REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Trump's Budget

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, November 7, 2022 12:17
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Friday, October 16, 2020 3:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for September 2020, released 4 days late today.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Monday, November 2, 2020 5:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21157.6 20996.6

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,637.5 FY2020 Q3

328.3 FY2014 Q3
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Tuesday, November 3, 2020 2:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


That Quarterly GDP increase is the largest in history, th only one over $330 Billion, let alone over $1.6 Trillion.

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Friday, November 13, 2020 3:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for October 2020.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238
Out21 $522
S/D21 -284

Rev21 $238
Out21 $522
S/D21 -284
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Saturday, November 28, 2020 1:03 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with data from 25 Nov.

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21157.1 20996.1

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,637.0 FY2020 Q3

328.3 FY2014 Q3
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Thursday, December 10, 2020 3:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for November 2020.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220
Out21 $522 $365
S/D21 -284 -145

Rev21 $238 $457
Out21 $522 $887
S/D21 -284 -429
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Saturday, December 26, 2020 12:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with data from 22 Dec.

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 2099

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

328.3 FY2014 Q3
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Wednesday, March 3, 2021 3:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for January 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Wednesday, March 3, 2021 3:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with data from 25 Feb..

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 2099
21 21487.9

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

328.3 FY2014 Q3
320.7 FY2018 Q1
317.6 FY2020 Q4
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Friday, March 26, 2021 2:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for February 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Friday, March 26, 2021 2:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with data from 25 Mar.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 2099
21 21494.7

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

328.3 FY2014 Q3
324.4 FY2020 Q4
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Monday, April 12, 2021 3:43 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for March 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr

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Thursday, April 29, 2021 7:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




GDP.

Updated with data from 25 Mar.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.8 22049.0

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

554.2 FY2021 Q2

328.3 FY2014 Q3
324.5 FY2021 Q1
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

554.2 FY2021 Q2

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.
For April 2021, the FY21 Q2 figure returns us to a new high, now that Libtard Lockdowns have suddenly eased, mysteriously after the Libtard Leader Puppet President occupied the White House basement. The Trump economy has finally been released, unshackled. At least the Libtard Lockdowns were able to stifle, strangle the economy until Libtards could steal the election.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2021 5:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for March 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.

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Thursday, May 27, 2021 7:16 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with data from 25 Mar.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.8 22061.1

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

566.3 FY2021 Q2

328.3 FY2014 Q3
324.5 FY2021 Q1
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

566.3 FY2021 Q2

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.
For April 2021, the FY21 Q2 figure returns us to a new high, now that Libtard Lockdowns have suddenly eased, mysteriously after the Libtard Leader Puppet President occupied the White House basement. The Trump economy has finally been released, unshackled. At least the Libtard Lockdowns were able to stifle, strangle the economy until Libtards could steal the election.

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Sunday, May 30, 2021 2:12 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I guess Obama announced his new $6 Trillion budget on Friday, thru his Puppet President-in-hiding Biden.


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Thursday, June 10, 2021 3:23 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for May 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.

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Thursday, June 24, 2021 5:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with data from today.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22061.5

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

566.8 FY2021 Q2

328.3 FY2014 Q3
324.4 FY2021 Q1
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

566.8 FY2021 Q2

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.
For April 2021, the FY21 Q2 figure returns us to a new high, now that Libtard Lockdowns have suddenly eased, mysteriously after the Libtard Leader Puppet President occupied the White House basement. The Trump economy has finally been released, unshackled. At least the Libtard Lockdowns were able to stifle, strangle the economy until Libtards could steal the election.

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Friday, July 16, 2021 4:50 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for June 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.

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Sunday, August 1, 2021 9:02 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




GDP.

Updated with data from today.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

684.4 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2

328.3 FY2014 Q3
324.4 FY2021 Q1
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,219.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.
For April 2021, the FY21 Q2 figure returns us to a new high, now that Libtard Lockdowns have suddenly eased, mysteriously after the Libtard Leader Puppet President occupied the White House basement. The Trump economy has finally been released, unshackled. At least the Libtard Lockdowns were able to stifle, strangle the economy until Libtards could steal the election.
For July 2021, I'll need to correct all of the figures due to revisions of data, since the current numbers are not adding up.

