Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers by 6ixStringJack

How many cliche tropes in Creator

Super expensive production, the movie months are competitive while the economy sucks, some paranoid are going back to cinemas now that Covid restrictions but then Biden blabs about a new variant and vaccinations, war on tv 24/7 politics and elections on tv.

Did The Creator Bomb At The Box Office? Breaking Down Its $32M Opening & Why It Matters So Much
https://screenrant.com/the-creator-movie-box-office-opening-weekend-pe
rformance-flop/
The Creator's box office performance could determine whether movie studios continue to take risks on original stories. Is it a bomb or a hit?

Why would anyone find the plot annoying, another marxist bolshevik revolution message, Soldier Lone Wolf and Cub Child Duo, confused Rambo 3 messages Terrorists Are not bad maybe good Rebels and Our Freedom Fighters and they like McDonalds and Freedom Fries, more repeating themes like the cliche GoldenChild stupidfuckingRobokid and a guy that has to protect them, America is once again at war with AI robots, time jumps flash forwards and flashbacks and cuts to five years later, nukes San Francisco and Los Angeles like Battlestar Terminator and every other AI movie, a traumatized ex-soldier who’s mourning the loss of bla bla, Chosen One magic-cave robot thing, Asia Orient robot girl, the main antagonist if its American or German it always has a British accent but no Evil Brit Alan Rickman.

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, October 19, 2023 11:03 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Did The Creator Bomb At The Box Office? Breaking Down Its $32M Opening & Why It Matters So Much
https://screenrant.com/the-creator-movie-box-office-opening-weekend-pe
rformance-flop/

Yes. The Creator bombed at the box office.

Sure, that's easy for me to say now that it's 17 days after this article was written and it only yesterday finally made 100% of its Production Budget back worldwide, but had I been paying attention to my charts I could have answered that question the day it was asked.

It cost $80 Million to make. It grossed $32 Million Worldwide on Opening Weekend. That's 40% of its budget. How did other movies in this range do?

Quote:
34. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
35. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
36. AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
37. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
38. Blue Beetle / Budget: $120,000,000 / WWO: $44,000,000 / 37%

- 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million.

- Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 127% of its production budget of $300 Million.

- AIR only made 127% of its production budget of $70 Million.

- Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million.

- Blue Beetle made 108% of its production budget of $120 Million.

NOTES:
1. All of these movies at least made their production budget back.
2. None of these movies broke even using either 2.0x or 2.5x RoT.
3. Every one of these movies was a loss for the studio.

Quote:
The Creator's box office performance could determine whether movie studios continue to take risks on original stories. Is it a bomb or a hit?

The studios need to not make the mistake of learning the wrong lesson here. PEOPLE WANT NEW SHIT! They just don't want your woke ideology and Leftist agenda shoved in their faces anymore.

You already know that people are bored of your little comic book universe cash cows, and that's even more evident because movies that aren't woke in the genre are failing too. (See my glowing Flash review). Don't keep making cape flicks or re-making classics and think it's going to turn out any better for you if you just dial down the woke. It's not going to work.

Interesting note... ScreenRant is staffed by some pretty woke trash people who are going to tell you things like "Blue Beetle is doing great at the box office" for as long as they can until it got destroyed by Math and they couldn't lie about it anymore, but they were pretty brutally honest about this one's chances in that article. They also are now making the claim that 2.5x RoT is the standard these days. So that's one more movie website that is making this claim in 2023. I think I'm pretty convinced now that this should be the new rule of thumb since the Left Leaning movie sites like ScreenRant, Deadline and Variety are all seeming to make this claim now. Not good news for the Studios in 2023.

From the article Jaynez posted:

Quote:
In spite of its disappointing opening weekend, there’s still a chance that The Creator can become a moderate hit, but it’s very unlikely. The general rule of thumb is that movies need to gross 2.5 times their production budget to turn a profit after marketing costs and exhibitors’ percentages have been taken into account. This means that The Creator will have to gross somewhere in the $160-200 million range to avoid being labeled a flop. The Creator would need serious legs at the box office to make the journey from a $32.3 million opening weekend to a $200 million final figure.

$160 Million is 2.0x. $200 Million is 2.5x.

The Creator's run is hardly finished. It still grossed $575k on Cheap Seat Tuesday this week, and there's a pretty good chance it grosses over $1 Million at least one day this weekend, or will come very close to that.

But 2 weeks from now it will be making pennies, and a few million here or there isn't going to save it from being a huge flop. If it's EXTREMELY lucky, after international numbers are finally settled it grosses $120 Million worldwide. However, my guess is somewhere in the $95 to $100 Million range when it exits theaters.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, October 19, 2023 11:23 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Warner bros DC fail, Disney Marvel crashing

It appears that The Marvels is possibly set to be the lowest earning Marvel movie yet. Audience tracking is terrible and I've heard rumor that Brie Larson is done with Carol Danvers and has no interest in ever playing the character again.

Also, it appears that by 2027 Marvel intends to find some way to bring back all of the original Avengers cast because they know that Marvel sucks without them. I don't think anybody is going to care by 2027, but it would probably make a few bucks if they can have reasonable budgets.

Warner Bros. itself is still doing great, despite the DC flops. They did have mega-hit Barbie to cover ALL of their losses this year and then some. I haven't updated my lists since September 10th, but at that point WB was in 2nd place out of all the studios in terms of money made after 2.0x RoT ($1,144,457,526) and even with the more likely 2.5x RoT they've still made $730,207,526.

In fact, even with 2.5x RoT, Warner Bros. has MADE almost $200,000,000 more than Disney has LOST in 2023.

The numbers, obviously, will be a bit different when I update the lists since it's been 5 weeks, but I can't imagine everyone's fortunes have changed all that much since. Disney hasn't even put out another big movie since my last update. I can't recall off the top of my head if WB did or not.

But yeah... DC is dead.

They need to retire comic book movies for about a decade, regroup, learn from how Marvel through Phase 3 was such a success, learn why Marvel after Phase 3 ruined the genre, and learn from DC how not to do anything.

Quote:
Sound of Freedom making big sales

Taylor Swift making money

Yeah. Sound of Freedom ended up losing badly to Talk To Me's $4.5 Million budget, but nobody was going to compete with a surprise mega-hit movie like that with such a tiny budget that made over 2,000% of it worldwide. It's number 2 now at over 1,600% of production budget worldwide and I don't think anything is going to come close to touching that this year. I'm not going to count concert movies because of their ridiculously unfair advantage to regular movies, so Taylor Swift isn't going to get first place even if the budget was only $10 Million and the total worldwide gross ends up being over $200 Million. Swifts' concert thing will be in competition only with Beyonce's concert thing.

Quote:
‘Five Nights At Freddy’s’ Getting Ready For Second Best Debut At The Fall Box Office With Around $40M
https://deadline.com/2023/10/five-nights-at-freddys-box-office-project
ion-1235577413/

I could see that. There's surprisingly deep lore to this franchise, and the kids love it.

Is it going to be any good? Who knows? Even horror movies that are trash have followings and tend to make money because of their small budgets. (See: Exorcist: Believer)

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 21, 2023 1:16 PM

Wokecercist: Believer cracks $90 Million on Friday night.

As of Friday night, it's at 303% of its budget. After tonight, it should have plenty to beat Meg 2: The Trench at 305%. Assuming Meg 2 was still in 20th place with going on 6 weeks without updates to the charts in the OP, it will be bumped out of the Top 20 by Believer tonight.

It's slowing down quite a bit, and next weekend sees the release of Five Nights at Freddies which is going to annihilate it, but that's the benefits of being small-to-mid budget. Even at a higher than otherwise justifiable cost of $30 Million for this boring woke turd, every $1 Million it rakes in is another 3.33% bump to the final total.

Not including whatever it's made in the last week overseas, it will end the weekend at around 313% of the budget with the Domestic weekend complete.

It would need to get over 405% to break the Top 15, which probably isn't very likely now with FNAF out next weekend, but to be more profitable than Guardians of the Galaxy 3 was, it will only need another 25% or around $7 to $8 Million, which should be no problem.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 21, 2023 8:50 PM

Two posts about Killers of the Flower Moon from the Taylor Swift Concert Thing thread...

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
OCTOBER 20TH

Bruce is calling it a coin flip.

His prediction for both of them are around $32 Million over the weekend. He's giving first place to Killers of the Flower Moon with $32.9 Million and 2nd to Eras Tour with a flat $32 Million. He doesn't seem very convinced with either of those predictions though.

I still think he's way off base here...

Deadline reports this now: https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-fl
ower-moon-1235579033/

Quote:
UPDATED, FRIDAY MIDDAY: AMC‘s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is currently looking to hold onto the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office with a second estimated Friday of $10.25 million, off 73% week over week, for what’s looking like a second weekend around $32 million at 3,855 theaters, -66%. That’s a very similar second-weekend decline to Disney’s 2008 concert film Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert. The running total for Eras Tour by EOD Sunday would be $130.7M.

Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening. Some rival distribs even have it higher.

Once again, I don't know where Bruce is getting $32 Million for Killers on opening weekend. Nobody else is coming close to that number. The highest prediction I've seen was only $24 Million.

Deadline doesn't cite its sources here, but they seem pretty confident in stating that the "estimated Friday of $10.25 Million" is correct. I don't know if AMC is saying this, and/or they have all the presale/online sale data at their fingertips, and/or a 3rd party is stating this or what.

Quote:
Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.

Even with a 66% drop, Taylor's thing still makes $31.5 Million over the weekend and I haven't even seen a Killers' prediction saying that anything close to $30 Million was in the cards.

This prediction still stands despite what Bruce has to say on the matter.

And I have to make a note to laugh out loud at the coverage both Eras Tour and Killers are getting in the Legacy Media, in particular that Deadline article.

For one, while Eras Tour still is smashing concert records, it will have done CONSIDERABLY LESS business both Domestic and Worldwide than all the Lefty media outfits had claimed it would in the months leading up to where we are now. So watching them just slather on the praise and tout the record breaking feat itself while never calling themselves out for how disappointing the REAL numbers are compared to their earlier predictions is priceless.

And they really need to stop saying things about Killers like "Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening."

No. There is NOTHING that looks "pretty good" about this with its $200 Million budget.

Killers is set to be the biggest flop of Martin Scorsese's storied career, and my prediction in the Hollywood thread from October 18th still stands. This movie is going to make around $70 Million less than the $200 Million Production budget, meaning that it's going to lose Paramount Pictures and Apple around $370 Million by the time it's out of the Box Office. We're talking an Indiana Jones 5 level, catastrophic event here.

And even if somehow I'm just completely wrong about this and it manages to bank $230 Million instead of only $130 Million worldwide, it still loses the studio $270 Million. There is zero chance that anybody involved in the production of Killers gets out of this without losing a ton of money. (Except, ironically, the actors and the writers and anybody of the hourly wage employees who got paid up front to do a job).

Why does Deadline always lie like this, and why does anybody take them seriously anymore?

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
OCTOBER 21ST

Friday Previews are in...

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour - $10,400,000

This is a -72% drop from last Friday, and it appears that Bruce calculates this drop using the entire Friday figure which includes the first week's Thursday night previews.

i.e.: Last Friday's Era's Tour number was $37,525,947, which includes the $2,800,000 it got in previews Thursday night. The percent decrease of $37,525,947 down to this Friday's estimated $10,400,000 is -72.285%.

What does this mean? / Why is this important?

Well, if you look at other big movies this year, you will probably come to the same conclusion as me that from the 3rd weekend onward the percent drop from the previous Friday/Saturday/Sunday bounces around quite a bit between those days and doesn't necessarily make any reliable pattern. I would say that in general I believe the Friday drop ends up being a little higher than the Saturday/Sunday drops, but without any seriously in-depth analysis of this, that's just a guess made off of skimming a few big movies that came out this year and isn't a hard rule. Overall though, I'd say it's relatively even. Except for in the case of "kid friendly/family friendly" movies, which I'd consider Eras Tour to fall under. (See also: The Super Mario example just below).

The glaring difference in any movie is the first Friday drop, which is always much higher than the Saturday/Sunday drops. This is because those Thursday previews are counted as Friday dollars.

2nd Weekend Drop Examples:

Oppenheimer: F: 59% / Sat: 31% / Sun: 35%
Barbie: F: 59% / Sat: 28% / Sun: 33%
Super Mario: F: 59% / Sat: 31% / Sun: 12%

Eras Tour ACTUAL Friday last week was only $35,245,947 when you remove the Thursday night previews of $2,800,000. This leaves the actual drop from last Friday night to -70.493%.

