REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Trump's Budget

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Saturday, October 12, 2019 15:45
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 8079
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018 10:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


And also with today's new data:

Here I'll add a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.

That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with June.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 (19963.3)-2.0
FY2018Q3, Cal YRQ1(20334.2) gain 370.9

Now placing equivalent figures in parentheses, following 27 July 2018 revisions.

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2(19963.3)Q3(20324.8) (advanced est)

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 8888ytd 20095.8 88888.8 20049.4 +
Quote:

Quote:


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)



361.5 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4
Quote:


301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


209.2 FY2018 Q2 (new data)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
183.4 FY2017 Q2 (new data)
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


With revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Quote:


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:




1,0434.4 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

814.4 FY2018Q1-3 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
Quote:


902.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est3)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 29 August.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.


Well, today all the numbers changed, so they won't mesh with the previous data. Seems they recalculated current dollars.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

One thing resonates at this point: having the data posted like so far in this thread can be important, because now all of that source data is erased, as far as the Internet is concerned, it never existed.


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Tuesday, September 11, 2018 1:18 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



CBO released the Monthly Update today.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54442

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


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Thursday, September 13, 2018 11:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I just read that Congress had passed an extra $300 Billion in spending over the next 2 years, as of this past June. It was reportedly front loaded.

The Deficit has been running about $100 Billion more than the prior year, so with a known boost of about $150 Billion per year, Trump is actually reversing directional trend and reducing the Deficit track.

The Deficit has been running about $200 Billion over that of 2 years ago, and the GDP has been growing more than $500 Billion the past 2 years, so this could be finally turn this ship around from the whirlpool Bobo headed us for.

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Monday, September 24, 2018 11:06 AM

THG


T



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Monday, September 24, 2018 11:38 AM

REAVERFAN


TRUMP SPARKS OUTRAGE WITH PLAN TO DIVERT NEARLY $200 MILLION FROM HEALTH PROGRAMS TO FUND CHILD DETENTION
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-sparks-outrage-plan-divert-nearly-200m-
health-programs-fund-child-1135143


We don't want to fund healthcare, because putting innocent children in cages and torturing them is a higher priority to this president.

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Thursday, September 27, 2018 10:10 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



And also with today's new data:

Here I'll add a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.

That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with June.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 (19963.3)-2.0
FY2018Q3, Cal YRQ1(20334.2) gain 370.9

Now placing equivalent figures in parentheses, following 27 July 2018 revisions.

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2(19963.3)Q3(20324.8) (advanced est)

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 8888ytd 20095.8 88888.8 20049.4 +
Quote:

Quote:


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)



361.5 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4
Quote:


301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


209.2 FY2018 Q2 (new data)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
183.4 FY2017 Q2 (new data)
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


With revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Quote:


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:




1,0434.4 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

814.4 FY2018Q1-3 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
Quote:


902.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est3)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 29 August.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.


Well, today all the numbers changed, so they won't mesh with the previous data. Seems they recalculated current dollars.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

One thing resonates at this point: having the data posted like so far in this thread can be important, because now all of that source data is erased, as far as the Internet is concerned, it never existed.

With today's report, nothing changed. The prior estimate held true.

Next report Oct 26.

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Tuesday, October 9, 2018 10:48 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



CBO released the Monthly Update last Friday, 5 October, but I was too busy to notice.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54442

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2018 12:03 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I really should have posted this at the top of the page, for reference. This includes Budget Deficits as well as GDP forecasting.

This was posted 24 May, but now I'll add the new GDP data:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.



The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5520 7046 1526 29803 || 5264 6351 1087 29803
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5299 6615 1316 28677 || 5063 6029 $965 28677
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 5002 6322 1320 27608 || 4886 5778 $893 27608
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4663 6015 1352 26595 || 4659 5553 $895 26595
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4444 5688 1244 25583 || 4446 5305 $859 25583
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4228 5500 1273 24621 || 4232 5202 $971 24621
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5288 1276 23716 || 4016 5055 1039 23716
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3827 4949 1123 22872 || 3830 4775 $945 22872
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3678 4685 1008 22034 || 3682 4548 $866 22034
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3490 4470 $981 21136 || 3493 4448 $955 21136
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3338 4142 $804 20103 || 3339 4131 $792 20103
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 || 3316 3982 $665 19178
Quote:


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,792 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,279 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,836 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,443 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,090 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,795 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,559 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,384 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,257 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B
Quote:


This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.246 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,264 $6,025B $6,163B $132B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,696 $5,710B $5,939B $225B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,199 $5,430B $5,733B $298B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,750 $5,145B $5,514B $365B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,342 $4,875B $5,337B $457B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,992 $4,555B $5,151B $593B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,701 $4,265B $4,934B $666B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,471 $3,980B $4,749B $765B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,289 $3,730B $4,592B $861B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,542B $4,406B $862B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177
Quote:


This method of GDP projection results in a total of $2.032 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2018 12:22 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


This is from 1 July, and I should post it at top of the page for reference, because it includes Actual Federal Deficit plus Debt.

