The Polling Aggregates 101 by 6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

So tell me G. Do you see anyway after the election for Jack to be seen as anything but a troll? He’s all in when it comes to the hate ticket. All in when it comes to posting bullshit and denying facts. It's as clear as a glass of water who and what he is.

He’s been reduced to a pull string dummy. He has about 6 responses for everything, pull string: “wait until Nov 4th.” Pull string: “Faggot” Pull string: “C*nt” Nothing to say, no discussion, runs from any challenge. As far as I’m concerned Jack has always been a troll, drunk or sober. He’s insulted everyone here except maybe Sig. What he gains by posting here? No idea. Maybe a perverse need to relive his mom’s abuse?

Good analogy G. He responded to our posts like a pull string dummy. He believes his insults can take the place of facts making him a winner in any discussion. How warped is that? By the way, he was the inspiration behind my signature.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Wednesday, October 7, 2020 8:29 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Good analogy G. He responded to our posts like a pull string dummy. He believes his insults can take the place of facts making him a winner in any discussion. How warped is that?

I respond to your posts with the seriousness in which they deserve.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that every time you post anything to anyone that you are insulting them. Whether you're being elitist, or calling somebody a Russian troll, you aren't here to debate.

As for my insults, I just don't really give a shit anymore. I used to try to engage in actual conversation with you people, but you ignore facts, you ignore trends, you consistently and conveniently forget what happened two weeks ago and trying to engage in any meaningful dialog with you is like slamming your head against a concrete wall.

Quote:
By the way, he was the inspiration behind my signature.

No shit, dummy.

Personally, I love it. Because I'm going to have fun watching you bounce on it after Trump wins reelection.

Maybe then you might start looking inward at the problems with the Democratic party and work on fixing it so they can win next time.

What I've witnessed in the last 4 years of my sobriety is half of the country wasting 4 entire years bitching and whining and not actually doing a single thing to make anything better.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, October 7, 2020 10:21 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:

But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse.

There's your elitism.

I even underlined it for you.

Cunt.

How else do you explain them wanting to vote for someone who thinks they're disgusting? They're just dang stupid?

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Wednesday, October 7, 2020 7:29 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

posted for future evaluation

ODDS OCT 6

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
Joe Biden -175
Donald Trump +145

https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/
Joe Biden (D) Bet365 -185 Betway -200
Donald Trump (R) Bet365 +165 Betway +160

https://odds.watch/trump-2020
There is currently a 33% chance that Trump will win Presidential Election 2020

https://www.predictit.org/
Which party will win the Electoral College?
Biden 67 cents
Trump 36 cents

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
Joe Biden
1/2
Donald Trump
15/8

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
Next President
Biden 61.6%
Trump 34.9%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_presiden
t/
10/6
Joe Biden (D) 64.3
Donald Trump (R) 35.1

POLLS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_ele
ction_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
RCP Average 9/22 - 10/6 Biden 51.6 Trump 41.9 Biden +9.7

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
October 7 Leader Biden +9.5 Biden 51.7% Trump 42.2%

Trump JOB APPROVAL

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html
RCP Average 9/22 - 10/6 approve 44.3 disapprove 53.6 spread -9.3

ODDS OCT 13

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
Joe Biden -200
Donald Trump +170

https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/
Joe Biden (D) Bet365 -185 Betway -200
Donald Trump (R) Bet365 +165 Betway +160

https://odds.watch/trump-2020
There is currently a 31% chance that Trump will win Presidential Election 2020

https://www.predictit.org/
Which party will win the Electoral College?
Biden 65 cents
Trump 39 cents

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
Joe Biden
10/21
Donald Trump
2/1

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
Next President
Biden 61.6%
Trump 34.9%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_presiden
t/
10/6
Joe Biden (D) 64
Donald Trump (R) 33.1

POLLS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_ele
ction_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
RCP Average 9/29 - 10/12 Biden 51.6 Trump 41.6 Biden +10.0

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
October 13 Leader Biden +10.6 Biden 52.5% Trump 41.9%

Trump JOB APPROVAL

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html
RCP Average 10/1 - 10/12 approve 44.6 disapprove 54.2 spread -9.6

Oct 20

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
Joe Biden -170
Donald Trump +130

https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/
Joe Biden (D) Bet365 -120 Betway -160
Donald Trump (R) Bet365 +130 Betway +125

https://odds.watch/trump-2020
There is currently a 38% chance that Trump will win Presidential Election 2020

https://www.predictit.org/
Which party will win the Electoral College?
Biden 65 cents
Trump 40 cents

