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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
Trump's Budget
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 7:49 AM
SECOND
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Thursday, August 15, 2019 8:10 PM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere. Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link: https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm? This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP. I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.
Thursday, August 15, 2019 9:18 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy. Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history. Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Friday, August 16, 2019 5:54 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy. Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history. Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work. You are ignoring inflation. If you look at percent change it becomes very obvious that the growth of GDP is below average during the Trump administration: GDP Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oDVt
Friday, August 16, 2019 9:40 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: GDP Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oDVt That graph does not seem to display what you think it does. Trump's period seems to remain above the average, unlike Obamination's sporadic jumps and dips.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019 12:35 PM
Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:11 PM
Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:13 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP. I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing. So I will lay out some more data, for reference. This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP. Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further. Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP. CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit. Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt. For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP. For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:
Quote:Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there. Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on. Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:23 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: In case there were any remaining doubts about whether Trump's tax cut would pay for itself, it hasn't. The massive 27 percent deficit increase from last year is only expected to worsen as Trump's $1.5 trillion tax plan from a year-and-a-half ago fails to "pay for itself" as the White House previously claimed. www.newsweek.com/conservatives-criticize-republican-federal-deficit-trump-spending-record-congress-debt-tax-cuts-1454024
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: You should try reading the news sometime. Even the Deep State admits that Trump's Tax Reform will be saving more than a $Trillion in the next 15 years. The projections of Dem disaster was already in the Budgets from Obama, no new or further updates were needed. But Trump has vastly reduced those. JewelStaiteFan, show me that fake news story with the $1 Trillion savings. I got stories that say there are no savings:
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: You should try reading the news sometime. Even the Deep State admits that Trump's Tax Reform will be saving more than a $Trillion in the next 15 years. The projections of Dem disaster was already in the Budgets from Obama, no new or further updates were needed. But Trump has vastly reduced those.
Thursday, August 22, 2019 7:49 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Relying upon ultra-retarded journalists to cypher your Maths for you is not a winning strategy.
Tuesday, August 27, 2019 7:53 AM
Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:21 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report. And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion. Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T. I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are. 21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.
Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:53 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report. And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion. Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T. I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are. 21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.BEA released a new report today. The numbers are still goofy. They don't add up, again. There is no correction to the bad data from last month, and the bad data continues this month. This seems to represent a break in the data, a change from one set of continuous data, now to some different set of data which is incompatible with the past data. I have not yet found any explanation or technical note to reconcile these streams of data. The new report says CY Q2 is $240.3 B - which is also FY Q3. Up to a level of $21.34 T. and the last Quarter (FY Q2) is still reported as $201.0 B Next GDP report is 26 September.
Friday, August 30, 2019 4:05 PM
Friday, August 30, 2019 4:23 PM
1KIKI
Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period.
Thursday, September 5, 2019 7:47 PM
Thursday, September 5, 2019 8:52 PM
Wednesday, September 11, 2019 8:54 PM
Thursday, September 12, 2019 4:16 PM
Thursday, September 12, 2019 8:21 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. But what does that have to do with the soaring Federal deficit? (a product of BOTH parties)
Thursday, September 26, 2019 8:46 PM
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 8:04 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Updated with the most recent CBO Update. It was not available Friday after CoB, it was available Saturday evening, and it was dated Friday 7 June.
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 8:11 PM
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 8:15 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55699 Correction: It seems only the mobile version of the linky is dead, but the online version has a valid linky, which links to here: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-10/55699-CBO-MBR.pdf
Wednesday, October 9, 2019 8:14 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
Saturday, October 12, 2019 3:45 PM
Thursday, October 17, 2019 7:56 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: The Monthly Treasury Statement is normally released on the 8th business day of each month, which was 10 October. Now it is 2 days later, and still no release. Not sure why.
Friday, October 25, 2019 3:08 PM
Saturday, October 26, 2019 4:13 PM
Thursday, October 31, 2019 8:31 PM
Wednesday, November 13, 2019 8:05 PM
Monday, November 18, 2019 7:47 PM
Sunday, December 1, 2019 3:57 PM
Saturday, December 28, 2019 4:49 PM
Saturday, December 28, 2019 4:52 PM
Sunday, January 19, 2020 4:54 PM
Wednesday, January 29, 2020 9:13 PM
Thursday, January 30, 2020 12:42 AM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Thursday, January 30, 2020 7:25 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Yup. And it would have been 3 Trillion had Hillary won. There's no putting the shit back in that horse, I'm afraid. Smoke if you got 'em.
Friday, January 31, 2020 4:55 PM
Wednesday, February 12, 2020 6:04 PM
Wednesday, February 12, 2020 8:29 PM
Thursday, February 27, 2020 8:54 PM
Thursday, March 12, 2020 8:41 PM
Friday, October 2, 2020 2:18 PM
Friday, October 2, 2020 2:24 PM
Friday, October 2, 2020 3:05 PM
Saturday, October 10, 2020 12:42 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Updated with the MTS for March-August 2020. I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later. I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data. The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB. https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/ https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.pdf CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly. This looks like an interesting resource linky: https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9 https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center Apr 2018 CBO estimate: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2 These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements. I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress. The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle. Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far. Figures in Billions. CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements: Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374 Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291 S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083 Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462 Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447 S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984 Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960 %Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927 %Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056 %Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008 Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223 Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423 S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200 Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047 Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053 S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007 Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 %Pjt9 %Pjt8 1 %Pjt7 14 %Pjt6 -4 notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685 notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274 notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589 CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept Display stabilization row: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Saturday, October 10, 2020 1:42 PM
REAVERFAN
Sunday, October 11, 2020 11:03 AM
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