REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Affordable Care Act updates

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Wednesday, January 15, 2014 09:35
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Monday, January 13, 2014 11:09 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

Obamacare Enrollment Exploded In December To 2.2 Million

The December enrollment surge for the Affordable Care Act that the Obama administration long predicted -- and desperately needed -- has come to fruition.

As of Dec. 28, 2.2 million Americans have enrolled in private health coverage, according to new data released Monday by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. More than 1.8 million of them signed up in December alone, a huge spike that has gotten the law closer to its original goals than most would have thought possible after HealthCare.gov's disastrous rollout in October.

The administration's original projection was 3.3 million enrollments in private health insurance by the end of 2013, so Obamacare isn't quite back on track yet. But considering the combined total in October and November was less than the administration had targeted for just the month of October, it's much closer to the mark.

"In terms of total enrollment, 2.2 million is relatively strong turn-out given massive IT challenges in October and November," said Caroline Pearson, vice president at Avalere Health, an independent consulting firm. "These enrollment figures are encouraging for this stage in the process, especially with all the early systems problems they experienced," Larry Levitt, senior vice president at the non-partisan Kaiser Family Foundation, said. "We’re at halftime in the open enrollment period."

Perhaps as a sign that the federal website is genuinely working better, enrollment through HealthCare.gov, which serves 36 states, finally eclipsed enrollment through the 14 (plus D.C.) state-based websites: 1.2 million versus 1 million. Some of the larger states using HealthCare.gov, like Florida and North Carolina, which had previously trailed smaller state-based sites like Kentucky in enrollment, also saw their enrollment skyrocket and become more proportional to their share of the population. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/obamacare-december-enrollment-numbers


And there's still three months to go.Then there's that prediction that if not enough young people sign up, it'll die:
Quote:

The Obama administration has just released the enrollment report that health wonks around the world have anxiously awaited: The one that shows the age breakdown of people selecting insurance plans under Obamacare.

It shows okay news for the White House: Twenty-four percent of those purchasing coverage are young adults, the coveted age group between 18 and 34 -- the exact group the White House thinks it really, really needs to enroll to make the health-care law work.

Is 24 percent of sign-ups coming in among young adults bad news for the Affordable Care Act? It is, obviously, lower than the targeted 40 percent. At the same time, it's also higher than where Massachusetts's young adult enrollment started back in 2006, when the state expanded coverage. It saw young adult enrollment steadily grow, over the course of open enrollment, to make up a larger chunk of overall sign-ups.

And during December, there was an eight-fold increase in young adults selecting plans through the exchanges, which does suggest a decent number of shoppers were waiting to purchase coverage until the third month they could sign up.

Most health policy experts generally expected younger and healthier adults to wait until the end of open enrollment, which runs through March 31, to purchase coverage. Whereas those who are older and sicker would have immediate health-care needs and would jump at the chance to buy coverage, healthier shoppers would likely be more comfortable waiting a few months -- saving some money by not paying premiums -- and purchasing coverage sometime in the late winter or early spring.

"All evidence suggests the pace will increase," says Aaron Smith, executive director of pro-health law group Young Invincibles. "Young people want to explore their options before they make their decisions. "I think the 24 percent number suggests we're on the right track." http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/13/one-in-four
-obamacare-enrollees-are-young-adults-thats-below-the-target
/


Prior to HealthCare.gov's Oct. 1 launch, the Obama administration said it was aiming for close to 40 percent of enrollees to be between 18 and 34. So the law certainly isn't hitting its mark yet. But outside experts said there's reason to be optimistic that the ratio will improve during the last three months of open enrollment -- and even if it doesn't strike a perfect balance, the law should be fine.

First of all, most expected the early enrollees to be older and sicker because they need health insurance more urgently. But a number of factors -- including increased awareness and a desire to avoid the individual mandate penalty -- could encourage more young people to sign up in the next three months.

"It is critical to remember that we are still early in the open enrollment period," Caroline Pearson, vice president at Avalere Health, an independent consulting firm, told TPM. "We have always assumed that older and sicker individuals would be the first to enroll, and younger, healthier people would enroll closer to March. So, we shouldn’t panic about low young adult turn-out at this point because it is to be expected."

In the first three months of enrollment, young people composed 17, 17 and 24 percent of sign-ups, respectively. But in the last three months, that jumped to 34, 36 and 34 percent respectively.

The White House is hoping for a similar spike. But even if the law doesn't hit its target perfectly, Obamacare has protections in place to keep it afloat financially. A reinsurance program protects carriers against a bad risk pool. The Kaiser Family Foundation also released a report last month that concluded if 25 percent of the enrollment pool were young people, the resulting premium increase might be only 1 to 2 percent, not enough to fatally undermine the law's actuarial base.

"I see no signs at this point of a feared premium 'death spiral.' The insurance market will be stable with an enrollment mix like this," Larry Levitt, senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told TPM after seeing the new numbers. "But heightened outreach to young people, and even more importantly healthy people, will help to keep premiums down."

