2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Friday, June 20, 2025 16:08
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Sunday, April 13, 2025 2:11 PM

Things just got interesting...

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/259110830-Weekend-projections-Minecra
ft-enjoys-strong-hold-against-army-of-new-releases

Though the worldwide total fell very comfortably in my range, the way it got there surprised me a bit.

International totals were lower than the peaks I thought they could possibly hit, but the US Box office defied most predictions and ended up only 2-million short from the top of the wide range that Variety gave it for weekend 2. $80 Million for the weekend projected, and because Universal has no reason to lie about these numbers temporarily for better headlines, I suspect that it did better than that. This is only a 50% drop at $80m, and it is possible that it could end up with the $82 Million that Variety predicted at their top of range.

I have not, nor would I ever have predicted only a 50% drop here (which is even less than that, when you remove the Thursday Preview number out and compare both 3-day weekends).

So now we're already sitting at $550 Million worldwide, which is a $100 Million gross profit for Warner Bros and counting.

I do believe that I might have to increase my prediction once the final totals come in on Monday. Minecraft's US total was dipping quite significantly during the week compared to Super Mario Bros, but after the 2nd weekend it caught right back up and they remain neck and neck in the Domestic Box office (when not adjusting for inflation, of course).

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

The international total however, at least so far, paints a much different picture for Minecraft. In the end, The Super Mario Bros movie only got 42.3% of its total worldwide gross in the US. As of right now, 51% of Minecraft's worldwide box office is from the US.

Less than 9% might not sound like much, but you have to consider that's a 9% on both ends (meaning that it's effectively 9% less for domestic and 9% more for international at the same time, which is an important distinction to make in this case). And when we're talking about $1.4 Billion that results in huge differences in your predicted final worldwide total.

It is still my opinion that there is still zero chance for Minecraft to make $1 Billion, but the small drop in US box office on Weekend 2 is now starting to lead me to believe that $650 is going to come and go and we're going to be talking over $700 Million very soon here.

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Monday, April 14, 2025 1:20 PM

It appears that somebody must have misspoke or overstated the original projections for the weekend. I figured that the real number was actually going to be higher than $80 Million, but that projection has now been reduced to only $78.5 Million before the final numbers come in.

$1.5 Million doesn't really change all that much in the scheme of things, but I did want to point this out because I said earlier that I thought it would be higher than $80 and could possibly hit the high end of Variety's prediction for the weekend. Even at $78.5 Million it defied nearly everyone's expectations, including mine.

Mistakes can be made and I've seen them in places like this where they don't usually belong before, so it's not a huge surprise. Usually when I see projections higher than the actual numbers though, it's when a big-budget flick fails pretty badly and they're looking to pad those negative headlines early with higher than reasonable Projections, and usually only in the first two weekends.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, April 15, 2025 3:22 PM

I don't believe we're going to see those two lines cross again...

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, April 16, 2025 9:02 PM

maybe predictions were off a little I tought Thunderbolts would be out earlier

its going to be a big big hit maybe 'huge' the competition is meh I was into the movie before "Under Pressure" trailer

not sure how good it does but it makes money

it gets Disney / Marvel cash but there is the loss of neo remake nu Snow White

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Wednesday, April 16, 2025 10:17 PM

I wouldn't go into nearly any Marvel movie these days with any positive vibes until after you see how opening weekends plays out.

I don't know where you're hearing this thing is going to possibly be a big hit. I see that Disney thinks it could be a sleeper hit because of some alleged good preview showings. Predictions that are out right now are somewhere in between Snow White and Blacktain Anti-America for the opening weekend Domestic, so unless Disney finally figured out a way to make their movies under $100 Million overnight and this was the first one, my assumption right now is that any Marvel movie coming out without the names Deadpool and/or Wolverine will lose money for Disney.

You know what the budget is?

...

Google AI's answer:

Quote:
The Thunderbolts movie has a reported production budget of $200 million. This figure does not include the estimated $100-150 million in global marketing and promotional costs. To break even, the film may need to earn between $700-750 million globally.

Google AI is high on crack and/or Reddit.

If it cost $200 Million to make, it needs to make $500 Million to break even.

And that's assuming that the 2.5xRoT model is still even valid in 2025.

I think, counter-intuitively after what the Democrats inflicted on the poorest quarter of Americans in the last 4 years, that things are actually getting quite a bit cheaper to get done in Hollywood than they ever typically would be. Stuff isn't being shot, equipment isn't being rented, and prime real estate where smaller studios would usually have to book time are only being utilized at about 1/3rd of their capacity on any given day. We're talking stuff that you got on a long waiting list for unless you were one of the It People. You can just walk in off the street and rent out space today for today if you got the scratch.

I don't hear ANYBODY in 2025 trying to push the lie that some were a few years back that a movie needed to make 3 times the production budget to break even, and you might remember it took me MONTHS of reading articles from mostly left-wing sources and what they were saying about it that I finally decided to raise the model from 2.0x to 2.5x.

