GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

the scary calculations involving getting Serenity to profit

POSTED BY: ETHAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 3, 2006 10:01
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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:14 AM

ETHAN


I like to be as positive as the next person about getting Serenity to profitability. But after talking to a friend in the film industry, I realized that may be far more difficult than I originally thought. Consider the following.

Serenity made about 35 million USD worldwide. Theaters keep roughly half the box office receipts. So that leaves about 17.5 mil for Universal.

DVD sales average 9 dollars in profit for the studios, but 20% of that profit is distributed to actors and film crew as royalties. Big name stars and directors sometimes leverage higher royalty rates but I don't think this is the case with Serenity. Rounding down, Universal will pocket 7 dollars for every DVD sold.

If Serenity cost 40 million to make (let's just assume marketing is included)then after it's theatrical run it was still 22.5 million USD in the red. At the rate of 7 bucks profit per Serenity DVD, roughly 3.3 million units will have to be sold before Universal breaks even on original production. We don't even know how much was spent on additional marketing for the DVD.

My friend conjectures Serenity will in the end need to earn at least 30 million in pure profits just to even trigger consideration for a sequel. That's another 4.4 million dvds.

All told, 7.7 million DVD's have to be sold for us to hope for a sequel. If Browncoat's ever needed to get the impossible done, now's the time...

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:19 AM

WHOISRIVER


It's actually slightly worse than that, heh. Marketing for the movie wasn't included in the initial production budget, nor was distribution (prints).

Prints alone is into the millions, and marketing (all those TV adverts on Lost etc) is again well, well into the millions.

Plus, some of the international releases will have lost money due to poor box office - France and Germany as two examples.

Don't get me wrong, eventually I think it'll turn a profit, but not for a good few years. For a sequel to be considered, the DVD sales need to be blistering hot for a good period of time - and that hasn't happened.

-- gossi

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:35 AM

CHRISTHECYNIC


The day that I am the voice of optimism is a scary day indeed, thankfully it isn't this day. However I think we all need to remember something, something someone said to me today on a completely different topic.

Most of the time when someone does the impossible it's because no one told them it was. If we accept the fact that what we want is impossible, or decide that we have already failed than we will be right, and it will fail. On the other hand if we have insane and illogical hope or faith that it can be done (and act on that) then there is a very slim possibility that it will be done.

I’ll take what I can get, very slim is good enough for now.

Also, I still have faith, we fight lost causes, we gathered together on a show that died. Firefly did die, Serenity wasn't even in Joss' mind yet. We had faith that something could be done in spite of the total absurdity of that idea. We acted on that faith, and it worked.

Some of us were here before, others came later, but we all share something very simple: We are here because a group of people, us, was irrational to an extreme, and it paid off.

Now is not the time for rational thought.

(How the hell did I come the point where I would say that?)

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:41 AM

CBY


"France and Germany as two examples."

They had to know that. Nobody has been able to see Firefly in German tv yet, the DVD box has been released in November '05 (!) just weeks before the movie hit the screens. That cheap strategy just doesn't work in countries with severe economical problems where nobody likes to buy a pig in a poke.

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http://www.byond-trax.com - my selfmade ambient/lounge/chillout music

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:47 AM

WHOISRIVER


In fairness, Firefly had not aired on a major UK TV channel, but it opened #1 here. If you open a movie like The Matrix, you don't expect people to know anything about it in advance. That is what movie promotion is about - you make people who don't know about something want to see it. A majority of Serenity's audience won't have even known what Firefly is.

The fact is, the promotion didn't work in Germany (and France had very little promotion).

-- gossi

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:04 AM

TINFOIL


Another thing that needs to be considered here: profit is good, investment is better. If Universal is convinced that Firefly/Serenity is a growing franchise, there's also a chance for more "stuff" down the line. Realistically, we should have never got a movie. Realistically, we should have never got a small comic run. Realistically, we shouldn't even be caring what happens next for a failed TV show that aired oh so many years ago. If you have fans demanding more and they keep demanding more, someone will put out a product for the fans.