The U.S. DEBT Clock shows current Federal Debt as $21.182 Trillion.
And $778.8 Billion Federal Budget Deficit.

The end of June marks completion of 3 Quarters of the Fiscal Year.

In the coming month will be the reports of GDP at this point in time.
Certain to show more than $20 Trillion for the first time ever.

U.S. DEBT Clock .com shows it as $20.138T.
That seems a very low projection.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
In another thread, some moron is yakking about how Debt Growth under Obamanomics is so much bestest and gooder than anybody else. So I'll try to post some facts here, changing data columns from a prior post.

I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.



Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, Debt Growth.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt Debt Growth
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 3.4%
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 7.8%
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 1.8%
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 6.4%
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 4.2%
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 8.7%
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 9.1%
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 13.9%
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 18.9%
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 11.6%
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 5.6%
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 2.5%
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6
Quote:


It looks fairly clear that the Spending Spree was kicked off with the Rock-The-Vote Democrap FY2008 Budget. And then it was a runaway with Obama.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


Extrapolation would suggest Deficit around $1 Trillion for the Fiscal Year.
The indication is $977 Billion in Debt Growth in this FY.
Which would suggest Debt Growth around $1.22 Trillion for this FY.



That site also says Federal Revenue is $3.375 Trillion and spending is $4.154 Trillion, so I'm not sure where they're getting those numbers.
The FY figures from CBO are estimates, but I'll try to update it for FY2018.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2018 12:33 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,328 B $ 4,110 B $ 782 B || $~ 782 B $~ 20,988 $~20,050 B $~938 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2018 8:31 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Jeez. I should include a column of projected Federal Debt on one of those.

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Friday, October 26, 2018 11:29 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



And also with today's new data:

Here I'll add a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.

That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with June.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 (19963.3)-2.0
FY2018Q3, Cal YRQ1(20334.2) gain 370.9

Now placing equivalent figures in parentheses, following 27 July 2018 revisions.

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2(19963.3)Q3(20324.8) (advanced est)

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20659.0 20210.9 .8 888.8 20049.4 +162
Quote:


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)



361.5 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

247.1 FY2018 Q4 (est)
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4
Quote:


301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


209.2 FY2018 Q2 (new data)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
183.4 FY2017 Q2 (new data)
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


With revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Quote:


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:




1,043.4 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

814.4 FY2018Q1-3 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
Quote:


902.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est3)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 29 August.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.


Well, today all the numbers changed, so they won't mesh with the previous data. Seems they recalculated current dollars.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

One thing resonates at this point: having the data posted like so far in this thread can be important, because now all of that source data is erased, as far as the Internet is concerned, it never existed.
With today's report, GDP growth is confirmed.

Next report Nov 28.

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Friday, October 26, 2018 12:01 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updated with today's FY GDP figure:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:



FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,328 B $ 4,110 B $ 782 B || $~ 782 B $~ 20,988 $20,210.9B $~777 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Quote:

Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.

My prior table had underestimated this year's GDP. So now we see that Trump actually deleted a quarter of Obama's Debt Excess (amount Federal Debt is higher than GDP).

Hmmmm. Lowering Taxes increases Revenues and Lowers Debt....I've heard that somewhere before.


I have seen political ads from Dems lying like crazy about Taxes and Debt (thanks to CBO issuing those lies in their Fake April report), and now will this excellent Fiscal Budget news be used in any new ads?



Edit: well, that figure probably won't hold up. CBO is using some weird calculation for their GDP figure, likely subtracting $100B from the BEA number. Which would make the Excess around $877B.

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Thursday, November 8, 2018 2:48 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's CBO data:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:



FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,329 B $ 4,108 B $ 779 B || $~ 779 B $~ 20,985 $20,210.9B $~774 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Quote:

Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.

My prior table had underestimated this year's GDP. So now we see that Trump actually deleted a quarter of Obama's Debt Excess (amount Federal Debt is higher than GDP).

Hmmmm. Lowering Taxes increases Revenues and Lowers Debt....I've heard that somewhere before.


