12282 08.1% 4620 3.0% 16902 11.1% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 05.4% 4977 3.2% 13198 08.6% 5235 3.5% 18433 12.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 08.5% 5866 3.8% 18875 12.3% 8675 5.7% 27550 18.0% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 10.6% 6108 4.0% 22255 14.6% 9161 5.9% 31416 20.5% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 09.8% 6643 4.3% 21580 14.1% 9027 6.0% 30607 20.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 08.8% 6495 4.3% 20036 13.1% 8747 5.7% 28783 18.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 08.5% 6781 4.4% 19962 12.9% 8506 5.5% 28468 18.4% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 07.0% 6508 4.2% 17363 11.2% 7617 5.0% 24980 16.2% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 06.1% 6467 4.1% 15965 10.2% 7125 4.6% 23090 14.8% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 05.3% 6166 3.9% 14475 09.2% 6234 4.0% 20709 13.2% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 05.1% 5934 3.8% 14083 08.9% 6127 3.8% 20210 12.7% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 04.4% 5152 3.2% 12243 07.6% 5241 3.2% 17484 10.8% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 04.1% 4793 3.0% 11464 07.1% 4975 3.1% 16439 10.2% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 03.7% 5010 3.1% 10942 06.8% 4631 2.9% 15573 09.7% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
May18 05657 03.6% 5696 3.5% 11353 07.0% 4677 2.9% 16030 09.9% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 04.2% 5654 3.5% 12466 07.6% 4974 3.0% 17440 10.7% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 04.1% 5483 3.3% 12213 07.5% 4701 2.9% 16914 10.3% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 03.9% 5534 3.4% 11904 07.3% 4263 2.6% 16167 09.9% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 03.6% 5070 3.1% 10836 06.7% 4238 2.6% 15074 09.3% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 03.5% 5048 3.1% 10819 06.6% 4169 2.6% 14988 09.2% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nov18 05650 03.5% 5060 3.1% 10710 06.6% 4512 2.8% 15222 09.4% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 03.7% 5121 3.1% 11150 06.8% 4621 2.8% 15771 09.6% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 04.1% 5196 3.2% 11821 07.3% 4477 2.8% 16298 10.0% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 03.9% 4887 3.0% 11269 06.9% 4548 2.8% 15817 09.7% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 03.3% 4951 3.1% 10338 06.4% 4424 2.7% 14762 09.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 03.4% 5500 3.4% 11003 06.8% 4070 2.5% 15073 09.3% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7


Jul12 13400 08.6% 6837 4.3% 20237 12.9% 8218 5.3% 28455 18.2% 243354 156526 64.3 15.2
Aug12 12696 08.2% 7631 4.9% 20327 13.1% 7723 5.0% 28050 18.1% 243566 155255 63.7 14.6
Sep12 11742 07.6% 6427 4.1% 18169 11.7% 8003 5.2% 26172 16.9% 243772 155075 63.6 14.2
Oct12 11741 07.5% 6142 4.0% 17883 11.5% 7768 5.0% 25651 16.5% 243983 155779 63.8 13.9
Nov12 11404 07.4% 6495 4.2% 17899 11.6% 7898 5.0% 25797 16.6% 244174 154953 63.5 13.9
Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.


Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.

Well, it looks like the current U6 right now is lower than every January of the past 24 years, since the creation of U-6, according to BLS figures.

From 2009 to 2017, the Civilian noninstitutional Population grew by 19.343 Million. With a nominal post-9/11 Labor Participation Rate of 66%, the Labor Force would have grown by 12.766 Million. But Obama's Deep State reported that the Labor Force only grew by 5.231 Million. Labor Force is defined as all Employed + all Unemployed. So Obama would have you believe that during his 8 years, 7.5 Million extra Employ-eligible population were NOT unemployed (nor employed).



Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.


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Friday, June 7, 2019 4:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report to this Table of Data, which seems to best show the components of U6:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-2

Note: this year the Marginally Attached data is in Table A-16 of the report.
Quote:

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. For example, the current Rate of 4.1% (for 4 months straight) is SeasAdj, and the real Rate is 4.5% for Jan 2018. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category. The 5th column is the sum of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached - which more accurately represents the Actual Unemployed. The 6th column is the Rate for column 5 figure.
The 7th column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 8th column is the Rate for column 7. The 9th column is the sum of the 5th column plus 7th column. 10th column is the Rate for column 9 figure. The Rates in columns 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 11th column is the Civilian Population. 12th column is Labor Force, 13th column is Participation Rate. 14th column is the published U-6 figure.


Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem Pct MrgAt Pct SbTtl Pcnt InvPT Pct Total Prcnt CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%
Ja93 09911 07.9 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 6181 4.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 4963 3.8 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0
Ja95 08101 06.2 1783 1.4 09884 07.6 4620 3.5 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1
Ja96 08270 06.3 1737 1.3 10007 07.6 4103 3.1 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Ja97 07933 05.9 1615 1.2 09548 07.1 4338 3.2 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Ja98 07069 05.2 1479 1.1 08548 06.3 4090 3.0 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Ja99 06604 04.8 1358 1.0 07962 05.8 3645 2.6 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Ja00 06316 04.5 1197 0.9 07513 05.4 3355 2.4 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Ja01 06647 04.7 1290 0.9 07937 05.6 3559 2.5 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Ja02 08935 06.3 1509 1.1 10444 07.4 4249 3.0 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Ja02 09051 06.3 1532 1.1 10583 07.4 4453 3.1 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Ja03 09395 06.5 1598 1.1 10993 07.6 5003 3.4 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Ja04 09144 06.3 1670 1.1 10814 07.4 5152 3.5 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Ja05 08444 05.7 1804 1.2 10248 07.0 4793 3.3 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Ja06 07608 05.1 1644 1.1 09252 06.2 4513 3.0 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Ja07 07649 05.0 1577 1.0 09226 06.1 4620 3.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Ja08 08221 05.4 1729 1.1 09950 06.5 5235 3.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Ja09 13009 08.5 2130 1.4 15139 09.9 8675 5.6 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Ja10 16147 10.6 2539 1.6 18686 12.2 9161 6.0 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Ja11 14937 09.8 2800 1.8 17737 11.6 9027 5.9 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Ja12 13541 08.8 2809 1.9 16350 10.7 8747 5.7 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Ja13 13181 08.5 2443 1.6 15624 10.1 8506 5.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Ja14 10855 07.0 2592 1.7 13447 08.7 7617 4.9 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Ja15 09498 06.1 2234 1.4 11732 07.5 7125 4.6 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Ja16 08309 05.3 2089 1.3 10398 06.6 6234 4.0 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Ja17 08149 05.1 1752 1.1 09901 06.2 6127 3.9 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Fb18 07091 04.4 1602 1.0 08693 05.4 5241 3.2 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mr18 06671 04.1 1454 0.9 08125 05.0 4975 3.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Ap18 05932 03.7 1362 0.8 07294 04.5 4631 2.9 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My18 05657 03.6 1455 0.9 07112 04.4 4677 2.9 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jn18 06812 04.2 1437 0.9 08249 05.1 4974 3.0 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
J l 18 06730 04.1 1498 0.9 08228 05.0 4701 2.9 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Au18 06370 03.9 1443 0.9 07813 04.8 4263 2.6 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Se18 05766 03.6 1577 1.0 07343 04.5 4238 2.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oc18 05771 03.5 1491 0.9 07262 04.5 4169 2.6 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nv18 05650 03.5 1678 1.0 07328 04.5 4512 2.8 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dc18 06029 03.7 1556 0.9 07585 04.6 4621 2.8 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Fe19 06625 04.1 1424 0.9 08049 04.9 4477 2.8 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mr19 06382 03.9 1357 0.8 07739 04.8 4548 2.8 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Ap19 05387 03.3 1417 0.9 06804 04.2 4424 2.7 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
My19 05503 03.4 1395 0.9 06898 04.2 4070 2.5 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7


J l 12 13400 08.6 2529 1.6 15929 10.2 8218 5.2 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 2561 1.6 15257 09.8 7723 5.0 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 2517 1.6 14259 09.2 8003 5.2 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 2433 1.6 14174 09.1 7768 5.0 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 2505 1.6 13909 09.0 7898 5.1 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure. It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
By 2016 the Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time counts were more than the Fake Unemployment count.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.
For March 2019, the Marginally Attached raw count is the lowest since Jan 2001, and the percentage of 0.8 is the lowest on the table.
Comparing to March 2018, the U-3 is 0.2% less, the Marginally Attached is 0.1% less, the Involuntary Part-Time is 0.3% less, and the U-6 is 0.6% less.
Most of the time, the April U-6 drops about 0.8%, so next month we'll likely see record low numbers across the board.



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Friday, June 7, 2019 4:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which includes Not Fully Employed Rate.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-3

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the Unemployed.
The 2nd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category.
The 3rd column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 4th column of numbers is the sum of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd columns. 5th column is the Rate for column 4 figure, divided by Labor Force.

The 6th column of numbers is the Subtotal of columns 1 and 3, Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time.
The 7th column is Labor Force minus column 6. This is also Employed minus column 3 Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 8th column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 9th column is the Civilian Population. 10th column is Labor Force, 11th column is Participation Rate. 12th column is the published U-6 figure.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%
Jan94 09492 2120 4963 16575 12.8 14455 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0
Jan95 08101 1783 4620 14504 11.1 12721 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1
Jan96 08270 1737 4103 14110 10.7 12373 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Jan97 07933 1615 4338 13886 10.3 12271 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Jan98 07069 1479 4090 12638 09.3 11159 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 1358 3645 11607 08.4 10249 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 1197 3355 10868 07.8 09671 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 1290 3559 11496 08.2 10206 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 1509 4249 14693 10.4 13184 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 1532 4453 15036 10.5 13504 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 1598 5003 15996 11.0 14398 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 1670 5152 15966 10.9 14296 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 1804 4793 15041 10.2 13237 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 1644 4513 13765 09.2 12122 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 1577 4620 13846 09.1 12269 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 1729 5235 15185 09.9 13456 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 2130 8675 23814 15.5 21684 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 2539 9161 27847 18.2 25308 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 2800 9027 26764 17.5 23964 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 2809 8747 25097 16.4 22288 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 2443 8506 24130 15.6 21687 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 2592 7617 21064 13.6 18472 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 2234 7125 18857 12.1 16623 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 2089 6234 16632 10.6 14543 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Feb17 07887 1723 5700 15310 09.6 13587 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7 09.5
Mar17 07289 1595 5498 14381 09.0 12787 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9 08.9
Apr17 06555 1534 4990 13079 08.2 11545 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8 08.1
My 17 06572 1475 4994 13041 08.2 11566 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8 08.1
Jun17 07250 1582 5555 14387 08.9 12805 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3 08.9
Jul17 07441 1629 5430 14500 09.0 12871 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5 08.9
Aug17 07287 1548 5130 13965 08.7 12417 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0 08.6
Sep17 06556 1569 4740 12865 08.0 11296 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0 08.0
Oct17 06242 1535 4496 12273 07.6 10738 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7 07.6
Nov17 06286 1481 4554 12321 07.7 10840 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7 07.7
Dec17 06278 1623 4992 12893 08.1 11270 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4 08.0

Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 1602 5241 13934 08.6 12332 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 1454 4975 13100 08.1 11646 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 1362 4631 11925 07.4 10563 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My 18 05657 1455 4677 11789 07.3 10334 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 1437 4974 13223 08.1 11786 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 1498 4701 12929 07.9 11431 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 1443 4263 12076 07.4 10633 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 1577 4238 11581 07.2 10004 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 1491 4169 11431 07.0 09940 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0

Nov18 05650 1678 4512 11840 07.3 10162 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 1556 4621 12206 07.4 10650 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 1424 4477 12526 07.7 11102 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 1357 4548 12287 07.5 10930 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 1417 4424 11228 06.9 09811 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 1395 4070 10968 06.7 09573 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%

Jul12 13400 2529 8218 24147 15.4 21618 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3
Aug12 12696 2561 7723 22980 14.8 20419 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7
Sep12 11742 2517 8003 22262 14.4 19745 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6
Oct12 11741 2433 7768 21942 14.1 19509 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8
Nov12 11404 2505 7898 21807 14.1 19302 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.


The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 8th column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working, and compare to other periods since U-6 was created. These 2 figures help show how the Labor Force Participation Rate and U-6 realistically work together.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

One comparison of note for July 2018: in the past 2 months (since schools were in session), the Labor Force has increased by almost 2 million, but the sums of Unemployed and Involuntary Part-time have only increased 1.1 million. This means that about 900,000 of fresh schooling products have been absorbed by the demand from employers, in only 2 months.
For February 2019, not much spectacular is shown. Mostly a return of most figures to the trends present in the December figures, which were prior to the Pelosi Shutdown of Government.
Of some interest is that this indicates that the January U-6 figure without the Pelosi Shutdown would have been about 8.0%. Since I had chosen to use January as the annual snapshot representation of all the years, this leaves this one year a blip out of context. All other Januarys have similar situations and templates, and 2019 has no similar comparison.
This 8.0% realistic comparison figure would have been the 2nd best on the table, behind 7.8% in 2000.
One thing I had not continued to noticed before. After Obamanomics was able to get the total of Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time higher than the U-3 Unemployment Rate by Jan 2016, Trump was able to keep that balance reversed until Oct 2018, except for Dec 2017. The U-3 is the larger, more stable and consistent of all the subcomponents of the U-6, and the other 2 are just bloated from Obamanomics.
Following the 2018 Midterm Elections, this balanced switched again for Nov, Dec, Jan. But now for Feb and March, the balance is restored and the subtotal is lower than the Unemployment Rate.

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Friday, June 7, 2019 4:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, where I included the Margin of Gain for Labor Force, and Margin of Gain for Actually Fully Employed:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-4

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed.
The 2nd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category.
The 3rd column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT.
The 4th column is the sum of the first 3 columns. 5th column is the Rate for column 4 figure, with Labor Force as the denominator.
The 6th column of numbers is the Subtotal of columns 1 and 3, Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time.
The 7th column is Labor Force minus column 6. This is also Employed minus column 3 Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.
Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 8th column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.
The 9th column is the Civilian Population. 10th column is Labor Force, 11th column is Participation Rate.
The 12th column is Marginal Labor Force Rate. This percent is the gain of the Labor Force divided by the gain of the Civilian noninstitutional Population.
The 13th column is the Marginal Actual Fully Employed Rate. This percent is the gain in the Actual Fully Employed divided by the gain of the Civilian noninstitutional Population.

Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% MrgLF MrgAcE
Ja94 09492 2120 4963 16575 12.8 14455 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0 +101.5
Ja95 08101 1783 4620 14504 11.1 12721 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1 +072.5 +165.8
Ja96 08270 1737 4103 14110 10.7 12373 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8 +037.1 +058.5
Ja97 07933 1615 4338 13886 10.3 12271 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4 +110.2 +114.1
Ja98 07069 1479 4090 12638 09.3 11159 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6 +083.7 +140.9
Ja99 06604 1358 3645 11607 08.4 10249 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7 +080.3 +116.7
Ja00 06316 1197 3355 10868 07.8 09671 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9 +081.3 +109.4
Ja01 06647 1290 3559 11496 08.2 10206 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9 +067.8 +042.4
Ja02 08935 1509 4249 14693 10.4 13184 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2 +001.1 -134.2

Ja02 09051 1532 4453 15036 10.5 13504 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2 +038.8 -019.9
Ja03 09395 1598 5003 15996 11.0 14398 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1 +061.1 +034.8
Ja04 09144 1670 5152 15966 10.9 14296 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7 +033.9 +038.4
Ja05 08444 1804 4793 15041 10.2 13237 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4 +039.5 +079.1
Ja06 07608 1644 4513 13765 09.2 12122 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5 +072.3 +113.8
Ja07 07649 1577 4620 13846 09.1 12269 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9 +091.5 +086.4
Ja08 08221 1729 5235 15185 09.9 13456 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7 +046.0 -014.4
Ja09 13009 2130 8675 23814 15.5 21684 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4 +029.1 -358.5
Ja10 16147 2539 9161 27847 18.2 25308 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6 -023.3 -196.5
Ja11 14937 2800 9027 26764 17.5 23964 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9 -022.5 +049.3
Ja12 13541 2809 8747 25097 16.4 22288 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4 +026.6 +073.6
Ja13 13181 2443 8506 24130 15.6 21687 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3 +054.7 +079.8
Ja14 10855 2592 7617 21064 13.6 18472 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5 -018.3 +124.4
Ja15 09498 2234 7125 18857 12.1 16623 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5 +059.4 +125.3
Ja16 08309 2089 6234 16632 10.6 14543 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3 +055.8 +145.6
Ja17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 +078.9 +094.7
Ja18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 +050.4 +113.7
Ja19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 160104 62.8 +004.6 +133.9


Ja18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3
Fb18 07091 1602 5241 13934 08.6 12332 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9 +946.1 1100.0
Mr18 06671 1454 4975 13100 08.1 11646 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8 +033.1 +454.0
Ap18 05932 1362 4631 11925 07.4 10563 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7 -153.1 +456.7
My18 05657 1455 4677 11789 07.3 10334 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8 +266.5 +243.4
Jn18 06812 1437 4974 13223 08.1 11786 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4 +804.3 +031.9
Jl18 06730 1498 4701 12929 07.9 11431 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5 +404.0 +212.4
Au18 06370 1443 4263 12076 07.4 10633 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7 -818.4 -460.5
Se18 05766 1577 4238 11581 07.2 10004 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7 +021.9 +302.7
Oc18 05771 1491 4169 11431 07.0 09940 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9 +341.5 +370.1
Nv18 05650 1678 4512 11840 07.3 10162 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9 -029.9 -144.3
Dc18 06029 1556 4621 12206 07.4 10650 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8 -086.1 -357.2

Ja19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8
Fe19 06625 1424 4477 12526 07.7 11102 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0 +450.3 1483.7
Mr19 06382 1357 4548 12287 07.5 10930 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0 +020.7 +139.3
Ap19 05387 1417 4424 11228 06.9 09811 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7 -390.3 +211.3
My19 05503 1395 4070 10968 06.7 09573 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8 +332.1 +475.0



Jl12 13400 2529 8218 24147 15.4 21618 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3
Ag12 12696 2561 7723 22980 14.8 20419 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7 -598.6 -034.0
Se12 11742 2517 8003 22262 14.4 19745 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6 -087.4 +239.8
Oc12 11741 2433 7768 21942 14.1 19509 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8 +333.6 +445.5
No12 11404 2505 7898 21807 14.1 19302 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5 -432.5 -324.1


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.
This color highlights Actually Employed figures which have not recovered from a prior high count.
This color highlights growth of Civilian noninstitutional Population over 3 Million, 18 years after relevant births.


Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.

For February 2019 the surge in the Marginal Actual Fully Employed Rate is likely mostly due to the return to work following the end of the Pelosi Shutdown of Government, and partly due to the Census adjustment of Civilian noninstitutional Population - the denominator.

