REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Closer and closer to major-powers war

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Thursday, September 6, 2018 11:50
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Friday, January 2, 2015 3:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So sitting - peacefully - in a public space, where the public supposedly has the right to be - as an expression of the constitutional right to 'peaceably to assemble and to petition the government for a redress of grievances' is a crime that needs to be stopped using mace? Because, in your mind, the only other possibilities are batons or bullets?




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 4:51 PM

THGRRI


You post pictures of police brutality and the patch on the guys sleeve says world police. Who the fuck is that. You post brutality pictures from what appears to be third world countries as though there is no difference between them and America or the civilized countries of Europe. You post apocalyptic pictures as though they represent the same thing as the police dispersing protesters and rioters. Anything to make yourselves feel self-righteous.

You 1kiki and SIGNYM are two really sick women and you are fooling only the gullible.


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Friday, January 2, 2015 7:15 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


First picture: UC Davis cop sprayed non-violent, non-threatening, non-reacting students with pepper spray. Perhaps UC Davis is the third world?

I don't know about the second picture - but the third one - that's Ferguson. Is THAT the third world?

Then of course there's the infamous Abu Ghraib brutality. That WAS the third world - but then, it WAS our troops and contractors.






SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 7:21 PM

THGRRI


cites please or was it staged



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Friday, January 2, 2015 7:28 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


First of all - I didn't post the pictures. But if >> I <<, the NON-poster, could find this, so could you. And second of all - now that you have a topic, and locations, you could just as easily look it up yourself. Or not. And stay - and look like - the ignorant asshole you are.

Your choice.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 7:44 PM

THGRRI


You say you found it but I see no CITES.


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Friday, January 2, 2015 8:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Cites?

Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
Quote:

SIG

It's funny, but the only nation which seems to still be treating Ukraine (minus Crimea) as a single nation is Russia.



Wow, and I mean wow are you delusional.

SOCIOPATH; look it up, 1kiki has a link. The two of you can read it together








SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 8:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Cites?
Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
I've said all I need to.







SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 8:36 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Cites?
Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
By the way, your lack of reasoning power shows up with every post in your signature. Guns and bombs drove the British out of America and this country was built.







SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 8:36 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Cites?
Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
If you don't get that I am certainly right. You are not an American. You're an import and my bet is from Russia. GO HOME COMRADE







SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 8:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Cites? 'Cause yanno, this is an opinion piece.

Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
No SIDNYM, you are the one arguing against freedom. You either don't realize it or do not know what freedom means.

By Alan Cullison


Updated July 29, 2006 12:01 a.m. ET


MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law making slander of a public official a criminal offense, a move opposition and watchdog groups described as yet another blow in the Kremlin's unrelenting assault on beleaguered democratic institutions.

His approval of the measure on Friday is a fresh rebuke to Western leaders and civic groups who leaned on Mr. Putin at a Group of Eight conference in St. Petersburg this month to stop squeezing opposition parties and freedom of speech. Analysts say Mr. Putin's decision to sign the law is a harbinger for an even greater clampdown on Russian society as the government prepares for presidential elections in 2008.

"He is signing a law that erases all ability to criticize the authorities and to have any real discussion in the media," said Lilia Shevtsova, a political analyst at the Carnegie Foundation in Moscow. "The long-term trend is pretty clear: Russia is in the midst of an election campaign and the czar doesn't want any questions."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB115413548494821152








SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 8:40 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Cites? 'Cause yanno, this is yet ANOTHER opinion piece.

Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
Here is some more of what you call freedom SIGNYM.

Eyes on Ukraine, Putin Tightens Curbs on Protesters
Reuters
May. 06 2014 20:30
Last edited 20:30


While all eyes are turned to Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has quietly enacted laws which opponents say will strengthen his hand in a battle against dissent in Russia.


Putin signed laws on Monday envisaging tougher punishment for people involved in riots and imposing life sentences for various "terrorist" crimes. He also approved tighter controls on bloggers, some of whom have emerged as opposition leaders and have used the Internet to criticize Putin and arrange protests.

"All this tightening will be applied only for political ends," said Dmitry Gudkov, a member of parliament who helped organize rallies against Putin in several cities in the winter of 2011 to 2012.


The moves underline Kremlin concern that the unrest in Ukraine, where demonstrations caused the Moscow-backed president to , might encourage protests in Russia, even though the annexation of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine has helped push Putin's ratings to their highest level since late 2010.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/499659.html







SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 8:44 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


And you still didn't address this. When members of the public sit - peacefully - in a public space to peacefully assemble and petition the government - is it a crime that needs to be stopped with mace, or batons, or bullets?
Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
First picture: UC Davis cop sprayed non-violent, non-threatening, non-reacting students with pepper spray. Perhaps UC Davis is the third world?

I don't know about the second picture - but the third one - that's Ferguson. Is THAT the third world?

Then of course there's the infamous Abu Ghraib brutality. That WAS the third world - but then, it WAS our troops and contractors.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 11:31 PM

THGRRI




When you're done having a hissy fist I would appreciate those cites please.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 10:52 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Why are you asking KIKI for cites to one of my posts? Isn't that a little misdirected?

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 11:57 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Perfect example of how Signym has to create false equivalents to *try* make her point - and it's so f*cking obvious - clearly, she doesn't even care any more.


G, I take it you don't follow the USA news? Haven't seen anything of the widespread surveillance of the population by the NSA? Not read about the "free speech zones" set up so that people with an alternate POV can protest.... two miles way from anywhere? Not noticed the militarization of the police? Not read of the mass arrests of protesters because they were "blocking traffic" or "interfering with normal movement"? Nor the bill signed by Obama in May 2012 which would makes protest "near" Secret Service criminally illegal and punishable by up to 10 years in jail?

Quote:

For one thing, the law makes it easier for the government to criminalize protest. Period. It is a federal offense, punishable by up to 10 years in prison to protest anywhere the Secret Service might be guarding someone. For another, it’s almost impossible to predict what constitutes “disorderly or disruptive conduct” or what sorts of conduct authorities deem to “impede or disrupt the orderly conduct of Government business or official functions.”

The types of events and individuals warranting Secret Service protection have grown exponentially since the law was enacted in 1971. Today, any occasion that is officially defined as a National Special Security Event calls for Secret Service protection. NSSE’s can include basketball championships, concerts, and the Winter Olympics, which have nothing whatsoever to do with government business, official functions, or improving public grounds. Every Super Bowl since 9/11 has been declared an NSSE.

And that brings us to the real problem with the change to the old protest law. Instead of turning on a designated place, the protest ban turns on what persons and spaces are deemed to warrant Secret Service protection. It’s a perfect circle: The people who believe they are important enough to warrant protest can now shield themselves from protestors. No wonder the Occupy supporters are worried. In the spirit of “free speech zones,” this law creates another space in which protesters are free to be nowhere near the people they are protesting.


http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2012/03/
the_anti_protest_bill_signed_by_barack_obama_is_a_quiet_attack_on_free_speech_.html


Heck, G, that thing that THUGR mentioned .... arresting protesters blocking the normal movement of people... that was EXACTLY the reason that the Hong Kong government just gave for arresting the umbrella protesters. How is anything in the USA not like China or Russia, when it comes to protests? They're just not tolerated, no matter which country you're in. From my angle, it looks exactly the same.






--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 12:16 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

SIGNYM
Heck, G, that thing that THUGR mentioned .... arresting protesters blocking the normal movement of people... that was EXACTLY the reason that the Hong Kong government just gave for arresting the umbrella protesters. How is anything in the USA not like Russia, when it comes to protests? From my angle, it looks exactly the same.




SIGNYM, Hong Kong had an agreement with China for free and fair elections within Hong Kong that was broken. Those protesting were representing a form of revelation not just a simple protest. Because of your lack of being able to see the truth of things you can’t tell the difference between that and a protest in this country.

Here is an example of your hypocrisy that has not gone unnoticed by some of us. You alwasys take the side of the protesters against governments except in the case of the Ukraine. You called it a coup and illegal because it goes against the interests of Russia.

Still waiting for those cites 1kiki.


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Saturday, January 3, 2015 12:31 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Those protesting were representing a form of revelation not just a simple protest.
Huh??? Almost ALL protests are a form of revelation! They're used to bring attention to issues that aren't widely-known or widely-acknowledged. Oh and BTW- the people of Hong Kong understand what the agreement was between Hong Kong and China. They're not as stupid as you make them out. There are other underlying issues between Hong Kong and China- the first being a terrible housing shortage, the second that the Hong Kong wealthy are suddenly being displaced (in housing, education, markets etc) by the mainland wealthy, and the third being that Shanghai is anticipated to overtake Hong Kong as the financial center and the future of Hong Kong is looking less bright.

Quote:

You alwasys take the side of the protesters against governments except in the case of the Ukraine. You called it a coup and illegal because it goes against the interests of Russia.
I called it a coup because it WAS a coup. Once you use guns to oust a government .... and in this case, it was an elected government... THAT is the difference between a protest and a coup (or revolution, however you want to frame it). YOU'RE the one who is misrepresenting what happened. HINT: Maidan may have started as a "protest" but it ended as a "coup".

