REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Meanwhile, back in Libya

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Saturday, June 4, 2016 03:46
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Sunday, August 21, 2011 7:45 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

Six months and more than 17,000 air sorties after it began, NATO's Operation Unified Protector in the skies over Libya grinds on.

What was envisaged in March as a rapid engagement to prevent Moammar Gadhafi's forces from razing Benghazi to the ground has evolved into a long slog. And increasingly NATO operations have dovetailed with those of the rebels -- with the aim of making pro-Gadhafi forces incapable of offensive action.

The initial mandate set out by the United Nations Security Council resolution 1973 was to protect civilians under threat or attack, to enforce an arms embargo on the country and implement a no-fly zone.

"What was initially supposed to be a neutral intervention to protect civilians that were threatened specifically in Benghazi has morphed into being largely a one-sided affair to support the Libyan rebel force to overthrow Gadhafi," says Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations.
.....
Derek Flood, a journalist and analyst with the Jamestown Foundation, has just spent several weeks in western Libya. "I found the rebels had become almost overly dependent on NATO to the point they wouldn't act without NATO actually softening up the targets first."
.....
There appears to be growing coordination between NATO and rebel military commanders.
Video footage emerged at the beginning of this month of a column of rebel tanks and pickup trucks, outside the city of Brega in eastern Libya, daubed with orange paint to distinguish them from government forces and ensure they weren't erroneously bombed.
.....
NATO's mission has shifted in another way. After hitting more than 3,000 military targets -- from ammunition dumps to tanks to radar and command-and-control facilities -- there are not many more left. So it has turned to the regime's infrastructure. The satellite dishes of Libyan state TV were bombed on the grounds that the broadcaster was being used to "incite violence." The radar at Tripoli airport also was taken out, and the sprawling Gadhafi compound in Tripoli has been targeted several times.
.....
Zenko says the goal from early on has been regime change, and the latest tactic is to try to cut off all economic and outside supplies to make it cease functioning.
.....
NATO's current mandate in Libya expires at the end of September. Its members may yet be asked to extend it once again. http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/19/libya.nato.analysis/index.h
tml?hpt=hp_t1

...and this surprises exactly who?

It seems so strange that it seems like so often when a war "happens", the exterior force going in always thinks it will be some kind of "rapid engagement". I'm assuming, since most people know that it never works out that way, that it's politispeak to say it WILL, so that we'll believe that and as such, approve of the engagement. It makes me wonder just how stupid they think we are...and that, given "the people" always go along with it, how stupid many of us actually ARE!

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Sunday, August 21, 2011 10:25 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


Hello,

We are definitely that stupid. And until/unless we see heavy casualties, most people will never notice that we're fighting yet another war.

And when this is all over, if the rebels win their rebellion, I trust they will treat us with the same deference, gratitude, and respect that we show to the French for their vital aid in our revolution.

--Anthony



_______________________________________________

“If you are not free to choose wrongly and irresponsibly, you are not free at all”

Jacob Hornberger

“Freedom is not worth having if it does not connote freedom to err. It passes my comprehension how human beings, be they ever so experienced and able, can delight in depriving other human beings of that precious right.”

Mahatma Gandhi

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Sunday, August 21, 2011 3:49 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Meanwhile, reports say that Qaddafi's son has been captured and the Palace Guard have surrendered. Looks like it's endgame for Qaddafi.

Not going to miss him at all, but I'm not crazy about the way this was done, and it will definitely make for interesting times in the area.

"Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservatives." - John Stuart Mill

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Sunday, August 21, 2011 4:50 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


And when we install a pliant regime, it will sell us oil and take our dollars in return, sell their tons of gold, and borrow a bazillion dollars from the IMF.

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Monday, August 22, 2011 1:15 AM

DREAMTROVE


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
And when we install a pliant regime, it will sell us oil and take our dollars in return, sell their tons of gold, and borrow a bazillion dollars from the IMF.



Sig, you're really getting this one. I only have one thing to add to that: *Sell us the oil at absurd discount prices, like $3 a barrel. Oh, also, sign our trade treaties.


That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Monday, August 22, 2011 1:24 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Well, I know that's the *IDEA* behind backing the rebels...

... but what if they have other ideas?

How cheap is that Iraqi oil, for instance?


