Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Summary of the above Table:
California would get the 435th Seat, just barely keeping its 53 Seats.
The next Seat would have gone to Montana. After that would be RI (would keep 2nd Seat), FL (would gain a 2nd Seat), MN (would keep current Seat).

TX gains 2.
FL gains 1. Also NC, AZ, CO, OR.
NY loses 1. Also IL, PA, MI, MN, VW, RI.

So 7 Seats would migrate if those Populations were Apportioned today.

Of the losers, 3 went to Trump.
Of the gainers, 4 States gaining 5 Electoral Votes went to Trump.
So that would be a gain of a margin of 4 for Trump.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by reaverfan:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

That's because it's a shit place to live. Nothing but Jesus freaks and meth heads.

There's a reason they call it the middle finger of the south.

This Is the No. 1 Most Polluted State in America
https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/most-polluted-states-united-states.
html/

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address/

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

[Northwest Indiana] NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

---

Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.

You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.

You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

You need to give me some numbers: What is the value of your dad's house versus your house? Telling me the taxes are $7k versus $1k tells me nothing about how much the house is worth. Why is that important? Everywhere in the USA, the property tax equals the tax rate times the value of the property. The house I'm sitting in right now would be worth millions if it was in Silver Lake, CA or River Oaks in Houston. But where it is located in Baytown it is worth 5% of that. And guess what? The property tax is only 5% of what it would be in those other places. I'm living larger than anybody in the LA area you ever heard of who is isn't a multi-billionare with a gold-plated house.

6ix, if your house is in a low value neighborhood, your taxes will be low, even if your house looks just as good as a house in a high value neighborhood in California. If I recall correctly, your house is in a flood zone. That can lower the value by 90% from the house 500 feet away that can't flood. Lowers the taxes by 90%, too. But I doubt your house looks good compared to your relative's homes, which explains the $7k your Dad pays versus $1k you pay.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

---

Quote:

---

6. Illinois

Average state property tax rate: 2.253 percent
Median real estate taxes paid: $4,058

Illinois’ median home value is $174,300 — which is well below the national median. But the state’s property tax rate is the second-highest in the country.

---

Quote:

---

The state of Illinois has the second highest property taxes in the country. The statewide average effective tax rate is 2.32%, nearly double the national average.


How Your Property Taxes Compare Based on an Assessed Home Value of $250,000

McHenry County $6,915
2.766% of Assessed Home Value

Illinois $5,633
2.253% of Assessed Home Value

National $3,028
1.211% of Assessed Home Value

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

States With the Highest Property Taxes . . .

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

States With the Highest Property Taxes . . .

---

If you are worried about the difference between 2.253 percent in Illinois versus less than 1 percent in Indiana, you must really be freaked out by the seven federal tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%. I believe you’ve done things to keep yourself in a lower tax bracket. That way of thinking is self-defeating. I suggest The Munger Operating System: How to Live a Life That Really Works. https://fs.blog/2016/04/munger-operating-system/

One of the points Munger makes: Avoid intense ideologies. Always consider the other side as carefully as your own.

One more from Munger: I have a friend who carried a big stack of index cards about this thick, and when somebody would make a comment that reflected self pity, he would take out one of the cards, take the top one off the stack and hand it to the person, and the card said, “Your story has touched my heart, never have I heard of anyone with as many misfortunes as you”. Well, you can say that’s waggery, but I suggest that every time you find you’re drifting into self pity, I don’t care what the cause, self-pity is not going to improve the situation. Just give yourself one of those cards.

When you avoid self-pity you get a great advantage over almost everybody else because self-pity is a standard condition and yet you can train yourself out of it. And of course self-serving bias, you want to get that out of yourself; thinking that what’s good for you (less than 1% tax rate, for example) is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on the subconscious tendency to serve one’s self.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Well, many people who work in Houston decide it is better to live in Houston, have a short commute to work and pay the property taxes on their more valuable house, then it is to have a long commute from either Fort Bend county or Montgomery county. It is the difference between rising upward to wealth or sinking downward to the earth. I've noticed that Republicans flee to the suburbs. They consciously made their choice for lower taxes. They unconsciously also choose less wealth, but they can't see the connect to what they did to themselves. That's their problem, not mine. Charlie Munger told 'em, but he can't make 'em think.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

---

Quote:

---

How Property Taxes in Illinois Work

Property tax assessments and collections in Illinois run on a roughly two-year cycle. In year one, local assessing official appraise real estate to determine a market value for each home in their area. The assessed value of property in most of Illinois is equal to 33.33% (one-third) of the market value of the residential property. In Cook County, however, the assessment ratio is 10% on residential property and 25% on commercial property.

