CINEMA

Four More Avatar Movies announced on April 14, 2016

POSTED BY: SECOND
UPDATED: Friday, May 26, 2023 10:24
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023 8:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


January 21st: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $770 Million]

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

The-Numbers shaved its predictions for Avatar 2 domestically from $770 Million to $765 Million domestically, but I don't think it will even be close to that in the end.



January 23rd: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $765 Million]

Quote:

Quote:

While it’s topping the chart again, The Way of Water is continuing to lose steam in domestic markets. It’ll miss our model’s prediction by 28%, and the predicted final total for the domestic market declines from $765 million going into the weekend to $748 million today.


Well, well... $748 Million, huh?

The-Number's second lowered Domestic Projection is EXACTLY what I said Avatar 2 would make in the end if it managed to maintain its $40 Million dollar lead it had after Thursday night.

However...

You'd better go lower.




January 26th: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]

Quote:

I'm also anticipating another drop in the The-Numbers' prediction for Avatar 2's domestic take when the weekend predictions come out tomorrow.

Is tomorrow the day they predict that Avatar 2 will make less than Maverick did domestically, or will we have to wait another week for that prediction?



January 27th (early): [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]

Quote:

Let's see how low The-Numbers drops the Domestic prediction for Avatar 2 the third week in a row. If they're claiming more than $725 Million at this point, they're suffering from wishful thinking. If they still think it will make over $742 they're insane and need to fix their model.



January 27th (late): [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]

Quote:

Also, they made no mention of changing their prediction for the final take. It probably makes sense that they didn't with a weekend prediction that high.



Wow...

Despite just a small dip in The-Number's Weekend 7 prediction (3% more of a loss than they expected, vs 12% better than I'd thought it would have done), it appears that they've savagely downgraded Avatar's final domestic take in their model, dropping it far below what I even would have predicted at this point.

$665 Million is what they think it will end up with now, which is $53+ Million shy of Maverick's domestic total.

Maybe Bruce has been looking at my thread.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/253500830-2023-market-forecast-Avatar
-helps-boost-our-2023-prediction-to-8-8-billion


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Tuesday, January 31, 2023 10:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Avatar 2's Monday (Day 46): $1,174,887; Maverick's $2,041,252... And Maverick was already in 3rd place in the Domestic Box Office by this time.

It took Maverick 74 days to get that low.

Maverick made $8,549,925 Monday through Thursday in Week 7. Avatar 2 is going to make less than $5 Million this week.




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Thursday, February 2, 2023 1:02 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Avatar's cheap seat Tuesday (Day 47) was $1,512,270.

It was Day 68 when Maverick's cheap seat Tuesday was that low.



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Thursday, February 2, 2023 7:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).

Maverick's first sub $300 per theater day was a Monday, Day 82.

Tomorrow it finally gets some competition and will be moved to position 2.



At some point I'm going to sit down and compare countries where they were both released internationally too. It's a lot more than just the fact that China allowed Avatar 2 and will account for around $250k by the end of the run. The list of countries on the International tabs at the-numbers is twice as long for Avatar 2 than it was for Maverick.

Even more interesting is that Avatar 2 made less than 1/3rd what Maverick did so far in Japan, and it's still trailing what Maverick made in the UK by $15k and it's still doing far better internationally just because of the sheer number of countries that allowed A2 to play when they banned Maverick from being shown.

A2 and James get a big Asterisk next to this one.

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Thursday, February 2, 2023 10:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).



Nope. It went down, but only to 3,310 theaters.

I won't tell them how to do their business, but I think that's a mistake. They may make a few extra bucks off of it, but it certainly won't do their per theater average any favors next week.

It will be interesting to see what the-numbers' prediction for the weekend will be with some competition when the article comes out tomorrow.

Without spending any real time on it, I'll predict $9 Million for Weekend 8, and if that's the case it will cede another $3.3 Million from its current lead of $22,693,557.

Maybe it gets lucky and makes $11 Million this weekend. Who knows? Are people going to choose to see a M Knight movie about the apocalypse and/or a movie about 4 women in their 80's I didn't even know were still alive fawning over Tom Brady hard enough that Avatar really gets its ass kicked this weekend?

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Friday, February 3, 2023 2:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).




Nope. It's Thursday was worse. $1,005,502, which means $279 per theater.




Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: (January 31st):
Avatar 2's Monday (Day 46): $1,174,887; Maverick's $2,041,252... And Maverick was already in 3rd place in the Domestic Box Office by this time.

It took Maverick 74 days to get that low.

Maverick made $8,549,925 Monday through Thursday in Week 7. Avatar 2 is going to make less than $5 Million this week.



Avatar's total for Week 7 (Mon-Thurs): $4,771,139

A2's lead on Maverick just shrunk by another $3,778,786, and now sits at $19,657,874 going into weekend 8.




Online sites that are not the-numbers have predicted an $11 Million Weekend 8 for A2. That was my high end prediction, with $9M being my low end prediction.

So is it going to lose another $1.3M to Maverick this weekend, or $3.3M?

Let's see what the-numbers has to say tonight.

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Friday, February 3, 2023 11:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The-Numbers is going to go out on a limb and predict $13.1 Million for the weekend; higher than any other site predicted. It beats Maverick's Weekend 8 but $800,000 if that happens.

I seriously doubt it. It would have to best Maverick's 21% dip that weekend and have only an 18% dip. The only thing that Avatar has been beating Maverick at in the states has been seeing poor numbers in every category weeks before Maverick did.

The $13.1 prediction puzzles me. Bruce just put out an article recently lowering his prediction for Avatar 2 all the way down to only $660 Million Domestically, but if he still believes that A2 is going to be pulling in $13M on weekend 8 and it isn't going to start quickly going down the tubes, it will end up with a lot more than that by the end of its run, considering it's already at $625M +.

I'm going to stick to my guns and say $9M for the weekend, although an $11M weekend is still well within the realm of possibility if the two new flicks under-perform.



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Saturday, February 4, 2023 12:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The-Numbers is going to go out on a limb and predict $13.1 Million for the weekend; higher than any other site predicted. It beats Maverick's Weekend 8 but $800,000 if that happens.

I seriously doubt it. It would have to best Maverick's 21% dip that weekend and have only an 18% dip. The only thing that Avatar has been beating Maverick at in the states has been seeing poor numbers in every category weeks before Maverick did.

The $13.1 prediction puzzles me. Bruce just put out an article recently lowering his prediction for Avatar 2 all the way down to only $660 Million Domestically, but if he still believes that A2 is going to be pulling in $13M on weekend 8 and it isn't going to start quickly going down the tubes, it will end up with a lot more than that by the end of its run, considering it's already at $625M +.

I'm going to stick to my guns and say $9M for the weekend, although an $11M weekend is still well within the realm of possibility if the two new flicks under-perform.



Friday's projection for Avatar 2: $2,400,000 (A 34% drop from the week before)

Maverick made $3,468,617 on the same day (Friday, Day 50)

Unless that projection is really low, there's zero chance now it will do as well as The-Numbers predicted, and very little chance that it could even get the $11M the other websites were predicting. I'm sticking with my $9M prediction for the weekend, although it could be $9.5 to $10 Million.

This bumps A2 down to 3rd place for Friday, pulling in less than half than 2nd place 80 For Brady did, and with the high theater count it will be penalized again with it's first weekend day that is sub-$1000 per theater by quite a bit at only $725 per theater. Maverick didn't see a weekend day that low until Friday (Day 71).

At some point one would imagine the theater chains aren't going to deem it worthwhile to keep this in theaters because of the cost of overhead and I think the time it spends in theaters is going to be far less than Maverick's 203 days.



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Saturday, February 4, 2023 1:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Welcome to the party, Forbes. Better late than never:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2023/02/04/avatar-sequel-wont-
sink-titanic-as-3rd-highest-grossing-film
/

Quote:

As of Friday morning, Avatar: The Way of Water needed about $64 million to top Titanic. This weekend, I expect The Way of Water t0 sail toward $8-10 million stateside and around $30+/- million internationally, so conservatively call it $35-40 million, cutting the distance between Avatar 2 and Titanic to somewhere between $20-30 million.


I mean... I called that days before you did, and I don't get paid to do this.



And poor, clueless screen rant...

https://screenrant.com/avatar-way-of-water-box-office-third-place-deta
ils
/

Quote:

While it was always possible it would lose the No. 1 spot this weekend, it wasn't a sure thing that it would drop until the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania on February 17, so dropping two slots at once is something of a surprise.


A surprise to you. Yes.