That's still quite high, and obviously higher than the -66% drop that was predicted both before and after the Friday projections came out.

Can it claw its way back to the -66% drop predicted? I think it will. Not only is there a good amount of kids/family audience to this thing, but it made about $3 Million less on last Saturday than it did on Friday, and about $12 Million less on last Sunday than it did on Friday. It has a much lower bar to meet, especially on Sunday.

Killers of the Flower Moon: $6,800,000 (when you subtract the $2,600,000 Thurs. Previews from $9,400,000)

So... When calculating Opening Weekend totals, the Thursday night previews ARE included in that final number. Why did I subtract them? To get a better picture of what the Saturday and Sunday numbers are going to be.

If we were to erroneously make a guess for the rest of the weekend based off of $9,400,000 on Friday night, we'd come up with a number much higher than reality and we might be saying "This thing might actually crack $30 Million this weekend if it's lucky".

It won't.

I'm going to look at Oppenheimer for the model of my prediction for the weekend here. With Thursday previews included in the Friday number, it dropped 21% on Saturday and another 12% on Sunday.

Applying those drops to Killers and we get the following:

Thursday: $2,600,000
Friday: $6,800,000
Saturday: $7,426,000 (-21% of $9,400,000)
Sunday: $6,534,880 (-12% of $7,426,000)

TOTAL: $23,360,880

That's my prediction based off of Thursday Previews and Friday's Projections, so whoever guessed $24 Million going into this weekend was pretty much spot-on.

Now... It may have actually made as much as $25 Million and change even if the projections match the above numbers come tomorrow afternoon. As I've noted before, the Studios like to low-ball projections early in a film's life as not to embarrass themselves.

I'd say that a range between $22 Million and $26 Million as the final Domestic Opening Weekend Number is a good range to allow for error in my only using Oppenheimer's 1st weekend performance as the model.

What does that mean for the question of who wins this weekend?

Well Taylor dropped 15% on Saturday and 27% on Sunday last week. But really, because of Thursday previews being added to the Friday number, it only dropped 9.2% on Saturday before dropping 27% on Sunday last week. We'll call it 10%.

And even though it came back into theaters on Thursday after a 3-day hiatus it doesn't get the benefit of adding Thursday's $5.9 Million take to its weekend total because it wasn't opening weekend previews (because that's just how this works).

So... using last week's daily drops as the only real reference to work with we get the following:

Friday: $10,400,000
Saturday: $9,360,000 (-10% of Friday)
Sunday: $6,832,800 (-27% of Saturday)

TOTAL: $26,592,800

Unless the above predictions are insanely off base, Eras wins the weekend by either eeking out the win or having a comfortable lead of up to around the $3 to 4 Million range, and there's no scenario where Killers wins the weekend.

Either way, a hugely disappointing weekend for both productions. This will be Scorsese's largest financial flop of his life, and the Eras Tour is going to do worse than even the lowest 2nd weekend predictions out there going into the weekend, making this two weekends in a row where it under-performed Media expectations.

I'm going to give myself a little bit of cushion here, especially on the Killers movie because Paramount/Apple have an incentive to lowball the predictions. I think I'll give it to Eras Tour as well because of the fact that AMC was not in charge of projections last weekend it ended up being the only movie I can ever recall that actually had lower final numbers on opening weekend than was projected. I've heard that AMC gave the Friday night projection this week, so I'm assuming they don't want that mistake repeated.

My final predictions for top 2 this weekend:

1. Taylor Swift: Eras Tour: $27.5 Million

2. Killers of the Flower Moon: $25 Million

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 21, 2023 9:22 PM

I wanted to make sure that I put my thoughts on the Killers of the Flower moon in this thread so it didn't just get lost with the Taylor Swift thing in a few weeks when that fades away.

There's something really fishy going on with this movie.

Take a look at Google and see if you can find ANY publications that are calling a flop a flop here.

I found ONE. Singular. The Filmik. I've never even heard of them before. They're the only ones who are being honest about this movie.

Here's their article from October 15th:

Killers of the Flower Moon Box Office Prediction: Forecasting a Flop $35 Million Debut

https://www.thefilmik.com/killers-of-the-flower-moon-box-office-predic
tion/

Quote:
After the massive success of Universal’s ‘Oppenheimer,’ Paramount and Apple Studios are ready to release their epic drama ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ with great expectations, which will be screened in theaters on Friday[1]. The R-rated boasts a strong cast and director, including Martin Scorsese, DiCaprio, and De Niro, which is a big plus point and holds significant promise. The makers have too high expectations for the film, and these expectations have increased even more since the critics have given it the green light. But despite these advantages, perhaps it will not impress the makers at the box office.

One of the major factors is the critical response and buzz, which are very positive for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.’ However, despite these positive factors and the presence of well-established cast and crew members, pre-ticket sales numbers are not up to par, indicating a slow start. According to industry estimates, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is projected to earn $35-40 million on its opening weekend domestically across 3500+ theaters, which is considered a disappointing debut for a big-budgeted film, especially for an R-rated film. ‘Oppenheimer’ was projected to earn $50 million and opened with $82 million, but there’s no indication that ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ will perform similarly due to a lack of quality buzz.

According to reports, Apple Studios and Paramount Pictures spent $200 million on the production of ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.’ With such a huge production budget, the recovery numbers are automatically set too high. As of now, despite receiving positive reviews and featuring a high-profile cast, the ability to recover its costs is in question as the film’s performance in both domestic and overseas markets is a disappointment. According to industry sources, the full theatrical run is projected to reach $125 million domestically and $250 million globally, which would be considered a disaster.

There is no doubt that ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is headed for a box office failure, as per early box office predictions. Not only is it a failure, but it also has the potential to become one of the biggest losses for the makers in 2023. Paramount has already faced significant failures, including ‘Mission Impossible 7,’ ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves,’ and ‘Babylon.’ Another failure increases production concerns. As for Apple Studios, it would be wise to consider limiting themselves to streaming or producing smaller films, as all of their theatrical releases up to now have been unsuccessful.

However, many social media users and reports are comparing it to ‘Oppenheimer,’ which is not the right thing to do. Regardless of how brilliant ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is, the industry thrives on profitability. ‘Oppenheimer’ tops the list as one of the industry’s most successful R-rated films, while ‘Killers of the Flower Moon‘ is struggling for success. Even if the film is excellent, if the audience doesn’t want to watch it in theaters, it’s a total disappointment for the makers. But despite all of this, we can only hope that the film will avoid losses, if not turn a profit.

Impossible. It will not avoid massive financial losses. The $35 to $40 Million Domestic Opening Weekend that the one honest article about this movie being a flop predicted isn't even what happened. As you can see in earlier posts, this movie is lucky if it grosses $24 to $25 Million Domestic.

But then you get most of the articles giving this movie the "The Little Mermaid" treatment after opening night. Look at this title from Variety.com:

Box Office: ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Blossoms With $9.4 Million Opening Day, Taylor Swift Still Projecting No. 1

https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/killers-of-the-flower-moon-op
ening-day-taylor-swift-eras-tour-1235763786/

"Blossoms?"

At least they mention the monstrous $200 Million budget, but they run defense on it by basically saying "It's alright. This movie wasn't expected to make any money, bruh.".

Quote:
“Killers of the Flower Moon” sports a colossal $200 million production budget, but it’s not like those behind the feature are banking on a hefty profit from tickets. Apple, which backed the project, is planning to invest in theatrical runs for its original slate as a means to promote their eventual streaming releases. “Flower Moon” is the first high-profile rodeo in movie theaters for the company, which has partnered with Paramount Pictures to handle domestic distribution. Apple will take another stab at theatrical later this fall with “Napoleon,” partnering with Sony for Ridley Scott’s similarly mega-budgeted war feature.

And this is what I hear people parroting elsewhere. Apple did this on purpose to get in the Awards business. They never intended to make any money on this movie. You just don't get it.

That rhetoric sounds an awful lot like Disney's playbook as of late, and makes just as little sense. Just swap out "Awards Whoring" for "Woke Agenda" and all you're looking at is a movie that is going to bomb so hard that it will do worse than nearly every massive Disney flop in 2023 save for Indiana Jones 5.

And then, Variety further runs defense for Killers by stating the following:

Quote:
For what it’s worth, “Flower Moon” is tracking ahead of the opening for Scorsese’s last Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration “The Wolf of Wall Street.” That sprawling comedy debuted with $18 million in late December, but rode the holiday season and awards buzz to a $116 million finish in North America.

The Wolf on Wall Street made $18,410,067 on opening weekend, to be exact. It also went on to make $116,949,183 Domestically, and $389,816,136 Worldwide by the end of its run.

This was back in 2013, a FULL 10 YEARS AGO.

With inflation, $18,410,067 in 2023 is $24,323,871.41 today. $116,949,183 in 2013 is $154,516,379 today. $389,816,136 in 2023 is $515,035,473.00 today.

The Wolf on Wall Street was a half a BILLION Dollar movie in 2023 dollars.

BEST CASE SCENARIO, Killers matches on opening weekend what The Wolf on Wall Street made when inflation is taken into account.

Oh... and what was the Production Budget for Wolf? $100,000,000. $132,122,666, actually, when taking inflation into account. Still INSANELY expensive for what it was, but back then a studio only needed to do 2 times the budget to break even, and with $515 Million worldwide, it made $254 Million more than the $264 Million break even point.

And Wolf did MASSIVE numbers internationally. The $116,949,183 it made in the US was only 30% of the Worldwide take. 70% of this movies income was outside of the US!

There is no way that is happening with Killers internationally. The Wolf on Wall Street resonated so well with people around the world because of the disproportionate power that Wall Street has over the world economy, and we were just finally overcoming the last huge market meltdown and worldwide recession by 2013.

Nobody outside of the US is going to give a single shit about an FBI drama that takes place in Oklahoma in 1920. It's not as if nobody is going to go see it. I'm sure that life-long Scorsese and DiCaprio fans outside of the US are happy to see another collab between them. But we're talking maybe 25%-30% of its worldwide take being international for Killers when compared to Wolf's 70%.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, October 22, 2023 2:21 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Once again, I don't know where Bruce is getting $32 Million for Killers on opening weekend. Nobody else is coming close to that number. The highest prediction I've seen was only $24 Million.

...

Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.

...

This prediction still stands despite what Bruce has to say on the matter.

...

If we were to erroneously make a guess for the rest of the weekend based off of $9,400,000 on Friday night, we'd come up with a number much higher than reality and we might be saying "This thing might actually crack $30 Million this weekend if it's lucky".

It won't.

I'm going to look at Oppenheimer for the model of my prediction for the weekend here. With Thursday previews included in the Friday number, it dropped 21% on Saturday and another 12% on Sunday.

Applying those drops to Killers and we get the following:

Thursday: $2,600,000
Friday: $6,800,000
Saturday: $7,426,000 (-21% of $9,400,000)
Sunday: $6,534,880 (-12% of $7,426,000)

TOTAL: $23,360,880

That's my prediction based off of Thursday Previews and Friday's Projections, so whoever guessed $24 Million going into this weekend was pretty much spot-on.

Now... It may have actually made as much as $25 Million and change even if the projections match the above numbers come tomorrow afternoon. As I've noted before, the Studios like to low-ball projections early in a film's life as not to embarrass themselves.

I'd say that a range between $22 Million and $26 Million as the final Domestic Opening Weekend Number is a good range to allow for error in my only using Oppenheimer's 1st weekend performance as the model.

...

I'm going to give myself a little bit of cushion here, especially on the Killers movie because Paramount/Apple have an incentive to lowball the predictions. I think I'll give it to Eras Tour as well because of the fact that AMC was not in charge of projections last weekend it ended up being the only movie I can ever recall that actually had lower final numbers on opening weekend than was projected. I've heard that AMC gave the Friday night projection this week, so I'm assuming they don't want that mistake repeated.

My final predictions for top 2 this weekend:

1. Taylor Swift: Eras Tour: $27.5 Million

2. Killers of the Flower Moon: $25 Million

Still no projections for Eras Tour, but the projections for Killers Opening Weekend including Thursday previews are in and it's $23 Million even.

I probably should have just gone with my Oppenheimer model that came up with $23,360,880.

Still though, I think the number will be higher once the actual counts come in by tomorrow afternoon. They probably didn't lowball it by a full $2 Million though.