If you ask me, we need do so something to show Universal how many fans are actually out there. Let them know we're ready to buy Firefly/Serenity related stuff. In short, if we can show someone there's profit in the future, then it's not about Serenity making money, it's about Serenity making fans.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:06 AM

CBY


Quote:

Originally posted by WhoIsRiver:
the promotion didn't work in Germany (and France had very little promotion).

-- gossi



wikipedia.com about Germany: A major issue of concern remains the persistently high unemployment rate and weak domestic demand which slows down economic growth .

When Matrix was released 6 years ago we didn't care much of this problems, now we are in the middle of them.

It's not just Serenity - "King Kong" is not a great success either and "Harry Potter IV" falls short of one's expectations as well. Both had a comparatively huge promotion behind them but it didn't help much.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:08 AM

WHOISRIVER


Yuhu, agreed. Still, it grossed about $1m in Germany I think, which I suspect won't be enough to cover the promotion (although hopefully I'm wrong!).

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:23 AM

CBY


Quote:

Originally posted by WhoIsRiver:
Yuhu, agreed. Still, it grossed about $1m in Germany I think, which I suspect won't be enough to cover the promotion (although hopefully I'm wrong!).



You're right. I didn't want to argue about the figures anyway, I just don't like the notion "The Germans/French are responsible"

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:36 AM

GROOSALUGG


I agree with TinFoil on this one. I don't believe that getting the film out of the red is the thing that's going to instantly trigger a sequel - I think it's about showing the studio that there's potential growth in the franchise. Sure, selling 7.7 million DVDs would be great, but even more important than that, let's just aim to outsell whatever Uni's projections for it are. Let's make 'em sit down a few months from now and say, "Wow, we didn't expect it to sell THAT many copies..."

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:39 AM

JAYTEE


Has anyone considered the incredible growth in the fan base since a) the release of the movie and b) the DVD release. More and more people are being exposed and I'd have to say everytime 10 people watch Serenity 4 people walk out as new Browncoats that want to know more about the 'verse they were just exposed to and the other 6 drooling mindless dolts go home to watch Fear Factor or some other mindless reality schlock. This leads to more sales of the series DVD set. This trend will continue and it may lose momentum in 2006 but since Dec 20th it's been like a snowball rolling down a mountain. Starts out small, ends up really huge. It will reach the point where Universal looks at the numbers of the DVD sales and the series DVD sales and will decide, yeah, Serenity 1 wasn't a major box office smash but the sequel should actually make money at the box office based on the growth of the fanbase. How much did the first Star Trek movie make? You know! The one that sucked! "V'jer wants to know!" (Yawn) and how many Star Trek movies followed after that? Hmm, lets see. 5 more of the original series, then Generations, then two based on Star Trek TNG. So if we stay loyal and keep spreadin the word about our vainglorious ship and it's 'verse then we might just live to see several sequels and another spinoff series.


Jaytee

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:51 AM

WHOISRIVER


Quote:

Originally posted by CBY:
Quote:

Originally posted by WhoIsRiver:
Yuhu, agreed. Still, it grossed about $1m in Germany I think, which I suspect won't be enough to cover the promotion (although hopefully I'm wrong!).



You're right. I didn't want to argue about the figures anyway, I just don't like the notion "The Germans/French are responsible"

°°°°°°°°°°°°
http://www.byond-trax.com - my selfmade ambient/lounge/chillout music



Oooh, let's just tackle this one - I don't think Germans and French people are responsible at all. It's the responsibility of the distributor (ie UIP) to provide the initial big audience through advertising. They didn't.

DVD sales are the way to speak to companies - DVD sales = money, money = more franchise material.

