Beat the Prophets by AnthonyT

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Beat the Prophets

POSTED BY: ANTHONYT
UPDATED: Friday, September 30, 2005 05:41
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Friday, September 30, 2005 5:41 AM

Freedom is Important because People are Important

The Prophets have spoken. Now let's see if we can surprise them.

From Box Office Prophets:

"Weekend Forecast for Sept. 30 - Oct. 2, 2005
By Reagen Sulewski
September 30, 2005

There are five brand new wide releases this week, making it quite the crowded weekend at the theaters, but according to us at least, there's only one film to which you should be paying attention. If you don't know which one, you haven't been reading our site very long.

There's really no point in trying to be coy about our affinity for Serenity, the big-budget, big-screen adaptation of the former Fox TV series Firefly. We voted it our #1 most anticipated film of September and October, but I feel pretty confident that it could have been voted our most anticipated film of the entire calendar year 2005, and possibly extending beyond that. We're a little nutty for the series.

This is a film that, as its creators like to point out, really shouldn't exist. Joss Whedon, creator of Buffy the Vampire Slayer and Angel, brought to Fox his pitch for this series, which greatly over-simplifies to "sci-fi western". Frightened and confused by his intellect, they accepted it. But then, as with all things TV executives don't understand, they attempted to change it, and failing that, destroy it. Destroy it they did, through a combination of the "death slot" on Friday nights, showing episodes out of order, demanding a new pilot episode, fumbling the promotion for it and canceling the series just as it was really starting to get rolling. The show was character and dialogue-driven, interspersed with humor that didn't seem to match the sci-fi setting, and it just wasn't meant to succeed on the plot-driven medium of TV.

Even with this mistreatment, the series managed to capture a loyal audience, and in a familiar phenomenon these days, used DVD sales to its advantage, with terrific sales for a series that barely made a blip on the Nielsens. However, a funny thing then happened. The sales didn't slow down, with fans of the series evangelizing to all and sundry, harassing and haranguing friends, family members and total strangers into watching the adventures of Malcolm Reynolds, et. al, with the combination of action, humor and intrigue winning over many. Eventually someone finally took notice. That someone was the good people at Universal, who forever have a seat at my dinner table for reviving this franchise.

Whedon was then given a $40 million budget and the entire original cast and told to go at it, much to the delight of Browncoats (this series' version of Trekkies). He was able to shoot large, continuing the story of these rebels and their fugitive passengers on the run from the long arm of the bureaucratic Alliance. To say promotion for the film has been grassroots would be a dramatic understatement, with fans of the series popping up every time a DVD set is shared. It's just that effective. A money-back guarantee has been offered internally within this site regarding purchase of the DVD set; so far, it goes unused. It's just that good.

A series of early screenings of the film have also served to spread the word about Serenity, with tickets harder to come by than an honest politician. Most screenings sold out in mere minutes. Clearly the core fanbase is excited for the film. However, we are still dealing with a failed TV series becoming a movie, something that has only successfully been done twice (Star Trek and Police Squad). And as exciting as those pre-screenings were, they still sold mostly to pre-qualified audiences, and didn't make a whole lot of waves beyond that. Universal has been advertising the heck out of this thing, which almost has a desperate feel to it, but expectations remain modest. An $80 million worldwide total is the figure listed to justify a sequel, and that's certainly feasible, if a bit less of a slam-dunk than it felt in the giddy days after the project was announced.

Analogs, as mentioned, are tough to come by here, with the most recent similar project being the X-Files Movie. It opened like a rocket out of the gate in the summer of 1998, but faded faster than Rafael Palmiero's legacy, petering out at $80 million after opening to over $30 million. That kind of performance, on a smaller scale, might be expected here. It opens on a downright tiny-by-today's-standards 2,188 screens, with perhaps the hope of sellouts driving future hype. Or maybe it's just more realistic thoughts setting in. In any case, look for Serenity to come in with around $13 million for the weekend, with an outside shot at winning the weekend. Hey, do your best out there to make that happen, OK?"

Here says I: We can beat 13 million all to pieces. We've got one more trick in this pony. We'll do the impossible. Again.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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