But yeah. Bruce was out of his mind when he predicted $32 Million for Killers. This movie is DOA now even if the International numbers aren't complete shit.

Taylor's Eras Tour easily wins 1st place this weekend no matter how good or bad Saturday/Sunday is compared to Friday's 70%+ dropoff, but it's not going to get anywhere near the $32.9 Million Bruce predicted either.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, October 22, 2023 2:37 PM

Something weird is going on with Eras Tour now.

Both Bruce and Box Office Mojo are showing $31 Million for the weekend currently, both more or less matching what the Legacy Media is saying about this weekend's performance on sites such as Variety and Deadline, but they're not doing it in their traditional way.

BOM Archive: https://archive.ph/IJn7Y
The-Numbers Archive: https://archive.ph/IJn7Y

Deadline claims $32 Million:

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-fl
ower-moon-1235579033/

TheWrap claims $31 Million:

https://www.thewrap.com/taylor-swift-eras-tour-killers-flower-moon-box
-office/

So what's weird about this?

Both BOM and The-Numbers have added an additional $20 Million to their Domestic and Worldwide totals already, but neither site has put the daily projections for either Saturday or Sunday yet. I've never seen this happen before.

Frankly, I think the claim that this did $31-$32 Million based off of Friday's $10,400,000 previews and didn't do in the area of $27-$28 Million is absurd.

I wonder if any of these websites that rushed to put on that news are going to correct themselves when it didn't make what they're claiming it made.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, October 23, 2023 6:47 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm going to look at Oppenheimer for the model of my prediction for the weekend here. With Thursday previews included in the Friday number, it dropped 21% on Saturday and another 12% on Sunday.

Applying those drops to Killers and we get the following:

Thursday: $2,600,000
Friday: $6,800,000
Saturday: $7,426,000 (-21% of $9,400,000)
Sunday: $6,534,880 (-12% of $7,426,000)

TOTAL: $23,360,880

That's my prediction based off of Thursday Previews and Friday's Projections, so whoever guessed $24 Million going into this weekend was pretty much spot-on.

The Oppenheimer Model was just about perfect.

The verified weekend total for Killers was $23,253,655. Just $107k off.

Using Taylor Swift's first weekend to predict the 2nd weekend wasn't accurate at all. Instead of falling 10% from Friday to Saturday, it rose 27%. It did fall 28% from Saturday to Sunday, only 1% off of what I thought it would, but since it made so much more on Saturday it ended up making $33,209,039 over weekend 2, which was more than $6.5 Million above what the model said and about $5.5 Million more than my final prediction was.

Quote:
Friday: $10,400,000
Saturday: $9,360,000 (-10% of Friday)
Sunday: $6,832,800 (-27% of Saturday)

TOTAL: $26,592,800

I don't know why there was all the shady reporting with the numbers this weekend, but it does appear that I was wrong.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, October 26, 2023 9:43 AM

The Rock's $393 Million Black Adam Failure Doesn't Look So Bad 1 Year Later
https://screenrant.com/black-adam-box-office-flop-dwayne-johnson-dc-ch
anged/

Jonathan Majors assault trial set after judge denies motion to dismiss case
https://www.aol.com/jonathan-majors-assault-trial-set-162136457.html

Elemental was written off as a flop when it opened, bumovie overcame the odds and proved to be a hit. Now, Pixar's Pete Docter points to Disney+ as being responsible for damaging the brand.
https://toonado.com/disney/pixar-boss-addresses-elementals-unexpected-
success-and-takes-aim-at-disney-for-studios-woes-a8055

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, October 26, 2023 12:29 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
The Rock's $393 Million Black Adam Failure Doesn't Look So Bad 1 Year Later
https://screenrant.com/black-adam-box-office-flop-dwayne-johnson-dc-ch
anged/

I know, right.

Quote:
Jonathan Majors assault trial set after judge denies motion to dismiss case
https://www.aol.com/jonathan-majors-assault-trial-set-162136457.html

I got no opinion on this one. Is it some more residual #MeToo bullshit, or did he really beat on some girl? I wasn't there. I'd never see any bullshit Marvel movie he was in, let alone one they'd make in his absence anyhow. Whatever happens to this guy has no bearing on my life whatsoever. Either way this falls, may justice be served.

Quote:
Elemental was written off as a flop when it opened, bumovie overcame the odds and proved to be a hit. Now, Pixar's Pete Docter points to Disney+ as being responsible for damaging the brand.
https://toonado.com/disney/pixar-boss-addresses-elementals-unexpected-
success-and-takes-aim-at-disney-for-studios-woes-a8055

It did not prove to be a hit. I don't know why they keep lying about things like this other than most people don't know how to math.

What Elemental did is make a really good comeback against all odds after a terrible opening weekend and hang in there long enough to almost certainly break even. On a $200 Million budget, its current numbers (which are likely VERY close to its final numbers) are $488,174,360, which is not quite the 2.5x it needed to break even on the 2.5x RoT scale. Even if it was still a very minor loss for Dinsey/Pixar, it avoided what looked to be a catastrophic loss of several hundred million dollars right out of the gate. Disney has nearly $800 Million worth of losses at the Box Office so far with several amazingly terrible flops, and only one big-budget movie that brought in a profit at all. They've got to be REALLY happy with that end result for Elemental now, even if this movie didn't actually make any money for either company.

There will be no money made from merchandising. No kids are going to be buying up Elemental toys like they did Toy Story toys. DVD and BluRay doesn't make much at all in current year. It is now playing on a streaming service that loses hundreds of millions of dollars every quarter.

What they need to do is shutter Disney+ for good and start licensing these movies out to superior streaming services like Netflix/Amazon/Apple if they ever want to start clawing themselves out of the hole they dug for themselves.

FYI: Disney's stock price is currently $79.67 per share.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, October 27, 2023 6:30 AM

super hero genre

and Bad Boys 4 in 2024?

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, October 27, 2023 11:12 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
super hero genre

and Bad Boys 4 in 2024?

LOL

Good to start the morning off with a laugh. Thanks for that.

In somewhat similar news though, it appears that they made a last minute change to The Marvels because they're so worried about how bad it's going to flop.

It was rumored and more or less confirmed now by "industry experts" that the CODA at the end of the credits is going to have the black Marvel lady shot off to an alternative universe where she wakes up in a hospital bed inside the X Mansion, where her alternate-universe mother and Kelsey Grammer's Beast are taking care of her.

They know this one is so bad that they're willing to blow the FOX X-Men crossover hint on it just to try to get people into the seats.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, October 27, 2023 11:30 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 16th):
The Wokecercist seems to be doing pretty well overseas with over $40 Million of its $85 Million current total. It's made 283% of its production budget back so far, which already means that it's a winner. It's sitting at 21st place now if my previous statements on the top 20 are correct.

I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.

Five Nights at Freddy's just banked $10,300,000 on Thursday night previews.

That's HUGE for a horror movie. Hell, in 2023, that's pretty damn big for nearly every genre. Without diving deep into it, my guess would be that only about 5 movies did better on preview night so far this year. (Guardians 3, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Super Mario Bros., Miles Morales 2).

Let's look at Horror movies in the top 20 so far in 2023 and see how they did on preview night.

M3GAN: $2,750,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/M3GAN#tab=box-office

Talk To Me: $1,245,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Talk-To-Me-(2022-United-Kingdom)#tab
=box-office

Insidious: The Red Door: $5,000,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Insidious-The-Red-Door-(2023)#tab=bo
x-office

Evil Dead Rise: $2,500,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Evil-Dead-Rise-(2023)#tab=box-office

The Nun II: $3,100,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Nun-II-The-(2023)#tab=box-office

Scream VI: $5,700,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Scream-VI-(2023)#tab=box-office

The Pope's Exorcist: $850,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Popes-Exorcist-The-(2023)#tab=box-of
fice

The Blackening: $900,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Blackening-The-(2023)#tab=box-office

Exorcist: Believer: $2,850,000

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Exorcist-Believer-The-(2023)#tab=box
-office

It's not even a contest. In a year that Horror reigns supreme, the top 2 horror movies below it just barely made enough on preview night combined to beat FNAF. Scream VI made $5.7 Million and Insidious made $5 Million.

At $25 Million production budget, it won't be topping the list for Worldwide Gross vs. Production Budget when it's done, but that is quite a bit cheaper than the $30 Million spent for Wokecercist, the $35 Million spent on Scream VI and the $38 Million spent on The Nun II.

If this one does well with audiences and gets great word of mouth, I could see it making more money Worldwide than The Marvels does on less than 1/10th the production budget.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, October 27, 2023 8:04 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
If this one does well with audiences and gets great word of mouth, I could see it making more money Worldwide than The Marvels does on less than 1/10th the production budget.

Yup. Bruce is quite impressed with the preview numbers for FNAF as well.

His original model had FNAF making around $30 to $35 Million this weekend, but with those previews he's now predicting a $60 Million floor for the weekend ($20 Million more than other outlets were expecting before these Thursday night previews).

He thinks it could make as much as $85 Million this weekend and it could possibly end up with the 6th highest October weekend opening in history.

Disney/Marvel has to be pissing themselves right about now. Didn't the latest Opening Weekend Predictions to that movie drop to something like only $40 Million now on that $275 to $300 Million production budget?

If FNAF actually makes $85 Million domestically on Opening Weekend, that's around half of what some people are predicting that The Marvels will do Worldwide by the time it's out of the theaters.

Reminder: FNAF's production budget was only $25 Million.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, October 27, 2023 9:28 PM

Captain Marvel 2-ish 'The Marvels'

Brie Larson’s ‘The Marvels’ Predicted To Have One Of If Not The Worst Box Office Grosses For The Marvel Cinematic Universe Ever
https://boundingintocomics.com/2023/10/13/brie-larsons-the-marvels-pre
dicted-to-have-one-of-if-not-the-worst-box-office-grosses-for-the-marvel-cinematic-universe-ever/

Marvel 2024 movies delay: Deadpool 3 and Captain America 4 release dates 'set to move'
https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1826972/Marvel-2024-movi
es-delay-Deadpool-3-Captain-America-4

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 28, 2023 12:19 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Captain Marvel 2-ish 'The Marvels'

Brie Larson’s ‘The Marvels’ Predicted To Have One Of If Not The Worst Box Office Grosses For The Marvel Cinematic Universe Ever
https://boundingintocomics.com/2023/10/13/brie-larsons-the-marvels-pre
dicted-to-have-one-of-if-not-the-worst-box-office-grosses-for-the-marvel-cinematic-universe-ever/

Marvel 2024 movies delay: Deadpool 3 and Captain America 4 release dates 'set to move'
https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1826972/Marvel-2024-movi
es-delay-Deadpool-3-Captain-America-4

Looks like they're moving Snow White back to 2025 too.

I hear they're even using CGI to put dwarves back in.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 28, 2023 12:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
If this one does well with audiences and gets great word of mouth, I could see it making more money Worldwide than The Marvels does on less than 1/10th the production budget.

Yup. Bruce is quite impressed with the preview numbers for FNAF as well.

His original model had FNAF making around $30 to $35 Million this weekend, but with those previews he's now predicting a $60 Million floor for the weekend ($20 Million more than other outlets were expecting before these Thursday night previews).

He thinks it could make as much as $85 Million this weekend and it could possibly end up with the 6th highest October weekend opening in history.

Disney/Marvel has to be pissing themselves right about now. Didn't the latest Opening Weekend Predictions to that movie drop to something like only $40 Million now on that $275 to $300 Million production budget?

If FNAF actually makes $85 Million domestically on Opening Weekend, that's around half of what some people are predicting that The Marvels will do Worldwide by the time it's out of the theaters.

Reminder: FNAF's production budget was only $25 Million.

After getting $10.4 Million in previews, FNAF got another $29,160,000 on Opening Night Friday. I'm struggling to remember the last movie that made this much on a Friday night.

But then I remembered there's a list for that:

Biggest Friday at the Domestic Box Office: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/bes
t-performance-by-day-of-the-week/friday

It appears that they do include the Thursday previews in this Friday number. The reason that FNAF doesn't appear on it yet is because we're still in the Projection stage. FNAF would place 70th on this list below Black Widow and above Spider-Man (2002) and Joker.

So far in 2023, it's made more on Friday than Taylor Swift: Eras Tour and The Little Mermaid out of the top 100.

Here's a list of movies that made more on Opening Friday than FNAF in 2023:

1. Barbie - $70,503,178
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $54,804,460
3. Miles Morales 2 - $$51,808,109
4. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. - $48,103,839
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $46,431,851

That's it.