I have seen political ads from Dems lying like crazy about Taxes and Debt (thanks to CBO issuing those lies in their Fake April report), and now will this excellent Fiscal Budget news be used in any new ads?



Edit: well, that figure probably won't hold up. CBO is using some weird calculation for their GDP figure, likely subtracting $100B from the BEA number. Which would make the Excess around $877B.

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Thursday, November 8, 2018 2:56 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



CBO released the Monthly Update today, including FY18 Rev 3329 Out 4108 Def 779.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54647

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19
Out19
SDEst --98
Act19

Rev19
Out19
SDEst --98
Act19
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --985 --985
%Pjt8 1212
%Pjt7 1423
%Pjt6 -422


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.


Interesting: for the new report on 7 Nov 2018, CBO ranted on and on about Tax Cuts, but refused to provide the basic figures of how many Dollars of Revenue and how many of Outlays for October.
I guess we need to wait until Thursday afternoon for the Monthly Treasury Statement.


Edit: Whoops. Not 8th day of the month. Eighth business day of the month. So, next Monday afternoon, the 12th.

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Thursday, November 8, 2018 8:38 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Word on the street is they're talking about layoffs where I work. It would explain the poisonous attitude around my work that just came out of the blue.

I'm not really worried about it because the store would have to close for them to get rid of me. Besides, at what I make it wouldn't take much to find a comparable job somewhere else. I do hope they're just rumors though. I quite like the job now that I've set myself up like I have. Really don't want to spend another year somewhere else doing it all again from scratch.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, November 8, 2018 12:38 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Word on the street is they're talking about layoffs where I work. It would explain the poisonous attitude around my work that just came out of the blue.

I'm not really worried about it because the store would have to close for them to get rid of me. Besides, at what I make it wouldn't take much to find a comparable job somewhere else. I do hope they're just rumors though. I quite like the job now that I've set myself up like I have. Really don't want to spend another year somewhere else doing it all again from scratch.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, they gotta prep for that Market drop that you just voted for.

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Wednesday, November 14, 2018 12:36 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


For this month, I'll update with data from Monthly Treasury Statement, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to do so.


CBO released the Monthly Update today, including FY18 Rev 3329 Out 4108 Def 779.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54647

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253
Out19 353
SDEst --98
Act19 -100

Rev19 253
Out19 353
SDEst --98
Act19 -100
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --985 --985
%Pjt8 1212
%Pjt7 1423
%Pjt6 -422


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.


Interesting: for the new report on 7 Nov 2018, CBO ranted on and on about Tax Cuts, but refused to provide the basic figures of how many Dollars of Revenue and how many of Outlays for October.
I guess we need to wait until Thursday afternoon for the Monthly Treasury Statement.


Edit: Whoops. Not 8th day of the month. Eighth business day of the month. So, next Monday afternoon, the 12th.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.

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Wednesday, November 14, 2018 1:10 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Word on the street is they're talking about layoffs where I work. It would explain the poisonous attitude around my work that just came out of the blue.

I'm not really worried about it because the store would have to close for them to get rid of me. Besides, at what I make it wouldn't take much to find a comparable job somewhere else. I do hope they're just rumors though. I quite like the job now that I've set myself up like I have. Really don't want to spend another year somewhere else doing it all again from scratch.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, they gotta prep for that Market drop that you just voted for.



I voted for Rethugs and Libertarians.


Are you still crying that the voting didn't go the way you wanted it to?


Boo Hoo.

Grow up.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, November 28, 2018 4:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Today's report revised the FY2018Q4 GDP gain from 247.1 to 248.4, for a FY (4 Quarter) gain of $20,212 Billion.

And also with today's new data:

Here I'll add a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20660.3 20211.3 .8 888.8 20049.4 +162
Quote:


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

248.4 FY2018 Q4 (est)
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,072.2 FY2018Q1-4 (est)
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
(new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

828.5 FY2018Q2-4 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
Quote:


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 7 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first and second ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.


Next report Dec 21.

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Monday, December 24, 2018 2:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I missed the 10 December report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.


CBO released the Monthly Update then.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54861

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 205
Out19 353 408
SDEst --98 --203
Act19 -100

Rev19 253 458
Out19 353 761
SDEst --98 --303
Act19 -100
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --985 --985
%Pjt8 1212 1170 (-996)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 (-938)
%Pjt6 -422 -881


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.

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Monday, December 24, 2018 2:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Friday's report revised the FY2018Q4 GDP gain from 248.4 to 246.3, for a FY (4 Quarter) gain of $20,210 Billion.