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
Joe Biden
11/18
Donald Trump
8/5

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
Next President
Biden 60.8%
Trump 36.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_presiden
t/
10/20
Joe Biden (D) 58.8
Donald Trump (R) 35.2

POLLS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_ele
ction_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
RCP Average 10/6 - 10/19 Biden 51.6 Trump 41.9 Biden +9.7

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
October 20 Leader Biden +10.3 Biden 52.2% Trump 41.9%

Trump JOB APPROVAL

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html
RCP Average 10/8 - 10/9 approve 44.3 disapprove 53.3 spread -10.0

ODDS OCT 27

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
Joe Biden -190
Donald Trump +145

https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/
Joe Biden (D) Bet365 -210 Betway -222
Donald Trump (R) Bet365 +175 Betway +160

https://odds.watch/trump-2020
There is currently a 34% chance that Trump will win Presidential Election 2020

https://www.predictit.org/
Which party will win the Electoral College?
Biden 63 cents
Trump 42 cents

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
Joe Biden
1/2
Donald Trump
15/8

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
Next President
Biden 62.2%
Trump 35.7%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_presiden
t/
10/26
Joe Biden (D) 64.1
Donald Trump (R) 35.0

POLLS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_ele
ction_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
RCP Average 10/16 - 10/26 Biden 50.7 Trump 43.3 Biden +7.4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
October 27 Leader Biden +9.1 Biden 52.1% Trump 43.0%

Trump JOB APPROVAL

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html
RCP Average 10/15 - 10/26 approve 44.1 disapprove 53.1 spread -9.0

ODDS NOV 1

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
Joe Biden -175
Donald Trump +145

https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/
Joe Biden (D) Bet365 -185 Betway -187
Donald Trump (R) Bet365 +165 Betway +130

https://odds.watch/trump-2020
There is currently a 34% chance that Trump will win Presidential Election 2020

https://www.predictit.org/
Which party will win the Electoral College?
Biden 64 cents
Trump 42 cents

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
Joe Biden
8/15
Donald Trump
15/8

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
Next President
Biden 64.3%
Trump 35.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_presiden
t/
10/31
Joe Biden (D) 64.4
Donald Trump (R) 34.8

POLLS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_ele
ction_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
RCP Average 10/23 - 10/31 Biden 51.1 Trump 43.9 Biden +7.2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
November 1 Leader Biden +8.5 Biden 52.0% Trump 43.5%

Trump JOB APPROVAL

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html
RCP Average 10/16 - 10/31 approve 45.3 disapprove 53.0 spread -7.7

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Wednesday, October 7, 2020 8:24 PM

If you've got some disposable cash, you should put some good money down on Trump.

You stand to make quite a bit of money.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, October 8, 2020 4:52 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No they don't.
FiveThirtyEight Employees Scrambling To Jolt Nate Silver Awake After He Traveled Too Far Into Undecided Voter’s Mind

NEW YORK—Panicked FiveThirtyEight employees reportedly scrambled to jolt Nate Silver awake Thursday after the statistician traveled too far into an undecided voter’s mind while collecting data for the 2020 presidential election. “Nate, Nate—if you can hear me, you need to find a way out of this man’s temporal lobe now, because if you go any further into his voting history, you might not make it out alive,” said Senior Computational Journalist Masha Sidorov, who screamed after the incapacitated statistician—attached via electrodes to a 65-year-old independent from West Virginia—began to seize up, shake uncontrollably, and bleed from his nose and ears. “Oh my God, he promised he was just going to do a quick scan for implicit attitudes, but he’s been in there for hours, coming in and out of consciousness to yell either ‘Biden’ or ‘Trump.’ Nate, the further you go, the harder it will be for you to remember how to get out—in less than five minutes, you could become an undecided voter yourself.” At press time, several FiveThirtyEight employees strapped down Geoffrey Skelley, who had offered to go into the undecided voter’s mind and rescue Silver, after the statistician began to repeatedly scream “Jill Stein” and then flatlined.

www.theonion.com/fivethirtyeight-employees-scrambling-to-jolt-nate-sil
ve-1845215650

Trusted News source of the Fake News Libtards.

The Onion.

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Sunday, October 11, 2020 1:16 PM

Sorry Jack, JSF for this dose of reality.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Sunday, October 11, 2020 3:18 PM

REAVERFAN

Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/biden-best-position-challenger
/index.html

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Sunday, October 11, 2020 10:35 PM

No. It's actually not.

Why are you lying to everyone, CNN?

That's the question that everybody should be asking themselves now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, October 11, 2020 10:36 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Sorry Jack, JSF for this dose of reality.

