CINEMA

Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Sunday, April 14, 2024 16:43
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 4592
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Tuesday, August 29, 2023 6:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (MOVIES)
By % of WORLDWIDE GROSS / PRODUCTION BUDGET

Up to date as of 01/04/2024
Percentages rounded to nearest full digit due to table constraints.


00000000000000000000| PRODUCTION0| WORLDWIDE0000|% OVER|2.0x RoT000000|2.5x RoT000000|FINAL|
Rnk|MOVIE TITLE00000| BUDGET00000| GROSS00000000|BUDGET|PROFIT/LOSS000|PROFIT/LOSS000|DATE0|STUDIO000|

001|Talk To Me000000|00$4,500,000|000$92,039,206|2,045%|000$83,039,206|000$80,789,206|10/26|A24000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002|Sound of Freedom|0$14,500,000|00$250,460,345|1,727%|00$221,460,345|00$214,210,345|12/04|ANGEL STU|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003|M3GAN 0000000000|0$12,000,000|00$181,134,416|1,509%|00$157,134,416|00$151,134,416|03/16|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004|Five Nights AF00|0$20,000,000|00$294,923,228|1,474%|00$254,923,228|00$244,923,228|12/21|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005|Super Mario Bros|$100,000,000|$1,363,250,724|1,363%|$1,163,250,724|$1,113,250,724|07/07|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006|Insidious: TRD00|0$16,000,000|00$186,258,928|1,164%|00$154,258,928|00$146,258,928|09/14|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007|Barbie0000000000|$145,000,000|$1,439,851,123|00993%|$1,149,851,123|$1,077,351,123|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008|Oppenheimer00000|$100,000,000|00$954,739,538|00955%|00$754,739,538|00$704,739,538|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009|Saw X00000000000|0$13,000,000|00$109,227,194|00840%|000$83,227,194|000$76,727,194|11/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010|Evil Dead Rise00|0$19,000,000|00$146,017,671|00769%|00$108,017,671|000$98,517,671|06/15|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011|The Nun II000000|0$38,500,000|00$268,057,328|00696%|00$191,057,328|00$171,807,328|11/16|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012|Spider-Man: AtSV|$100,000,000|00$682,624,639|00683%|00$482,624,639|00$432,624,639|09/14|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013|Paw Patrol000000|0$30,000,000|00$199,905,028|00666%|00$139,905,028|00$124,905,028|11/23|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014|Missing000000000|00$7,000,000|000$45,100,756|00644%|000$31,100,756|000$27,600,756|03/30|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015|Scream VI0000000|0$35,000,000|00$168,834,132|00482%|000$98,834,132|000$81,334,132|05/04|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016|The Exorcist: B0|0$30,000,000|00$136,891,846|00456%|000$76,891,846|000$61,891,846|11/30|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017|Mummies000000000|0$12,000,000|000$52,800,831|00440%|000$28,800,831|000$22,800,831|04/10|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018|John Wick: Ch. 4|$100,000,000|00$432,710,881|00433%|00$232,710,881|00$182,710,881|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019|The Pope's Exorc|0$18,000,000|000$72,913,467|00405%|000$36,913,467|000$27,913,467|06/29|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020|The Blackening00|00$5,000,000|000$18,563,767|00371%|0000$8,563,767|0000$6,063,767|07/27|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021|Creed III0000000|0$75,000,000|00$274,448,615|00366%|00$124,448,615|000$86,948,615|05/18|UNITED AR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022|Jesus Revolution|0$15,000,000|000$53,381,966|00356%|000$23,381,966|000$15,881,966|04/27|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023|Guardians: Vol 3|$250,000,000|00$845,468,744|00338%|00$345,468,744|00$220,468,744|08/10|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
024|Wonka00000000000|$125,000,000|00$400,621,147|00321%|00$150,621,147|000$88,121,147|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025|Hunger Games:S&S|$100,000,000|00$317,858,571|00318%|00$117,858,571|000$67,858,571|00000|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
026|Thanksgiving0000|0$13,000,000|000$45,906,306|00306%|000$15,906,306|0000$8,406,306|09/14|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027|Meg 2:The Trench|$129,000,000|00$394,266,444|00306%|00$136,266,444|000$71,766,444|10/12|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028|Knock at t Cabin|0$20,000,000|000$54,712,735|00274%|000$14,712,735|0000$4,712,735|03/16|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
029|The Equalizer 30|0$70,000,000|00$185,686,564|00265%|000$45,686,564|000$10,686,564|11/23|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
030|TMNT: Mutant May|0$70,000,000|00$180,351,905|00258%|000$40,351,905|0000$5,351,905|10/26|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
031|Cocaine Bear0000|0$35,000,000|000$89,966,573|00257%|000$19,966,573|0000$2,466,573|04/20|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
032|Elemental0000000|$200,000,000|00$486,663,342|00243%|000$86,663,342|000$13,336,657|09/28|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
033|The Boogeyman000|0$35,000,000|000$82,344,833|00235%|000$12,344,833|0000$5,155,167|07/27|20TH CENT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
034|Ant-Man & Wasp 2|$200,000,000|00$463,635,303|00232%|000$63,635,303|000$36,364,697|06/15|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
035|The Lttl Mermaid|$250,000,000|00$568,345,048|00227%|000$68,345,048|000$56,654,952|09/14|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
036|Transformers: Ri|$195,000,000|00$437,669,281|00224%|000$47,669,281|000$49,830,720|08/10|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
037|My Big Fat GW 30|0$18,000,000|000$39,102,319|00217%|0000$3,102,319|0000$5,897,681|10/26|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
038|Asteroid City000|0$25,000,000|000$53,973,170|00216%|0000$3,973,170|0000$8,526,830|09/07|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
039|Trolls Band Toge|0$95,000,000|00$200,885,841|00211%|000$10,885,841|000$36,614,159|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
040|Fast X0000000000|$340,000,000|00$714,581,860|00210%|000$34,581,860|00$135,418,140|07/13|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
041|Gran Turismo0000|0$60,000,000|00$117,847,120|00196%|0000$2,152,880|000$32,152,880|11/12|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
042|MI7: Part 100000|$290,000,000|00$566,325,939|00195%|000$13,674,061|00$158,674,061|09/21|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
043|Plane00000000000|0$25,000,000|000$47,855,350|00191%|0000$2,144,650|000$14,644,650|03/02|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
044|A Haunt in Venic|0$60,000,000|00$113,597,610|00189%|0000$6,402,390|000$36,402,390|11/16|20TH CENT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
045|No Hard Feelings|0$45,000,000|000$83,453,541|00185%|0000$6,546,459|000$29,046,459|08/13|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
046|Migration0000000|0$72,000,000|00$117,439,754|00163%|000$26,560,246|000$62,560,246|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
047|Anyone But You00|0$25,000,000|000$38,013,180|00152%|000$11,986,820|000$24,486,820|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
048|Book Club 200000|0$20,000,000|000$29,120,691|00146%|000$10,879,309|000$20,879,309|06/22|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
049|80 For Brady0000|0$28,000,000|000$40,266,090|00144%|000$15,733,910|000$29,733,910|03/23|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
050|Magic Mike 30000|0$40,000,000|000$56,270,502|00141%|000$23,729,498|000$43,729,498|03/23|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
051|Dungeons & Drago|$150,000,000|00$207,582,323|00138%|000$92,417,677|00$167,417,677|06/01|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
052|Aquaman 20000000|$205,000,000|00$274,507,437|00134%|00$135,492,563|00$237,992,563|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
053|The Flash0000000|$200,000,000|00$266,516,138|00133%|00$133,483,862|00$233,483,862|08/17|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
054|AIR0000000000000|0$70,000,000|000$89,448,266|00128%|000$50,551,734|000$85,551,734|06/01|AMAZON ST|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
055|Indiana Jones 50|$300,000,000|00$381,561,976|00127%|00$218,438,024|00$368,438,024|09/14|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
056|6500000000000000|0$45,000,000|000$56,241,027|00125%|000$33,758,973|000$56,258,973|05/11|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
057|The Creator00000|0$80,000,000|000$98,763,742|00123%|000$61,236,258|00$101,236,258|11/21|20TH CENT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
058|Blue Beetle00000|$120,000,000|00$128,772,124|00107%|00$111,227,876|00$171,227,876|11/02|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
059|Shazam II0000000|$125,000,000|00$132,192,362|00106%|00$117,807,638|00$180,307,638|05/04|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
060|Napoleon00000000|$200,000,000|00$206,995,956|00104%|00$193,004,044|00$293,004,044|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
061|Wish000000000000|$200,000,000|00$176,985,161|00088%|00$223,014,839|00$323,014,839|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
062|Strays0000000000|0$46,000,000|000$35,955,725|00078%|000$56,044,275|000$79,044,275|9/28|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
063|Killers of TFM00|$200,000,000|00$156,247,191|00078%|00$243,752,809|00$343,752,809|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
064|The Marvels00000|$274,800,000|00$199,973,768|00073%|00$349,626,232|00$487,026,232|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
065|Haunted Mansion0|$157,750,000|00$114,797,989|00073%|00$200,702,011|00$279,577,011|11/02|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
066|Are U There God?|0$30,000,000|000$21,498,192|00072%|000$38,501,808|000$53,501,808|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
067|Ruby Gillman0000|0$70,000,000|000$46,142,939|00066%|000$93,857,061|00$128,857,061|08/17|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
068|Operation Fortun|0$50,000,000|000$27,868,441|00056%|000$72,131,559|000$97,131,559|03/23|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
069|The Boys in Boat|0$50,000,000|000$26,861,247|00054%|000$73,138,753|000$98,138,753|00000|MGM000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
070|Expend4bles00000|$100,000,000|000$51,133,603|00051%|00$148,866,397|00$198,866,397|10/26|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
071|The Color Purple|$100,000,000|000$49,035,028|00049%|00$150,964,972|00$200,964,972|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
072|LastV ot Demeter|0$45,000,000|000$20,397,648|00045%|000$69,602,352|000$92,102,352|09/07|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
073|The Covenant0000|0$55,000,000|000$20,377,413|00037%|000$89,622,587|00$117,122,587|06/01|MGM000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
074|Renfield00000000|0$86,203,077|000$26,874,347|00031%|00$145,531,807|00$188,633,346|05/18|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0NA|Champions0000000|0$??,???,???|000$18,852,343|000??%|000$??,???,???|000$??,???,???|05/04|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (STUDIOS)
By PROFIT ACCORDING TO 2.5x Rule of Thumb (RoT)

Up to date as of 01/04/2024*


00000000000000000000000| COMBINED0000000| COMBINED00000000| %GROSS0|0000000000000000|0000000000000000|
00000000000000000000000| PRODUCTION00000| WORLDWIDE0000000| OVER000| 2.0x RoT0000000| 2.5x RoT0000000|
Rnk | STUDIO00000000000| BUDGETS00000000| GROSS00000000000| BUDGET0| PROFIT/LOSS0000| PROFIT/LOSS0000|

001 | UNIVERSAL00000000|0$1,071,203,077 |00$4,237,897,174 |000396% |0$2,095,491,020 |0$1,559,889,482 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002 | WARNER BROS.00000|0$1,258,500,000 |00$3,608,908,135 |000287% |0$1,091,908,135 |000$462,658,135 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003 | SONY PICTURES0000|000$601,000,000 |00$1,429,753,682 |000287% |000$519,041,484 |000$218,541,484 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004 | ANGEL STUDIOS0000|0000$14,500,000 |0000$250,460,345 |01,727% |000$221,460,345 |000$214,210,345 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005 | UNITED ARTISTS000|0000$75,000,000 |0000$274,448,615 |000366% |000$124,448,615 |0000$86,948,615 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006 | A2400000000000000|00000$4,500,000 |00000$92,039,206 |02,045% |0000$83,039,206 |0000$80,789,206 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007 | LIONSGATE00000000|000$438,000,000 |00$1,080,097,965 |000247% |000$204,097,965 |0000$14,902,035 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008 | FOCUS FEATURES000|0000$63,000,000 |0000$141,048,523 |000224% |00000$3,803,820 |0000$35,303,820 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009 | AMAZON STUDIOS000|0000$70,000,000 |00000$89,448,266 |000128% |0000$50,551,734 |0000$85,551,734 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010 | 20TH CENTURY STUD|000$175,000,000 |0000$294,706,185 |000168% |0000$55,293,815 |000$142,793,815 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011 | MGM00000000000000|000$105,000,000 |00000$47,238,660 |000045% |000$162,761,340 |000$215,261,340 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 | PARAMOUNT PICTURE|000$998,000,000 |00$1,957,181,889 |000196% |0000$38,818,111 |000$537,818,111 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013 | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,832,550,000 |00$3,237,431,331 |000177% |000$427,668,669 |0$1,343,943,669 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000 | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$6,706,253,077 |0$17,031,947,778 |000254% |0$3,600,589,281 |000$247,462,743 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,832,550,000 |00$3,237,431,331 |000177% |000$427,668,669 |0$1,343,943,669 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | Peter Pan&W Bdgt0|000$170,000,000 |00000000000000$0 |0000000 |000$170,000,000 |000$170,000,000 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | W. DISNEY REVISED|0$2,002,550,000 |00$3,237,431,331 |000152% |000$597,668,669 |0$1,513,943,669 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REV | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$6,876,253,077 |0$17,031,947,778 |000251% |0$3,430,589,281 |0000$77,462,743 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Wednesday, August 30, 2023 11:23 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


It could be in big trouble, in the past they would rely on some big Harry Potter or Avengers EndGame to turn it around with one Blockbuster earning

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Wednesday, August 30, 2023 3:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
It could be in big trouble, in the past they would rely on some big Harry Potter or Avengers EndGame to turn it around with one Blockbuster earning



Yeah. I think that DC with the example of Barbie vs. all of its Superhero flops this year is a great example of what's going on here. Sure... Unless some unexpected late-comer shows up and takes the top spot in 2023 like the late release of Avatar 2 last year did, Warner Bros. has the bragging rights in 2023 for the highest grossing movie of 2023 by far once Barbie is out of theaters.

But in reality, Barbie just saved their asses and kept them from being Disney, leaving them not much financially to show for it otherwise.


I think once the year is over I'm going to do a breakdown per studio for how much they made or lost using both the 2.0x Rule of Thumb as well as the 2.5x Rule of Thumb.

To my knowledge, that's something that nobody has ever done before and I think it would be a lot more interesting than how much money Hollywood made as a whole in 2023.

Yes... I do expect Hollywood to make money in 2023 overall.

By the end of 2023 I also suspect that there will be so many movies added to the list that we basically cover most the top US movies out of the 120 or so Worldwide.

As you can see from my lists, there are some movies that I can't even track since I haven't been able to even find a production budget figure for them. And then there are other movies that I can't put on all the lists because figure like "worldwide opening weekend" are seemingly impossible to come by. Such is the nature of a lot of indie movies that get included since they ranked higher up the list than a lot of big-budget movies, particularly those that only got a limited release at first but then opened Wide after doing so much better than expected.

