REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Will Your State Regain It's Representation Next Decade?

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Wednesday, March 13, 2024 19:28
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018 11:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


To the count you had last decade?

The 2020 Census is scheduled to have the standard set of questions, after the one-time Obama scam set which was used only in 2010. By removing a question to help hide Illegal Alien Status, he was able to redistribute Representatives and Electors to Libtard States and regions. States which were lean on Illegal Aliens like "rust belt" States lost their representation to States consumed and overrun by Illegal Aliens.

I'm in Wisconsin, which looks like it would gain back a seat.
Obviously, California and New York will lose seats. Likely also New Mexico and Arizona.

How about yours?
Or other States you know about?

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Wednesday, March 28, 2018 12:27 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 1:06 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


A related thread is tid=62878

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Friday, January 4, 2019 5:32 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Montana is certain to gain a Seat.
Idaho might gain a Seat.
Florida could gain 3 or 4 Seats, unless their Illegal Aliens were overcounted last time.
Texas might gain 3 seats if their Illegal Aliens were counted again (gained 4 seats that way), but without counting Illegal Aliens, might lose a Seat.
If California counted 5 Million Illegal Aliens last time, they could lose 7 Seats without that count.
AZ might lose the Seat they gained last time when counting Illegal Aliens.
NY, PA, IL, OH will likely each lose a Seat, due to Population loss or shift.
NC would gain a Seat, while MI would lose a Seat.
WA and CO could gain a Seat, if Illegals were not overcounted last time.
Utah is certain to gain a Seat, while KS or AR might lose a Seat.

Last time there were 12 House Seats which migrated.
The above summary suggests 10-13 gains.
And perhaps 15 losses.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 6:04 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu 10Pop/Rp 18est P/R
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 702,885 | 760,712 | 52 | 52/052 | 753,501/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 698,503 | 755,312 | 38 | 38/090 | 745,565
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 717,707 | 751,623 | 26 | 26/144 | 737,573
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 696,468 | 734,459 | 29 | 28/118 | 747,459
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 712,864 | 796,318 | 16 | 16/177 | 772,541/428

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 705,716 | 753,356 | 17 | 17/161 |
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 721,045 | 779,296 | 15 | 15/192 | 754,550/433
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | 706,009 | 769,147 | 13 | 13/232 | 741,168
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 692,049 | 751,391 | 14 | 14/206 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 733,515 | 741,687 | 14 | 13/219 | 769,685/429

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | 732,661 | 752,739 | 12 | 12/244 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 727,368 | 774,335 | 11 | 11/255 | 741,369
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | 672,454 | 675,963 | 11 | 10/265 | 718,490
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 727,535 | 766,905 | 09 | 09/283 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | 720,470 | 743,542 | 09 | 08/300 | 788,645/424

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 710,256 | 717,165 | 10 | 09/274 | 755,957/432
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | 705,142 | 752,223 | 09 | 09/292 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 748,616 | 765,807 | 08 | 08/308 | 722,009
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | 721,723 | 755,340 | 08 | 08/316 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 710,911 | 726,696 | 08 | 07/323 | 776,870/427

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 662,991 | 801,597 | 07 | 07/337 | 749,825
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 718,475 | 813,652 | 07 | 07/330 | 761,101/431
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 682,875 | 814,645 | 06 | 06/349 | 754,214/434
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | 660,772 | 726,447 | 07 | 06/343 | 784,497/426
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 755,580 | 776,663 | 06 | 06/355 |

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 723,225 | 744,734 | 06 | 05/360 | 815,814/422
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 766,215 | 838,145 | 05 | 05/365 | 765,116/430
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 750,323 | 788,616 | 05 | 05/370 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 714,824 | 893,166 | 04 | 04/374 | 798,872/423
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 761,715 | 789,036 | 04 | 04/382 | 705,735

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | 742,026 | 746,633 | 04 | 03/393 | 862,136/419
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | 728,990 | 753,456 | 04 | 04/390 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | 713,283 | 727,876 | 04 | 03/396 | 840,479/421
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | 690,648 | 790,279 | 04 | 04/378 | 706,844
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | 675,173 | 758,598 | 04 | 04/386 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | 686,397 | 698,799 | 03 | 02/398 | 855,454/420
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | 617,670 | 902,916 | 02 | 02/402 | 737,227
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | 608,780 | 964,634 | 02 | 02/400 | 787,620/425
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 783,826 | 887,104 | 02 | 02/404 |
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | 680,151 | 710,246 | 02 | 01/405 | 1004438/416

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | 664,181 | 669,202 | 02 | 01/407 | 946,394/418
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | 658,233 | 678,229 | 02 | 01/406 | 959,160/417
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | 526,465 | 528,657 | 02 | 01/409 | 747,634
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 989,417 | 531,152 | 02 | 01/408 | 751,163
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | 897,936 | 967,171 | 01 | 01/410 | 683,893

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | 814,191 | 882,235 | 01 | 01/411 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | 710,249 | 737,438 | 01 | 01/413 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | 672,591 | 760,007 | 01 | 01/412 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | 625,745 | 626,299 | 01 | 01/414 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | 563,767 | 577,737 | 01 | 01/415 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 | 708,405 | 750,494


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 3:40 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Summary of the above Table:
California would get the 435th Seat, just barely keeping its 53 Seats.
The next Seat would have gone to Montana. After that would be RI (would keep 2nd Seat), FL (would gain a 2nd Seat), MN (would keep current Seat).

TX gains 2.
FL gains 1. Also NC, AZ, CO, OR.
NY loses 1. Also IL, PA, MI, MN, VW, RI.

So 7 Seats would migrate if those Populations were Apportioned today.

Of the losers, 3 went to Trump.
Of the gainers, 4 States gaining 5 Electoral Votes went to Trump.
So that would be a gain of a margin of 4 for Trump.


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Monday, January 7, 2019 8:39 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Summary of the above Table:
California would get the 435th Seat, just barely keeping its 53 Seats.
The next Seat would have gone to Montana. After that would be RI (would keep 2nd Seat), FL (would gain a 2nd Seat), MN (would keep current Seat).

TX gains 2.
FL gains 1. Also NC, AZ, CO, OR.
NY loses 1. Also IL, PA, MI, MN, VW, RI.

So 7 Seats would migrate if those Populations were Apportioned today.

Of the losers, 3 went to Trump.
Of the gainers, 4 States gaining 5 Electoral Votes went to Trump.
So that would be a gain of a margin of 4 for Trump.


Projecting to 2020 Census with current Population and migration trends:
Florida would gain 2 Seats.
Montana would gain a Seat.
California would lose a Seat.
Either AL, OH, or AZ would lose a Seat. If Illegal Aliens were overcounted in AZ, that would be the most likely loss.

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Monday, January 7, 2019 8:44 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20

CA 53 53 53 52 lose 1
TX 32 36 38 38 gains 2
NY 29 27 26 26 loses another
FL 25 27 28 29 gains more
I L 19 18 17 17 loses another

PA 19 18 17 17 loses another
OH 18 16 16 16 will not regain
M I 15 14 13 13 loses another
GA 13 14 14 14
NC 13 13 14 14 gains 1 (should have had last time)

NJ 13 12 12 12 will not regain
VA 11 11 11 11
MA 10 09 09 09 will not regain
WA 09 10 10 10
I N 09 09 09 09

TN 09 09 09 09
MO 09 08 08 08 will not regain
AZ 08 09 10 09
MN 08 08 07 07 loses 1 Seat
W I 08 08 08 08

MD 08 08 08 08
CO 07 07 08 08 gains 1
AL 07 07 07 07
LA 07 06 06 06 will not regain
SC 06 07 07 07

KY 06 06 06 06
OR 05 05 06 06 gains 1
OK 05 05 05 05
CT 05 05 05 05
I A 05 04 04 04 will not regain

MS 04 04 04 04
AR 04 04 04 04
KS 04 04 04 04
NE 03 03 03 03
UT 03 04 04 04

NV 03 04 04 04
NM 03 03 03 03
WV 03 03 02 02 lose 1
I D 02 02 02 02
H I 02 02 02 02

ME 02 02 02 02
NH 02 02 02 02
R I 02 02 01 01 lose 1
MT 01 01 01 02 gain 1
DE 01 01 01 01

SD 01 01 01 01
AK 01 01 01 01
ND 01 01 01 01
VT 01 01 01 01
WY 01 01 01 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

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Saturday, January 12, 2019 12:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.

I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.

Projections from that 2014 data indicate Montana would not gain a Seat, and NY would not lose a Seat. And VA, CA would gain a Seat.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu | 2020 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 40,133,082 | 52 | 52/052 | 764474/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,590,783 | 39 | 38/090 | 768656/433
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,583,239 | 25 | 25/143 | 768117/434
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,922,945 | 29 | 28/118 | 769344/432
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,718,463 | 16 | 16/175 | 771170/431

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,833,103 | 16 | 16/159 | 778121/429
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,727,696 | 15 | 15/190 | 757019
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | 10,027,611 | 13 | 13/230 | 743295
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 10,727,173 | 14 | 14/204 | 740245
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 10,595,602 | 14 | 13/217 | 785398/425

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | 09,093,107 | 12 | 11/241 | 791453/424
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 08,646,845 | 11 | 11/252 | 752611
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | 07,738,353 | 11 | 10/262 | 737823
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 06,990,732 | 09 | 09/280 | 736887
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | 06,743,790 | 09 | 08/297 | 794763/423

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,366,481 | 10 | 09/271 | 776495/430
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | 06,875,944 | 09 | 09/289 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 06,160,833 | 08 | 08/305 | 726061
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | 06,109,951 | 08 | 08/313 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 05,845,138 | 08 | 07/327 | 781089/428

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,687,992 | 07 | 07/334 | 760089
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 05,862,124 | 07 | 07/320 | 783359/426
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,914,807 | 06 | 06/346 | 758371
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | 05,198,808 | 07 | 06/340 | 802193/420
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 04,691,604 | 06 | 06/352 | 718946

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 04,500,027 | 06 | 05/357 | 821588/419
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 04,280,623 | 05 | 05/362 | 781531/427
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 03,990,945 | 05 | 05/367 | 728643
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 03,572,302 | 04 | 04/371 | 798791/421
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 03,183,464 | 04 | 04/379 |

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | 02,991,137 | 04 | 03/389 | 863466/416
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | 03,038,292 | 04 | 03/386 | 877079/415
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | 02,926,098 | 04 | 03/392 | 844691/418
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | 03,260,409 | 04 | 04/375 | 729049
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | 03,117,827 | 04 | 04/383 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | 02,104,487 | 03 | 02/394 | 859153/417
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | 01,794,037 | 02 | 02/400 |
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | 01,955,000 | 02 | 02/396 | 798125/422
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 01,825,847 | 02 | 02/398 | 745398
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | 01,435,538 | 02 | 01/401 | A15078/412

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | 01,340,915 | 02 | 01/403 | 948170/414
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | 01,368,706 | 02 | 01/402 | 967821/413
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | 01,058,411 | 02 | 01/405 | 748409
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 01,080,527 | 02 | 01/404 | 764047
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | 00,984,480 | 01 | 01/406 | 696132

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | 00,899,246 | 01 | 01/407 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | 00,744,235 | 01 | 01/409 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | 00,781,348 | 01 | 01/408 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | 00,626,437 | 01 | 01/410 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | 00,581,229 | 01 | 01/411 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 | 331,042,139 > 761016


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
Projection for 2020 using 10/8 factor:
CA still squeaks by with the final Seat, and next is MT.
The difference: TX, FL gain 1, and OH, AL lose 1.

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Saturday, January 12, 2019 12:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Double posty. I'll make the first one with the 10/8 factor, and this one the 40/33 factor, in case there is a difference.



I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.

I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.