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Friday, June 7, 2019 4:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



The shadowstats site is lean on actual data, requiring a subscription to access what it claims as database.
However, I will make attempt to add in some of the data it presents. This does make assumption that their methodology and counting methods are valid, which I cannot find clear information about.
There also may be comingling of Seasonally Adjusted figures from shadowstats without clarity, but this will be the only series of Tables I post which veer from Not Seasonally Adjusted figures.

The charts they present do show that Unemployment under Trump is better than any time under Obamanomics, so it may be a worthwhile endeavor to investigate.




I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-5


I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.


The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is the sum of the Unemployed plus Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-time. 4th column is the Rate for column 3 figure. The Rates in columns 2 and 4 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 5th column is the Civilian Population. 6th column is Labor Force, 7th column is Participation Rate. 8th column is the published U-6 figure.
The 9th column is the Real Unemployment figure, as presented by shadowstats. The 10th column is the underreported, the difference between the U-6 figure from BLS and the Real figure from shadowstats.

Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6% Real Separation
Ja93 09911 07.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0 12% 15.3% 2.3%
Ja95 08101 06.2 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1 10% 13.5% 3.5%
Ja96 08270 06.3 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8% 13.5% 2.7%
Ja97 07933 05.9 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4% 13% 2.6%
Ja98 07069 05.2 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3% 12% 2.7%
Ja99 06604 04.8 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5% 11.5% 3.0%
Ja00 06316 04.5 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8% 11% 3.2%
Ja01 06647 04.7 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1% 10.5% 2.4%
Ja02 08935 06.3 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%

Ja02 09051 06.3 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%
Ja03 09395 06.5 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0% 13% 2.0%
Ja04 09144 06.3 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9% 14% 3.1%
Ja05 08444 05.7 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2% 13% 2.8%
Ja06 07608 05.1 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2% 12% 2.8%
Ja07 07649 05.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1% 12% 2.9%
Ja08 08221 05.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9% 13% 3.1%
Ja09 13009 08.5 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4% 20% 4.6%
Ja10 16147 10.6 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0% 22% 4.0%
Ja11 14937 09.8 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3% 22.5% 5.2%
Ja12 13541 08.8 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2% 22.5% 6.3%
Ja13 13181 08.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4% 23% 7.6%
Ja14 10855 07.0 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5% 23.5% 10%
Ja15 09498 06.1 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0% 23.5% 11.5%
Ja16 08309 05.3 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5% 23% 12.5%
Ja17 08149 05.1 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1% 23% 12.9%
Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%


Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Fb18 07091 04.4 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6% 21.9% 13.3%
Mr18 06671 04.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1% 21.8% 13.7%
Ap18 05932 03.7 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4% 21.5% 14.1%
My18 05657 03.6 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3% 21.4% 14.1%
Jn18 06812 04.2 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1% 21.5% 13.4%
J l 18 06730 04.1 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9% 21.3% 13.4%
Au18 06370 03.9 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4% 21.2% 13.8%
Se18 05766 03.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1% 21.3% 14.2%
Oc18 05771 03.5 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0% 21.2% 14.2%
Nv18 05650 03.5 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2% 21.4% 14.2%
Dc18 06029 03.7 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5% 21.4% 13.9%

Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%
Fe19 06625 04.1 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7% 21.1% 13.4%
Mr19 06382 03.9 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5% 21.2% 13.7%
Ap19 05387 03.3 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9% 21.2% 14.3%
My19 05503 03.4 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7% 21.1% 14.4%


J l 12 13400 08.6 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

A key factor that shadowstats points out is that the feeder category, the category which generates the discrepancy between BLS Fiction and reality, is the Marginally Attached. When Obamanomics doubled this figure, it was able to permanently exclude these Unemployed from the stats for the remainder of the Obamanomics Stagnation Extended Recession.
It was much more difficult for Obama to expell his victims from the BLS rolls around 2011 when Unemployment was so bad there were Extended Benefits, (so applicants were required to document work searches before getting Unemployment Insurance Payments) - and this part of the Work Force could not be deleted from the Labor Force until they stopped documenting their search for work.


The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure since the Redefining of 1994 (which shadowstats states was to cover up the Losses of Employment from NAFTA). It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.


The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
The Shadowstats figure for Jan 2019 shows the difference (bloat) is less than the prior Jan figure, for the first time since 2010.
So I assume this would mean that the bloat of Long-term Unemployed is being chipped away by Trump. Either by re-employment or transition to Retirement age, or both.
But this extra 9% of the Population that Obamanomics forced to Unemployment can now be whittled away and not expanded by default, only by actions such as the 2018 Elections.



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Friday, June 7, 2019 4:37 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which breaks down the numerical changes in the key figures.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-6

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.


The 1st column is Labor Force minus both Unemployed and Involuntary Part-Time. This is also Employed minus Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 2nd column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 3rd column is the Civilian Population. 4th column is Labor Force, 5th column is Participation Rate.

After the separation bar, the 7th column is the Increase in Civilian Population from the previous entry. For the entries by year, this is the 12 month Increase. For the entries broken down by month, this is the 1 month Increase.
The 8th column is the Increase in Labor Force from the previous entry.
The 9th column is the Increase in Actually Fully Employed count, from the previous entry.

In the monthly breakdown for 2018, after the second separation bar, the 10th column is the Civilian Population Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 11th column is the Labor Force Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 12th column is the Actually Fully Employed Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 13th column is the amount that the 12th column exceeds the 10th column, or the amount of Unemployed that is being chipped away, despite manipulation of other figures.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | CPIn LFIn AEInc
Jan94 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0% |
Jan95 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1% | 1800 1305 02985/+1185
Jan96 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8% | 1881 0698 01100/-0781
Jan97 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4% | 2651 2921 03023/+0372
Jan98 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6% | 1953 1634 02752/+0799
Jan99 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7% | 2481 1992 02896/+0415
Jan00 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9% | 2063 1678 02256/+0193
Jan01 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9% | 2107 1428 00893/-1214
Jan02 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2% | 2200 0025 -2953/-5153

Jan02 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2% | 5617 2179 -1119/-6736
Jan03 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1% | 3391 2073 01179/-2212
Jan04 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7% | 2264 0767 00869/-1395
Jan05 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4% | 2676 1057 02116/-0560
Jan06 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5% | 2716 1965 03090/+0374
Jan07 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9% | 3097 2834 02677/-0420
Jan08 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7% | 1966 0904 -0283/-2249
Jan09 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4% | 2123 0617 -7611/-9734
Jan10 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6% | 2093 -488 -4112/-6205
Jan11 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9% | 1872 -421 00923/-0949
Jan12 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4% | 3565 0949 02625/-0940
Jan13 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3% | 2394 1309 01910/-0484
Jan14 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5% | 2252 -413 02802/+0550
Jan15 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5% | 2808 1669 03518/+0710
Jan16 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3% | 2664 1297 03377/+0713
Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% | 1685 1329 01596/-0089
Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 2698 1361 03068/+0370
Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% | 1459 2067 01953/+0494


Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% |
Feb17 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7% | 164 00806 01495
Mar17 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9% | 168 00430 01230
Apr17 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8% | 174 -0095 00147
My 17 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8% | 179 00162 00141
Jun17 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3% | 190 01358 00119
Jul17 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5% | 194 00574 00508
Aug17 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0% | 206 -1048 -0594
Sep17 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0% | 205 00186 01307
Oct17 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7% | 204 -0584 -0026
Nov17 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7% | 183 00001 -0101
Dec17 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4% | 160 -0586 -1016

Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 671 00157 -1142 | 2698 1361 3068 +370
Feb18 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9% | 154 01457 01694 | 2688 2012 3267 +579
Mar18 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8% | 163 00054 00740 | 2681 1636 2777 +096
Apr18 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7% | 175 -0268 00815 | 2684 1463 2445 -239
My 18 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8% | 182 00485 00714 | 2687 1786 3028 +341
Jun18 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4% | 188 01512 00060 | 2685 1940 2959 +274
Jul18 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5% | 201 00457 00812 | 2692 1823 3262 +570
Aug18 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7% | 223 -1825 -1027 | 2709 1046 2830 +121
Sep18 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7% | 224 00049 00678 | 2341 0909 2201 -140
Oct18 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9% | 224 00765 00829 | 2748 2218 3056 +308
Nov18 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9% | 194 -0058 -0280 | 2759 2199 2877 +118
Dec18 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8% | 180 -0155 -0643 | 2779 2630 3250 +471

Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% |-649 -0406 -2439 | 1459 2067 1953 +494
Feb19 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0% | 153 00689 02270 | 1458 1299 2529 1071
Mar19 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0% | 145 00030 00202 | 1440 1275 1991 +551
Apr19 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7% | 156 -0726 00393 | 1421 0817 1569 +148
May19 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8% | 168 00558 00796 | 1407 0890 1651 +244


Jul12 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3 |
Aug12 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7 | 212 -1271 -0072
Sep12 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6 | 206 -0180 00494
Oct12 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8 | 211 00704 00940
Nov12 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5 | 191 -1174 -0619

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:


The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. Except possibly 2010, 2011, 2016.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 2nd column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

I am really impressed with how well this Table 6 presents the data.

The problem of data manipulation is driven by the desire for Fake Headlines. I have attempted to circumvent the Fake Data by looking at it in a way which avoids the manipulations.
I don't feel the Civilian noninstitutional Population is easily manipulated or faked, and I have not heard claims of such. This could be thought of as birthing rates, just delayed by 16-18 years until chillen are job-ready.
I also don't feel that the count of who is actually Employed is being consistently faked or manipulated - what would be the point of any of that? Both Full-Time and Voluntary Part-Time would apply here. Why would either employers or employees lie about that?
The figure which is fiddled and manipulated mostly seems to be how many are "Unemployed" and, therefore, the "Labor Force" figure. I do not argue that. But this Table presents data circumventing that manipulation.
Other manipulating and faking occur with "Seasonally Adjusted" counts and calculations, which the Shadow Stats site comments on a lot. I have been avoiding these numbers in this thread, using only non-adjusted figures. However, this does allow fluctuations of different months and seasons to show up, and can be more difficult to filter and interpret, and interpolate.

For the yearly January counts, the table shows the Increase of the Civilian Population, and also the Increase of the Actually Fully Employed, compared to the count 12 months prior.
For the monthly breakdowns, the first sets show the Increase from the month before.
But for the breakdown of 2018 months, the second sets show the Increase from the prior same month, 12 months before. This is a figure which ignores Seasonal variations, because last year the same month was in the same season. Also, these figures can be compared to the historical trend, because all of these figures are on a 12-month scale.

By this method, we can clearly see that in the past 12 months, only 2 months (April and September) had an Increase in Actually Fully Employed which was less than the Increase in Civilian Population.
This shows that for 10 of the months, the AE Increase was greater than the CivPop Increase! Meaning that for every single fresh newly added Civilian, there was a job to absorb them, AND also additional jobs to suck out more workers from the "Unemployed" cloud, no matter how they were categorized. That means that the job growth is certainly chipping away at the portion of Labor Force which is non Employed, or not Fully Employed.
To be clear: to maintain Par, the Actually Fully Employed Increase would only need to keep pace with the Increase of Labor Force - which is less than 2/3 of the Civilian Population. But the AE Inc is not only blowing past that Par figure, it is even exceeding the raw count of the full Civilian noninstitutional Population Increase! In February and July it was a half million more, even with a reportedly tight labor market.
This is seen as the last column being a greater number than the third-to-last column.

And even the stated Labor Force Increase over 12 months prior (second to last column) is a positive number every month this year, no losses.

I hope this makes sense.
I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.

This does help show a consistent trend for the year, and can predict that next month (Jan 2019) will show an improvement in the Labor Force Participation Rate, about 0.5% higher than January 2018.

I guess that last statement could be considered a prediction, which was proven True.
For March 2019: from Jan 2018 to Jan 2019 the Actual Fully Employed figure increased by almost a half million beyond the total increase in Civilian noninstitutional Population. Meaning not only every additional person added to the available Population, but an additional half million who were previously in an unemployed or underemployed category.
For the months Jan-Mar 2018, the average was 348,000 (compared to the same month, prior year).
For the months Jan-Mar 2019, the average is 705,000.
For April 2019: For the months Jan-Apr 2018, the average was 202,000.
For the months Jan-Apr 2019, the average was 566,000.

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Friday, June 7, 2019 8:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Anybody working for my company by the 2nd quarter of this year need to check their emotions and free thought at the door. I talked with a woman who used to work in HR before she was laid off and she confirmed the future plans for the company within the scope of the next 5 or so years and it jibes with what I've already been hearing.

I may or may not choose to say the name of the company after my employment ends. I need to look up my possible legal liability for doing so. I didn't mind mentioning K-Mart after the fact because they're a dying horse and have a lot bigger problems to deal with. My current employer is very much alive and kicking, but in the beginning stages of a large metamorphosis.

Hopefully our children and grand children don't all find themselves working for them, or whoever wins the Franchise Wars and buys them out in the future.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, June 13, 2019 5:01 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA - 2 week avg 220,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.

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Thursday, June 20, 2019 7:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA - 3 week avg 219,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.

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Thursday, June 27, 2019 5:15 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.


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Thursday, June 27, 2019 5:23 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Thanks for posting. When you do, I always check it out, though I don't always respond.

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Friday, July 5, 2019 4:56 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report data:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-1

Jan 2002 is listed twice. First with original report data from February 2002. Second with revised data from new Census data, published in February 2003.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BLS currently defines the Want A Job category as not being part of the Labor Force.

So I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.


Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6
Jan98 07069 05.2% 5026 3.7% 12095 08.9% 4090 3.0% 16185 11.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 04.8% 4800 3.5% 11404 08.3% 3645 2.6% 15049 10.9% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 04.5% 4354 3.1% 10670 07.6% 3355 2.4% 14025 10.0% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 04.7% 4474 3.2% 11121 07.9% 3559 2.5% 14680 10.4% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 06.3% 4872 3.5% 13807 09.8% 4249 3.0% 18056 12.8% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 06.3% 4938 3.4% 13989 09.8% 4453 3.1% 18442 12.9% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 06.5% 4779 3.3% 14174 09.8% 5003 3.4% 19177 13.2% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 06.3% 4913 3.4% 14057 09.6% 5152 3.5% 19209 13.2% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 05.7% 5136 3.5% 13580 09.2% 4793 3.3% 18373 12.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 05.1% 5095 3.4% 12703 08.5% 4513 3.0% 17216 11.5% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 05.0% 4633 3.0% 12282 08.1% 4620 3.0% 16902 11.1% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 05.4% 4977 3.2% 13198 08.6% 5235 3.5% 18433 12.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 08.5% 5866 3.8% 18875 12.3% 8675 5.7% 27550 18.0% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 10.6% 6108 4.0% 22255 14.6% 9161 5.9% 31416 20.5% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 09.8% 6643 4.3% 21580 14.1% 9027 6.0% 30607 20.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 08.8% 6495 4.3% 20036 13.1% 8747 5.7% 28783 18.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 08.5% 6781 4.4% 19962 12.9% 8506 5.5% 28468 18.4% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 07.0% 6508 4.2% 17363 11.2% 7617 5.0% 24980 16.2% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 06.1% 6467 4.1% 15965 10.2% 7125 4.6% 23090 14.8% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 05.3% 6166 3.9% 14475 09.2% 6234 4.0% 20709 13.2% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 05.1% 5934 3.8% 14083 08.9% 6127 3.8% 20210 12.7% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 04.4% 5152 3.2% 12243 07.6% 5241 3.2% 17484 10.8% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 04.1% 4793 3.0% 11464 07.1% 4975 3.1% 16439 10.2% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 03.7% 5010 3.1% 10942 06.8% 4631 2.9% 15573 09.7% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
May18 05657 03.6% 5696 3.5% 11353 07.0% 4677 2.9% 16030 09.9% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 04.2% 5654 3.5% 12466 07.6% 4974 3.0% 17440 10.7% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 04.1% 5483 3.3% 12213 07.5% 4701 2.9% 16914 10.3% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 03.9% 5534 3.4% 11904 07.3% 4263 2.6% 16167 09.9% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 03.6% 5070 3.1% 10836 06.7% 4238 2.6% 15074 09.3% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 03.5% 5048 3.1% 10819 06.6% 4169 2.6% 14988 09.2% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nov18 05650 03.5% 5060 3.1% 10710 06.6% 4512 2.8% 15222 09.4% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 03.7% 5121 3.1% 11150 06.8% 4621 2.8% 15771 09.6% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 04.1% 5196 3.2% 11821 07.3% 4477 2.8% 16298 10.0% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 03.9% 4887 3.0% 11269 06.9% 4548 2.8% 15817 09.7% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 03.3% 4951 3.1% 10338 06.4% 4424 2.7% 14762 09.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 03.4% 5500 3.4% 11003 06.8% 4070 2.5% 15073 09.3% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jun19 06292 03.8% 5725 3.5% 12017 07.3% 4529 2.8% 16546 10.1% 259037 164120 63.4 07.5


Jul12 13400 08.6% 6837 4.3% 20237 12.9% 8218 5.3% 28455 18.2% 243354 156526 64.3 15.2
Aug12 12696 08.2% 7631 4.9% 20327 13.1% 7723 5.0% 28050 18.1% 243566 155255 63.7 14.6
Sep12 11742 07.6% 6427 4.1% 18169 11.7% 8003 5.2% 26172 16.9% 243772 155075 63.6 14.2
Oct12 11741 07.5% 6142 4.0% 17883 11.5% 7768 5.0% 25651 16.5% 243983 155779 63.8 13.9
Nov12 11404 07.4% 6495 4.2% 17899 11.6% 7898 5.0% 25797 16.6% 244174 154953 63.5 13.9
Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.


Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.

Well, it looks like the current U6 right now is lower than every January of the past 24 years, since the creation of U-6, according to BLS figures.

From 2009 to 2017, the Civilian noninstitutional Population grew by 19.343 Million. With a nominal post-9/11 Labor Participation Rate of 66%, the Labor Force would have grown by 12.766 Million. But Obama's Deep State reported that the Labor Force only grew by 5.231 Million. Labor Force is defined as all Employed + all Unemployed. So Obama would have you believe that during his 8 years, 7.5 Million extra Employ-eligible population were NOT unemployed (nor employed).



Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.



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Friday, July 5, 2019 4:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report to this Table of Data, which seems to best show the components of U6:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-2

Note: this year the Marginally Attached data is in Table A-16 of the report.
Quote:

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. For example, the current Rate of 4.1% (for 4 months straight) is SeasAdj, and the real Rate is 4.5% for Jan 2018. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category. The 5th column is the sum of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached - which more accurately represents the Actual Unemployed. The 6th column is the Rate for column 5 figure.
The 7th column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 8th column is the Rate for column 7. The 9th column is the sum of the 5th column plus 7th column. 10th column is the Rate for column 9 figure. The Rates in columns 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 11th column is the Civilian Population. 12th column is Labor Force, 13th column is Participation Rate. 14th column is the published U-6 figure.


Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unemp Pct MrgAt Pct SbTtl Pct InvPT Pct Total Pcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U6%
Ja93 09911 07.9 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 6181 4.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 4963 3.8 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0
Ja95 08101 06.2 1783 1.4 09884 07.6 4620 3.5 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1
Ja96 08270 06.3 1737 1.3 10007 07.6 4103 3.1 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Ja97 07933 05.9 1615 1.2 09548 07.1 4338 3.2 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Ja98 07069 05.2 1479 1.1 08548 06.3 4090 3.0 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Ja99 06604 04.8 1358 1.0 07962 05.8 3645 2.6 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Ja00 06316 04.5 1197 0.9 07513 05.4 3355 2.4 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Ja01 06647 04.7 1290 0.9 07937 05.6 3559 2.5 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Ja02 08935 06.3 1509 1.1 10444 07.4 4249 3.0 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Ja02 09051 06.3 1532 1.1 10583 07.4 4453 3.1 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Ja03 09395 06.5 1598 1.1 10993 07.6 5003 3.4 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Ja04 09144 06.3 1670 1.1 10814 07.4 5152 3.5 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Ja05 08444 05.7 1804 1.2 10248 07.0 4793 3.3 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Ja06 07608 05.1 1644 1.1 09252 06.2 4513 3.0 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Ja07 07649 05.0 1577 1.0 09226 06.1 4620 3.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Ja08 08221 05.4 1729 1.1 09950 06.5 5235 3.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Ja09 13009 08.5 2130 1.4 15139 09.9 8675 5.6 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Ja10 16147 10.6 2539 1.6 18686 12.2 9161 6.0 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Ja11 14937 09.8 2800 1.8 17737 11.6 9027 5.9 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Ja12 13541 08.8 2809 1.9 16350 10.7 8747 5.7 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Ja13 13181 08.5 2443 1.6 15624 10.1 8506 5.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Ja14 10855 07.0 2592 1.7 13447 08.7 7617 4.9 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Ja15 09498 06.1 2234 1.4 11732 07.5 7125 4.6 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Ja16 08309 05.3 2089 1.3 10398 06.6 6234 4.0 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Ja17 08149 05.1 1752 1.1 09901 06.2 6127 3.9 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Fb18 07091 04.4 1602 1.0 08693 05.4 5241 3.2 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mr18 06671 04.1 1454 0.9 08125 05.0 4975 3.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Ap18 05932 03.7 1362 0.8 07294 04.5 4631 2.9 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My18 05657 03.6 1455 0.9 07112 04.4 4677 2.9 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jn18 06812 04.2 1437 0.9 08249 05.1 4974 3.0 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jl18 06730 04.1 1498 0.9 08228 05.0 4701 2.9 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Au18 06370 03.9 1443 0.9 07813 04.8 4263 2.6 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Se18 05766 03.6 1577 1.0 07343 04.5 4238 2.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oc18 05771 03.5 1491 0.9 07262 04.5 4169 2.6 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nv18 05650 03.5 1678 1.0 07328 04.5 4512 2.8 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dc18 06029 03.7 1556 0.9 07585 04.6 4621 2.8 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Fe19 06625 04.1 1424 0.9 08049 04.9 4477 2.8 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mr19 06382 03.9 1357 0.8 07739 04.8 4548 2.8 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Ap19 05387 03.3 1417 0.9 06804 04.2 4424 2.7 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
My19 05503 03.4 1395 0.9 06898 04.2 4070 2.5 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jn19 06292 03.8 1571 1.0 07863 04.8 4529 2.8 12391 07.5 259037 164120 63.4 07.5


Jl12 13400 08.6 2529 1.6 15929 10.2 8218 5.2 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 2561 1.6 15257 09.8 7723 5.0 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 2517 1.6 14259 09.2 8003 5.2 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 2433 1.6 14174 09.1 7768 5.0 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 2505 1.6 13909 09.0 7898 5.1 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure. It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
By 2016 the Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time counts were more than the Fake Unemployment count.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.
For March 2019, the Marginally Attached raw count is the lowest since Jan 2001, and the percentage of 0.8 is the lowest on the table.
Comparing to March 2018, the U-3 is 0.2% less, the Marginally Attached is 0.1% less, the Involuntary Part-Time is 0.3% less, and the U-6 is 0.6% less.
Most of the time, the April U-6 drops about 0.8%, so next month we'll likely see record low numbers across the board.

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Friday, July 5, 2019 4:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which includes Not Fully Employed Rate.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-3

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the Unemployed.
The 2nd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category.
The 3rd column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 4th column of numbers is the sum of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd columns. 5th column is the Rate for column 4 figure, divided by Labor Force.

The 6th column of numbers is the Subtotal of columns 1 and 3, Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time.
The 7th column is Labor Force minus column 6. This is also Employed minus column 3 Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 8th column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 9th column is the Civilian Population. 10th column is Labor Force, 11th column is Participation Rate. 12th column is the published U-6 figure.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%
Jan94 09492 2120 4963 16575 12.8 14455 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0
Jan95 08101 1783 4620 14504 11.1 12721 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1
Jan96 08270 1737 4103 14110 10.7 12373 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Jan97 07933 1615 4338 13886 10.3 12271 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Jan98 07069 1479 4090 12638 09.3 11159 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 1358 3645 11607 08.4 10249 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 1197 3355 10868 07.8 09671 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 1290 3559 11496 08.2 10206 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 1509 4249 14693 10.4 13184 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 1532 4453 15036 10.5 13504 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 1598 5003 15996 11.0 14398 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 1670 5152 15966 10.9 14296 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 1804 4793 15041 10.2 13237 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 1644 4513 13765 09.2 12122 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 1577 4620 13846 09.1 12269 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 1729 5235 15185 09.9 13456 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 2130 8675 23814 15.5 21684 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 2539 9161 27847 18.2 25308 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 2800 9027 26764 17.5 23964 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 2809 8747 25097 16.4 22288 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 2443 8506 24130 15.6 21687 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 2592 7617 21064 13.6 18472 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 2234 7125 18857 12.1 16623 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 2089 6234 16632 10.6 14543 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Feb17 07887 1723 5700 15310 09.6 13587 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7 09.5
Mar17 07289 1595 5498 14381 09.0 12787 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9 08.9
Apr17 06555 1534 4990 13079 08.2 11545 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8 08.1
My 17 06572 1475 4994 13041 08.2 11566 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8 08.1
Jun17 07250 1582 5555 14387 08.9 12805 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3 08.9
Jul17 07441 1629 5430 14500 09.0 12871 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5 08.9
Aug17 07287 1548 5130 13965 08.7 12417 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0 08.6
Sep17 06556 1569 4740 12865 08.0 11296 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0 08.0
Oct17 06242 1535 4496 12273 07.6 10738 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7 07.6
Nov17 06286 1481 4554 12321 07.7 10840 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7 07.7
Dec17 06278 1623 4992 12893 08.1 11270 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4 08.0

Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 1602 5241 13934 08.6 12332 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 1454 4975 13100 08.1 11646 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 1362 4631 11925 07.4 10563 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My 18 05657 1455 4677 11789 07.3 10334 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 1437 4974 13223 08.1 11786 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 1498 4701 12929 07.9 11431 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 1443 4263 12076 07.4 10633 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 1577 4238 11581 07.2 10004 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 1491 4169 11431 07.0 09940 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0

Nov18 05650 1678 4512 11840 07.3 10162 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 1556 4621 12206 07.4 10650 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 1424 4477 12526 07.7 11102 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 1357 4548 12287 07.5 10930 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 1417 4424 11228 06.9 09811 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 1395 4070 10968 06.7 09573 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jun19 06292 1571 4529 12391 07.5 10820 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4 07.5

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%


Jul12 13400 2529 8218 24147 15.4 21618 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3
Aug12 12696 2561 7723 22980 14.8 20419 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7
Sep12 11742 2517 8003 22262 14.4 19745 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6
Oct12 11741 2433 7768 21942 14.1 19509 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8
Nov12 11404 2505 7898 21807 14.1 19302 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.


The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 8th column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working, and compare to other periods since U-6 was created. These 2 figures help show how the Labor Force Participation Rate and U-6 realistically work together.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

One comparison of note for July 2018: in the past 2 months (since schools were in session), the Labor Force has increased by almost 2 million, but the sums of Unemployed and Involuntary Part-time have only increased 1.1 million. This means that about 900,000 of fresh schooling products have been absorbed by the demand from employers, in only 2 months.
For February 2019, not much spectacular is shown. Mostly a return of most figures to the trends present in the December figures, which were prior to the Pelosi Shutdown of Government.
Of some interest is that this indicates that the January U-6 figure without the Pelosi Shutdown would have been about 8.0%. Since I had chosen to use January as the annual snapshot representation of all the years, this leaves this one year a blip out of context. All other Januarys have similar situations and templates, and 2019 has no similar comparison.
This 8.0% realistic comparison figure would have been the 2nd best on the table, behind 7.8% in 2000.
One thing I had not continued to noticed before. After Obamanomics was able to get the total of Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time higher than the U-3 Unemployment Rate by Jan 2016, Trump was able to keep that balance reversed until Oct 2018, except for Dec 2017. The U-3 is the larger, more stable and consistent of all the subcomponents of the U-6, and the other 2 are just bloated from Obamanomics.
Following the 2018 Midterm Elections, this balanced switched again for Nov, Dec, Jan. But now for Feb and March, the balance is restored and the subtotal is lower than the Unemployment Rate.

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Friday, July 5, 2019 4:58 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, where I included the Margin of Gain for Labor Force, and Margin of Gain for Actually Fully Employed:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-4

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed.
The 2nd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category.
The 3rd column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT.
The 4th column is the sum of the first 3 columns. 5th column is the Rate for column 4 figure, with Labor Force as the denominator.
The 6th column of numbers is the Subtotal of columns 1 and 3, Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time.
The 7th column is Labor Force minus column 6. This is also Employed minus column 3 Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.
Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 8th column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.
The 9th column is the Civilian Population. 10th column is Labor Force, 11th column is Participation Rate.
The 12th column is Marginal Labor Force Rate. This percent is the gain of the Labor Force divided by the gain of the Civilian noninstitutional Population.
The 13th column is the Marginal Actual Fully Employed Rate. This percent is the gain in the Actual Fully Employed divided by the gain of the Civilian noninstitutional Population.

Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem MrgAt InvPT Total Prct SubTtl AcEmpl NtEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% MgLF MgAE
Ja94 09492 2120 4963 16575 12.8 14455 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0 +101.5
Ja95 08101 1783 4620 14504 11.1 12721 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1 +072.5 +165.8
Ja96 08270 1737 4103 14110 10.7 12373 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8 +037.1 +058.5
Ja97 07933 1615 4338 13886 10.3 12271 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4 +110.2 +114.1
Ja98 07069 1479 4090 12638 09.3 11159 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6 +083.7 +140.9
Ja99 06604 1358 3645 11607 08.4 10249 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7 +080.3 +116.7
Ja00 06316 1197 3355 10868 07.8 09671 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9 +081.3 +109.4
Ja01 06647 1290 3559 11496 08.2 10206 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9 +067.8 +042.4
Ja02 08935 1509 4249 14693 10.4 13184 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2 +001.1 --134.2

Ja02 09051 1532 4453 15036 10.5 13504 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2 +038.8 --019.9
Ja03 09395 1598 5003 15996 11.0 14398 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1 +061.1 +034.8
Ja04 09144 1670 5152 15966 10.9 14296 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7 +033.9 +038.4
Ja05 08444 1804 4793 15041 10.2 13237 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4 +039.5 +079.1
Ja06 07608 1644 4513 13765 09.2 12122 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5 +072.3 +113.8
Ja07 07649 1577 4620 13846 09.1 12269 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9 +091.5 +086.4
Ja08 08221 1729 5235 15185 09.9 13456 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7 +046.0 --014.4
Ja09 13009 2130 8675 23814 15.5 21684 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4 +029.1 --358.5
Ja10 16147 2539 9161 27847 18.2 25308 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6 --023.3 --196.5
Ja11 14937 2800 9027 26764 17.5 23964 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9 --022.5 +049.3
Ja12 13541 2809 8747 25097 16.4 22288 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4 +026.6 +073.6
Ja13 13181 2443 8506 24130 15.6 21687 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3 +054.7 +079.8
Ja14 10855 2592 7617 21064 13.6 18472 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5 --018.3 +124.4
Ja15 09498 2234 7125 18857 12.1 16623 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5 +059.4 +125.3
Ja16 08309 2089 6234 16632 10.6 14543 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3 +055.8 +145.6
Ja17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 +078.9 +094.7
Ja18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 +050.4 +113.7
Ja19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 160104 62.8 +004.6 +133.9


Ja18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3
Fb18 07091 1602 5241 13934 08.6 12332 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9 +946.1 1100.0
Mr18 06671 1454 4975 13100 08.1 11646 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8 +033.1 +454.0
Ap18 05932 1362 4631 11925 07.4 10563 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7 --153.1 +456.7
My18 05657 1455 4677 11789 07.3 10334 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8 +266.5 +243.4
Jn18 06812 1437 4974 13223 08.1 11786 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4 +804.3 +031.9
Jl 18 06730 1498 4701 12929 07.9 11431 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5 +404.0 +212.4
Au18 06370 1443 4263 12076 07.4 10633 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7 --818.4 --460.5
Se18 05766 1577 4238 11581 07.2 10004 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7 +021.9 +302.7
Oc18 05771 1491 4169 11431 07.0 09940 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9 +341.5 +370.1
Nv18 05650 1678 4512 11840 07.3 10162 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9 --029.9 --144.3
Dc18 06029 1556 4621 12206 07.4 10650 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8 --086.1 --357.2

Ja19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8
Fe19 06625 1424 4477 12526 07.7 11102 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0 +450.3 1483.7
Mr19 06382 1357 4548 12287 07.5 10930 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0 +020.7 +139.3
Ap19 05387 1417 4424 11228 06.9 09811 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7 --390.3 +211.3
My19 05503 1395 4070 10968 06.7 09573 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8 +332.1 +475.0
Jn19 06292 1571 4529 12391 07.5 10820 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4 +832.4 +123.9


Jl 12 13400 2529 8218 24147 15.4 21618 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3
Ag12 12696 2561 7723 22980 14.8 20419 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7 --598.6 --034.0
Se12 11742 2517 8003 22262 14.4 19745 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6 --087.4 +239.8
Oc12 11741 2433 7768 21942 14.1 19509 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8 +333.6 +445.5
No12 11404 2505 7898 21807 14.1 19302 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5 --432.5 --324.1
MoYr Unem MrgAt InvPT Total Prct SubTtl AcEmpl NtEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% MgLF MgAE


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.
This color highlights Actually Employed figures which have not recovered from a prior high count.
This color highlights growth of Civilian noninstitutional Population over 3 Million, 18 years after relevant births.


Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.

For February 2019 the surge in the Marginal Actual Fully Employed Rate is likely mostly due to the return to work following the end of the Pelosi Shutdown of Government, and partly due to the Census adjustment of Civilian noninstitutional Population - the denominator.




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Friday, July 5, 2019 4:58 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



The shadowstats site is lean on actual data, requiring a subscription to access what it claims as database.
However, I will make attempt to add in some of the data it presents. This does make assumption that their methodology and counting methods are valid, which I cannot find clear information about.
There also may be comingling of Seasonally Adjusted figures from shadowstats without clarity, but this will be the only series of Tables I post which veer from Not Seasonally Adjusted figures.

The charts they present do show that Unemployment under Trump is better than any time under Obamanomics, so it may be a worthwhile endeavor to investigate.




I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-5


I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.


The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is the sum of the Unemployed plus Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-time. 4th column is the Rate for column 3 figure. The Rates in columns 2 and 4 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 5th column is the Civilian Population. 6th column is Labor Force, 7th column is Participation Rate. 8th column is the published U-6 figure.
The 9th column is the Real Unemployment figure, as presented by shadowstats. The 10th column is the underreported, the difference between the U-6 figure from BLS and the Real figure from shadowstats.

Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6% Real Separation
Ja93 09911 07.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0 12% 15.3% 2.3%
Ja95 08101 06.2 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1 10% 13.5% 3.5%
Ja96 08270 06.3 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8% 13.5% 2.7%
Ja97 07933 05.9 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4% 13% 2.6%
Ja98 07069 05.2 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3% 12% 2.7%
Ja99 06604 04.8 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5% 11.5% 3.0%
Ja00 06316 04.5 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8% 11% 3.2%
Ja01 06647 04.7 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1% 10.5% 2.4%
Ja02 08935 06.3 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%

Ja02 09051 06.3 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%
Ja03 09395 06.5 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0% 13% 2.0%
Ja04 09144 06.3 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9% 14% 3.1%
Ja05 08444 05.7 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2% 13% 2.8%
Ja06 07608 05.1 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2% 12% 2.8%
Ja07 07649 05.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1% 12% 2.9%
Ja08 08221 05.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9% 13% 3.1%
Ja09 13009 08.5 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4% 20% 4.6%
Ja10 16147 10.6 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0% 22% 4.0%
Ja11 14937 09.8 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3% 22.5% 5.2%
Ja12 13541 08.8 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2% 22.5% 6.3%
Ja13 13181 08.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4% 23% 7.6%
Ja14 10855 07.0 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5% 23.5% 10%
Ja15 09498 06.1 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0% 23.5% 11.5%
Ja16 08309 05.3 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5% 23% 12.5%
Ja17 08149 05.1 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1% 23% 12.9%
Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%


Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Fb18 07091 04.4 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6% 21.9% 13.3%
Mr18 06671 04.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1% 21.8% 13.7%
Ap18 05932 03.7 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4% 21.5% 14.1%
My18 05657 03.6 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3% 21.4% 14.1%
Jn18 06812 04.2 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1% 21.5% 13.4%
J l 18 06730 04.1 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9% 21.3% 13.4%
Au18 06370 03.9 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4% 21.2% 13.8%
Se18 05766 03.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1% 21.3% 14.2%
Oc18 05771 03.5 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0% 21.2% 14.2%
Nv18 05650 03.5 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2% 21.4% 14.2%
Dc18 06029 03.7 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5% 21.4% 13.9%

Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%
Fe19 06625 04.1 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7% 21.1% 13.4%
Mr19 06382 03.9 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5% 21.2% 13.7%
Ap19 05387 03.3 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9% 21.2% 14.3%
My19 05503 03.4 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7% 21.1% 14.4%
Jn19 06292 03.8 12391 07.5 259037 164120 63.4 07.5% 21.2% 13.7%


J l 12 13400 08.6 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

A key factor that shadowstats points out is that the feeder category, the category which generates the discrepancy between BLS Fiction and reality, is the Marginally Attached. When Obamanomics doubled this figure, it was able to permanently exclude these Unemployed from the stats for the remainder of the Obamanomics Stagnation Extended Recession.
It was much more difficult for Obama to expell his victims from the BLS rolls around 2011 when Unemployment was so bad there were Extended Benefits, (so applicants were required to document work searches before getting Unemployment Insurance Payments) - and this part of the Work Force could not be deleted from the Labor Force until they stopped documenting their search for work.