I will try to find that info again before these lists are final for the year, as well as go back and see if I missed any lesser-known movies that should be on the list for as deep as we go on the 2023 Top Grossing Worldwide list.


Who knows? If Haken keeps the site going and I haven't lost interest by then, I might do 2024 for comparison. I won't bother if Democrats shut the world down for Covid 20 though, for obvious reasons.

I'd thought about doing prior years as well, but because of Covid 19 I really don't see the point. This is the first year where the Box Office is behaving as it did pre-Covid shutdowns, and although Superhero Movies were doing gangbusters in 2019 before all that happened, there are many who still claim that the only reason Hollywood is failing is because of the change in behavior of theatergoers because of the lockdowns while dismissing any talks of wokeness and lazy storytelling being the actual culprits, and quite frankly I have little interest in undergoing the massive task of putting a similar group of lists together for 2019 when I suspect that it won't do anything to change their minds on that issue.

Although...

It would certainly show a stark contrast between how much money Hollywood USED to make pre-Covid lockdowns and pre-Bidenflation. It would also show that only 4 years ago it made a lot of sense to spend $200 Million or more on movie after movie when you were quite regularly pulling in more than $1 Billion Worldwide.

I would imagine that the amount of money big studios made on their big budget movies dwarfed what smaller studios and/or smaller budget movies made in 2019, when it's quite obvious from the lists I've made this year that the opposite is now the case with very few exceptions.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Wednesday, August 30, 2023 10:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Articles giving credence to the Rule of Thumb increasing to 2.5x in 2023:


Disney’s Harsh New Reality: Costly Film Flops, Creative Struggles and a Shrinking Global Box Office

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/disney-box-office-failures-indiana-
jones-elemental-ant-man-1235660409

Archived Link: https://archive.ph/82ZmN


Disney set to lose near $1 billion as Indiana Jones 5 one of biggest box office bombs ever

Disney have faced a summer of box office disasters bringing the studio's total losses to almost $1 billion. This includes Harrison Ford's Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny being set to go down as one of the biggest flops in Hollywood history.

https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1797909/Disney-box-offic
e-bombs-1-billion-Indiana-Jones-5


Archived Link: https://archive.ph/pH4kp


Disney Is The Big Loser Of Summer 2023 - Examining Its $900 Million Worth Of Box Office Disappointments

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Little Mermaid, and Elemental have all been huge box office failures for Disney - so what's going on?

https://screenrant.com/disney-movies-summer-2023-box-office-bombs-disa
ppointments
/

Archived Link: https://archive.ph/w2cCK


I will update and elaborate on this issue at a later date. I just wanted to have a place to gather these things here.

If anybody sees any more articles with that message, please let me know and I'll add them here.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Friday, September 1, 2023 3:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Maybe it's too early to tell still, but I think Sony just released a flop with Tran Tourismo. Fortunately for them, they only spent $60 Million on the production budget. But seeing their first Sub $1 Million day only 7 days into the run has to be extremely disappointing.

It's doing better Internationally than Domestically, so maybe the International numbers will save the movie when they get posted. Right now it hasn't even made its production budget back, and if we're working with the 2.5x Rule of Thumb now, it's going to need $150 Million to break even. It's a long way from the $91 Million it still needs to do that.

After only 7 days it's not pulling in much more money that Blue Beetle.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Friday, September 1, 2023 4:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It appears I'm still not going to be able to update the list of movies that ended their run much this weekend.

According to The-Numbers, Miles Morales 2 finally exit theaters. That's it.

Super Mario Bros, The Little Mermaid, Asteroid City, Indy 5 and Elemental still stubbornly hold on, with Elemental inexplicably adding 1,925 new theaters this weekend for a total of 2,160 theaters! (That's a big mistake).



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Saturday, September 2, 2023 1:17 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Some films made big profit but 2023 might be worse than other years

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Sunday, September 3, 2023 7:23 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Looks like Warner Bros new hero James Gunn just deleted all his facebook social media?


James Gunn's 11-Year-Old Facebook Comments On Previous Batman Films Resurface
https://gamerant.com/james-gunn-batman-comments-the-dark-knight-tim-bu
rton
/

?
https://twitter.com/bluboy43/status/1695928958116589971

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Sunday, September 3, 2023 10:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Looks like Warner Bros new hero James Gunn just deleted all his facebook social media?


James Gunn's 11-Year-Old Facebook Comments On Previous Batman Films Resurface
https://gamerant.com/james-gunn-batman-comments-the-dark-knight-tim-bu
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https://twitter.com/bluboy43/status/1695928958116589971




I'll say this up front. I don't like James Gunn. Dude has always rubbed me the wrong way.

But getting cancelled for that is kind of stupid. He didn't have a wokified opinion in there. He just didn't care for the Tim Burton movies and thought the Nolan movies were overrated.

I disagree and agree with that assessment. The Nolan movies were fine. Obviously number two was better with Heath Leger as Joker. I didn't even bother watching the 3rd one. I think that Nolan's take on Batman was highly overrated.

I loved Burton's Batman though, and Michael Keaton will always be my Batman. Elfman's sountrack was epic, so I don't know what the hell Gunn was talking about there.

And though nobody has replied to it, I wrote my review on The Flash here:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65730

It's not the "Greatest Superhero Movie Ever Made", but it does rank high on the list.




And here's the thing...

Recently I heard a joke that somebody said if you want to make a reboot of a franchise, the only thing you need to do is have a bunch of actors sit in a room and quote lines from the original movies, because that is all fans want and they'll be angry if you don't give them that.

Yeah... Sadly, that's kind of true.

And getting Gunn to disappear off social media for saying over a decade ago that he didn't like something is just feeding into that.

We shouldn't conflate dislike for the craft behind a previous film with HATE for a film like we got recently with Rachel Ziegler's comments about the original Snow White. One is coming from the mind of a seasoned director who has their own take on Batman that is different than what came before him, and the other is the opinions of a young, unproven, self-hating half-white actress shitting all over the entire story of the cartoon that put Disney on the map 100 years ago, which itself was taken from a story written in the early 1800s.

Batman in comics and in media has gone through many, many transformations in the 80+ years since the character was conceived. And as it branched out into different forms of media, all of these iterations have had influences on the others. Tim Burton's Gotham lead to what might arguably be the greatest children's cartoon ever made with Batman: The Animated Series. And that series created Harley Quinn from the ether, who has since gone on to appear in the comics and movies.


The only Diversity that matters is Diversity of Thought.

If you hate James Gunn for hating your favorite comic book movies, then just do what I do with all the woke bullshit and don't watch whatever is coming out next. How many Indiana Jones movies were there? Three. How many Terminator movies were there? Two. How many Star Wars movies were there? Three.

If somebody like James Cameron can come out and wipe all the Terminator movies out of the universe by saying they're not canon after T2 and releasing his own series-destroying take on a third movie, well... we as the paying customer can decide for ourselves what is and what is not canon when it comes to our favorite franchises too. An even better example of this would be Kathleen Kennedy coming out and telling everybody that the vast Lucas-Approved Extended Star Wars Universe consisting of hundreds of books and thousands of new characters were no longer going to be canon after Disney bought the rights and then trying to claim there was no source material to work from when their horrible woke trilogy was horrible. That will probably go down in history as the best example of this phenomena.


But to me... The Flash is canon. It is a followup to the two greatest Batman films ever put to screen.


And honestly, the two most cringe moments of the movie were the unabashed fan-service. Second place goes to Keaton saying "I am Batman", where I said to my dad "He said the thing". But at least that made sense in the context of the movie. The cringiest thing about it was when The Flash asked Batman if he would fight along side of them and after pausing to reflect he says, very calmly "If you wanna get nuts. Let's get nuts"... which lead to nothing more than an audible groan from me when he said it. Yes... We remember that line. It's probably most people's favorite quotable line from the movie. But here it just came off as sad and desperate in a movie that didn't need sad desperation.

I did not cringe when they used parts of Elfman's score in the Batcave though. I'm not sure if Gunn has since changed his mind about that soundtrack and if he gave the green light for it being in the movie, or if that was a studio head decision. Was it the director's idea? Who knows? In any event, using that music in the scenes it was used in was the right decision.

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Monday, September 4, 2023 1:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I can't remember if Hollywood and the number crunchers take holiday Mondays off or not. I might not be able to update any of the lists until tomorrow.

If that's the case, I might just update the numbers with Monday included rather than go through the insanely stupid task of looking up each movie individually and subtracting the Monday take from the total and just make a note on the new lists that this was a holiday weekend and Monday was included because that's how the industry does things.


To note, it's interesting how the Monday projections work on a holiday weekend. A lot of the projections are up, but some notable movies are not. It's fully expected to find that Sound of Freedom is lagging behind with updated numbers after 3 weeks of this already happening, but you won't find projections from Warner Bros. for Barbie or Blue Beetle on Monday's projection list either.

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Monday, September 4, 2023 2:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I said in one of the other threads that Oppenheimer was never going to make a Billion dollars.

That's still true. It's pretty much run out of gas at $853 Million, but it's probably going to do over $900 Million pretty easily, which was a lot more than I would have given it credit for a month ago when I said it wasn't going to hit $1 Billion.



I'm going to say that 2023 is the year of movies that probably have no business being at the top of the Worldwide Box Office list. Two movies based on toys and video games with the top two spots and an allegedly highly fictionalized biopic about a topic most people who went to see it didn't even ever hear the name of the titular character before the Barbieheimer meme was a thing.

There are only two comic book properties in the top 10 this year at number 4 and number 6... One of them underperformed and the other one was was a cartoon. The only other comic book movie coming out this year (if it doesn't get pushed back to 2024) is The Marvels, which probably won't make the top 10.

Two of the top 10 flicks are Chinese movies.

Fast X is fifth place, but after Production and Marketing it only actually grossed the studio around $35 Million; possibly actually losing up to $160 Million if the 2.5x RoT applies. The same story more or less with The Little Mermaid in 9th place, which made Disney $61 Million but could have actually lost Disney up to $64 Million with the 2.5x RoT.



Mission Impossible 7 rounds out the list at number 10, but each day that passes makes it look more and more like it's a box office flop because of its monstrous $295 Million budget that it's still $30 Million away from doubling.

It's been a wild year so far.



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Tuesday, September 5, 2023 9:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


We still haven't gotten reconciled lists for the weekend. Some movies are still showing projections.

If they're not going to do it, I'm not going to drive myself crazy with it.

I may just do them tomorrow.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2023 11:14 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


08/28/2023 Lists.

I'm going to do the same thing in here as I did with the Disney thread and keep all the current numbers in the 1st post, while just quoting the old lists every week before I update them.

The Description for what these lists are will stay with last week's post that I'm quoting here. Once the year is over I'll add something back, but for now I want it to just have the information as it comes.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
These are lists I've been updating weekly for going on 2 months now in the Sound of Freedom Thread, but I felt that they deserve their own thread now. The Big Budget Hollywood Movie is Dead.

As you can see from List 3, after nearly $1 Billion in movie losses so far this year on films that have completed their Domestic Box Office run in 2023, Hollywood has only seen a $450k profit overall and it's almost September. And this is when you use the 2.0x Rule of Thumb stating a movie needs to make twice its Production Budget just to break even. There is plenty of evidence out there now that the actual Rule of Thumb is at least 2.5 times in 2023, including an article by Variety that said Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania lost Tens of Millions of Dollars for Disney when I had it as a $60 Million Plus Winner, and the fact that the producers of Barbie came out and said that the Marketing Budget for the movie was $150 Million, which was $5 Million more than the Production Budget was. After theater takes, it is likely that Barbie needed 3 Times the Production Budget to break even (or $435 Million).

Granted, the wins from both of the top earners of 2023 have not been taken into account yet, so they will be getting a nice, big $2 Billion Plus bump when they exit the theaters, but there are a whole lot of big-money losers that are still showing in theaters that haven't been taken into account either, and once the year is over I will be updating to show the 2.5x Rule of Thumb as well which paints a much darker picture for the industry overall.

This will be the spot that I use to update these lists going forward. I will still put the daily lists in the Sound of Freedom thread.



08/28/2022 LISTS:

LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

As of 08/28/2023, this list includes Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend for all American made films currently in the global top 80 that had Production Budget info available.

The only new addition this week is Gran Turismo.


1. Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3. M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4. Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
5. Barbie / Budget: $145,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 246%
6. Talk to me / Budget: $4,500,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 222%
7. Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
9. The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
10. Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
11. Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
12. John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
13. Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
14. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
15. The Blackening / Budget: $5,000,000 / WWO: $6,000,000 / 120%
16. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
17. Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
18. Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
19. Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
20. Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
21. Gran Turismo / Budget: $60,000,000 / WWO: $54,000,000 / 90%
22. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
23. Mission Impossible: Dead Reck Pt1 / Budget: $290,000,000 / WWO: $235,000,000 / 81%
24. Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
25. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant M / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $52,000,000 / 74%
26. The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
27. The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $128,000,000 / 64%
28. The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
29. Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
30. Book Club: The Next Chapter / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 50%
31. No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
32. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Th / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
33. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
34. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
35. AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
36. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
37. Blue Beetle / Budget: $120,000,000 / WWO: $44,000,000 / 37%
38. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
39. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
40. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
41. Strays / Budget: $46,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 22%
42. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
43. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
44. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
45. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant / Budget: $55,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 13%
46. Renfield / Budget: $86,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 12%

I CAN'T FIND OPENING WEEKEND STATS FOR THESE MOVIES:
Asteroid City / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Missing / Budget: $7,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Operation Fortune / Budget: $50,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?

*NOTE: I couldn't even find production budgets for the Demon Slayer anime film or the Woody Harrelson movie Champions, so I'm not even putting them on the lists unless I do. If anybody happens upon any info for either of those movies, or the opening weekend numbers for those two and the movies listed above, send me a link and I'll update the list.



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

*NOTE: I went back on all the old movies marked "[FINAL]" on 08/28/2023 to see whatever changes Bruce may have made to them. Several movies, notably M3GAN, have had percentages changed.

To make comparisons easier in the future, I will archive the Top 100 Movies List for comparison the next time I do this.

