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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
Unemployment Rate Facts
Friday, April 5, 2019 11:02 AM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: BLS currently defines the Want A Job category as not being part of the Labor Force. So I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency.
Quote:The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. The Unemployment Rate after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Want A Job category, which Obamanomics managed to increase to over 7 Million for the only time in the BLS tables. This Jan figure (Want A Job) didn't return to within 0.1% of 2008 level until 2018, after Trump's first year. The figure of Unemployed plus Want A Job is indisputably the real Unfake Unemployment figure. The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year. The Want A Job count maxxed out in Aug 2012, just as Obama was proclaiming that Unemployment Rates had dropped, which he needed to get below 8.0% by October, in order to win re-election.
Friday, April 5, 2019 11:04 AM
Quote:I will post some actual numbers and let the comparisons and discussion follow. The documented shenanigans of Obamabots deliberately refusing to Report jobless data in the months before the 2012 Election are a different matter, I will just use the Fake Data they produced and pretend it was real. The BLS uses both Seasonally Adjusted figures and Unadjusted figures, and interchanges them without clearly identifying so. For example, the current Rate of 4.1% (for 4 months straight) is SeasAdj, and the real Rate is 4.5% for Jan 2018. I will use only the Unadjusted numbers, to help maintain clarity and transparency. Some numbers may have a 0 placed as first digit, to maintain column form in this format. The 1st column of numbers is the unemployed. The 2nd column is the Rate. The 3rd column is what is called Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, which is included in the Want A Job Now category but NOT included in the Labor Force category and therefore excluded from the reported Unemployment category. The 5th column is the sum of Unemployed plus Marginally Attached - which more accurately represents the Actual Unemployed. The 6th column is the Rate for column 5 figure. The 7th column is the Involuntary Part-Time workers, who are Not Employed Full Time due to poor Economy, and want, are able to work FT. The 8th column is the Rate for column 7. The 9th column is the sum of the 5th column plus 7th column. 10th column is the Rate for column 9 figure. The Rates in columns 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 have the denominator of Labor Force. The 11th column is the Civilian Population. 12th column is Labor Force, 13th column is Participation Rate. 14th column is the published U-6 figure.
Quote:Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935. The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression. The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017.
Quote:Comparing to The Great Depression: the Unemployment peaked in 1933 at 24.75% with 12.830 Million unemployed. In 1932 there were 12.060 M unemployed, and 11.340M in 1934, 10.610 in 1935. The 5 year stretch from 2009 to 2014 exceeded 12.9 Million each year, more Unemployed than the Great Depression. And 2014 was only less with the Fake figure, but including Marginally Attached was still more than Great Depression. The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. The Unemployment Rate was almost doubled by Jan 2010, and the Fake figure didn't return to 2008 level until Jan 2016. This figure after 2008 was able to be artificially less by shifting more unemployed into the Marginally Attached category, which Obamanomics managed to almost double. This Jan figure didn't return to 2008 level until 2017, after Trump was Elected. With 10 Million in 2008, this count did not fall back to sub-10 Million until 2017. With Obamanomics pushing more into the Involuntary Part-Time group, this also got bloated to disguise the horrible Unemployment problems, and this Rate did not return to 2008 level until 2018. The Jan Rate of all 3 categories combined of Obamanomics Unemployment did not fall back to 2008 level until 2018. The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.
Friday, April 5, 2019 11:06 AM
Friday, April 5, 2019 11:07 AM
Quote: The Civilian Adult Population steadily Increases, suggesting that figure is not manipulated. Except possibly 2010, 2011, 2016. The Labor Force Participation Rate steadily dropped each year until finally reversing in 2017, Trump's first year.
Friday, April 5, 2019 2:55 PM
SECOND
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I hope this makes sense. I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.