--gossi

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 8:04 AM

YOJIMBO


I dont know where to start..
1..It is not just DVD sales #'s that count towards a movie being profitable after it is out of the theatre's..Cable networks and tv networks buy the rights to air the movie(this is big bucks sometimes more then the total gross of DVD sales)
2..The movie cost $40 million to make...They dont add cost for promoting the DVD release to the cost of the movie budget and now say "oh it now cost 55 Million to make"..All studios pay to promote DVD releases of films...
3..I also doubt that when Joss said "it all depends on DVD sales " he meant Serenity has to sell 3 times as many DVD's as any other film has ever sold..
4..The DVD is selling far beyond most peoples expectations(its on most top 10 sales lists)..
Firefly is being offered on demand on some huge cable providers(comcast,insight) 3 years after its demise..Scifi is running the Firefly series on its friday night block...
5..Not to mention your original notion of what has to happen for the movie to be profitable is maybe 5% correct..
6..I do applaud the way you found a negative in how well Serenity is selling...(I'm Kidding)

I CANT FIND ANY USEFULL INFORMATION IN THIS NEGATIVE THREAD..THE TITLE ALONE IS TROLL COUNTRY WORTHY..PLEASE PUT IT TO DEATH QUICKLY..


IT DOES HAVE SOME FUZZY MATH,HEARSAY,AND SOME BLIND SPECULATION TO BE POSITIVE






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Sunday, January 1, 2006 8:24 AM

MYCROFTXXX


How Hollywood identifies what's profitable and what is not is a black art that even the IRS can't figure out. I personally think that all of the Browncoat enthusiasm and loyalty has more of an impact than any balance sheet be it real or "cooked up". If the bean counters were really into making profits they'd be in the stock market or bonds but where's the fun in that?

Personally, I think the future of Firefly/Serenity stories. be in movies or TV series, is going to turn on the whim of Joss and company and their desire to continue the legacy. You only have to look at Parmount's Star Trek franchise to see how it doesn't take profit to keep something going.

Never forget, Hollywood is not a logical place...

My $0.02 for what it's worth.


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Sunday, January 1, 2006 8:45 AM

VIKING


remember universal also get money from books RPG and comics


i think the key to doing hard things is beliving anything is possibel. dont listen to what shyd happen what will happen and all oter stuff peeps tell you

just belive if many enoff off us do then we will make it. belive me i have seen faith move mountains. nothing and i mean nothing is impossibel if you belive in it.





The wages of sin are death, but the hours are good and the perks are fantastic.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 9:35 AM

SUASOR


It may be possible to estimate Serenity DVD sales. In it's first week, Serenity came in number 3 overall in DVD sales. "Four Brothers", it was announced, sold 3.7 million in its first week (which was six days, compared to five for Serenity.) From what we have heard, Serenity was sold out in a lot of major outlets. I asked around, and Serenity, apparently, was not ordered as heavily as the "mainstream" stuff like Four Brothers, but outlets were able to get fast reorders (often for four or five times as many units as the initial drop.) Dunno how many Serenity DVDs Universal manufactured the first time around, but they are definitly moving product. I estimate that Serenity has sold about two million DVDs so far, and a major limiting factor is what the inventory levels are. Then again, the first week sales tend, for the best sellers, to be about half of first year sales.

There's another element to consider: Firefly DVD sales. That, by now, has easily sold over two million copies. Fox (which, like Universal, is a Murdoch operation) has thus made over $40 million on Firefly DVD sales so far. The more Serenity they sell, the more Firefly they sell. Yeah, I know, Fox and Universal have separate balance sheets, but their profits all flow to the same pot. And I'm sure whoever is counting the pot has noticed what is happening.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 10:16 AM

CHINDI


and there is another pebble to add to the scale.. as Joss and the BDH gain higher profile in Hollywood, their interests and "pet proects" will get more interest and possibly greenlit...

I LOL at the statement above that even the IRS cannot unscramble the accounting in Hollywood...lol.. too true..

I gotta hold on the side of the optimists here.. cus in Hollywood, nobody knows nothing.. and its all been said here a million times...

Time will tell, but for me.. I still think there will be more.. just gotta hunker down for the duration..


