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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
The Mid-Term Elections 2018
Monday, October 22, 2018 9:34 AM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP now showing 205D to 199R The gap is closing considerably. I wonder what the October surprise will be. Do Right, Be Right. :)RCP used to be what? On what date? 206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP now showing 205D to 199R The gap is closing considerably. I wonder what the October surprise will be. Do Right, Be Right. :)RCP used to be what? On what date?
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP now showing 205D to 199R The gap is closing considerably. I wonder what the October surprise will be. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Monday, October 22, 2018 9:43 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: I actually read polling data. I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question. I don't think that this is the norm though. It would be far too easy for people who actually look into things to debunk the whole lot of them if they were. It's too early to say exactly when, but if we don't see the polls showing more accuracy overall by 2020, I expect it to be no later than 2022. You don't even have to look at it from my point of view to see that this is likely to happen. Look at it from a business perspective. How many times can Nate Silver fail horribly before the Democrats stop viewing him as a virtual "safe space" for their desires and turn on him and start calling him a liar? Do Right, Be Right. :)
Monday, October 22, 2018 9:54 AM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?The poll for 2016 is still there at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ On November 6, 2016, 538 gave Trump a 35% chance of winning. Why FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anyone else: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
Quote:Originally posted: 538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Monday, October 22, 2018 12:35 PM
SECOND
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Did you notice, according to that link, they had Trump at 28% on Election Day?
Monday, October 22, 2018 2:22 PM
Monday, October 22, 2018 3:34 PM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Nate Silver? He's been telling the same lies, as I detailed above, since 2008. So this is his 11th cycle of lies. How many more times before you wake up and realize he is lying?
Quote:Easy to debunk? I have provided a decent description above, and all of the facts support this truth. But how many people have allowed this to soak in - certainly not you. And then, how many will still remember the same in 2 years? For the past several decades, not that many, including everybody you talk with, apparently. Those who can remember the same events happening every 2 years are known as Conservatives, or the Poll liars themselves.
Monday, October 22, 2018 8:40 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate. Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Today 538 changed to D210 R199. I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 11:26 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate. Daily Kos changed to D206 R200. Today 538 has changed to D217 R198 So that is D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN D202 R210 Optimus D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV) D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 2:03 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate. Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.Today 538 has changed to D217 R198 So that is D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN D202 R210 Optimus D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV) D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate. Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 5:18 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: I actually read polling data. I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 5:59 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: I actually read polling data. I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.I have noticed this.
Quote:Have you observed any polls in this cycle which you believe are valid or not rigged? Where the poll's Conservative respondents were not artificially suppressed or absent in the results?
Quote:Or do you really, really believe that a couple weeks before the last Election there were only 14% of Americans who were going to vote for Trump, and more than 80% who were going to vote for Hilliary?
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 7:47 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: I actually read polling data. I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.I have noticed this. I do remember a particular Florida poll in 2016 where the amount of hispanic voters polled equaled 3 times the actual demographic makeup of the state. Although they didn't outright say that they intentionally polled far more Democrats than they should have, this should have been inferred by anybody who read through the demographic breakdown. Quote:Have you observed any polls in this cycle which you believe are valid or not rigged? Where the poll's Conservative respondents were not artificially suppressed or absent in the results? Honestly, I haven't looked that deeply into it this year. The only race that matters in my state is Donnely (D) trying to keep his senate seat. He's quite moderate and rather well liked in my state. I personally will be voting against him after his party-line vote against Kavanaugh, but I have no idea how the voters in the rest of the state are going to vote. Quote:Or do you really, really believe that a couple weeks before the last Election there were only 14% of Americans who were going to vote for Trump, and more than 80% who were going to vote for Hilliary?