My god, THUGR, the fact that you can't see that fact makes me wonder about your state of mind. Yanno, just to be polite, and so I don't leave you hanging, I'm letting you know right now that I'm not going to be responding to most of your posts bc you're just not worth it.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 12:35 PM

THGRRI


You're playing semantics here SIGNYM in order to encompass all acts of protesting into a single category. This is a subjective way of addressing what I said; garbage.

Cites 1kiki

Bombs and guns build countries and helps keep hostile forces out.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 4:54 PM

THGRRI


You are sick of me SIGNYM because I can show what you post to be bullshit with a short and simple response. The secret is to skip past all the subjective bull you fill your posts with (mostly copied and pasted shit from propaganda and conspiracy sites) and go right to the point.

While I do not mind you not acknowledging my posts in the least, I will still be poking you on occasion because of the joy it brings me.



Cites 1kiki cites, where are those damn cites???


Guns and Bombs build nations and keep aggressors out.


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Saturday, January 3, 2015 4:58 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Still waiting for an answer THUGR. Yanno I asked first. After you.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
So sitting - peacefully - in a public space, where the public supposedly has the right to be - as an expression of the constitutional right to 'peaceably to assemble and to petition the government for a redress of grievances' is a crime that needs to be stopped using mace? Because, in your mind, the only other possibilities are batons or bullets?




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.[/quote

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 5:10 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



SignyM to THUGR: Why are you asking KIKI for cites to one of my posts? Isn't that a little misdirected?



Because THUGR is very - no, make that pathologically - confused. About a lot of things.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 5:19 PM

THGRRI


I gave you an answer 1kiki. I needed cites to confirm what you were suggesting and you refuse to accommodate.

Simple.... Cites 1kiki show me the cities that collaborate the post in question. Have your hissy fits, call me anything you wish, but get the damn cites.


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Saturday, January 3, 2015 5:25 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Then quote it.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015 5:53 PM

THGRRI


That's what I thought. I never expected to get them, just wanted to remind all here what a...you are.




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Sunday, January 4, 2015 1:07 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Saturday, January 3, 2015 5:19 PM
I gave you an answer 1kiki.



Let's recap - shall we?

The question:


Friday, January 2, 2015 3:35 PM
So sitting - peacefully - in a public space, where the public supposedly has the right to be - as an expression of the constitutional right to 'peaceably to assemble and to petition the government for a redress of grievances' is a crime that needs to be stopped using mace? Because, in your mind, the only other possibilities are batons or bullets?

Was this your answer roughly four hours later?


Friday, January 2, 2015 7:21 PM
cites please or was it staged


How about this one roughly eight hours after the question?


Friday, January 2, 2015 11:31 PM
When you're done having a hissy fist (sic) I would appreciate those cites please.


This one?


Saturday, January 3, 2015 12:16 PM
Still waiting for those cites 1kiki.


Or this one?


Saturday, January 3, 2015 12:35 PM
Cites 1kiki


Or maybe this one?


Saturday, January 3, 2015 4:54 PM
Cites 1kiki cites, where are those damn cites???



You see, most honest people - obviously not you - understand that simply claiming you answered (after 24 hours of avoiding answering) doesn't constitute an answer. And now here you are - proven by a record of your own posts - to be the liar that you are. Because that answer you claimed you gave - is not in any of your posts.

And btw, I will happily provide the cites to anyone by PM - but not to you - who asks. Because, unlike you, I actually have answers. But you, sadly, have chosen to insist on remaining an ignorant asshole. So I will accommodate your choice. And now, by the record of your very own posts, you are proven liar as well. You've achieved a trifecta.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Sunday, January 4, 2015 1:39 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I gave you an answer 1kiki.-THUGR
Then quote it.-KIKI


Well, of course he can't.

THUGR: Liar, liar! Pants on fire!




--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, January 4, 2015 2:38 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

.1kiki


So sitting - peacefully - in a public space, where the public supposedly has the right to be - as an expression of the constitutional right to 'peaceably to assemble and to petition the government for a redress of grievances' is a crime that needs to be stopped using mace? Because, in your mind, the only other possibilities are batons or bullets?



This is your original post. You are referring to the pictures of protesters SIGNYM posted. I addressed that with her and then asked you to cite it's source if you too wished to post it as fact. You still have yet to do so.

Reasonable people 1kiki can see I asked for a way to clarify what you were posting was accurate. Your last post shows you have yet to provide the cite to confirm it's authenticity.

As for how long it took for me to respond back to you, once again reasonable people will understand I was not logged onto the site and was busy doing other things. Your attempts to blur the issue is sad and void of logic. It is also over.

Bombs and guns builds nations and keep aggressors out.


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Sunday, January 4, 2015 2:46 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


THUGR< if you didn't have your head stuck up your ass most of the time, you would recognize the events from which those pictures were drawn. In fact, I daresay that most of the people here recognize where the pictures came from and remember the related events. Constantly demanding to be shown the origins of pictures which you should recognize automatically ... well, it doesn't say much for either for your general state of knowledge, your ability to do a web search, or your ability to "inspect element". If you're really, really stuck, I'll provide you with the cites later. Just remind me in a week or so. Far too much of this thread has been wasted pandering to your ignorance, and your constant demonstration thereof.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, January 4, 2015 2:58 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I addressed that with her ...



But you didn't answer MY question. So, are you going to answer MY question? People - not in the street. Not impeding anyone. Peaceful. Unresisting. Not even defending themselves against being maced directly in the face. Can you answer MY question?



So sitting - peacefully - in a public space, where the public supposedly has the right to be - as an expression of the constitutional right to 'peaceably to assemble and to petition the government for a redress of grievances' is a crime that needs to be stopped using mace? Because, in your mind, the only other possibilities are batons or bullets?




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Sunday, January 4, 2015 3:49 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So THUGR - are you going to answer MY question? That question you never did answer, though that didn't stop you from lying and claiming you did ...




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Sunday, January 4, 2015 4:04 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
THUGR< if you didn't have your head stuck up your ass most of the time, you would recognize the events from which those pictures were drawn. In fact, I daresay that most of the people here recognize where the pictures came from and remember the related events. Constantly demanding to be shown the origins of pictures which you should recognize automatically ... well, it doesn't say much for either for your general state of knowledge, your ability to do a web search, or your ability to "inspect element". If you're really, really stuck, I'll provide you with the cites later. Just remind me in a week or so. Far too much of this thread has been wasted pandering to your ignorance, and your constant demonstration thereof.



What a crock of shit. I'm speaking with and tell you friend 1kiki I think she has everyone fooled.


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Sunday, January 4, 2015 4:17 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



So THUGR - are you going to answer MY question? That question you never did answer, though that didn't stop you from lying and claiming you did ...






SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Monday, January 5, 2015 4:25 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Find me that answer. THUGR certainly couldn't. Then it eventrually ran away.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Monday, January 5, 2015 11:42 PM

THGRRI


That's because all 1kiki does is lie and misrepresent the truth. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that's all she does. Apparently she is limited in intelligence and that's all she is capable of.


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Friday, January 16, 2015 8:00 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


More and more happening on the economic war front.

Crimea joins Russia.

Sanctions ensue.

Russia, accused of shooting down MH17, on the basis little evidence. More sanctions ensue.

Russia inks giant gas deal with China, and counter-sanctions western food imports.

Capital sanctions are applied to Russia, and the EU throws barriers up around the South Stream pipeline.

Russia countermoves by redirecting its planned gas flow away from Bulgaria, and into Turkey.

Price of oil drops thanks to decreasing demand and Saudi commitment to maintaining production. Altho this looks like a political move, the Saudis insist this is purely market-share protection.

Havoc ensues in ALL oil-producing countries, especially those with high cost of production (USA fracking, Canadian tar sands) and those nations which rely on oil sales for a large part of foreign capital (Russia, Venezuela, Qatar etc).

The Russian ruble drops, thanks to speculation on the forex.

Russia starts implementing its own SWIFT alternate.

Russia offers a deal to the EU: back out of TTIP, join a Eurasian Union, and you can even keep your sanctions in place.

In the wake of no response, Russia informs the EU that it plans to eliminate ALL gas flow through Ukraine. Gas will be piped up to the border of Greece and Turkey, after that, the EU has to figure out how to distribute it.

EU blubbers.

Meanwhile, China has not left Venezuela out of the picture, offering them a $20 billion dollar loan.

Even more interesting, Qatar has ALSO offered Venezuela a loan, to improve their agricultural system.

---------------

I said in one of my previous posts that old alliances are breaking and new ones are forming. It's almost impossible to tell who is on who's side. I would have thought that China and Russia might step in to protect Maduro from his terrible economic strategies, but.... QATAR???

It seems to me like Qatar is trying to dump its dollars in some semi-productive way. Or maybe they just want to tweak the Saudis.

Sheesh, what next?
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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, January 17, 2015 1:16 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, looking at this from the Russian-Chinese angle, what is their next move?

Back to 2008.
... It's very difficult to know what's going on in China. I've read their press releases in the English-language version Xinhua, and they are ... inscrutable. *sigh* So all I can do is broad-brush Chinese economic development with observations tied together with assumptions.