Quote:

Avatar: The Way of Water only took in around $10 million domestic this weekend, which is about half of what the original film made on the same weekend, when it slipped to No. 2. This would seem to indicate that the film's rapid rise up the charts has hit the brakes. While it will likely continue to rack in huge numbers in international markets until Ant-Man 3 premieres, it's looking incredibly unlikely that the Avatar sequel will even crack the Top 5 domestic releases of all time.


Awwwwwwww...

Quote:

However, Avatar: The Way of Water is almost certain to topple Titanic as the third highest-grossing film of all time in the worldwide market. It remains to be seen how the film will perform overseas over the next two weeks. However, that seems to be its major window to close the gap between its current place and the all-time No. 1 slot, which is still looking like a much loftier goal than it did a couple of weeks ago.


It was never going to happen. If anybody working at your outfit knew how to math and compare trending graphs, you would have known that a long time ago like I did.



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Saturday, February 4, 2023 5:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


They just dropped Avatar's Friday projection by $50k. It came damn close to losing 3rd place to a season finale of some show called The Chosen that was being shown in 1,300 less theaters.

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Sunday, February 5, 2023 11:52 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The weekend projections for the top three just seem silly after Friday night's projections. Especially considering the $50k downgrade that A2 got late in the night yesterday.

80 for Brady (a film directed SQUARELY at senior citizens) got double what A2 did on Friday night, but somehow it only beats A2 by $1.7M for the weekend and nearly matches it on Sunday? Yeah... Probably not.

They're projecting $10.8 Million now for A2 for the weekend, which means that The-Numbers was off by a lot (again), although I missed the mark by just about as much the other way if that's the actual numbers.

I don't think it will be, and that number should actually fall this time when the actual numbers roll in.

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Monday, February 6, 2023 8:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Somehow it went up after the projections. Shenanigans or not, it still lost more ground to Maverick this weekend.

A2: $11,335,304 ; Maverick: $12,306,381

Loss: $971,077

A2's current lead is now: $18,686,797 (Day 52)

A2's lead after weekend 4 was $50,805,745 (Day 24)

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Tuesday, February 7, 2023 11:49 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Avatar 2 will post it's first sub-Million domestic day Monday (Day 53)... Something that took Maverick 76 days to do.

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Tuesday, February 7, 2023 7:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Avatar 2 will post it's first sub-Million domestic day Monday (Day 53)... Something that took Maverick 76 days to do.



Day 53: $718,417

It took Maverick 90 days to post a day that low.

It took in $217 per theater; something that took Maverick 95 days to fall below.

It's done. Zero chance that A2 can beat Maverick in the states.


Now the only question left is how many days left until it gets booted out of theaters because of the overhead.

Current A2 lead over Maverick on day 53 is down to $17,549,526.

Current amount A2 would have to make to beat Maverick is $81,058,658.

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Friday, February 10, 2023 3:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Avatar 2 made $965,824 on Cheap Ticket Tuesday (Day 54).

The first time Maverick made under a million on Cheap Ticket Tuesday was Day 89.


A2's theater count cut down to 3,065, which is a mistake. Should be 2,500 or less right now. I'll wait until next Friday to throw out my I Told You So's on that one.


Once Thursday's A2 numbers are in, its lead over Maverick going into Weekend 9 will be just around $14.5 Million.

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Friday, February 10, 2023 6:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Once Thursday's A2 numbers are in, its lead over Maverick going into Weekend 9 will be just around $14.5 Million.



$14,469,844



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Saturday, February 11, 2023 12:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


A2's Friday projection: $1,691,000

It's got a lot of ground to make up if it's going to match The Numbers' model prediction of $9,220,000. Bruce did say though that he thought the model was high and it will more likely be $8,500,000 for Weekend 9. Personally, I'm betting on $7,750,000 for the weekend.

A2 is getting a bit of a break that the new Magic Mike movie is being released in only 1,500 theaters over some sort of backlash or something I couldn't give two shits about and won't bother looking into.

It will be the last weekend that A2 has a chance to make any real money with the new Marvel movie that nobody should still care about in 2023 comes out next weekend.



Maverick made $2,788,380 on day 57, which means that unless the model is low, it's lost another 1,097,380 in a single day, putting A2's current lead after day 57 down to $13,372,464.

A2 is about to flatline on the DBO graph.