Friday, April 5, 2019 5:27 PM
REAVERFAN
Saturday, April 6, 2019 2:17 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I hope this makes sense. I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.A picture is worth a thousand words, but in your case the picture is worth 100 thousand words: US job market is the strongest it’s been since 1969 https://qz.com/1587484/
Quote:
Sunday, April 7, 2019 4:53 PM
Monday, April 8, 2019 2:32 PM
Thursday, April 11, 2019 9:57 PM
Quote:Originally posted by reaverfan: The Trump slump is coming. It may be here already https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/31/1846173/-The-Trump-slump-is-coming-It-may-be-here-already?detail=emaildkre It appears this was the week where the economic fantasies put forth by The Man Who Lost the Popular Vote came back to reality. The headlines on Thursday were not pretty: Wall Street Journal: U.S. Economy Had Less Momentum Heading Into 2019 as Corporate Profits Stalled NBC News: Economy slumping faster than expected, with fourth-quarter GDP revised down Washington Post: GDP revised downward for 2018 as U.S. economy shows more signs of slowing As the headline of a New York Times analysis put it: “Trump Owns the Economy Now, for Better or Worse." Trump, both before and since taking office, has repeatedly promised to increase U.S. economic growth to 4 percent per year: “We're bringing it (the GDP) from 1 percent up to 4 percent. And I actually think we can go higher than 4 percent. I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent.” Putting aside legitimate concerns about the usefulness of GDP as a measure, we now know that Trump has failed, again, to not only reach 4 percent annual growth, but even to reach 3 percent. The only way he got within shouting distance of 3 percent for 2018 was by enacting a budget-busting, $1.5 trillion bonanza of tax cuts aimed mostly at billionaires and millionaires that has done little other than lead to stock buybacks that pad the corporate bottom line. According to the Tax Policy Center, households in the top 1 percent will walk away with a bigger chunk of the benefits from Trump’s plan than will those in the bottom 60 percent combined. That kind of temporary economic growth reflects a “sugar high”—and any parent or caregiver knows what happens not too long after that sugar high goes away. The “headache” is coming soon.
Thursday, April 11, 2019 10:03 PM
Thursday, April 18, 2019 3:05 PM
Friday, April 26, 2019 10:54 PM
Thursday, May 2, 2019 10:35 AM
Friday, May 3, 2019 8:38 AM
Friday, May 3, 2019 8:39 AM
Friday, May 3, 2019 8:40 AM
Friday, May 3, 2019 8:41 AM
Friday, May 3, 2019 8:42 AM
Friday, May 3, 2019 10:08 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: This Table of Data, which breaks down the numerical changes in the key figures. I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-6 I hope this makes sense. I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.
Friday, May 3, 2019 10:23 AM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: This Table of Data, which breaks down the numerical changes in the key figures. I will refer to this set of data as Table JSF-URF-6 I hope this makes sense. I am certainly interested in hearing valid arguments about how or why this is not a clear presentation of the data.Why don't you use graphs? Everybody uses graphs rather than tables because it is easier to understand trends over years and years. See for example: www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-263000-jobs-in-april-and-unemployment-falls-to-49-year-low-of-36-2019-05-03?mod=pulse_full_story
Friday, May 3, 2019 10:35 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Where on your graph do you show 3.3% Unemployment Rate, or 6.9%? Are you lying, or hiding the numbers? Why do you only use graphs to lie? Why must you insist upon being dishonest?
Friday, May 3, 2019 3:07 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Where on your graph do you show 3.3% Unemployment Rate, or 6.9%? Are you lying, or hiding the numbers? Why do you only use graphs to lie? Why must you insist upon being dishonest?Check the Bureau of Labor Statistics: www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm If you place your cursor on the graph, you can see the actual numbers. If you want a table, click "Show table", but the table is just numbers. What you need is insight not numbers. www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/reasons-for-unemployment.htm Reasons for unemployment, seasonally adjusted, Thousands — Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs — Job losers not on temporary layoff — Job losers on temporary layoff — Job leavers — Re-entrants — New entrants
Friday, May 3, 2019 3:51 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Do you even bother to look at the manure you post? Where is the 3.3% figure for April 2019? Where is the 6.9% figure for April 2019? What was the U-6 figure 49 years ago? Your fake numbers are one reason this thread was started, and continued. Posting the real numbers, instead of your lies, helps folk see the real trends, and also help expose your lies for the lies that they are. What you need is real numbers, actual numbers, not more of your lies.
Friday, May 3, 2019 6:12 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Do you even bother to look at the manure you post? Where is the 3.3% figure for April 2019? Where is the 6.9% figure for April 2019? What was the U-6 figure 49 years ago? Your fake numbers are one reason this thread was started, and continued. Posting the real numbers, instead of your lies, helps folk see the real trends, and also help expose your lies for the lies that they are. What you need is real numbers, actual numbers, not more of your lies. Look, stupid person, you don't know that the figure for April is 3.3% rather than the 3.6% from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. You are making up estimated numbers, pulling them out of your ass. Labeling your table of date as Table JSF-URF-6, with the JSF standing for JewelStaiteFan, does not give you believable authority.