I'm happy for the people of Libya if ousting Qaddafi brings them more freedom and a better, more representative government that looks out for its people. But I'm leery that it really has a tangible fiscal upside for us. I know the old time-tested methods are still being tried - oust an unfriendly regime, install a puppet, make 'em an offer they can't refuse vis-a-vis trade contracts, and let the corporations hold sway. What I question is whether that's still a valid business model. We seem to be seeing an awful lot of it NOT working out that way lately... Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Syria, Sudan, Somalia...

It's not that such places and their new governments are necessarily HOSTILE to us, but they aren't really willing to just lie down and be our compliant little puppets in most cases, either.

And I say, good for them! After all, if a nation doesn't have its right of self-determination, then it's not by any stretch a free nation, is it? And our whole idea of "spreading democracy" in the area is supposed to mean that these nations are free to not do what we'd like if that's what they desire.

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Monday, August 22, 2011 2:15 AM

OLDENGLANDDRY

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Monday, August 22, 2011 2:57 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
And when we install a pliant regime, it will sell us oil and take our dollars in return, sell their tons of gold, and borrow a bazillion dollars from the IMF.



And send all the ex-regime leaders to Gitmo.

So is this that "Change we can believe in"?

(Sorry. Couldn't resist )

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Monday, August 22, 2011 5:05 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Geezer, you sound like a disappointed lover!

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Monday, August 22, 2011 5:40 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


It's kinda funny; I put this up because we haven't been paying attention to Libya lately (or not much, anyway). One day later it's all over the news, and there have been big breaking events.

Now it's THREE of his sons ( http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/22/libya.gadhafi.sons/index.ht
ml?hpt=hp_t1
) I was listening to it on the news last night, and yes, it does sound like the end is near.

And yes, I also have the same worries about a post-Ghadafi Libya.
Quote:

Tribal rivalries, an east-west divide, a rebel leadership lacking coherence, a shattered economy and the absence of a "civil society" -- these are just a few of the challenges that a post-Gadhafi Libya will face.
As to oil interests, I have my doubts:
Quote:

Oil prices were mixed Monday as Moammar Gadhafi's regime appeared to be closer to tottering on the brink of defeat.

Brent oil, which is tied to the European market, dropped 1% to $107.55 a barrel, while U.S. crude prices rose more than 1% to $83.46 a barrel.

The disparity between the two prices is due to the fact that Brent will feel the more immediate impact from Libyan oil coming back online, whereas U.S. prices are more insulated.

Dan Dicker, an oil trader for 25 years and the author of "Oil's Endless Bid: Taming the Unreliable Price of Oil to Secure Our Economy" {said} "I see the price coming down on Brent as more of a knee jerk reaction," said Dicker, estimating that it will take a long time for Libyan oil to flow back into the market. "You're not going to see a barrel of oil from Libya for at least a year." http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/22/markets/oil_libya/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

These uprisings and overthrowings aren't guaranteed to work out the way the US--or the West in general--hope. Remember Egypt?
Quote:

In March, a set of constitutional amendments that paved the way for elections was overwhelmingly approved in a referendum that drew record numbers of voters. But anger over what many demonstrators saw as the military's loyalty to the core of Mr. Mubarak's government and the slow pace of change led to new mass protests and violence in April.

Economically, Egypt is struggling, as a system whose inequities and lack of opportunities helped topple a government, has now ground to a virtual halt, further wounded by the revolution itself.

The military's 18-member ruling council said it would hand over legislative powers after the parliamentary election in September 2011, and that executive powers would be transferred after the presidential election, which will be held by November. Many of the younger leaders of the protest movement worry that the long established and well organized Muslim Brotherhood could dominate voting, although the Brotherhood insists it does not want to become the ruling party.

The prospect of Egypt’s first open election in the fall has prompted a wide-ranging debate over radically divergent economic proposals. They include deep cuts to the bloated government work force and vast public subsidies, a leftist re-expansion of the state’s role in the economy, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s plan to impose a 7.5 percent income surtax on all Muslims to fulfill their religious mandate to give to charity. But the campaign has also revealed internal divisions within the Brotherhood, as the unifying sense of opposition to a secular dictatorship fades and various factions — including two breakaway political parties and much of the group’s youth — move toward the political center.

