REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The reality about the U.S. budget problems

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Wednesday, January 9, 2013 13:01
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 1166
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Friday, January 4, 2013 8:25 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

America is getting older and healthcare costs are rising. That means we'll need to spend more money in the future on Social Security and Medicare. There's simply no way around that unless we're willing to immiserate our elderly, and that's not going to happen. Not only is it politically inconceivable, but the truth is that even Republicans don't want to do it, no matter how tough a game they talk. Like it or not, this means that over the next 20 or 30 years, spending on the elderly is going to go up by three or four percent of GDP.

This is where we stand. Spending in general has been well controlled for the past 30 years, averaging about 21 percent of GDP. With good management, that might go down a point or two, but certainly no more. Probably the lowest we can realistically hope for is about 19-20 percent of GDP. Add in the increased spending on the elderly, and federal outlays are going to be in the neighborhood of 23-24 percent of GDP by around 2030.

Those are simply the facts. Even under a scenario where we control spending pretty tightly, spending is going to go up to about 24 percent of GDP. There's really no politically feasible way of keeping it any lower. Anyone who cares about the deficit, then, needs to understand that in the long run, taxes need to go up to about 24 percent of GDP too.

We don't have a spending problem. We have an aging problem and a taxing problem.



http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/we-dont-have-spending-pr
oblem-we-have-aging-problem

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Friday, January 4, 2013 11:33 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Lose the evil Bush-era tax cuts, and you got plenty. See how simple it is.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Saturday, January 5, 2013 2:23 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Your over-simplified misinterpretation of the article is so that you can dismiss it, right?

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, January 5, 2013 4:51 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Your over-simplified misinterpretation of the article is so that you can dismiss it, right?



Oversimplification seems to be the trend around here. Lots of "all we have to do is..." based on little or no real understanding of the issue.

Then again, most folks here agree Bush was evil. http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=53930
Seems like they'd be happy to do away with one of his landmark pieces of legislation.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Saturday, January 5, 2013 7:56 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Oversimplification seems to be the trend around here. Lots of "all we have to do is..." based on little or no real understanding of the issue.

If you say so. I can only think of your own example though. I'm guessing it was something Niki said, to have got you this annoyed.

Quote:

Then again, most folks here agree Bush was evil. http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=53930
Seems like they'd be happy to do away with one of his landmark pieces of legislation.


You're feeding me scraps here, but I take it that you think liberals are hypocritical for despising Bush and yet not wanting desperately to remove all of his tax cuts?

I think like most conservatives, you don't understand liberals very well.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, January 5, 2013 8:13 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Hey, whadIsay? Not fair, Geezer hates ALL liberals--tho' admittedly I seem to get under his skin a bit more than some...

He doesn't understand liberals at ALL--not to mention economic facts--you know that by now. Isn' that what you guys call a "strawman" argument?

Beyond that, if it weren't disastrous for the country and our slow, small climb out of Bush's deep hole, I for one wouldn't mind doing away with them all. As it stands, they've been made permanent, and that means the revenue derived from those over $400,000 doesn't help much.

More likely, I suppose, I'd like to have seen taxes raised on those above $400,000 TEMPORARILY, which would give the opportunity to raise them on more in future...and as a side result, of course, create yet another major kidnapping of the country by the Republicans, unfortunately. I see no logical answer, in other words.

Nonetheless his answer, doing away with them completely, wouldn't solve anything, and would do incredible harm to the economy/recovery/country.

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Saturday, January 5, 2013 4:30 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
You're feeding me scraps here, but I take it that you think liberals are hypocritical for despising Bush and yet not wanting desperately to remove all of his tax cuts?



Pretty much.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Saturday, January 5, 2013 4:46 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
Hey, whadIsay? Not fair, Geezer hates ALL liberals--tho' admittedly I seem to get under his skin a bit more than some...

He doesn't understand liberals at ALL--not to mention economic facts--you know that by now. Isn' that what you guys call a "strawman" argument?



Niki, I don't HATE anyone, I just disgree with some positions folks have. And in case you haven't noticed, I tend to agree with liberals on any number of issues, such as reproductive rights, gender equality, freedom of speech, etc.

I suspect that a lot of liberals (and conservatives) do actually HATE their political opponents, and are more interested in making points for their side than actually resolving the problems our country faces. That's why I seldom if ever vote for any candidate of the ruling parties.

My problem with you is that you find blogs and editorials that fit your preconceptions and, without critically reviewing them for truth or logic, post them up, in excruciating length, as Holy Writ. The recent one suggesting that the military end wars comes to mind.

It's also interesting that you don't attack the points I raise with logical counter-arguments, but instead attack me directly.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Saturday, January 5, 2013 4:48 PM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
You're feeding me scraps here, but I take it that you think liberals are hypocritical for despising Bush and yet not wanting desperately to remove all of his tax cuts?