Don't apologize to me unless it's to apologize for posting false news.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-bi
den-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, October 27, 2020 6:02 PM

Hey 6ix, I was wondering if you could do us a favor, currently or over the coming week.

This may not be the right thread for it, but I won't have adequate comupter time to do it, and most of the websites are crashing my browser.

Could you post the current polls and predictions for the election, a snapshot if you will? Totsal Electora Votes, plus Battlegraound States and supposed Toss-up States, perhaps the percentages for these states. And total Senae results, with Battlegraound States and Toss-ups. And total House Results.

Preferably text, not just links which are surely to be scrubbed as soon as possible?

Thanks if you can.
Not all of the polls which are always wrong, but perhaps the polls which were mostly or closest to right last time, and perhaps a few of the really big media polls.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2020 12:16 AM

That sounds like a pretty tall order.

Give me specifically which polls you'd like to see.

I probably won't have time to do in-depth state by state polls, but maybe if narrow it down to a few states I can do that too.

I can see why you want this data though. They did a good job hiding how badly they got it wrong in 2016. It makes it easy for somebody like Second to claim that nobody was saying that Clinton was a sure thing last time.

You and I both know that there are four lights though.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, October 28, 2020 3:40 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That sounds like a pretty tall order.

Give me specifically which polls you'd like to see.

I probably won't have time to do in-depth state by state polls, but maybe if narrow it down to a few states I can do that too.

I can see why you want this data though. They did a good job hiding how badly they got it wrong in 2016. It makes it easy for somebody like Second to claim that nobody was saying that Clinton was a sure thing last time.

You and I both know that there are four lights though.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You probably know which polls more than I. I heard that Trafalgar was close last time, and I think Rssmussen used to be close, and a while back Zogby was very accurate.
For the mainstream polls, I don't now. The closest ones at 270towin and rcp might work. What are the most widely quoted? All these polls websites crash my browser. Maybe NBC or CBS?

For States, nobody cares about CA, NY, IL. Likewise WY, UT, AL, Dakotas.
But the ones which Fake News sez will go Obiden an you know will go Trump would be good. If I made a list it might be MN, WI, MI, PA, NC, FL, AZ, IA.

Whatever you have time for, maybe a few per day.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2020 3:50 PM

Well things already changed today...

Electoral College.......Biden...Trump...Toss Ups
RCP Electoral Map.......232.....125.....181
No Toss Up States.......311.....227

On RCP, you can't go back and see a snapshot of what their frontpage looked like yesterday, and the website is constantly refreshing your own browser without your permission, so it can look different than it did 5 minutes prior and you can't even go back to that.

I don't remember the exact number yesterday (and for many weeks now), but the "No Toss Up States" on RCP had Trump at roughly 160 for at least a month now, and today is showing 227.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, October 28, 2020 4:01 PM

Well...

This is strange....

Archive.org is either willfully or unintentionally bad at keeping RCP's homepage archived.

When I first looked at the 26th, the number of "no toss ups" for Trump was 198, but now any page I look at no matter what the date seems to be pulling from RCP itself and showing the 227 currently... Even the page that showed 198 at first.

Maybe I'll try archive.today later.

(My computer is extremely slow after recent MS updates over the last month or so. I don't know how inclined I'm going to be to want to do this. I'm literally waiting about 90 seconds for each of these pages to finally load.)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, October 28, 2020 4:53 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Well things already changed today...

Electoral College.......Biden...Trump...Toss Ups
RCP Electoral Map.......232.....125.....181
No Toss Up States.......311.....227

On RCP, you can't go back and see a snapshot of what their frontpage looked like yesterday, and the website is constantly refreshing your own browser without your permission, so it can look different than it did 5 minutes prior and you can't even go back to that.

Exactly. This is what all of the polling websites do, for the polls which are always wrong.
This is why the text of the content is needed, instead of the useless links.

Quote:

I don't remember the exact number yesterday (and for many weeks now), but the "No Toss Up States" on RCP had Trump at roughly 160 for at least a month now, and today is showing 227.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

This is good info.
Thanks again for all of your hard work and effort.
I still cannot even view those sites, they all crash my browser.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2020 4:58 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Sorry Jack, JSF for this dose of reality.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

This vid shows some Fake Predictions for several States.
But I can't get the numbers into text right this moment.

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Friday, October 30, 2020 11:47 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Well things already changed today...

