REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Khamenei, One of Most Evil People in History, is Dead

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Wednesday, March 25, 2026 18:28
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PAGE 5 of 5

Sunday, March 22, 2026 2:01 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Iran’s willingness to escalate this high-stakes war is its greatest weapon

The regime will do whatever it takes to cling on to power – including sacrificing economies of other Gulf states



As usual, I get one sentence into your malicious posts, and am forced to stop.

This time, I didn't get past the headline.

IRAN isn't the one escalating, it's Israel, backed by us.

While Iran was negotiating, Israel attacked, followed by the USA, assasinating Iran's top religious leader (and a moderate) and killling 170 schoolgirls.

Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field first. Iran retaliated in kind.

Israel attacked Iran's nuclear power plant first, Iran retaliated in kind.

Iran very clearly warned everyone that if they were attacked (as they have been multiple times) THIS TIME they would fight to the finish. Stupid Arabs, stupid Zionists, stupid Trump admin, didn't take them seriously.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Sunday, March 22, 2026 2:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Just curious, brother...

Do you manually change my signature 10 times every day when you quote reply me with something irrelevant, or do you actually have a document that is open on your computer 24/7 where you can copy and paste that?



--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

All Trumptards I know have delusions of grandeur. Yours is right in the signature.





--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Sunday, March 22, 2026 3:17 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


For the record, the president of the United States is now simultaneously claiming:
he has won the war,
is currently winning the war,
needs help to win the war, and
needs no help to win the war.
All to destroy the nuclear program he claims to have already destroyed last year.

Based on reported statements and activities as of late March 2026, the rhetoric from the White House regarding the conflict with Iran has been described as shifting and contradictory.

According to reports, President Donald Trump (in office as of Jan 20, 2025) and his administration have made varied, and at times simultaneous, claims about the status of the war initiated on Feb. 28, 2026:

• Claiming to have "Won" or "Won in many ways": Trump has stated, "We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough," and "I think the war is very complete, pretty much".

• Claiming to be "Winning" and "Ahead of schedule": The operation was described by the administration as "way ahead of schedule".

• Needing "Help" / Further Action: Despite victory claims, the president has noted, "We've got to finish the job," and his administration has been reported to be preparing to seek hundreds of billions in further funding.

• "No help" / Can end it quickly: Trump has stated he could end the conflict in "two seconds".

Nuclear Program Claims
Regarding the nuclear program, President Trump has asserted that the U.S. "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, despite reports suggesting he continues to argue the need to destroy it.

These statements reflect a broader, rapid shift in the administration's messaging, which has ranged from suggesting the war is "nearly complete" to threatening to "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, March 22, 2026 3:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Love it.

You dumb lefties don't know what the hell is going on now.

What are we supposed to bitch about when we have no idea what we're supposed to bitch about!!!!???



--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Sunday, March 22, 2026 5:42 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Love it.

You dumb lefties don't know what the hell is going on now.

What are we supposed to bitch about when we have no idea what we're supposed to bitch about!!!!???



--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Do you remember Vietnam? The Lefties bitched about that, too. Nixon's Vice President Spiro Agnew, who resigned because he was taking bribes and cheating on his income taxes, complained about the complainers as "Nattering nabobs of negativism". Spiro said the US would have won in Vietnam if it had not been for the Lefties. What a stupid asshole that guy was, but he was also a Trumptard before there was Trump.

An Israeli military official told Newsweek the war may end “where the Iranian regime believes that they won and they’re not lying.”

Tom O'Connor | March 22, 2026

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-now-sees-irans-survival-as-a-real-poss
ibility-11710344


. . . there has been little to indicate the Islamic Republic's imminent capitulation despite suffering serious military setbacks and the loss of senior leadership.

And while Iran's future remains uncertain, Israeli officials tell Newsweek the conflict could very well end with their enemy government surviving, creating frustrating narratives due to asymmetrical objectives and a slowing tempo of high-profile wins since the opening phases of the conflict.

"It's important to accept that this Iranian regime, it's a country 80 times the size of Israel, essentially half the size of Europe, an enormous country that built a big security establishment over decades, and right now they're in a place where they would consider victory if they survive," an Israeli military official told Newsweek.

They added: "And right now, the media is taking up that narrative and saying, 'If they survived, that Israel and America lost,' where I actually think that the fact that that's where it is right now, a country 80 times the size of Israel that wanted to destroy us is considering if they're able to survive and not be destroyed, that they beat us, at least for us, from the Israeli perspective, I think it shows a lot."

The official also asserted that "we never put out as a military target to overthrow the regime," but rather "to remove an existential threat, and that will also set the conditions for regime change if the Iranian people choose to do that."

The result could see both parties walk away claiming victory.

"I think that there is a scenario in which this war ends in a situation where the Iranian regime believes that they won and they're not lying, they're being honest with themselves. And Israel and the U.S. believe they won, and they're also not lying, they're being honest with themselves," the Israeli military official said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, March 22, 2026 6:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Love it.

You dumb lefties don't know what the hell is going on now.

What are we supposed to bitch about when we have no idea what we're supposed to bitch about!!!!???



--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Do you remember Vietnam?



Nope. Before my time, I'm afraid.

But I can imagine you hanging out a helicopter with your machine gun and mowing down women and children though.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Sunday, March 22, 2026 7:05 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Nope. Before my time, I'm afraid.

But I can imagine you hanging out a helicopter with your machine gun and mowing down women and children though.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Just like the Iran War is now, the Vietnam War was once upon a time the most important war in history, until the Republicans decided that the US had won, declared victory, left Vietnam, and ignored it ever since. It turns out that a Communist Vietnamese government is NOT the big deal that Nixon claimed it would be. I might add that Trump learned from Nixon that Truth/Honesty/Law-Abidingness is meaningless to a certain class of Americans I call Trumptards.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, March 22, 2026 7:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Nope. Before my time, I'm afraid.