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 10:39 PM
1KIKI
Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 2:19 AM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 2:21 AM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 9:29 AM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 10:47 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP showing 205D to 200R. It's also showing Trump's approval at 44.3%, which except for a single day on June 4th (44.4%) is the highest it's ever been. I've believe that there's a 50/50 chance for the house to remain GOP if he goes beyond 45% by election day. More if there is as large of a hidden turnout that I expect. Everybody's already forgotten about Kavanaugh. This entire thing is going to ride on the outcome of the "caravan" reality TV show. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 11:56 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.Today 538 has changed to D217 R198 So that is D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN D202 R210 Optimus D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV) D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ. Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197. And Cook to D209 R196. And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted. New Monmouth poll today boosts Rohrabacher up 5%, to 50%.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. 17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.Today 538 has changed to D217 R198 So that is D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN D202 R210 Optimus D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV) D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 12:04 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 12:15 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: RCP showing 205D to 200R. It's also showing Trump's approval at 44.3%, which except for a single day on June 4th (44.4%) is the highest it's ever been. I've believe that there's a 50/50 chance for the house to remain GOP if he goes beyond 45% by election day. More if there is as large of a hidden turnout that I expect. Everybody's already forgotten about Kavanaugh. This entire thing is going to ride on the outcome of the "caravan" reality TV show. Do Right, Be Right. :)One point Nat Silver of 538 has made over and over again in recent weeks is that even if you take his House and Senate forecasts at face value, when you think about both of them together, there’s around a 40 percent chance that one of them will be wrong. He elaborated on this on Twitter this week, making a point that’s important to understand — that a “very normal-sized polling error” in either direction could result in a dramatically different outcome: This is a unique election in which there will be big practical consequences if polls are off by even a relatively modest amount in *either* direction. Although a House-Senate split is the most likely outcome, there's still a 35-40% chance that one party wins both chambers. If polls underestimate Republicans by 2-3 points — which is a very normal-sized polling error — the House is a district-by-district nail-biter. If polls underestimate Dems by 2-3 points, their path to victory in the Senate is much more viable; toss-ups go their way, TN/TX close etc. More at www.vox.com/2018/10/24/18009356/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-2018-forecast-analysis
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 1:01 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 1:13 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Well... to be fair, Silver has learned his lessons and is hedging his bets well. He's been able to show the Democrats "winning" every single day leading up to the election, but for the most part it's overall within the so-called margin of error. He's already built in his excuse, and according to Second there he's already coming out and defending his polling weeks ahead of time by essentially saying "it's so close that there's a very good chance I'm entirely wrong again". Like I said earlier, they're not making the same mistake as they did last year when they were showing Clinton's chances of winning at well over 80%. Hell... maybe his reasoning for being much closer this time is that he already is considering the "hidden vote". I doubt very much that's the case though, and if you looked at individual polls in toss up states it wouldn't reflect that idea. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 1:19 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 1:50 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 2:35 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 2:40 PM
Quote:“The Most Important Election of Our Lives.” That's my new column, and you hear it every time, but this year really is the most important contest in decades (or at least since 2016).
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 5:10 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 6:13 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: 6ix, if you are paying attention then you should be shocked at how clever Trump was: Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not! Vote Republican. 5:45 AM - 24 Oct 2018 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1055077740792160256 Hopefully, Trump is easy to understand. What he said is plainly different than the truth on preexisting conditions: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) that Obama pushed through Congress is why we have pre-existing conditions protections in the first place, and Trump has been attacking it for years. The Trump administration is currently arguing in federal court that the part of the ACA requiring pre-existing conditions to be covered is unconstitutional. A recent Trump administration rule makes it easier for states to get waivers that would allow their ACA coverage to exclude such protections; another makes it easier for citizens to meet their ACA requirements with short-term limited-duration (STLD) plans that also exclude those protections. http://alicublog.blogspot.com/2018/10/time-to-go-full-goebbels.html The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 7:14 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Don't get me started on healthcare. That entire system is broke and I doubt there is ever going to be any fixing it. Ever since the ACA came out, middle class Americans have paid anywhere from 15% to 40% increases on their monthly dues every year, just to keep it afloat. Do you realize that people who don't have a lot of money would be forced to "voluntarily" drop their coverage once it becomes completely unaffordable? Unlike some other long term problems, this is something that would start happening within the next 5 or so years when these insurance costs started truly breaking the bank. I suspect that since there will no longer be a tax penalty for not having insurance that many people will start going without health insurance next year because of these costs. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 7:35 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197. And Cook to D209 R196. And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted. Now that polls show Senate Dems losing in both NV and MO, today 538 changed to D48 R50 - with NV and MO as tossups. With Dem losing in MT, they still call that a win for their team, the Dems. 13 days to go.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197. And Cook to D209 R196. And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 8:17 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 8:44 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2018 10:49 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Think how much money would be saved if you don't spend anything on healthcare.
Thursday, October 25, 2018 8:30 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: The real secret the hospitals don't want you to know is that their actual cost of operations is nothing and every penny they charge is 100% profit.