I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu 10Pop/Rp 18est P/R
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 40,045,804 | 52 | 52/052 | 762811/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,456,094 | 38 | 38/090 | 765157/434
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,577,023 | 26 | 25/143 | 767874/432
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,828,504 | 29 | 28/118 | 766030/433
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,721,890 | 16 | 16/175 | 771377/431

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,829,157 | 17 | 16/159 | 777881/429
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,721,836 | 15 | 15/192 | 756641
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | | 13 | 13/232 |
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | | 14 | 14/206 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | | 14 | 13/219 |

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | | 12 | 12/244 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | | 11 | 11/255 |
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | | 11 | 10/265 |
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | | 09 | 09/283 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | | 09 | 08/300 |

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,336,960 | 10 | 09/274 | 773383/430
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | | 09 | 09/292 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | | 08 | 08/308 |
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | | 08 | 08/316 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | | 08 | 07/323 |

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,676,354 | 07 | 07/337 | 758534
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | | 07 | 07/330 |
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,910,726 | 06 | 06/349 | 757741
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | | 07 | 06/343 |
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | | 06 | 06/355 |

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | | 06 | 05/360 |
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | | 05 | 05/365 |
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | | 05 | 05/370 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | | 04 | 04/374 |
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | | 04 | 04/382 |

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | | 04 | 03/393 |
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | | 04 | 04/390 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | | 04 | 03/396 |
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | | 04 | 04/378 |
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | | 04 | 04/386 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | | 03 | 02/398 |
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | | 02 | 02/402 |
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | | 02 | 02/400 |
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | | 02 | 02/404 |
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | | 02 | 01/405 |

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | | 02 | 01/407 |
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | | 02 | 01/406 |
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | | 02 | 01/409 |
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 01,077,766 | 02 | 01/408 | 762095
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | | 01 | 01/410 |

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | | 01 | 01/411 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | | 01 | 01/413 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | | 01 | 01/412 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | | 01 | 01/414 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | | 01 | 01/415 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 | 708,405 | 750,494


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
The numbers from 2018 Apportioning have the 431st Seat to CO, then AZ, OH, AL, CA. And then the 5 after cutoff are MT, MN, RI, FL (29th Seat), TX (39th Seat).

The numbers for Projected 2020 Census using 8/10 factor would give the 431st Seat to IL, then FL, TX, NY, CA. The next 5 after the cutoff would be MT, MN, AL, OH, VA. Then RI, ID.

The numbers for Projected 2020 Census using 99/120 factor would change to IL, NY, FL, TX, CA. Then MT, MN, AL, OH. The numbers are tighter, and the sequence moves around a bit, but the result ends up the same. From 2018 to 2020 FL and TX jumped in front of MT and MN, in these Projections.

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Saturday, January 12, 2019 1:21 PM

REAVERFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

That's because it's a shit place to live. Nothing but Jesus freaks and meth heads.

There's a reason they call it the middle finger of the south.

This Is the No. 1 Most Polluted State in America
https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/most-polluted-states-united-states.
html
/

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 12:13 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Adding in the Seats from Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20 P20 P19

CA 53 53 53 52 | 53 | 53
TX 32 36 38 38 | 39 | 38
NY 29 27 26 26 | 26 | 26
FL 25 27 28 29 | 29 | 29
I L 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17

PA 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17
OH 18 16 16 16 | 15 | 15
M I 15 14 13 13 | 13
GA 13 14 14 14 | 14
NC 13 13 14 14 | 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 | 12
VA 11 11 11 11 | 11
MA 10 09 09 09 | 09
WA 09 10 10 10 | 10
I N 09 09 09 09 | 09

TN 09 09 09 09 | 09
MO 09 08 08 08 | 08
AZ 08 09 10 09 | 10 | 10
MN 08 08 07 07 | 07
W I 08 08 08 08 | 08

MD 08 08 08 08 | 08
CO 07 07 08 08 | 08 | 08
AL 07 07 07 07 | 06 | 06
LA 07 06 06 06 | 06
SC 06 07 07 07 | 07

KY 06 06 06 06 | 06
OR 05 05 06 06 | 06
OK 05 05 05 05 | 05
CT 05 05 05 05 | 05
I A 05 04 04 04 | 04

MS 04 04 04 04 | 04
AR 04 04 04 04 | 04
KS 04 04 04 04 | 04
NE 03 03 03 03 | 03
UT 03 04 04 04 | 04

NV 03 04 04 04 | 04
NM 03 03 03 03 | 03
WV 03 03 02 02 | 02
I D 02 02 02 02 | 02
H I 02 02 02 02 | 02

ME 02 02 02 02 | 02
NH 02 02 02 02 | 02
R I 02 02 01 01 | 01
MT 01 01 01 02 | 01 | 02
DE 01 01 01 01 | 01

SD 01 01 01 01 | 01
AK 01 01 01 01 | 01
ND 01 01 01 01 | 01
VT 01 01 01 01 | 01
WY 01 01 01 01 | 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

Something I didn't really point out: one-time events do not help the accuracy of extrapolating Projection, so if Alabama does not suffer another catastrophic hurricane before the Census, it might not lose a Seat, and then CA would lose 1.

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 12:35 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by reaverfan:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

That's because it's a shit place to live. Nothing but Jesus freaks and meth heads.

There's a reason they call it the middle finger of the south.

This Is the No. 1 Most Polluted State in America
https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/most-polluted-states-united-states.
html/



lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 4:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019, which would be released around December 2019. So I will make another Projection for this. The factor will be 99/111, or 33/37.


I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.

I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.

Projections from that 2014 data indicate Montana would not gain a Seat, and NY would not lose a Seat. And VA, CA would gain a Seat.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu | 2019 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 39,836,336 | 52 | 52/052 | 758821/433
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,132,845 | 39 | 38/090 | 756761
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,562,103 | 25 | 25/143 | 767288/431
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,601,713 | 29 | 28/118 | 758071/434
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,730,114 | 16 | 16/175 | 771876/430

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,819,687 | 16 | 16/159 | 777307/428
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,707,953 | 15 | 15/190 | 755745
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | | 13 | 13/230 |
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | | 14 | 14/204 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | | 14 | 13/217 |

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | | 12 | 11/241 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 08,580,308 | 11 | 11/252 | 746819
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | | 11 | 10/262 |
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | | 09 | 09/280 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | | 09 | 08/297 |

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,266,111 | 10 | 09/271 | 765915/432
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | | 09 | 09/289 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | | 08 | 08/305 |
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | | 08 | 08/313 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 05,828,875 | 08 | 07/327 | 778916/427

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,648,422 | 07 | 07/334 | 754803
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 05,776,320 | 07 | 07/320 | 771893/429
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,900,931 | 06 | 06/346 | 756230
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | | 07 | 06/340 |
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | | 06 | 06/352 |

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | | 06 | 05/357 |
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | | 05 | 05/362 |
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | | 05 | 05/367 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | | 04 | 04/371 |
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | | 04 | 04/379 |

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | | 04 | 03/389 |
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | | 04 | 03/386 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | | 04 | 03/392 |
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | | 04 | 04/375 |
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | | 04 | 04/383 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | | 03 | 02/394 |
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | | 02 | 02/400 |
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | | 02 | 02/396 |
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 01,799,245 | 02 | 02/398 | 734538
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | | 02 | 01/401 |

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | | 02 | 01/403 |
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | | 02 | 01/402 |
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | 01,057,838 | 02 | 01/405 | 748004
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 01,071,140 | 02 | 01/404 | 757410/435
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | 00,975,563 | 01 | 01/406 | 689827

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | | 01 | 01/407 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | | 01 | 01/409 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | | 01 | 01/408 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | | 01 | 01/410 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | | 01 | 01/411 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 |


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
CA still squeaks by with the final Seat, and next is MT.
The difference: TX, FL gain 1, and OH, AL lose 1.
2019 Projection is competitive. OH and AL lose, while FL jumps in front of MT, but TX does not - so MT gets a 2nd Seat. Another year and TX bumps off MT, unless Illegal Aliens in TX are not counted.

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 6:18 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 6:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address
/

Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 6:34 PM

REAVERFAN


Yes. Illinois, being a blue-ish state, is more productive than the money-sucking red welfare state that is Indiana.

Indiana is what Pence and his cronies molded it to be . It's a Christofascist police state with shitty schools that drives people out.

It ranks 42nd in education. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/10/02/ohio-indiana-ke
ntucky-rank-among-least-educated.html


They have a surplus, but corporate taxes continue to dwindle. https://www.ibj.com/articles/69642-indiana-finishes-fiscal-year-with-s
urplus-but-corporate-income-taxes-shrink


And the cops are shit.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/29/671799943/indiana-police-face-allegatio
ns-of-police-brutality





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Sunday, January 13, 2019 7:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.



You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 7:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?



Why wouldn't they? The goons running Chicago steal money from the rest of the state. Doesn't seem like they know the difference either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 7:47 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

[Northwest Indiana] NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?

What are you claiming, JSF?

Are you claiming that Illinois state income tax rate is higher for Chicago Suburbs than in the rest of the state? You can't prove that.

Are you claiming that the sales tax that goes to the state is higher for Chicago Suburbs than the rest of Illinois? You cannot prove that, either.

Are you claiming that Chicago Suburbs' property taxes the same as Chicago's?

Are you claiming that the Suburbs taxes are completely unlike the rest of Illinois? Pretty unlikely. Got some proof?

Give us some numbers to backup whatever it is you are claiming.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 8:12 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.

You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You need to give me some numbers: What is the value of your dad's house versus your house? Telling me the taxes are $7k versus $1k tells me nothing about how much the house is worth. Why is that important? Everywhere in the USA, the property tax equals the tax rate times the value of the property. The house I'm sitting in right now would be worth millions if it was in Silver Lake, CA or River Oaks in Houston. But where it is located in Baytown it is worth 5% of that. And guess what? The property tax is only 5% of what it would be in those other places. I'm living larger than anybody in the LA area you ever heard of who is isn't a multi-billionare with a gold-plated house.

6ix, if your house is in a low value neighborhood, your taxes will be low, even if your house looks just as good as a house in a high value neighborhood in California. If I recall correctly, your house is in a flood zone. That can lower the value by 90% from the house 500 feet away that can't flood. Lowers the taxes by 90%, too. But I doubt your house looks good compared to your relative's homes, which explains the $7k your Dad pays versus $1k you pay.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 9:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.

You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You need to give me some numbers: What is the value of your dad's house versus your house? Telling me the taxes are $7k versus $1k tells me nothing about how much the house is worth. Why is that important? Everywhere in the USA, the property tax equals the tax rate times the value of the property. The house I'm sitting in right now would be worth millions if it was in Silver Lake, CA or River Oaks in Houston. But where it is located in Baytown it is worth 5% of that. And guess what? The property tax is only 5% of what it would be in those other places. I'm living larger than anybody in the LA area you ever heard of who is isn't a multi-billionare with a gold-plated house.

6ix, if your house is in a low value neighborhood, your taxes will be low, even if your house looks just as good as a house in a high value neighborhood in California. If I recall correctly, your house is in a flood zone. That can lower the value by 90% from the house 500 feet away that can't flood. Lowers the taxes by 90%, too. But I doubt your house looks good compared to your relative's homes, which explains the $7k your Dad pays versus $1k you pay.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



You know nothing about property taxes in Illinois if you're making that argument. Nor do you know anything about how different states come up with their property tax schemes independent of each other. No doubt you're completely aware of the clauses regarding property taxes that are in the Indiana State Constitution.

Do some research on Illinois property taxes. Figure out why it is impossible to fight them on your own without a lawyer.


Also, go ahead and look at property taxes in St. John, IN. Then look at property taxes in Orland Park, IL. Tell me which one is higher based off of the values of the homes.

Instead of insulting me, my home and the nice neighborhood I live in, do some fucking research and you won't come off like such a know nothing asshole.

Either that, or you could just shut the fuck up completely when you don't know what you're talking about. Whichever is easier for you.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 9:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


States With the Highest Property Taxes

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/states-highest-property-taxes-090000576
.html


Quote:

6. Illinois

Average state property tax rate: 2.253 percent
Median real estate taxes paid: $4,058

Illinois’ median home value is $174,300 — which is well below the national median. But the state’s property tax rate is the second-highest in the country.



Keep in mind that's the median for the entire state, including all of the houses out in the boonies. Almost everyone I know that lives in Illinois lives in Cook County which is higher than much of the rest of the state.





MORE:

https://smartasset.com/taxes/illinois-property-tax-calculator

Quote:

The state of Illinois has the second highest property taxes in the country. The statewide average effective tax rate is 2.32%, nearly double the national average.


How Your Property Taxes Compare Based on an Assessed Home Value of $250,000

McHenry County $6,915
2.766% of Assessed Home Value

Illinois $5,633
2.253% of Assessed Home Value

National $3,028
1.211% of Assessed Home Value




And as for Indiana, one of the main reasons it's so much cheaper in comparison is that there is a 1% tax cap on your home in the Indiana State Constitution, so it's lower than the national average by .211%.