Archived link as of 08/28/2023: https://archive.ph/rMaie


WINNERS:
1. M3GAN made 1,508% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros Movie made 1,358% of its production budget of $100 Million.
3. Sound of Freedom made 1,300% of its production budget of $14 Million.
4. Talk to Me made 1,178% of its production budget of $4.5 Million.
5. Insidious: The Red Door made 1,163% of its production budget of $16 Million.
6. Barbie made 923% of its production budget of $145 Million.
7. Oppenheimer made 778% of its production budget of $100 Million.
8. Evil Dead Rise made 768% of its production budget of $19 Million. [FINAL]
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse made 687% of its production budget of $100 Million.
10. Missing made 642% of its production budget of $7 Million. [FINAL]
11. Scream IV made 483% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
12. Mummies made 442% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
13. John Wick: Chapter 4 made 432% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
14. The Pope's Exorcist made 406% of its production budget of $18 Million. [FINAL]
15. Creed III made 365% of its production budget of $75 Million. [FINAL]
16. The Blackening made 360% of its production budget of $5 Million. [FINAL]
17. Jesus Revolution made 353% of its production budget of $15 Million. [FINAL]
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 made 338% of its production budget of $250 Million. [FINAL]
19. Knock at the Cabin made 275% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
20. Meg 2: The Trench made 274% of its production budget of $129 Million.
21. Cocaine Bear made 254% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
22. The Boogeyman made 234% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
23. Ant Man & the Wasp: Quantum made 232% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
24. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts made 225% of its production budget of $195 Million. [FINAL]
25. The Little Mermaid made 223% of its production budget of $250 Million.
26. Elemental made 235% of its production budget of $200 Million.
27. Fast X made 211% of its production budget of $340 Million. [FINAL]
28. Asteroid City made 200% of its production budget of $25 Million.


LOSERS:
The movies which haven't doubled their production budget to cover marketing budgets and theater takes. Unless marked with [FINAL], they still have an opportunity make the Winners list.

1. Renfield made 31% of its production budget of $86 Million. [FINAL]
2. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant made 36% of its production budget of $55 Million. [FINAL]
3. Strays made 48% of its production budget of $46 Million.
4. Operation Fortune made 56% of its production budget of $50 Million. [FINAL]
5. Haunted Mansion made 58% of its production budget of $158 Million.
6. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 60% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
7. Blue Beetle made 68% of its production budget of $120 Million.
8. Are You There God? IM, M made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million. [FINAL]
9. Gran Turismo made 90% of its production budget of $60 Million.
10. Shazam: FotG only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
11. Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 124% of its production budget of $300 Million.
12. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
13. Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
14. AIR only made 127% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
15. The Flash made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
16. Dungeons & Dragon: HAT only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
17. Book Club: TSC made 140% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
18. 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million. [FINAL]
19. No Hard Feelings made 184% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
20. Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million. [FINAL]
21. Mission Impossible: DR Part 1 made 190% of its production budget of $290 Million.
22. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM made 194% of its production budget of $70 Million.


LIST 3: TOTAL STUDIO PROFITS AFTER MOVIE EXITS BOX OFFICE (BASED OFF 2X RULE OF THUMB):


[Worldwide Box Office - (Production Budget *2)]

*NOTE TO SELF: I updated all of these numbers on 08/28/2023 as well. Refer to the archived link above in List 2 when updating these numbers in the future to save a lot of work.

1. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 + $344,321,673
2. John Wick: Chapter 4 + $232,249,673
3. M3GAN + $157,009,450
4. Creed III + $124,448,615
5. Evil Dead Rise + $108,017,671
6. Scream IV + $98,834,132
7. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania + $63,635,303
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts + $47,910,430
9. Fast X + $38,953,575
10. The Pope's Exorcist + $36,913,467
11. Missing +$31,100,756
12. Mummies + $29,172,225
13. Jesus Revolution + $23,113,900
14. Cocaine Bear + $19,301,105
15. Knock at the Cabin + $14,712,735
16. The Bogeyman + $12,344,833
17. The Blackening +$7,707,207

TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,389,746,750

LOSERS:
1. Renfield -$145,273,500
2. The Flash -$131,931,349
3. Shazam: Fury of the Gods -$117,807,638
4. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken -$97,525,786
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves -$92,417,677
6. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant -$89,622,587
7. Operation Fortune -$72,452,850
8. AIR -$50,551,734
9. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret -$38,501,808
10. 65 - $33,758,973
11. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $33,729,498
12. 80 for Brady -$15,733,910
13. Book Club: The Second Chapter -$11,525,071
14. No Hard Feelings -$6,536,124
15. Plane -$2,144,650

*NEW ADDITIONS 08/28: NONE.

TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$939,513,155

TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$450,233,595

*NOTE: This is the total Worldwide Box Office profits using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb. I will eventually get around to adding the 2.5x Rule of Thumb for comparison. I may wait until the year is over so I'm not re-doing all that math every time Bruce adds or subtracts international numbers after the movie finishes its run.



LIST 4: DAYS IT TOOK FOR THE FILM TO BREAK EVEN (FOR 2.0X RULE OF THUMB):

Short Explanation: Take the movie's % of Domestic/International, consider that the constant split for the entire run of the movie. Use those percentages to figure out what day it made enough in the US to have made twice the production budget with the international figure on that day. Tie breaker for days goes to the movie that made the most money above two times the production budget.

(The least scientific of the three lists, but all we can work with given the abysmal state of keeping track of international numbers in 2023)

Also, until a movie is finished, this list would bounce around all over the place, so I'm not going to update any of these numbers going forward until a movie is [FINAL] and the movie will just stay in whatever place it falls on the day I put it on this list until the movie ends its theatrical run.

1. Insidious: The Red Door: 1 Day / $15M Domestic : $14M Needed (45%D / 55%I)
2. M3GAN: 1 Day / $12M Domestic : $12M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
3. Super Mario Bros. Movie: 3 Days / $113M Domestic : $84M Needed (42%D / 58%I)
4. Evil Dead Rise: 3 Days / $19M Domestic : $17M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
5. Talk to Me: 3 Days / $9M Domestic : $8M Needed (86%D / 14%I)
6. Barbie: 4 Days / $162M Domestic : $133M Needed (46%D / 54%I)
7. Miles Morales 2: 4 Days / $120M Domestic : $112M Needed (56%D / 44%I)
8. Oppenheimer: 4 Days / $95M Domestic : $88M Needed (44%D / 56%I)
9. Scream IV: 4 Days / $48M Domestic : $45M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
10. Sound of Freedom: 5 Days / $34M Domestic : $28M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
11. The Pope's Exorcist: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (27%D / 73%I) [FINAL]
12. Missing: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (73%D / 27%I)
13. John Wick: Chapter 4: 5 Days / $86M Domestic : $86M Needed (43%D / 57%I) [FINAL]
14. Creed III: 9 Days / $94M Domestic : $86M Needed (57%D / 43%I) [FINAL]
15. Jesus Revolution: 10 Days / $30M Domestic : $29M Needed (98%D / 2%I) [FINAL]
16. Meg 2: The Trench: 10 Days / $54M Domestic: $54M Needed (21%D / 69%I)
17. The Blackening: 10 Days / $10M Domestic : $10M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: 11 Days / $220M Domestic : $215M Needed (43%D / 57%I)
19. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: 12 Days / $107M Domestic : $107M Needed (37%D / 63%I)
20. Knock at the Cabin: 15 Days / $27M Domestic : $27M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
21. Ant Man & the Wasp: Q: 17 Days / $187M Domestic : $184M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
22. Cocaine Bear: 17 Days / $52M Domestic : $50M Needed (72%D / 28%I) [FINAL]
23. Mummies: 20 Days / $2M Domestic : $2M Needed (8%D / 92%I) [FINAL]
24. Fast X: 23 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (20%D / 80%I) [FINAL]
25: The Bogeyman: 23 Days / $37M Domestic : $36M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
26. The Little Mermaid: 30 Days / $268M Domestic : $265M Needed (53%D / 47%I)
27. Elemental: 38 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (34%D / 66%I)
20. Asteroid City 73 Days [ACTUAL] / $50 Million Worldwide of $50 Million Needed on Day 73

2023 LIKELY EVENTUAL WINNERS:
1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $136M in total vs $140M needed.
2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 - $552M in total vs $580M needed.
3. Gran Turismo - $54M in total vs. $120M needed.

2023 MOVIES LIKELY (OR CERTAINLY IF FINAL) TO NEVER BREAK EVEN:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $371M of $600M needed.
2. Haunted Mansion - $92M of $316M needed.
3. Blue Beetle - $82M of $240M needed.
4. Renfield - $27M of $172M needed. [FINAL]
5. The Flash - $268M of $400M needed. [FINAL]
6. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $132M of $250M needed. [FINAL]
7. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $42M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $208M of $300M needed. [FINAL]
9. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - $20M of $110M needed. [FINAL]
10. Operation Fortune - $28M of $100M needed. [FINAL]
11. AIR - $90M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
12. Strays - $22M of $92M needed.
13. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret - $21M of $60M needed. [FINAL]
14. 65 - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
15. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
16. Book Club: The Second Chapter - $28M of $40M needed. [FINAL]
17. 80 for Brady - $40M of $48M needed. [FINAL]
18. No Hard Feelings - $84M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
19. Plane - $48M of $50M needed. [FINAL]



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Wednesday, September 6, 2023 12:29 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


NOTES ON 09/05/2023:

Miles Morales 2 exited cinemas last weekend and now takes its place as the highest money maker of 2023 so far using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb and subtracting that from the final worldwide take for a final $486,760,673 2.0xRoT profit. This number is likely to fluctuate within a few million for the next month or two while everything is reconciled.

It wasn't even close. It took 1st place from Guardians of the Galaxy 3, which had been number one for most of the year with $142 Million less than Miles Morales 2 made.

And with that, the surplus money that MM2 just made has more than doubled the $450 Million profit that Hollywood had been floundering with on the movies that finished their run, bringing it close to its first billion in profit... Needing 243 days to get there.


TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,876,507,733

TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$939,513,155

TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$936,994,578


Now... We've still got some real sinkers coming up for retirement that will eat away at that number too, but MM2's contribution should easily ensure that along with Barbie and SMB we don't get to witness Hollywood actually lose money in 2023.

However... this is all using 2.0xRoT, with 2.5xRoT being much more likely in 2023. Hollywood should still turn a profit once I calculate all of those numbers, but I don't imagine that Hollywood in general is very happy right now. Some studios are probably very happy with the results so far though. I do want to do a studio by studio breakdown for the year once everything wraps up.



Meanwhile, as much as it pains me to do it, I've moved MI7 from the "Likely Eventual Winners" on List 4 to the list of movies likely to never break even. $295 Million for the budget was a huge mistake, and even Tom Cruise can't pull in over a billion on every movie he does.

My one hope here is that since the two films were made together they didn't split the budget evenly between the two of them and we find out next year when Part II releases that they only had $100 Million on that budget and it becomes a pretty big winner. But if they actually spent $295 Million on each part, I think it's probably safe to say that's the last time we're ever going to see Tom Cruise playing Ethan Hunt.


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Thursday, September 7, 2023 11:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


How about that...

Super Mario Bros. is FINALLY retired from the box office.

They still managed to keep the lights on for The Little Mermaid, Elemental and Indy 5 though.

They made $18, $19, and $63 per theater on Wednesday.

How embarrassing for them.

I told you dumb shits that it was a stupid idea to raise the theaters for Elemental to 2,155 this weekend. Then you went right ahead and raised it to 4,080 per theater on Sunday!!!! Stupid. And not a huge embarrassment for you.

Indy 5 loses 36 theaters and will be showing in an even 100.

The Little mermaid loses 206 theaters and will be showing in only 45.

Elemental loses 1,445 (they're not including all those extra Sunday theaters that got it up to 4,080 here) and it will be somehow inexplicably showing in 710 theaters.



Sound of Freedom is still in 710 theaters this week. That's the first time in 3 weeks that Bruce remembered to put it on the theater count list.



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Thursday, September 7, 2023 11:55 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh...

I don't really care about them not retiring movies when they should anymore now. I now have a way to track all of this stuff very easily daily if I wanted to. Not only the movies down to the exact dollar amount, but I can track how much each studio has spent on production budgets in total, how much their movies have grossed in total, and how much money they've made or lost on all of their movies using both the 2.0x and 2.5x Rule of Thumb.

Disney's lost the most money this year by far, but it's not the worst studio percentage-wise, believe it or not. Hell... if you don't include the $170 Million it threw away on Peter Pan and Wendy, it's actually a slight winner with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, and there are 3 studios that lose on either RoT which are beneath Disney percentage-wise. We do count Peter Pan and Wendy though, so there are 4 losing studios in 2023 so far.

Universal is Top Dawg so far in 2023, and it's not even close.

Sure... It put out this years biggest box office flop by far with Renfield, but it also put out M3GAN, Super Mario Bros and Oppenheimer to name a few.

Warner Bros. is probably crying right now. It's got Barbie and some other minor winners, but with the 2.5 RoT after three Comic Book movie flops in a row, it's sitting at only around $500 Million profit for the year (if memory serves). And we all know that Barbie specifically had to make more than 2.5x too since they came out and bragged that their marketing budget was $150 Million after admitting they actually spent $145 Million to produce the damn thing. They're probably more like $300 Million in the black for 2023.

A24 is the winner by percentage with Talk To Me being the only movie I'm tracking.

Angel Studios is 2nd place by percentage with Sound of Freedom being the only movie I'm tracking.

I know for sure AS put out at least one other flick this year. I'm pretty sure that A24 did as well. They're just not on my lists because they're not in the top 100 grossing films of 2023. Maybe I'll add more as time goes on.



Not sure when I'm going to actually update these lists on this website anymore, but I will get around to it eventually. The amount of new data I have at my fingertips with this is pretty astounding and I do look forward to sharing it with all of you.

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Friday, September 8, 2023 12:29 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I've always liked Denzel Washington and I've heard a lot of good things about the Equalizer series of movies, but I'm wondering if the 3rd one is going to be a success in 2023 or not.

Equalizer 1 had a Production Budget of $55 Million and grossed $192,903,624, or around 350% of the budget. Not only that, but it was 9 years ago when people still bought a lot of physical media, so it saw another $42 Million in DVD and BluRay sales.

Equalizer 2 had a $77 Million budget and grossed $190,376,181, or around 250% of the budget. Still a winner back in 2018 with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, but not nearly as successful as the first movie with the $27 Million smaller budget. Physical media sales had started winding down by that point too, and it only saw $26 Million in DVD/BluRay sales.


Now, Bruce doesn't have the Production Budget of E3 up, but I've heard that it cost $70 Million. I'm hoping for the movie that this is the case or it's even higher than the actual budget was. Either way, they made a smart decision to not go nuts and raise the budget for E3 to $100 Million from $77 Million and it looks like they may have even dialed it back a bit.


By no means is it doing terrible, with nearly $76 Million in the bank after only 7 days and only 3 more days until more international numbers get reported... but it does have a much larger Domestic Box Office than International right now (about 2/3rds) than the first two movies had. (52% for E1 and 54% for E2).

So unless there is some delay in International reporting going on here, or unless there are still countries it's going to be shown in that it hasn't yet, this one might be in trouble. I do see that it has yet to open in Argentina, Brazil and Japan. The first movie was so old that Bruce doesn't have any in-depth International numbers for it, but those 3 territories did somewhere in the area of $10 Million for the sequel. The International list for E2 is about twice to even three times as long as they currently have up for E3 as well, so maybe the worry here is about nothing.

