new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China by 1KIKI

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Thursday, September 5, 2024 19:55
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020 4:17 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Many people with 'symptoms' get tested. The vast majority in most cases do NOT have SARS-CoV-2.

If the testing program is adequate and it's sampling enough people to be representative, you'll have a maximum of about 5% positive. (It's a sampling statistical thing.) From that you can back-calculate and estimate of how many people in the population actually have the virus.

Many deaths occurred before sampling was widespread. But since then sampling has really kicked up. The old case fatality rate before all the testing was, iirc, 4% or thereabouts. Since then it's dropped so that total number is now around 2% +/-. As time goes on, the early numbers will get washed out, and the total should approach the real value.

The other way to do it is to keep track of CURRENT new cases/ new deaths, accounting for the timelag between infections and deaths, to properly assign the right numbers to each other. And to keep track of them for a while and then average them out, since the numbers will definitely be 'noisy'.

But that's for people whose full-time job is culling through databases and reports, and I'm actually too busy in my retirement to do that.

I'm OK with a ballpark figure at this point. And even if it's only 1%, it's STILL 10X more deadly than 'the' flu - which isn't deaths from one single flu virus, but a combination of deaths from all flu viruses and flu-like viral illnesses in an entire flu season. AS A SINGLE VIRUS, it outstrips an armada of influenza viruses for lethality.

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Thursday, November 12, 2020 5:50 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

This is a graphic that shows what's hard to get off of 91-DIVOC, since that website doesn't allow for data overlay.

The sequence of cases => deaths is easy to see, as well as the timeline where testing finally got ahead of deaths (when 'daily new cases' sets a new direction before 'daily new deaths').

But indeed, new cases => new deaths.

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Thursday, November 12, 2020 10:19 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

the current situation

Quote:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/12/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/inde
x.html

There are currently at least 10.5 million cases of coronavirus in the US and more than 242,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and ventilator use are rising in every single state, the [Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Policy Lab] said; [and] "COVID-19 patients are occupying more than 25% of ICU beds" in every Midwestern state.

Some hospitals have reached full capacity and are sending patients away. https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/11/health/hospital-staff-shortages-covid-1
9/index.html

Now that it's taking off - again - the rise will be at an ever faster rate.

predictions with numbers and dates

Quote:
The previous ensemble forecast, published November 5, projected up to 266,000 coronavirus deaths by November 28.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts there will be 260,000 to 282,000 coronavirus deaths by December 5, according to a forecast published Thursday.

Another widely-used Covid-19 model is predicting 438,941 deaths by March 1. That model is run by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

But if states relax restrictions and mask mandates, deaths could hit a staggering 587,000 by March 1, the IHME said.

Of course, as with all predictions, not only do these have error bars attached, but it's assuming nothing is done differently between now and then.

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Monday, November 16, 2020 1:21 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Covid-19 was present in Italy as early as SEPTEMBER 2019, study of lung cancer screenings shows

https://www.rt.com/news/506796-coronavirus-italy-blood-september/

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Monday, November 16, 2020 6:14 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Thinking ...

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

Wasn't it already agreed and understood that the first few months of testing would not reveal the entier specrum of cases, such as the asymptomatic and youth?
And now with vastly larger quantity of testing, the results are "finding" the previously hidden sector, the cases which were previously not tested.
So this sudden "rise" or explosion of newly reported cases is exactly what everybody knew would be found when testing caught up, right?
Or did I miss something way back then?

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Monday, November 16, 2020 8:14 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Hospitalizations and deaths are the more reliable metrics, as I stated WAY back at the beginning of the thread.

HOWEVER - they lag the virus spread considerably. If you need to know what's happening RIGHT NOW, you need to look at current infections numbers, immediately past infections numbers, and percent positivity, with the understanding that ^'cases' will always lead to ^deaths; and that positivity rates > 5% mean your testing is falling way behind actual cases.

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Tuesday, November 17, 2020 2:44 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

So, I believe I've concluded my quest to understand 'how SARS-CoV-2 spreads through a population'.

This post started with Sweden having to impose tough new rules due to an explosion of cases, and a beginning surge in deaths.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavirus/1605539591-in-first-sweden-
bans-gatherings-of-more-than-8-people-as-covid-19-cases-rise ...
After suffering a per capita fatality rate easily 10X more than its Nordic neighbors http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ Sweden has had to start imposing strong restrictions due to soaring cases - and deaths. (Where 'cases' rise, 'deaths' inevitably follow.).

As you might know, all along I've been wondering how exactly the virus moves through a population. And I think there are 2 things that needed to be separated out, which, due to the history of the virus, was difficult: 1) detectability, and 2) actual transmission/ cases.

Superspreader events
For a long time there was an idea that very few people transmitted the virus, and that it depended on 'superspreader' events for spread, which I think of as being a combination of circumstances and really effective transmitters - like the old Chinese guy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, who managed to infect dozens, if not over a hundred, in his few days on board.
At the time, in the early stages of the pandemic, because testing capacity was so low, the medical system depended on major superspreader events to detect the presence of the virus. And that led to a bias in thinking.

Small scale transmission
But now the theory is that even small gatherings transmit the virus, and there's good historical data that it was spreading in N Italy and SoCal (and probably Wuhan) months before anyone realized it.
N Italy https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/covid-19-circulating-in-italy-as-
early-as-september-2019-scientists-claim/ar-BB1b3yvR
SoCal https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/09/11/ucla-study-covid-19-spreadi
ng-la-december/
And with increased testing capacity, we don't need tens of thousands of deaths to announce the presence of SARS-CoV-2, and can see it moving through communities and even families.

Anyway, given all that historic quiet spread, it looks like the virus actually spreads normally like the flu: between household members, between people just out in public, and so on, except it's more contagious.

But it ALSO has the capacity for superspreading, when conditions are appropriate, like SARS-CoV-1.

Historically, where it landed I think determined whether or not it was detected by the medical system at large.

In N Italy and SoCal it landed in the general population where it spread quietly, not creating a 'signal' event. (Eventually the 'signal' event in N Italy was triggered by a superspreading soccer match with Spain.) In Washington State and Sweden, it landed in nursing homes where it set off a notable conflagration that got a lot of attention. And in NYC, due to density and the high level of intermingling, after languishing for a while, it eventually set off a superspreader event, which triggered other superspreader events and so on. It went thermonuclear, "and it exploded" (to borrow a phrase from Galaxy Quest).

And WAY back when, before it was in the population very much, it was possible to contain it by limiting large gatherings - and by doing testing, contact tracing, and isolation.

But now that it's seeded itself throughout the country in even small communities, preventative measures have to be far more fine-grained, and take into account small scale transmission.

And fwiw, there's still a lot about the virus that's unknown. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/co
ronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351 which addresses the (even high) prevalence of long-term cardiac effects, lung damage etc, with unknown futures attached to those problems. And that means no one should be making assumptions that a high percentage will get better and be perfectly fine forever afterward. I think a lot of people (myself included) didn't truly come to grips with just how unknown this virus is. And that led to people making all sorts of assumptions based on nothing at all. The fact is, being an UNKNOWN virus at loose in the population, nobody knows what any of this means long-term.

With any luck, vaccines are coming in the near term. So I think it's prudent to avoid as many infections as possible in the interim, along with their unknown potentials, with universal masking, handwashing, and social distancing, which are low-cost, low energy means to reverse rampant viral spread.

So ... SARS-CoV-2 spreads normally in the population, just like the flu, which it had been doing for some time in particular locations.

But then, what unmasked it, was its additional superspreading capacity, that caused horrible epidemics among vulnerable people that were easy to see.