So yeah, it's been a while since a movie made as much as FNAF on a Friday night. Barbie's opening night was the last time that happened.

So it's almost halfway there to the $85 Million high-end prediction that Bruce put out last night since Thursday Preview night counts for that. I think it easily has another $40 Million for Saturday and Sunday with $29 Million+ on Friday night. $85 Million shouldn't be too hard.

If it makes $85 Million, it won't make the Top 100 list of opening weekends of all time, but it would have only fallen short $6 Million it needed to make a showing there.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/wee
kend/any

The only movies that would have beat it at $85 Million in 2023 are:

1. Barbie - $162,022,044 (Production Budget: $145 Million)

2. The Super Mario Bros Movie - $146,361,865 (Production Budget: $100 Million)

3. Miles Morales 2 - $120,663,589 (Production Budget: $100 Million)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. - $118,414,021 (Production Budget: $250 Million)

5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $106,109,650 (Production Budget: $200 Million)

6. The Little Mermaid - $95,578,040 (Production Budget: $250 Million)

7. Barbie (2nd weekend) - $93,011,602

8. Taylor Swift: Eras Tour - $92,804,678

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2nd weekend) - $92,347,190

At only $25 Million to produce though, it crushes all of them except for the Eras Tour Concert Thing that isn't being counted against actual movies. $85 Million would be a 340% return on the Production Budget on Opening Weekend Domestic alone without even accounting for the International take. The closest any of the above 2023 releases got to that was The Super Mario Bros. Movie with 146%.

Critics appear to hate it with 29% at Rotten Tomatoes, but it's got an 89% verified audience score so far. (Top Critics give it only 21%, and all audience give it a 90%).

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/five_nights_at_freddys

I think it's quite possible it makes $90 to $95 Million. That's not a prediction, but I'm saying based off of Thursday and Friday numbers coupled with the high audience score that it is in the realm of possibility. I'd call that one a coin flip. If it somehow manages that, it will make the all-time top 100 Opening Weekend list.

EDITED TO ADD: This could be a heavily front-loaded movie though. There is a large fanbase for the videogame franchise that may have already seen it. It might get a huge drop instead of a normal Friday/Saturday/Sunday pattern. I just found out that they decided to stream it at the same time too...

So, that's both good and bad news for FNAF. It managed an amazing opening night despite already being available to stream at home, but because it can be streamed at home that's going to hurt its longer-term chances. I have no idea why they would do that knowing full well this one was going to make money in the theaters.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 28, 2023 5:51 PM

A delay is usually for bad reasons and it costs money. That delayed version of SJW Snow White will probably be a huge trainwreck

The 40 Biggest Box Office Bombs of the Last Decade
https://247wallst.com/special-report/2023/10/28/biggest-box-office-bom
bs-last-decade/

Brie Larson forgot she worked with Scarlett Johansson

To Shoehorn a role, its somewhat like recasting or how Ted McGinley was called "the patron saint of shark-jumping", it seems Marvel wanted a Wonder-Woman-ish role to replace Thor, Hulk and others and why Stunt Casting Hurts Movies

Rumour: Brie Larson no longer wants to play Captain Marvel because of nasty fans
https://www.gamereactor.eu/rumour-brie-larson-no-longer-wants-to-play-
captain-marvel-because-of-nasty-fans-1317573/

Captain Marvel Star Brie Larson Reportedly Wants To Quit MCU Over Toxic Fans
https://www.screengeek.net/2023/10/19/brie-larson-captain-marvel-mcu-e
xit/

Five Nights At Freddy’s: Will the horror movie get a sequel?
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/five-nights
-at-freddys-will-the-horror-movie-get-a-sequel/articleshow/104786093.cms

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 28, 2023 9:58 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Five Nights At Freddy’s: Will the horror movie get a sequel?

You know that's right.

You don't even need to read an article to know that a movie that makes nearly 350% of its production budget opening weekend without even adding international money is getting a sequel.

There were at least half a dozen games. Unless they managed to do something really stupid and put all the plots into one movie, they've got plenty of material to work with.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, October 28, 2023 11:28 PM

Had to double check my figures.

ClownfishTV erroneously claimed that FNAF made more on Friday night than Super Mario Bros. did on opening night.

I mean... yeah. I guess. But you can't say that without mentioning the huge technicality. Super Mario opened on a Wednesday night. There was no preview night at all. And even though it was out for two straight days already it made $54.8 Million on Friday compared to FNAF's Friday take of $29.1 Million. Super Mario Bro's 2nd weekend also has about a 50% or 60% chance of beating FNAF's opening weekend too.

They apparently haven't figured out what JSF pointed out many months back, that Thursday night previews are rolled into Friday's numbers, because he kept saying that FNAF made almost $40 Million in one night.

I like Clownfish, but come on guys... You run an entertainment news website and profit off of it. This should be a no-brainer for you at this point.

I don't know where they got their info, but they mentioned that some predictions have FNAF making over $150 Million globally this weekend. That would be 6 times the Production Budget if true.

Amazing, especially considering that if you're paying for Peacock you can just stream it at home right now.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, October 30, 2023 11:32 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 21st):
...

Impossible. It will not avoid massive financial losses. The $35 to $40 Million Domestic Opening Weekend that the one honest article about this movie being a flop predicted isn't even what happened. As you can see in earlier posts, this movie is lucky if it grosses $24 to $25 Million Domestic.
...

And then, Variety further runs defense for Killers by stating the following:

Quote:
For what it’s worth, “Flower Moon” is tracking ahead of the opening for Scorsese’s last Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration “The Wolf of Wall Street.” That sprawling comedy debuted with $18 million in late December, but rode the holiday season and awards buzz to a $116 million finish in North America.

The Wolf on Wall Street made $18,410,067 on opening weekend, to be exact. It also went on to make $116,949,183 Domestically, and $389,816,136 Worldwide by the end of its run.

This was back in 2013, a FULL 10 YEARS AGO.

With inflation, $18,410,067 in 2023 is $24,323,871.41 today. $116,949,183 in 2013 is $154,516,379 today. $389,816,136 in 2023 is $515,035,473.00 today.

The Wolf on Wall Street was a half a BILLION Dollar movie in 2023 dollars.

BEST CASE SCENARIO, Killers matches on opening weekend what The Wolf on Wall Street made when inflation is taken into account.

Oh... and what was the Production Budget for Wolf? $100,000,000. $132,122,666, actually, when taking inflation into account. Still INSANELY expensive for what it was, but back then a studio only needed to do 2 times the budget to break even, and with $515 Million worldwide, it made $254 Million more than the $264 Million break even point.

And Wolf did MASSIVE numbers internationally. The $116,949,183 it made in the US was only 30% of the Worldwide take. 70% of this movies income was outside of the US!

There is no way that is happening with Killers internationally. The Wolf on Wall Street resonated so well with people around the world because of the disproportionate power that Wall Street has over the world economy, and we were just finally overcoming the last huge market meltdown and worldwide recession by 2013.

Nobody outside of the US is going to give a single shit about an FBI drama that takes place in Oklahoma in 1920. It's not as if nobody is going to go see it. I'm sure that life-long Scorsese and DiCaprio fans outside of the US are happy to see another collab between them. But we're talking maybe 25%-30% of its worldwide take being international for Killers when compared to Wolf's 70%.

Killers makes $9 Million 2nd weekend for a 61% drop.

Total Domestic: $40,679,000
Total International: $12,464,960
Total Worldwide: $53,143,960

International Box Office is now 23.5% of Worldwide Box Office.

It appears that unless Killers grows some amazing legs, I might owe an apology to Blue Beetle and Shazam II.

Here was my post on August 27th in the Blue Beetle Failure Thread after the 2nd weekend wrapped up:

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Blue Beetle makes only $82 Million worldwide in first 10 days.

After 10 days, The Flash had already made $87 Million in the US alone. And where Blue Beetle has a 56% Domestic vs. 44% International take, The Flash ended its run with a 40% Domestic vs 60% International take, so it's likely The Flash had already made over $200 Million of its $268 Million total by day 10.

After 10 Days, Shazam II came just $400k shy of where Blue Beetle stands Domestically right now. The only difference is that Shazam II has the numbers flipped and ended with a 44% Domestic vs. 56% International take.

Both Blue Beetle and Shazam II were at least $29 Million ahead of where Killers is right now at this day in their run.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, October 30, 2023 11:56 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 28th) RE: Five Nights at Freddy's:

...

So it's almost halfway there to the $85 Million high-end prediction that Bruce put out last night since Thursday Preview night counts for that. I think it easily has another $40 Million for Saturday and Sunday with $29 Million+ on Friday night. $85 Million shouldn't be too hard.

...

I think it's quite possible it makes $90 to $95 Million. That's not a prediction, but I'm saying based off of Thursday and Friday numbers coupled with the high audience score that it is in the realm of possibility. I'd call that one a coin flip. If it somehow manages that, it will make the all-time top 100 Opening Weekend list.

EDITED TO ADD: This could be a heavily front-loaded movie though. There is a large fanbase for the videogame franchise that may have already seen it. It might get a huge drop instead of a normal Friday/Saturday/Sunday pattern. I just found out that they decided to stream it at the same time too...

So, that's both good and bad news for FNAF. It managed an amazing opening night despite already being available to stream at home, but because it can be streamed at home that's going to hurt its longer-term chances. I have no idea why they would do that knowing full well this one was going to make money in the theaters.

I think I got sucked up in the hype a little too much on this one with my own late predictions. Although I never said it was going to make more than $80 Million for sure, I did say it could make as much as $95 Million after Friday night's numbers came out.

Unless they lowballed the projection by $2 Million, I didn't even get the $80 Million right. It looks like they're saying $78 Million for opening weekend.

It did $24,250,000 on Saturday, but took a huge plunge by Sunday and only made $14,010,000. That $10+ Million drop on Sunday was hugely unexpected. I would have assumed at least $19 Million if I saw that $24,250,000 for Saturday (but they put Saturday/Sunday predictions out at the same time).

Oh well...

Still a MASSIVE success, and my disappointment in how the final domestic numbers turned out can't take away from that.

It made another $52,578,000 internationally for an incredible $130,578,000 worldwide. (In only 3 days FNAF has managed to make over $1 Million more than Blue Beetle did in 70 days, and just $1.5 Million less than Shazam II took 49 days to make).

On a $25 Million budget, FNAF has already made 524% its production budget back on Weekend 1!

It's been a while since I kept up with my opening weekend numbers here, but as of the last time I posted them on 9/5/23 in the Abysmal Hollywood Thread, that puts FNAF in a solid 1st place for WW Gross vs. PB above Insidious: The Red Door which got 400% even on Opening Weekend.

As I stated before though, especially with this thing available on streaming from day one, I don't imagine this isn't quite heavily front-loaded and I don't expect it to have the longevity of other flicks that top our list for overall WW Gross vs. Production Budget. In just 3 days it's at 12th place on the current list here (that I haven't updated since 9/24). If I had updated it, I'd guess it's probably around 14th place in reality right now. I could see it easily jumping up to 8th place by the end of next weekend though. It would only need to make another $62 Million worldwide to do that. (Caveat: There may be one or two movies higher on that list that I have yet to update which would make that not true, but I'm basing it off the 769% it would need to beat Evil Dead Rise for 8th place on the list right now)

Plus, a lot of those movies made their money during the summer when kids were off school. Even post Halloween I could see people still in the spirit of going to see this next weekend and giving it a good 2nd weekend, but when you can just stream it at home and it's getting cold out I think there's going to be a larger than normal dropoff here. The only thing it really has going for it moving forward is the last few "blockbusters" of 2023 don't have very good predictions at the box office.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, October 30, 2023 3:09 PM

I'm at some out of the way place so I don't know how relevant this is to worldwide or US Box Office. Perhaps this also could be discussed in the 'Horror Movies' thread but the past days I drove some dozens upon dozens of miles maybe 100 km for those in 'metric'. A lot cinema which had shut during lockdown seemed to be moving again, maybe rebranded or Re-Open, in a lot of cinema that Five Nights at Freddy's seem to be completely sold out, seating full

I'm not sure if it will be a hit but FNaF shows money can be made.