China took off on the wrong foot under Mao. The Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution took economic development backwards, so somewhere along the way the Chinese Politburo decided to develop by the Japanese model: offer themselves as a cheap-labor source to the west, in return for investments in production facilities at home. With the caveats that there was the problem of prison labor being the initial fodder into this program, and the distortion of productive capacity being wrapped around western markets, and (in addition) the fact that Chinese themselves "have never aspired to be wage slaves in factory-dorms held in place by suicide netting" ... and the Chinese never did put their currency on the open market (it was always pegged to the dollar) nonetheless ... things went SWIMMINGLY(!) for 30 years or so. Until the bottom dropped out in 2008, and the Chinese found their western markets had suddenly evaporated, and along with it their export economy.

The Chinese made a post-haste decision to promote internal demand through expanded lending (I have yet to figure out how they did that w/o the PBOC) and infrastructural projects. There was apparently quite a bit of chicanery with that flood of money which Xi Jingping is now trying to clear up and claw back. But in addition to the policy adjustments, I think 2008 was a wakeup call to the Chinese leadership about the flaws of western financialism.

In addition, Obama's Asia Pivot (2009) was a clear signal to the Chinese that they were not only NOT considered economic partners by the west, but actual enemies. (The west had also been quietly subverting China's quest for oil via the maritime route: the "string of pearls" envisioned by China never got off the ground and their best source of sweet crude - Sudan- was destabilized by the USA. I find it interesting to note that the Chinese now have peacekeeping troops in the Sudan under UN auspices.)

Two years ago, hubby and I listened to a statement on Chinese TV (a TV channel otherwise filled with dreck) by a leading academic on China's new foreign policy approach: We will make allies of friends, and friends of neutrals. But if we cannot militarily protect our allies and friends, no one will take us seriously. I think I may have posted about it at the time. It was, hubby noted, absolutely pivotal. Whether it was 2008 or the Asia Pivot, the Chinese woke up to the fact that the USA would step on them as soon as possible. The TTP - which excludes China- is just another indication of the same direction.

China's ties to the west, and to the USA in particular, is that it is still has 60% of its foreign reserves, or about $2T of dollar-denominated holdings, of which about $1.3T are Treasuries. However, China is seeking to reduce its foreign reserves
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-11/-4-trillion-peak-for-china-s-
stockpile-of-foreign-currency-may-free-pboc-s-hands.html
and to expand trade in its own currency (yuan/renminbi) You can see this here http://www.bis.org/publ/work446.pdf

In addition, China's main trading partners are Hong Kong 17.4%, US 16.7%, Japan 6.8%, South Korea 4.1

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/205
0.html
... but excluding Hong Kong, which re-exports Chinese goods elsewhere and re-exports foreign goods to mainland China (PRC) and is therefore listed as PRC's main trading partner no matter which stats you look at, China's main market is still the USA, its main source of oil is Saudi Arabia followed by Angola http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH. and it's main source of imports is still the EU.

So although China has been working overtime to create new investments and financial structures elsewhere (Venezuelan loan, the Panama Canal alternate, the new Silk Roads, the gas and trade and arms deals with Russia, the BRICS Bank, the Asia Development Bank, the alternate SWIFT- with which it trades with Iran - and so forth) its current economic and financial ties to the west are still robust.

Anyway, this is still a work in progress/thinking out loud. Duty calls. More later



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Friday, January 23, 2015 12:01 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Originally posed by KIKI here http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=59018&mid=9
92512#992512


Quote:


Distortions, lies and omissions: The New York Times won’t tell you the real story behind Ukraine, Russian economic collapse
International papers will cover America's role in the world honestly. Only our best paper willingly blinds itself
Patrick L. Smith



A note arrived a few days ago from one of my best informants in Europe. He had just met across a hotel dining table with a senior German executive, and the topic quickly turned to the crisis in Ukraine and the sanctions regime Washington has imposed on Russia.

I can do no better than give you the pertinent passage in the note:

“… I spoke … breakfast time in Europe… with the head of one of the largest companies in Germany. This declaration was one of the first items he mentioned. I took notes—because it is one of my clients—and here is what he said: ‘It is urgent for Europe to bring Obama and the people making the decisions behind him back to reality. If not, this will spiral first into a financial collapse, which will slam into all of Europe, and then who knows where it goes after that? Everywhere, far-right nationalist forces are building. Look at the last U.S. Congressional elections, and think what is coming. Will America ever have had a more nationalist Congress? Le Pen would be right at home in this crowd. The course we are on now is folly. Can’t they see that?’”

I wish I could say the German exec’s question is a good one, but the grim answer is too obvious. They can see nothing in Washington. We witness the single most reckless, destructive foreign policy this administration has yet devised, comparable in magnitude to Bush II’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003.

President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry wanted Middle East peace to stand as their legacy on the foreign side. Now they propose restored relations with Cuba as the bronze monument. Forget about it. The devastation of ties with a global power, the dissolution of Ukraine and very possibly the ruination of Europe’s barely beating economic recovery will be what we live with after this administration makes its exit.

I am awestruck as news of recent events unfolds. Ukraine is more than an economic, political and military mess: It is a major humanitarian tragedy now. As the German CEO wants to know, how can we possibly arm neo-Nazis in Ukraine while right-wing extremists and anti-immigration atavists rise all over Europe?

The body blows the State Department and Treasury are dealing Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis—as precipitated by State, of course—would be irresponsible under any circumstances for the risks they carry. In the current global environment, this starts to shape up as monomania.

Thoughtful readers point out that this is a standoff between two nuclear powers, and, indeed, this has to be on our minds. But for the moment, and thank goodness, that is in the background. The very immediate menace is a global economic calamity that could make the 2008 crisis look like a blip on the chart.

Last week Fitch, the credit-rating agency, downgraded Russia’s status to BBB, putting it a few notches away from junk status. This is hardball, we had better recognize: You cannot shove the world’s No. 8 economy into the gutter and expect it to land there alone. A lot of suffering beyond Ukraine’s borders, where it is awful enough already, is frighteningly near.

Before I go any further: No, you are not reading much about this in the American press. You can read about it in the German press, the French press and elsewhere on the Continent, in the Czech press, the Russian press (obviously), some of the British press, and even the Chinese press. But all those journalists and all their readers are in a propaganda bubble, the world’s greatest newspaper wants us to know.

It is crowded inside the propaganda bubble and lonely here outside of it, it seems. To this topic we will return.

* * *

At year-end I predicted in this space that one of two key relationships stood to fracture in the course of this year: These were either Europe’s ties with Russia or America’s with Europe. I continue to think the latter would be the breach that will leave us all better off.

In my read Washington has drastically overplayed its hand with the Europeans from the first round of sanctions onward. Now those overly courteous Europeans are at last taking the kidskin gloves off. We had hints of this before the holidays, when Matteo Renzi, the Italian premier, said at a European summit in Brussels, “Absolutely no to more sanctions.”

Now François Hollande asserts that, no, Moscow has no desire to annex eastern Ukraine, no, there is no need for more sanctions, and yes, sanctions now in place must be lifted if, as Hollande and other European leaders continue to anticipate, what you may read notwithstanding.

This is what it sounds like inside the propaganda bubble, where people such as Renzi and the president of France live and breathe.

Alas, you never know whom you are going to bump into inside the bubble. A couple of weeks ago Heinz Fischer, Austria’s president, rejected sanctions—past and to come—as well as the E.U.’s association deal with Ukraine. The latter, of course, is the holy covenant at the heart of the Ukraine crisis:

“The approach that more and more sanctions should be implemented against Russia until it is weak enough to forcefully accept the E.U.’s own political objectives is a mistake,” Fischer said in an interview with Wirtschaftsblatt, Vienna’s financial daily. “A serious crisis in Russia and an economic collapse would only create more problems.”

And on the E.U.-Ukraine pact: “It was recognized only at the last moment that it was a real ordeal for Ukraine to choose between the E.U. offer and the [comprehensive bailout] offer from Vladimir Putin, which was better suited to the realities faced by Ukraine in the fall of 2013. Ukraine needs to be free to build its own relationships with both Europe and Russia.”

With these kinds of comments in view, it emerges now that Europeans have been seduced. Beginning with the Danes at yearend, they have one by one complained that the intent was never to devastate the huge economy next door but to win Russia’s cooperation in Ukraine.

Washington’s ambitions have been grander from the first. This is the context of Victoria Nuland’s infamous “F the E.U.” remark last February. And we now witness the love act as Nuland and her colleagues at State seem to like it. Rough sex after the seduction, let us say.

The same disregard Washington displays toward Europe seems to be the case in Ukraine itself. The news coming from Kiev starts to make Greece look like the Klondike. The economy shrank 7.5 percent last year and will recede at least as much this. No one knows. It could shrink as much as 10 percent.

Here is what Roland Hinterkoerner, a thoughtful analyst at RBS Asia-Pacific, the Royal Bank of Scotland’s Hong Kong outpost, had to say about Ukraine in a recent economic report:

“The country is clinically dead…. There is nothing government or the central bank can do to stop the decline. The population is being pushed further and further into poverty. Food prices are up 25 percent and rent, electricity, gas and water by 34 percent…. This is the picture of a Ukraine that is looking an economic collapse in the eye. But its government is still attempting to channel money into the military to fend off the big bear’s aggression…. The danger for Ukraine is not Russia. It is its own demise….”

