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CINEMA
Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
Monday, November 6, 2023 10:45 PM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Well, well, well... I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.Not a decision. Pirates did their thing to make the movie available for FREE:
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Well, well, well... I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.
Tuesday, November 7, 2023 12:31 AM
SECOND
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Well, well, well... I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.Not a decision. Pirates did their thing to make the movie available for FREE: Pirates make EVERY movie free, stupid. Not just in America, but the entire world, stupid.
Tuesday, November 7, 2023 1:32 AM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Well, well, well... I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.Not a decision. Pirates did their thing to make the movie available for FREE: Pirates make EVERY movie free, stupid. Not just in America, but the entire world, stupid.The Pirated version is only in English. There are no subtitle files for other languages. Mexico and Brazil can't use the English-only version. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=international
Quote:6ix, you are stupider than you can know, which must feel great since you can keep your superiority complex going until it suddenly kills you. By that, I mean stupid people tend to lose years of life.
Tuesday, November 7, 2023 10:43 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 3rd): Still though, even if it doesn't join the 1,000% club, 900% and a 6th or 7th place finish for the year is pretty damn good for a movie that critics went out of their way to hate on while being available to watch at home since day one. It would rank 4th among the 2023 Horror releases while grossing more than all of them did and only being so low because of it's $25 Million budget. Talk to Me had a budget of only $4.5 Million. M3GAN's budget was $12 Million and Insidious' budget was $16 Million. Also, it would be the 2nd highest grossing Horror movie of 2023, only behind The Nun II's $265 Million current take... a feat that it should accomplish before the beginning of Weekend 3 if it doesn't succeed in that by Sunday.
Tuesday, November 7, 2023 9:24 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: I'm actually quite surprised at how much this has made internationally. The first weekend looked to almost mirror my prediction for Domestic to International share, but after a steep drop of -60% for the 2nd weekend in the US, the drop internationally either wasn't that large or it had opened a week late in numerous other territories to make up for it. Right now, it's $47 Million Domestic and $56 Million International (or 45.4% Domestic / 54.6% International). The international figures are actually better than that because there have been 5 days of Domestic numbers added that won't be added for the International numbers until Monday or Tuesday. This is still going to be a collisal flop, but it has already pulled in $104 Million worldwide without taking this weeks Internationals into account. I think it's pretty safe to say that it will beat Shazam II's $132 Million, so it's going to do better than I thought it would thanks to the international audience. There's no way it's hitting $200 Million like that quoted article said it might, but it probably does somewhere around that $150 Million I stated in reply, give or take about $5 Million.
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 11:13 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 16th): The Wokecercist seems to be doing pretty well overseas with over $40 Million of its $85 Million current total. It's made 283% of its production budget back so far, which already means that it's a winner. It's sitting at 21st place now if my previous statements on the top 20 are correct. I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 16th): The Wokecercist seems to be doing pretty well overseas with over $40 Million of its $85 Million current total. It's made 283% of its production budget back so far, which already means that it's a winner. It's sitting at 21st place now if my previous statements on the top 20 are correct. I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.
Thursday, November 9, 2023 12:27 AM
Thursday, November 9, 2023 6:14 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Well FNAF looks to have gained another $3 Million on Monday and Tuesday. With those kinds of numbers it should probably easily get $12 Million by Sunday night. It could possibly see its first sub-Million day or possibly two of them before the weekend, but it should be close to already having $5 Million before the weekend begins.
Sunday, November 12, 2023 11:09 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 7th): After the weekend and the international tally we're at $119.6 Million with a 44.2% Domestic / 55.8% International split on Killers. That's only $10 Million added to the International numbers from the previous weekend, so unless the numbers reporting is strange for this one, it's no longer doing very well overseas. Killers had its first sub-Million Domestic day on Monday with only $674k. At nearly $120 Million already I still think that grossing more moneythan Shazam II should be quite easy for Killers, but I still don't think it will beat $150 Million, or 75% of its production budget. At 60% of its production budget currently, it's moved up from last place on the 2023 list to 57th place, right behind Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken's 66%. My initial prediction for Killers was that it would match Ruby Gillman. That was before it did far better internationally than I thought it would. If it hits around my $150 Million target, it will move up to 53rd place for 2023, right above Strays, and considerably below Shazam II.
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 6th): Oppenheimer is still in play. Perhaps even Barbie too. It all depends on the International mood for FNAF on Weekend 3, since I don't imagine it making more than $10 to $15 Million more by next Sunday here in the states. If it got $12 Million by then, without International Numbers, it would be at 916%, which is only 28% behind Oppenheimer.
