2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Monday, June 23, 2025 11:49
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VIEWED: 3094
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Friday, June 13, 2025 6:38 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

I've only seen Flint Dicker in 3 second bits in other youtuber videos before now. I didn't
know this was a thing and that it was from a channel with over 7.4 Million
followers!!!???? What????

This is something I'm going to have to devote some time to, and it's far better than it
probably has any right to be.

Brilliant setup with the Choose-Your-Own-Adventure story. They must have made a killing on the ad revenue here. Twist that algorithm up in a pretzel with all these unlisted(hidden) videos.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, June 18, 2025 4:27 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

December 2025

Cineverse Sets U.S. Release Dates For Horror Reboots ‘Silent Night, Deadly Night’
https://deadline.com/2025/06/silent-night-deadly-night-return-silent-h
ill-release-dates-1236436030/

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Thursday, June 19, 2025 9:26 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Lots of Flops but none as bad as Joker 2 Ass-Rape and what budget lesson did they learn after Folie à Deux’ cost so much to make?

Thunderbolts struggled

Horror is doing ok and Sinners was praised

Sinners (2025) vs. The Matrix (1999) vs. Deadpool & Wolverine (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Sinners
-(2025)/Matrix-The/Deadpool-and-Wolverine-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Thunderbolts* (2025) vs. Joker: Folie à Deux (2024) vs. A Minecraft Movie (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Thunder
bolts-(2025)/Joker-Folie-a-Deux-(2024)/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Thursday, June 19, 2025 2:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

It appears that nobody learned any lessons on budgets so far.

I'm not going to do any graphs or math on the thing, but look at these insane budgets across the board from blockbusters to kids movies to even the horror genre.

My guess is that budgets overall have increased 30 to 40% from 2023 to 2025 across the board.

The only "lesson" that I believe they have learned isn't really a lesson, but just the reality of things. The venture capital has dried up, which means they can't just keep getting a bunch of near interest-free loans to keep funding these woke dumpster fires.

So in lieu of dropping any budgets as they should be doing, the amount of new content (ie: Crap) from streaming to theatrical releases has dropped significantly in that same time frame.

Disney is getting hit particularly hard this year, but I don't really think that's because of any recent Production decisions they've made. My belief is that it is by design the way they re-situated their movie releases and streaming content crap over the last two years.

Think about it for a moment...

How many movies did Disney release last year compared to this year? How many of them were successful last year and how many bombed compared to this year?

Though I'm not going to take the time to go through old posts and/or research these numbers, we already know that Disney made bank in 2024 off of only a few movies (Deadpool & Wolverine, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Mufasa: The Lion King).

But they decided to release a bunch of movies they knew were going to bomb in 2025. Most of them were movies that were easily ready to go out at nearly any point in time in 2024. (Snow White, Thunderbolts*, Blacktain Anti-America, the upcoming Fantastic 4... as well as finally putting out the soon to be ridiculed Ironheart garbage streaming show)

The end of the Fiscal year for Disney is right around the end of September every year.

Quote:
Disney's fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to September 30. This means that for most years, the fiscal year ends on September 30th, but occasionally it will end on a different date to ensure it aligns with this Saturday. For example, in fiscal year 2024, Disney's fiscal year ended on September 28, 2024, according to the SEC.

What day is Avatar 3 scheduled to be released?

December 19th... With a re-release of Avatar 2 scheduled when???

October 3rd.

I expect a banner year for Disney next year after dumping all of their woke trash into the dumpster fire this year, with Lilo and Stitch making up for a good amount of their current 2025 losses, with tax write-offs for all the bombs bringing them close to parity until their fiscal year 2026 begins in October.

My prediction for Disney is that they will do at least as well in 2026 as they did in 2024.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, June 20, 2025 10:24 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Hollywood somewhat struggling, some other studios outside the Big Two really struggle and suffer money loss

World wide Cinema makes money

Disney Leads U.S. Box Office With $1.1B Year To Date, But Warner Bros Is Billion-Bound Too
https://deadline.com/2025/06/box-office-2025-disney-warner-bros-123643
8104/

2026 Could Be One Of The Biggest Years Ever At The Box Office
https://www.slashfilm.com/1889952/why-2026-box-office-biggest-years-ev
er/

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Friday, June 20, 2025 4:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Disney Leads U.S. Box Office With $1.1B Year To Date, But Warner Bros Is Billion-Bound Too
https://deadline.com/2025/06/box-office-2025-disney-warner-bros-123643
8104/

Extremely misleading title from deadline here. As I've written about and debunked here not too long ago, Disney has spent 3 to 4 times as much on budgets to get that $1.1B and even with the Lilo and Stitch movie doing as well as it did they are deep in the red for the year. The incoming flop of Elio as well as the very likely Fantastic 4 flop will just make the year even worse for them.

