REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Defense against ethnic cleansing, or invasion?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Wednesday, February 10, 2010 10:38
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Friday, August 8, 2008 6:46 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Or both?

Russia has invaded South Ossetia, which is formally a part of Georgia. However, South Ossetia is ethnically, linguistically, and economically closer to Russia, and most of its residents hold Russian passports. South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia in the early 1990s.
According to some sources Georgia was engaged in ethnic cleansing to prepare the land for immigration by Georgians and put down the separatist movement once and for all.
Quote:

South Ossetia is inhabited mostly by ethnic Ossetians who speak a language remotely related to Farsi. Georgians account for less than one-third of the population....By tradition, the Ossetians have had good relations with Russians and were regarded as loyal citizens, first of the Russian empire and later of the Soviet Union. They sided with the Kremlin when Bolshevik forces occupied Georgia in the early 1920s and, as part of the carve-up which followed, the South Ossetian Autonomous Region was created in Georgia and North Ossetia was formed in Russia.

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm

Now, quite frankly my view is that people should be allowed to belong to whatever groups they want to belong to. Trying to impose an identity on a people... whether it was the North trying to impose an identity on the South, England imposing an identity on Ireland, Tito imposing an identity on Yugoslavia, or Saddam imposing a Sunni identity on Iraq... just ain't gonna work. It might be best if groups of people could deal with each other as equals not as "minorities" and "majorities". I believe that over time arm's-length relationships will lead to mutual respect and acceptance, provided that each group has true authority and responsibility for itself. But hey, I could be wrong.

---------------------------------
Any idea, no matter how much you may agree with it, can be radicalized and employed as an excuse for violence. There is no such thing as a righteous or untouchable philosophy, and when you start thinking that there is, you have become an extremist.- Finn Mac Cumhal

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Friday, August 8, 2008 7:26 AM

HERO


The real question is how this will affect Atlanta Falcons home games and the price of peaches.

Cause its Georgia...get it...Georgia.

The Russian General is named Williamovich Tceumseva Shermonov...

Georgia, Georgia, no peace I find
Just an old sweet song keeps Georgia on my mind.


H


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Friday, August 8, 2008 7:41 AM

RIVERLOVE


Russia gets the Gold Medal

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Friday, August 8, 2008 7:47 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Maybe the South Ossetians hate Russia for their freedoms. Or maybe the Russians are spreading freedom and democracy through the region.

Who knows? Maybe they'll be greeted as liberators!

What's the worst that could happen?



Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Friday, August 8, 2008 7:52 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by Hero:
The real question is how this will affect Atlanta Falcons home games and the price of peaches.

Cause its Georgia...get it...Georgia.

The Russian General is named Williamovich Tceumseva Shermonov...

Georgia, Georgia, no peace I find
Just an old sweet song keeps Georgia on my mind.


H




Now THAT is funny stuff. Shermonov even sounds like a Russian tank-general's name!

I just have one question about all this:

What the hell is this going to do to HOTlanta?! What am I going to do for FreakNik this year?!

(Okay, that's two questions...)

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Friday, August 8, 2008 11:14 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
...as part of the carve-up which followed, the South Ossetian Autonomous Region was created in Georgia and North Ossetia was formed in Russia.



So if Russia 'liberates' South Ossetia, are they going to let it combine with their North Ossetia into the independent nation of Greater Ossetia?

Even more importantly, if Russia decides to keep going and invade Georgia proper, will the US come to Georgia's defense? Seems like a shame that we spent all that time and effort building a military specifically to take on the Russians, and never got a chance to use it. Maybe redemption is at hand.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Friday, August 8, 2008 12:52 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Seems like a shame that we spent all that time and effort building a military specifically to take on the Russians, and never got a chance to use it. Maybe redemption is at hand.


We DID use it; in fact, we still are. Just not against the Russians. We depleted our massive military might against people with rocks and roadside bombs. 5.5 years later, they still haven't recognized our policy of "peace through superior firepower".



Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Saturday, August 9, 2008 2:04 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
We DID use it; in fact, we still are. Just not against the Russians. We depleted our massive military might against people with rocks and roadside bombs. 5.5 years later, they still haven't recognized our policy of "peace through superior firepower".



Just for once, in a completely unrelated to Iraq thread, can't you give it a rest?

Probably not.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Saturday, August 9, 2008 4:08 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Just pointing out that much of that enormous military that we built to "take on the Russians" has indeed been used, but as usual, it didn't happen in the way we expected and built for.

I'll be very interested to see what Russia does from this point, and how the U.S. reacts.



Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Saturday, August 9, 2008 6:22 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


From what I gather, South Oessetians have chosne to be part of Russia since days of yore (earlier than 1870).

I'm surprised that nobody said If you think people should be able to be part of any group they want, why are you so bothered by "illegal" immigration?" And indeed, I haven't been able to reconcile that gap.

---------------------------------
Any idea, no matter how much you may agree with it, can be radicalized and employed as an excuse for violence. There is no such thing as a righteous or untouchable philosophy, and when you start thinking that there is, you have become an extremist.- Finn Mac Cumhal

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Saturday, August 9, 2008 6:31 AM

MIIKE


been watching the events unfold on tv and its real scary whats happening as georgia wants to be a nato country, this means that we the uk and the U.S will be obliged to help georgia if russia continue to attack ,this could be the start of a world war 3 or i may be over exaggerating not sure .all the best miike


October 12th, 1985. Dog carcass in alley this morning, tire tread on burst stomach. This city is afraid of me. I have seen its true face. The streets are extended gutters and the gutters are full of blood and when the drains finally scab over, all the vermin will drown.

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Saturday, August 9, 2008 6:50 AM

KHYRON


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
I'm surprised that nobody said If you think people should be able to be part of any group they want, why are you so bothered by "illegal" immigration?" And indeed, I haven't been able to reconcile that gap.

In the context of this thread, I'd say the former implies some sort of political consensus among the populace that they don't want to belong to country A anymore, they'd rather either be an independent country or part of a neighbouring country B. If it's the former, they should go for it. If it's the latter, then as long as country B is alright with it, they should go for it. Illegal immigration, on the other hand, is a bunch of individuals entering a country without that country's consent.

------------------------------

This isn't my signature. I have to type this every time I make a post.

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Sunday, August 10, 2008 2:26 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


So, not content with 'liberating' South Ossetia, Russia is now continuing to attack Georgia, which has an army of 26,000: with 82 tanks, 137 APCs, 7 aircraft, and 95 pieces of heavy artillery. Russia's got an army of 641,000: with 6717 tanks, 6388 APCs, 1206 aircraft, and 7550 pieces of heavy artillery.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552908.stm

The population of Georgia is about one third the population of Moscow, or 3% of the population of Russia.

Looks like Russia can change its political system, but can't quite get rid of the empire thing.





"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Sunday, August 10, 2008 5:48 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Just wait 'til they get to Serenity Valley... I'm thinkin' the Georgians might do the impossible, and that will make them mighty.

Or they could get wiped out to the last man.

What I'm wondering is, where does this leave the U.S.? We've been supporting Georgia's bid to join NATO, but we've also been trying to play nice with the Russkies. So what do WE do now? Take a side? Sit it out? Depend on the [GASP!] UN?!

Beats the shit outta me...

M

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Monday, August 11, 2008 2:07 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
Just wait 'til they get to Serenity Valley... I'm thinkin' the Georgians might do the impossible, and that will make them mighty.

Or they could get wiped out to the last man.

What I'm wondering is, where does this leave the U.S.? We've been supporting Georgia's bid to join NATO, but we've also been trying to play nice with the Russkies. So what do WE do now? Take a side? Sit it out? Depend on the [GASP!] UN?!

Beats the shit outta me...

