Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
And Cook to D209 R196.
And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.

---

Now RCP is D205 R199.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199

Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.

Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO - looks like NJ, MT are new)

So that is:

D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D214 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R199 D44 R50 RCP

With 11 days remaining.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.

---

As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202


So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.

3 weeks to go.

---

Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.

---

I notice 538 also has 190 solid blue on their spectrum.

Dems only won 194 last time, while riding Hilliary's coattails. Currently have 193.

Something called Crosstab has 197 Dark Blue. Wonder if anybody takes that one seriously.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Here is an interesting part of that site.
This is the table version of the Optimus House Predictions, which is the most right-leaning of the polls shown at this point. Currently D202 R210

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_
title=0ptimus-house-forecast


Now, I can point out that, with the exception of the Rock-The-Vote mistake of 2006, the past few decades of Mid-Terms result in GoP gains, restoring a modicum of reason to Congress.

So their prediction specifies that:
Likely Dems include Current 6D, plus 3R that will flip.
Leaning Dems include current 6D, plus 6R that will flip.
Tossups include current 2D, plus 21R that are going to flip.
Leaning GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 28R.
Likely GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 40R.

This means, of 438 Seats, only 2 Dems will flip to GoP in a Mid-Term Election. That seems hilarious.

For me, at least, this seems clear that the massive number of flips from GoP to Dem in a Mid-term is the opposite of historical trend. Seems Liberals cannot learn from History.

Let's see how this list of projected counter-trend of flips will emerge on Election Day. Ha ha.

Current GoP Likely to flip to Dem:
NJ-2 Open
PA-6
PA-13

Current GoP Leaning to flip to Dem;
AZ-2 OPEN
CA-49 OPEN
CO-6
MN-3
NJ-11 OPEN
VA-10

Current GoP considered Tossup to flip to Dem:
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39 OPEN
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
FL-27 OPEN
IA-1
IL-6
KS-2 OPEN
KS-3
KY-6
MI-11 OPEN
MN-2
NC-9 OPEN
NJ-3
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
TX-7
TX-32

Current Dems Leaning toward flip to GoP:
MN-1 OPEN

Current Dems Likely to flip to GoP:
PA-14 Lamb

Anybody think that bias in the slate will hold up for 3 weeks?
For observers of Real World Elections, this delusion is incredulous.

16 States. AZ, CA, CO, KS, MI, MN, NJ, NC, KY, PA, FL, NY, TX, IA, IL, VA.
States not in that list:
AK, AL, AR, DE, LA, WI, IN, TN, SC, MS, GA, MD, NE, MT, ID, UT, OR, WA, WV, VT, NH, ME, RI, OH, HI, MA, CT, WY, NM, MO, ND, SD, NV, OK.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Now RCP is D205 R199.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199

Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.

Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO - looks like NJ, MT are new)

So that is:

D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D214 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R199 D44 R50 RCP

With 11 days remaining.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
New poll today has FL tied at 46%.


So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.



With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.

No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.


Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.

Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32

Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY, NE,
MS(1) 28%, 60-32

So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.



Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 51-46 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 11%, 50-39

Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40

Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D43 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.



Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 1%, 47-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 6%, 51-45
TN GoP 3%, 47-44

FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Now RCP is D205 R199.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199

Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.

Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO - looks like NJ, MT are new)

So that is:

D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D214 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R199 D44 R50 RCP

With 11 days remaining.

---

Today RCP changed to D205 R201.

9 days to go.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Those are very discrepant predictions, and the numbers haven't gotten closer yet. It'll be interesting to see who's been 'righter'.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.

435 Seats up for Election.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.

435 Seats up for Election.

The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.

Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.

Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.

If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.


Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.

If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.


Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.



The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17

The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34

The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39
CA-49 Open Dem 14%, 53-39
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41

The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34


The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45

The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46
CA-45 Dem 7%, 52-45
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45
IA-3 Dem 2%, 43-41
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 45-44
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39


If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.

Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.


But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.

So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.


But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222.

And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229.


Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Today RCP changed to D205 R200.
And 538 D216 R196
And Politico D208 R199

So that is:

D206 R200 T29 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R196 T23 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R200 T30 D44 R50 RCP

8 days to go.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Today RCP changed to D205 R200.
And 538 D216 R196
And Politico D208 R199

So that is:

D206 R200 T29 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R196 T23 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R200 T30 D44 R50 RCP

8 days to go.

---

Today RCP has changed to D204 R199.
And Optimus to D208 R198.
And Cook D209 R197.

7 days to go.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Today RCP has changed to D204 R199.
And Optimus to D208 R198.
And Cook D209 R197.

7 days to go.

---

Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.

There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground

They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).

RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP


6 days to go.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I don't think that anybody but Nate Silver has had the illusion that the GOP wasn't taking the senate for over a month now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Today RCP has changed to D204 R199.
And Optimus to D208 R198.
And Cook D209 R197.

7 days to go.

---

Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.

There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground

They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).

RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP

6 days to go.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.

There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground

They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).

RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP

6 days to go.

---

RCP changed to D203 R198 T34.
Last Monday 538 changed to 192 Dark Blue. Today changed to 190 Dark Blue.
And by the end of the day, RCP was D203 R195 T37. That is 37 Tossups compared to 19 Tossups from 538.

5 days to go.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:
A 2017 article in the peer-reviewed American Political Science Review analyzed 49 field experiments to assess the effectiveness of campaigns’ traditional tactics. “We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero,” the article concludes.

More at https://qz.com/1449789/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

---

Quote:

---

The app doesn’t try to change anyone’s mind. Opinions are usually too hardened for that.

---

Quote:

---

The most consistent and effective way to boost turnout, argues Donald Green, a political scientist at Columbia University, is through conversations and encouragement from people we trust.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

No. But what it DOES do is let every idiot with an opinion judge their friends and family members based off of their PRIVATE voting records, and it should be outlawed.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yeah, whatever.

The app should be outlawed.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

---

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

---

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.

---

Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.

There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground

They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).

RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP

6 days to go.

---

I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP


4 days to go.

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 1kiki:
This was today's headline from CNN

"With the midterms just days away, CNN's Key Race ratings moves six contests in favor of the Democrats"

'key races' '6 contests' moved ... OK, this is intriguing ... click on the link ...

"CNN Key Races: Six races move toward Democrats as battle for control of the House enters the home stretch"

Uhhhhh ... I haven't thought of House control as being a battle for a while now. Anything for a headline, I guess.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/03/politics/cnn-house-key-races-final-
update/index.html

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I suspect the polls are not accurate. Probably a bit more accurate than in 2016, but nothing to bet on.

We won't know what the actual results are until the last vote is tallied.



But, yeah. None of the polls have ever shown that the house was a battle. Even the heavily Republican biased Optimus outlier shows a drastically different outcome the other way.



What I find to be interesting about this all is how grossly intriguing it is. On face value, both the Senate and House race outcomes seem to have been set in stone for months now, which should make them about as interesting to watch as a sporting event that was a blowout in the first period.

But OTOH, since polls have become so inaccurate, it's like we're watching a game where even though it seems one side is dominating the other, nobody has bothered to keep the score.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The worst outcome would be a tie in the House. I would rather the Dems eek out a one seat victory than a tie. The MSM would love that though. Every single tie in the house that Pence would have to be the tie breaker for would be a scandal.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. But what it DOES do is let every idiot with an opinion judge their friends and family members based off of their PRIVATE voting records, and it should be outlawed.

---

You know what should be outlawed? Making promises that are lies: Instead of running on the tax bill they already passed, Republicans are trying to convince voters with a new (nonexistent) one. It’s been about two weeks since President Donald Trump said Republicans would deliver a 10 percent tax cut to the middle class before the 2018 midterm elections. Of course it was never going to happen.

You know what else should be outlawed? Not remembering. Trump knows the majority of voters won't, can't, remember even 1% of what he says, which frees him. "Trump says there’s another tax cut on the way." www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/21/18005468/trump-tax-cut-midd
le-class-2-0

I can remember the last tax cut from Trump and who got the money: me and Trump.
U.S. borrowing on pace to top $1.3 trillion this year, the highest since 2010
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/30/us-borrowing-pace-top-trill
ion-this-year-highest-since/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.763a00d4571b

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yeah, whatever.

The app should be outlawed.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

I looked around for something that would really give 6ixStringJack the creepy-crawlers about his "violated" privacy and I found it:

If you have a driver's license, you are automatically registered to vote in 13 states and the District of Columbia. More states are expected to pass the reform soon.

Going full automatic, your ballot is mailed to you in Oregon. Never miss an election, automatically. Anybody who can make "X" can vote.

6ixStringJack would have to avoid Oregon because they make voting so easy for everybody, even Jehovah's Witnesses who might accidentally fall into sinfulness by voting (they religiously object to voting www.jw.org/en/jehovahs-witnesses/faq/political-neutrality/ ).

More at www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/11/map-of-the-day-automatic-voter-
registration/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Though I'm not a fan of Oregon's mailed ballots, I don't have any problem with being automatically registered to vote when you get a driver's license.

None of what you just posted is a violation of privacy even close to the level of that voting history app.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

---

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/30/us-borrowing-pace-top-trill
ion-this-year-highest-since/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.763a00d4571b


What the heck is net marketable borrowing?

---

Quote:

---

Privately-held "net marketable borrowing" excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA), but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions.

---