REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Thursday, October 12, 2023 02:05
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Sunday, April 12, 2020 1:59 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Interesting - clot busting drugs might work on the sickest patients -

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/doctor-gambles-clot-busting-dr
ug-save-virus-patients-70100830

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Sunday, April 12, 2020 3:07 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Interesting - clot busting drugs might work on the sickest patients -

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/doctor-gambles-clot-busting-dr
ug-save-virus-patients-70100830

Well, that is good news! Thanks for that!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, April 12, 2020 12:49 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.




Like the last report, now with MORE PATIENTS!

Quote:

WHO is investigating reports of recovered COVID patients testing positive again
April 10
Stephanie Nebehay


GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that it was looking into reports of some COVID-19 patients testing positive again after initially testing negative for the disease while being considered for discharge.

South Korean officials on Friday reported 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again. Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told a briefing that the virus may have been “reactivated” rather than the patients being re-infected.

The Geneva-based WHO, asked about the report from Seoul, told Reuters in a brief statement: “We are aware of these reports of individuals who have tested negative for COVID-19 using PCR (polymerase chain reaction) testing and then after some days testing positive again.

“We are closely liaising with our clinical experts and working hard to get more information on those individual cases. It is important to make sure that when samples are collected for testing on suspected patients, procedures are followed properly,” it said.

According to the WHO’s guidelines on clinical management, a patient can be discharged from hospital after two consecutive negative results in a clinically recovered patient at least 24 hours apart, it added.

Based on current studies, there is a period of about two weeks between the onset of symptoms and clinical recovery of patients with mild COVID-19 disease, the agency said.

“We are aware that some patients are PCR positive after they clinically recover, but we need systematic collection of samples from recovered patients to better understand how long they shed live virus,” it said.
FILE PHOTO: A South Korean patient affected with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) casts her ballot for the parliamentary election at a polling station set up at a quarantine center in Yongin, South Korea, April 11, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo

South Korean health officials said on Friday that it remains unclear what is behind the trend, with epidemiological investigations still under way.

“As COVID-19 is a new disease, we need more epidemiological data to draw any conclusions of virus shedding profile,” the WHO said.

The number of deaths linked to the novel coronavirus reached 100,000 on Friday, as reported cases passed 1.6 million, according to a Reuters tally.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-is-inves
tigating-reports-of-recovered-covid-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21T0F1


This may slow, if not eventually halt altogther, the drive towards creating a vaccine. As KIKI said, the question is whether these people are infectious. Also, Why were these particular people retested? Were they symptomatic, or is this just a laboratory finding from a larger study? The article leaves out a lot of relevant information.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, April 12, 2020 1:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Yeah, but if you don't tell people what topic it is you're posting about, you're an idiot.

MEANWHILE, I noticed that besides being incoherent, as usual you provided no links.

Whatever.

Babble to yourself all you want.

Putting you on ignore.




I was replying to a comment that Sigs made yesterday afternoon in this thread, dummy.

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I've mentioned Sweden as the bellweather nation for the "do nothing" approach, and I'm going to bring it up here again for the sake of continuity and completeness.

There were other "do nothing" nations, most recently Belarus, which had early on decided to keep the economy going but is now quietly changing its approach and asking Russia for help. Brazil continues its "do nothing" policy. India, in reality, can do nothing, altho to government virtue-signals its lockdown.

Neither Modi (India) nor Bolsanaro (Brazil) have the capacity to even know what's going on in their infamous slums/favelas. People could be keeling over at home from Covid, but until bodies start piling up in the streets, like in Ecuador, nobody will be the wiser. The total number of deaths will probably be drastically under-reported, not only because the governments have an interest in doing so, but their medical infrastructure is so woefully underpowered compared to the size of the population it would be a Herculean task just to come up with a decent tally.

In those other threads I mentioned that we can rely on Sweden's reporting, partly because Sweden has a well-developed medical and reporting system.

But then I remembered ... Sweden notoriously under-reported crimes by ME migrants, and made it illegal to even mention the ethnicity of the criminals. So Sweden isn't necessarily transparent either. Altho they have the capability for proper reporting, their history with their migrant problem shows they don't mind bending the truth ... alot ... in favor of government policy.

So, I would use their stats with caution, and be on the lookout for things like "excess deaths", not necessarily related to Covid-19.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME





This is an AB conversation. C your way out of it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 12, 2020 2:58 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:


Like the last report, now with MORE PATIENTSS!

Quote:

WHO is investigating reports of recovered COVID patients testing positive again
April 10
Stephanie Nebehay


GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that it was looking into reports of some COVID-19 patients testing positive again after initially testing negative for the disease while being considered for discharge.

South Korean officials on Friday reported 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again. Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told a briefing that the virus may have been “reactivated” rather than the patients being re-infected.

The Geneva-based WHO, asked about the report from Seoul, told Reuters in a brief statement: “We are aware of these reports of individuals who have tested negative for COVID-19 using PCR (polymerase chain reaction) testing and then after some days testing positive again.

“We are closely liaising with our clinical experts and working hard to get more information on those individual cases. It is important to make sure that when samples are collected for testing on suspected patients, procedures are followed properly,” it said.

According to the WHO’s guidelines on clinical management, a patient can be discharged from hospital after two consecutive negative results in a clinically recovered patient at least 24 hours apart, it added.

Based on current studies, there is a period of about two weeks between the onset of symptoms and clinical recovery of patients with mild COVID-19 disease, the agency said.

“We are aware that some patients are PCR positive after they clinically recover, but we need systematic collection of samples from recovered patients to better understand how long they shed live virus,” it said.
FILE PHOTO: A South Korean patient affected with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) casts her ballot for the parliamentary election at a polling station set up at a quarantine center in Yongin, South Korea, April 11, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo

South Korean health officials said on Friday that it remains unclear what is behind the trend, with epidemiological investigations still under way.

“As COVID-19 is a new disease, we need more epidemiological data to draw any conclusions of virus shedding profile,” the WHO said.