But I can imagine you hanging out a helicopter with your machine gun and mowing down women and children though.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Just like the Iran War is now, the Vietnam War was once upon a time the most important war in history, until the Republicans decided that the US had won, declared victory, left Vietnam, and ignored it ever since.



Oh yeah? What's going on with Afghanistan right now?

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Monday, March 23, 2026 6:37 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Donald Trump and his minions are having a meltdown. On Saturday, Trump lashed out at the New York Times for an article saying the obvious — that many of his original war goals, whatever they may have been, remain unaccomplished. Just an hour later, he posted a threat to commit massive war crimes, saying that if Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours — that is, today — he will order U.S. forces to begin bombing civilian power plants. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/us/politics/trump-iran-offramp.html
Quote:

Ever since President Trump began what he now delicately calls his “excursion” into Iran, Washington has been consumed by the question of when he would call it a day — even if many of his war goals remain unaccomplished. On Friday evening, as he headed to Florida, Mr. Trump seemed to be designing that much-discussed exit. But he clearly has not yet decided whether to take it. And there is mounting evidence — average gas price approaching $4 a gallon, infrastructure in ruins across the Persian Gulf, a decimated Iranian theocracy digging in and American allies at first rebuffing and now struggling with demands to patrol hostile waters — that the repercussions of Mr. Trump’s excursion may outlast his interest in it.

Why the desperation? The answer is obvious. It’s turning out not just that regime change — if that was really the goal — is hard to engineer, but also that the world is a lot more dependent on the Strait of Hormuz than Trump and co. seem to have realized. And what is becoming increasingly clear is that this dependence extends well beyond oil and natural gas.

In addition to oil and gas, the Gulf region is a key global source of fertilizer. It produces about a third of the world’s helium — and helium isn’t just for party balloons, it’s key to production of semiconductors and has important medical uses. And the Gulf is a choke point for pharmaceuticals, with many key ingredients normally shipped through Hormuz and many final products normally being flown to their destinations via Dubai and other Gulf airports.

So are we learning that the Persian Gulf is a uniquely crucial choke point for the world economy? I don’t think so.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, March 23, 2026 7:18 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nobody is having a meltdown.

Except for you. We've been witness to your unraveling for over a decade now.


P.S. We know you just plagiarized Paul Krugman again...

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-hyperglobalization-meets-chaos

Idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Monday, March 23, 2026 9:43 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I can't believe you guys are arguing about which party "won" or "lost" any particular pointless war. The smart thing to do is not start them in the first place.

And BTW, if a President is handed a burning- bag- of- dogshit of a war, the best thing to do is cut losses: declare victory and go home.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Monday, March 23, 2026 10:02 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nobody is having a meltdown.

Except for you. We've been witness to your unraveling for over a decade now.


P.S. We know you just plagiarized Paul Krugman again...

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-hyperglobalization-meets-chaos

Idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Trump obviously melted down. This morning was supposed to be the start of him committing new and bigger war crimes. Then he turned back for 5 days, and maybe longer, because he is fucked up in the head: Trump Announces A Sort Of Cease Fire, and, The US Strategic Goal Seems To Be "Mowing The Grass"
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-us-strategic-goal-seems-to-
be


As a leader and as a businessman, Trump has always been fucked up in the head, but Trumptards are blind to that in themselves and in their leadership, which is why life is such an unending struggle for them, 6ix. You spending today smoking and watching porn is truly fucked up, 6ix. Your software project and home improvement projects are a weak diversion from facing the reality that you are wasting your life. Your only hope for a real purpose in life is for Trump to turn it around for you with invasions of foreign countries and purges of aliens, just like Hitler gave the Germans a meaningful life by his invasions and purges of Jews. At least Hitler was giving the Germans more living space or "Lebensraum". Trump can't even claim that. Only he is getting more space for Trump-brand golf and hotel expansion. Hitler never lowered himself to Trump-levels of pettiness and greed.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, March 23, 2026 11:28 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I can't believe you guys are arguing about which party "won" or "lost" any particular pointless war. The smart thing to do is not start them in the first place.

And BTW, if a President is handed a burning- bag- of- dogshit of a war, the best thing to do is cut losses: declare victory and go home.

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

I hope someday you realize what a nitwit you are, Signym.

Another day in America’s self-immolation as a Great Power - Adventures in Fantasy Diplomacy

Trump says he's negotiating with Iran. Iran says he isn't. Who are you gonna believe?

It’s Monday morning. Donald Trump has, at least for the time being, called off plans to bomb Iran’s civilian infrastructure. He has done so because, according to him, highly productive negotiations are underway involving the government of Iran, an invisible six-foot white rabbit, and his Canadian girlfriend.

What I just said is not strictly true, or it’s not all true. Trump did not say anything about the invisible rabbit or the Canadian, but the gist of it is true. He said that there are highly productive talks underway. And shortly afterwards, the Iranian government and Iranian state media said, no, they aren’t. This is not happening.

I’m not going to say that Iranian state media is necessarily a credible source, but the odds are that they are, in fact, telling the truth and the President of the United States is either lying or fantasizing or both. There’s really no reason at all to believe that anything like what he said is happening is in fact happening.

Aside from the fact that Trump has not exactly been truthful on a lot of things, there are three important reasons to believe he might be making this stuff up.

First, he put himself in a very bad spot with his threat to commit a massive war crime if Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz. and must be looking for a way out. Another president at another time might say that on careful consideration, We have recalibrated the policy or something like that. Trump doesn’t do that. Trump is always winning, never admits that he’s had a setback, never admits that he’s changed his mind.