Vehicle taxes here are high, and that makes up some of it. But only for new owners. You can pay somewhere around $600 in taxes the first year that you own a car if it's expensive enough. That goes down the first 10 years you own the car. If you didn't buy a Bentley, by 10 years it will be half of what all drivers in Illinois pay for vehicle registration.

My yearly vehicle registration since I've been here has been between $32 and $47. When I left Illinois it was $112. Not sure what it is there now, but it only goes up.



Houses here are also cheaper, this is true. Add that on top of the MUCH lower tax rate and this is a no-brainer. I've got three times the land as my brother does, and we both own similarly sized tri-level homes. Mine is in nice condition and I've done a lot of repairs. They paid top dollar for theirs after somebody fixed it all up and flipped it. It cost them around $210,000. I bought mine foreclosed for less than $70,000, but the previous owners had paid $150,000 for it.

That's the (lower) price you pay for living an extra 30 minutes from Chicago and over the border. For those of us like myself that don't care, it's a dream. The only big store that I don't have around me is IKEA, but you could say that for a majority of Americans.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, January 14, 2019 7:56 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

States With the Highest Property Taxes . . .

If you are worried about the difference between 2.253 percent in Illinois versus less than 1 percent in Indiana, you must really be freaked out by the seven federal tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%. I believe you’ve done things to keep yourself in a lower tax bracket. That way of thinking is self-defeating. I suggest The Munger Operating System: How to Live a Life That Really Works. https://fs.blog/2016/04/munger-operating-system/

One of the points Munger makes: Avoid intense ideologies. Always consider the other side as carefully as your own.

One more from Munger: I have a friend who carried a big stack of index cards about this thick, and when somebody would make a comment that reflected self pity, he would take out one of the cards, take the top one off the stack and hand it to the person, and the card said, “Your story has touched my heart, never have I heard of anyone with as many misfortunes as you”. Well, you can say that’s waggery, but I suggest that every time you find you’re drifting into self pity, I don’t care what the cause, self-pity is not going to improve the situation. Just give yourself one of those cards.

When you avoid self-pity you get a great advantage over almost everybody else because self-pity is a standard condition and yet you can train yourself out of it. And of course self-serving bias, you want to get that out of yourself; thinking that what’s good for you (less than 1% tax rate, for example) is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on the subconscious tendency to serve one’s self.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, January 14, 2019 9:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

States With the Highest Property Taxes . . .

If you are worried about the difference between 2.253 percent in Illinois versus less than 1 percent in Indiana, you must really be freaked out by the seven federal tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%. I believe you’ve done things to keep yourself in a lower tax bracket. That way of thinking is self-defeating. I suggest The Munger Operating System: How to Live a Life That Really Works. https://fs.blog/2016/04/munger-operating-system/

One of the points Munger makes: Avoid intense ideologies. Always consider the other side as carefully as your own.

One more from Munger: I have a friend who carried a big stack of index cards about this thick, and when somebody would make a comment that reflected self pity, he would take out one of the cards, take the top one off the stack and hand it to the person, and the card said, “Your story has touched my heart, never have I heard of anyone with as many misfortunes as you”. Well, you can say that’s waggery, but I suggest that every time you find you’re drifting into self pity, I don’t care what the cause, self-pity is not going to improve the situation. Just give yourself one of those cards.

When you avoid self-pity you get a great advantage over almost everybody else because self-pity is a standard condition and yet you can train yourself out of it. And of course self-serving bias, you want to get that out of yourself; thinking that what’s good for you (less than 1% tax rate, for example) is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on the subconscious tendency to serve one’s self.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



Spare me the philosophical bullshit.

You were wrong. It's okay to admit that.

The tax rate on property in most parts of Illinois that isn't farm land is effectively 2.5 to 3 times that of Indiana. Most people who "own" their homes in Illinois pay as much or more in property taxes as they would to just rent an apartment.

Where I live has everything that the Chicago suburbs in Illinois have, plus they even come and pick all my leaves up for me so I don't have to put them in 150 bags every year. There's a Wendy's, McDonalds, Burger King, White Castle, 5 gas stations all within a mile. Target, WalMart and a few malls within 5 miles.

The only thing it doesn't have that Chicago suburbs do is quick access to Chicago. Something that doesn't matter at all to me.



A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, January 14, 2019 10:16 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, many people who work in Houston decide it is better to live in Houston, have a short commute to work and pay the property taxes on their more valuable house, then it is to have a long commute from either Fort Bend county or Montgomery county. It is the difference between rising upward to wealth or sinking downward to the earth. I've noticed that Republicans flee to the suburbs. They consciously made their choice for lower taxes. They unconsciously also choose less wealth, but they can't see the connect to what they did to themselves. That's their problem, not mine. Charlie Munger told 'em, but he can't make 'em think.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, January 14, 2019 3:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, many people who work in Houston decide it is better to live in Houston, have a short commute to work and pay the property taxes on their more valuable house, then it is to have a long commute from either Fort Bend county or Montgomery county. It is the difference between rising upward to wealth or sinking downward to the earth. I've noticed that Republicans flee to the suburbs. They consciously made their choice for lower taxes. They unconsciously also choose less wealth, but they can't see the connect to what they did to themselves. That's their problem, not mine. Charlie Munger told 'em, but he can't make 'em think.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



Some people don't like Chicago. Not even to visit.

Believe it or not, there are a lot of people in the world who have no desire to be rich and as long as there is food on the table and a roof over their head they are happy.

You do a whole lot of telling people not to be stuck in their own way of thinking, but you sure do a lot of that yourself.

It might behoove you to develop some empathy. Maybe then you would understand why everybody doesn't think exactly the same way that you do.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, January 15, 2019 9:11 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


More info on Illinois property taxes:

Quote:

How Property Taxes in Illinois Work

Property tax assessments and collections in Illinois run on a roughly two-year cycle. In year one, local assessing official appraise real estate to determine a market value for each home in their area. The assessed value of property in most of Illinois is equal to 33.33% (one-third) of the market value of the residential property. In Cook County, however, the assessment ratio is 10% on residential property and 25% on commercial property.

After local officials calculate the assessed values of properties, county boards review these values to determine if they are correct. These county boards may equalize assessed values. If they find, for example, that the property in a certain district was appraised at half of its actual value, they will apply an equalization factor of 2, doubling the assessed value of everything in the district.

Property owners also have the opportunity to protest their assessed value before the county board. If a homeowner is not satisfied with the county board’s decision, they can appeal to the State Property Tax Appeal Board or even the circuit court.

The state of Illinois also equalizes values between counties by issuing an equalization factor for each county. This ensures that assessed property values in all counties are comparable.



Did you get that? Sounds like nobody knows what is going on and they can just raise rates wherever they want to because the entire system is so purposefully convoluted that nobody knows exactly what they're fighting.





In Indiana, the property taxes are based off of the assessed true market value of your home. None of this 33.3% or 10% of the value multiplied by an arbitrary equalizer value. On top of that, your property tax card lists out many details about individual pieces on your property and exactly what the township has them assessed at. Examples are livable space, air conditioning, permanent fixtures such as garages and patios, etc.

That being the case, it is actually possible to bring a legitimate grievance to your local assessor and work with them to rectify the situation.

A small example of the huge reduction in my own property taxes was when I was able to remove $3,500 off the assessed value by proving that I didn't have the central A/C unit the previous owners scrapped when they were foreclosed on. Another was when I proved that my back "patio" was just a bunch of paver bricks that I could remove tomorrow, which reduced the value a further $5,000.

I won't go into all the details here again. I've spoken about it in depth before. I'm just illustrating how easy it is to figure out when you're getting screwed on your tax card here when we're dealing with real numbers.





Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, January 17, 2019 5:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


https://www.unitedvanlines.com/contact-united/news/movers-study-2018



ST. LOUIS – Jan. 2, 2019 – Americans are on the move, relocating to western and southern parts of the country. The results of United Van Lines’ 42nd Annual National Movers Study, which tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns over the past year, revealed that more residents moved out of New Jersey than any other state in 2018, with 66.8 percent of New Jersey moves being outbound. The study also found that the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration was Vermont (72.6 percent), with 234 total moves. Oregon, which had 3,346 total moves, experienced the second highest percentage nationally, with 63.8 percent inbound moves.

States in the Mountain West and Pacific West regions, including Oregon, Idaho (62.4 percent), Nevada (61.8 percent), Washington (58.8 percent) and South Dakota (57 percent) continue to increase in popularity for inbound moves. In tune with this trend, Arizona (60.2 percent) joined the list of top 10 inbound states in 2018.

Several southern states also experienced high percentages of inbound migration, such as South Carolina (59.9 percent) and North Carolina (57 percent). United Van Lines determined the top reasons for moving south include job change (46.6 percent) and retirement (22.3 percent).

In the Northeast, however, an outbound moving trend continues. New Jersey (66.8 percent), Connecticut (62 percent) and New York (61.5 percent) were included among the top 10 outbound states for the fourth consecutive year. Midwestern states like Illinois (65.9 percent), Kansas (58.7 percent), Ohio (56.5 percent) and Iowa (55.5 percent) saw high outbound relocation as well.

“As the nation’s largest household goods mover, our study allows us to identify the most and least popular states for residential relocation throughout the country, year after year,” said Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines. “These findings accurately reflect not only where Americans are moving to and from, but also the reasons why.”

The National Movers Study reveals the business data of inbound and outbound moves from 2018. In addition to this study, United Van Lines also conducts a survey to find out more about the reasons behind these moves. A leading motivation behind these migration patterns across all regions is a career change, as the survey showed approximately one out of every two people who moved in the past year moved for a new job or company transfer. Other reasons for the high percentage of moves to the Mountain West in 2018 include retirement (28.1 percent), proximity to family (20.8 percent) and lifestyle change (19.4 percent). Compared to all other states, Idaho saw the largest influx of new residents desiring a lifestyle change (25.95 percent), and more people flocked to New Mexico for retirement than any other state (42.74 percent).

“The data collected by United Van Lines aligns with longer-term migration patterns to southern and western states, trends driven by factors like job growth, lower costs of living, state budgetary challenges and more temperate climates,” said Michael Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Unlike a few decades ago, retirees are leaving California, instead choosing other states in the Pacific West and Mountain West. We’re also seeing young professionals migrating to vibrant, metropolitan economies, like Washington, D.C. and Seattle.”

Moving In

The top inbound states of 2018 were:

Vermont
Oregon
Idaho
Nevada
Arizona
South Carolina
Washington
North Carolina
South Dakota
District of Columbia

New to the 2018 top inbound list are Arizona at No. 5 and District of Columbia at No. 10, with 60.2 percent and 56.7 percent inbound moves, respectively.

Moving Out

The top outbound states for 2018 were:

New Jersey
Illinois
Connecticut
New York
Kansas
Ohio
Massachusetts
Iowa
Montana
Michigan

New Jersey (66.8 percent), which has ranked in the top 10 for the past 10 years, moved up one spot on the outbound list to No. 1. New additions to the 2018 top outbound list include Iowa (55.5 percent), Montana (55 percent) and Michigan (55 percent).

Balanced

In several states, the number of residents moving inbound was approximately the same as the number moving outbound. Arkansas and Mississippi are among these “balanced states.”

Since 1977, United Van Lines has annually tracked migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2018 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

To view the entire 2018 study, an interactive map and archived press releases from United, visit the United Van Lines website.

Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to move to!
Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to retire!
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2018 National
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Press Release, Map and Data
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Thursday, January 17, 2019 8:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Thanks for posting SGG's article here.

I think that Second must have realized he was wrong since it's been a while without a reply. I'm alright with that. Glad I could teach him something.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, January 17, 2019 8:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Sales tax was something that I neglected to bring up for Illinois as well.

There's a base state rate of 6.25%, but local governments (county, city) are allowed to raise that another whopping 4.75% on top of that. Cook County, home of Chicago, is typically the highest in the state. My bro and my dad live where it's 10.5%.

Conversely, there is a flat 7% sales tax rate in Indiana. No local governments are allowed to raise this.

In addition to all of this, like in Wisconsin, unprepared food is not taxed in many parts of Indiana, although some local governments do tax it either 1 or 2%. NWI Lake County does not tax at all on food. However, ALL food is taxed at the local rate in Illinois (At least 6.25%, but as much as 11%).




EDIT: Regarding that last paragraph... Seems that the law on food tax in Illinois changed in the decade plus since I lived out of the state, likely in tandem with the original rate hikes, or later on to combat their severe impact on those living under the poverty level but not poor enough to be on food stamps (where there is no sales tax).