The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure since the Redefining of 1994 (which shadowstats states was to cover up the Losses of Employment from NAFTA). It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.


The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
The Shadowstats figure for Jan 2019 shows the difference (bloat) is less than the prior Jan figure, for the first time since 2010.
So I assume this would mean that the bloat of Long-term Unemployed is being chipped away by Trump. Either by re-employment or transition to Retirement age, or both.
But this extra 9% of the Population that Obamanomics forced to Unemployment can now be whittled away and not expanded by default, only by actions such as the 2018 Elections.




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Friday, July 5, 2019 4:58 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which breaks down the numerical changes in the key figures.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-6

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.


The 1st column is Labor Force minus both Unemployed and Involuntary Part-Time. This is also Employed minus Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 2nd column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 3rd column is the Civilian Population. 4th column is Labor Force, 5th column is Participation Rate.

After the separation bar, the 7th column is the Increase in Civilian Population from the previous entry. For the entries by year, this is the 12 month Increase. For the entries broken down by month, this is the 1 month Increase.
The 8th column is the Increase in Labor Force from the previous entry.
The 9th column is the Increase in Actually Fully Employed count, from the previous entry.

In the monthly breakdown for 2018, after the second separation bar, the 10th column is the Civilian Population Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 11th column is the Labor Force Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 12th column is the Actually Fully Employed Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 13th column is the amount that the 12th column exceeds the 10th column, or the amount of Unemployed that is being chipped away, despite manipulation of other figures.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | CPIn LFIn AEInc
Jan94 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0% |
Jan95 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1% | 1800 1305 02985/+1185
Jan96 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8% | 1881 0698 01100/-0781
Jan97 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4% | 2651 2921 03023/+0372
Jan98 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6% | 1953 1634 02752/+0799
Jan99 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7% | 2481 1992 02896/+0415
Jan00 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9% | 2063 1678 02256/+0193
Jan01 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9% | 2107 1428 00893/-1214
Jan02 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2% | 2200 0025 -2953/-5153

Jan02 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2% | 5617 2179 -1119/-6736
Jan03 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1% | 3391 2073 01179/-2212
Jan04 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7% | 2264 0767 00869/-1395
Jan05 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4% | 2676 1057 02116/-0560
Jan06 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5% | 2716 1965 03090/+0374
Jan07 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9% | 3097 2834 02677/-0420
Jan08 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7% | 1966 0904 -0283/-2249
Jan09 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4% | 2123 0617 -7611/-9734
Jan10 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6% | 2093 -488 -4112/-6205
Jan11 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9% | 1872 -421 00923/-0949
Jan12 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4% | 3565 0949 02625/-0940
Jan13 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3% | 2394 1309 01910/-0484
Jan14 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5% | 2252 -413 02802/+0550
Jan15 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5% | 2808 1669 03518/+0710
Jan16 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3% | 2664 1297 03377/+0713
Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% | 1685 1329 01596/-0089
Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 2698 1361 03068/+0370
Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% | 1459 2067 01953/+0494


Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% |
Feb17 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7% | 164 00806 01495
Mar17 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9% | 168 00430 01230
Apr17 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8% | 174 -0095 00147
My 17 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8% | 179 00162 00141
Jun17 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3% | 190 01358 00119
Jul17 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5% | 194 00574 00508
Aug17 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0% | 206 -1048 -0594
Sep17 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0% | 205 00186 01307
Oct17 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7% | 204 -0584 -0026
Nov17 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7% | 183 00001 -0101
Dec17 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4% | 160 -0586 -1016

Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 671 00157 -1142 | 2698 1361 3068 +370
Feb18 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9% | 154 01457 01694 | 2688 2012 3267 +579
Mar18 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8% | 163 00054 00740 | 2681 1636 2777 +096
Apr18 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7% | 175 -0268 00815 | 2684 1463 2445 -239
My 18 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8% | 182 00485 00714 | 2687 1786 3028 +341
Jun18 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4% | 188 01512 00060 | 2685 1940 2959 +274
Jul18 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5% | 201 00457 00812 | 2692 1823 3262 +570
Aug18 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7% | 223 -1825 -1027 | 2709 1046 2830 +121
Sep18 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7% | 224 00049 00678 | 2341 0909 2201 -140
Oct18 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9% | 224 00765 00829 | 2748 2218 3056 +308
Nov18 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9% | 194 -0058 -0280 | 2759 2199 2877 +118
Dec18 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8% | 180 -0155 -0643 | 2779 2630 3250 +471

Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% |-649 -0406 -2439 | 1459 2067 1953 +494
Feb19 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0% | 153 00689 02270 | 1458 1299 2529 1071
Mar19 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0% | 145 00030 00202 | 1440 1275 1991 +551
Apr19 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7% | 156 -0726 00393 | 1421 0817 1569 +148
May19 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8% | 168 00558 00796 | 1407 0890 1651 +244
Jun19 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4% | 176 01465 00218 | 1395 0843 1809 +414

Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | CPIn LFIn AEInc |
Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | \SincLastMonth/ | \SinceLastYear/


Jul12 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3 |
Aug12 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7 | 212 -1271 -0072
Sep12 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6 | 206 -0180 00494
Oct12 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8 | 211 00704 00940
Nov12 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5 | 191 -1174 -0619

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:


The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. Except possibly 2010, 2011, 2016.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 2nd column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

I am really impressed with how well this Table 6 presents the data.

The problem of data manipulation is driven by the desire for Fake Headlines. I have attempted to circumvent the Fake Data by looking at it in a way which avoids the manipulations.
I don't feel the Civilian noninstitutional Population is easily manipulated or faked, and I have not heard claims of such. This could be thought of as birthing rates, just delayed by 16-18 years until chillen are job-ready.
I also don't feel that the count of who is actually Employed is being consistently faked or manipulated - what would be the point of any of that? Both Full-Time and Voluntary Part-Time would apply here. Why would either employers or employees lie about that?
The figure which is fiddled and manipulated mostly seems to be how many are "Unemployed" and, therefore, the "Labor Force" figure. I do not argue that. But this Table presents data circumventing that manipulation.
Other manipulating and faking occur with "Seasonally Adjusted" counts and calculations, which the Shadow Stats site comments on a lot. I have been avoiding these numbers in this thread, using only non-adjusted figures. However, this does allow fluctuations of different months and seasons to show up, and can be more difficult to filter and interpret, and interpolate.

For the yearly January counts, the table shows the Increase of the Civilian Population, and also the Increase of the Actually Fully Employed, compared to the count 12 months prior.
For the monthly breakdowns, the first sets show the Increase from the month before.
But for the breakdown of 2018 months, the second sets show the Increase from the prior same month, 12 months before. This is a figure which ignores Seasonal variations, because last year the same month was in the same season. Also, these figures can be compared to the historical trend, because all of these figures are on a 12-month scale.

By this method, we can clearly see that in the past 12 months, only 2 months (April and September) had an Increase in Actually Fully Employed which was less than the Increase in Civilian Population.
This shows that for 10 of the months, the AE Increase was greater than the CivPop Increase! Meaning that for every single fresh newly added Civilian, there was a job to absorb them, AND also additional jobs to suck out more workers from the "Unemployed" cloud, no matter how they were categorized. That means that the job growth is certainly chipping away at the portion of Labor Force which is non Employed, or not Fully Employed.
To be clear: to maintain Par, the Actually Fully Employed Increase would only need to keep pace with the Increase of Labor Force - which is less than 2/3 of the Civilian Population. But the AE Inc is not only blowing past that Par figure, it is even exceeding the raw count of the full Civilian noninstitutional Population Increase! In February and July it was a half million more, even with a reportedly tight labor market.
This is seen as the last column being a greater number than the third-to-last column.

And even the stated Labor Force Increase over 12 months prior (second to last column) is a positive number every month this year, no losses.

I hope this makes sense.
I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.

This does help show a consistent trend for the year, and can predict that next month (Jan 2019) will show an improvement in the Labor Force Participation Rate, about 0.5% higher than January 2018.

I guess that last statement could be considered a prediction, which was proven True.
For March 2019: from Jan 2018 to Jan 2019 the Actual Fully Employed figure increased by almost a half million beyond the total increase in Civilian noninstitutional Population. Meaning not only every additional person added to the available Population, but an additional half million who were previously in an unemployed or underemployed category.
For the months Jan-Mar 2018, the average was 348,000 (compared to the same month, prior year).
For the months Jan-Mar 2019, the average is 705,000.
For April 2019: For the months Jan-Apr 2018, the average was 202,000.
For the months Jan-Apr 2019, the average was 566,000.
For June 2019, that final column shows 9 consecutive months without a negative.
The average for that figure from Jan-Jun 2018 was 274, and same for 2019 is 487. At this pace, it seems that by Aug or Sep the Involutary Part-Time will be lower than any January figure, and the Not Fully Employed will be the lowest since the start of the Rock-The-Vote Recession, and the U6 will be even lower than the past few months.

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Friday, July 5, 2019 4:59 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.



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Wednesday, July 10, 2019 5:31 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I haven't been covering it, but today I heard repeated that foodstamp dependants are 6.7 Million fewer than Obamination got up to, and there are currenty 7.5 Million jobs waiting to be filled.

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Wednesday, July 10, 2019 7:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Great. Sign me up for one.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, July 15, 2019 5:37 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA - 2 week avg 215,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.

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Thursday, July 18, 2019 7:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA - 3 week avg 215,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.

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Friday, July 26, 2019 2:04 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.


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Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.



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Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report data:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-1

Jan 2002 is listed twice. First with original report data from February 2002. Second with revised data from new Census data, published in February 2003.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BLS currently defines the Want A Job category as not being part of the Labor Force.

So I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.


Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6
Jan98 07069 05.2% 5026 3.7% 12095 08.9% 4090 3.0% 16185 11.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 04.8% 4800 3.5% 11404 08.3% 3645 2.6% 15049 10.9% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 04.5% 4354 3.1% 10670 07.6% 3355 2.4% 14025 10.0% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 04.7% 4474 3.2% 11121 07.9% 3559 2.5% 14680 10.4% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 06.3% 4872 3.5% 13807 09.8% 4249 3.0% 18056 12.8% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 06.3% 4938 3.4% 13989 09.8% 4453 3.1% 18442 12.9% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 06.5% 4779 3.3% 14174 09.8% 5003 3.4% 19177 13.2% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 06.3% 4913 3.4% 14057 09.6% 5152 3.5% 19209 13.2% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 05.7% 5136 3.5% 13580 09.2% 4793 3.3% 18373 12.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 05.1% 5095 3.4% 12703 08.5% 4513 3.0% 17216 11.5% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 05.0% 4633 3.0% 12282 08.1% 4620 3.0% 16902 11.1% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 05.4% 4977 3.2% 13198 08.6% 5235 3.5% 18433 12.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 08.5% 5866 3.8% 18875 12.3% 8675 5.7% 27550 18.0% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 10.6% 6108 4.0% 22255 14.6% 9161 5.9% 31416 20.5% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 09.8% 6643 4.3% 21580 14.1% 9027 6.0% 30607 20.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 08.8% 6495 4.3% 20036 13.1% 8747 5.7% 28783 18.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 08.5% 6781 4.4% 19962 12.9% 8506 5.5% 28468 18.4% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 07.0% 6508 4.2% 17363 11.2% 7617 5.0% 24980 16.2% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 06.1% 6467 4.1% 15965 10.2% 7125 4.6% 23090 14.8% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 05.3% 6166 3.9% 14475 09.2% 6234 4.0% 20709 13.2% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 05.1% 5934 3.8% 14083 08.9% 6127 3.8% 20210 12.7% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 04.4% 5152 3.2% 12243 07.6% 5241 3.2% 17484 10.8% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 04.1% 4793 3.0% 11464 07.1% 4975 3.1% 16439 10.2% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 03.7% 5010 3.1% 10942 06.8% 4631 2.9% 15573 09.7% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
May18 05657 03.6% 5696 3.5% 11353 07.0% 4677 2.9% 16030 09.9% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 04.2% 5654 3.5% 12466 07.6% 4974 3.0% 17440 10.7% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 04.1% 5483 3.3% 12213 07.5% 4701 2.9% 16914 10.3% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 03.9% 5534 3.4% 11904 07.3% 4263 2.6% 16167 09.9% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 03.6% 5070 3.1% 10836 06.7% 4238 2.6% 15074 09.3% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 03.5% 5048 3.1% 10819 06.6% 4169 2.6% 14988 09.2% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nov18 05650 03.5% 5060 3.1% 10710 06.6% 4512 2.8% 15222 09.4% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 03.7% 5121 3.1% 11150 06.8% 4621 2.8% 15771 09.6% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 04.1% 5196 3.2% 11821 07.3% 4477 2.8% 16298 10.0% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 03.9% 4887 3.0% 11269 06.9% 4548 2.8% 15817 09.7% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 03.3% 4951 3.1% 10338 06.4% 4424 2.7% 14762 09.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 03.4% 5500 3.4% 11003 06.8% 4070 2.5% 15073 09.3% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jun19 06292 03.8% 5725 3.5% 12017 07.3% 4529 2.8% 16546 10.1% 259037 164120 63.4 07.5
Jul19 06556 04.0% 5289 3.2% 11845 07.2% 4017 2.4% 15862 09.6% 259225 164941 63.6 07.3


Jul12 13400 08.6% 6837 4.3% 20237 12.9% 8218 5.3% 28455 18.2% 243354 156526 64.3 15.2
Aug12 12696 08.2% 7631 4.9% 20327 13.1% 7723 5.0% 28050 18.1% 243566 155255 63.7 14.6
Sep12 11742 07.6% 6427 4.1% 18169 11.7% 8003 5.2% 26172 16.9% 243772 155075 63.6 14.2
Oct12 11741 07.5% 6142 4.0% 17883 11.5% 7768 5.0% 25651 16.5% 243983 155779 63.8 13.9
Nov12 11404 07.4% 6495 4.2% 17899 11.6% 7898 5.0% 25797 16.6% 244174 154953 63.5 13.9
Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.


Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.

Well, it looks like the current U6 right now is lower than every January of the past 24 years, since the creation of U-6, according to BLS figures.

From 2009 to 2017, the Civilian noninstitutional Population grew by 19.343 Million. With a nominal post-9/11 Labor Participation Rate of 66%, the Labor Force would have grown by 12.766 Million. But Obama's Deep State reported that the Labor Force only grew by 5.231 Million. Labor Force is defined as all Employed + all Unemployed. So Obama would have you believe that during his 8 years, 7.5 Million extra Employ-eligible population were NOT unemployed (nor employed).



Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.




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Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report to this Table of Data, which seems to best show the components of U6:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-2

Note: this year the Marginally Attached data is in Table A-16 of the report.
Quote:

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. For example, the current Rate of 4.1% (for 4 months straight) is SeasAdj, and the real Rate is 4.5% for Jan 2018. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category. The 5th column is the sum of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached - which more accurately represents the Actual Unemployed. The 6th column is the Rate for column 5 figure.
The 7th column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 8th column is the Rate for column 7. The 9th column is the sum of the 5th column plus 7th column. 10th column is the Rate for column 9 figure. The Rates in columns 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 11th column is the Civilian Population. 12th column is Labor Force, 13th column is Participation Rate. 14th column is the published U-6 figure.


Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unemp Pct MrgAt Pct SbTtl Pct InvPT Pct Total Pcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U6%
Ja93 09911 07.9 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 6181 4.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 4963 3.8 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0
Ja95 08101 06.2 1783 1.4 09884 07.6 4620 3.5 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1
Ja96 08270 06.3 1737 1.3 10007 07.6 4103 3.1 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Ja97 07933 05.9 1615 1.2 09548 07.1 4338 3.2 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Ja98 07069 05.2 1479 1.1 08548 06.3 4090 3.0 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Ja99 06604 04.8 1358 1.0 07962 05.8 3645 2.6 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Ja00 06316 04.5 1197 0.9 07513 05.4 3355 2.4 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Ja01 06647 04.7 1290 0.9 07937 05.6 3559 2.5 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Ja02 08935 06.3 1509 1.1 10444 07.4 4249 3.0 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Ja02 09051 06.3 1532 1.1 10583 07.4 4453 3.1 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Ja03 09395 06.5 1598 1.1 10993 07.6 5003 3.4 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Ja04 09144 06.3 1670 1.1 10814 07.4 5152 3.5 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Ja05 08444 05.7 1804 1.2 10248 07.0 4793 3.3 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Ja06 07608 05.1 1644 1.1 09252 06.2 4513 3.0 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Ja07 07649 05.0 1577 1.0 09226 06.1 4620 3.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Ja08 08221 05.4 1729 1.1 09950 06.5 5235 3.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Ja09 13009 08.5 2130 1.4 15139 09.9 8675 5.6 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Ja10 16147 10.6 2539 1.6 18686 12.2 9161 6.0 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Ja11 14937 09.8 2800 1.8 17737 11.6 9027 5.9 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Ja12 13541 08.8 2809 1.9 16350 10.7 8747 5.7 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Ja13 13181 08.5 2443 1.6 15624 10.1 8506 5.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Ja14 10855 07.0 2592 1.7 13447 08.7 7617 4.9 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Ja15 09498 06.1 2234 1.4 11732 07.5 7125 4.6 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Ja16 08309 05.3 2089 1.3 10398 06.6 6234 4.0 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Ja17 08149 05.1 1752 1.1 09901 06.2 6127 3.9 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Fb18 07091 04.4 1602 1.0 08693 05.4 5241 3.2 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mr18 06671 04.1 1454 0.9 08125 05.0 4975 3.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Ap18 05932 03.7 1362 0.8 07294 04.5 4631 2.9 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My18 05657 03.6 1455 0.9 07112 04.4 4677 2.9 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jn18 06812 04.2 1437 0.9 08249 05.1 4974 3.0 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jl18 06730 04.1 1498 0.9 08228 05.0 4701 2.9 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Au18 06370 03.9 1443 0.9 07813 04.8 4263 2.6 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Se18 05766 03.6 1577 1.0 07343 04.5 4238 2.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oc18 05771 03.5 1491 0.9 07262 04.5 4169 2.6 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nv18 05650 03.5 1678 1.0 07328 04.5 4512 2.8 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dc18 06029 03.7 1556 0.9 07585 04.6 4621 2.8 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Fe19 06625 04.1 1424 0.9 08049 04.9 4477 2.8 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mr19 06382 03.9 1357 0.8 07739 04.8 4548 2.8 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Ap19 05387 03.3 1417 0.9 06804 04.2 4424 2.7 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
My19 05503 03.4 1395 0.9 06898 04.2 4070 2.5 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jn19 06292 03.8 1571 1.0 07863 04.8 4529 2.8 12392 07.5 259037 164120 63.4 07.5
Jl19 06556 04.0 1478 0.9 08034 04.9 4017 2.4 12051 07.3 259225 164941 63.6 07.3


Jl12 13400 08.6 2529 1.6 15929 10.2 8218 5.2 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 2561 1.6 15257 09.8 7723 5.0 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 2517 1.6 14259 09.2 8003 5.2 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 2433 1.6 14174 09.1 7768 5.0 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 2505 1.6 13909 09.0 7898 5.1 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure. It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
By 2016 the Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time counts were more than the Fake Unemployment count.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.
For March 2019, the Marginally Attached raw count is the lowest since Jan 2001, and the percentage of 0.8 is the lowest on the table.
Comparing to March 2018, the U-3 is 0.2% less, the Marginally Attached is 0.1% less, the Involuntary Part-Time is 0.3% less, and the U-6 is 0.6% less.
Most of the time, the April U-6 drops about 0.8%, so next month we'll likely see record low numbers across the board.