Bloomberg published an interesting report earlier this month on Ukraine’s external position. Read it here. The news in it is that Ukraine’s 2017 bond is now selling at 58 cents, down from par ($1) a year ago. Translation: The markets are now pricing in an across-the-board default. Kiev currently pays a yield of 35 percent on its debt.

Connect a few dots in the Bloomberg piece. Further tranches of the IMF’s $17 billion bailout, launched last April, are now blocked until Kiev makes more and very deep cuts in public spending.

O.K., $17 billion from the IMF, once the government savages its budget. Against this, Kiev has payments of $10 billion in debt service alone due this year—that is interest, not principal. With principal, Bloomberg puts the figure at $14 billion, and an additional $10 billion is due next year. It is not clear it can cover these payments even with the IMF funds.

Do you see what is going on here? The IMF’s bailout is not marked for Ukrainian social services or any other benefit to the citizenry. All that is about to be taken away, in the neoliberal style. The bailout money goes to Kiev and back out again to the Western financial institutions holding Ukrainian debt. In effect, debt held by private-sector creditors is transferred to the IMF, which uses it to leverage Ukraine into a free-market model via its standard conditionality: No austerity, no dough.

Now you know why the new finance minister in Kiev is an American apparatchik with long experience in the Hillary-era State Department. Now you know what Washington means when it uses the words “democracy” and “freedom.”

What makes all this go down so bitterly is the atrocious news coming out of Ukraine these days. Last week a long-scheduled new round of ceasefire talks, set to take place in Minsk, collapsed when the Poroshenko government refused to participate. Why?

Well, your source of information probably told you the reasons for Kiev’s abrupt withdrawal were “unclear.” DPA, the German news agency, was alone so far as I can make out in explaining it thus:

“Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who represents the government at the talks, had demanded that the separatists send their top leaders—Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky—instead of envoys, but the separatists refused.”

Absolutely horse manure. These people will make any possible excuse not to progress toward a political solution even as Poroshenko professes to desire one.

In my read, Poroshenko has no choice. Once again, I quote a recent note from a close observer in Europe, and I will leave it as it arrived:

“The presid. of Ukr cannot sue for peace, whatever he says, as the extreme right nationalists will not allow it…. So the only other way to get some resolution is to provoke war with Russia, which would then give cover to the U.S.-led blockade to move to another level. The state of the Ukr economy and politics are such that they desperately need a clash with Russia to draw the US / EU in more deeply….”

Proof of the pudding being in the eating, simultaneous with Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk talks, it launched a new military offensive in eastern regions. Day to day now, the airport at Donetsk, or what is left of it, changes hands as the body count rises toward 5,000.

Sure enough, Kiev now charges (yet again) that Russian forces have crossed the border in support of the Ukrainian rebels. A few points here: (1) It may be true this time. (2) If it is the Russians cannot be rationally blamed. (3) We had better look very closely at who is waging Kiev’s new campaign. (4) It is unlikely on the way to impossible that Kiev would act without direction from Geoffrey Pyatt, the American ambassador to Ukraine (and the other end of Nuland’s porny telephone call last February).

It has been more or less evident for some time that extreme-right nationalists have been key to Kiev’s military strategy as an advance guard and as shock troops in the streets of eastern Ukraine’s cities. Here is a Facebook entry posted the other day on Voice of Ukraine by Right Sector USA, which reps for said right-wing group in the States:

“As promised, here’s the news you are probably aware of by now—the combat has moved into Donetsk. The Right Sector and the 93rd Mechanized Brigade have wedged themselves into the city and continue to fight. Separatists are suffering heavy losses and keep running away. Despite this, the support is still needed, so we need you to share [this info] for maximum resonance and forcing the authorities to act immediately…. Please offer your support by sharing and sending prayers to our heroes! Glory to Ukraine!”

Horse’s mouth. And there is worse from the same source. Considering the cynical American role in creating and now worsening the Ukraine crisis, the following is a source of shame.

On New Year’s Day members of Svoboda, the extreme-right party that many neo-Nazis count their political home, held a candle-lit parade through Kiev to mark the 106th anniversary of Stepan Bandera’s birth. Bandera was the Jew-hating, Russian-hating, Pole-hating Third Reich collaborator, assassin and terrorist now honored as an icon of Ukrainian nationalism.

Look at the video, provided by Liveleak. Listen to the crazed chanting. Czech President Milos Zeman did, and the images reminded him of similar scenes during Hitler’s occupation of Czechoslovakia. Here is what Zeman said: “There is something wrong with Ukraine.”

Here is what the E.U. said: Nothing.

Here is what the State Department said: Nothing.

Here is what the American press reported: Nothing.

There is yet more, per usual with this bunch in Kiev. The day after the neo-Nazi parade Liveleak posted a video, with transcript, of a lengthy interview Channel 5 TV in Kiev conducted with a Ukrainian soldier. Poroshenko owned the station until he became president last year.

The station did the interview but killed it: “This interview was not aired, because the Ukrainian Government decided that it wasn’t appropriate for their purposes.” This is to put it mildly.

Forget about neo- or crypto- or any of that. This “trooper,” as the transcript unfortunately calls this man, is a right-in-the-open Nazi, worse than the most committed skeptic might have conjured. Ukraine is even better than Europe: “Only gays, transvestites and other degenerates live there.” Then: “When we have liberated Ukraine, we will go to Europe under our banners and revive all national socialist organizations there.”

All sorts of talk about “the purification of the nation,” a phrase Hitler liked, “a strong state,” who can stay in Ukraine and who must go. Now comes repellent language, readers, but we should all know of it:

“First of all, we ought to oust, and if they do not wish to leave, then cut the throats of all of the Muscovites, or kikes—we will exterminate all of them. Our principle is ‘One God, one country, one nation’”—this also from Hitler. “As far as the current government is concerned, can you see that they are the same scum? Poroshenko is a kike….”

The blood boils. And it boils over with the haunting knowledge that American officials support these people. Beyond the sewer consciousness and language, there is the apparent danger: These people have the Kiev government backed into a corner, unable to behave responsibly.

* * *

This is my report from the propaganda bubble. And I had better explain where this thought originates.

Earlier this month the New York Times published a lengthy takeout purporting to clear a lot of fetid air. This, at last, was to be the definitive piece as to just what happened when Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian president until last February, left office and then left Ukraine.

It was not a coup, two Times correspondents took thousands of words to tell us. It was something closer to a legitimate political defeat. “An investigation by The New York Times into the final hours of Mr. Yanukovych’s rule… shows that the president was not so much overthrown as cast adrift by his own allies, and that Western officials were just as surprised by the meltdown as anyone else.”

Part 1 of this nonsense. The final hours bit is sheer ruse. Giving the impression of exhaustive reporting—it was hardly an “investigation”—the narrow time frame excludes all context and excuses a vast exercise in omission.

Part 2. Yanukovych’s allies indeed deserted him because the streets were filling with armed putchists and Yanukovych’s people understood, accurately, that their lives were in danger. Here we have a classic distinction without a difference.

Part 3. If Western officials were at all surprised, it was at the speed of the events they—or the Americans, at least—set in motion. There were no other surprises.

Interestingly, the Times correspondents quote Geoffrey Pyatt, the American ambassador then and now and Nuland’s sidekick. In the infamous telephone call, Pyatt was taking orders as to which Ukrainian puppet ought to be directed to do what.

No mention of the Nuland-Pyatt exchanges? No thought that Pyatt may be a compromised source with a conflict of interest the size of the State Department? Shame on you, correspondents, although this little bit of leaving out is hardly the worst of it.

The objectives of this extensive piece, splashed on page one a couple of Sundays back, were two so far as I can make out. One, to salvage the official American narrative in the face of excellent reporting refuting it and a crumbling consensus within the policy cliques, both noted in recent columns. Two, to wash a lot of soiled hands at the Times.

But the big takeout—never mind the quality, feel the weight, as correspondents sometimes quip—demonstrates nothing of any use, unless it is that the Times has finally realized it has dug itself into a hole on Ukraine and cannot get out.

That bubble bit came this way:

Russia attributed Mr. Yanukovych’s ouster to what it portrays as a violent, ‘neo-fascist’ coup supported and even choreographed by the West and dressed up as a popular uprising…. Few outside the Russian propaganda bubble ever seriously entertained the Kremlin’s line. But almost a year after the fall of Mr. Yanukovych’s government, questions remain about how and why it collapsed so quickly and completely.

I love the quotation marks around “neo-fascist.” These people never give up. Consider this passage against those above concerning the recent doings in Kiev. Nobody outside the Russian propaganda bubble, whatever this may consist of, has any need to “entertain the Kremlin line” to entertain the truth. How dare these self-serving hacks suggest otherwise?

In my analysis, the Times — and all the media that never say anything until the Times says it — got caught holding the bag this time. Washington launched off on a reckless adventure, it is not coming good in any dimension, all manner of distortions, lies and omissions are required to sustain it, and the Times thought it was business as usual. Now they are stuck. Good money after bad at this point, but the Times has a lot of it to spend yet.