In the beginning, when there were very few infectious people in isolated locations, it was possible to stop the epidemic using testing, contact tracing, and isolation.

But now, conditions in the US have changed significantly, and the virus is in a significant number of people in local communities across the country. And that means that precautions have to be finer grained (dealing with small numbers of people and individuals) and more comprehensive (followed by close to everybody, close to all of the time).

While nobody can say what the risks are, for sure it's also true that nobody can say they don't exist or are minimal. Considering that vaccines are going to be available in the near-term, it seems prudent to follow assiduous masking, handwashing, and social distancing to minimize any short-term and potential long-term illnesses and deaths.

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Tuesday, November 17, 2020 9:45 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

United States
On Nov. 16 14-day change
New cases 166,226 +82%
New deaths 796 +40%

NYTimes

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Wednesday, November 18, 2020 3:56 PM

https://www.hannaherald.com/entertainment/celebrity/dolly-parton-proud
-to-be-part-of-covid-19-vaccine-success/wcm/44b267cf-d5e4-4613-b325-db7de55965bc

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Thursday, November 19, 2020 1:17 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Interesting vid on today's NYTimes front page:

http://vp.nyt.com/video/2020/11/18/90130_1_graphic-containment-hp-vid_
wg_480p.mp4

The states with the fewest COVID-19 measures have the highest per capita COVID-19 cases.

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Thursday, November 19, 2020 6:36 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

A beginning shift in the M$M?

Lockdowns could be avoided if 95% of people wore masks, says WHO
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/europe/coronavirus-europe-lockdown-
tiers-intl/index.html

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Thursday, November 19, 2020 7:54 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

How Many Americans Are About to Die?

A new analysis shows that the country is on track to pass spring’s grimmest record.

Because the case-fatality rate has stayed fixed for so long and there are now so many reported cases, predicting the virus’s death toll in the near term has become a matter of brutal arithmetic: 150,000 cases a day, times 1.5 percent, will lead to 2,250 daily deaths. In the spring, the seven-day average of daily deaths rose to its highest point ever on April 21, when it reached 2,116 deaths. With cases rising as fast as they are, the U.S. could cross the threshold of 2,000 daily deaths within a month. Without a miraculous improvement in care, the United States is about to face the darkest period of the pandemic so far.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201119195210/https://www.theatlantic.com
/science/archive/2020/11/coronavirus-death-rate-third-surge/617150/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, November 20, 2020 7:57 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The US just recorded more than 2,000 Covid-19 deaths in a day. One forecasting model predicts that number will keep growing. The group also hiked its Covid-19 death forecast considerably, now predicting a total of 471,000 American deaths by March 1.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

Trump views this as a success! Directly from White House: President Trump’s Coronavirus Response Has Saved Over 2 Million Lives and Outperformed Other Nations.
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-trumps-coronavirus-r
esponse-saved-2-million-lives-outperformed-nations/

White House on 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths: Call Us When 2 Million of You Are Dead. Apparently a heckuva lot more people are going to have to die before the administration takes this COVID-19 thing seriously. Anyway, just 200,000 deaths, woohoo, party time! Somebody get a cake and streamers, the White House is celebrating tonight!
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/09/white-house-coronavirus-deaths

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, November 20, 2020 6:40 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Signy, just for you -

Cases are soaring in LACounty. Estimates are that 12% of all new cases will be hospitalized roughly 2 weeks after cases go up. (As I heard on KNX1070) the trigger to hardline restrictions is when they think choices will have to be made between which patients get resources - between say a COVID-19 patient getting a ventilator v a stroke victim getting one, or a COVID-19 patient getting an ICU bed v a trauma victim.

Yes, it's heading towards T-day, but this is a time to be extra vigilant.

California coronavirus cases hit record for 2nd time this week amid new restrictions
COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen by 63.6% over the last 14 days, hitting 4,523, according to Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s health and human services secretary. The number of patients in intensive care — 1,155 — is 40.5% higher than two weeks ago.
With the virus becoming more widespread statewide, "activities that you normally do are higher risk today than they were a month ago," Ghaly said.
"We’ve seen reports of people saying, 'Well, I haven’t changed my behavior. I was doing the same thing a month ago,'" he said. "Well, today, because the background transmission rate, the level of COVID in our communities, is higher, even our everyday activities become higher risk. And we must be resolved to put up our protective guards even more than we usually do."
https://news.yahoo.com/california-coronavirus-cases-hit-record-1923539
94.html

L.A. is facing the most dangerous moment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's how we got here
A Times analysis found that L.A. County is reporting an average of 3,362 coronavirus cases a day over the previous five days as of Thursday. If that rate hits 4,000 cases a day — a scenario that could plausibly happen in a matter of days — county officials say they'll order an end to outdoor restaurant dining and require eateries to serve food only by delivery or takeout.
And if that rate hits 4,500 a day, authorities warn they'll order a stay-at-home order, which would allow only essential and emergency workers and those securing essential services to leave their homes, and impose a 10 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that would generally only exempt essential workers.
If COVID-19 hospitalizations pass the threshold of 1,750 in L.A. County, officials say they plan to order restaurants to close outdoor dining areas. And authorities plan to issue a new stay-at-home order if hospitalizations pass 2,000.
In September, L.A. County recorded about 100 new cases of patients with COVID-19 needing hospital admission every day. "Now, that number is closer to 200," Ghaly said. The sharp increase in hospitalizations is a warning sign. "It is highly likely that we will experience that highest rates of hospitalizations that we have seen in the COVID-19 pandemic to date within the next month unless we take action immediately to substantially reduce transmission within our communities," Ghaly said.
The effective transmission rate of the coronavirus in L.A. County is now estimated at 1.18, meaning that every person infected with the virus on average transmits it to 1.18 people. "This is a marked increase from last week, when we estimated that the [transmission rate] was 1.03," said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the L.A. County director of health services.
https://news.yahoo.com/l-facing-most-dangerous-moment-170154245.html

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Friday, November 20, 2020 11:34 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Scrounging around, I found some information that points to an answer about age v comorbidities and COVID-19.

As the 'deaths' numbers go up with age, the percentage of those 'deaths' with commodities stays more or less the same. That means that comorbidities go up with age, and seem to be the biggest risk factor, not age per se.

If age alone was a factor, the percent of people dying with comorbidities would be going down as age goes up, because they would be dying of COVID-19 + age alone.

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 2:25 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

Signy, just for you -

Cases are soaring in LACounty. Estimates are that 12% of all new cases will be hospitalized roughly 2 weeks after cases go up. (As I heard on KNX1070) the trigger to hardline restrictions is when they think choices will have to be made between which patients get resources - between say a COVID-19 patient getting a ventilator v a stroke victim getting one, or a COVID-19 patient getting an ICU bed v a trauma victim.

Yes, it's heading towards T-day, but this is a time to be extra vigilant.

