CINEMA

The Blue Beetle Failure Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Friday, October 20, 2023 00:03
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Thursday, August 17, 2023 11:39 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


WB had better relish the Barbie profits, because DC is going to continue losing them money.

The-Numbers.com home page always has a list of "Most Anticipated Movies" on a sidebar on the right side of the screen. The movies on the list now?

Disney’s Snow White
The Nun II
Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part Two
The Fall Guy
The Creator
Retribution
Dune: Part Two
Five Nights at Freddy’s
The Hill
The Equalizer 3

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Wait? Blue Beetle isn't on that list? When is Blue Beetle coming out again?

That's right. Tomorrow night.

And nobody gives a single shit about it.




Disney's Snow White remake tops the list of "Most Anticipated Movies" for all the wrong reasons. That's a ticking time bomb for Disney, and I suspect they're just going to end up releasing it on Disney+ and hope it goes away like they did with Peter Pan and Wendy. Hell... I suspect that some at Disney are contemplating never letting Snow White see the light of day like WB did with Batwoman.

But people are talking about it. Along with sure to be classics like "The Nun II". But nobody is searching for or talking about DC's Blue Beetle a day before it gets released.


With a $120 Million Production Budget, it needs $240 Million to break even with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb and $300 Million with the much more likely to be accurate 2.5x Rule of Thumb in 2023.


What have other DC movies with characters that your average moviegoer has at least heard of before done in the Box Office in the last 2 years?

Black Adam:
Budget: $200 Million
Worldwide Gross: $391,261,706
Money Lost (2.0x RoT): $8,738,294
Money Lost (2.5x RoT): $108,738,294

Shazam: Fury of the Gods:
Budget: $125 Million
Worldwide Gross: $132,192,362
Money Lost (2.0x RoT): $117,807,638
Money Lost (2.5x RoT): $180,307,638

The Flash:
Budget: $200 Million
Worldwide Gross: $268,163,138
Money Lost (2.0x RoT): $131,836,862
Money Lost (2.5x RoT): $231,836,862

Then you have Batwoman which was shelved and if it doesn't get leaked will never be seen by human eyes. That cost $90 Million.


On the last three DC movies put out and the shelved Batwoman movie, WB has lost anywhere from $348,382,794 to $570,882,794.

If you take Barbie's $1.2 Billion that it's raked in so far, subtract the $400 Million it needed to break even and further subtract a conservative $100 Million additional for theater takes, that leaves WB with roughly $700 Million in profit. That looks decidedly smaller when it needs to make up for not only the last three DC flops it put out, but the shelved Batwoman movie and the future Blue Beetle massive flop.

Without Blue Beetle added, after Barbie covers the losses from all of these films, it only leaves WB with anywhere from $350 Million to as low as $130 Million profit.

And with the 2.5x RoT looking more and more like it's the new model, after Blue Beetle's losses are realized, WB is going to be lucky if the huge Barbie win comes out as a wash after covering the losses of its last 5 DC movies.




And now they're BEGGING you to see this movie, after the dipshit director and idiot George Lopez attacked fans on Twitter earlier this year.

My, my... The times they are a changing.


I may have to put a Warner Bros 2023 Failure Thread up alongside the Disney one. At first I thought it was kind of hard to justify with WB putting out what will likely be the biggest grossing movie of 2023, but I'm going to have to dig up all of WB's movies and see how close it's come to Disney in terms of hemorrhaging money.

It won't beat Disney in the race to the bottom in 2023 for sure, but WB might not do much better than breaking even this year. Not a good look when you put out the top grossing film that's going to make around $1.3 Billion in the box office.

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 6:35 PM

WHOZIT


I thought 'Barbie' was going to do just 'OK', soooo

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 6:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
I thought 'Barbie' was going to do just 'OK', soooo


Did you miss the point of the thread?

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 10:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Blue Beetle only opens in 3,871, behind Barbie's 4,003 theaters. Uh oh.

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Friday, August 18, 2023 8:15 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Blue Beetle prediction? difficult to know

the movie studios are in caution mode again with strikes

I will kind of ignore oversea for the moment because international box office is more difficult to predict, however rule out France as not going to the cinema and a Russian market dead with sanctions, Japanese movies are usually late in the cinema and its a smaller box office.

Let's look at its contest, its sort of in a competition against Barbie and Oppenheimer that are still making money from July's box office, then you have Meg 2, because Warner Bros owns both Barbie and Blue Beetle it might be in a contest against itself, you also have kids movies and animations, Strays, The Monkey King, then soon coming Gran Turismo, The Creator, The Equalizer 3, A Haunting in Venice, Retribution, Expend4bles etc

Does the name itself sell? maybe Nobody really knows 'Blue Beetle' unlike Batman, Ironman, Harry Potter, Superman, Luke Skywalker, Mickey Mouse, Spider-Man

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

The-Numbers.com home page always has a list of "Most Anticipated Movies" on a sidebar on the right side of the screen.


The Hill an American biographical sports drama might eat away on some of its profit but The Fall Guy is moved to 2024





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Friday, August 18, 2023 10:24 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Blue Beetle prediction? difficult to know


Nah. Huge failure incoming. Shazam 2 was the sequel to a DC movie that was pretty well received and made money, yet with only a $125 Million budget it lost almost as much as The Flash did and that had a $200 Million budget.

Quote:
the movie studios are in caution mode again with strikes


Not only that, but the actors won't promote any movies either.

Quote:
I will kind of ignore oversea for the moment because international box office is more difficult to predict, however rule out France as not going to the cinema and a Russian market dead with sanctions, Japanese movies are usually late in the cinema and its a smaller box office.

Let's look at its contest, its sort of in a competition against Barbie and Oppenheimer that are still making money from July's box office, then you have Meg 2, because Warner Bros owns both Barbie and Blue Beetle it might be in a contest against itself, you also have kids movies and animations, Strays, The Monkey King, then soon coming Gran Turismo, The Creator, The Equalizer 3, A Haunting in Venice, Retribution, Expend4bles etc


Once Barbie and Oppenheimer fall off, there's not a lot of excitement over the rest of the year in the box office. Blue Beetle included.

Quote:
Does the name itself sell? maybe Nobody really knows 'Blue Beetle' unlike Batman, Ironman, Harry Potter, Superman, Luke Skywalker, Mickey Mouse, Spider-Man


Nobody knows who Blue Beetle is. They had to reach into the bottom of the barrel for a D-List character for this one. It's DC's discount Spider-Man but he's brown with a blue costume.

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

The-Numbers.com home page always has a list of "Most Anticipated Movies" on a sidebar on the right side of the screen.


The Hill an American biographical sports drama might eat away on some of its profit but The Fall Guy is moved to 2024


That's not the point of mentioning the list. Snow White isn't coming out (if it ever comes out) until 2024. I've never even heard of half of those movies on the list of "Most Anticipated Movies" but I've heard of Blue Beetle.

It's also not on The-Numbers list of Trending Movies either.

Nobody gives a shit about this movie.

Projections range from $22 to $32 Million on opening weekend. That's 18% to 27% of its production budget (which may actually be the same $125 Million that Shazam was instead of just $120 Million... We'll have to see if that's true or not).

There's some saying that Barbie will beat it and it's Barbie's 5th week in theaters.

Shazam II made $30 Million on opening weekend and finished the US Box office run with $57 Million. The Flash made $55 Million on opening weekend and finished the US Box office run with $108 Million.

I don't consider most Latinos to be woke. Unless there is an amazing unexpected turnout from Latinos to all go out and see a superhero movie about a Latino superhero that nobody ever heard of before, this one is going to make within Shazam II and The Flash range.



