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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
The Polling Aggregates 101
Monday, August 3, 2020 11:42 PM
REAVERFAN
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 1:05 AM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: Quote: The trend is upward. By every conceivable measure. Except the polls.
Quote: The trend is upward. By every conceivable measure.
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 1:50 AM
1KIKI
Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:07 AM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:38 AM
Quote:His numbers are up.
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 10:48 AM
THG
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: You're not telling me anything I don't know, regarding those numbers. I don't know what you're trying to argue here. His numbers are up. Not up to where they were back in March, but they're certainly up from where they were a month to a month and a half ago. They went down too during the peak of the fake impeachment. Then they went back up again. We're witnessing it going back up again. To deny it is stupid. You're not looking at the trend. You're using an obscure way of manipulating the data, and I can't figure out to what end. I get why Ted denies it. Why are you acting stupid? Do Right, Be Right. :)
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 10:52 AM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 11:00 AM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 11:48 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: Quote:His numbers are up. Not according to YOUR metric - that one must look ONLY at within-poll results.
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 11:59 AM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 12:01 PM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 12:36 PM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 1:45 PM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 1:58 PM
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 2:54 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: There is plenty good to post today. You just don't want to hear it. I'm not worried, buddy. I can't wait until election night. You're boy Joey better do whatever he can to keep the debates from happening, because it's going to be a slaughter. Have a nice day. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 3:08 PM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion. That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling. I might find something else when I check out the whole post.I'm going to need you to be more specific, and how you would rather I word it. The 11.1 is the SPREAD. Because the polls show a higher DISAPPROVE than APPROVE for Trump, the lower the SPREAD the better. The inverse would be true if his APPROVE were higher than his DISAPPROVE. Just like the APPROVE and DISAPPROVE columns, the SPREAD is calculated by adding up all of the SPREAD(s) from the polls in the Aggregate, then dividing by how many polls were in the Aggregate. ie: -6 +2 -18 -9 -11 -12 -12 -17 -12 -9 -18 = 122 122 / 11 (polls in the aggregate) = 11.0909090909 (to inifinity) or 11.1 On a side note, it seems that Ted is still oblivious to the point of this thread. The polls are biased bullshit today, just as they were in 2016. Perhaps more so. But that doesn't mean that they're still not useful when comparing them to themselves to find how things are TRENDING. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion. That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling. I might find something else when I check out the whole post.
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 5:11 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion. That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling. I might find something else when I check out the whole post.I'm going to need you to be more specific, and how you would rather I word it. The 11.1 is the SPREAD. Because the polls show a higher DISAPPROVE than APPROVE for Trump, the lower the SPREAD the better. The inverse would be true if his APPROVE were higher than his DISAPPROVE. Just like the APPROVE and DISAPPROVE columns, the SPREAD is calculated by adding up all of the SPREAD(s) from the polls in the Aggregate, then dividing by how many polls were in the Aggregate. ie: -6 +2 -18 -9 -11 -12 -12 -17 -12 -9 -18 = 122 122 / 11 (polls in the aggregate) = 11.0909090909 (to inifinity) or 11.1 On a side note, it seems that Ted is still oblivious to the point of this thread. The polls are biased bullshit today, just as they were in 2016. Perhaps more so. But that doesn't mean that they're still not useful when comparing them to themselves to find how things are TRENDING. Do Right, Be Right. :)Hey, man, I screwed up, and also misspoke. Partly from being too sleepy on Friday night, and partly from not posting until Monday, after reading Friday. You are correct about the spread. I knew that and understood it, but by the time I posted yesterday had forgotten which column was which and I incorrectly described the meanings. Turns out that 11.1% really is unweighted, and is merely an average of the other figures in that column. While looking at that, noticed that Politico was listed as a polling source, and also WaPo. How did they miss the DNC poll? Why skip the Soros poll as well? With WaPo having the smallest sampling (probably only folk in CA and NYC) as well as the greatest outlier, it has equal weight as the poll with 3.5 times the sample. Sorry to have wasted your time.
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 5:13 PM
Quote:Originally posted by THG: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: There is plenty good to post today. You just don't want to hear it. I'm not worried, buddy. I can't wait until election night. You're boy Joey better do whatever he can to keep the debates from happening, because it's going to be a slaughter. Have a nice day. Do Right, Be Right. :) It's your not you're boy Joe.
Sunday, August 16, 2020 10:55 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: You're not telling me anything I don't know, regarding those numbers. I don't know what you're trying to argue here. Why are you acting stupid? Do Right, Be Right. :)
Sunday, August 16, 2020 12:07 PM
Sunday, August 16, 2020 2:02 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: The numbers are fine. You'll see. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Sunday, August 16, 2020 2:04 PM
Sunday, August 16, 2020 2:11 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: this was just a vote about weighing Trump against a set of standards, that would be one scenario. But, in most people's minds, this is a CHOICE between TRUMP/(Pence) and Biden/(HARRIS), which is a completely different scenario. This is a bit like 2016, when Trump was being weighed against Hillary. Hillary's 'basket of deplorables' (and the DNC's identity politics platform) made Trump look kinda' good.