California coronavirus cases hit record for 2nd time this week amid new restrictions
COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen by 63.6% over the last 14 days, hitting 4,523, according to Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s health and human services secretary. The number of patients in intensive care — 1,155 — is 40.5% higher than two weeks ago.
With the virus becoming more widespread statewide, "activities that you normally do are higher risk today than they were a month ago," Ghaly said.
"We’ve seen reports of people saying, 'Well, I haven’t changed my behavior. I was doing the same thing a month ago,'" he said. "Well, today, because the background transmission rate, the level of COVID in our communities, is higher, even our everyday activities become higher risk. And we must be resolved to put up our protective guards even more than we usually do."
https://news.yahoo.com/california-coronavirus-cases-hit-record-1923539
94.html

L.A. is facing the most dangerous moment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's how we got here
A Times analysis found that L.A. County is reporting an average of 3,362 coronavirus cases a day over the previous five days as of Thursday. If that rate hits 4,000 cases a day — a scenario that could plausibly happen in a matter of days — county officials say they'll order an end to outdoor restaurant dining and require eateries to serve food only by delivery or takeout.
And if that rate hits 4,500 a day, authorities warn they'll order a stay-at-home order, which would allow only essential and emergency workers and those securing essential services to leave their homes, and impose a 10 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that would generally only exempt essential workers.
If COVID-19 hospitalizations pass the threshold of 1,750 in L.A. County, officials say they plan to order restaurants to close outdoor dining areas. And authorities plan to issue a new stay-at-home order if hospitalizations pass 2,000.
In September, L.A. County recorded about 100 new cases of patients with COVID-19 needing hospital admission every day. "Now, that number is closer to 200," Ghaly said. The sharp increase in hospitalizations is a warning sign. "It is highly likely that we will experience that highest rates of hospitalizations that we have seen in the COVID-19 pandemic to date within the next month unless we take action immediately to substantially reduce transmission within our communities," Ghaly said.
The effective transmission rate of the coronavirus in L.A. County is now estimated at 1.18, meaning that every person infected with the virus on average transmits it to 1.18 people. "This is a marked increase from last week, when we estimated that the [transmission rate] was 1.03," said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the L.A. County director of health services.
https://news.yahoo.com/l-facing-most-dangerous-moment-170154245.html

I think this is people not taking the virus very seriously. It's been here for almost a year and people aren't very good at vigilence.

Our family is still, basically, in lockdown. we go grocery shopping and mail letters and pick up medicines, and I thank my lucky stars that I started out with some decent N95s and have recently been able to purchase some more and done my level-best to make sure that they aren't counterfeit. But these are supposedly mfrd by a chinese compnay that is approved both by the CDC and NIOSH and seems to have all the right markings, so fingers crossed that they're OK.

I think it's spreading thru house parties. I used to wonder why the curfew, but I think this is to prevent house parties. This bugger is so incredibly infectious that if you can mass gatherings and require masks it will find another avenue.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 2:28 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

OK. I just wanted to alert you to SoCal conditions.

I'm not sure how tuned in you are to strictly local things!

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 7:26 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

This is just to point out that it's not just the m$m that lies ... it's anybody with a single-minded agenda that can't have it exposed to the light of facts:

Quote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/danish-study-suggests-masks-do-
little-stop-covid-iowa-gov-insists-there-evidence-both
Danish Study Suggests Masks Do Little To Stop COVID As Iowa Gov Insists There Is "Evidence On Both Sides"

What the study https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 ACTUALLY found was - masks did little to protect the WEARER, at a time and place where infection rates were extremely low and many stringent public measures were already in place.

But people knew that 2 months in. Masks MOSTLY protect everyone else.

So why print this extremely misleading article now?

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 8:20 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Just tracking major turning points:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/one-in-5-u-s-hospit
als-face-staffing-crises-within-a-week

One in Five U.S. Hospitals Face Staffing Crises Within a Week

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 10:43 PM

They keep saying stuff like this, but you take a step outside and everything is just as it always has been except for all the masks.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 10:47 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

Scrounging around, I found some information that points to an answer about age v comorbidities and COVID-19.

As the 'deaths' numbers go up with age, the percentage of those 'deaths' with commodities stays more or less the same. That means that comorbidities go up with age, and seem to be the biggest risk factor, not age per se.

If age alone was a factor, the percent of people dying with comorbidities would be going down as age goes up, because they would be dying of COVID-19 + age alone.

That graph doesn't take into account that a lot of people just live with problems and/or don't
regularly go to the doctor for yearly visits at all if ever. Especially when they're under 50.
Also, unless you're a fat sack of shit, it's highly unlikely that those 35 or under would even
be expected to have a comorbidity if they've never gone to the doctor to get something checked out.
(You DID after all, just make a point last night to tell me that I probably have problems that
I'm not aware of yet due to smoking even if I don't' realize it, didn't you?)

It's extremely likely that 100% of those deaths 50 years and below were due to comorbidities that
weren't known. The number might fall after 50 years old, but probably not. Most people in their 60's
and above DO have at least one of the things considered a comorbidity.

(Using me, as an example, if I were to die of Covid, I would be one of those who died without any comorbidities. Yeah, I smoke... But "smoking" isn't a valid cause of death. I don't have high blood
pressure, I'm not obese, I've never had cancer. They would list me as dying without any comorbidities.
But maybe I do have early stages of COPD or some other smoking related ailment that has never been diagnosed before.)

It's not exactly as if everybody has the free time to test for comorbidities posthumously since
everybody is supposedly overworked as it is. They're more than happy to just mark it down as
another Covid death and continue to bump those numbers to get the additional Federal money.

I'm saying it right now. I don't believe that anybody dies from Covid unless they had other major
health problems beforehand, regardless of age. The one scary thing about this might be that their
comorbidities were "under control" with pills or other treatment and Covid adds something new
to the mix rendering the treatments for other problems moot. (THIS would actually be the first thing
I've ever heard about Covid that would be scary. Imagine if getting Covid means that the countless
people on current Blood Pressure medications are not being helped out by those pills at all while
Covid jacks up their system).

Take a look at charts. For years... decades even, the US has come up extremely high on the lists
for being one of the most unhealthy nations on the planet. Maybe the higher death counts here can
mostly be attributed to our general BS lifestyles and terrible eating and physical habits, vices, etc.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 11:47 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Thanks for doing a SECOND and completely misrepresenting my post.

And apparently your 'genius' failed to comprehend the logic - as simple as it was.

So, of all the people who died of COIVD-19, most of them died in hospital. DO YOU THINK (a good question for you as well as SECOND) that their comorbidities weren't noticed? For all that their BPs were taken, that nobody noticed hypertension? For all that their blood chemistries were run, nobody noticed diabetes? Or kidney or liver disease? Nobody noticed any comorbidities at all and noted them? Or that pathologists/ medical examiners didn't notice those conditions either?

And, oh, BTW, DO YOU THINK that people with whited-out lungs, steadily falling to deadly hypoxemia, and on respirators with maximum settings, had COVID-19 listed as the cause of death just because they were in car accidents? Or ODed?

And DO YOU THINK that nobody younger than 50 has any known medical conditions?

What a dolt.

So let me make the point - AGAIN.

IF AGE ALONE IS A FACTOR, THEN OLDER PEOPLE SHOULD BE DYING OF AGE+COVID-19 AT INCREASED RATES AS AGE GOES UP. THAT DROPS THE PERCENTAGE OF THOSE WHO DIE WITH COMORBIDITIES AS AGE GOES UP.

But that's not what the data shows.

I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.

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Saturday, November 21, 2020 11:56 PM

Apparently your hospitals in California do a whole bunch of frills and unnecessary bullshit.

It's very easy to assume that comorbidities are missed around these parts. ESPECIALLY IN CROOK FUCKING COUNTY WHERE YOU POSTED A CHART FROM.

My Uncle got his bladder removed and a balloon inserted because of bladder cancer at Hynes hospital. One quarter of a million dollars on the taxpayer dime.

Whoopsie!

Turned out that he already had cancer all over his body and in his brain. Guess that's why the new bladder didn't take.

They could have just given him $25,000 and told him he had a few months to live and go to Disney world and saved Illinois taxpayers a bundle if they did some tests before jumping right to highly invasive surgery and making his last month to live something I wouldn't wish on Nilbog.

He spent his last three days looking like cross-eyed Christ on a cross and sitting in his own shit and piss.