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Friday, August 18, 2023 10:40 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Projections range from $22 to $32 Million on opening weekend. That's 18% to 27% of its production budget


Here's other movies at the bottom of the 2023 list when it comes to worldwide opening weekend vs. production budget. I'm going to be extremely optimistic about the film and give it a 50/50 split Domestic/International even though nobody outside of America has heard of Blue Beetle before either, so I'll show any movies that grossed up to 54% of their budget first weekend.

27. Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
28. Book Club: The Next Chapter / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 50%
29. No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
30. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Th / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
31. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
32. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000
34. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
35. The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $75,000,000 / 38%
36. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
37. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
38. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
39. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
40. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
41. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
42. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant / Budget: $55,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 13%
43. Renfield / Budget: $86,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 12%




Now... Which of these movies ended up winners and which ended up losers?

Winner (That's right... Just one):

25. Elemental made 222% of its production budget of $200 Million.



Losers (and how high they ranked on the loser's list so far):

7. Shazam: FotG only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
15. Book Club: TSC made 140% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
18. No Hard Feelings made 187% of its production budget of $45 Million.
14. Dungeons & Dragon: HAT only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
16. 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million. [FINAL]
8. Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 123% of its production budget of $300 Million.
19. Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million. [FINAL]
13. The Flash only made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
9. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
6. Are You There God? IM, M made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million. [FINAL]
3. Haunted Mansion made 48% of its production budget of $158 Million.
5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 60% of its production budget of $70 Million.
10. Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
2. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant made 36% of its production budget of $55 Million. [FINAL]
1. Renfield made 31% of its production budget of $86 Million. [FINAL]



Elemental ended up pulling off a miracle after having Pixar's 2nd lowest opening weekend in history. Every other movie that made between 12% and 54% of its production budget worldwide on opening weekend failed to even win on the 2.0x Rule of Thumb.

And there is very much evidence that we're now using the 2.5x Rule of Thumb in 2023. Bounding into Comics says that Blue Beetle needs to make 300 Million to break even.

https://boundingintocomics.com/2023/08/17/box-office-analyst-predicts-
its-possible-for-barbie-to-beat-blue-beetle-at-box-office-says-blue-beetle-will-be-another-flop-for-dc/

I'm only claiming it needs to make $240 Million, and I don't see any way that will be possible.

Even if it does manage to eek out a 2.0xRoT win, it still might not have actually made a profit with 2.5xRoT being on the table. In a world where it makes a few bucks, it's not going to help WB out much when they've had to take 70% or more of their massive Barbie wins to cover their last 3 DC flops and the $90 Million Batwoman movie they shelved because it was "irredeemably woke" and "bad for the brand".

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Friday, August 18, 2023 11:25 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Blue Beetle's Thursday night Preview numbers are in.

$3,300,000

Ouch.

The Flash did $9,700,000 on preview night on June 15th.

Bruce's predictions for The Flash on Friday, June 16th:

Quote:
Warner Bros.’ big bet of the Summer arrives in theaters this weekend, and The Flash looks as though it will set the new DC Universe on its way at a reasonable pace with an opening in the region of $70 million.

...

The preview numbers point to an opening weekend that will fall short of $80 million, but Warner Bros. will be pretty happy with $70 million for a film that has had more than its fair share of negative publicity.


The Flash's actual opening weekend: $55,043,679
Reported Worldwide Opening Weekend: $128 Million. (64%) *They claimed $139 Million using the 4-day holiday trick, but it was $128 Milion for the 3 day weekend worldwide.



Shazam: Fury of the Gods did $3,400,000 on preview night on March 16th.


Bruce's predictions for Shazam: Fury of the Gods on Friday, March 17th:

Quote:
Shazam! Fury of the Gods picked up $3.4 million from preview screenings on Thursday. That’s a lot less than the $9.225 million earned by Shazam! back in 2019, and points to an opening weekend for the latest movie in the DC Extended Universe that will fall well short of the $53.5 million earned by its predecessor. In fact, it might not make it to $30 million this weekend.

...

With a small number of exceptions, super hero movies earn less than 10 times their preview earnings over opening weekend, which makes $34 million a rough upper limit for Shazam!. If it performs as well through the weekend as Birds of Prey, it’ll come in with $28.1 million. For a truly heart-stopping comparison, Shazam!’s opening weekend multiplier was 5.8. If Fury of the Gods does that, it’ll open with just $19.72 million.

Overall, something around $30 million seems likely, but there’s a decent chance it’ll miss that mark. If it does fall short of $30 million this weekend, it’ll probably also struggle to make $100 million in total, which would be a very disappointing outcome for a movie in the world’s number two super hero franchise.


Shazam II's actual opening weekend: $30,111,158
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $66 Million. (53%)


Blue Beetle probably won't break $30 Million Domestic. It's difficult to say for sure since it's a largely unknown property and we've had almost a half a year extra Superhero fatigue since Shazam II came out, but I'd say the Upper Limit for Blue Beetle Worldwide this weekend is only in the area of $60 Million.

It's a coin-flip if it beats Barbie. If it does, I suspect Barbie will beat it next weekend.





EDITED TO ADD: While researching what The Flash made here for the exact numbers, I realized I goofed and put The Flash at number 35 on the Worldwide Box Office vs. Production Budget list with only $75 Million (38%). It actually got $128 Million Worldwide, which bumps it up to 26th place with 64% of its production budget made on opening weekend.

This is probably worse news for Blue Beetle, considering how very far short The Flash fell below what it needed to break even despite making 64% of the production budget on opening. Blue Beetle will come nowhere close to 64% of $120M this weekend. That would require it to make almost $77 Million worldwide.


NOTE: Blue Beetle will be showing in 3,871 tonight and this week. Previews were in 3,400 theaters. I've never looked into the amount of theaters compared to actual theaters for the Friday release before, but I'm surprised it's that high of a number considering the amount of movies they'd have to bump out of theaters a day early to make that happen. Maybe it's normal?

So the $3.3M previews it made was in 88% of the theaters that will be showing it tonight, and it still appears to have fallen $550k short of Barbie's projected $3.85 Million for Thursday night, or 86% of Barbie's Thursday night total. It's going to get 12% more theaters for the weekend and it's going to need to keep that pace and gain 14% more to tie with Barbie.

As I stated before, I've never really paid attention deeply to previews, so I don't know for sure what that actually will translate to this weekend, but purely by a math standpoint it looks like there's a decent chance BB doesn't win over Barbie this weekend. It might be really close.


NOTE 2: The Flash previewed in 3,400 theaters as well on June 15th and pulled in $9.7 Million. It was shown in 4,234 theaters opening week.

Shazam II previewed in 3,400 theaters on March 16th and pulled in $3.4 Million. It was shown in 4,071 theaters opening week.


NOTE 3: Looking at the comparable numbers of Shazam II, it probably shouldn't have any problems beating Barbie in the Domestic office this weekend, since Barbie looks like it will probably make around $20 to $22 Million max. But I still think that by next weekend Barbie will be making more than Blue Beetle does.

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Friday, August 18, 2023 8:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce's Blue Beetle Prediction:

Quote:
Blue Beetle should top the box office chart this weekend, but it’s looking like it’ll mimic the performance of Shazam! Fury of the Gods and come in with something around $30 million on debut—another disappointment for the DC Extended Universe following The Flash’s $55-million opening and $108-million run in June and July.

Blue Beetle didn’t gain much traction with its potential audience over the past few weeks, with our model measuring audience enthusiasm at 80% of what we’d expect. Aside from the mid-pandemic release of Wonder Woman 1984, it’s also the first DC Universe film to open in fewer than 4,000 theaters, which further reduces our model’s baseline prediction.

...