And also with today's new data:

Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 .8 888.8 20049.4 +161
Quote:


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4 (est)
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4 (est)
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
(new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

826.1 FY2018Q2-4 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 7 Quarters to date. Plus the next one, and certainly the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 3 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 3 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 4th & 5th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 14th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first and second ever to top $1 Trillion.
Next report Jan 30. That will include the 1st Estimate for the period now, since 1 October - so the possible indication how much the Anti-Economy Election has slowed down the target.

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Monday, December 24, 2018 4:28 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I have intended to list a column of Projected Federal Debt, and here I will try to do that.
I'll start with figures from CBO Outlook from April 2018, pg 87.


I really should have posted this at the top of the page, for reference. This includes Budget Deficits as well as GDP forecasting.

This was posted 24 May, but now I'll add the new GDP data:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.



The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP CBDb || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5520 7046 1526 29803 33851 || 5264 6351 1087 29803
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5299 6615 1316 28677 32542 || 5063 6029 $965 28677
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 5002 6322 1320 27608 31367 || 4886 5778 $893 27608
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4663 6015 1352 26595 30042 || 4659 5553 $895 26595
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4444 5688 1244 25583 28730 || 4446 5305 $859 25583
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4228 5500 1273 24621 27468 || 4232 5202 $971 24621
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5288 1276 23716 26179 || 4016 5055 1039 23716
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3827 4949 1123 22872 24877 || 3830 4775 $945 22872
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3678 4685 1008 22034 23675 || 3682 4548 $866 22034
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3490 4470 $981 21136 22546 || 3493 4448 $955 21136
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3338 4142 $804 20103 21375 || 3339 4131 $792 20103
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 20206 || 3316 3982 $665 19178
Quote:


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,792 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,279 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,836 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,443 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,090 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,795 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,559 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,384 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,257 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B
Quote:


This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.246 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,264 $6,025B $6,163B $132B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,696 $5,710B $5,939B $225B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,199 $5,430B $5,733B $298B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,750 $5,145B $5,514B $365B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,342 $4,875B $5,337B $457B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,992 $4,555B $5,151B $593B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,701 $4,265B $4,934B $666B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,471 $3,980B $4,749B $765B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,289 $3,730B $4,592B $861B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,542B $4,406B $862B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177
Quote:


This method of GDP projection results in a total of $2.032 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.

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Monday, December 24, 2018 5:27 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


For transparency I will do the next step here.
I have intended to list a column of Projected Federal Debt, and here I will try to do that.
To fit the columns in the first table of data, I will delete the middle section CBO GDP, which was not different from the right section. I will also delete Revenue and Outlays from the middle section.
CBO did not update the Debt Projections the next month when they corrected their massive miscalculations of April. So I will compute the new Debt Projections from the revised Deficit figures. This will be as of May 2018.
I have also included the reduced interest on the Debt.

The final column is the amount of the CBO Debt Projection greater than the CBO GDP Projection. The Trump Budget GDP Projections are not only underestimated compared to CBO (getting Debt below GDP within 8 years), but both are underestimating the actual GDP performance.

The last 2 Tables are not updated for Dec 2018.

I really should have posted this at the top of the page, for reference. This includes Budget Deficits as well as GDP forecasting.

This was posted 24 May, but now I'll add the new GDP data:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.



The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBDf CBDbt || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP DbtPrj
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 1526 33851 || 5264 6351 1087 29803 30695 0892
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 1316 32542 || 5063 6029 $965 28677 29915 1238
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 1320 31367 || 4886 5778 $893 27608 29168 1560
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 1352 30042 || 4659 5553 $895 26595 28340 1745
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 1244 28730 || 4446 5305 $859 25583 27435 1852
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 1273 27468 || 4232 5202 $971 24621 26498 1877
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 1276 26179 || 4016 5055 1039 23716 25541 1825
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 1123 24877 || 3830 4775 $945 22872 24486 1614
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 1008 23675 || 3682 4548 $866 22034 23491 1457
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || $981 22546 || 3493 4448 $955 21136 22508 1372
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || $804 21375 || 3339 4131 $792 20103 21363 1260
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || $665 20206 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 20206 1028
Quote:


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,792 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,279 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,836 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,443 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,090 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,795 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,559 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,384 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,257 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B
Quote:


This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.246 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,264 $6,025B $6,163B $132B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,696 $5,710B $5,939B $225B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,199 $5,430B $5,733B $298B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,750 $5,145B $5,514B $365B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,342 $4,875B $5,337B $457B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,992 $4,555B $5,151B $593B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,701 $4,265B $4,934B $666B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,471 $3,980B $4,749B $765B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,289 $3,730B $4,592B $861B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,542B $4,406B $862B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177
Quote:


This method of GDP projection results in a total of $2.032 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.