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Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which includes Not Fully Employed Rate.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-3

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the Unemployed.
The 2nd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category.
The 3rd column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 4th column of numbers is the sum of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd columns. 5th column is the Rate for column 4 figure, divided by Labor Force.

The 6th column of numbers is the Subtotal of columns 1 and 3, Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time.
The 7th column is Labor Force minus column 6. This is also Employed minus column 3 Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 8th column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 9th column is the Civilian Population. 10th column is Labor Force, 11th column is Participation Rate. 12th column is the published U-6 figure.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%
Jan94 09492 2120 4963 16575 12.8 14455 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0
Jan95 08101 1783 4620 14504 11.1 12721 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1
Jan96 08270 1737 4103 14110 10.7 12373 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Jan97 07933 1615 4338 13886 10.3 12271 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Jan98 07069 1479 4090 12638 09.3 11159 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 1358 3645 11607 08.4 10249 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 1197 3355 10868 07.8 09671 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 1290 3559 11496 08.2 10206 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 1509 4249 14693 10.4 13184 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 1532 4453 15036 10.5 13504 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 1598 5003 15996 11.0 14398 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 1670 5152 15966 10.9 14296 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 1804 4793 15041 10.2 13237 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 1644 4513 13765 09.2 12122 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 1577 4620 13846 09.1 12269 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 1729 5235 15185 09.9 13456 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 2130 8675 23814 15.5 21684 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 2539 9161 27847 18.2 25308 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 2800 9027 26764 17.5 23964 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 2809 8747 25097 16.4 22288 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 2443 8506 24130 15.6 21687 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 2592 7617 21064 13.6 18472 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 2234 7125 18857 12.1 16623 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 2089 6234 16632 10.6 14543 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Feb17 07887 1723 5700 15310 09.6 13587 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7 09.5
Mar17 07289 1595 5498 14381 09.0 12787 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9 08.9
Apr17 06555 1534 4990 13079 08.2 11545 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8 08.1
My 17 06572 1475 4994 13041 08.2 11566 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8 08.1
Jun17 07250 1582 5555 14387 08.9 12805 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3 08.9
Jul17 07441 1629 5430 14500 09.0 12871 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5 08.9
Aug17 07287 1548 5130 13965 08.7 12417 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0 08.6
Sep17 06556 1569 4740 12865 08.0 11296 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0 08.0
Oct17 06242 1535 4496 12273 07.6 10738 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7 07.6
Nov17 06286 1481 4554 12321 07.7 10840 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7 07.7
Dec17 06278 1623 4992 12893 08.1 11270 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4 08.0

Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 1602 5241 13934 08.6 12332 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 1454 4975 13100 08.1 11646 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 1362 4631 11925 07.4 10563 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My 18 05657 1455 4677 11789 07.3 10334 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 1437 4974 13223 08.1 11786 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 1498 4701 12929 07.9 11431 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 1443 4263 12076 07.4 10633 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 1577 4238 11581 07.2 10004 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 1491 4169 11431 07.0 09940 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0

Nov18 05650 1678 4512 11840 07.3 10162 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 1556 4621 12206 07.4 10650 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 1424 4477 12526 07.7 11102 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 1357 4548 12287 07.5 10930 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 1417 4424 11228 06.9 09811 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 1395 4070 10968 06.7 09573 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jun19 06292 1571 4529 12391 07.5 10820 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4 07.5
Jul19 06556 1478 4017 12051 07.3 10573 154368 40.5% 259225 164941 63.6 07.3

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%


Jul12 13400 2529 8218 24147 15.4 21618 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3
Aug12 12696 2561 7723 22980 14.8 20419 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7
Sep12 11742 2517 8003 22262 14.4 19745 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6
Oct12 11741 2433 7768 21942 14.1 19509 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8
Nov12 11404 2505 7898 21807 14.1 19302 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.


The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 8th column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working, and compare to other periods since U-6 was created. These 2 figures help show how the Labor Force Participation Rate and U-6 realistically work together.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

One comparison of note for July 2018: in the past 2 months (since schools were in session), the Labor Force has increased by almost 2 million, but the sums of Unemployed and Involuntary Part-time have only increased 1.1 million. This means that about 900,000 of fresh schooling products have been absorbed by the demand from employers, in only 2 months.
For February 2019, not much spectacular is shown. Mostly a return of most figures to the trends present in the December figures, which were prior to the Pelosi Shutdown of Government.
Of some interest is that this indicates that the January U-6 figure without the Pelosi Shutdown would have been about 8.0%. Since I had chosen to use January as the annual snapshot representation of all the years, this leaves this one year a blip out of context. All other Januarys have similar situations and templates, and 2019 has no similar comparison.
This 8.0% realistic comparison figure would have been the 2nd best on the table, behind 7.8% in 2000.
One thing I had not continued to noticed before. After Obamanomics was able to get the total of Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time higher than the U-3 Unemployment Rate by Jan 2016, Trump was able to keep that balance reversed until Oct 2018, except for Dec 2017. The U-3 is the larger, more stable and consistent of all the subcomponents of the U-6, and the other 2 are just bloated from Obamanomics.
Following the 2018 Midterm Elections, this balanced switched again for Nov, Dec, Jan. But now for Feb and March, the balance is restored and the subtotal is lower than the Unemployment Rate.


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Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, where I included the Margin of Gain for Labor Force, and Margin of Gain for Actually Fully Employed:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-4

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed.
The 2nd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category.
The 3rd column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT.
The 4th column is the sum of the first 3 columns. 5th column is the Rate for column 4 figure, with Labor Force as the denominator.
The 6th column of numbers is the Subtotal of columns 1 and 3, Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time.
The 7th column is Labor Force minus column 6. This is also Employed minus column 3 Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.
Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 8th column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.
The 9th column is the Civilian Population. 10th column is Labor Force, 11th column is Participation Rate.
The 12th column is Marginal Labor Force Rate. This percent is the gain of the Labor Force divided by the gain of the Civilian noninstitutional Population.
The 13th column is the Marginal Actual Fully Employed Rate. This percent is the gain in the Actual Fully Employed divided by the gain of the Civilian noninstitutional Population.

Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem MrgAt InvPT Total Prct SubTtl AcEmpl NtEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% MgLF MgAE
Ja94 09492 2120 4963 16575 12.8 14455 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0 +101.5
Ja95 08101 1783 4620 14504 11.1 12721 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1 +072.5 +165.8
Ja96 08270 1737 4103 14110 10.7 12373 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8 +037.1 +058.5
Ja97 07933 1615 4338 13886 10.3 12271 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4 +110.2 +114.1
Ja98 07069 1479 4090 12638 09.3 11159 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6 +083.7 +140.9
Ja99 06604 1358 3645 11607 08.4 10249 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7 +080.3 +116.7
Ja00 06316 1197 3355 10868 07.8 09671 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9 +081.3 +109.4
Ja01 06647 1290 3559 11496 08.2 10206 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9 +067.8 +042.4
Ja02 08935 1509 4249 14693 10.4 13184 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2 +001.1 --134.2

Ja02 09051 1532 4453 15036 10.5 13504 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2 +038.8 --019.9
Ja03 09395 1598 5003 15996 11.0 14398 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1 +061.1 +034.8
Ja04 09144 1670 5152 15966 10.9 14296 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7 +033.9 +038.4
Ja05 08444 1804 4793 15041 10.2 13237 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4 +039.5 +079.1
Ja06 07608 1644 4513 13765 09.2 12122 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5 +072.3 +113.8
Ja07 07649 1577 4620 13846 09.1 12269 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9 +091.5 +086.4
Ja08 08221 1729 5235 15185 09.9 13456 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7 +046.0 --014.4
Ja09 13009 2130 8675 23814 15.5 21684 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4 +029.1 --358.5
Ja10 16147 2539 9161 27847 18.2 25308 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6 --023.3 --196.5
Ja11 14937 2800 9027 26764 17.5 23964 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9 --022.5 +049.3
Ja12 13541 2809 8747 25097 16.4 22288 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4 +026.6 +073.6
Ja13 13181 2443 8506 24130 15.6 21687 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3 +054.7 +079.8
Ja14 10855 2592 7617 21064 13.6 18472 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5 --018.3 +124.4
Ja15 09498 2234 7125 18857 12.1 16623 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5 +059.4 +125.3
Ja16 08309 2089 6234 16632 10.6 14543 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3 +055.8 +145.6
Ja17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 +078.9 +094.7
Ja18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 +050.4 +113.7
Ja19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 160104 62.8 +004.6 +133.9


Ja18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3
Fb18 07091 1602 5241 13934 08.6 12332 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9 +946.1 1100.0
Mr18 06671 1454 4975 13100 08.1 11646 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8 +033.1 +454.0
Ap18 05932 1362 4631 11925 07.4 10563 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7 --153.1 +456.7
My18 05657 1455 4677 11789 07.3 10334 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8 +266.5 +243.4
Jn18 06812 1437 4974 13223 08.1 11786 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4 +804.3 +031.9
Jl 18 06730 1498 4701 12929 07.9 11431 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5 +404.0 +212.4
Au18 06370 1443 4263 12076 07.4 10633 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7 --818.4 --460.5
Se18 05766 1577 4238 11581 07.2 10004 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7 +021.9 +302.7
Oc18 05771 1491 4169 11431 07.0 09940 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9 +341.5 +370.1
Nv18 05650 1678 4512 11840 07.3 10162 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9 --029.9 --144.3
Dc18 06029 1556 4621 12206 07.4 10650 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8 --086.1 --357.2

Ja19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8
Fe19 06625 1424 4477 12526 07.7 11102 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0 +450.3 1483.7
Mr19 06382 1357 4548 12287 07.5 10930 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0 +020.7 +139.3
Ap19 05387 1417 4424 11228 06.9 09811 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7 --390.3 +211.3
My19 05503 1395 4070 10968 06.7 09573 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8 +332.1 +475.0
Jn19 06292 1571 4529 12391 07.5 10820 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4 +832.4 +123.9
Jl 18 06556 1478 4017 12051 07.3 10573 154368 40.5% 259225 164941 63.6


Jl 12 13400 2529 8218 24147 15.4 21618 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3
Ag12 12696 2561 7723 22980 14.8 20419 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7 --598.6 --034.0
Se12 11742 2517 8003 22262 14.4 19745 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6 --087.4 +239.8
Oc12 11741 2433 7768 21942 14.1 19509 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8 +333.6 +445.5
No12 11404 2505 7898 21807 14.1 19302 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5 --432.5 --324.1
MoYr Unem MrgAt InvPT Total Prct SubTtl AcEmpl NtEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% MgLF MgAE


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.
This color highlights Actually Employed figures which have not recovered from a prior high count.
This color highlights growth of Civilian noninstitutional Population over 3 Million, 18 years after relevant births.


Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.

For February 2019 the surge in the Marginal Actual Fully Employed Rate is likely mostly due to the return to work following the end of the Pelosi Shutdown of Government, and partly due to the Census adjustment of Civilian noninstitutional Population - the denominator.
For the July 2019 data: I think I will discontinue updating this table starting next month. I think that the data I was trying to illustrate with this table is better demonstrated in Table JSF-URF-6.

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Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



The shadowstats site is lean on actual data, requiring a subscription to access what it claims as database.
However, I will make attempt to add in some of the data it presents. This does make assumption that their methodology and counting methods are valid, which I cannot find clear information about.
There also may be comingling of Seasonally Adjusted figures from shadowstats without clarity, but this will be the only series of Tables I post which veer from Not Seasonally Adjusted figures.

The charts they present do show that Unemployment under Trump is better than any time under Obamanomics, so it may be a worthwhile endeavor to investigate.




I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-5


I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.


The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is the sum of the Unemployed plus Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-time. 4th column is the Rate for column 3 figure. The Rates in columns 2 and 4 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 5th column is the Civilian Population. 6th column is Labor Force, 7th column is Participation Rate. 8th column is the published U-6 figure.
The 9th column is the Real Unemployment figure, as presented by shadowstats. The 10th column is the underreported, the difference between the U-6 figure from BLS and the Real figure from shadowstats.

Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6% Real Separation
Ja93 09911 07.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0 12% 15.3% 2.3%
Ja95 08101 06.2 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1 10% 13.5% 3.5%
Ja96 08270 06.3 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8% 13.5% 2.7%
Ja97 07933 05.9 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4% 13% 2.6%
Ja98 07069 05.2 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3% 12% 2.7%
Ja99 06604 04.8 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5% 11.5% 3.0%
Ja00 06316 04.5 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8% 11% 3.2%
Ja01 06647 04.7 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1% 10.5% 2.4%
Ja02 08935 06.3 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%

Ja02 09051 06.3 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%
Ja03 09395 06.5 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0% 13% 2.0%
Ja04 09144 06.3 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9% 14% 3.1%
Ja05 08444 05.7 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2% 13% 2.8%
Ja06 07608 05.1 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2% 12% 2.8%
Ja07 07649 05.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1% 12% 2.9%
Ja08 08221 05.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9% 13% 3.1%
Ja09 13009 08.5 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4% 20% 4.6%
Ja10 16147 10.6 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0% 22% 4.0%
Ja11 14937 09.8 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3% 22.5% 5.2%
Ja12 13541 08.8 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2% 22.5% 6.3%
Ja13 13181 08.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4% 23% 7.6%
Ja14 10855 07.0 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5% 23.5% 10%
Ja15 09498 06.1 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0% 23.5% 11.5%
Ja16 08309 05.3 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5% 23% 12.5%
Ja17 08149 05.1 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1% 23% 12.9%
Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%


Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Fb18 07091 04.4 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6% 21.9% 13.3%
Mr18 06671 04.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1% 21.8% 13.7%
Ap18 05932 03.7 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4% 21.5% 14.1%
My18 05657 03.6 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3% 21.4% 14.1%
Jn18 06812 04.2 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1% 21.5% 13.4%
J l 18 06730 04.1 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9% 21.3% 13.4%
Au18 06370 03.9 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4% 21.2% 13.8%
Se18 05766 03.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1% 21.3% 14.2%
Oc18 05771 03.5 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0% 21.2% 14.2%
Nv18 05650 03.5 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2% 21.4% 14.2%
Dc18 06029 03.7 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5% 21.4% 13.9%

Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%
Fe19 06625 04.1 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7% 21.1% 13.4%
Mr19 06382 03.9 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5% 21.2% 13.7%
Ap19 05387 03.3 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9% 21.2% 14.3%
My19 05503 03.4 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7% 21.1% 14.4%
Jn19 06292 03.8 12392 07.5 259037 164120 63.4 07.5% 21.2% 13.7%
J l 19 06556 04.0 12051 07.3 259225 164941 63.6 07.3%


J l 12 13400 08.6 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

A key factor that shadowstats points out is that the feeder category, the category which generates the discrepancy between BLS Fiction and reality, is the Marginally Attached. When Obamanomics doubled this figure, it was able to permanently exclude these Unemployed from the stats for the remainder of the Obamanomics Stagnation Extended Recession.
It was much more difficult for Obama to expell his victims from the BLS rolls around 2011 when Unemployment was so bad there were Extended Benefits, (so applicants were required to document work searches before getting Unemployment Insurance Payments) - and this part of the Work Force could not be deleted from the Labor Force until they stopped documenting their search for work.


The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure since the Redefining of 1994 (which shadowstats states was to cover up the Losses of Employment from NAFTA). It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.


The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
The Shadowstats figure for Jan 2019 shows the difference (bloat) is less than the prior Jan figure, for the first time since 2010.
So I assume this would mean that the bloat of Long-term Unemployed is being chipped away by Trump. Either by re-employment or transition to Retirement age, or both.
But this extra 9% of the Population that Obamanomics forced to Unemployment can now be whittled away and not expanded by default, only by actions such as the 2018 Elections.
For the July 2019 report, while updating this post I waited too long, and can no longer access the Shadow Stats data. I should be able to catch it next month, when the data for August is released.

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Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:47 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which breaks down the numerical changes in the key figures.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-6

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.


The 1st column is Labor Force minus both Unemployed and Involuntary Part-Time. This is also Employed minus Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 2nd column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 3rd column is the Civilian Population. 4th column is Labor Force, 5th column is Participation Rate.

After the separation bar, the 7th column is the Increase in Civilian Population from the previous entry. For the entries by year, this is the 12 month Increase. For the entries broken down by month, this is the 1 month Increase.
The 8th column is the Increase in Labor Force from the previous entry.
The 9th column is the Increase in Actually Fully Employed count, from the previous entry.