M



For me this boils down on 2 factors

1Russians are still commie A-holes
Russia is flexing its muscles, they have been politically butting heads with Georgia for some time. Georgia with its small army is no match for the large numbers of Russian troops. every time the USA tries to install missile defense against Iran the paranoid Russians think we are trying to check them.
USA could try going into Black sea and try policing the area but the Army and Marine Corps are very stretched from two current wars, troops need their hospital bills taken care of and US forces need to be re-built to their former strength. This is Russia's backyard, a run of Subs, Backfires with supersonic cruise missiles and MIG-29s would unleash more power than even our best AEGIS cruisers can take care of.
This would make the most violent US losses in Iraq look tame, yes we might come off better but its not wise to back a Nuclear armed Russia and former Superpower into the corner. President Medvedev called for "liberation" of the people but my guess is the real guy pulling the strings is Vladimir Putin a KGB man who sees paranoia and conspiracies everywhere.

The second factor I think it boils down to is
2USA mismanagement of their Georgia relationship like their Iraq disaster these past years. Remember we used to support Iraq at one time against Iran etc
Similar to Iraq muddle, Georgia is a mess of a different bunch of cultures and ethnic peoples and we never considered this.
The former USSR and Georgian nationalists might have kept a lid on culture clashes but the possible only solution is a three-state system like the proposed idea of breaking Iraq into 3 : Kurd North, Sunni, Shite etc.
In Georgia you got Abkhaz peoples and Ossetians etc who all want their independence but both Russia and Georgia lay claim over them. I suspect one of the big loser will be the people's crying for independence no matter who wins.
President Bush backed Georgia against Russia some months ago, but he should have made his position clearer.
The Georgia leader Saakashvili is a bit of a loon and took the Bush statement as a guarantee the USA will jump into a fight no matter what. Bush should have made his statement clear and said something like "This doesn't mean you can kick a sleeping Bear in the Balls and expect us to support you"
Frankly Georgia was a bit f**king stupid to pick a fight with the Bear, they are outclassed and out gunned (PS Georgians are out of position and mostly stationed in Iraq helping the Bush war on terror) . They and their little army of a few thousand will have a fight with 30,000 Russian tanks and over 1500 3rd generation fighter aircraft
Ossetia and the Abkhazia people want independence but this will never be internationally recognized because of BS politics on both sides.
the USA has its own troubles right now and ain't keen on getting dragged into another f**cking war.


Once Georgia/Russia pipelines get hit, I expect Oil to skyrocket and the US dollar to take some nasty hits on the financial market.

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Monday, August 11, 2008 4:09 AM

FREMDFIRMA


I have some suspicions.

Look at the geographical positioning of Georgia, and potential supply routes for their support of middle east allies - and tell me it does not occur to you that this particular set of events might have been "helped along" by certain someones intelligence people ?

There's little if any evidence of that, but just sayin it's awfully damned convenient.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Monday, August 11, 2008 4:38 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


It has already been pointed out by the State Department to the Georgian leadership that they are NOT a full member of NATO - at least not yet - so we are under no OFFICIAL obligation to help them out. And yeah, we don't really want to go poking the bear in his own cage.

Gonna be an interesting few weeks, I think. They've been saying that this could be a worst-case scenario, with a desperate and nuclear-armed Georgia facing off against insurmountable odds and a nuclear-armed Russia. Hold on to your hats; it could be a bumpy ride!

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Monday, August 11, 2008 5:01 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
Hold on to your hats; it could be a bumpy ride!




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Monday, August 11, 2008 5:49 AM

PARTICIPANT


more conspiracies
http://jonnyfrag.wordpress.com/2008/08/11/pattern-of-exercises/
Quote:

Pattern of Exercises

Despite efforts to downplay it in the US media, there is a very dramatic war that has broken out between Georgia and Russia. Reports are coming out now (via the Russian news media) that perhaps American soldiers and/or Mercs (Blackwater) are on the ground ‘advising’, some ‘advising’ to their deaths. Well that sounds like it might be true or just as easily Russian propaganda, on the face of it anyway.