While Blue Beetle will almost certainly top the chart, Barbie won’t have a huge amount of competition and could hold on better than the model currently expects. If it tops $20 million the weekend result could still be close.



Like I said, unless people are just completely done with the DC Universe, I expect Blue Beetle to take first place this weekend without much trouble. I don't think it will beat Barbie by next weekend though.

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 5:56 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


They admit the Budget to Flash was something like 300 Million meaning its box office failure was even worse than expected

Are Major film studios failing in the USA, maybe and maybe not some are foreign owned like 'Sony'

the brands like Sony do have flops but mostly avoid USA's new SJW Bolsevik politcial messages
Disney has flops and Marvel has flops, Disney own Marvel
However a new Spider-Man made money
Disney probably had huge theme park loss with Covid
Warner Bros had a hit with 'Barbie' but a lot of flops
MGM is dead mostly, it still has ownership of Bond brand but was bought by Sony
Universal Pictures... NBCUniversal they don't make as many films any more but they own the Despicable Me brand, movie rights for Mario and did make 'Oppenheimer'
Paramount Pictures might have bounced back with Top Gun Maverick and a Box office $1.496 billion

It's hard to know when the current box office run started and died I think it began with super blockbusters back in 1993, 1995, 1996 - then maybe started to die 2014, 2015 the Superhero thing over-saturated everything, Covid damaged sales and the SJW islamic Homosexual Gay Lesbian Political messages put into every big box office movie might have finally crushed it all.

Some movies can make box office money but its going to continue with failures

Small Indie movies are now Most Profitable Movies, more interesting and pull far mroe cash back Based on Return on Investment
A lot of them if smart might return to the Low Budget Comedy, Scifi or Horror Genre, Halloween, Mad Max, Young Frankenstein, El Mariachi, Rain Man, Easy Rider, Open Water, Clerks, overseas or Japanese genre like the Ringu, Eraserhead , Paranormal Activity etc

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 6:55 AM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
They admit the Budget to Flash was something like 300 Million meaning its box office failure was even worse than expected

Are Major film studios failing in the USA, maybe and maybe not some are foreign owned like 'Sony'

the brands like Sony do have flops but mostly avoid USA's new SJW Bolsevik politcial messages
Disney has flops and Marvel has flops, Disney own Marvel
However a new Spider-Man made money
Disney probably had huge theme park loss with Covid
Warner Bros had a hit with 'Barbie' but a lot of flops
MGM is dead mostly, it still has ownership of Bond brand but was bought by Sony
Universal Pictures... NBCUniversal they don't make as many films any more but they own the Despicable Me brand, movie rights for Mario and did make 'Oppenheimer'
Paramount Pictures might have bounced back with Top Gun Maverick and a Box office $1.496 billion

It's hard to know when the current box office run started and died I think it began with super blockbusters back in 1993, 1995, 1996 - then maybe started to die 2014, 2015 the Superhero thing over-saturated everything, Covid damaged sales and the SJW islamic Homosexual Gay Lesbian Political messages put into every big box office movie might have finally crushed it all.

Some movies can make box office money but its going to continue with failures

Small Indie movies are now Most Profitable Movies, more interesting and pull far mroe cash back Based on Return on Investment
A lot of them if smart might return to the Low Budget Comedy, Scifi or Horror Genre, Halloween, Mad Max, Young Frankenstein, El Mariachi, Rain Man, Easy Rider, Open Water, Clerks, overseas or Japanese genre like the Ringu, Eraserhead , Paranormal Activity etc


The simple answer is...the fan base is gone. Why should I spent my hard earned $ to see the same story BUT, the hero is just wearing a different suit. 'The Blue Cockroach' will not save the DCU or the movie industry, it's just the same old thing, only blue.

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 9:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
They admit the Budget to Flash was something like 300 Million meaning its box office failure was even worse than expected


Do you have a link to "they"? If it turns out The Flash cost $100 Million more than was originally stated, I've got a whole lot of lists to update, and that also means that going into Blue Beetle, Barbie has now only made enough money to give Warner Bros. a surplus of $150 Million with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb to as low as -$120 Million deficit after covering for the last 3 flops and the shelved Batwoman movie.

There's enough gas left in Barbie's tank to cover another $120 Million worth of possible Flash losses, but probably not enough to cover that AND Blue Beetle.

Quote:
It's hard to know when the current box office run started and died I think it began with super blockbusters back in 1993, 1995, 1996 - then maybe started to die 2014, 2015 the Superhero thing over-saturated everything, Covid damaged sales and the SJW islamic Homosexual Gay Lesbian Political messages put into every big box office movie might have finally crushed it all.


The 90's sounds like a good start. Probably around the time of Terminator 2. I don't think it actually started dying until after Avengers: Endgame came out though. Though it's true that Covid happened shortly after, I don't blame it on Covid... at least not directly.

The "Message" had been around since at least 2014-2015, but outside of just a small amount of us, it was being consumed almost unnoticed by everyday folk. I think parents being home with their kids for all that time and catching wind of what their "teachers" were teaching them opened up a lot of eyes about a lot of things. And once your eyes are opened you look around and see it everywhere and wonder how you never noticed it before.

Quote:
Small Indie movies are now Most Profitable Movies, more interesting and pull far mroe cash back Based on Return on Investment
A lot of them if smart might return to the Low Budget Comedy, Scifi or Horror Genre, Halloween, Mad Max, Young Frankenstein, El Mariachi, Rain Man, Easy Rider, Open Water, Clerks, overseas or Japanese genre like the Ringu, Eraserhead , Paranormal Activity etc


That's what I've been saying for a long time now. I finally got around to making lists that actually prove this is undoubtedly the case, and once 2023 is over and a month or two into 2024 when all the movies released in 2023 are out of the theaters I'm going to be able to present a lot of data that nobody really has ever considered before.

It's easy for a guy like MatPat to come out with his Film Theory video last week about Disney dying, all the way in Mid-August of 2023 when it was safe to do it. Nobody can deny that's a fact anymore. He's not getting hated on for that video. He doesn't even have to worry about YouTube de-monetizing him for it. He's always been one of the semi-charmed channels that didn't get negatively impacted by the numerous YouTube ad-pocalypse events over the years and hardly has to do any of his own advertising with his large viewer base.

But you saw how much pushback Second used to give me here about it and all the insults when I'd constantly point out the dark path that Disney was headed down. Clownfish TV has said the same thing about MatPat's video. They used to work for Disney and have been chronicling the fall of the company for years now and have been called all the regular names for it. "Alt-Right", "Extremists", "Nazis", etc.



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 10:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
The simple answer is...the fan base is gone. Why should I spent my hard earned $ to see the same story BUT, the hero is just wearing a different suit. 'The Blue Cockroach' will not save the DCU or the movie industry, it's just the same old thing, only blue.


There's two parts to that answer, really...

The Normies are experiencing the same Superhero burnout that everybody experienced at some point with Westerns and with Musicals before that. After a couple of them are successful, too many of them get made leading to oversaturation and the quality just keeps falling down.

And they've destroyed the built-in fan base by not respecting the fans or the original work the entire time, so once the Normies turn away from it and move on to the next big thing, there's going to be no one left to care anymore.





End Game wasn't something you rush to. That's a slow burn. That's an event they could have teased for so much longer than they did. Not every movie had to be about a world-destroying event, but with those budgets they're forced to always make the next one seem even more important than the last.

Secret Invasion? That could have been the best story that Marvel Studios ever filmed instead of the lowest rated Marvel property ever released.

I'm glad that the Normies are finally rejecting the garbage-tier stories from garbage-tier writers and directors, acted mostly by garbage-tier actors.