Electoral College.......Biden...Trump...Toss Ups
RCP Electoral Map.......232.....125.....181
No Toss Up States.......311.....227

On RCP, you can't go back and see a snapshot of what their frontpage looked like yesterday, and the website is constantly refreshing your own browser without your permission, so it can look different than it did 5 minutes prior and you can't even go back to that.
Exactly. This is what all of the polling websites do, for the polls which are always wrong.
This is why the text of the content is needed, instead of the useless links.
Quote:

I don't remember the exact number yesterday (and for many weeks now), but the "No Toss Up States" on RCP had Trump at roughly 160 for at least a month now, and today is showing 227.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
This is good info.
Thanks again for all of your hard work and effort.
I still cannot even view those sites, they all crash my browser.

You're welcome, but like I said, it takes me nearly 90 seconds to bring up a single archived page on my PC after recent MS and browser updates. Even the RCP homepage itself is slow to load, and opening multiple tabs to look at different factors like I usually do slows everything down to a crawl.

Numbers wise, on the specs, my PC really shouldn't be this slow... But I do realize that I am using dated technology which wasn't top of the line and more in line with the "sweet spot" on price, back in my Kmart days... So I'd guess I bought this around 6 or 7 years ago on Thanksgiving now.

I doubt very much there's some "grand conspiracy" to slow people's computers down to a crawl in the weeks leading up to the election, but it is unfortunate that it is happening right now.

I may not really have time to do this right now. Weather is unseasonably warm this weekend and next week and I'll need to take advantage of whatever time I have to wrap up some outside work.

I wanted to spend some time on it yesterday, but after a few explosions the power went out and I had no juice in my house until 2 hours after the sun was down. Not sure if a transformer went out or what, but it was loud. What a cold and windy miserable day to be cut off from my bright shiny rectangles.

Today would be the day if I'm going to get any done. I'll see what I can do.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 11:55 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Nate Silver on why 2020 isn’t 2016 - The FiveThirtyEight founder on polling error

Ezra Klein: Two questions on that, then. First, how does Biden’s lead compare to Clinton’s in 2016? And second, do you think pollsters have corrected the mistakes they made in 2016, such that their polls are likelier to be reliable this year?

Nate Silver: First, let me back up and say, Trump can still win. In 2016, our final forecast said Trump had a 29 percent chance, and that came through; right now we give him a 12 percent chance to win in November. That’s not trivial, but it is a different landscape. (Dropped to 10 percent, 10/30/2020 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ )

www.vox.com/21538214/nate-silver-538-2020-forecast-2016-trump-biden-el
ection-podcast

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, October 30, 2020 11:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Nate Silver on why 2020 isn’t 2016 - The FiveThirtyEight founder on polling error

Ezra Klein: Two questions on that, then. First, how does Biden’s lead compare to Clinton’s in 2016? And second, do you think pollsters have corrected the mistakes they made in 2016, such that their polls are likelier to be reliable this year?

Nate Silver: First, let me back up and say, Trump can still win. In 2016, our final forecast said Trump had a 29 percent chance, and that came through; right now we give him a 12 percent chance to win in November. That’s not trivial, but it is a different landscape. (Dropped to 10 percent, 10/30/2020 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ )

www.vox.com/21538214/nate-silver-538-2020-forecast-2016-trump-biden-el
ection-podcast

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

lol

Whatever, Nate.

You said he had 10% last year. Nothing's changed, buddy.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 12:09 PM

TO JSF:

Archive.today seems to at least do SOMETHING better...

They seem to be taking snaps of the page exactly as it was when the snapshot was taken. Hovering over the "links" seems to behave as if you were on the legit page, but clicking on any of them doesn't do anything. This also means that the auto-update from the Live site isn't happening either. I'm assuming they broke all the code to keep these time capsules.

Unfortunately though, you're stuck with ONLY what was on the page the moment the snapshot was taken. A lot of RCP's front page info, especially the most important bits about polling, is a rotating display between the President, the House and the Senate. If you're not seeing the one you want on the current page, you have to hope that another recent snapshot has the info you wanted.

They have a "Webpage" and a "Screenshot" tab. I was hopeful about that, but it seems the "Screenshot" tab doesn't go far enough to the right to show the actual results you'd be looking for in that rotating panel even if it's showing the one you want right now.

See as an example: http://archive.vn/SFcTb (and click between "Webpage" and Screenshot" to see what I'm referring to.

All that being said, Archive.today loads almost immediately in my browser compared to Archive.org and even RCP itself without all of those scripts running.

I wouldn't be able to get any individual polling data this way, but I might be able to compile some aggregates.