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Tuesday, January 8, 2019 2:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The new Monthly Update was released a few minutes ago. The news is so positive that the MSM is probably going to bury it.
Here I've updated the info.


CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.


CBO released the Monthly Update then.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54905

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312
Out19 353 $408 $324
SDEst --98 --203 --012
Act19 -100 -205

Rev19 253 $458 $771
Out19 353 $761 1088
SDEst --98 --303 --317
Act19 -100 -305
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --985 --985 --985 --985
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 (-945)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 (-864)
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.

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Tuesday, January 29, 2019 3:37 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The GDP Update from BEA was scheduled to be released yesterday, but has been delayed due to Pelosi's Government Shutdown.

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Wednesday, February 6, 2019 5:02 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The GDP Update from BEA was scheduled to be released yesterday, but has been delayed due to Pelosi's Government Shutdown.

Today the site posted that it will just be combined with the 2nd one, release date 28 Feb.


Also, the Monthly Treasury Statement for December is delayed until 13 February.

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Friday, February 8, 2019 3:36 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



In May 2018 CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of the PRIOR MONTH, or 7 weeks before.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The new CBO report is from January 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.

The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018, and then Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from January 2019:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || CBR CBOt CBODb CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5264 6351 1087 33851 29803 || 5446 6881 32581 29862
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5063 6029 $965 32542 28677 || 5254 6446 31353 28738
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4886 5778 $893 31367 27608 || 4956 6160 30331 27667
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4659 5553 $895 30042 26595 || 4647 5859 29175 26656
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4446 5305 $859 28730 25583 || 4448 5539 28020 25642
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4232 5202 $971 27468 24621 || 4208 5347 26922 24672
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4016 5055 1039 26179 23716 || 4012 5140 25759 23778
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3830 4775 $945 24877 22872 || 3841 4814 24598 22939
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3682 4548 $866 23675 22034 || 3686 4589 23522 22120
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3493 4448 $955 22546 21136 || 3515 4412 22465 21252
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3339 4131 $792 21375 20103 || 3329 4108 21461 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 20206 19178

2029: 5672 7042 33681 31006


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.

The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.


The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from January 2019.



Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.



Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.

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Saturday, February 9, 2019 11:15 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


And the CBO Update for February is also cancelled due to the Pelosi Shutdown.

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Tuesday, February 12, 2019 5:04 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Bump for Sigs, who thinks that 8 years of Clinton increasing the Gross Federal Debt EVERY SINGLE YEAR should be defined as "Reducing Federal Debt." Bloated it by more than a Trillion Dollars.



Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Updated with today's FY GDP figure:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:



FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,328 B $ 4,110 B $ 782 B || $~ 782 B $~ 20,988 $20,210.9B $~777 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Quote:

Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.

My prior table had underestimated this year's GDP. So now we see that Trump actually deleted a quarter of Obama's Debt Excess (amount Federal Debt is higher than GDP).

Hmmmm. Lowering Taxes increases Revenues and Lowers Debt....I've heard that somewhere before.


I have seen political ads from Dems lying like crazy about Taxes and Debt (thanks to CBO issuing those lies in their Fake April report), and now will this excellent Fiscal Budget news be used in any new ads?



Edit: well, that figure probably won't hold up. CBO is using some weird calculation for their GDP figure, likely subtracting $100B from the BEA number. Which would make the Excess around $877B.

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Tuesday, February 12, 2019 11:27 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Bump for Sigs, who thinks that 8 years of Clinton increasing the Gross Federal Debt EVERY SINGLE YEAR should be defined as "Reducing Federal Debt."

You are wrong. The Federal Debt decreased during Clinton’s best year (2000) at the rate of minus 2%.

The Compounded Annual Rate of Change of Federal Debt was increasing by 17.88% per year during Reagan’s worst year (1984). The years before and after his worst were 17.85% and 17.01%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mX9I


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 2:15 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Bump for Sigs, who thinks that 8 years of Clinton increasing the Gross Federal Debt EVERY SINGLE YEAR should be defined as "Reducing Federal Debt."

You are wrong. The Federal Debt decreased during Clinton’s best year (2000) at the rate of minus 2%.

The Compounded Annual Rate of Change of Federal Debt was increasing by 17.88% per year during Reagan’s worst year (1984). The years before and after his worst were 17.85% and 17.01%.

Your campaign to remind us that you are numerical illiterate is strong, particularly after I just posted the figures.

