Republicans See Obamacare Issues as Key to 2014 by Jongsstraw

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Republicans See Obamacare Issues as Key to 2014

POSTED BY: JONGSSTRAW
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 28, 2013 02:59
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Monday, May 27, 2013 12:08 PM

"If Republicans were writing a movie script for next year's congressional elections, the working title might be "2014: Apocalypse of Obamacare."

The plot: The rollout of President Barack Obama's health care law turns into such a disaster that enraged voters rebuke him by rewarding the GOP with undisputed control of Congress.

But there's a risk for Republicans if they're wrong and the Affordable Care Act works reasonably well, particularly in states that have embraced it. Republicans might be seen as obstinately standing in the way of progress.

The law already has been a political prop in two election seasons, but next year will be different.

Voters will have a real program to judge, working or dysfunctional. Will affordable health care finally be a reality for millions of uninsured working people? Or will premiums skyrocket as the heavy hand of government upends already fragile insurance markets for small businesses and individuals?

"The end of this movie has not been written," said Robert Blendon, a Harvard professor who tracks public opinion on health care. He says next year's movie actually will be a documentary: what happens in states that fully put the law in place and those that resist — "a message of reality."

One of the most prominent doomsayers is Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who predicts "Obamacare" probably will be the biggest issue of 2014 and "an albatross around the neck of every Democrat who voted for it."

"This thing can't possibly work," says McConnell. "It will be a huge disaster in 2014."

Counting on that, House Republicans are busy framing an election narrative, voting to repeal the health law and trying to link it to the scandal over the Internal Revenue Service's targeting of tea party groups. It could help excite the conservative base.

But Democratic pollster Celinda Lake doubts reality will follow the GOP script. Next year, "we won't have to worry about the mythology laid out by the right wing about Obamacare: death panels and dramatic cuts to Medicare," she said.

Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., said uninsured people in her state will have over 200 coverage options to choose from. "We have been hearing the fear, but in states like mine, people are seeing the reality," she said.

In just about five months, people without access to coverage through their jobs can start shopping for subsidized private insurance in new state markets. The actual benefits begin Jan. 1. But because of continuing opposition to the law from many Republican governors and state legislators, the federal government will be running the insurance markets in more than half the states.

Another major element of the law, the expansion of Medicaid to serve more low-income people, also has run into problems. With many legislative sessions over or winding down, it looks like fewer than half the states may accept the expansion. That means millions of low-income people are likely to remain uninsured, at least initially.

Other early indicators of how well the health care rollout might fare are mixed.

In a dozen or so states that have started releasing details of their new insurance markets, there's robust insurer interest in participating, according to the market research firm Avalere Health. That's a good signal for competition.

There still are concerns about a spike in premiums for people who already buy their own coverage, particularly the young and healthy. That could happen for several reasons.

The health care law forbids insurers to deny coverage to sick people, and it limits what older adults can be charged. Also, the plans that will be offered next year are more comprehensive than many bare-bones policies currently available to individuals.

Another big source of angst is the Obama administration. The Health and Human Services Department will be running the program in half the country while trying to fight off attempts by congressional Republicans to starve it financially. Unusual for a social program, the administration is largely operating behind a veil of secrecy.

Will Obama's underlings turn out to be the Keystone Kops of health care?

Frustration that he and his constituents couldn't get basic information from the administration led one of the authors of the law, Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., to warn recently that he sees "a huge train wreck coming down."

Republicans loved it. Lost in the uproar was the fact that Baucus was referring to potential problems with implementation. He stills thinks the health care law itself is a good thing.

The administration official running the rollout, Gary Cohen, told Congress this past that he didn't agree with the senator's statement. "We are very much on schedule," Cohen said.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff says he's skeptical of what he hears from the administration as well as from his own party. McInturff, who has made polling on health care his specialty, says the launch of any national program is bound to have problems. President George W. Bush's Medicare prescription benefit went through several weeks of chaos before things got smoothed out.

"Life experience says to me there is not going to be some simple, clear narrative that is sitting here today," McInturff said."
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Health-Care-Politics/2013/05/27/id/50
6522

Everyone has already seen their health coverage premiums go up, but you can't give up hope that all will be swell someday.

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Monday, May 27, 2013 12:31 PM

HKCAVALIER

Laughable.

HKCavalier

Hey, hey, hey, don't be mean. We don't have to be mean, because, remember, no matter where you go, there you are.

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Monday, May 27, 2013 12:58 PM

JONGSSTRAW

Quote:
Originally posted by HKCavalier:

Laughable.

Si Canio.

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Monday, May 27, 2013 4:57 PM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

Line 'em up & bring 'em on. We libs hope 435 Republican candidates for the House and 35 Repub candidates for the Senate run on no other platform but " I'm gonna repeal Obamacare". The polls, yepper, those same polls that oversampled Dems in 2013, suggest that they'll get handed their hats.

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Monday, May 27, 2013 5:07 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)

Quote:
Posted by Jongsie:

Everyone has already seen their health coverage premiums go up, but you can't give up hope that all will be swell someday.

Define "everyone"; my premiums have been falling since Obamacare passed, and have continued to fall.

Maybe "everyone" you know is full of shit.

Quote:
Posted by HKC:

Laughable.

More laughable than you know:

Unexpected Health Insurance Rate Shock-California Obamacare Insurance Exchange Announces Premium Rates
- from Forbes Magazine

Quote:
Every now and again, a political pundit is required to stand up and admit to the world that he or she got it wrong.

For me, this would be one of those moments.

For quite some time, I have been predicting that Obamacare would likely mean higher insurance rates in the individual market for the “young immortals” and others under the age of 40. At the same time, my expectation was that those who fall into the older age ranges would benefit greatly as their premium charges would be lowered thanks to the Affordable Care Act.

It is increasingly clear that I had it wrong.

Yesterday, Covered California—the name given to the healthcare exchange created pursuant to the Affordable Care Act that will serve the largest population of insured citizens in the nation—released the premium rates submitted by participating health insurance companies for the three health insurance program categories (bronze, silver and gold) established by the Affordable Care Act, along with the catastrophic policy created for and available to those under the age of 30.

Upon reviewing the data, I was indeed shocked by the proposed premium rates—but not in the way you might expect. The jolt that I was experiencing was not the result of the predicted out-of-control premium costs but the shock of rates far lower than what I expected—even at the lowest end of the age scale.

So, why the all too popular narrative that Obamacare would mean unaffordable healthcare premium costs for so many Americans?

Setting aside the never-ending nonsense peddled by the opponents of healthcare reform, everyone from the Congressional Budget Office to numerous private actuaries have warned that premium shock could be expected to set in once the public began to see the reality of what Obamacare would mean to their pocketbooks. And yet, the only real jolt to the system being felt by these public and private prognosticators today is utter amazement over just how reasonable the California prices have turned out to be.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2013/05/24/unexpected-health-ins
urance-rate-shock-california-obamacare-insurance-exchange-announces-premium-rates/

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero

"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012

Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"

Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."

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Tuesday, May 28, 2013 2:59 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Many thanx for that Mike, it was news to me. My fear is it will be the opposite for insurance companies that are home based in red states, and of course the Medicaid thing is hovering out there, thanx to the recalcitrance of those in power in red states.

Doesn't help US, we're wrestling with Medicare supplemental coverage bullshit (and HOW "bullshit" some of it is absolutely blows my mind!), but I'm glad for those it will affect.

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