If you go back just a little bit you will see that last month American forces participated in an exercise with Georgia practicing the scenario that is currently unfolding. It was important enough to warrant a visit from Condi Rice to Georgia even (wonder if she got on the plane thinking she was going to the southern state…)

What of it, you might ask. If you look at recent history, there have been two other times widely known that an event of import was practiced just before or DURING the actual event. The two events I am speaking of are Sep 11, 2001 and the 7/7 bombings in London. Both of these events were being practiced (planned months ahead of time) when they actually started. In the case of the 7/7 bombings, an interview was shown with one of the coordinators of the exercise saying ‘We were practicing this at the exact locations so when it happened for real, we had to shift into real world mode right away.’

Of course I am sure this is ALL coincidence, right?


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Monday, August 11, 2008 6:08 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Huh. Well, lotsa stuff I didn't know about came up in this thread. Needs some research.

---------------------------------
Any idea, no matter how much you may agree with it, can be radicalized and employed as an excuse for violence. There is no such thing as a righteous or untouchable philosophy, and when you start thinking that there is, you have become an extremist.- Finn Mac Cumhal

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Monday, August 11, 2008 7:27 AM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
There's little if any evidence of that...


And thats more then you ever seem to need.


H

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Monday, August 11, 2008 7:44 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


...and all YOU'VE ever needed, "Hero", was, "Well, Bush says..."


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Monday, August 11, 2008 7:50 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Georgia to withdraw all of its troops from Iraq
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Georgia_to_withdraw_all_of_its_troops_
from_Iraq_999.html




Russian forces swept across Georgia on Monday, capturing the town of Gori and moving to within 35 miles of the capital city Tbilisi, FOX News confirmed.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,401243,00.html

Georgian president runs for cover
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7554417.stm

U.S. military aircraft bring 800 Georgian troops home from Iraq
MOSCOW, August 11 RIA Novosti
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080811/115956220.html

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Monday, August 11, 2008 10:08 AM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Even more importantly, if Russia decides to keep going and invade Georgia proper, will the US come to Georgia's defense?


Unfortunately Georgia's NATO membership card got lost in the mail.

We did ship their 2,000 troops back home from Iraq on US transports and hopefully with a couple spare magazines for their shiny new M16's.

Georgia has about 18,000 troops in 5 Infantry Brigades and assorted support units. Their Air Force has a squadron of SU-25s and a handfull of 3rd rate Fighters. Russia devoted an entire Army which is organized like an American Corps with 2-4 Motorized Rifle Divisions and a Tank Division...as many as 100,000 men and probably a Wing of fighter and fighter-bombers for support.

Given today's news Russia is taking the opportunity to 'liberate' the whole country and its oil pipeline now since next year Georgia was expected to get NATO membership.

H

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Monday, August 11, 2008 11:07 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Dang, if only there were some terrorists - er, I mean mujahideen - that we could get to act as our proxies and fight those dastardly Rooskies. But according to the right, we've pretty much already killed them all...





Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Monday, August 11, 2008 11:28 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Hero:
Given today's news Russia is taking the opportunity to 'liberate' the whole country and its oil pipeline now since next year Georgia was expected to get NATO membership.

H



Yep. Starting to look like Russia wants to protect its European oil monopoly, and isn't above killing a lot of Georgians to do so. It'll be interesting to see if they can get away with such actions without the bleeding hearts screaming "NO BLOOD FOR OIL!!" Bet we won't hear a peep.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Monday, August 11, 2008 11:42 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Starting to look like Russia wants to protect its European oil monopoly, and isn't above killing a lot of Georgians to do so. It'll be interesting to see if they can get away with such actions without the bleeding hearts screaming "NO BLOOD FOR OIL!!" Bet we won't hear a peep.


I'm not a bleeding heart, but I'll say it to make ya happy- The Russian government SUCKS!!! The timing is no coincidence, obviously.

Callin' it Chrisisall

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Monday, August 11, 2008 12:12 PM

KHYRON


Quote:

Originally posted by Hero:
Given today's news Russia is taking the opportunity to 'liberate' the whole country and its oil pipeline now since next year Georgia was expected to get NATO membership.

Yeah, this seems to sum up the situation pretty well, unfortunately.

------------------------------

This isn't my signature. I have to type this every time I make a post.