The full 6.25% is not charged by the state for food. It's only 1%. However, the local governments are still allowed to further tax it another 4.75% on top of that, for a maximum food sales tax of 5.75%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 18, 2019 2:27 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Sales tax was something that I neglected to bring up for Illinois as well.

There's a base state rate of 6.25%, but local governments (county, city) are allowed to raise that another whopping 4.75% on top of that. Cook County, home of Chicago, is typically the highest in the state. My bro and my dad live where it's 10.5%.

Conversely, there is a flat 7% sales tax rate in Indiana. No local governments are allowed to raise this.

In addition to all of this, like in Wisconsin, unprepared food is not taxed in many parts of Indiana, although some local governments do tax it either 1 or 2%. NWI Lake County does not tax at all on food. However, ALL food is taxed at the local rate in Illinois (At least 6.25%, but as much as 11%).




EDIT: Regarding that last paragraph... Seems that the law on food tax in Illinois changed in the decade plus since I lived out of the state, likely in tandem with the original rate hikes, or later on to combat their severe impact on those living under the poverty level but not poor enough to be on food stamps (where there is no sales tax).

The full 6.25% is not charged by the state for food. It's only 1%. However, the local governments are still allowed to further tax it another 4.75% on top of that, for a maximum food sales tax of 5.75%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Does Tax on "grocery" (aka unprepared food) still vary from County to County? I knew many States have different levels of Taxation on necessities, but I had assumed it was Statewide, yes or no. Hadn't really paid attention. I do believe WI is all Counties the same, no Tax on "grocery" and that rule unchanged for many Decades.


This is another example of local representation, rules made by the State, which supports State's Rights, not subject to Federal Regs. The people of the State decide/vote how they want to be screwed.
This is an important factor in some discussions of switching from Federal Income Tax to Consumption Tax. What would the Tax be applied to, what Consumption? Well, obviously, whatever the prevailing rules on Taxation were for each State. If State includes basic necessities like grocery in it's Tax Base, then the Consumption Tax would apply to that, for that State. This also makes the local or State level Elected Official more responsive to the Voter - you don't like paying 15% Consumption Tax on your grocery, you need to straighten out your State Legislature, vote in somebody with sense.
If the expenditures of poor folk such as grocery, bare housing, bare medical, basic education, mass transit are rendered untaxable, then truly poor folk become essentially untaxed. And if they feel the urgent need to be Taxed, they can purchase a Luxury Item, and pay the Tax just like anybody else.
If the State deems an item or category as Taxable, then that would be the rule for the Federal Government to apply the Consumption Tax. This makes the collection system truly piggyback - just include the Consumption Tax on each item already being processed with an existing Tax, no need for any monstrosity of administration to collect with - and IRS can wither away, not just shift function. And the IRS Budget and expense goes away, for even more Taxpayer's saving.




Anyway, back to second's claims. Do you see how the numbers he is claiming are really represented in the way you have laid out the actual numbers for IL and IN? Or are his numbers complete Manure? I cannot reconcile his numbers with any known reality, didn't know if you could.

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Friday, January 18, 2019 2:49 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://www.unitedvanlines.com/contact-united/news/movers-study-2018



ST. LOUIS – Jan. 2, 2019 – Americans are on the move, relocating to western and southern parts of the country. The results of United Van Lines’ 42nd Annual National Movers Study, which tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns over the past year, revealed that more residents moved out of New Jersey than any other state in 2018, with 66.8 percent of New Jersey moves being outbound. The study also found that the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration was Vermont (72.6 percent), with 234 total moves. Oregon, which had 3,346 total moves, experienced the second highest percentage nationally, with 63.8 percent inbound moves.

States in the Mountain West and Pacific West regions, including Oregon, Idaho (62.4 percent), Nevada (61.8 percent), Washington (58.8 percent) and South Dakota (57 percent) continue to increase in popularity for inbound moves. In tune with this trend, Arizona (60.2 percent) joined the list of top 10 inbound states in 2018.

Several southern states also experienced high percentages of inbound migration, such as South Carolina (59.9 percent) and North Carolina (57 percent). United Van Lines determined the top reasons for moving south include job change (46.6 percent) and retirement (22.3 percent).

In the Northeast, however, an outbound moving trend continues. New Jersey (66.8 percent), Connecticut (62 percent) and New York (61.5 percent) were included among the top 10 outbound states for the fourth consecutive year. Midwestern states like Illinois (65.9 percent), Kansas (58.7 percent), Ohio (56.5 percent) and Iowa (55.5 percent) saw high outbound relocation as well.

“As the nation’s largest household goods mover, our study allows us to identify the most and least popular states for residential relocation throughout the country, year after year,” said Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines. “These findings accurately reflect not only where Americans are moving to and from, but also the reasons why.”

The National Movers Study reveals the business data of inbound and outbound moves from 2018. In addition to this study, United Van Lines also conducts a survey to find out more about the reasons behind these moves. A leading motivation behind these migration patterns across all regions is a career change, as the survey showed approximately one out of every two people who moved in the past year moved for a new job or company transfer. Other reasons for the high percentage of moves to the Mountain West in 2018 include retirement (28.1 percent), proximity to family (20.8 percent) and lifestyle change (19.4 percent). Compared to all other states, Idaho saw the largest influx of new residents desiring a lifestyle change (25.95 percent), and more people flocked to New Mexico for retirement than any other state (42.74 percent).

“The data collected by United Van Lines aligns with longer-term migration patterns to southern and western states, trends driven by factors like job growth, lower costs of living, state budgetary challenges and more temperate climates,” said Michael Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Unlike a few decades ago, retirees are leaving California, instead choosing other states in the Pacific West and Mountain West. We’re also seeing young professionals migrating to vibrant, metropolitan economies, like Washington, D.C. and Seattle.”

Moving In

The top inbound states of 2018 were:

Vermont
Oregon
Idaho
Nevada
Arizona
South Carolina
Washington
North Carolina
South Dakota
District of Columbia

New to the 2018 top inbound list are Arizona at No. 5 and District of Columbia at No. 10, with 60.2 percent and 56.7 percent inbound moves, respectively.

Moving Out

The top outbound states for 2018 were:

New Jersey
Illinois
Connecticut
New York
Kansas
Ohio
Massachusetts
Iowa
Montana
Michigan

New Jersey (66.8 percent), which has ranked in the top 10 for the past 10 years, moved up one spot on the outbound list to No. 1. New additions to the 2018 top outbound list include Iowa (55.5 percent), Montana (55 percent) and Michigan (55 percent).

Balanced

In several states, the number of residents moving inbound was approximately the same as the number moving outbound. Arkansas and Mississippi are among these “balanced states.”

Since 1977, United Van Lines has annually tracked migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2018 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

To view the entire 2018 study, an interactive map and archived press releases from United, visit the United Van Lines website.

Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to move to!
Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to retire!
AddThis Sharing Buttons
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Follow us on:

Media Inquiry

For more information on United or if you are a member of the press and have questions/comments, please email our Director of Communications by clicking below:

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PRESS KIT:
United Van Lines
2018 National
Movers Study

Press Release, Map and Data
Download Now

Not much surprise on the Outbound list, all being overrun by Libtards. Except Montana, which would be reversing it's Decade trend of Inbound - not sure why that is changing for 2018.

Seems weird that CA, TX, FL are not on either list. VT is obviously folk escaping NY, MA, ME, CT, NJ.
Oregon and DC seem like outliers. Haven't seen DC listed elsewhere - who wants to move there?
They mention NM, but don't list it.

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Friday, January 18, 2019 3:17 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Adding in the Seats from Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20 P20 P19

CA 53 53 53 52 | 53 | 53
TX 32 36 38 38 | 39 | 38
NY 29 27 26 26 | 26 | 26
FL 25 27 28 29 | 29 | 29
I L 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17

PA 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17
OH 18 16 16 16 | 15 | 15
M I 15 14 13 13 | 13
GA 13 14 14 14 | 14
NC 13 13 14 14 | 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 | 12
VA 11 11 11 11 | 11
MA 10 09 09 09 | 09
WA 09 10 10 10 | 10
I N 09 09 09 09 | 09

TN 09 09 09 09 | 09
MO 09 08 08 08 | 08
AZ 08 09 10 09 | 10 | 10
MN 08 08 07 07 | 07
W I 08 08 08 08 | 08

MD 08 08 08 08 | 08
CO 07 07 08 08 | 08 | 08
AL 07 07 07 07 | 06 | 06
LA 07 06 06 06 | 06
SC 06 07 07 07 | 07

KY 06 06 06 06 | 06
OR 05 05 06 06 | 06
OK 05 05 05 05 | 05
CT 05 05 05 05 | 05
I A 05 04 04 04 | 04

MS 04 04 04 04 | 04
AR 04 04 04 04 | 04
KS 04 04 04 04 | 04
NE 03 03 03 03 | 03
UT 03 04 04 04 | 04

NV 03 04 04 04 | 04
NM 03 03 03 03 | 03
WV 03 03 02 02 | 02
I D 02 02 02 02 | 02
H I 02 02 02 02 | 02

ME 02 02 02 02 | 02
NH 02 02 02 02 | 02
R I 02 02 01 01 | 01
MT 01 01 01 02 | 01 | 02
DE 01 01 01 01 | 01

SD 01 01 01 01 | 01
AK 01 01 01 01 | 01
ND 01 01 01 01 | 01
VT 01 01 01 01 | 01
WY 01 01 01 01 | 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

Something I didn't really point out: one-time events do not help the accuracy of extrapolating Projection, so if Alabama does not suffer another catastrophic hurricane before the Census, it might not lose a Seat, and then CA would lose 1.
Regarding the new info from Van Lines Study, doesn't seem to greatly change the projections. OR is not in danger of gaining a Seat this decade, nor VT. The States on the verge of gaining or losing a Seat remain CA and MT. KS keeps churning out offspring, so is unlikely to lose a Seat - there are at least 17 other States more likely to drop a Seat before getting to KS.

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Friday, January 18, 2019 8:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Does Tax on "grocery" (aka unprepared food) still vary from County to County? I knew many States have different levels of Taxation on necessities, but I had assumed it was Statewide, yes or no. Hadn't really paid attention. I do believe WI is all Counties the same, no Tax on "grocery" and that rule unchanged for many Decades.



The article I read just before making that edit said that the "grocery" tax varies from area to area based off of what the local taxes on the unprepared food was. The only constant was that the state itself only charged 1% on unprepared food, but the local (county/city) taxes could raise it the same 4.75% that they can raise the sales tax on any other goods.

Actually, you answered a question of mine without me even asking it. I was wondering if the 0% tax on food was state-wide or if I just lucked out when I lived there. Good to hear they don't tax it anywhere there.

Quote:

This is another example of local representation, rules made by the State, which supports State's Rights, not subject to Federal Regs. The people of the State decide/vote how they want to be screwed.


Yep. Another example would be how when the state of Indiana made the Constitutional amendment to cap the property tax at 1%, they did see an increase in the overall sales tax at the same time. (I'm not sure what it was before that, as this all happened before I moved out here). It didn't faze me to pay 7%. That's actually the amount that sales taxes were the entire time I lived in Illinois growing up. It was only after I moved out that they raised them.

Illinois is broke. Their sugar drink tax backfired miserably, and was made even worse when people on food stamps didn't have to pay the tax when it's ridiculous that you can even by Pepsi with something that has "Nutritional" in the acronym. It's not at all surprising that they haven't removed soda like they did cigarettes and alcohol when you know that 10% of all grocery store purchases are made on food stamps and our politician's Overlords at the CocaCola company and PepsiCo would frown heavily upon that.

Now they're looking to either raise the vehicle license plate yearly fee by $500 or put a 30 cent increase on gas taxes to replace it.


Quote:

This is an important factor in some discussions of switching from Federal Income Tax to Consumption Tax. What would the Tax be applied to, what Consumption? Well, obviously, whatever the prevailing rules on Taxation were for each State. If State includes basic necessities like grocery in it's Tax Base, then the Consumption Tax would apply to that, for that State. This also makes the local or State level Elected Official more responsive to the Voter - you don't like paying 15% Consumption Tax on your grocery, you need to straighten out your State Legislature, vote in somebody with sense.