Meanwhile, WB's 2nd place worldwide gross is finding them very, very comfortably in the Black for 2025 so far.

Quote:
2026 Could Be One Of The Biggest Years Ever At The Box Office
https://www.slashfilm.com/1889952/why-2026-box-office-biggest-years-ev
er/

I have predicted right above you that 2026 is going to be a banner year for Disney (assuming they did dump the rest of their woke shit by September 30th of this year, and they've learned any lessons at all about budgeting and making movies that people actually want to see instead of far-left ideology that nobody is willing to pay for anymore).

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, June 22, 2025 11:31 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Warner Bros. Pictures Unveils Release Date For Chinese Co-Production ‘Tom And Jerry: Forbidden Compass’

https://deadline.com/2025/06/warner-bros-pictures-china-tom-and-jerry-
forbidden-compass-release-date-1236439076/

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Monday, June 23, 2025 6:41 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Oscars?

History of Sound
https://deadline.com/2025/06/mubis-the-history-of-sound-release-date-1
236435753/

Oliver Hermanus, won the Queer Palm Award at the 2011 Cannes Film Festival. He's a White South African parents were ANC activists, he moved overseas to London? California? German director Emmerich helped Hermanus make his first feature film, "Shirley Adams"? he made 'Living' about 1950s London, a humorless bureaucrat decides to take time off work, also Moffie in 1981 South Africa must complete his brutal and racist two years of compulsory military service while hiding he's a homosexual, as a director he might tick the correct boxes for Hollywood critics

3 different directors...too many cooks?

ELIO "Giant Alien Battle Scene" Trailer

Budget $150 million, Current Box office $35 million

Disney / Pixar Animation Studios

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Monday, June 23, 2025 10:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Not sure if you were following my Elio thread or not, but Bruce predicted $35 Million for the weekend in the US alone.

I said if it did that and the International number came in higher (as it typically does), at say... $55 Million for a nice round $90 Million internationally, then it would still end up being a MAJOR flop.

Well... We just got a $35 Million WORLDWIDE open on this one.

That's 11.6% of the production budget made back on Weekend 1.

Honestly, I think I'd be hard pressed to find another movie I've EVER seen do that bad before. Maybe the bottom few in the 2024 graph that I made? Maybe. But they would have all been low-to-mid budget movies that most people already forgot about. I've never seen a Blockbuster movie do THIS bad before.

I wonder if anybody is going to report this Truth, or if they're all going to try to gaslight you into believing that it's doing well like Bruce did when he said that $3 Million on Preview Thursday was a "strong" number for Elio.

This could be the last movie that Pixar ever makes.

Thanks Bob Iger. Thanks DEI.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, June 23, 2025 10:21 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Here's what Google AI said when I asked if it was the biggest failure of all time:

Quote:
Yes, Elio, the latest animated film from Pixar, is experiencing a significant box office failure, marking the worst opening weekend in the studio's history. The film grossed only $21 million domestically and $14 million internationally, totaling $35 million globally, according to That Park Place, The Daily Beast, and Variety. This performance falls short of even Pixar's previous lowest debut, Elemental, which earned $30 million domestically and $44.5 million worldwide. Despite mostly positive reviews and high audience scores, the film failed to attract significant ticket sales.

Not much gaslighting going on that I can tell. At least from the headlines. They all pretty much read like this one from Forbes:

‘Elio’ Flops With Worst Opening Weekend Ever For A Pixar Movie

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timlammers/2025/06/22/elio-has-worst-open
ing-weekend-ever-for-a-disney-pixar-movie/

I think the gaslighting here is that they're not telling you that it IS or is very close to being the biggest blockbuster failure of all time.

Can't wait to see the drop next weekend.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, June 23, 2025 11:49 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

its bad as an opening and not sure on staying power but I believe there was much worse

Joker-2 AssRaped Joker Folie à Deux (2024) vs. Elio (2025) vs. Strange World (2022)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Joker-F
olie-a-Deux-(2024)/Elio-(2025)/Strange-World-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Elio (2025) vs. A Minecraft Movie (2025) vs. Barbie (2023)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Elio-(2
025)/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)/Barbie-(2023)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Pixar's sci-fi misfire, ELIO, failed to launch internationally too, grossing just $14M.
TOP MARKETS:
1. KOREA ($1.8M)
2. MEXICO ($1.4M)
3. FRANCE ($1.3M)
3. UK ($1.2M)
China opens next week. Japan, August 1st.
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32972-elio/

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USER	POST DATE
JAYNEZTOWN	06.23 06:41
6ixStringJack	06.23 10:15
6ixStringJack	06.23 10:21
JAYNEZTOWN	06.23 11:49