After local officials calculate the assessed values of properties, county boards review these values to determine if they are correct. These county boards may equalize assessed values. If they find, for example, that the property in a certain district was appraised at half of its actual value, they will apply an equalization factor of 2, doubling the assessed value of everything in the district.

Property owners also have the opportunity to protest their assessed value before the county board. If a homeowner is not satisfied with the county board’s decision, they can appeal to the State Property Tax Appeal Board or even the circuit court.

The state of Illinois also equalizes values between counties by issuing an equalization factor for each county. This ensures that assessed property values in all counties are comparable.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Sales tax was something that I neglected to bring up for Illinois as well.

There's a base state rate of 6.25%, but local governments (county, city) are allowed to raise that another whopping 4.75% on top of that. Cook County, home of Chicago, is typically the highest in the state. My bro and my dad live where it's 10.5%.

Conversely, there is a flat 7% sales tax rate in Indiana. No local governments are allowed to raise this.

In addition to all of this, like in Wisconsin, unprepared food is not taxed in many parts of Indiana, although some local governments do tax it either 1 or 2%. NWI Lake County does not tax at all on food. However, ALL food is taxed at the local rate in Illinois (At least 6.25%, but as much as 11%).




EDIT: Regarding that last paragraph... Seems that the law on food tax in Illinois changed in the decade plus since I lived out of the state, likely in tandem with the original rate hikes, or later on to combat their severe impact on those living under the poverty level but not poor enough to be on food stamps (where there is no sales tax).

The full 6.25% is not charged by the state for food. It's only 1%. However, the local governments are still allowed to further tax it another 4.75% on top of that, for a maximum food sales tax of 5.75%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://www.unitedvanlines.com/contact-united/news/movers-study-2018



ST. LOUIS – Jan. 2, 2019 – Americans are on the move, relocating to western and southern parts of the country. The results of United Van Lines’ 42nd Annual National Movers Study, which tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns over the past year, revealed that more residents moved out of New Jersey than any other state in 2018, with 66.8 percent of New Jersey moves being outbound. The study also found that the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration was Vermont (72.6 percent), with 234 total moves. Oregon, which had 3,346 total moves, experienced the second highest percentage nationally, with 63.8 percent inbound moves.

States in the Mountain West and Pacific West regions, including Oregon, Idaho (62.4 percent), Nevada (61.8 percent), Washington (58.8 percent) and South Dakota (57 percent) continue to increase in popularity for inbound moves. In tune with this trend, Arizona (60.2 percent) joined the list of top 10 inbound states in 2018.

Several southern states also experienced high percentages of inbound migration, such as South Carolina (59.9 percent) and North Carolina (57 percent). United Van Lines determined the top reasons for moving south include job change (46.6 percent) and retirement (22.3 percent).

In the Northeast, however, an outbound moving trend continues. New Jersey (66.8 percent), Connecticut (62 percent) and New York (61.5 percent) were included among the top 10 outbound states for the fourth consecutive year. Midwestern states like Illinois (65.9 percent), Kansas (58.7 percent), Ohio (56.5 percent) and Iowa (55.5 percent) saw high outbound relocation as well.

“As the nation’s largest household goods mover, our study allows us to identify the most and least popular states for residential relocation throughout the country, year after year,” said Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines. “These findings accurately reflect not only where Americans are moving to and from, but also the reasons why.”

The National Movers Study reveals the business data of inbound and outbound moves from 2018. In addition to this study, United Van Lines also conducts a survey to find out more about the reasons behind these moves. A leading motivation behind these migration patterns across all regions is a career change, as the survey showed approximately one out of every two people who moved in the past year moved for a new job or company transfer. Other reasons for the high percentage of moves to the Mountain West in 2018 include retirement (28.1 percent), proximity to family (20.8 percent) and lifestyle change (19.4 percent). Compared to all other states, Idaho saw the largest influx of new residents desiring a lifestyle change (25.95 percent), and more people flocked to New Mexico for retirement than any other state (42.74 percent).

“The data collected by United Van Lines aligns with longer-term migration patterns to southern and western states, trends driven by factors like job growth, lower costs of living, state budgetary challenges and more temperate climates,” said Michael Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Unlike a few decades ago, retirees are leaving California, instead choosing other states in the Pacific West and Mountain West. We’re also seeing young professionals migrating to vibrant, metropolitan economies, like Washington, D.C. and Seattle.”