Sunday, November 12, 2023 7:12 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 7th): After the weekend and the international tally we're at $119.6 Million with a 44.2% Domestic / 55.8% International split on Killers. That's only $10 Million added to the International numbers from the previous weekend, so unless the numbers reporting is strange for this one, it's no longer doing very well overseas. Killers had its first sub-Million Domestic day on Monday with only $674k. At nearly $120 Million already I still think that grossing more moneythan Shazam II should be quite easy for Killers, but I still don't think it will beat $150 Million, or 75% of its production budget. At 60% of its production budget currently, it's moved up from last place on the 2023 list to 57th place, right behind Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken's 66%. My initial prediction for Killers was that it would match Ruby Gillman. That was before it did far better internationally than I thought it would. If it hits around my $150 Million target, it will move up to 53rd place for 2023, right above Strays, and considerably below Shazam II. $4,650,000 for the weekend, and $126,730,599 total worldwide. It's only fallen around 27% to 32% per week since the low initial box office and the massive first to second week drop, which really doesn't happen very often. It currently stands at 63.5% of the Production Budget. We'll see what the international numbers bring, but it should have grossed more than Shazam II and have a higher percentage than Ruby Gillman once they come in. Since the movie decided to grow some legs, I was probably wrong about $150 Million too. There's no way this thing is going to get its production budget back, but it might be closer to $200 Million than $150 Million worldwide depending on how long it's in theaters and if it can maintain some of the international take for another month or more.
Quote:Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 6th): Oppenheimer is still in play. Perhaps even Barbie too. It all depends on the International mood for FNAF on Weekend 3, since I don't imagine it making more than $10 to $15 Million more by next Sunday here in the states. If it got $12 Million by then, without International Numbers, it would be at 916%, which is only 28% behind Oppenheimer. It actually made more on Thursday than it did on Wednesday. That's pretty unusual, but it's likely do to Veterans day. It only had one sub-Million day this week. Projections for the weekend are in and it's another $9 Million, with the total for the week at $15,074,065, so just a little more than my high-end prediction if the projections are accurate. FNAF is now at 936%, which is only 12% behind Oppenheimer and 62% behind Barbie. It easily beats Oppenheimer once the international numbers roll in today or tomorrow. Will it get the $15 Million internationally it needs to beat Barbie this weekend too? Very likely, given that it doesn't look like it was released for streaming outside of the US (I'm only making an assumption here, but that's the only way I can explain the steep dropoff in the US while the international box office hasn't declined nearly as rapidly). It's gunning for Insidious now for 5th place.
Friday, November 17, 2023 7:27 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: It made $15 Million in the US and another $18 Million Worldwide this week. That actually was a fairly sizable drop on the International front from last weekend. It may or may not have the legs it needs to take 5th place, but because of a virtual 50/50 Domestic/International split, a 1,000% finish after the monster 2nd week drop in the states is still something they should be very happy about.
Sunday, November 19, 2023 4:48 PM
Monday, November 20, 2023 7:11 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 17th): FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place. ... It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023. There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year. Had they not made the nonsensical decision to stream it on Peacock in the US from day one, this thing might have beat M3GAN's 1,508% for 3rd place in 2023. That near 50/50 Domestic/International split may have been 65/35 otherwise. But what are you gonna do? The Suits are gonna Suit.
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 7:08 AM
Tuesday, November 21, 2023 6:33 PM
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 6:57 PM
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 10:04 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 17th): FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place. There must have been some stray internationals that came in late for that increase from 1,008% to 1,044% since FNAF is only getting a 4% bump for every Million with the $25 Million Production Budget and it's only made little over $1.5 Million domestic between Monday and Wednesday this week. So this probably means an extra $7 Million or so international on top of the $18 Million international recorded on Sunday. This would be more in line with what I would expect the movie to do from the previous weekend, with somewhere in the area of a 50% to 60% drop. It's kind of hard to tell on this one since this isn't the first week it's gotten international numbers updated piecemeal. It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023.
Quote:There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year.
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 10:15 PM
Thursday, November 23, 2023 11:18 AM
Thursday, November 23, 2023 1:16 PM
JAYNEZTOWN
Thursday, November 23, 2023 7:15 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: $28-$32 Million Domestic for a 5-day weekend is already a death sentence for Napoleon unless everybody else in the world goes out to see it like crazy.