I'd be on board with that. But that's really easy for me to say. Other than food, I don't consume all that much. I made $12,500 last year (gross) and put around $6,000 of it in the bank. If I were to have avoided paying any income tax or sales tax on 90% of my purchases, I would probably have banked close to another $1,000. Add around another $1,000 if I didn't have to pay social security on any of it.


Quote:

If the expenditures of poor folk such as grocery, bare housing, bare medical, basic education, mass transit are rendered untaxable, then truly poor folk become essentially untaxed. And if they feel the urgent need to be Taxed, they can purchase a Luxury Item, and pay the Tax just like anybody else.


100% in agreement here.

It's one of the things I really appreciate about the vehicle tax and how that's set up in Indiana. If somebody wants to buy a brand new Toyota, they offset my property taxes by paying nearly $600 for their license that first year and it's pretty hefty the first 3-4 years after that too. Meanwhile, I'll drive my late 90's model Toyota and pay only $46 bucks, thank you very much.

Regarding "education" that is taken out of property taxes... I wouldn't go so far as to say that I should pay nothing, because I do agree that good schools in the neighborhood are an important part of keeping a good neighborhood. However, I do believe that my cost for them should be somewhat subsidized by people who actually have children currently in school or who have previously. These people are already getting tax breaks (most likely) for being married, as well as for the children themselves when they file their income taxes.

Quote:

If the State deems an item or category as Taxable, then that would be the rule for the Federal Government to apply the Consumption Tax. This makes the collection system truly piggyback - just include the Consumption Tax on each item already being processed with an existing Tax, no need for any monstrosity of administration to collect with - and IRS can wither away, not just shift function. And the IRS Budget and expense goes away, for even more Taxpayer's saving.


Sign me up.




Quote:

Anyway, back to second's claims. Do you see how the numbers he is claiming are really represented in the way you have laid out the actual numbers for IL and IN? Or are his numbers complete Manure? I cannot reconcile his numbers with any known reality, didn't know if you could.


I dunno what he's talking about. I figure he must have lived in Texas all of his life and he thinks the whole thing is done exactly the same, state by state. At least that's what I read.

It's obviously not the case, as I've laid it out.

I can't speak for the rest of Indiana, but we've got it pretty sweet up here in NWI. My town is literally a carbon copy of any town I've lived in, which were all suburbs of either Chicago or Milwaukee.

Since I have absolutely no desire to ever step foot in Chicago again, the fact that I live 30 extra minutes from the big city but pay a fraction of the property taxes I would pay on the same house if I was in Illinois bears no negative impact on my life. And because of all the other taxes in the world being cheaper here save for alcohol taxes are huge perks too.

Oh... and now that I'm sober, I don't have to waste all that gas driving to Illinois to get cheap beer either.


EDIT: Well... the one negative impact in my life for the tax savings is that I'm pretty far away from my niece and I don't get to see her nearly as much as I'd like to. But I am leaning heavily on them to move out here using the tax angle. :)

If I can get my transmission problem fixed this spring, that will be moot. I'd gladly pay the extra gas to go out and visit them every week when my car is more reliable.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, January 26, 2019 7:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


OK, I finally cleaned up the data columns a bit, for those last 2 Tables.

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Saturday, January 26, 2019 7:37 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Adding in the Seats from Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20 P20 P19

CA 53 53 53 52 | 53 | 53
TX 32 34 38 38 | 39 | 38
NY 29 27 26 26 | 26 | 26
FL 25 27 28 29 | 29 | 29
I L 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17

PA 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17
OH 18 16 16 16 | 15 | 15
M I 15 14 13 13 | 13
GA 13 14 14 14 | 14
NC 13 13 14 14 | 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 | 12
VA 11 11 11 11 | 11
MA 10 09 09 09 | 09
WA 09 10 10 10 | 10
I N 09 09 09 09 | 09

TN 09 09 09 09 | 09
MO 09 08 08 08 | 08
AZ 08 09 10 09 | 10 | 10
MN 08 08 07 07 | 07
W I 08 08 08 08 | 08

MD 08 08 08 08 | 08
CO 07 07 08 08 | 08 | 08
AL 07 07 07 07 | 06 | 06
LA 07 06 06 06 | 06
SC 06 07 07 07 | 07

KY 06 06 06 06 | 06
OR 05 05 06 06 | 06
OK 05 05 05 05 | 05
CT 05 05 05 05 | 05
I A 05 04 04 04 | 04

MS 04 04 04 04 | 04
AR 04 04 04 04 | 04
KS 04 04 04 04 | 04
NE 03 03 03 03 | 03
UT 03 04 04 04 | 04

NV 03 04 04 04 | 04
NM 03 03 03 03 | 03
WV 03 03 02 02 | 02
I D 02 02 02 02 | 02
H I 02 02 02 02 | 02

ME 02 02 02 02 | 02
NH 02 02 02 02 | 02
R I 02 02 01 01 | 01
MT 01 01 01 02 | 01 | 02
DE 01 01 01 01 | 01

SD 01 01 01 01 | 01
AK 01 01 01 01 | 01
ND 01 01 01 01 | 01
VT 01 01 01 01 | 01
WY 01 01 01 01 | 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

Regarding my question here, I see Detroit had an estimated loss of Population of 36,000 from 2010 to 2015. Check one for the cesspools.

ChicagoLand MSA was 9.46 million in 2010, up to 9.53 million estimated in 2013, down to 9.47 million estimated in 2015. Check another one for the cesspools. Extrapolation from 2013 to 2015 indicates about 9.38 million for 2018. This loss of 80,000 from 2010 to 2018 accounts for almost all of the 90,000 loss for the entire State.

NYC was 8.175 million in 2010, and estimated 8.622 million in 2017. Extrapolation of this data indicates about 8.814 by 2020. NYC is very overoptimistic about its Population growth, and ignores the year 2020, while focusing on 2030. This estimated Population growth of 511,000 for the City proper (2010-2018) compares to 164,000 for the whole State - implying 347,000 of NY State have left, but from outside NYC. I'm not familiar with the area, but this seems implausible.

Philadelphia (County) had 1.526 million in 2010, and 1.580 million estimated in 2017. Extrapolates for 1.588 million in 2018. Philadelphia MSA had 5.965 in 2010 and 6.096 million estimated in 2017.
Pittsburgh had 305,000 in 2010 and 302,000 estimated in 2017.
PA had Population growth of 104,000 from 2010 to the 2018 estimate. With Philly and Pitt combining for 59,000 of growth, these 2 cesspools are doing their share of holding back the State's Population growth.

So, 4 cesspools are the confirmed cause of loss, and NYC has highly suspect claims of Population and growth.

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Tuesday, February 5, 2019 4:19 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Another story from Forbes, from Allied Van Lines Survey.

10. Wisconsin

Total Moves: 3,285
Percentage Moving Out: 54.5%
Population: 5,795,500
Median Household Income: $58,550
Job Growth (2018): 1.2%

Wisconsin’s economy is driven by manufacturing, agriculture and healthcare. The state is also the nation’s leading producer of cheese. The job outlook has improved dramatically to roughly the U.S. average, versus No. 49 earlier in the decade.


9. Utah

Total Moves: 2,118
Percentage Moving Out: 55.7%
Population: 3,101,800
Median Household Income: $68,731
Job Growth (2018): 3.2%

Utah is well known for its winter activities and tourism has soared since the 2002 Winter Olympics. With two-thirds of Utahns being members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, Utah is the most religiously homogeneous state in the U.S.



8. Kentucky

Total Moves: 2,837
Percentage Moving Out: 56%
Population: 4,454,200
Median Household Income: $47,974
Job Growth (2018): 0.6%

Kentucky is best known for its horse racing, bourbon distilleries, automobile manufacturing, tobacco and college basketball. Horse racing is a $4 billion industry in the state and the Kentucky Derby Run for the Roses generates more than $400 million annually in economic impact for Kentucky. The state has more than 500 motor vehicle-related facilities that employ 100,000 workers.



7. Ohio

Total Moves: 6,684
Percentage Moving Out: 56.2%
Population: 11,658,600
Median Household Income: $54,106
Job Growth (2018): 1.4%

Manufacturing and financial services account for the largest sectors of Ohio’s $684 billion gross state product. The state is home to 49 of the 1,000 largest public and private companies in the U.S.



6. Massachusetts

Total Moves: 4,567
Percentage Moving Out: 56.3%
Population: 6,859,800
Median Household Income: $79,203
Job Growth (2018): 1.6%

Massachusetts’ business costs, including labor, energy and taxes, are the highest of the 48 contiguous states—only Hawaii is higher—at 19% above the national average. The Bay State benefits from a host of top-notch universities dumping thousands of highly educated graduates into its labor supply each year. Massachusetts ranks fourth on quality of life thanks to the state’s strong schools, bountiful arts and recreation opportunities, a healthy populous and a plethora of top-rated colleges.



5. Kansas

Total Moves: 2,370
Percentage Moving Out: 56.7%
Population: 2,913,100
Median Household Income: $56,823
Job Growth (2018): 1.4%

With several large aircraft corporations operating out of Kansas—including Boeing, Cessna, Learjet and Spirit AeroSystems—the state’s economy is heavily influenced by the aerospace industry. Kansas offers one of the best business incentive packages of programs in the country and the state scores points for its pro-business regulatory climate, which is tops in the nation, according to the Cato Institute.



4. Connecticut

Total Moves: 2,866
Percentage Moving Out: 57.1%
Population: 3,588,200
Median Household Income: $75,923
Job Growth (2018): 0.9%

Income inequality is huge in Connecticut, with the disparity most pronounced when comparing southern towns like New Canaan and Greenwich with Hartford, the state’s capital. Business costs are 10% higher than the national average, due in part to energy costs that are 62% higher. The Nutmeg State rates fifth overall in quality of life thanks to low crime and poverty rates, a healthy populous and strong schools. But the regulatory climate and fiscal health rank among the worst in the nation.



3. New York

Total Moves: 8,381
Percentage Moving Out: 60.6%
Population: 19,849,400
Median Household Income: $64,888
Job Growth (2018): 1.1%

New York City dominates the economy of the state as the leading center of advertising, banking, finance, media and publishing in the U.S. If New York were a country, the state’s $1.7 trillion-dollar economy would be the 11th largest in the world after Canada. The business climate of the state, however, is one of extremes. New York’s taxes, union workforce and red tape are among the highest in the country. On the plus side: the Empire state is an economic force comprised of an educated labor pool, huge VC investment, significant cultural and recreation resources and the headquarters of 10% of the 1000 largest companies in the U.S.



2. New Jersey

Total Moves: 4,723
Percentage Moving Out: 62.9%
Population: 9,005,600
Median Household Income: $79,488
Job Growth (2018): 1.5%

New Jersey’s economy is centered on pharmaceuticals, financial services, telecommunications, food processing and tourism. It also benefits as bedroom communities for both Philadelphia and New York. Though business and living costs are among the nation’s highest, New Jersey compensates by having one of the most educated labor forces. New Jersey scores poorly for its regulatory climate and fiscal health.


1. Illinois

Total Moves: 8,157
Percentage Moving Out: 63.4%
Population: 12,802,000
Median Household Income: $62,881
Job Growth (2018): 0.9%

Illinois is home to 69 of the 1,000 biggest companies in the U.S. by revenue—fourth most among states. They include Boeing, Abbott Labs, Caterpillar and Kraft Foods. However, the net migration rate out of the state remains high and projected population growth is negative.


The Top Inbound States of 2017

10. Alabama
Net Migration (2017): 14,400
Population: 4,874,700
Median Household Income: $47,494
Job Growth (2018): 1.1%

The largest employer in the state is the U.S. Army base of Redstone Arsenal near Huntsville, Ala. With dozens of suppliers setting up facilities in Alabama, including Honda Motor, Hyundai Motor, Mercedes-Benz and Toyota Motor, the state has become a hub for automotive activity over the last two decades. Business tax costs are 18% below the national average in Alabama, according to Moody’s Analytics, and the state offers a very pro-business incentive climate.



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Tuesday, February 5, 2019 4:19 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Another story from Forbes, from Allied Van Lines Survey.
The Moving Out list seems vastly different from other lists of this type, and seems to of different format than the Moving In list.
I will try to add some data at the end of each entry of Moving Out list, the published list ends each entry at the end of the paragraph.
I have no idea where the Population figures from the story came from.

10. Wisconsin
Total Moves: 3,285
Percentage Moving Out: 54.5%
Population: 5,795,500
Median Household Income: $58,550
Job Growth (2018): 1.2%
Wisconsin’s economy is driven by manufacturing, agriculture and healthcare. The state is also the nation’s leading producer of cheese. The job outlook has improved dramatically to roughly the U.S. average, versus No. 49 earlier in the decade.