Patrick Smith is the author of “Time No Longer: Americans After the American Century.” He was the International Herald Tribune’s bureau chief in Hong Kong and then Tokyo from 1985 to 1992. During this time he also wrote “Letter from Tokyo” for the New Yorker. He is the author of four previous books and has contributed frequently to the New York Times, the Nation, the Washington Quarterly, and other publications.

http://www.salon.com/2015/01/21/distortions_lies_and_omissions_the_new
_york_times_wont_tell_you_the_real_story_behind_ukraine_russian_economic_collapse/



--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, January 23, 2015 12:34 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Just to make few comments on some especially-salient points

Quote:

At year-end I predicted in this space that one of two key relationships stood to fracture in the course of this year: These were either Europe’s ties with Russia or America’s with Europe. I continue to think the latter would be the breach that will leave us all better off.
I have no idea when or if that fracture will take place. So far, Merkel is behaving like her tits are in a vise. Looking at the various pressures that are being brought to bear on her government, her security and intelligence services are completely compromised by the USA. Not only were the telephone calls of German citizens scanned by the NSA, Merkel's personal phone was tapped, and Germany's satellite-to-high-speed internet links (the ones they use to connect to their own armed forces and to large businesses and financial interests abroad) were also tapped. Germany just arrested a number of USA spies that they found in their foreign service and internal security operations. Meanwhile, Germany has reactivated its gold repatriation, which had been stalled by the Fed two years ago. I can't tell if Merkel is trying to safely wriggle out from under the USA's ass, or if it's preparing to leave the EU and the Euro and reconstitute its Deutschemark. Or maybe a little bit of both. Or neither!

Quote:

In my read Washington has drastically overplayed its hand with the Europeans from the first round of sanctions onward. Now those overly courteous Europeans are at last taking the kidskin gloves off. We had hints of this before the holidays, when Matteo Renzi, the Italian premier, said at a European summit in Brussels, “Absolutely no to more sanctions.”

Now François Hollande asserts that, no, Moscow has no desire to annex eastern Ukraine, no, there is no need for more sanctions, and yes, sanctions now in place must be lifted if, as Hollande and other European leaders continue to anticipate, what you may read notwithstanding.

There is a question as to why Kiev (which is only nominally in charge of its fighting forces, since right wing "national guard" refused Poroshenko's offer to be regularized) launched this latest attack in eastern Ukraine. The attack was followed by Kiev's commitment to enlarge the draft in stages, by something like 70,000 in the first wave, to an eventual total of 250,000 armed men. But that's bass-akwards: First the attack, THEN the draft? Either the rightwing just "went off" prematurely and unplanned, or their schedule was rushed along by outside events. I vote for the latter; this sequence of events has happened twice before: Rightwing irregulars attack eastern and southern Ukraine, then Kiev claims that Russia is "invading" (again!), then NATO dutifully echoes the claim.

Quote:

Washington’s ambitions have been grander from the first. This is the context of Victoria Nuland’s infamous “F the E.U.” remark last February. And we now witness the love act as Nuland and her colleagues at State seem to like it. Rough sex after the seduction, let us say.
What a metaphor!


Quote:

“The country [Ukraine] is clinically dead…. There is nothing government or the central bank can do to stop the decline. The population is being pushed further and further into poverty. Food prices are up 25 percent and rent, electricity, gas and water by 34 percent…. This is the picture of a Ukraine that is looking an economic collapse in the eye. But its government is still attempting to channel money into the military to fend off the big bear’s aggression…. The danger for Ukraine is not Russia. It is its own demise….”
Yep

Quote:

Connect a few dots in the Bloomberg piece. Further tranches of the IMF’s $17 billion bailout, launched last April, are now blocked until Kiev makes more and very deep cuts in public spending.

O.K., $17 billion from the IMF, once the government savages its budget. Against this, Kiev has payments of $10 billion in debt service alone due this year—that is interest, not principal. With principal, Bloomberg puts the figure at $14 billion, and an additional $10 billion is due next year. It is not clear it can cover these payments even with the IMF funds.

Do you see what is going on here? The IMF’s bailout is not marked for Ukrainian social services or any other benefit to the citizenry. All that is about to be taken away, in the neoliberal style. The bailout money goes to Kiev and back out again to the Western financial institutions holding Ukrainian debt.

No shit, Sherlock! It was always that way. I can point to Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland (where 28% of the population live in IMF-"enforced poverty") as being on the same rack, and to Brazil and other central and south American nations before that.

Quote:

Now you know why the new finance minister in Kiev is an American apparatchik with long experience in the Hillary-era State Department.
Yep. He's also, unelected, which is how he's persisted in his position over several changes of power.




Quote:

On New Year’s Day members of Svoboda, the extreme-right party that many neo-Nazis count their political home, held a candle-lit parade through Kiev to mark the 106th anniversary of Stepan Bandera’s birth. Bandera was the Jew-hating, Russian-hating, Pole-hating Third Reich collaborator, assassin and terrorist now honored as an icon of Ukrainian nationalism.
No problem! We can whitewash anything!

Quote:

Beyond the sewer consciousness and language, there is the apparent danger: These people have the Kiev government backed into a corner, unable to behave responsibly.
Yep.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, January 23, 2015 12:58 PM

THGRRI


rusian troll


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Friday, January 23, 2015 3:43 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Are you calling the author of the article a Russian troll?

HAHAHA!

What a troll you are! Useless for anything except... hey, thanks for the bump!

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, January 25, 2015 12:47 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Yesterday, the German newspaper Handelsblatt published an interview that has yet to be printed in any English-language newspaper with the head of Russia’s second largest VTB-Bank (Foreign Trade Bank), Andrei Kostin. Mr. Kostin stated: “Of course, there is a plan B [in the case of shutting Russia off from the SWIFT bank system], but in my personal opinion it would mean war—if this type of sanction will be introduced. America and Europe did that against Iran but with Iran at that time there were no diplomatic relations, only military containment… If Russian banks’ access to SWIFT will be prohibited, the US ambassador to Moscow should leave the same day. Diplomatic relations must be finished. Banking is the most vulnerable part of the Russian economy because the system is based so strongly on the dollar and the euro.”


Read more at http://observer.com/2014/12/top-russian-banker-and-putin-confidante-th
reatens-us-with-war/#ixzz3PoEgfmC8

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, January 25, 2015 12:57 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


This is who THUGR claims is a Russian troll

Quote:

Distortions, lies and omissions: The New York Times won’t tell you the real story behind Ukraine, Russian economic collapse

International papers will cover America's role in the world honestly. Only our best paper willingly blinds itself
Patrick L. Smith

A note arrived a few days ago from one of my best informants in Europe. He had just met across a hotel dining table with a senior German executive, and the topic quickly turned to the crisis in Ukraine and the sanctions regime Washington has imposed on Russia.

I can do no better than give you the pertinent passage in the note:

“… I spoke … breakfast time in Europe… with the head of one of the largest companies in Germany. This declaration was one of the first items he mentioned. I took notes—because it is one of my clients—and here is what he said: ‘It is urgent for Europe to bring Obama and the people making the decisions behind him back to reality. If not, this will spiral first into a financial collapse, which will slam into all of Europe, and then who knows where it goes after that? Everywhere, far-right nationalist forces are building. Look at the last U.S. Congressional elections, and think what is coming. Will America ever have had a more nationalist Congress? Le Pen would be right at home in this crowd. The course we are on now is folly. Can’t they see that?’”

I wish I could say the German exec’s question is a good one, but the grim answer is too obvious. They can see nothing in Washington. We witness the single most reckless, destructive foreign policy this administration has yet devised, comparable in magnitude to Bush II’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003.

President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry wanted Middle East peace to stand as their legacy on the foreign side. Now they propose restored relations with Cuba as the bronze monument. Forget about it. The devastation of ties with a global power, the dissolution of Ukraine and very possibly the ruination of Europe’s barely beating economic recovery will be what we live with after this administration makes its exit.

I am awestruck as news of recent events unfolds. Ukraine is more than an economic, political and military mess: It is a major humanitarian tragedy now. As the German CEO wants to know, how can we possibly arm neo-Nazis in Ukraine while right-wing extremists and anti-immigration atavists rise all over Europe?

The body blows the State Department and Treasury are dealing Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis—as precipitated by State, of course—would be irresponsible under any circumstances for the risks they carry. In the current global environment, this starts to shape up as monomania.

Thoughtful readers point out that this is a standoff between two nuclear powers, and, indeed, this has to be on our minds. But for the moment, and thank goodness, that is in the background. The very immediate menace is a global economic calamity that could make the 2008 crisis look like a blip on the chart.

Last week Fitch, the credit-rating agency, downgraded Russia’s status to BBB, putting it a few notches away from junk status. This is hardball, we had better recognize: You cannot shove the world’s No. 8 economy into the gutter and expect it to land there alone. A lot of suffering beyond Ukraine’s borders, where it is awful enough already, is frighteningly near.

Before I go any further: No, you are not reading much about this in the American press. You can read about it in the German press, the French press and elsewhere on the Continent, in the Czech press, the Russian press (obviously), some of the British press, and even the Chinese press. But all those journalists and all their readers are in a propaganda bubble, the world’s greatest newspaper wants us to know.