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Friday, August 20, 2021 5:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for July 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.

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Friday, August 20, 2021 9:48 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Well, well, well.
You can color me shocked, just shocked I say - absolutely shocked and surprised and amazed, I tell you, that the very first attempt that the Lord Darth Obiden minions, in the most transparent Administration of history, have taken to reveal honestly and openly (like all prior Admins) the newly cyphered Gross Domestic Product historical and current figures - they have actually obfuscated all data, like how their Libtard Maths were cyphered.
For those not following, this revision is apparently performed at the end of every July. But I just got around to looking for it.
I am just absolutely shocked, I say.

I will see what data I can glean, as of 20 Aug 21.



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2020.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3
20 21747.4 000000019477.4 21138.6
21 21477.6 22038.2 22722.6

Now, the Obiden minions do post some random data, but with no information or reference data to know what they mean - maybe at the end of September.
2020 - 20893.7, 2019 - 21372.6, 2018 - 20527.2

Yep, that is the prized trove of data that Lord Darth Obiden has actually bequeathed to us unwashed masses.




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,650.2 FY2020 Q3

684.4 FY2021 Q4
560.6 FY2021 Q2


324.4 FY2021 Q1
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
232.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,219.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1

905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.

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Saturday, August 21, 2021 4:12 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Well, well, well.
You can color me shocked, just shocked I say - absolutely shocked and surprised and amazed, I tell you, that the very first attempt that the Lord Darth Obiden minions, in the most transparent Administration of history, have taken to reveal honestly and openly (like all prior Admins) the newly cyphered Gross Domestic Product historical and current figures - they have actually obfuscated all data, like how their Libtard Maths were cyphered.
For those not following, this revision is apparently performed at the end of every July. But I just got around to looking for it.
I am just absolutely shocked, I say.

I will see what data I can glean, as of 20 Aug 21.



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2020.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 14753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 00000.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22722.6 00000.0





This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.







So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.



Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

0000000000000000000000000 1,661.2 FY2020 Q4
1,650.2 FY2020 Q3 00000000000 693.2 FY2021 Q3
566.8 FY2021 Q2 000000000000 560.6 FY2021 Q2
328.3 FY2014 Q3 000000000000 348.8 FY2018 Q3
324.4 FY2021 Q1 000000000000 339.0 FY2021 Q1
320.7 FY2018 Q1 000000000000 324.3 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3 000000000000 318.4 FY2014 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2 000000000000 287.7 FY2019 Q3
288.8 FY2014 Q4 000000000000 280.5 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2 000000000000 275.0 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4 000000000000 260.7 FY2018 Q2
244.8 FY2000 Q3 000000000000 245.5 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2 000000000000 243.9 FY2003 Q4
238.1 FY2017 Q4 000000000000 240.1 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1 000000000000 235.8 FY2017 Q4
232.9 FY2005 Q4 000000000000 226.5 FY2012 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q3 000000000000 222.0 FY2014 Q1
220.2 FY2015 Q3 000000000000 221.8 FY2005 Q1
00000000000000000000000000 219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020: 000 Using revised data of July 2021:

566.8 FY2021 Q2 00000000000000 560.6 FY2021 Q2
304.2 FY2018 Q2 00000000000000 275.0 FY2006 Q2
271.6 FY2006 Q2 00000000000000 260.7 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2 00000000000000 240.1 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2 00000000000000 226.5 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2 00000000000000 208.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2 00000000000000 188.3 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2 00000000000000 185.9 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2 00000000000000 176.7 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2 00000000000000 151.2 FY2004 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2 00000000000000

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.



Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

000000000000000000000000000000 3,254.0 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3
1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 000000000 1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4 0000000000000 1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4
1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 00000000000 989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1 000000000000 930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1 000000000000 915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2 000000000000 881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2 000000000000 857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4 0000000000000000 847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2 000000000000 845.9 FY2019Q1-4
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2 000000000000 843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3 000000000000 837.2 FY2005Q1-4
839.6 FY2005Q1-4 0000000000000000 832.1 FY2014Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1 000000000000 831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1 000000000000 828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3 000000000000 809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
797.6 FY2019Q1-4 0000000000000000 800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3 000000000000 797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
795.9 FY2017Q1-4 0000000000000000 796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3 000000000000 783.2 FY2017Q1-4
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3 000000000000 763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3 000000000000 755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2 000000000000 749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1 000000000000 738.7 FY2004Q1-4
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2 000000000000 731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
736.0 FY2004Q1-4 0000000000000000 728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2 000000000000 727.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.6 FY2006Q1-4 0000000000000000 719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1 000000000000 717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3 000000000000 715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1 000000000000 712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
0000000000000000009099999900000 711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
0000000000000000000000000000000 710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 000000000000 635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1
- for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 0000000000000000 468.5 FY2016Q1-4
- for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.




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Friday, August 27, 2021 5:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


New report came out yesterday, 2nd estimate of CY Q2. Increase of 693.2 and Q1 is still 560.6
I did get the table data set so far, but still working on the gap, span, highlight data.


Well, well, well.
You can color me shocked, just shocked I say - absolutely shocked and surprised and amazed, I tell you, that the very first attempt that the Lord Darth Obiden minions, in the most transparent Administration of history, have taken to reveal honestly and openly (like all prior Admins) the newly cyphered Gross Domestic Product historical and current figures - they have actually obfuscated all data, like how their Libtard Maths were cyphered.
For those not following, this revision is apparently performed at the end of every July. But I just got around to looking for it.
I am just absolutely shocked, I say.

I will see what data I can glean, as of 20 Aug 21.



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2020.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 00000.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22731.4 00000.0




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

693.2 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,254.0 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.

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Monday, August 30, 2021 5:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Alrighty then. In the 21 Aug post, I finally posted side by side comparisons of the interval data, the best-of lists. Left side is data as of June 2021, and right is data as of end of July 2021.

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Tuesday, September 14, 2021 7:56 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for August 2021.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.

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Thursday, September 30, 2021 5:10 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



New report came out today, 3rd estimate of CY Q2. Increase of 702.8 and Q1 is still 560.6
I did get the table data set so far, but still working on the gap, span, highlight data.


Well, well, well.
You can color me shocked, just shocked I say - absolutely shocked and surprised and amazed, I tell you, that the very first attempt that the Lord Darth Obiden minions, in the most transparent Administration of history, have taken to reveal honestly and openly (like all prior Admins) the newly cyphered Gross Domestic Product historical and current figures - they have actually obfuscated all data, like how their Libtard Maths were cyphered.
For those not following, this revision is apparently performed at the end of every July. But I just got around to looking for it.
I am just absolutely shocked, I say.

I will see what data I can glean, as of 20 Aug 21.



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2020.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 00000.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 00000.0




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.

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Wednesday, October 13, 2021 7:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Today would be the 8th business day of the month, but no Treasury Statement was released today.

"The release date for the September 2021 Statement is subject
to completion of year-end reporting requirements."

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Sunday, October 24, 2021 3:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for September 2021, which was finally released on Friday 22 October.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.

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Friday, October 29, 2021 4:48 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



New report came out yesterday, Advance estimate of CY Q3. Increase of 432.5 and Q2 is still 702.8
I did get the table data set so far, but still working on the gap, span, highlight data.


I will see what data I can glean, as of 20 Aug 21.



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2020.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23173.5 22357.6 00000.0




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
432.5 FY2021 Q4

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,034.9 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.

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Wednesday, November 10, 2021 11:10 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for October 2021, released today.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284
Out22 $449
S/D22 -165

Rev22 $284
Out22 $449
S/D22 -165
Projt
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.

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Wednesday, November 24, 2021 8:15 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



New report came out today, 2nd estimate of CY Q3. Increase of 446.0 and Q2 is still 702.8
I did get the table data set so far, but still working on the gap, span, highlight data.


I will see what data I can glean, as of 20 Aug 21.