Friday, May 3, 2019 6:26 PM
Friday, May 3, 2019 7:46 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: One potentially troubling observation from today is that, with U-3 at 3.3% and U-6 at 6.9%, the U-3 is significantly less than half of U-6, and less than Marginally Attached plus Involuntary Part-Time. This has barely occurred before, but only by 0.1% or so. Now it is 1/3 of a percent. Similarly, the Shadowstats data shows the largest gap so far.
Friday, May 3, 2019 8:59 PM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Friday, May 3, 2019 9:23 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Part time shit jobs don't make up for full time good paying jobs with benefits. None of these numbers account for that. Trump was right when he called the numbers bullshit when Obama is president. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Saturday, May 4, 2019 6:25 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Part time shit jobs don't make up for full time good paying jobs with benefits. None of these numbers account for that. Trump was right when he called the numbers bullshit when Obama is president. Trump is lying when he says that the numbers are good now. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: This is why these new figures and calculations for Unemployment were created in 1994, to hide the fact that Clinton was permanently shipping jobs away with NAFTA. And Obama was able to accelerate this practice.
Saturday, May 4, 2019 7:58 AM
Saturday, May 4, 2019 9:55 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Spoken like somebody who has too much money. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Saturday, May 4, 2019 10:56 AM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Spoken like somebody who has too much money. Do Right, Be Right. :)I do not have too much money. I have too many responsibilities that I better not fuck up or else a lot people will lose their jobs. Remember that you tested well on electronics and PLCs about three years ago? I would find where you mentioned it a fff.net, but you are not paying me enough to work as your memory manager. You should have finished whatever training you started to learn this stuff and then moved to where the jobs are. You'd be much richer than you are today. Your life would be so different. The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Saturday, May 4, 2019 1:20 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Maybe you can pretend to be a human being for the twelve seconds it would take out of your life to wish me luck. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Saturday, May 4, 2019 7:35 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Maybe you can pretend to be a human being for the twelve seconds it would take out of your life to wish me luck. Do Right, Be Right. :)Good luck. Feel better? These people need several million firefly fans to buy Jeep Cherokees over the next 40 years. Luck won't do these people good. Buy a Jeep. Or not. Whatever you want to do for them and your buying decisions will show in the Unemployment Rate Facts: 'I'm 57. How employable am I going to be?' www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/im-57-how-employable-am-i-going-to-be-nearly-1400-autoworkers-are-about-to-lose-their-jobs/ar-AAARut5 When the final whistle blows this weekend for workers on the third shift at the Belvidere Assembly Plant near Rockford, Illinois, the nearly 1,400 members of “C Crew” will punch out for the last time, downsized out of a job because of slowing demand for the plant’s only product — the Jeep Cherokee. It is a straightforward business decision for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, which is scaling back to a traditional two-shift schedule at the plant amid softening sales and a glut of competitors. But for residents of Belvidere, a small river city situated amid sprawling cornfields about 75 miles northwest of Chicago, Monday will be anything but business as usual. “I’m scared,” said Mike Dovey, 57, of Poplar Grove, whose two years at the plant end Saturday. “There’s a lot of uncertainty. You don’t have a job, you’ve still got to pay all your bills.” Dovey was among the 1,371 least-tenured union workers at the plant who received notice from Fiat Chrysler in February that the third crew — and their jobs — would be eliminated in May. In addition, hundreds of employees at nearby suppliers like Syncreon and Android have been permanently laid off as well, according to state filings. The anxiety among residents here is palpable, even as the plant, which employed 5,464 at the start of 2019, will likely remain the region’s largest employer. The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Saturday, May 4, 2019 9:24 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Maybe you can pretend to be a human being for the twelve seconds it would take out of your life to wish me luck. Do Right, Be Right. :)Good luck. Feel better? These people need several million firefly fans to buy Jeep Cherokees over the next 40 years. Luck won't do these people good. Buy a Jeep. Or not. Whatever you want to do for them and your buying decisions will show in the Unemployment Rate Facts: 'I'm 57. How employable am I going to