Fuck Cook County. Fuck Cook County Medical "Professionals" hard.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 12:05 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

DO YOU THINK that ALL of the stats out of multiple hundreds are all wrong?

I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 12:07 AM

Yes.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 12:27 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

THANKS for the lulz!!

I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 1:30 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.

Why on earth would you assume that you, personally, have anything to do with my thoughts on Covid.

I just get a great laugh at your paranoia about it.

You don't bring anything new to the conversation. You sound exactly like a CNN anchor when the topic comes up.

YOU are the one that changes YOUR behavior when Covid is the topic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 2:31 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 11:44 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.

Why on earth would you assume that you, personally, have anything to do with my thoughts on Covid.

I just get a great laugh at your paranoia about it.

You don't bring anything new to the conversation. You sound exactly like a CNN anchor when the topic comes up.

YOU are the one that changes YOUR behavior when Covid is the topic.

P.S. Sorry not sorry that I didn't stay up and indulge your idiocy all night.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 2:04 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 2:05 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Where we last had ON TOPIC FACT-BASED posts, starting here:

This is just to point out that it's not just the m$m that lies ... it's anybody with a single-minded agenda that can't have it exposed to the light of facts:

Quote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/danish-study-suggests-masks-do-
little-stop-covid-iowa-gov-insists-there-evidence-both
Danish Study Suggests Masks Do Little To Stop COVID As Iowa Gov Insists There Is "Evidence On Both Sides"

What the study https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 ACTUALLY found was - masks did little to protect the WEARER, at a time and place where infection rates were extremely low and many stringent public measures were already in place.

But people knew that 2 months in. Masks MOSTLY protect everyone else.

So why print this extremely misleading article now?

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 2:07 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Just tracking major turning points:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/one-in-5-u-s-hospit
als-face-staffing-crises-within-a-week

One in Five U.S. Hospitals Face Staffing Crises Within a Week

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Sunday, November 22, 2020 3:33 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

But the most salient information is this: it shows that 'age' is not a comorbidity. If age was a comorbidity, the percent of people dying from COVID-19+age(and only age) would go up as years go up. And that would drop the relative percent of people dying with other comorbidities down.
But that's not what the data shows.
The data seems to show that comorbidities go up as age goes up. And people are dying from COVID-19+comorbidities regardless of age.

ETA: What makes this so noteworthy is that it's the first time I've seen data where age is cleanly separated from comorbidities. Finding the data where they were separated out was fruitless until now. The subsequent calculations based on the data to estimate the effects of age v comorbidities is easy enough.

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Monday, November 23, 2020 5:59 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

And now for some NYTimes doublespeak. What I did was put all the contradictory statements together up top, with the complete article below:

† Yes, the coronavirus can be spread over cocktails and dinners. But these get-togethers do not account for the huge rise in cases seen now, the data show.
† Household get-togethers undoubtedly do contribute to community transmission of the virus.
† But are dinners and backyard barbecues really the engine driving the current surge of infections?
† The available data do not support that contention, scientists say.
† political leaders and public health officials have said ... that unmasked people are sitting too closely in kitchens and living rooms
† But many epidemiologists are far less certain, saying there is little evidence to suggest that household gatherings were the source of the majority of infections since the summer.
† Indeed, it has become much harder to pinpoint any source of any outbreak, now that the virus is so widespread and Americans may be exposed in so many ways.
† long-term care facilities, food processing plants, prisons, health care settings, and restaurants and bars are still the leading sources of spread, the data suggest
† It is nearly impossible to compare the relative contribution of social gatherings
† These gatherings, especially if held indoors, certainly can drive infections.
† In Louisiana, social events account for just 1.7 percent of the 3,300 cases for which the state has clear exposure information.
† I can get together with nine of my best friends and sit around a table at a restaurant. So why can’t I do that in my house?
† the data are not clear
† “There’s more of these social gathering clusters, there’s more workplace clusters, there’s more church clusters, there’s more youth sports clusters — more everything.”
† In this sort of conflagration, it’s impossible to estimate how much social gatherings contribute to community transmission.
† “More and more, our exposures are due to community spread and are not traceable to a single event,”
† In most places, the virus is too widespread to claim with any confidence where someone became infected.
† “Many individuals are reporting more than one exposure.”
† In Minnesota ... there were about 202,000 coronavirus infections. Nearly 12,000 were attributed to restaurants, bars and sports sites, and about 17,000 to congregate care settings.
† Yet more than 115,000 of the cases could not be traced back to a known setting.
† “Household gatherings would be much safer if officials put stricter limits on commercial and nonresidential activities."

Small Social Gatherings Aren’t Driving the Virus Surge (So Far)

Yes, the coronavirus can be spread over cocktails and dinners. But these get-togethers do not account for the huge rise in cases seen now, the data show. While household gatherings may contribute to community transmission, they are not the engine driving the recent spread of the virus.

By Apoorva Mandavilli

Nov. 23, 2020, 1:23 p.m. ET

As states struggle to contain the resurgent coronavirus, many officials are laying the blame on an unexpected source: people gathering with family and friends.

Household get-togethers undoubtedly do contribute to community transmission of the virus. Canada’s recent Thanksgiving certainly added to its rising cases; such an increase may happen here, too, as the United States embarks on a holiday season like no other. That’s why the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday warned so strongly against gathering with others outside the household during Thanksgiving.

But are dinners and backyard barbecues really the engine driving the current surge of infections? The available data do not support that contention, scientists say. Still, the idea has been repeated so often it has become conventional wisdom, leading to significant restrictions in many states.

In dozens of statements over the past weeks, political leaders and public health officials have said that while previous waves of infection could be linked to nursing homes, meatpacking plants or restaurants, the problem now is that unmasked people are sitting too closely in kitchens and living rooms, lighting thousands of small Covid fires that burn through their communities.

“It’s those informal, private gatherings where we’re seeing the ignition taking off in terms of the infection rate,” Gov. Ned Lamont of Connecticut said earlier this month, as he announced that private events would be restricted to 10 people.

Household gatherings have “become a major vector of disease spread,” the Health and Human Services secretary, Alex Azar, said in an interview with CNN in late October.

But many epidemiologists are far less certain, saying there is little evidence to suggest that household gatherings were the source of the majority of infections since the summer. Indeed, it has become much harder to pinpoint any source of any outbreak, now that the virus is so widespread and Americans may be exposed in so many ways.

“Somebody says something, and somebody else says it, and then it just becomes truth,” said Julia Marcus, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard University. “I worry about this narrative that doesn’t yet seem to be data-based.”

Most states don’t collect or report detailed information about the exposure that led to a new infection. But in states where a breakdown is available, long-term care facilities, food processing plants, prisons, health care settings, and restaurants and bars are still the leading sources of spread, the data suggest.

An analysis of nearly 800 nursing homes in six states experiencing the biggest surges, including North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, found that these homes are still hot spots of viral transmission and that little has been done since the spring to reduce that risk.

It is nearly impossible to compare the relative contribution of social gatherings to the number of cases in different states, or even to find a consistent definition of what constitutes a gathering.

Rhode Island, which limited private gatherings to 10 people, helpfully defined the term, including family get-togethers, birthday parties, baby showers and sleepovers. But some states also add larger events, such as weddings and funerals, into the category.

These gatherings, especially if held indoors, certainly can drive infections. In rural Maine, a wedding with 55 guests ultimately resulted in 177 cases, while a wedding in Washington State led to at least 17. Outbreaks in communities with tight-knit social networks, such as the Amish and the Hasidic Jewish population, were also powered by large social events.