Moving In

The top inbound states of 2018 were:

Vermont
Oregon
Idaho
Nevada
Arizona
South Carolina
Washington
North Carolina
South Dakota
District of Columbia

New to the 2018 top inbound list are Arizona at No. 5 and District of Columbia at No. 10, with 60.2 percent and 56.7 percent inbound moves, respectively.

Moving Out

The top outbound states for 2018 were:

New Jersey
Illinois
Connecticut
New York
Kansas
Ohio
Massachusetts
Iowa
Montana
Michigan

New Jersey (66.8 percent), which has ranked in the top 10 for the past 10 years, moved up one spot on the outbound list to No. 1. New additions to the 2018 top outbound list include Iowa (55.5 percent), Montana (55 percent) and Michigan (55 percent).

Balanced

In several states, the number of residents moving inbound was approximately the same as the number moving outbound. Arkansas and Mississippi are among these “balanced states.”

Since 1977, United Van Lines has annually tracked migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2018 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

To view the entire 2018 study, an interactive map and archived press releases from United, visit the United Van Lines website.

Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to move to!
Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to retire!
AddThis Sharing Buttons
Share to Facebook
Share to TwitterShare to PrintShare to EmailShare to More
Follow us on:

Media Inquiry

For more information on United or if you are a member of the press and have questions/comments, please email our Director of Communications by clicking below:

Eily_Cummings@unigroup.com
PRESS KIT:
United Van Lines
2018 National
Movers Study

Press Release, Map and Data
Download Now

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Adding in the Seats from Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20 P20 P19

CA 53 53 53 52 | 53 | 53
TX 32 36 38 38 | 39 | 38
NY 29 27 26 26 | 26 | 26
FL 25 27 28 29 | 29 | 29
I L 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17

PA 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17
OH 18 16 16 16 | 15 | 15
M I 15 14 13 13 | 13
GA 13 14 14 14 | 14
NC 13 13 14 14 | 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 | 12
VA 11 11 11 11 | 11
MA 10 09 09 09 | 09
WA 09 10 10 10 | 10
I N 09 09 09 09 | 09

TN 09 09 09 09 | 09
MO 09 08 08 08 | 08
AZ 08 09 10 09 | 10 | 10
MN 08 08 07 07 | 07
W I 08 08 08 08 | 08

MD 08 08 08 08 | 08
CO 07 07 08 08 | 08 | 08
AL 07 07 07 07 | 06 | 06
LA 07 06 06 06 | 06
SC 06 07 07 07 | 07

KY 06 06 06 06 | 06
OR 05 05 06 06 | 06
OK 05 05 05 05 | 05
CT 05 05 05 05 | 05
I A 05 04 04 04 | 04

MS 04 04 04 04 | 04
AR 04 04 04 04 | 04
KS 04 04 04 04 | 04
NE 03 03 03 03 | 03
UT 03 04 04 04 | 04

NV 03 04 04 04 | 04
NM 03 03 03 03 | 03
WV 03 03 02 02 | 02
I D 02 02 02 02 | 02
H I 02 02 02 02 | 02

ME 02 02 02 02 | 02
NH 02 02 02 02 | 02
R I 02 02 01 01 | 01
MT 01 01 01 02 | 01 | 02
DE 01 01 01 01 | 01

SD 01 01 01 01 | 01
AK 01 01 01 01 | 01
ND 01 01 01 01 | 01
VT 01 01 01 01 | 01
WY 01 01 01 01 | 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Does Tax on "grocery" (aka unprepared food) still vary from County to County? I knew many States have different levels of Taxation on necessities, but I had assumed it was Statewide, yes or no. Hadn't really paid attention. I do believe WI is all Counties the same, no Tax on "grocery" and that rule unchanged for many Decades.

---

Quote:

---

This is another example of local representation, rules made by the State, which supports State's Rights, not subject to Federal Regs. The people of the State decide/vote how they want to be screwed.

---

Quote:

---

This is an important factor in some discussions of switching from Federal Income Tax to Consumption Tax. What would the Tax be applied to, what Consumption? Well, obviously, whatever the prevailing rules on Taxation were for each State. If State includes basic necessities like grocery in it's Tax Base, then the Consumption Tax would apply to that, for that State. This also makes the local or State level Elected Official more responsive to the Voter - you don't like paying 15% Consumption Tax on your grocery, you need to straighten out your State Legislature, vote in somebody with sense.

