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HARRY ENTEN, CNN: You might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand — but in fact, it hasn’t.

If anything, it’s been helped a little bit. Take a look here — the shift in net popularity versus pre-shutdown. When we’re looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand is actually up two points. That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped.

Come over to this side of the screen — look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress. It’s actually up five points since pre-shutdown.

So what we’re seeing here is that the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control both chambers. And that’s the math that John Thune and Mike Johnson are looking at — “Hey, why should we give in, electorally speaking, when our brand has actually improved a little bit?”

It’s two groups that are so important to keep an eye on. All right, changing the Republican Congress net approval rating versus pre-shutdown — it’s rallying the base for sure. Look at this: the net approval rating is up 12 points versus pre-shutdown. But it’s not just with the base; it’s also with the middle of the electorate. Look at this — among independents, it’s up eight points as well.

So we’ve got a situation here where Republicans, with the shutdown, are actually rallying their base, but it’s also something that’s not hurting them with the voters in the middle. If anything, it’s helping them with folks in the middle. And this is the type of math that, if you’re Republicans, you like to see. Right?

Because something could rally the base but alienate those in the middle — or something could rally those in the middle but alienate the base. But the truth is, we’re not seeing that. What we’re seeing is that the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents, and it’s also gotten better among Republicans as well — that Republican brand, when it comes to those in Congress.

So again, what’s the electoral reason that Republicans would give in at this point?

CNN HOST: And Democrats, of course, they have their eyes on the midterm elections. Yeah, we have elections one week from today. But what Democrats in Congress are mostly focused on are one year and one week from today — the midterms. So how are Democrats positioned right now?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN: Yeah, so, I mean, look — the generic congressional ballot, which traditionally Democrats have done really well on. If you look back to this point when Trump was president the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now — Democrats are ahead, but they’re actually only up three points.

This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been in on a generic ballot at this point in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years. And this is no different from pre-shutdown. So Republicans aren’t losing on this metric either.

They’ve become more popular, and they’re actually in a pretty good position for them historically when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.

This is a concerning number for Democrats because it’s considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there’s a Republican president.

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