EDITED TO ADD: Crap. Going through the "Previous" snapshots starting with the newest first, it seems that Archive.today ALWAYS takes the snapshot with the "Senate" info from the rotating panel and you never see the day-to-day with the Presidential race info that has the top battleground aggregates.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 12:26 PM

Here's something... Way too much work for me to do anything with, I'm afraid, but if you felt so inclined you can download this information and work on something at your leisure if you desire...

https://archive.vn/G5J5N

There isn't a snapshot for this page every day, but there doesnt' need to be since this page always has a list of recent polling data from prior days. By hitting the "previous" link at the top, you can go back as far as somebody saved the data.

NOTE: You will lose any "sort" functionality here, but because of that con you will have data as it was recorded from day to day, and without all the scripts running you should be able to view these in your browser/computer that wouldn't bring up RCP otherwise.

This seems to be REALLY extesnive polling data for not only top battle grounds, but also for things like overall approval rating and the direction of the country as well. Lot's to sift through.

Sample Data from the link above (Unedited/Unformatted):

Quote:
Thursday, October 29

Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8
Florida: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden SurveyUSA Biden 47, Trump 42 Biden +5
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Minnesota Senate - Lewis vs. Smith SurveyUSA Smith 45, Lewis 42 Smith +3
President Trump Job Approval USA Today/Suffolk Approve 44, Disapprove 53 Disapprove +9
2020 Generic Congressional Vote USA Today/Suffolk Democrats 49, Republicans 39 Democrats +10
Direction of Country USA Today/Suffolk Right Direction 29, Wrong Track 58 Wrong Track +29

Wednesday, October 28
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette* Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 57, Trump 40 Biden +17
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden MIRS/Mitchell Research* Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Civitas/Harper (R)* Biden 47, Trump 46 Biden +1
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden East Carolina U. Trump 51, Biden 44 Trump +7
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 46, Biden 50 Biden +4
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Trump 42, Biden 46 Biden +4
Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden The Arkansas Poll Trump 65, Biden 32 Trump +33
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Christopher Newport Univ. Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon Colby College* Gideon 47, Collins 43 Gideon +4
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters ABC News/Wash Post Peters 52, James 46 Peters +6
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters NY Times/Siena* Peters 49, James 41 Peters +8
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters Detroit News/WDIV-TV Peters 48, James 39 Peters +9
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters MIRS/Mitchell Research* Peters 52, James 43 Peters +9
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham Civitas/Harper (R)* Cunningham 46, Tillis 43 Cunningham +3
South Carolina Senate - Graham vs. Harrison East Carolina U. Graham 49, Harrison 46 Graham +3
Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff Monmouth* Perdue 47, Ossoff 49 Ossoff +2
Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary Monmouth Warnock 41, Collins 19, Loeffler 22, Lieberman 4, Slowinski 2, Tarver 3 Warnock +19
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly Reuters/Ipsos Kelly 51, McSally 44 Kelly +7
Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield WHO-TV 13 Greenfield 51, Ernst 45 Greenfield +6
Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner Christopher Newport Univ. Warner 57, Gade 37 Warner +20
Arkansas Senate - Cotton vs. Harrington The Arkansas Poll Cotton 75, Harrington 20 Cotton +55
Maine 2nd District - Crafts vs. Golden Colby College Golden 56, Crafts 31 Golden +25
President Trump Job Approval CNN Approve 42, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +14
President Trump Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos Approve 42, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +15
President Trump Job Approval Emerson Approve 45, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +6
President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 52, Disapprove 47 Approve +5
President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 42, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +14
Congressional Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 15, Disapprove 68 Disapprove +53
2020 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 52, Republicans 42 Democrats +10
2020 Generic Congressional Vote CNN Democrats 54, Republicans 42 Democrats +12
Direction of Country Economist/YouGov Right Direction 30, Wrong Track 65 Wrong Track +35
Direction of Country Reuters/Ipsos Right Direction 26, Wrong Track 64 Wrong Track +38

Since I'm not going to take the time to put anything meaningful together with this data, I'll see if there is a way I can download it en masse and give you an archive of it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 12:31 PM

UPDATE:

Downloading even an individual page from Archive.today isn't possible through the download link on their own website. (From Wikipedia: "One can download archived pages as a ZIP file, except pages archived since 29 November 2019, when Archive.Today changed their browser engine from PhantomJS to Chromium.[15]")

That doesn't mean that it can't be done through the browser, and that some people who know more than I do haven't figured out a quick and easy way to download a lot of them at one time.

If I can't find an en masse solution, I'll grab a few recent ones for you, but you're probably going to have to do the heavy lifting on this.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 12:50 PM

UPDATE 2:

Downloading the pages individually seems to do the trick. I'm downloading them in Firefox, then I'm opening the downloaded pages in Chrome to verify they work on a different browser when downloaded and it works fine.