Pretty much.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."



Well, you see Grandpa, and you may want to sit down for this, what with your heart condition and all, but that's one of the things about Liberals, we don't tend to think in absolutes like that.




Excuse me while I soak in all these sweet, sweet conservative tears.

"We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." -- Rick "Frothy" Santorum

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Sunday, January 6, 2013 4:04 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
You're feeding me scraps here, but I take it that you think liberals are hypocritical for despising Bush and yet not wanting desperately to remove all of his tax cuts?



Pretty much.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."



Reasons Democrats don't immediately and enthusiastically want to eliminate all the Bush tax cuts:

1. It would be politically very damaging. The Republicans would hammer them for raising everyone's taxes.
2. It would hurt the economic recovery. That again would be politically very damaging.
3. It would hurt the middle class at a time that they're already being squeezed.

Having said all that, many if not most liberals would go back in time and stop ALL the Bush tax cuts being enacted in the first place, if they could. I would, and I would expect the country's finances to be in a lot better shape as a result.

A final point, you do realise that a tax cut on the lower tax rates is a tax cut for everyone, including the rich, and the super rich, don't you?

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, January 6, 2013 4:24 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

I tend to agree with liberals on any number of issues, such as reproductive rights, gender equality, freedom of speech, etc.

You agree with liberals when liberal positions and libertarian positions coincide. That doesn't make you left-leaning in any way, since you're already a professing libertarian.

Quote:

My problem with you is that you find blogs and editorials that fit your preconceptions and, without critically reviewing them for truth or logic, post them up

That right-wing chain email that you posted up Geezer, did you critically review that for truth and logic before you posted it?

Niki can post what she likes, Geezer, and people can enjoy or avoid it as they like. I don't know you feel such a driving need to combat her at every turn... Oh wait, yes I do.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, January 6, 2013 6:30 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


I don't hate anyone either, but your come-backs tend to be rather personally depreciating rather than logical points, which is what gave me that impression. Ergo, I feel pretty personally attacked, as well. That impression has come from just what KPO stated, "I don't know you feel such a driving need to combat her at every turn..."

I never put up anything as "holy writ", and you know that perfectly well. I always say "I agree with this" or "I think this is well put", etc., etc., indicating that it's how I feel about something, not some undeniable truth. And I usually put things up in the interest of possibly starting a discussion when I start a thread, knowing it's something on which there will be differing opinions.

And as KPO said, and many have said to one another from time to time, you are under no obligation to ever read any of my posts. I have, yes, relegated you pretty much to the "mocking" group, given the frequent tone of your posts--which as I've said before, surprised me because my impression of you was different originally. I see you putting up snarks like here more than I'm aware of serious debate points, and attempting to debate you has been as fruitless as trying to communicate with Rap or Wulf.

KPO also more fully explained why I feel as I do about the tax cuts, and agreed with what I said before:
Quote:

many if not most liberals would go back in time and stop ALL the Bush tax cuts being enacted in the first place, if they could. I would, and I would expect the country's finances to be in a lot better shape as a result.

That's exactly how I feel and what I believe.

To snark that liberals don't want to do away with them now IS a strawman, given surely you're smart enough to know how disastrous that would be to the economy, if done at this point. It's no more than a snark; didn't you say something about logical counter-points?

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Monday, January 7, 2013 3:01 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
You agree with liberals when liberal positions and libertarian positions coincide. That doesn't make you left-leaning in any way, since you're already a professing libertarian.



Never said I did. Said I don't hate liberals, and that I agree with them on some issues.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Monday, January 7, 2013 3:16 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
I don't hate anyone either, but your come-backs tend to be rather personally depreciating rather than logical points, which is what gave me that impression. Ergo, I feel pretty personally attacked, as well.



Oh. Like I might when I read this?

"Hey, whadIsay? Not fair, Geezer hates ALL liberals--tho' admittedly I seem to get under his skin a bit more than some...

He doesn't understand liberals at ALL--not to mention economic facts--you know that by now. Isn' that what you guys call a "strawman" argument?"

But back to the topic.

Not sure how KPO posting an article that says tax revenues need to go up, and me suggesting a way that tax revenues can go up, means I don't understand economics. If taxes have to go up, then obviously some of the Bush-era tax cuts going away would be one way to do it.

YOU posted an article stating that the current deficit problems were mainly caused by the Bush-era tax cuts. Once again, if you want government revenue to go up, you're going to have to raise taxes, and it seems the Bush tax cuts should be on the table.

If you want to discuss the idea that reversing some of the Bush tax cuts would be good or bad for the economy, in light of suggestions in the articles you and KPO cited that revenue needs to rise, I'm all for it.

If you just want to insult me some more, let's just take it as read.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Monday, January 7, 2013 6:55 AM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
I don't hate anyone either, but your come-backs tend to be rather personally depreciating rather than logical points, which is what gave me that impression. Ergo, I feel pretty personally attacked, as well.