Chindi

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 11:46 AM

URSULA


Plus, a few months ago, you couldn't find Firefly on a lot of store shelves for love nor money. Now, though, everybody's carrying it, and that's going to lead to more exposure, which will lead to more browncoats, which will . . .

Well, you see where I'm goin' with this.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 12:16 PM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by YOJIMBO:
2..The movie cost $40 million to make...They dont add cost for promoting the DVD release to the cost of the movie budget and now say "oh it now cost 55 Million to make"..All studios pay to promote DVD releases of films...



Yeah, they do. There's a lot of money involved in marketing, and it has to be accounted for. Yes, the studio pays for marketing/prints on all releases, but they do factor that into the overall cost/profit margin on the project.


Quote:

Originally posted by Suasor:
Fox (which, like Universal, is a Murdoch operation) has thus made over $40 million on Firefly DVD sales so far. The more Serenity they sell, the more Firefly they sell. Yeah, I know, Fox and Universal have separate balance sheets, but their profits all flow to the same pot. And I'm sure whoever is counting the pot has noticed what is happening.



Uh...No. Fox is owned by Rupert Murdoch's Newscorp. Universal is owned by Vevendi/Seagram Corporation. Totally different mega-massive-evil-conglomerates.




For what it's worth, my opinion is we're going to see more of the 'verse in the future, but it could take a while. The movie will eventually turn a profit, but it'll take a few years, most likely. But the love is spreadimg, and the studio is bound the realize this. They may very well see a continuation of the series as a good investment, as someone noted above. But I wouldn't be surprised if this turned out like the old Star Trek, in that it might take a number of years before the Poweres That Be realize the true viability of this 'verse.
"Well, my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle."

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 12:21 PM

RUXTON


I'm gonna go out on a limb here, based on some of the insight I've got from this thread's commentators combined with my own empathetic perceptions, and PREDICT that within six months a second Serenity movie will be greenlighted. Or at the latest, whenever Wonder Woman gets some obvious and dedicated publicity.

Within six months........Serenity #2 greenlighted... = prediction.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 12:27 PM

SAMEERTIA


"There's obstacles in our path, and we're gonna deal with them, one by one. We'll get through this."
Malcolm Reynolds

Sure, odds are against us. But when did that ever stop us?

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 12:28 PM

CHINDI


Ruxton I LIKE the way you think...

Shiny

Chindi

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 12:50 PM

THEPRIMARYBUFFERPANEL


I as well believe Serenity will be green-lighted. Additionally, I believe the sequel will earn twice as much or maybe even more in the box office because of fans, like you and me.

However, Joss Whedon needs to do is takeover all aspects in and involving the film, which includes marketing and etc. He also has to be tight with money.

Thus, the best thing we can do to help the profitibility (sp?)is to tell all our friends to buy and support Serenity and Firefly.

Niska: Oh, you do not like I kill this man?
Mal: No, I'm sure he was a...very bad person.
Niska: My wife's nephew. At dinner I am getting earful. There is no way around that.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 12:59 PM

FEANOR


I'm somewhat new as a browncoat and only learned about Firefly in Sept. when Serenity came out (haha... this is even my first post on these boards), but I've been a fan of lost causes before and in my experience the fans usually get what they want if they push hard enough.

For example- I'm a huge fan of Pitch Black, and that movie bombed in the theater, but the dvd sales made the difference. To my knowledge Pitch Black only profited when they decided to make the sequel (Chronicles of Riddick) and the dvd sales picked up again. Chronicles also bombed in the theater, and the dvd sales haven't been that great, but Vin Diesel has promised to help fund the next movie if necessay.

My point is some of the commenters on this thread have been right. If you look at immediate profit now you'll be disapointed, you have to put hope in looking to future profit and future fans. Serenity dvd sales are doing well, but so are Firefly sales too (and though that doesn't go in Universal's pocket they undoubtably notice the popularity the series is gaining). The same would happen in the future with a new movie/series/whatever, it would generate interest in the past stuff like it did with me when I saw Serenity and then went out and bought Firefly. This is what I mean about factoring future profit...there's just a lot to consider without knowing all the details.

