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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
Electoral College 2020
Sunday, February 9, 2020 2:44 PM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Sunday, February 9, 2020 3:37 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted.
Quote: Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%.
Quote: Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. 13 States. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population. Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980. Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980.
Quote:6. 40 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980.
Quote: Group 7. 57 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 8. 31 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. 12 States. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left.
Quote: States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963.
Quote: Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Sunday, February 9, 2020 3:38 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted. Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%. Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.
Quote: Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980.
Quote: 6. 40 22 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980.
Quote: Group 7. 57 21 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 8. 31 15 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left. States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963. Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Thursday, February 13, 2020 8:36 PM
Thursday, February 13, 2020 8:48 PM
1KIKI
Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.
Thursday, February 13, 2020 9:13 PM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter. The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10). Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win. 2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022. So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections. Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?
Friday, February 14, 2020 3:32 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: You have far more energy to write this than I have to read it at the moment! (I'm still wheezing, coughing, and dragging anchor from when I had the flu 5 weeks ago.) I was going to do a slightly different calculation, not about actual elections but about the electoral college in general, which was to compare House representation v electors, just to see which states are over-represented or underrepresented in terms of electors, and by how much. It doesn't make a difference to what I think, btw, it's just a matter of curiosity. I think the electoral college is fine and basically democratic. What's NOT fine imo is the 'winner-take-all' assignment of votes for all but 2 states. That strikes me as deeply undemocratic. I hope to get back to your posts in a bit.
Saturday, February 15, 2020 4:33 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter. The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10). Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win. 2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022. So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections. Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?I put NH as a strong favorite for Trump to flip in the predictions thread already. I haven't considered MN yet. I'll have to look into that one. Should probably mention that Virginia is also in play because of Democrats seemingly losing their mind there and trying to destroy the 2nd Amendment. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Saturday, February 15, 2020 5:20 PM
Saturday, February 15, 2020 5:25 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I don't think I understand what you mean.
Sunday, February 16, 2020 2:35 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I don't think I understand what you mean.Oh, my sideline interest was simply how much does the addition of 2 senators to each state for total electors change the calculus from proportional to population, with the House of Representatives being the base numbers for proportional-to-population to not-proportional.
Sunday, February 16, 2020 4:26 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter. The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10). Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win. 2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022. So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections. Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?I put NH as a strong favorite for Trump to flip in the predictions thread already. I haven't considered MN yet. I'll have to look into that one. Should probably mention that Virginia is also in play because of Democrats seemingly losing their mind there and trying to destroy the 2nd Amendment. Do Right, Be Right. :)I'm not betting on VA flipping. Or being a critical State for Trump. That's the D.C. suburbs. Swamp creatures and DEEP STATE galore.
Quote:Unfortunately for the president, though, his current approval numbers are terrible in Minnesota (40/56) and New Hampshire (39/58). He’s doing a bit better, though hardly well, in Nevada (42/53) and Maine (44/53). Of all the potential target states, the one in which he’s doing best in terms of current popularity is Virginia, where he’s at 45/51. His campaign might actually target Virginia, since it’s pretty convenient to the White House.
Quote:Marsden supports red flag laws that allow courts the ability to seize guns from citizens temporarily if someone believes they are a danger to themselves or others. "What people are upset with, and I can absolutely see their point of view, is that you have your guns removed from you, and then you have to go through the court process, spend money for a lawyer, to prove your innocence in order to get your rightfully owned guns back from the government," said Walter. "It's a guilty-before-innocent law."
Sunday, February 16, 2020 4:47 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I am still not certain I understand your focus of curiosity.
Sunday, February 16, 2020 4:54 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I am still not certain I understand your focus of curiosity. A LOT of people were whining about the electoral college ... as if it wasn't in the Constitution and should just be ignored ... I digress ... I'm just curious how much of a difference in per-vote weight it makes, compared to a population-proportional vote. It's just a matter of curiosity. But I actually agree with the electoral college. Whatever its original intent, I believe it keeps cities from running the entire country. Having a strictly popular-vote election could end up as a form of legislated slavery, serving city dwellers. Everyone needs to have their voice heard. Even in so-called fly-over country. Even the so-called basket of deplorables.
Sunday, February 16, 2020 5:05 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So, does that mean my #2?
Tuesday, February 18, 2020 6:03 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So, does that mean my #2?
Tuesday, February 18, 2020 7:08 PM
Wednesday, February 19, 2020 5:20 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: Since I don't know what the 'Federation of Large Cities' is, I can't answer that.
