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Kornacki: No Signs Of A Blue Wave In 2026, Democrats Are Less Popular Than Republicans Right Now

On Date October 7, 2025

NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down the latest polling for the Democratic Party and compares it to the numbers leading up to the "blue wave" during President Donald Trump's first midterm election.


GABE GUTIERREZ, NBC NEWS: Democrats are counting on next year's midterms to win back at least some control of Congress, but the party has some major political headwinds. NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki joins me now, and he's at the big board. Steve, why should Democrats be nervous at this point?

STEVE KORNACKI, NBC NEWS: It's a little interesting right now, Gabe, about a year out from the midterms. You look, Donald Trump's approval ratings are certainly nothing to write home about, and this is what Democrats are looking at in terms of a challenge to take back the House. The current balance of power with those vacancies, if they are filled the way we expect them to be, it would be 220 seats for the Republicans.

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There it is, 220 for the Republicans, 215 for the Democrats. And that would mean Democrats really would only need a net gain of three seats to get the House. Now, keep in mind Republicans are trying to redraw maps in a number of states right now to boost that total, so there may be more of a pad here for Republicans than meets the eye when you just look at this balance of power.

So that's one challenge for Democrats, but of course Democrats are hoping that this goes like the midterm did in Trump's first term, and if it did this would be nothing because Democrats gained 40 seats. It was a blue wave in Trump's midterm. So the thing about that midterm the first time around was you could see it coming from a long way away.

October 2017, more than a year out, the generic ballot asking folks which party do you want to see control Congress, Democrats were leading on average in the generic ballot by nearly eight points. And this was the level they basically maintained through all of 2018, right up to Election Day, right up to the blue wave when they gained 40 seats and flipped the House. So where is the generic ballot right now?

Well, Democrats lead it, but not by nearly as much. It's a three-point average lead for Democrats on the generic ballot now. So again, this is not terrible news for Democrats, but there was clarity even at this point in 2018 that something was coming.

This number suggests you're not at that point right now. One of the reasons Democrats may not be at the point has to do with this, the image of each party. Again, looking back here at October of 2017, if you looked at all the polling back then, neither party was popular, but one party was a lot less popular than the other.

Republicans in Trump's first term, 27 percent average favorable score at this point. Democrats were up at 39 percent. There was a pretty clear imbalance there.

It worked to the favor of Democrats. What do you have right now when you run these same numbers? Well, again, neither one's popular, but the Republicans are sitting at 41 favorable, the Democrats at 35 favorable, the Democrats are less popular than the Republicans now.

And that's one of the things, when you look at midterm elections, the opposition party counts on getting a bit of a boost, just from being sort of a protest vehicle for anyone who's got issues with the White House. Democrats, though, with numbers like that, you've got to worry a little bit. Are people wanting to send a message to them as well.

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Kornacki provided further analysis on "The Politics Desk" at NBC News:

The blue wave that interrupted President Donald Trump’s first term could be seen coming from far away. This time around, the signs are not so clear.

By the fall of 2017, Trump’s first year in office, Democrats had opened a sizable advantage in the generic congressional ballot. On this day in 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, the Democratic lead was 7.8 points. It’s a margin that would more or less hold over the ensuing year, culminating in a 40-seat gain in the 2018 midterms that gave Democrats control of the House.

Today, by contrast, the RCP average has Democrats up by only 3 points in the generic ballot. This comes even as Trump’s overall job approval rating sits in the low- to mid-40s — similar to his first term — and as he continues to accrue negative ratings for his handling of the economy and inflation.

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