Friday, November 24, 2023 2:08 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN: Sixstring seems to be better than the Weatehrman or the 401K guy on the phone...mostly
Quote:It has been interesting to watch 6IXSTRING's predictions and forecasts once cinema movies get their release I would say the majority of the time he gets it correct and does true predictions at anywhere between 70% to 90% of the time sometimes his projections are almost exactly right for each week
Quote:but he has got stuff wrong also there are movies that won't follow a normal trend or do their own thing with a unique financial path due to circumstance 6IXSTRING got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong He is correct to predict most of the Marvel DC failures but there have been exception to the rule such as Spider-Man No Way Home
Quote:Five Nights at Freddy's might have been a little difficult to forecast since its budget was hidden until the last moment, it did unusually well being a Horror and opening on the Halloween weekend but then had a strong drop of, however even on its second weekend with a smaller taking of $5,000,000 Friday and Saturday $8,636,000 + and a Sunday taking it was beating it budget during the second week also, the film was very cheap at $20 million Many predicted Shazam! Fury of the Gods would fail and predicted The Marvels would flop not just 6IXSTRING the word was out it was a bad movie.
Friday, November 24, 2023 10:29 PM
Saturday, November 25, 2023 6:25 AM
Saturday, November 25, 2023 10:24 AM
Quote:How hard do you have to work to earn $60m in just three years? The answer, for Phoebe Waller-Bridge, at least, is not very hard at all. In 2019 the Emmy-winning creator of the hit TV show Fleabag signed a $20m-a-year deal with Amazon Studios. Originally, she was supposed to collaborate with Donald Glover on a series based on the 2005 movie Mr and Mrs Smith, but she reportedly left the show after a few months because of clashing creative styles. No worries, Amazon said, you can work on a Tomb Raider series instead. However, the Hollywood Reporter notes, since a showrunner (the person who has overall creative authority over a show) was also being hired, it’s questionable just how much work would actually be needed by the Fleabag creator. In short: Waller-Bridge has collected $60m from Amazon over the last few years without ever making a new show.
Quote:There certainly seems to be a lot of that going on lately. Waller-Bridge is far from the only creative to be being paid big bucks for doing very little. In 2020, Harry and Meghan signed a multi-year Netflix deal, worth a reported $100m. “Our focus will be on creating content that informs but also gives hope,” the couple said at the time. No doubt Netflix is hoping that, once they’re done mining their personal lives for views, they’ll come up with some decent original content. So far it’s not clear that will be the case. Their most recent output was a seven-episode series called Live to Lead – dry profiles on Greta Thunberg, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Gloria Steinem – which was released on Netflix on 31 December with little fanfare and almost no reviews. Netflix has also cancelled Meghan’s animated series called Pearl, amid cutbacks.
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 12:35 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Oh shit... The game has changed completely here, regarding FNAF! My rule from the start is that I always use Bruce's Production Budget number for a movie when he has made it available before going to alternative sources such as BoxOfficeMojo or Deadline/Variety. Bruce didn't have the PB for FNAF before, but I just noticed today that he must have added that info in and the budget according to him is only $20 Million, and not $25 Million. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=summary Forget everything I said before about whether or not it beats The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place because it already has. FNAF now has a 1,450% for WW Gross vs. Production Budget. Not only is it in 4th place, but by the end of this weekend it's easily going to take 3rd place from M3GAN (which is at 1,508%). We're now looking at a possibility that FNAF even displaces Sound of Freedom for 2nd place. It would need a WW Gross of $342 Million to break even with SoF, and $343 Million to beat it (Assuming SoF doesn't make another $1 Million Internationally). I don't think this is a real possibility, but this movie has been nothing if not full of surprises up until this point. -------------------------------------------------- Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 10:18 PM
Sunday, December 3, 2023 7:36 PM
Quote:The bottom line is that a diverse slate of films are performing well this weekend, and making up for some notable underperformances from major studio films in recent weeks. If that’s broadening the audience of moviegoers beyond its regular demographics, that’s surely good news going into the end of the year.