But the same cannot be said of smaller private gatherings with friends and family. In Colorado, only 81 active cases are attributed to social gatherings, compared with more than 4,000 from correctional centers and jails, 3,300 from colleges and universities, nearly 2,400 from assisted living facilities, and 450 from restaurants, bars, casinos and bowling alleys.

In Louisiana, social events account for just 1.7 percent of the 3,300 cases for which the state has clear exposure information.

“It’s important to give good public health advice about what’s coming in the holidays, no doubt about it,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “But it is not good to suggest that they are now the preponderance of the source of spread.”

Social gatherings have become a convenient scapegoat for political leaders flummoxed by the steeply climbing numbers, some experts said.

“It seems like they’re passing off the responsibility for controlling the outbreak to individuals and individual choices,” said Ellie Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University. “A pandemic is more a failure of the system than the failure of individual choices.”

A similar narrative played out in September, when universities shamed and expelled students for partying instead of providing them with clear guidelines and resources, Dr. Marcus said.

“It’s a way of distracting from the harder public health work that we need to do,” she said — for example, by implementing mask mandates, addressing societal inequities and ensuring enough personal protective equipment for health care workers.

(A recent analysis by The New York Times showed that states where leaders did not impose these containment measures now have the worst outbreaks.)

A constant drumbeat about the dangers of social gatherings may help to convey the seriousness of the current surge, she said. On the other hand, in some states the misperception has led to draconian policies that don’t square with science.

Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota on Wednesday took the extraordinary step of banning people from different households from meeting indoors or outdoors, even though evidence has consistently shown the outdoors to be relatively safe.

But the executive order allows places of worship, funeral homes and wedding venues — while they are encouraged to hold virtual events — to host as many as 250 people indoors.

Vermont likewise forbade people from meeting neighbors for a socially distanced and masked walk, but permitted them to dine indoors at restaurants before 10 p.m.

These recommendations are unscientific and “bizarre,” said Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease modeler at the University of Toronto.

“If people are going to meet up, doing so outdoors is probably the lowest-risk way to do it,” she said. “Telling people they can’t spend time safely outdoors isn’t a rational approach. People are going to recognize that and push back.”

(On Friday, following public complaints, Gov. Phil Scott of Vermont said people from different households could walk together as long as they wore masks and stayed more than six feet apart.)

Dissonant policies also run the risk of fueling mistrust and resentment in a public already beset with fatigue from the pandemic and politics, Dr. Tuite warned.

“If you’re an average person looking at what’s allowed and what’s not allowed, it may not make a lot of sense,” she said. “I can get together with nine of my best friends and sit around a table at a restaurant. So why can’t I do that in my house?”

Cracking down on social gatherings suggests that there is clear evidence regarding where people are exposed and that they are meeting more often now than earlier in the pandemic. But the data are not clear: For example, the percentage of Californians who visited friends or had guests over at their homes has hovered around 50 percent since June, according to weekly surveys conducted by the University of Southern California.

In most places, the virus is too widespread to claim with any confidence where someone became infected. Where once clusters were obvious — in nursing homes and meatpacking plants, for example — now there are thousands of small outbreaks in restaurants, bars, bowling alleys, colleges and gyms.

“It really feels like there’s just little fires all over the place,” said Dr. K.J. Seung, chief of strategy and policy for Covid-19 response in Massachusetts. “There’s more of these social gathering clusters, there’s more workplace clusters, there’s more church clusters, there’s more youth sports clusters — more everything.”

In this sort of conflagration, it’s impossible to estimate how much social gatherings contribute to community transmission.

“More and more, our exposures are due to community spread and are not traceable to a single event,” said Nicole Peske, chief communications officer for the North Dakota Department of Health. “Many individuals are reporting more than one exposure.”

Maryland’s public health department has reported that 13 percent of people who were infected said they had attended at least one gathering of more than 10 people. “As an epidemiologist, I don’t know what to do with that information,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “I don’t know just because they went there that they got it there.”

In Minnesota, up to the week ending Nov. 12, there were about 202,000 coronavirus infections. Nearly 12,000 were attributed to restaurants, bars and sports sites, and about 17,000 to congregate care settings.

Yet more than 115,000 of the cases could not be traced back to a known setting. “Identifying any one activity as the driver of the surge misses the fact that all activities become riskier as local case levels rise,” Dr. Murray said.

“Household gatherings would be much safer if officials put stricter limits on commercial and nonresidential activities. They are choosing not to, and then saying the fault lies with individuals.”

Local governments could also provide safer gathering spaces for people, with open-air tents, firepits and heat lamps as temperatures drop, Dr. Marcus said: “Then the message becomes a more realistic one. Instead of ‘don’t gather,’ it’s ‘gather here instead.’”

A disproportionate emphasis on private gatherings does not make sense, Dr. Marcus added: “We need to be putting our attention where it’s most needed, and I’m not convinced that this is where it’s most needed.”

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Tuesday, November 24, 2020 12:45 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/17/how-covid19-has-been-curtailed-in-
cherokee-nation/

‘They’ve been following the science’: How the Covid-19 pandemic has been curtailed in Cherokee Nation

While the United States flounders in its response to the coronavirus, another nation — one within our own borders — is faring much better.

With a mask mandate in place since spring, free drive-through testing, hospitals well-stocked with PPE, and a small army of public health officers fully supported by their chief, the Cherokee Nation has been able to curtail its Covid-19 case and death rates even as those numbers surge in surrounding Oklahoma, where the White House coronavirus task force says spread is unyielding.

Elsewhere in the U.S., tribal areas have been hit hard by the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that American Indian and Alaskan Native populations have case rates 3.5 times higher than that of white individuals. The Navajo Nation, where Covid testing, PPE, and sometimes even running water are in short supply, has seen nearly 13,000 cases and 602 deaths among its roughly 170,000 citizens. The Cherokee Nation, with about 140,000 citizens on its reservation in northeastern Oklahoma, has reported just over 4,000 cases and 33 deaths.

“It’s dire, but what in the world would it look like if we weren’t doing this work?’” said Lisa Pivec, senior director of public health for Cherokee Nation Health Services. Pivec leads a team that jumped into action in late February, holding coronavirus task force meetings twice a day, instituting procedures to screen thousands of employees, stockpiling PPE, protecting elders, ensuring food security, and educating residents in both English and Cherokee language. With no guidance on contact tracing available from the CDC early in the pandemic, Pivec researched the World Health Organization’s Ebola response to set up tracing protocols; after the first case appeared on the reservation March 24, she made many of the contact tracing calls herself.

She said the Cherokee Nation has seen no cases of workplace transmission; Sequoyah High School, with rapid testing and masks, reopened for in-person learning this fall; and elective medical and dental procedures have been widely restored.

The tribe’s Covid response meets the approval of global health leaders. “It’s very impressive. It’s a reminder of how much leadership matters and how even under difficult circumstances, with limited resources, you can make a huge difference,” said Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. “It fits with what I’ve seen in the world. You see countries like Vietnam. They’re not a wealthy country, but they’ve been following the science and doing a great job.”

If the U.S. had acted as the Cherokee Nation did, “we would be doing so much better,” Jha added, “with tens of thousands of fewer deaths, and probably a much more robust economy.”

The Cherokee Nation mounted an earlier and more aggressive response than neighboring states that have waited months — and are still waiting — for a national response. Pivec and other Cherokee leaders remain incredulous at the continued lack of federal leadership. “It’s as if Russia had invaded the U.S. and the federal government said, ‘Every county should fend for itself,’” Pivec said..