Oh. Like I might when I read this?

"Hey, whadIsay? Not fair, Geezer hates ALL liberals--tho' admittedly I seem to get under his skin a bit more than some...

He doesn't understand liberals at ALL--not to mention economic facts--you know that by now. Isn' that what you guys call a "strawman" argument?"



You put out a straw man argument - and then whine that being called on it is picking on you?

Wah.




Excuse me while I soak in all these sweet, sweet conservative tears.

"We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." -- Rick "Frothy" Santorum

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Monday, January 7, 2013 11:07 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Once again, if you want government revenue to go up, you're going to have to raise taxes, and it seems the Bush tax cuts should be on the table.

Who says they're not on the table? There's only one side that takes tax rises off the table Geezer, and it's not the one you're attacking. To the extent that tax rises are politically impossible in your country, you should blame the Republican party, and the conservative movement. And if you're serious about the problem, you should spend your energy resisting them.

But it's interesting, even in situations where as a libertarian/fiscal conservative you agree with the left, you're still more interested in sniping at liberals - the people you agree with - than you are in taking on conservatives, the real problem.

Damn liberals! They're always the problem, even when they're not!

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, January 7, 2013 7:40 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


"With good management, that might go down a point or two, but certainly no more. Probably the lowest we can realistically hope for is about 19-20 percent of GDP."

And yet ... 10 countries with the highest percent GDP on healthcare costs ...

It's not an aging problem, it's a problem of too much money going to profit rather than healthcare.

Luxembourg
7.8%

Norway
9.6%

Austria
11%

Canada
11.3%

Denmark
11.5%

Germany
11.6%

Switzerland
11.6%

France
11.8%

Netherlands
12%

United States
17.4%

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/03/29/countries-that-spend-
most-on-health-care/#ixzz2HMKDYi9I


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Tuesday, January 8, 2013 7:08 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Yer almost amusing sometimes Geez. Almost.
Quote:

me suggesting a way that tax revenues can go up

Right. That's all you were doing:
Quote:

Lose the evil Bush-era tax cuts, and you got plenty. See how simple it is.

... most folks here agree Bush was evil. Seems like they'd be happy to do away with one of his landmark pieces of legislation.

Kpo: "I take it that you think liberals are hypocritical for despising Bush and yet not wanting desperately to remove all of his tax cuts?

Geezer: Pretty much.


Ridiculous. Your intent was obvious and you know it. It wasn't a "suggestion" in the slightest.

And as both KPO and I said, we would happily not have ever HAD the Bush tax cuts. And no, you don't understand liberals, as the above being only one example that clearly shows that. Maybe you don't "hate" all liberals, but you sure dislike 'em, you make that obvious again and again. Nor do you understand economics, if you were serious (which obviously you were not), if you think for a minute that doing away with all the Bush tax cuts right now would be a GOOD thing for the economy. In none of those cases did I lie or mischaracterize you.

KPO is also correct in that raising taxes is only off the table for Republicans. Doing it the RIGHT way would be fine with us. It's only Republicans who made a big deal about Norquist and his stupid "vow", and who are flatly against taxing in ANY way. Personally, I think we need to focus on cutting the military budget. I heard Barney Frank discussing this last night, and he spoke truth:
Quote:

Historically, defense spending has spiked during wars (such as the Korean War, Vietnam, and the Cold War) but were all followed by a downsize. But after 9/11, defense spending soared to unprecedented levels, and the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars took spending to another level.

Barney: “It was only until after 9/11 that George Bush and the neo-conservatives–Cheney and the others–were very successful in getting terrorism to be the substitute as the existential threat for Nazism and Communism. It clearly is not.” Frank added, “I think it took a while for the American people to realize this, but they now understand–there is no threat of that sort. That doesn’t mean we should be weak, but it means we could get by with a lot less…"


But that's neither here nor there. You obviously have no interest in a serious debate, your remarks from the very start make your intent crystal clear.

ETA: You also put up a link to a thread as supposed proof that "everyone" thinks Bush was evil. Strangely, nowhere in that thread does anyone SAY that...we decried the activities of him and his administration, but nobody called him "evil".

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Wednesday, January 9, 2013 3:42 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
Yer almost amusing sometimes Geez. Almost.



Okay, so personal attacks it is.




"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Wednesday, January 9, 2013 7:59 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Like it wasn't, from you, before?!? That's a laugh!

I mock those worth mocking when they write something mock-able. If you consider calling you amusing an "attack", hooo, boy, you better get out of RWED!

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Wednesday, January 9, 2013 8:44 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Yeah, I think you should work on thickening your skin Geezer.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Wednesday, January 9, 2013 1:01 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


1Kiki, I just came across this graph:



It's not personal. It's just war.

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