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2020.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23187.0 2235 00000.0




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
446.0 FY2021 Q4

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,048.4 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.

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Wednesday, November 24, 2021 9:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You should use archive.today and save pages that you think are important.

Don't trust archive.org (aka the WaybackMachine). They are run by Leftists and will delete anything that isn't part of the narrative.

--------------------------------------------------

Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."

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Saturday, December 11, 2021 4:37 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for November 2021, released yeasterday.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284 $281
Out22 $449 $473
S/D22 -165 -192

Rev22 $284 $565
Out22 $449 $922
S/D22 -165 -356
Projt 1837 1837
%Pjt1
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.

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Thursday, December 23, 2021 2:27 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



New report came out today, 3rd estimate of CY Q3. Increase of 461.3 and Q2 is still 702.8
I did get the table data set so far, but still working on the gap, span, highlight data.


I will see what data I can glean, as of 20 Aug 21.



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2020.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23202.3 2235 00000.0




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
461.3 FY2021 Q4

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,063.7 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.

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Thursday, December 23, 2021 10:09 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.

Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For the record: JewelStaiteFan is full of bullshit. The GDP, adjusted for inflation, doesn't show Trump as being extraordinary. Trump's time was just more of the same, until his last year, when the GDP went horribly wrong, as the GDP did in the last year of Bush. I'm sure there is a connection between governing idiotically and crashing the economy, but idiots see no connections. A Republican President is like a drunken idiot who crashes his car into a telephone pole then tells the police and news reporters that it is all the fault of the tow truck driver, the Democratic President, who is towing away the wreck and cleaning up the broken glass. Blame the telephone pole for being where a Republican can hit it with a car!

Real gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Always chart from 2000-01-01 to the last value available.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=K9OH


Same chart as above but the Units are: Change from Year Ago, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars,
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=K9PN


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, January 13, 2022 2:49 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for November 2021, released yeasterday.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284 $281 $487
Out22 $449 $473 $508
S/D22 -165 -192 -$21

Rev22 $284 $565 1052
Out22 $449 $922 1430
S/D22 -165 -356 -378
Projt 1837 1837
%Pjt1
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.

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Thursday, January 13, 2022 8:50 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Idiot Second seems to forget that the Democrats went nuclear and unleashed a virus with China that saw most of the world lock down in 2020 just to ensure that Trump wouldn't be reelected because they were being destroyed in every metric despite 4 years of anti-Trump news coverage.

--------------------------------------------------

Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."

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Thursday, January 27, 2022 11:06 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with most recent data, from last year, July 2021.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23202.3 2235 00000.0
22 23992.4




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

790.1 FY2022 Q1
702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
461.3 FY2021 Q4

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,514.8 FY2021Q2 - 22Q1

2,063.7 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.
For Jan 2022: the bar graph in the report looks really wonky compared to the actual numbers. Specifically for CY2021 Q3, but maybe for the last 5 Quarters.

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Saturday, February 12, 2022 2:24 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for January 2022, released Wednesday.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284 $281 $487 $465
Out22 $449 $473 $508 $346
S/D22 -165 -192 -$21 $119

Rev22 $284 $565 1052 1517
Out22 $449 $922 1430 1776
S/D22 -165 -356 -378 -259
Projt 1837 1837
%Pjt1
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.
For Jan 2022: first monthly surplus since Sept 2019, under Trump. But I haven't heard Lord Darth Obiden bragging about it in the media. Maybe because it is still under Trump's Budget.

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Saturday, February 26, 2022 4:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.
Updated from Thursday, 24 Feb 2022.

Updated with most recent revision data, from last year, July 2021.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23202.3 2235 00000.0
22 24008.5




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

806.2 FY2022 Q1
702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
461.3 FY2021 Q4

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,530.9 FY2021Q2 - 22Q1

2,063.7 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.
For Jan 2022: the bar graph in the report looks really wonky compared to the actual numbers. Specifically for CY2021 Q3 (FY Q4), but maybe for the last 5 Quarters.