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Monday, August 11, 2008 1:35 PM

OUT2THEBLACK


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
I have some suspicions.

Look at the geographical positioning of Georgia, and potential supply routes for their support of middle east allies - and tell me it does not occur to you that this particular set of events might have been "helped along" by certain someones intelligence people ?

There's little if any evidence of that, but just sayin it's awfully damned convenient.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it



Well , little evidence apart from yesterday's news :

http://www.presstv.com/Detail.aspx?id=66203§ionid=351020202

Actual 'mileage' may vary , depending upon user habits...

Here's a view that comes as no particular surprise , from a related article :

" Washington backed the 'Rose Revolution' that paved the way for Saakashvili's rise to power. For his part, Saakashvili agreed on hosting the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been designed to transport energy resources from the Caspian Basin to the Mediterranean, while bypassing Russia. "

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=66206§ionid=3510303

And , on the U.S. transport of battle-hardened Georgian troops from Iraq :

" Russian Premier Vladimir Putin said sending the Georgian troops from Iraq would not change the situation and the US is hampering the peacekeeping operation in South Ossetia. "

' It's a pity that some of our partners instead of helping are trying to get in the way, I mean the United States using its military transport aircraft to relocate Georgia's military contingent from Iraq virtually to the conflict zone, among other things," said Putin.'

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=66322§ionid=351020606

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Monday, August 11, 2008 2:28 PM

OUT2THEBLACK


Says here the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline fire , caused by a 'blast' , has been put out :

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=66325§ionid=351020204

And , not to worry , " tomorrow's " news says more Federal Reserve Notes are on the way to help the afflicted :

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=66333§ionid=351020606



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Monday, August 11, 2008 3:26 PM

FREMDFIRMA


Meh, I said suspicions, and that is what I meant - unlike wingnuts of any stripe, I never get the two confused.

To date, I've not really seen enough evidence to say this set of events was helped along by anyone, but it would explain the rather bizarre and coincidental timing, is all.

If the Georgians have any sense at all they won't try to pull off a toe to toe stand hoping the rest of the world will bail them out, the rest of the world is rather good at not keeping promises like that, explicit or implied - they'd be better off sucking them in and bleeding them white like the Mujas did in Afghanistan.

Any way you slice it though, this is gonna be ugly, sure.

And to be perhaps a bit crass, it ain't OUR fekkin problem, nor should we waste our resources on it, we're stretched thin enough as it is trying to play global dominion when we got a shitload of problems at home needing to be addressed.

We needs be solving OUR problems before worrying about anyone elses, dammit.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Monday, August 11, 2008 3:29 PM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:

And to be perhaps a bit crass, it ain't OUR fekkin problem



Yeah, but are we downwind?



Radsisall

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Monday, August 11, 2008 3:41 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Meh, I said suspicions, and that is what I meant - unlike wingnuts of any stripe, I never get the two confused.

To date, I've not really seen enough evidence to say this set of events was helped along by anyone, but it would explain the rather bizarre and coincidental timing, is all.

If the Georgians have any sense at all they won't try to pull off a toe to toe stand hoping the rest of the world will bail them out, the rest of the world is rather good at not keeping promises like that, explicit or implied - they'd be better off sucking them in and bleeding them white like the Mujas did in Afghanistan.

Any way you slice it though, this is gonna be ugly, sure.

And to be perhaps a bit crass, it ain't OUR fekkin problem, nor should we waste our resources on it, we're stretched thin enough as it is trying to play global dominion when we got a shitload of problems at home needing to be addressed.

We needs be solving OUR problems before worrying about anyone elses, dammit.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it



Which adds to the "coincidental" timing, don't you think? Russia did state quite clearly that if we insisted on putting our missile defense system in the Czech Republic, they'd have no alternative but a military one - they just didn't happen to say WHERE that military option might be exercised...

Add to that the fact that Georgia is NOT part of NATO, so there's no real obligation on our part to come to their rescue.

And add to THAT the fact that we are, as you said, stretched thin at the moment - which of course the Russians can't help but be aware of. For them, this must've looked like their perfect moment.