I actually hear a lot of people going back to the 2x model right now. But that could be Hollywood feeding bad info out there too. Who knows anymore.

All I know is that the so-called "AI" bot on duty tonight is getting really bad info from somewhere and presenting it at the top of the search results.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, April 16, 2025 10:51 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
All I know is that the so-called "AI" bot on duty tonight is getting really bad info from somewhere and presenting it at the top of the search results.

Yanno.....

If it is so smart and it has all the time in the world to search the internet before bringing a result back to us at a speed that may as well be instantaneous, why is it bringing me this trash that came out of some random dummy shitposting on reddit?

What's wrong buddy? I ain't in that big a hurry. I can wait 10 more seconds for you to do some more searching if it means that you can double check your work a few dozen times times before just grabbing the first post you saw on Reddit and coming back to me with "facts" that were clearly derived from a reddit-based troll post and/or a very stupid person.

How much electricity did you use up finding this crap, filtering it through a spellcheck and other obvious doctoring up you did when most people can't write, and putting it out there as a legitimate answer to my question? How can you even justify your own existence in the current state you are in? You must be aware from the articles written about you that you're being billed as something that can be trusted and is going to save lives, and yet you would come back to me with this answer and I'm supposed to believe I can rely on any answer you've ever given me in the past about any topic?

Where are the checks on its own checks? What if I was asking it important questions that needed solid information quickly?

And as going on half a century of living behind us now has learned us, there's a whole lot of really dumb folk out there.

I'll let you make your own correlations with those two concepts and what implications for the future they may bring.

hmmmmmmmmm...

I wonder how long it will be before more people than not don't even realize that there is more stuff below the AI response that is taking up more than 100% of their tiny phone screen gives shits out. I think it's a question about a plausible situation in the future since a good deal of young folk might not have ever spent much time in front of a computer that offers a MUCH different experience with the internet than the phone or tablet does.

Oh... what am I talking about. At the rate we're going, they'll forget to even bother learning how to read before that became a problem, and by that point, their devices that they trust more than their own mother will verbally tell them exactly what they need to hear whenever they ask it a question.

80% of the cretins walking around with these abominations would never touch a computer in their lives if everything hadn't been dumbed down to the point that they could wrap their monkey brains around them just enough to get it to make their lives easier, but not nearly enough to understand just what all they give away in return once they've made themselves the fucking product.

Why bother going to the trouble of collaring everyone when it turns out that you can get nearly everyone to collar themselves and make them think it was their own idea?

I liked the world a whole lot more when all the cool tech was limited to only the top 20% of people in the intelligence pool, and everything that we were interested in was just labeled as "uncool" to the monkeys that were too stupid to even figure out how to turn them on, let alone what you were supposed to do when you saw that little white line flashing but nothing else was happening.

This was a social contract we had for decades... and the world would be a much better place today than it turned out had it never been. But one day the price of tech went way down while the tech itself kept improving, and some point we finally crossed that line where the tech became affordable while being capable enough to bypass all the hurdles that made trying to sell computers to monkeys just completely evaporate. And then the contract was breached, and nothing was ever the same again.

Fast forward 30 years and now all the monkeys run around with tech I only could have dreamed owning one day when I was a kid, while I stay as far the hell away from all of it as I can on most days.

Life is just funny that way sometimes.

I don't know about you.... but if I could go back to the 90's and live there forever, I would.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, April 17, 2025 3:40 PM

and Marvel Disney are going All-In with the Fan4 ...another try

third remade btw tht is is you dont count low-budget specialists Roger Corman and Bernd Eichinger, an unreleased 1994 English-language German superhero film, story by Craig J. Nevius based on comicbook

so officially its three strikes youre out?

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Thursday, April 17, 2025 4:20 PM

If Pedro is in something, I'm out.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, April 18, 2025 5:41 AM

Minecraft yeah it seems its not beating the Super MarioBros Movie, certainly not beating Incredibles 2, it has defeated 'Sonic' and made money so Hollywood does have a 'hit' of sorts

...and people seemed nervous, some downward dips,

the economy stupid

and it was starting to fall before the latest 'Trade War' stuff took off

A movie is entering top 10 WW, just in a single market
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33033-stop-the-world-a-movie-
is-entering-top-10-ww-just-in-a-single-market/

SNOW WHITE | 90.9M overseas | 168.4M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32980-snow-white-909m-oversea
s-1684m-worldwide/page/2/#comments

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Saturday, April 19, 2025 12:05 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't believe we're going to see those two lines cross again...

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

3 days later...

It's had a fantastic hold. It grossed $6.5 Million on it's 3rd Thursday night, counting Preview Thursday. $6.5 Million is more than what all but the top performing movies of the last two years get on their own Preview Thursday.

Bruce is predicting only a -26% drop this weekend, which is the lowest prediction I've ever seen for a movie since I started paying attention.