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Sunday, March 13, 2022 11:18 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for January 2022, released Wednesday.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284 $281 $487 $465 $290
Out22 $449 $473 $508 $346 $506
S/D22 -165 -192 -$21 $119 -217

Rev22 $284 $565 1052 1517 1807
Out22 $449 $922 1430 1776 2282
S/D22 -165 -356 -378 -259 -476
Projt 1837 1837
%Pjt1
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.
ETA:
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2019: $134 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2020: $92 Billion, amidst Libtard Lockdowns.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.
For Jan 2022: first monthly surplus since Sept 2019, under Trump. But I haven't heard Lord Darth Obiden bragging about it in the media. Maybe because it is still under Trump's Budget.

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Wednesday, March 30, 2022 10:11 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.
Updated from today.

Updated with most recent revision data, from last year, July 2021.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23202.3 2235 00000.0
22 24002.8




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

800.5 FY2022 Q1
702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
461.3 FY2021 Q4

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,525.2 FY2021Q2 - 22Q1

2,063.7 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.
For Jan 2022: the bar graph in the report looks really wonky compared to the actual numbers. Specifically for CY2021 Q3 (FY Q4), but maybe for the last 5 Quarters.

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Wednesday, March 30, 2022 1:33 PM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


GDP Growth by President

How Every President Since Hoover Has Affected the Economy

https://www.thebalance.com/gdp-growth-by-president-highs-lows-averages
-4801102



Donald Trump (2017–2020)
Before the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, President Donald Trump had no recessions and no new wars during his term in office. Nevertheless, he signed legislation that increased spending and cut taxes. The Fed responded to those expansionary fiscal policies by raising interest rates.

Trump advocated protectionism. He withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiated NAFTA, and launched a trade war with China and other trading partners.

In March 2020, Trump declared a state of emergency as the coronavirus pandemic broke out in the United States. Nonessential businesses closed, and Americans sheltered in place. Stimulus measures, such as the $2 trillion CARES Act, were not enough to keep the economy afloat. The GDP averaged 0.325% growth per quarter.



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Thursday, April 14, 2022 10:59 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for January 2022, released Wednesday.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284 $281 $487 $465 $290 $315
Out22 $449 $473 $508 $346 $506 $508
S/D22 -165 -192 -$21 $119 -217 -193

Rev22 $284 $565 1052 1517 1807 2122
Out22 $449 $922 1430 1776 2282 2790
S/D22 -165 -356 -378 -259 -476 -668
Projt 1837 1837
%Pjt1
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.
ETA:
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2019: $134 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2020: $92 Billion, amidst Libtard Lockdowns.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.
For Jan 2022: first monthly surplus since Sept 2019, under Trump. But I haven't heard Lord Darth Obiden bragging about it in the media. Maybe because it is still under Trump's Budget.

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Thursday, April 28, 2022 11:00 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.
Updated from today.

Updated with most recent revision data, from last year, July 2021.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23202.3 2235 00000.0
22 24002.8 24382.7




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

800.5 FY2022 Q1
702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
461.3 FY2021 Q4

379.9 FY2022 Q2

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

379.9 FY2022 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,525.2 FY2021Q2 - 22Q1

2,344.5 FY2021Q3 - 22Q2

2,063.7 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.
For Jan 2022: the bar graph in the report looks really wonky compared to the actual numbers. Specifically for CY2021 Q3 (FY Q4), but maybe for the last 5 Quarters.
Fake News is reporting today (Apr 2022) that GDP decreased by 1.4% - although it increased $379.9 B. I haven't looked into that yet.

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Wednesday, May 18, 2022 7:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for April 2022.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284 $281 $487 $465 $290 $315 $864
Out22 $449 $473 $508 $346 $506 $508 $555
S/D22 -165 -192 -$21 $119 -217 -193 +308

Rev22 $284 $565 1052 1517 1807 2122 2986
Out22 $449 $922 1430 1776 2282 2790 3346
S/D22 -165 -356 -378 -259 -476 -668 -360
Projt 1837 1837
%Pjt1
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.
ETA:
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2019: $134 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2020: $92 Billion, amidst Libtard Lockdowns.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.
For Jan 2022: first monthly surplus since Sept 2019, under Trump. But I haven't heard Lord Darth Obiden bragging about it in the media. Maybe because it is still under Trump's Budget.