So saying that, oh, the Iranians have come to the table, probably big, strong Iranians with tears in their eyes, but anyway, that the Iranians have come to the table and that’s why we’re not doing what I said we would do is a very Trumpian out.

Second, Why would the Iranians be making a deal at this point? We can talk a lot about how the war is going, but it’s pretty clear that as the Iranians are likely to see it, they’re winning. I mean, they’re not winning militarily, but that was never on the cards. They have successfully turned what was supposed to be a lightning decapitation of their government into a protracted contest in relative ability to bear pain and all indications are that the Iranians are nowhere near cracking and all indications are that the United States, although obviously we’re not losing thousands of people, and we are having our whole life disrupted, but the American public really doesn’t like higher gas prices, does not believe Trump. The clock is ticking for Trump on this in a way that it is apparently not for the Iranian regime. So Iran has the upper hand here. And very hard to see why they would want to make a deal until they basically humiliate us substantially more.

Finally, consider possible motives. Imagine that you were somebody close to Trump, somebody close enough to actually have an influence on his decisions, as well as inside knowledge. Here’s what you could have done, really, just between last night and now. You could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures at very high prices, Brent was over $112 over the weekend, then bought them back immediately after Trump announced triumphal progress, but before the Iranians said that it is not happening. And you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit.

To say that insider trading might be driving U.S. policy would have been outrageous. in the past. Who thinks that that’s beyond the realm of possibility now?
So all of this could be happening.

Last point to make here. Think about how much America’s position in the world has been weakened, not just by apparent failure to subdue a fourth-rate power, but by the fact that everybody now knows that you cannot trust any promises the United States makes, you cannot count on the United States carrying through with promises, or with threats, and that the default assumption should be that anything that this administration says is a lie.

That is a really, really bad thing. Power and influence in the world are not simply a matter of missiles and bombs, although we seem to be running low on those, too. It’s very much a matter of people taking seriously what you say and what you promise and what you threaten. But we are not ruled by serious people.

Have a great day.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/adventures-in-fantasy-diplomacy

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, March 23, 2026 12:33 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I can't believe you guys are arguing about which party "won" or "lost" any particular pointless war.



Who has been posting for over 4 years in the Russian/Ukraine thread?

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Monday, March 23, 2026 12:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nobody is having a meltdown.

Except for you. We've been witness to your unraveling for over a decade now.


P.S. We know you just plagiarized Paul Krugman again...

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-hyperglobalization-meets-chaos

Idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Trump obviously melted down. This morning was supposed to be the start of him committing new and bigger war crimes. Then he turned back for 5 days, and maybe longer, because he is fucked up in the head: Trump Announces A Sort Of Cease Fire, and, The US Strategic Goal Seems To Be "Mowing The Grass"
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-us-strategic-goal-seems-to-
be




You, nor Phillip or any of your "elites" and "experts" have any idea what Trump is doing.

That's why you're all throwing even bigger temper tantrums than usual.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Monday, March 23, 2026 2:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I can't believe you guys are arguing about which party "won" or "lost" any particular pointless war.



Who has been posting for over 4 years in the Russian/Ukraine thread?

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.



SECOND.

But I'm referring to Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Somalia, Iraq (twice!), Afghanistan, Syria, Lybia, and (now) Iran. If you're going to get into a dick- measuring contest, don't do it over "how stoopid can my Fearless Leader be?".

*****

I will say, tho, that Iran isn't pointless. I believe this is now all about Russian and Chinese maritime shipping. There are many choke points on sea trade:

The Panama Canal connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans,
The Suez Canal that connects the Red Sea and the Mediterranean,
Straits of Molucca between SE Asia and Indonesia,
The Straits of Hormuz connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian sea (leading ultimately to the Pacific Ocean),
The Bosporus and Dardenelles connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean,
The Gibralter Straits connecting the Mediterranean and the Atlantic ocean,
The Great Belt between Denmark and Sweden

Trump was trying to regime-change Iran which would give him control over Iranian oil and the Straits of Hormuz.




----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Monday, March 23, 2026 8:54 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Overall I thought this was a balanced and insightful discussion.

The Duran channel
Title: Jim Jatras: Iran War Ultimatums and Retaliation

Jim brought up two points I hadn't heard before. The first is ... all of Trump's Truth Social posts driving the oil price up and down by $20/bbl ... how much you want to bet there's insider trading going on in the Trump family?

More importantly, Jim described the Mideast as the Crown Jewel of our imperial holdings. It is THE area that allows us to dominate oil and gas importing (most of them) nations and props up our petrodollar. Without it, the USA can't maintain its ambition for world hegemony and becomes just another nation among nations. For the globalists, financiers, and neocons keeping a grip on the Mideast is existential.

So while Iran can't quit, we can't accede to Iran's terms either.


-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 7:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

The first is ... all of Trump's Truth Social posts driving the oil price up and down by $20/bbl ... how much you want to bet there's insider trading going on in the Trump family?

Treason in the Futures Markets

People close to Trump are trading based on national secrets

Paul Krugman

Mar 24, 2026

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/treason-in-the-futures-markets



When officers of a company or people close to them exploit confidential information for personal financial gain, that’s insider trading — which is illegal. But we have another word for situations in which people with access to confidential information regarding national security — such as plans to bomb or not to bomb another country — exploit that information for profit. That word is “treason.”

Why is profiting from insider information about national security decisions effectively a form of treason? First, it’s hard to think of a more fundamental principle for officials we entrust with important decisions, especially those that involve national security, that they or people they know should not be allowed to exploit their positions for personal gain.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 7:50 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Israel, US Strike Gas Facilities In Iran's Isfahan, Possibly Triggering Retaliation Against Gulf


Trump and Netanyahu are deliberately escalating the war ... and the damage to world oil and gas supplies. Is this their way of choking off China, at the expense of Europe, Britsin, the global south, Japan, S Korea, and Australia?