There are, however, a few caveats...

1. I've already hit my first snag. Although there are several pages on this link, day-to-day, it seems only page 1 is archived. Going back, this wasn't problem until after October 18th's since there was one every few days. But before the 18th, the next one was on the 5th. The data from the page on the 18th only goes back to some of the recorded polling from the 9th.

This information might not be lost just yet, but would have to be found by some other means. (I'll continue to make note of which data could be lost as I go back).

EDIT: Well... that was quick. After October 5th, we only have August 27th, August 26th, and then January 26th (which doesn't mean anything to us now). So yeah.. though it looks like data from the October 5th page goes back to everything on September 27th and a few from the 26th, most data before that except for a few late days in August isn't archived.

2. I'm not exactly sure what possible personal information I would be giving away if I were to put this all in an archive and link to it. That being said, do you still have access to the email address you have on file here? I'd be willing to share it only with you, but I will not be linking the history of polling data that I download to the people we deal with here in the RWED. I'm sure you understand.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 1:13 PM

UPDATE 3:

I'm able to get the missing data from Archive.org. Takes a long time to load the pages up, for sure, but since this data isn't updated regularly by scripts like the stuff in the sidebar it should be an accurate snapshot of the time it was taken.

My archive for you will have this stuff downloaded in two different folders. One for my Archive.Today rips, and one for the Archive.Org rips. I'm just going to go back as far on Archive.Org to get to the final data we had backed up on Archive.Today which was late August and went back to polls from August 16th.

Hope it's what you were looking for. No rush on the answer of how you want it and if I can still PM you the data from fff.net. I'll have this stuff backed up in about 20 minutes and waiting for ya.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 1:19 PM

Are you using Opera web browser? The free download is quite quick. After that, it is lightning on a RAM diet.

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Friday, October 30, 2020 1:23 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Here's something... Way too much work for me to do anything with, I'm afraid, but if you felt so inclined you can download this information and work on something at your leisure if you desire...

https://archive.vn/G5J5N

There isn't a snapshot for this page every day, but there doesnt' need to be since this page always has a list of recent polling data from prior days. By hitting the "previous" link at the top, you can go back as far as somebody saved the data.

NOTE: You will lose any "sort" functionality here, but because of that con you will have data as it was recorded from day to day, and without all the scripts running you should be able to view these in your browser/computer that wouldn't bring up RCP otherwise.

This seems to be REALLY extesnive polling data for not only top battle grounds, but also for things like overall approval rating and the direction of the country as well. Lot's to sift through.

Sample Data from the link above (Unedited/Unformatted):

Quote:
Thursday, October 29

Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8
Florida: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden SurveyUSA Biden 47, Trump 42 Biden +5
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Minnesota Senate - Lewis vs. Smith SurveyUSA Smith 45, Lewis 42 Smith +3
President Trump Job Approval USA Today/Suffolk Approve 44, Disapprove 53 Disapprove +9
2020 Generic Congressional Vote USA Today/Suffolk Democrats 49, Republicans 39 Democrats +10
Direction of Country USA Today/Suffolk Right Direction 29, Wrong Track 58 Wrong Track +29

Wednesday, October 28
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette* Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 57, Trump 40 Biden +17
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden MIRS/Mitchell Research* Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Civitas/Harper (R)* Biden 47, Trump 46 Biden +1
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden East Carolina U. Trump 51, Biden 44 Trump +7
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 46, Biden 50 Biden +4
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Trump 42, Biden 46 Biden +4
Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden The Arkansas Poll Trump 65, Biden 32 Trump +33
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Christopher Newport Univ. Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon Colby College* Gideon 47, Collins 43 Gideon +4
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters ABC News/Wash Post Peters 52, James 46 Peters +6
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters NY Times/Siena* Peters 49, James 41 Peters +8
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters Detroit News/WDIV-TV Peters 48, James 39 Peters +9
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters MIRS/Mitchell Research* Peters 52, James 43 Peters +9
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham Civitas/Harper (R)* Cunningham 46, Tillis 43 Cunningham +3
South Carolina Senate - Graham vs. Harrison East Carolina U. Graham 49, Harrison 46 Graham +3
Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff Monmouth* Perdue 47, Ossoff 49 Ossoff +2
Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary Monmouth Warnock 41, Collins 19, Loeffler 22, Lieberman 4, Slowinski 2, Tarver 3 Warnock +19
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly Reuters/Ipsos Kelly 51, McSally 44 Kelly +7
Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield WHO-TV 13 Greenfield 51, Ernst 45 Greenfield +6
Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner Christopher Newport Univ. Warner 57, Gade 37 Warner +20
Arkansas Senate - Cotton vs. Harrington The Arkansas Poll Cotton 75, Harrington 20 Cotton +55
Maine 2nd District - Crafts vs. Golden Colby College Golden 56, Crafts 31 Golden +25
President Trump Job Approval CNN Approve 42, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +14
President Trump Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos Approve 42, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +15
President Trump Job Approval Emerson Approve 45, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +6
President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 52, Disapprove 47 Approve +5
President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 42, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +14
Congressional Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 15, Disapprove 68 Disapprove +53
2020 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 52, Republicans 42 Democrats +10
2020 Generic Congressional Vote CNN Democrats 54, Republicans 42 Democrats +12
Direction of Country Economist/YouGov Right Direction 30, Wrong Track 65 Wrong Track +35
Direction of Country Reuters/Ipsos Right Direction 26, Wrong Track 64 Wrong Track +38