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Saturday, May 28, 2022 12:00 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.
Updated from today.

Updated with most recent revision data, from last year, July 2021.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23202.3 2235 00000.0
22 24002.8 24384.3




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

800.5 FY2022 Q1
702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
461.3 FY2021 Q4

381.5 FY2022 Q2

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

381.5 FY2022 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,525.2 FY2021Q2 - 22Q1

2,346.1 FY2021Q3 - 22Q2

2,063.7 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
(July and August 2021) Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.
For Jan 2022: the bar graph in the report looks really wonky compared to the actual numbers. Specifically for CY2021 Q3 (FY Q4), but maybe for the last 5 Quarters.
Fake News is reporting today (Apr 2022) that GDP decreased by 1.4% - although it increased $379.9 B. I haven't looked into that yet.
For May 26, 2022 report says Real GDP decreased 1.5% but Current Dollar GDP increased $381.5 Billion.
For CY Q1, FY Q2.

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Thursday, June 30, 2022 7:45 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Looks like I missed this month's.



Monthly Revenues, Outlays.

Updated with the MTS for May 2022.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 $373
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 $498
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 -125

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 3420
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 6552
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 3132
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589


Rev21 $238 $220 $346 $385 $248 $268 $439 $464 $449 $262 $268 $460
Out21 $522 $365 $490 $547 $559 $927 $665 $596 $623 $564 $439 $521
S/D21 -284 -145 -144 -163 -311 -660 -226 -132 -174 -302 -171 -062

Rev21 $238 $457 $803 1188 1436 1704 2143 2607 3056 3318 3586 4046
Out21 $522 $887 1376 1924 2483 3410 4075 4671 5294 5858 6297 6818
S/D21 -284 -429 -573 -736 1047 1706 1932 2064 2238 2540 2711 2772
Projt 10
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


Rev22 $284 $281 $487 $465 $290 $315 $864 $389
Out22 $449 $473 $508 $346 $506 $508 $555 $455
S/D22 -165 -192 -$21 +119 -217 -193 +308 -$66

Rev22 $284 $565 1052 1517 1807 2122 2986 3375
Out22 $449 $922 1430 1776 2282 2790 3346 3801
S/D22 -165 -356 -378 -259 -476 -668 -360 -426
Projt 1837 1837
%Pjt1
%Pjt0
%Pjt9
%Pjt8
%Pjt7
%Pjt6


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.
ETA:
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2019: $134 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2018 -> 2020: $92 Billion, amidst Libtard Lockdowns.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Wow. For March 2021: Almost a $Trillion in one month. Quite impressive amount of Pork Waste Spending, even for a radical Libtard. Spending more than 3 times the revenue.
And only halfway through the Fiscal Year, Libtards have already spent more than twice the total Revenues so far. 12997, 15 Apr
For the April 2021 figures, the revenues seem to be very large Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts, and large Individual Income Tax Revenue and Corporate Income Tax Revenue. But not as much as 2020 (delayed until July), or 2019, or 2018, or 2017.
For June 2021, Individual Income Taxes are $265 Billion - more than the entire Revenue total for same month last year.
For August 2021 MTS - yes, that is close to a $3 Trillion deficit, for one year.

The revenues, which were budgeted by Trump, are record level, but Biden/Dems were able to still outspend it.
For Jan 2022: first monthly surplus since Sept 2019, under Trump. But I haven't heard Lord Darth Obiden bragging about it in the media. Maybe because it is still under Trump's Budget.

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Thursday, June 30, 2022 7:49 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




GDP.
Updated from yesterday.

Updated with most recent revision data, from last year, July 2021.