From 1995 to 1996 the Gross Federal Debt went from $7.583 Trillion to $7.978 Trillion. That is an increase, except to Libtards.
For 1997 the Debt increased to $8.483 Trillion.
For 1998 the Debt increased to $8.954 Trillion.
For 1999 the Debt increased to $9.510 Trillion.
For 2000 the Debt increased to $10.148 Trillion. Clinton made Federal Debt History in 2000 by pushing it over the $10 Trillion mark for the first time ever.
Clinton left Office in 2001.
For 2001 the Debt increased to $10.564 Trillion.

How stupid is second? This is beyond merely gullible, this is Libtardism in the extreme.

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 8:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Your campaign to remind us that you are numerical illiterate is strong, particularly after I just posted the figures.

From 1995 to 1996 the Gross Federal Debt went from $7.583 Trillion to $7.978 Trillion. That is an increase, except to Libtards.
For 1997 the Debt increased to $8.483 Trillion.
For 1998 the Debt increased to $8.954 Trillion.
For 1999 the Debt increased to $9.510 Trillion.
For 2000 the Debt increased to $10.148 Trillion. Clinton made Federal Debt History in 2000 by pushing it over the $10 Trillion mark for the first time ever.
Clinton left Office in 2001.
For 2001 the Debt increased to $10.564 Trillion.

How stupid is second? This is beyond merely gullible, this is Libtardism in the extreme.

Your numbers are wrong.

The Federal Reserve will let you download an Excel file of the real numbers for the Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mXRu

1995-01-01 4.988665 trillion
1996-01-01 5.323172
1997-01-01 5.502388
1998-01-01 5.614217
1999-01-01 5.776091
2000-01-01 5.662216
2001-01-01 5.943439

The percent change per year is here
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mX9I

Change from Year Ago, Millions of Dollars, is here
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mXRH

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 8:28 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


I don't even have to look to know that Second is right about this... or at least his numbers are closer.

When I started paying attention to the Debt Clock it was well over $6 Trillion and that was early in GWB's administration. The wheels didn't really come off until after 9/11 and the obscene increases in military spending that have never once tapered off in any meaningful fashion since.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 8:45 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I don't even have to look to know that Second is right about this... or at least his numbers are closer.

When I started paying attention to the Debt Clock it was well over $6 Trillion and that was early in GWB's administration. The wheels didn't really come off until after 9/11 and the obscene increases in military spending that have never once tapered off in any meaningful fashion since.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

At the time it looked like a bribe for votes, but Bush was giving away money in 2001, before 9/11: The rebate was up to a maximum of $300 for single filers with no dependents, $500 for single parents, and $600 for married couples. Anybody who paid less than their maximum rebate amount in net taxes received that amount, meaning some people who did not pay any taxes did not receive rebates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconcili
ation_Act_of_2001#Tax_rebate


I remember an actual $600 check from the Treasury coming in the mail. I was thinking that this will end badly. This is no way to run a country, just giving away money when it should have been used to reduce the National Debt.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 8:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Yeah. I remember I got my full $300.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 8:59 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yeah. I remember I got my full $300.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

But do you remember this completely false justification the Republicans gave? After Bush spouted nonsense, the Democrats politely called Bush a crazy liar and, it just so happens, time has proven the Democrats were correct:

President Bush said Saturday that the most important number in the budget he sends to Congress next week is the $5.6 trillion surplus it projects over the next 10 years.

That huge projected surplus provides the underpinning of all the administration's tax-cut and spending plans, Mr. Bush said in his recorded weekly radio address.

"A surplus in tax revenue, after all, means that taxpayers have been overcharged," the president said. "And usually when you've been overcharged, you expect to get something back." The surplus figure "counts more than any other" in the budget, he said.

Democrats cautioned that surpluses projected over so long a period can turn into elusive fool's gold. And they continued to insist that as it stands the Bush tax-cut plan unfairly favors the wealthy over those of more modest means. (Actual Democrats were much ruder because they remembered Bush as governor of Texas. And they remembered Reagan making promises to not overspend, and then doing the exact opposite about the National Debt.)

www.cbsnews.com/news/bush-surplus-justifies-tax-cut/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 12:17 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I don't even have to look to know that Second is right about this... or at least his numbers are closer.

When I started paying attention to the Debt Clock it was well over $6 Trillion and that was early in GWB's administration. The wheels didn't really come off until after 9/11 and the obscene increases in military spending that have never once tapered off in any meaningful fashion since.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

So you believe the Federal Debt in your Fairy Tale is only little over half of the actual Gross Federal Debt?
CBO just released their updated Gross Federal Debt figures at the end of last month. Maybe you think they are lying, and you prefer the Fairy Libtard Tales?

