CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Sunday, September 14, 2025 09:21
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VIEWED: 12268
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Saturday, September 6, 2025 3:24 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Snow White is out of the top15


will post an update

Quote:


36+ Million to enter the Top50 Worldwide

413 + Million to enter the Top10 on international Box Office

movie F1 did poor domestically but had a huge overseas percentage


1 Ne Zha 2 China $1,994,564,524
2 Lilo & Stitch $1,019,270,728
3 A Minecraft Movie $954,585,398
4 Jurassic World Rebirth $736,406,546
5 How to Train Your Dragon $609,978,139
6 Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning $592,101,824
7 Superman $531,606,392
8 F1: The Movie $528,270,512
9 Tang Tan 1900 China $452,502,745
10 Captain America: Brave New World $413,640,021
11 Thunderbolts* $382,376,746
12 Sinners $365,821,942
13 Final Destination: Bloodlines $285,330,814
14 The Fantastic Four: First Steps $268,917,087
15 Disney’s Snow White $205,679,463



Disney's Snow White knocked out of the top 15 since this was posted,

Final Destination Bloodlines rose up a little, How to Train Your Dragon gained, Demon Slayer Anime Japan Kimetsu no Yaiba The Movie rises, a historic China War Drama Set during the Nanjing Massacre called 'Dead To Rights' and a new very profitable horror movie 'Weapons' from WB


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Maybe Weapons does better than I thought despite the Conjuring coming out this weekend?



Many expected a growth in horror movies by the studios since they have proven to be very profitable post-Covid but not all studios have been learning this lesson

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Saturday, September 6, 2025 3:28 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Top 7 for Friday,
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1964358709175607402
1. #TheConjuringLastRites - $34.50M
2. #Hamilton - $3.90M
3. #WeaponsMovie - $1.45M
4. #FreakierFriday - $960K
5. #CaughtStealingMovie - $940K
6. #TheRoses - $784K
7. #LightOfTheWorld - $700K


Weapons will break $250M at the worldwide #boxoffice. Budget was just $38M!
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33573-weapons-os-thread-100m-
os-2324m-ww/page/2/#comments



not that cheap low budget horrors can take on the big silly video game inspired Minecraft but let's compare anyways

A Minecraft Movie (2025) vs. The Conjuring: Last Rites (2025) vs. Weapons (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Minecra
ft-Movie-A-(2025)/Conjuring-The-Last-Rites-(2025)/Weapons-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Sunday, September 7, 2025 7:47 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Box Office: 'The Conjuring: Last Rites' Set For $75M Franchise Record Bow

https://deadline.com/2025/09/box-office-conjuring-the-last-rites-12365
08461
/

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Monday, September 8, 2025 4:40 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Maybe Weapons does better than I thought despite the Conjuring coming out this weekend?



Many expected a growth in horror movies by the studios since they have proven to be very profitable post-Covid but not all studios have been learning this lesson



What? Are you taking lessons for Lying By Omission from MSNBC?

The whole post:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Maybe Weapons does better than I thought despite the Conjuring coming out this weekend?

Bruce predicts only a -27% drop for some reason this weekend on Weapons, even with a projected $66.8 Million for Conjuring. I would have thought there would be some serious overlap between the two and Weapons would have been buried under it.

So far, he's not right. It's dropped -44% from Friday to Friday, but looking just at F/F drops rarely paints the weekend picture, so I guess we wait and see.


ETA:

Well... he does mention this at the end of his prediction article...

Quote:

With all the returning films coming out of a slight uptick thanks to Labor Day last weekend, we might see some steep drops on the chart when we get the numbers on Saturday and Sunday. The model partially accounts for that, but drops of 40% or more for all the returning films are quite likely, in my opinion.


... which is basically what I said on the 2nd regarding Fantastic 4's smaller than expected Labor Day Weekend drop:

Quote:

I fully expect FF4 to end up taking a larger than normal dive next weekend to make up for this temporary bump it got with zero new competition.




ETA2:

And a deeper look at Friday's numbers in general appear to support this theory all around.

Friday to Friday drops:

Weapons: -45%
Freakier Friday: -47%
Caught Stealing: -71%
The Roses: -68%
Fantastic Four: -43%
The Bad Guys 2: -62%
Superman: -62%
The Naked Gun: -70%
F1: The Movie: -55%
Jurassic World Rebirth: -66%
Nobody 2: -81%
Toxic Avengare Unrated: -90%
Honey Don't: -90%
Lilo & Stitch: -93%



Which was in reference to the last paragraph of the previous post:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It will probably make another $5 or $6 Million in the US this weekend. Although, now that I look at the new movies that just came out, The Conjuring is probably going to overlap that audience by quite a bit and there might be a pretty big fall for Weapons this time around, so maybe not.

Oh well. WB should be more than pleased at this result even if it nosedives now. It's done well.





Weapons fell -49% for Weekend 5. Bruce's model said it would only fall -27%.

Weapons made $5,370,000 on weekend 5, which was right in between the $5-$6 Million I predicted it was going to make on Weekend 5.

I was right... again.

Bruce's model was wrong... again.