But it's seeing a pretty rapid drop of in Domestic Numbers compared to E2 right now, with the last 3 days this week making about a Million less per day than E2 did.

With Horror movies seeing somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and The Nun II coming out this weekend, The Equalizer might be mortally wounded already.

Even with a $70M budget less than the predecessor, it has a big hill to climb to get to $175M to break even on 2.5x RoT. Especially since it will probably only see $1 or $2 Million in physical sales after the fact if it's lucky in 2023.

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Tuesday, September 12, 2023 11:41 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


So...

With huge updates how I track this info making the process much easier and more accurate than it was before, my biggest problem is getting the information up here. Nothing I've done is easily transferable to this Web 1.0 site, and it's going to jibe at all with my old tables here.

I think, at least for now, I'm going to completely abandon Lists 3 and 4.

List 3 was the list where I kept track of how much Hollywood has collectively Made and Lost on movies once they ended their theatrical runs. I don't need to do this anymore. I now have an up to the minute figure on this not only for Hollywood in general, but for every individual studio that had a movie in the Top 80 as well. And I also have those figures for both the 2.0x and 2.5x Rule of Thumb. And instead of having to wait for a movie to end its run, it calculates every movie I've added to the list with up to date figures regardless of whether or not it is finished in the theaters.

So I won't be abandoning List 3 really, just replacing it with something more concise and much more accurate to the minute than waiting for movies to end their runs.


As for List 4 was just a rough gusstimate of how many days a movie took to break even worldwide. It was an afterthought and as I stated when I made it, it is the least scientific of all the lists. It also proved to be the most time-consuming list to maintain. Though I found this information interesting at the time, I've grown bored with maintaining it and I'm not even sure if anybody else cared at all.

I may try to find a way to program that information to be updated with the parameters I set for List 4 to make the data available, but for now I'm not going to put the work into that. If I don't do anything with it in future record-keeping, I may choose to go back to it one last time after the year is over and all the 2023 films have left the box office, just to have closure on it.

I'm not sure how I'm going to update Lists 1 and 2 here yet, but I'll be playing around with it today, so if you see anything weird in here, that's what's going on. I'm still not sure if I'm going to be updating this every week going forward. It all depends on how easily I can transfer the information over.

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Tuesday, September 12, 2023 12:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (MOVIES)
By % of WORLDWIDE GROSS / PRODUCTION BUDGET



00000000000000000000| PRODUCTION0| WORLDWIDE0000|% OVER|2.0x RoT000000|2.5x RoT000000|FINAL|
Rnk|MOVIE TITLE00000| BUDGET00000| GROSS00000000|BUDGET|PROFIT/LOSS000|PROFIT/LOSS000|DATE0|STUDIO000|

001|M3GAN 0000000000|0$12,000,000|00$181,012,024|1,508%|00$157,012,024|00$151,012,024|03/16|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002|Sound of Freedom|0$14,500,000|00$210,065,799|1,449%|00$181,065,799|00$173,815,799|00000|ANGEL STU|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003|Talk To Me000000|00$4,500,000|000$63,071,928|1,402%|000$54,071,928|000$51,821,928|00000|A24000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004|Super Mario Bros|$100,000,000|$1,359,687,777|1,360%|$1,159,687,777|$1,109,687,777|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005|Insidious: TRD00|0$16,000,000|00$186,256,309|1,164%|00$154,256,309|00$146,256,309|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006|Barbie0000000000|$145,000,000|$1,402,478,771|00967%|$1,112,478,771|$1,039,978,771|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007|Oppenheimer00000|$100,000,000|00$890,919,715|00891%|00$690,919,715|00$640,919,715|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008|Evil Dead Rise00|0$19,000,000|00$146,017,671|00769%|00$108,017,671|00$108,017,671|06/15|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009|Spider-Man: AtSV|$100,000,000|00$686,855,560|00687%|00$486,855,560|00$436,855,560|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010|Missing000000000|00$7,000,000|000$45,100,756|00644%|000$31,100,756|000$27,600,756|03/30|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011|Scream VI0000000|0$35,000,000|00$168,834,132|00482%|000$98,834,132|000$81,334,132|05/04|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012|Mummies000000000|0$12,000,000|000$53,172,225|00443%|000$29,172,225|000$23,172,225|04/10|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013|John Wick: Ch. 4|$100,000,000|00$432,249,673|00432%|00$232,249,673|00$182,249,673|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014|The Pope's Exorc|0$18,000,000|000$72,913,467|00405%|000$36,913,467|000$27,913,467|06/29|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015|The Blackening00|00$5,000,000|000$18,563,767|00371%|0000$8,563,767|0000$6,063,767|06/29|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016|Creed III0000000|0$75,000,000|00$274,448,615|00366%|00$124,448,615|000$86,948,615|05/18|UNITED AR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017|Jesus Revolution|0$15,000,000|000$53,101,427|00354%|000$23,101,427|000$15,601,427|04/27|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018|Guardians: Vol 3|$250,000,000|00$844,321,673|00338%|00$344,321,673|00$219,321,673|08/10|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019|Meg 2:The Trench|$129,000,000|00$384,941,643|00298%|00$126,941,643|000$62,441,643|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020|Knock at t Cabin|0$20,000,000|000$54,712,735|00274%|000$14,712,735|0000$4,712,735|04/20|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021|Cocaine Bear0000|0$35,000,000|000$89,301,105|00255%|000$19,301,105|0000$1,801,105|04/20|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022|Elemental0000000|$200,000,000|00$476,983,705|00238%|000$76,983,705|000$23,016,295|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023|The Boogeyman000|0$35,000,000|000$82,344,833|00235%|000$12,344,833|0000$5,155,167|07/27|20TH CENT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
024|Ant-Man & Wasp 2|$200,000,000|00$463,635,303|00232%|000$63,635,303|000$36,364,697|06/15|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025|TMNT: Mutant May|0$70,000,000|00$161,503,974|00231%|000$21,503,974|000$13,496,026|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
026|The Nun II000000|0$38,500,000|000$88,103,336|00229%|000$11,103,336|0000$8,146,664|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027|Transformers: Ri|$195,000,000|00$437,883,645|00225%|000$47,883,645|000$49,616,355|08/10|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028|The Lttl Mermaid|$250,000,000|00$561,225,855|00224%|000$61,225,855|000$63,774,145|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
029|Fast X0000000000|$340,000,000|00$714,517,031|00210%|000$34,517,031|00$135,482,969|07/13|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
030|Asteroid City000|0$25,000,000|000$50,925,122|00204%|000000$925,122|000$11,574,878|00000|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
031|MI70000000000000|$290,000,000|00$563,727,89||00194%|000$61,225,855|000$63,774,145|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
032|Plane00000000000|0$25,000,000|000$47,855,350|00191%|0000$2,144,650|000$14,644,650|03/02|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
033|No Hard Feelings|0$45,000,000|000$83,453,541|00185%|0000$6,546,459|000$29,046,459|08/13|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
034|Gran Turismo0000|0$60,000,000|000$93,514,294|00156%|000$26,485,706|000$56,485,706|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
035|The Equalizer 30|0$70,000,000|00$107,568,365|00154%|000$32,431,635|000$67,431,635|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
036|Book Club 200000|0$20,000,000|000$28,860,944|00144%|000$11,139,056|000$21,139,056|06/22|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
037|80 For Brady0000|0$28,000,000|000$40,266,090|00144%|000$15,733,910|000$29,733,910|03/23|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
038|Magic Mike 30000|0$40,000,000|000$56,270,502|00141%|000$23,729,498|000$43,729,498|06/01|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
039|Dungeons & Drago|$150,000,000|00$207,582,323|00138%|000$92,417,677|00$167,417,677|06/01|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
040|The Flash0000000|$200,000,000|00$267,993,474|00134%|00$132,006,526|00$232,006,526|08/17|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
041|AIR0000000000000|0$70,000,000|000$89,448,266|00128%|000$50,551,734|000$85,551,734|06/01|AMAZON ST|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
042|6500000000000000|0$45,000,000|000$56,241,027|00125%|000$33,758,973|000$56,258,973|05/11|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
043|Indiana Jones 50|$300,000,000|00$370,483,731|00123%|00$229,516,269|00$379,516,269|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
044|Shazam II0000000|$125,000,000|00$132,192,362|00106%|00$117,807,638|00$180,307,638|05/04|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
045|Blue Beetle00000|$120,000,000|00$114,049,642|00095%|00$125,950,358|00$185,950,358|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
046|Are U There God?|0$30,000,000|000$21,498,192|00072%|000$38,501,808|000$53,501,808|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
047|My Big Fat GW 30|0$18,000,000|000$12,716,675|00071%|000$23,283,325|000$32,283,325|00000|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
048|Strays0000000000|0$46,000,000|000$32,189,495|00070%|000$59,810,505|000$82,810,505|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
049|Haunted Mansion0|$157,750,000|00$101,070,407|00064%|00$214,429,593|00$293,304,593|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
050|Ruby Gillman0000|0$70,000,000|000$42,877,000|00061%|000$97,123,000|00$132,123,000|08/17|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
051|Operation Fortun|0$50,000,000|000$27,801,238|00056%|000$72,198,762|000$97,198,762|03/23|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
052|The Covenant0000|0$55,000,000|000$20,377,413|00037%|000$89,622,587|00$117,122,587|06/01|MGM000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
053|Renfield00000000|0$86,203,077|000$26,726,500|00031%|00$145,679,654|00$188,781,193|05/18|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
054|Champions0000000|0$??,???,???|000$18,852,343|000??%|000$??,???,???|000$??,???,???|05/04|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (STUDIOS)
By PROFIT ACCORDING TO 2.0x Rule of Thumb (RoT)



00000000000000000000000| COMBINED0000000| COMBINED00000000| %GROSS0|0000000000000000|0000000000000000|
00000000000000000000000| PRODUCTION00000| WORLDWIDE0000000| OVER000| 2.0x RoT0000000| 2.5x RoT0000000|
Rnk | STUDIO00000000000| BUDGETS00000000| GROSS00000000000| BUDGET0| PROFIT/LOSS0000| PROFIT/LOSS0000|

001 | UNIVERSAL00000000|000$809,203,077 |00$3,391,943,382 |000419% |0$1,773,537,228 |0$1,368,935,690 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002 | WARNER BROS.00000|000$828,500,000 |00$2,645,219,626 |000319% |000$988,219,626 |000$573,969,626 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003 | SONY PICTURES0000|000$361,000,000 |00$1,331,903,319 |000369% |000$609,903,319 |000$429,403,319 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004 | ANGEL STUDIOS0000|0000$14,500,000 |0000$210,065,799 |01,449% |000$181,065,799 |000$173,815,799 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005 | LIONSGATE00000000|000$225,000,000 |0000$601,069,647 |000267% |000$151,069,647 |0000$38,569,647 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006 | UNITED ARTISTS000|0000$75,000,000 |0000$274,448,615 |000366% |000$124,448,615 |0000$86,948,615 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007 | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,357,750,000 |00$2,817,720,674 |000208% |000$102,220,674 |000$576,654,326 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008 | A2400000000000000|00000$4,500,000 |00000$63,071,928 |01,402% |0000$54,071,928 |0000$51,821,928 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009 | PARAMOUNT PICTURE|000$768,000,000 |00$1,579,798,055 |000206% |0000$43,798,055 |000$340,201,945 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010 | 20TH CENTURY STUD|0000$35,000,000 |00000$82,344,833 |000235% |0000$12,344,833 |00000$5,155,167 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011 | FOCUS FEATURES000|0000$63,000,000 |0000$111,355,084 |000177% |0000$33,497,259 |0000$64,997,259 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 | AMAZON STUDIOS000|0000$70,000,000 |00000$89,448,266 |000128% |0000$50,551,734 |0000$85,551,734 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013 | MGM00000000000000|0000$55,000,000 |00000$20,377,413 |000037% |0000$89,622,587 |000$117,122,587 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000 | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$4,666,453,077 |0$13,218,766,641 |000283% |0$3,867,008,144 |0$1,533,781,606 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | Peter Pan&W Bdgt0|000$170,000,000 |00000000000000$0 |000000% |0000000000000$0 |0000000000000$0 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,527,750,000 |00$2,817,720,674 |000184% |0000$67,779,326 |00$746,654,326 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REV | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$4,836,453,077 |0$13,218,766,641 |000273% |0$3,697,008,144 |0$1,363,781,606 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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Tuesday, September 12, 2023 2:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Holy balls this is a pain in the ass...


It won't be bad after I set it up, but it will still require a good deal of manual work going forward when I've got everything automated otherwise.

I think I'm just going to do this and the Studio/Hollywood numbers.

I'll probably abandon List 1 for opening weekend too. I can't see going through all this work essentially twice for a table that really doesn't matter in the end.



I'm taking a break from it now. I'll get to finishing it. Those numbers are all through Sunday and aren't going anywhere until next Monday anyhow.





Oh, and 15 entries in and we haven't seen Disney yet.

SPOILER ALERT: Disney doesn't show up until 18.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023 7:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


09/05/2023 LISTS (Retired).

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
09/05/2023 LISTS:

*NOTE: Because of the holiday weekend, none of the final numbers were posted for any of the movies until long after Monday's numbers were in too. With the amount of movies I'm doing information on now, I won't be removing Monday from the totals this week, and when we go back to normal next week it's just going to be the 6 days after Labor Day.

The single exception here is going to be the new addition The Equalizer 3 since we want to have legitimate opening weekend numbers for all of the movies.


LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

As of 09/05/2023, this list includes Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend for all American made films currently in the global top 80 that had Production Budget info available. Some movies that were in the Top 80 are now in the Top 90.

The only new addition this week is The Equalizer 3.


1. Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3. M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4. Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
5. Barbie / Budget: $145,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 246%
6. Talk to me / Budget: $4,500,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 222%
7. Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
8. Miles Morales 2 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
9. The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
10. Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
11. Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
12. John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
13. Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
14. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
15. The Blackening / Budget: $5,000,000 / WWO: $6,000,000 / 120%
16. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
17. Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
18. Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
19. Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
20. Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
21. Gran Turismo / Budget: $60,000,000 / WWO: $54,000,000 / 90%
22. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
23. The Equalizer 3 / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $61,000,000 / 87%
24. Mission Impossible: Dead Reck Pt1 / Budget: $290,000,000 / WWO: $235,000,000 / 81%
25. Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
26. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant M / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $52,000,000 / 74%
27. The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
28. The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $128,000,000 / 64%
29. The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
30. Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
31. Book Club: The Next Chapter / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 50%
32. No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
33. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Th / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
34. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
35. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
36. AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
37. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
38. Blue Beetle / Budget: $120,000,000 / WWO: $44,000,000 / 37%
39. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
40. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
41. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
42. Strays / Budget: $46,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 22%
43. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
44. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
45. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
46. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant / Budget: $55,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 13%
47. Renfield / Budget: $86,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 12%


I CAN'T FIND OPENING WEEKEND STATS FOR THESE MOVIES:
Asteroid City / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Missing / Budget: $7,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
Operation Fortune / Budget: $50,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?