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&am
p;step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-202
0-advance-estimate
Table 7 in the Excel spreadsheet.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1 21170.3 20999.7 20936.6 21514.0 --514
21 21494.7 22055.3 22739.7



New altered data starting July 2021:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09900.2 10002.2 10247.7 10318.2
01 10435.7 10470.2 10599.0 10598.0
02 10660.5 10783.5 10887.5 10984.0
03 11061.4 11174.1 11312.8 11566.7
04 11772.2 11923.4 12112.8 12305.4
05 12527.2 12767.3 12922.7 13142.6
06 13324.2 13599.2 13753.4 13870.2
07 14039.6 14215.7 14402.1 14564.1
08 14715.1 14706.5 14865.7 14899.0
09 14608.2 14430.9 14381.2 14448.9
10 14651.2 14764.6 14980.2 15141.6
11 15309.5 15351.4 15557.5 15647.7
12 15842.3 16068.8 16207.1 16319.5
13 16420.4 16629.1 16699.6 16911.1
14 17133.1 17144.3 17462.7 17743.2
15 17852.5 17991.3 18193.7 18307.0
16 18332.1 18425.3 18611.6 18775.5
17 18968.0 19153.9 19322.9 19558.7 19250.9 19479.6
18 19883.0 20143.7 20492.5 20659.1 00000.0 20527.2
19 20813.3 21001.6 21289.3 21505.0 00000.0 21372.6
20 21694.5 21481.4 19477.4 21138.6 20948.0 20893.7
21 21477.6 22038.2 22741.0 23202.3 22364.8 22746.1 00000.0
22 24002.8 24386.7




This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

1,661.2 FY2020 Q4

800.5 FY2022 Q1
702.8 FY2021 Q3
560.6 FY2021 Q2
461.3 FY2021 Q4

383.9 FY2022 Q2

348.8 FY2018 Q3
339.0 FY2021 Q1
324.3 FY2018 Q1
318.4 FY2014 Q3

287.7 FY2019 Q3
280.5 FY2014 Q4
275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

245.5 FY2000 Q3
243.9 FY2003 Q4
240.1 FY2005 Q2
235.8 FY2017 Q4
226.5 FY2012 Q2
222.0 FY2014 Q1
221.8 FY2005 Q1
219.9 FY2005 Q4



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2021:

560.6 FY2021 Q2

383.9 FY2022 Q2

275.0 FY2006 Q2
260.7 FY2018 Q2

240.1 FY2005 Q2
226.5 FY2012 Q2
208.7 FY2013 Q2

188.3 FY2019 Q2
185.9 FY2017 Q2
176.7 FY2007 Q2
151.2 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

3,263.6 FY2020Q4 - 21Q3

2,525.2 FY2021Q2 - 22Q1

2,348.5 FY2021Q3 - 22Q2

2,063.7 FY2021Q1-4

1,169.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3
1,100.4 FY2018Q1-4

989.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2
930.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
915.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

881.2 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
857.9 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

847.0 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
845.9 FY2019Q1-4
843.9 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
837.2 FY2005Q1-4
832.1 FY2014Q1-4
831.9 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
828.7 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
809.9 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3
800.0 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

797.0 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
796.8 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
783.2 FY2017Q1-4
763.1 FY2913Q4 - 14Q3
755.0 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

749.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
738.7 FY2004Q1-4
731.0 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
728.6 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
727.6 FY2006Q1-4
719.4 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
717.4 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
715.4 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
712.7 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
711.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
710.8 FY03Q2 - 04Q1



635.9 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
468.5 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
(July and August 2021) Wow.
OK, so I have found the data, I think. But, they have revised the numbers since at least back to 1999. Changing even the Clinton figures.
This will likely take me a while to fill in this fake numbers.
Other revisions every year have been generally for the prior 5 year span, not the prior 22 year span.
For Jan 2022: the bar graph in the report looks really wonky compared to the actual numbers. Specifically for CY2021 Q3 (FY Q4), but maybe for the last 5 Quarters.
Fake News is reporting today (Apr 2022) that GDP decreased by 1.4% - although it increased $379.9 B. I haven't looked into that yet.
For May 26, 2022 report says Real GDP decreased 1.5% but Current Dollar GDP increased $381.5 Billion.
For CY Q1, FY Q2.
For June 29, 2022 report says Real GDP decreased 1.6% but Current Dollar GDP increased $383.9 Billion. For CY Q1, FY Q2.

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