Lisa Pivec

A citizen of the Cherokee Nation, Pivec has stewarded the tribe’s public health program for nearly 30 years; in 2016, she helped the tribe become the first to be accredited by the Public Health Accreditation Board. She said she’s inspired by none other than Wilma Mankiller, an activist who became the nation’s first female principal chief in 1985.

“She inspired me to stand up and say we can determine our own destiny. We can determine how we run our government, and we can determine how we respond to the coronavirus,” Pivec said.

Pivec gives much credit to Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr., who leads the vast, 14-county reservation larger than Connecticut, in the rolling foothills of the Ozarks — land Cherokee citizens were forced to walk hundreds of miles to relocate to after the Indian Removal Act of 1830. A sign with Hoskin’s mask-adorned face graces the entrance to Cherokee Nation headquarters, and to highlight the importance of masks, he recently approved the masking of a statue of Sequoyah — saying the Cherokee statesman would have been first to mask up to protect his people.

“I have never felt so much support as a public health professional,” Pivec said of Hoskin. “He always comes through for us. He always listens to science.”

Hoskin, who says he is sure masks have saved lives and misery, implemented a mandate requiring Cherokee citizens to wear masks indoors and outdoors when around others, at the behest of his public health experts; the state of Oklahoma has yet to enact one. “I admire Dr. Fauci. I feel I have several Dr. Faucis,” Hoskin told STAT, referring to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “We acknowledged early on we should defer to the expertise of our public health staff to let them do what they do best.”

The proper collection of data on Native American health in the U.S. has been notoriously poor. Not so in the Cherokee Nation. Early on, tribal public health leaders created a Covid dashboard with a seven-day moving average based on one created by Jha and his former colleagues at the Harvard Global Health Institute. They track cases closely. Pivec said David Gahn, the Cherokee Nation’s public health medical director, has been working around the clock to figure out how best to present tribal Covid data and keep it updated. “We just issued update #255,” she said.

Hoskin also worked to ensure tribal health care workers would have enough PPE. “It blew my mind that the wealthiest country on the planet would find itself short of PPE for its health care workers,” he said. The nation has donated spare PPE to non-Native first responder agencies in Oklahoma and to the Navajo Nation. Hoskin is now using CARES Act Covid-19 emergency funding to build and retrofit facilities so Cherokee workers can manufacture PPE, including N95 masks, locally. “We don’t want to be at the mercy of the U.S. failure to ensure our people are safe,” Hoskin said.

The mask mandate was on full display Sept. 30 when U.S. Attorney General William Barr visited Hoskin in the Cherokee Nation capital Tahlequah, just four days after he’d attended, unmasked, the White House Rose Garden ceremony for now-confirmed Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett that’s become notorious as a likely Covid-19 superspreader event. But in meetings with Hoskin — to discuss a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling establishing that tribal citizens should be tried in tribal courts — Barr wore a mask.

“We have no problem enforcing our mask mandate, even on our attorney general,” said Hoskin.

Testing site

It was July 24 when Dion Francis, 59, first started feeling ill, even though he’d been careful because of a compromised immune system. The U.S. Army veteran and retired FBI agent says what happened next exemplifies the superb pandemic response by the nation’s health workers.

He decided he would tough out the aches and fatigue at home. After his 19-year-old daughter started feeling sick and uncomfortable as well, the two decided to go to one of the nation’s drive-through testing facilities, where nurses approached the vehicle from both sides. “We stuck those swabs all the way up your nasal cavities into your brain,” Francis said.

They got the call two days later — faster than the long wait for results in much of the U.S. at that point: Both tests had come back positive for the coronavirus.

By then, Francis and his daughter were feeling worse. Mostly concerned for his daughter, Francis told staffers from the Cherokee Nation’s Covid hotline that they were heading to the ER. “I was hurting all over. Every part of me hurt, every joint, everything.” He made it to the hospital, just barely. “I parked and then something happened,” recalled Francis, a former college track athlete. “It all changed just like that. I could barely walk a step. I just barely made it to the door of the ER. I could barely talk. All I could say was ‘I’m sick.’ Almost like a cry.” Some of the health workers were people Francis has known for decades. He didn’t recognize any of them.

A CT scan confirmed he had pneumonia. “I wasn’t gasping for air, but I just didn’t have enough oxygen,” he said. He was placed in an isolation room at the nation’s W.W. Hastings Hospital, with just a window on the door — “like a cell,” he said.

All the hospital staff were fully garbed in PPE. “Not just a face mask, but a hazmat suit, everything,” he said. A nurse offered him remdesivir and blood plasma from recovered patients containing Covid-19 antibodies, thinking she’d have to convince him to take them because the drugs were experimental. Without hesitation, Francis said, “Yes. Just put it in me.” He was discharged five days later.

“Whatever they did at the Indian hospital to take care of me, it worked,” said Francis, calling the physicians and nurses who cared for him “my heroes.”

Back home, Francis quarantined for 22 days at the behest of Cherokee Nation public health workers, who called regularly to monitor him. Francis can’t say enough about the quality of the health care he’s received since getting infected and what an improvement it is over care he received as a youth. Francis grew up in Fort Cobb, Okla., population 634, and still recalls “sitting in folding chairs, outside, all day, to be seen in this itty-bitty clinic.”

“I’ve seen a lot of Indian Country in my lifetime,” said Francis, who is a citizen of the Caddo Nation but was eligible to receive care at Cherokee Nation facilities because he is Native American. “It’s my opinion the Cherokee Nation is doing the best to take care of Native Americans in their area.”

“We don’t want to be at the mercy of the U.S. failure to ensure our people are safe.”

Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr.

While he credits the federal government for making remdesivir available, Francis said he’s disappointed with leadership in his state. He followed Hoskin’s lead instead of state guidance earlier this year when he closed the Blackfox American Legion Post #135 he ran until July. “I followed the Cherokee Nation lead to keep our veterans safe,” he said. “We have a huge number of Native American veterans at our post and so many of them are older.”

Still recovering, Francis is staying mostly at home, following news about the virus closely, and advising people to wear a mask and not make masking a political issue. He’s still unsure how or where he was infected. He’s lost eight people he knows to the virus, including an uncle who died of Covid this weekend. While Francis’ entire nuclear family was infected, they are all now doing well. His daughter recovered at home; his wife had a mild case; and his son, a track athlete and member of the Oklahoma National Guard, was asymptomatic.

Francis said he feels blessed as he continues to read about high death rates in other tribal areas of the U.S., about families who have lost multiple members, and about those found dead in their homes after receiving little medical care or follow up. “Native Americans,” he said, “have a history of not doing well with infections that originate in other continents.”

Dion
“Whatever they did at the Indian hospital to take care of me, it worked,” said Dion Francis, 59, who was treated for Covid-19 at the Cherokee Nation’s W.W. Hastings Hospital.

Holders of history and culture, Cherokee elders are revered; the population of those for whom Cherokee is their first language is shrinking rapidly. “When you’re losing Cherokee speakers and artisans, you’re losing more than your grandparents,” said Bill John Baker, a former Cherokee Nation principal chief. “You’re losing what it means to be Cherokee.”

When it became clear the virus was putting older people at risk, the Cherokee Nation acted swiftly to protect them. In March, Hoskin declared a state of emergency and asked all citizens to help shield elders. The nation set up a Cherokee-language Covid hotline for first language speakers, delivered meals, and offered all citizens over 62 a $400 stipend to help with virus-related expenses. “At Cherokee Nation, putting elders first is simply our way of life,” Hoskin wrote in one of his alerts.