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Sunday, February 12, 2023 1:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
A2's Friday projection: $1,691,000

It's got a lot of ground to make up if it's going to match The Numbers' model prediction of $9,220,000. Bruce did say though that he thought the model was high and it will more likely be $8,500,000 for Weekend 9. Personally, I'm betting on $7,750,000 for the weekend.



$6,884,000 is the projected total for Weekend 9. That's almost a million lower than my prediction was. I think it's going to tack some money back on once the final numbers come in though since that is what's happened every single weekend since A2 came out.

Maverick's Weekend 9 total was $10,270,995.

Maverick's first Sub-$2 Million weekend day was Day 71. It's first weekend day as low as A2's Sunday (Day 59: $1,376,000) wasn't until Friday (Day 92: $1,354,937).

Day 92 was also Maverick's first sub-$500 per theater on a weekend day, while A2 just had that on Sunday (Day 59: $449)

A2's lead over Maverick at Day 59 is now down to only $11,082,849. It may be as high as $11.5 Million once the real numbers roll in tomorrow.


The above numbers will change a bit when the real numbers come in. I probably won't bother changing them since it's all going to be close and nothing stated above should change.

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Wednesday, February 15, 2023 8:09 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

A2's lead over Maverick at Day 59 is now down to only $11,082,849. It may be as high as $11.5 Million once the real numbers roll in tomorrow.


A2's lead after the real numbers came in for Weekend 9 was $11,416,744.




A2 had a hell of a Cheap Ticket Tuesday on Valentine's Day. It's the first day that it's beat Maverick on the same day (Day 61) in ages. In context, Day 60 (Monday) saw Maverick making over 1 Million more than A2 did on the same day, but A2 eeked out about $66k more than Maverick did on Tuesday.

A2's lead over Maverick is now down to $10,670,102 after Valentine's Day.






I still don't know why Bruce had lowered his prediction for A2's final take all the way down to only $660 Million domestically a week or two back. I said at the time I thought that was way too low.

I think theater counts are really going to drop soon and the new Marvel drek comes out this weekend, but it's already at $649+ Million. Even though it won't come close to touching Maverick's $718+ Million, it will beat $660 Million by quite a bit, IMO.

Until we have more info after this weekend, I'm going to split the difference and call it $689 Million for A2's final domestic take. But really that depends on how quickly the Theater Owners want to get it out of their theaters. If it doesn't come close to Maverick's 203 days in the theaters, it probably isn't going to make another $40 Million, so the high cost of showing it coupled with the high ticket prices might really hurt it on the back end, like I predicted quite a while ago.

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Thursday, February 16, 2023 7:55 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Day 62: $689,282

A2 takes 4th place and is 3rd behind "Winnie-The-Pooh: Blood and Honey".

A2's lead over Maverick on day 62: $9,967,079

My guess right now is that Maverick takes the lead on Day 74.

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Thursday, February 16, 2023 10:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


A2 drops to 2,675 theaters this weekend from 3,075 last weekend, which is more in line with what it should have dropped to last weekend.

At this point, I think it's still far too high, especially with another Marvel piece of crap being dropped tomorrow night that the idiot masses should eat up. They seem to be expecting that to happen too since it's going to be released in a whopping 4,345 locations, which ranks it 40th on the list of widest releases in US history.

Given that the drop for A2 was steeper than I thought they would actually drop it this weekend, my prediction that Maverick would overtake it on day 74 may have been premature. It may happen the preceding weekend at some point rather than on the following Monday.

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Friday, February 17, 2023 8:55 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Day 63: $525,564

A2 takes 4th place for two days in a row.

Blood and Honey must really suck. It lost 90% from Wednesday to Thursday. Good. Who wants to see murderous Winnie-The-Pooh anyhow? People are sick in the head in 2023.

Get some help.





A2's lead over Maverick on day 35: $39,800,986

A2's lead over Maverick on day 63: $9,054,291


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Friday, February 17, 2023 10:55 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce doesn't even bother mentioning A2 in his article for the weekend for the first time.

His prediction for Weekend 10 is $6,190,000.

Nope. It's not going to make a dime more than $5,500,000.



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Saturday, February 18, 2023 8:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Bruce doesn't even bother mentioning A2 in his article for the weekend for the first time.

His prediction for Weekend 10 is $6,190,000.

Nope. It's not going to make a dime more than $5,500,000.