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, October 30, 2023 3:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
I'm at some out of the way place so I don't know how relevant this is to worldwide or US Box Office. Perhaps this also could be discussed in the 'Horror Movies' thread but the past days I drove some dozens upon dozens of miles maybe 100 km for those in 'metric'. A lot cinema which had shut during lockdown seemed to be moving again, maybe rebranded or Re-Open, in a lot of cinema that Five Nights at Freddy's seem to be completely sold out, seating full

I'm not sure if it will be a hit but FNaF shows money can be made.

You've said you don't know if it's going to be a hit like 3 or 4 times already.

I don't understand why you keep saying that. It was undeniably a hit before it opened on Friday with that $10 Million + in previews on Thursday.

As I mentioned in the last post, it's by far the #1 movie of 2023 in terms of Worldwide Opening Weekend vs. Production Budget, having already made 524% of its Production Budget worldwide in only 3 days. #2 on that list is Insidious: The Red Door with a very admirable 400%.

If FNAF didn't make a single dime more and was ripped out of theaters worldwide immediately, it's already a hit.

With 2.5x RoT it's already made the studio $68.5 Million after production, marketing and theater takes in only 3 days. That $68.5 Million alone is nearly 3 times what they spent producing it.

In only 3 days it's already 12th on the list of the most profitable movies in 2023 vs. Production Budget. (If I updated our list today, FNAF probably hits #14 instead of #12).

And since I last updated the list, there were only 22 movies in the top 100 Worldwide that had made any money with the 2.5x RoT. (That number is probably closer to around 28 now if I were to update the list today).

Being in the top 15 out of all of them after only 3 days this late in the year is pretty damn amazing.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, October 30, 2023 8:12 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I think I got sucked up in the hype a little too much on this one with my own late predictions. Although I never said it was going to make more than $80 Million for sure, I did say it could make as much as $95 Million after Friday night's numbers came out.

Unless they lowballed the projection by $2 Million, I didn't even get the $80 Million right. It looks like they're saying $78 Million for opening weekend.

Actual numbers finally came in and the projections were indeed $2 Million low.

$80,001,720 Domestic for the first weekend.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=bo
x-office

I still got it.

That puts FNAF's first weekend Worldwide take at 532% of the Production Budget. According to my list that would put it in 11th place so far for the year, but I know that's not right because The Nun II is quite a bit higher than 531% since 9/25.

I'll seriously have to get around to updating that list soon. No reason to wait until the end of the year to do it one last time. It's too outdated to give actual comparisons to anymore, and we've got some major flops starting their rollouts in less than 2 weeks.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 5:35 AM

the news articles seem to confirm your predictions,
they are slowly calling it a hit

perhaps they are still in a hissy fit, angry about some twitter type tweet some guy did 10 years ago

Will There Be A ‘Five Nights At Freddy’s 2?’

https://uproxx.com/movies/five-nights-at-freddys-2-sequel/

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 5:55 AM

2023 the story of indie Horror film, low budget hits, Taylor Swift concert thing, the Oppenheimer Drama Documentary, Barbie Doll and Video Game Adaptation.

I will ignore most critic reviews of this ‘Five Nights At Freddy’s’ film for now

There seems to have been a perverted political civil war with reviews on this movie because of something that happened a long time ago and something some person wrote or said long, long ago.

Also his voting history was leaked he might have voted for or supported Democrat... Tulsi Gabbard and... trigger word....TRUMP !

Respected Critics prove once again how worthless their opinions can be

the posh elite newspaper and website critics and movie fans unconnected and living in totally different worlds?

Five Nights At Freddy's kills the competition in its box office debut by shattering several opening weekend records

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-12686737/Five-Nights-Fre
ddys-kills-competition-box-office-debut-shattering-opening-weekend-records.html

Reddit perverts decided to ban the topic

Quote:

Mod Team has decided to ban Five Nights at Freddy's as a topic. While the core idea was beloved by many, the politics surrounding its creator were not.

https://old.reddit.com/r/deadbydaylight/comments/tm1pam/fnaf_is_now_ba
nned_as_a_topic/

not the only sub forum that banned it

Reddit however made a bunch of perverts Mods and Admin, they allowed tranny weirdos who connect to pedophiles and British political creeps to 'moderate' and edit and censor reddit posts

a number of transexual School Shooters have also come from the online reddit community.

Reddit Fires Aimee Knight As Controversial Hire Sees Hundreds of Subreddits Go Private
https://www.newsweek.com/reddit-aimee-knight-challenor-fired-hundreds-
subreddits-private-protest-1578657

Cawthon became a trending topic on Twitter when his publicly available political donations were shared on the website. Except for one donation to Democratic Party representative Tulsi Gabbard, all of Cawthon's donations were to Republican Party politicians, including U.S. President Donald Trump.

He claimed that he had been doxed and had received threats of violence and home invasion after his donations were publicized.

Even before this movie came out the game seems to have been popular or a cult hit and

fivenightsatfreddys seems to have online community of fans

https://www.kotaku.com.au/2018/06/ultimate-custom-night-will-keep-five
-nights-at-freddys-fans-on-their-toes/
,
https://www.filmboards.com/board/p/3451985/
,
https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/507089-five-nights-at-freddy-s/discus
s/653df8b950733c00e249c50a
,
https://www.deviantart.com/orderly-lemon/art/Five-Nights-at-Freddy-s-B
oard-Game-494984413
,
https://steamcommunity.com/app/332800/screenshots/
,
https://fnaffr.weebly.com/blog/theory-1-five-nights-at-freddys-2-happe
ned-before-five-nights-at-freddys-1
,
https://www.relyonhorror.com/latest-news/five-nights-at-freddys-ar-spe
cial-delivery-enters-early-access-soon/
,
https://prideoscarw.blogspot.com/2015/02/5-nights-at-freeddys-this-one
-of-sraest.html
,
https://www.fanpop.com/clubs/five-nights-at-freddys/images/37637604/ti
tle/lets-photo
,
https://www.resetera.com/threads/five-nights-at-freddys-movie-first-of
ficial-posters-released.720013/

https://knowhere-mcu.proboards.com/thread/8343/nights-freddys-movie

https://www.tfw2005.com/boards/threads/five-nights-at-freddys-the-movi
e.1038821/

After being harassed online by strange transexuals and getting death threats by Loons that acted like WishiMay and ReaverFan, the creator of the franchise Cawthon announced his intention to step away from professional game development and appoint someone else to assume creative control of the franchise

The movie landscape is different. Cinema had changed although there are still hits like 'Barbie' and ' Spider-Man No Way Home' the overall trend moves away from movies that made hits the past 4-5 years of SJW woke or even the past 10 or 20-30 years.

Cash Talk $$ £ ¥ € $$ the movement of box office money

Some of the big hits have been
A patriot type of pro-America remake of TopGun
Low budget indie horror
Videogame to movie and VideoGame to tv stuff, which largely exist outside of Hollywood
A long documentary drama Oppenheimer
'Sound of Freedom' another subject critics hated
FNAF, the creator hated by a mob of weirdo transexuals on social media

2024 looks a bit weird, The Fall Guy, Argylle, Lisa Frankenstein, Madame Web, Deadpool 3, Planet of the Apes remade again, Ghost Busters again maybe more Marvel Disney and DC Warner Bros superhero comicbook flops

We are in a new era of cinema and I'm not sure what its called, video game influence? however the indie horror movie hits of the 1970s and Psycho 1960 material have returned.

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 12:11 PM

Halloween influence - old horror such as The Nun II are making money again, some Halloween film or Haunting in Venice can make money
The Nightmare Before Christmas is back and making some small money

Taylor Swift concert thing winning against Martin Scorsese Killers of the Flower Moon, however it made money as it takes second spot

https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/10/23/entertainment-lifestyle/swift-b
ests-scorsese-at-box-office-but-killers-of-the-flower-moon-opens-strong/1916035

https://sg.style.yahoo.com/taylor-swift-eras-tour-returns-150945203.ht
ml

https://bartlesvilleradio.com/pages/news/398272023/killers-of-the-flow
er-moonopens-in-second-place-over-the-weekend

Five Nights At Freddy’s jump-scares Taylor and Scorsese at the weekend box office

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/five-nights-freddy-jump-scares-205
800431.html

‘Five Nights at Freddy’s’ notches $130 million global debut

https://www.indianagazette.com/entertainment/five-nights-at-freddy-s-n
otches-130-million-global-debut/article_17a7fe03-a8c3-5b8a-99e6-f729111c7e94.html

Video game adaptation will be the profit winner?

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 2:51 PM

The creator of the franchise was disliked but News websites are starting to accept the fact and math of profit

Deadline reported 20 Million others say it was higher

20 Million or 25 Million

Quote:
Presales have grown to a crazy amount on this $20M production since we last reported (some saying well north of $11M), with some exhibitors projecting a tentpole-type opening of $85M.

https://web.archive.org/web/20231025000921/https://deadline.com/2023/1
0/five-nights-at-freddys-box-office-preview-1235581874/

or maybe it is 20 Million plus 5 Million for distribution and marketing?

Quote:
Five Nights At Freddy's Budget Is Reportedly $25.1 Million

According to Louisiana Economic Development, the Five Nights at Freddy's movie cost a little over $25.1 million to produce. The most significant factor in the higher cost was reportedly the animatronics, which were created by Jim Henson Studios as noted in Jason Blum's interview with Fortune. While his salary is unknown, the inclusion of a bigger star like Josh Hutcherson may have had some impact on the overall budget as well, as many of Blumhouse's most profitable horror hits star newcomers or lower-level actors.

https://screenrant.com/five-nights-at-freddys-budget-box-office-predic
tion/

animatronics refers to mechatronic puppets. They are a part robot, part puppet the modern variant of the automaton

Steven Spielberg and Jim Henson have been noted pioneers in using animatronics

NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 4:04 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Cawthon became a trending topic on Twitter when his publicly available political donations were shared on the website. Except for one donation to Democratic Party representative Tulsi Gabbard, all of Cawthon's donations were to Republican Party politicians, including U.S. President Donald Trump.

He claimed that he had been doxed and had received threats of violence and home invasion after his donations were publicized.

Yeah. I wrote about this a LONG time back when it happened in the RWED somewhere. I'd probably never be able to dig it up now though.

That's got to be at least part of what these critic ratings and the articles are about now. Most of those sites are run and staffed by a bunch of blue haired TDS cultists.

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Taylor Swift concert thing winning against Martin Scorsese Killers of the Flower Moon, however it made money as it takes second spot

https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/10/23/entertainment-lifestyle/swift-b
ests-scorsese-at-box-office-but-killers-of-the-flower-moon-opens-strong/1916035

Killers hasn't "made" any money at all and it never will.

I'm in the process of updating all of the movie charts since the last update in late September. One major thing to note is that even after 2 weekends in the box office, Killers of the Flower Moon still has the lowest Worldwide Gross vs. Production Budget of ALL of the movies released this year in the US on the Top 100 Worldwide Box Office.

In fact, it's still several percent below what will ultimately be the biggest loser of the year, Nicholas Cage's Renfield.

Quote:
Video game adaptation will be the profit winner?

FNAF, on the very opposite end of the spectrum has by far the best WWBO vs. PB on Opening Weekend of any movie to come out in 2023. It didn't have ANY competition. I don't think it's going to come close to topping the list for WWBO vs. PB for the full runs for movies (both because it was available on streaming at Peacock from day one and I think the built-in audience was heavily front-loaded for FNAF), but it should land a spot easily in the top 10 along with other horror flicks like M3GAN, Talk To Me, Insidious: The Red Door and The Nun II.

Quote:

or maybe it is 20 Million plus 5 Million for distribution and marketing?

I'm never quite sure unless Bruce puts a figure on the-numbers.com.

If Bruce didn't put a number on it, I like to err on the side of caution when creating these lists. Even though I did see both the $20 and $25 Million figure, just so nobody can claim that I'm playing favorites I've gone with the $25 Million Production Budget figure until somebody proves otherwise.

JSF didn't like that when I chose the higher number for Sound of Freedom either, but I've also done it with Barbie and Blue Beetle. Both when WB came out and admitted that Barbie was $45 Million higher than they originally admitted it was, and when WB came out and tried to claim that Blue Beetle was $16 Million less than they originally claimed it cost after they realized how big a flop it was going to be.