The number of deaths linked to the novel coronavirus reached 100,000 on Friday, as reported cases passed 1.6 million, according to a Reuters tally.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-is-inves
tigating-reports-of-recovered-covid-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21T0F1


This may slow, if not eventually halt altogther, the drive towards creating a vaccine. As KIKI said, the question is whether these people are infectious. Also, Why were these particular people retested? Were they symptomatic, or is this just a laboratory finding from a larger study? The article leaves out a lot of relevant information.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
#WEARAMASK



In sum: the idea that antibodies = immunity is unproven at best, and there are some early indications it's false. But I don't see that being mentioned in the media by responsible medical or epidemiological people. So IMO it's beyond being over-hyped and veering into propaganda by people who know better.

~~~~~~~~


This whole drive towards antibodies as being the magic key is unproven, and imo really tenuous. I haven't been deeply searching the inet, but at the same time I haven't seen ANY indication that antibodies are helpful. I read they tried infusing gamma globulins from recovered patients into very ill patients - but I didn't read of any results. Why not? Perhaps it wasn't successful.

IDK why no responsible person has mentioned how unproven all that is.

BTW I surmise they were symptomatic, which is why they got re-tested.

But returning to a positive test result goes along with finding other continuously abnormal test results (like abnormal blood tests for liver function) after what was assumed to be a full recovery without either symptoms or virus, and even after mild COVID-19.

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Monday, April 13, 2020 4:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


ZH has been writing articles about a Morgan Stanley forecast over the last number of weeks. Though it's usually pretty good about linking originals, they haven't been doing that for this series, so it may be internal documentation not for publication.

Here's the link to the latest:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/morgan-stanley-publishes-full-timelin
e-upcoming-coronavirus-milestones-sees-second


Now, these are analyzed and written (according to this article) by a JPMorgan "biotech strategist", so the article is heavy on vaccines and pharmaceuticals, with no mention of masks and hand sanitizers.

Yep. Soak 'em while they're desperate.

Nevertheless, there's some interesting information in this series.

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Monday, April 13, 2020 4:56 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Hi to you all. I hope you are staying safe and well my friends. Take care, stay at home and stay sane xxx

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Monday, April 13, 2020 5:05 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


The bad news is US 'new infections' hasn't started to drop. The good news is it's still leveled-off in the 30,000 - 35,000 per-day range since April 4, 2020.

While NY(NYC) used to dominate the numbers in terms of new cases, it now is down to a quarter of all new cases in the US. So other states are picking up the slack and keeping new cases from dropping. As NY(NYC) drops even further and fades from view, I suspect we'll get a bump up because of the totality of states on the upslope.

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Monday, April 13, 2020 5:07 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Hi Magons! How're things down there?

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Monday, April 13, 2020 5:20 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Hi Ikiki
All going ok - I’m almost ashamed to say I’m enjoying the lockdown as it gives me a much needed break from much of my life lol

I’m lucky - I’m still able to work from home, I have a roof over my head and plenty of internet, food and supplies are all good and we are all healthy. Lots to be grateful for.

I’m really saddened by what’s happening there - especially NY - awful.

Thinking of you all - hope sanity rules and the lockdown continues until guided by people who actually have some expertise in virus management
??

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Monday, April 13, 2020 5:34 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I'm glad to hear you're doing well!

So am I. I've since retired, and even before this, I preferred to be a homebody. So at home is really fine by me!

Sadly, US policy is driven by competition between denialists v high-profit/ high-tech/ high-intrusion (and that includes Fauci). It's either one or the other. Either nothing is wrong and throw the doors open, or it all depends on vaccine$$$! pharmaceutical$$$! immunity certificate$$$! Nobody seems to be taking a middle-road, common sense approach. Sigh. It's kinda' crazy, imo.

In any case, yeah, I too am enjoying this quiet interlude. I can go shopping without driving through maddening traffic! I can breathe clean air (a miracle here in SoCal!). The freeway noise doesn't whoosh in the background day and night! And I'm enjoying learning how to cook with 'stockpile' food - aka beans. I've discovered the secret to making perfect beans every time, if you like your beans unbroken on the outside, and creamy and buttery smooth on the inside, like I do.

So, so far, I'm doing well. !!

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Monday, April 13, 2020 5:46 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Good to hear. Retirement sounds good. I’m a long, long way off that

I’m all for go in hard and fast on the lockdown - it gives the health care system a chance of coping with the inevitable infections. If you guys are comparing responses - New Zealand is worth looking at.

I was so lucky to have a brief holiday there in February- what a gorgeous place - I want to live there

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Monday, April 13, 2020 6:09 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Well there were a things that were done wrong here at the start, imo. One of them was the lack of testing, which led the CDC to restrict testing to a very narrow range of people and to scrap its intended surveillance program; and that led it to miss community spread. (Its intended surveillance program was supposed to test people for SARS-COV-2 who came in to the ER with flu-like symptoms who tested negative for the flu.) But the surveillance testing never got off the ground at the start, and we still don't have either adequate testing or a surveillance program.

If you start testing early enough, you can individually trace the place where the person got the virus, and their subsequent contacts, and quarantine them to limit the spread. But that only works for small numbers with individual contacts. Once you get community spread, it fails completely.

And then, rather than ask for help to ramp up, the US (CDC) stuck itself to a failed scheme.

And then there's the US health system, which makes even just going to the doctor if you're sick prohibitively expensive. So even sick people don't go unless they're too ill to carry on.

The US did a horrible job at the beginning, which led to uncontrollable community spread, which led to needing to issue stay-at-home orders.

And the problem with stay-at-home - aside from tens to hundreds of thousands of people being out of work - is that you can't do it forever. Sooner or later you need to get past it. So you need to have a plan to restart normal activities.


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Monday, April 13, 2020 6:59 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


True and a pure capitalist system fails

A good free health system is vital - more so now but at any time
If you have safety nets in place - it can be ridden out
The aim if iso is to stagger the cases in hospital - that’s what flatten the curve is about
Once the curve flattens - you can loosen restrictions- but it should be less next time around - that’s what the statistions have been saying as far I can see
The news is pretty muddy in the U S - I try to avoid it - it does my head in

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Monday, April 13, 2020 9:27 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


From WaPo: "Prominent Virginia pastor who preached that ‘God is larger than this dreaded virus’ dies of covid-19"