Maybe the idea is to leave the USA as "the last man standing" among western nations?

-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 12:57 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Israel would be delighted if Trump bombed Iran forever and ever. But Trump realized too late that is bad for the November 2026 election. Personally, I'm profiting mightily, which is true of everyone who produces fuel in America. Bombs away, Trump! Destroy the GOP's election chance! https://days.to/until/election-day-in-us

Can the Iran war even be won?

Shifting goals and asymmetric leverage make a clean victory elusive — for all countries involved.

By Caitlin Dewey / Mar 24, 2026 at 6:03 AM

https://www.vox.com/today-explained-newsletter/481592/iran-war-victory

It’s okay; you can laugh. There is indeed something farcical, albeit grim, about the purported negotiations between the US and Iran.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump claimed the two countries had made “very good” progress toward ending the war. Hours later, Iran’s foreign ministry denied that any such conversations had ever occurred. Trump then clarified that his envoys had talked to other Iranian officials but did not name any names. (The word “clarify” is admittedly doing lots of work in that sentence.)

Regardless of who is or isn’t speaking to whom, Trump does appear interested in ending the war he started — or, at least, reassuring markets to that effect. That begs the obvious follow-up question: Did Trump get what he wanted from this? Is the US, in fact, “winning” the conflict?

That’s a messy question, in any war — but especially this one. Trump has moved the goalposts so many times, it’s hard to keep track of what the score is. So, I turned to several of my colleagues who cover world news for Vox and asked them how they’re evaluating the war. Who is winning and who is losing… if anyone?

Zack Beauchamp, a senior correspondent at Vox:

In tactical terms, Iran is the obvious loser of this war: Its senior leadership has been assassinated, and its military assets decimated, with minimal casualties on either the US or Israeli side so far. Under normal circumstances, this would be what total defeat looks like.

But the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been extraordinarily effective in putting pressure on the United States, seemingly bringing the Trump administration to the negotiating table. If the US backs down under economic coercion, Iran will have just proven its ability to hold the global economy hostage and get away with it. That means it would end the conflict in a stronger political position than where it started, despite its overwhelming battlefield defeats — which is what victory looks like.

This would represent a catastrophic failure of planning and foresight by the US-Israel coalition, almost certainly traceable back to Trump himself. The president launched the war with no obvious endgame and has constantly shifted objectives, thus proving that all the tactical might in the world cannot make up for a complete lack of strategic direction.

Joshua Keating, a senior correspondent at Vox:

If Donald Trump has a political superpower, it’s his ability to declare victory in a particular crisis and move on to another one, regardless of the facts on the ground.

Again and again, as his foreign policy has gotten more aggressive and adventurous, analysts like me — primed from the experience of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine — have warned that Trump was risking quagmire and blowback. He’s consistently defied those predictions.

This time around, however, he doesn’t seem to be able to summon his superpower. It may be that the experience in Venezuela fueled his confidence that regime change on his terms would be easy to pull off. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also changed the global economic reality in a way that would make it hard for even this president to call it a victory. And the US is fighting alongside an ally — Israel — with the incentive to keep this war going for as long as possible.

Trump appears to be searching for something he can call victory. But Iran — despite the punishment it has absorbed, including the death of a large swathe of its senior leaders — seems stubbornly unwilling to give it to him.

Bryan Walsh, a senior editorial director at Vox:

The Iran conflict has demonstrated just how asymmetric modern warfare has become. On one side, you have the United States and Israel making use of frontier military technology, including AI, to utterly devastate Iran’s military, slaughter its leadership, and take command of the skies — all within a few days.

On the other side, you have Iran using cheap drones to force the US and Israel to exhaust their expensive interceptor systems in an attempt to protect a vast swathe of space. It doesn’t matter if Iran loses most of its drones and missiles with every strike; if a few get through and hit a US base, or a Dubai hotel, or a Qatar natural gas facility, Tehran gets the win. As in past asymmetric conflicts, Iran only has to get lucky once; the US and Israel have to be lucky always.

But, for all the drones and the AI targeting, the conflict also illustrates a very old rule of war: Location matters. Or, as Napoleon would put it, “The policies of all powers are inherent in their geography.” Iran’s location gives it huge leverage over the Persian Gulf that bears its name and the narrow strait through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes — or did, before Tehran leveraged the threat of force to close it.

Geography is fixed; even if the US manages to reopen the strait through force or negotiation, the Iranians will still be there. And now, they, and the rest of the world, know just how potent a weapon they have.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 3:03 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The War with Iran May Already be Lost

A war launched without a defined end state, sold through metrics and bravado, and blind to an enemy that measures time in generations rather than news cycles, is not a path to victory but a slow-motion admission of strategic failure.

By Robert Bruce Adolph | March 24, 2026

https://sofrep.com/news/the-war-with-iran-may-already-be-lost/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-war-with-iran-may-already-be-
lost/ar-AA1ZjauU


With special thanks to Lieutenant Colonel (retired) Timothy Grimmett.

If wars were won by bombastic press conferences, the White House should already be planning another military parade in our capital’s streets. In America’s latest war of choice, President Trump’s styled Secretary of “War” is emerging as the head cheerleader for our misadventure in Iran. Mr. Hegseth has already mistakenly defined what constitutes victory — the destruction of various portions of the Iranian Navy and military production facilities. Unfortunately, his definition is flawed. Despite possessing some military experience as a junior officer, he has shown that he is completely out of his depth. For most intents and purposes, the war with Iran might have been lost before the first missile was launched.