I made an error in my prediction here. I forgot that last Sunday was Super Bowl Sunday and it artificially lowered last weekend's take. A2 has made more money on Sunday in all but 3 of the weekend's it has been released, usually by quite a bit. So with the $1.3 Million projected for Friday, it likely will make what Bruce said or possibly 100 or 200k above his prediction if Friday's projection isn't high.

Even with that number, it's poised to lose $2,000,000 more on its lead against Maverick after the weekend numbers are solidified on Monday.

As it stands right now with Friday's prediction, A2's lead seems to have dwindled to just about $8,000,004 over Maverick on day 64 and the flatline of the curve has officially begun. I'll wait until the weekend numbers are official to update the graph.




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Sunday, February 19, 2023 12:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Projections for the weekend are already in. A2 Projected to make $6,118,000 right now.

If that projection wasn't low, then A2's lead over Maverick after Weekend 10 (Day 66) is down to $6,764,701.

Maverick still has a week and a half of making more than $1 Million per day until Day 76.

A2 has only had one week day above $1 Million for the last two weeks, which was Valentine's day and barely pulled in half a Million on Thursday.

It will maintain it's lead over Maverick through the week, but sometime this weekend Maverick will pull ahead. My guess is Saturday.

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Thursday, February 23, 2023 11:36 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Bruce doesn't even bother mentioning A2 in his article for the weekend for the first time.

His prediction for Weekend 10 is $6,190,000.

Nope. It's not going to make a dime more than $5,500,000.



I made an error in my prediction here. I forgot that last Sunday was Super Bowl Sunday and it artificially lowered last weekend's take. A2 has made more money on Sunday in all but 3 of the weekend's it has been released, usually by quite a bit. So with the $1.3 Million projected for Friday, it likely will make what Bruce said or possibly 100 or 200k above his prediction if Friday's projection isn't high.



It actually made $360k more than Bruce Predicted over the weekend.

It had a surprisingly low Cheap Ticket Tuesday at only $662,015 after a President's Day showing of $1,511,832. (There must be a lot of Government Employees who wanted to see it again?).

I could be wrong, but this could be really bad for A2's numbers this week, since aside from holidays Tuesdays always outpace Monday, Wednesday and Thursday by quite a bit. We'll know once Wednesday's numbers come in later today, but I think A2's run in the theater might be just about done in the States.


A2 Day 68 Total: $659,682,302

Maverick Day 68 Total: $653,045,905

A2's lead at $6,636,397



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Thursday, February 23, 2023 4:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

It had a surprisingly low Cheap Ticket Tuesday at only $662,015 after a President's Day showing of $1,511,832. (There must be a lot of Government Employees who wanted to see it again?).

I could be wrong, but this could be really bad for A2's numbers this week, since aside from holidays Tuesdays always outpace Monday, Wednesday and Thursday by quite a bit. We'll know once Wednesday's numbers come in later today, but I think A2's run in the theater might be just about done in the States.



Wednesday: $498,656

Yeah. That's not good.

Maverick's first Sub $500k day wasn't until Monday (Day 92), and we're only on day 69 right now.

This gets A2 over the $660 Million that Bruce last predicted A2 would make for its entire run a while back, but there won't be any longevity to A2's Domestic run like Maverick's 203 days.

A2's lead over Maverick on Day 69 now down to $5,913,488.



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Friday, February 24, 2023 9:24 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


A2 gets cut down to 2,495 theaters this weekend. It's still too many.

Last Thursday it only averaged $171 per theater with 3,065 theaters, and after being cut down to 2,675 theaters last weekend it only averaged $186 Wednesday (Day 69) and will be lucky if it doesn't dip below $150 for Thursday.

Maverick didn't see a day under $200 until Monday (Day 95).



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Monday, February 27, 2023 6:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


A2's lead after the weekend (Day 73) now down to only $3,026,429.

Maverick was still pulling in an average over $1M per day this following week, where A2 was pulling in an average of virtually half that last week if you factor out the President's Day showing last Monday.

My bet is that Maverick will close the gap to around $250-$550k after Thursday night, and on Friday Maverick will take over the lead for the Domestic Box Office and it will all be over.

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Friday, March 3, 2023 6:58 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My bet is that Maverick will close the gap to around $250-$550k after Thursday night, and on Friday Maverick will take over the lead for the Domestic Box Office and it will all be over.



Yup. Tonight is the night.

A2's lead after Thursday (Day 77): $382,711.




Maverick made $1,976,161 on Day 78.