Net move out: 296
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 622. Percent of population: 0.010%


9. Utah
Total Moves: 2,118
Percentage Moving Out: 55.7%
Population: 3,101,800
Median Household Income: $68,731
Job Growth (2018): 3.2%
Utah is well known for its winter activities and tourism has soared since the 2002 Winter Olympics. With two-thirds of Utahns being members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, Utah is the most religiously homogeneous state in the U.S.

Net move out: 241
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 507. Percent of population: 0.016%


8. Kentucky
Total Moves: 2,837
Percentage Moving Out: 56%
Population: 4,454,200
Median Household Income: $47,974
Job Growth (2018): 0.6%
Kentucky is best known for its horse racing, bourbon distilleries, automobile manufacturing, tobacco and college basketball. Horse racing is a $4 billion industry in the state and the Kentucky Derby Run for the Roses generates more than $400 million annually in economic impact for Kentucky. The state has more than 500 motor vehicle-related facilities that employ 100,000 workers.

Net move out: 340
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 715. Percent of population: 0.016%


7. Ohio
Total Moves: 6,684
Percentage Moving Out: 56.2%
Population: 11,658,600
Median Household Income: $54,106
Job Growth (2018): 1.4%
Manufacturing and financial services account for the largest sectors of Ohio’s $684 billion gross state product. The state is home to 49 of the 1,000 largest public and private companies in the U.S.

Net move out: 829
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 1741. Percent of population: 0.015%


6. Massachusetts
Total Moves: 4,567
Percentage Moving Out: 56.3%
Population: 6,859,800
Median Household Income: $79,203
Job Growth (2018): 1.6%
Massachusetts’ business costs, including labor, energy and taxes, are the highest of the 48 contiguous states—only Hawaii is higher—at 19% above the national average. The Bay State benefits from a host of top-notch universities dumping thousands of highly educated graduates into its labor supply each year. Massachusetts ranks fourth on quality of life thanks to the state’s strong schools, bountiful arts and recreation opportunities, a healthy populous and a plethora of top-rated colleges.

Net move out: 575
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 1208. Percent of population: 0.018%


5. Kansas
Total Moves: 2,370
Percentage Moving Out: 56.7%
Population: 2,913,100
Median Household Income: $56,823
Job Growth (2018): 1.4%
With several large aircraft corporations operating out of Kansas—including Boeing, Cessna, Learjet and Spirit AeroSystems—the state’s economy is heavily influenced by the aerospace industry. Kansas offers one of the best business incentive packages of programs in the country and the state scores points for its pro-business regulatory climate, which is tops in the nation, according to the Cato Institute.

Net move out: 318
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 667. Percent of population: 0.023%


4. Connecticut
Total Moves: 2,866
Percentage Moving Out: 57.1%
Population: 3,588,200
Median Household Income: $75,923
Job Growth (2018): 0.9%
Income inequality is huge in Connecticut, with the disparity most pronounced when comparing southern towns like New Canaan and Greenwich with Hartford, the state’s capital. Business costs are 10% higher than the national average, due in part to energy costs that are 62% higher. The Nutmeg State rates fifth overall in quality of life thanks to low crime and poverty rates, a healthy populous and strong schools. But the regulatory climate and fiscal health rank among the worst in the nation.

Net move out: 407
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 855. Percent of population: 0.024%


3. New York
Total Moves: 8,381
Percentage Moving Out: 60.6%
Population: 19,849,400
Median Household Income: $64,888
Job Growth (2018): 1.1%
New York City dominates the economy of the state as the leading center of advertising, banking, finance, media and publishing in the U.S. If New York were a country, the state’s $1.7 trillion-dollar economy would be the 11th largest in the world after Canada. The business climate of the state, however, is one of extremes. New York’s taxes, union workforce and red tape are among the highest in the country. On the plus side: the Empire state is an economic force comprised of an educated labor pool, huge VC investment, significant cultural and recreation resources and the headquarters of 10% of the 1000 largest companies in the U.S.

Net move out: 1777
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 3731. Percent of population: 0.019%


2. New Jersey
Total Moves: 4,723
Percentage Moving Out: 62.9%
Population: 9,005,600
Median Household Income: $79,488
Job Growth (2018): 1.5%
New Jersey’s economy is centered on pharmaceuticals, financial services, telecommunications, food processing and tourism. It also benefits as bedroom communities for both Philadelphia and New York. Though business and living costs are among the nation’s highest, New Jersey compensates by having one of the most educated labor forces. New Jersey scores poorly for its regulatory climate and fiscal health.

Net move out: 1219
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 2559. Percent of population: 0.028%


1. Illinois
Total Moves: 8,157
Percentage Moving Out: 63.4%
Population: 12,802,000
Median Household Income: $62,881
Job Growth (2018): 0.9%
Illinois is home to 69 of the 1,000 biggest companies in the U.S. by revenue—fourth most among states. They include Boeing, Abbott Labs, Caterpillar and Kraft Foods. However, the net migration rate out of the state remains high and projected population growth is negative.

Net move out: 2186
At 2.1 persons per family, net move out persons: 4591. Percent of population: 0.036%



The Top Inbound States of 2017

10. Alabama
Net Migration (2017): 14,400
Population: 4,874,700
Median Household Income: $47,494
Job Growth (2018): 1.1%

The largest employer in the state is the U.S. Army base of Redstone Arsenal near Huntsville, Ala. With dozens of suppliers setting up facilities in Alabama, including Honda Motor, Hyundai Motor, Mercedes-Benz and Toyota Motor, the state has become a hub for automotive activity over the last two decades. Business tax costs are 18% below the national average in Alabama, according to Moody’s Analytics, and the state offers a very pro-business incentive climate.


9. Colorado
Net Migration (2017): 39,200
Population: 5,607,200
Median Household Income: $68,188
Job Growth (2018): 2.7%

Colorado has a young, educated labor supply and a migrating population that is attracted to its robust economy and outdoor recreational opportunities. At 41%, Colorado adults have the second highest level of college attainment, behind only Massachusetts. The percent of the population age 25-34 is also second highest in the U.S. Colorado is expected to have the second fastest job growth over the next five years, per Emsi data.


8. North Carolina
Net Migration (2017): 97,500
Population: 10,273,400
Median Household Income: $52,707
Job Growth (2018): 2.1%

With one of the highest net migration rates in the U.S., people have been flocking to North Carolina for the past decade. The state has the second smallest union workforce in the U.S. in terms of percent of total employment (South Carolina is first). The resulting benefit is labor costs that are 9% below the national average—sixth lowest in the country. North Carolina has ranked in the top five overall for 14 straight years.


7. South Carolina
Net Migration (2017): 50,100
Population: 5,024,400
Median Household Income: $51,671
Job Growth (2018): 1.9%

Like its neighbor North Carolina, South Carolina has experienced massive net migration into the state over the past five years—resulting in the third highest rate in the U.S. The state has been a big proponent of using incentives to lure foreign investment and U.S. companies alike. The Palmetto State’s economy also benefits from its status as a right-to-work state. South Carolina has the lowest union membership as a percentage of its workforce in the country at just 2.6%.


6. Washington
Net Migration (2017): 64,500
Population: 7,405,700
Median Household Income: $69,915
Job Growth (2018): 2.9%

A cradle for innovation, Washington is the birthplace for a spectrum of iconic companies, including Microsoft, Amazon.com, Nordstrom, Starbucks, Boeing and Costco. Venture capitalists are always searching for the next great Washington company, pouring $4.6 billion of VC money—fifth most in the U.S.—into the state between 2014 and 2016.


5. South Dakota
Net Migration (2017): 900
Population: 869,700
Median Household Income: $55,919
Job Growth (2018): 1.2%

South Dakota’s business costs are the second lowest in the country at 15% below the national average. Retail, finance, and healthcare make up the primary service industries in the state. In 1981, Citibank established significant operations in South Dakota in order to take advantage of its favorable banking regulations; the company employs more than 3,000 people today in the state.


4. Nevada
Net Migration (2017): 47,900
Population: 2,998,000
Median Household Income: $57,787
Job Growth (2018): 3.2%

While mining remains a substantial sector of its economy, tourism reigns as Nevada’s chief employer. Nevada’s unemployment rate over the past five years has been the worst in the country, although it is down to 4.6% from 13% in 2011. Irrespective of this fact, people continue to flock to the state with Nevada expected to have the highest population growth through 2021. People are chasing jobs with the state projected by Moody’s Analytics to have the second fastest employment growth during that time.


3. Idaho
Net Migration (2017): 17,400
Population: 1,716,900
Median Household Income: $54,524
Job Growth (2018): 3.1%

Idaho’s major industries include food processing, lumber/wood products, chemicals, paper, mining and tourism. The state produces nearly one-third of the potatoes grown in the U.S. One of the biggest sectors is science and technology led by semiconductor maker Micron Technology. Other companies with a major tech presence in Idaho include Oracle, Hewlett-Packard and ON Semiconductor. Idaho’s energy costs are fourth lowest in the U.S. at 20% below the national average.


2. Oregon
Net Migration (2017): 28,800
Population: 4,142,800
Median Household Income: $60,073
Job Growth (2018): 2.3%

The outlook in Oregon is bright. Household incomes are expected to rise faster than any other state over the next five years and job growth is projected by Moody’s Analytics to be seventh best. By revenue, Beaverton, Ore.-based Nike is three times larger than the next biggest Oregon company. The sportswear giant has sales of $36 billion and projects $50 billion by 2023. Nike’s founder, Phil Knight, is worth $30 billion and is 13 times richer than anyone else in the state.


1. Vermont
Net Migration (2017): -300
Population: 623,700
Median Household Income: $58,562
Job Growth (2018): 0%

At $34 billion, Vermont has the smallest economy in the U.S. Its five-year average unemployment rate of 3.6% was the fifth lowest among states, but Vermont suffers from business costs that are 12% above the national average. The state’s economic outlook is also weak with job and income growth expected to badly lag the rest of the country over the next five years. Vermont is the leading producer of maple syrup in the country.

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Monday, February 18, 2019 12:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


1960 was the last Census which found NY most populous. CA was ranked 2nd, TX was 6th, FL was 10th. MA was 9th.

NY was awarded 41 Seats and CA was allowed 38 Seats in The House.

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Tuesday, April 30, 2019 12:09 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I think this year's census estimate comes out in June, so I should check the figures here in case I forgot something.

This is a reminder to me.


Another thread is 62878.

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Tuesday, May 28, 2019 8:29 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is percent change from Labor Force of March 2018 to March 2019.
Fifth column is Projected Population for 2019.
Sixth column is 2019 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population. (and subtotal)
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popul 2018 Popul | %Chng 2019 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 39,557,045 | +0.95 39,931,485 | 52 52/052 760634/(436)
TX 36 25,146,105 28,701,846 | +1.74 29,200,660 | 39 38/090 758522
NY 27 19,378,087 19,542,209 | +0.39 19,617,851 | 25 25/143 769475/433
FL 27 18,804,623 21,299,325 | +1.09 21,531,733 | 29 28/118 755598/432
IL 18 12,831,549 12,741,080 | +0.04 12,745,989 | 16 16/175 772839/431

PA 18 12,702,887 12,807,060 | +1.18 12,957,820 | 16 16/159 785683/425
OH 16 11,536,725 11,689,442 | +1.23 11,832,858 | 15 15/190 763807/435
MI 14 09,884,129 09,998,915 | -0.77 09,921,866 | 13 13/229 735457
GA 14 09,688,681 10,519,475 | -0.21 10,497,522 | 14 13/216 778128/427
NC 13 09,535,692 10,383,620 | +1.58 10,547,657 | 14 13/203 781844/426

NJ 12 08,791,936 09,032,873 | +0.84 09,108,816 | 12 11/240 792820/424
VA 11 08,001,045 08,517,685 | +0.86 08,591,030 | 11 11/251 747753
WA 10 06,724,543 07,535,591 | +3.24 07,779,673 | 11 10/261 741762
MA 09 06,547,817 06,902,149 | +1.53 07,007,750 | 09 09/279 738681
IN 09 06,484,229 06,691,878 | +1.58 06,797,584 | 09 08/296 801102/422