I laughed so hard I wheezed and coughed. Whoever knew WaPo had a sense of irony!

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Monday, April 13, 2020 10:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
From WaPo: "Prominent Virginia pastor who preached that ‘God is larger than this dreaded virus’ dies of covid-19"

I laughed so hard I wheezed and coughed. Whoever knew WaPo had a sense of irony!




God let his own kid bleed out on a cross.

Pretty sure the pastor wasn't under any illusion that people aren't going to die of the virus. Even if they believe really, really hard.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, April 13, 2020 11:20 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So I looked up the pastor, because I was curious. Was he a humble man of god with a strong faith that 'thy will be done'?

It looks like no. Apparently he was a defiant blowhard who didn't mind putting people at risk. And while his sermon has been removed from the inet, some parts remain:


An evangelical pastor died of COVID-19 just weeks after proudly showing off how packed his Virginia church was — and vowing to keep preaching “unless I’m in jail or the hospital.”

In his last known in-person service on March 22, Bishop Gerald O. Glenn got his congregation at Richmond’s New Deliverance Evangelistic Church to stand to prove how many were there despite warnings against gatherings of more than 10 people.

“I firmly believe that God is larger than this dreaded virus. You can quote me on that,” he said, repeating it a second time to claps, saying that “people are healed” in his church.

Happily announcing he was being “controversial” by being “in violation” of safety protocols — with “way more than 10 people” at the church — he vowed to keep his church open “unless I’m in jail or the hospital.”

“I am essential,” he said of remaining open, saying, “I’m a preacher — I talk to God!”

https://citinewsroom.com/2020/04/virginia-pastor-who-defiantly-held-ch
urch-service-dies-of-coronavirus
/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-s
ervice-dies-of-coronavirus
/

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Monday, April 13, 2020 11:51 PM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by MAGONSDAUGHTER:
Hi Ikiki
All going ok - I’m almost ashamed to say I’m enjoying the lockdown as it gives me a much needed break from much of my life lol

I’m lucky - I’m still able to work from home, I have a roof over my head and plenty of internet, food and supplies are all good and we are all healthy. Lots to be grateful for.

I’m really saddened by what’s happening there - especially NY - awful.

Thinking of you all - hope sanity rules and the lockdown continues until guided by people who actually have some expertise in virus management
??



Hi Magon. Glad to see you are okay.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 12:02 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Who Is Immune to the Coronavirus?

About this question, too, decisions with great consequences are being made, as they must be, based on only glimmers of data.

By Marc Lipsitch

Mr. Lipsitch is an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist.
April 13, 2020
Santi Palacios/Associated Press

Among the many uncertainties that remain about Covid-19 is how the human immune system responds to infection and what that means for the spread of the disease. Immunity after any infection can range from lifelong and complete to nearly nonexistent. So far, however, only the first glimmers of data are available about immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19.

What can scientists, and the decision makers who rely on science to inform policies, do in such a situation? The best approach is to construct a conceptual model — a set of assumptions about how immunity might work — based on current knowledge of the immune system and information about related viruses, and then identify how each aspect of that model might be wrong, how one would know and what the implications would be. Next, scientists should set out to work to improve this understanding with observation and experiment.

The ideal scenario — once infected, a person is completely immune for life — is correct for a number of infections. The Danish physician Peter Panum famously figured this out for measles when he visited the Faroe Islands (between Scotland and Iceland) during an outbreak in 1846 and found that residents over 65 who had been alive during a previous outbreak in 1781 were protected. This striking observation helped launch the fields of immunology and epidemiology — and ever since, as in many other disciplines, the scientific community has learned that often things are more complicated.

One example of “more complicated” is immunity to coronaviruses, a large group of viruses that sometimes jump from animal hosts to humans: SARS-CoV-2 is the third major coronavirus epidemic to affect humans in recent times, after the SARS outbreak of 2002-3 and the MERS outbreak that started in 2012.

Much of our understanding of coronavirus immunity comes not from SARS or MERS, which have infected comparatively small numbers of people, but from the coronaviruses that spread every year causing respiratory infections ranging from a common cold to pneumonia. In two separate studies, researchers infected human volunteers with a seasonal coronavirus and about a year later inoculated them with the same or a similar virus to observe whether they had acquired immunity.

In the first study, researchers selected 18 volunteers who developed colds after they were inoculated — or “challenged,” as the term goes — with one strain of coronavirus in 1977 or 1978. Six of the subjects were re-challenged a year later with the same strain, and none was infected, presumably thanks to protection acquired with their immune response to the first infection. The other 12 volunteers were exposed to a slightly different strain of coronavirus a year later, and their protection to that was only partial.

In another study published in 1990, 15 volunteers were inoculated with a coronavirus; 10 were infected. Fourteen returned for another inoculation with the same strain a year later: They displayed less severe symptoms and their bodies produced less of the virus than after the initial challenge, especially those who had shown a strong immune response the first time around.

No such human-challenge experiments have been conducted to study immunity to SARS and MERS. But measurements of antibodies in the blood of people who have survived those infections suggest that these defenses persist for some time: two years for SARS, according to one study, and almost three years for MERS, according to another one. However, the neutralizing ability of these antibodies — a measure of how well they inhibit virus replication — was already declining during the study periods.

These studies form the basis for an educated guess at what might happen with Covid-19 patients. After being infected with SARS-CoV-2, most individuals will have an immune response, some better than others. That response, it may be assumed, will offer some protection over the medium term — at least a year — and then its effectiveness might decline.

Other evidence supports this model. A recent peer-reviewed study led by a team from Erasmus University, in the Netherlands, published data from 12 patients showing that they had developed antibodies after infection with SARS-CoV-2. Several of my colleagues and students and I have statistically analyzed thousands of seasonal coronavirus cases in the United States and used a mathematical model to infer that immunity over a year or so is likely for the two seasonal coronaviruses most closely related to SARS-CoV-2 — an indication perhaps of how immunity to SARS-CoV-2 itself might also behave.

If it is true that infection creates immunity in most or all individuals and that the protection lasts a year or more, then the infection of increasing numbers of people in any given population will lead to the buildup of so-called herd immunity. As more and more people become immune to the virus, an infected individual has less and less chance of coming into contact with a person susceptible to infection. Eventually, herd immunity becomes pervasive enough that an infected person on average infects less than one other person; at that point, the number of cases starts to go down. If herd immunity is widespread enough, then even in the absence of measures designed to slow transmission, the virus will be contained — at least until immunity wanes or enough new people susceptible to infection are born.