In the monthly breakdown for 2018, after the second separation bar, the 10th column is the Civilian Population Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 11th column is the Labor Force Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 12th column is the Actually Fully Employed Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 13th column is the amount that the 12th column exceeds the 10th column, or the amount of Unemployed that is being chipped away, despite manipulation of other figures.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | CPIn LFIn AEInc
Jan94 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0% |
Jan95 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1% | 1800 1305 02985/+1185
Jan96 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8% | 1881 0698 01100/-0781
Jan97 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4% | 2651 2921 03023/+0372
Jan98 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6% | 1953 1634 02752/+0799
Jan99 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7% | 2481 1992 02896/+0415
Jan00 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9% | 2063 1678 02256/+0193
Jan01 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9% | 2107 1428 00893/-1214
Jan02 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2% | 2200 0025 -2953/-5153

Jan02 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2% | 5617 2179 -1119/-6736
Jan03 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1% | 3391 2073 01179/-2212
Jan04 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7% | 2264 0767 00869/-1395
Jan05 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4% | 2676 1057 02116/-0560
Jan06 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5% | 2716 1965 03090/+0374
Jan07 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9% | 3097 2834 02677/-0420
Jan08 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7% | 1966 0904 -0283/-2249
Jan09 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4% | 2123 0617 -7611/-9734
Jan10 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6% | 2093 -488 -4112/-6205
Jan11 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9% | 1872 -421 00923/-0949
Jan12 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4% | 3565 0949 02625/-0940
Jan13 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3% | 2394 1309 01910/-0484
Jan14 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5% | 2252 -413 02802/+0550
Jan15 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5% | 2808 1669 03518/+0710
Jan16 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3% | 2664 1297 03377/+0713
Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% | 1685 1329 01596/-0089
Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 2698 1361 03068/+0370
Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% | 1459 2067 01953/+0494


Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% |
Feb17 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7% | 164 00806 01495
Mar17 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9% | 168 00430 01230
Apr17 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8% | 174 -0095 00147
My 17 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8% | 179 00162 00141
Jun17 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3% | 190 01358 00119
Jul17 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5% | 194 00574 00508
Aug17 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0% | 206 -1048 -0594
Sep17 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0% | 205 00186 01307
Oct17 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7% | 204 -0584 -0026
Nov17 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7% | 183 00001 -0101
Dec17 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4% | 160 -0586 -1016

Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 671 00157 -1142 | 2698 1361 3068 +370
Feb18 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9% | 154 01457 01694 | 2688 2012 3267 +579
Mar18 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8% | 163 00054 00740 | 2681 1636 2777 +096
Apr18 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7% | 175 -0268 00815 | 2684 1463 2445 -239
My 18 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8% | 182 00485 00714 | 2687 1786 3028 +341
Jun18 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4% | 188 01512 00060 | 2685 1940 2959 +274
Jul18 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5% | 201 00457 00812 | 2692 1823 3262 +570
Aug18 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7% | 223 -1825 -1027 | 2709 1046 2830 +121
Sep18 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7% | 224 00049 00678 | 2341 0909 2201 -140
Oct18 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9% | 224 00765 00829 | 2748 2218 3056 +308
Nov18 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9% | 194 -0058 -0280 | 2759 2199 2877 +118
Dec18 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8% | 180 -0155 -0643 | 2779 2630 3250 +471

Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% |-649 -0406 -2439 | 1459 2067 1953 +494
Feb19 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0% | 153 00689 02270 | 1458 1299 2529 1071
Mar19 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0% | 145 00030 00202 | 1440 1275 1991 +551
Apr19 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7% | 156 -0726 00393 | 1421 0817 1569 +148
May19 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8% | 168 00558 00796 | 1407 0890 1651 +244
Jun19 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4% | 176 01465 00218 | 1395 0843 1809 +414
Jul19 154368 40.5% 259225 164941 63.6% | 188 00821 01068 | 1382 1207 2065 +683

Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | CPIn LFIn AEInc |
Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | \SincLastMonth/ | \SinceLastYear/


Jul12 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3 |
Aug12 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7 | 212 -1271 -0072
Sep12 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6 | 206 -0180 00494
Oct12 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8 | 211 00704 00940
Nov12 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5 | 191 -1174 -0619

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:


The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. Except possibly 2010, 2011, 2016.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 2nd column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

I am really impressed with how well this Table 6 presents the data.

The problem of data manipulation is driven by the desire for Fake Headlines. I have attempted to circumvent the Fake Data by looking at it in a way which avoids the manipulations.
I don't feel the Civilian noninstitutional Population is easily manipulated or faked, and I have not heard claims of such. This could be thought of as birthing rates, just delayed by 16-18 years until chillen are job-ready.
I also don't feel that the count of who is actually Employed is being consistently faked or manipulated - what would be the point of any of that? Both Full-Time and Voluntary Part-Time would apply here. Why would either employers or employees lie about that?
The figure which is fiddled and manipulated mostly seems to be how many are "Unemployed" and, therefore, the "Labor Force" figure. I do not argue that. But this Table presents data circumventing that manipulation.
Other manipulating and faking occur with "Seasonally Adjusted" counts and calculations, which the Shadow Stats site comments on a lot. I have been avoiding these numbers in this thread, using only non-adjusted figures. However, this does allow fluctuations of different months and seasons to show up, and can be more difficult to filter and interpret, and interpolate.

For the yearly January counts, the table shows the Increase of the Civilian Population, and also the Increase of the Actually Fully Employed, compared to the count 12 months prior.
For the monthly breakdowns, the first sets show the Increase from the month before.
But for the breakdown of 2018 months, the second sets show the Increase from the prior same month, 12 months before. This is a figure which ignores Seasonal variations, because last year the same month was in the same season. Also, these figures can be compared to the historical trend, because all of these figures are on a 12-month scale.

By this method, we can clearly see that in the past 12 months, only 2 months (April and September) had an Increase in Actually Fully Employed which was less than the Increase in Civilian Population.
This shows that for 10 of the months, the AE Increase was greater than the CivPop Increase! Meaning that for every single fresh newly added Civilian, there was a job to absorb them, AND also additional jobs to suck out more workers from the "Unemployed" cloud, no matter how they were categorized. That means that the job growth is certainly chipping away at the portion of Labor Force which is non Employed, or not Fully Employed.
To be clear: to maintain Par, the Actually Fully Employed Increase would only need to keep pace with the Increase of Labor Force - which is less than 2/3 of the Civilian Population. But the AE Inc is not only blowing past that Par figure, it is even exceeding the raw count of the full Civilian noninstitutional Population Increase! In February and July it was a half million more, even with a reportedly tight labor market.
This is seen as the last column being a greater number than the third-to-last column.

And even the stated Labor Force Increase over 12 months prior (second to last column) is a positive number every month this year, no losses.

I hope this makes sense.
I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.

This does help show a consistent trend for the year, and can predict that next month (Jan 2019) will show an improvement in the Labor Force Participation Rate, about 0.5% higher than January 2018.

I guess that last statement could be considered a prediction, which was proven True.
For March 2019: from Jan 2018 to Jan 2019 the Actual Fully Employed figure increased by almost a half million beyond the total increase in Civilian noninstitutional Population. Meaning not only every additional person added to the available Population, but an additional half million who were previously in an unemployed or underemployed category.
For the months Jan-Mar 2018, the average was 348,000 (compared to the same month, prior year).
For the months Jan-Mar 2019, the average is 705,000.
For April 2019: For the months Jan-Apr 2018, the average was 202,000.
For the months Jan-Apr 2019, the average was 566,000.
For June 2019, that final column shows 9 consecutive months without a negative.
The average for that figure from Jan-Jun 2018 was 274, and same for 2019 is 487. At this pace, it seems that by Aug or Sep the Involutary Part-Time will be lower than any January figure, and the Not Fully Employed will be the lowest since the start of the Rock-The-Vote Recession, and the U6 will be even lower than the past few months.
For July 2019: this is now 10 straight months of plusses in that final column.

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Friday, August 9, 2019 5:31 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA - 2 week avg 212,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.

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Thursday, August 15, 2019 7:28 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Today's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA - 3 week avg 215,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.


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Wednesday, August 28, 2019 5:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA
209,000 22 August SA - 4 week avg 213,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.



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Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:08 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last today's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA
209,000 22 August SA
215,000 29 August SA - 5 week avg 214,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.




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Friday, September 6, 2019 5:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with yesterday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA
209,000 22 August SA
215,000 29 August SA - 5 week avg 214,000.
217,000 5 September SA


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.

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Friday, September 6, 2019 5:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report data:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-1

Jan 2002 is listed twice. First with original report data from February 2002. Second with revised data from new Census data, published in February 2003.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BLS currently defines the Want A Job category as not being part of the Labor Force.

So I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.


Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6
Jan98 07069 05.2% 5026 3.7% 12095 08.9% 4090 3.0% 16185 11.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 04.8% 4800 3.5% 11404 08.3% 3645 2.6% 15049 10.9% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 04.5% 4354 3.1% 10670 07.6% 3355 2.4% 14025 10.0% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 04.7% 4474 3.2% 11121 07.9% 3559 2.5% 14680 10.4% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 06.3% 4872 3.5% 13807 09.8% 4249 3.0% 18056 12.8% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 06.3% 4938 3.4% 13989 09.8% 4453 3.1% 18442 12.9% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 06.5% 4779 3.3% 14174 09.8% 5003 3.4% 19177 13.2% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 06.3% 4913 3.4% 14057 09.6% 5152 3.5% 19209 13.2% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 05.7% 5136 3.5% 13580 09.2% 4793 3.3% 18373 12.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 05.1% 5095 3.4% 12703 08.5% 4513 3.0% 17216 11.5% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 05.0% 4633 3.0% 12282 08.1% 4620 3.0% 16902 11.1% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 05.4% 4977 3.2% 13198 08.6% 5235 3.5% 18433 12.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 08.5% 5866 3.8% 18875 12.3% 8675 5.7% 27550 18.0% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 10.6% 6108 4.0% 22255 14.6% 9161 5.9% 31416 20.5% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 09.8% 6643 4.3% 21580 14.1% 9027 6.0% 30607 20.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 08.8% 6495 4.3% 20036 13.1% 8747 5.7% 28783 18.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 08.5% 6781 4.4% 19962 12.9% 8506 5.5% 28468 18.4% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 07.0% 6508 4.2% 17363 11.2% 7617 5.0% 24980 16.2% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 06.1% 6467 4.1% 15965 10.2% 7125 4.6% 23090 14.8% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 05.3% 6166 3.9% 14475 09.2% 6234 4.0% 20709 13.2% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 05.1% 5934 3.8% 14083 08.9% 6127 3.8% 20210 12.7% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 04.4% 5152 3.2% 12243 07.6% 5241 3.2% 17484 10.8% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 04.1% 4793 3.0% 11464 07.1% 4975 3.1% 16439 10.2% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 03.7% 5010 3.1% 10942 06.8% 4631 2.9% 15573 09.7% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
May18 05657 03.6% 5696 3.5% 11353 07.0% 4677 2.9% 16030 09.9% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 04.2% 5654 3.5% 12466 07.6% 4974 3.0% 17440 10.7% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 04.1% 5483 3.3% 12213 07.5% 4701 2.9% 16914 10.3% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 03.9% 5534 3.4% 11904 07.3% 4263 2.6% 16167 09.9% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 03.6% 5070 3.1% 10836 06.7% 4238 2.6% 15074 09.3% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 03.5% 5048 3.1% 10819 06.6% 4169 2.6% 14988 09.2% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nov18 05650 03.5% 5060 3.1% 10710 06.6% 4512 2.8% 15222 09.4% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 03.7% 5121 3.1% 11150 06.8% 4621 2.8% 15771 09.6% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 04.1% 5196 3.2% 11821 07.3% 4477 2.8% 16298 10.0% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 03.9% 4887 3.0% 11269 06.9% 4548 2.8% 15817 09.7% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 03.3% 4951 3.1% 10338 06.4% 4424 2.7% 14762 09.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 03.4% 5500 3.4% 11003 06.8% 4070 2.5% 15073 09.3% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jun19 06292 03.8% 5725 3.5% 12017 07.3% 4529 2.8% 16546 10.1% 259037 164120 63.4 07.5
Jul19 06556 04.0% 5289 3.2% 11845 07.2% 4017 2.4% 15862 09.6% 259225 164941 63.6 07.3
Aug19 06203 03.8% 5331 3.3% 11534 07.0% 4237 2.6% 15771 09.6% 259432 164019 63.2 07.3


Jul12 13400 08.6% 6837 4.3% 20237 12.9% 8218 5.3% 28455 18.2% 243354 156526 64.3 15.2
Aug12 12696 08.2% 7631 4.9% 20327 13.1% 7723 5.0% 28050 18.1% 243566 155255 63.7 14.6
Sep12 11742 07.6% 6427 4.1% 18169 11.7% 8003 5.2% 26172 16.9% 243772 155075 63.6 14.2
Oct12 11741 07.5% 6142 4.0% 17883 11.5% 7768 5.0% 25651 16.5% 243983 155779 63.8 13.9
Nov12 11404 07.4% 6495 4.2% 17899 11.6% 7898 5.0% 25797 16.6% 244174 154953 63.5 13.9
Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.


Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.

Well, it looks like the current U6 right now is lower than every January of the past 24 years, since the creation of U-6, according to BLS figures.

From 2009 to 2017, the Civilian noninstitutional Population grew by 19.343 Million. With a nominal post-9/11 Labor Participation Rate of 66%, the Labor Force would have grown by 12.766 Million. But Obama's Deep State reported that the Labor Force only grew by 5.231 Million. Labor Force is defined as all Employed + all Unemployed. So Obama would have you believe that during his 8 years, 7.5 Million extra Employ-eligible population were NOT unemployed (nor employed).



Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.

For July 2019:
The Involuntary Part-time percent matched the lowest rate on the table, from 2000. And the Participation Rate hit another high point following Obama.

July and August both have the highest number of Employed in history.

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Friday, September 6, 2019 5:31 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report to this Table of Data, which seems to best show the components of U6:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-2

Note: this year the Marginally Attached data is in Table A-16 of the report.
Quote:

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. For example, the current Rate of 4.1% (for 4 months straight) is SeasAdj, and the real Rate is 4.5% for Jan 2018. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category. The 5th column is the sum of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached - which more accurately represents the Actual Unemployed. The 6th column is the Rate for column 5 figure.
The 7th column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 8th column is the Rate for column 7. The 9th column is the sum of the 5th column plus 7th column. 10th column is the Rate for column 9 figure. The Rates in columns 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 11th column is the Civilian Population. 12th column is Labor Force, 13th column is Participation Rate. 14th column is the published U-6 figure.


Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unemp Pct MrgAt Pct SbTtl Pct InvPT Pct Total Pcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U6%
Ja93 09911 07.9 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 6181 4.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 2120 1.6 11612 09.0 4963 3.8 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0
Ja95 08101 06.2 1783 1.4 09884 07.6 4620 3.5 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1
Ja96 08270 06.3 1737 1.3 10007 07.6 4103 3.1 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Ja97 07933 05.9 1615 1.2 09548 07.1 4338 3.2 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Ja98 07069 05.2 1479 1.1 08548 06.3 4090 3.0 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Ja99 06604 04.8 1358 1.0 07962 05.8 3645 2.6 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Ja00 06316 04.5 1197 0.9 07513 05.4 3355 2.4 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Ja01 06647 04.7 1290 0.9 07937 05.6 3559 2.5 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Ja02 08935 06.3 1509 1.1 10444 07.4 4249 3.0 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Ja02 09051 06.3 1532 1.1 10583 07.4 4453 3.1 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Ja03 09395 06.5 1598 1.1 10993 07.6 5003 3.4 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Ja04 09144 06.3 1670 1.1 10814 07.4 5152 3.5 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Ja05 08444 05.7 1804 1.2 10248 07.0 4793 3.3 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Ja06 07608 05.1 1644 1.1 09252 06.2 4513 3.0 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Ja07 07649 05.0 1577 1.0 09226 06.1 4620 3.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Ja08 08221 05.4 1729 1.1 09950 06.5 5235 3.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Ja09 13009 08.5 2130 1.4 15139 09.9 8675 5.6 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Ja10 16147 10.6 2539 1.6 18686 12.2 9161 6.0 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Ja11 14937 09.8 2800 1.8 17737 11.6 9027 5.9 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Ja12 13541 08.8 2809 1.9 16350 10.7 8747 5.7 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Ja13 13181 08.5 2443 1.6 15624 10.1 8506 5.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Ja14 10855 07.0 2592 1.7 13447 08.7 7617 4.9 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Ja15 09498 06.1 2234 1.4 11732 07.5 7125 4.6 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Ja16 08309 05.3 2089 1.3 10398 06.6 6234 4.0 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Ja17 08149 05.1 1752 1.1 09901 06.2 6127 3.9 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Ja18 07189 04.5 1653 1.0 08842 05.5 5380 3.4 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Fb18 07091 04.4 1602 1.0 08693 05.4 5241 3.2 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mr18 06671 04.1 1454 0.9 08125 05.0 4975 3.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Ap18 05932 03.7 1362 0.8 07294 04.5 4631 2.9 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My18 05657 03.6 1455 0.9 07112 04.4 4677 2.9 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jn18 06812 04.2 1437 0.9 08249 05.1 4974 3.0 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jl18 06730 04.1 1498 0.9 08228 05.0 4701 2.9 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Au18 06370 03.9 1443 0.9 07813 04.8 4263 2.6 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Se18 05766 03.6 1577 1.0 07343 04.5 4238 2.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oc18 05771 03.5 1491 0.9 07262 04.5 4169 2.6 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nv18 05650 03.5 1678 1.0 07328 04.5 4512 2.8 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dc18 06029 03.7 1556 0.9 07585 04.6 4621 2.8 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Ja19 07140 04.4 1614 1.0 08754 05.4 5543 3.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Fe19 06625 04.1 1424 0.9 08049 04.9 4477 2.8 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mr19 06382 03.9 1357 0.8 07739 04.8 4548 2.8 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Ap19 05387 03.3 1417 0.9 06804 04.2 4424 2.7 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
My19 05503 03.4 1395 0.9 06898 04.2 4070 2.5 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jn19 06292 03.8 1571 1.0 07863 04.8 4529 2.8 12392 07.5 259037 164120 63.4 07.5
Jl19 06556 04.0 1478 0.9 08034 04.9 4017 2.4 12051 07.3 259225 164941 63.6 07.3
Au19 06203 03.8 1564 1.0 07767 04.7 4237 2.6 12004 07.3 259432 164019 63.2 07.3


Jl12 13400 08.6 2529 1.6 15929 10.2 8218 5.2 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 2561 1.6 15257 09.8 7723 5.0 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 2517 1.6 14259 09.2 8003 5.2 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 2433 1.6 14174 09.1 7768 5.0 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 2505 1.6 13909 09.0 7898 5.1 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure. It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
By 2016 the Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time counts were more than the Fake Unemployment count.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.
For March 2019, the Marginally Attached raw count is the lowest since Jan 2001, and the percentage of 0.8 is the lowest on the table.
Comparing to March 2018, the U-3 is 0.2% less, the Marginally Attached is 0.1% less, the Involuntary Part-Time is 0.3% less, and the U-6 is 0.6% less.
Most of the time, the April U-6 drops about 0.8%, so next month we'll likely see record low numbers across the board.

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Friday, September 6, 2019 5:31 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which includes Not Fully Employed Rate.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-3

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.

The 1st column of numbers is the Unemployed.
The 2nd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category.
The 3rd column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 4th column of numbers is the sum of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd columns. 5th column is the Rate for column 4 figure, divided by Labor Force.