Sure. I'll easily add money to a production budget if a company comes out and admits that it cost more once it's very clear that the movie was a smash hit. But if they're going to try to tell you that a flop they put out cost less than they said it did a month earlier they're going to need to bring some receipts before I make that change. To this date, Bruce still has Blue Beetle's PB at $120 Million, so it would appear that nobody presented him with any information that made him lower that budget to $104 Million either.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 5:04 PM

THE NUMBERS FROM 09/24/2023

2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (MOVIES)
By % of WORLDWIDE GROSS / PRODUCTION BUDGET
Up to date as of 09/24/2023

00000000000000000000| PRODUCTION0| WORLDWIDE0000|% OVER|2.0x RoT000000|2.5x RoT000000|FINAL|
Rnk|MOVIE TITLE00000| BUDGET00000| GROSS00000000|BUDGET|PROFIT/LOSS000|PROFIT/LOSS000|DATE0|STUDIO000|

001|M3GAN 0000000000|0$12,000,000|00$181,013,217|1,508%|00$157,013,217|00$151,013,217|03/16|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002|Talk To Me000000|00$4,500,000|000$65,767,857|1,462%|000$56,767,857|000$54,517,857|00000|A24000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003|Sound of Freedom|0$14,500,000|00$210,799,928|1,454%|00$181,799,928|00$174,549,857|00000|ANGEL STU|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004|Super Mario Bros|$100,000,000|$1,360,027,222|1,360%|$1,160,027,222|$1,110,027,222|07/07|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005|Insidious: TRD00|0$16,000,000|00$186,258,928|1,164%|00$154,258,928|00$146,258,928|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006|Barbie0000000000|$145,000,000|$1,427,451,529|00984%|$1,137,451,529|$1,064,951,529|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007|Oppenheimer00000|$100,000,000|00$926,456,425|00926%|00$726,456,425|00$676,456,425|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008|Evil Dead Rise00|0$19,000,000|00$146,017,671|00769%|00$108,017,671|00$108,017,671|06/15|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009|Spider-Man: AtSV|$100,000,000|00$686,613,624|00687%|00$486,613,624|00$436,613,624|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010|Missing000000000|00$7,000,000|000$45,100,756|00644%|000$31,100,756|000$27,600,756|03/30|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011|The Nun II000000|0$38,500,000|00$204,372,130|00531%|00$127,372,130|00$108,122,130|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012|Scream VI0000000|0$35,000,000|00$168,834,132|00482%|000$98,834,132|000$81,334,132|05/04|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013|Mummies000000000|0$12,000,000|000$53,172,225|00443%|000$29,172,225|000$23,172,225|04/10|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014|John Wick: Ch. 4|$100,000,000|00$432,249,673|00432%|00$232,249,673|00$182,249,673|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015|The Pope's Exorc|0$18,000,000|000$72,913,467|00405%|000$36,913,467|000$27,913,467|06/29|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016|The Blackening00|00$5,000,000|000$18,563,767|00371%|0000$8,563,767|0000$6,063,767|06/29|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017|Creed III0000000|0$75,000,000|00$274,448,615|00366%|00$124,448,615|000$86,948,615|05/18|UNITED AR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018|Jesus Revolution|0$15,000,000|000$53,101,427|00354%|000$23,101,427|000$15,601,427|04/27|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019|Guardians: Vol 3|$250,000,000|00$845,468,744|00338%|00$345,468,744|00$220,468,744|08/10|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020|Meg 2:The Trench|$129,000,000|00$391,069,750|00303%|00$133,069,750|000$68,569,750|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021|Knock at t Cabin|0$20,000,000|000$54,712,735|00274%|000$14,712,735|0000$4,712,735|04/20|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022|Cocaine Bear0000|0$35,000,000|000$89,301,183|00255%|000$19,301,183|0000$1,801,183|04/20|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023|TMNT: Mutant May|0$70,000,000|00$172,661,793|00247%|000$32,661,793|0000$2,338,207|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
024|Elemental0000000|$200,000,000|00$481,879,982|00241%|000$81,879,982|000$18,120,018|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025|The Boogeyman000|0$35,000,000|000$82,344,833|00235%|000$12,344,833|0000$5,155,167|07/27|20TH CENT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
026|Ant-Man & Wasp 2|$200,000,000|00$463,635,303|00232%|000$63,635,303|000$36,364,697|06/15|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027|The Lttl Mermaid|$250,000,000|00$569,146,430|00228%|000$69,146,430|000$55,853,570|09/14|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028|Transformers: Ri|$195,000,000|00$437,806,355|00225%|000$47,806,355|000$49,693,645|08/10|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
029|The Equalizer 30|0$70,000,000|00$148,688,684|00212%|0000$8,688,684|000$26,311,316|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
030|Fast X0000000000|$340,000,000|00$714,522,648|00210%|000$34,522,648|00$135,477,352|07/13|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
031|Asteroid City000|0$25,000,000|000$51,677,251|00207%|0000$1,677,251|000$10,822,749|09/07|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
032|MI70000000000000|$290,000,000|00$567,535,383|00196%|000$12,464,617|00$157,464,617|00000|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
033|Plane00000000000|0$25,000,000|000$47,855,350|00191%|0000$2,144,650|000$14,644,650|03/02|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
034|No Hard Feelings|0$45,000,000|000$83,453,541|00185%|0000$6,546,459|000$29,046,459|08/13|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
035|Gran Turismo0000|0$60,000,000|00$110,460,364|00184%|0000$9,539,636|000$39,539,636|00000|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
036|My Big Fat GW 30|0$18,000,000|000$31,109,600|00173%|0000$4,890,400|000$13,890,400|00000|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
037|Book Club 200000|0$20,000,000|000$28,909,994|00145%|000$11,090,006|000$21,090,006|06/22|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
038|80 For Brady0000|0$28,000,000|000$40,266,090|00144%|000$15,733,910|000$29,733,910|03/23|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
039|Magic Mike 30000|0$40,000,000|000$56,270,502|00141%|000$23,729,498|000$43,729,498|06/01|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
040|Dungeons & Drago|$150,000,000|00$207,582,323|00138%|000$92,417,677|00$167,417,677|06/01|PARAMOUNT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
041|The Flash0000000|$200,000,000|00$267,993,474|00134%|00$132,006,526|00$232,006,526|08/17|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
042|AIR0000000000000|0$70,000,000|000$89,448,266|00128%|000$50,551,734|000$85,551,734|06/01|AMAZON ST|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
043|Indiana Jones 50|$300,000,000|00$381,466,675|00127%|00$218,533,325|00$368,533,325|09/14|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
044|6500000000000000|0$45,000,000|000$56,241,027|00125%|000$33,758,973|000$56,258,973|05/11|SONY PICT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
045|A Haunt in Venic|0$60,000,000|000$71,555,511|00119%|000$48,444,489|000$78,444,489|00000|20TH CENT|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
046|Shazam II0000000|$125,000,000|00$132,192,362|00106%|00$117,807,638|00$180,307,638|05/04|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
047|Blue Beetle00000|$120,000,000|00$122,917,883|00102%|00$117,082,117|00$177,082,117|00000|WARNER BR|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
048|Strays0000000000|0$46,000,000|000$34,607,535|00075%|000$57,392,465|000$80,392,465|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
049|Are U There God?|0$30,000,000|000$21,498,192|00072%|000$38,501,808|000$53,501,808|06/15|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
050|Haunted Mansion0|$157,750,000|00$107,813,643|00068%|00$207,686,357|00$286,561,357|00000|DISNEY000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
051|Ruby Gillman0000|0$70,000,000|000$43,716,515|00062%|000$96,283,485|00$131,283,485|08/17|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
052|Operation Fortun|0$50,000,000|000$27,868,441|00056%|000$72,131,559|000$97,131,559|03/23|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
053|LastV ot Demeter|0$45,000,000|000$20,308,349|00045%|000$69,691,651|000$92,191,651|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
054|The Covenant0000|0$55,000,000|000$20,377,413|00037%|000$89,622,587|00$117,122,587|06/01|MGM000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
055|Renfield00000000|0$86,203,077|000$26,726,500|00031%|00$145,679,654|00$188,781,193|05/18|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
056|Expend4bles00000|$100,000,000|000$21,197,649|00021%|00$178,802,351|00$228,802,351|00000|LIONSGATE|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
057|Champions0000000|0$??,???,???|000$18,852,343|000??%|000$??,???,???|000$??,???,???|05/04|FOCUS FEA|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (STUDIOS)
By PROFIT ACCORDING TO 2.0x Rule of Thumb (RoT)
Up to date as of 09/10/2023

00000000000000000000000| COMBINED0000000| COMBINED00000000| %GROSS0|0000000000000000|0000000000000000|
00000000000000000000000| PRODUCTION00000| WORLDWIDE0000000| OVER000| 2.0x RoT0000000| 2.5x RoT0000000|
Rnk | STUDIO00000000000| BUDGETS00000000| GROSS00000000000| BUDGET0| PROFIT/LOSS0000| PROFIT/LOSS0000|

001 | UNIVERSAL00000000|000$854,203,077 |00$3,451,392,329 |000404% |0$1,742,986,175 |0$1,315,884,637 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002 | WARNER BROS.00000|000$828,500,000 |00$2,801,457,526 |000338% |0$1,144,457,526 |000$730,207,526 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003 | SONY PICTURES0000|000$361,000,000 |00$1,389,730,391 |000385% |000$667,730,391 |000$487,230,391 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004 | ANGEL STUDIOS0000|0000$14,500,000 |0000$210,799,928 |01,454% |000$181,799,928 |000$174,549,928 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005 | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,357,750,000 |00$2,849,410,777 |000210% |000$133,910,777 |000$544,964,223 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006 | UNITED ARTISTS000|0000$75,000,000 |0000$274,448,615 |000366% |000$124,448,615 |0000$86,948,615 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007 | PARAMOUNT PICTURE|000$768,000,000 |00$1,594,686,076 |000208% |0000$58,686,076 |000$325,313,924 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008 | A2400000000000000|00000$4,500,000 |00000$65,767,857 |01,462% |0000$56,767,857 |0000$54,517,857 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009 | FOCUS FEATURES000|0000$63,000,000 |0000$130,549,188 |000207% |0000$14,303,155 |0000$45,803,155 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010 | LIONSGATE00000000|000$325,000,000 |0000$622,334,499 |000191% |0000$27,665,501 |000$190,165,501 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011 | 20TH CENTURY STUD|0000$95,000,000 |0000$153,900,344 |000162% |0000$36,099,656 |0000$83,599,656 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 | AMAZON STUDIOS000|0000$70,000,000 |00000$89,448,266 |000128% |0000$50,551,734 |0000$85,551,734 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013 | MGM00000000000000|0000$55,000,000 |00000$20,377,413 |000037% |0000$89,622,587 |000$117,122,587 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000 | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$4,871,453,077 |0$13,654,303,209 |000280% |0$3,892,544,712 |0$1,456,818,174 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | WALT DISNEY000000|0$1,357,750,000 |00$2,849,410,777 |000210% |000$133,910,777 |000$544,964,223 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | Peter Pan&W Bdgt0|000$170,000,000 |00000000000000$0 |0000000 |000$170,000,000 |000$170,000,000 |
00000000000000000000000-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ | W. DISNEY REVISED|0$1,527,750,000 |00$2,849,410,777 |000187% |0000$36,089,223 |000$714,964,223 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REV | HOLLYWOOD TOTALS:|0$5,041,453,077 |0$13,654,303,209 |000271% |0$3,722,544,712 |0$1,286,818,174 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 8:03 PM

The new tables are up and finished.

Notable happenings since last update:

1. FNAF is in 12th place after only 3 days in the box office for total WW Gross vs. Production Budget, and 1st place for Opening Weekend WW Gross vs. Production Budget.

2. Killers of the Flower Moon is in last place (61st) for total WW Gross vs. Production Budget after two weekends, and ranked 53rd place for Opening Weekend WW Gross vs. Production Budget.

3. Killers of the Flower Moon is single-handedly responsible for dropping Paramount Pictures from 7th place in the studio rankings all the way down to 13th (last) place. Only Disney now is doing worse than Paramount when you add back the $170 Million Production Budget wasted on Peter Pan & Wendy.

4. Equalizer 3 is going to wrap up its run safely in the black with at least 265% of its Production Budget grossed.

5. After next weekend, FNAF will land somwhere in the bottom half of the Top 10, pushing out Miles Morales 2. When this happens, not one single movie in the Top 10 will be a comic book property and 6 of the Top 10 will be Horror movies. 10 of the Top 20 are currently Horror movies already, and Miles Morales is the only Comic Book movie in the Top 20.

6. The Creator, Expend4bles, A Haunting in Venice, Mission Impossible 7 and Killers of the Flower Moon are bona fide flops with no hope of ever reaching 200% of their Production Budgets.