One of those first language speakers is D.J. McCarter, 79, pastor of the Elm Tree Baptist Church, where he teaches Cherokee language through song and Sunday school. McCarter has presided over the funerals of eight coronavirus victims. One was a close relative. Some were designated Cherokee National Treasures for their work in preserving Cherokee art and culture. One was skilled at making bows. Four were Cherokee first language speakers. “They’re dying off,” McCarter said. “And we’re losing that traditional knowledge.”

McCarter, whose wife has been shopping for other elders to keep them safe, said he’s been dismayed to see younger people in the local Walmart, where the Cherokee Nation is unable to enforce its mask mandate, going unmasked, or wearing masks pulled down below their chins. “I just thought to myself, this is idiotic,” he said. “I have emphysema and COPD, so if I get it, it’s going to be goodbye to me.”

McCarter’s done his part at his church. While he says he would be allowed to hold services indoors, he moved services outdoors, even on Easter Sunday. People sit on chairs, socially distanced, to listen via speakers. Now that the weather has turned colder, McCarter has rigged up an FM transmitter, so church members can park and listen to the sermon from the safety of their cars.

“They’re all for it,” he said of his congregation of about 70 people. He thinks the safer outdoor service is also attracting new worshippers. “I don’t know who they are, but I see a lot of cars I don’t recognize,” he said, adding, “We’re not going to go back inside until I get the all clear.”

The coordinated and rapid response of the Cherokee Nation was possible, Pivec said, because it builds on a strong health care system — the nation’s largest tribal health system — that has been decades in the making.

Many credit former Chief Baker for the transformation. One of Baker’s first actions when he took office in 2012 was to sell the tribe’s $1.5 million private jet to help pay for medical services. He also directed hundreds of millions of tribal profits in recent years toward health care projects, upgrading many rural clinics and commissioning a state-of-the-art outpatient facility that opened last year with specialized ventilation and the ability to separate patients, features that have proven extremely useful during the pandemic.

“The facility is breathtaking to look at, and when you get into the logistics, it’s mind blowing,” said Michele Marshall, a nurse manager who oversees nursing staff at the new facility and the hospital. “We have separate clinics with air exchange and negative air pressure. My staff feels very safe.”

The Cherokee Nation’s W.W. Hastings Hospital

The U.S. government is obligated by treaty to provide medical care to members of all federally recognized tribes. But the Indian Health Service annual budget of about $5 billion is far less than the $37 billion the National Indian Health Board estimates is needed; so some tribes, including the Cherokee Nation, supplement IHS funding with their own treasuries.

Marshall said she’s thankful for the abundance of PPE her staff has received. “The team that was responsible for getting PPE, they knocked it out of the park,” she said. Marshall and her nurses are extremely proud of the high survival rate of their Covid patients. “We’re hitting patients with everything we’re able,” she said. “Convalescent plasma, antibiotics, remdesivir, steroids. They get it all.”

Marshall said she’s been stunned to see how differently patients respond to the virus. “We had a 101-year-old man who beat it with flying colors, yet we lost a 39-year-old woman who was scheduled to go home the next day,” she said. She is now facing a new surge of cases with a staff that’s exhausted “mentally, physically, and emotionally” because they’ve had to not only provide nursing care, but also lend emotional support to patients cut off from their families. Marshall said she’s been juggling schedules and hiring contract nurses so she can get her staff the rest they need. “I tell them it’s not a sprint. It’s a marathon,” she said.

Like many health care workers in the Cherokee Nation, Marshall is a Cherokee citizen. Nationwide, less than 1% of physicians are Native American. At the Cherokee Nation, 27% of physicians are tribally affiliated and the tribe hopes to increase that number further. The Cherokee Nation is erecting a medical school building and launched a partnership with the Oklahoma State University College of Osteopathic Medicine to create the nation’s first tribally affiliated medical school. More than 20% of students in the inaugural class that started this fall are Native American.

“Just as our ancestors grew their own teachers 150 years ago,” Baker said, “we want to grow our own doctors.”

One of those home-grown doctors is Stephn Drywater, who works in the emergency room of W.W. Hastings, the hospital where he was born 34 years ago, and where the virus is keeping him on his toes. “Eight months into this, I’m still surprised daily,” Drywater said. “Some people are critically ill, others have no idea they have it, that’s the scary thing.”

Drywater said the risk he’s personally facing is always a concern, particularly because of his grandparents, and the three young daughters he has at home. But he has plenty of PPE and even more motivation. “I grew up 15 minutes from here,” he said in a telephone interview just as he was leaving an exhausting ER shift. “I basically want to do everything I can to help this community.”

While the tribe faces many challenges as cases rise on and off reservation land — among them asking people who are used to congregating in large family gatherings to stay apart — Pivec said she’s proud to see how much the practices she and her team have put in place have helped.

The Cherokee Nation, it seems, may have lessons for us all. “I hope our response as a nation demonstrates what being in a tribe means,” Pivec said. “It’s collectively caring for one another.”

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Tuesday, November 24, 2020 2:28 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Thank you for wading through the mostly bullshit and doublespeak that was the NYT article. I myself wouldn't have the patience to sift thru all of that. What I noticed is that they seem to think that if they can't link a case to a social gathering EXCLUSIVELY they discount social gatherings completely. That doesn't make sense. If you see a big jump of cases after Thanksgiving I suppose that will be their answer right away, but it will be too late. FWIW, I feel very safe outdoors. I put up my surgical mask when someone approaches, and chat at a safe distance with my neighbors. I mostly count on sun, wind, and distance, and so far it seems to be working.

I did notice this, however

Quote:
Most states don’t collect or report detailed information about the exposure that led to a new infection. But in states where a breakdown is available, long-term care facilities, food processing plants, prisons, health care settings, and restaurants and bars are still the leading sources of spread, the data suggest.

As someone who has recently had a spate of doctors visits, and who will be having more in the near future, I wonder what this means. I DO wear my N95 when at the doctor's office.

But just OOC, what about the dentist? It's not like you can mask up and have them look in your mouth!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Tuesday, November 24, 2020 3:20 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

When it comes to health care settings, I think they mean infections of personnel.

Anyway, to comment a bit about the NYTimes article and the whole topic of spread ...

Do you remember the joke about the guy looking for his lost car keys at night under a streetlight? And someone asks him where he lost them and he says I think I lost them outside my home. And they person asks then why are you looking here? And the guy says it's because it's where the light is!

That's kind of like COVID-19 testing and discovery v actual spread. Early on there already was community spread at some level that was completely unnoticed and unaccounted at the time. And the only people they were testing were people who'd been in China, or were 'close contacts' of people who'd been in China. Not testing anywhere else meant of course they didn't find anything anywhere else. And so they assumed it didn't exist anywhere else.

(BTW very early on I said that the medical system at large would detect a viral outbreak in the community because of increased numbers of people ill and dying from pneumonia. I credited it with being far more alert than it really is. Only in retrospect did it notice, when people looked back and said - oh look here! Here are the early numbers we missed!)

When there were superspreader events that finally brought community COVID-19 to notice, it changed the medical community's understanding of where it was. After a short hesitation of a month of so claiming it was only a few isolated outbreaks and people in general were at low risk, they finally admitted there was general community spread. But then they were stuck on superspreading as the one and only paradigm. And at the time, that was probably the most prominent mode of spread, because, at the time, it hadn't entered the community at large in large numbers.

(The paper showing that COVID-19 should die out without superspreaders because it follows the 20/80 rule and 80% of people don't spread COVID-19 or only spread it to one other person was flawed, imo. It didn't take into account the 'lifestyles' of the population. An examination of that might have showed that the Hong Kong residents they studied had a Swedish mostly-self-isolating lifestyle.)