So exactly like "RomneyCare" before it, the ACA is coming along.

In other words, if our local troll ever opened his eyes, he'd have the answer to his own question of "Some how you think O-Care will " work itself out " and there won't be a colossal cluster fuck for the nation. You really think that won't happen, or that it's not happening now ?" Of course we realize he'll never get actual facts and news from the only sources he listens to, so he'll go on just the same.

But what is actually "happening now" is that Obamacare IS working itself out, just as predicted. Nobody's denying it got off to a gawd-awful start, but as the famous line goes, reports of its demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Cue the troll...

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 12:29 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Absolute bunk. Those #'s are fictional,if anything. They're not 'enrolled' just on a list.

This will utterly collapse.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 12:41 AM

SHINYGOODGUY


In Denmark they speak Danish, sometimes with cheese and coffee


SGG


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Absolute bunk. Those #'s are fictional,if anything. They're not 'enrolled' just on a list.

This will utterly collapse.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall


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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 12:59 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!





Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 7:43 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:



This really tells the story. Slowly bu surely more young adults will find they can be covered and that it can be affordable. More and more people will like Obamacare and see the GOP lied about it the whole way.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 8:55 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Older folks are signing up more than younger, which is the opposite of what is needed.

It's failing.

Badly.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 9:34 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by M52NICKERSON:
Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:



This really tells the story. Slowly bu surely more young adults will find they can be covered and that it can be affordable. More and more people will like Obamacare and see the GOP lied about it the whole way.




What would have been interesting would have been if they also graphed the other age groups, or total signups. What with the troubles with the Healthcare.gov system, you'd expect low enrollments in the first few weeks when the system worked poorly, and a large overall increase when it began to work better.

Suspicious minds would consider that graph lying (or at least leaving out some of the truth) with statistics.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 9:37 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Older folks are signing up more than younger, which is the opposite of what is needed.



33% of signups so far are in the 55-64 age range, and 22% in the 45-54.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/aca-enrollment/

Time will tell.




"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 9:43 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
What would have been interesting would have been if they also graphed the other age groups, or total signups. What with the troubles with the Healthcare.gov system, you'd expect low enrollments in the first few weeks when the system worked poorly, and a large overall increase when it began to work better.

Suspicious minds would consider that graph lying (or at least leaving out some of the truth) with statistics.



No one with an ounce of integrety is going to claim the graph is lying. It's a single graph of a single statistic in a whole lot of information like...

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116202/hhs-releases-obamacare-enrol
lment-data-young-slower-sign


I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 10:22 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Yeah, that's a pretty amazing statement…but given we're getting "Those #'s are fictional,if anything" from our resident right-wing troll, and Geezer thinks the graphs are "lying", I guess the day has come when facts and figures LITERALLY mean nothing to them, they're so deep in denial. Shouldn't surprise anyone, given how they debunked all the polls that showed Romney wouldn't win last year; I guess they've just given up completely on anything they don't believe having any possibility of being true. Really weird.

I feel it necessary to also mention that it's not people who are "just on a list", it is people who HAVE ENROLLED and HAVE BEEN DETERMINED TO BE ELIGIBLE.

However, whether Geezer will accept it or not, here's a chart on "total signups" he wanted--also from the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services (also people who have enrolled and are eligible), so who knows if he'll think it's "lying" too…



Of course, it only covers people who have selected from the FEDERAL site and it's only through December 28, but have no fear, I'll be happy to update the facts and figures as they become available…whether the right believes them or not. I wonder how many years we'll have to wait for our head-in-the-sanders to start accepting the facts (or will they ever?).

The originals of both graphs can be found at http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/2014/MarketPlaceEnrollment/Jan2014/
ib_2014jan_enrollment.pdf
, by the way, where Geezer can also find a breakdown of "Comparison of the Age Distribution of Marketplace Plan Selections (SBM & FFM) For the Three Month period: 10-1-13 to 12-28-13" as well as "Cumulative Marketplace Enrollment-Related Information For the Three Month period: 10-1-13 to 12-28-13" AND the methodology for determining those graphs/charts.


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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 10:58 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by M52NICKERSON:
No one with an ounce of integrety is going to claim the graph is lying.



Lying with statistics, I believe I said. The data can be correct, but the way you present it can be manipulated.

Like the old joke.

Pravda reports the results of a drag race between Russian and American cars. "Triumph in great race. Our Russian car finishes second, while the American car is next to last."


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 11:06 AM

SHINYGOODGUY


The proof is in the TIME.

Both Medicaid and Medicare were also doomed to fail back in the early outset, but here we are. So let those poor unfortunate souls argue and troll their lives away - the continued launch of the ACA will prove be necessary and right in the long run, that's part of the reason why we are still talking about it now after years of "it's gonna kill people, and Death Panels" etc.

There is such a need for affordable health care that this will be a mild hiccup in time.