And you're right - the only real chance the Georgians have at this point is to try to suck the Russians in and bleed them slowly, and hope they don't have the stomach for another long, drawn out occupation.




Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Thursday, August 14, 2008 10:47 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


300 gather at UN to protest Russian forces in Georgia

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/ny-nygeor155802042aug15,0,30
40066.story




On the flip side:

Foxnews interview backfires?



12 year old Georgian girl thanks Russians for saving her family


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Friday, August 15, 2008 2:08 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Man, Russian reporters are some tough folks.

Catches a round (just a graze though) and instead of running away, jacks on a set of armor and keeps reporting.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/08/14/vo.gerogia.journalis
t.shot.gerogiastatetv

(Stupid link runs a 30 second ad first, sorry)

An american journalist team would have hauled ass at the mere sound of gunfire.

-F

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Friday, August 15, 2008 2:23 AM

JONGSSTRAW


The whole world now is stinking with the stench of Liberal Appeasement. It reeks out of all the current events of the day. Limp-wristed European-influenced IOC decision to give un-worthy China the Olympic Games (I guess Nazi Germany wasn't available this time)...what a joke!
European appeasement of Russia solely for oil supply allows Russia to go back to the good 'ole KGB USSR days. European appeasement of Russia that has prevented Georgia & Ukraine from joining NATO; whatcha gonna do now Europe? Watch all the new democracies in Eastern Europe fall back under the Iron Curtain? Their appeasement has really come back to roost right on their front door.

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Friday, August 15, 2008 2:33 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by participant:

Pattern of Exercises

perhaps American soldiers and/or Mercs (Blackwater) are on the ground ‘advising’, some ‘advising’ to their deaths.



Will McCain say where that lobby money came from? Obama take a page from the book of Donald "Dr.Stranglove" Rumsfield ?
This whole fiasco has seriously blackened the reputation and diminished the power of the US and if it were not for the ongoing Iraq mess the US would be way more respected around the world.

Here's more on the reports of mercenaries and advisers


http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2008/8/11/2572/15085
Blackwater in Georgia? Now We Can Call Them Mercs.

Reports are also out Rove Met with the Georgian President and Israel advisers took part in Attack on S. Ossetia. Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli firms hundreds of military advisers, to train them in artillery and combat tactics.

Unfortunately some of these tactics involved the bombing of civilian areas and the bombing of an area where 90% of the people held Russian passports

No doubt Russia is communist and oppressive
but the homeland of Stalin
the homeland of Georgia is the first sinner, they were aggressors bombing a civilian area
was Saakashvili so stupid as not to think Russia would respond
and Saakashvili needs his butt handed to him.

Related?
Poland, U.S. sign missile shield deal
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/15/poland.us.shield/index.
html


and now the political mud slinging
Lieberman Blasts Obama Over Georgia
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,403622,00.html




Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
I have some suspicions.

Look at the geographical positioning of Georgia, and potential supply routes for their support of middle east allies - and tell me it does not occur to you that this particular set of events might have been "helped along" by certain someones intelligence people ?

There's little if any evidence of that, but just sayin it's awfully damned convenient.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it



Oil is like the devils juice
it makes governments do insane things

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Friday, August 15, 2008 6:59 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
The whole world now is stinking with the stench of Liberal Appeasement. It reeks out of all the current events of the day. Limp-wristed European-influenced IOC decision to give un-worthy China the Olympic Games (I guess Nazi Germany wasn't available this time)...what a joke!
European appeasement of Russia solely for oil supply allows Russia to go back to the good 'ole KGB USSR days. European appeasement of Russia that has prevented Georgia & Ukraine from joining NATO; whatcha gonna do now Europe? Watch all the new democracies in Eastern Europe fall back under the Iron Curtain? Their appeasement has really come back to roost right on their front door.



Yup, and throw into that mix American (via Bush) "appeasement" of Iraq ("It's not a timeline, it's a... time horizon..."), Iran, and now both Georgia ("We're on your side!") AND Russia ("We're not taking sides!") all at the same time.





Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Friday, August 15, 2008 9:40 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It's not as cut-and-dried as you think.

Hubby grew up in communist Hungary. His mom's side of the family were villagers: farmers and miners, "common folk". In fact, his mom worked as a governness for a noble family which had honest-to-god serfs, evil overseer with whip and all.

His dad's side of the family were aspiring/ disappointed dukes and duchesses. The kind of people who had gold toilets. One half of the family was very happy with communism, the other half was not.

The Hungarian uprising was in part fomented by the VOA's constant barrage of propaganda. The people who took part in it were not only students, but also con-men, ex-nobility, and leftover fascists from WWI. Hubby recalls several "moles" in the uprising's side who were hung from lamposts and killed by razor-blade cuts. (The old fascists really knew how to make people suffer.) Many people were glad to see the Russians roll in.

---------------------------------
Any idea, no matter how much you may agree with it, can be radicalized and employed as an excuse for violence. There is no such thing as a righteous or untouchable philosophy, and when you start thinking that there is, you have become an extremist.- Finn Mac Cumhal

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Friday, August 15, 2008 12:51 PM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
The whole world now is stinking with the stench of Liberal Appeasement. It reeks out of all the current events of the day. Limp-wristed European-influenced IOC decision to give un-worthy China the Olympic Games (I guess Nazi Germany wasn't available this time)...what a joke!
European appeasement of Russia solely for oil supply allows Russia to go back to the good 'ole KGB USSR days. European appeasement of Russia that has prevented Georgia & Ukraine from joining NATO; whatcha gonna do now Europe? Watch all the new democracies in Eastern Europe fall back under the Iron Curtain? Their appeasement has really come back to roost right on their front door.

Appeasement is right, but this oil thing has become a cliché. Every time something happens in the world people blame it on oil without even bothering to think it through. Georgia is not an oil rich country. Russia is not invading Georgia for oil at least not solely or explicitly, but Russia is also not invading Georgia for the humanitarian issue they dreamed up, which Moscow couldn’t care less about. This is what we call an act for incremental increase in influence. Russia is making a veiled threat to the world.

Russia wants to maintain or re-institute, if not direct control of breakaway Russian Republics then a hegemony, which is threatened by NATO. In other words, NATO as an equal or superior military power can provide the means (membership) by which breakaway Russian Republicans like Georgia and the Ukraine can finally become independent of Russia hegemonic control. By invading Georgia, Russia is making a threat to the Ukraine to give up its bid for NATO membership and if Georgia doesn’t end up falling under total Russian control, then for Georgia to do the same. If Georgia does fall under Russian control, either by regime change or through tight political control, then Russia will control all the Pipelines into Europe and will be in a better place to dictate terms to Europe and NATO.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Friday, August 15, 2008 2:11 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
The Hungarian uprising was in part fomented by the VOA's constant barrage of propaganda. The people who took part in it were not only students, but also con-men, ex-nobility, and leftover fascists from WWI. Hubby recalls several "moles" in the uprising's side who were hung from lamposts and killed by razor-blade cuts. (The old fascists really knew how to make people suffer.) Many people were glad to see the Russians roll in.



Longing for the good old days of the Soviet Union, are we?

Russia, in whatever guise, has had imperial longings since forever. I expect that they'll use whatever pretenses they can manufacture to try and intimidate their former colonies like Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, etc. into returning to the fold.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Friday, August 15, 2008 3:05 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


I agree with most of Finn's analysis, but this

Quote:

If Georgia does fall under Russian control, either by regime change or through tight political control, then Russia will control all the Pipelines into Europe and will be in a better place to dictate terms to Europe and NATO.



says that, in the end, it really is about the oil - or at least the pipelines and control. He who controls the spice controls the universe...

Where's the Quisatz Haderach when you need him?




Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Friday, August 15, 2008 3:35 PM

RIVERLOVE


I don't know if there really is a quizinart hatrack or not, but I do know that little sis, aka Alicia Witt, turned out to be quite exceptional.

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Friday, August 15, 2008 3:45 PM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
If Georgia does fall under Russian control, either by regime change or through tight political control, then Russia will control all the Pipelines into Europe and will be in a better place to dictate terms to Europe and NATO.