My point is lost causes aren't as 'lost' as we make them out to be by focusing on the negative. There's plenty to keep hope alive

Feanor - one of many new browncoats

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 1:09 PM

CHRISTHECYNIC


Why does no one listen to me?

NOW IS NOT THE TIME FOR RATIONAL THOUGHT.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 1:18 PM

FEANOR


Haha... my bad. It's shiny We can be irrational about this if you want

I was just trying to spread the hope and help...that's all....

Feanor - not so helpful it seems

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 1:22 PM

SAMEERTIA


Welcome to the boards, Feanor!

And you make a good point. Patience, and continuing to infect others with the meme is the best way to maintain now.


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Sunday, January 1, 2006 1:23 PM

CHRISTHECYNIC


Actually I wasn't really responding specifically to anyone, certainly not to you. Mostly to the pessimists.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 1:23 PM

RUXTON


Shoutout to everyone (like on this thread) with time to burn on 1 Jan 06, be sure to read Joss' guest TV Guide editorial here:
http://www.tvguide.com/News/Insider

Enjoy!

And don't miss Veronica Mars.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 1:32 PM

CHRISTHECYNIC


Quote:

Originally posted by SameErtia:
And you make a good point. Patience, and continuing to infect others with the meme is the best way to maintain now.


I agree, like any decent plague we must continue to spread. (I love the idea of a "meme" and the understanding that ideas spread like pathogens.)

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 1:38 PM

GATORMARC


The original post is off on several things, imo:

1) The Box office is at about $38.5 million now, not $35 million.
2) DVD Rental revenues are being ignored. I'm not sure how rentals are calculated in but they are in some fashion, right?
3) TV Rights aren't being calculated. USA paid $3 million for the network rights to Serenity, and HBO paid something like $5 million for their broadcast rights.

GatorMarc

Eat 'em up, chomp, chomp.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 4:28 PM

WHITEFALL


I agree with the guy who mentioned wonder woman...

Lets face it, Joss is tied down till he finishes wonder woman, (which i'm interested in how he, as a feminist, doesnt make it soft-core porn like i was told catwoman was) and really, he was offered a big, thing, Wonder Woman is an old franchise, and if he does it well, (which,... ok, preaching to the choir here) then he'll gain noteriety as a writer-director guy, and eventually he'll be able to do something with the 'verse. As for serenity without Joss's help... i dunno, i agree that the fanbase has greatly expanded, and a sequel would do much better than the original, because the original was never about quality of the movie, just marketing of the franchise.

it is in the nature of box office #s that the better something is advertised, the better it does. generally someone only sees a movie once, and if they walk out hating the movie, tis no big deal, they still bought a ticket. We didnt have a ton of marketing, and besides, "Serenity" on a list of movies doesnt tell you anything about it the way "40 year old virgin" unfortunately does. Just the way the stupid system works. :-\

I survived a day in Whitefall and all I got was this lousy signature!

Terrifying Space Monkey of Destiny

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 4:31 PM

SAMEERTIA


Yeah. But "Catwoman" had Peter Wingfield in it, so there's really no comparison.
Unless, of course, Peter gets a role in Wonderwoman...

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 5:51 PM

CHRISPV


I have simply two points.

1.) This is not original to me, but I think it deserves mention. The BDM came out right after Katrina hit. Everyone was depressed, gas was 3 bucks a gallon or more, money was tight. Entertainment budgets naturally get scrimped on under those circumstances. Consequently, we didn't see the turnout we hoped for. I believe that the box office as a whole took a hit at that time.

2.) Underworld got a sequel. Let that sink in. Underworld. A truly fecal film had I ever seen one. Yeah, it took a while, but it happened.

My point is, we shouldn't treat this like it's a Star Trek film or a Potter movie. A new film was never a preconception, so expecting it to happen immediately just ain't gonna happen. We're pretty much all sci-fi nerds, and we've become accustomed to knowing a film is coming out on a regular schedule, ala Spider-Man and the X-Men flicks. My advice is look at it more like back when Pierce Brosnan became James Bond. There was quite a dry spell there, but the new film was coming. We just didn't know when.