The 6th column of numbers is the Subtotal of columns 1 and 3, Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time.
The 7th column is Labor Force minus column 6. This is also Employed minus column 3 Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 8th column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 9th column is the Civilian Population. 10th column is Labor Force, 11th column is Participation Rate. 12th column is the published U-6 figure.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%
Jan94 09492 2120 4963 16575 12.8 14455 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0
Jan95 08101 1783 4620 14504 11.1 12721 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1
Jan96 08270 1737 4103 14110 10.7 12373 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8 10.8
Jan97 07933 1615 4338 13886 10.3 12271 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4 10.4
Jan98 07069 1479 4090 12638 09.3 11159 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 1358 3645 11607 08.4 10249 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 1197 3355 10868 07.8 09671 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 1290 3559 11496 08.2 10206 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 1509 4249 14693 10.4 13184 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 1532 4453 15036 10.5 13504 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 1598 5003 15996 11.0 14398 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 1670 5152 15966 10.9 14296 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 1804 4793 15041 10.2 13237 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 1644 4513 13765 09.2 12122 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 1577 4620 13846 09.1 12269 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 1729 5235 15185 09.9 13456 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 2130 8675 23814 15.5 21684 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 2539 9161 27847 18.2 25308 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 2800 9027 26764 17.5 23964 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 2809 8747 25097 16.4 22288 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 2443 8506 24130 15.6 21687 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 2592 7617 21064 13.6 18472 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 2234 7125 18857 12.1 16623 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 2089 6234 16632 10.6 14543 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan17 08149 1752 6127 16028 10.1 14276 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Feb17 07887 1723 5700 15310 09.6 13587 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7 09.5
Mar17 07289 1595 5498 14381 09.0 12787 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9 08.9
Apr17 06555 1534 4990 13079 08.2 11545 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8 08.1
My 17 06572 1475 4994 13041 08.2 11566 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8 08.1
Jun17 07250 1582 5555 14387 08.9 12805 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3 08.9
Jul17 07441 1629 5430 14500 09.0 12871 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5 08.9
Aug17 07287 1548 5130 13965 08.7 12417 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0 08.6
Sep17 06556 1569 4740 12865 08.0 11296 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0 08.0
Oct17 06242 1535 4496 12273 07.6 10738 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7 07.6
Nov17 06286 1481 4554 12321 07.7 10840 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7 07.7
Dec17 06278 1623 4992 12893 08.1 11270 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4 08.0

Jan18 07189 1653 5380 14222 08.9 12569 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 1602 5241 13934 08.6 12332 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 1454 4975 13100 08.1 11646 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 1362 4631 11925 07.4 10563 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
My 18 05657 1455 4677 11789 07.3 10334 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 1437 4974 13223 08.1 11786 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 1498 4701 12929 07.9 11431 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 1443 4263 12076 07.4 10633 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 1577 4238 11581 07.2 10004 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 1491 4169 11431 07.0 09940 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0

Nov18 05650 1678 4512 11840 07.3 10162 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 1556 4621 12206 07.4 10650 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 1614 5543 14297 08.8 12683 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 1424 4477 12526 07.7 11102 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 1357 4548 12287 07.5 10930 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 1417 4424 11228 06.9 09811 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 1395 4070 10968 06.7 09573 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jun19 06292 1571 4529 12391 07.5 10820 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4 07.5
Jul19 06556 1478 4017 12051 07.3 10573 154368 40.5% 259225 164941 63.6 07.3
Aug19 06203 1564 4237 12004 07.3 10440 153579 40.8% 259432 164019 63.2 07.3

Mo/Yr Unem MrgAt InvPT Totl Prct SbTtl AcEmpl NotEm CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6%


Jul12 13400 2529 8218 24147 15.4 21618 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3
Aug12 12696 2561 7723 22980 14.8 20419 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7
Sep12 11742 2517 8003 22262 14.4 19745 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6
Oct12 11741 2433 7768 21942 14.1 19509 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8
Nov12 11404 2505 7898 21807 14.1 19302 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.


Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018.

The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.


The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 8th column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working, and compare to other periods since U-6 was created. These 2 figures help show how the Labor Force Participation Rate and U-6 realistically work together.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

One comparison of note for July 2018: in the past 2 months (since schools were in session), the Labor Force has increased by almost 2 million, but the sums of Unemployed and Involuntary Part-time have only increased 1.1 million. This means that about 900,000 of fresh schooling products have been absorbed by the demand from employers, in only 2 months.
For February 2019, not much spectacular is shown. Mostly a return of most figures to the trends present in the December figures, which were prior to the Pelosi Shutdown of Government.
Of some interest is that this indicates that the January U-6 figure without the Pelosi Shutdown would have been about 8.0%. Since I had chosen to use January as the annual snapshot representation of all the years, this leaves this one year a blip out of context. All other Januarys have similar situations and templates, and 2019 has no similar comparison.
This 8.0% realistic comparison figure would have been the 2nd best on the table, behind 7.8% in 2000.
One thing I had not continued to noticed before. After Obamanomics was able to get the total of Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time higher than the U-3 Unemployment Rate by Jan 2016, Trump was able to keep that balance reversed until Oct 2018, except for Dec 2017. The U-3 is the larger, more stable and consistent of all the subcomponents of the U-6, and the other 2 are just bloated from Obamanomics.
Following the 2018 Midterm Elections, this balanced switched again for Nov, Dec, Jan. But now for Feb and March, the balance is restored and the subtotal is lower than the Unemployment Rate.

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Friday, September 6, 2019 5:31 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



The shadowstats site is lean on actual data, requiring a subscription to access what it claims as database.
However, I will make attempt to add in some of the data it presents. This does make assumption that their methodology and counting methods are valid, which I cannot find clear information about.
There also may be comingling of Seasonally Adjusted figures from shadowstats without clarity, but this will be the only series of Tables I post which veer from Not Seasonally Adjusted figures.

The charts they present do show that Unemployment under Trump is better than any time under Obamanomics, so it may be a worthwhile endeavor to investigate.




I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-5


I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.


The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate.
The 3rd column is the sum of the Unemployed plus Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-time. 4th column is the Rate for column 3 figure. The Rates in columns 2 and 4 have the denominator of Labor Force.
The 5th column is the Civilian Population. 6th column is Labor Force, 7th column is Participation Rate. 8th column is the published U-6 figure.
The 9th column is the Real Unemployment figure, as presented by shadowstats. The 10th column is the underreported, the difference between the U-6 figure from BLS and the Real figure from shadowstats.

Figures in thousands.

MoYr Unem Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrForc Prtc% U6% Real Separation
Ja93 09911 07.9 16575 12.8 192644 126034 65.4
Ja94 09492 07.3 16575 12.8 195953 129393 66.0 12% 15.3% 2.3%
Ja95 08101 06.2 14504 11.1 197753 130698 66.1 10% 13.5% 3.5%
Ja96 08270 06.3 14110 10.7 199634 131396 65.8 10.8% 13.5% 2.7%
Ja97 07933 05.9 13886 10.3 202285 134317 66.4 10.4% 13% 2.6%
Ja98 07069 05.2 12638 09.3 204238 135951 66.6 09.3% 12% 2.7%
Ja99 06604 04.8 11607 08.4 206719 137943 66.7 08.5% 11.5% 3.0%
Ja00 06316 04.5 10868 07.8 208782 139621 66.9 07.8% 11% 3.2%
Ja01 06647 04.7 11496 08.2 210889 141049 66.9 08.1% 10.5% 2.4%
Ja02 08935 06.3 14693 10.4 213089 141074 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%

Ja02 09051 06.3 15036 10.5 216506 143228 66.2 10.5% 13% 2.5%
Ja03 09395 06.5 15996 11.0 219897 145301 66.1 11.0% 13% 2.0%
Ja04 09144 06.3 15966 10.9 222161 146068 65.7 10.9% 14% 3.1%
Ja05 08444 05.7 15041 10.2 224837 147125 65.4 10.2% 13% 2.8%
Ja06 07608 05.1 13765 09.2 227553 149090 65.5 09.2% 12% 2.8%
Ja07 07649 05.0 13846 09.1 230650 151924 65.9 09.1% 12% 2.9%
Ja08 08221 05.4 15185 09.9 232616 152828 65.7 09.9% 13% 3.1%
Ja09 13009 08.5 23814 15.5 234739 153445 65.4 15.4% 20% 4.6%
Ja10 16147 10.6 27847 18.2 236832 152957 64.6 18.0% 22% 4.0%
Ja11 14937 09.8 26764 17.5 238704 152536 63.9 17.3% 22.5% 5.2%
Ja12 13541 08.8 25097 16.4 242269 153485 63.4 16.2% 22.5% 6.3%
Ja13 13181 08.5 24130 15.6 244663 154794 63.3 15.4% 23% 7.6%
Ja14 10855 07.0 21064 13.6 246915 154381 62.5 13.5% 23.5% 10%
Ja15 09498 06.1 18857 12.1 249723 156050 62.5 12.0% 23.5% 11.5%
Ja16 08309 05.3 16632 10.6 252397 157347 62.3 10.5% 23% 12.5%
Ja17 08149 05.1 16028 10.1 254082 158676 62.5 10.1% 23% 12.9%
Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%


Ja18 07189 04.5 14222 08.9 256780 160037 62.3 08.9% 22% 13.1%
Fb18 07091 04.4 13934 08.6 256934 161494 62.9 08.6% 21.9% 13.3%
Mr18 06671 04.1 13100 08.1 257097 161548 62.8 08.1% 21.8% 13.7%
Ap18 05932 03.7 11925 07.4 257272 161280 62.7 07.4% 21.5% 14.1%
My18 05657 03.6 11789 07.3 257454 161765 62.8 07.3% 21.4% 14.1%
Jn18 06812 04.2 13223 08.1 257642 163277 63.4 08.1% 21.5% 13.4%
J l 18 06730 04.1 12929 07.9 257843 163734 63.5 07.9% 21.3% 13.4%
Au18 06370 03.9 12076 07.4 258066 161909 62.7 07.4% 21.2% 13.8%
Se18 05766 03.6 11581 07.2 258290 161958 62.7 07.1% 21.3% 14.2%
Oc18 05771 03.5 11431 07.0 258514 162723 62.9 07.0% 21.2% 14.2%
Nv18 05650 03.5 11840 07.3 258708 162665 62.9 07.2% 21.4% 14.2%
Dc18 06029 03.7 12206 07.4 258888 162510 62.8 07.5% 21.4% 13.9%

Ja19 07140 04.4 14297 08.8 258239 162104 62.8 08.8% 21.8% 13.0%
Fe19 06625 04.1 12526 07.7 258392 162793 63.0 07.7% 21.1% 13.4%
Mr19 06382 03.9 12287 07.5 258537 162823 63.0 07.5% 21.2% 13.7%
Ap19 05387 03.3 11228 06.9 258693 162097 62.7 06.9% 21.2% 14.3%
My19 05503 03.4 10968 06.7 258861 162655 62.8 06.7% 21.1% 14.4%
Jn19 06292 03.8 12392 07.5 259037 164120 63.4 07.5% 21.2% 13.7%
J l 19 06556 04.0 12051 07.3 259225 164941 63.6 07.3% 21.0% 13.7%
Au19 06203 03.8 12004 07.3 259432 164019 63.2 07.3% 21.2% 13.9%


J l 12 13400 08.6 24147 15.4 243354 156526 64.3
Au12 12696 08.2 22980 14.8 243566 155255 63.7
Se12 11742 07.6 22262 14.4 243772 155075 63.6
Oc12 11741 07.5 21942 14.1 243983 155779 63.8
Nv12 11404 07.4 21807 14.1 244174 154953 63.5


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:

Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935.
The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression.

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.

A key factor that shadowstats points out is that the feeder category, the category which generates the discrepancy between BLS Fiction and reality, is the Marginally Attached. When Obamanomics doubled this figure, it was able to permanently exclude these Unemployed from the stats for the remainder of the Obamanomics Stagnation Extended Recession.
It was much more difficult for Obama to expell his victims from the BLS rolls around 2011 when Unemployment was so bad there were Extended Benefits, (so applicants were required to document work searches before getting Unemployment Insurance Payments) - and this part of the Work Force could not be deleted from the Labor Force until they stopped documenting their search for work.


The figure of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure since the Redefining of 1994 (which shadowstats states was to cover up the Losses of Employment from NAFTA). It does not return to Jan 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. For April 2018 this figure is lower than any January figure since it was created in 1994.


The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018.
The Shadowstats figure for Jan 2019 shows the difference (bloat) is less than the prior Jan figure, for the first time since 2010.
So I assume this would mean that the bloat of Long-term Unemployed is being chipped away by Trump. Either by re-employment or transition to Retirement age, or both.
But this extra 9% of the Population that Obamanomics forced to Unemployment can now be whittled away and not expanded by default, only by actions such as the 2018 Elections.
For the July 2019 report, while updating this post I waited too long, and can no longer access the Shadow Stats data. I should be able to catch it next month, when the data for August is released.

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Friday, September 6, 2019 5:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This Table of Data, which breaks down the numerical changes in the key figures.

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-6

I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow.

The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.

Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format.


The 1st column is Labor Force minus both Unemployed and Involuntary Part-Time. This is also Employed minus Involuntary Part-Time. This is not a figure identified by BLS, so I will call it Actually Fully Employed. This is Employed Full-time plus Voluntary Part-Time.

Not listed, but Civilian noninstitutional Population minus Actually Fully Employed is also a figure avoided by BLS, and I will call it Not Fully Employed, which is Unemployed plus Involuntary Part-Time plus Marginally Attached plus Not In Labor Force. The 2nd column is Not Fully Employed Rate, which is divided by Civilian noninstitutional Population.

The 3rd column is the Civilian Population. 4th column is Labor Force, 5th column is Participation Rate.

After the separation bar, the 7th column is the Increase in Civilian Population from the previous entry. For the entries by year, this is the 12 month Increase. For the entries broken down by month, this is the 1 month Increase.
The 8th column is the Increase in Labor Force from the previous entry.
The 9th column is the Increase in Actually Fully Employed count, from the previous entry.

In the monthly breakdown for 2018, after the second separation bar, the 10th column is the Civilian Population Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 11th column is the Labor Force Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 12th column is the Actually Fully Employed Increase from the entry 12 months prior.
The 13th column is the amount that the 12th column exceeds the 10th column, or the amount of Unemployed that is being chipped away, despite manipulation of other figures.

Figures in thousands.

Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | CPIn LFIn AEInc
Jan94 114938 41.3% 195953 129393 66.0% |
Jan95 117923 40.4% 197753 130698 66.1% | 1800 1305 02985/+1185
Jan96 119023 40.4% 199634 131396 65.8% | 1881 0698 01100/-0781
Jan97 122046 39.7% 202285 134317 66.4% | 2651 2921 03023/+0372
Jan98 124798 38.9% 204238 135951 66.6% | 1953 1634 02752/+0799
Jan99 127694 38.2% 206719 137943 66.7% | 2481 1992 02896/+0415
Jan00 129950 37.8% 208782 139621 66.9% | 2063 1678 02256/+0193
Jan01 130843 38.0% 210889 141049 66.9% | 2107 1428 00893/-1214
Jan02 127890 40.0% 213089 141074 66.2% | 2200 0025 -2953/-5153

Jan02 129724 40.1% 216506 143228 66.2% | 5617 2179 -1119/-6736
Jan03 130903 40.5% 219897 145301 66.1% | 3391 2073 01179/-2212
Jan04 131772 40.7% 222161 146068 65.7% | 2264 0767 00869/-1395
Jan05 133888 40.5% 224837 147125 65.4% | 2676 1057 02116/-0560
Jan06 136978 39.8% 227553 149090 65.5% | 2716 1965 03090/+0374
Jan07 139655 39.5% 230650 151924 65.9% | 3097 2834 02677/-0420
Jan08 139372 40.1% 232616 152828 65.7% | 1966 0904 -0283/-2249
Jan09 131761 43.9% 234739 153445 65.4% | 2123 0617 -7611/-9734
Jan10 127649 46.1% 236832 152957 64.6% | 2093 -488 -4112/-6205
Jan11 128572 46.1% 238704 152536 63.9% | 1872 -421 00923/-0949
Jan12 131197 45.8% 242269 153485 63.4% | 3565 0949 02625/-0940
Jan13 133107 45.6% 244663 154794 63.3% | 2394 1309 01910/-0484
Jan14 135909 45.0% 246915 154381 62.5% | 2252 -413 02802/+0550
Jan15 139427 44.2% 249723 156050 62.5% | 2808 1669 03518/+0710
Jan16 142804 43.4% 252397 157347 62.3% | 2664 1297 03377/+0713
Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% | 1685 1329 01596/-0089
Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 2698 1361 03068/+0370
Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% | 1459 2067 01953/+0494


Jan17 144400 43.2% 254082 158676 62.5% |
Feb17 145895 42.6% 254246 159482 62.7% | 164 00806 01495
Mar17 147125 42.2% 254414 159912 62.9% | 168 00430 01230
Apr17 148272 41.8% 254588 159817 62.8% | 174 -0095 00147
My 17 148413 41.7% 254767 159979 62.8% | 179 00162 00141
Jun17 148532 41.7% 254957 161337 63.3% | 190 01358 00119
Jul17 149040 41.6% 255151 161911 63.5% | 194 00574 00508
Aug17 148446 41.9% 255357 160863 63.0% | 206 -1048 -0594
Sep17 149753 41.4% 255562 161049 63.0% | 205 00186 01307
Oct17 149727 41.5% 255766 160465 62.7% | 204 -0584 -0026
Nov17 149626 41.5% 255949 160466 62.7% | 183 00001 -0101
Dec17 148610 42.0% 256109 159880 62.4% | 160 -0586 -1016

Jan18 147468 42.6% 256780 160037 62.3% | 671 00157 -1142 | 2698 1361 3068 +370
Feb18 149162 41.9% 256934 161494 62.9% | 154 01457 01694 | 2688 2012 3267 +579
Mar18 149902 41.7% 257097 161548 62.8% | 163 00054 00740 | 2681 1636 2777 +096
Apr18 150717 41.4% 257272 161280 62.7% | 175 -0268 00815 | 2684 1463 2445 -239
My 18 151431 41.2% 257454 161765 62.8% | 182 00485 00714 | 2687 1786 3028 +341
Jun18 151491 41.2% 257642 163277 63.4% | 188 01512 00060 | 2685 1940 2959 +274
Jul18 152303 40.9% 257843 163734 63.5% | 201 00457 00812 | 2692 1823 3262 +570
Aug18 151276 41.4% 258066 161909 62.7% | 223 -1825 -1027 | 2709 1046 2830 +121
Sep18 151954 41.2% 258290 161958 62.7% | 224 00049 00678 | 2341 0909 2201 -140
Oct18 152783 40.9% 258514 162723 62.9% | 224 00765 00829 | 2748 2218 3056 +308
Nov18 152503 41.1% 258708 162665 62.9% | 194 -0058 -0280 | 2759 2199 2877 +118
Dec18 151860 41.3% 258888 162510 62.8% | 180 -0155 -0643 | 2779 2630 3250 +471

Jan19 149421 42.1% 258239 162104 62.8% |-649 -0406 -2439 | 1459 2067 1953 +494
Feb19 151691 41.3% 258392 162793 63.0% | 153 00689 02270 | 1458 1299 2529 1071
Mar19 151893 41.2% 258537 162823 63.0% | 145 00030 00202 | 1440 1275 1991 +551
Apr19 152286 41.1% 258693 162097 62.7% | 156 -0726 00393 | 1421 0817 1569 +148
May19 153082 40.9% 258861 162655 62.8% | 168 00558 00796 | 1407 0890 1651 +244
Jun19 153300 40.8% 259037 164120 63.4% | 176 01465 00218 | 1395 0843 1809 +414
Jul19 154368 40.5% 259225 164941 63.6% | 188 00821 01068 | 1382 1207 2065 +683
Aug19 153579 40.8% 259432 164019 63.2% | 207 -0922 -0789 | 1366 2110 2303 +937

Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | CPIn LFIn AEInc |
Mo/Yr AcEmpl NtEm CiviPop LbrFrc Prtc% | \SincLastMonth/ | \SinceLastYear/


Jul12 134908 44.1% 243354 156526 64.3 |
Aug12 134836 44.6% 243566 155255 63.7 | 212 -1271 -0072
Sep12 135330 44.5% 243772 155075 63.6 | 206 -0180 00494
Oct12 136270 44.1% 243983 155779 63.8 | 211 00704 00940
Nov12 135651 44.4% 244174 154953 63.5 | 191 -1174 -0619

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.