AZ 09 06,392,307 07,171,646 | +2.84 07,375,566 | 10 09/270 777452/428
TN 09 06,346,275 06,770,010 | +2.91 06,967,049 | 09 09/288
MO 08 05,988,927 06,126,452 | -0.46 06,134,331 | 08 08/304 722937
MD 08 05,773,785 06,042,718 | +0.45 06,069,668 | 08 08/312
WI 08 05,687,289 05,813,568 | -0.44 05,788,277 | 08 07/326 773491/429

MN 08 05,303,925 05,611,179 | +1.07 05,671,216 | 07 07/333 757848
CO 07 05,029,324 05,695,564 | +2.17 05,818,329 | 07 07/319 +/414
AL 07 04,780,127 04,887,871 | +1.65 04,968,638 | 06 06/345 766677/434
SC 07 04,625,401 05,084,127 | +2.40 05,206,181 | 07 06/339 803331/421
LA 06 04,533,479 04,659,978 | -0.65 04,629,832 | 06 06/351

KY 06 04,339,349 04,468,402 | +0.49 04,490,281 | 06 05/356 819809/419
OR 05 03,831,073 04,190,713 | +1.03 04,233,862 | 05 05/361 772993/430
OK 05 03,751,616 03,943,079 | -1.24 03,893,990 | 05 05/366
CT 05 03,574,118 03,572,665 | +0.91 03,605,262 | 04 04/370 805161/420
IA 04 03,046,869 03,156,145 | +2.21 03,226,012 | 04 04/378

MS 04 02,968,103 02,986,530 | -1.25 02,949,220 | 04 03/388 851366/417
AR 04 02,915,958 03,013,825 | +0.67 03,034,020 | 04 03/385 875846/415
KS 04 02,853,132 02,911,505 | -0.04 02,910,353 | 04 03/391 840146/418
UT 04 02,763,888 03,161,105 | +1.44 03,206,655 | 04 04/374
NV 04 02,700,691 03,034,392 | +2.08 03,097,394 | 04 04/382

NM 03 02,059,192 02,095,428 | +1.88 02,134,825 | 03 02/393 871538/416
WV 03 01,853,011 01,805,832 | +0.90 01,822,065 | 02 02/397 743854
NE 03 01,826,341 01,929,268 | +1.69 01,961,874 | 02 02/395 800931/423
ID 02 01,567,652 01,774,208 | +2.30 01,815,099 | 02 02/399
HI 02 01,360,301 01,420,491 | -1.83 01,394,502 | 02 01/400 986061/411

ME 02 01,328,361 01,338,404 | -0.62 01,330,150 | 02 01/402 940558/413
NH 02 01,316,466 01,356,458 | +0.89 01,368,489 | 02 01/401 +/412
RI 02 01,052,931 01,057,315 | -1.09 01,045,742 | 02 01/404 739451
MT 01 00,989,417 01,062,305 | +0.64 01,069,154 | 02 01/403 756006
DE 01 00,897,936 00,967,171 | +1.47 00,981,373 | 01 01/405

SD 01 00,814,191 00,882,235 | +1.46 00,895,132 | 01 01/406
AK 01 00,710,249 00,737,438 | -1.16 00,728,890 | 01 01/408
ND 01 00,672,591 00,760,077 | +0.22 00,761,756 | 01 01/407
VT 01 00,625,745 00,626,299 | -0.43 00,623,588 | 01 01/409
WY 01 00,563,767 00,577,737 | -0.18 00,576,689 | 01 01/410

T 435 308156338 326464979 |


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
For this projection of 2019, I am including FL as gaining it's 29th Seat although the number doesn't show it, because the large retirement population there seems to not translate to the Labor Force figures. If FL did not gain this 29th Seat, CA would keep it's 53rd Seat under this projection.
This projection for 2019, if the Census was held now and Apportionment was delegated from it: CA, RI, WV, MN, MI, PA, IL, NY each loses a seat. OR, CO, AZ, NC, each gains a seat. FL and TX each gain 2 seats.
The last Seats go to IL, NY, AL, OH. Those missing the cut are CA, TX, MN, MT.

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Saturday, June 1, 2019 4:47 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



I will further extrapolate the same Trump Economy trends into the Projected 2020 Population.

The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019. And 8,023,754 for 2020.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019. And 2,911,910 for 2020.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is percent change from Labor Force of March 2018 to March 2019.
Fifth column is Projected Population for 2020 - adding the same amount as the prior year.
Sixth column is 2020 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population. (and subtotal)
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popul 2018 Popul | %Chng 2020 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 39,557,045 | +0.95 40,305,924 | 52 52/052 767766/(436)
TX 36 25,146,105 28,701,846 | +1.74 29,699,474 | 39 38/090 771480/434
NY 27 19,378,087 19,542,209 | +0.39 19,693,493 | 25 25/143 772442/433
FL 27 18,804,623 21,299,325 | +1.09 21,763,141 | 29 28/118 763736/
IL 18 12,831,549 12,741,080 | +0.04 12,750,898 | 16 16/175 773136/431

PA 18 12,702,887 12,807,060 | +1.18 13,108,580 | 16 16/159 794824/426
OH 16 11,536,725 11,689,442 | +1.23 11,976,274 | 15 15/190 773065/432
MI 14 09,884,129 09,998,915 | -0.77 09,844,817 | 13 13/229
GA 14 09,688,681 10,519,475 | -0.21 10,475,569 | 14 13/216 776500/430
NC 13 09,535,692 10,383,620 | +1.58 10,711,694 | 14 13/203 794003/427

NJ 12 08,791,936 09,032,873 | +0.84 09,184,759 | 12 11/240 799430/424
VA 11 08,001,045 08,517,685 | +0.86 08,665,375 | 11 11/251
WA 10 06,724,543 07,535,591 | +3.24 08,023,754 | 11 10/261 765034
MA 09 06,547,817 06,902,149 | +1.53 07,113,351 | 09 09/279 749813
IN 09 06,484,229 06,691,878 | +1.58 06,903,290 | 09 08/296 813560/422

AZ 09 06,392,307 07,171,646 | +2.84 07,579,486 | 10 09/270 798948/425
TN 09 06,346,275 06,770,010 | +2.91 07,164,088 | 09 09/288 755161
MO 08 05,988,927 06,126,452 | -0.46 06,106,210 | 08 08/304 719623
MD 08 05,773,785 06,042,718 | +0.45 06,096,618 | 08 08/312
WI 08 05,687,289 05,813,568 | -0.44 05,762,986 | 08 07/326 770111/435

MN 08 05,303,925 05,611,179 | +1.07 05,731,259 | 07 07/333 765871
CO 07 05,029,324 05,695,564 | +2.17 05,933,094 | 07 07/319 +/419
AL 07 04,780,127 04,887,871 | +1.65 05,049,405 | 06 06/345 779140/429
SC 07 04,625,401 05,084,127 | +2.40 05,328,235 | 07 06/339 822164/420
LA 06 04,533,479 04,659,978 | -0.65 04,599,686 | 06 06/351

KY 06 04,339,349 04,468,402 | +0.49 04,512,160 | 06 05/356 +/418
OR 05 03,831,073 04,190,713 | +1.03 04,277,011 | 05 05/361 780871/428
OK 05 03,751,616 03,943,079 | -1.24 03,844,801 | 05 05/366
CT 05 03,574,118 03,572,665 | +0.91 03,637,859 | 04 04/370 813450/423
IA 04 03,046,869 03,156,145 | +2.21 03,295,879 | 04 04/378 736980

MS 04 02,968,103 02,986,530 | -1.25 02,911,910 | 04 03/388 +/416
AR 04 02,915,958 03,013,825 | +0.67 03,054,215 | 04 03/385 +/414
KS 04 02,853,132 02,911,505 | -0.04 02,909,201 | 04 03/391 839813/417
UT 04 02,763,888 03,161,105 | +1.44 03,252,205 | 04 04/374
NV 04 02,700,691 03,034,392 | +2.08 03,160,396 | 04 04/382

NM 03 02,059,192 02,095,428 | +1.88 02,174,222 | 03 02/393 +/415
WV 03 01,853,011 01,805,832 | +0.90 01,838,298 | 02 02/397
NE 03 01,826,341 01,929,268 | +1.69 01,994,480 | 02 02/395 814243/421
ID 02 01,567,652 01,774,208 | +2.30 01,855,990 | 02 02/399 757704
HI 02 01,360,301 01,420,491 | -1.83 01,368,513 | 02 01/400 +/412

ME 02 01,328,361 01,338,404 | -0.62 01,321,896 | 02 01/402 +/413
NH 02 01,316,466 01,356,458 | +0.89 01,380,520 | 02 01/401 +/411
RI 02 01,052,931 01,057,315 | -1.09 01,034,169 | 02 01/404
MT 01 00,989,417 01,062,305 | +0.64 01,076,003 | 02 01/403 760849
DE 01 00,897,936 00,967,171 | +1.47 00,995,575 | 01 01/405

SD 01 00,814,191 00,882,235 | +1.46 00,908,029 | 01 01/406
AK 01 00,710,249 00,737,438 | -1.16 00,720,342 | 01 01/408
ND 01 00,672,591 00,760,077 | +0.22 00,763,435 | 01 01/407
VT 01 00,625,745 00,626,299 | -0.43 00,620,877 | 01 01/409
WY 01 00,563,767 00,577,737 | -0.18 00,575,641 | 01 01/410

T 435 308156338 326464979 |


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
For this projection of 2020 Census, which seems to be based upon the most current trends available: If FL is not getting a 29th Seat, then IL, OH, NY, TX, WI are the last 5 Seats Apportioned. After the cut are CA, MN, WA, FL, MT.

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Saturday, June 8, 2019 4:28 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Gee whiz, without adequate login ability, it takes forever to update this info.


I did notice some things when I was going thru the data.

Using the Census estimate from July 2018, and comparing the Labor Force for March 2018, it seems many States have only about half of their population counted in the Labor Force.

States with more than 50% of their population counted in the Labor Force: VA, WA, MA, IN, MD, WI, MN, CO, CT, IA, KS, NE, ME, NH, RI, SD, ND, VT.
The other 32 States have less than half of their population counted in the Labor Force. That is Civilian Labor Force, so perhaps Military bases might have some effect on those figures.

Outliers: VT 55.4%, MA 54.7%, MN 54.5%, WI 53.9%, MS 42.7%, WV 43.0%, NM 44.5%, AR 44.7%, AL 45.0%.

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Saturday, June 8, 2019 4:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Adding in the Seats from these newlt Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 19 20

CA 53 53 53 52 52
TX 32 36 38 38 39
NY 29 27 26 26 26
FL 25 27 28 29 28
IL 19 18 17 17 17

PA 19 18 17 17 17
OH 18 16 16 16 16
MI 15 14 13 13 13
GA 13 14 14 14 14
NC 13 13 14 14 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 12
VA 11 11 11 11 11
MA 10 09 09 09 09
WA 09 10 10 10 10
IN 09 09 09 09 09

TN 09 09 09 09 09
MO 09 08 08 08 08
AZ 08 09 10 10 10
MN 08 08 07 07 07
WI 08 08 08 08 08

MD 08 08 08 08 08
CO 07 07 08 08 08
AL 07 07 07 07 07
LA 07 06 06 06 06
SC 06 07 07 07 07

KY 06 06 06 06 06
OR 05 05 06 06 06
OK 05 05 05 05 05
CT 05 05 05 05 05
IA 05 04 04 04 04

MS 04 04 04 04 04
AR 04 04 04 04 04
KS 04 04 04 04 04
NE 03 03 03 03 03
UT 03 04 04 04 04

NV 03 04 04 04 04
NM 03 03 03 03 03
WV 03 03 02 02 02
ID 02 02 02 02 02
HI 02 02 02 02 02

ME 02 02 02 02 02
NH 02 02 02 02 02
RI 02 02 01 01 01
MT 01 01 01 01 01
DE 01 01 01 01 01

SD 01 01 01 01 01
AK 01 01 01 01 01
ND 01 01 01 01 01
VT 01 01 01 01 01
WY 01 01 01 01 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

Something I didn't really point out: one-time events do not help the accuracy of extrapolating Projection, so if Alabama does not suffer another catastrophic hurricane before the Census, it might not lose a Seat, and then CA would lose 1.

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Monday, June 10, 2019 7:03 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


So, if those projections hold up, then the only difference from now until Census next year is that TX will gain a Seat - from CA - and if FL gains another Seat, WI loses one.


As well, no State which lost a Seat in 2010 Census is looking like they will gain back a Seat.