*NOTE: I couldn't even find production budgets for the Demon Slayer anime film or the Woody Harrelson movie Champions, so I'm not even putting them on the lists unless I do. If anybody happens upon any info for either of those movies, or the opening weekend numbers for those two and the movies listed above, send me a link and I'll update the list.



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

*NOTE: I went back on all the old movies marked "[FINAL]" on 08/28/2023 to see whatever changes Bruce may have made to them. Several movies, notably M3GAN, have had percentages changed.

To make comparisons easier in the future, I will archive the Top 100 Movies List for comparison the next time I do this.

Archived link as of 08/28/2023: https://archive.ph/rMaie


WINNERS:
1. M3GAN made 1,508% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros Movie made 1,359% of its production budget of $100 Million.
3. Sound of Freedom made 1,357% of its production budget of $14 Million.
4. Talk to Me made 1,356% of its production budget of $4.5 Million.
5. Insidious: The Red Door made 1,163% of its production budget of $16 Million.
6. Barbie made 954% of its production budget of $145 Million.
7. Oppenheimer made 853% of its production budget of $100 Million.
8. Evil Dead Rise made 768% of its production budget of $19 Million. [FINAL]
9. Miles Morales 2 made 687% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
10. Missing made 642% of its production budget of $7 Million. [FINAL]
11. Scream IV made 483% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
12. Mummies made 442% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
13. John Wick: Chapter 4 made 432% of its production budget of $100 Million. [FINAL]
14. The Pope's Exorcist made 406% of its production budget of $18 Million. [FINAL]
15. Creed III made 365% of its production budget of $75 Million. [FINAL]
16. The Blackening made 360% of its production budget of $5 Million. [FINAL]
17. Jesus Revolution made 353% of its production budget of $15 Million. [FINAL]
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 made 338% of its production budget of $250 Million. [FINAL]
19. Meg 2: The Trench made 291% of its production budget of $129 Million.
20. Knock at the Cabin made 275% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
21. Cocaine Bear made 254% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
22. Elemental made 238% of its production budget of $200 Million.
23. The Boogeyman made 234% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
24. Ant Man & the Wasp: Quantum made 232% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
25. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts made 225% of its production budget of $195 Million. [FINAL]
26. The Little Mermaid made 224% of its production budget of $250 Million.
27. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM made 219% of its production budget of $70 Million.
28. Fast X made 211% of its production budget of $340 Million. [FINAL]
29. Asteroid City made 204% of its production budget of $25 Million.


LOSERS:
The movies which haven't doubled their production budget to cover marketing budgets and theater takes. Unless marked with [FINAL], they still have an opportunity make the Winners list.

1. Renfield made 31% of its production budget of $86 Million. [FINAL]
2. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant made 36% of its production budget of $55 Million. [FINAL]
3. Operation Fortune made 56% of its production budget of $50 Million. [FINAL]
4. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 60% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
5. Strays made 61% of its production budget of $46 Million.
6. Haunted Mansion made 63% of its production budget of $158 Million.
7. Are You There God? IM, M made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million. [FINAL]
8. The Equalizer 3 made 87% of its production budget of $70 Million.
9. Blue Beetle made 88% of its production budget of $120 Million.
10. Shazam: FotG only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
11. Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 124% of its production budget of $300 Million.
12. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
13. Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
14. AIR only made 127% of its production budget of $70 Million. [FINAL]
15. The Flash made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
16. Gran Turismo made 135% of its production budget of $60 Million.
17. Dungeons & Dragon: HAT only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
18. Book Club: TSC made 140% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
19. 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million. [FINAL]
20. No Hard Feelings made 184% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
21. Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million. [FINAL]
22. Mission Impossible: DR Part 1 made 190% of its production budget of $290 Million.


LIST 3: TOTAL STUDIO PROFITS AFTER MOVIE EXITS BOX OFFICE (BASED OFF 2X RULE OF THUMB):


[Worldwide Box Office - (Production Budget *2)]

*NOTE TO SELF: I updated all of these numbers on 08/28/2023 as well. Refer to the archived link above in List 2 when updating these numbers in the future to save a lot of work.

1. Miles Morales 2: Across the Spiderverse +$486,760,983
2. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 + $344,321,673
3. John Wick: Chapter 4 + $232,249,673
4. M3GAN + $157,009,450
5. Creed III + $124,448,615
6. Evil Dead Rise + $108,017,671
7. Scream IV + $98,834,132
8. Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania + $63,635,303
9. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts + $47,910,430
10. Fast X + $38,953,575
11. The Pope's Exorcist + $36,913,467
12. Missing +$31,100,756
13. Mummies + $29,172,225
14. Jesus Revolution + $23,113,900
15. Cocaine Bear + $19,301,105
16. Knock at the Cabin + $14,712,735
17. The Bogeyman + $12,344,833
18. The Blackening +$7,707,207

TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,876,507,733

LOSERS:
1. Renfield -$145,273,500
2. The Flash -$131,931,349
3. Shazam: Fury of the Gods -$117,807,638
4. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken -$97,525,786
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves -$92,417,677
6. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant -$89,622,587
7. Operation Fortune -$72,452,850
8. AIR -$50,551,734
9. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret -$38,501,808
10. 65 - $33,758,973
11. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $33,729,498
12. 80 for Brady -$15,733,910
13. Book Club: The Second Chapter -$11,525,071
14. No Hard Feelings -$6,536,124
15. Plane -$2,144,650

*NEW ADDITIONS 08/28: Miles Morales 2; .

TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$939,513,155

TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$936,994,578

*NOTE: This is the total Worldwide Box Office profits using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb. I will eventually get around to adding the 2.5x Rule of Thumb for comparison. I may wait until the year is over so I'm not re-doing all that math every time Bruce adds or subtracts international numbers after the movie finishes its run.



LIST 4: DAYS IT TOOK FOR THE FILM TO BREAK EVEN (FOR 2.0X RULE OF THUMB):

Short Explanation: Take the movie's % of Domestic/International, consider that the constant split for the entire run of the movie. Use those percentages to figure out what day it made enough in the US to have made twice the production budget with the international figure on that day. Tie breaker for days goes to the movie that made the most money above two times the production budget.

(The least scientific of the three lists, but all we can work with given the abysmal state of keeping track of international numbers in 2023)

Also, until a movie is finished, this list would bounce around all over the place, so I'm not going to update any of these numbers going forward until a movie is [FINAL] and the movie will just stay in whatever place it falls on the day I put it on this list until the movie ends its theatrical run.

1. Insidious: The Red Door: 1 Day / $15M Domestic : $14M Needed (45%D / 55%I)
2. M3GAN: 1 Day / $12M Domestic : $12M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
3. Super Mario Bros. Movie: 3 Days / $113M Domestic : $84M Needed (42%D / 58%I)
4. Evil Dead Rise: 3 Days / $19M Domestic : $17M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
5. Talk to Me: 3 Days / $9M Domestic : $8M Needed (86%D / 14%I)
6. Barbie: 4 Days / $162M Domestic : $133M Needed (46%D / 54%I)
7. Miles Morales 2: 4 Days / $120M Domestic : $112M Needed (56%D / 44%I)
8. Oppenheimer: 4 Days / $95M Domestic : $88M Needed (44%D / 56%I)
9. Scream IV: 4 Days / $48M Domestic : $45M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
10. Sound of Freedom: 5 Days / $34M Domestic : $28M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
11. The Pope's Exorcist: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (27%D / 73%I) [FINAL]
12. Missing: 5 Days / $11M Domestic : $10M Needed (73%D / 27%I)
13. John Wick: Chapter 4: 5 Days / $86M Domestic : $86M Needed (43%D / 57%I) [FINAL]
14. Creed III: 9 Days / $94M Domestic : $86M Needed (57%D / 43%I) [FINAL]
15. Jesus Revolution: 10 Days / $30M Domestic : $29M Needed (98%D / 2%I) [FINAL]
16. Meg 2: The Trench: 10 Days / $54M Domestic: $54M Needed (21%D / 69%I)
17. The Blackening: 10 Days / $10M Domestic : $10M Needed (100%D / 0%I)
18. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: 11 Days / $220M Domestic : $215M Needed (43%D / 57%I)
19. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: 12 Days / $107M Domestic : $107M Needed (37%D / 63%I)
20. Knock at the Cabin: 15 Days / $27M Domestic : $27M Needed (64%D / 36%I) [FINAL]
21. Ant Man & the Wasp: Q: 17 Days / $187M Domestic : $184M Needed (46%D / 54%I) [FINAL]
22. Cocaine Bear: 17 Days / $52M Domestic : $50M Needed (72%D / 28%I) [FINAL]
23. Mummies: 20 Days / $2M Domestic : $2M Needed (8%D / 92%I) [FINAL]
24. Fast X: 23 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (20%D / 80%I) [FINAL]
25: The Bogeyman: 23 Days / $37M Domestic : $36M Needed (52%D / 48%I) [FINAL]
26. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM / 26 Days / $99M Domestic : $98M Needed (70%D / 30%I)
27. The Little Mermaid: 30 Days / $268M Domestic : $265M Needed (53%D / 47%I)
28. Elemental: 38 Days / $137M Domestic : $136M Needed (34%D / 66%I)
29. Asteroid City 73 Days [ACTUAL] / $50 Million of $50 Million Needed on Day 73

2023 LIKELY EVENTUAL WINNERS:
1. Gran Turismo - $81M in total vs. $120M needed.
2. The Equalizer 3: $61M in total vs $140M needed.

2023 MOVIES LIKELY (OR CERTAINLY IF FINAL) TO NEVER BREAK EVEN:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $371M of $600M needed.
2. Haunted Mansion - $100M of $316M needed.
3. Renfield - $27M of $172M needed. [FINAL]
4. Blue Beetle - $105M of $240M needed.
5. The Flash - $268M of $400M needed. [FINAL]
6. Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $132M of $250M needed. [FINAL]
7. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $42M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $208M of $300M needed. [FINAL]
9. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - $20M of $110M needed. [FINAL]
10. Operation Fortune - $28M of $100M needed. [FINAL]
11. AIR - $90M of $140M needed. [FINAL]
12. Strays - $28M of $92M needed.
13. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret - $21M of $60M needed. [FINAL]
14. 65 - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
15. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $56M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
16. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 - $560M in total vs $580M needed.
17. Book Club: The Second Chapter - $28M of $40M needed. [FINAL]
18. 80 for Brady - $40M of $48M needed. [FINAL]
19. No Hard Feelings - $84M of $90M needed. [FINAL]
20. Plane - $48M of $50M needed. [FINAL]



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Tuesday, September 12, 2023 7:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


New lists are finally set up. They should be self-explanatory, but let me know if you don't understand something.

Updating these will be a minor hassle, so I might not do them every week. Adding new movies will be a bit of a bigger pain, but not too bad. Nothing is going to take me all damn day like setting all of this up for the first time did though.

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Saturday, September 16, 2023 4:10 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

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Saturday, September 16, 2023 6:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
2023 summer box office: How Barbenheimer changed game and why big-budgeted films missed the mark

https://canoe.com/entertainment/movies/the-2023-summer-box-office-how-
barbenheimer-changed-the-game-and-why-big-budgeted-films-missed-the-mark/wcm/0060e3d1-e848-4cfd-9a4a-0f2fc0ed91cf



Overall, that's a good article. I don't think the author knows much about Budgeting and Marketing movies though since they made the claim that Indy 5 will likely lose $100 Million. Best case scenario for Disney is that it lost around $225 Million.

And I think it's a mistake to call the concept of Indiana Jones "outdated". IMO, Indiana Jones is timeless, and you show the original trilogy to any boy in 2023 and they're going to love it. Harrison Ford isn't immortal though, and nobody wanted to see their childhood hero playing Great-Grandpa Jones and be a plot device in the uber-expensive feminist agenda piece. Crystal Skull was a huge mistake itself that they didn't learn from, and that film came out at a time that predates the current, dying woke Hollywood culture.

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Sunday, September 17, 2023 11:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


RE: Equalizer 3

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
By no means is it doing terrible, with nearly $76 Million in the bank after only 7 days and only 3 more days until more international numbers get reported... but it does have a much larger Domestic Box Office than International right now (about 2/3rds) than the first two movies had. (52% for E1 and 54% for E2).

So unless there is some delay in International reporting going on here, or unless there are still countries it's going to be shown in that it hasn't yet, this one might be in trouble. I do see that it has yet to open in Argentina, Brazil and Japan. The first movie was so old that Bruce doesn't have any in-depth International numbers for it, but those 3 territories did somewhere in the area of $10 Million for the sequel. The International list for E2 is about twice to even three times as long as they currently have up for E3 as well, so maybe the worry here is about nothing.

But it's seeing a pretty rapid drop of in Domestic Numbers compared to E2 right now, with the last 3 days this week making about a Million less per day than E2 did.

With Horror movies seeing somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and The Nun II coming out this weekend, The Equalizer might be mortally wounded already.

Even with a $70M budget less than the predecessor, it has a big hill to climb to get to $175M to break even on 2.5x RoT. Especially since it will probably only see $1 or $2 Million in physical sales after the fact if it's lucky in 2023.



I'm feeling pretty good that it makes enough to be a winner with the 2.0x RoT, but I don't know if it will meet 2.5x RoT.

17 days in, E3 is over $6 Million shy of what E2 had at the same time. That alone is almost how much they saved on the $7 Million less than E2 Production Budget.

It's got $119,468,700 right now without the week's International numbers in yet, so it's only about $20 Million shy of 2.0x with that gap closing even more in the next day or two. But it still needs $55 Million for 2.5x. Not impossible. Probably a coin-flip at this point.

I hope it does. I think everyone pretty much expected it to when it came out. It just hasn't had very impressive legs is all.

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Monday, September 18, 2023 11:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'm still on the fence about updating these graphs weekly because of the work involved. I had planned on doing that tonight, but with the dearth of new financials for Sound of Freedom and Talk To Me (numbers 2 and 3 on the list), I don't feel like even making the update until at least giving The-Numbers.com a chance to get data for both of those movies.

There wasn't too much exciting this week otherwise. Here's the highlights, anyhow...

1. The Little Mermaid, Indy 5 and Asteroid City appear to have existed theaters for good. They weren't on Bruce's theater count list and they haven't been updated since the 14th.

2. The Nun II has made a killing and is now over 400% above budget, landing it somewhere in the top 15 for the year. That's officially 7 out of 15 of the top earning movies vs. production budgets this year being horror flicks. I'm not sure if it's going to crack the Top 10 because of its near $40 Million budget, but that would make 5 of the Top 10 movies in 2023 from the Horror genre if it can manage somewhere in the area of 650% of its production budget.

3. A Haunting in Venice by 20TH Century Studios is the only addition this week. It's seriously under-performing with only $37 Million worldwide opening on a $60 Million budget, and it didn't even beat The Nun II in it's second week as expected.


