The Mid-Term Elections 2018 by JEWELSTAITEFAN

I am still thinking SuperMajority, here we come. Thanks Fienstein, Shumer, Floozy-Ford.

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Tuesday, October 9, 2018 9:54 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

I think that just like 2016, anyone who's pro-Trump /pro-republican is going to keep mum about their opinions, and be under-counted.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2018 7:43 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
I think that just like 2016, anyone who's pro-Trump /pro-republican is going to keep mum about their opinions, and be under-counted.

Especially in the urban areas. Have you seen any recent videos of what's going on in Portland?

If you thought the extreme left was crazy back in 2016, they're absolutely rabid in 2018. My prediction is the polls are about 10 points off in almost every case.

We'll see what happens.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, October 10, 2018 8:35 AM

Yesterday marked 4 weeks to go.

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Thursday, October 11, 2018 1:28 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

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Thursday, October 11, 2018 8:23 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/

Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

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Friday, October 12, 2018 7:34 PM

Anybody hear about Florida Governor race? Dems and Soros, Bloomberg are supporting Bernie candidate Gillam.
This guy is on 2 Prime topics, putting 100% of people on Medicare, and Impeach Trump.
Running for Governor.

Medicare currently has 15% participation, with 100% of people contributing, and is scheduled to become insolvent in 2026 - 8 years from now.

No need to calculate the Financial Illiteracy required to think shifting to 100% Recipient participation will solve all of the Medicare problems.
Just conjure how the Federal Program of Medicare is a viable campaign issue for Governor.
Same for Impeach Trump.

How stupid do Socialists think Democrat Voters are?

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Friday, October 12, 2018 8:05 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

Polls are tricky things. The respondents have to be selected randomly and without any oversampling, the questions have to be neutral and specific, and people have to answer honestly. In 2016 democrats were oversampled, and people didn't want to come out and say they were voting for Trump. It's hard to say how much of that might be going on now, in 2018.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost the House. I've posted the link twice already, but it's historically the norm for the party of the president to lose substantial numbers from Congress in off-year elections.

Just to re-litigate the 2016 election a bit, to see if any of those factors still hold - While Obama personally got high marks for his demeanor, people were bitterly disappointed that he failed to prosecute - or even investigate - the institutions that caused the 2007 global financial meltdown.

I believe that was the cause of this 2010 off-year election result:

Quote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2010
The Democratic Party suffered massive defeats in many national and state level elections, with many seats switching to Republican Party control. Although the President's party usually loses congressional, statewide and local seats in midterm elections, the 2010 midterm election season featured some of the biggest losses since the Great Depression. The Republican Party gained 63 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, recapturing the majority, and making it the largest seat change since 1948 and the largest for any midterm election since the 1938 midterm elections. The Republicans gained six seats in the U.S. Senate, expanding its minority, and also gained 680 seats in state legislative races,[4][5][6] to break the previous majority record of 628 set by Democrats in the post-Watergate elections of 1974.[6] This left Republicans in control of 26 state legislatures, compared to the 15 still controlled by Democrats. After the election, Republicans took control of 29 of the 50 State Governorships.

And I believe that same dynamic carried over into the 2016 presidential election, where Hillary carried the same unpopular (and not populist) message, and the same identity politics, but without the PERSONAL approval that carried Obama along.

What may be driving this election isn't Trump's policies, but his demeanor, along with the normal historical dynamic. OTOH, I believe that may be mitigated somewhat in the polls by people being mum about supporting Trump's efforts.

Time will tell.

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:15 AM

Look at the wishful thinking on 270 to win...

https://www.270towin.com/maps/nmzJ2

Already predicting the Dems barely squeeze out a win for President with only 752 days left and no Democratic candidate.

lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:40 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Looking at all the polls for the House of Representatives elections:
10% chance Democrats gain more than 56 seats
80% chance Democrats gain 17 to 56 seats.
10% chance Democrats gain fewer than 17 seats.

But the chance Republicans keep control is 20.9%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/

Chance Republicans keep control of the Senate is 81.3%.
10% chance Republicans gain more than 4 seats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/se
nate/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 12:30 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Looking at all the polls for the House of Representatives elections:
10% chance Democrats gain more than 56 seats
80% chance Democrats gain 17 to 56 seats.
10% chance Democrats gain fewer than 17 seats.

