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With no significant breakthrough after six weeks, it is worth asking whether Ukraine’s counter-offensive can ever succeed, for it certainly doesn’t look to be succeeding now.



The question to be asked is: are the Ukrainians prepared – militarily, politically, financially – to carry out months and potentially years of these (frontal assault) attacks to penetrate 1914-18 style defensive belts of tank traps, barbed wire, minefields, bunkers and trench lines? The UK Ministry of Defence has described these Russian fortifications as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.



Ukraine is already outnumbered in every military capability. Its dire shortage of armoured vehicles means that Kyiv is approaching this counter-offensive with immense caution. Many Nato-supplied tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were knocked out during early probing attacks and they are consequently holding most of the rest of these assets back to avoid too many more losses. That is understandable – yet only a bold, concerted assault with massed armour is likely to overcome the Russians.

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Originally posted by K2PO:

- The war won't end this year.
- Russia peaked last summer in terms of its strength in this war relative to Ukraine. Despite their mobilisations they will fight more defensively than offensively this year. They will lose more territory than they gain, but Ukrainian victories won't be as stunning as last year as Russia has more manpower and a shorter front line to defend. Bakhmut will hold. More mobilisations and replacements of top Russian generals wouldn't surprise me - this year, or next.

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