REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Anyone wanna take bets on Wisconsin recalls?

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 10, 2011 08:21
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Tuesday, August 9, 2011 12:45 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


I can't even find info on exit polls, so won't know until tomorrow (or late tonight, our time). Six Republicans up for recall; any takers on how many will win/lose? This is the most recent info I can find:
Quote:

Joe Heim, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-LaCrosse, said Democrats appear to have more enthusiasm but it's a tossup at this point.

"It looks right now like two seats are leaning Democratic and two are in the tossup category," he said. "Two of the races were leaning Republican up until this week, which seems to be picking up a trend that the Democrats may do better than expected." More at http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wisconsin-recall-vote-embolden-dems-lim
it-gop-cost/story?id=14256641


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Tuesday, August 9, 2011 12:53 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Oh, yeah...Walker is missing no bets. Check this out:
Quote:

The Government Accounting Board (GAB), apparently changing their regulations as they go along, has effectively shut down citizen-run exit polls in today’s Democratic Primary Recall Election in Wisconsin.

Despite having the GAB Regulations (§§5.35 (5), 7.37 (2) ) in hand plus a letter from Kevin Kennedy, head of the GAB, both clearly allowing exit polling, the GAB today, through GAB member David Buerger, has said that the group is “electioneering” because candidates names appear on the polling “ballot.” He further dictated that no voter would be allowed to touch an exit poll ballot, that pollsters can only verbally ask the voters their responses. This despite the fact that Edison-Mitofsky, the polling company commissioned by the Media Consortium to conduct Exit Polling nationally over the last many years, uses written polling ballots that the voters fill in themselves.

The polls were being run by concerned Wisconsin citizens volunteering under the guidance of Election Defense Alliance and Protect California Ballots, two non-partisan organizations with the mission of restoring transparency to our elections. Both organizations have run non-partisan exit polls many times in the past in close to a dozen states. Neither group has ever been harassed in such a way before.

“This is reasoning beyond specious”, said Jonathan Simon, Director of Election Defense Alliance. “Exit polling in this country has been going on for decades. To call it ‘electioneering’ simply because candidates names appear on the poll ballot, when all names appear without any advocacy involved, is absurd. This is concealment in OUR elections. Public participation is being forbidden!”

“If exit polling has now conveniently been relabeled as ‘electioneering’ this spells the end of exit polling in America and one of the last few mechanisms for evaluating the legitimacy of official vote counts,” added Sally Castleman, National Chairperson of Election Defense Alliance.

“The implications for upcoming primary and general recall elections are of the utmost importance” said Simon. “This encroachment on the public right of observation and participation must be challenged forcefully and immediately.”

“The irony of ‘Government Accountability’ is beyond belief,” Simon added.

Voters leaving the polling station in Menominee Falls were reporting to the pollsters that they were not being allowed to vote without photo ID. When one of the volunteers tried to explain that the law says a photo ID is REQUESTED but not REQUIRED for this election, the Village Clerk reprimanded her for “interfering.”

In another related story, robo-calls, reportedly coming from Virginia, are being made to Democrats throughout the primary districts today telling them not to vote today because an absentee ballot is in the mail. http://markcrispinmiller.com/2011/07/wisconsin-gab-shuts-down-citizen-
exit-polls-in-todays-recall-elections/
WONDER I can't get any info on exit polls!


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Tuesday, August 9, 2011 4:22 PM

FREMDFIRMA



Well, given the attempts to suppress exit polling, this one's gonna be a tough call, especially since there's quite a bit of shenanigans going on, primarily but not exclusively restricted to the Republicans, business as usual that - and someone from another organisation is monitoring the tabulators in realtime looking for anomolies, especially given the extensive criminal history of Nickolaus regarding that kind of thing.

Numbers on the table are hovering around 70-20-5, 70% chance of nailing down three, 20% outside chance of four depending on how a couple districts flip, and a 5% hail mary chance of a clean sweep.
Those odds are of course, assuming a clean balloting and no funny business with the counting, which is an assumption I am not willing to make given the mounting evidence of shenanigans here and in the involvement of Nickolaus anywhere in the counting.

ETA: Some seriously WTF numbers are coming out of a couple of these, mind you.

-F

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Tuesday, August 9, 2011 4:42 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


And if you can stop any exit polling, then there's really no reason in the world why you couldn't just write down whatever you SAY the numbers are, and keep your toadies in power regardless of what the people have to say about it.

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Tuesday, August 9, 2011 7:06 PM

FREMDFIRMA



Damned if I didn't call it - my "bet" (and yes, I bet real money on this) was two solid and one disputed, with tampering by Nicholaus involved.