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 5:41 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
The simple answer is...the fan base is gone. Why should I spent my hard earned $ to see the same story BUT, the hero is just wearing a different suit. 'The Blue Cockroach' will not save the DCU or the movie industry, it's just the same old thing, only blue.


There's two parts to that answer, really...

The Normies are experiencing the same Superhero burnout that everybody experienced at some point with Westerns and with Musicals before that. After a couple of them are successful, too many of them get made leading to oversaturation and the quality just keeps falling down.

And they've destroyed the built-in fan base by not respecting the fans or the original work the entire time, so once the Normies turn away from it and move on to the next big thing, there's going to be no one left to care anymore.





End Game wasn't something you rush to. That's a slow burn. That's an event they could have teased for so much longer than they did. Not every movie had to be about a world-destroying event, but with those budgets they're forced to always make the next one seem even more important than the last.

Secret Invasion? That could have been the best story that Marvel Studios ever filmed instead of the lowest rated Marvel property ever released.

I'm glad that the Normies are finally rejecting the garbage-tier stories from garbage-tier writers and directors, acted mostly by garbage-tier actors.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.


OMG you're with the WGA!

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Saturday, August 19, 2023 8:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yes. You've figured me out. I don't know what you pay your spies, but they all deserve a raise.

I am from the Women's Golf Association.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 1:44 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You're going to find a LOT of puff pieces about this one right now. OH... THE COPE!

It's THE superhero movie that LATINOS NEED TO SEE!!!!

Get fucked, morons. If there's one demographic that doesn't fall for any of the woke shit out there it's the American Hispanics.



Here's the real story, from Screen Rant:

Quote:
Blue Beetle's box office performance falls below expectations, earning an estimated $25-27 million in its opening weekend, lower than the anticipated $30 million.

Despite defeating Barbie at the box office, Blue Beetle's earnings are not impressive compared to the domination of the Barbie movie, which has already secured over $1 billion.

Blue Beetle is expected to perform worse than Shazam: Fury of the Gods, which earned approximately $30.1 million.



Remember... That $10 Million that WB projected for Friday night includes the $3.3 Million that it got on Thursday night previews, so it only actually got a projected $6.7 Million on Friday.

$8 to $8.5 Million for both Saturday and Sunday sounds about right.

If the international audience doesn't come out for this one, it's over before it even began.


Screen Rant also says this;

Quote:
Unfortunately, Blue Beetle was set up for failure. With James Gunn and Peter Safran preparing to reset the DC universe, Blue Beetle was left in a precarious position. Audiences came to the movie already aware that the DCU will be completely upended with Superman: Legacy, leaving little draw to watch a film set in a universe that will no longer be relevant. The Blue Beetle will be the first DCU character to appear in the new universe, but he lacks the draw that other well-known heroes may have, and many in the audience may not know about his relevance.


Well... Nobody knows for sure if this was the LAST movie in the old DCU or the FIRST movie in the new DCU. I don't believe that James Gunn or Peter Safran even knew that. And they certainly weren't going to tell you it was the last movie of the old DCU for that very reason if they did know. This movie began production before they even decided they were going to reboot the franchise, and I think they were going to just see how this one did before they made any decisions. There was no reason not to do that since this movie is completely isolated from any of the others.

As far as the audience factoring any of this into their decision to see Blue Beetle? Nah. If you asked everybody if they even knew Blue Beetle was a thing, half the people would ask you what Blue Beetle was. They don't even know this movie exists. Most of the rest of them don't care at at all.

Hell... I bet if you asked everybody if they knew that the DCU was getting rebooted, half of the people wouldn't have even known that was happening until you presented them with the question.

On The-Numbers, Blue Beetle never showed up on the "Most Anticipated Movies" list that includes Snow White and several other movies that aren't even coming out until 2024 and a bunch of flicks I've never even heard of before. It finally made the "Trending Movies" list today, but I would assume half of those clicks were people just finding out that this movie was even a thing when they saw it on the box office list today.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 10:05 AM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yes. You've figured me out. I don't know what you pay your spies, but they all deserve a raise.

I am from the Women's Golf Association.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.


You write very well

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 10:12 AM

WHOZIT


'Blue Bug' will beat 'Barbie' this weekend...barely, it'll make around $25 mill. 'Indy 5' made $120,000 on Friday and is out of the top ten

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 10:16 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yes. You've figured me out. I don't know what you pay your spies, but they all deserve a raise.

I am from the Women's Golf Association.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.


You write very well


Thank you.

And I've never been on strike a day in my life. I don't even get paid.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 10:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Remember... That $10 Million that WB projected for Friday night includes the $3.3 Million that it got on Thursday night previews, so it only actually got a projected $6.7 Million on Friday.


Holy moley!

Even the "news" publications seem to be finding their integrity in the back-half of 2023. Maybe it's those fears of computer programs coming to take their jobs.

From Variety this morning:

Quote:
Debuting in 3,871 locations, the Ángel Manuel Soto-directed “Blue Beetle” earned $10 million on its opening day, a figure that includes $3.3 million from previews. It’s not a dazzling figure for the superhero entry, which had forecast a touchdown between $25 million and $33 million heading into the weekend. The film’s debut looks to fall behind that of this year’s earlier DC entry “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” which debuted to $30.1 million before collapsing for a $57.6 million finish.


I've never once seen a review site admit to this before. It wasn't until JSF figured this out and pointed it out to me that I knew this was how Thursday Previews and Friday Box Office worked. Once he pointed it out to me it was totally obvious this was the case even though I'd never seen any confirmation in print at The-Numbers or anywhere else about it. I'd never even seen any of the YouTuber's who've made it their full-time jobs to hate on Hollywood ever bring it up.

Only 1 month ago they never would have said this. It was an easy way to bump up movies they wanted to see succeed on their first night, and they could just ignore it with movies they didn't want to see succeed.

Now the secret is out. Look for your favorite Anti-Hollywood YouTuber's to start bringing that up when they celebrate the fall of another woke flick.



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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 20, 2023 2:57 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


I never heard of Blue Beetle, but it is comic book series you can read for free at https://getcomics.org/?s=Blue+Beetle



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, August 21, 2023 11:16 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
'Blue Bug' will beat 'Barbie' this weekend...barely, it'll make around $25 mill. 'Indy 5' made $120,000 on Friday and is out of the top ten


I was hesitant to come straight out and say the $25 Million figure. I'd read articles that said this was the upper limit for the movie, and although I knew this would end up being a flop for WB by the end I thought putting it down to only $25 Million was too bold a prediction.

Looks like you were right though...

Studio projections for Blue Beetle's Opening Weekend are $25,400,000.

I suspect the actual numbers will be as high as $28 Million by the time we get them on Monday afternoon though. Just like I didn't want to be embarrassed by predicting $25 and it coming up with $30 to $32 Million, the studios don't like to project high and get embarrassed when it comes up $5 or $6 Million short. They tend to care a lot less 4 or 5 weeks later when all eyes aren't on the film anymore, but usually the first 3 weeks at least they are pretty conservative with their projections.

With an opening weekend like this, unless it pulls off some sort of miracle like Elemental did, this flick is doomed.



If you want a laugh, Google "Blue Beetle" and under "Tools" put it at "last hour" or "last 24 hours" and just read the headlines. So much cope!

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Monday, August 21, 2023 11:44 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK




If projections hold all the way down the line, the failure of Blue Beetle might mean the end of a 19 weekend run in the Domestic Box office of making over $100M.



Looks like Bruce has international numbers for Blue Beetle and it did even worse overseas with just $18 Million.

I said it wasn't going to get more than $60 Million worldwide, which was about $5 Million less than Shazam II. If the projections aren't off by a whole lot, it won't even break $50 Million with just $43 Million Worldwide projected.


Where would that put us on our lists.......?




LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

35. Blue Beetle / Budget: $120,000,000 / WWO: $43,000,000 / 36%

(Between Plane at 34 and 65 at 35).



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

LOSERS:
2. Blue Beetle made 36% of its production budget of $120 Million.

(Between Renfield at 1 and Guy Ritchie's The Covenant at 3.)



LIST 3: TOTAL STUDIO PROFITS AFTER MOVIE EXITS BOX OFFICE (BASED OFF 2X RULE OF THUMB):

Way to early to tell on this one. It will lose money, but the question is how much money?

Anywhere from $100 Million to $200 Million would be my guess at this point.




LIST 4: DAYS IT TOOK FOR THE FILM TO BREAK EVEN (FOR 2.0X RULE OF THUMB):



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Monday, August 21, 2023 4:13 PM

WHOZIT


I will not be surprised if 'Barbie' retakes the #1 spot soon. If you go to YOUTUBE some of the nerds (Who hate Woke crap) are saying 'The Blue Booger' is not bad, not great, but not bad.

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Monday, August 21, 2023 11:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
I will not be surprised if 'Barbie' retakes the #1 spot soon. If you go to YOUTUBE some of the nerds (Who hate Woke crap) are saying 'The Blue Booger' is not bad, not great, but not bad.


I predicted that if Blue Beetle won the weekend that it wouldn't win next weekend.

We'll have to see if we were right. With just 123 bucks shy of $4 Million between the two of them this weekend, I think our chances of being right are much more than a coin flip.

WB must be super disappointed right now. They projected $25 Million for the weekend and it only made $30k more than that. I honestly thought it was going to come in somewhere around $28 Million after that projection. They also projected $18 Million overseas and it only came in $600k higher.

$43,630,225 for Opening weekend on a $120 Million Production Budget is a bonifide disaster for Warner Bros.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 11:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
I will not be surprised if 'Barbie' retakes the #1 spot soon. If you go to YOUTUBE some of the nerds (Who hate Woke crap) are saying 'The Blue Booger' is not bad, not great, but not bad.


I predicted that if Blue Beetle won the weekend that it wouldn't win next weekend.

We'll have to see if we were right. With just 123 bucks shy of $4 Million between the two of them this weekend, I think our chances of being right are much more than a coin flip.


Well... That didn't take long, did it?

Barbie beats Blue Beetle by $466,703 on Day 4.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Tuesday, August 22, 2023 11:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:


If projections hold all the way down the line, the failure of Blue Beetle might mean the end of a 19 weekend run in the Domestic Box office of making over $100M.


And with the dual underperformance of Strays on top of Blue Beetle's disappointment, that's exactly what happened.

19 week streak of $100 Million Plus weekends ended with only $96,865,309.



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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 6:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Blu Booger got beat by a doll on 4th and 5th day in release.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023 6:40 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:


If projections hold all the way down the line, the failure of Blue Beetle might mean the end of a 19 weekend run in the Domestic Box office of making over $100M.
And with the dual underperformance of Strays on top of Blue Beetle's disappointment, that's exactly what happened.

19 week streak of $100 Million Plus weekends ended with only $96,865,309.

--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
The weekend had every film but Barbie, Oppy, SoF earn less than predictions. Talk To Me has projections which are higher than prediction.



Blu Booger can be proud that it had larger Box Office first weekend than Sound Of Freedom did.

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Thursday, August 24, 2023 12:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:


If projections hold all the way down the line, the failure of Blue Beetle might mean the end of a 19 weekend run in the Domestic Box office of making over $100M.
And with the dual underperformance of Strays on top of Blue Beetle's disappointment, that's exactly what happened.

19 week streak of $100 Million Plus weekends ended with only $96,865,309.

--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
The weekend had every film but Barbie, Oppy, SoF earn less than predictions. Talk To Me has projections which are higher than prediction.


Yeah... but I don't blame unheard of low budget movies or movies that are at the end of their box office run.

The weekend only fell $3 Million short of a 20 week streak of $100 Million in the theaters. Either one of them could have done that. Both of them combined should have done that.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, August 24, 2023 8:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Blu Booger has been beaten by a doll domestically since it was released.

From 17 Aug to 22 Aug Booger made $30.412M, Barbie Made $30.9M
From 18 Aug to 22 Aug Booger made $27.112M, Barbie made $27.08M

From 17 Aug to 23 Aug Booger made $32.192M
From 18 Aug to 23 Aug Booger made $28.992M

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Thursday, August 24, 2023 10:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Blu Booger has been beaten by a doll domestically since it was released.

From 17 Aug to 22 Aug Booger made $30.412M, Barbie Made $30.9M
From 18 Aug to 22 Aug Booger made $27.112M, Barbie made $27.08M

From 17 Aug to 23 Aug Booger made $32.192M
From 18 Aug to 23 Aug Booger made $28.992M


Every superhero movie that has and will come out this year will be beaten by a doll.

Every movie that came out and will come out in 2023 will be beaten by a doll.

There are much more impressive losses for the Blue Beetle than pointing out that the number 1 Box Office winner for both the Domestic and the International market in 2023 beat it.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 27, 2023 12:19 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Blue Beetle makes only $82 Million worldwide in first 10 days.

After 10 days, The Flash had already made $87 Million in the US alone. And where Blue Beetle has a 56% Domestic vs. 44% International take, The Flash ended its run with a 40% Domestic vs 60% International take, so it's likely The Flash had already made over $200 Million of its $268 Million total by day 10.

After 10 Days, Shazam II came just $400k shy of where Blue Beetle stands Domestically right now. The only difference is that Shazam II has the numbers flipped and ended with a 44% Domestic vs. 56% International take.


Unless the international numbers fall off a cliff immediately, I'm going to guess that Blue Beetle is going to do slightly better than Shazam II did, just because there is little new competition coming out with summer winding down and that will make the Studio's decision not to yank a "BIPOC" superhero flick out of theaters when it should a lot easier to justify.

Expect Blue Beetle to post a sub $1 Million day or two this upcoming week.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 27, 2023 2:13 PM

WHOZIT


'Indy 5' is now in 20th place as of this writing, just putting that out there.

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Sunday, August 27, 2023 3:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
'Indy 5' is now in 20th place as of this writing, just putting that out there.



Indy 5?

There were only 3 Indiana Jones movies.



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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, August 27, 2023 4:47 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
'Indy 5' is now in 20th place as of this writing, just putting that out there.



Indy 5?

There were only 3 Indiana Jones movies.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.


Many people believe there were only 6 Star Wars movies.

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Sunday, August 27, 2023 6:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
'Indy 5' is now in 20th place as of this writing, just putting that out there.



Indy 5?

There were only 3 Indiana Jones movies.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.


Many people believe there were only 6 Star Wars movies.


Those people are wrong though...




There were only 3 Star Wars movies.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Tuesday, August 29, 2023 5:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Blue Beetle makes only $82 Million worldwide in first 10 days.

After 10 days, The Flash had already made $87 Million in the US alone. And where Blue Beetle has a 56% Domestic vs. 44% International take, The Flash ended its run with a 40% Domestic vs 60% International take, so it's likely The Flash had already made over $200 Million of its $268 Million total by day 10.

After 10 Days, Shazam II came just $400k shy of where Blue Beetle stands Domestically right now. The only difference is that Shazam II has the numbers flipped and ended with a 44% Domestic vs. 56% International take.


Unless the international numbers fall off a cliff immediately, I'm going to guess that Blue Beetle is going to do slightly better than Shazam II did, just because there is little new competition coming out with summer winding down and that will make the Studio's decision not to yank a "BIPOC" superhero flick out of theaters when it should a lot easier to justify.