(I also had tried to game-out how COVID-19 might spread in rural communities, and figured that small towns would be vulnerable because everybody knows and interacts with everybody else; and that the only people spared would be remote farms where nobody goes into town.)

Anyway, time, and an unhindered exponential growth later - and what there is is COVID-19 well-seeded throughout communities. Wyoming for example currently has a 77.2% positive testing rate. Mississippi has an 86% positive testing rate.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/map/percent-positive

At THIS point, it's pretty obvious (to me) that the MAIN mode of spread under these conditions is small-gathering/ general public. Yanno, there just aren't enough superspreader events in Wyoming and Mississippi to account for all their cases.

The time to have managed this was before it went viral, so to speak. (As I also noted very early on) small numbers aren't reassuring. They just mean you're at the beginning of an exponential curve. The idiots in the states that didn't require masks back then when they would have done the most good, are finding out that sometimes, it pays to look down the road and be proactive, instead of driving pedal to the metal looking in the rearview and being reactive.

Well, whatever. It COULD have been far far better than this. It really didn't have to be this way.

Now all anyone can do is cross their fingers and hope that the potential long-term consequences of COVID-19 - like heart and kidney failure, strokes and dementia, asthma and COPD and respiratory failure - don't materialize.

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Tuesday, November 24, 2020 5:20 PM

Kiki, thank you for posting that article.

I am so glad to see the Cherokee doing so well in the bad time.

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Friday, November 27, 2020 4:17 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/scientifically-illiterate-
scotus-covid-decision-sachs/index.html

Supreme Court's scientifically illiterate decision will cost lives

It will. As does anti-masking, and other belief-based attitudes. Religions, literal and figurative, are based in denying reality.

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Friday, November 27, 2020 4:21 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

previous predictions

Quote:
The previous ensemble forecast, published November 5, projected up to 266,000 coronavirus deaths by November 28.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts there will be 260,000 to 282,000 coronavirus deaths by December 5, according to a forecast published Thursday.

Another widely-used Covid-19 model is predicting 438,941 deaths by March 1. That model is run by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

But if states relax restrictions and mask mandates, deaths could hit a staggering 587,000 by March 1, the IHME said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/27/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.
html

nearly another 60,000 people could lose their lives over the next three weeks, according to an ensemble forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week

It sure would have been nice of them to post a link and actual numbers and dates.

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Friday, November 27, 2020 4:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/scientifically-illiterate-
scotus-covid-decision-sachs/index.html

Supreme Court's scientifically illiterate decision will cost lives

It will. As does anti-masking, and other belief-based attitudes. Religions, literal and figurative, are based in denying reality.

Cool.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, November 27, 2020 4:41 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

SIGNY - the next few months are going to be a time where you definitely don't want to get sick.

Quote:
New COVID-19 spike spreading beyond urban areas to all corners of California

The data suggest California will face new problems in December if the unprecedented rise in cases continues. In earlier phases of the pandemic, different parts of California could help harder-hit areas, like San Diego County and San Francisco taking in patients from Imperial County. But that could be difficult in this wave, with the pandemic worsening in most places across California simultaneously.

“We can’t depend on our counties next to us because they are under the same stress and strain,” said Dr. Marty Fenstersheib, the Santa Clara County COVID-19 testing officer. “They can’t provide us with beds in their counties. So we are on our own. And our hospitals are hurting at this point.”

https://ktla.com/news/california/new-covid-19-spike-spreading-beyond-u
rban-areas-to-all-corners-of-california/

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Friday, November 27, 2020 5:55 PM

But before these next few months and subsequently after these next few months is the time where you DO want to get sick.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, December 4, 2020 5:33 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

The state {CA} reported 21,185 new cases on Thursday alone, the second-highest figure ever for a single day. The record, 21,848, was set Monday — though that number was inflated somewhat by reporting delays over the Thanksgiving weekend.
The unprecedented case counts aren't merely a byproduct of ramped-up testing, either. The average rate at which coronavirus tests are coming back positive has also soared recently, from 5.2% two weeks ago to 7.7%.
Statewide, 8,831 Californians were hospitalized with a confirmed case as of Wednesday — an all-time high and nearly double the number seen two weeks ago. There are also more coronavirus-positive patients in intensive care, 2,066, than ever before.
Faced with COVID-19's relentless acceleration, the state on Thursday pulled an emergency brake — announcing new and far-reaching restrictions tied to regional strains on critical care services.

For purposes of the new statewide order, officials carved California into five regions: Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley, the Bay Area, the Greater Sacramento area and rural Northern California.
Additional restrictions — such as closing hair and nail salons, playgrounds, zoos, museums, aquariums and wineries; and requiring restaurants to return to takeout service only — would be implemented when a region’s intensive care unit capacity falls below 15%.
The new stay-at-home order takes effect Saturday, and the earliest it would be imposed is Sunday.
So far, none of the regions have dipped below the state-set threshold — though officials have said they expect all of them will do so soon.
Like the state, L.A. County is contending with unprecedented numbers of new infections and hospitalizations.
The county set records for both Thursday — reporting an all-time-daily high of 7,713 new cases and 2,668 patients with a confirmed case in its hospitals.
https://news.yahoo.com/state-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-190525324
.html

Four of the regions are expected to have less than 15% of ICU capacity by early December: Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley, the greater Sacramento area and rural Northern California. The Bay Area is expected to hit that threshold in mid- to late December.
Here’s the current available ICU capacity by region, based on actual numbers, according to the California Health and Human Services Agency:
Bay Area: 25.4%
Greater Sacramento: 22%
Southern California: 20.6%
San Joaquin Valley: 19.7%
Rural Northern California: 18.6%
https://news.yahoo.com/californias-stay-home-order-hit-154909553.html

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Friday, December 4, 2020 7:39 PM

Guess we're really screwed if something bad ever comes along.

What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)

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Wednesday, December 9, 2020 7:03 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

It seems that people with "significant" allergies should not get the Pfizer vaccine, as they can experience anaphylactoid reactions.

Guess I don't have to think too hard about the vaccine, since I have significant allergies and carry an epipen with me.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, December 9, 2020 7:19 PM

... stay crunchy...

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Guess I don't have to think too hard about the vaccine, since I have significant allergies and carry an epipen with me.

Chin up - it's just one of many vaccines, and I'm sure Pfizer will recalibrate based on these findings.

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Wednesday, December 9, 2020 7:53 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Guess I don't have to think too hard about the vaccine, since I have significant allergies and carry an epipen with me.

Chin up - it's just one of many vaccines, and I'm sure Pfizer will recalibrate based on these findings.

I sure hope so.

Thanks for the encouraging words!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, December 9, 2020 9:21 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I saw that too. Considering my last reaction to Prevnar-13 (pneumonia) I guess the Pfizer vax is not for me either.

But there are many others, even ones based on a completely different technology with different proteins. So I'm keeping an eye out for their suitability.

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Saturday, December 12, 2020 3:00 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

First, the more nuanced, accurate reporting by the LATimes.

The FDA didn’t ‘approve’ Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine. Here’s why

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-12-12/why-fda-didnt-approve
-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-eua

What the LATimes notes is that the vaccine got "emergency use authorization", not "approval".

And now for the shading into downright misrepresentation.

FDA authorizes Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fda-approves-pfizer-vaccine-emergency-use
-fight-covid-19/

First Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine shipments to be delivered to US distribution sites starting Monday

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/12/covid-vaccine-di
stribution-first-pfizer-shipments-arrive-monday/6521379002/

With F.D.A. approval, Pfizer will ship millions of vaccine doses immediately.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/world/millions-of-pfizer-vaccine-do
ses-to-be-shipped-immediately-after-fda-approval.html

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