Quote:


The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. Except possibly 2010, 2011, 2016.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

Some have mentioned concern regard a tight Labor Market, too many vacant jobs without enough bodies to fill them.
But we should remember to consider the Labor Participation Rate. At the turn of the century it was around 67%, and in the later Bush43 period it was 66%.
Just because Obamanomics was able to drive it down to the 62% range does not mean that is the new norm. That 5% loss of Participation Rate amounts to about 13 Million potential employees.
Sure, they may not need to live in their mom's basement anymore if they become employed, but life can just be rough.


In the previous Tables of data, we can see that as far as common Indicators are concerned, all figures, totals, and Subtotals are at or near all-time lows (since the creation of U-6 in 1994) under Trump. But the categories are still manipulated, and potentially misrepresented.
So to help understand how much of the population is actually not allowed to be Employed Full-time when they want to, I have included in the above Table the 2nd column of numbers, the Not Fully Employed Rate, which is a percentage of the Civilian noninstitutional Population. Because of the much larger denominator this figure will not have such drastic swings as other figures reported. This can help demonstrate how many are still able to fill a "tight Labor Market" which some are worried about. It can also provide an unvarnished picture of how many are not working.

Even with this new figure, it is the lowest since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession, which began October 2007 at the start of FY2008.

I am really impressed with how well this Table 6 presents the data.

The problem of data manipulation is driven by the desire for Fake Headlines. I have attempted to circumvent the Fake Data by looking at it in a way which avoids the manipulations.
I don't feel the Civilian noninstitutional Population is easily manipulated or faked, and I have not heard claims of such. This could be thought of as birthing rates, just delayed by 16-18 years until chillen are job-ready.
I also don't feel that the count of who is actually Employed is being consistently faked or manipulated - what would be the point of any of that? Both Full-Time and Voluntary Part-Time would apply here. Why would either employers or employees lie about that?
The figure which is fiddled and manipulated mostly seems to be how many are "Unemployed" and, therefore, the "Labor Force" figure. I do not argue that. But this Table presents data circumventing that manipulation.
Other manipulating and faking occur with "Seasonally Adjusted" counts and calculations, which the Shadow Stats site comments on a lot. I have been avoiding these numbers in this thread, using only non-adjusted figures. However, this does allow fluctuations of different months and seasons to show up, and can be more difficult to filter and interpret, and interpolate.

For the yearly January counts, the table shows the Increase of the Civilian Population, and also the Increase of the Actually Fully Employed, compared to the count 12 months prior.
For the monthly breakdowns, the first sets show the Increase from the month before.
But for the breakdown of 2018 months, the second sets show the Increase from the prior same month, 12 months before. This is a figure which ignores Seasonal variations, because last year the same month was in the same season. Also, these figures can be compared to the historical trend, because all of these figures are on a 12-month scale.

By this method, we can clearly see that in the past 12 months, only 2 months (April and September) had an Increase in Actually Fully Employed which was less than the Increase in Civilian Population.
This shows that for 10 of the months, the AE Increase was greater than the CivPop Increase! Meaning that for every single fresh newly added Civilian, there was a job to absorb them, AND also additional jobs to suck out more workers from the "Unemployed" cloud, no matter how they were categorized. That means that the job growth is certainly chipping away at the portion of Labor Force which is non Employed, or not Fully Employed.
To be clear: to maintain Par, the Actually Fully Employed Increase would only need to keep pace with the Increase of Labor Force - which is less than 2/3 of the Civilian Population. But the AE Inc is not only blowing past that Par figure, it is even exceeding the raw count of the full Civilian noninstitutional Population Increase! In February and July it was a half million more, even with a reportedly tight labor market.
This is seen as the last column being a greater number than the third-to-last column.

And even the stated Labor Force Increase over 12 months prior (second to last column) is a positive number every month this year, no losses.

I hope this makes sense.
I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.

This does help show a consistent trend for the year, and can predict that next month (Jan 2019) will show an improvement in the Labor Force Participation Rate, about 0.5% higher than January 2018.

I guess that last statement could be considered a prediction, which was proven True.
For March 2019: from Jan 2018 to Jan 2019 the Actual Fully Employed figure increased by almost a half million beyond the total increase in Civilian noninstitutional Population. Meaning not only every additional person added to the available Population, but an additional half million who were previously in an unemployed or underemployed category.
For the months Jan-Mar 2018, the average was 348,000 (compared to the same month, prior year).
For the months Jan-Mar 2019, the average is 705,000.
For April 2019: For the months Jan-Apr 2018, the average was 202,000.
For the months Jan-Apr 2019, the average was 566,000.
For June 2019, that final column shows 9 consecutive months without a negative.
The average for that figure from Jan-Jun 2018 was 274, and same for 2019 is 487. At this pace, it seems that by Aug or Sep the Involutary Part-Time will be lower than any January figure, and the Not Fully Employed will be the lowest since the start of the Rock-The-Vote Recession, and the U6 will be even lower than the past few months.
For July 2019: this is now 10 straight months of plusses in that final column.

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Thursday, September 12, 2019 3:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA
209,000 22 August SA
215,000 29 August SA - 5 week avg 214,000.
217,000 5 September SA
204,000 12 September SA - 2 week avg 211,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.


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Monday, September 23, 2019 4:27 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last Thursday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA
209,000 22 August SA
215,000 29 August SA - 5 week avg 214,000.
217,000 5 September SA
204,000 12 September SA
208,000 19 September SA - 3 week avg 210,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.



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Friday, September 27, 2019 5:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last yesterday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA
209,000 22 August SA
215,000 29 August SA - 5 week avg 214,000.
217,000 5 September SA
204,000 12 September SA
208,000 19 September SA
213,000 26 September SA - 4 week avg 211,000.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.

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Friday, September 27, 2019 6:21 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Hey JSF - nice to see you around!

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Friday, October 4, 2019 2:50 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with last yesterday's report data:

Jobless Claims.

Apparently the 209,000 reported on 26 April 2018 was the lowest since 1969. And the 210,000 on 1 March was too.

Other weeks:

230,000 1 February
221,000 8 February
229,000 15 February
222,000 22 February
210,000 1 March - 4wk avg 221
230,000 8 March
226,000 15 March
227,000 22 March
215,000 29 March - 4wk avg 225
242,000 5 April

233,000 12 April
233,000 19 April
209,000 26 April - Apr avg 229
211,000 3 May
211,000 10 May
223,000 17 May
234,000 24 May - May avg 220
221,000 31 May (for week ending 26 May) - May avg 220
222,000 7 June (for week ending 2 June)
218,000 14 June
218,000 21 June
227,000 28 June - June avg 221
231,000 5 July
214,000 12 July
207,000 19 July
217,000 26 July - July avg 217
218,000 2 August
213,000 9 August
212,000 16 August
210,000 23 August - 4 week avg 213,000
213,000 30 August - 5 week avg 213,000
203,000 6 September
204,000 13 September
201,000 20 September
215,000 27 September - 4 week avg 205,000
207,000 4 October
214,000 11 October
210,000 18 October
215,000 25 October - 4 week avg 212,000
214,000 1 November - 5 week avg 212,000
214,000 8 November _______________________________ final week before Election

216,000 15 November
224,000 23 November
234,000 29 November - 4 week avg 222,000

231,000 6 December
206,000 13 December
217,000 20 December
216,000 27 December - 4 week avg 218,000. 255,000 Unadjusted this week.
231,000 3 January 2019 Seasonally Adjusted. 285,000 Unadjusted.
216,000 10 January SA
213,000 17 January SA
199,000 24 January SA
253,000 31 January SA - 5 week avg 222,000.
234,000 7 February SA.
239,000 14 February SA
216,000 21 February SA
225,000 28 February SA - 4 week avg 229,000.
223,000 7 March SA
229,000 14 March SA
221,000 21 March SA
211,000 28 March SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
202,000 4 April SA
196,000 11 April SA
192,000 18 April SA - 3 week avg 197,000.
230,000 25 April SA - 4 week avg 205,000.
230,000 2 May SA
228,000 9 May SA
212,000 16 May SA
211,000 23 May SA
215,000 30 May SA - 5 week avg 219,000.
218,000 6 June SA.
222,000 13 June SA
216,000 20 June SA
227,000 27 June SA - 4 week avg 221,000.
221,000 3 July SA.
209,000 11 July SA.
216,000 18 July SA
206,000 25 July SA - 4 week avg 213,000.
215,000 1 August SA.
209,000 8 August SA
220,000 15 August SA
209,000 22 August SA
215,000 29 August SA - 5 week avg 214,000.
217,000 5 September SA
204,000 12 September SA
208,000 19 September SA
213,000 26 September SA - 4 week avg 211,000.
219,000 3 October SA.


207,000 is the lowest number since 1969. And 217,000 is the lowest average this year, and for decades.

203,000 is the lowest number since 6 December 1969.

The first full week following the Anti-Job Vote on Election Day ends the streak at 19 weeks in a row under 220,000. The prior such trend was 3 weeks.

The Election ended the streak of 14 weeks in a row at or under 215,000.
Now that America has voted for no jobs, who wants to guess how long before these numbers start climbing?
I was going to point out that the 15 November report was for the week ending 10 November, which is the first data following the Election.
But I see that I already predicted the numbers would rise, and the anti-job Democrats would get their wish.
Wow, the second full week is the second worst of the year, beaten only by the report from 5 April (last week of March). Which also brings the 4-week average up to the worst since April.
Looks like teen voters are getting their wish. The last time Democrats brought us historically record High Unemployment, so maybe we can get there again.
The MSM must have grown weary of those pesky repeated reports of lowest Unemployment since a half century ago.
Wow.
199,000 is the lowest figure since November 1969.
Yep. 253,000 is not a typo.
192,000 is reportedly lowest since Fall 1969.
For April 2019: I'm not sure I understand why April had very low Initial Jobless Claims, but the Unemployment Report shows a big drop in Labor Force for this April and last.


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Friday, October 4, 2019 2:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updating with today's Jobs Report data:

I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-1

Jan 2002 is listed twice. First with original report data from February 2002. Second with revised data from new Census data, published in February 2003.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BLS currently defines the Want A Job category as not being part of the Labor Force.

So I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real.

I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.


Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6
Jan98 07069 05.2% 5026 3.7% 12095 08.9% 4090 3.0% 16185 11.9% 204238 135951 66.6 09.3
Jan99 06604 04.8% 4800 3.5% 11404 08.3% 3645 2.6% 15049 10.9% 206719 137943 66.7 08.5
Jan00 06316 04.5% 4354 3.1% 10670 07.6% 3355 2.4% 14025 10.0% 208782 139621 66.9 07.8
Jan01 06647 04.7% 4474 3.2% 11121 07.9% 3559 2.5% 14680 10.4% 210889 141049 66.9 08.1
Jan02 08935 06.3% 4872 3.5% 13807 09.8% 4249 3.0% 18056 12.8% 213089 141074 66.2 10.5

Jan02 09051 06.3% 4938 3.4% 13989 09.8% 4453 3.1% 18442 12.9% 216506 143228 66.2 10.5
Jan03 09395 06.5% 4779 3.3% 14174 09.8% 5003 3.4% 19177 13.2% 219897 145301 66.1 11.0
Jan04 09144 06.3% 4913 3.4% 14057 09.6% 5152 3.5% 19209 13.2% 222161 146068 65.7 10.9
Jan05 08444 05.7% 5136 3.5% 13580 09.2% 4793 3.3% 18373 12.5% 224837 147125 65.4 10.2
Jan06 07608 05.1% 5095 3.4% 12703 08.5% 4513 3.0% 17216 11.5% 227553 149090 65.5 09.2
Jan07 07649 05.0% 4633 3.0% 12282 08.1% 4620 3.0% 16902 11.1% 230650 151924 65.9 09.1
Jan08 08221 05.4% 4977 3.2% 13198 08.6% 5235 3.5% 18433 12.1% 232616 152828 65.7 09.9
Jan09 13009 08.5% 5866 3.8% 18875 12.3% 8675 5.7% 27550 18.0% 234739 153445 65.4 15.4
Jan10 16147 10.6% 6108 4.0% 22255 14.6% 9161 5.9% 31416 20.5% 236832 152957 64.6 18.0
Jan11 14937 09.8% 6643 4.3% 21580 14.1% 9027 6.0% 30607 20.1% 238704 152536 63.9 17.3
Jan12 13541 08.8% 6495 4.3% 20036 13.1% 8747 5.7% 28783 18.8% 242269 153485 63.4 16.2
Jan13 13181 08.5% 6781 4.4% 19962 12.9% 8506 5.5% 28468 18.4% 244663 154794 63.3 15.4
Jan14 10855 07.0% 6508 4.2% 17363 11.2% 7617 5.0% 24980 16.2% 246915 154381 62.5 13.5
Jan15 09498 06.1% 6467 4.1% 15965 10.2% 7125 4.6% 23090 14.8% 249723 156050 62.5 12.0
Jan16 08309 05.3% 6166 3.9% 14475 09.2% 6234 4.0% 20709 13.2% 252397 157347 62.3 10.5
Jan17 08149 05.1% 5934 3.8% 14083 08.9% 6127 3.8% 20210 12.7% 254082 158676 62.5 10.1
Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8


Jan18 07189 04.5% 5364 3.3% 12553 07.8% 5380 3.4% 17933 11.2% 256780 160037 62.3 08.9
Feb18 07091 04.4% 5152 3.2% 12243 07.6% 5241 3.2% 17484 10.8% 256934 161494 62.9 08.6
Mar18 06671 04.1% 4793 3.0% 11464 07.1% 4975 3.1% 16439 10.2% 257097 161548 62.8 08.1
Apr18 05932 03.7% 5010 3.1% 10942 06.8% 4631 2.9% 15573 09.7% 257272 161280 62.7 07.4
May18 05657 03.6% 5696 3.5% 11353 07.0% 4677 2.9% 16030 09.9% 257454 161765 62.8 07.3
Jun18 06812 04.2% 5654 3.5% 12466 07.6% 4974 3.0% 17440 10.7% 257642 163277 63.4 08.1
Jul18 06730 04.1% 5483 3.3% 12213 07.5% 4701 2.9% 16914 10.3% 257843 163734 63.5 07.9
Aug18 06370 03.9% 5534 3.4% 11904 07.3% 4263 2.6% 16167 09.9% 258066 161909 62.7 07.4
Sep18 05766 03.6% 5070 3.1% 10836 06.7% 4238 2.6% 15074 09.3% 258290 161958 62.7 07.1
Oct18 05771 03.5% 5048 3.1% 10819 06.6% 4169 2.6% 14988 09.2% 258514 162723 62.9 07.0
Nov18 05650 03.5% 5060 3.1% 10710 06.6% 4512 2.8% 15222 09.4% 258708 162665 62.9 07.2
Dec18 06029 03.7% 5121 3.1% 11150 06.8% 4621 2.8% 15771 09.6% 258888 162510 62.8 07.5

Jan19 07140 04.4% 5435 3.4% 12575 07.8% 5543 3.4% 18118 11.2% 258239 162104 62.8 08.8
Feb19 06625 04.1% 5196 3.2% 11821 07.3% 4477 2.8% 16298 10.0% 258392 162793 63.0 07.7
Mar19 06382 03.9% 4887 3.0% 11269 06.9% 4548 2.8% 15817 09.7% 258537 162823 63.0 07.5
Apr19 05387 03.3% 4951 3.1% 10338 06.4% 4424 2.7% 14762 09.1% 258693 162097 62.7 06.9
May19 05503 03.4% 5500 3.4% 11003 06.8% 4070 2.5% 15073 09.3% 258861 162655 62.8 06.7
Jun19 06292 03.8% 5725 3.5% 12017 07.3% 4529 2.8% 16546 10.1% 259037 164120 63.4 07.5
Jul19 06556 04.0% 5289 3.2% 11845 07.2% 4017 2.4% 15862 09.6% 259225 164941 63.6 07.3
Aug19 06203 03.8% 5331 3.3% 11534 07.0% 4237 2.6% 15771 09.6% 259432 164019 63.2 07.3
Sep19 05465 03.3% 4637 2.8% 10102 06.2% 3925 2,4% 14027 08.6% 259638 163943 63.1 06.5


Jul12 13400 08.6% 6837 4.3% 20237 12.9% 8218 5.3% 28455 18.2% 243354 156526 64.3 15.2
Aug12 12696 08.2% 7631 4.9% 20327 13.1% 7723 5.0% 28050 18.1% 243566 155255 63.7 14.6
Sep12 11742 07.6% 6427 4.1% 18169 11.7% 8003 5.2% 26172 16.9% 243772 155075 63.6 14.2
Oct12 11741 07.5% 6142 4.0% 17883 11.5% 7768 5.0% 25651 16.5% 243983 155779 63.8 13.9
Nov12 11404 07.4% 6495 4.2% 17899 11.6% 7898 5.0% 25797 16.6% 244174 154953 63.5 13.9
Mo/Yr Unemp Pcnt WAJb Pcnt SubTtl Pcnt InvPT Pcnt Total Prcnt CivPop LbrFrc Prtc% U-6

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


General color-coding guidelines:
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column in the Table.
This color mostly highlights the most favorable figure of it's column since 9/11, or else since the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Recession.
This color highlights the worst figures in it's column in the Table, including loss of Labor Force count.


Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year.
The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure.

The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.

The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.

Well, it looks like the current U6 right now is lower than every January of the past 24 years, since the creation of U-6, according to BLS figures.

From 2009 to 2017, the Civilian noninstitutional Population grew by 19.343 Million. With a nominal post-9/11 Labor Participation Rate of 66%, the Labor Force would have grown by 12.766 Million. But Obama's Deep State reported that the Labor Force only grew by 5.231 Million. Labor Force is defined as all Employed + all Unemployed. So Obama would have you believe that during his 8 years, 7.5 Million extra Employ-eligible population were NOT unemployed (nor employed).



Quote:

The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated.
The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's