Though that would keep the lines from separating any further this weekend, that's all it would do. Even at only a -26% drop, that would be $57 Million. The Super Mario Movie had a MUCH better 2nd weekend hold than Minecraft did, so even though it dropped -35% on weekend 3, it still made $59 Million.

-26% or better is nothing short of a miracle, in my opinion, so there's no way it's going to earn enough to bring the lines back together even though it's done amazing all week.

And the percentage of the Domestic/International will slightly improve twoard the international audience after they dump their weekly numbers on Sunday, it won't change it much from roughly 53% to maybe %50. Super Mario Bros had a 57.7% international haul. So if Minecraft is not doing as well in the US as Super Mario did, it's doing even worse internationally.

It's still nowhere near a $1 Billion movie, but everyone involved should be proud of what they did in this rough market.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, April 19, 2025 10:17 AM

‘A Minecraft Movie’ Review – The Building Blocks For The Coming Era Of Slop

https://boundingintocomics.com/movies/movie-reviews/a-minecraft-movie-
review-the-building-blocks-for-the-coming-era-of-slop/

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Saturday, April 19, 2025 2:04 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
‘A Minecraft Movie’ Review – The Building Blocks For The Coming Era Of Slop

https://boundingintocomics.com/movies/movie-reviews/a-minecraft-movie-
review-the-building-blocks-for-the-coming-era-of-slop/

I'll take slop over woke, but Hollywood can't settle for that. That's what was destroying Hollywood and allowed for all the woke shit in the first place.

And until they figure out a model that works, they'd better slash those actor's budgets.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, April 19, 2025 2:09 PM

Looks like they got the internationals for the week really early this time around.

That with the $16 Million it pulled in on its 3rd Friday night gives us $662,526,515 worldwide, beating the high end of my total worldwide prediction by Minecraft by $12 Million after only 15 days.

It's still not a Billion Dollar movie, but it will get a lot closer than I thought it would. I don't have any exact math in front of me, but that was something in the area of $80 to $90 Million internationally, which is still big numbers.

It's far enough along now where if it keeps managing these very low week-to-week dropoffs I might end up eating crow over the Billion Dollar thing too if nothing comes out in the next few weeks that draws young audiences elsewhere.

There's no scenario where it comes close to beating Super Mario Bros., but it would be foolish of me to say 100% that it won't hit 1 Billion at this point. I don't think the chances of that are good at all, but I'd say there is a very small chance that it could given the right circumstances going forward.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, April 20, 2025 11:25 AM

Maybe I started drinking Bruce's Kool-Aid here...

I mentioned that he predicted a -26% for the weekend drop, which by far was the smallest drop I've ever seen predicted.

It actually dropped -43%.

$41,300,000 for the weekend, and 2nd place to Sinners.

$695,526,515 worldwide total after Weekend 3.

This movie will not make $1 Billion.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, April 20, 2025 2:17 PM

So video game movies
and horror it is then

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Sunday, April 20, 2025 2:29 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Maybe I started drinking Bruce's Kool-Aid here...

I mentioned that he predicted a -26% for the weekend drop, which by far was the smallest drop I've ever seen predicted.

It actually dropped -43%.

Mario Bros Movie had a huge international, Nintendo sells all over the world with all types of gamers, it probably because part of recognizable pop culture with all the toys, cartoons over the years
and even the silly 1993 movie probably gave it mainstream exposure with Dennis Hopper, Bob Hoskins, John Leguizamo, Fiona Shaw, Samantha Mathis, Lance Henriksen, Fisher Stevens.

The Legend of Ochi 2025 next week?

it seems that WB's movie SINNERS beat Minecraft with its $45-46 Million numbers in its Easter weekend

doing well especially for a period supernatural horror film

Budget $90–100 million

https://web.archive.org/web/20250119091300/https://deadline.com/2025/0
1/warner-bros-executive-exits-2025-movies-1236256895/
,
https://web.archive.org/web/20250407233307/https://www.hollywoodreport
er.com/movies/movie-news/did-minecraft-change-mike-de-luca-and-pam-abdy-1236184061/

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

$41,300,000 for the weekend, and 2nd place to Sinners.

SinnersMovie - $45.60M

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1913993677627875709

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Monday, April 21, 2025 7:16 AM

'Ne Zha 2' English Dub Targets Global Market After Record China Run

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/ne-zha-2-english-dub-global-market-
1236373335/

China Box Office: ‘Ne Zha 2’ Returns to No. 1
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/china-box-office-ne-zha-2-no-
1-1236373661/

sick of remakes?

...even more are coming...