Monday, August 17, 2020 5:22 PM
Monday, August 17, 2020 5:50 PM
Monday, August 17, 2020 9:19 PM
Monday, August 17, 2020 11:43 PM
Quote:Originally posted by THG: Moron, this is about before Trump became president and now. Look at the polls. He's getting destroyed. Destroyed based on his record.
Quote:I'll add, you said he was the best person for the job in 2016. Your creds are shit.
Tuesday, August 18, 2020 4:57 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: Quote:Originally posted: Moron, this is about before Trump became president and now. Look at the polls. He's getting destroyed. Destroyed based on his record. Well, if you live by the polls then you die by them. CNN Poll of Polls: Biden's lead is narrowing https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/17/politics/biden-trump-poll-of-polls-august-election/index.html That's backed up by my scan of nearly a dozen betting sites and other polls. Biden was a poor choice. Adding Harris on top was an extra helping of a poor choice. Quote:I'll add, you said he was the best person for the job in 2016. Your creds are shit.
Quote:Originally posted: Moron, this is about before Trump became president and now. Look at the polls. He's getting destroyed. Destroyed based on his record.
Monday, August 24, 2020 1:57 PM
Monday, August 24, 2020 2:21 PM
Monday, August 24, 2020 5:28 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: ^ Warmongering, NeoCon backed Lincoln Project. He is leading in Rasmussen, which is an outlier compared to the contemporaries, true. But it was the only one that was right in 2016, and is likely more reflective of the actual situation again in 2020. So, you're right. He's not leading in the polls. But the polls are bullshit. Tracking trending from bullshit polls is useful, however, and the point of this thread. And it's not looking good for Democrats. Have a nice day. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Monday, October 5, 2020 4:06 PM
Monday, October 5, 2020 4:31 PM
SECOND
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Monday, October 5, 2020 8:13 PM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 8:16 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: No they don't.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 9:53 AM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 9:57 AM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 9:59 AM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 10:07 AM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 10:23 AM
CAPTAINCRUNCH
... stay crunchy...
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 10:24 AM
Quote:Originally posted by captaincrunch: I have my own, very scientific polling method: I drive around the city to all the different neighborhoods and count the campaign signs. Doesn't matter, rich or not so rich, Biden leads by an 8 to 1 margin. Incredible really. And the number of angry signs, "Flush the White House" "Get rid of the Turd" "ByeDon" etc, also stands out. I have never seen any pres candidate more hated in my city ever, than Trump. I am encouraged by this. But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse. So - toss up.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 10:34 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: He'll be fine.
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by captaincrunch: I have my own, very scientific polling method: I drive around the city to all the different neighborhoods and count the campaign signs. Doesn't matter, rich or not so rich, Biden leads by an 8 to 1 margin. Incredible really. And the number of angry signs, "Flush the White House" "Get rid of the Turd" "ByeDon" etc, also stands out. I have never seen any pres candidate more hated in my city ever, than Trump. I am encouraged by this. But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse. So - toss up. Fuck your elitism. There aren't any campaign signs around here at all. People around here aren't assholes like they are where you live. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 10:36 AM
Quote:Originally posted by THG: So tell me G. Do you see anyway after the election for Jack to be seen as anything but a troll? He’s all in when it comes to the hate ticket. All in when it comes to posting bullshit and denying facts. It's as clear as a glass of water who and what he is.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 11:04 AM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 2:30 PM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 4:19 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by captaincrunch: I have my own, very scientific polling method: I drive around the city to all the different neighborhoods and count the campaign signs. Doesn't matter, rich or not so rich, Biden leads by an 8 to 1 margin. Incredible really. And the number of angry signs, "Flush the White House" "Get rid of the Turd" "ByeDon" etc, also stands out. I have never seen any pres candidate more hated in my city ever, than Trump. I am encouraged by this. But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse. So - toss up. Fuck your elitism. There aren't any campaign signs around here at all. People around here aren't assholes like they are where you live.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 4:29 PM
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 4:31 PM
Quote:Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH: Quote:Originally posted by THG: So tell me G. Do you see anyway after the election for Jack to be seen as anything but a troll? He’s all in when it comes to the hate ticket. All in when it comes to posting bullshit and denying facts. It's as clear as a glass of water who and what he is. He’s been reduced to a pull string dummy. He has about 6 responses for everything, pull string: “wait until Nov 4th.” Pull string: “Faggot” Pull string: “C*nt” Nothing to say, no discussion, runs from any challenge. As far as I’m concerned Jack has always been a troll, drunk or sober. He’s insulted everyone here except maybe Sig. What he gains by posting here? No idea.
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