Monday, December 4, 2023 4:00 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: FNAF just got up to $299 Million. Not sure if that's it for internationals or not for the week. That gets it up to 1,495%. It will beat M3GAN over the weekend either way. -------------------------------------------------- Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
Thursday, December 7, 2023 12:13 AM
Friday, December 8, 2023 8:38 AM
Friday, December 8, 2023 9:25 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN: Japan not Hollywood $11,500,000 aprox opening 42 Million Worldwide Budget $15 million and yet it has huge box office special fx cgi if we go by the SixString Budget X 2.5 rule it would need to make 37.5 Million to start profit https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31519-godzilla-minus-one-japan-11323-north-america-12123-wide-release/page/2/#comments
Saturday, December 9, 2023 9:31 AM
Saturday, December 9, 2023 1:44 PM
Sunday, December 10, 2023 8:38 PM
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 2:48 AM
Friday, December 15, 2023 6:38 AM
Friday, December 15, 2023 10:07 AM
Quote:Originally posted by second: An Older Example of a Hollywood Failure. The Last Emperor (1987) sold $44,005,435 in tickets but cost $25,000,000 to make. It lost money. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Last-Emperor-The-(1987)#tab=summary But The Last Emperor won 9 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Emperor#Accolades Critics highly praised The Last Emperor. https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-last-emperor/
Quote:And the Pirates recently appreciated the old movie. It was restored in 4K in 2023 to its original 2.35:1 aspect ratio rather than cinematographer Vittorio Storaro’s preference for a cropped 2:1 version.
Friday, December 15, 2023 11:30 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Most Oscar Winning pictures aren't made for people who pay to see movies, and if they cost a lot of money to make they lose money. With inflation included, The Last Emperor cost $67,572,843 to make in 2023, which isn't even a huge budget compared to today's Oscar-bait movies like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon which both cost $200 Million to make. At $44 Million in Box Office receipts, it grossed $118,928,204, or roughly 176% of the production budget. Under today's 2.5x Rule of Thumb it would have been a huge loser, but since the RoT was only 2 times before Bidenflation kicked in it's reasonable to assume* that all the way back in 1987 it was even less than that and this one at least was close to breaking even, specifically because of its low production budget.
Friday, December 15, 2023 12:06 PM
Quote:Originally posted by second: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Most Oscar Winning pictures aren't made for people who pay to see movies, and if they cost a lot of money to make they lose money. With inflation included, The Last Emperor cost $67,572,843 to make in 2023, which isn't even a huge budget compared to today's Oscar-bait movies like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon which both cost $200 Million to make. At $44 Million in Box Office receipts, it grossed $118,928,204, or roughly 176% of the production budget. Under today's 2.5x Rule of Thumb it would have been a huge loser, but since the RoT was only 2 times before Bidenflation kicked in it's reasonable to assume* that all the way back in 1987 it was even less than that and this one at least was close to breaking even, specifically because of its low production budget.Lawrence of Arabia (1962) won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography/Sound/Music and it made a profit but audiences don't usually care about movies that are real. Oppenheimer is the most recent exception. The Last Emperor, Napoleon, and The Killers of the Flower Moon are all real people, so all three went down the toilet. Some say that Lawrence fictionalized his story about his time in Arabia and the movie looked like a feverish dream with heat shimmering off the sands, so maybe Lawrence of Arabia is not about a real person but more a fiction/fantasy/horror movie, which explains why it made money. I'm still unsure why Oppenheimer made money because it is talk-talk-talk with very few explosions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_of_Arabia_(film)#Awards_and_honours https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lawrence-of-Arabia#tab=summary The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Friday, December 15, 2023 11:06 PM
Saturday, December 16, 2023 5:16 PM
Sunday, December 17, 2023 4:56 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: I don't think it's making $40 Million.
Quote:I believe that its international box office should more than double from its $43 Million opening weekend outside of the US pretty easily. Most films that aren't complete failures generally tend to double their opening weekend within the next 7 days internationally, and with it opening in Australia, France, Italy Poland, New Zealand and other countries on top of that, I think an additional $50 to $55 Million is probably in the cards for the international numbers once they're reconciled. Wonka will probably end up somewhere between $130 and $140 Million after this weekend with the new international numbers.
Monday, December 18, 2023 12:18 PM
Sunday, December 24, 2023 2:22 PM
Monday, December 25, 2023 4:18 PM
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 11:13 AM
WHOZIT
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 12:14 PM
Quote:Originally posted by whozit: https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024 This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 1:39 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Quote:Originally posted by whozit: https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024 This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look. Any bets on which will be the big ones? That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability). We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses. -------------------------------------------------- Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 2:43 PM
Quote:Originally posted by whozit: Quote:Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: Quote:Originally posted by whozit: https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024 This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look. Any bets on which will be the big ones? That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability). We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses. -------------------------------------------------- Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face. Joker 2, Ghostbusters 4 and Deadpool 3 will likely do well, they have built in fan bases, there may be some surprises.
Quote:The Fall Guy looks like fun, it may do well. BUT, 2024 is an election year, I'm sure somebody will shoot their mouth off chase off some audience members.
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