Some of the lessons that Mr. Hegseth should have learned by now:

Operational excellence is not a guarantee of strategic success — The best military on the planet cannot win a war if the national strategic objectives selected by the National Command Authority are faulty. This fact was proven in both Afghanistan and Iraq, which like Iran, were wars of choice and not necessity. Does Mr. Hegseth grasp the gap between his definition of victory and that of his boss?

Mr. Trump has demanded “unconditional surrender” of Iran — That choice could cost many lives. America demanded unconditional surrender of both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. The word “unconditional” suggests that there will be no negotiated settlement. The only means of achieving that objective in Germany and Japan was first a land invasion of the “Father Land” followed by the deployment of atomic bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Is this where we are heading?

The best bosses remain always open to bad news — If the boss always demands good news, good news is all that his subordinates will present to him. Mr. Hegseth only wants to focus on the number of strikes; the number of aircraft involved; and the number of targets destroyed. These figures no doubt please this Oval Office. Tragically, war by the numbers was a loser in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The numbers say nothing about an enemy’s will to resist. The senior uniformed staff in the Pentagon all know this fact. A smarter press corps would be asking what is the US strategy if Iran’s military is destroyed and the mullahs simply refuse to surrender?

Know your enemy — Mr. Hegseth also lacks a fundamental understanding of his opponent. He desperately needs a briefing on the 680CE Battle of Karbala because it is the foundational, emotional, and ideological cornerstone of Shia Islam, transforming it from a political faction into a distinct religious identity centered on martyrdom, justice, and resistance against oppression. The clerical leadership’s default position is death before surrender.

If that isn’t bad enough…

Air strikes often harden the resistance of your adversary — Every senior American military commander knows that bombing alone cannot force an enemy to give up. In fact, strikes from the air are proven to do the reverse based on our conventional non-nuclear bombing experience in WWII, and the protracted “arc light” bombing campaign in Vietnam.

One other thing — Mr. Hegseth recently stated that “no quarter” and “no mercy” is to be given in the current conflict. These statements are contrary to both US and international law — something to think hard about. More to the point, why would a regime consider any form of surrender, if there is no promise of mercy or quarter. This Pentagon chief’s understanding of war appears to be of the junior varsity variety.

It may take only one side to start a war, but it always demands two to end it — Iran’s willingness to continue battling both Israeli and US forces regardless of losses, again, was a foreseeable consequence by America’s intelligence agencies, assuming anyone was listening to the experts. Trump and Hegseth are viewing time as though they are looking at their watches, Iran’s leadership is looking at a calendar. Time is on the side of Tehran.

As every sailor knows, if you fail to chart a course, all winds are foul — Mr. Trump, Mr. Hegseth and Mr. Rubio can’t seem to agree on the conflict’s objectives. Unconditional surrender, for example, cannot be achieved by air power. Nor can air power alone compel the regime to give up its nuclear ambitions. Better makeup and camera angles won’t result in successful Pentagon war-fighting strategies. I would only remind all concerned that America won every battle in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. All three conflicts ended in strategic defeats. The White House selected objectives in these wars were — like what we are seeing today with Iran — amorphous.

The enemy always gets a vote — Even though America and Israel possess overwhelming military might, that alone cannot force capitulation. The Iranians have successfully shut the Strait of Hormuz; maintained attacks on the affiliated Gulf States; struck targets in Israel; appointed replacements for their dead military and political-religious leadership; encouraged proxies to join the battle — Hezbollah in Lebanon; and have sworn to continue the fight. All these actions and many more were perfectly predictable by American intelligence agencies, which is why past US chief executives wisely chose to avoid utilizing the military option.

Finally, a national war fighting strategy that lacks an achievable end state is no strategy at all — Mr. Hegseth, like his failed predecessors McNamara and Rumsfeld, will eventually learn some lessons the hard way, but lots of blood, treasure, and American prestige is being squandered in the meantime. At the estimated current cost of one billion dollars a day, and without a serious reconsideration of objectives, including a defined feasible end state, the war with Iran may already be a strategic loss.

The only current winner I can see is Israel, although both China and Russia will become longer term beneficiaries.

** A different version of this commentary first appeared in The Steady State on Substack and Medium.
https://steadystate1.substack.com/p/the-war-with-iran-may-already-be
https://medium.com/@adolwulfe/the-war-with-iran-may-already-be-lost-dc9f2db8a791

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 360 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 3:07 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
The War with Iran May Already be Lost



Shut the fuck up faggot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 3:22 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
The War with Iran May Already be Lost



Shut the fuck up faggot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

The Dept of War has $trillions worth of weaponry, but it can't pacify one backward country. The Dept of War couldn't handle Afghanistan, and it can't handle Iran. I blame the Trumptards who are in the military. These guys cannot run their own lives worth a damn, so it is no surprise that even with $trillions of dollars they are floundering around. 6ix, you are a perfect example of a Trumptard. Your day consists of smoking cigarettes and watching porn. You'd be suitable for making decisions about military strategy in Iran for Trump.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 3:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK




--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 5:08 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Typical Trump: announces an energy infrastructure cease fire and then the USA and Israel attack the very next day. Why would anyone ever negotiate with him? You can't believe a word he says.

"Boots on the ground" appear to be in the cards.



Quote:



. . .

Then I saw this X-post by the IntelFrog:

Quote:

A significant movement is underway from US Army, Navy and Air Force bases in CONUS to the Middle East comprised of at least 35 C-17 flights since March 12th, with 11 more flights on the way.

Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA
8-Unknown
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA [JBLM]
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA
1-MacDill AFB, FL
1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ

Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan
4 -King Hussein Int’l Airport, Jordan


https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/2036151943152935073

When you Google the military units located at these airfields in the US, a pattern begins to emerge (the following information is derived from a Google AI search):

Hunter Army Airfield (IATA: SVN, ICAO: KSVN) is located in Savannah, Georgia, and is a military airfield and subordinate installation to Fort Stewart, located in Hinesville, Georgia — about 45 miles to the southwest. What could the C-17 be picking up? Cargo, helicopters or personnel? Important to note that Hunter is home to some of the US military’s most elite aviation forces:

1st Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment — not an aviation unit itself, but the Rangers are based at Hunter and work closely with the 160th SOAR

3rd Battalion, 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Airborne) — the legendary “Night Stalkers,” flying highly modified MH-60 Black Hawks and MH-47 Chinooks on classified special operations missions worldwide.

15th Air Support Operations Squadron (USAF) — Air Force unit embedded with Army ground forces to coordinate close air support

2nd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment — not a flying unit, but the Rangers at JBLM are closely integrated with the 160th SOAR in rapid-raid and direct-action mission sets 1st Special Forces Group — the primary Army Special Forces group for the Pacific theater, also at JBLM, relying on the 160th SOAR for aviation support 22nd Special Tactics Squadron (USAF) — Air Force special operations combat controllers and para-rescuemen embedded at McChord Field, supporting the full joint special operations enterprise ...

is an amalgamation of Fort Lewis and McChord Air Force Base, which merged on February 1, 2010, as a result of 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Commission recommendations. JBLM is the only Army power projection base west of the Rocky Mountains in the Continental United States. Key units at this base include:

The 4th Battalion, 160th SOAR is listed as a major unit at JBLM. Like the 3rd Battalion at Hunter Army Airfield, the 4th Battalion is part of the legendary Night Stalkers — the Army’s elite special operations aviation regiment that provides aviation support to special operations forces worldwide. Flying highly modified MH-60 and MH-47 variants with advanced navigation and survivability systems, the Night Stalkers operate under the motto “Night Stalkers Don’t Quit” and support the full range of classified special operations missions. JBLM’s 4th Battalion supports Pacific-theater special operations requirements.

Fort Campbell, KY: Fort Campbell and Campbell Army Airfield represent arguably the most aviation-dense installation in the entire US Army — the spiritual home of Army rotary-wing aviation and the epicenter of special operations aviation worldwide. Fort Campbell is the regimental home of the 160th SOAR, the most elite rotary-wing aviation unit in the world. Key units include:

1st Battalion, 160th SOAR (Airborne): 1st Battalion is located at Fort Campbell, KY and is equipped with MH-6 and AH-6 Little Bird light assault and attack helicopters and MH-60 Black Hawk assault and attack helicopters. 1st Battalion is the primary support battalion for Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), meaning it directly supports the Army’s most classified and sensitive direct-action units including Delta Force and SEAL Team Six (DEVGRU).

2nd Battalion, 160th SOAR (Airborne): 2nd Battalion is located at Fort Campbell, KY and is equipped with MH-47 Chinook heavy assault helicopters, MH-60 Black Hawk assault helicopters, and MQ-1C Gray Eagle unmanned aircraft systems. 160th SOAR The MH-47G Chinook is the regiment’s workhorse for long-range infiltration and exfiltration of large special operations teams, featuring aerial refueling capability, terrain-following radar, advanced navigation systems, and extreme environmental modifications for Arctic, desert, and maritime operations. The 2nd Battalion’s ability to refuel in flight makes it capable of missions of virtually unlimited range.

Fort Bragg/Pope Field is unlike any of the previous installations — it is not primarily a rotary-wing aviation base, but rather the beating heart of the entire US joint airborne and special operations enterprise, with aviation assets drawn from multiple services and commands. Notable ground units with deep aviation dependencies at this base include:

82nd Airborne Division — the entire division’s rapid deployment concept depends on Air Force strategic airlift (C-17s and C-130s) flowing through Pope Field and Army rotary-wing aviation at Simmons

1st Special Forces Command (Airborne) — oversees all active Army Special Forces Groups, relying on both 160th SOAR and AFSOC for their aviation support

75th Ranger Regiment (HQ) — the regiment’s headquarters is at Fort Bragg, with battalions at Fort Benning/Moore, Georgia; Fort Lewis, Washington; and Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia

3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne) — Africa-focused Special Forces Group based at Fort Bragg, relying on AFSOC and 160th SOAR support

Delta Force (1st SFOD-D) — the Army’s Tier 1 direct-action unit, based at Fort Bragg’s classified compound (“The Farm”), wholly dependent on the Night Stalkers and JSOC aviation for operational support

USASOAC (US Army Special Operations Aviation Command) — the command headquarters overseeing all Army special operations aviation, including the 160th SOAR, is at Fort Bragg

Naval Air Station Oceana, VA: The airfield is formally known as Apollo Soucek Field, named after Lieutenant (later Admiral) Apollo Soucek, a Navy test pilot who set the world altitude record in 1930 flying a Curtiss biplane to 43,166 feet. It has four active runways, giving it the capacity to handle the enormous volume of flight operations generated by its 17-plus squadrons simultaneously. NAS Oceana is supplemented by the Dam Neck Annex — a separate, highly secured installation a few miles away, home to the Naval Special Warfare Development Group (DEVGRU/SEAL Team Six), various schoolhouses, and non-flying commands.

Understanding the distinction between DEVGRU at Dam Neck and the SEAL teams at Little Creek is important. The conventional SEAL teams (Teams 2, 4, 8, 10) are Tier 2 special operations forces — enormously capable by any standard, but operating under theater special operations commands on assigned missions. They deploy on predictable cycles, supporting combatant commanders with direct action, special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, and counter-terrorism.

DEVGRU is Tier 1 — it answers directly to JSOC, takes missions directly from the President and National Command Authority through JSOC, and deploys in response to the most sensitive national priority targets. Its operators are drawn exclusively from the existing SEAL community after a grueling selection process called Green Team, with roughly a 50% attrition rate.