Expect Blue Beetle to post a sub $1 Million day or two this upcoming week.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.


Did I say sub-$1 Million a day or two?

Try 3.

It couldn't even get a Million on Monday.

It should get $1 Million today with Cheap Seat Tuesday almost always outperforming the rest of the week, but don't expect a Million on Wednesday or Thursday.



I saw an article yesterday claiming that they still think Blue Beetle is going to make $120-$140 Million.

I highly doubt that now.

BB's still nearly $38 Million away from $120 Million. This weekend it pulls in $5-$6 Million tops. Next week it pulls in $5 Million in 7 days. It's doing even worse internationally, so in two weeks it should still be about $20 Million short of the low end of that prediction with no gas left in the tank.

My new prediction is that Blue Beetle doesn't even come close to beating Shazam II's pathetic $132,192,362 Worldwide Box Office.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Sunday, September 3, 2023 3:53 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Getting a boost from Labor Day Weekend 2023?

It seems to have staying power, I'm not sure you're wrong but

Seems to be doing better than Black Adam, The Flash and new 'Shazam! Fury of the Gods.'

56 million

Overseas Worldwide, it's passed the $95 million mark

I will quote your 'rule' from another thread

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
probably is actually a loser with the 2.5x Rule of Thumb.



Budget $100+ million

Can it get another 100 Million, now it is in contest with another film The Equalizer 3 a horror movie Birth/Rebirth and Gran Turismo Starts Strong, Columbia Pictures and Sony


Domestic Box Office $30,630,000
Worldwide Box Office $80,930,000 +
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Gran-Turismo-Based-on-a-True-Story-(
2023)#tab=summary

$30,630,000
Worldwide
$80,930,000
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4495098/

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Sunday, September 3, 2023 7:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Getting a boost from Labor Day Weekend 2023?

It seems to have staying power, I'm not sure you're wrong but

Seems to be doing better than Black Adam, The Flash and new 'Shazam! Fury of the Gods.'


Not really...

Blue Beetle's 3rd weekend (PROJECTED):
Friday: $1,550,000
Saturday: $2,720,000
Sunday: $3,000,000
TOTAL: $7,270,000

Shazam II's 3rd weekend:
Friday: $1,204,548
Saturday: $2,098,281
Sunday: $1,302,107
TOTAL: $4,604,936 ($2,665,064 less than Blue Beetle)

Black Adam's 3rd weekend:
Friday: $4,704,648
Saturday: $8,296,544
Sunday: $5,270,433
TOTAL: $18,271,625 ($11,001,625 more than Blue Beetle)

And yes... It is being helped out by the holiday weekend. Sunday takes are almost always lower than Saturday's take except for holiday weekends. It would have grossed only about $1 to $1.3 Million more than Shazam II did on Weekend 3 if it weren't for that. (Or about half as much less than it beat Shazam II by in the 3rd weekend)

Blue Beetle also benefited from the first week being out when Summer Break was still going on as well, so it got an extra $4 Million or so on Monday-Thursday (The 21st-24th) than Shazam II did on its first week during the middle of March.

If you look at both of their 2nd weeks in theaters, they were much closer together with both of them having 3 Sub-$1 Million days, and Blue Beetle making only about $800k more than Shazam II did on those 4 days.

Quote:
56 million

Overseas Worldwide, it's passed the $95 million mark


It's got nearly $102 Million worldwide right now, and that's without any projections added for Monday yet.

So it's almost made as much as Shazam II did in the US right now, but unlike Shazam II, that had a 44% Domestic vs 56% International split, it's got a 56% Domestic vs 44% International split and it's doing much poorer overseas. (Which, BTW, remains completely unchanged since the first time I observed this split and posted about it in this thread on August 27th).

And Black Adam, which did better just with Domestic Box Office numbers than both of these flicks will end up pulling in worldwide at $168,152,111 out of its $391,261,706 total, had a 43% Domestic vs 57% International box office split.

What Black Adam had going against it was its monstrous $200 Million budget. And because of that it still fell nearly $9 Million short of breaking even with 2.0Rot and $109 Million short of breaking even with 2.5RoT.


Quote:
I will quote your 'rule' from another thread

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
probably is actually a loser with the 2.5x Rule of Thumb.



That's not quoting my rule. That's quoting my observation that in 2023 we're likely to be on the 2.5x Rule of Thumb now rather than the 2.0x Rule of Thumb.

Quote:
Budget $100+ million


The Budget was $120 Million.

Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Blue-Beetle#tab=summary

Also IMDB: https://m.imdb.com/news/ni64198444/?ref_=nws_nwr_li

This $104 Million is a nonsense number they fed Deadline on August 18th. It's one thing for Warner Bros. to come out and admit after Barbie was a huge hit that the budget was actually $145 Million rather than the $100 Million it initially claimed, but you don't get to lie and make your budget $18 Million smaller than you told respected media news outlets 3 weeks into your run when your movie is flopping.


Quote:
Can it get another 100 Million, now it is in contest with another film The Equalizer 3 a horror movie Birth/Rebirth and Gran Turismo Starts Strong, Columbia Pictures and Sony


With the old 2.0x Rule of Thumb, Blue Beetle needs $240 Million to break even. That's another $138 Million it needs.

No. It cannot do this. It should consider itself EXTREMELY lucky if it makes another $38 Million.

With the 2.5x Rule of Thumb, Blue Beetle needs $300 Million to break even. That's another $198 Million it needs.

It certainly could never do this.


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Sunday, September 3, 2023 7:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh... and here's a little insight into how performance of movies at the box office works. Especially those on a downward trajectory out of the gates like all three of these DC flicks were.

If we're being optimistic, you're going to see a 40%-45% drop in worldwide box office per week from here on out. If we're being pragmatic, it's 50%.

Let's give it the benefit of the doubt and call it 40%.

It made roughly $19 Million worldwide in the last 7 days. (That number is high by probably $500k or so, but we'll call it $19 Million).

Week 4 it makes $11,400,000 worldwide.
Week 5 it makes $6,840,000 worldwide.
Week 6 it makes $4,104,000 worldwide.
Week 7 it makes $2,462,400 worldwide.
Week 8 it makes $1,477,440 worldwide.
Week 9 it makes $886,464 worldwide.
Week 10 it makes $531,878 worldwide.
Week 11 it makes $319,127 worldwide.
Week 12 it makes $191,476 worldwide.
Week 13 it makes $114,885 worldwide.
Week 14 it makes $68,931 worldwide.
Week 15 it makes $41,358 worldwide.

And that's assuming it gets that many weeks. Black Adam got 12 weeks. The Flash got 9 weeks. Shazam II only got 7 weeks.

Let's say it gets 12 weeks with its current worldwide gross at $101,874,000 3 weekends into the run.

After 4 weeks it's got $113,274,000 worldwide.

After 5 weeks it's got $120,114,000.

After 6 weeks it's got $124,218,000.

After 7 weeks it's got $126,680,400.

After 8 weeks it's got $128,157,840.

After 9 weeks it's got $129,044,304

After 10 weeks it's got $129,576,182

After 11 weeks it's got $129,895,309

After 12 weeks it's got $130,086,785.



Shazam's worldwide take after only 7 weeks? $132,192,362

Shazam II's drops started out bad, but then they fell off a fucking cliff after the 3rd weekend, and that's the real anomaly.

It's weekly Domestic Box Office drops were 66%, 50%, 65%, 83%, 80% and 56%.

Black Adam's drops were as follows: 58%, 33%, 58%, 29%, 45%, 48%, 17%, 61%, 79%, 22%, 69%.


If Blue Beetle manages to only lose 40% of its box office week after week from here on out (which would be considered AMAZING Barbie-like results given its performance so far), it doesn't even make more than Shazam's $132 Million Worldwide even if it was given the 12 weeks that Black Adam got before it was yanked.