Politically, the country remains fragile. In late June, a peaceful protest in Tahrir Square turned into a night of clashes between the police and protesters in which more than 1,000 people were injured. The turmoil, which seemed to take almost everyone by surprise, showed that almost any spark can ignite simmering tensions. Among the protestors, a unity of purpose has given way to a multiplicity of demands, mirroring the divides that beset Egypt’s political life.
.....
{Recent developments:}June 29 A night of fighting between demonstrators and security forces made clear that there were differences not only between the government and protesters, but between those who want faster change and those who are growing weary of the post-revolutionary tumult.
.....
July 12 In a summer of discontent, thousands of protesters have returned to Tahrir Square; everywhere in Egypt, it seems, expectations— about who should rule, how they should rule and who should decide the way they rule — have not been met.
.....
July 29 Tens of thousands of Egyptian Islamists poured into Tahrir Square and called for a state bound by strict religious law. They delivered a persuasive show of force in a turbulent country showing deep divisions and growing signs of polarization.
.....
Aug. 1 Central Tahrir Square was forcibly cleared of the remnants of the three-week-old sit-in protesting the slow pace of change since the revolution, with hundreds of Egyptian troops and security police officers shredding tents, arresting dozens of protesters and sending about 200 others fleeing into nearby streets as the Ramadan holiday was about to begin. http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritori
es/egypt/index.html
also:
Quote:

Witnesses discussed the role and influence of the Muslim Brotherhood and militant Islamic groups, as well as the increase in violent attacks targeting Coptic Christians and their churches.

The Commission also heard about reports of disappearances, forced conversions and forced marriages of Coptic Christian women and girls.

It's not over 'till it's over, anywhere in that area. And how long before it's over is anyone's guess.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Monday, August 22, 2011 6:25 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Egypt will work out its internal rights and politics soon enough. The military caretaker government is not about to stand in the way of millions of angry Egyptians.

The bigger problem is the economy. So far, the military government has done one RIGHT thing, and that is to refuse a loan offered by the IMF (June 25, 2011). However, in order for economy to become unleashed, they need to shake off the corruption that is sapping every aspect of production.

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Monday, August 22, 2011 7:18 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Geezer, you sound like a disappointed lover!



Hey, you're the one Pres. Obama and the Dems are cheating on.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Tuesday, August 23, 2011 7:11 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Weird this slipped way down the list, nobody's interested? Been watching the news; they've taken Ghadafi's compound and are going room to room looking for family members. They're no doubt long gone by now, but it's fascinating to watch.

The journalist was saying they were driving toward Tripoli when the rebels first got in there, and saw many, many people WALKING to the city, hitching rides, etc. He said you'd see small groups of five or six people, and only three of them would have guns, the others were going to the fight without arms. Apparently when Ghadafi's miltary retreats, they leave EVERYTHING behind, so most of the rebels are armed with stuff they've taken from his army.

Had a thought: Egypt went down relatively fast, and with the help of the army were relatively organized, yet they're still trying to sort out a government, there was looting right after they won, etc. Lybia's been at it since February, much more a popular uprising wihtout leaders, against much higher odds, yet they've already formed a government (which has been recognized by the UN), are working on a constitution, and (so far) there's been no looting or mob rule. Interesting.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Tuesday, August 23, 2011 7:14 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Sig, I agree.

I find it interesting that the right is SO contrary that they can't even give Obama credit for making the right decision in this matter. I hear them saying "It's nice, but we should have gone in and it would have been over long ago", even some of those who said we shouldn't be involved AT ALL originally. From what I've heard, not a one has said much good about Obama or that he made the right decision with "no boots on the ground", resulting in not one American death. Truly the right has come to a sad place.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Tuesday, August 23, 2011 10:06 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


The problem is, Gaddafi actually had (has?) support: from his tribe and an allying tribe (Can't remember which one) which between the two of them made up about half of the population.

If the new PTB don't govern evenhandedly, then Libya will just be set up for another power see-saw. And I suspect that the new PTB will wind up taking loans from the IMF and/or the World Bank. I hope not, because that is the road to ruination.

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Tuesday, August 23, 2011 10:20 AM

DREAMTROVE


Geezer,

good point, too true.


Mike,

I assume they thought this one through and are able to pull out support from anyone who doesn't hand them the oil and sign the trade treaties. Passed that, they don't care.


That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Tuesday, August 23, 2011 2:33 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


Well I'm glad the rebels got it together and are getting somewhere with more of a plan and strategy, good for them! As to whether, or how much, America had to do with that I don't know. I still say we shouldn't have sent troops. Maybe an advisor or two, but not troops, we're already bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, I have a two war limit.