At the moment, cases of Covid-19 have been undercounted because of limited testing — perhaps by a factor of 10 in some places, like Italy as of late last month. If the undercounting is around this level in other countries as well, then a majority of the population in much (if not all) of the world still is susceptible to infection, and herd immunity is a minor phenomenon right now. The long-term control of the virus depends on getting a majority of people to become immune, through infection and recovery or through vaccination — how large a majority depends on yet other parameters of the infection that remain unknown.

One concern has to do with the possibility of reinfection. South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently reported that 91 patients who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and then tested negative for the virus later tested positive again. If some of these cases were indeed reinfections, they would cast doubt on the strength of the immunity the patients had developed.

An alternative possibility, which many scientists think is more likely, is that these patients had a false negative test in the middle of an ongoing infection, or that the infection had temporarily subsided and then re-emerged. South Korea’s C.D.C. is now working to assess the merit of all these explanations. As with other diseases for which it can be difficult to distinguish a new infection from a new flare-up of an old infection — like tuberculosis — the issue might be resolved by comparing the viral genome sequence from the first and the second periods of infection.

For now, it is reasonable to assume that only a minority of the world’s population is immune to SARS-CoV-2, even in hard-hit areas. How could this tentative picture evolve as better data come in? Early hints suggest that it could change in either direction.

It is possible that many more cases of Covid-19 have occurred than have been reported, even after accounting for limited testing. One recent study (not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that rather than, say, 10 times the number of detected cases, the United States may really have more like 100, or even 1,000, times the official number. This estimate is an indirect inference from statistical correlations. In emergencies, such indirect assessments can be early evidence of an important finding — or statistical flukes. But if this one is correct, then herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could be building faster than the commonly reported figures suggest.

Then again, another recent study (also not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that not every case of infection may be contributing to herd immunity. Of 175 Chinese patients with mild symptoms of Covid-19, 70 percent developed strong antibody responses, but about 25 percent developed a low response and about 5 percent developed no detectable response at all. Mild illness, in other words, might not always build up protection. Similarly, it will be important to study the immune responses of people with asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection to determine whether symptoms, and their severity, predict whether a person becomes immune.

The balance between these uncertainties will become clearer when more serologic surveys, or blood tests for antibodies, are conducted on large numbers of people. Such studies are beginning and should show results soon. Of course, much will depend on how sensitive and specific the various tests are: how well they spot SARS-CoV-2 antibodies when those are present and if they can avoid spurious signals from antibodies to related viruses.

Even more challenging will be understanding what an immune response means for an individual’s risk of getting reinfected and their contagiousness to others. Based on the volunteer experiments with seasonal coronaviruses and the antibody-persistence studies for SARS and MERS, one might expect a strong immune response to SARS-CoV-2 to protect completely against reinfection and a weaker one to protect against severe infection and so still slow the virus’s spread.

But designing valid epidemiologic studies to figure all of this out is not easy — many scientists, including several teams of which I’m a part — are working on the issue right now. One difficulty is that people with a prior infection might differ from people who haven’t yet been infected in many other ways that could alter their future risk of infection. Parsing the role of prior exposure from other risk factors is an example of the classic problem epidemiologists call “confounding” — and it is made maddeningly harder today by the fast-changing conditions of the still-spreading SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

And yet getting a handle on this fast is extremely important: not only to estimate the extent of herd immunity, but also to figure out whether some people can re-enter society safely, without becoming infected again or serving as a vector, and spreading the virus to others. Central to this effort will be figuring out how long protection lasts.

With time, other aspects of immunity will become clearer as well. Experimental and statistical evidence suggests that infection with one coronavirus can offer some degree of immunity against distinct but related coronaviruses. Whether some people are at greater or lesser risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 because of a prior history of exposure to coronaviruses is an open question.

And then there is the question of immune enhancement: Through a variety of mechanisms, immunity to a coronavirus can in some instances exacerbate an infection rather than prevent or mitigate it. This troublesome phenomenon is best known in another group of viruses, the flaviviruses, and may explain why administering a vaccine against dengue fever, a flavivirus infection, can sometimes make the disease worse.

Such mechanisms are still being studied for coronaviruses, but concern that they might be at play is one of the obstacles that have slowed the development of experimental vaccines against SARS and MERS. Guarding against enhancement will also be one of the biggest challenges facing scientists trying to develop vaccines for Covid-19. The good news is that research on SARS and MERS has begun to clarify how enhancement works, suggesting ways around it, and an extraordinary range of efforts is underway to find a vaccine for Covid-19, using multiple approaches.

More science on almost every aspect of this new virus is needed, but in this pandemic, as with previous ones, decisions with great consequences must be made before definitive data are in. Given this urgency, the traditional scientific method — formulating informed hypotheses and testing them by experiments and careful epidemiology — is hyper-accelerated. Given the public’s attention, that work is unusually on display. In these difficult circumstances, I can only hope that this article will seem out of date very shortly — as much more is soon discovered about the coronavirus than is known right now.

Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) is a professor in the Departments of Epidemiology and Immunology and Infectious Diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, where he also directs the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics.

© 2020 The New York Times Company

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immunity.html




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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 1:52 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Regardless of what "scientists" have to say, ya'all better hope that immunity is just like it is with everything else.

There's zero chance that people are going to put up with this lockdown bullshit for much longer. Especially when the "free" money runs out.



Feel free to try it. But it's going to go Mad Max pretty quickly.

We've already trashed the economy so a few old people can live a little bit longer.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 2:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Hey. Johns Hopkins finally added some new info that is actually helpful (if we assume it's even true).

They've added a "total tested" figure at 2,935,006.