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 1:15 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So you believe the Federal Debt in your Fairy Tale is only little over half of the actual Gross Federal Debt?
CBO just released their updated Gross Federal Debt figures at the end of last month. Maybe you think they are lying, and you prefer the Fairy Libtard Tales?

Do you realize that the numbers are available?
Do you realize you have been caught lying, again and again?
Do you realize that Clinton's revenues were higher than outlays?
www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#2


The xls file for January 2019
www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-01/51134-2019-01-historicalbudgetdata.xl
sx


Revenues Outlays On-Budget
1989 991.1 1,143.7 -205.4
1990 1,032.0 1,253.0 -277.6
1991 1,055.0 1,324.2 -321.4
1992 1.091.2 1,381.5 -340.4
1993 1,154.3 1,409.4 -300.4
1994 1,258.6 1,461.8 -258.8
1995 1.351.8 1.515.7 -226.4
1996 1,453.1 1,560.5 -174.0
1997 1,579.2 1,601.1 -103.2
1998 1,721.7 1,652.5 -29.9
1999 1,827.5 1,701.8 1.9
2000 2,025.2 1,789.0 86.4
2001 1,991.1 1.862.8 -32.4
2002 1,853.1 2,010.9 -317.4
2003 1,782.3 2,159.9 -538.4
2004 1.880.1 2,292.8 -568.0
2005 2,153.6 2,472.0 -493.6
2006 2,406.9 2,655.1 -434.5
2007 2.568.0 2.728.7 -342.2
2008 2,524.0 2,982.5 -641.8
2009 2,105.0 3,517.7 -1,549.7
2010 2,162.7 3,457.1 -1,371.4
2011 2,303.5 3,603.1 -1,366.8
2012 2,450.0 3,536.9 -1,148.9
2013 2,775.1 3,454.6 -719.0
2014 3,021.5 3,506.1 -514.1
2015 3,249.9 3,688.4 -465.8
2016 3,268.0 3,852.6 -620.2
2017 3,316.2 3,981.6 -714.8
2018 3,328.7 4,107.8 -785.2

Figure 1-1 shows surpluses during the Clinton years
www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2019-01/54918-Outlook-Summary.pdf
www.cbo.gov/publication/54918

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 14, 2019 3:09 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I don't even have to look to know that Second is right about this... or at least his numbers are closer.

When I started paying attention to the Debt Clock it was well over $6 Trillion and that was early in GWB's administration. The wheels didn't really come off until after 9/11 and the obscene increases in military spending that have never once tapered off in any meaningful fashion since.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

So you believe the Federal Debt in your Fairy Tale is only little over half of the actual Gross Federal Debt?
CBO just released their updated Gross Federal Debt figures at the end of last month. Maybe you think they are lying, and you prefer the Fairy Libtard Tales?

Have you heard that just yesterday, the Federal Debt passed the $22 Trillion mark, for the first time ever? You can even find some Libtard MSM reports on it. Do you think they are lying? Do you think the entire world is lying, and the Debt is really your tiny Fake News number?
Or do you only believe the tiny Fake News number when your favorite Liberal is in Office, and then only believe the real figure (normally almost double) when your despised Conservative is in Office?


Debt Surpasses $22 Trillion:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/national-debt-effect-americans-22340
1667.html


Do you think the website US Debt Clock is lying to you, reporting the $22 Trillion figure instead of your Fake News $16 Trillion Figure?
http://usdebtclock.org/

Or are you just gullible enough to change what you believe from day to day depending upon the prevailing wind? I thought you said you were good with numbers, not as illiterate as second.

Have you ever heard of the Federal Debt Limit or Debt Ceiling in the past few years? Have you heard we keep bumping up against it, and we need to keep increasing the amount?
In 2018 the Debt Limit was between $21 Trillion and @22 Trillion.
In 2019 the Debt Limit is between $22 Trillion and $23 Trillion.
If the Federal Debt was really your fantasy Fake News number of $15T or $16T, then why did the Debt Limit need to be raised?

You may find the numbers yourself in Table 1-3 on Page 16 of the CBO Report from the end of last month. They have historical archives there, where you can find all of the number which I have already posted (and which you claimed were "wrong" or somesuch manure}.