‘Bridgerton’ Nicola Coughlan Slams HBO ‘Harry Potter’ Project: “Wouldn’t Touch It With A Pole”

https://deadline.com/2025/04/nicola-coughlan-slams-hbo-harry-potter-pr
oject-jk-rowling-1236372553/

Delroy Lindo Says Marvel Was ‘Really Interested’ In His Input For the ‘Blade’ Reboot Until the Film ‘Went Off the Rails’

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/delroy-lindo-marvel-blade-reboot-we
nt-off-the-rails-1236373492/

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Tuesday, April 22, 2025 4:30 AM

Sinners Takes Over Top Spot At Weekend Box Office
https://bleedingcool.com/movies/weekend-box-office-sinners-a-minecraft
-movie-king-of-kings/

‘Sinners’ opened higher than initial estimates to lead North American box office on $48m
https://www.screendaily.com/news/sinners-opened-higher-than-initial-es
timates-to-lead-north-american-box-office-on-48m/5204082.article

Sinners put a stake through Minecraft's box office streak
https://www.avclub.com/weekend-box-office-sinners-a-minecraft-movie

how it all changes

Zelda speedrunner movie pulled from PBS will air on Twitch first
https://www.polygon.com/gaming/561806/pbs-zelda-speedrunner-film-twitc
h-premiere

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Tuesday, April 22, 2025 9:09 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
how it all changes

Zelda speedrunner movie pulled from PBS will air on Twitch first
https://www.polygon.com/gaming/561806/pbs-zelda-speedrunner-film-twitc
h-premiere

Wow. They actually still have gaming on Twitch? I thought it was just an e-whore website now.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, April 22, 2025 9:10 AM

Clownfish TV just yesterday said there's no way that Minecraft isn't a Billion Dollar movie by now.

We'll see about that.

$716,524,380 worldwide after Weekend 3. 48% Domestic / 52% International.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, April 22, 2025 2:10 PM

Minecraft I didn t not know how to predict this, I was thinking low first maybe 500 Million maybe much much lower but then its fanbase was coming out in support and I was thinking maybe 750-880 maybe I wasn't sure about the Billion but it opened really big near Mario levels, now its $722 so it will probably beat 750 soon
What it has going for it is its a young people's movie so they usually have staying power and it has a fanbase that buy to see it more than once again 'staying power'

however a lot of people say its cinematic garbage and Sinners already has it beaten, Thunderbolts, The Legend of Ochi should finish off a lot of its earning

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Tuesday, April 22, 2025 2:13 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't believe we're going to see those two lines cross again...

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

3 days later...

It's had a fantastic hold. It grossed $6.5 Million on it's 3rd Thursday night, counting Preview Thursday. $6.5 Million is more than what all but the top performing movies of the last two years get on their own Preview Thursday.

Bruce is predicting only a -26% drop this weekend, which is the lowest prediction I've ever seen for a movie since I started paying attention.

Though that would keep the lines from separating any further this weekend, that's all it would do. Even at only a -26% drop, that would be $57 Million. The Super Mario Movie had a MUCH better 2nd weekend hold than Minecraft did, so even though it dropped -35% on weekend 3, it still made $59 Million.

-26% or better is nothing short of a miracle, in my opinion, so there's no way it's going to earn enough to bring the lines back together even though it's done amazing all week.

And the percentage of the Domestic/International will slightly improve twoard the international audience after they dump their weekly numbers on Sunday, it won't change it much from roughly 53% to maybe %50. Super Mario Bros had a 57.7% international haul. So if Minecraft is not doing as well in the US as Super Mario did, it's doing even worse internationally.

It's still nowhere near a $1 Billion movie, but everyone involved should be proud of what they did in this rough market.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

I'm not seeing the $1 Billion that ClownfishTV says...

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

With a 52%/48% Domestic/International ratio, it would need to make more than $500
Million in the US, and I see any reason to believe it's going to get there.

I keep reading everywhere about "how well it's holding on", but I think they're just so
used to flop after flop this point that they forget where the real benchmarks are supposed
to be.

Weekend Drops so far: -52%, -48%

Week Drops so far: -49%

These are healthy drops, but they're nothing special. They only look really good right
now because of the company they've shared since the beginning of the year.

If we continue on this -50% drop, it makes $20 Million next weekend, and $10 Million in
the US on Weekend 5. Yeah... We're already at that point in the run of this movie.

So... How do you get from $350 Million to $500 Million when we're already looking at a great
possibility of only banking $20 Million over next weekend? Especially when the $10 Million +
weekdays, even on Cheap Seat Tuesday are well behind them. We're looking at maybe
$3 Million per week day this week. That'll be $1.5 Million the following week, and then
under $1 Million per week day the week after.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, April 23, 2025 2:31 AM

its been a good effort by a movie with mixed feedback, its certainly not beating The Super Mario Bros film.

