REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Putin visits China, and the hug heard round the world.

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Sunday, May 19, 2024 05:19
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Saturday, May 18, 2024 10:41 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Financial Times cartoon shows Putin happily clinging to Xi, while Xi looks at his watch behind Putin's back. Having seen a video, it was the other way around. Xi offered the hug with open arms, calling Putin "my great dear friend" while Putin looked a little startled and discomfited.

Considering China's current financial turmoil, I believe Russia is the stronger partner: it's blown past western sanctions while beating NATO's Ukrainian proxy, and keeping its economy and finances in order. China OTOH is still floundering, looking for that magic market that will absorb China's output and keep people busy at home.

Putin arrived with a HUGE delegation. Much of the Security Council went with him: Foreign Minister Lavrov, the former Defense Minister and current Secretary Shoigu, the current Defense Minister Belousov, Deputy PM in charge of overall economy (I forget his name), Head of Russian Central Bank Nabulina, three personal aides, Finance Minister Siluanov, other members of the Security Council, and a flock of industry executives too numerous to name.

Apparently this was a grand counterparty introduction.

A few thoughts come to mind.

The first impression was set by Xi's embrace, whcih smells a little like desperation.

The second is that, given the Chinese aversion to "losing face", I can't imagine and honest discussion between Xi and Putin. I trust the Russia has its own China analysts advising the Russian government, banks and industries!

My third thought is that war between China and the USA would certainly absorb China's "excess capacity", while stressing USA production and budget. And wstsrn sanctions would throw cold water on all of the USA- linked Chinese executives and officials, just as it did for Russia, hardening China against the USA.

My fourth thought is that China may finally be convinced to fully open its banks to ruble-yuan exchange and the Mir card. Supposedly Chinas big banks are avoiding dealing with Russian banks directly for fear of sanctions by the USA, and that all of the exchanges are being done by small Chinese agricultural banks.

Putin recently visited Iran IIRC, Nabulina's (Russian Central Bank) in China implies a mechanims for future sanction-proof exchanges.

On a side note, 90% of Russia-China trade is in local currency (yuan/ ruble). Since China and Russia have much to offer each other (Chinese chips, cars, machine tools, ships, and possibly infrastructure development of a more practical nature eg north- south trade route from Russia thru Iran to the Persian Gulf) having reserves in each other's currency can always be satisfied with mutual trade.

OTOH ruble -rupee (India) is more difficult. India's imports of Russian oil has gone from near zero to 40%, while it has become a major source of refined products to Europe. India is making bank on this. But it pays for Russian oil with rupees, which are not convertible. WTH does Russia buy with rupees?

Russia has solved this problem by using those rupees to invest in India. This is China's Belt and Road concept but with real practical benefitnbfor hoth nations, since Russia can invest in Indian sectors that it wants to enhance (pharmaceuticals?) and Modis's has (had?) a "make in India" campaign.

I got info from several of "The Duran" videos, a little from Andrei Martyanov, and some from M$M.

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Saturday, May 18, 2024 1:24 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Oh, and how could I have forgotten?!?

Another golden opportunity for China is rebuilding Russo-Ukraine. I just hope it's not the "instant" crap that famously doesn't work or falls apart shortly afterwards.
That's a quality control problem writ large!

****
A somewhat random thought:

Given the timing of Belousev's appointment as Defense Minister, I suspect it may have to do with the anticipated winding down of the war in Ukraine. I saw a video of his statement to the Duma of what he has been tasked to do, and those tasks are to

Make Defense spending more efficient
Implement improved management, and production practices and
Fully integrate military technical discoveries/ improvements into the civilian economy

Now, these are very generalized statements that could mean anything. It could mean something as humdrum as transfering chip- making technology to the civilian economy.

It could mean that Russian scientists have made groundbreaking discoveries in physics and technology that could rewrite computing, communication, energy production, metalworking or some other field I can't imagine.

It could mean that the Russian government has found a better way to manage public/ private partnerships that could be applied to existing private enterprises...

.... or the upcoming rebuilding of Russo- Ukraine.

Or all of the above. Or perhaps something I can't even imagine.

Just trying to expand my imagination to different possibilities that we (the USA) might be faced with is the medium-term.

Any other thoughts come to mind, please feel free to add. Except calling me a "Russian troll". We live in a real world, and your inability and the inability of our fearless leaders to cope with it is our tragedy, not our strength.

Thanks.

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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

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Sunday, May 19, 2024 2:31 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


That hug. The other interpretation that I read makes sense to me is that it was a big middle finger to Biden.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.

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Sunday, May 19, 2024 5:19 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


The mess and bloodshed and chaos Putin created, it seems he's going to be a gimp boy servant to India and China


Putin has fallen down that ladder, not sure where Brazil fits in all this


South Africa they don't seem to do much anymore, maybe riot for a while nation wide power cuts where everyone lacks electricity, almost a zombie apocalypse at times and they have gone back to very very basic economic even more basic than Russia, so everyone gets to eat that cake, take the Gold, Iron Ore, Manganese, Copper, Beryllium, Diamonds and Platinum



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