Bottom line, we WILL get ourselves a Big Damn Sequel. But, much like the Apocalypse, no one knows the day or the hour.

Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal, Fox!

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:21 PM

THEPRIMARYBUFFERPANEL


Hey, I didn't think Underworld was all that bad besides the fact it sucked.

I agree with Chris. Like the consumers that we are, we demand too much. Let Wonder Woman be made. As a dedicated fan to Firefly/Serenity/Joss, I'm willing to sit and watch the sequel to Underworld this year knowing that Serenity will have a sequel shot sometime in the future even though I won't know when. Joss has much pressure on his back and weight to carry. Even if he, Joss, does not feel up to creating the sequel, I know some rich and established fan/billionaire who's name isn't Uwe Boll will probably buy the rights to the whole series then make some okay-halfway-decent prequel/sequel.

Also, I gotsa question. Is there a thread where people have listed possible questions/topics to be answered and discussed in the sequel? I have a few of my own but I know the intellectuals here may have far more.

Niska: Oh, you do not like I kill this man?
Mal: No, I'm sure he was a...very bad person.
Niska: My wife's nephew. At dinner I am getting earful. There is no way around that.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:35 PM

CHRISPV


C'mon theprimarybufferpanel, weren't you just a wee bit annoyed when you saw that film?

"COOL! Vampires fighting werewolves! Awesome! Fangs everywhere, good old fashioned bloody carnage! Wait, they're shooting at each other?? That's it??!!?? A MATRIX RIP-OFF!!!!!! GAARRRR!"



Personally, I fully expect two or three novels and at least one more run of comics to come out before we even catch wind of a sequel.

Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal, Fox!

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 6:59 PM

CWNEK


Quote:

Originally posted by ChrisPV:
2.) Underworld got a sequel. Let that sink in. Underworld. A truly fecal film had I ever seen one. Yeah, it took a while, but it happened.



I got very excited when I heard this news. UW was WRETCHED! Then I checked Box Office Mojo...this turkey actually made pretty good money in box office receipts...then there were the suckers like me who contributed to its rental #s. But...who on Earth would subject themselves to the sequel after having suffered the original?

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:09 PM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


I liked it. I thought it was cool, plus pouty hot ass-kicking British good vampire chick in spadex.

-------------
Qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:19 PM

SAMEERTIA


I was dragged to see "Underworld" at the theater with a group of friends. Second worst 10$ I've ever spent. Worst was for that overcooked hamburger at the Blue Chalk Cafe in Palo Alto.

So really, when a movie rates only slightly better than a dried out burger, it's amazing to me that it gets a sequel.

Then again, "Highlander; The Source" is in post-production, even with the agony that was "Endgame", so there's no accounting for Hollywood.

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:32 PM

ITSBROKEN


Anyone know any figures as to how many actual fans of firefly are out there? (fans, browncoats, flans, etc) Just curious because for a tv show that got canceled not 15 aired episodes into the first season, firefly has a pretty huge fanbase.

still cant believe fox canceled the show because they thought it was not going to be profitable.. money, money, money.. it was a damn good QUALITY show, and qualtiy should always win! (not always the case though in the real world, with all these reality shows floating around. those shows should be the ones canceled)

----
Someone should count how many firefly fans are out there (fans willing to buy firefly stuffs so the suits can make money)

yeah thats my signature^

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 7:35 PM

FEANOR


Underworld was good I thought, but then I'm probably talking to a bunch of Buffy fans. It was good for what it was. But you can't really compare Underworld to Firefly/Serenity... haha.

From what I understood the director of Underworld did the same thing the Matrix did- the studio (ScreenGems i believe) were brought an offer of a trilogy and decided to buy the rights of the first movie to see how it'd do. It did well enough, so if i'm not mistaken, 2 more movies are coming for sure (counting the one this month).