---

Quote:

---

If the expenditures of poor folk such as grocery, bare housing, bare medical, basic education, mass transit are rendered untaxable, then truly poor folk become essentially untaxed. And if they feel the urgent need to be Taxed, they can purchase a Luxury Item, and pay the Tax just like anybody else.

---

Quote:

---

If the State deems an item or category as Taxable, then that would be the rule for the Federal Government to apply the Consumption Tax. This makes the collection system truly piggyback - just include the Consumption Tax on each item already being processed with an existing Tax, no need for any monstrosity of administration to collect with - and IRS can wither away, not just shift function. And the IRS Budget and expense goes away, for even more Taxpayer's saving.

---

Quote:

---

Anyway, back to second's claims. Do you see how the numbers he is claiming are really represented in the way you have laid out the actual numbers for IL and IN? Or are his numbers complete Manure? I cannot reconcile his numbers with any known reality, didn't know if you could.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Adding in the Seats from Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20 P20 P19

CA 53 53 53 52 | 53 | 53
TX 32 34 38 38 | 39 | 38
NY 29 27 26 26 | 26 | 26
FL 25 27 28 29 | 29 | 29
I L 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17

PA 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17
OH 18 16 16 16 | 15 | 15
M I 15 14 13 13 | 13
GA 13 14 14 14 | 14
NC 13 13 14 14 | 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 | 12
VA 11 11 11 11 | 11
MA 10 09 09 09 | 09
WA 09 10 10 10 | 10
I N 09 09 09 09 | 09

TN 09 09 09 09 | 09
MO 09 08 08 08 | 08
AZ 08 09 10 09 | 10 | 10
MN 08 08 07 07 | 07
W I 08 08 08 08 | 08

MD 08 08 08 08 | 08
CO 07 07 08 08 | 08 | 08
AL 07 07 07 07 | 06 | 06
LA 07 06 06 06 | 06
SC 06 07 07 07 | 07

KY 06 06 06 06 | 06
OR 05 05 06 06 | 06
OK 05 05 05 05 | 05
CT 05 05 05 05 | 05
I A 05 04 04 04 | 04

MS 04 04 04 04 | 04
AR 04 04 04 04 | 04
KS 04 04 04 04 | 04
NE 03 03 03 03 | 03
UT 03 04 04 04 | 04

NV 03 04 04 04 | 04
NM 03 03 03 03 | 03
WV 03 03 02 02 | 02
I D 02 02 02 02 | 02
H I 02 02 02 02 | 02

ME 02 02 02 02 | 02
NH 02 02 02 02 | 02
R I 02 02 01 01 | 01
MT 01 01 01 02 | 01 | 02
DE 01 01 01 01 | 01

SD 01 01 01 01 | 01
AK 01 01 01 01 | 01
ND 01 01 01 01 | 01
VT 01 01 01 01 | 01
WY 01 01 01 01 | 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is percent change from Labor Force of March 2018 to March 2019.
Fifth column is Projected Population for 2019.
Sixth column is 2019 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population. (and subtotal)
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

---

Quote:

---

In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
For this projection of 2019, I am including FL as gaining it's 29th Seat although the number doesn't show it, because the large retirement population there seems to not translate to the Labor Force figures. If FL did not gain this 29th Seat, CA would keep it's 53rd Seat under this projection.
This projection for 2019, if the Census was held now and Apportionment was delegated from it: CA, RI, WV, MN, MI, PA, IL, NY each loses a seat. OR, CO, AZ, NC, each gains a seat. FL and TX each gain 2 seats.
The last Seats go to IL, NY, AL, OH. Those missing the cut are CA, TX, MN, MT.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Census had a press release on 30 Dec 2019. They dodged and weaved around the facts, but some data could be discerned from it. I have not yet found a set of actual raw data from them. This is all a report of the Census data for 1 July 2019.


https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html


Here I have copied a prior table, where I extrapolated the projected 1 July Population figures, and I will add a last column or 2 which reflect the data that was just provided.


Well, now that I've filled out the portions of data that they've provided, I can see that none of the numbers add up. The figures that they had for 2018 and now for 2019, the differences do not add to what they state are the differences. So maybe they revised some data from last year. I'll need to look into this.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is Population in the 2010 Census. As reported in 2018.
Second column is current Population (est 1 July 2018). As reported in 2018.
Third column is Projected Population for 2019.


Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

---

---