7. Hollywood, as a whole, has only made 268% of its combined Production Budget back on the Top 100 movies of 2023, barely eeking past the 2.5x RoT.

8. Even with 2.5x RoT considered, Universal has made a monsterous $1.45 BILLION, Warner Bros. has made $800 MILLION, Sony Pictures has made $525 MILLION. If it weren't for these three as well as Angel Studios, A24 and United Artists, Hollywood would be underwater as of November this year.

9. With only $1.2 BILLION in total profit out of the $14.5 BILLION Hollywood has made so far this year, it's very unlikely that Hollywood will actually post a loss for the year overall. But there are a few major flops still coming down the pike. Hollywood almost certainly won't even be able to claim that they've made over $1 BILLION in profits in 2023 despite having grossed well over $15 BILLION in box office receipts.

Time to start trimming those budgets.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 11:30 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
2. Killers of the Flower Moon is in last place (61st) for total WW Gross vs. Production Budget after two weekends, and ranked 53rd place for Opening Weekend WW Gross vs. Production Budget.

3. Killers of the Flower Moon is single-handedly responsible for dropping Paramount Pictures from 7th place in the studio rankings all the way down to 13th (last) place. Only Disney now is doing worse than Paramount when you add back the $170 Million Production Budget wasted on Peter Pan & Wendy.

Cope...

The real reason why Killers Of The Flower Moon was a flop at the box office

https://ustoday.news/the-real-reason-why-killers-of-the-flower-moon-wa
s-a-flop-at-the-box-office/

But at least they're finally going to admit it.

They knew it was a flop after opening night. They didn't admit it until Day 12.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 2:05 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

The real reason why Killers Of The Flower Moon was a flop at the box office

The real reason is that it is a Martin Scorsese movie. Here are his last 5 movies:

Killers of the Flower Moon (2023) vs.
The Irishman (2019) vs.
Silence (2016) vs.
The Wolf of Wall Street (2013) vs.
Hugo (2011)

His latest movie is doing better than any other Scorsese movie except The Wolf of Wall Street:

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Killers
-of-the-Flower-Moon-(2023)/Irishman-The-(2019)/Silence-(2016)/Wolf-of-Wall-Street-The/Hugo#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Kind of funny that The Irishman cost $159,000,000 but doesn't even register on the graph of ticket sales for Scorsese's most recent 5 movies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Irishman#Financing_and_budget

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 5:51 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

The real reason why Killers Of The Flower Moon was a flop at the box office
The real reason is that it is a Martin Scorsese movie. Here are his last 5 movies:

Killers of the Flower Moon (2023) vs.
The Irishman (2019) vs.
Silence (2016) vs.
The Wolf of Wall Street (2013) vs.
Hugo (2011)

His latest movie is doing better than any other Scorsese movie except The Wolf of Wall Street:

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Killers
-of-the-Flower-Moon-(2023)/Irishman-The-(2019)/Silence-(2016)/Wolf-of-Wall-Street-The/Hugo#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Kind of funny that The Irishman cost $159,000,000 but doesn't even register on the graph of ticket sales for Scorsese's most recent 5 movies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Irishman#Financing_and_budget

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

So what is Scorsese? Like the Uwe Boll of Oscarbait porn?

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 7:10 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

So what is Scorsese? Like the Uwe Boll of Oscarbait porn?

His last 5 movies' subject matter was bad guys. He does gangsters (from the gangsters' viewpoint), stock-marketeers cheating their customers out of millions, husbands murdering their wives for millions, apostate Catholic priests denying Christ, adults abandoning children (Hugo 2011), etc.

Audiences stay away from such "films", but critics love 'em because Scorsese's movies aren't Superhero movies.

I'm slow to realize that Serenity's subject matter was also bad guys. That is probably why audiences stayed away just like with Scorsese's movies, but critics, again, loved Serenity because it wasn't a Superhero movie.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Serenity#tab=box-office
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/serenity/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 7:55 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

So what is Scorsese? Like the Uwe Boll of Oscarbait porn?
His last 5 movies' subject matter is bad guys. He does gangsters (from the gangsters' viewpoint), stock-marketeers cheating their customers out of millions, husbands murdering their wives for millions, apostate Catholic priests denying Christ, adults abandoning children (Hugo 2011), etc.

Audiences stay away from such "films", but critics love 'em because Scorsese's movies aren't Superhero movies.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Yeah. But up until the 2nd half of Blue Beetle's run, the critics loved Superhero movies and called you a IstaPhobe if you didn't go out and see them.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not hating on Scorsese. I've only seen a handful of his filmography, but there wasn't one I've seen that I didn't like. I think the last one I saw was Gangs of New York, so I can't say how his more recent flicks are compared to the ones he made in the 80's and 90's. His films are without any question full of substance compared to anything coming out of Marvel or DC.

But the budgets are just out of control. I had no idea The Irishman cost $159 Million to make until you made that post. WTF for? It's like he's laundering money to give to his friends like Adam Sandler did with any of his movies from the last 20 years since none of that money actually ends up on screen.

I just find the whole Hollywood apparatus quite humorous.

For weeks now we've seen the critics hating on Five Nights at Freddy's, to the point that Jaynez was still saying that he didn't know if it was going to be successful or not well after the weekend money had been tallied up and proved that it already had the largest Opening Weekend ROI of any movie that has been released in 2023 by far, but even though it was clear from Preview Thursday on the 19th of October that Killers was going to be a massive flop, the articles are only now coming out and calling a flop a flop nearly 2 weeks later.

Again... I have little doubt that Killers is objectively a much better movie than FNAF is. But the blatant favoritism and how this entire industry is reported on is just disgusting.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 8:10 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

But the budgets are just out of control. I had no idea The Irishman cost $159 Million to make until you made that post. WTF for?

Again... I have little doubt that Killers is objectively a much better movie than FNAF is. But the blatant favoritism and how this entire industry is reported on is just disgusting.

The $159 million was to use computers to make the actors look young in the early parts of their story.

This is kind of important to explain why so many movies crash and burn:
What screenwriter is famous for saying "nobody knows anything"? William Goldman
The title comes from a William Goldman quote from his book "Adventures in the Screen Trade", where he says that "the single most important fact, perhaps, of the entire movie industry" is that 'nobody knows anything'.

Everybody reviewing movies is either guessing what the audience wants (and writing reviews to match their guesses at how an audience will react) or they are truthfully telling you what they like and dislike about a movie.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 10:10 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

But the budgets are just out of control. I had no idea The Irishman cost $159 Million to make until you made that post. WTF for?

Again... I have little doubt that Killers is objectively a much better movie than FNAF is. But the blatant favoritism and how this entire industry is reported on is just disgusting.
The $159 million was to use computers to make the actors look young in the early parts of their story.

mmmmmm... maybe? Part of it. That's a huge bill. And after Killers comes out at practically the same cost after you factor in the huge inflation in the last 4 years and puts nothing on screen that makes people say "I know where that $200 Million went", I'm not really buying that.

Good on Scorsese for calling Marvel movies exactly what they are, but on the other hand, none of his movies have any business spending Disney/Marvel budgets either.

Quote:
This is kind of important to explain why so many movies crash and burn:
What screenwriter is famous for saying "nobody knows anything"? William Goldman
The title comes from a William Goldman quote from his book "Adventures in the Screen Trade", where he says that "the single most important fact, perhaps, of the entire movie industry" is that 'nobody knows anything'.

Yeah. Can't argue that logic. It's what's paralyzed Hollywood into putting out repeat trash for so long. And that goes back way further than when Woke became a thing.

Quote:
Everybody reviewing movies is either guessing what the audience wants (and writing reviews to match their guesses at how an audience will react) or they are truthfully telling you what they like and dislike about a movie.

I believe the 2nd part of that statement is true, but I don't believe the first is. You're discounting the power of Access Media. These people are paid to give good reviews and they're shut out of future review opportunities if they don't give good reviews, just like in the video game industry. They're also paid to call people names who don't want to go see the trash that they regularly churn out too.

There has not been very much at all put in theaters in recent years that the audience wants. And if you look at the average Critic vs. Audience scores long enough, that becomes very apparent.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, November 2, 2023 12:19 AM

‘Killers Of The Flower Moon’ Is Sadly Another 2023 Big-Budget Flop

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2023/10/30/killers-of-the-flow
er-moon-is-sadly-another-2023-big-budget-flop/?sh=7cc3db5919ee

Quote:
Even if the film manages miraculous holds every week and weekend from now on, at percentages on par with Oppenheimer’s historic and record-shattering performance for a biopic, Killers of the Flower Moon would still be on course for a roughly $200 million final cume at best.

Seriously. Stop simping for this film. You're just shooting your credibility to shit.

It lost 60% on the 2nd weekend, and it's lost more than 50% on average so far this week.

It just made $1.2 Million on Cheap Seat Tuesday when FNAF made $5 Million, and that's coming off a 2nd weekend where it only eeked out $9 Million Domestic while adding only $8 Million international for the entire previous week. It has zero overlapping movies as competition right now with 5 of the daily top 10 being horror flicks, 2 of them being kids movies, one being a sci-fi movie and the last one being an Angel Studios flick that' isn't going to gross 1/10th of what Sound of Freedom did.

This movie is dead. Though you correctly label it a flop even if it makes $200 Million, but it will never make $200 Million. Absolute best case scenario it makes $150 Million worldwide, and I suspect that after next weekend's numbers clear that $150 Million will be viewed as an impossibility.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, November 2, 2023 1:23 PM

I just realized right now that I neglected to add Saw X to the list. I thought there was another horror movie making the top of the charts, but for whatever reason I forgot to add this one. I guess I should make a list of the top movies that come out in between updates if they're not going to be weekly anymore.

That being said, I've got to update the Notable Happenings list that I posted 2 days ago to account for it...

Notable happenings since last update:

1. FNAF is in 13th place after only 3 days in the box office for total WW Gross vs. Production Budget, and 1st place for Opening Weekend WW Gross vs. Production Budget.

2. Killers of the Flower Moon is in last place (62st) for total WW Gross vs. Production Budget after two weekends, and ranked 54th place for Opening Weekend WW Gross vs. Production Budget.

3. Killers of the Flower Moon is single-handedly responsible for dropping Paramount Pictures from 7th place in the studio rankings all the way down to 13th (last) place. Only Disney now is doing worse than Paramount when you add back the $170 Million Production Budget wasted on Peter Pan & Wendy.

4. Equalizer 3 is going to wrap up its run safely in the black with at least 265% of its Production Budget grossed.

Quote:
5. After next weekend, FNAF will land somwhere in the bottom half of the Top 10, pushing out Miles Morales 2. When this happens, not one single movie in the Top 10 will be a comic book property and 6 of the Top 10 will be Horror movies. 10 of the Top 20 are currently Horror movies already, and Miles Morales is the only Comic Book movie in the Top 20.

This one is now completely incorrect. Miles Morales 2 was already pushed out of the Top 10 because Saw X now sits at 9th place with 719% and The Nun II at 10th place with 690% and Miles Morales at 11th place with 683%.

6 of the Top 10 Movies of 2023 are now Horror Movies. 11 of the Top 20 are Horror Movies. Zero of the Top 10 are Comic Book Movies. Miles Morales 2 is the only Comic Book Movie in the Top 20.

6. The Creator, Expend4bles, A Haunting in Venice, Mission Impossible 7 and Killers of the Flower Moon are bona fide flops with no hope of ever reaching 200% of their Production Budgets.

Quote:
7. Hollywood, as a whole, has only made 268% of its combined Production Budget back on the Top 100 movies of 2023, barely eeking past the 2.5x RoT.

8. Even with 2.5x RoT considered, Universal has made a monsterous $1.45 BILLION, Warner Bros. has made $800 MILLION, Sony Pictures has made $525 MILLION. If it weren't for these three as well as Angel Studios, A24 and United Artists, Hollywood would be underwater as of November this year.

9. With only $1.2 BILLION in total profit out of the $14.5 BILLION Hollywood has made so far this year, it's very unlikely that Hollywood will actually post a loss for the year overall. But there are a few major flops still coming down the pike. Hollywood almost certainly won't even be able to claim that they've made over $1 BILLION in profits in 2023 despite having grossed well over $15 BILLION in box office receipts.

Time to start trimming those budgets.

These figures may have changed just slightly with the additional $13 Million budget and $93.5 Million worldwide take of Saw X, but it's pretty incidental.