I suppose that's neither here nor there though, but just thought I'd mention it. It's all marketing... there's still a big market for mindless violence. Always will be. Heck, i bought a ticket... haha

Feanor

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 8:40 PM

CHRISPV


I just couldn't get over the aforementioned "vampires/werewolves with guns" thing. It just rubbed me wrong. That, and there was nary a human to be seen. And it was always raining. It just struck me as a film that was trying so hard to be The Matrix that it took all of that film's surface assets and made them "teh extreme!!!"

That said, I think we would all be well served to just enjoy the stuff coming down the pipe, as well as, and I mean this honestly, support Wonder Woman as best we can. This can be the point where Joss gets the one thing that is actually more powerfully than money. Clout. Clout lets you re-make Psycho for no discernable reason and, to put it gently, wizz all over it. Clout lets you make a 3-hour King Kong movie.

If we can help Joss knock the Amazing Amazon's story out of the park, it might just give him a bit more weight to throw around. It's not as prevalent as it once was, but there is still the attitude in Hollywood that TV is the movies' bastard stepchild. Joss' best known film writing job is probably Alien Resurrection, and let's face it, that film was not that great. TV is seen as sort of the minor leagues. How many film actors have you seen go to a TV series, and your first thought is "How the mighty have fallen?" Heck, why is there even a distinction between film actor and TV actor? In any case, this is his big shot. We scratch his back, I bet he'll scratch ours.

He'd probably consider it a kindness.

Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal, Fox!

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Sunday, January 1, 2006 11:25 PM

RCAT


I hold out hope that 'Serenity' sales alone aren't the key. Hopefully Firefly DVD and all the associated books, comics, etc. sales are looked at too. Not to mention the revitalized and growing fanbase. The Browncoats made the impossible happen once...refusing to let this 'verse die.

I was a fan of the show from the beginning, I liked the characters, setting and story, tho' the plot confused me a bit between episodes (thanks for the "creative" programming, FOX). I was completely unaware of the initial 'movement' to resurect our BDH's but am no longer. I'm pushing it on everyone I know, and I'm hoping all the newly converted are doing so as well.

The fact that Joss and the cast are still pushing hard in interviews and blogs for folks to buy Serenity gives me hope that they haven't given up hope (holding to the belief that their motives are not completely money-grubbing for residuals).

Were still flyin' for the moment, and that's something.


"See this is another sign of your tragic space dementia, all paranoid and crochety. Breaks the heart."
-Mal

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Monday, January 2, 2006 2:21 AM

CWNEK


Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
pouty hot ass-kicking British good vampire chick in spadex.
B]



You're not kidding there. This plus a very stylish production design won my rental dollars.

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Monday, January 2, 2006 2:25 AM

CWNEK


Quote:

Originally posted by GatorMarc:
1) The Box office is at about $38.5 million now, not $35 million.
GatorMarc

Eat 'em up, chomp, chomp.



Assuming that you get your #s from the same source as I do (boxofficemojo.com...visit often...get Serenity back into the top 5 most popular!), it's worth noting that this figure does not include earnings post 11/17. Overseas is more up to date, and accounts for the slow trickle over the last 6 weeks.

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Monday, January 2, 2006 4:20 AM

GATORMARC


Quote:

Originally posted by cwnek:
Quote:

Originally posted by GatorMarc:
1) The Box office is at about $38.5 million now, not $35 million.
GatorMarc

Eat 'em up, chomp, chomp.



Assuming that you get your #s from the same source as I do (boxofficemojo.com...visit often...get Serenity back into the top 5 most popular!), it's worth noting that this figure does not include earnings post 11/17. Overseas is more up to date, and accounts for the slow trickle over the last 6 weeks.



Yep. And that also never calculated in the revenue that Universal brought in from the pre-screenings of the movie over the summer.

GatorMarc

Eat 'em up, chomp, chomp.