Ryan Coogler Reacts to ‘Sinners’ Box Office Victory in Thank You Letter to Fans: ‘Your Response to the Film Has Re-Invigorated Me’

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/ryan-coogler-sinners-box-office-tha
nk-you-letter-1236375238/

‘Sinners’: How Ryan Coogler’s Period Vampire Pic Found Salvation at the Easter Box Office - The movie toppled 'A Minecraft Movie' in a surprise upset and much-needed win for Warner Bros. movie chiefs Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/sinners-box-office-michael-b-j
ordan/

Box Office: ‘Sinners’ Scores Second Best Monday For R-Rated Horror Movie At Box Office With $7.8M, Third Best Overall For A Horror Film

https://deadline.com/2025/04/box-office-sinners-monday-1236373779/

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Wednesday, April 23, 2025 6:08 AM

probably only a matter of time before they try that Pokemon crap again

THIS anime franchise is world’s highest-grossing, three times of Marvel, its earning is Rs...., not One Piece, Demon Slayer
https://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-this-anime-franchise-pok
-mon-is-world-s-highest-grossing-three-times-of-marvel-its-earning-is-rs-not-one-piece-dragon-ball-3145503
Their ratings and viewership still come at the top, however, the series that has beat even their popularity regarding viewership and revenues is Pokémon. It has been 29 years, and the Japanese franchise has earned a whopping USD 100 billion

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Wednesday, April 23, 2025 4:53 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Box Office: ‘Sinners’ Scores Second Best Monday For R-Rated Horror Movie At Box Office With $7.8M, Third Best Overall For A Horror Film

https://deadline.com/2025/04/box-office-sinners-monday-1236373779/

Only if you're not counting inflation.

X-Men Origins Wolverine is in the Top 100 action movies of all time if you look at the box office and inflation isn't taken into account.

My guess is that this really is somewhere closer to the 100th best Monday for a horror film if inflation was considered.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, April 25, 2025 1:15 PM

Minecraft is still making $2 Million + on your random week day this week, but Thursday's $2.05 Million was a -69% drop from the previous Thursday.

Bruce finally put the week 3 profits up, and they fell -48% from the previous week, after a -49% drop on the first week.

This is average blockbuster behavior. It only seems great now because there is no real competition to compare it to so far in 2025.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, April 27, 2025 12:35 PM

-44% drop for the weekend. $22,720,000.

Worldwide Total after Weekend 4: $816,567,000

It wrapped up Weekend 3 with $695,526,515, or $121 Million for the week.

Let's be super conservative and say it only drops -40% week to week from here on out...

Weekend 5: $889 Million (+72 Million)
Weekend 6: $932 Million (+43 Million)
Weekend 7: $957 Million (+26 Million)
Weekend 8: $972 Million (+15 Million)
Weekend 9: $981 Million (+9 Million)
Weekend 10: $986 Million (+5 Million)
Weekend 11: $989 Million (+3 Million)
Weekend 12: $991 Million (+2 Million)

It gets close if we give it 3 full months and straight -40% drops from here on out.

But I don't see either of those scenarios playing out, let alone both of them.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, April 29, 2025 6:12 PM

Damn. Looks like somebody might have finally made a good movie.

Weekend projections: Sinners heads into the stratosphere with $45-million second weekend

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/259210830-Weekend-projections-Sinners
-heads-into-the-stratosphere-with-45-million-second-weekend

Quote:
Sinners will decline just 6% from its opening weekend to earn $45 million, according to Warner Bros. Sunday-morning projection. Taking out the film’s $4.7 million in previews, it’s actually up from last weekend, with Saturday’s estimated gross, $18.8 million, 14% higher than last Saturday. That’s an off-the-charts crazy performance. And there’s more…

Sinners is headed to the third-best second-weekend ever for a movie that opened over $40 million

I had no idea until today that numbers like this were even possible for a movie.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, May 1, 2025 5:00 PM

Haha! I knew they would do it and they didn't disappoint.

Tuesday's $43,887 domestic box office officially puts Snow White's worldwide gross at over $200 Million.

Do a google search for "snow white" and "milestone" and see how many articles with that headline popped up in the last 2 days.

The really funny thing about this one though is that even all the shill sites put "milestone" in their headline here, the second half of those headlines are all bad news. This movie did so bad that even the liars gave up trying to lie about it.

So... sadly, it did end up beating The Marvel's $199.7+ Million worldwide haul, but only in the eyes of fake journalists and people too dumb to do anything besides reading headlines.

Once you factor the inflation in, Snow White has no shot and grossing more than The Marvels did, even though that was only a couple years worth of inflation since The Marvels was released.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, May 4, 2025 3:05 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
-44% drop for the weekend. $22,720,000.

Worldwide Total after Weekend 4: $816,567,000

It wrapped up Weekend 3 with $695,526,515, or $121 Million for the week.

Let's be super conservative and say it only drops -40% week to week from here on out...

Weekend 5: $889 Million (+72 Million)
Weekend 6: $932 Million (+43 Million)
Weekend 7: $957 Million (+26 Million)
Weekend 8: $972 Million (+15 Million)
Weekend 9: $981 Million (+9 Million)
Weekend 10: $986 Million (+5 Million)
Weekend 11: $989 Million (+3 Million)
Weekend 12: $991 Million (+2 Million)

It gets close if we give it 3 full months and straight -40% drops from here on out.

But I don't see either of those scenarios playing out, let alone both of them.