A2 won't make $1 Million.

Bruce thinks that Puss n Boots might overtake Avatar this weekend after 11 weeks of trying. Theaters are going to regret only closing 195 and keeping 2,300 showing A2 this week for sure. Should see big drops in theater counts starting next week.

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Saturday, March 4, 2023 3:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My bet is that Maverick will close the gap to around $250-$550k after Thursday night, and on Friday Maverick will take over the lead for the Domestic Box Office and it will all be over.



Yup. Tonight is the night.

A2's lead after Thursday (Day 77): $382,711.

Maverick made $1,976,161 on Day 78.

A2 won't make $1 Million.



A2's Friday Projection: $776,000

Maverick takes the Domestic lead by $817,450 on Day 78.



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Sunday, March 5, 2023 11:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Unless the studio's projections for the weekend are wrong, Maverick will have a $3.1 Million lead on Avatar 2 after 80 days once the weekend numbers come in on Monday.



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Monday, March 6, 2023 10:13 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Real Weekend 12 are in...

A2's total after Day 80: $670,702,473

Maverick's total after Day 80: $673,724,507

Maverick is now ahead of A2 in the Domestic Theater Counts by $3,022,034 and will never look back.

By Day 87 Maverick made just shy of another $10 Million. A2 will be lucky to make $4 Million by Sunday night, so Maverick should be up somewhere close to $9 Million in another week.


Gains will be quick from now on and A2 should be booted out of US theaters long before Maverick's 203 day long run.


I'll probably only post here once a week from now on for updates.


I'd like to get this thread to 100 posts though so I can throw this thread back in his face whenever Second posts about the amount of posts I made about Joker out of context in the future.






DAY 42:

DAY 80:


Congratulations, Maverick.



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Friday, March 10, 2023 7:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
By Day 87 Maverick made just shy of another $10 Million. A2 will be lucky to make $4 Million by Sunday night, so Maverick should be up somewhere close to $9 Million in another week.



Day 83: Maverick's lead is $4,949,540.

It will be about $5.5 M going into the weekend.

Probably won't be $9 M after the weekend though. I think I aimed a tad high on that one.

More likely in the range of $8.3 to $8.5 Million.

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Friday, March 10, 2023 5:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
By Day 87 Maverick made just shy of another $10 Million. A2 will be lucky to make $4 Million by Sunday night, so Maverick should be up somewhere close to $9 Million in another week.



Day 83: Maverick's lead is $4,949,540.

It will be about $5.5 M going into the weekend.



$5,527,649

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Saturday, March 11, 2023 7:37 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: (January 28th)
So if A2 can't make up ground on the weekends going forward, it's now a game of attrition.

And I suspect that while it was a great boon for Avatar 2 to have such high ticket prices in the beginning, it's going to be a detriment on the back end. Not only that, but large scale theaters with IMAX screens and 3D cost more to operate and are likely to be shutdown to this movie sometime soon as the per-screen average continues to fall... much quicker than it did for Maverick.



A2 loses 625 theaters this week (Week 13), down to 1,675. Maverick was still being shown in 2,969 on week 13, and had made $400 more per theater in week 13 than A2 was making in week 12 when A2 was still being shown in 2,300 theaters. Maverick was still being shown in 3,181 theaters on week 12.




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Sunday, March 12, 2023 10:02 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Day 85: Maverick's lead is $6,490,375.

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Sunday, March 12, 2023 2:42 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Day 85: Maverick's lead is $6,490,375.

. . . the rebellious Maverick never questions the value of the mission itself, which could easily be an opening salvo of a major war.

The subtext of bombing a nuclear enrichment site, which could very well be in Iran, is a striking choice that betrays a bellicose worldview. It revives the neoconservative conception of preventive warfare — the idea of using force to eliminate threats to American power before they can emerge. . . . It’s also a particularly loaded scenario to portray at a time when, in the real world, the Iran nuclear deal is hanging by a thread and hawks are eager to scrap diplomatic efforts and green light bombardment of the country.

In other words, it’s a fantasy of war that could actually play out in real life. And it truly is a fantasy: War is portrayed purely as a source of glory and camaraderie for Maverick and his colleagues, who are all attractive people and manage to pull off their daring mission with zero casualties. Their training involves speed, sport and glamour; Cruise spends his spare time on a majestic sail boat for some reason. Much of the movie has the feel of a racing or sports movie, gamifying the use of lethal technology and geopolitical intervention as a contest of precise oneupmanship.