Compared to the 582,468 cases, that's roughly 20% of people tested have it. (Unclear if that test even determines if people had it and already recovered, so it might be much, much higher than that too).

20% times 325 Million is 65 Million.

23,621 deaths, divided by 65 Million cases = .003% fatality rate.



We just trashed the world economy for a virus that the flu laughs at.


Good times.



My governor is SOOOOOO being voted out of office.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 2:48 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Honestly there are too many goofs in your post for me to take them time to correct them.


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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 3:13 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Meanwhile, we, our kids, our grand kids and everyone else are going to be paying for the goofs of people who supposedly know what they're talking about.

Have fun paying $10 for a gallon of milk in 2021. Enjoy that $1,200.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 4:02 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Your hero Trump did that.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 5:37 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


A Comic Strip Tour Of The Wild World Of Pandemic Modeling

By Zach Weinersmith, Maggie Koerth, Laura Bronner and Jasmine Mithani

Filed under Coronavirus

Published Apr. 13, 2020

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-wo
rld-of-pandemic-modeling
/


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 11:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Your hero Trump did that.




lol. Okay. Fuck you, Ted.

He didn't shut any of the states down. My state was among those that destroyed their own economy before Trump bought into the propaganda and cancelled Easter.

My state also hasn't gotten a single penny of that unemployment out to anybody a month later, and people are starting to scream.

My governor is out.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 12:39 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Despite all of the questions around incompetent immunoglobulin response and possible reinfection/ reactivation ...

Quote:

Russia ready to start testing coronavirus vaccines on humans in June

AFPApril 7, 2020, 5:22 PM UTC

The head of a major Russian research centre said scientists at a top-secret lab complex located in Koltsovo outside the Siberian city of Novosibirsk had developed several prototype coronavirus vaccines

Moscow (AFP) - The head of a top Russian research centre told President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that his lab was ready to start human trials of experimental coronavirus vaccines in June.

Rinat Maksyutov, head of the Vektor State Virology and Biotechnology Centre, said his facility proposed first-phase clinical trials of three vaccines from June 29, on 180 volunteers.

Maksyutov was speaking during a video-link meeting between Putin and the heads of top research centres.

MORE AT https://news.yahoo.com/russia-ready-start-testing-coronavirus-vaccines
-humans-june-172251566.html




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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 1:11 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


AND ..


Quote:

Coronavirus Vaccine? Two Pharmaceutical Giants Collaborating To Develop One
April 14, 202012:55 PM ET

Two of the world's largest vaccine manufacturers are joining forces to develop a new vaccine to prevent COVID-19.

Usually, the pharmaceutical behemoths GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi are competitors, but in a conference call with reporters, GSK CEO Emma Walmsley said the coronavirus pandemic represented "an unprecedented global health threat," and, therefore, required new ways of doing business.

"We're joining up with Sanofi in an unprecedented collaboration," Walmsley said. "It brings together two of the world's biggest vaccine companies with proven pandemic technologies and significant scale, all with the aim of developing an adjuvanted COVID-19 vaccine."

An adjuvanted vaccine is one that includes a compound known as an adjuvant that enhances someone's immune response to a vaccine. In the partnership, GSK will be providing the adjuvant and Sanofi will provide the specific protein component of the coronavirus that will generate the appropriate antibody response.

GSK is hoping the partnership will reduce the development time of a vaccine considerably. Under normal circumstances, it can take a decade to bring a new vaccine to market.

"But we're planning to start trials in the next few months," Walmsley said. "And if we're successful, subject to regulatory considerations, we aim to complete the development required to make the vaccine available in the second half of 2021."

Johnson & Johnson also provided an update on that company's vaccine plans in a conference call with investors. Chief Scientific Officer Paul Stoffels said the company had identified one lead and two alternate vaccine candidates that it planned to prepare to manufacture.

"Our goal is to be able to produce one billion doses of the vaccine globally," Stoffels said. He added that he hoped to have results of safety data on the first vaccine candidate by the end of the year.

"This could allow vaccine availability under emergency use authorization by 2021," Stoffels said.


https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/14/83416
0187/coronavirus-vaccine-two-pharmaceutical-giants-collaborating-to-develop-one



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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 3:29 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I posted this elsewhere but belongs here

I've been looking at Sweden at this website

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

It does a number of things with the data that I find useful. First of all, it's historic, which means it retains past values as well as showing current updates. Secondly, it's interactive. Under each chart you will be able to select 1) which nation is highlighted and 2) which parameter you wish to chart, for example "deaths" or "confirmed cases" or "new deaths per day"

But more importantly, it has a chart that divides the #of [cases] [deaths] [new deaths/day] [new cases/day] by that nation's population, so large nations with a large number of cases don't look abberantly worse than smaller nations.

Using the PER CAPITA chart, and highlighting Sweden just to make it easier to see, Sweden's PER CAPITA cumulative death rate is right up there with the more well-known shit shows like Spain, Italy, Belgium and France. At one point it was lower than about a dozen other nations, it has now climbed up into 7th or 8th place, depending on where you look at the data. It's also much higher than the other Nordic countries, which have instituted mandatory social distancing.

It does have a strange pattern to the data ... the per capita death rate will climb drastically, then level off, then climb dramatically again. Like Italy's detailed data, it shows a 7-day pattern, so I believe this is an artifact of recording and reporting.

However, like other nations that are instituting lockdowns, its curve is also heeling over. This might simply be a result of the virus hitting the most vulnerable first and causing a a sudden spike in deaths. But if the curves continue as currently shown, Sweden will achieve first place in per capita deaths in about 20 days.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 3:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Hopefully everyone tests their vaccines for safety and effectiveness.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 3:46 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


A historical record of numbers starts here http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&mid=1
097694#1097694
and includes 4 posts that are:

world - countries with greater than 5,000 total cases

US
&
states with greater than 3,000 total cases

California

Los Angeles County

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 4:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


They've done testing on ferrets and ... something else, I forget which. Safety testing in people is the next step.

But how do you test for effectiveness, short of exposing people to the virus? There's no guarantee that another animal's immune response is a good model for ours.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 4:50 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Oh, dear. I heard about this on Chris Martensen's "Peak Prosperity" and looked it up to make sure