But I hope things improve from here and the people get what they want. And I do think the people should be the ones trying Qadaffi, not the UN, because the people he's wronged should get to determine his punishment.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Tuesday, August 23, 2011 6:08 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Riona, last I heard there AREN'T U.S. troops in Libya, unless they're there by dint of being shot down.

Have you heard something I haven't?

Mind you, I don't discount that we WILL have troops in Libya at some point, especially if this whole regime-change thing doesn't go quite as we hope...

"Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservatives." - John Stuart Mill

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Tuesday, August 23, 2011 8:17 PM

FREMDFIRMA


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
If the new PTB don't govern evenhandedly, then Libya will just be set up for another power see-saw. And I suspect that the new PTB will wind up taking loans from the IMF and/or the World Bank. I hope not, because that is the road to ruination.


Oh come now, you know they already agreed to, if they hadn't, we'd have been bombing THEM.

That said, I ain't buyin anybodys story of events just yet, some of this stuff comes off a little hinky, and the one guy I am in contact on the ground there (such as is possible with language barriers..) hates both "sides" and says they're all fulla shit.

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Wednesday, August 24, 2011 6:23 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Sig, Ghadaffi has been screaming about the "hoards" of his supporters who are going to show up and destroy the rebels for a long, long time now...and nobody's shown up. Definitely he might make it back to his own city and they might well support him, but thus far, there have been no "masses" of supporters who have come to his aid. Then again, he's been promising volcanoes and lava lately, too, and those haven't shown up either...yet.

From what I've been hearing/reading, the mercenaries he's had doing his dirty work have kind of melted away when the rebels got to Tripoli, so tho' if he manages to get out, he might find backing for an insurrection (gawd forbid), I don't see anyone coming to save him in the current siuation.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Wednesday, August 24, 2011 6:48 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


Hello,

Well said, Frem.

Our CIA 'advisors' weren't just there to help the war effort and train soldiers.

They were there to make and get promises, forge alliances, and funnel support and cash to the people we feel are most likely to bend over and take it when we want them to.

This isn't speculation. It's standard operating procedure. It doesn't always go down according to plan, but our few 'boots on the ground' are primarily concerned with ensuring that this all pans out the way we want it to.

--Anthony

_______________________________________________

“If you are not free to choose wrongly and irresponsibly, you are not free at all”

Jacob Hornberger

“Freedom is not worth having if it does not connote freedom to err. It passes my comprehension how human beings, be they ever so experienced and able, can delight in depriving other human beings of that precious right.”

Mahatma Gandhi

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Wednesday, August 24, 2011 8:31 AM

FREMDFIRMA


I expect them to be rather rudely surprised too, Anthony - since they're no reason not to lie to us for the same reason Chavez ain't afraid of us, we're in it so far up to the neck elsewhere that there's not much beyond harrassment we could DO to them once they have their defenses in order.

I figure they shovelled us a load of bullshit to get that support, and have no more intention of carrying through on it than we ever do of the promises we make - simple justice, you ask me, although I feel we shoulda stayed out of it cause all that effort and money we wasted on it only hastened the inevitable by maybe a week at best.

ETA: I take it you've been investigating the shadow realm, for lack of a better word, and now have a greater understanding of my unrelenting, bitter hatred of those bastards, given that I was almost one of em.

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Sunday, May 29, 2016 11:07 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Royal Navy ship to patrol off the coast of Libya in battle against ISIS arms-smugglers in dramatic escalation of British role

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3611805/Royal-Navy-ship-patrol
-coast-Libya-battle-against-ISIS-arms-smugglers-dramatic-escalation-British-role.html


British Navy warship could be sent into Libyan waters to stop Islamic State smuggling arms out of the chaotic country.


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Sunday, May 29, 2016 4:38 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


THANKS A BUNCH HILLARY! for giving us the failed state of Libya!

Job well done!




Let me just point out that the author left out vital relevant facts in the opinion piece. Doing that is known as cherry-picking. And whether you do that in the news, in discussion, in debate or in opinion, when you distort the facts, you've changed the nature of your communication into propaganda. But WE don't have any of THAT in the US, do we?!

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Saturday, June 4, 2016 3:46 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


UN special envoy says Libya must unite against IS


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