“Don’t think, just do,” Maverick constantly counsels his protégé Bradley “Rooster” Bradshaw, underscoring the movie’s plea for the audience to be mindless about combat. Maverick means to refer to the value of a pilot’s instinct, but he’s also asking his students to suspend their ability to think critically about the purpose of the institution they’re in.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/top-gun-maverick-oscars-20
23-rcna73773


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, March 13, 2023 12:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You've never thought critically once in your life, dipshit. Why don't you stick to cheerleading war with Russia in the RWED, you warmongering, Neo-Lib waste of carbon.




Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
By Day 87 Maverick made just shy of another $10 Million. A2 will be lucky to make $4 Million by Sunday night, so Maverick should be up somewhere close to $9 Million in another week.



Day 83: Maverick's lead is $4,949,540.

It will be about $5.5 M going into the weekend.

Probably won't be $9 M after the weekend though. I think I aimed a tad high on that one.

More likely in the range of $8.3 to $8.5 Million.

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Split the difference...

Day 87: $8,745,904



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Monday, March 13, 2023 8:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You've never thought critically once in your life, dipshit. Why don't you stick to cheerleading war with Russia in the RWED, you warmongering, Neo-Lib waste of carbon,

(FYI: 6ix wrote elsewhere dozens of times "Fuck Ukraine" to let everyone know where he stands on Good vs Evil.) Tom Cruise has let everyone know where he once stood, back in 1990:

Back in 1990, four years after the first “Top Gun” came out, Playboy magazine grilled Cruise by challenging him on whether the original "Top Gun" movie was dangerous war propaganda. Playboy’s interviewer described the movie as “war by Nintendo game and a paean to blind patriotism.” Cruise defended the movie as “an amusement park ride, a fun film with a PG-13 rating that was not supposed to be reality.” But he also seemed to acknowledge that there were still dangers to using a war movie as a form of mindless entertainment. He continued: “That’s why I didn’t go on and make Top Gun II and III and IV and V. That would have been irresponsible.”

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/top-gun-maverick-oscars-20
23-rcna73773


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, March 13, 2023 9:40 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Awwwwwww...

Somebody is just butthurt that Avatar 2 didn't do well here.

:(

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Monday, March 13, 2023 10:25 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Awwwwwww...

Somebody is just butthurt that Avatar 2 didn't do well here.

:(

Let me check to see if 6ix knows what he is writing about.

Avatar 2 is #3 at $2,293,697,185 on All Time Worldwide Box Office.
That means 6ix doesn't understand numbers higher than the $718,732,821 US Box Office for Top Gun Maverick.

1 2009 Avatar
2 2019 Avengers: Endgame
3 2022 Avatar: The Way of Water
4 1997 Titanic
5 2015 Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens
6 2018 Avengers: Infinity War

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/all-time


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, March 13, 2023 10:45 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It was supposed to be number 1. All the articles and critics predicted it would be number 1.



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Monday, March 13, 2023 7:37 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It was supposed to be number 1. All the articles and critics predicted it would be number 1.

Serenity (2005) was predicted to be number 1. All the articles and critics (who were Browncoats) predicted it would be number 1. I wonder what happen? $40,319,440 is what happened. Production Budget: $39,000,000. Where is the Firefly Trilogy? Nowhere!
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Serenity#tab=summary

Serenity 2005
8.3 USER SCORE Universal acclaim based on 814 Ratings
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/serenity

Top Gun: Maverick 2022
7.4 USER SCORE Generally favorable reviews based on 920 Ratings
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/top-gun-maverick

Avatar: The Way of Water 2022
7.3 USER SCORE Generally favorable reviews based on 917 Ratings
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/avatar-the-way-of-water

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, March 13, 2023 7:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It was supposed to be number 1. All the articles and critics predicted it would be number 1.

Serenity (2005) was predicted to be number 1. All the articles and critics (who were Browncoats) predicted it would be number 1. I wonder what happen?



I know exactly what happened.

Browncoats were just as biased to Serenity as all the woke-turd critics that will soon be unemployed were to Avatar 2.

OPPS!



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Monday, March 13, 2023 7:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh... and it should be noted that I found Maverick to be merely entertaining, and not much more than that myself. My review here after seeing it wasn't' exactly glowing. It was a fun to watch throwback to the 80's without much substance to it. A nice popcorn movie is all.