So yeah... if you're wondering why so much emphasis is put on the Opening Weekend Box Office as well as the 2nd Weekend drop, well this is why.

Barbie is the number one movie in the world in 2023, but its Domestic box office dropoff per week has been as follows: 43%, 42%, 38%, 40%, 34%.

Barbie's opening weekend was also $356 Million worldwide vs. Blue Beetles' $43.4 Million, and Blue Beetles 2nd week Domestic dropoff was 53%. This is why even though Barbie has been in the theaters 4 full weeks longer than Blue Beetle, Barbie is still crushing BB every single day since Day 4, despite already seeing 5 weekly drops of 34% to 43% when BB has only had one recorded weekly drop of 53%.

And even though Blue Beetle's projected loss from Weekend 2 to Weekend 3 is only 40%, the weekly drop will be more than this, and next week will drop even harder because it only got propped up by the Holiday. It would have grossed $6 Million over the weekend instead of $7.3 Million, and it would have been another 51% drop like last weekend was, without the holiday.

It will get more money than it would have otherwise on Monday as well (possibly as much as it makes on Cheap Seat Tuesday even), but I expect Wednesday and Thursday's numbers for Blue Beetle to be no more than $370k and $320k. We're looking somewhere in the area of $1.5 Million between Monday and Thursday, which would be a 45% drop for the week. If it somehow managed $2 Million over the next 4 days because of the holiday, that would be a 42% drop.

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Tuesday, September 5, 2023 2:03 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


LOL... Wow did Blue Beetle get helped by the Holiday weekend. New projections for the entire weekend came in along with Monday's projections. Here's what they looked like yesterday:

Blue Beetle's 3rd weekend (PROJECTED):
Friday: $1,550,000
Saturday: $2,720,000
Sunday: $3,000,000
TOTAL: $7,270,000

And here's what they look like now...

Blue Beetle's 3rd weekend (PROJECTED):
Friday: $1,555,000 (+$5k)
Saturday: $2,735,000 (+$15k)
Sunday: $2,825,000 (-$175k)
WEEKEND TOTAL: $7,115,000 (-$155k)
Monday: $2,120,000

It only pulled in $684k on Thursday and $1.5 Million on Friday, so on a normal Monday it should have only pulled in about $400 to $420k max.

Yeah... when I said that it would probably do better than Cheap Seat Tuesday on the holiday that was an understatement, if those projections are right.

It's going to get about $700-$800k on Tuesday, and both Thursday and Friday will be somewhere in the $300-$400k range.

I still don't think it will change my numbers I predicted in the future too much, other than giving it a temporary boost, and possibly a little bit of a higher start to the drops now that it should only drop 40% from last week with that high Monday number. (It might even bump the Domestic/International percentage up from 56%/44% to 57%/44%.)

That may be enough to save some theaters it would have lost next week too.

So now I'm thinking that it just might beat Shazam II. It will be close now. Not that this is anything to celebrate since it will still lose around $100 to $160 Million before it's out of theaters.


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Tuesday, September 5, 2023 3:43 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Hmmmmmmm....

It looks as though it's still yet to come out in Australia and New Zealand on the 14th.

I've heard Twitter/Reddit rumors that it's also releasing in China on the 14th as well, although I haven't seen any reputable movie site state this and it's not on the list of countries showing it on The-Numbers.com.


With Australia/NZ's help alone, it's already beat Shazam II. Probably by $3-$10 Million.

Even if it gets released in China it's still a loser at the Box Office, but not as big a loser as it would have been. It all depends on how burnt out China is on superhero movies. Black Adam didn't get released in China, and Shazam II made only $6 Million there.

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Tuesday, September 5, 2023 11:40 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It appears that all speculation needs to just be thrown out the window right now.

https://screenrant.com/blue-beetle-streaming-release-date-information/

It's confirmed to get a release in Australia and New Zealand on the 14th, and a release in China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea on the same day are just rumors.

Also a rumor is that it will be released for online digital purchase in "mid-September" by Screen Rant, with an actual date of September 19th "confirmed" by some shady-looking sites that I believe are pulling that date right out of their asses.

These are VERY hard numbers to research because it looks like these online outfits use the same terminology somewhat interchangeably for "available for online PURCHASE" and available to stream on a platform. I knew that The Flash wasn't available for streaming until August 25th, which was 70 days after its theatrical release, but it appears that it was available for online purchase after only 32 days.

So... if true, the ability to purchase online only 5 days after entering at least 3 more international markets is probably not going to be good news for Blue Beetle. I don't have a lot of experience tracking this behavior though. It's hard to say by looking at numbers for The Flash and determining the impact. After 32 days of release, the largest weekend to weekend drops had already occurred for The Flash and the damage had already been largely done. It only made $750k the following weekend, but it had already made just $2.2 Million the weekend before (weekend 4).

And right around $3 Million on Weekend 4 for Blue Beetle seems to be a pretty safe bet.

Who knows?

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Tuesday, September 5, 2023 5:56 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Blue Beetle (2023-) #1

https://readcomicsonline.ru/comic/blue-beetle-2023/1/1


https://getcomics.org/dc/blue-beetle-1-2023/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, September 6, 2023 12:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


And so it begins...

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah... when I said that it would probably do better than Cheap Seat Tuesday on the holiday that was an understatement, if those projections are right.

It's going to get about $700-$800k on Tuesday, and both Thursday and Friday will be somewhere in the $300-$400k range.


Actual BO for Cheap Seat Tuesday: $572,109.

With summer and the Holiday weekend behind it, the fall will be quick.

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Thursday, September 7, 2023 11:46 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
And so it begins...

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah... when I said that it would probably do better than Cheap Seat Tuesday on the holiday that was an understatement, if those projections are right.

It's going to get about $700-$800k on Tuesday, and both Thursday and Friday will be somewhere in the $300-$400k range.


Actual BO for Cheap Seat Tuesday: $572,109.

With summer and the Holiday weekend behind it, the fall will be quick.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.


Wednesday's Projection: $345,000.

Yup.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (September 3rd):
If we're being optimistic, you're going to see a 40%-45% drop in worldwide box office per week from here on out. If we're being pragmatic, it's 50%.

Let's give it the benefit of the doubt and call it 40%.

It made roughly $19 Million worldwide in the last 7 days. (That number is high by probably $500k or so, but we'll call it $19 Million).

Week 4 it makes $11,400,000 worldwide.
Week 5 it makes $6,840,000 worldwide.

...

And that's assuming it gets that many weeks. Black Adam got 12 weeks. The Flash got 9 weeks. Shazam II only got 7 weeks.

Let's say it gets 12 weeks with its current worldwide gross at $101,874,000 3 weekends into the run.

After 4 weeks it's got $113,274,000 worldwide.

After 5 weeks it's got $120,114,000.

...



Even though we've seen a 55% drop on Tuesday and a 56% drop on Wednesday from the previous week, if we assume only a 40% drop for the rest of the week through Sunday, that will be a Domestic total of $7,336,938, which includes the $2,312,258 it got on Labor Day Monday which was an increase of 167% from the Monday before it.

Now trying to figure out international numbers on the daily is difficult because of how they're tracked, but I was able to manage to figure out that it made (roughly) $18 Million internationally on both its 1st weekend, and then a repeat $18 for its entire second week.

How did I figure this out?

Well... Opening weekend numbers are easy to come by in the media for big budget movies.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/conormurray/2023/08/21/blue-beetle-posts-
second-lowest-dc-extended-universe-opening-weekend-heres-the-full-ranking/?sh=51c27c8f3160

Quote:
Blue Beetle has also grossed $18 million at the international box office so far, bringing its global total to $43.4 million.