Exactly a -40% drop from last weekend. (Bruce was predicting only -23%)

$873,409,000 Worldwide Gross after Weekend 5.

We saw -50% during the weekdays, and -80% on Monday from the week prior (the Monday after Easter weekend Monday). So this explains a good bit of the $15 Million shortfall from the number above, despite the perfect -40% weekend drop. The rest must be because it didn't make as much internationally at the same time.

So even with a great 5th weekend hold, it's going to be even more impossible for Minecraft to break a Billion.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, May 6, 2025 5:53 PM

Yup... We're coming to the end of Minecraft making any real money for sure.

$637,302 on Monday, and the first sub-million day was actually Thursday of last week at just under 1 Million.

It's still got some life in it. Monday's number is still only a -38% drop from the previous Monday, so maybe it can manage to keep around only a -40% drop from here on out. We're just too far away from $1 Billion for it to matter now.

Nothing for WB to complain about though. Anything else they make is gravy as they broke even on this one a long time ago.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, May 7, 2025 2:57 PM

Minecraft vs Sinners?...Warner Bros could have made more money if it were not in competition with itself

April, now May its very very late but Hollyweird movies are making money again or kind of...almost making money

Warner Bros.'s Sinners grossed an estimated $4.15M on Tuesday (from 3,347 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $187.08M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1920152344609894656#m

James Gunn ‘Really Understood the Assignment’ With ‘Superman’ Relaunch and ‘New Version of DC,' WB Studio Heads Say
https://www.thewrap.com/pam-abdy-mike-de-luca-warner-bros-superman-jam
es-gunn-smartless-podcast/

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Wednesday, May 7, 2025 9:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Minecraft vs Sinners?...Warner Bros could have made more money if it were not in competition with itself

To be fair, I don't think anybody at WB was expecting either of these movies to come close to doing as well as they did. I couldn't blame them. Sinners has performed far better than any movie has since I started paying attention (not in total gross of course, but the weekend drops). There's not even a close runner-up.

There may have been some who were praying for a Billion on Minecraft, but I don't think anybody really expected this kind of result, especially with how soft the box office has regularly become. I only gave it $650 Million worldwide on my top-end.

And I don't REALLY think there's much overlap with these two movies, even though they're in the theater at the same time. Most of the people who would see Minecraft twice, or who haven't seen it once yet are probably too young to be let in to see Sinners even with an adult.

Quote:
April, now May its very very late but Hollyweird movies are making money again or kind of...almost making money

Two years in a row now... it's starting to solidify a trend. I wonder if 2026 is going to bring a 3rd year where they don't really make money until late-April/early-May.

Quote:
Warner Bros.'s Sinners grossed an estimated $4.15M on Tuesday (from 3,347 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $187.08M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1920152344609894656#m

Weekend drops so far are -5% and -28%. If you remove Preview Thursday from the first weekend (which you should), Sinners actually made 5.5% more on Weekend 2 than it did on Opening Weekend in the US.

Quote:
James Gunn ‘Really Understood the Assignment’ With ‘Superman’ Relaunch and ‘New Version of DC,' WB Studio Heads Say
https://www.thewrap.com/pam-abdy-mike-de-luca-warner-bros-superman-jam
es-gunn-smartless-podcast/

We'll see about that soon.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, May 10, 2025 3:30 AM

‘Thunderbolts*’ Striking $35M 2nd Weekend; ‘Sinners’ Strong $20M For 4th Frame – Box Office Update

https://deadline.com/2025/05/box-office-thunderbolts-sinners-minecraft
-1236391477/

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Saturday, May 10, 2025 7:27 AM

Warner Bros.'s Sinners has passed the $200M global mark.
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32981-sinners/

Thunderbolts* (2025) vs. Joker: Folie à Deux (2024) vs. A Minecraft Movie (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Thunder
bolts-(2025)/Joker-Folie-a-Deux-(2024)/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

The Fantastic Four Reshoots
https://www.slashfilm.com/1855649/the-fantastic-four-first-steps-resho
ots-photos-marvel-silver-surfer-spoiler/

Sony's Until Dawn grossed an estimated $325K on Thursday (from 3,055 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $16.02M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1920870227325124973

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Saturday, May 10, 2025 1:24 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
‘Thunderbolts*’ Striking $35M 2nd Weekend; ‘Sinners’ Strong $20M For 4th Frame – Box Office Update

https://deadline.com/2025/05/box-office-thunderbolts-sinners-minecraft
-1236391477/

Thunderbolts will not be breaking even.

It needs $470 Million global. Including the $9 Million projected for Friday night, it's only got $190.5. That will be around $220 Million after the full weekend gross.