Quote:

Novel coronavirus attacks and destroys T cells, just like HIV

Angela Betsaida B. Laguipo, BSNBy Angela Betsaida B. Laguipo, BSNApr 13 2020

The immune system has many components that work together in protecting the body from foreign invaders. One of the most important types of immune cells is T lymphocytes or T cells, a type of white blood cell that acts as the core of adaptive immunity, the system that modifies the immune response to specific pathogens.

Now, a team from the United States and China revealed evidence that the coronavirus disease, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), attacks the immune system’s T lymphocytes. The worrying findings highlight the destructive power of the novel coronavirus, which can destroy the immune system, leaving the patient unable to fight off the infection.

Coronaviruses have been causing problems in humans for a long time. Though many versions of the virus are known to trigger only mild symptoms such as common colds. However, three recent types of coronavirus have caused deadly diseases – the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China in 2002, the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in Saudi Arabia in 2012, and the current global pandemic, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which first emerged in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, in China December 2019.

The impact of the previous coronavirus outbreaks in 2002 and 2012 has been mild compared with the mayhem unleashed by the SARS-CoV-2. Within only a few months, the novel coronavirus has prompted most countries to go into lockdown, dwindling economies, and overwhelming health care systems with the more than 2 million people infected.

Meanwhile, scientists across the globe are racing to understand the SARS-CoV-2-in the hope of finding a treatment or cure. Now, the researchers’ surprise discovery has shed light on the potency of the novel coronavirus is killing powerful immune cells, which are supposed to kill the virus instead.

The researchers from the Fudan University in Shanghai, China, and the New York Blood Centre, has studied the virus’s action on T-lymphocyte cell lines. T lymphocytes or T cells work by identifying and eliminating foreign invaders in the body.

To arrive at their findings, published in the journal of Cellular & Molecular Immunology, the team captured a cell infected by the virus, penetrated the membrane, and injected toxic chemicals into the cell. After this, the chemicals killed both the virus and infected cells by tearing them into pieces.

Surprisingly, the team has found that when the coronavirus and the T cell came into contact with each other, the T cell became prey to the coronavirus, wherein a structure in the spike of the coronavirus triggered the attachment of a viral envelope and the cell membrane. After, the genes of the virus entered the T cell and overwhelmed it, took it hostage, and deactivated its ability to protect the body.

The team then tried to do the same with the SARS virus, and another coronavirus, but these pathogens were not able to infect T cells. The researchers suspect that the SARS virus, which caused an outbreak in 2002 to 2003, has a lack of a membrane fusion function. The virus can only infect cells that have a particular receptor protein called the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). T cells contain only a few ACE2 receptor proteins.

It is an important discovery, knowing the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 on T cells, since this may show why the disease is spreading so quickly, and infecting so many across the globe. It also explains why certain vulnerable populations are at a high risk of dying from the infection, including those who are more than 65, those who are immunocompromised, and those with underlying medical conditions like lung disease, heart disease, diabetes, and hypertension.

Further investigation shows that patients who died from COVID-19 had damage to their bodies similar to both SARS and HIV. Also, the team found that unlike HIV that replicates faulty T cells, the coronavirus does not replicate, showing that the T cells and the virus may end up dying together.

Source:

COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). (2020). https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda75
94740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Journal reference:

Xia, S., Liu, M., Wang, C., Xu, W., Lan, Q., Feng, S., Lu, L. et al. (2020). Inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 (previously 2019-nCoV) infection by a highly potent pan-coronavirus fusion inhibitor targeting its spike protein that harbors a high capacity to mediate membrane fusion. Cellular & Molecular Immunology. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32231345


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200413/Novel-coronavirus-attacks-a
nd-destroys-T-cells-just-like-HIV.aspx



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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 4:57 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


HOLY CRAP.

This should be headline news everywhere.

"Also, the team found that unlike HIV that replicates faulty T cells, the coronavirus does not replicate, showing that the T cells and the virus may end up dying together."

Well, HIV is a retrovirus, which means it creates DNA from its RNA code, and then inserts its DNA into the human DNA at random points. So when HIV-infected T-cells replicate, they replicate the HIV genes along with their own T-cell DNA. Since SARS-COV-2 ISN'T a retrovirus it shouldn't be able to do that.

Still, HOLY CRAP.


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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 4:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


But there was an link of good news buried in the bad ...
Quote:

Experimental drug APN01 prevents COVID-19 infection in the lab

Dr. Ananya Mandal, MDBy Dr. Ananya Mandal, MDApr 6 2020

With the world gripped with the COVID-19 pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), there is a frantic rush to find an effective drug that can be used to treat the disease.

Researchers from the University of British Columbia, in collaboration with others, have found an experimental drug that can inhibit the SARS-CoV-2 virus from infecting host cells. Their study titled, "Inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infections in engineered human tissues using clinical-grade soluble human ACE2," was published in the latest issue of the journal Cell.

... Dr. Josef Penninger, study leader, and his team are working on ways to inhibit SARS-CoV-2's capacity to infect human host cells. They write that in their previous study, they had explained the mechanism of infection caused by this virus and how angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor plays a vital role in the infection. The enzyme ACE2 has the capacity to protect the lungs from injury caused by the virus. This also provided an explanation regarding the severe lung damage, respiratory failure, kidney and blood vessels, and eventual death seen in some of the individuals.

... Dr. Art Slutsky, a scientist at the Keenan Research Centre for Biomedical Science of St. Michael's Hospital and professor at the University of Toronto, who was part of this study explained, "Our new study provides very much needed direct evidence that a drug -- called APN01 (human recombinant soluble angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 - hrsACE2) -- soon to be tested in clinical trials by the European biotech company Apeiron Biologics, is useful as an antiviral therapy for COVID-19."

APN01 is a recombinant human Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (rhACE2) under Phase-2 clinical development in ALI (Acute Lung Injury) and PAH (Pulmonal arterial hypertension). Recently, ACE2 has been shown to be the cellular entry receptor for the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Therefore APEIRON initiated now a clinical Phase II study in Austria, Germany, and Denmark for treatment of COVID-19 and is planning a clinical study in China in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. APEIRON Biologics AG.