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Saturday, January 4, 2020 4:14 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Census had a press release on 30 Dec 2019. They dodged and weaved around the facts, but some data could be discerned from it. I have not yet found a set of actual raw data from them. This is all a report of the Census data for 1 July 2019.


https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html


Here I have copied a prior table, where I extrapolated the projected 1 July Population figures, and I will add a last column or 2 which reflect the data that was just provided.


Well, now that I've filled out the portions of data that they've provided, I can see that none of the numbers add up. The figures that they had for 2018 and now for 2019, the differences do not add to what they state are the differences. So maybe they revised some data from last year. I'll need to look into this.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is percent change from Labor Force of March 2018 to March 2019.
Fifth column is Projected Population for 2019.
Sixth column is 2019 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population. (and subtotal)
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.



ST #R 2010 Popul 2018 Popul | %Chng 2019 Projd | Actual 2019 Pop/change
CA 53 37,252,895 39,557,045 | +0.95 39,931,485 | 39,512,223
TX 36 25,146,105 28,701,846 | +1.74 29,200,660 | 28,995,881
NY 27 19,378,087 19,542,209 | +0.39 19,617,851 | 19,453,561/ -76,790
FL 27 18,804,623 21,299,325 | +1.09 21,531,733 | 21,477,737
IL 18 12,831,549 12,741,080 | +0.04 12,745,989 | 12,671,821/ -51,250

PA 18 12,702,887 12,807,060 | +1.18 12,957,820 | 12,801,989
OH 16 11,536,725 11,689,442 | +1.23 11,832,858 | 11,689,100
MI 14 09,884,129 09,998,915 | -0.77 09,921,866 | 09,986,857
GA 14 09,688,681 10,519,475 | -0.21 10,497,522 | 10,617,423
NC 13 09,535,692 10,383,620 | +1.58 10,547,657 | 10,488,084

NJ 12 08,791,936 09,032,873 | +0.84 09,108,816 | /-3,835
VA 11 08,001,045 08,517,685 | +0.86 08,591,030 |
WA 10 06,724,543 07,535,591 | +3.24 07,779,673 | 07,614,893
MA 09 06,547,817 06,902,149 | +1.53 07,007,750 |
IN 09 06,484,229 06,691,878 | +1.58 06,797,584 |

AZ 09 06,392,307 07,171,646 | +2.84 07,375,566 | 07,278,717
TN 09 06,346,275 06,770,010 | +2.91 06,967,049 | 06,829,174
MO 08 05,988,927 06,126,452 | -0.46 06,134,331 |
MD 08 05,773,785 06,042,718 | +0.45 06,069,668 |
WI 08 05,687,289 05,813,568 | -0.44 05,788,277 |

MN 08 05,303,925 05,611,179 | +1.07 05,671,216 |
CO 07 05,029,324 05,695,564 | +2.17 05,818,329 | 05,758,736
AL 07 04,780,127 04,887,871 | +1.65 04,968,638 |
SC 07 04,625,401 05,084,127 | +2.40 05,206,181 | 05,148,714
LA 06 04,533,479 04,659,978 | -0.65 04,629,832 | /-10,896

KY 06 04,339,349 04,468,402 | +0.49 04,490,281 |
OR 05 03,831,073 04,190,713 | +1.03 04,233,862 |
OK 05 03,751,616 03,943,079 | -1.24 03,893,990 |
CT 05 03,574,118 03,572,665 | +0.91 03,605,262 | /-6,233
IA 04 03,046,869 03,156,145 | +2.21 03,226,012 |

MS 04 02,968,103 02,986,530 | -1.25 02,949,220 | /-4,871
AR 04 02,915,958 03,013,825 | +0.67 03,034,020 |
KS 04 02,853,132 02,911,505 | -0.04 02,910,353 |
UT 04 02,763,888 03,161,105 | +1.44 03,206,655 | 03,205,958
NV 04 02,700,691 03,034,392 | +2.08 03,097,394 | 03,080,156

NM 03 02,059,192 02,095,428 | +1.88 02,134,825 |
WV 03 01,853,011 01,805,832 | +0.90 01,822,065 | /-12,144
NE 03 01,826,341 01,929,268 | +1.69 01,961,874 |
ID 02 01,567,652 01,774,208 | +2.30 01,815,099 | 01,787,065
HI 02 01,360,301 01,420,491 | -1.83 01,394,502 | /-4,721

ME 02 01,328,361 01,338,404 | -0.62 01,330,150 |
NH 02 01,316,466 01,356,458 | +0.89 01,368,489 |
RI 02 01,052,931 01,057,315 | -1.09 01,045,742 |
MT 01 00,989,417 01,062,305 | +0.64 01,069,154 |
DE 01 00,897,936 00,967,171 | +1.47 00,981,373 |

SD 01 00,814,191 00,882,235 | +1.46 00,895,132 |
AK 01 00,710,249 00,737,438 | -1.16 00,728,890 | /-3,594
ND 01 00,672,591 00,760,077 | +0.22 00,761,756 |
VT 01 00,625,745 00,626,299 | -0.43 00,623,588 | /-369
WY 01 00,563,767 00,577,737 | -0.18 00,576,689 |

T 435 308156338 326464979 | ----------------- | 328,239,523/+1,552,022

Quote:


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
For this projection of 2019, I am including FL as gaining it's 29th Seat although the number doesn't show it, because the large retirement population there seems to not translate to the Labor Force figures. If FL did not gain this 29th Seat, CA would keep it's 53rd Seat under this projection.
This projection for 2019, if the Census was held now and Apportionment was delegated from it: CA, RI, WV, MN, MI, PA, IL, NY each loses a seat. OR, CO, AZ, NC, each gains a seat. FL and TX each gain 2 seats.
The last Seats go to IL, NY, AL, OH. Those missing the cut are CA, TX, MN, MT.


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Sunday, January 5, 2020 4:51 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Well, it looks like they are revising history again.

Found a table of data.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state
-total.html


This page, the first of the list of "Tables" which is labeled up til 2019.


Trying to be fair, the data for 2018 was an Estimate, and it could be conjured that more data had become available.
However, the last Census was 2010, and the new set of data for 2019 includes population Census figures from 2010 which are different from what they said in 2018. So this means they are rewriting history. They are changing what the Census had tabulated. Which should be nonsense.

But I will attempt to compile it for predictive purposes.

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Monday, January 6, 2020 8:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Alright, I'll see if I can pack in the new data, alongside the data from last year.
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Census had a press release on 30 Dec 2019. They dodged and weaved around the facts, but some data could be discerned from it. I have not yet found a set of actual raw data from them. This is all a report of the Census data for 1 July 2019.


https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html


Here I have copied a prior table, where I extrapolated the projected 1 July Population figures, and I will add a last column or 2 which reflect the data that was just provided.


Well, now that I've filled out the portions of data that they've provided, I can see that none of the numbers add up. The figures that they had for 2018 and now for 2019, the differences do not add to what they state are the differences. So maybe they revised some data from last year. I'll need to look into this.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is Population in the 2010 Census. As reported in 2018.
Second column is current Population (est 1 July 2018). As reported in 2018.
Third column is Projected Population for 2019.


Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.




The first 2 columns are the data reported in 2018 for 2010 Census and 2018 Estimate. Then my projected 2019 population, and amount of change. Then the 4 sets of data as reported in 2019.
ST 2010 Pop 2018 Pop | 2019 Projd/chng | 2019 data 2010, 2018, 2019/change
CA 37252895 39557045 | 39931485/374440 | 37253956 39461588 39512223/50,635
TX 25146105 28701846 | 29200660/498814 | 25145561 28628666 28995881/367215
NY 19378087 19542209 | 19617851/75,642 | 19378102 19530351 19453561/-76790
FL 18804623 21299325 | 21531733/232408 | 18801310 21244317 21477737/233420
IL 12831549 12741080 | 12745989/04,909 | 12830632 12723071 12671821/-51250

PA 12702887 12807060 | 12957820/150760 | 12702379 12800922 12801989/01,067
OH 11536725 11689442 | 11832858/143416 | 11536504 11676341 11689100/12,759
MI 09884129 09998915 | 09921866/-77049 | 09883640 09984072 09986857/02,785
GA 09688681 10519475 | 10497522/-21953 | 09687653 10511131 10617423/106292
NC 09535692 10383620 | 10547657/164037 | 09535483 10381615 10488084/106469

NJ 08791936 09032873 | 09108816/25,943 | 08791894 08886025 08882190/-3,835
VA 08001045 08517685 | 08591030/73,345 | 08001024 08501286 08535519/34,233
WA 06724543 07535591 | 07779673/244082 | 06724540 07523869 07614893/91,024
MA 06547817 06902149 | 07007750/105601 | 06547629 06882635 06892503/09,868
IN 06484229 06691878 | 06797584/105706 | 06483802 06695497 06732219/36,722

AZ 06392307 07171646 | 07375566/203920 | 06392017 07158024 07278717/120693
TN 06346275 06770010 | 06967049/197039 | 06346105 06771631 06829174/57,543
MO 05988927 06126452 | 06134331/07,879 | 05988927 06121623 06137428/15,805
MD 05773785 06042718 | 06069668/26,850 | 05773552 06035802 06045680/-9,878
WI 05687289 05813568 | 05788277/-25291 | 05686986 05807406 05822434/15,028

MN 05303925 05611179 | 05671216/60,037 | 05303925 05606249 05639632/33,383
CO 05029324 05695564 | 05818329/122765 | 05029196 05691287 05758736/67,449
AL 04780127 04887871 | 04968638/80,767 | 04779736 04887681 04903185/15,504
SC 04625401 05084127 | 05206181/122054 | 04625364 05084156 05148714/64,558
LA 04533479 04659978 | 04629832/-30146 | 04533372 04659690 04648794/-10896

KY 04339349 04468402 | 04490281/21,879 | 04339367 04461153 04467673/06,520
OR 03831073 04190713 | 04233862/43,149 | 03831074 04181886 04217737/35,851
OK 03751616 03943079 | 03893990/-49089 | 03751351 03940235 03956971/16,736
CT 03574118 03572665 | 03605262/32,597 | 03574097 03571520 03565287/-6,233
IA 03046869 03156145 | 03226012/69,867 | 03046355 03148618 03155070/06,352

MS 02968103 02986530 | 02949220/-37310 | 02967297 02981020 02976149/-4,871
AR 02915958 03013825 | 03034020/20,195 | 02915918 03009733 03017804/08,071
KS 02853132 02911505 | 02910353/-1,152 | 02853118 02911359 02913314/01,955
UT 02763888 03161105 | 03206655/45,550 | 02763885 03153550 03205958/52,408
NV 02700691 03034392 | 03097394/63,002 | 02700551 03027341 03080156/52,815

NM 02059192 02095428 | 02134825/39,397 | 02059179 02092741 02096829/04,088
WV 01853011 01805832 | 01822065/16,233 | 01852994 01804291 01792147/-12144
NE 01826341 01929268 | 01961874/32,606 | 01826341 01925614 01934408/08,794
ID 01567652 01774208 | 01815099/40,891 | 01567582 01750536 01787065/36,529
HI 01360301 01420491 | 01394502/-25989 | 01360301 01420393 01415872/-4,721

ME 01328361 01338404 | 01330150/-8,254 | 01328361 01339057 01344212/05,855
NH 01316466 01356458 | 01368489/12,031 | 01316470 01353465 01359711/06,246
RI 01052931 01057315 | 01045742/-11573 | 01052567 01058287 01059361/01,074
MT 00989417 01062305 | 01069154/06,849 | 00989415 01060665 01068778/08,113
DE 00897936 00967171 | 00981373/14,202 | 00897934 00965479 00973764/08,285

SD 00814191 00882235 | 00895132/12,897 | 00814180 00878698 00884659/05,961
AK 00710249 00737438 | 00728890/-8,548 | 00710231 00735139 00731545/-3,594
ND 00672591 00760077 | 00761756/01,679 | 00672591 00758080 00762062/03,982
VT 00625745 00626299 | 00623588/-2,711 | 00625741 00624358 00623989/-0,369
WY 00563767 00577737 | 00576689/-1,048 | 00563626 00577601 00578759/01,158

T 435 308156338 326464979 | ------------- | 326687501 328239523/+1,552,022


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Tuesday, January 7, 2020 9:40 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Thought this thread was going to be about US Senators being chosen by the state govt's, and not elected by the public.

As it should be.

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