But the chance Republicans keep control is 20.9%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/

Chance Republicans keep control of the Senate is 81.3%.
10% chance Republicans gain more than 4 seats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/se
nate/

So the GoP has 79% chance of NOT retaining House Majority. Good to hear such an unbiased analysis.

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 2:38 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Polls are tricky things. The respondents have to be selected randomly and without any oversampling, the questions have to be neutral and specific, and people have to answer honestly. In 2016 democrats were oversampled, and people didn't want to come out and say they were voting for Trump. It's hard to say how much of that might be going on now, in 2018.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost the House. I've posted the link twice already, but it's historically the norm for the party of the president to lose substantial numbers from Congress in off-year elections.

I have seen your link.
Shall I infer you have not seen my responses or discussion of them?
These pseudo-quasi-arguments in your links are quite ancient. Each election cycle, Liberals drag them out of the closet, wipe the dust off, and claim they are fresh arguments, while ignoring the past 30 years of historical evidence that these pretense of arguments are flat.
Have you not read my posts, or are you just hoping everybody will ignore them?

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 3:36 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Polls are tricky things. The respondents have to be selected randomly and without any oversampling, the questions have to be neutral and specific, and people have to answer honestly. In 2016 democrats were oversampled, and people didn't want to come out and say they were voting for Trump. It's hard to say how much of that might be going on now, in 2018.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost the House. I've posted the link twice already, but it's historically the norm for the party of the president to lose substantial numbers from Congress in off-year elections.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have seen your link.
Shall I infer you have not seen my responses or discussion of them?

??? I thought I was responding. I have no way to evaluate your claims or the polls. I think there are multiple ways the polls could be going wrong, both positively and negatively. But, "time will tell".

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
These pseudo-quasi-arguments in your links are quite ancient.

The arguments were mine, not found in any links. I thought that was clearly indicated.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Each election cycle, Liberals drag them out of the closet, wipe the dust off, and claim they are fresh arguments, while ignoring the past 30 years of historical evidence that these pretense of arguments are flat.
Have you not read my posts, or are you just hoping everybody will ignore them?

I honestly have no clue what you're referring to. You've made many claims republicans are headed to a House supermajority. But you've provided no data, backed up by no links, to support that. As far as I can tell, they're simply your claims, and there doesn't seem to be a basis for discussion.
The links I've provided twice in the past were wiki links that showed a nearly invariant pattern that the party of the presidency lost seats in Congress in off year elections over more than 100 years. Other links (links to search results from the house.gov site, that failed to work, also posted twice) showed that sometimes these reversals were dramatic, far exceeding what would be required to flip the current House majority. That indicates a House flip is within proven range.
As for polls, I'm agnostic. I provide them as a resource only. But I have no way to evaluate them other that by noting how they've gone wrong in the past, and that they may still be going wrong now.

You've posted elsewhere that you're really busy. But if this post doesn't address your positions, perhaps you could go back and indicate which polls, which arguments, which statements you take issue with (with quotes) so I can reply specifically.

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 11:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.

As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.

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Monday, October 15, 2018 8:38 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.

As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202

So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.

3 weeks to go.

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Monday, October 15, 2018 10:58 PM

I am disappointed that I have not been able to find time to track this better.
I might just need to give up.

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 1:57 AM

RCP now showing 205D to 199R

The gap is closing considerably.

I wonder what the October surprise will be.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:30 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R

The gap is closing considerably.

I wonder what the October surprise will be.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

RCP used to be what? On what date?

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202

So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.

3 weeks to go.

Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 8:58 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R

The gap is closing considerably.

I wonder what the October surprise will be.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
RCP used to be what? On what date?

206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 11:18 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R

The gap is closing considerably.

I wonder what the October surprise will be.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
RCP used to be what? On what date?

206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Interesting.

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 11:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202

So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.

3 weeks to go.
Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.

I notice 538 also has 190 solid blue on their spectrum.

Dems only won 194 last time, while riding Hilliary's coattails. Currently have 193.