ROTF, and this is NOT about oil....how exactly???

isall

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Friday, August 15, 2008 4:18 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by Riverlove:
I don't know if there really is a quizinart hatrack or not, but I do know that little sis, aka Alicia Witt, turned out to be quite exceptional.



You can say that again!




Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Friday, August 15, 2008 6:33 PM

ERIC


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:

Where's the Quisatz Haderach when you need him?



They'd just scream 'Obamanation!"


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Friday, August 15, 2008 8:17 PM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
I agree with most of Finn's analysis, but this

Quote:

If Georgia does fall under Russian control, either by regime change or through tight political control, then Russia will control all the Pipelines into Europe and will be in a better place to dictate terms to Europe and NATO.
says that, in the end, it really is about the oil - or at least the pipelines and control. He who controls the spice controls the universe...

Where's the Quisatz Haderach when you need him?

In the end, it’s about advancing Russian influence. Oil just happens to be a big factor in the economy. The desire to view this in terms of oil is a simplistic view of a far more complex agenda. The real picture here is Russian influence.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Saturday, August 16, 2008 4:26 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Finn, I know that oil is "just a part" of the whole picture - but it happens to be the MAJOR part, the OPERATIVE part. Russia is seeking to increase its sphere of influence... over WHAT? By what methods? By controlling what? OIL!

The Russians had said point-blank that if we insisted on pushing ahead with our missile-defense system in Eastern Europe - pushed up to the Russian border to somehow protect against IRANIAN nuclear missile attack - that they would be forced to respond militarily. If they simply wanted a military strike that would show the West that they were displeased, they could have hit some of the proposed installations in Eastern Europe. They did not. They chose to strike at a choke point for oil transshipment, a strategy sure to wreak the most economic havoc on us, while doing the least real damage to the facilities involved.

So, given the choices of what the Russians could do, and where they could do it, they found it most useful to try to disrupt the flow of oil, and to take control of that flow. Oil isn't the ONLY thing this conflict is about, but it's the main thing. Other factors just happened to lay out in favor of Russia on the invasion.

They ARE seeking to increase their influence, no doubt about it. Russia is trying to put pressure on the U.S. to abandon its missile-defense system in Europe and pressure Eastern Europe into more closely following Russia's desires regarding trade and dealings with the West. They're also trying to remind Georgia, Ukraine, and other former Soviet satellite states where they came from, and not to forget it.

But the main tool they're using to achieve all those ends is OIL, because that's the currency of the industrial world. If you have control to the oil, or the ability to interrupt its flow, you have the attention of the entire region, and they're all ears.

Mike

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Saturday, August 16, 2008 5:08 AM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
The Russians had said point-blank that if we insisted on pushing ahead with our missile-defense system in Eastern Europe - pushed up to the Russian border to somehow protect against IRANIAN nuclear missile attack - that they would be forced to respond militarily. If they simply wanted a military strike that would show the West that they were displeased, they could have hit some of the proposed installations in Eastern Europe. They did not. They chose to strike at a choke point for oil transshipment, a strategy sure to wreak the most economic havoc on us, while doing the least real damage to the facilities involved.

The Russian’s did not make a military strike in Eastern Europe because they are not trying to impose influence over Europe, and they probably know that's ultimately not a realistic goal. They struck Georgia because it was out of the way, and there’s greater chance that the attack will succeed without Western involvement. To say this is all about oil is missing the whole point of the invasion. Control over the pipelines in the Caucus' will increase their leverage some, but not to the extent that you are making it out to be. Your inflating the issue of oil. Oil is the scapegoat for anything any nation does. The real issue here, however, is Russian control over what it perceives to be its rightful borders, which include now sovereign nations which were once a part of the Soviet Union.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Saturday, August 16, 2008 5:37 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
Oil is the scapegoat for anything any nation does.

In fact it's such a cliche' that any nation can now attack another for oil possession or control and call "Cliche'" when cited for it as a cover.
Convenient.


isall

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