SGG

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 12:09 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by M52NICKERSON:
No one with an ounce of integrety is going to claim the graph is lying.



Lying with statistics, I believe I said. The data can be correct, but the way you present it can be manipulated.

Like the old joke.

Pravda reports the results of a drag race between Russian and American cars. "Triumph in great race. Our Russian car finishes second, while the American car is next to last."



Lying with statistics would still be lying. Since the graph clearly points out that the data is for a single age group it is not.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 12:58 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Not only is the graph not "lying" (with statistics or otherwise), if you go to the original document, there are footnotes, explanations, qualifications, and clearly-documented methodology, all of it in depth, verifiable, and anything else Geezer might want. I note he didn't address the original document or any of its verifications, just posted a snark about Russian misinformation.

They qualify the hell out of it, including "The reporting period for the first 3 months is from 10-1-13 to 12-28-13. Any differences in reporting periods among states are noted in footnotes accompanying the Table in Appendix B. See Appendix C for methodological information. Visitors to the Marketplace websites is the sum of monthly data and has been unduplicated to the extent possible; however, we do not believe that all duplication has yet been removed."

The original document breaks everything down in many ways, age, sex, state-based marketplaces (SBMs - 956,991) and the federally-facilitated marketplace (FFM - 1,196,430), even by what "metal" of plan people have enrolled in: "bronze (20%), gold (13%), silver (SBMs: 57%; FFM: 61%), platinum (7%), and catastrophic (1%)". It

Interestingly, in one of the other graphs I listed, it shows that there have actually been 4,348,224 "Completed applications through the Marketplaces" during that period. The period is 10-1-13 to 12-28-13 "(based on data reported as of 1-9-14)". In other words, the numbers are actually higher, because not all the data is in yet.

Also, the graph for enrollments from 18-34 are incomplete, as well, as footnoted: " These percentages are based on the total number of plan selections for which the applicable data are available, excluding plan selections with unknown data for age." And another 15% of those who have enrolled are between the ages of 35 and 44.

In other words, I don't know how much more detailed, footnoted, explained, tabled, graphed data Geezer would need to consider the figures "valid"--we of course know that NO amount of facts/figures will ever be accepted by the troll and his ilk. I would have posted the actual tables for the above information, but it's a .pdf document, so I'd have to recreate them by hand. The fact remains that it's all there in black and white at http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/2014/MarketPlaceEnrollment/Jan2014/
ib_2014jan_enrollment.pdf
for anyone who ACTUALLY wants to deal with the issue.


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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 1:15 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Shiny, "what you said". Along with that, since the only thing we have to compare the ACA's beginnings with is "RomneyCare", it took SEVEN MONTHS for that healthcare plan to reach 25% enrollment of young adults, so the ACA is ahead of the curve:


(Source: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116173/young-people-and-obamacare-t
heyll-probably-sign-late
)

The numbers that came out today represent reaching 25% in THREE MONTHS, and that after a truly awful fubar of a roll-out. Massachusetts had a pretty bad roll-out of RomneyCare as well, but nothing like as bad. And of course we can't draw a perfect parallel between state-wide healthcare and national, but there are differences built into the ACA which protect it from failure which weren't built into Massachusetts version, as well. For a more complete understanding, there's Kaiser's analysis at http://kff.org/health-reform/perspective/the-numbers-behind-young-invi
ncibles-and-the-affordable-care-act
/, in which they state: "Enrollment of young adults is important, but not as important as conventional wisdom suggests since premiums are still permitted to vary substantially by age. Because of this, a premium “death spiral” is highly unlikely."

The focus on young-adult enrollment is just one more of the talking points the right has been desperately focused on. After only three months, their dire predictions are as meaningless as all their other cries of "death panels", etc.


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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 2:04 PM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by M52NICKERSON:
No one with an ounce of integrety is going to claim the graph is lying.



Lying with statistics, I believe I said.



And there ya go.




"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 3:22 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by M52NICKERSON: More and more people will like Obamacare and see the GOP lied about it the whole way.


The only ones who lied, with intent, were Obama and his cohorts.

Quote:



I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.



Funniest damn sig ever, as it contrasts so completely to the one who uses it.


Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 3:52 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
Shiny, "what you said". Along with that, since the only thing we have to compare the ACA's beginnings with is "RomneyCare", it took SEVEN MONTHS for that healthcare plan to reach 25% enrollment of young adults, so the ACA is ahead of the curve:


(Source: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116173/young-people-and-obamacare-t
heyll-probably-sign-late
)


That's a very worrying graph for Auraptor, or should be.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 4:58 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Of course he and other right wingnuts are worried. That is why they are in a tizzy now. It is they last chance to do anything before people find out the truth.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014 5:22 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Great, he's only going to get more shrill and hysterical in the coming months.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Wednesday, January 15, 2014 9:35 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


"he's only going to get more shrill and hysterical in the coming months."

That's even possible?


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