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Monday, January 2, 2006 6:32 AM

ETHAN


Quote:

Originally posted by Yojimbo:


I CANT FIND ANY USEFULL INFORMATION IN THIS NEGATIVE THREAD..THE TITLE ALONE IS TROLL COUNTRY WORTHY..PLEASE PUT IT TO DEATH QUICKLY..


IT DOES HAVE SOME FUZZY MATH,HEARSAY,AND SOME BLIND SPECULATION TO BE POSITIVE








On the contrary I think this thread has generated constructive discussion/information and much that is in the positive vein.

Your 'see no evil' mentality isn't in the independent spirit me thinks. Communism much?

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Monday, January 2, 2006 6:44 AM

HARSHCRITIC


Quote:

Originally posted by ethan:
I like to be as positive as the next person about getting Serenity to profitability. But after talking to a friend in the film industry, I realized that may be far more difficult than I originally thought. Consider the following.

Serenity made about 35 million USD worldwide. Theaters keep roughly half the box office receipts. So that leaves about 17.5 mil for Universal.

DVD sales average 9 dollars in profit for the studios, but 20% of that profit is distributed to actors and film crew as royalties. Big name stars and directors sometimes leverage higher royalty rates but I don't think this is the case with Serenity. Rounding down, Universal will pocket 7 dollars for every DVD sold.

If Serenity cost 40 million to make (let's just assume marketing is included)then after it's theatrical run it was still 22.5 million USD in the red. At the rate of 7 bucks profit per Serenity DVD, roughly 3.3 million units will have to be sold before Universal breaks even on original production. We don't even know how much was spent on additional marketing for the DVD.

My friend conjectures Serenity will in the end need to earn at least 30 million in pure profits just to even trigger consideration for a sequel. That's another 4.4 million dvds.

All told, 7.7 million DVD's have to be sold for us to hope for a sequel. If Browncoat's ever needed to get the impossible done, now's the time...



All and all, your estimates seem a little high for a 50 million dollar movie. That means almost no movies are profitable, because although other movies make more money they tend to have a higher production and marketing budgets.

How can the movie theater get so much of the profit when they simply distribute the movie? They don't invest in the prodution of the film? The amount the actors and crew receive depends on their individual contract.

These calculations do not make sense to me from a business perspective. This means the studios make very little although they put up most of the money. The theaters make most of the profit, but invest very little. However, in the past few years many theater chains were close to bankruptcy.

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Monday, January 2, 2006 6:59 AM

ETHAN


Quote:

Originally posted by harshcritic:


All and all, your estimates seem a little high for a 50 million dollar movie. That means almost no movies are profitable, because although other movies make more money they tend to have a higher production and marketing budgets.

How can the movie theater get so much of the profit when they simply distribute the movie? They don't invest in the prodution of the film? The amount the actors and crew receive depends on their individual contract.

These calculations do not make sense to me from a business perspective. This means the studios make very little although they put up most of the money. The theaters make most of the profit, but invest very little. However, in the past few years many theater chains were close to bankruptcy.



To be honest a lot of these numbers seemed odd to me too harshcritic, but they are as they were when related to me from an industry source. This particular person isn't prone to hyperbole or speaking out of turn. But I'll throw what he says out to the firefly community as so much more cannon fodder. The theater's take does seem hard to swallow.

According to him, Spiderman didn't even make any money until hitting DVD sales.

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Monday, January 2, 2006 7:11 AM

CHRISPV


I'm not sure about the figures, I have no clue about how the breakdown of money in Hollywood works. But personally, I have a hard time imagining that the BDHs got that big a cut now that I think about it. High residuals are generally reserved for names, and the cast don't really qualify. At the very least, I figure that those numbers are probably a bit lower than those your source reported.

And I just can't picture Spider-Man not making money until DVD. According to rottentomatoes, it made about 400 million in the US. No studio would greenlight a half a million dollar budgeted film, especially a "comic book movie." Plus, you've got to take into account the foreign grosses.

Of course, that's an outsider talking. Your friend might be completely right, ethan.

Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal, Fox!

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