I do not know what is being planned, but the intense activity of at least 35 C-17 missions at these bases indicates a major Special Operations activity is in the works. The activity started on March 12 — one day before the 31st MEU was deployed. Coincidence? I don’t think so. If I can figure this out using only open source data, I have no doubt that the Iranians, the Russians and the Chinese are monitoring this activity as well… They also have good intelligence analysts and, unlike me, access to classified intelligence from their own sources.



https://sonar21.com/looks-like-donald-trump-is-serious-about-puting-us
-boots-on-the-ground-in-iran
/



-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026 7:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surge As Israeli TV Reports US Seeks 'One Month Ceasefire'; Tehran Refuses Talks With 'Backstabbers'


I guess Trump admin insiders haven't lined their pockets with enough insider trading.


-----------

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger

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Wednesday, March 25, 2026 6:40 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Phillips P. OBrien
Mar 25, 2026

As long as the Iranians control access to the Persian Gulf/Straits of Hormuz and the IRGC leadership exercises authority over the Iranian military, they hold a very strong set of cards in any negotiations. The only way for the US Government to change that equation is to forcibly open trade into and out of the Gulf (more on that below) or to put in place an Iranian government that is willing to do so for them.

So that is the dilemma the US faces. The US must escalate or admit that the Iranians are in a very strong position in any talks. Trump seems to understand this, which is why he is desperately and publicly trying to create the narrative that he has already won. He wants out of this war, but if he cannot convince himself that people will believe that he has won, we might still have escalation.

More at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/midweek-update-3-for-now-this-l
ooks


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, March 25, 2026 7:01 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Oil industry confronted with its ‘worst nightmare.’ Trump’s former defense secretary sees few options

The sheer scale of the chaos the war has brought to the industry poked some holes in the face of the conference itself: Some of the world’s top oil producers who are regulars at the annual Houston gathering were notable in their absence. Exxon Mobil CEO and Chair Darren Woods, whose company has major oil and gas operations in the Gulf, and Amin Nasser, CEO of national oil company Saudi Aramco, skipped this year to address the disruptions. Top executives from the state-run oil companies in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates appeared virtually.

“We are outraged by this attack against us,” Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said of recent strikes by Iranian projectiles that damaged a major refinery there. “This is an attack against not only the Gulf, but it is an attack that is holding the world’s economy hostage.”

https://attentiontotheunseen.com/2026/03/24/oil-industry-confronted-wi
th-its-worst-nightmare-trumps-former-defense-secretary-sees-few-options
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, March 25, 2026 4:03 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The War With Iran Is Exposing Big Problems for the Military

What we have learned about the strengths and weaknesses of the American way of war

By Eliot A. Cohen** | March 25, 2026, 2:08 PM ET

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/iran-war-reveals-american-we
akness/686532
/

In 1986, the British historian Correlli Barnett published The Audit of War, a brutal critique of Britain’s industrial performance in World War II. One can learn from his controversial effort: The United States is going through its own audit of war right now as we close in on a month of conflict in the Persian Gulf. Free download of The Audit of War: The Illusion and Reality of Britain as a Great Nation (Pride and Fall sequence Book 2) by Correlli Barnett https://annas-archive.gl/search?q=Correlli+Barnett+The+Audit+of+War

No other country could have projected force from its homeland on the scale that America so far has—and not just in a couple of large raids, but in a sustained campaign conducted over a vast expanse of land and sea. Though the intelligence story of this war is, as ever, in the shadows, there is no question that American intelligence-gathering and analysis, especially but not exclusively from technical sources such as satellite imagery and signal intercepts, have been extraordinary.

At the high end, the performance of advanced American-military technology such as the F-35 fighter bombers flown by the United States and its ally Israel has been stunning. Not a single F-35 has been lost. These airplanes, which are flying computers and sensors as much as they are bomb droppers, have remarkable abilities to coordinate with other aircraft, identify threats, and escape detection. So, too, do B-2 bombers and many other remarkable airborne platforms.

The professionalism of the American military has been on display from top to bottom. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, and the head of Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, have been models of clarity, calm, and decisiveness. The young men and women flying, maintaining, and fixing the airplanes and manning defenses have displayed competence and grit.

All good news. But there is plenty of bad news as well, for which the armed services and previous administrations as well as the current one are responsible. The stockpiles of advanced munitions (particularly interceptor missiles) are radically inadequate and will remain so for some time. In the Middle East conflicts of 2025, most estimates have it that nearly a quarter of the stocks of the Army’s high-altitude interceptor, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile, were consumed; a comparable number may have been used up in the current conflict. Many other high-end precision-strike systems have already been consumed at greater than the yearly rate of replenishment scheduled for fiscal year 2026.

The relatively modest size of the naval task force in the Persian Gulf is also notable. In the 1980s, during a previous conflict with Iran, the U.S. Navy deployed some 30 warships in the Gulf; today it has scarcely a dozen just outside it. In 1986, the Navy had 214 surface combatants (cruisers, destroyers, and frigates); in 2026 it has only half as many, at a time when the Chinese navy is arguably a greater threat than the Soviet navy ever was.

One particularly significant shortage is of effective minor warships. In 1986, the fleet included 113 frigates, ships smaller than destroyers but vital for missions such as escorting convoys. Now there are none, their place having been taken by some two dozen littoral combat ships, which have proved mechanically unreliable, underequipped for high-threat environments, and unsuited for key missions. Worse: The attempt to replace them, with an Italian-designed frigate, has collapsed because of modifications that made the proposed warship wildly expensive. The Navy is now considering modifying a class of Coast Guard cutters that would lack basic armaments such as vertical tubes for launching a variety of anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles.