Something called Crosstab has 197 Dark Blue. Wonder if anybody takes that one seriously.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2018 4:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R

The gap is closing considerably.

I wonder what the October surprise will be.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
RCP used to be what? On what date?

206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
Interesting.

Not really. The Kavanaugh joke backfired spectacularly on them. Go figure.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, October 17, 2018 8:50 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202

So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.

3 weeks to go.
Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.

Today Cook changed a smidge D208 R197

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Wednesday, October 17, 2018 9:46 PM

REAVERFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I am still thinking SuperMajority, here we come. Thanks Fienstein, Shumer, Floozy-Ford.

Melania's a money-grubbing whore.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2018 9:51 PM

REAVERFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Anybody hear about Florida Governor race? Dems and Soros, Bloomberg are supporting Bernie candidate Gillam.
This guy is on 2 Prime topics, putting 100% of people on Medicare, and Impeach Trump.
Running for Governor.

Medicare currently has 15% participation, with 100% of people contributing, and is scheduled to become insolvent in 2026 - 8 years from now.

No need to calculate the Financial Illiteracy required to think shifting to 100% Recipient participation will solve all of the Medicare problems.
Just conjure how the Federal Program of Medicare is a viable campaign issue for Governor.
Same for Impeach Trump.

How stupid do Socialists think Democrat Voters are?

Please provide evidence that Soros is supporting anyone. Thanks in advance.

538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/

But, the Repubs have a fortune in dark money, thanks to the tax giveaways to their rich owners. And of course, nothing has been done about Russian meddling.

Not even in here.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2018 9:58 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:

538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/

Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?

Quote:
Not even in here.

Yeah. It's a shame that Haken doesn't share your love for censorship, huh?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:33 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R

The gap is closing considerably.

I wonder what the October surprise will be.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Do you find the timing suspicious, for 4,000 Hondurans caravanning to the U.S. Border? Are they getting bussed across Mejico to make sure they arrive on the correct date?

Curious to wonder who thinks this will benefit Dems, and not Trump. Gotta go find that Trump Wins Again GIF, already.

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Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202

So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

3 weeks to go.

Today 538 changed to D210 R199.

So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50
CNN D206 R201 D45 R49
Optimus D202 R210
Politico D209 R200 D45 R50
538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV)
Cook D208 R197 D44 R47

I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking.
And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.

Those show Tammy Baldwin with a 10 point lead, 52-42.
Most of the above pundits have moved WI Gov from Dem win to tossup now.

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Friday, October 19, 2018 8:48 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202

So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

3 weeks to go.
Today 538 changed to D210 R199.

So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50
CNN D206 R201 D45 R49
Optimus D202 R210
Politico D209 R200 D45 R50
538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV)
Cook D208 R197 D44 R47

I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking.
And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.

Those show Tammy Baldwin with a 10 point lead, 52-42.
Most of the above pundits have moved WI Gov from Dem win to tossup now.

Cook changed again D208 R196 D44 R48
And 538 D216 R199

18 days to go.
Tonight WI has a Senator debate, followed by a Governor debate.

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 1:54 AM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Thanks for posting.

I have no dog in this fight. California is a big blue state and I don't see that changing any time soon. I'm mostly curious how this turns out from a predictive standpoint (who gets it right?), and also from a national political standpoint. Do the democrats win back any power positions?

But mostly I've been very busy. I've been training my replacement and re-writing the SOPs before I move into another group.

So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 8:25 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:

So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.

There is a guy who worked closely with Trump for years and was high up in the GOP apparatus. He has some insight for you, 1kiki:

Michael Cohen has fully given up on his former boss Donald Trump. On Friday, Cohen told a reporter that people should get out to vote to avoid "another two or another six years of this craziness." He didn't specify "vote against Trump and the GOP," but his meaning seemed fairly clear in the video at
https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1053344486376394752

From 2017 to 2018, Cohen was deputy finance chairman of the Republican National Committee. On 11 October 2018, Cohen re-registered himself as Democratic in an effort to distance “himself from the values of the current” administration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Cohen_(lawyer)

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 8:30 AM

Reregistered as a "Democratic", huh?

Not really sure what that means for him in the long run. Donald Trump was a Democratic all of his life until he ran for President.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 8:42 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:

538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/

Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?