For this study, the team used biomedically engineered organoids in the lab that mimicked human blood vessels and kidneys. These are essentially clumps of cells that act as the whole organ within the human body and are grown from human stem cells. On these organoids, the team then used hrsACE2 and found that it could prevent the entry of the coronavirus into the host cells. The decrease in the viral load affecting the host cells was by a factor of 1,000-5,000, they wrote.

... For this study, they used a Swedish patient who tested positive for COVID-19 in early February 2020. The SARS-CoV-2 virus was isolated from the nasopharyngeal samples of the patient. They grew the virus in the Vero E6 cells and looked at its genetic sequence using Next-Generation Sequencing (Genbank accession number MT093571).

... They wrote, "hrsACE-2 can inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection in a dose-dependent manner hrsACE2 has already undergone clinical phase 1 and phase 2 testing and is being considered for the treatment of COVID-19."

The study was funded by the Canadian federal government.
Sources:

Zhang, H., Penninger, J.M., Li, Y., Zhong, N., and Slutsky, A.S. (2020). Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a SARS-CoV-2 receptor: molecular mechanisms and potential therapeutic target. Intensive Care Med.
APEIRON’s product pipeline - https://www.apeiron-biologics.com/project-overview/#APN01
APEIRON Biologics Initiates Phase II Clinical Trial of APN01 for Treatment of COVID-19 - https://www.apeiron-biologics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20200402_
APEIRON_Phase-2-EU-trial_APN01_ENG.pdf

MORE AT https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200406/Experimental-drug-APN01-pre
vents-COVID-19-infection-in-the-lab.aspx



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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 5:26 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


FANTASTIC!

BUT ... your original link has seriously bad implications for anyone already infected. If you can't ramp up T-cell production AND educate them fast enough to get ahead of the virus, it's like your immune system has Alzheimer's and is being mowed down by machine guns at the same time.

AND ... your original link indicates T-cells have few ACE-2 receptors. So this potential treatment, while it may be able to reduce the overall viral load, doesn't seem protective of T-cells. It would be a race in terms of which happens fastest - viral load reduction or T-cell infection.

BTW - perhaps the T-cell infection happens because of those non-existent HIV-like spike protein inserts. In which case, one would also need to block attachment at the spike proteins for good results across a population.


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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 6:11 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

non-existent HIV-like spike protein inserts.
HAHAHAHA!

I've been thinking about that paper ever since it came out.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 6:25 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Newsom's conditions for reopening CA:

Quote:

No. 1. Public health authorities [must] posses the ability to test people and track contacts of new cases is condition
2 ... taking more steps to protect the vulnerable and the elderly.[SUCH AS?]
3 ... bolster state hospital systems and build up supplies of PPE.
4 ... "engage researchers and universities" to work toward treatments.
5 ... is re-drawing floor plans in businesses, parks etc. to accommodate distancing. And finally, the ability to switch the 'stay at home' order back on if the second wave begins to overwhelm.



What about WEARING MASKS???

You can't get to condition #1 until you have (a) enough test kits to test a lot of people AND (b) the number of cases has fallen low enough that tracing contacts is even possible. And you have to find some way to track the homeless and illegals. Condition #1 seems unachievable except in the long term, maybe.

Taking more steps to protect the vulnerable and elderly? Like ... how?

The rest is just blue-sky thinking in an ideal world. If Newsom follows his own plan, CA will NEVER re-open. In the meantime, will the Federal government continue to back an open-ended loan program?



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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 7:22 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
They've done testing on ferrets and ... something else, I forget which. Safety testing in people is the next step.

But how do you test for effectiveness, short of exposing people to the virus? There's no guarantee that another animal's immune response is a good model for ours.

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I volunteer. Give it to me.

Unfortunately, I'm about 99% sure I've already had it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 7:52 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
They've done testing on ferrets and ... something else, I forget which. Safety testing in people is the next step.

But how do you test for effectiveness, short of exposing people to the virus? There's no guarantee that another animal's immune response is a good model for ours.

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I can imagine a quick initial test -

vaccinate people
look for antibodies and levels of antibodies, since some people seem to make more than others
isolate those antibodies and mix them with a dose of virus, with the virus '#virus particles dose' calculated to be less than the '#antibodies dose' by a safe amount
all of the virus particles in the mix should then be coated with antibodies
dose uninfected ferrets with the mix
if the antibodies are neutralizing, the ferrets should stay healthy

ETA: It's simple in concept, but extremely technical and demanding in execution. Still, it could be a reasonable intermediate step.

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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 2:56 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


re antibodies

Prominent scientists have bad news on antibody tests

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-s
cientists/index.html


"In three words: Work in progress," said Dr. David Relman, a member of the National Academy of Sciences committee who was on the call.

There are several layers of issues with the antibody tests.

First, the US Food and Drug Administration relaxed its rules, and now companies can sell antibody tests without submitting validation data that shows they actually work.

Second, there are good tests in the midst of the bad ones, but they're not yet widely and easily available throughout the country.

Third, it's not entirely clear that having antibodies to Covid-19 means that you truly have immunity and won't get the disease again. "That's the $64 question," said Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of the NAS committee, who was also on the phone call with the White House. "Does antibody level equate to resistance to getting ill again?"




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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 1:38 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Following Sweden as a test case of "do nothing", and the 91-divoc website (If you find the website name hard to remember, it's covid-19 spelled backwards, "flip the script") shows Sweden leveling off faster than other nations, and without that 7th-day data bump.

Something hinky going on, so I decided to take a closer look at their data in tabular form at worldometer, which is somewhat clearer.

I hate to pull a JSF, but I'm going to do some quick math here ...

Looking at the four Nordic nations (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland) Sweden has the absolute lowest number of tests per million

SWE 7387
FIN 8813
DEN 13417
NOR 24020

Select to view spoiler:


USA 9504 for comparison


So, Sweden isn't testing much compared to the other Nordic nations

When they DO test, they find an astonishing percent of cases (confirmed/tests)

SWE 16.0%
DEN 8.5%
FIN 6.6%
NOR 5.1%

Select to view spoiler:


USA 19.7%


So it is highly likely that their criteria for testing is extremely limited, and that they're missing a number of cases

The number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 is also an astonishingly high percentage of confirmed cases. This would be the "case fatality rate" for Covid-19

SWE 10%
DEN 4.6%
NOR 2.2%
FIN 2.2%

Select to view spoiler:


USA 8.6%