Other than that, there were just quite a few annoying "final" Worldwide Gross changes to movies that have been out of the theater anywhere from a few days to over 6 months now. Seriously annoying when trying to do record keeping like this. Some movies that haven't changed in 5 months changed this weekend.

I may update this list tomorrow if Talk To Me and Sound of Freedom get reconciled, otherwise I'll probably put it off until next weekend.

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Wednesday, September 20, 2023 11:15 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Anyways appreciate the effort for the graph

there will be some good ok films

Hollyweird still makes money - A drama not a block buster

Miranda warning is a type of notification customarily given by police to criminal suspects in police custody or in a custodial interrogation, advising them of their right to silence and, in effect, protection from self-incrimination; that is, their right to refuse to answer question



scheduled to be released by Vertical Entertainment on October 6, 2023.

netflix Capcom Onimusha



looks to Japan again


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Wednesday, September 20, 2023 11:28 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Anyways appreciate the effort for the graph



Yeah. It's super easy to update each week on my end, but then transferring that info to fff.net is not pleasant.

I had planned on updating it for the weekend yesterday even though some of the movies I'm actively tracking hadn't been updated, but stuff came up. Those movies still haven't been updated.

I'll update that info from time to time. It probably won't be every week though.

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Sunday, September 24, 2023 3:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


No new numbers still for any of the movies I care about, but Expend4bles just got destroyed this weekend with a $8.3 Million projected opening weekend.



https://www.the-numbers.com/news/255220830-Weekend-projections-Expend4
bles-bomb-continues-box-office-slump


Good.

Make something new, bitches. We're sick of your paint by numbers bullshit, and we will continue to make you go broke.

Expend4bles is just a continuation of the bankruptcy of creativity in Hollywood that was going on a long time before the Woke college crowd took over their jobs. The woke problem wouldn't even exist today if we didn't have 10 years of crappy, uninspired sequels and reboots nobody asked for leading up to it.

Get wrecked.



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Tuesday, September 26, 2023 11:44 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Once again, unless the numbers get updated for Sound of Freedom, Talk To Me and Blue Beetle, I remain disincentivized to bother updating this table for the week. I do have my own updated.

Nothing too notable happened, but here's the short list of changes that had been made since last week...

1. This weekend's flop Expend4bles was added to the list. It made $8 Million this weekend stateside and only managed somewhere around 29% of its production budget worldwide. But it didn't REALLY make 29% of its production budget opening weekend since it strangely opened a week early in China on the 15th and already had $10 Million from China before opening weekend here took place.

2. Last month's flop The Voyage of the Demeter broke the top 100 and made the list. It clearly had already done so, since opening day was August 10th, but for some reason it was not on my list before. It was a rare loss for Universal this year, but shouldn't do too much to damage the over $1.3 Billion in profit the company has made in 2023 using 2.5xRoT since it only had a $45 Million budget.

Interestingly enough, Universal's only other loss in 2023 was Renfield... The other Dracula movie.

Vampires... *yawn*

Or maybe with both Renfield and The Little Mermaid flopping, Hollywood needs to let go of trying to make Awkwafina a thing.

3. The massive loss of Expendables drops Lionsgate (who also did John Wick 4) into loser territory for the year in both 2.0x and 2.5x RoT. They do have a couple of winners this year, but unless you're doing Universal type business in 2023, you can't afford to put out $100 Million bombs.

I don't have the list in front of me now, but my guess is that this movie will eventually make enough to claw Lionsgate out of undeniable 2.0x RoT failure for the year.

4. The Nun II continues to prove that 2023 is the Year of the Horror Genre , despite its hefty price tag of a $38.5 Million Production Budget by clearing $200 Million worldwide. It has now made 530% of its PB, putting it in 11th place on our list. Still a long climb to 645%, but if it can manage another 116% before the end of it's run, that would mean 5 of the top 10 this year (so far) were low-to-mid-budget horror movies. Right now, 8 of the top 15 fit that category.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Tuesday, September 26, 2023 10:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


NUMBERS FROM 09/10/2023: (I can't "quote" these since it screws up the table)

2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (MOVIES)
By % of WORLDWIDE GROSS / PRODUCTION BUDGET

Up to date as of 09/10/2023


00000000000000000000| PRODUCTION0| WORLDWIDE0000|% OVER|2.0x RoT000000|2.5x RoT000000|FINAL|
Rnk|MOVIE TITLE00000| BUDGET00000| GROSS00000000|BUDGET|PROFIT/LOSS000|PROFIT/LOSS000|DATE0|STUDIO000|

001|M3GAN 0000000000|0$12,000,000|00$181,012,024|1,508%|00$157,012,024|00$151,012,024|03/16|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002|Sound of Freedom|0$14,500,000|00$210,065,799|1,449%|00$181,065,799|00$173,815,799|00000|ANGEL STU|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003|Talk To Me000000|00$4,500,000|000$63,071,928|1,402%|000$54,071,928|000$51,821,928|00000|A24000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004|Super Mario Bros|$100,000,000|$1,359,687,777|1,360%|$1,159,687,777|$1,109,687,777|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005|Insidious: TRD00|0$16,000,000|00$186,256,309|1,164%|00$154,256,309|00$146,256,309|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006|Barbie0000000000|$145,000,000|$1,402,478,771|00967%|$1,112,478,771|$1,039,978,771|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007|Oppenheimer00000|$100,000,000|00$890,919,715|00891%|00$690,919,715|00$640,919,715|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008|Evil Dead Rise00|0$19,000,000|00$146,017,671|00769%|00$108,017,671|00$108,017,671|06/15|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009|Spider-Man: AtSV|$100,000,000|00$686,855,560|00687%|00$486,855,560|00$436,855,560|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010|Missing000000000|00$7,000,000|000$45,100,756|00644%|000$31,100,756|000$27,600,756|03/30|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011|Scream VI0000000|0$35,000,000|00$168,834,132|00482%|000$98,834,132|000$81,334,132|05/04|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012|Mummies000000000|0$12,000,000|000$53,172,225|00443%|000$29,172,225|000$23,172,225|04/10|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013|John Wick: Ch. 4|$100,000,000|00$432,249,673|00432%|00$232,249,673|00$182,249,673|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014|The Pope's Exorc|0$18,000,000|000$72,913,467|00405%|000$36,913,467|000$27,913,467|06/29|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015|The Blackening00|00$5,000,000|000$18,563,767|00371%|0000$8,563,767|0000$6,063,767|06/29|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016|Creed III0000000|0$75,000,000|00$274,448,615|00366%|00$124,448,615|000$86,948,615|05/18|UNITED AR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017|Jesus Revolution|0$15,000,000|000$53,101,427|00354%|000$23,101,427|000$15,601,427|04/27|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018|Guardians: Vol 3|$250,000,000|00$844,321,673|00338%|00$344,321,673|00$219,321,673|08/10|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019|Meg 2:The Trench|$129,000,000|00$384,941,643|00298%|00$126,941,643|000$62,441,643|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020|Knock at t Cabin|0$20,000,000|000$54,712,735|00274%|000$14,712,735|0000$4,712,735|04/20|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021|Cocaine Bear0000|0$35,000,000|000$89,301,105|00255%|000$19,301,105|0000$1,801,105|04/20|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022|Elemental0000000|$200,000,000|00$476,983,705|00238%|000$76,983,705|000$23,016,295|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023|The Boogeyman000|0$35,000,000|000$82,344,833|00235%|000$12,344,833|0000$5,155,167|07/27|20TH CENT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
024|Ant-Man & Wasp 2|$200,000,000|00$463,635,303|00232%|000$63,635,303|000$36,364,697|06/15|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025|TMNT: Mutant May|0$70,000,000|00$161,503,974|00231%|000$21,503,974|000$13,496,026|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
026|The Nun II000000|0$38,500,000|000$88,103,336|00229%|000$11,103,336|0000$8,146,664|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027|Transformers: Ri|$195,000,000|00$437,883,645|00225%|000$47,883,645|000$49,616,355|08/10|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028|The Lttl Mermaid|$250,000,000|00$561,225,855|00224%|000$61,225,855|000$63,774,145|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
029|Fast X0000000000|$340,000,000|00$714,517,031|00210%|000$34,517,031|00$135,482,969|07/13|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
030|Asteroid City000|0$25,000,000|000$50,925,122|00204%|000000$925,122|000$11,574,878|00000|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
031|MI70000000000000|$290,000,000|00$563,727,89||00194%|000$61,225,855|000$63,774,145|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
032|Plane00000000000|0$25,000,000|000$47,855,350|00191%|0000$2,144,650|000$14,644,650|03/02|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
033|No Hard Feelings|0$45,000,000|000$83,453,541|00185%|0000$6,546,459|000$29,046,459|08/13|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
034|Gran Turismo0000|0$60,000,000|000$93,514,294|00156%|000$26,485,706|000$56,485,706|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
035|The Equalizer 30|0$70,000,000|00$107,568,365|00154%|000$32,431,635|000$67,431,635|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
036|Book Club 200000|0$20,000,000|000$28,860,944|00144%|000$11,139,056|000$21,139,056|06/22|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
037|80 For Brady0000|0$28,000,000|000$40,266,090|00144%|000$15,733,910|000$29,733,910|03/23|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
038|Magic Mike 30000|0$40,000,000|000$56,270,502|00141%|000$23,729,498|000$43,729,498|06/01|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
039|Dungeons & Drago|$150,000,000|00$207,582,323|00138%|000$92,417,677|00$167,417,677|06/01|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
040|The Flash0000000|$200,000,000|00$267,993,474|00134%|00$132,006,526|00$232,006,526|08/17|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
041|AIR0000000000000|0$70,000,000|000$89,448,266|00128%|000$50,551,734|000$85,551,734|06/01|AMAZON ST|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
042|6500000000000000|0$45,000,000|000$56,241,027|00125%|000$33,758,973|000$56,258,973|05/11|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
043|Indiana Jones 50|$300,000,000|00$370,483,731|00123%|00$229,516,269|00$379,516,269|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
044|Shazam II0000000|$125,000,000|00$132,192,362|00106%|00$117,807,638|00$180,307,638|05/04|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
045|Blue Beetle00000|$120,000,000|00$114,049,642|00095%|00$125,950,358|00$185,950,358|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
046|Are U There God?|0$30,000,000|000$21,498,192|00072%|000$38,501,808|000$53,501,808|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
047|My Big Fat GW 30|0$18,000,000|000$12,716,675|00071%|000$23,283,325|000$32,283,325|00000|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
048|Strays0000000000|0$46,000,000|000$32,189,495|00070%|000$59,810,505|000$82,810,505|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
049|Haunted Mansion0|$157,750,000|00$101,070,407|00064%|00$214,429,593|00$293,304,593|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
050|Ruby Gillman0000|0$70,000,000|000$42,877,000|00061%|000$97,123,000|00$132,123,000|08/17|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
051|Operation Fortun|0$50,000,000|000$27,801,238|00056%|000$72,198,762|000$97,198,762|03/23|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
052|The Covenant0000|0$55,000,000|000$20,377,413|00037%|000$89,622,587|00$117,122,587|06/01|MGM000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
053|Renfield00000000|0$86,203,077|000$26,726,500|00031%|00$145,679,654|00$188,781,193|05/18|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
054|Champions0000000|0$??,???,???|000$18,852,343|000??%|000$??,???,???|000$??,???,???|05/04|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (STUDIOS)
By PROFIT ACCORDING TO 2.0x Rule of Thumb (RoT)

Up to date as of 09/10/2023


00000000000000000000000| COMBINED0000000| COMBINED00000000| %GROSS0|0000000000000000|0000000000000000|
00000000000000000000000| PRODUCTION00000| WORLDWIDE0000000| OVER000| 2.0x RoT0000000| 2.5x RoT0000000|
Rnk | STUDIO00000000000| BUDGETS00000000| GROSS00000000000| BUDGET0| PROFIT/LOSS0000| PROFIT/LOSS0000|

001 | UNIVERSAL00000000|000$809,203,077 |00$3,391,943,382 |000419% |0$1,773,537,228 |0$1,368,935,690 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002 | WARNER BROS.00000|000$828,500,000 |00$2,645,219,626 |000319% |000$988,219,626 |000$573,969,626 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003 | SONY PICTURES0000|000$361,000,000 |00$1,331,903,319 |000369% |000$609,903,319 |000$429,403,319 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004 | ANGEL STUDIOS0000|0000$14,500,000 |0000$210,065,799 |01,449% |000$181,065,799 |000$173,815,799 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005 | LIONSGATE00000000|000$225,000,000 |0000$601,069,647 |000267% |000$151,069,647 |0000$38,569,647 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006 | UNITED ARTISTS000|0000$75,000,000 |0000$274,448,615 |000366% |000$124,448,615 |0000$86,948,615 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007 | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,357,750,000 |00$2,817,720,674 |000208% |000$102,220,674 |000$576,654,326 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008 | A2400000000000000|00000$4,500,000 |00000$63,071,928 |01,402% |0000$54,071,928 |0000$51,821,928 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009 | PARAMOUNT PICTURE|000$768,000,000 |00$1,579,798,055 |000206% |0000$43,798,055 |000$340,201,945 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010 | 20TH CENTURY STUD|0000$35,000,000 |00000$82,344,833 |000235% |0000$12,344,833 |00000$5,155,167 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011 | FOCUS FEATURES000|0000$63,000,000 |0000$111,355,084 |000177% |0000$33,497,259 |0000$64,997,259 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 | AMAZON STUDIOS000|0000$70,000,000 |00000$89,448,266 |000128% |0000$50,551,734 |0000$85,551,734 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013 | MGM00000000000000|0000$55,000,000 |00000$20,377,413 |000037% |0000$89,622,587 |000$117,122,587 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000 | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$4,666,453,077 |0$13,218,766,641 |000283% |0$3,867,008,144 |0$1,533,781,606 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,357,750,000 |00$2,817,720,674 |000208% |000$102,220,674 |000$576,654,326 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | Peter Pan&W Bdgt0|000$170,000,000 |00000000000000$0 |0000000 |000$170,000,000 |000$170,000,000 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | W. DISNEY REVISED|0$1,527,750,000 |00$2,817,720,674 |000184% |0000$67,779,326 |000$746,654,326 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REV | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$4,836,453,077 |0$13,218,766,641 |000273% |0$3,697,008,144 |0$1,363,781,606 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Wednesday, September 27, 2023 12:19 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


So I took the time to update the numbers today.

I'm sorry to announce that in the future this will probably be a 1 time per month maximum thing going forward.

It took me just 5 minutes shy of 2 hours to update these tables. And that was only adding 3 new movies to boot. There really is no easy way to transfer all of these numbers as well as take all the time to verify their accuracy and that I didn't miss any of the cells. Try "Reply With Quote" on my table and just look at the insane mess I have to deal with here if you're wondering why it takes so long.

Anyhow...

Kind of crazy seeing how the studios jumped around from just two weeks ago. One movie can just make or break you for sure.