I didn't add those figures to the studio totals for now. They will be included in the next major update which will probably be in late November or early December. For now, you can just add $13 Million to both Lionsgate and Hollywood Budget total numbers and $93.5 Million to both Lionsgate and Hollywood total numbers.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, November 2, 2023 1:39 PM

Also, when adding just the Domestic take from Monday and Tuesday this week, FNAF rises from 531% to 590%. That doesn't bring it above 13th place yet since it needs to do more than Missing's 644% for another spot on the chart. It won't get that until probably Friday night. My guess it goes into the weekend around 620% to 625%.

After the Weekend Domestic comes in, it should be somewhere in the area of 780% (8th place). Add in the international take and it should end this weekend somewhere above 880% (still 8th place).

Barbie has 944% and Oppenheimer has 994% above that. I think it has a pretty good chance of displacing both of them once all the numbers come in on Monday the 13th and join the 1,000% Club. (Which would require it to make an additional $103 Million Worldwide in the next 11 days).

Way too far out to call anything beyond this though, especially with the fact that it was streaming on Day 1. I think it's still going to have a strong 2nd weekend because it grossed over $5 Million on Cheap Seat Tuesday, blowing every other movie in theaters out of the water, but I can't say how the longevity of this flick is. If it's not good beyond Weekend 2, my prediction that it beats Barbie and Oppenheimer by the end of Weekend 3 isn't going to happen. It likely beats them before it's out of theaters anyhow, but if it doesn't do it by the end of Weekend 3 that's probably as far as it makes it on the list.

My only guess if it does beat Barbie and Oppenheimer on Weekend 3 is that it should probably be able to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place by making over 1,164% ($292 Million total) of its production budget by the end of its run. Beyond that it would need to make 1,361% if it were to take 4th place from the Super Mario Bros. Movie, and that's probably too tall an order. It would require FNAF to gross $341 Million Worldwide to beat SMB. Because it's streaming, it's got a limited fanbase, Halloween is over and it's getting cold outside I don't think the chances of it making that much is in the cards.

It would be pretty cool seeing 3 of the Top 4 in 2023 being Horror Movies though.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, November 3, 2023 12:30 AM

FNAF expands 114 theaters this weekend for the most theaters of the week. Killers expands 154 theaters and is just 3 behind FNAF.

FNAF made a disappointing $2.7M on Wednesday. I figured it would keep up the $4M pace from Monday through the week.

It hits 600% with Wednesday's take, but probably won't hit that 620 to 625% I thought it would going into the weekend now. Probably only 612%.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, November 3, 2023 11:56 AM

Way too early to get Bruce's predictions since Thursday's numbers haven't even come in yet, but BoxOfficePro doesn't have a good feeling about FNAF's 2nd weekend chances saying this...

Quote:
In the early days of its release, Five Nights has already proven its expected front-loaded nature. Free availability on Peacock’s streaming service won’t help matters on that end, either, as spooky season winds down following Halloween on Tuesday. The film’s 28 percent critics’ rating on Rotten Tomatoes likely won’t motivate adults or stragglers to take a chance on the film.

These were all points that I brought up earlier, but until I saw how poorly it did on Wednesday I didn't think that they would really factor in until after Weekend 2.

BoxOfficePro is predicting only $25 Million Domestic this weekend now, which would be a pretty terrible 69% drop, and I can't really argue with that, although I don't think the drop will be quite that severe.

If Thursday's numbers are low like Wednesday's were and BOP is correct in their prediction, FNAF will wrap up the weekend with around $119-$120 Million Domestic. So around 712% of its Production Budget Worldwide. If the International drop were to mirror that 69% weekend prediction, that would add only another $18 Million on top of the $58 Million it's already gotten. So after internationals were added to the total we'd be at around $196 Million worldwide, or around 784% of the Production Budget.

Quote:
Also, when adding just the Domestic take from Monday and Tuesday this week, FNAF rises from 531% to 590%. That doesn't bring it above 13th place yet since it needs to do more than Missing's 644% for another spot on the chart. It won't get that until probably Friday night. My guess it goes into the weekend around 620% to 625%.

After the Weekend Domestic comes in, it should be somewhere in the area of 780% (8th place). Add in the international take and it should end this weekend somewhere above 880% (still 8th place).

So if BoxOfficePro is right, that puts the real numbers just about 100% behind my prediction from yesterday before I saw the low Wednesday numbers.

784% is still enough to bring FNAF to 8th place, leapfrogging Evil Dead Rise, The Nun II and Saw X, but if a second weekend drop that hard is really how this plays out, especially on a weekend where there's basically zero competition, FNAF isn't ever really going to recover from it.

We'd have a situation where the first weekend take was 531%, and then the next 7 days only added 253%. The likely numbers through the 3rd week would be an additional 101%, then 40% through the 4th week, then 16% through the 5th week.

At that point, with 5 weeks and severely diminished returns, it would still be 3% below Oppenheimer for 7th place. It would get another 6% on Week 6 and take 7th place from Oppenheimer, but that would be as high as it ever made it on the charts, with no way of getting another 47% to displace Barbie.

But again, with it being available on streaming and the weather getting cold on top of the fact that this movie might not have very good wide-audience appeal, the normal average drops can't be applied with confidence.

Still though, even if it doesn't join the 1,000% club, 900% and a 6th or 7th place finish for the year is pretty damn good for a movie that critics went out of their way to hate on while being available to watch at home since day one. It would rank 4th among the 2023 Horror releases while grossing more than all of them did and only being so low because of it's $25 Million budget. Talk to Me had a budget of only $4.5 Million. M3GAN's budget was $12 Million and Insidious' budget was $16 Million.

Also, it would be the 2nd highest grossing Horror movie of 2023, only behind The Nun II's $265 Million current take... a feat that it should accomplish before the beginning of Weekend 3 if it doesn't succeed in that by Sunday.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, November 4, 2023 11:31 AM

LOL... Wow....

FNAF just got clobbered on Friday. It didn't even gross $200k more than it did on Cheap Seat Tuesday, for a reported -86% drop on Friday 2. The actual drop was only -81.4% when you discount Thursday Preview numbers from Friday 1's numbers, but this is a death sentence for the movie. I don't recall EVER seeing a drop this steep from Weekend 1 to Weekend 2 on a movie since I started tracking them. (Even Blue Beetle only dropped -74%/-61%, and Shazam II dropped -80%/-71% on their second Fridays).

This changes predictions on anything I've stated up until now (other than the fact that I stated all of the variables in place that could have lead to a steep drop in performance). I always said I didn't think this one would have the longevity to catapult it to the top of the 2023 list, but I honestly didn't think we'd see the steep decline until after Weekend 2 after it performed so well on Monday and Tuesday. That happened quick.

At this point, I don't see how it isn't still going to end up cracking a spot in the Top 10, but 900% or more is an impossibility. The only question left is how high up the list it will make it.

With The Nun II really slowing down (with only $18k on Thursday, vs. $2.1 Million for FNAF), The Nun II shouldn't rise much above the current 690% it has in 10th place. 59% shouldn't be too difficult for FNAF to still achieve, even under these circumstances. Even with this massive drop in attendance, it increased 20% yesterday, and we've still got Saturday, Sunday and we'll find out what the International drop was on Monday or Tuesday. It's a coin flip if it hits the Top 10 by then, but even if interest falls off quite a bit more after this weekend it should be so close to 691% that it doesn't matter.

719% for Saw X shouldn't be too steep of a hill to climb, even though Saw X still made $162.5k on Thursday. I can't imagine interest is going to fall off so much that FNAF doesn't take 9th place by next weekend.

Evil Dead rise has 769%. Can FNAF beat that? Honestly, after seeing this huge negative turnaround in only a few days I can't really answer that. I don't even want to make a prediction on that one until the internationals come in on Monday or Tuesday.

In any event, 8th place on the list is the highest this one is going to go now. It would need 944% to beat Oppenheimer and 994% to beat Barbie, and there's no possible chance for it to even crack 900% now. I don't think it even sees 800%.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, November 4, 2023 11:44 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
‘Killers Of The Flower Moon’ Is Sadly Another 2023 Big-Budget Flop

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2023/10/30/killers-of-the-flow
er-moon-is-sadly-another-2023-big-budget-flop/?sh=7cc3db5919ee

Quote:
Even if the film manages miraculous holds every week and weekend from now on, at percentages on par with Oppenheimer’s historic and record-shattering performance for a biopic, Killers of the Flower Moon would still be on course for a roughly $200 million final cume at best.

Seriously. Stop simping for this film. You're just shooting your credibility to shit.

It lost 60% on the 2nd weekend, and it's lost more than 50% on average so far this week.

It just made $1.2 Million on Cheap Seat Tuesday when FNAF made $5 Million, and that's coming off a 2nd weekend where it only eeked out $9 Million Domestic while adding only $8 Million international for the entire previous week. It has zero overlapping movies as competition right now with 5 of the daily top 10 being horror flicks, 2 of them being kids movies, one being a sci-fi movie and the last one being an Angel Studios flick that' isn't going to gross 1/10th of what Sound of Freedom did.

This movie is dead. Though you correctly label it a flop even if it makes $200 Million, but it will never make $200 Million. Absolute best case scenario it makes $150 Million worldwide, and I suspect that after next weekend's numbers clear that $150 Million will be viewed as an impossibility.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

I'm actually quite surprised at how much this has made internationally. The first weekend looked to almost mirror my prediction for Domestic to International share, but after a steep drop of -60% for the 2nd weekend in the US, the drop internationally either wasn't that large or it had opened a week late in numerous other territories to make up for it. Right now, it's $47 Million Domestic and $56 Million International (or 45.4% Domestic / 54.6% International). The international figures are actually better than that because there have been 5 days of Domestic numbers added that won't be added for the International numbers until Monday or Tuesday.

This is still going to be a collisal flop, but it has already pulled in $104 Million worldwide without taking this weeks Internationals into account.

I think it's pretty safe to say that it will beat Shazam II's $132 Million, so it's going to do better than I thought it would thanks to the international audience.

There's no way it's hitting $200 Million like that quoted article said it might, but it probably does somewhere around that $150 Million I stated in reply, give or take about $5 Million.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 12:12 AM

Well, well, well...

I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.

Despite a -76% fall in the US, the International Box Office just virtually doubled this week to $103.5 Million and a worldwide total of $217 Million!

Last weekend the US take was $80 Million to the international take of $52.5 Million. Now the totals are $113.6 Million in the US and $103.5 Million Internationally.

Quote:
Also, when adding just the Domestic take from Monday and Tuesday this week, FNAF rises from 531% to 590%. That doesn't bring it above 13th place yet since it needs to do more than Missing's 644% for another spot on the chart. It won't get that until probably Friday night. My guess it goes into the weekend around 620% to 625%.

I lowered that prediction after Wednesdays numbers came in to 612% and was still way off. FNAF entered weekend 2 at only 588%. Apparently some of my math must have been fuzzy since obviously it wasn't at 590% after Tuesday. I don't know what happened there.

Quote:
After the Weekend Domestic comes in, it should be somewhere in the area of 780% (8th place). Add in the international take and it should end this weekend somewhere above 880% (still 8th place).

After the $19.4 Domestic Weekend came in, it was only at 664% and knowing how low it was going to be after Friday, I said the movie was mortally wounded and wouldn't have a chance of hitting 900%, with the possibility of not even hitting 800%.

But now, all of the sudden, with an additional $50,933,000 International we find ourselves at 868% of the Production Budget Worldwide, which still puts us at 8th place like I said FNAF would be after the weekend, but instead of just eeking that one out it's above Evil Dead Rise by 99%.

Oppenheimer is still in play. Perhaps even Barbie too. It all depends on the International mood for FNAF on Weekend 3, since I don't imagine it making more than $10 to $15 Million more by next Sunday here in the states. If it got $12 Million by then, without International Numbers, it would be at 916%, which is only 28% behind Oppenheimer.

It would only need another $8 Million International on top of that next weekend to match Oppenheimer, and at that point it would only be $12 Million behind Barbie.

I wonder why the International numbers are still so high? Perhaps Peacock is only streaming FNAF in the US now?

If that's the case, it's quite possible that FNAF overtakes Barbie by next weekend because of the international take. It only needs $32 Million to do that. And if it were to get $12 Million US in the next 7 days, and the $20 Million it would still need internationally would be a 60% drop from last weekend.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, November 6, 2023 1:44 PM