Since I'm not going to take the time to put anything meaningful together with this data, I'll see if there is a way I can download it en masse and give you an archive of it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

This data is awesome, excellent capture.

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Friday, October 30, 2020 1:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
UPDATE 3:

I'm able to get the missing data from Archive.org. Takes a long time to load the pages up, for sure, but since this data isn't updated regularly by scripts like the stuff in the sidebar it should be an accurate snapshot of the time it was taken.

My archive for you will have this stuff downloaded in two different folders. One for my Archive.Today rips, and one for the Archive.Org rips. I'm just going to go back as far on Archive.Org to get to the final data we had backed up on Archive.Today which was late August and went back to polls from August 16th.

Hope it's what you were looking for. No rush on the answer of how you want it and if I can still PM you the data from fff.net. I'll have this stuff backed up in about 20 minutes and waiting for ya.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Same email address, fine to PM me if you can.

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Friday, October 30, 2020 1:27 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data is awesome, excellent capture.

If you like that, you're going to love what you've got coming to you.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Same email address, fine to PM me if you can.

Will do, just as soon as I wrap up can find a place to drop a quick archive that isn't tied to an account.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 1:31 PM

UPDATE 4:

The Archive.org saves a TON of bullshit in the folder such as scripts and other junk that could have who knows what in there.

These folders are somehow tied to the html page downloads themselves, to trying to delete the folders results in deleting the file, and trying to copy the files results in copying the folders too. Turns out you can rename the folders and get a MS warning that the html might not work properly, and then that breaks the link.

I will be doing this before archiving the stuff. It won't be as pretty as it would have been, but all the data is still there, and my personal data exposure is much more grounded.

I'll keep copies of the original downloads in case there are any problems that come up with the versions stripped of the corresponding folder that you need me to sift through.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 2:51 PM

I sent it about 10 minutes ago. It's deleted after 2 hours. If you don't get to it let me know. That's the first sight I found for temporary file hosting and that was the max limit. Spent too much time on this today already and have to get some other things done.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 3:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I sent it about 10 minutes ago. It's deleted after 2 hours. If you don't get to it let me know. That's the first sight I found for temporary file hosting and that was the max limit. Spent too much time on this today already and have to get some other things done.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I thin I got it, need to look later. Didn't ask for password.

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Friday, October 30, 2020 3:13 PM

Looks like Obiden is going to win in a landslide.

Or maybe just in CA.

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Friday, October 30, 2020 3:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I sent it about 10 minutes ago. It's deleted after 2 hours. If you don't get to it let me know. That's the first sight I found for temporary file hosting and that was the max limit. Spent too much time on this today already and have to get some other things done.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
I thin I got it, need to look later. Didn't ask for password.

The archive is encrypted. It will ask for a password when you extract it.

Hope it's what you were looking for. Let me know if you have any problems. I still have the original downloaded stuff unaltered.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 3:20 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Looks like Obiden is going to win in a landslide.

Or maybe just in CA.

lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 7:59 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

The stock market’s ‘presidential predictor’ is forecasting a Biden victory

S&P 500 index close below 3,271.12 ‘implies, but does not guarantee’ loss for Trump

The stock-market metric doesn’t have a perfect record. All three instances in which the predictor failed were accompanied by extraordinary geopolitical factors. This time around, the market’s weakness in the run-up to the vote “is being driven by the renewed surge in COVID-19 and what it portends for future GDP/EPS growth,” Stovall said, referring to gross domestic product and earnings per share.