Thursday, October 25, 2018 8:37 AM
Thursday, October 25, 2018 9:55 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: What I wrote is sarcasm. I'm all about looking into Single Payer options that cut out all the fat. But we never talk about that. The ACA did nothing but prop up the insurance company Ponzi Scheme and all of the bad medicinal practices that lead to all of these insane costs. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Thursday, October 25, 2018 11:57 AM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: The real secret the hospitals don't want you to know is that their actual cost of operations is nothing and every penny they charge is 100% profit.I do hope you don't believe what you wrote. A quarter of hospital expenditure, or roughly $215 billion, comes from administrative costs. These costs include marketing expenditure, overheads associated with performing administrative tasks, and the salaries paid to employees responsible for coding and billing. U.S. hospitals spend more on administrative costs than foreign hospitals because of factors in the U.S. such as per-patient billing and the need for administrative staff to negotiate multiple contracts. However, more careful money management could help local hospitals reduce their spending by more than $150 billion out of the $215 billion they spend now. https://healthcaremba.gwu.edu/blog/the-top-costs-associated-with-running-a-hospital/
Thursday, October 25, 2018 1:14 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. Now that polls show Senate Dems losing in both NV and MO, today 538 changed to D48 R50 - with NV and MO as tossups. With Dem losing in MT, they still call that a win for their team, the Dems. 13 days to go.And now, later in the day, 538 has also changed to D216 R198. This is backing off their certainty of Dems taking control of House. So that is: D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN D209 R197 Optimus D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico D216 R198 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO) D209 R196 D44 R48 Cook And at RCP, something called NTU has D47 R53. Maybe that is No Toss Up. Where they call FL, MT, and IN for Dems, even tho MT and IN polls have Dems losing. They call NV, AZ, MO for GoP.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. Now that polls show Senate Dems losing in both NV and MO, today 538 changed to D48 R50 - with NV and MO as tossups. With Dem losing in MT, they still call that a win for their team, the Dems. 13 days to go.
Thursday, October 25, 2018 1:31 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election. It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions. The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats. Historically, Liberals lose percentage of seats in midterms because they cannot expect to ride the coattails of the surge in voters like the President cycle. Office Holders must rely upon stable, solid, sturdy voters to find their way to the voting booths, and most of the fair weather voters are Liberals.
Thursday, October 25, 2018 1:55 PM
Thursday, October 25, 2018 7:10 PM
Thursday, October 25, 2018 7:42 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Today a new poll for FL Senate has them 47% and 46%. Assuming that poll has a Left tilt, that means the Corrupt Dem Gillum loses. If there is no slant in the poll, then FL could be an actual Tossup. With less than 48%, 538 calls that for Dems.
Thursday, October 25, 2018 8:35 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Today a new poll for FL Senate has them 47% and 46%. Assuming that poll has a Left tilt, that means the Corrupt Dem Gillum loses. If there is no slant in the poll, then FL could be an actual Tossup. With less than 48%, 538 calls that for Dems.You are not reading 538 correctly. What it said at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/florida/ is this: Date of Poll: Oct 23-25 Pollster was Siena College/New York Times 308 Likely Voters were asked who they would vote for. 51% said Nelson (D) 41% said Scott (R) Which leaves 8% of the voters polled don’t know which way is up. 51%+41%+8%=100% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/florida/ https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018
Friday, October 26, 2018 3:24 PM
Friday, October 26, 2018 4:09 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date: Daily Kos D205 R202 CNN D206 R201 Optimus D203 R219 Politico D209 R200 538 D213 R208 Cook D207 R197 Remember, some people consider these to have no bias. Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197. And Cook to D209 R196. And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.And now, later in the day, 538 has also changed to D216 R198. This is backing off their certainty of Dems taking control of House. So that is: D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN D209 R197 Optimus D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico D216 R198 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO) D209 R196 D44 R48 Cook D205 R200 D44 R50 RCP And at RCP, something called NTU has D47 R53. Maybe that is No Toss Up. Where they call FL, MT, and IN for Dems, even tho MT and IN polls have Dems losing. They call NV, AZ, MO for GoP.
Saturday, October 27, 2018 12:42 AM
Saturday, October 27, 2018 1:12 AM
Saturday, October 27, 2018 4:14 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: I just want to say again ... thanks! for the running updates.
Saturday, October 27, 2018 4:17 AM
Saturday, October 27, 2018 4:21 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 1kiki: No - but it sounds festive.
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