The dearth of mine-hunting vessels is stunning as well. The Navy had 21 mine-warfare ships in 1986. Today it has four aging mine-countermeasure vessels, due for retirement, with unproven modules for deployment on the littoral combat ships, which were not designed principally for mine warfare. And yet, the Navy first encountered Iranian mines in the Persian Gulf nearly 40 years ago.

There is more bad news as well, including the apparent vulnerability of American radars (as many as 10) to precision hits from Iranian drones—a threat that should have been defeated with the kind of technologies that Ukraine deploys at scale every day.

The underlying explanations for these deficiencies go well beyond the Trump administration. Some of it is the result of the illusion of peace following the Cold War, and the willful neglect of the defense industrial base, which has been well documented. But the conflict has also exposed a fundamental flaw in the modern American way of war.

The United States for many years has exhibited a deep-rooted bias toward quality over quantity. The same tendency, to a lesser extent, was on display at the beginning of World War II, when the Navy preferred to build large fleet destroyers instead of the vessels it needed to defeat German submarines. As a result, even Fleet Admiral Ernest J. King, the wartime chief of naval operations, concluded that “the Navy did not obtain adequate means to deal with the U-boat until late in 1943.” The solution lay in shifting production to smaller destroyer escorts, the ancestors of contemporary frigates—smaller, slower, cheaper, and quicker to build. More than 500 were built for the Navy alone during that war. In the current case, the Navy now has so few vessels that the loss of even one ultra-valuable major warship would be a humiliation; the loss of several, a catastrophe. But history suggests that in naval wars, ships sink.

The post–Cold War military assumption seems to be that the United States operates on offense, not defense. The Air Force has been reluctant to spend $5 million to $30 million on hardened shelters for aircraft that cost an order or two of magnitude more than that. When I would fly into Al Udeid, our massive air base in Qatar, in the early 2000s, I was always stunned to see airplanes of all types—fighters, bombers, refuelers—lined up wingtip to wingtip, just as they were at Clark Air Base in the Philippines on December 7, 1941. Again, changes are under way—too little, though hopefully not too late.

For similar reasons, drones and, more important, defenses against them have, until very recently, been relatively low on the priority list of the armed forces. They exist, and some are very fine as pieces of technology, but the military has purchased too few, and procured too little by way of stockpiles behind them.

Which leads to the third assumption: quick, low-casualty wars. The 1991 Gulf War was a stunning victory for the United States military, which has colored its assumptions about what conventional war—as opposed to counterinsurgency, a mission unwanted and disliked—should look like. In wars lasting a month or so with relatively low casualty rates, managing massive ammunition consumption, assembling and training replacements, and renewing equipment losses during a war, not after it, are simply not issues.

The uniformed leaders of the armed services over the past three decades bear much responsibility for these shortcomings, because we rely on them to be our experts on warfare, but final accountability lies with civilian leadership. And the Trump administration has yet to prove that it understands just how perilous this situation is. It has talked of a $200 billion supplemental appropriation for the military, but has yet to spell out what this will buy. Rather than bluster and braggadocio, the Department of Defense needs a well-conceived and thoughtfully presented multiyear program to build a military fit for large-scale and sustained war. Congress needs to take its role just as seriously, and demonstrate its willingness to endorse deliberate inefficiency—by, for example, authorizing the building of two factories where one might do in order to maintain capacity to expand production of all kinds of munitions and platforms in a crisis.

American and Israeli operations over Iran have been, on the whole, remarkably effective and efficient. Whether they will bring about the desired ends (assuming both countries have a clear idea of what those ends should be) is uncertain. But the lessons drawn even from success should be sobering. A war against a more capable opponent, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, could be far, far more painful than this one. John Paul Jones famously declared that he intended to sail into harm’s way, and then he did, winning an epic sea fight but losing his ship, the Bonhomme Richard. His successors must be robustly equipped to dare, and if necessary suffer losses, in the same way.

** Eliot Cohen is a contributing writer at The Atlantic. He is a professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University, author of the forthcoming book The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics, and co-host of the Shield of the Republic podcast. Cohen is also the author of The Hollow Crown, Supreme Command, Conquered Into Liberty, The Big Stick, and other works on military history and national-security policy. He created the strategic-studies program at Johns Hopkins SAIS and served as the school’s ninth dean. He has also served as the counselor of the Department of State and in other positions in the U.S. Department of Defense and the intelligence community.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Wednesday, March 25, 2026 6:28 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Iran has established an informal "$2 million toll" on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, enforced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), leading to a rise in traffic for vessels opting to pay for safe passage through a specific corridor. This fee has prompted at least 20 ships, some "zombie" tankers, to navigate the rerouted passage.

Key Details on the Strait of Hormuz Toll System

• The "Tehran Toll Booth": The IRGC is directing traffic through a new corridor between Iranian islands (Qeshm and Larak), allowing transit for those paying up to $2 million, according to reports in Lloyd's List Intelligence. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603233156

• Increased Traffic: Following a severe drop in transit due to conflict, the number of ships paying for this passage has started increasing.

• Alternative to Risks: This payment acts as a “protection" fee, ensuring safety against attacks. It is being paid because insurance costs have skyrocketed after recent maritime attacks, making the $2 million fee a "bargain" compared to total risks, say analysts at Fortune.

• "Zombie" Tankers: At least 20 ships, including some operating under deceptive identities (zombie tankers), have taken this route, notes Lloyd's List Intelligence.

• Impact on Oil Trade: While total traffic remains lower than the pre-war norm (about 20 million barrels per day), some oil flow is moving again, with analysts in bne IntelliNews noting around 8 million barrels per day are moving, including through this new corridor.

This situation has been characterized as a deliberate "shakedown," with the blockade itself generating the revenue that allows the IRGC to reopen the strait on its own terms.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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