SWEDEN's exceptionally high case fatality rate is a reflection of their extremely limited testing. It could also mean that they're not treating critical-care Covid-19 patients, and just letting them die in old folks homes or something.

IF their death certificates require a confirmed case of Covid-19, it's entirely possible that they're significantly under-reporting, since they seem to be under-testing. It depends on how diligently they investigate the cause of death and how narrowly they interpret the criteria for Covid-19. For example, NYC just added 2000+ deaths posthumously because the symptoms were consistent with Covid-19 before testing became available.

The only way to get an understanding of what's going on there is to find the raw death rate for people over 50 in 2020 compared to the raw death rate in 2019 and 2018. I'm going to try and find that data. If it's available I'll post it here.


I've provided USA figures for comparison. However, about half of USA values come from the New York City/New Jersey area, which has been utterly slammed with Covid-19, to the point where the hospitals really do look like something from Contagion





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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 2:29 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Italy to begin treating COVID patients with antibody-containing plasma from survivors

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/15/europe/italy-coronavirus-antibody-p
lasma-treatment-intl/index.html

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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 2:30 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


THANKS Signy for bringing so much vital information to this topic! (I PERSONALLY ESPECIALLY appreciate the T-cell COVID-19 connection! But I find all your posts informative and relevant. )

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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 8:38 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SO, apropos of the clot-busting protocol that you posted KIKI, here is an interesting video.

Chris Martenson, Peak Prosperity. DR Chris Martenson has a degree in pathology, btw...

As I was listening to this, and also pondering the article that you posted KIKI, the thought cam to me that it sounds like DIC. Which is what Chris winds his way towards.

ALSO, BTW, I agree with his comments on billion for bank bailouts: AARRGGHHH!!







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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 8:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Not wearing a mask, and summer is coming so I won't be staying home either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 10:32 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Not wearing a mask, and summer is coming so I won't be staying home either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

But you'll suck off the government teat while complaining about intrusive government, all while refusing to do the simplest, cheapest, most self empowering thing you can do.

You're a strange duck, SIX

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Pity would be no more,
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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 10:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Not wearing a mask, and summer is coming so I won't be staying home either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

But you'll suck off the government teat while complaining about intrusive government, all while refusing to do the simplest, cheapest, most self empowering thing you can do.

You're a strange duck, SIX

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
#WEARAMASK




I'm going to take the money that everybody else is getting, sure. They're even giving it to people who don't live here legally in your state.

That money comes at a cost that we'll all be paying in the future. Whatever I don't spend on my house and bills is going into the bank because our money will be worth less when this is all over.

What are you doing with your money? Are you giving it back to the government then? You must be, because you're pretending hard like you're not going to take it.



I've already got it and I'm over it. I'm not going to wear a mask unless I'm doing drywall... Assuming that they're not still sold out when I need it.



Oh... and BTW, Tom Hanks and his wife are fully recovered and fine, despite the fact the media didn't bother reporting on it. They sure as hell made a huge stink about it when they got it though, with one reporter for fake news saying "that was what broke America".

Meh... whatever.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 11:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIX: Not wearing a mask, and summer is coming so I won't be staying home either.

SIGNY: But you'll suck off the government teat while complaining about intrusive government, all while refusing to do the simplest, cheapest, most self empowering thing you can do.
You're a strange duck, SIX


SIX: I'm going to take the money that everybody else is getting, sure. They're even giving it to people who don't live here legally in your state.
That money comes at a cost that we'll all be paying in the future. Whatever I don't spend on my house and bills is going into the bank because our money will be worth less when this is all over.
What are you doing with your money? Are you giving it back to the government then? You must be, because you're pretending hard like you're not going to take it.

If I get one I'll take it, but I'm not holding my breath.

Quote:

SIX: I've already got it and I'm over it.
Uh huh. That's a a couple of big ASSumptions there, SIX. The very first ginormous assumptions is that you got it. What do you base this on? A case of the sniffles? A drippy nose? A productive cough?

I've had a drippy nose and on-and-off sore throat for MONTHS, with occasional green snot and cough. And I can guarantee you that it's not Covid-19. NONE of those symptoms are typical of Covid-19 ... not yours. Not mine. So we can shitcan your first ASSumption right away.

But let's ASSume that you had it. Your next ASSumption is that you're over it. But, yanno, there are all kinds of people out there who really did have it ... tested positive and everything. Then tested negative twice, got out of quarantine and then re-tested positive several weeks later. Not a good sign! Maybe they were never really well. Maybe they were just carrying the virus at low (undetectable) levels and then something ... job stress, perhaps ... reactivated it. The line between "sick" and "over it" seems kinda hazy.

Your third ASSumption is that if you've had it, you won't get it again. That has yet to be determined. There is plenty of indication that people's immune systems may not become "competent" after exposure to the virus. You've said it yourself: It's like the cold. You can get it over and over and ...

Quote:

SIX: I'm not going to wear a mask unless I'm doing drywall... Assuming that they're not still sold out when I need it.
Let me pose a few "what ifs" to you?

What if we could open the economy right now?
What if we could do it without waiting for a treatment or a vaccine to be developed?
what if we could do it without waiting for antibody tests to be developed?
what if we could do it without the "immunity cards" or being required to get a vaccine, or having a national health database instituted? Or people being microchipped or tatooed, like some people are talking about?
What if all it took was wearing a mask whenever you were out in public?

What would keep you from wearing a mask?

How would you feel if you gave it to your parents, or your disabled brother, or your niece, or someone else that you cared about, and they got sick?

It's one thing to not care if you get sick, it's another thing not to care if you make someone else sick.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 11:05 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
You're a strange duck, SIX

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
#WEARAMASK

Naw. Among other things he's a common variety hypocrite. People like him are a dime a dozen. He actually reminds me of someone I used to work with. He called himself The Wizard but everyone else called him The Gizzard, because nobody had any respect for him. And they would mock him to his face.

In any case, there are far more interesting things to talk about than Kevin.

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