The poll for 2016 is still there at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

On November 6, 2016, 538 gave Trump a 35% chance of winning. The chance of "winning" a game of Russian roulette is 16.7% with one pull of the trigger. With two pulls the chance of a bullet in your brain increases to 33.4%, about the same as Trump's chances of winning in 2016. Russian roulette is not a game I would play even once, let alone twice. The probabilities are against you.

Why FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anyone else:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-
better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:03 AM

lol

Russia!!!!!!

I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now.

What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets.

Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:14 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol

Russia!!!!!!

I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now.

What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets.

Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I will feel no pain, 6ix. The GOP has a noteworthy chance of increasing its control in the Senate, and to a lesser extent, the House. If the GOP does well in this election, which I hope they don't, they will be giving the wealthy another tax cut. That will be my multi-million dollar consolation prize when the Democrats lose. Too bad you won't get a prize, 6ix, but ha-ha for me!

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:49 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Reregistered as a "Democratic", huh?

Not really sure what that means for him in the long run. Donald Trump was a Democratic all of his life until he ran for President.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

The key part was re-registered, not registered. Cohen has been Democrat for his whole life, only registering as Republican for the past year or so (not 2 years), plus something like a year one other time.

I don't think second wanted you, or anybody else, to be paying attention to any facts. Facts and truth are not favorable to his delusions.

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:49 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol

Russia!!!!!!

I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now.

What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets.

Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
I will feel no pain, 6ix. The GOP has a noteworthy chance of increasing its control in the Senate, and to a lesser extent, the House. If the GOP does well in this election, which I hope they don't, they will be giving the wealthy another tax cut. That will be my multi-million dollar consolation prize when the Democrats lose. Too bad you won't get a prize, 6ix, but ha-ha for me!

Enjoy it.

Maybe you'll stop bitching for a while and you can go brag to somebody who cares.

I don't care about money beyond being able to pay the bills. I'll be enjoying all of my free time while you're obsessing over stupid shit. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 10:06 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted:
538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/

Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
The poll for 2016 is still there at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

On November 6, 2016, 538 gave Trump a 35% chance of winning.

Why FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anyone else:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-
better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

Did you notice, according to that link, they had Trump at 28% on Election Day?

Based upon your insipid delusional comments, I immediately assumed that the linky you provided would be no more than the standard useless blather that the Left has relied upon for decades.
That goes like this: in the final days before an Election, the Pollsters are forced to return to reality, after months of Spinning their lies. This is because their self-selected measure of Pollster accuracy is comparing actual Election results to the FINAL POLL taken, the Last Poll they took before the Election. This is their self-chosen gauge to provide credibility for all of their future Polls (their future work, income, money, influence, relevance.). So since they only measure that Last, Final Poll, then that is the ONLY POLL that they make any attempt to reflect reality.

This is the same for every Election.

However, you have accidentally provided a linky which actually swerved into reality, and is actually relevant - either you forgot that reality was included in this particular linky, or you were incapable of recognizing reality when you encountered it.

In that linky, the first actual graph I see, shows the "polling" results for the months leading up to the Election, although the specifics are completely ignored in written narrative filling that web page.
If you look at that graph, you may discover the Universal Truth about Election Polling. Look at October 2016. (We are right now in October 2018). See how the Pollsters feverishly toiled so diligently to sway the opinions of voters? They gave Trump about 13%, only 2-3 weeks before he won a majority of Electoral Votes.
For those who voted for Trump, this weak Tea likely had little effect on their strong minds. But for the weak-minded this tactic is essential - for Democrats, Socialists, Communists and other Liberals rely heavily upon the vote of the most weak-minded - and so they absolutely must sway those weak minds to vote for them. The weak-minded possess a need to fit in, be like everybody else, be a part of the majority, so Liberal Pollsters cultivate the illusion that the majority of Americans are Liberals. Compared to the Reality which is revealed on Election Day. (Funny thing is, after decades of this, Liberals in News now actually believe their own Press Releases, and are clearly befuddled and bewildered when reporting Election Day Results.)
This is one reason Democrats push so heavily for voters to Vote Early, Vote Often, use Absentee Ballots, so the Votes can be cast before the Polls drift toward reality, and before the Evilness of the Democrats is revealed, in the final days before Election.