It is crowded inside the propaganda bubble and lonely here outside of it, it seems. To this topic we will return.

* * *

At year-end I predicted in this space that one of two key relationships stood to fracture in the course of this year: These were either Europe’s ties with Russia or America’s with Europe. I continue to think the latter would be the breach that will leave us all better off.

In my read Washington has drastically overplayed its hand with the Europeans from the first round of sanctions onward. Now those overly courteous Europeans are at last taking the kidskin gloves off. We had hints of this before the holidays, when Matteo Renzi, the Italian premier, said at a European summit in Brussels, “Absolutely no to more sanctions.”

Now François Hollande asserts that, no, Moscow has no desire to annex eastern Ukraine, no, there is no need for more sanctions, and yes, sanctions now in place must be lifted if, as Hollande and other European leaders continue to anticipate, what you may read notwithstanding.

This is what it sounds like inside the propaganda bubble, where people such as Renzi and the president of France live and breathe.

Alas, you never know whom you are going to bump into inside the bubble. A couple of weeks ago Heinz Fischer, Austria’s president, rejected sanctions—past and to come—as well as the E.U.’s association deal with Ukraine. The latter, of course, is the holy covenant at the heart of the Ukraine crisis:

“The approach that more and more sanctions should be implemented against Russia until it is weak enough to forcefully accept the E.U.’s own political objectives is a mistake,” Fischer said in an interview with Wirtschaftsblatt, Vienna’s financial daily. “A serious crisis in Russia and an economic collapse would only create more problems.”

And on the E.U.-Ukraine pact: “It was recognized only at the last moment that it was a real ordeal for Ukraine to choose between the E.U. offer and the [comprehensive bailout] offer from Vladimir Putin, which was better suited to the realities faced by Ukraine in the fall of 2013. Ukraine needs to be free to build its own relationships with both Europe and Russia.”

With these kinds of comments in view, it emerges now that Europeans have been seduced. Beginning with the Danes at yearend, they have one by one complained that the intent was never to devastate the huge economy next door but to win Russia’s cooperation in Ukraine.

Washington’s ambitions have been grander from the first. This is the context of Victoria Nuland’s infamous “F the E.U.” remark last February. And we now witness the love act as Nuland and her colleagues at State seem to like it. Rough sex after the seduction, let us say.

The same disregard Washington displays toward Europe seems to be the case in Ukraine itself. The news coming from Kiev starts to make Greece look like the Klondike. The economy shrank 7.5 percent last year and will recede at least as much this. No one knows. It could shrink as much as 10 percent.

Here is what Roland Hinterkoerner, a thoughtful analyst at RBS Asia-Pacific, the Royal Bank of Scotland’s Hong Kong outpost, had to say about Ukraine in a recent economic report:

“The country is clinically dead…. There is nothing government or the central bank can do to stop the decline. The population is being pushed further and further into poverty. Food prices are up 25 percent and rent, electricity, gas and water by 34 percent…. This is the picture of a Ukraine that is looking an economic collapse in the eye. But its government is still attempting to channel money into the military to fend off the big bear’s aggression…. The danger for Ukraine is not Russia. It is its own demise….”

Bloomberg published an interesting report earlier this month on Ukraine’s external position. Read it here. The news in it is that Ukraine’s 2017 bond is now selling at 58 cents, down from par ($1) a year ago. Translation: The markets are now pricing in an across-the-board default. Kiev currently pays a yield of 35 percent on its debt.

Connect a few dots in the Bloomberg piece. Further tranches of the IMF’s $17 billion bailout, launched last April, are now blocked until Kiev makes more and very deep cuts in public spending.

O.K., $17 billion from the IMF, once the government savages its budget. Against this, Kiev has payments of $10 billion in debt service alone due this year—that is interest, not principal. With principal, Bloomberg puts the figure at $14 billion, and an additional $10 billion is due next year. It is not clear it can cover these payments even with the IMF funds.

Do you see what is going on here? The IMF’s bailout is not marked for Ukrainian social services or any other benefit to the citizenry. All that is about to be taken away, in the neoliberal style. The bailout money goes to Kiev and back out again to the Western financial institutions holding Ukrainian debt. In effect, debt held by private-sector creditors is transferred to the IMF, which uses it to leverage Ukraine into a free-market model via its standard conditionality: No austerity, no dough.

Now you know why the new finance minister in Kiev is an American apparatchik with long experience in the Hillary-era State Department. Now you know what Washington means when it uses the words “democracy” and “freedom.”

What makes all this go down so bitterly is the atrocious news coming out of Ukraine these days. Last week a long-scheduled new round of ceasefire talks, set to take place in Minsk, collapsed when the Poroshenko government refused to participate. Why?

Well, your source of information probably told you the reasons for Kiev’s abrupt withdrawal were “unclear.” DPA, the German news agency, was alone so far as I can make out in explaining it thus:

“Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who represents the government at the talks, had demanded that the separatists send their top leaders—Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky—instead of envoys, but the separatists refused.”

Absolutely horse manure. These people will make any possible excuse not to progress toward a political solution even as Poroshenko professes to desire one.

In my read, Poroshenko has no choice. Once again, I quote a recent note from a close observer in Europe, and I will leave it as it arrived:

“The presid. of Ukr cannot sue for peace, whatever he says, as the extreme right nationalists will not allow it…. So the only other way to get some resolution is to provoke war with Russia, which would then give cover to the U.S.-led blockade to move to another level. The state of the Ukr economy and politics are such that they desperately need a clash with Russia to draw the US / EU in more deeply….”

Proof of the pudding being in the eating, simultaneous with Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk talks, it launched a new military offensive in eastern regions. Day to day now, the airport at Donetsk, or what is left of it, changes hands as the body count rises toward 5,000.

Sure enough, Kiev now charges (yet again) that Russian forces have crossed the border in support of the Ukrainian rebels. A few points here: (1) It may be true this time. (2) If it is the Russians cannot be rationally blamed. (3) We had better look very closely at who is waging Kiev’s new campaign. (4) It is unlikely on the way to impossible that Kiev would act without direction from Geoffrey Pyatt, the American ambassador to Ukraine (and the other end of Nuland’s porny telephone call last February).

It has been more or less evident for some time that extreme-right nationalists have been key to Kiev’s military strategy as an advance guard and as shock troops in the streets of eastern Ukraine’s cities. Here is a Facebook entry posted the other day on Voice of Ukraine by Right Sector USA, which reps for said right-wing group in the States:

“As promised, here’s the news you are probably aware of by now—the combat has moved into Donetsk. The Right Sector and the 93rd Mechanized Brigade have wedged themselves into the city and continue to fight. Separatists are suffering heavy losses and keep running away. Despite this, the support is still needed, so we need you to share [this info] for maximum resonance and forcing the authorities to act immediately…. Please offer your support by sharing and sending prayers to our heroes! Glory to Ukraine!”

Horse’s mouth. And there is worse from the same source. Considering the cynical American role in creating and now worsening the Ukraine crisis, the following is a source of shame.

On New Year’s Day members of Svoboda, the extreme-right party that many neo-Nazis count their political home, held a candle-lit parade through Kiev to mark the 106th anniversary of Stepan Bandera’s birth. Bandera was the Jew-hating, Russian-hating, Pole-hating Third Reich collaborator, assassin and terrorist now honored as an icon of Ukrainian nationalism.

Look at the video, provided by Liveleak. Listen to the crazed chanting. Czech President Milos Zeman did, and the images reminded him of similar scenes during Hitler’s occupation of Czechoslovakia. Here is what Zeman said: “There is something wrong with Ukraine.”

Here is what the E.U. said: Nothing.

Here is what the State Department said: Nothing.

Here is what the American press reported: Nothing.

There is yet more, per usual with this bunch in Kiev. The day after the neo-Nazi parade Liveleak posted a video, with transcript, of a lengthy interview Channel 5 TV in Kiev conducted with a Ukrainian soldier. Poroshenko owned the station until he became president last year.

The station did the interview but killed it: “This interview was not aired, because the Ukrainian Government decided that it wasn’t appropriate for their purposes.” This is to put it mildly.

Forget about neo- or crypto- or any of that. This “trooper,” as the transcript unfortunately calls this man, is a right-in-the-open Nazi, worse than the most committed skeptic might have conjured. Ukraine is even better than Europe: “Only gays, transvestites and other degenerates live there.” Then: “When we have liberated Ukraine, we will go to Europe under our banners and revive all national socialist organizations there.”

All sorts of talk about “the purification of the nation,” a phrase Hitler liked, “a strong state,” who can stay in Ukraine and who must go. Now comes repellent language, readers, but we should all know of it:

“First of all, we ought to oust, and if they do not wish to leave, then cut the throats of all of the Muscovites, or kikes—we will exterminate all of them. Our principle is ‘One God, one country, one nation’”—this also from Hitler. “As far as the current government is concerned, can you see that they are the same scum? Poroshenko is a kike….”

The blood boils. And it boils over with the haunting knowledge that American officials support these people. Beyond the sewer consciousness and language, there is the apparent danger: These people have the Kiev government backed into a corner, unable to behave responsibly.

* * *

This is my report from the propaganda bubble. And I had better explain where this thought originates.