--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, September 10, 2025 2:32 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Pledge to Boycott Israeli Institutions Complicit in Genocide Adds Hundreds Of Signatories, Including Emma Stone, Peter Sarsgaard, Lily Gladstone, and Elliot Page

https://deadline.com/2025/09/film-workers-for-palestine-ava-duvernay-o
livia-colman-1236511823
/

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Wednesday, September 10, 2025 2:39 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Hamilton not a Lefty movie that was supposed to come out Pre-Covid..its a historical movie


impossible to match 1997 Titanic


Hamilton (2020) vs. Oppenheimer (2023) vs. Gladiator (2000)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Hamilto
n-(2020)/Oppenheimer-(2023)/Gladiator-(2000)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Saturday, September 13, 2025 7:41 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Dwayne Johnson Movie ‘The Smashing Machine’ Looks To Bust Way Into A24 Record Books With $20M Opening – Box Office Forecast

https://deadline.com/2025/09/dwayne-johnson-the-smashing-machine-box-o
ffice-projection-1236529047
/

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Saturday, September 13, 2025 9:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


How the mighty have fallen.

Gotta write a positive spin by calling the lowest weekend opening for a Dwayne Johnson movie an A24 success story.

That dude's career is pretty much over man. Turns out he was kind of a cunt that got too high on his own farts.

--------------------------------------------------

The Democrats are the party of Murder.

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Saturday, September 13, 2025 11:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
How the mighty have fallen.

Gotta write a positive spin by calling the lowest weekend opening for a Dwayne Johnson movie an A24 success story.

That dude's career is pretty much over man. Turns out he was kind of a cunt that got too high on his own farts.

--------------------------------------------------

The Democrats are the party of Murder.

Who is going to the movies when they can watch the same for free on streaming in October?

https://www.primetimer.com/features/the-smashing-machine-release-date-
cast-and-character-where-to-watch-and-more


Who is going to a fictionalized 2025 version of the 2002 HBO documentary titled The Smashing Machine: The Life and Times of Extreme Fighter Mark Kerr?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kerr_(fighter)#In_popular_culture

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, September 13, 2025 2:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
How the mighty have fallen.

Gotta write a positive spin by calling the lowest weekend opening for a Dwayne Johnson movie an A24 success story.

That dude's career is pretty much over man. Turns out he was kind of a cunt that got too high on his own farts.

--------------------------------------------------

The Democrats are the party of Murder.

Who is going to the movies when they can watch the same for free on streaming in October?

https://www.primetimer.com/features/the-smashing-machine-release-date-
cast-and-character-where-to-watch-and-more


Who is going to a fictionalized 2025 version of the 2002 HBO documentary titled The Smashing Machine: The Life and Times of Extreme Fighter Mark Kerr?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kerr_(fighter)#In_popular_culture

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two





Who is going to make the movies when nobody pays to see them?

Every single streaming service on the planet including Netflix has done nothing but lose money every quarter they've been in existence.

If they don't figure out how to get asses back in seats, they'll just stop making anything new for you to pirate.

--------------------------------------------------

The Democrats are the party of Murder.

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Saturday, September 13, 2025 5:03 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Who is going to make the movies when nobody pays to see them?

Every single streaming service on the planet including Netflix has done nothing but lose money every quarter they've been in existence.

If they don't figure out how to get asses back in seats, they'll just stop making anything new for you to pirate.

--------------------------------------------------

The Democrats are the party of Murder.

The two movies I liked in the last year were low budget and no dialogue:

1) Myth of Man (2025)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt31272547/

2) Flow (2024)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4772188/

The world would be better if there was less talking and fewer high budget movies.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, September 13, 2025 5:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
The world would be better if there was less talking and fewer high budget movies.



That might just have been the most intelligent thing that you have ever said.

--------------------------------------------------

The Democrats are the party of Murder.

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Sunday, September 14, 2025 4:14 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Will cartoons J-Anime win?

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1965788895838376058#m

Weapons 100M OS - 232.4M WW
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33573-weapons-os-thread-100m-
os-2324m-ww/page/2/#comments



King author, this piece of sicko degenerate filth keeps getting movie deals and has a movie The Long Walk. He used to also write under the pseudonym Richard Bachman, a short story The Fifth Quarter was published under the pseudonym John Swithen, the Long Walk was published under the Bachman author name.

For teenagers and kids reading his books his horror might seem original but he seems to have stolen a lot of material or got inspired by other works. King seems to have taken material from other authors such as the dark fantasy Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury, King acknowledges the influence of Bram Stoker, Shirley Jackson, Don Robertson's novels Robert A. Heinlein's book The Door into Summer, writings of Joseph Payne Brennan and a fan and influenced by the work of John D. MacDonald.


King is neither a great writer nor is he original


Stephen King JUST GOT BANNED After LYING About Charlie Kirk After His Death! Faces HUGE BACKLASH



he used to be 'Left' but more more nromal Lefty tolerable, he recently started defending pedophiles, attacking Corey Feldman. King has worked with tv and movies studios, Shooter Jennings Southern Rock guy and Michael Jackson also accused of pedo-ish stuff and King recently made a name for himself as a sufferer of late-stage, terminal Trump Derangement Syndrome who just doesn't know when to STFU


Weapons (2025) vs. World War Z (2013) vs. The Long Walk (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Weapons
-(2025)/World-War-Z/Long-Walk-The-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Sunday, September 14, 2025 9:21 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You ever hear about Richard Bachman's book RAGE?

It was like a blueprint for school shootings back before school shootings were a thing. I think he published that either before I was born, or right after I was born.

Then there was the child sex scenes in his book "IT" that didn't make it to either of the movie versions they made, for obvious reasons.



ETA: King wrote RAGE while he was in High School in 1970. He didn't release it until after he was publishing books under his own name.





--------------------------------------------------

The Democrats are the party of Murder.

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