For decades now, the "Poll shift" has always been about 15% toward the Left at this point in the cycle. I just realized now that this graph actually confirms this historical trend - looks about 14-15% comparing 13-14% in October 2016 to their 28% on Election Day.

So if you view the polls today through the lens of historical trends, and consider the Election Day polls will miraculously shift about 15% to the right - as they always do - then how do you interpret today's polls?
Of course, Elections where Votes can only be cast by Mail, in advance, are obviously excluded from Reality. They are Lost to the most delusional and weak-minded of the populace.

If you further interpret that 538 was calling for 28% Trump, undercounting Reality by At Least 20%, then you might jot down your observations with today's date and then refer back after Election results are announced.

If you want to play a game, try to predict what Storyline, what News Spin will be propped up as the reason, the cause, for such a miraculous and unforseen shift in the polls in the coming weeks. Looks like the timing of Kavanaugh was too early, and they have foregone using that as an excuse to return to polling reality. Or will they not shift gradually, and just proclaim surprise and shock?

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 10:27 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Enjoy it.

Maybe you'll stop bitching for a while and you can go brag to somebody who cares.

I don't care about money beyond being able to pay the bills. I'll be enjoying all of my free time while you're obsessing over stupid shit. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I am not bragging: anything I've done you could do it better, faster, and easier. But I've seen that wrong ideas people have are a drag upon their lives. They don't want to let go of the bad idea. They would rather drive over a cliff and die then make a left hand turn (which would be the same as admitting they had been wrong) to avoid a personal catastrophe. All the people I have known that went over the cliff, crashed and burned, I couldn't stop any of them from what they did to themselves. It is like the smoker who only developed the willpower to stop smoking after he had lung cancer. It's too late, he could have quit anytime, but he waited until he had lost a lung to change his mind about who gets cancer. Need I mention that tobacco companies made a fortune off of him? More explicitly, the GOP is also making a fortune off the people who buy their brand name product and smoke it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 11:17 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Thanks for posting.

I have no dog in this fight. California is a big blue state and I don't see that changing any time soon. I'm mostly curious how this turns out from a predictive standpoint (who gets it right?), and also from a national political standpoint. Do the democrats win back any power positions?

But mostly I've been very busy. I've been training my replacement and re-writing the SOPs before I move into another group.

So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.

I have been observing the predictive trends for decades now, but then I am REALLY good with Math.

When you have time to review this thread, check the post I made just above, about an hour ago.

Also, that predictive standpoint is the reason I am posting almost daily changes in the polls. Obviously, I cannot state what those polls will show in 2 weeks at this point, but posting them consistently will help paint the picture, or record it for later reference.

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 3:38 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/ note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
As of today, changes are:
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202

So that is

Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196

3 weeks to go.
Today 538 changed to D210 R199.

So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50
CNN D206 R201 D45 R49
Optimus D202 R210
Politico D209 R200 D45 R50
538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV)
Cook D208 R197 D44 R47

I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking.
And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.
Cook changed again D208 R196 D44 R48
And 538 D216 R199

Here is an interesting part of that site.
This is the table version of the Optimus House Predictions, which is the most right-leaning of the polls shown at this point. Currently D202 R210

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_
title=0ptimus-house-forecast

Now, I can point out that, with the exception of the Rock-The-Vote mistake of 2006, the past few decades of Mid-Terms result in GoP gains, restoring a modicum of reason to Congress.

So their prediction specifies that:
Likely Dems include Current 6D, plus 3R that will flip.
Leaning Dems include current 6D, plus 6R that will flip.
Tossups include current 2D, plus 21R that are going to flip.
Leaning GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 28R.
Likely GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 40R.

This means, of 438 Seats, only 2 Dems will flip to GoP in a Mid-Term Election. That seems hilarious.

For me, at least, this seems clear that the massive number of flips from GoP to Dem in a Mid-term is the opposite of historical trend. Seems Liberals cannot learn from History.

Let's see how this list of projected counter-trend of flips will emerge on Election Day. Ha ha.