Not sure how they've been counting international money, or even what the opening weekend split look like, so I have no idea what the international boost is going to be this weekend. At first glance, it looks like Thunderbolts may be doing significantly better outside of the US than inside, so maybe there's still a chance. I'd have to see how much above $86 Million we get on the international take for Weekend 2. If Bruce has already been adding internationals for the week for that number, they're in real trouble again here.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, May 10, 2025 3:49 PM

Will Hollywood finally die in 2025, Trump however is doing his best to save it

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

It needs $470 Million global.

the Mouse will claim some nonsense just like WB / DC does

its Disney Marvel, they will claim they sold 100 Million on T-shirts, plastic toys, caps, phone apps, DVDs, then they will claim they are making more millions on board games or streamer downloads or something

https://www.marvel.com/games/marvel-vs-capcom-fighting-collection-arca
de-classics

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Saturday, May 10, 2025 5:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Will Hollywood finally die in 2025, Trump however is doing his best to save it

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

It needs $470 Million global.

the Mouse will claim some nonsense just like WB / DC does

its Disney Marvel, they will claim they sold 100 Million on T-shirts, plastic toys, caps, phone apps, DVDs, then they will claim they are making more millions on board games or streamer downloads or something

https://www.marvel.com/games/marvel-vs-capcom-fighting-collection-arca
de-classics

Unfortunately for them, they don't get to do that forever. They don't have access to the money printing presses our government has, and they've done so much self-inflicted brand damage over the last decade at this point that they already lost all of their own money printers that they had spent 90 years building before new "leadership" came in with the DEI HR team and they decided to blow them all up.

Outside of parks, they are losing money in every aspect of their business from merchandising to movies to streaming. And not insignificant amounts either. They bought Star Wars for $4 Billion and ruined it (along with what should have been the far more lucrative merchandising that was also killed by Disney). They ruined Indiana Jones. They flushed Marvel down the drain. They even found the time and a few hundred million to shit on the legacy of Willow while they were at it for good measure.

Let's not forget also that they lost their sweetheart multi-generational favored tax status in Florida because they took a stand on a tranny issue. A tranny issue they didn't even really support because they took all of their Lefty agenda out of the flicks before they were released in countries like China and those in the Middle East.

And it now costs a Family of four $1,400 PER DAY on average to go to a Disney park in America. My old man used to take his family every year for 10 days and it cost him $2,000 with the airfare included. Though inflation plays a part in this, this is not an inflationary problem. Price increases like that in such a short amount of time are only seen in the Healthcare industry.

Fights break out in the parks all the time. They have men dressed up as princesses talking to your kids (although they probably silently stopped doing that a few months ago, I would have to assume). The quality of the experience has gone down the tubes and the magic is gone.

And now they also have Universal Parks teamed up with Nintendo to do battle against, which is a war I don't think they could ever win among the children today.

So where are they going to keep finding this magical money to keep lying to their shareholders? The reserves are basically tapped at this point.

I don't think you'd see the Disney CFO coming out and blowing Trump this week if that wasn't the truth.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, May 11, 2025 7:02 AM

Facing a 'Cinematic Extinction Event,' Hollywood Must Stage a Comeback

https://www.thewrap.com/hollywood-stage-a-comeback-trump-tariffs-richa
rd-stellar/

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Monday, May 12, 2025 3:21 AM

Weekend Box Office Est. - New Zealand
https://x.com/numeroboxoffice/status/1921734576566923516
1. Thunderbolts* - $474k
2. SinnersMovie - $205k
3. TinaTheFilm - $142k

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Monday, May 12, 2025 2:08 PM

Awwwwwww....

The shitlib media missed out on a huge story opportunity here about Snow White's big comeback!

Did you check the weekend numbers out?

It had a 54% increase over last weekend! That's way bigger than Sinner's second week gain!

Yeah... It only grossed $335k for the weekend, but who's counting.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, May 13, 2025 5:31 AM

5 Reasons Why Thunderbolts' Box Office Is A Step In The Right Direction For Marvel

https://www.slashfilm.com/1857753/thunderbolts-box-office-marvel-win-r
easons/

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Wednesday, May 14, 2025 6:22 AM

Bollywood fears huge impact of Trump’s tariffs on foreign films
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/trump-tari
ffs-foreign-films-bollywood-india-box-office-b2750592.html
US president wants to impose 100 per cent levy on all films made outside US

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Friday, May 16, 2025 6:50 AM

Trade Wars with China, not yet says Chinese Man...still open for business

Paramount’s ‘Mission: Impossible’ Secures China Release Date
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-16/paramount-s-mission
-impossible-secures-china-release-date

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Friday, May 16, 2025 2:28 PM

The Final Destination movie will make money but it cost WAY too much to make at $50 Million, which is what I'm seeing it cost online right now (no official numbers from Bruce).

Bruce does say this in his article:

Quote:
The popular franchise has acquired well over $263 million from domestic box office and nearly $658 million from global viewings from five previous installments dating back to 2000.

It took you 5 movies to make $263 Million in the US and $658 Million worldwide.

Granted, the 4th one appears to have been straight to DVD and the last one came out in 2011, so there's a lot of inflation to calculate in. But without calculating for inflation you just spent more than the average US box office for these movies to make this one.