Wednesday, February 19, 2020 6:20 PM
Thursday, February 20, 2020 3:57 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1KIKI: I wonder about the specifics and also the intended use. How large does something need to be to counted? Do you mean total metropolitan (of or constituting a large city or urbanized area, including adjacent suburbs and towns) population, or urban centers only? As a category, how does this lump together such diverse places as Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, and New York into something meaningful?
Monday, July 20, 2020 6:11 PM
Monday, July 20, 2020 9:59 PM
Monday, July 20, 2020 10:01 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: 450+ Electoral votes for Trump. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 3:23 PM
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 8:38 PM
Monday, August 10, 2020 7:11 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So, how this data works moving forward in 2020: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted. Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%. Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.TX 9% in 2016 Quote: Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.GA 5.1% in 2016 Quote: Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980. FL 1.2% in 2016 Groups 1-5: 235 Electors, 25 States. I'll insert a Group 10 here - the States which went to Trump but trended Dem. OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump. WI - 10 EV. 0.77% IA - 6 EV. 9.4% PA - 20 EV 0.71% MI - 16 EV 0.22% If Trump retains OH and IA, that adds up to 259 Electors. Another 11 Electoral Votes wins him another 4 years. Quote: 6. 40 22 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980. CO 4.9%, VA 5.3% Quote: Group 7. 57 21 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.NM 8.2%, MN 1.51%, NV 2.4% Quote: Group 8. 31 15 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.OR 11%, NH 0.37%, ME 2.96% Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left. States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963. Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Monday, August 10, 2020 10:13 PM
Thursday, September 10, 2020 2:40 PM
Friday, September 11, 2020 3:20 PM
Tuesday, September 29, 2020 2:15 PM
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 6:17 PM
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 8:57 PM
REAVERFAN
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I think I just heard Cory Lewandowski predict that NV, NH, and MN will vote for Trump.
Thursday, October 1, 2020 3:24 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: And also that Obiden will not win any state which went to Trump in 2016. So, I wonder, with that sort of template in mind, Which States do Democrats or Liberals think Obiden will win? Which States That Trump won in 2016 will Obiden win in 2020? There must be some, otherwise Trump is automatically the winner.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020 3:12 PM
Thursday, October 8, 2020 5:00 PM
Friday, October 9, 2020 3:50 PM
Monday, October 12, 2020 4:28 PM
Monday, October 12, 2020 4:41 PM
CAPTAINCRUNCH
... stay crunchy...
Tuesday, October 13, 2020 2:28 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Kevin McCullough predicts 330 for Trump. [img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej5E5aZWsAE22EX?format=jpg&name=large [/img] https://dougsanto.com/2020/10/11/2020-election-prediction-from-kevin-mccullough/ https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/kevin-mccullough-i-predicted-obama-in-2006-then-2012-and-i-predicted-within-a-half-state-the-exact-map-of-2016-this-election-isnt-hard/ https://welovetrump.com/2020/10/12/man-who-got-every-election-map-correct-since-2006-releases-his-2020-map/
Tuesday, October 13, 2020 3:51 PM
Thursday, October 15, 2020 2:01 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Kevin McCullough predicts 330 for Trump. [img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej5E5aZWsAE22EX?format=jpg&name=large [/img]
Monday, October 19, 2020 3:29 PM
Monday, October 19, 2020 6:21 PM
Quote:Originally posted by reaverfan:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 12:32 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: About 7 weeks to go for in-person voting. Libtards have already started sending in fraudulent ballots - and will continue for 10-20 weeks. I'm not tracking all of the polls for the battleground States, but so far the model in the 3rd post of this thread seems to be holding up. OH, WI, IA, PA, MI are considered the Battleground States. FL could be in danger of being stolen. OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump. WI - 10 EV. 0.77% IA - 6 EV. 9.4% PA - 20 EV 0.71% MI - 16 EV 0.22% Trump needs 35 EV from these, assuming all other states remain the same as 2016. FL has 29 EV. OH has went to the winner in every election since 1963. The second best streak is FL with every election since 1999. No other state has gone with the winner in every election since 1999.
Saturday, October 31, 2020 1:14 PM
Saturday, October 31, 2020 9:07 PM
Sunday, November 1, 2020 1:48 AM
Sunday, November 1, 2020 2:23 AM
Sunday, November 1, 2020 8:42 AM
Monday, November 2, 2020 5:44 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Do keep in mind that they're shooting themselves in the foot by counting ballots early and then announcing any states where Trump is behind. There were always going to be far more Republicans voting in person on election day. Genius idea to sound the horns and let people who don't want Biden to be president know that they need to get their asses off the couch and vote on Tuesday. Pure genius. Do Right, Be Right. :)
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