Current GoP Likely to flip to Dem:
NJ-2 Open
PA-6
PA-13

Current GoP Leaning to flip to Dem;
AZ-2 OPEN
CA-49 OPEN
CO-6
MN-3
NJ-11 OPEN
VA-10

Current GoP considered Tossup to flip to Dem:
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39 OPEN
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
FL-27 OPEN
IA-1
IL-6
KS-2 OPEN
KS-3
KY-6
MI-11 OPEN
MN-2
NC-9 OPEN
NJ-3
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
TX-7
TX-32

Current Dems Leaning toward flip to GoP:
MN-1 OPEN

Current Dems Likely to flip to GoP:
PA-14 Lamb

Anybody think that bias in the slate will hold up for 3 weeks?
For observers of Real World Elections, this delusion is incredulous.

16 States. AZ, CA, CO, KS, MI, MN, NJ, NC, KY, PA, FL, NY, TX, IA, IL, VA.
States not in that list:
AK, AL, AR, DE, LA, WI, IN, TN, SC, MS, GA, MD, NE, MT, ID, UT, OR, WA, WV, VT, NH, ME, RI, OH, HI, MA, CT, WY, NM, MO, ND, SD, NV, OK.

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Saturday, October 20, 2018 4:15 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Today 538 changed to D210 R199.

I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup.

Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

D206 R201 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups MO, NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook

17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.

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Sunday, October 21, 2018 5:56 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Today 538 changed to D210 R199.

I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup.
Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

D206 R201 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups MO, NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook

17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.

538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate.

Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.

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Sunday, October 21, 2018 6:33 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Sunday, October 21, 2018 6:46 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.

You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now.

And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies?

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Sunday, October 21, 2018 6:55 PM

Rasmussen Polls indicate a strong Dem showing at the Voting booth could garner a 50-50 Senate, while a strong GoP showing would result in D44 R56.
Plus, Walker likely to win Gov in WI, while Libs call this opposite.

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Sunday, October 21, 2018 9:59 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.
You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now.

And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies?

I don't think, at least in general, that they're lying. Even to themselves.

They just have no idea how to truly make polls at this point, in this political climate.

I think during the next 6 years that polls are going to start being a lot more accurate. As more people say "fuck it" and stop worrying about idiots like Reaverfan and T calling them a Nazi and they just speak their minds, they're not going to continue to be secretive about who they support and why.

My guess is that similar to 2016, the polling data for 2018 is far under-representative of the support on the right because people still aren't admitting that they're voting against Democrats.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, October 22, 2018 12:27 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.
You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now.

And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies?

I don't think, at least in general, that they're lying. Even to themselves.

They just have no idea how to truly make polls at this point, in this political climate.

I think during the next 6 years that polls are going to start being a lot more accurate. As more people say "fuck it" and stop worrying about idiots like Reaverfan and T calling them a Nazi and they just speak their minds, they're not going to continue to be secretive about who they support and why.

My guess is that similar to 2016, the polling data for 2018 is far under-representative of the support on the right because people still aren't admitting that they're voting against Democrats.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Not lying. Methinks you're fooling yourself. If they hadn't proven for the past several decades that they trod out the same lies each cycle, you might have a viable concept. I might have considered this a possibility in 1980s or early 90s.

They don't know how to make polls. Then how/why do they continue to target, skew, slant, bias, imbalance the questions to ensure they get the results they are programmed to get? Your proposition requires they are insipid, and incompetent, not intentionally disingenuous.

Accuracy. Prior to 2016 they were quite accurate in responses, just disingenuous with their "reporting" of "results" from their polls. You just had to know what the standard built-in slant was in order to understand them. It is possible the normal segment of response refusal has expanded in the past few years, but they still know what those mean - the Pollsters just are not reporting them. And MSM actually believes their own Press Releases now, which wasn't the case back when actual News Organizations existed, instead of a harem of Weather Girls spouting the Entertainment Division TelePrompTer pablum.

With HD technology, you can virtually see the vacuum behind the eyes of the likes of Savannah, Maddow, Hoda, etc. Seeing their vacuous expressions on Election Night was quite entertaining.

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Monday, October 22, 2018 8:26 AM