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Thursday, February 14, 2019 8:11 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


The Federal Reserve’s numbers for Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mXRu

2001-01-01 $5.943439 trillion
2002-01-01 6.405707
2003-01-01 6.997964
2004-01-01 7.596143
2005-01-01 8.170413
2006-01-01 8.680224
2007-01-01 9.229172
2008-01-01 10.699805
2009-01-01 12.311349
2010-01-01 14.025215
2011-01-01 15.222940
2012-01-01 16.432730
2013-01-01 17.156119
2014-01-01 18.141444
2015-01-01 18.922179
2016-01-01 19.976827
2017-01-01 20.492747

2017 Financial Report of the United States Government was signed by Steven T. Mnuchin on February 15, 2018
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/
02142018-FR(Final).pdf


If you read the financial report, you will see Trump knows nothing about how to run a government without borrowing $trillions. The 2018 Financial Report ought to be available very soon at
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/curren
t-report.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, February 14, 2019 8:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Or are you just gullible enough to change what you believe from day to day depending upon the prevailing wind? I thought you said you were good with numbers, not as illiterate as second.



You're making up numbers. I can't help you there.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, February 27, 2019 1:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Trump's Tax Reform finally allowed Voters for High Taxes to pay their Fair Share, by reducing their deductible amounts of the High Taxes that they vote to have.
So now MSM is reporting that this is "harmful" to these High Tax Lovers.

A thought occurs to me. California has been flirting with the idea of seceding, or splitting into 2 States. I wonder if New York has discussed divorcing itself from NYC.

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Thursday, February 28, 2019 12:02 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



And with today's new data:
The 3rd consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20891.4


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.



Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4
1,059.6 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1 (est)
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
(new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
850.4 FY2018Q3 - 19Q1
- only first 3 Quarters
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


570.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
492.6 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 8 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 4 periods of 5 full Quarters of Trump are the 4 largest such gains in history.
The past 3 Quarters alone have a greater gain than all but 2 of pre-Trump full 4 Quarter periods.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is reflecting the anti-economy Election of November. This is Trump's 2nd Q1 period, well below his first, now that the steam has dissipated by the Election results.
Next report 28 March.

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Thursday, February 28, 2019 12:06 PM

REAVERFAN


McConnell Blames Entitlements, Not GOP, for Rising Deficits

Leader sees little chance of tackling debt without Democrats
GOP passed tax cut bill adding more than $1 trillion in debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/mcconnell-blames-en
titlements-not-gop-for-rising-deficits


Hmm. No mention of the real reason for it. Typical Mitch the bitch. Lying out his ass.

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Saturday, March 2, 2019 2:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Trump's Tax Reform finally allowed Voters for High Taxes to pay their Fair Share, by reducing their deductible amounts of the High Taxes that they vote to have.
So now MSM is reporting that this is "harmful" to these High Tax Lovers.

A thought occurs to me. California has been flirting with the idea of seceding, or splitting into 2 States. I wonder if New York has discussed divorcing itself from NYC.

Now MSM is reporting that 11 Million Tax Payers are now paying their Fair Share, returning $323Billion to Federal Revenues, instead of subsidizing High-Tax Voters.


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/11-million-taxpayers-losing-323-114814786.ht
ml

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Tuesday, March 5, 2019 2:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



The Monthly Treasury Statement for January was just released, delayed from the Pelosi Shutdown.


CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.


CBO released the Monthly Update then.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54961

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1212 1170 1097 1372
%Pj7 1423 1102 1003 1297
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859 1131


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.

Next CBO Monthly Update scheduled for 7 March.

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Thursday, March 7, 2019 8:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



The Monthly Treasury Statement for January was just released, delayed from the Pelosi Shutdown.


CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.


CBO released the Monthly Update then.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54961

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pj7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859 1131 --891


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.

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Friday, March 22, 2019 8:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



The Monthly Treasury Statement for February was just released, delayed from the Pelosi Shutdown.


CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.


CBO released the Monthly Update then.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54961

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310 --544
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pj7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859 1131 --891


Display stabilization row:
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Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.

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Thursday, March 28, 2019 11:48 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



And with today's new data:
2019Q1 data downgraded from $233.2 B to $206.9 B, which was the Quarter that the Election was in, ending in December.

The 3rd consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.



Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,033.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1 (est)


878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

824.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q1 - only first 3 Quarters
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


570.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
492.6 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 8 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 4 periods of 5 full Quarters of Trump are the 4 largest such gains in history.
The past 3 Quarters alone have a greater gain than all but 2 of pre-Trump full 4 Quarter periods.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is reflecting the anti-economy Election of November. This is Trump's 2nd Q1 period, well below his first, now that the steam has dissipated by the Election results.
Next report 26 April.

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