And just like Joker, it's a movie that I will probably never watch a 2nd time.


I'm just having fun cataloging woke trash like A2 fall to another Blockbuster just like I was having fun cataloging woke trash like whatever Star Wars movie was out at the time fell to Joker.

Good times.

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Friday, March 17, 2023 9:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


A2 loses 485 more theaters, down to 1,190 from 1,675 last week.

Maverick was still being shown in 2,962 theaters at this point in its run.

Maverick's lead is now $9,948,060 after Day 90 (Wednesday) and will be over $10 Million entering the 14th weekend.

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Friday, March 17, 2023 5:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maverick's lead is now $9,948,060 after Day 90 (Wednesday) and will be over $10 Million entering the 14th weekend.



$10,276,703



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Friday, March 17, 2023 5:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Maverick's Weekend 14 Take: $4,722,491

A2's Predicted Weekend 14 Take: $1,620,000

If true, that will put Maverick at well over a $13 Million lead after the weekend is over.


Weekend 15 for Maverick was also a bit of a revival and added 151 theaters, recorded a 27% increase over the previous weekend at $6,014,128, and saw it back at Number 1 for the weekend, up from Number 4 the previous weekend. (And also saw it just one day shy from locking in $700 Million Domestic).

No such thing will happen to A2 next weekend, and it will likely struggle to break $1 Million at the box office during Weekend 16.



Normally, with a movie as huge as A2 I would predict that they'd wait a few more weeks and re-open it in a decent number of theaters and try to get one last squeeze out of it before the run officially ends, but it's just too pricey to keep in theaters because of the overhead and it's already being shown in about only 1/3rd the amount of theaters that Maverick was at this point and is failing to bring in any real numbers.

We're still 12 days shy of the halfway point of Maverick's original Box Office run and I think A2 is just about to be pulled from theaters entirely.

I give it one more month, and would honestly be extremely surprised if you could still watch it in theaters by the end of April.



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Wednesday, March 22, 2023 6:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Day 95: Maverick's lead is $13,212,076.

Big weekend for Maverick coming up. Lead should be extended to around $18.5 Million after Sunday.

After that, the final lead in the Domestic Box office is really just dependent on how soon they pull Avatar out of the theaters. Maverick's numbers almost certainly will be higher every day it stays in theaters from here on out, but the numbers for both will be small enough that it will just be incremental gains after Sunday.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: (February 15th)
I still don't know why Bruce had lowered his prediction for A2's final take all the way down to only $660 Million domestically a week or two back. I said at the time I thought that was way too low.

I think theater counts are really going to drop soon and the new Marvel drek comes out this weekend, but it's already at $649+ Million. Even though it won't come close to touching Maverick's $718+ Million, it will beat $660 Million by quite a bit, IMO.

Until we have more info after this weekend, I'm going to split the difference and call it $689 Million for A2's final domestic take. But really that depends on how quickly the Theater Owners want to get it out of their theaters. If it doesn't come close to Maverick's 203 days in the theaters, it probably isn't going to make another $40 Million, so the high cost of showing it coupled with the high ticket prices might really hurt it on the back end, like I predicted quite a while ago.





So Bruce's final numbers for A2 was $660 Million, and my final prediction for A2 was $689 million back on February 15th. That would be another $10,534,112 before it's out of theaters. It still surprisingly pulled in another $4.1 Million last week after a stronger than expected weekend 15 and a pretty huge drop in theater counts.

It's hard to say what's going to happen until we know the theater counts next weekend, but it looks like it will probably hit $689 in the next 3 weeks. If the run ends there, both my prediction for the final numbers and the length it will be in theaters will be right. This is a probable outcome given the overhead for A2 and the fact it's already being shown in 1/3 of the theaters that Maverick was at this point in the run.

Maverick spent most of the back half of its run making double digits per theater during the week and low triple digits per theater on the weekends, falling to merely $25 per theater on it's 203rd and final day in theaters. In a lot of places, that was the cost of a single ticket for A2.

Maybe they'll keep A2 open in just a handful of theaters in major cities and keep interest up with the exclusivity of the thing and hang on for a few more months to try to crack $700 Million domestic before the end of the run.

Right now, with a current Day to Day comparison lead of $13,212,076, Maverick's final take after 203 days is $40,266,933 more than A2's current take at 95 days.

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