be?' www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/im-57-how-employable-am-i-going-to-be-nearly-1400-autoworkers-are-about-to-lose-their-jobs/ar-AAARut5 When the final whistle blows this weekend for workers on the third shift at the Belvidere Assembly Plant near Rockford, Illinois, the nearly 1,400 members of “C Crew” will punch out for the last time, downsized out of a job because of slowing demand for the plant’s only product — the Jeep Cherokee. It is a straightforward business decision for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, which is scaling back to a traditional two-shift schedule at the plant amid softening sales and a glut of competitors. But for residents of Belvidere, a small river city situated amid sprawling cornfields about 75 miles northwest of Chicago, Monday will be anything but business as usual. “I’m scared,” said Mike Dovey, 57, of Poplar Grove, whose two years at the plant end Saturday. “There’s a lot of uncertainty. You don’t have a job, you’ve still got to pay all your bills.” Dovey was among the 1,371 least-tenured union workers at the plant who received notice from Fiat Chrysler in February that the third crew — and their jobs — would be eliminated in May. In addition, hundreds of employees at nearby suppliers like Syncreon and Android have been permanently laid off as well, according to state filings. The anxiety among residents here is palpable, even as the plant, which employed 5,464 at the start of 2019, will likely remain the region’s largest employer. Been there. Done that. I've got nothing but sympathy for these people. Especially the "lifers" that have worked there for decades and don't know how bad the job market is for the majority of us. There's absolutely no way in hell that somebody who is 57 is going to find a job making close to what they made before. When that plant shutters its doors, their life the way they were accustomed to living it is over. Period. They'll be able to find any service job they want though. Flipping burgers, stocking shelves, maybe taking care of the elderly at near minimum wage... If they didn't save, they're in trouble. I used to think I was immune to that because of the decisions I had made. The last month has been a very rude awakining for me. My own life is about to be full of some drastic changes, and in a hurry. Wish I could say that everything is going to work out fine in the end, but I'm only going to give that 50/50 right now. I've been in desperate need of a change for a long time now. Looks as though I'm going to be forced into one whether I like it or not. The only thing I can do is try to keep my head on straight and maintain a positive outlook. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Maybe you can pretend to be a human being for the twelve seconds it would take out of your life to wish me luck. Do Right, Be Right. :)Good luck. Feel better? These people need several million firefly fans to buy Jeep Cherokees over the next 40 years. Luck won't do these people good. Buy a Jeep. Or not. Whatever you want to do for them and your buying decisions will show in the Unemployment Rate Facts: 'I'm 57. How employable am I going to be?' www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/im-57-how-employable-am-i-going-to-be-nearly-1400-autoworkers-are-about-to-lose-their-jobs/ar-AAARut5 When the final whistle blows this weekend for workers on the third shift at the Belvidere Assembly Plant near Rockford, Illinois, the nearly 1,400 members of “C Crew” will punch out for the last time, downsized out of a job because of slowing demand for the plant’s only product — the Jeep Cherokee. It is a straightforward business decision for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, which is scaling back to a traditional two-shift schedule at the plant amid softening sales and a glut of competitors. But for residents of Belvidere, a small river city situated amid sprawling cornfields about 75 miles northwest of Chicago, Monday will be anything but business as usual. “I’m scared,” said Mike Dovey, 57, of Poplar Grove, whose two years at the plant end Saturday. “There’s a lot of uncertainty. You don’t have a job, you’ve still got to pay all your bills.” Dovey was among the 1,371 least-tenured union workers at the plant who received notice from Fiat Chrysler in February that the third crew — and their jobs — would be eliminated in May. In addition, hundreds of employees at nearby suppliers like Syncreon and Android have been permanently laid off as well, according to state filings. The anxiety among residents here is palpable, even as the plant, which employed 5,464 at the start of 2019, will likely remain the region’s largest employer.
Sunday, May 5, 2019 5:35 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: It's those with Juniority. That 57 year old was there 2 years. If at age 55 he didn't learn a thing, how is that anybody else's fault?
Monday, May 6, 2019 9:28 AM
Thursday, May 9, 2019 8:57 AM
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Saturday, May 18, 2019 4:17 PM
Saturday, May 25, 2019 4:50 PM
Thursday, May 30, 2019 5:58 PM
Thursday, June 6, 2019 8:37 PM
Friday, June 7, 2019 4:32 PM
Friday, June 7, 2019 4:33 PM
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