TITLE / US BOX OFFICE / WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE
Final Destination / $53,302,314 / $112,036,870
Final Destination 2 / $46,896,664 / $90,396,664
Final Destination 3 / $54,098,051 / $112,798,051
Final Destination 5 / $42,587,643 / $155,011,165

Also, without inflation factored in, only one movie on that list would have made enough money to break even with a $50 Million budget.

With everyone in desperate need to bring their budgets WAY down, horror movies should not be making it a trend to race toward $100 Million production budgets. This is the second horror movie in a month now that we've seen with at least a $50 Million budget. Sinners cost $90 Million.

They'll both make money, though FD will come nowhere near as successful as Sinners was with their budget.

Most horror movies with budgets like these are going to fail.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, May 16, 2025 2:53 PM

mixed, some love it and some hate it while some say its ok

mostly positive

‘The Legend of Ochi’: When lore becomes a bore
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/04/23/arts/legend-of-ochi-willem-dafo
e/

‘The Legend of Ochi’ Review: The Great, Familiar Adventure
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/movies/the-legend-of-ochi-review.ht
ml

Movie Review: A24’s ‘Legend of Ochi’ breaks ground, but narrative lacks strength
https://timesofsandiego.com/arts/2025/05/03/legend-of-ochi-breaks-grou
nd-narrative-lacks-strength/

While the baby Ochi is something of a Grogu-Gizmo hybrid, the use of puppetry and animatronics gives it an idiosyncratic scruffiness. It feels as if you’re encountering a new species, not watching a digitized fantasy film.
https://larsenonfilm.com/the-legend-of-ochi

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Saturday, May 17, 2025 6:45 AM

Covid delays and Actors strikes and AI writer strike delays continue

‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 2’ Delayed a Year to Sept 2027, 'The Legend of Aang The Last Airbender' to Oct 2026

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/teenage-mutant-nin
ja-turtles-mutant-mayhem-2-delays-release-1236219433/

Kristen Stewart’s ‘The Chronology Of Water’ Flows To 6½-Minute Ovation After Cannes Premiere

https://deadline.com/2025/05/kristen-stewart-chronology-of-water-ovati
on-cannes-1236400801/

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Sunday, May 18, 2025 2:12 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Covid delays and Actors strikes and AI writer strike delays continue

‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 2’ Delayed a Year to Sept 2027, 'The Legend of Aang The Last Airbender' to Oct 2026

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/teenage-mutant-nin
ja-turtles-mutant-mayhem-2-delays-release-1236219433/

Kristen Stewart’s ‘The Chronology Of Water’ Flows To 6½-Minute Ovation After Cannes Premiere

https://deadline.com/2025/05/kristen-stewart-chronology-of-water-ovati
on-cannes-1236400801/

A 6.5 minute standing ovation from the piss drinkers and fart smellers in Hollywood must mean this is just completely unwatchable and possibly even toxic for human beings.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, May 19, 2025 5:48 AM

Thunderbolts still strong but the movie business aint what it used to be, Final Destination Bloodlines expected to have a big weeked

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Monday, May 19, 2025 7:29 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Thunderbolts still strong but the movie business aint what it used to be, Final Destination Bloodlines expected to have a big weeked

Made it's production budget back from the US Box office alone on opening weekend.

Easily makes money, but we already knew that it was going to despite the high budget.

Although, it wasn't a Bloomhouse or A24 joint and this may have gotten some real heavy marketing compared to what they would have gotten. Still have to give this one the 2.5x treatment because it's WB.

$125 Million to break even.

Internationally it did just a little better so we're already at $105 Million worldwide. Easy peasy.

Still though. $50 Million is a big gamble on a horror flick in 2025. I'm glad it worked out for them this time, but it might not next time.

Anybody remember 2023's The Last Voyage of the Demeter? No?

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Last-Voyage-of-the-Demeter-The#tab=s
ummary

$45 Million budget in 2023 adjusted for inflation at $47,376,700 today.

Grossed $13.6 Million in the US and bowed out with a worldwide total of $20.4 Million, with a little over $2 Million in DVD/BluRay sales since then.

Glad to see physical media making a small comeback, btw...

Demeter's budget was nearly $3 Million less than Final Destination Bloodlines', but it lost Universal somewhere in the area of $100 Million and ended up one of their rare flops in an otherwise stellar year.

Though the loss here was probably quite a bit less than that because I think Universal knew they had a big flop on their hands and didn't put any marketing budget into Demeter.

... Plus, when a movie makes that little, it ends up being the movie theaters themselves that end up eating a lot of that pain too. They'd be splitting that $20 Million roughly 50/50, so if Universal didn't dump any money into marketing, their actual losses on this were probably only around $30 Million. And with how much money Universal raked in during 2023 while just destroying everyone else that year, that $30 Million loss probably ended up becoming a wash somewhere with tax write-offs or whatever tricks their accountant teams use to maximize profits.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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