But since I've been tracking progress here in this thread, I was able to dig up my own post from Sunday, August 27th:

Quote:
Blue Beetle makes only $82 Million worldwide in first 10 days.


If you look at Bruce's charts, Blue Beetle had just shy of $46 Million on Day 10 (Sunday). So we had another $18 Million for 7 days after the first $18 Million for 3 days internationally, which adds up to $82 Million. (And we can easily infer that the new international numbers had been posted by Bruce by afternoon on Sunday the 27th because that's when I said the worldwide total for 10 days was $82 Million and that $18 Million didn't exist the week before).


As of Sunday, September 3rd, Blue Beetle had $56,418,800 Domestically, and internationally it's currently at $45,900,000. $46-$18-$18 = $10 Million added for the next 7 days internationally.

$10 Million from $18 Million is a 45% drop from the previous week.

To be conservative, let's assume another 45% drop this week for $5.5 Million to be posted on Sunday, September 10th.


With the $7,336,938 Domestic assuming only a 40% drop every day from Thursday to Sunday, that will total $12,836,938 worldwide once Sunday's numbers are reported.

That's $1,436,938 more than I predicted on September 3rd that Blue Beetle would add to its total over the next 7 days, but that also includes a Holiday Monday where it got $2,312,258 which was +167% from the prior Monday. Had it not been a holiday and got a 40% drop instead, it would have only grossed $518,838. $2,312,258 - $518,838 = $1,793,420.

And since both Tuesday and Wednesday had 55% and 56% drops, giving the benefit of the doubt for Monday at only 40% is a gift to Blue Beetle. It would have made $1,793,420 less this week if it lost 40% on Monday, and it would have made $1,923,130 less this week with the same 55%+ losses it's gotten so far the rest of this week.

Blue Beetle can still make $5.85 Million internationally with the numbers that will be reported outside of the US on Sunday and my prediction that didn't take into account holiday numbers would still be correct, but with an asterisk for the Holiday.

In fact, it cold probably pull in $5.85 Million internationally and my numbers might still be correct without even bothering to take that holiday caveat into account. Because not only are we likely seeing much higher than 40% Domestic drops on Blue Beetle post-holiday, but because the Holiday weekend numbers were artificially raised, it will probably add to the drop this weekend as well. Those 55% and 56% drops we've seen the last 2 days were normal drops based off of normal days last week (which were themselves 60% and 56% drops from the week before). Friday's drop was 41%. Saturday's drop was 34%. Sunday's drop was 48%.

If we get 50% drops this weekend worldwide, the money that it made extra on Labor Day isn't even going to be enough to make my prediction wrong. 50% for the next 4 days Domestic would be a weekly total of $6,556,992 by Sunday. Add $5 Million to that internationally and it's $11,556,992, which is only $157k higher than my prediction for Week 4, even with the extra $1.7 to $1.9 Million it got from Labor Day.

And again, that isn't even really my prediction. I knew that only subtracting 40% week to week to week was not the right thing to do for Blue Beetle. (40% drops are Barbie numbers, and even Barbie had a few weeks that were closer to the mid 40%'s). Those numbers I put up as an example on September 3rd are far too optimistic. Though it might be close this week, that was only because of the holiday. Expect those numbers to drift further apart every week as reality will be a larger per-week drop than those 40% per week drop math equations were.


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Thursday, September 7, 2023 11:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Blue Beetle loses 530 theaters.

I still think that the holiday weekend saved it from losing as much as it should have, but apparently the last 2 days of really bad numbers were enough to still lose over 500.

It made $104 per theater on only its 20th day Wednesday. There's a chance it could go under $100 per theater Thursday night.



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Friday, September 8, 2023 11:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Blue Beetle loses 530 theaters.

I still think that the holiday weekend saved it from losing as much as it should have, but apparently the last 2 days of really bad numbers were enough to still lose over 500.

It made $104 per theater on only its 20th day Wednesday. There's a chance it could go under $100 per theater Thursday night.


Blue Beetle drops 59% on Thursday from last weekend for only $280k projected.

$84 per theater on Day 21.




If it only sees a 40% drop the next three days, it grosses $7,778,921 Domestic since Labor Day.

Its drops after raising 167% on the holiday from the week before were 55% on Tuesday, 56% on Wednesday, and 59% on Thursday.

If it drops 55% on average this weekend, it grosses $6,711,709 Domestic since Labor Day.

With $4.5 to $5.5 Million likely internationally, its range is between $11.2M and $13.3M added to the figure of just shy of $102 Million it had after Sunday night's and the international numbers were calculated after the weekend.

That's going to put it between $113.2 Million to $115.3 Million after Sunday night.


My prediction on September 3rd before the huge Labor Day gross was that it would have $113,274,000, based off of a 40% drop both Domestic and Worldwide.

My prediction off that model for the following week was $120,114,000.

Since 40% is not a thing that is going to be in Blue Beetle's future, I'd say that because of Labor Day Monday the number for Sunday night is pretty close to what reality will be, and that my numbers for week 4 onward are going to be progressively higher than reality every week.

Even though there's still no compelling evidence it's getting a release in China and Japan, it's still getting a release on 9/14 for Australia and New Zealand for sure, but after the first weekend that won't matter much since it looks as though if it's not getting a VOD release for purchase online on the 19th it will have one by the 26th.

Shazam II only grossed $4.2 Million in those countries combined, and unlike the month long delay before they got Blue Beetle, Shazam II was released in Australia and New Zealand on day one.

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Friday, September 8, 2023 7:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

If it only sees a 40% drop the next three days, it grosses $7,778,921 Domestic since Labor Day.


Bruce seems to think it's only going to drop 38% which would add $142,295 to that number, if true.

Quote:
Its drops after raising 167% on the holiday from the week before were 55% on Tuesday, 56% on Wednesday, and 59% on Thursday.

If it drops 55% on average this weekend, it grosses $6,711,709 Domestic since Labor Day.

With $4.5 to $5.5 Million likely internationally, its range is between $11.2M and $13.3M added to the figure of just shy of $102 Million it had after Sunday night's and the international numbers were calculated after the weekend.

That's going to put it between $113.2 Million to $115.3 Million after Sunday night.


So $115.5 worldwide is the high end prediction now.

I don't think Bruce is right, but I'm not going to argue it because of how weak the box office is suddenly looking. He's already not even mentioning The Equalizer 3 once in his weekly prediction article, and if you look at the weekdays this week for all the movies after Monday it looks like everybody in the country just collectively said "meh... I don't feel like going out to see a movie anymore".

I mean, really... Thursday's entire box office is probably the most pathetic thing I've ever seen on the-numbers.

34 different movies on offer and they couldn't even crack $10 Million nationwide. It wasn't all that long ago where Barbie was making that or close to it by itself on a weekday.

31 of the movies pulled in $625k or less. 26 of them pulled in less than $100k. 14 of them pulled in less than $50k. 10 of them pulled in less than $10k. 8 of them pulled in less than $5k.

And Insidious, Super Mario Bros, The Little Mermaid and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are all a part of that sub $5k crowd. First of all, I thought Spider-verse was pulled from the theaters a week ago, and I've been saying for weeks all 4 of those need to be retired. Now they're all grossing $10 to $35 per theater. Not even worth keeping the lights on. Embarrassing.

The Nun II is going to be this weekends winner, but it pulled in less on previews than Blue Beetle did. Equalizer 3 made half of that last night. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 got just $550k on previews.

Blue Beetle could get a bump higher this weekend just from bored people who want to see a movie but aren't into action or horror flicks and just don't see anything else even worth paying for that they haven't already seen.

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