To note, although I don't show it in the graph, even though Walt Disney jumped up to number 5 on the profitability list with RoT 2.0x, once you add in the $170 Million production budget of Peter Pan and Wendy's direct-to-Disney+ decision, it falls all the way back down to number 11 on the list. (It stood at #7 and #12 on the list 2 weeks ago when I first put the new lists up).

If you've heard the rumors that Disney simply can't cancel and shelve the Snow White live action release next year, this is why. It's rumored that movie cost over $300 Million to make now with reshoots, and even if it destroys part of their Brand they're in far too deep now to do what Warner Bros. did when they shelved the $90 Million Batgirl movie.

OPPS!



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2023 8:59 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Movies have been dying a while now, it probably peaked 2018 and some other big hits continue into 2019 with Avengers End Game

Fallout from the writers strike might continue a while, 2024 still poor?

There will be Left vs Right and Conservative vs Liberal political silly season on tv, sometimes movies do worse during election years.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2023 12:13 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I don't hear any hype about any movies coming out next year.

Nobody is excited about Marvel. Is Deadpool 3 next year or 2025?

Everybody can't wait for Snow White to come out and bomb hard.

The only other movie I'm even aware of that's coming out next year is MI7 Part 2, and after the under-performance of the first one I don't think that there's a ton of excitement for it. I'm hoping for their sake they put a bulk of their production budget for the 2 parts with the first one for tax purposes and the 2nd part didn't cost another $290 Million to make or they're screwed and the Mission Impossible franchise is dead.



Wait... No. I'm aware of one other movie that's coming out next year.

Borderlands by Lionsgate. I noticed this a few weeks back when I was looking for something else at The-Numbers. It's based off of the extremely popular video game franchise, although I think that rather than strike while the iron was hot they decided to put this thing out there several years too late. Maybe Covidmania is to blame for that.

It looks like they've diversified the cast for "modern audiences", but I know little more than that at this point. No word on production budget or if it's ultra-woke on top of the casting. I only ever played the first Borderlands, but it's one of my favorite games of all time. There's plenty of story to work with, so hopefully the people charged with making the flick actually played them.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2023 3:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I actually didn't even take the time to bother updating the lists on my end this weekend. The whole Hollywood topic has just become rather boring over the last month or so after Summer "Blockbuster" season ended, and international reporting has become so bad that you can't really even keep up with or even make any educated guesses about what a film's final numbers are going to be anymore.

With all of that going on, and no movies to root for, either failing or succeeding, I've just temporarily lost interest in the topic.

It might not be next week. I really don't care about a new Exorist movie coming out in 2023 other than seeing if it continues 2023's trend of rewarding low-to-mid budget horror movies (I'm assuming it's mid-budget). I probably won't show any interest at all until the following weekend when the Taylor Swift concert thing gets released, just because of the novelty of it. (FULL DISCLAIMER: I'm rooting for that one to fail).

Five Nights at Freddy's could be fun when it releases on October 27th. I've never played the game myself but I've seen other people play games from the series and seen videos on the surprising amount of lore behind it. I loved Nicholas Cage's Willy's Wonderland as a guilty pleasure (I think that was what it was called).

But I don't think that my interest in this topic is really going to come back until The Marvels releases on November 10th, with the Rachel Zegler lead Hunger Games prequel coming out the following week... And then Disney's final movie for the year, Wish, coming out the week after that.

I have made a note that when I next update my lists next week I'll have to add Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, The Creator and Saw X, on top of whatever new releases are coming out.




Notable things that have happened this week:

1. Talk To Me gets a massive $15 Million international bump on BoxOfficeMojo making it the undisputed winner of Worldwide Gross vs. Production Budget at a staggering 1,956%. I can't imagine anything yet to come out coming close to touching that number. Congrats to A24 and everybody involved in this production on this win.

2. The Nun II rose from 531% of Production Budget to 608% since last weekend. It's notably slowing down now, but it only needs 37% more to beat Missing and make the Top 10 list for 2023 despite it's $38.5 Million Production Budget. I think it should be able to reach the finish line there pretty easily, possibly boosted by Halloween coming up soon. It only needs around $15 Million more to do it.

If The Nun II manages to make that $15 Million, then 5 of the top 10 movies of 2023 will be from the Horror genre. Either way, 7 of the top 15 already are, and October only just started.

3. Saw X has a budget of $13 Million. In under a week it's already made 238% of that budget back. It is no doubt going to be a profitable film, but I don't know if it's going to make the $103 Million that Jigsaw made or not. You could never get me to sit through 5 minutes of any movie in this franchise, personally, but this is notable because it's the first Horror wide release of October and if it can reach $90 Million worldwide it would displace Miles Morales II to also make the Top 10.

Depending on how well the Nun II does in the end, it might not have to pull off that feat and could end up bumping The Nun II down to 11th place instead. Any one of those three could drop out of the Top 10 when the final numbers for Nun II and Saw X come in since they're all probably going to be pretty close to each other and space in the Top 10 is getting rather crowded this late into the year. Plus, there's still 3 more months to go in the year, so none of them are guaranteed a Top 10 spot by the end anyhow.

Scream IV is currently in 12th place and is the lowest ranking Horror movie of 2023 in the Top 15 currently. So Saw X will not knock it out of the top 15 and in a week or two we should see 8 of the top 15 performing movies in 2023 being low-to-mid budget Horror.

Neither would the new Exorcist movie bump Scream IV out of the top 15 if it's successful, so we could have 9 of the top 15 performing movies in 2023 being low-to-mid budget Horror.

4. Forbes dropped an article on October 2nd stating The Little Mermaid's budget is $50 Million more than initially reported, so that's now a financial loss for Disney even in the best case scenario of 2.0x RoT.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, October 6, 2023 8:06 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Duck Dynasty? The Blind is a 2023 American Christian biographical drama film

Expend4bles seems like it will flop

PAW Patrol The Mighty Movie seems to be doing ok in Asia, Latin America and Europe, Paramount Pictures under Nickelodeon Movies, its a bunch of computer cartoon dogs flying around, voice cast includes Mckenna Grace , Taraji P. Henson, Marsai Martin, Christian Convery, Kim Kardashian, Chris Rock, Lil Rel Howery, Serena Williams, North West, Saint West, James Marsden, Kristen Bell.
It cost $30 million to make.

Japan is not know for big box office but they are starting to watch their own films again, Don't Call it Mystery The Movie

'Barbie' is still making money, Oppenheimer still makes money but not much

'Paw Patrol' does look like a kids Cartoon and not one of these hyper-real CGI things


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Friday, October 6, 2023 11:15 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

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Friday, October 6, 2023 1:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yeah. I called Expend4bles a flop 3 days after release. I was ready to call it a flop after its first Thursday Preview night was less than a Million bucks, but when I looked back on the first 3 they all did under a million too (although with inflation they all probably did up to twice that since it was so long since the last one came out).

Half of the money it's made is from China, where it was released 1 week earlier than in the US. After 3 weekends and 2 weeks (17 days), it had already grossed $21 Million in China. We're already 13 days into its US release and it only has $14 Million. This This weekend it would be lucky to make another $1.5 Million in the states, so laughably, it will not have made as much here as it made in China when its done.

I can't make a real guess what it will make by the time it's out of theaters worldwide because international reporting is so shit right now, but I'm going to make a bold claim and say that it won't even make enough money to get it's $100 Million production budget back, meaning that it's going to end up costing Lionsgate anywhere from $100 to $180 Million when it's out of theaters.



I also mentioned my concerns early on that Equalizer 3 might not be successful. On a $70 Million budget, it has managed to make $159 Million. So using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, it has already made $19 Million, but using 2.5x Rule of Thumb it still has $16 Million to go. Once again, because of the state of international reporting I can't really say if it's going to do this or not. The Domestic takes going forward won't get it where it needs to be. It will likely only make about $1.6 Million this weekend and next week it will be making around $120k per day. Either way, I wouldn't expect an Equalizer 4 in the future.



Quote:

PAW Patrol The Mighty Movie seems to be doing ok in Asia, Latin America and Europe, Paramount Pictures under Nickelodeon Movies, its a bunch of computer cartoon dogs flying around, voice cast includes Mckenna Grace , Taraji P. Henson, Marsai Martin, Christian Convery, Kim Kardashian, Chris Rock, Lil Rel Howery, Serena Williams, North West, Saint West, James Marsden, Kristen Bell.
It cost $30 million to make.

'Paw Patrol' does look like a kids Cartoon and not one of these hyper-real CGI things



Wow. Only $30 Million? (I'm a bit behind on the Box Office right now).

How the hell did they manage that budget? Disney had better be taking some notes here. It was just announced yesterday that it actually gained theaters and is now in the most theaters any movie has been in since Barbie released.

It's got $49 Million worldwide in 6 days. Even though it looks like its got weak legs, and the money it made during its first week after opening weekend seems abnormally low, this one shouldn't have any problems being a success with a budget that small.

Quote:

Japan is not know for big box office but they are starting to watch their own films again, Don't Call it Mystery The Movie


I think competition is great for the industry. Especially when ESG leaked into Hollywood and turned most of their offerings to shit. If you look at the Top Worldwide Grossing movies for 2023, 2 of the Top 10 are from China. 6 of the Top 20 are from China. 9 of the Top 30 are from China. 13 of the Top 40 are from China. 15 of the Top 50 are from China. 21 of the Top 60 are from China. 24 of the Top 70 are from China. 29 of the Top 80 are from China. 33 of the Top 90 are from China. 36 of the Top 100 are from China.

More than 1/3rd of the Top 100 Worldwide Grossing movies are from China in 2023.

Talk To Me was made in the UK. (Had I realized this, I probably wouldn't have put it on my list of WW Gross vs. Production Budget race, but to remove it now on this technicality after covering that for so long would seem rather disingenuous).

I know there are a few Bollywood movies in there, as well as a few Japanese movies too.

Quote:

'Barbie' is still making money, Oppenheimer still makes money but not much


Yeah. Oppenheimer surprised me. I said way back when that Barbie was a Billion Dollar movie but there was no way that Oppenheimer was going to be. But it's made $932 Million and held Disney to no higher than 4th place on the Top 10 list.

Barbie might actually join the 1,000% club (WW Gross vs. Production Budget). Domestic takes aren't going to carry it there, since it still needs $13 Million and it had it's first sub-$100k day yesterday, but there's still plenty of room for additional International money to bring it over the finish line. Pretty impressive with the $145 Million budget if it manages to do it. All 5 of the movies in the club so far this year cost a combined $146.5 Million to make.




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Friday, October 6, 2023 7:44 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Some of your predictions with movies came out almost exactly as they are with movie earnings but you did get a Predicting Failure of Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong. That kid toon looking animation PAW Patrol The Mighty Movie seems to be easier to predict now that it is moving and with a Low Production Budget
Marvel or DC will probably have another failure.
I'm almost shocked they are calling Expend4bles a failure so soon, is there no place overseas where it can make international money?
They say 'Strange World' and Moonfall lost somewhere between $138-$197 Million?
The box office Turkey bombs but when...when entertainment news Media is sometimes slow to call a movie an official flop because they can still make money over seas but it seems Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is officially 'A Flop' now admitted by all websites, a failure admitted by all magazines and studios.


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Friday, October 6, 2023 8:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Some of your predictions with movies came out almost exactly as they are with movie earnings but you did get a Predicting Failure of Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong.



I got Oppenheimer REALLY wrong. I didn't make a "Failure Thread" for either of them though. I never said that either of them would fail, but yeah... I never thought they'd make nearly as much as they did. I still think that Barbie looks awful and Oppenheimer was too long. They both did great though.

Quote:

That kid toon looking animation PAW Patrol The Mighty Movie seems to be easier to predict now that it is moving and with a Low Production Budget


Yeah. It could pretty much fall flat on its face right now and still pull a profit.

I don't think that's going to happen though. My guess is that it does pretty damn good this weekend, and the legs look bad now because kids are back in school and they're not going to movies during the middle of the week. At $30 Million for the budget, it should do quite well in the end.

Quote:

Marvel or DC will probably have another failure.


Yeah. It's hard for me to judge Aquaman at all. I know nothing about the first movie except for the insane amount it made in theaters. DC has done crap this year and everybody hates Amber Heard, but maybe there was something about the Aquaman movie brand that brings people back to this one after a year of nothing but losses for DC? I'd love to come right out and say that The Marvels will be a failure. I truly believe that it will given the insane production budget they're reporting already (likely to end up being higher than that given Disney's track record this year). But again, the first movie made over a Billion and if the strike ends they can actually promote the thing. Who knows.

Quote:

I'm almost shocked they are calling Expend4bles a failure so soon, is there no place overseas where it can make international money?


Well... If you look at the lists I used to keep track of, you can kind of get a good picture of what movies were going to end up making money and which ones were going to be a flop by how much of their production budgets they recouped worldwide on opening weekend. (I have the last one I did archived in this thread on September 12th).

Once you get down to about 100% Worldwide Gross of the Production Budget over opening weekend and lower, it becomes a crap shoot if it's going to bomb or not. Most of the movies that made less than their PB opening weekend ended up being losers by the end of their run. (The notable exceptions for the most part being low-to-mid budget movies that eeked out wins anyway).

Expend4bles only made 21% of its production budget back worldwide opening weekend, which is the very last place on the list of the movies I've tracked this year. (Yes... Champions is lower, but that's only because I didn't have data on the production budget or the opening weekend figure, so it's just hanging out in limbo on the bottom of the list in hopes that information comes out).

Not only did it make last place with only 21%, but 11% of that money was from China's opening weekend the week before opening weekend. It truly did horrible when it opened.

Now... if you look at the international tab at the-numbers.com, you can see that there are quite a few countries that had the same opening weekend as the US that haven't been recorded yet. It also hasn't opened in France, Australia, New Zealand Japan and South Korea (and possibly more). But China is carrying this flick right now.Nobody else really seems to care.

So I'm giving it another $57.3 Million worldwide. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think it ends up doing much better than 100% of its Production Budget, which means after Marketing, Distribution and theater takes, it's the biggest loss for Lionsgate so far this year. (The Hunger Games prequel with Rachel Zegler could possibly take that crown).

Quote:

They say 'Strange World' and Moonfall lost somewhere between $138-$197 Million?
The box office Turkey bombs but when...when entertainment news Media is sometimes slow to call a movie an official flop because they can still make money over seas but it seems Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is officially 'A Flop' now admitted by all websites, a failure admitted by all magazines and studios.



Well... The lying media couldn't shield Disney forever, but notice how they ran whatever defense they could for Disney as long as they were able to get away with it. It's easy for them to "pick on" Lionsgate and call a flop a flop right when they know that it was a flop.

They have zero integrity. That's why I make these lists...

Math doesn't lie.

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Friday, October 6, 2023 8:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wow.

When I was on Metacritic the other day for something, I saw that the new Exorcist movie only had a 40 something percent by critics. I figured after I saw this it was going to flop.