I can practically hear the jingle of the payout now.
Quote:

"The race to determine control of the Wisconsin Senate has fallen in the hands of the Waukesha County clerk, who has already distinguished herself as incompetent, if not worse. She is once more tampering with the results of a consequential election and in the next hours we will determine our next course of action. For now, Wisconsin should know that a dark cloud hangs over these important results."

http://publius9.blogspot.com/2011/08/recall-elections-waukesha-county_
09.html


And
Quote:

Recall Elections: Waukesha County Suspiciously Witholding Election Results
Ed Schultz on MSNBC is reporting that Waukesha County has told reporters that they are withholding their election results until tomorrow. Waukesha County is part of the heated district race between Sandy Pasch and Alberta Darling. John Nichols told Ed that there is no reason for such a delay and that Waukesha County should be able to report as quickly as everyone else.

You may remember Waukesha County and Kathy Nicholaus who just happened to lose and then later find enough votes to give the election to the Republican-backed David Prosser in the April Wisconsin Supreme Court race. This BS was supposed to be resolved after that election, but apparently Wisconsin and the GAB are happy to have a flaky and untrustworthy County Clerk in Kathy Nicholaus. State Senator Jon Erpenbach told Rachel Maddow tonight that "Waukesha County should have been one of the first counties reporting" and is now an issue.

Ed said that several sources have told him this may lead to an investigation to protect the integrity of our elections, and I hope it does. Ed also reported that Democrat Chair Mike Tate has issued a statement saying that Kathy Nicholaus "is tampering with our elections," and they will plan their response in the next hour.


http://publius9.blogspot.com/2011/08/recall-elections-waukesha-county.
html


Again, I call shenanigans, in fact I called em in advance, in detail, yes ?

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Wednesday, August 10, 2011 5:13 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Jezus, what a mess! Why does she still have her job, I wonder? When I went to bed, two looked good and the third looked like a no-go...I'm assuming that's Waukesha. I'll continue to hope they can overcome whatever may or may not have been done there.

I guess just goes to prove that the people of Wisconsin, once prodded into voting, are divided on how they feel about all this; that money can buy elections and this is a precursor to what Citizens United will do in 2012; and that fucking around with ballots and committing fraud can tip the balance. Shit.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Wednesday, August 10, 2011 6:00 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Worse is how them fuckin Pansy-ass Dems turn around and all-of-the-sudden-real-damn-conveniently decided "not to pursue the matter of irregularities", despite being so completely rabid about it last night, and despite them being so bloody OBVIOUS a third-grader woulda called bullshit.

Money changed hands, you know it, I know it, just a matter of proving it.

This bodes ill for the notion of the act of installing Democrats changing a damn thing when they're so easily bought off and essentially gutless that they can't even manage to stand their ground when it's all but a freakin gimme, doesn't it ?
But then, I pointed THAT out when voters broke the Republican majority in Congress and actually expected those blueball bitches to carry it through and get us out of the middle east.
Course, no one wants to talk about that with me, and golly gee I wonder why.

If they ain't got the guts to stand and fight on this, and a combination of their own native cowardice and a little bribery makes em fold so easy, do you REALLY think they're gonna stand up to Walker and his thugs anyway ?
*shaking head*

Of course, just cause the Dems ain't got the chops to investigate those irregularities doesn't mean nobody does - especially if Bev gets involved cause she's pretty good at that sorta thing... and if she doesn't, on such a critical issue, we're gonna have a *talk* about resting on one's laurels when the job ain't done, cause she's been sitting around just marking time for a little too long anyhows.

Cause what bothers ME is, that if it becomes obvious what a sham the voting process is, how futile it is, the population is gonna start thinkin about other methods of making those changes...
And London by comparison will look like a wet firecracker.

-Frem
PS. I got paid, btw - kaaa-CHING, and why are people fool enough to bet against me ?
Cause it's a blind bet, you don't know WHO is putting money on stuff, otherwise not a lot of em would, considering my picks are so reliable I use this as secondary income.

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Wednesday, August 10, 2011 6:34 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Sounds like there needs to be a federal investigation.

Maybe we can convince Glenn Beck that the New Black Panthers were behind the voting irregularities; then he'd be sure to ask for an investigation!

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Wednesday, August 10, 2011 8:21 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


I agree, Frem, glad SOMEOBODY benefitted from this farce. And you weren't the only one who called it (and called it in even more detail) the day before the election:
Quote:

The Democrats need to win 3 of 6 GOP seats in the recall elections to gain control of the Wisconsin senate. Assuming the Wisconsin 2008 presidential election....

1) recorded vote shares and election fraud (expected) in the recall elections, the Democrats will win 1 or 2 GOP seats.

2) recorded vote shares and zero election fraud in the recalls, the Democrats will likely win 3 GOP seats.

3) True Vote shares and zero fraud in the recalls, the Democrats would likely win 6 GOP seats. http://www.buzzflash.net/story.php?id=1713869 much says it all.

As to the Dems pulling back; hey, we all know Democratic politicians are total wooses...if they weren't, we wouldn't be in the state we are NOW, would we?


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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