Along the same concept, Ryan Detrick, chief financial markets strategist at LPL Financial, has look backed at the market’s performance in the three month period ending on Election Day going back to 1928. That period this year runs from Aug. 3 to Nov. 3.

It’s also on track to signal a Biden victory. The S&P 500 would need to finish above the Aug. 3 close of 3,294.61 to turn it in favor of Trump. 3,269.96 was today's closing. Perhaps it will rise 25 points by Tuesday's close, signalling a Trump victory? That could easily happen if the number of Covid-19 deaths over the weekend turns the corner and starts dropping as Trump has been predicting.

www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-presidential-predictor-is-
on-cusp-of-delivering-bad-news-to-the-trump-campaign-11604076754

Trump Said U.S. Was ‘Rounding The Final Turn’ On Aug. 31 – And On 39 Of The 57 Days Since
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/27/trump-said-us-w
as-rounding-the-final-turn-on-aug-31-and-on-39-of-the-57-days-since/
President Trump has said the United States is “rounding the turn” – or “corner” or “bend” – on the coronavirus pandemic with shocking consistency over the last two months, a period in which average daily cases have risen sharply.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, October 30, 2020 9:35 PM

Nah.

Easy Trump win incoming.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 9:49 PM

Hey... um...

If Biden has this in the bag, how come he isn't on the offensive and campaigning in Texas? Why is he wasting his time in Democrat stronghold Minnesota?

And why are organizers in Florida, even according to Politico, panicking about current voter turnout and the fact that their requests for campaign money to put people on the streets knocking door to door in Miami are being ignored?

Your polls are bullshit. And the Democrats and Legacy Media are fucking terrified right now.

Michael Moore thinks Trump is going to win again too.

Remember when you all ignored him last time?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 30, 2020 9:58 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

The Election will be decided by a coin flip:

The hard money on the election isn’t nearly as tilted toward Biden as polling would indicate.

Goldman Sachs analysts Blake Taylor and Alec Phillips say prediction markets suggest the election outcome is still highly uncertain, implying just over a 60% chance that Biden will win the Electoral College.

www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-presidential-predictor-is-
on-cusp-of-delivering-bad-news-to-the-trump-campaign-11604076754

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, October 30, 2020 10:04 PM

^ Expect more stories like this in the coming days.

Gotta hedge those bets.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 7:38 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
^ Expect more stories like this in the coming days.

Gotta hedge those bets.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You have insisted that Trump has a 100% chance of winning. Trump has insisted the same when he said the only way he can lose is if the election is stolen. The real probability has always been 50/50, just like a coin flip. You can see that in how the Presidency keeps flipping back and forth randomly between Democrats and Republicans all the way to the beginning of the 20th Century. For a century Americans have not liked the Federal government and keep thinking that changing Presidents will fix what is wrong. That's why it is 50/50.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 8:37 AM

It's not a coin flip.

Biden can't get two dozen people to show up at the few rallies he holds and whenever he opens up his mouth he says something dumber and even more senile than the last time. The dude is running against George Bush for Senate. C'mon man!

He just had a stroke at his last rally, or did you miss that one?

Trump enthusiasm is through the roof, and the polls are bullshit.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 8:40 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
'Nobody likes me,' Trump complains, as even his allies fade

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nobody-likes-me-trump-complain
s-as-even-his-allies-fade/ar-BB17rVTf?ocid=msedgntp]

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 9:33 AM

Get a chance to look at any of those fake polls yet, JSF?

Found it interesting that for "No Toss Ups" on the Senate they're showing a 50-50 split for the first time today. In the months leading up to the election it's shown anywhere from only 46 to 49 seats red and the rest going blue.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 9:36 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
'Nobody likes me,' Trump complains, as even his allies fade

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nobody-likes-me-trump-complain
s-as-even-his-allies-fade/ar-BB17rVTf?ocid=msedgntp]

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

This article is just as irrelevant and out of context as it was when you posted it on August 1st, Ted.

Despite how the headline makes it sound, this is not an acknowledgement or even a complaint from Trump. This is something that Trump says all the time, and "nobody" is a reference to the shittiest people on the planet.

P.S. Fix your fucking signature.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 2, 2020 6:15 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Get a chance to look at any of those fake polls yet, JSF?

Found it interesting that for "No Toss Ups" on the Senate they're showing a 50-50 split for the first time today. In the months leading up to the election it's shown anywhere from only 46 to 49 seats red and the rest going blue.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Not yet, been busy. But having the data saved was what was important.

Any final prediction for total EV? For which states won? Which Senate seats or House won?

Want to post any of your fave polls for today?

Did you try Opera?

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Friday, November 6, 2020 9:58 AM