Earlier this month the New York Times published a lengthy takeout purporting to clear a lot of fetid air. This, at last, was to be the definitive piece as to just what happened when Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian president until last February, left office and then left Ukraine.

It was not a coup, two Times correspondents took thousands of words to tell us. It was something closer to a legitimate political defeat. “An investigation by The New York Times into the final hours of Mr. Yanukovych’s rule… shows that the president was not so much overthrown as cast adrift by his own allies, and that Western officials were just as surprised by the meltdown as anyone else.”

Part 1 of this nonsense. The final hours bit is sheer ruse. Giving the impression of exhaustive reporting—it was hardly an “investigation”—the narrow time frame excludes all context and excuses a vast exercise in omission.

Part 2. Yanukovych’s allies indeed deserted him because the streets were filling with armed putchists and Yanukovych’s people understood, accurately, that their lives were in danger. Here we have a classic distinction without a difference.

Part 3. If Western officials were at all surprised, it was at the speed of the events they—or the Americans, at least—set in motion. There were no other surprises.

Interestingly, the Times correspondents quote Geoffrey Pyatt, the American ambassador then and now and Nuland’s sidekick. In the infamous telephone call, Pyatt was taking orders as to which Ukrainian puppet ought to be directed to do what.

No mention of the Nuland-Pyatt exchanges? No thought that Pyatt may be a compromised source with a conflict of interest the size of the State Department? Shame on you, correspondents, although this little bit of leaving out is hardly the worst of it.

The objectives of this extensive piece, splashed on page one a couple of Sundays back, were two so far as I can make out. One, to salvage the official American narrative in the face of excellent reporting refuting it and a crumbling consensus within the policy cliques, both noted in recent columns. Two, to wash a lot of soiled hands at the Times.

But the big takeout—never mind the quality, feel the weight, as correspondents sometimes quip—demonstrates nothing of any use, unless it is that the Times has finally realized it has dug itself into a hole on Ukraine and cannot get out.

That bubble bit came this way:

Russia attributed Mr. Yanukovych’s ouster to what it portrays as a violent, ‘neo-fascist’ coup supported and even choreographed by the West and dressed up as a popular uprising…. Few outside the Russian propaganda bubble ever seriously entertained the Kremlin’s line. But almost a year after the fall of Mr. Yanukovych’s government, questions remain about how and why it collapsed so quickly and completely.

I love the quotation marks around “neo-fascist.” These people never give up. Consider this passage against those above concerning the recent doings in Kiev. Nobody outside the Russian propaganda bubble, whatever this may consist of, has any need to “entertain the Kremlin line” to entertain the truth. How dare these self-serving hacks suggest otherwise?

In my analysis, the Times — and all the media that never say anything until the Times says it — got caught holding the bag this time. Washington launched off on a reckless adventure, it is not coming good in any dimension, all manner of distortions, lies and omissions are required to sustain it, and the Times thought it was business as usual. Now they are stuck. Good money after bad at this point, but the Times has a lot of it to spend yet.

Patrick Smith is the author of “Time No Longer: Americans After the American Century.” He was the International Herald Tribune’s bureau chief in Hong Kong and then Tokyo from 1985 to 1992. During this time he also wrote “Letter from Tokyo” for the New Yorker. He is the author of four previous books and has contributed frequently to the New York Times, the Nation, the Washington Quarterly, and other publications.



http://www.salon.com/2015/01/21/distortions_lies_and_omissions_the_new _york_times_wont_tell_you_the_real_story_behind_ukraine_russian_economic_collapse/



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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, January 25, 2015 1:22 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Yesterday, the German newspaper Handelsblatt published an interview that has yet to be printed in any English-language newspaper with the head of Russia’s second largest VTB-Bank (Foreign Trade Bank), Andrei Kostin. Mr. Kostin stated: “Of course, there is a plan B [in the case of shutting Russia off from the SWIFT bank system], but in my personal opinion it would mean war—if this type of sanction will be introduced. America and Europe did that against Iran but with Iran at that time there were no diplomatic relations, only military containment… If Russian banks’ access to SWIFT will be prohibited, the US ambassador to Moscow should leave the same day. Diplomatic relations must be finished. Banking is the most vulnerable part of the Russian economy because the system is based so strongly on the dollar and the euro.”



Just great. Now I guess we get to see if Obama will draw the line at overt war despite his neo-con masters. Or is he so stupid he thinks he'll be able to outbluff Russia.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Sunday, January 25, 2015 11:02 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Obama is an idiot, but he's following the Brzezinski-flavored neocon policy - the one that's focused on Russia and China instead of Israel and the Mideast. Remember that Brzezinski was the one who first thought to arm and fund jihadists in Afghanistan to counter the Russian threat.

WAY TO GO, ZBIGGY! You planted the seeds of jihadism sweeping the globe!


On the topic of world domination

Quote:

“Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/03/10/what-happens-to-ukraine-will-b
e-a-model-for-the-rest-of-us
/

Quotes from The Grand Chessboard - Zbigniew's rationale for USA total dominance of Eurasia (a document of offense, not defense)

Quote:

... But in the meantime, it is imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges, capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America. The formulation of a comprehensive and integrated Eurasian geostrategy is therefore the purpose of this book.” (p. xiv)

In that context, how America 'manages' Eurasia is critical. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world's three most advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map also suggests that control over Eurasia would almost automatically entail Africa's subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania (Australia) geopolitically peripheral to the world's central continent. About 75 per cent of the world's people live in Eurasia, and most of the world's physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for about three-fourths of the world's known energy resources. (p.31)

The momentum of Asia's economic development is already generating massive pressures for the exploration and exploitation of new sources of energy and the Central Asian region and the Caspian Sea basin are known to contain reserves of natural gas and oil that dwarf those of Kuwait, the Gulf of Mexico, or the North Sea. (p.125)

In the long run, global politics are bound to become increasingly uncongenial to the concentration of hegemonic power in the hands of a single state. Hence, America is not only the first, as well as the only, truly global superpower, but it is also likely to be the very last. (p.209)

Never before has a populist democracy attained international supremacy. But the pursuit of power is not a goal that commands popular passion, except in conditions of a sudden threat or challenge to the public's sense of domestic well-being. The economic self-denial (that is, defense spending) and the human sacrifice (casualties, even among professional soldiers) required in the effort are uncongenial to democratic instincts. Democracy is inimical to imperial mobilization. (p.35)

Moreover, as America becomes an increasingly multi-cultural society, it may find it more difficult to fashion a consensus on foreign policy issues, except in the circumstance of a truly massive and widely perceived direct external threat. (p. 211)


http://www.takeoverworld.info/grandchessboard.html



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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, February 6, 2015 3:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:

Angela Merkel and François Hollande are to meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible peace plan for Ukraine, as fears rise that failure to secure a breakthrough could trigger an escalation in a conflict that has already cost more than 5,000 lives.

Before leaving for Moscow, the French president said securing a ceasefire for eastern Ukraine was just a first step and that a “comprehensive agreement” must be sought.

On Thursday, the US secretary of state, John Kerry, said Washington was weighing up whether to supply arms to the Ukrainian government.



This is probably the real reason for Hollande's and Merkel's emergency meeting with Putin. The fact that the two EU-founding members are together on this makes me think that they desperately want to get off the USA track.

Quote:

Hollande and Merkel were expected to hold talks with Putin at 5pm Moscow time (2pm GMT), though there was significant uncertainty over what ideas they were bringing to the table. They undertook the hasty and unusual mission after Putin put forward his own plan and they responded with counter-proposals, amid an upsurge of fighting and growing European fears that a US decision to supply arms to Kiev could trigger an uncontrollable rise in violence.

Or, as Hollande put it, "total war". That means nuclear too.

Quote:

Merkel and Hollande met the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, in Kiev on Thursday evening.
Telling him what he has to accept?

Quote:

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin, said on Twitter that the leaders had discussed “steps so that the Minsk agreement can start working”. A ceasefire signed in Minsk in September froze the frontlines at their positions at the time, but never held.

Kerry sounded lukewarm about Merkel and Hollande’s visit.


Russia has been the target all along. The EU should get with the program, damnit!

Quote:

He said Putin had sent “a couple of ideas” to France and Germany, and the pair had come up with a response but he did not give details. Kerry also said the US wanted a diplomatic solution but was reviewing all options, including “the possibility of providing defensive systems to Ukraine”.
Soundly rejected by France, Germany, and other NATO members.

Quote:

US officials are concerned that Putin will use European eagerness to stop the fighting to consolidate his hold on Crimea and eastern Ukraine and shrug off the obligations Russia undertook in Minsk to cut off the flow of arms and manpower to the pro-Moscow separatists.

Hollande, however, has insisted that the Franco-German proposals were based on a guarantee of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. He warned “the diplomatic option cannot be extended indefinitely”.

The chances of a breakthrough hinge on establishing a durable ceasefire and the prospect of that looked slim, according to senior officials and diplomats briefed on the initiative in Brussels.

Putin was said to be refusing to negotiate with Poroshenko, after making fresh proposals to Kiev 48 hours ago. While senior officials in Brussels said the “new initiatives” in the “Putin plan” were worth exploring, the little that was known suggested they would be very hard for Kiev to swallow.