But it just made $2,850,000 in Thursday night previews.

$30 Million isn't that bad of a number for a production budget either, given that it's a known franchise movie. Scream VI's budget was $35 Million and it's currently 12th place on the chart for 2023.

Scream VI, however, got $5,700,000 on preview night.

Bruce thinks it will make around $20 Million this weekend. Depending on international, it should probably easily make the production budget back over the first weekend. He doesn't seem to think that it's getting good word of mouth by people who have seen it though, so


I don't think it's going to make the top 15 like I thought it might have, but it should probably pay for itself at least, unless it just drops off a cliff after opening weekend.

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Friday, October 6, 2023 11:26 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well...

If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.

But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer

Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.

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Saturday, October 7, 2023 10:55 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Kids will see the movie, it's not world wide "restricted" 18+

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Rating Revealed for Final DCEU Movie
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/aquaman-lost-kingdom-rating-reveal
ed-160354224.html

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Saturday, October 7, 2023 12:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


That didn't factor into my thoughts on how the movie would do. I just always assumed it was going to get a PG or PG13 rating.

Aquaman is already a tough sell (and it was a miracle they somehow made the first one a Billion Dollar movie). If they tried going with an R rating it would have been a massive flop. R ratings are for Batman, Joker and Deadpool. Maybe when today's kids grow up they'd watch Aquaman as adults, but the adults today aren't going to be interested in Aquaman unless they're taking their kids to see it.

I really don't know how either Aquaman or The Marvels are going to do. Comic book movies have done so bad this year that I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that breaking even is a good guess, but they could make money or they could fail. I'd love to see them both fail hard, but I can't bring myself to say that they're both going to be flops.

I don't imagine I'm ever going to make a "Failure Thread" for Aquaman before it's release. I might still do that with The Marvels. That depends on if we get any proof of ultra-woke politics injected into it and/or the three lead actresses don't have a muzzle put on them and they're able to shit all over men before the movie comes out. I think the fact that the movie was trimmed down to only 1 hour and 45 minutes along with Bob Iger coming out and saying that Disney wants to "quiet the noise" means that we're not going to see a bunch of woke shit in it that was originally part of the movie, and after the Rachel Zegler thing they're probably going to be told to STFU and stay off of Twitter for the next few months.



Once opening weekend comes around I should be able to give a pretty good estimate of how they're going to do, so long as we have Production Budget numbers that we're fairly confident are based in reality.

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Saturday, October 7, 2023 3:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well...

If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.

But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer

Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.

--------------------------------------------------

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It still managed to pull in $11,910,000 on Friday. (This includes the $2,850,000 from preview night, so $9,060,000).

They count those preview Thursdays with the Opening Weekend box office though, so I'm thinking this one is going to do the $26+ Million Bruce's model predicted instead of the $20 Million he said he thought it would do.

I still don't think it's going to do that great overall because everything I've heard about it either bashes some woke content or just calls the movie boring, not scary, and a pale imitation of the first movie. And that includes the critics who gave it a 22% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It won't set any records, but it should make a little bit of money for the studio. If the budget were around $5 to $10 Million it would have done a lot better.



Saw X has already made just shy of 300% of its budget, and that's not including Saturday/Sunday and whatever internationals were since last weekend. It's already a winner, but it took a huge 70% drop from last Friday, so I doubt that it will eventually make enough money to take a spot in the Top 10.


The Nun II should make it there though. As of Friday it's got 610% of its budget back, and it only needs 35% more to knock Missing out of 10th place (About $11 Million). It could possibly have what it needs once international numbers come in after the weekend.

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Sunday, October 8, 2023 12:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well...

If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.

But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer

Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.



It still managed to pull in $11,910,000 on Friday. (This includes the $2,850,000 from preview night, so $9,060,000).

They count those preview Thursdays with the Opening Weekend box office though, so I'm thinking this one is going to do the $26+ Million Bruce's model predicted instead of the $20 Million he said he thought it would do.

I still don't think it's going to do that great overall because everything I've heard about it either bashes some woke content or just calls the movie boring, not scary, and a pale imitation of the first movie. And that includes the critics who gave it a 22% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It won't set any records, but it should make a little bit of money for the studio. If the budget were around $5 to $10 Million it would have done a lot better.



Yup. $27,200,000 is what the weekend predictions from the Studio were.

Worldwide total now at just over $45 Million or 150% of the Production Budget.

It will easily make 2.0xRoT and probably shouldn't have any problems getting 2.5xRoT.



It's got a 39 from Critics on Metacritic, and a 5.4 User Score. 23% from Critics on Rotten Tomatoes and a 57% Audience Score. Like I said before, I think this one is going to sink like a stone. If not by the 2nd weekend, we should see that happen afterward. But by that point it should have already made most of the money back it needed to be profitable.

Disney take note. Even if you make a woke trash film that is boring, your chances are pretty decent you're not going to lose money if the budget is small. Especially if it's a Horror movie in 2023.

I'm sure that the Taylor Swift thing is going to hurt it next weekend. I'd imagine that except for hardcore horror aficionados, the vast majority of the audience for the Horror genre are of the same age demographic that are going to come out in droves for that one. Sure, the girls are going be the ones mostly that want to see Taylor Swift and drag their boyfriends out to see that, but they just made their girlfriends sit through a horribly boring horror flick the previous weekend so fair's fair.


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Saturday, October 14, 2023 2:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


LOL...

They're now calling it the Wokesercist. I saw an early review from a small channel far before all the regulars got in and started piling on it.

It had a 68% drop from last Friday, which is terrible. Not sure how much that has to do with Taylor Swifts thing being out there and how much because the movie is just trash.

It will still make money, but I don't even know if it can crack the Top 20 for 2023 even with the small $30 Million budget. At $57 Million worldwide right now, it's only at 190% of the budget.

You people had one job.

In 2023, the year of the low-budget Horror movie, you took a 50 year old name brand and crapped on it. All you had to do was make a semi-competent, not boring flick that didn't have a bunch of political messaging in it, but you couldn't help yourselves.


Enjoy the couple of Million bucks that you make off of this one, NBC/Universal. We know that you just paid $400 Million for the Exorcist rights, so you'd better fire your diversity and inclusion department and/or keep them FAR away from this series if you ever want to have a hope of making any of that money back.

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Sunday, October 15, 2023 3:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


September 8th: RE: Equalizer 3

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I've always liked Denzel Washington and I've heard a lot of good things about the Equalizer series of movies, but I'm wondering if the 3rd one is going to be a success in 2023 or not.

Equalizer 1 had a Production Budget of $55 Million and grossed $192,903,624, or around 350% of the budget. Not only that, but it was 9 years ago when people still bought a lot of physical media, so it saw another $42 Million in DVD and BluRay sales.

Equalizer 2 had a $77 Million budget and grossed $190,376,181, or around 250% of the budget. Still a winner back in 2018 with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, but not nearly as successful as the first movie with the $27 Million smaller budget. Physical media sales had started winding down by that point too, and it only saw $26 Million in DVD/BluRay sales.


Now, Bruce doesn't have the Production Budget of E3 up, but I've heard that it cost $70 Million. I'm hoping for the movie that this is the case or it's even higher than the actual budget was. Either way, they made a smart decision to not go nuts and raise the budget for E3 to $100 Million from $77 Million and it looks like they may have even dialed it back a bit.


By no means is it doing terrible, with nearly $76 Million in the bank after only 7 days and only 3 more days until more international numbers get reported... but it does have a much larger Domestic Box Office than International right now (about 2/3rds) than the first two movies had. (52% for E1 and 54% for E2).

So unless there is some delay in International reporting going on here, or unless there are still countries it's going to be shown in that it hasn't yet, this one might be in trouble. I do see that it has yet to open in Argentina, Brazil and Japan. The first movie was so old that Bruce doesn't have any in-depth International numbers for it, but those 3 territories did somewhere in the area of $10 Million for the sequel. The International list for E2 is about twice to even three times as long as they currently have up for E3 as well, so maybe the worry here is about nothing.

But it's seeing a pretty rapid drop of in Domestic Numbers compared to E2 right now, with the last 3 days this week making about a Million less per day than E2 did.

With Horror movies seeing somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and The Nun II coming out this weekend, The Equalizer might be mortally wounded already.

Even with a $70M budget less than the predecessor, it has a big hill to climb to get to $175M to break even on 2.5x RoT. Especially since it will probably only see $1 or $2 Million in physical sales after the fact if it's lucky in 2023.



Equalizer 3 reaches the safety level of 2.5x RoT.

As of this weekend (without International figures for the previous week), the Worldwide total is $176,667,493, or 252.38% of the Production Budget.

I'm sure sighs of relief are being had all around at Sony Pictures on this one right now.

It's not going to make a lot of money for Sony, but at least it didn't lose money. They're probably going to have to think pretty long and hard about making an Equalizer 4 in the future unless they can find ways to further trim the budget.



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Monday, October 16, 2023 9:47 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


With 3 weeks already gone by since the last update, I can't really compare any current flicks' performances with any real degree of certainty anymore. Obviously Talk To Me is number one, with Sound of Freedom at number 2, pushing M3GAN to number 3. I'm pretty sure that the rest of the top 10 keeps the same order until Missing, which drops to number 11 and is replaced by The Nun II. I don't believe The Nun II has enough gas left in the tank to overtake Miles Morales 2 at number 9.

After that, everything up through the top 20 was already out of theaters except for Meg 2: The Trench which appears to have exited theaters last week and didn't get enough to take 19th place. Assuming that no movies that have come out since the 24th have made enough money to do more than 3 times the production budget, those would be the only changes in the top 20 right now.

I think I may try to update this next weekend. I'm a little too busy the next 2 days to try to get it done before the figures for Monday are in this week.


The Wokecercist seems to be doing pretty well overseas with over $40 Million of its $85 Million current total. It's made 283% of its production budget back so far, which already means that it's a winner. It's sitting at 21st place now if my previous statements on the top 20 are correct.

I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.

Killers, BTW, had better make a TON of money. Why Paramount Pictures would think that spending $200 Million to make a 1920's FBI murder mystery set in Oklahoma is a good idea is anyone's guess. How the hell did they even spend that much money on this? This isn't a CGI heavy Disney cape flick. Leo must have held out for $50 Million or something.



After that we get the 1, 2, 3 punch of Then The Marvels on November 10th, the Hunger Games prequel with Rachel Zegler on the 17th and Disney's Wish on November 22nd.

I wonder how that's going to turn out. Two movies with little buzz starring the two most unlikable women currently in Hollywood (Amber Heard isn't in Hollywood anymore) in competition with each other, and then only 12 days after The Marvels is released, Disney is in direct competition with itself by releasing Wish.



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Wednesday, October 18, 2023 12:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it [The Wokecercist] any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.

Killers, BTW, had better make a TON of money. Why Paramount Pictures would think that spending $200 Million to make a 1920's FBI murder mystery set in Oklahoma is a good idea is anyone's guess. How the hell did they even spend that much money on this? This isn't a CGI heavy Disney cape flick. Leo must have held out for $50 Million or something.



DEADLINE: ‘Killers Of The Flower Moon’ Hits Tracking: Three-Hour-Plus Movie Eyes $24M Start – Box Office

https://deadline.com/2023/09/killers-of-the-flower-moon-box-office-pro
jection-1235558660
/

Quote:

If Killers at its length can open to a $20M+ number, boosted by Imax, that’s commendable, despite the fact that the movie cost $200M.


No. It's not commendable. This isn't grade school in a woke school district where everybody who participates gets a trophy. This is going to be a catastrophic financial failure.


Let's double the Domestic Prediction of $24 Million and then round up to $50 Million Worldwide. (I think that's EXTREMELY generous of me to do here given the subject matter and how little most people outside of America are going to care about a 1920's FBI drama centered in Oklahoma).

$50 Million Worldwide on opening weekend would be just 25% of the massive production budget, and if it only grosses $24 Million domestic, it's not likely to come close to $50 Million Worldwide in reality.

How did other movies that only grossed 15-30% of their production budget fare by the end of their runs?

Well here's the list from this year:

39. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
40. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
41. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
42. Strays / Budget: $46,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 22%
43. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
44. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
45. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%


And how did they do?

- 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million.
- Elemental only made 246% of it's production budget of $200 Million.
- Are You There God? made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million.
- Strays only made 76% of its production budget of $46 Million.
- Haunted Mansion made 73% of its production budget of $158 Million.
- Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 66% of its production budget of $70 Million.
- Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million.

NOTES:

1. 4 of those 7 movies grossed only 3/4 of their Production Budgets or less.
2. 6 of those 7 movies failed to gross 2 times their PB and break even on the 2.0x RoT.
3. 7 of those 7 movies failed to gross 2.5 times their PB and break even on the 2.5x RoT.

Only one of those movies, Elemental, came back from a horrible opening weekend and, best case scenario, didn't lose money for their studio. None of them, including Elemental, made it worthwhile to even make the movie in the first place.




I've got nothing against this movie. I'm not itching to see it fail. But it will. Why the hell did it cost as much to make as a Marvel movie and almost twice as much as 2 of the 3 DC movies that came out this year? This should have been a $50 Million movie. At the very most, they shouldn't have spent one more dime that Denzel's Equalizer 3 which cost $70 Million to make.



The biggest question raised by the ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ trailer is how the hell it cost $200 million

https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/the-biggest-question-raised-by-the
-killers-of-the-flower-moon-trailer-is-how-the-hell-it-cost-200-million
/

Quote:

the biggest question raised by the footage has nothing to do with the footage, which looks suitably sumptuous and spectacular in equal measure. Instead, you can’t help but wonder how the hell Killers of the Flower Moon set Apple back by a reported $200 million, when it doesn’t look like it should cost anywhere near as much.

Make no mistake, it doesn’t exactly look as though it was made on a shoestring, but let’s not ignore the irony in Scorsese crafting a sweeping historical drama for roughly as much as it takes to create a Marvel Cinematic Universe blockbuster from the ground up. Does Killers of the Flower Moon look like it’s going to be a good movie? Yes, very much so. Does it look like a $200 million movie? We’re going to have to go out on a limb and say no, it does not.

It’s highly unlikely to come close to turning a profit in theaters, either, especially when the film’s ultimate end destination is streaming. Scorsese does whatever he wants at this stage of his career, it would seem, regardless of the eye-watering expense involved.




Right?

I think you're being a lot more polite about it than I'd be though. $200 Million for this film was complete insanity. There is zero chance in hell this makes a profit. It won't even double the production budget.

I AM going to go out on a limb here and say that it's going to join Blue Beetle in the race to see who spent too much money and isn't likely to beat Shazam II at the Box Office.

For those not keeping score, my prediction for this one based off of Deadline's $24 Million opening prediction is under $132 Million Worldwide by the time it's out of theaters. At exactly 66% of the $200 Million Production Budget, a $132 Million final worldwide gross would match Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken's performance, making it one of the biggest financial disasters of 2023.


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