Up to a point, time is on Russia's side. Sending arms to Ukraine will entail training people on entirely new unfamiliar systems. It's something of a race: will Kiev collapse before America steps in?

Quote:

Putin wants to redraw the “demarcation line” showing pro-Russian rebel-held territory, expanding it by around 500 sq km from that agreed last September in Minsk. Merkel has always insisted that the Minsk deal is the only basis for a settlement. While seizing a bigger chunk of eastern Ukraine, Putin also insisted that the “autonomous” areas beyond the control of the Ukrainian government nevertheless continue to benefit from central government budget funding.
Currently, the "autonomous regions" are paying into central funds such as pension funds. I don't see what that can't continue.

Quote:

This would mean that Kiev was paying for the partition of the country and financing what would probably become a frozen conflict perpetuating Russian and separatist control of the region.
Wrong, see above.

Quote:

“Putin wants to create a fait accompli and create a new demarcation line,” said a senior diplomat.

A senior official involved in the talks said that Putin’s offer was pointless and would not be accepted. But three senior figures in Brussels said that changes could be made to the Minsk accords depending on what Putin offered in return.

What COULD he offer in return? Withdraw troops that aren't there?

Quote:

Merkel and Hollande were expected to warn Putin that in the absence of any diplomatic breakthrough, the pressure to supply arms to the Ukrainians could become irresistible and that talk of eventual admission of Ukraine to NATO would move up the agenda.

[But] The Europeans are almost unanimously opposed to arming the Ukrainians, although Lithuania is already making deliveries.

“If we prepare the other side for war, there will be a war and Putin will win that war. That’s the majority view in Europe,” said the diplomat.

Unless the USA becomes involved, and then the EU becomes a warground for the USA. Not an attractive option for Europe.

Quote:

Ahead of a major international security conference in Munich on Friday, Wolfgang Ischinger, the veteran German diplomat who runs the meeting, warned that the Merkel-Hollande gambit was “probably a last chance”.

A senior British army officer has urged the British government to support the establishment of a conventional deterrent against Russian forces.

Gen Sir Richard Shirreff, who was the leading British commander in Nato until last March, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that a strong message needed to be sent to the Russian president, if mainland Europe was to avoid “total war”.

“Unless Nato speaks from a position of strength, we are gifting the advantage to Mr Putin,” Shirreff said. “Wars start as a result of weakness, not of strength. That dynamic once started gets worse if there is a sense of weakness on one side.”

Pro-Russia rebels and the Ukrainian authorities agreed on Friday to create a humanitarian corridor to remove civilians from the heart of fighting in eastern Ukraine, the Associated Press reported. Rebel leaders said they reached agreement with Ukrainian authorities to allow the evacuation of civilians from Debaltseve, a railway hub that has become the main target of a rebel offensive because of its strategic location. It was not immediately clear where the evacuees would go.

The ceasefire around Debaltseve held on Friday, as a convoy of several dozen buses drove from nearby Vuhelhirsk toward Debaltseve, where a shrinking population has been trapped in the crossfire and left without power, heating and running water for almost two weeks.

Zorian Shkiryak, an adviser to the Ukrainian interior minister, said on Facebook that “the green corridor has been confirmed”. Eduard Basurin, a rebel spokesman in Donetsk, said about 1,000 civilians were expected to be evacuated on Friday.


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/06/merkel-hollande-putin-ukr
aine-peace-plan-rebels-moscow



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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, February 7, 2015 1:40 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Even as talks are planned to continue, Kiev intensifies its shelling of Donetsk.

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Saturday, February 7, 2015 12:49 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, there was one brief flash of info on Russian press, quickly withdrawn. What it said was very interesting, but since it's now disappeared and may have been inaccurate, I can only describe approximately what it said but can't even provide a link: A new "line of contact" would be drawn which would give the DPR-LPR an additional 1500 km^2, and the cease fire would start from there.

However, there is now a total news blackout on the state of negotiations in all media (Russian, British, American, European) so nobody knows anything.

Furthermore, since Kiev is shelling Donetsk under the policy of "break Donetsk at all costs", using (according to the DPR) cluster bombs and incendiary devices



and the DPR-LPR is pressing ahead with taking Debalstseve, everyone is acting as if the boundaries have not yet been set, but may be determined by where the line of contact is when the clock stops (whenever that is).

Just as an exercise in speculation, I'm going to try to think my way through the various interests, pressures, and options.

UNITED STATES: The USA has been angling for this war ever since Russia stopped us from bombing Syria (which, as you may recall, was based on the entirely specious "reason" that Assad gassed his own people - eventually undercut by UK lab finding that the Sarin was "kitchen-grade". But like the MH17-precipitated sanctions, we never let evidence get in the way of policy!) It seems as if the USA is ready to go "balls to the wall" against Russia, using Kiev as its proxy. The calculation was, I think that sanctions would bring the Russian economy down in three years. But the USA can't wait three years, because Kiev is crumbling rapidly, and the EU is breaking apart under austerity (Greece, Spain), and Russia isn't crumbling at all, even with a currency and oil price war added to the sanctions war, so NOW the plan is to put in USA arms and actually, officially draw Russia into a proxy war. Perhaps the idea is that a proxy war will turn into a long drain on the Russian economy, and eventually lead to the overthrow of the Russian government.

And then what?

RUSSIA
First of all, Putin has said that if USA arms Kiev, he will consider it a direct threat to Russian security and will respond appropriately. I don't think that Putin would limit his actions to a "proxy" war. I think that for all of the cries of "Russian invasion", there really WILL be a Russian invasion: unmistakable and swift.

Furthermore, he has to do this BEFORE or VERY SHORTLY AFTER American arms reach Ukraine. (From a political standpoint, waiting until just after the USA officially arms Kiev is preferable). As long as the actions directly against Russia remained primarily economic and political

(1) sanctions
(2) currency war
(3) oil price war
(4) South Stream Pipeline war
(5) Ukraine as economic money-pit (gas and coal loans etc)

Russia's responses could remain in the political and economic sphere (counter-sanctions, de-dollarization, economic Asian pivot, etc). There are other economic pressures Russia COULD bring to bear on Kiev or the EU, such as shutting off the gas, demanding immediate repayment from Ukraine, and defaulting on its loans from the EU, but once the USA escalates this to a military situation, I think Russia will respond militarily.

This is not an option they would choose. They would still like a unified, neutral, federalized Ukraine (minus Crimea). They really don't want a Novorossia, they have discouraged it at every turn in the political realm, refusing to recognize the new Novorossian governments while recognizing the Poroshenko government. When the DPR-LPR started to seriously gain ground on Kiev, Putin forced them to accept a cease fire that simply allowed Kiev to regroup. Russia's indirect/ covert assistance to DPR-LPR has been mostly in the realm of helping to prevent people from being totally overrun by the Kiev government, but not to extend their borders.

The only question is - how far would this Russian invasion extend, and where would they stop?

THE EU
The EU faces this with a mixed bag of motivations. Until now, the EU has either been forced, or has willingly played the USA hand. The waterboarding of BNP Paribas over the Mistral (technically something else), the mysterious Bulgarian bank runs over the South Stream Pipeline, the inability of Germany to repatriate its gold from the USA, and other banking pressures, plus the near-total surveillance of our "allies" has twisted the arms of many European governments to go along with sanctions.

The question is: Will they go along with the USA officially arming Kiev?

First of all, they couldn't stop it, even if they wanted to. As long as the USA does this independently, not as a member of NATO, neither the EU nor the individual member states can stop the USA (except perhaps by appealing to the UN, but the USA having a veto in the Security Council would guarantee that would be a pointless exercise.) However, what they CAN do is craft a new cease-fire. Which is what they're working on right now.

European interests clearly lie with peace in Ukraine. Any war would be near on on their soil (not the USA), and further disruption of trade with Russia will only hurt their economies (not the USA's). However, through a combination of decades-long inveigling, and near-complete integration of banking interests, plus the USA granting Germany subsidiary control of the EU (per the original design of the Marshall Plan) making Germany a valued political ally, the EU doesn't always operate in its own interests.

The EU is also contending with its own potential breakup. Germany is taking as hard a stance on Greece as Merkel ever did on Ukraine.

Lavrov and Kerry (and Biden) are still making their case to the EU. This - like the latest military actions- implies that decisions have not yet been made.

However, I'm assuming that- given the powerful anti-Russian interests of the USA, the collusion of the USA and EU banking system in that regard, and the divided interests of the EU, no cease-fire will be reached and no peace accords will be agreed on.

I will be happy to be proven wrong, but will be discussing this with people who are much more knowledgeable than I am about what might come next.



--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, February 7, 2015 1:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


This looks like the US deep-state run amok.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Saturday, February 7, 2015 3:55 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


"... the plan is to put in USA arms and actually, officially draw Russia into a proxy war. Perhaps the idea is that a proxy war will turn into a long drain on the Russian economy ..."

Because Afghanistan and Iraq did such wonders for the US economy? And China is no longer buying US 'dollarized' debt to fund these debt-heavy policies. Where would the US turn to borrow money for this?

I agree with you on another point with a different emphasis: when you see who benefits and who's the target you can see who's running the country and what are their goals.

.
.
.





SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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